The Hockey PDOcast - Teams With Decisions to Make at This Year’s Deadline

Episode Date: February 20, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Shayna Goldman to talk about teams with big decisions to make about the direction they're going in at this year's deadline, like the Devils and seemingly everyone battling for the second wild card spot in the West. They also get into Auston Matthews' goal scoring, Matty Beniers' defensive game, and which veteran forward the Stars should prioritize this summer.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Progressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitra Filipovich and join Amy's my good buddy, Shana Goldman. Shana, what's going on? Hey, thanks for having me. This is going to be fun. We've got some fun mailbag questions from the listeners in the PDOCast Discord server that we're going to use as a bit of a launching pad for us to get into a variety of different topics over the next hour. So I thought this was a fun one because it obviously incorporates a favor to mine that I talk about a bunch of the show, but also I think it gives us a chance to talk about the team and the league dynamics and the outdoor event this weekend as well.

And Sad Pitt asks, what are the comps for Dawson Mercer's next contract? Now, I think this is an interesting one because obviously we'll talk about the player and that itself. But I kind of want to talk to you as well about where the devils are at right now, now that they're finally getting healthier the way we've seen them play recently. and this interesting crossroads they're at as an organization this season where on the one hand, if the playoffs started today, they wouldn't be in it, right? They've had a very cursed year with injuries and goaltending and things really haven't gone their way after they really did last season.

But on the other hand, at their best, when they're healthy, they're still really, really good. And I don't think anyone would want to play them in the playoffs. And so they're at this spot where I guess they're trying to figure out themselves as well how aggressively they go for it this season versus sort of taking, a long view and playing for the future. So let's get into all that. Where are you at with the devils and sort of what do you think they're thinking right now in terms of what the next couple weeks are going to look like?

I mean, the first thought has to be, are we healthy enough, right? And you can see that starting to happen. You have Jack Hughes is back in the fold. Seagallor who, it's been a tough year for him, you know, before the injury, but you're hoping he comes back, refreshed, ready to go. And, you know, is there potential for, Dougie Hamilton should return in the playoff. So if you're thinking, okay, we're going to be healthy enough, then it's what do you need to do?

And first and foremost, it's we need consistent saves if you're the devil's. Like, that has to be front of mind. And right now you're getting that with Nico Dawes. He's been really great for his last four starts. And he had a stretch like this a little bit after he was promoted and then kind of faded out. But if he can maintain this level and be at least above average, it's a step in the right direction. But you must be thinking, okay, how do we support him in that if he can't be that way? because, I mean, let's face it, Betech-Kana-check, isn't that this year?

So if you're healthy enough, you're thinking, if we can get goaltending, can we take advantage of how close the metro is and how open those wildcard seeds are? So if I'm the devils, I'm thinking, yes, you go for it, but you don't have to go all out this year because it's not this year a bust like it is for other teams. It's true. Well, coming off is a big win in the stadium series matchup against the Flyers over the weekend, right? And that's the team that they are most directly competing with for the third spot in the metro. We're going to get a bit of a battle up top between the Rangers and the Hurricanes,

who are four points out from each other for the one seed. But they're going to be competing with the Flyers. The Flyers are up five points on them right now. The Devils have two games in hand. They have a head-to-head. And I believe that like the second last game of the season, which would be very fun if that actually had playoff implications. But there's also this dynamic that Philly is almost thinking about it entirely differently

where they're still sort of keeping the door open to be a seller. They have a bunch of decisions to make themselves. And so they're kind of looking at it through the other lens. but with Jack Hughes and EcoHistria in the lineup this season, I have them at 29 and 3 this season, which is a 110 point pace. And they haven't really left themselves a lot of margin for error yet, right? Like there's less than 30 games left and they still have a lot of work to do. But I don't know if you feel a bit surprised looking at Dom's latest playoff projections on the athletic.

He's got them at 53%, I believe, right now. And I think that just accounts for the fact that there's not that much season left. Their performance has been very up and down. and they still have to like leapfrog teams and compete with others. At the same time, though, that seems a bit low to me considering what I just said, where when they've had their top two centers in the lineup and they have them right now, they've been a very, very good, very formidable team. So I feel like I would probably skew on the more positive side of those things,

but I think that sort of accounts for the uncertainty or I guess volatility in the final couple months. Yeah, exactly. I mean, unless the model could be broken today. I did it for like the second time ever, so it could be broken today, keep them. But no, it definitely, I think it's right to have an optimistic view because we haven't, we haven't had like the truest look at the devils this season and injuries are key reason why. And it's nothing new, right? We've seen them before missing Hesha, we've seen them missing Jack Hughes in the past.

And the biggest problem is when those players were out, you weren't seeing other step up the way you expect them to, right? Timom Meyer, we know he was playing through injury earlier in the season. The devil's kind of hinted as much. but he hasn't, you know, risen to the occasion when those players were out of the lineup. And then when they're in the lineup, he's not performing at the caliber you expect of him either. Guys like Dawson Mercer, it was a perfect opportunity for him to really show that he can play top six center. And he didn't do it when they were, you know, out of the lineup.

So there's definitely reasons for concerns. And then you have other elements like John Marino's been underperforming and you have to account for that. And the goaltending has been inconsistent. There's only so much you can go off of Dawes. you have to look at the whole picture and, you know, Schmidt and Vanichick both struggling. So I get it from both sides of the coin, why we can be a little bit more pessimistic and why there's reason for optimism. For me personally, I would err closer to your side of it.

I think a healthy lineup and we know that they're going to get those reinforcements as the year continues to unfold and players get healthier. I think that they have an opportunity to sneak in, especially when you look at the teams around them. And that's the penguins and even the lightning for a wild card seed. So even if the flyers stay in the playoff picture and that's going to be really up in the air based on what they do because they're never going to say,

hey, we're tanking, but if they start selling and we don't even know how much they'll sell, if at all, we just have to think that they will. It could open the door for the devils to make it. Like there's at least three spots that they could grab.

