The Hockey PDOcast - Teams Taking Next Steps, Celebrini's Future, and Other Mailbag Questions

Episode Date: March 21, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Ryan Lambert to answer mailbag questions about rebuilding teams taking next steps towards competitiveness, Macklin Celebrini's upside and future, and extreme cases of players or teams that confuse expected models. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Progressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Vilippovich, and joining me is my good buddy Ryan Lambert, R.L. What's going on, man? What's up? It's been a while since we did one of these. I know. And we're going to do a mailbag, and it's been a while since I've done one of those as well,

so I figured it'll be good to just combine it to. And we're going to take some listener questions here, see how far we got, have some fun with it. If you want to get involved in future editions of this, Invite link is in the show notes of the Discord. Easiest way to pop in questions. So get in there. And I guarantee you'll find yourself spending more and more time chatting with people who

listen to this show and just want to nerd out about hockey. So it's a really good spot. And with that out of the way, let's dive into the questions and see how many we can get through. Let's start with this one. Carmen asks, what should the ducks be looking to do this summer? I feel like they've been penciled in as a team ready to take a leap with their talent, but you look at the on-ice product they put out there, and it's still incredibly poor.

I'm very skeptical. It's possible for them to do enough where they have even an okay chance at competing for a wild card next year. So the Ducks, as we recall, it seems like almost another lifetime ago now, but start of the year winning a bunch of clothes come from behind games.

We're being led by Pavel Minktikov, Mason McTavish, really fun performances. Everyone was like, all right, maybe this is the year the Ducks finally start to show some of that potential. You look now, the 30th in the league in point percentage, 30th and goal differential, depending on how they finish these final 13 games, they have a chance

to match last year's results in terms of points and goal differential where they were 32nd and both and it was a miserable season. And yet it feels like the vibes are slightly different because we're seeing Minchikov and Leo Carlson and some of these guys still produce, but the results haven't reflected it yet. So in your opinion, what should the ducks be doing here in terms of both the short and the medium term view? And kind of how do you take this next step from being like this team that's accumulating a bunch of young talent to actually finally starting to win some games. Yeah, I think the big issue for them is that they have been doing kind of the thing that I

hate from teams that aren't particularly competitive, which is, well, you know what? Let's try to accelerate this rebuild. Let's go out and sign a bunch of veterans who aren't very good to big money contracts and hope that gets us to at least pretending we can compete for the playoffs. I think, you know, that that's a kind of a loser mentality. And they need to not do that this summer. That would be my big suggestion to them is maybe try to work a trade. I mean, you got all these young pieces that you're supposed to be excited about.

Try to work a trade for like a younger, better. roster player to accelerate the rebuild if you want to do that. But yeah, just don't give like whatever. I don't want to like pick on Radco Gudis, I guess. Like he's been fine for them. But don't give like $4 million to a Radco Gudis type who's in his mid-30s. Yeah. I actually think Good has been good particularly with the right shot defense element.

Like I'm pretty sure they could turn around and get assuming they wanted to get a nice little return from. The Alex Chlorid one is obviously a more difficult one to justify, especially because of the term. I'm with you in the sense that I'd like to see them kind of consolidate and actually get meaningful pieces as opposed to just sort of doing the same thing over and over again. At the same time, though,

you look and they have like $49 million in commitments next year, which leaves them in the high 30s in cap space. And that's going to be the case for, I think, at least two more years. Once you finally start getting into that 26th, 27 range when guys like Mitchikov and Carlson and Zellweger and even Zegrois if he's still there are up for new deals then all of a sudden those guys are going to become more expensive so you essentially have two more years here and out to just spend as much money as you want it'd be nice to see them do that in a constructive way where you leverage that into bringing in players who

can legitimately help right now beyond just being veteran leaders off the ice and all that stuff right So I'm not sure that that probably won't come in the UFA market, especially when you look at this year's class. So I'm with you, the trade market in terms of like moving some of this stuff to get a player who's in their prime right now that can be legitimately good. Those obviously generally aren't very available. But we do see guys come up every once in a while, and especially with the types of futures the ducks have in terms of prospects and picks. I'm pretty sure they could swing whatever deal they wanted to, assuming they were interested in doing so. So I'm with you on that. Yeah, it's it's tough because, you know, they're kind of, you know, I mentioned, or I guess I alluded to the, the senators and the Red Wings earlier, right?

And the ducks are in a very similar situation to those two teams in that they can try to accelerate the rebuild all they want. How do you break into that top three or even top four in that division? That's a very, it's a tough task, you know, like you, you, you. can just pencil in Vancouver, Edmonton, and Vegas next year is the top three in some order. And then you're like, okay, well, now we've got to add to compete for a playoff spot that we're certainly not guaranteed to get. So it's really difficult for a lot of these teams that are trying to stop rebuilding. I don't see what the path forward is for them, really. Yeah, the easiest thing to do in the NHL assuming you have full Biden and sort of the green light

from your ownership group is to just tear everything down, right? Because essentially you just trade everyone away. Yeah, of course. You suck for a couple years. You get a bunch of high picks and you become the franchise that everyone is excited about because you've got all these guys who are tall people's draft boards at the time. The tougher part is sort of taking that next step in terms of actually becoming good and executing the right moves to do so.

