The Hockey PDOcast - The Canucks Hot Start, and Way Too Early Awards Market

Episode Date: November 7, 2023

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to talk about the hot start the Canucks are off to this season, and how they’re doing it. Then they look at the awards market one month into the season and discuss some of the best values on the boards.The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitra Filippovich and joining me is my good buddy Thomas Jans. Tom, what's going on, man? Hey, bud. How are you? Thanks for having me. I'm very excited to have you in studio on this rainy Monday afternoon as we bounce around the league and talk about various things. But I think we should start with the Canucks, right? It seems like they are the talk of the league right now and understandably so after the start they're off to. I've referenced them a bunch on this show throughout the season so far as these games have gone along. But now that I have you here in studio,

we can chat about them a little bit and kind of the start they're off to and what we expect moving forward. Because obviously I think they've exceeded certainly everyone's expectations, but ours especially. And there's a bunch of numbers you can reference, but I will say I just think watching these games that we can throw away the San Jose one because that's not really a proxy to anything resembling NHL hockey.

Although I'll be honest with you, I have an endless appetite for watching the San Jose Sharks get done. dunked on. Yeah, maybe we shouldn't have had them 30 second on our watchability range. I think we underrated how like the the all-star game element of it. There's a spectacle to it at this point that I actually find I can't turn away from.

Do you think we're going to get to a point where you start to feel bad for them? Probably not because they're all pro athletes. I mean, I feel bad for them already. I just think the like, let me put it to you this way. We're recording on Monday. Yes. The Canucks play the Edmonton Oilers and the Edmonton Oilers are reeling.

If the Canucks defeat the Oilers and their next game at 2-8-1 is against San Jose, you're telling me the eyes of the entire hockey world aren't going to be laser-focused on the Shark Tank? They are. It's going to be must-watch. It will. But that's also... For five minutes. As bad as things have gone for Edmonton, that's also...

They're not down that bad. It's the ultimate get-right spot. That's like the one where it's like, oh, McDavid and Drysaddle aren't off to the pace that we're expecting from them. And then after that one, it's like, oh, whoa, they're right back on track. Don't worry about it. Yeah. I was going to see it. I was going to say I think, you know, natural statric has like adjusting for various things

and adjusting for venue and score and all that. Like we, I think we actually, as we get into the season, we're going to need a San Jose adjusted metric. Because if you're playing them and you're just putting up a 10 spot, it's that's going to, and it's a good pivot here for us to talk about the economics. It's going to blow everything out of proportion, right? They have a couple of those games so far, but it's like, yeah, when you score 10 times on 32 shots, that's going to make everything

look totally just out of whack. And that's not necessarily like we shouldn't we shouldn't view what happens in one of these games as equally as what's happened in all of the other games they've played so far. So well, and this is going to be something to keep in mind, especially because we're going to be discussing awards watch.

We're going to be discussing awards futures. Our friend at ESPN.com, Greg Woshenki, published his awards watch today in the Vancouver. It was basically a Canucks article. Yeah. Also mentioned Mitch Marner. Right. It was wildly Canucks-centric. Yep.

And should the Canucks continue to win, even if they don't win at this rate, right? Like, even if they are, you know, something like 15, 7 and 2 going into December or whatever, whatever, they're going to be at the forefront of a lot of these conversations. And I do think one of the reasons why, in addition to the fact that, you know, Hughes and Pedersen are out of their minds right now. And Thatcher Demko might be at an even higher level than that is the Canucks play San Jose, two more times this month. Yeah. Like by the time that's done, you know,

I mean, there's a real possibility that Quinn Hughes has like 12 points on December 1st that came against San Jose. Yeah. That's well within reach considering that he's already at five. What was it last week on your show, Knoch's talk here on the Sports and Radio Network as well? We did a draft. We do drafts every Friday afternoon and we did a draft of what the first win for the Sharks is going to be.

And I had someone actually tweet him in there like, I think we're really, reaching the point where, and funny you mentioned that, Euler's upcoming game, if it gets to that point, it's like, we're getting to a point where teams are almost going to have its circle on the calendar as like, this is the game of the year because we cannot have this, like,

on our resume as being the team that loses to these guys. And I don't know, I remember it on for a mailbag last week and we got a question about how many games these shark teams are going to win. And I think we were both like, I don't know, probably like 10 to 12 just because that's how hockey works, right? McKenzie Blackwood

I'll have a 50 save game and they'll win two one or something. But then you watch the two most reasoned ones, the Canucks and the Penguins games, it's like, I don't, I just, that might not happen. Like, there's, there's nothing resembling NHL hockey in these games. There's no checking. There's no, there's no, there's no, like, if you watch that on the Canucks game, the breakouts, it's like, they're literally running practice drills.