Well, and that's why they're an interesting spot because on the one hand, I think the 30th team's state percentage, right? I think what they've gone from Dawes recently is encouraging. I think I'm at the point with Anichik where he's almost unplayable. Like he needs to prove it to me because it's been not only bad from a results perspective,

but just the eye test, like watching him fumble pucks and give up rebounds and not really know what's happening in front of them. It's been alarming. So I don't think they can go that route. So they have this kind of obvious need. There's still a lot of health concerns. And they have their core locked up, right? This isn't for some teams.

They enter a season like this where it's like, all right, we have some massive contractual decisions to make this summer. We have aging players, and so we're kind of being forced, even if the timing isn't right, to go for it. For them, a lot of these players are under contract for at least three, four, five more years. And so they don't have to worry about that. On the other hand, I'm very reticent about taking that for granted in these situations, right? I think we've seen teams expect that, well, all of our players are in that 22 to 25 year window, we don't need to force the issue.

Our time will come. And then injuries happen. league dynamics change, whatever else can occur, and all of a sudden, that window just slammed shut on you. And so in this case, when you have Jack Hughes at 22 years old, Dico His share at 25 years old, and they're both playing for like a combined $15 million on the cap, that's such a competitive advantage. And while they're in their prime, I don't want to waste any seasons. And so the first 55 or 60 games haven't gone their way, but I would still be very curious about seeing them kind of push and either upgrade the goaltending or at a reliable defenseman. And we should mention

they're in this unique spot where they have around 10 million or so in cap space to use the rest of the season with Douggy Hamilton and LTIR, right? That's something that a lot of contenders don't have in their back pocket. So I'm very curious to see what they do. And I guess the reason why I framed this Mercer question is because it seems like if they do make some sort of a big swing, he would be one of the few assets they have that would be realistically intriguing, right? The teams that we're talking about are the flames with Markstrom and the defensemen or

the predators with UC Soros and maybe even an Alex Carrier or something like that. And I think we need to move on from like the Simone Nemitz talk because he's clearly played himself into a situation where he is not going anywhere anytime soon. And so then you get to, well, it's probably either Alexander Holtz or Dawson Mercer. And so I think that's why it's interesting because they almost have to decide whether he is a core member of this group and he's going to be locked up like the rest to them long term or whether they're going to use him as a trade chip to potentially upgrade elsewhere. Yeah, and it's a tricky one because on the surface, I'm sure most people would say, obviously you trade Holtz, but he's not going to be worth as much as well as he's performed.

There's, you know, other coaches and other general managers could look at it and say, hey, the devils are completely wrong in their usage of him. And they have a shining star that they just won't use. But on the flip side, other teams could look at it and go, well, if the devils don't trust him, why would we? Or look at what he's done when he's exposed. to bigger minutes, he struggled, which has been the case, especially in his own zone. So someone like Mercer is a lot more valuable. And if you're going to swing big and say they're

trying for a Hanifin or a Marchham, you might have to. And it makes sense to swing big here and not just go for the rental because like you mentioned, this is a unique window. You can go for it while your players are in their primes. And why wouldn't you? Why would you wait? So then you're constantly facing a ticking clock. But then you can't be just doing something for this year. You need it if you're spending to be worthwhile after spending big last year as well. And again, that was for a piece that wasn't a one-off. Then you have the Mercer contract situation. And it's, it's interesting because he's an RFA. So obviously he doesn't have a ton of rights, right? You know, the devils have the leverage here. And they could look at it and say, we have other

core players locked up and you're not one of them. And they'd have reason to say that, especially if they're this year, if you could have built off last year and really, you know, raised the game and raised his value, it's one thing. But here it is, even when he wasn't in the top six or backup, if he wasn't in the top six, he wasn't thriving on his share's wing enough. He wasn't thriving on Hughes's wing when they were healthy. When those players were out and he had the opportunity to step up with the top six role, which is something he did in his rookie season with flying colors, he struggled. When he was on the third line, they tried playing him at center.

They still put him back on the wing in favor of someone like how it down the middle. Like that says something. And while he's picked up the pace recently and I think that we're seeing things more consistently below the surface and more on the score sheet, you know, that performance is troublesome some that I don't see the devil's investing too heavily in him. It makes sense to go for that bridge deal. Maybe it'll burn them in the long term, but they need that cap flexibility anyway. But if you move him, are you selling low or does another team see past that? So it's all these different things at once that they have to figure out where they are, where they want to be,

who they think is expendable, who do they replace which players with? And it's going to be really interesting because they're in such a different position than any, almost any other team in the playoff picture, right? Because everybody else, we're talking about a core that is facing so much more pressure based on the ages of their core. Certainly. I mean, I might not be able to like view this with an unbiased perspective, right? Because I've planted my flag on on Dawsonvers here over the past couple of years. But you're right. Like on the one hand, I think he didn't score in his first 10 games and certainly did not build off of the high expectations that he had set for himself last year. But you look, 27 goals last year. He's still on pace for 23 now.

because he has picked up that pace. And a lot of it is coming at 5-on-5 as well, right? Since the start of last year, he has the same number of 5-on-5 goals. Jake Gensel, Travis Keneckney, Kyle Connor, Chris Kreider. And I just think it's his versatility. Whether he plays down the middle or the wing, the reason why I think he's such an important player for this team is because how unique his skill set is compared to their other top forwards, right?

