The Hockey PDOcast - The Bull vs. Bear Case for Each Contender in the West

Episode Date: December 27, 2023

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to work through the respective reasons why you should either be very high or potentially concerned about the outlook for each Western Conference contender this season. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich, and joining me is my good buddy Thomas Drands, Tom. What's going on? Oh, no much, bud. I think last time we spoke, actually, you said that the sample size you like to, you prefer to have a confidence in a team's performance is around the 30-gmark. Yeah. And that's pretty much exactly where we are right now, essentially every team, except for I believe

the Ottawa senators have played at least 30 games so far this season. And so what we're going to do is we're going to go through the Western Conference today. Initially, I thought we did the full league, but I think we should split this up just so we can have a thorough and proper conversation and give each team its due diligence. And so we're going to start with the West today. When we come back in the new year, you and I will reconvene and we'll do the East. And we're going to go through the top teams, the ones that we believe will factor into the Stanley Cup conversation and have a legitimate chance to compete for the Stanley Cup this season. and we're going to present the bear and the bull case for each one in terms of why if you want to talk yourself into being high on them as a contender, you can.

And if there's some reservation or red flags or reasons for potential concern, why that would be the case too. Let's go. So who do you want to start with? Do you want to do this in terms of division? Do you want to do it in terms of the betting odds, how the market sees these teams? Yeah, well, so first of all, if you go to bet, the Stanley Cup winner will come from which conference, right? you'll get longer odds out of the east than you will out of the west.

Like the west is seen mildly by Vegas as the like stronger division, right? The winning conference east minus 125, west minus 105, which is like roughly pick them. But the fact is that, sorry, I've got that wrong. the west is seen as having longer odds to win the Stanley Cup and I actually think it's pretty much the same it's 50 it's pretty close but I actually think that's wrong like I think there's value in the West because I think these Western teams are stronger like across the board I think the West is stronger than the East this year and so I am really curious to see this race it feels like the Pacific in particular with the top three teams and then Edmonton is a dark horse I mean I mean, that is an absolute gauntlet. And then you look at the Central and those top three teams, I mean, Winnipeg's been playing great hockey. Why don't we go with the odds to win the conference and start with plus $450 is the two sort of favorites tied?

Let's begin out of respect for the defending champs with the Vegas Golden Knights. Well, here's just my one quick point on that. I guess you could look at it from the perspective of there's a real case to be made right now that like the five best teams in the league are in the West. I think so. Like as of right now in terms of how they're playing, I know that the Rangers and the Bruins, I believe, are one, two and point percentage in the league, but just in terms of depth and quality.

And their profile. Like those teams profile as the sorts of teams that we often see stride into the playoffs with 115 points and then struggle to get it done because they don't control play that well five on five. Yes. And I guess what the issue, though, is that the gauntlet you're going to have to run

if you're one of these Pacific teams where you could conceivably be playing, like the third best team in the league in round one. Yeah. And then like the second best team in round two, potentially, depending on how it shakes out, just to get to the West final. These teams have depth, but certainly you can make the case that if you get hot in the east right now, you could have a smoother ride and be in better shape heading into whatever Stanley Cup final match I'd be getting to. So I think that would be the logic there. But certainly, I think a lot of the power right now resides in the West, let's do the biggest golden nights.

I actually had them last on my list here. I didn't sort them in terms of my preference for them, it's just the way that I wrote it out. but that's fine. They're 21, 8, and 5 right now, plus 25 goal differential. I mean, it's about as well-rounded a team as you're going to see, right? Yeah. Their seventh, inexpected goals generated. Their fifth, in expected goals against the loud.

They're 11th on the powerplay, eighth on the penalty kill. They're essentially a top-10 team in like every single category you could think of. They've got the depth. Right now, they're using Yuri Patera in net because Aden Hills out. they don't want to ride Logan Thompson too much. It doesn't matter. Like I know they've given up a bunch of goals recently, but they're playing the long game.

I guess what's the, okay, so the bull case here is they're the team they were last year, and you can make a case that once Theodore comes back based on how he was playing prior to getting hurt, they could be even better because he was sort of a limited version of himself last year when they won the Stanley Cup, and he's such a difference maker. So this team, as good as it was last year, brought everyone back and could conceivably be even better. Yeah, I mean, that's a pretty compelling bull case. I think the bull case is, you know, that we have watched this team. We're used to seeing Stanley Cup champions put it in cruise control, right?

In the next season, especially in the early part. Vegas has a 691 point percentage, right? 47 points in 34 games. What if this is them in cruise control? To me, that's the scary, I think. Like, we know what this team's fastball looks like. We know it's virtually unhittable. and yet I don't know that we're seeing their best night to night yet.

I'd add this. I'd add this. I think Jack Eichols become a totally different caliber of player. Not that he wasn't, like I was always a believer. I always thought he was great. But seeing him live the one time I've seen him watching this Vegas Golden Knights team play, it feels like his control of games. Like he's at a puppet master stage of his career at this point.

it honestly reminds me a little bit of like prime Joe Thornton except he's got the cup. Yeah. I mean, I think they have a top 10 player. I think they have the most forward depth in the league. And I think they have the best blue line in the league. And then Aiden Hills got a 9-3-4 save percentage following up his incredible run in the Stanley Cup final last year, which is, you know, the best save percentage you'll find from any goalie making over four and a half in terms of their cap it an incredibly complete team. Well, and with Eichel now, they're using him in a different way too, right? All of a sudden, now we're seeing them, you know, he had so much success with Barbersheb and Marshall's Soul last year as that line. Now they're using him with how they play off of each other. They're using, he's replaced Riley Smith with William Carlson on the penalty kill. And those two guys, it seems like they create a breakaway chance short-handed every time they're out there.