Now, I think we'd agree like progression isn't necessarily linear, right? like you don't necessarily, you don't go from being this bad to all of a sudden, like, pretty good to a playoff team to a Stanley Cup contender. I think sometimes, especially with these young players coming into their own, it can be very rapid acceleration if that happens. And I do think they have the foundational pieces, right? Like what you're seeing from Leo Carlson this season, despite the injuries and the load management at the start of the year,

when he's been on the ice, he's like a 51% shot an expected goal share player at 5-15 on a miserably bad team. and for a 19 year old center to be doing that, that's a foundational piece. What we've seen from Paolo Minchikov in terms of the way he plays, that's foundational to me. And those are the toughest pieces to get.

Now it's a matter of surrounding them with good players so that they're not on their own and that you're winning the other minutes as well. So a lot of workout ahead of them, but I still think the runway is pretty clear because of the flexibility to take some like big cuts here. It's just a matter of what they are and if they improved a difference maker, right?

rather than going out and spending a bunch on Alex Colorn. So we'll see. But I'm still, I can't quit the ducks, Ryan. I'm still so intrigued because I love so many of these young players. Yeah. And I mean,

they're going to add Cutter-Goti A in a couple of weeks, right? Like, that's one of the best college hockey players in terms of pure goal scoring that I've seen in a really long time. So a guy that can actually just like, oh, no, I'm going to teleport the puck into the net now. Have a good one.

Like, know how many guys there are out there like that, you know. Yeah, that and another top five pick and like a bunch of first seconds and thirds this year as well. So very intriguing stuff. Okay. Let's do, here's a question that I think is interesting to consider. So Kobe asks, seems like more and more people are picking up on the fact that Kail McCar is not having a year up to his standards despite his point totals. Yeah, for some reason he's still talked about in the Norris conversation as being part of a two horse race we couldn't use for the title. It'll be interesting to hear you guys talk about his season and what's going on with him right now.

It still feels like it's a year where he's going to be a Norris finalist because of points, reputation and general laziness amongst voters, just like when Victor Headman finished third in 2021, despite being injured and hurt all, hurt and bad all season. Guys like Dobson, Yossi, Forsling, Heiskin, and McAvoy all seem like much better candidates this year. So where are we at with Kil McCar? Because obviously, like, he's on pace right now for 22 goals and 96 points. over an 82 game season.

That sounds amazing. The overall numbers, when you look at them on the surface, look fine. When you dig a bit deeper, especially in his minutes without McKinnon, they're not quite as good. Just anecdotally, it seems like watching them, there's been fewer sort of like splashy highlight real plays than we're accustomed to in years past where he's still productive, but not necessarily in such a mesmerizing way. I think you could attribute that to health and being banged up, and I know he missed a bit of time. And so I think that makes sense.

Is it as simple as that or kind of where are you at with this, especially in the like we're talking about nitpicking here amongst the best players of the position, right? I think for 99% of NHL defenders, they would love to be having this season. But when you're talking about second or third or whatever in Norris Trophy voting, that's where you do have to sort of look at this stuff with a magnifying glass a little bit. Yeah, I, it's just really tough to say because like you said, this is still one. of the elite defenders in the league and

for him to just be like we're going oh I can't believe how not great he's been this year as like yeah he's still only like a top 20 defender in the league maybe even top 15 you know depending on I guess how you look at things but I just think a lot of it is that things have been slipping defensively a little bit for him

this year in particular and I don't know what I attribute that to. Like, you watch him and you're like, yeah, he's still Kel McCarer out there. But all the, this is where like the eye test and the underlying's diverge, right? Where you're like, yeah, but he just doesn't have that same zip, even though he looks like he does, most nights I feel like. So I guess like just, you know, like I said, looking at the stats, you go, well, the defense is the problem and according to,

uh, you know, evolving hockey's war stats. It looks like it's short handed is particularly a problem for him. Um, but I guess I'm not like enough of a systems guy to know like, and of course, if you look at what they do X,

Y and Z on the on the PK. That's, that's the real issue here. I have no idea. Yeah. What's interesting is that so if I want five, and I think the listeners sort of, pointed this out with him on the ice out there all situations like five one five all the total sample

53% shot share 54% high danger chances 53% expected goals 53% actual goals all that's well and good he's played 70% of those minutes with nathan mckinin in the other 30% those shares drop down to 47 45 47 and 40% goal share now yeah i think this is where we get into the conversation of like usage and context and how important that is and how we probably too recklessly brush that to the side and be like, oh, well, if you're a good player, you should still be winning these minutes regardless when the abs right now by design, and this is a good thing, this is what team should be doing, are giving Nathan McKinn in all of the offensive zone minutes. Like, he's got, I think, a hundred or more offensive zone draws at five on five this year

than any other forward in the league. Like, if they're out there in the offensive zone, they're like, hell yeah, go out there. really you're really good. Miko Ranjanon is really good too. You guys should try to score and they're doing that. And so that's all well and good. The issue is when he's not out there with them, previously it was with like Ryan Johansson.