I think the reason why they prioritized that Timo Myers so much on the trade market last year was because of his size and kind of adding this element to get into the interior and battle in front of the net, which is something you're not necessarily going to expect Jack Hughes and Jasper Brat to do, right? And in this case, Mercer doesn't necessarily have the frame of a Timomeyer,

but he uses it so much more functionally, and we've seen that over the past couple weeks where he just lives around the net, right? His motor, his compete level, his willingness to engage in those battles and come out ahead in them is why all the jokes about him having so much dog in him

have certainly come up. And also it's based in reality, right? And I think that's important. for this team where they can be sometimes a bit perimeter based or a bit too leaning towards making like high leverage skill plays, he's able to actually do some of the stuff that those guys don't do to compliment them. And so whether that is on the wing or down the middle at 22 years old, I find that very intriguing for them. And I think he's a valued piece around the league. I think if they made him available, they could certainly complete pretty much whatever trade

they wanted to. But man, I would be, I'd be actually going the other way, I think. I'd be considering going long term with him and trying to buy up some of those UFA years if you could kind of talk them into buying low on him, right? Because it has been a bit of disappointment. Yes, of course.

If he had followed up last year's 27 goal season with like a 35 goal pace right now, I think it'll be a different discussion because you'd be like, all right, well, maybe the devil should play this smart and keep that flexibility. In this case, if you could go, all right, well, we can get him

for a couple of UFA years as well and hope that he grows into that and this is a bit of an aberration the start of the season. all of a sudden I'd be very interested, and I would be viewing him as a secondary piece, certainly not on the level of Hughes and Brad and his year, but one that's very valuable nonetheless. And that's the thing. You know, yes, every team wants to have those game breakers.

But the devils have that. Not every player, we can't, like, hold those players to the same bar. So if he's going to get that long-term contract, it's not going to be in that $7, $8, $9 million range. Like, they set the bar for that. If they can somehow sneak a deal that, say, four, five years in that $4 million range, that has a ton of value and a ton of potential. Because like you said, he has a complimentary skill set and he can be that complimentary forward,

whether it's at center or at wing. You know, if the players get injured, can he step up and take their places because both players have, you know, a kind of dicey injury history? Can he be a three C when they need him to be? Can he just fit all around the lineup? I think the devils have to take this year in stride

and remember, like, he's still a young player. Like he didn't have the sophomore slump. He had a third year slump. And that's okay. You know, are, Are there concerns that his shot volume and shot quality is a little bit down from last year? Yes. But is it something that you can still work with?

Absolutely. Especially when two of your best playmakers missed a chunk of time as well. And he wasn't playing with them. It's a tough call. I think if you're the devil's, Holtz is the player going to move every day of the week because he's a bottom six player in New Jersey. And it just doesn't seem like there is that mobility for him to move up at this point with this coaching staff.

So you want to keep Mercer around because you know he is more of a fit. But yeah, I would go long term if you can get them cheap. I just, if I'm the player, and I guess that's where my head was, I'm thinking I'm not signing a long term deal this year, not happening. I'm waiting for cap growth. I'm waiting for my game to jump off. And if I can have two more years to prove myself, like that's going to be, you know, the most lucrative to me. Yeah, no, absolutely. And in one final kind of path, because I've mentioned that they're passing about the Nemitz thing, because every time I post about him or I post about the devil's needing to upgrade at goalie or whatever, right?

I get a lot of either Flames fans or Predators fans are like, oh, Simon. Emmett's is going to look really good in our team's jersey. And it's, I mean, it wasn't ever an option, I don't think, but certainly now you look like he led the team in that stadium series game, which is a big game for them in 5-1-5 ice time. He has certainly looked apart. He's been a stud. And I mean, the fact that he's going to be making like 900-K or whatever for two more seasons after this one as a right-shot defenseman who just turned 20, that is so incredibly valuable.

I'd honestly, like, I would just take him straight up right now over Noah Hanna, not even accounting for any of that other stuff. And so the idea that he would be a piece they'd used to acquire a defenseman and a goalie is just not really based in reality and there's nothing to it. So I think we can move on from that, but they do have other players like Mercer Holtz and even like a shameless Casey that I think all of a sudden could make for a very interesting package if they go to that, go that route. Anything else on on the devils or do you want to kind of move on to some of the other teams in this mix? Yeah, I can't believe anyone would think that he would be on the table. Like not for nothing. They drifted him second overall and that was a pick.

I think most of us would have looked at him and like, you could have traded because you weren't going to go for a center there. You didn't need the other center. You could have traded down and they still felt let's hold the pick and make the selection.

That was not that long ago and he's done nothing but thrive in a situation that was so tough for him. Like obviously, you know, I think some had hesitations would have been Hughes and him in the lineup at the same time. Is that too many young defenders?

But it's like, no, definitely not. That is, that's how you extend your window while you're trying to contend, which a lot of teams can't do. So yeah, that that one surprises me that anyone would think that would be on the table. But yeah, we can move on whenever. Well, you know what?

Anything, a lot of stuff that happens these days makes me feel old, certainly. But there was a play the other day when the Cracken were in town and Nemitz went coast to coast and like danced Adam Larson and didn't score, but it was a great scoring chance

and it was a coast to coast rush, right? And it was like, man, I remember when Adam Larson was, he was never profiled as like that skilled of a player like doing the stuff that Nimitz is doing. But I remember when he was, a former topic young defenseman prospect playing for the devils and being hyped about him and now it's like it's just full circle and it all came together so it was uh it was quite a play okay um

do you want to talk a little bit about the fires real quick just just throwing them into a mix here because we mentioned them in that game and they have a 60% playoff probability and what they do with walker who's been a big topic of discussion here recently a lot and i think even connect me it seems like it's it's all things are pointing towards him being a core member and then just waiting for that long-term extension to come. But there's so much alike with this team. I find them so fun to watch. I think they're super legit.

Like I don't think, I'm not waiting for the other shoot-a-drop here, barring, you know, big trades they make to become sellers. But we've also seen the limitations of the way they're currently constructed in watching that game against the Leafs last week, right? Where through the first 30 minutes or so, the Flyers were clearly the superior team. They were using that team speed to just keep the puck,

give the Leafs all sorts of trouble. And then within eight minutes, Austin Matthews scores three goals. They make a comeback. It goes to overtime, William Nealander scores. And it just sort of showed what a team like the Leafs has

that can be those ultimate game breakers that the Flyers might not really have. And we've seen that against when they bumped into the abs or the lightning in the past as well. And so that kind of shows you, I guess, where this is such a fun story. But if you're taking a longer term view, maybe you need to be a bit realistic.