So, yeah, I mean, they've kind of figured out, they've calibrated themselves perfectly for hitting all the right notes. I think the scary thing about them is Braden McNabb is the only defenseman on the team that, has not only played every game, but like every other guy has missed at least five games, right? Patrangelo, Martinez, Theodore, Nick Haig, White Cloud,

all those guys have been out for extended periods of time throughout this season, and they're still generating these results. So that would temper whatever your bear case would be against them, right? Because for me, it would be, all right,

this team has quite a few guys who are either in their 30s or have had previous serious health issues. And that's always scary when you're relying on that for four more rounds come the playoffs. But if any team could survive an injury to a key player along the way, it's this one. Well, we've already seen it. I think Che Theodore is their most important defenseman. He was hurt throughout the playoffs last year, right?

He didn't have that wrist shot. Like he didn't have the usual velocity on his shot that he does. He was playing third pair of minutes. Didn't matter. And now he's been out of the lineup in the early going. and they're still one of the five best teams in the league. I mean, honestly, how many teams can lose a Shea Theodore caliber player and still be great? Well, and all these guys, look at the usage, right?

Petrangelo plays 24 minutes or whatever, but even he at 5-1-5 isn't even like the top 70 in the league in terms of usage. And then you've got Shea Theodore who's out now at 23, 23, Ikela at 2030, and no one else plays 20 minutes, right? So if you want to say, all right, there's guys with injury histories or age-related concerns, if anyone can mitigate that by just not exposing them to too much, it's this team and they're doing that, right? And that's kind of the success of last year where they were able to basically just balance out all three pairs and all four lines throughout.

And so they were as fresh as possible by the time they got their Stanley Cup final. Well, look at the discipline with which they're sticking with Peturca, right? I mean, they know the value of having a fresh goalie in the playoffs because they had the fresh goalie in the playoffs last year and he out dualed Jake Ottinger, right? I mean, and then you think about the depth up front. right? I mean, between that sort of like Carrier-Wah-Kolassar line, right? They have an

unbelievable fourth line, but if you need to play Nick Waan, your top six, which means four forward slots ahead of where he plays, you're literally zero percent concerned about it. He's like an above-average second line forward in two different spots, like both on the wing and at center. I don't think people appreciate that Chandler Stevenson's like a top 10 5 on 5 point score over a multi-season sort of haul of points. Like just because he's not a power play stud doesn't mean that he's not a bona fide first-line center. Same goes for William Carlson. I mean, it's just dizzying how much this team has.

Yep. Okay, let's keep it moving. I think everyone knows what to expect of the goal nights. Well, I just on the, I'm really quickly on the bear case. Yeah. It's health. I guess the bear a case for everyone. And I think one other thing, which is that to this point in the season,

they haven't been a lead under the hood. Like through 30 games, we haven't seen this team dominate play. I think they have, though. Like I just said, I think they're fifth and expected goals against and seventh and expected goals generated. Like, they dominate the quality still at both ends of the ice. But they also usually dominate the shot attempts. And they have it.

They do. But last year, they definitely took a step back in that regard. And I think it was by design. I agree with you. I'm not worried about it. that. I'm not fully worried about it, but I am noting it. I think, I think partly why I'm buying the bull cases that I've seen this team's fastball, but on form to this point in the season, you know, I worry that there's a real possibility. They're the third best team in their own

division. Yeah. I see that. They're just still, they're still the smoothest transition team in the league. And they're like, they're whatever the, uh, the perfectly calibrated version of that, like, analytics Rockets team under Daryl Morey and James Hardin where it was like threes and dunks essentially, right? For them, it's either a great rush shot or everything in the paint. Yeah.

Like there's no, they've cut out all that other fluff and riffraff on the outside, same with defensively. And so it's a well-oed machine. I buy the Golden Knights case, but I do think it's worth noting that partly, you know, we are giving them the benefit of the doubt because they haven't had elite form

to this point in the season. Well, let's go to the Kings then because they're all not only in the same division. Go do the Kings instead of the Aves? I was going to just do all Pacific Division teams, but also I think the parallels between those two teams, and we've discussed why a playoff series between them would be so riveting because they're just mirror images of each other from stylistically how they're playing. And how they're built. Yeah.

Like, I think the fact that they're mirror images of each other is self-conscious, especially on the part of the LA Kings. Except for the Kings, and we've spoken about this, continue to be made. massively underrated by the market. They've come up a bit, but there's still barely a top 10 team in terms of Stanley Cup odds. And to me, that does not line up with anything we've seen this season and any projection moving forward because for whatever reason, there's still a level of disrespect because of like the high-end talent. But with what we've seen from the top line with Quentin Bifield leveling up, I know

Peir Luke DuBal has been a disappointment and easy to get your jokes off. I still think that represents an interesting wrinkle to them in the playoffs and then with Kevin Fiala of course and the blue line I don't think there really is that lack of high in talent at the top of the lineup if you're telling me this this first line is going to perform the way they have so let's go with the bear versus bull case I mean yeah the just really quickly I want to say about Pierre Luc Dubois six and a half on a shooting clip that's it yeah and what we're seeing and he's playing with he's playing with a rookie and alex lafairier and Arthur Calliyev, right?

Like, yeah. And they brought him in not to dominate in game 30 of the regular season, but hopefully turn it on and play some bully, and play some bully ball. Yeah. And get higher danger opportunities around the net and TBD on that. But I'm not, we're going to just close the door on that because we haven't seen it in the first 25 games, right? I think, I think he's been way better than the results indicate.