And we've talked about how big of a black hole he was. Otherwise, it's defensive zone assignments with that Ross Colt and Miles Woodline. And so it makes sense that the numbers would drop off and it wouldn't quite look the same. Right. So I think that's a big thing. And when you combine that with health or however banged up he's been,

it makes a lot of sense. But more recently, he had that hatrick against the Red Wings. I believe he's the past 10 games or so. The numbers all look like they're bouncing back. So I think part of this is like a team thing in terms of the way they were using him when he's not out there with the top line. And part of that is just him getting right physically himself.

And so I'm not at all worried about him moving forward. But yeah, I think when you get into like there's been some really good defensive seasons this season beyond Quinn Hughes, even though it does feel like the Norris is wide open a little bit. But I also did want to push back on the idea that it's a two horse race because while the market has McCarra at second right now in betting odds, Quinn Hughes is minus 600 favorite, which is like an 85% implied probability. So I guess I'm pushing back on the notion that it's a two horse race

because it's basically Quinn Hughes versus the field and everyone is taking Quinn Hughes there. So where it gets interesting is when you go, I get Kail McCarver, some of the other names you mentioned. But yeah, I think it's fair to nitpick in that regard at the same time, though. I still think he's an absolute monster. And in the playoffs, he's going to do some really cool stuff. Yeah, the abs depth is kind of the big issue.

And like you say, in the playoffs, you should do some cool stuff, but at the same time, the playoffs is where, like, depth gets exposed a little bit. And it's crazy. I just pulled up their, like, just their team scoring page. And it's, you know, McKinnon, Ranton and McCar, one, two, three. And all those guys are north of 75 points. Nchuskins at 49 And then nobody else

They have two other guys Who are even at 40 Right? So like the drop off is so severe And You know like Drew Ann and and these guys like Oh yeah

If Kail McCarr is going to like prop up those guys Or the Colton line like you said Like if you're if you're like Oh yeah we need you to go out there And make Miles would look good it's going to be a tough draw even for even for Kailvacar it will be certainly

yeah I um I guess the reason why I do find this interesting though is and I think you hit it on the head there in terms of like the stuff off the puck and maybe defensive issues within the team context because you look at Cory Schneider's tracking of like all the micro stats with him with the puck and stuff he's still in like the hundredth percentile

right at the defense position and like every single thing involving moving the puck or setting others up or carrying it and stuff like that. Yet the results themselves are dropping off a little bit. I think that's where you get into like what he's doing visibly when he has the puck first, the team concept of what's happening in other situations. So I think that's notable. And I just wanted to shout out because the names were listed here.

And one of the names that did pop up was Gus Foresling. And on a show recently, I said a real testament to whether you're a puck knower or not is if you have a vote and you wind up giving Gus Foresling a Norris finalist bid this season. And I stand by that. The more I think of it, the more I watch and play, the more I look at his numbers. Like, they've given up 26 even strength goals with him on the ice this season in 1,200 minutes. It's absolutely obscene what he's doing. I think Dom has him as a top 20 guy in terms of toughest defensive assignments this year.

And they're just absolutely dominating with him on the ice. And I think that's that's going to be an interesting one where we've come so far with voters actually valuing this stuff at the same time. I think he's not even top 30 in defense scoring this season. And so I'm sure there's voters out there that still think that like Aaron Eckblad and Brandon Montor, they're talking to defensemen without realizing that it's actually Gus Forsling because they're not paying attention to this stuff. And so he probably won't get the love he deserves. But man, Forzling is right there with all these guys. Yeah. And I mean, Eckblad and Montour also missed so much time, right?

That, like, I think the reason that people think that is going into this season, you would have said, yeah, Montfort and Ekblad, sure. But, of course, they missed a bunch of time at the beginning of the year. And Forzling was like, okay, you're the number one guy kind of by default. And he was like, no problem, boss. I'm going to go out there. I'm going to do unbelievably well. And so what happened is over the course of the season, they've just been like, Like, yeah, I can't really justify taking him off the tough assignments and the top pairing and all that.

So that's why that's happening. Like Montour actually averages more ice time per game when he's in the lineup. But, you know, he also missed 15 games or whatever. So like that's why Foresling is, is, you know, deserves to get that kind of love. I was going to say he's going to get that kind of love. I don't like you say, I don't know if he will. He should. Yeah.

Yeah, he's just been so good this year. But guys like that typically, you know, fly under the radar because he does it in a much more subtle way. Like even with Montour, like when he's at his best, it's so visibly perceptible, right? Like, yeah. He's flying around. He's like throwing the body. He's shooting a ton. Like he's just so his fingerprints are all over everything.