But also, I don't want to necessarily just act like it's foregone. conclusion that, you know, these first 50 games were a pipe stream because a lot of the metrics certainly back them up, especially a 5-15. And when you watch them play, it's a style that makes a lot of sense. Yeah, I'm not surprised at this good defensively when you think of John Tortorella. And, you know, his associate coach, Bradshaw, who has done fantastic work with

Tortorale. You look at what they did together in Columbus. I feel like he doesn't get enough hype. That, to me, it's not just the old ways of John Tortorella. We, like, I'm someone who obviously talks a lot about recycled coaches and how a lot of them don't change job to job. And I think we really have seen Tortorale evolve to a more modern game. Does he still lean on a shot blocking heavy defensive style? Yes, but in a more modern way.

And you can see how that translates to the Flyers games because here they are this really good defensive team. They're an amazing penalty killing team. Exactly what we would think a John Torturel and Bradshaw team would be. But there's that offensive element to them that it's, almost surprising to me how good it's been, you know, below the surfaces at five on five this year. I didn't expect them to be as good off the rush. I didn't expect them to be as good, you know, in their shot and scoring chance generation. And there they are based on the roster.

And like you said, they don't have that game breaking. We can flip a game on its head in two seconds flat talent yet. But they're building such a good foundation for themselves that you wonder how much they're going to change it now. You can still sell pieces, but how much do you change? I think the biggest hit to them is that Ristelining got injured because he is someone that was like an unintended reclamation project in Philly under Torts that I think if you could have moved him, even though it's a big gamble because it wasn't a rental. It's a big body ready and a defenseman who plays that playoff style of hockey general manager's crave. If you could have gotten something back for him and for Seeler, I think it would have opened the door to them saying, why would we move Sean Walker? someone who should go for a lot based on how consistent and how good he's been,

but someone other general managers might be a little bit more skeptical about because he hasn't had the history of that and two, he's smaller. So it's going to be interesting to me to see how they handle this because I think that you can get away with not moving every player out. And obviously you can still compete, right? You can still compete every day of the week even if you sell. And if you make the playoffs and get a little bit of experience, great. If you can be a disruptor, great, wonderful.

Like Tortoella knows how to put a team in that position. You look at the blue jackets of years past. It just feels like it's not a foregone conclusion that everybody goes. And you wonder who does or doesn't? Does someone like Scott Lawton go? He's so important to the locker room, but he's someone that I think you can also get a lot for. He's this versatile penalty killing center that general managers love to add at the deadline. And if you're the flyers, do you move him while his game's in decline and try to push for the best return you can?

you know, because it might not be available to you next year, or do you say you don't want to disrupt things too much? Like, we really don't know how that's going to go. Well, and I think they can also just based on the way they're constructed, it's such a depth approach and they have so many contributors as well, and it's such a friendly system for, like, younger players and their prime to play in that I think they could make a few moves on the margins by trading a lot or a sealer or as you mentioned, Ristelight, and not necessarily all of a sudden being like,

oh, well, that means this is the end of our season. I still think they could maintain the approach they have. Walker's been such a big part of it because he excels so much in joining the rush and has contributed a lot offensively that way. I do think if they do decide to trade them, there's going to be a very healthy market for it because not only has he put a lot of good stuff on tape this year, but there's a lot of teams that would very, very much benefit from him, right? So I think there's going to be a long lineup of teams that will be upping the price for him. But yeah, I don't, there's creative ways to do it, right? Especially for a big market team, as long as you maintain flexibility and

you don't box yourself in, it doesn't necessarily have to be, well, we have to be, well, we to be the worst team in the league and the first overall pick three straight years and that's how we're going to get our star talent there's trades there's all sorts of reclamation projects you mentioned there's certain ways that you can get creative and add high level talent and also i mentioned they don't have austin matthews well no one else really does either right especially from a game breaking goals scoring perspective so i'm not going to hold that against them too much but man what uh what on that note what matthews is doing right now should talk about that a little bit because it has just been absolutely jaw dropping right had the the six hat trick over the week

is up to 49 goals now. Kenna fittingly top the 50 goal mark this week on Wednesday in Arizona. I've got the stat since December 1st. He has scored 35 goals and 32 games. These are the least leading scorers in that time. Matthews are 35. Nealander was 17. Marner with 14.

And then you've got Tavares at 8, Bobby McMahon at 8, and six of those have come in the past week. And then no one else in the team has more than five goals. And I don't know if he's necessarily going to be able to claw his way into the top of the MVP discussion, right, just because the point totals that McKinnon and Kutraub are putting together and now with McDavid surging as well. But honestly, the more you think about and the more you watch this team,

they're really going to literally go as far as he's going to drag them offensively and not an inch further, right? And you can lump Neelander and Marner into that certainly as well. But the reliance they've had on his goal scoring and how much he's been coming through, especially recently, is quite literally the definition of MVP, right? Like there's not a lot of margin prayer for them. They're still competing for kind of that third seed in the Atlantic.

There's a few teams on their heels. And I sort of shutter to think where they'd be if he was just having a regular season as opposed to this superhuman one. Yeah, exactly. And you look at the leaps and the discourse around them from this season. And we can point to like five different things that have like ailed them at times. It's the goaltending. It's the defense.