And I think the, uh, the truth of that will show. Um, as we go down the line, you're right, though, about the market disrespecting them like plus 650 to win the west uh only like of this seven the seven teams will discuss only edmonton and vancouver have lower odds now maybe Vegas is a homer for the Vegas cold nights but i doubt it um you know i i i don't understand how like winnipeg should have better odds to win the conference than them what are they right now 13-o-1 or something like that to win the west no to win the cup oh to win the cup i will check but to win the west they're uh they're six six and a half to one.

Right. And to win, like, the outright winner, sorry. Last time we spoke, which was like three weeks ago around American Thanksgiving, I believe they were 17 to 1. And at the time, we highlighted them as if you're into this sort of thing, you should be all over it. Buying some king stock. And I think they've gone up to like 13 to 1 or so since then.

14. 14. Yes. Which is still, it's come up and it's still not nearly enough. Right. That makes them like the eighth or ninth or 10th best team. And that's just not the case. Well, this is the thing, right?

Like the kings, unlike the, like the kings have had some bounces in their favor. Certainly, I don't expect their, you know, their goaltending to be this good all season long. I'm not saying Cam Talbot's going to turn into a pumpkin or whatever, but I mean, they've had above average goaltending. You know, they've been a pretty high PDO team for most of the year. But under the hood, like the kings look like the class of the West. I mean, they're controlling play better. they're controlling expected goals better. They're controlling everything you want to see a team control five on five better than Vegas, materially better than Vegas, better than Colorado.

And then you watch them play and it looks complete, right? The mobile D, the way that they're able to generate offensively in a far more sophisticated way than they have been in the past, where it was like good structural hockey, they work hard, it's a disciplined team, they're defensively sound. But there wasn't any pizzazz, dazzle, byfield, Dubois, I think. think have given them more of that, not to mention, you know, Fiala being completely healthy, I think has made a world a difference unsurprisingly. I just can't see a flaw with this team other than in that. Best team in the league defensively. Sport logic has them first and expected goals against, first in slot shots against,

first and total shots against, fourth in a ozone time surrendered. Now, yes, 926 and a plus six goals able to expect him from Camtow, but is obviously on the high end that I wouldn't expect that moving forward. I think the bigger concern for me with Copley out now is that he's already. banked 20 starts so far this season. And at his age, I don't really want, if you view Talbot as being your playoff goalie, I don't want

him getting into some crazy games play total in the regular season. Do you think they do Talbot as their playoff goalie? I don't. They're going to add a body. Well, I think they're sniffing around Jacob Markstrom. But that would obviously be like a big splash. I don't think that's even necessary for this team because the defensive environment is so great.

And he's actually a goalie, I think, who kind of struggles with. Sound defense. You almost want Markstrom behind a running game. I don't want him, of falling asleep and then giving up a point shot for no reason. I want Markstrom for the devils. Yes. Yeah. But I think they're exploring everything because I think they are about as all in as you can be.

I know like the Dubois trade, for example, like he's like, what, 25, 26? Like it's not a one year move. No. But like they're pretty serious about not being a good regular season team who loses again to a more star power team in round one. Like I think they desperately want to take that next step. Well, and they should be. Like they should be.

I think they're ready to be. I look at this team and all I see is Bull case. Like this, I think they're going to win the Pacific. I think they're the best team in the Pacific. You know, the only, the only doubt I have is that we're only seeing Vegas at like a 70% canter. That's my only, like for me, that's the bear case on the Kings is we haven't seen Vegas throw their fastball yet. The bear case for me, I know there's sixth in the league and goals scored this season. They're like 18th in power play efficiency.

and if you look, they still rely on volume quite a bit. Yeah. Like they're middle of the pack in terms of slot and inner slot shot stuff. And that worries me a little bit because while, you know, I think the top line, like with the way by field's passing, like the other night, he's like doing no look through the legs, passes. And it's like he's on another level right now. He gives them that dynamic playmaker. If Dubois doesn't level up, though, and give them what they thought they were getting, I'm still a little bit worried in terms of, like you watch that Cracken game. and they dominated it, but they were being pushed a lot to the outside.

There was a lot of cycling the puck around, taking a low percentage shot. It was. But I think that's like in the back of my mind. That's still my only real lingering concern, much more than whoever they have a net or or anything, because I think you or I could have a 915% percentage there. Like they don't give up anything. Like it's immaculate. I could only do it because of my girth.

Yeah. Just stand there and soak up some shots. Like Martin Prince and The Simpsons episode. really quickly just want to talk about Byfield because with the puck you're mentioning

through the legs passes the flash that he's got the comp that I see when I watch him play with the puck is like prime Mike Hoffman like Ottawa Senators

deep playoff run version of Mike Hoffman just in that you know he doesn't have the speed game they're not similar in terms of their profile obviously Hoffman

had the perimeter shot but it was like that ineffable unguardability that and the willingness, the creativity to try stuff that Byfield has that really reminds me of Hoffman, but where Byfield's, I think, taken that extra level where I start to really look sort of cross-eyed at what his potential ceiling could be. It's the off-puck stuff. It's the forecheck stuff. It's how disruptive he has been away from the puck and then how he can leverage that to quickly turn it into quick strike offense.

I mean, I think there's a possibility that we're seeing the start of something really special for him. Yeah, I mean, he's like, with his playmaking at that size and his puck protection, I think we can go above prime Mike Hoff. And I get what you're saying, but we could go like Joe Thornton. Oh, I mean, Comps in his draft year were Evgeny Malta. Yeah. And given that it took him so long to arrive as, you know, even a top end performer or like a top six, performer or a top line performer however you want to rate him now i think the chances of him actually hitting that ceiling are low right but if he was ever going to well that's a historical great

yeah a hundred percent but i'm saying if he was ever going to this is what it would start to look like yeah yeah i mean everything we've seen this season i just want i just want more of it yeah just hook me up um okay we got time for one more team before we go to break here okay do you want to stick with the pacific division or do you want to get into the central a little bit and mix and match yeah Let's, well, no, let's do the, let's do the Oilers, I think. I mean, I know that's a primetime team to talk about. So if you want more time. Well, we can do a full show on that, but no, let's do it.