Whereas forzing is much more like behind the shadows, like just making sure everything is in the right position and setting up everyone, everyone up for success. And that's a much tougher thing to quantify unless you actually take a bigger picture view of it. All right. Yep. Let's do one more question here before the break. Andrew says, I love hockey, but baseball feels like it's five to 10 years ahead of it analytically. In baseball, when teams or players consistently underperform or overperform their expected models, analysts attempt to tweak the models to capture that. is it possible that a team like the Rangers

simply doesn't fit current hockey models in some way as opposed to just getting lucky over and over again or having great goaltending? Now, I think this is an interesting one. I think this would have applied much more in previous seasons to this Rangers team and we're going to get into that here

because I think this year, although there's a lot of metrics depending on what you look at that suggests that they're a very good team, the three points behind Boston with a game in hand for the president's trophy. So obviously they're having our, remarkable season. But I think this is an interesting conversation for us because there certainly are kind of outlier teams like this. And we've highlighted the Rangers as one in the past that

continue to define success despite traditional underlying metrics, especially shot shares and expected goals here. So what do you think about this and Andrew's question about it? So I mean, like you said, like year after year, it feels like they're getting lucky. And, you know, if you just look at the numbers and obviously they have a great goalie. I don't know that I think they're getting lucky. I think that they score a ton on the power play, you know, again, over the last like three or four years. And at some point, you just have to go, well, that's a repeatable skill for them.

You look at the talent level on their top power play unit. And you just have to think, okay, those guys are just going to score a bunch of goals on the man advantage. It's that simple. And when you combine that with the fact. that again, like they have elite players at five on five as well, their problem has always been depth issues, right? Like when those top guys are off the ice, they get killed.

And I think that's, you know, I haven't really broken it down in a while. So like really dig into their underlying numbers. I just kind of take for granted at this point. The depth isn't going to be very good. The top guys are going to do all the stuff that they always do. and the goal tending for the most part is going to be there. Obviously, Shistercans have been a lot more up and down this year.

And Jonathan Quick, you want to talk about getting lucky. Jonathan Quick being like 940 for a couple of weeks here and there, has been what kept them in that, like, top of the East race. Yeah. So that's where I'm at with the record.

What's interesting with them is natural, like if you just look at natural static stats, they certainly don't, like they paint them into like getting lucky. like this season, there's 16th in 515 shot shared 22nd and Hyde Andrew Chan's share 24th, in expected goals share behind a team like the coyotes. And you're looking at that and then you point out that there are three points out of the president's trophy race and you're like, how is that possible?

Even though that's just 515 and you mentioned the power play success. Support logic has them, eighth offensively unexpected goals, 10th defensively in expected goals against. And both those are kind of in line with the actual goals being scored. and then they're six on the power play and fifth on the penalty kill. And so I think what they're doing is very clear this year. If anything, they've become more aggressive under Peter Lavillette in becoming like a rush team and trying to attack that way than they did previously. But still a lot of like high danger passing leading to these chances.

And you mentioned the depth. I think an interesting trend I'm watching is while I wasn't necessarily that high on Alex Wemberg, individually as a player in Seattle, dropping him into the situation where him and Capo Kako are just playing on. this third line that's like gets to just dominate territorially and the Rangers will be totally fine if there's not many goals scored is a situation for them to succeed and they've been doing so so far in that way and so as long as the bottom six can essentially just play to a draw and then allow our Temi Padarin's line to come out and dominate and now Zabinajad's playing a lot better with track Roslovich there all of a sudden now I think you're cooking with some interesting

materials as opposed to previously when it was kind of hanging on by a thread of five-on-five so yeah, I guess I'm pushing back on the notion that they're getting lucky. I think previously we might have had some issues with it now. I just think they're a legitimately good team. Like they're right there in a top tier of teams and that's where the standings reflect. So it's interesting how they've, I guess, taken a step in that regard this season compared the years past. Yeah.

Again, just to just to kind of say like to compare them to another team, it's kind of. it's kind of like the oilers a few years ago where it's like were they getting lucky because you know McDavid and dry saddle were going so so like far beyond psycho and then when those guys were off the ice you know the oilers scored 38% of the goals or whatever and it was the Rangers used to be a lot more in that same vein where it's like all like you said all they got to do is hold the line at five on five when the when the big guns are off the guys, and then the big guns come out and, you know, score 58% of the goals and it's fine, you know. Now they're, like you said, at the deadline adding these guys that just help them kind of smooth that out is so important for them.

And, you know, now we don't have to pretend like the kid line, which I hate to say, is like they're three weeks away from really turning it all around for the Rangers. it feels like they don't have to do that anymore. We have hit a different, like a crossroads here though, where I think your level of perspective on this stuff is very telling in terms of like analysis. So if you're just purely looking at stuff through, all right, well, this was the shot counter and this is where the shots came from on the ice

and that's going to tell us who the better team was. Like that's obviously not what's happening in hockey right now. And so I think that's where this is interesting, where individual talent level is very real. the types of shots you're consistently generating is a real skill. And there are obviously going to be both individuals and teams that have those individuals on them that are going to find ways to be in the blind spots, a lot of this stuff until we get more information that can be siphoned into the models.