It's the injuries. It's the depth scoring. But through it all, you have Austin Matthews doing his thing. And it's not just. a team led by their core poor this year, it feels like. It's different. You know, you look at Tavares and he as, you know, before right before the all-stop break was as snake-bitten as it could be,

you know, he had the biggest gap between expected and actual goals. He just wasn't converting on his chances. You look at a player like Mitch Marner, and yes, he has the counting stats, but below the surface, his two-way game isn't where it usually is. His passing game is down from years past as well. So you have Nealander doing a little bit of everything, and then you have Matthews doing everything and more that he could do. And it was kind of interesting.

start the season because he scored in bunches and then he had a couple games without goals and it was like well he's he's shooting the puck a little bit closer is that hurting him you know is he in too tight is he missing his chances and then all of a sudden it was like that conversation was done within like a week because there it was again on the score sheet at such a consistent rate you know like are we going to start undervaluing hat tricks soon because we're seeing them on the regular from him like i don't know it should still be like this exciting moment but to hear the conversation around him with the heart and the argument against it being, well, he's only scoring goals. Okay.

What would you like him to? Would you prefer him to pass the buck and let someone else not finish the chance? What's the difference? Like, we look at primary points for a reason and a goal is a primary point. If he's going to lead the way in primary point percentage or, you know, have a primary point on, say, 45% of the leaves goals, like that's going to be something important to talk about, whether it comes from a pass or a shot. but the fact that he's the one finishing his chances at such a high rate with such versatility

in his game the way he does it. It's so important. He single-handedly is winning his team games at times. So he should be in the conversation, absolutely. I feel like for me, I look at it right now and I'm like, I know he's a lock for the top four because you have Kutra, you have McKinnon, and now you have McDavid surging back up and you look at everything the Oilers have done thanks to that rebound. And you have such a good race.

I just, I love it. I'm so excited to see where it goes. And if you can keep up this rate, you know, what is he on pace for now? 76 goals. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And if he gets into that air, I think it might change the conversation a little bit just because

that's been such a rare feat, right? But I think with the gap right now where it is in points and for some reason that being used against him, I get it like assists are valuable as well. But I'm not going to hold that against him because you mentioned it's like, it's tough for him to get any assists when he's the one literally scoring all of the goals for them. Right. If he could get assist on his own goals, he probably would as well. But yeah, I think we're being spoiled a little bit by the top of that class because you mentioned those four.

I'd even throw like a David Pasternak in there, not that he's going to break into that top four, but how reliant they are on him offensively, where if you strip from him from that equation, I think they'd be one of the worst teams in the league in terms of offensive generation. Like he does so much of the heavy lifting for them. And he's just not really getting any of that shine, partly because he did it last year and partly because the top four has just been kind of top. themselves night after night, right? And so we mentioned Matthew's goaltending or goal scoring. Well, McDavid has 18 assists in his past eight games as well. And he's at this point now where

he has 11 points back of Kuturov with five games in hand. And if I were a betting man, I would be scared to bet against McDavid catching him by the end of the season as well. And so we're getting to this hilarious spot where, and it's funny for me, it's probably not funny for Nikita Kutrov, of where he could legitimately score like 55 goals, have 140 points at the end of the day, and not take home the heart, the art Ross, or the Rock and Richard because of what the other top players in the league are doing. And so as a fan, it's a, it's a pretty special time to watch what they're doing. And so I guess that's sort of a takeaway here where it's like you almost can't go wrong

and it just cool what these guys at the top of the league are doing every single night. Yeah. And it makes the game better when the stars are in the line up and playing at their top capacity. like I know it's so easy to be like if you're a flames fan obviously you want to see kind of McDavid out of the lineup and if you're a flyers fan you don't want to see jack you's healthy and you know going but it makes the game so much better and so much more exciting because we get to talk about stuff like this and you know watch it on the nightly basis yesterday like you can't get enough watching hat tricks here and there and you know the bruns are and you know you want to

see what poshenox going to do you know you want to see that battle of nathan mckenon and nakeda kutra off the other night like that is like marquey matchup right there so Yeah, I mean, why not? It makes the game so much better. It's a fun era of higher scoring. And we definitely shouldn't take it for granted because we know what it looks like the other way. Yeah, it's cinema.

It's great. Okay, let's take our break here. And then when we come back, we will finish up with Shana Goldman. You are listening to the HockeyPedocat streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. The most opinionated Canucks show out there. Connect Talk with Jamie Dodd and Thomas Drans.

Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. All right, we're back here in the Hockey P.D.O.cast, joining with Shana Goldman today. Shana. We've been talking kind of a little bit about some of these sort of not fringe teams, but teams on the bubble that are interesting spots. And we mentioned the devils and the flyers. They're out east. But if you look at the West, that's where it really gets, this concept gets really fascinating because you've got this second wildcard battle now that the Kings had a nice weekend themselves and are starting to get back on track and separate themselves a little bit from these teams. You've got the blues, the wild, the predators, throw in the Crackin, the Flames who have already become a seller somewhat, but are still hanging around and winning games. And then you've got the coyotes, and it might be time to sort of start writing them off because they've really gone on this skid here recently, unfortunately. But all these teams are fascinating because they're lumped together.

There's only a couple points separating them. No one really seems that eager beyond the flames so far to take on the role of seller. Part of that might just be playing the waiting game and waiting for prices to come up with desperation rising closer to deadline. But I think part of it is also a lot of these teams are looking at the idea that it's there for the taking to at least get into the playoffs, this idea that anything can happen, the parody, but also getting a couple home games worth of revenue for your owner as well is a very interesting kind of carrot that's dangling in front of them. And so it'll be fascinated to see how these teams act over the next couple of weeks if someone takes on the role and embraces becoming an early adopter as a seller and potentially cashing in or whether we see the fact that it's so bunched together. forcing these teams to basically just stand pad and I guess play the season out. I'm very curious to see what happens with those teams and how it shakes out.

Because right now that battle for the second wild cards part in the West is an absolute mess in the most chaotic and sort of best ways. Yeah, right. This is what we want to see. How often do we hear complaints about the standings being decided way too early in the year? Now there's a legitimate battle. And it's interesting because each of these teams is in a slightly different position, right? you have someone like the blues and the flames where you're like, okay, probably should be sellers.