Yeah. So 14, 15 and 1 right now, 25th in the league and point percentage, a net neutral of goal differential. 10 of their 14 wins have been by three or more goals. Nine of their 15 losses have been by more than three goals. It's been about as high and low as you're going to get. Since the coaching change, though, 11 and 6, plus. a 16 goal differential, and here's the kicker, Tom. I think this is what's really made a difference in it unlock them.

So under Jay Woodcroft to start the year, the combination of McDavid, R&H, and Hyman play 28 total seconds at 515 as a line. Under an all block, 133 minutes. Here are the numbers for you. Shots on goal, 110 to 48. This is at 515. Ew. High danger chances, 58 to 12.

a 78.1% expected goal share and the goals are 15 to 5. And then if you want to cut it in an even finer, when they're out there with the at home Bouchard pairing in 93 minutes, they have an 82.8% expected goal share. Jeez. That's insane. This is 515. Now, obviously, I think the difference is,

certainly McDavid, but also at home, are significantly healthier than they were. Than they were at the start of the season. So I think that makes a big difference. I don't want to act like, No, Box, a genius here by getting McDavid to play this well. I think that's the elephant to room. But you're seeing that burst again, right?

We lamented at the start of the year where McDavid was still for a mere mortal really good, but he wasn't like getting around people and just treating them like minor inconveniences along his way to the net as opposed to actual roadblocks. And now he's doing that again. Like people are just bouncing off of him. He's getting to wherever he wants to get to. And so if he's going to play this well, I'm still wary of this team because the goal tending and because it seems like this is just the season from hell.

But every underlying marker suggests that this is one of the best teams in the league. I'm not worried about it. I have sold zero oiler stock. I came into the season thinking they were one of the best teams in the league and they hit an absolute dismal stretch. I mean, there's no way to understate it. They almost frittered away their entire. season. Even after the sharks lost, you were still buying stock?

I was still holding. Right. 100% well. But partly at that point, because there was nothing to do with that distressed stock. No, but also because they were a lead under the hood.

Like, you know, it takes me 30 games. You're calling your portfolio manager being like, you can't win them all. I mean, that's what they're telling me about my crack and stuff. But the, but the Oilers, the Oilers played 15 games, a lead

under the hood with absolutely zero results. and, you know, there's a reason I wait for 30 games. Like now we've seen enough of the bull case from the Oilers over the last 15 games, the second half, that I think we have a good sense that, hey, this team is flawed. There are issues, especially in net, but the fundamentals of what they're able to do, especially at the top of the lineup, are so impressive that no one's going to be shocked if they win at 115 point pace between now and the end of the year.

Vegas isn't going to be shocked. Vegas has never sold their stock either. And there's real money on the line. Like, I look at Echon Bouchard, you know, they're plus 200 in shot attempts. And they're basically a five, like a 50-50 goals for, goals against line. They've survived. The fact that they've survived to be sort of positive goal differential contributors with the underlying environment they've been dealt in terms of the quality of goaltending,

even a low shooting percentage amazing, given how often they share the ice with McDavid. Like, we're going to get a stretch of 15 games where the Oilers are like plus 20 with that pair on the ice. And when that happens, this team's going to be, I mean, they're just going to eat. Like, they're just going to eat. I have no doubt about it. I mean, David has 33 points in his past 17 games.

He afforded everyone such a head start. And yet he's still the betting favorite for the heart. And he's like 14 points behind Kutraoff, but in five fewer games and also it's McDavid. So I would never bet against him. We'll talk about it when we get to the abs, but Nathan McKinnon's currently fifth in Hart Trophy voting, and I feel like people should be buying that. Yeah, I mean, we will talk about that. Their fourth unexpected goals against defensively, so despite all the concerns about the goal tank and everything, they've gotten much better in their biggest weakness, which is rush defense as a coaching change. Their first in like every offensive category in terms of underlying numbers, right?

And the power play is top five again. My concern here is there's two weaknesses on this roster beyond the goaltending. And that's like an easy one. I don't, if you address the other stuff, I don't even think it's that big of a concern because the firepower is just so good. And it's second pair of right D because Cody C.C. And there's even after the coaching change are still below 50% in everything. And another top six winger, especially if you're going to use your forward lines this way,

that can play with dry saddle and cane and maximize those minutes offensively, right? And for me, for all the issues with this Ken Holland era and every blunder he's made along the way, the fact that they spent the eighth, 14th, and 22nd overall pick in three straight drafts and weren't able to mine either of those needs is a massive failure, right?

And I'm not like writing off Holloway and Borgow yet. I think Broberg at this point, at least in Edmonton, is fair to write off. But the fact that they didn't either draft develop or then monetize any of those guys into someone who could help in that capacity is an issue, right? Like obviously...

Yeah. Not that they have the value that they would have as raw, uncut draft picks, draft capital. Yeah. You know, they're more like gift cards

than cash on hand now. I still think you should. I mean, there's still a rare profile in Holloway, you know, but yeah, Borgos, like one of those classic,

like in two years, he'll surface is a really good bottom six forward. And it's just like, yeah, it's too late for this team, though, like they can't wait two years.

No, they have to, but that's what I'm saying. They should, they should aggressively go about monetizing. And one thing that I'd be sort of concerned about is, you know, there's some uncertainty around Holland's future. What happens after this year?