Right. And so the Rangers wear that for a while. And there's certainly teams on both extremes that are going to put that bill. So very interesting stuff. Okay. Let's take our break here. And then we come back, we'll jump right back into the mailback questions and keep doing them with Ryan Lambert.

you're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right. We're back here in the Hockey Padio cast doing a mailbag with Ryan Lambert. R.L. Why got you here? We got to do your NCAA corner. Every time we got you on, we get some NCAA questions. As someone who covers it closely and is equipped to talk about it, I got to pick your mind. So here's a question for you.

And it comes from John. As someone who doesn't watch a ton of college hockey, can you talk about what Macklin-Sellibrini's ceiling is? Now, I think this is really fascinating because clearly he's going to go number one and that's been established. But I think the quality of this draft has sort of been framed as being substandard compared to previous ones and like your general ideal of what a draft looks like. I think the misconception with that is, I think that speaks more to that range once you get into the teens and in particularly to the 20s and where it becomes a bit more of an unknown as opposed to maybe previous years. I don't think that's a reflection on the top of the class because Celebrini, by all accounts, is a truly elite player. But in projecting ahead as like the crown jewel of this draft, where are you at right now in terms of whether he's in that truly, potentially generational franchise altering player or whether he's just a really, really, really good player that anyone would obviously be happy to have, but doesn't necessarily mean that getting him is going to entirely change his trajectory of your organization. Yeah, I don't think he's a generational talent.

I reserve that for your, your, uh, Badaard, excuse me, Badaards and, uh, McDavid's and Crosbys and things like that. Um, but, but I was, I just saw. So yesterday he was, uh, named to the, uh, top 10 for the Hobie Baker award. I fully expect him to, uh, make the final three and probably, quite frankly, win it, although that is a little bit dependent on what he does in the next, uh, few weeks, obviously. With that having been said, he's doing that at the age of 17 years old, right?

Like, he doesn't turn 18 until June, and he is playing against guys who are 22, 23, 24, 25 years old. For example, you mentioned Cutter Goate, or I mentioned Cutter Goatea earlier, I guess. you didn't bring them up. And Cudor Gautier is like a year and a half older than Celebrini is. Maybe even more than that now that I say it. And the fact that they're even vaguely competitive in terms of like Celebrini's, you know, just as impressive, quite frankly, on the ice.

And then you take into account the age and you're like, oh, that's a huge thing. thing. I can't remember the last time I saw a player, if it ever happened, play his entire freshman college season at 17 years old. I was there. So anyway, when they announced the Hobie top 10 yesterday, Cam Robinson from Elite Prospects, said he pointed out he's the first 17-year-old to ever be nominated for the award. And in a conversation with our buddy Tom Drantz, Robinson said he's easily the second best prospect in the last five years. So I think that is something for people to keep in mind. Like, yeah, okay, the totality of the first round or whatever is not great,

but the tippy top of it is, you know, like he said, he's the second best prospect since 2020, basically. Yeah. So I don't know what more you can say. about it, you know? Yeah, 30 goals and 33 NCAA games a season. Pretty good. And I think that's certainly going to play.

As a 17-year-old. Right away, yeah, not bad. What do you? And the other thing is, if I can quickly point out, I would say that he did not, they've really experimented around him with his, with his linemates too. Like Cutter-Gotier has basically had the same linemates all year.

There were some injuries to guys like Gabe Perot, who has been really good for BC. year that mix things up a little bit, but for the most part, GoTIA's linemates have been pretty static and certainly the power play unit. He's the top power play unit has been, whereas they've kind of really had to mix things up to keep BU dangerous just because they don't have nearly as much forward depth as B.C. does. Yeah, my question for you as a follow up to that then is,

I guess it will be dependent, or maybe not, on which team he won I'm going to at number one. But has he done enough already this season? I mean, typically we see first overall picks regardless, just immediately start playing for their pro team. I guess an example of that not being the case would be someone like Owen Power recently, where he went back for the extra year. But if he went to like San Jose, for example, that situation is so bleak. Do you think there's a possibility where he would go back for another? NCAA season and then come at the end of the year, burn the first year of the EOC and go that route?

Or do you think the fact that like he's already at a goal per game this year as a 17 year old? It's like, all right, I've already kind of shown that I'm not necessarily outgrown this league, but there's not that much more for me to improve on here. And he's just going to want to immediately step into the NHL from day one, regardless of the situation, kind of like Badaar did with the Blackhawks's pass here. So it's a little, it's interesting because he's so young, right? Like, if he were six months older, I would say, like, no, it's a no question slam dunk. As you might imagine, this has been a topic of conversation in a lot of press boxes at college hockey games in recent weeks.

Basically, my understanding of, like, everybody taking the temperature of this, including myself, is it is very team dependent. You mentioned the sharks, obviously they're, like you said, it's bleak, but what you've got to keep in mind is the GM of the sharks, Mike Greer, played for Boston University. The coach of the sharks, David Quinn, played for Boston University. They might have a bit more of a vested interest in saying, you know what, why don't you stay an extra year in college versus, you know, they're kind of like what, what would you say, like two years behind Chicago in the rebuild cycle?