You have the Cracken and the Predators who are in that mid-tier. You have a team like The Wild, who in theory were built to, you know, compete this year, but have had some flaws too. And it just makes for an exciting race that, I mean, I hope comes down to the wire for the most part, but I think logically I know it shouldn't for some teams. Like you look at some teams right now and you can be like, this is what you should be doing. And this is what you should be taking stock in. and this is what you need to take from your last stretch.

Yeah, I mean, I think what's complicating it is the blues are technically the team that's in pole position right now, I'll just buy a couple points, but they're the ones standing in that second wildcard spot, and Dom's the model has them at a 10% playoff probability, and part of that is because they're a 44% expected goals team, right, and they've been sort of benefiting from strong goal tending. They are a good rush team, and I'm saying that might play a part in that, but yeah, they're clearly very flawed, and then you've got this wild team you mentioned that just hung up, the 10 goals on the Canucks on Monday.

And in particular, since they put together, I wanted to shout them out that Joel Erick, Kiral Kaprizov, Matt Boldi line, they've been phenomenal together. They've played 166-5-15 minutes. They're up 18 to 8 in that time. They've got shares north of 60% across the board. And especially Ericsonek in particular, right?

I think Boldie has come on, and I think we know his potential based on what he's flashed in the past. Caprizo obviously is a household name. but Eric Seneck is quietly on pace for 42 goals now after that monster performance against the Canucks and has his regular just dominant 5-on-5 impacts and he's having a heck of a year. So I wanted to give them a bit of a bit of love because certainly since they put those three together, they've sort of unleashed at least this more potent offensive version of what we're hoping to see from them. And that's given them a different dynamic as a team than maybe they had in the first, whatever, 40 games or so before they put the three together.

Yeah. Joe Larksonak, I feel like, doesn't get enough hype because it's hard when you have Creel Caprice off him out of the front of mind. And, you know, he's thriving. And it's not just because he's around top talent. It obviously is helping him. They're the best line mates he's ever had. But you look at how versatile he is. He was part of that line with Jordan Greenway and Marks Aligno.

And you knew not just that they were going to shut down their opponents, but they were going to wreak havoc in front of the net and generate a lot of scoring chances. And he was a big reason for it. He is this hard-nosed two-way center that is tough to play against, frustrates opponents. is very disciplined in his own rate, draws a lot of penalties, and he is the team's top center, like, without a doubt. And I know, like, the bar is pretty low, but on a, on a true contender, I still think he is, like, two-C caliber behind that elite top center.

But now you have that line going, the way the wild are built, it's, it, everything revolves around Capri's off and bolding, rightfully so. So the fact that they have found a way to get the two going, and it takes powering all three of their best players together is what this team needs to have any shred of success because you look at some of the supporting players that they've locked themselves into. Some of them more perplexing than the others, the commitments that they've made, you know, their middle six is so hamstrung by some of their contracts. But to have those three going is what's going to give this team a chance every single night.

Well, when you've got this, I kind of mentioned it, but with these teams, not necessarily the wild as much, but particularly once you get into like the predators, right, they have so many impending UFAs that they could probably cash in on just like they did last year and get some nice capital for the future. The crack in clearly with Eberley and Justin Schultz and Alex Wemberg and even if they want to make some more extreme decisions with Yanni Gord and Adam Larson being UFA's next summer, I don't think they're going to go that route yet, but they have certainly in play if they want to embrace that sort of seller role.

So you've got these teams that are firmly in the mix for the second wildcards bought in the west, but also might make themselves worse along the way. if they make some of these trades. And the reason why I bring that up is because I think we need to start talking more about this carrot dangling in front of the top teams in the West for winning the one seed, right? Because obviously that ensures that you get home ice through the Western Conference bracket, but also it keeps you out of that two, three battle in your division.

And in both cases, it looks like it's going to be absolutely ruthless, right? You're looking at potentially Vegas first Edmonton in the Pacific and Colorado and Dallas against each other in round one in the central. So you certainly want to stay out of those matchups. And also, if it's the Jets or the Canucks battling for it, and they're both right there, you get one of these teams in round one. And I think that's about as big of a gap

in terms of potentially playing someone else compared to whoever wins this battle for Wildcar 2. That's about as big of a gap as you're going to get in terms of quality of competition in the NHL these days, right? And so I think the incentive is certainly there for these top teams in the West to give it their all and try to get as many points as they can because it ensures about as clean of a path as you could hope for

through at least the first round or so. Yeah, it reminds me of the Predators Against the Aves where, you know, obviously UC Soros got hurt like two days before the playoffs. So it was a little bit different and it was kind of Ingram Net for them. But I think it was like a 12% chance for the Predators according to Dom's model. Like it was the biggest gap ever. So if it could be anything similar, like do you want to take that risk? And, you know, I get it for a team like Minnesota isn't in a position.

to really sell because they made their bed. They extended players like Marksvillino could have been a trade chip. They have those no movement and no trade clauses. They have to manage guys like Alex Kalagoski, you can't move, right? Even if you think we're not going to be good enough. So I kind of get them going for it. The one player potentially they could move.

And who knows if he's going to want to is Mark Andre Flurry. And you don't know how much you can get back for him. You would hope that his veteran status and championship experience would kind of push him over the edge to a team they pay up because the game hasn't been there as much. It's one of his worst seasons yet. So maybe you don't, maybe you still have to go for it and you're stuck in the dreaded middle no matter what you do.