We know they have a new president. But like, I don't even think you need the answer in that. I think you need a goalie that guys believe in to turn things around. And yeah, I think you're right. They could use some depth to reinforcements, both on the back end and up front. Okay. So the two wild cards right now at time recording, predators and coyotes. The predators, 38 points in 33 games.

The coyotes, 36 and 30. the Oilers themselves of 29 and 30. Dom's model still has the Oilers 66%. I think the Oilers are going to face the winner of the central. And here's a thing. Not only is there so much runway left, but they have three head to heads with the coyotes left. They have three head to heads with like the flames who are slightly ahead of them right now.

And it's hilarious. We talk all the time about how like the rewards structure isn't nearly enough right now for like regular season dominance. Imagine winning the West or when and just and then having. to play them in round one. Oh, I know. I know. It's just, it's going to be a hilarious conversation to have in a couple months.

Okay, Tom, let's take a break here. And then when we come back, we will keep going with our Western Conference teams. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right. We're back here on the Hockey P.D.O. cast with Thomas Drans. Tom, we've done the Golden Knights, the Kings, the Oilers. Do you want to do my final Pacific Division team here before we rattle off the central ones? I know you love talking about the Vancouver Canucks, of course.

So I think it's time for us to do that. 22, 9 and 3, first in the West now in point percentage, plus 44 goal differential, which leads the league. First in team shooting percentage, 13.4%. Second in team save percentage, 918. Yet I still think we've had these debates for weeks now. And I still think despite the PEO concerns and despite the percentages, is this team is trending in a direction where I think they are better than you seem to.

Yes, I think you. I'm not out. I'm just not nearly as high on them as you are. I think this team's probably the team we disagree on the most in the last. Well, the stars are going to come up in a second here. Okay, fair enough. Well, do you want to talk about the injury? Do you want to talk about what's changed?

Sure. So. No, go for it. But you have good takes. I'll answer you. No, well, I wanted to break this down like offensively, defensively, and then where I'm at with this team. Okay.

So offensively, I think the fact that they are 32nd in rush chances, yet first in goals, because every time they get a rush opportunity, they're scoring. And lately it's been bottom six guys. It's not even the players you'd expect to score on those opportunities. Is something where I'm very dubious of that continuing, certainly, right? It's like, all right, this, they can't keep getting away with it.

They can't. Yet, they've risen to the point where they are, like, they're 27th in attempts and 28th and raw shots, right? And so you look at that and you're like, all right, high shooting percentage, low volume, yet still scoring goals. We know what happens here. But the profile here is interesting to me because I think, like, it's by design. I don't think, like, this is, I don't think they fell backwards into this by accident.

Like, I think Rick Tocke very clearly looked at this team and was like, I want us to play a certain way and then he's getting them to play that way. Yeah, I agree with that. They're fourth and offensive zone time. Okay. They are 10th and inner slot shots. They are third and four check chances, sixth and rebounds, and ninth off the cycle. Like, they clearly just want to grind out possessions not only to insulate whatever concerns they have with Blue Lion's speed, but also because that's sort of the personnel they have because they only really have a few players who would benefit in playing an up and down high-octane style.

Yeah. And so I think that's right. I think that's probably what they should be playing. And with Demko and Nett playing the way he is, I don't expect Casey to Smith being a 925 goalie every time he plays, certainly. But the other function of this is they've led for like 47% of their game so far, and that's going to lead to sort of extreme highs and lows

in terms of like percentages and efficiency and all that. We know that. So they've come up a bit on the cycle. slot, the inner slot shots and stuff. Yeah, they have, yeah. Um, which is, which is a good sign. But a lot of it is like is the rebounds and stuff, right? And for like, the types of chances they're generating are typically ones around the net, which is hit or miss in terms of both being able to sustain it for a full season because those are effort-based metrics and it's tough to do. And if you have injuries, you can be really screwed in that regard, but also

the efficiency of it. This is where like, it's about margins, right? Like this team, for me, it's about margins when it comes to the Canucks. When I look at this team and when I watch this team play, there's a lot of good hockey being played. And I don't want to take that away from them. You know, I think the hockey we're seeing certainly from the Canucks third line. Right. You know, is impressive. And I think a lot of the reason they're probably a little hot coming up a bit in terms of

quality is like that line's legitimately generating quality looks at an extremely high rate. Right. And they're beginning to get rewarded for it. The top six is not generating enough in terms of that quality. stuff. There's a lot of offensive zone possessions that kind of go nowhere or result in like a deflection or a fortunate goal. I'm seeing way too much one and done from this team. And they're just lucky because a lot of that, in my opinion, because a lot of that one and done ends up in the back of the net. A lot of rush, risk shot goals. Like a lot of the goals that the Canucks are scoring are

goals that over the years I've trained myself to not read into. I've trained myself to be like, that's the one-off stuff that will trick you if you buy it. Yep. And, and, and, his team's living off of it. So that's sort of my, you know, it's not a pure like PDO take. It's, it's literally what I'm seeing is not enough good offense, especially when Vancouver's best players are on the ice five on five. They have a lot of outs, right? Like there are, there are real strengths of this team that I believe in terms of the power play, which actually hasn't been hot of like for a month now, but I still believe in, um, in terms of the, the star level contributors, the goalies. I believe in their defense, but there are so many stretches.

Like in Dallas on Thursday night, where over the course of a long season, most of the time, if you get speedbagged like that for 30 minutes, you're down three nothing, right? But the Canucks are down one. And partly that's a reflection of their goaltending talent. Partly it's a reflection of their defensive play. But also partly at some point, if you keep getting away with that, you're not going to. And if you keep scoring this efficiently, that's not going to last. So if you're a little bit lucky in a lot of areas, right? And the Canucks have been remarkably healthy, especially at the top of the lineup.