Yeah, I'd say at least, right, because they're still in the tearing down process. like Chicago's fully torn everything down. They're still sort of, I mean, they just trade a hurdle, but there's still, like, there's still, like, there's still Kuchur and Vlasic there. Like, there's still, and so much retained dead money on the books that I think there's still multiple years out from even considering being like, all right, let's start putting together a competitive team. Yeah.

And so that, that factors into it obviously more than whose alma mater is what, right? Whereas Chicago, if they get the top pick or, let's say, Anaheim, or, you know, take your pick. They're further along in their development where, A, you know, it's easier to slot Macklin Celebrity and behind a Connor Bedard or a Leo Carlson than it is whoever you want to say is going to be the top guy in San Jose next year, you know. But the, I think my issue with that is the risk for anybody signing him. is that if they feel like he can't cut it at the NHL level

as a guy who's playing his entire season at 18, now you're in a situation where you have to send him to the WHO. And you want to talk about it. If he's too good for college hockey, he's way too good for the WHOHL. Like he's scoring a goal a game against, again, 23, 24 year olds, you know? If he's only playing guys who are like 17, 18, 19, 20, he's going to destroy that.

So I don't, and then you get into the Shane Wright thing where it's like, do we just kind of keep him around and then like send him down like halfway through the year? I don't know that that's good for anybody, you know? So I wouldn't be surprised at all if he comes back for for another season of college hockey, especially. especially because the BU will be adding Cole Iserman to the mix. And if you can go, you know, I think the view on Iserman is the number two pick is really dimmed this year. But if you can go two top five picks, let's say, down the middle for BU next year, especially considering they're probably going to lose Lane Hudson this summer. Yeah, I think that wouldn't be a bad route for them, even though, again, celebrate

and he probably is too good to be playing college hockey next season. Yeah, and I'm sure there's little like habits and things you can, you can work on along the way, but at the same time, you do want to make sure in like key developmental years that players are, are stimulated in terms of like facing legitimate challenges and obstacles and then having to problem solve their way around it, as opposed to like, all right,

I've already scored as many goals. I'm just going to keep doing that. And this is what I do. Like I want him in a situation where he fails a little bit so that he has to build other tools to get by later on in his career. And I'm not sure if that would happen at the NCAA certainly would not happen in Major Junior. So it would be fascinating to see what happens there.

Here's one more. Oh, yeah, sorry, go for it. Okay. Well, the other thing I wanted to say about that, to your point that you just made, is the what, like, if you ask his coach, Jay Pandolfo at BU, like, what makes him such a special player? And he's like, well, obviously the talent, right? Like the way this kid shoots the puck is outrageous and the way he sees the ice is like plus plus or whatever you want to say.

But what he really does like better than anybody, again, this is according to his coach, is the way he like prepares for games and the level he practices at and the ambition to get better every game. or every week or whatever you want to say is like off the charts with him. Him and Lane Hudson kind of both have that quality. Again, according to the coach. Like these guys attack practicing as opposed to as opposed to just like, yeah, we practice, you know. And again, that's something that you can do a lot more of in college hockey because you only really play on the weekends for the most part. And that's a benefit to, you know, like riding a bus around the WHL. And especially in hockey east where all the teams are within like three hours of BU thereabouts, three and a half.

It's a bus league where you're in your own bed six nights out of the week on average. Like that's a huge benefit to him staying in college hockey as well. I don't know that he will necessarily, but if he does, like I wouldn't see that as any kind of a problem for him. No, it sounds like you're personally invested in keeping him in EPU, so you can keep.

I mean, I'd like to see him play live more. Yeah, that's true. I've seen him probably 10, 11 times this year. It's great. That rocks.

I like that. Yeah, it does. Okay. While we're on the NCAA topic, here's a question for you then. Which player do you think stands a chance to make the most

immediate impact after this NCAA season ends with an NHL team, if any. Do you think there's someone you could foresee with situation need for that team and legitimate talent level they've already displayed at the NCAA where you feel like in the final couple games of the regular season or right in jumping into the deep end in the playoffs, they could come in and make some sort of an impact for whoever their team the draft of them was? I mean, it's interesting because a lot of the guys that I, I think you would say that about in general are guys who are drafted by teams that aren't likely to make the playoffs.

You know, again, Cutter-Gotiate. There's a guy, that's an NHL player. Right now he's an NHL player. Again, and talk about a goal of game in college or whatever, you know. But, yeah, I'm just, again, Lane Hudson, Montreal pick. so he's not going to be making a huge difference. Massimo Rizzo, I mean, he's hurt right now, but he's a Flyers pick. So, I mean, the Flyers could still make the playoffs,

but I don't know what the timeline is on him returning. So, yeah, it is, there's nobody that, like, super jumps out to me as being, like, you know, like Chris Crider was when he came out of college and was just, like, immediately impactful for the Rangers. in the playoffs. Was that Chris Kreider? It was, yeah. It was, yeah.