You know, but if you're a team like Nashville, should that kind of convince you? Do you really want to be there when you're a team that has these long term goals? I'm really intrigued what Nashville's going to do here because I feel like they, they kind of started the year in limbo a little bit because you look at the core that they have in place and you have Romaniosi, you have Phil Forsberg, you've UCSaurus, and you added players like Ryan O'Reilly and Luke Shen, like you're not going to be a worst team doing that, but you still have the long-term goals in mind. And a team like Seattle has a lot of intrigue, because unlike the wild, unlike the blues, they have a ton of future assets. They don't need to sell. It's not like

if you don't sell, you're not going to find a way to get yourself better in the next couple years. You could be okay just standing pat. And if you happen to make it so be it, you want to try to be a, you know, a disruptor. You did it last year. Maybe now is the time to. to do it versus a team like the Blues where if you don't sell and if they sell they have to sell pretty big because they don't have that many movable assets either it would be like a pal buchnevich on the market um you know you're going to make yourself a lot worse but can you thread the needle or do you do you go for it and hope that you're shooting look and you're you know saving can keep up even though the five-on-five disparity keeps growing as they're winning games well and i i think a

team that's super interesting not that they're that in the discussion they're kind of on the other side of it, but that framing it through that battle of who can win the West and play one of these teams in round one is the Jets, right? We've already seen them dip into the buyer market and acquiring Sean Monaghan and it's paying dividends for them. He's kind of helped get their power play going and he scored. He had the hat trick against the flames, even though they lost, but he's really kind of delivered, I guess, the past couple games what they were hoping for from him particularly on that end. But Rick Bonas is just is doing it to me again. It's so frustrating because I bought in on this team during that stretch, right? And I was so encouraged by it.

And then since Kyle Connor came back on January 16th, they demoted Nikolai Eilers again. He's playing 1246 to 5-1-5 per game, 1552 overall, which is less than Mason Appleton for some infuriating reason. And they had stumbled upon this combination out of necessity with Kyle Connor out where they played Eilers with Sheifley and Verlardi. And they were dominant together. They had outscoring teams 15 to 4 at 5-on-5 when they played together. And since Kyle Connor come back, they've played them for three seconds for some reason together total in the the past 10 games. And it's just mystifying to me, and particularly with how much is on the line, because they're in a tight battle with Dallas, certainly for the first in the central. They're also

in a battle where they're within distance of the Canucks for first in the West. And they're just not optimizing their lineup right now. And they'll probably make some more trades between now and the March 8th deadline. But every single game that they keep on using their forward this way is a lost opportunity and is very frustrating. And I just want better for them. And maybe I should, I should be disappointed myself for sort of, you know, not expecting this and not anticipating it because Rick Bonas has shown us over the years that he can make frustrating lineup decisions, particularly in terms of risk versus reward. But this is about as blatant a case of that as I can think of because they're just clearly misusing this guy who's their most dynamic player. And it's not like

they're winning in the meantime either, right? They've won some games because the goaltending and defense have been so good. But they've scored 16 goals total in those 10 games. Like, this isn't working and for whatever reason they refuse to go back to what did previously and I'm still holding out with a little bit of hope that we'll eventually see it for one reason or another but every game that goes by that they don't do it just drives me up the wall yeah and i get the idea of you know if they think that they have they tried loading up that top line with valardi and connor at the same time and it was split up immediately because they just weren't good together it's like you need to find these complimentary skill sets and eilers has a little bit of everything in his toolbox 10

make him such a good forward for you, you know, like this, it doesn't make sense for me to see Connor and Valardi in the same combination. You swap one of them with dealers and you already are a step in the right direction. You have someone like Valardi who can put up the shot volume and finish his chances. You have someone like Connor who can do that. Such a versatile goal score, right? He's so good. I don't even think he gets enough. I feel like we never give him enough credit because we focus on the flaws of his game, the defense and rightly so to a point. But like what he can do is so special. If you separate them and have that on two lines, you're doing something right, but why not then have Eilers? Your next, you know, your best all around forward right there. I don't get it. It's more than

one coach doing this, but you look at bonus specifically, you know, you look at Dallas and they were such a one-team line under him, and some of it was the restraints of his roster, but now he shouldn't have that as much in Winnipeg. Like, here it is. You can balance your top six and have two really good lines if you just put together something you know works, which you would think he would do. Think of what he did in Dallas. He knew this long work together and he kept him together and never changed him with Robertson combination. So definitely perplexing, definitely frustrating over and over again with Elyler's usage because it's like we're saying, help us help you. You know, we're not just, we're not just rooting for Eilers to get these minutes because we like him. It's because I think we all see this

potential in him. Like, if there's something we just don't know, I honestly don't get it. I feel like it's been the story of his career at this point. No, it has. And I'm with you on the idea that maybe, you know, nationally we don't give Kyle Connor enough credit. I almost think that in this case, Rick Bonas is giving him too much credit, though, because he's catering every single one of these decisions to making sure that he's, ever since he came back in the lineup, is in the best place to succeed, even if it's coming in spite of the team, right? Like, we're going on a 10-game stretch now where they've scored 11-5 on 5 goals in that time. And so you look at that, and I think the rational conclusion would be, all right, maybe we should. go back to what worked previously. And then if that doesn't work, then we go back to the drawing board. But they haven't for whatever reason been willing to do so. And I find that incredibly

frustrating. And I'm right there with you. Okay, let's take a few more mailback questions here just to mix them in and get a couple different topics before we close out today's show. Curtis says, or asks, who should the stars resigned this summer, Joe Pavelski or Matt Duchesne? That's a tough question. You know what? I think that, I think Duchyne is someone you're going to keep getting at a bargain and I think he's fit really good there. And he's played down the middle there more than he didn't national and it's working out for him. I think for a purely on the ice results answer, it's probably him because I think at this point you could put White Johnson. We saw them do it for a bit and they had some really good results together on that top line

and be fine. I feel like there's a way to do both because I think they'll both be so cheap. You have Duchenne getting paid on his buyout. So if you can't get him for cheap, I wouldn't take too big of a risk on him anyway. But Pavelsky, we all know you can, you know, throw a million performance bonuses into that contract. So even if he's not top line caliber, but he's more middle six, it still works.