They've been remarkably fortunate in terms of the chances they're finishing. They've been remarkably fortunate in terms of the saves they're getting, even if it is partly the product of really good goaltending and really good defensive play. Both of both factors of this team that I absolutely buy. It's hard to, over the course of 82 games, rely on being a little bit lucky literally everywhere to drive. Now, granted, league best margins because they're first and goal differential, it can be hard to see how you like eat away at it. But it's just as the margins get slimmer, right, the game that becomes, you know, a four two win earlier in the season, all of a sudden is a three two lead and Dallas scores with three to go and then you lose an overtime, right? And a slow drip accumulation of that as breaks start to go against you, cause you to clearly be not an elite team.

I think they're the, I think they're going to cruise into third in the Pacific. I think it's going to be a remarkable season for this team, but I don't look at this team and see, like I don't even see the bull case for them as a contender. Well, I mean, we had to include them on this list. They literally are first in the West, right now, no, no, I mean, 100%. I'm not saying, I'm not saying they don't belong in the conversation, but I'm saying I don't, I don't find the bull case for them as a breakthrough contender compelling, short of them adding a number. additional top six forward who can both drive play and eat right yeah no i'm with you on that and you mentioned like there's stretches where they're getting speedbagged and they come out of it being down just one instead of down three they're coming out of these stretches being up up yeah no i know

it's like nothing happens for seven minutes and i think they're a good counter punching team like i don't think it's no but there's ones where like the puck's like bounces out in front of the net and neils and mawn is there for a tad minutes is like all right that's they didn't know i know they didn't do anything to generate that it just happened yeah and and they've had a lot of those in succession so i'm with I just think, like, listen, my bull case isn't that they're a 22, 9, and 3 true talent level team with a plus 44 goal differential. Mine is that they're better than I thought they'd be and that they're like a 17, whatever the equivalent is. They're like an 18, 13 and 4 team or something, which is still really good. I would have told coming into the season that they're a fringe playoff team.

Right. And I was wrong. They're a clear playoff team. And I think they're a clear playoff team on true talent. Right. In a way that I didn't expect, especially with the upgrade in terms of how they control play as a result of Talkett's impact. Like I was too low too on Talkett's impact and Talkett's impact on the core group, right? Because, you know, I didn't see Quinn Hughes. I always thought Quinn Hughes could be like a Norris caliber defenseman. I didn't think he could be, or at least I didn't expect him to be like one of the five most valuable skaters in the sport, right? And that's what he's been this season. So there's been a lot that surprised me about this team pleasantly. I just, I'm watching and I see good hockey, but I don't see sustainable

contender level hockey. Okay. We're going to have, we're going to keep on on this all year. This isn't Canucks talk, though. So we have to go and move on to our teams. We have like 15 minutes left for three teams. I've just upset so many people listening over the holidays, by the way, who are like, let us have sports happiness. And I just want to know. The Grinch just coming down. For everyone who says I'm negative, like if the Canucks were an out of market team that I wasn't, you know, paid to follow obsessively. I would be outright dismissive of the idea that they're a contender. And for longtime listeners of me, they'll know, like, it's a profile thing.

Like, I'm pretty dismissive of the Bruins and Rangers for similar reasons. I like teams that control play five-on-five better. I think those are the teams that tend to really win. The Canucks don't look like one of those teams. Okay. Well, let's talk about another team that you're outright dismissive of unfairly so. The Dallas Stars, who are 19, 8, and 4, 6th and point percentage. plus 12 goal differential.

So here's the thing for me. My goal for them heading into the season because I expect them to be a good team again was I wanted to see them experiment on the margins with giving their young players as much rope as possible to see if they could step up and take control and fill in and supplement the top players they already have. Now, Logan Stancovin and Maverick Borough are just eating in the H.L. And they're just like biting their time until they come up. and I think we will hear from at least one of them, probably Bork, I imagine, first,

because it was two-way game at some point this season. Yeah. Right. The defense, though, we, like, we need to have a Thomas Harley conversation because no defenseman in the league right now is more goal scored than him. He died with Quinn Hughes, right? Or did he last? Him and Dahlia and Hughes all of nine. Yeah.

But he's playing like six minutes per night less than him. Yeah. He's playing 1827 per night, right? And that's a step up from last year. He's up to third on the team in 515 usage. Like he's bridged the gap between him and Souter from last year, so it's not nearly as drastic as it was. But I still think it's not nearly enough.

Like I think Pete DeBurr, for the final 50 games of the season, simply has to. Like if I'm in that front office, I'm just sitting him down on being like, Pete, we have to every night find a way for Thomas Harley to play 23 minutes today. Like it's just unfeasible. It's unacceptable. Unconscionable.

He was certainly. Certainly the best of the stars defensemen, especially because I don't think Mero Haskinin was like dialed in offensively. Well, it's tough to be when you're playing with Ryan Suter. Like he's not good. Like it has to stop. Well, I will say like when I watch Harley and Hayskinin, you know, and I see the impact like, we're seeing the impact of Horonick with Hughes. But the fact is, is that Hughes managed these types of results last year with Ethan Bear. Right?

Like, you don't need the perfect guy. If you have a high-end puck-moving defenseman, we've seen it with Taves and McCar, most successfully. We saw it with Bear and Hughes, which is why I'd make the case on Harley, even if you reject or Dallas rejects the premise of him being, like, elite, if that's how they view Philipronic. You know, the fact is that when we had this idea that Quinn Hughes

had to play with a defensive guy, and in fact, he was unleashed in terms of his influence. impact, like putting him with a puck mover amplified his ability to control play, to play in the offensive zone, to defend 150 feet away from his net. I look at Harley and I think, man, the stars are missing out an opportunity here to have a similar impact with Hayskin. Well, here's the thing. He's played 80 minutes so far at 5.15 with Hayskinnan this year.