What about Rutger McGroarty? For the Jets. I know they kind of, after adding to Foley, they are in less of a need, I guess, of an impactful winger, but it feels like he's pretty

physically mature and ready. And, you know, they're certainly right there atop the West. And I think they could use as much firepower as they can to keep up with teams like Dallas and Colorado.

So I think that would be an interesting one if they could actually get something functional out of him down like in the playoffs this season as like an added little boost that we might not have been expecting yeah no i mean he's again like you said it's kind of a depth issue thing for for like where does he slot into that lineup i don't like he hasn't i i i don't want to like uh take a shot at the guy or anything like that he's having a great season but he's not a guy where i look at him and i'm like lock it in.

There's a guy who's going to make a huge difference for an NHL team in a way that, again, like a Cutter Goatee does. Because again, with Cutter, it's just like instant offense. And I don't feel the same way about McGrady, although he's been like red hot since returning from injury. He missed a, I want to say from like November to January, he just wasn't in the lineup. and since he came back, like Michigan's really taken off with him as kind of the driver of that. But again,

does that like, I don't know how much that helps the Jets to have him in the lineup. Like he certainly would help. He's probably better than whoever you want to say their, their, uh,

their like worst winger is right now. He's better than that guy for sure. But, you know he's not going to get power play minutes or anything like that for them so right yeah yeah i think the to folly edition certainly made that less of a pressing need i would have said before i'm like all right we need to get vladen masticov out of the top six so if you could get some ruttgar minutes there i'd be intrigued but um but you know there's always injuries and i think having depth and and players who could step up and produce is certainly always useful if they're going to make a long

play out run let's do a couple more quick ones here beast says who got the better to see at the deadline the abs with middle of tat or Vegas with hurdle would the fits be better if swap now obviously we have not seen tomah's hurdle actually play at for Vegas because he's hurt and I think that's gonna factor into my answer here but I'm curious for your take on on on this uh you could take it from the middle stat perspective or from Vegas and hurdle because I think there's that's obviously one that that's you know rich with nuance I mean on paper I think you would say hurdle for now is definitely the better player, like, just on paper. Obviously, it's tough because he just played so much on an absolutely abysmal team

that, you know, the stats aren't there in the way they are. They kind of are with middle stat. But just like as a baseline lined draw, who would you rather have middle stat or hurdle? I think who's not saying hurdle? You know what I mean? And I say this fully acknowledging I'm a true hurt like early days hurdlehead, you know. So so that that is obviously also swaying my, my opinion. But yeah, obviously I like I said, I just I just generally speaking rather have Tomasherdle than Casey Middlestat.

And I don't I don't think that's like a controversial opinion at all. No, that that's fair. I will say from Vegas's perspective, why it's interesting is not only could. they like legitimately use middle stad playing right now if you were to flip this situation because of their situation i think also just like the pace he's able to play with at this point of his career would be intriguing for Vegas because they look very slow to me when i watch them and i don't think hurdles necessarily going to help that very much um now you can't necessarily look at this in a vacuum right because hurdle hurdle is five years older and his contract and

I talked about this at the time of the trade deadline where even with their attention, he's, you know, Vegas is due $6.75 million on him for his age 31 through 36 seasons for a player who has a scary injury history and is quite literally hurt right now. Vegas is uniquely equipped to take on that risk because they always do that and they're just going to make it work and find a way to either get out of it or move stuff around to accommodate it in those years. So they could just do that. I think Colorado would have been much more reticent to do.

so because they already have a big unknown in Gabriel Landiscag moving forward. And I don't think they would necessarily love a situation where now you add another big piece like that where you have no idea what you're going to get from them or whether a year or two from now it's just going to be LTIR money for you to worry about. And so I think Colorado is is perfectly happy with Middlestad here because of that stuff. Like with his RFA years and everything. And I just, watching him play on that team, not only has he fit in perfectly as we would of expected with both him and Sean Walker.

But if anything, he looks much faster than I remember him looking in Buffalo. And that's probably just like the Colorado just speeds everything up when you drop that in there. But just watching him play, it's like, man, he was obviously very good and quite a prolific playmaker the past couple of years in Buffalo, but just watching the speed he's operating at right now and how he's just seamlessly fit in. I've been sort of impressed and taken aback a little bit by just watching that play in real time. Yeah, no, like you said, I, I, I,

I just read the question more. Of course, yeah, which player is better? Who is the better one? And I, but yeah, with fits and everything.

The thing was that you mentioned with, with middle stat just like making Vegas play faster, the thing that I always wonder about is like, yeah, but like could they keep up with them? You know what I mean? Like I don't know that like adding hurdle, um,

is certainly not going to make Vegas faster, right? But like that it might be more. suitable to them to play faster, whereas adding hurdle to Colorado, like might slow Colorado down. And that's not obviously what they want. So, yeah, I think I think both teams kind of got their guy in a lot of ways. You know what I mean?