Like, I'm pretty sure Rick Talk, its practices are higher intensity than whatever resistance the sharks were able to pose that night. I've watched a lot of Canucks practices. this year. You can tell you. You're right. Yeah. Yeah. That's on point. Okay, so this Canucks team, 8-2 and 1 record at the time recording, 29 to 11 goal differential at 5-1-5, 48 to 22 goal differential overall. Now that's obviously buoyed a little bit by the 8-1 versus Edmonton to open the season. And then 10-1 against the sharks,

yeah, sure, certainly. They're first in the league in shooting percentage, 15.3%. Yeah. Second is LA, a team I really like, and I've spoken highly of, but they're at 13%. So to put that gap into perspective, how big of a chasmid is, the distance between first and second, Canucks and Kings, is the same as second Kings and 13th jets in team shooting percentage. There's second and team state percentage behind just the Bruins at 934. And so...

Can I throw some pepper on that? Absolutely. I just want to spice this up a little bit. Yes. I was looking at natural statric, and I know that ClearSight, for example, has Demcoa, similarly elevated and outrageous perch. But according to the...

data natural stat trick all situations thatcher demco has faced 73 high danger scoring chances and has made 70 stops that's a 960 against just the high danger stuff uh you know and if you don't believe that ask why at johnston i'll do you one better sport logic has him at a 951 say percentage on just inner slot shots which are obviously that and i think like most of his peers are in like the 700s just for perspective um i'm high on demco but if you told me that the kinnukkah we're getting 11 games from Prime Dominic Hashik to open the season, I would definitely have been higher on them going into this year, and that's the sort of performance Demko has given them to this point.

I guess the issue you kind of bummed them to is it's such like a perspective or relative thing, I guess, right? Because on the one hand, when you have an 11 game sample like this, that's obviously inflated by percentages, everything just looks, like you're doing everything through rosed into glasses, right? Because it's like everything looks better. Everyone's performing better. everyone's underlying numbers in terms of goals at least are much better.

It's like, but and so it kind of tricks your brain and being like, well, they're playing so well as a result of all these goals that why would we expect them to all the center aggress? And we know the percentages don't necessarily work that way. Well, and then you get into the point where, you know, this team is improved, right? I mean, their five-on-five profile is better this year. Especially compared to expectations as well, right? For sure.

Yeah. But they improved almost immediately under Tocket, right? the Tocket Bump last season was not something I was fading like the Boudreau one. Like it was more like, you know, for example, what we saw out of the Calgary Flames when Daryl Sutter took over, they still didn't make the playoffs, but the next year. Yeah, they laid the foundation for what was going to come back. So, I mean, there was heft to that beyond what we've seen in previous years. That's continued.

Like their five-on-five form is still good. I think their penalty kill is legitimately, you know, average or if it's below average, it's not by a massive amount, and that's an area where they bled goals. Like, that's been a fatal flaw of this team. The power plays at least as good and might be better, frankly, with the new movement system

that Tocke himself is installed. We know that Thatcher Demko's good. Like, we don't think he's 95% of inner slot shots good sustainably, but we think he's an exceptional goaltender. So you sort of put that together and you run into this issue that's difficult to explain to fans, where it's like, the bounces aren't going to last,

but that doesn't mean that this team's going to begin to play poorly. Right. It just means that right now, if you buy the results, you're like, well, that's the best team in the NHL by a good margin. And really, it's like, based on their underlying profile anyway, it's more like a solid playoff team. Yeah. And that's still, you know, a huge win.

And also probably on the sort of right or most side of the bell curve, at least as I saw it, going into this camp. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's a way to summarize is they could keep playing the exact same way they've played so far and lose three of the next five games. And that wouldn't necessarily mean that they started playing more poorly. Right. Well, I have to avoid, like, the thing that I can see happening is this club's going to hit a rut that doesn't necessarily, is not necessarily indicative of their form. Right.

And you're going to hear the like, we have to start playing. We have to get back to our game. You know what I mean? Or one thing that crops up when a team starts hot is like the identity conversation, which is, by the way, one of my least favorite conversations in hockey across the board. Right. But, you know, it's easy to have the identity conversation when your identity is everything goes your way. You know, to this point, that's been part of what we've seen with the Canucks.

But I do believe that there's real substance behind this. Yes. I don't think this is one of those total mirage, you know, Mike Ye. Mike Yo, Minnesota Wild, Randy Carlisle, Toronto Maple Leafs-style teams. Yes. And with the lead they've spotted themselves, right? They've spotted themselves such a big lead in the Pacific at this point already. You know, they're going to be a mid-90s point team, even if they're like 90, 92 point percentage the rest of the way.