If you really had to choose, it might be Duchenne right now because with him, you have Marchman and Sagan going in a way that they weren't before, which is so important to have those two lines. Like that has to be the slight edge, but I choose both. Yeah, I mean, they both. Cheapy.

I guess it depends on the context, right? I think Dom has Pavelsky at a 7.3 market value this year and Matt Ducine at 8.8. So they're both clearly overperforming and providing massive value to this team. They've been able to get Pavelsky on these one year deals the past couple seasons where you keep the salary down, you provide some games played bonuses, which makes sense for a player who's turning 30 or 40 years old this summer. And he clearly, I think, is at the point where he loves it there. And if he's going to keep coming back and playing and he should because he's still performing at a high level,

it seems like it's either Dallas or just take his skates and go home, right? And so I think they should be able to get him for cheaper. I'm curious what happens to Dushain because he does have that buyout money. But he's also 33 years old. So he's in this spot where I think he could, with his performance, this season leverage one more, not high-end deal, but kind of like a medium-term one to close out his career as opposed to being purely a hired gun the way Pavelsky is right now. So I'm curious, but yeah, it seems almost sacriolidious to say because I love Joe Pavelsky so much. And he's been so good in Dallas and both on the ice, right, in terms of his connection with Robertson and hints the past couple years, but everything here off the ice, like he's letting him Wyatt Johnson live with him and showing him the ropes and providing all that like tutelage and veteran leadership and everything.

Like I'm not discounting that by any means. But Dushan say again, and Marchman have been so good. and this team has $14 million or so invested already in Sagan and Marchment and just seeing what Dushain's been able to do for them with his rush game and playmaking and ability to make things easier for them and allow them to be more productive has totally changed this team. And so I'd be very scared about moving on from that, but they clearly have to do something because the cap is one thing. But also I just think opening up roster spots is huge, right?

Like I think we're going to see Logan Stankov and make his debut now with some of the injuries they have, but it's clear that both him and Maverick Bork have sort of outgrown the HL already. They've been so productive there. And next year, they're going to need everyday roles on this stars team. And you mentioned Wyatt Johnston. He probably just should be playing full time with Hinson Robertson at this point based on what we saw from the three of those together.

So clearing up space to incorporate those young players in high leverage roles is a big deal, almost important as the actual money consideration. So yeah, a lot of moving parts there. But I'm very curious to see how that unfolds. of the stars. Do you want to do a quick note on Maddie Baneers? Because I got some questions about him as well just because clearly based on his season last year, winning the Calder and scoring 25 goals or so, there were high expectations for him. And he has not produced offensively this season, but you and Dom wrote up a great piece in the athletic about his defensive

play. And I wanted to shout that out a little bit because I'm still sort of undeterred in my belief and love for his game. And even though the production, offensively hasn't been there. I think there's a lot of very encouraging signs about his game moving forward. Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, the defense in his game that we're seeing isn't out of nowhere. It's something that was there last year, too, but we were so focused on the offense because the offense is more eye-catching, right? It's, it's tougher to pinpoint and say, hey, look at his workload at retrieving pucks and exiting the zone when he's putting up numbers that are going to win him a caller trophy, and I understand that. I think with young players,

the offensive side of their game tends to come. Players, top, top, you know, prospects and young players, it's the offense we focus on, and usually the defense's something that they have to work on. And that's sometimes the difference between them getting a real top six opportunity versus a third line role because the coach feels that they have to be sheltered and things like that.

And what we're seeing from Baneers, you know, he doesn't go up against the toughest competition in Seattle. It's, you know, around average. But he's playing the game so well in his own zone and making these key plays that make him that show that's SELky potential, that two-way potential. It's stuff you see from Barkoff.

It's stuff you see from Sean Kutriere. So the fact that that side of his game is developing at the rate that it has is so impressive because we know the offense is there. Sure, this year he's taken a step back. He's not shooting the puck as much. The quality chances aren't there. The results aren't there.

But I don't hold that against him. I think it's a team-wide thing. It's like we're seeing their shooting percentage kind of regress from last year's over, performing so much. You know, you look at last year and how well they performed on the power play when they probably shouldn't have. And now it's kind of biting them this year. Like everything's regulating a little bit more. Um, but the fact that he has this like foundation in his game back in his own zone is going to make him a better 200 foot player. And that's going to bode really

well for his development. No, certainly. And he's shooting 8.4 himself. But I think the bigger killer is they have like a 6% 515 on a shooting percentage with him out there. And he's only got the one secondary assist to kind of float his totals as well. So, I'm really not holding that against them either. They don't generate quality looks offensively, and that's a problem for them to figure out, certainly. But a lot of what they do well and why they're hanging on this playoff race is because their defensive environment is so good.

And his responsibility in that is huge, especially for a young player. And that takes its cumulative toll as well, right? Like we talk about Barkov all the time where maybe if he had a bit less of a defensive conscience and was just willing to take more chances, he probably, with his skill level, could produce more offensively, certainly, right? but he chooses not to for the betterment of the team. And I feel like that's what happened in a little bit here. Like he still needs to produce more offensively, certainly eight goals in 50 games is not good enough.

But also we need to account for the fact that he's constantly going back and being super deep in his own and having to make a bunch of good plays just to get them out with possession. And then to expect him to also do all the work on the other end of the ice might be a bit too ambitious right now. So something to keep in mind when evaluating him, but I'm curious to see how this unfolds for him. Okay, Shane, we got to get out of here. I'll let you quickly plug some stuff on the way out. Let the listeners know where they can check you out. You can find all my work at the Athletic. I have Fancy Hockey stuff, trade deadline stuff,

a little bit of everything coming out the next few weeks, including something on Meekis Abanaged out this week. So you can keep an eye out for that. Awesome, Shane. I was a blast to have you on. We'll have you on again soon. Thank you for coming on. And thank you to our listeners for listening to us,

and we'll be back soon with plenty more of the Hockey Ocasst Streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.