And a lot of it is like either they're pushing for offensive lead in the game or an offensive zone draw where they're like, we're going to get on a ship together, right? So it's heavily slanted that way, extreme deployment. they're scoring like nearly six goals per hour. Yeah. With them on the ice at 5-1-5, like they're freakishly good. Their forwards are killers, man.

Well, here's the thing. And I made this point of the start of the year, I believe when I had Harley as one of my most interesting players when you and I did our guys show, his skill set is get the puck up the ice quickly and join the rush, and then in the offensive zone, shoot for sticks. Yeah.

And that's literally all the things their top line does better than anyone else in the world. And I can't think of a better compliment at the defense position than that. So like for them to not just be almost playing them as a four-man unit, like Harley just needs to jump on the ice whenever the top line gets out there. I know it's tougher with defensive deployment and stuff like that to do that. But I just think they have to go out of their way because it's that stark of a difference when he's out there with them compared to everyone else. One thing I will say is I like the speed and pop. The stars have added to the bottom end of their line.

Dushain gave him real juice. Yeah, Dushane, D'Shain lower down the lineup and in a new environment, he looks awesome at the moment. But I also think, I also think Steele, who's sort of like, you know, poor man's D'S D'S d'Cain in some ways,

has just added like an element of speed. Like, they look so much faster this year than they did last year. And it just, you watch the stars play now and it just kind of looks like, like a layup line, except everyone's doing a 360-degree tomahawk dunk in terms of their forward skill. it's a lot of fun. Well, not only did you...

I like them more now than I did last year. And not only did Deshain add his own juice, but he's also gotten more out of Sagan and Marchman along the way, right? And so I think that's really important. And so I guess the bear case for me is the players they have, or the both cases, the players they have. The bear case is whether they're going to do enough to use all of them properly to get the most out of them. Because I think in an ideal world, I'm very, very high on this team. Realistically, with NHO coaching, though, probably might not get there unless they're forced. too.

Yeah, there's a lot more ceiling there if they, I think, like, I definitely want to see what it looks like if they try Harley with Hayeskin and all game. Now, as much as Harley is way better than I've ever thought. Like, I've kind of been low on him generally, just in terms of his defensive awareness. I've been more impressed of late. But, you know, the Canucks 3-2 goal goes through him, right? So you can understand why. Well, you're playing him for offensive instincts.

You're not playing him to. No, I know. To hold the fort. Well, but you kind of need to do both if you're going to play with Hayeskin. Okay. Let's do the Jets because we got to do the abs at the end. I'm going to save as much time as we can for them. The Jets have been on fly.

Is this just going to be a love affair for their new look first line? On fire lately, 19, 9 and 3 plus 24 goal differential. Are you saying Nikola Eilers should play more? I'm saying, that's exactly what I'm saying. And not only that, like obviously him with Valardi recently has been phenomenal. Yeah. But 160 minutes with Shifley and Eilers, because they played with Connor before he went down as well. Yeah.

60% shot share. 60% expected goal share. And the point I was making in a recent show was even at their best in the past, the Jets didn't have a line that was just this dominant at 5-on-5, right? They were always an efficiency quality turning their opportunities into goals team. And all of a sudden now, the value of having like a bona fide ice-tilting, soul-crushing top line like this, whether it is Connor or Valardi with those two guys is highly enticing for me. You add that with the depth up front of Nieder Rider, Appleton, Lowry, Perfetti, Ayafalo, Kapari when he's back. This is a good team.

The blue line, all the defensive metrics are in the top 10, very mobile group. Connor Hallibuck, after a slow start, has been phenomenal for the past, like, six weeks. I like this team a lot. I think a very interesting limit test for me will be, if we can trust Rick Bonas and the Jets, when Kyle Conner comes back, how they act. because if it results in Nick Eler's playing third line minutes again, I'm going to lose my mind. Yeah, it's a travesty.

I mean, this guy's the most underutilized star player of my lifetime. Honestly, honestly, we're getting to a point where I'm going to look at Nick Eler's 20s the way I do the Sidene Twins, where it was just like, you know, Mark Crawford just didn't play them enough early enough in their career despite the fact that their results were through the roof. I mean, we're seeing it right now. Like, if you feature Nick Elers, you are a better team. Yeah.

He's one of the 20 best hockey playing human beings on the planet. Let him be that. My only concern for this team is ironically the power play. They're 24th in goals, dead last and unexpected goals. Now, with the finishing talent, I think they're going to outperform whatever their expected goals are on the power play, especially when Connor comes back. I'm going to pitch you on something now because this player would come up when we talk about the abs next. I think Elias Linholm is the perfect player for this Winnipeg Jets team.

I don't know if they're in a position under Kevin Shevoldeoff. I guess that one year where they were in it, right? They made the big splash trade for Paul Stasney and they went for it and they went for Kevin Hayes as well. And the next year, yeah. But beefing up down the middle so that guys like Nemesnikov and Lowry can kind of play more secondary roles as opposed to having to be like a top six center,

insulating Connor potentially, right? Like the defensive conscience to help him. in the top six and then the power play utility, whether you want to play them in the bumper and move shyfully around or however you want to, you sort it out. I think a guy like Linholm, I know he's going to be super expensive both in terms of acquisition cost and also his next contract and whether he'd even want to sign long term in Winnipeg. I get all the concerns and questions and reasons why it couldn't happen. I just think from like a player perspective and a fit though, I keep coming back to that as like a two-way center like that for this team that could just slot into that top six

is exactly what they need right now. And so I would be very interested in that. But yeah, like there's very few, honestly, very few flaws right now with the way they're playing. It's been really fun. I'm here for it. And, you know, even if you go since December 1, right, Nik Eler's is fifth on the team in PowerPlay ice time per game. Like, you know, I don't want to make Nick Eilers into like the cowbell of the blue oyster cult. But I don't want to be Christopher walking here.

but the answer is clear. Okay. We need more Eilers. We got to do the abs before we get out of here, right? Let's do it. Aethn point percentage plus 18 goal differential. When they win, they're blowing teams out generally, when they lose, all sorts of chaos is ensuing. You can still get Nathan McKinnon 5 to 1 for the heart.