Yep. Yeah. They both make sense for where they went. Okay. Last one. I'm here from Tanaman. What went wrong with the Sabres this year? I mean, I think everybody kind of the number, the number one thing.

is that everybody was just kind of like, well, I mean, the goaltending is the big question. They missed the playoffs last year because of the goaltending. And I think a lot of the optimism was, well, sure, they overperformed offensively last season. They shot whatever, 12%. But if Devon Levi can come in and be a difference maker for them in the NHL, he can make up that difference. And then he didn't do that, right? Which is, it's a, it's a tough ask for, for what is he, 2021? It's a tough ask to, to ask a rookie goaltender, that young first full pro season.

Why don't you just step in behind the Buffalo savers and save our, save our asses all year? How's that sound? Right. That's just, that's just too hard. But then they got an outrageously good season for Mukulpeka Lukinen, which I don't think anyone saw coming. And I think part of that ties into You know they entered the season with I think

Like certainly a concern with goal tending And an and a Desire to change their approach a little bit And to make it more friendly for them And so I think in a way they really strayed too far From what made them so special and unique last year Even if it makes sense If you want to take that leap from being fun to good

It kind of it went too far And they've been trying to try and a sort of reverse course as the season's gone along. But it just, it took away like that special element of what I loved about them. Right now, I think part of this is we have to acknowledge. Like, I think Tage Thompson's injury to his wrist or hand or whatever he had in November, really nuke their power play because you look and he just like stopped taking slapshots, which made him so lethal last year.

And that power play went from ninth in goals. Broward at 26, and that's like a 30 goal difference right there. And so maybe it was unrealistic to expect them to continue being that good because of the shooting percentage and that would have progressed anyways. But I can't help but feel like if they were getting this season from Lukobako Luka and the power play was not that good, but just more middling, that's the kind of the difference between being on the outside right now and taking advantage of this wide open Eastern Conference wildcard picture.

And so that's a bit frustrating, but also I guess hopeful because at the risk of falling into the trap all over again, heading into next season. I feel like just getting Tage healthy and a couple tinkering here and there is the difference between not necessarily becoming a Stanley Cup contender, but like legitimately finally getting back into the playoffs, which has been eluding them for this long. Yeah. And the other thing I guess to say here is that they did do a little bit of the, why don't we go out and get some veterans to help us be more respectable, spend money on your Connor Clifton's

or whatever, and it's like, I mean, okay, man, sure. But I want to say this, too, when, uh, when Hugo Pekulukinen is not in the lineup, uh, for them, way below 900 goaltending, right? And he, he's only played, it says here he's only played 44 games. So I, I think, you know, you can, you can point to that and go, well, there's your problem. When you get like horrible goaltending for, for 30 games or whatever it is this year, that that's going to hurt you.

I don't, you know, I don't think we have to look at it too much deeper than that. Plus, like I said, the overperformance last year kind of, that's what made them fun last year, right? Was that like, pucks were just jumping into the net for them. And if you want to say the Tage Thompson injury hampered that, of course it did, right? But I don't know. I just looked at them last year and said, like, well, they're not this good. And if we're counting on any goalie to like really step up for them and make them competitive.

And again, we mentioned this earlier too. That division is just a beast. Like you, what are, what are these guys supposed to do when, you know, the third best team in that division is the Toronto Maple Leafs? you know yeah yeah it'll be interesting to see what they do i do think they have a bit of an issue with like diversity of skills and kind of problem solving like when they play teams that that are defending against them a certain way it feels like they don't really have very many answers and i'm not sure how much of that is coaching or how much of that is is players right because we all love what the job granato did last year for example and like his connection with the players

and cultivating those relationships and all of that from a development perspective but i think we'd also agree that there's like two different types of coaches or skill sets behind the bench for like that side of things and then tactically beating good teams, especially once you get into the playoffs and taking that next step in that sense. And that still remains to be seen whether he's the man for that job and what they do with that. So it'll be interesting to watch. I'll be I'll be back in on them again next season, assuming full health and assuming they do some, some good stuff in the off season.

So TBD, okay, or I'll plug some stuff. We're heading out here. What do you want the listeners to check out or do you have anything in particular that you want to share? Yeah,

over at EP Rinkside, as we kind of alluded to, like college hockey season is wrapping up. This weekend is when conference championships will be decided and we'll know the NCAA tournament field by Saturday night and all that kind of stuff. So that's, I'm doing kind of wall-to-wall coverage of college hockey

for the next few weeks here. I'm going to the Frozen Four in St. Paul in mid-April. It should be really fun. So, yeah, if you want to know more about college hockey, I am your man for the next month or three weeks or so. I love that. Yeah, if you enjoyed that 15-minute talk on RL's NCAA-A-Corn, then why not buy the full place and check out his work and follow along.

This is a blast man. Thanks for coming on. Thanks for doing this. Thank you to the listeners for sending in the questions. As always, if you want to get involved in future editions of the mailbag, pop into the PDOCast Discord. In my link is in the show notes. And we'll be back with one more episode here to close out the week.

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