You still can. And he leads the league in 515 scoring right now. Only four points behind Kutrov after this 17 game point streak he's on. One quick thing here. And when he's eating. Like, he's destroying. This run is incredible. But here's the thing.

Okay. Well, actually, this is the point I was going to make. with him and Ranton in on the ice at 5-15 this season, the ads are scoring 4.1 goals per hour, which is elite. When those guys aren't out there, which is twice as often as when they are at 5-15, the team is barely scraping by at like 2.1 goals per hour.

Yeah. And that's even with that Colton, O'Connor... Well, they've been good from like a suppression and like territorial perspective, but they haven't been scoring necessarily. No, but they're playing well. Yes. You know, I mean, they're in the conversation for best third line in hockey. Well, they've been, yeah.

Even though they've been used more heavily. No, they have. So since December 1st, though, 11 games they have played. Here's the ice time of the top players. Val Nchuschikin, 2,000. Yeah. Miko-Ranton, 2405, Nathan McKinnon, 23-43. Like, Valentchuskin is averaging 25 minutes a game on this team right now.

This is prime Ilya Kovochuk. talking about and I know that like lecinen is out right so like there's and they're just loading up that top line and using them whenever they possibly can and I get it I just think in terms of like sustainability and outlook for the playoffs unless there's reinforcements coming along the way it's it's a lot more of what we talked about last year and I think that's concerning because you're talking about McKinnon eating and he's been otherworldly yeah they're like nine six and two or something during this point streak he's on like it like it's not good enough yeah You're right.

Considering how well he's playing and how many miles they're putting on the top guys, I think that's concerning to me. They might be missing most of a second line. Yeah. That's a problem. Well, and after they traded to Tatar, right, there was a lot of rumblings around the league of like... Yeah. Side eyeing the ass.

Like, you know, when you do something and then your dog gives you, like, the whale eyes where, like, you see the whites of his eyes. He's kind of skeptical, like, what you're up to right now, like, kind of wary. Yeah. That's what a lot of teams around the league right now are doing. and they're very, they're wondering. They're curious. Yeah.

I mean, they're going to need to air drop a second line into the, or two thirds of a second line at least into this lineup, and that's not going to be easy. I mean, I just think when you look at what Vegas has. Yeah. There's going to be too many minutes they're losing. Yeah, and look at L.A. too. I mean, you bump into one of the best teams in the Pacific.

You know, I think you're going to need more secondary push than the Aves can currently rely on. That's the bear case. then the bull case would be this organization tends to do pretty well finding these guys. And I don't want to get into a scenario where I'm having to play against Nathan McKinnon for 25 minutes. Yeah. Because they will probably be very scary. Also, like, you know, they were pretty unfortunate, I think, against the crack in the top end of the Aves lineup.

Yeah. I still buy this team. I don't know. I mean, with like the rantin and stuff, right going after Likinen's dad in the postgame and then DeMont Dave's like giving about his as like cutting. a critique of his own teammates as you're ever going to get in the NHL. Yeah. It's giving me the vibes of like, you know, like, I feel like you see this more in the NBA

than in the NHL where it's like a recent champion that's sort of sleepwalking through the regular season. Yeah. And then you're seeing the guys like, start to get annoyed by it. Like try to internally motivate themselves through drama and through like yelling at each other to like get going and get the best out of each other. Now, you would think that last year's performance against Seattle, I know that, you know, they were pretty banged up, right?

And the Chuskin didn't play and all that. There's excuses for it, but you'd think that that would have been that wake-up call. This isn't a team that won the Cup last year, right? So I think there's very compelling bear and bowl cases for this team. I think you can very easily see a scenario where it's much like last year and it's a disappointing round one, or they make some sort of an upgrade and all of a sudden Nathan McKinnon is just the best player in the world. And I think both are very in play. Yeah.

Yeah, and more than anything, I just really like Nathan McKinnon's long shot odds for the Heart Trophy. I think this run that he's on, if it continues for like three more weeks, I think it really becomes a talking point. And I think it deserves to be. Me too. Okay, Tom, we've got to get out of here. When we come back in a couple weeks, we'll do the Eastern Conference. Let's go. Let's go.

I'll let you plug some stuff on the way out. Yeah, Canucks Talk returns January 2nd. I'm off from the athletic for a bit. But, you know, there will be some content that I pre-wrote that it'll be dropping. and really excited to cover what promises to be like an absolutely epic race for the Pacific Division crown. High stakes too because you get to avoid the other teams in the Pacific. Or in a round one match up against the Oilers.

Or bump into Edmonton. Yeah. But anyway, it's going to be a lot of fun. So stay tuned throughout 2024. I can't wait for it. Happy holidays to you and all your families. Well, looking for that. Happy holidays to you.

I will be back on January 8th, I think. I'm taking an extra week off because I'm very, very tired. So looking forward to that to not only recharging my batteries, but hopefully being reintroduced to my family because I've just been here in the studio recording shows. But knowing me, after a couple days, I will be putting on like Kiro Murchenko clips and grinding tape. So I don't know how long I'll be away, but I'll try my best to recharge a little bit. I hope everyone has a great holidays, gets to spend some quality time with their loved ones. I will see you soon. Until then, thank you for listening to us on the HockeyPedio cast streaming.

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