They're likely to be a playoff team, and I think you're already able to say that about them. Yeah, banking points, especially to this degree earlier in the season, is probably something we don't put enough emphasis on just because we know as the year goes, along with so many three-point games, it's really tough to make up gaps. And also it's really tough to, like, because even if you, even if the percentages regress or whatever, and you start playing, even, let's say you start playing more poorly, you're still going to win games. Like, it's not like all of a sudden, you're just going to like, oh, we're going to lose the same amount we just won.

That's not how hockey really works. No. When you say the identity thing, I think I know what you mean, but I just wanted to clarify because I'm with you, like, I think it gets like misused and misappropriated. I do like when I have a feel for what a team. does well though. Like if a team's going to be good, I think they need to have one quality

that's like not necessarily theirs, other teams might do it as well or better, but like separates them especially when they play worse teams. It's like, what are you going to do that's going to differentiate you from the 25th best team in the league? And I think we can already see that

at least with this team. So in a sense, like they have that going for them and I do think that's a real thing. I'm sure it gets overblown for sure. I would just say like the identity of this team dating back four or five years, like dating back across multiple coaches, right? Part of it anyway, in my mind,

is with the man advantage, they're lethal. Yep. And they have this edge in net. So you have to be on your game because they are going to be slightly more efficient than you at both ends. Now, does that lend itself to, in part to the PDO burst that they're on?

I mean, you can debate that. But, like, I think that's been an identity for this team going back a while. Like this is a skilled team with a lot of one-shot finishers. We saw that in the bubble. We saw that under Travis Green. We saw that under Bruce Boudreau. And I think we're still seeing it.

Like I think this team's identity has been consistent and remains what it is. I just think that they've added some like solidity underneath that. But I don't think that's solidity, that control of games is their identity insofar as the other attributes about them stand out more to me. It is. I want to circle back in a second. You made a note there about the hot start. And I think it does kind of cut both ways maybe, though. Like I think just looking at purely their underlying metrics and being like they're this percent expect the goals, even if you adjust for score probably isn't painting an accurate picture.

When you've led for, I think they've led for 52% of their game time so far. And a lot of it has been by significant margins to not just like a one, hold it on to a one goal lead. I think we know part of score effects isn't just getting out shot. It's like your own state percentage is going to. going to go up right because the other team is just kind of throwing pucks totally as much as they can on net and your own shooting percentage is going to go up because you're counter and so it's like it kind of it's like it's like it's like the self-fulfilling prophecy you're kind of positive feedback loop where it's like if your percentages are high to begin with that means you're leading by a lot but then that's going to

keep inflating those two things because they tie into exactly how you get to those totals so obviously listen but but that's also where i do think you get into this right where it's like think about that dallas win which was so impressive from them, right? But there's that Demco save on Wyatt Johnston, right? That's a, even for a goaltender at the absolute top of his game, that's a what, 5 and 100, 5% safe? Like most of the time that's going to the net.

Well, then it's a 1-0-0 game. Then the Canucks are trailing. You know what I mean? Yeah, the pendulum totally shifts. And it totally warps everything. You have another outrageous Demco robbery at the end of the second, and so all of a sudden the second or the third period is the Canucks defending a two-goal lead when in a world where there's normalized bounces.

and again, this is an instructive way of thinking about this, I think. It's not like the Canucks are up to nothing. It's like they're tied, which isn't to say that they're playing poorly against a pretty good Stars team. It's just context for how over a small sample of games, a random distribution of positive events can sort of warp our perception of a team and how a lot of what we're doing by looking at regression by focusing on an underlying profile is to try and correct for that in advance

so that we have an advanced understanding. And what I mean by advanced is not like more detailed, but like before it's obvious generally speaking in the results of what a team's actual profile is, the truth, as it were, about a team. But at the end of the day, it's also hockey and you can only do so well. Yeah, I think if we get to the end of the season, here's a question for you. If we get to the end of the season,

what would you think is more likely? They finish top, let's say five. Maybe you can go in top three. In the West? No, in shooting percentage or say percentage is the team. Yeah, I mean, I think it's about equally likely on both. I don't think there's, you know, I think they do have a genuine play, sorry, I do think they have a genuine shooting percentage driver in Olias Pedersen.

Yes. Olias Pedersen, over large samples has tended to be Kutrov, Stamco's tier, in terms of driving finishing efficiency, and he logs a lot of ice time. Yeah. You know, so I think, I think ultimately that's more likely to be sticky. then, for example, and I buy that Demco is this good, but it's not just that they're getting 950-ish goaltending out of Demco, they're also getting 930 goaltending out of DeSmith.

You know, I think goaltending is sort of the area that I would be that I would be less confident about them being elite relative to league average. Well, the reason why I asked you that I was thinking about that, and I kind of came to the same conclusion as you, and I was like, I think the high-end talent on this team, particularly when you're like, I don't really think they scored a power play goal against the stars, but a couple of those sequences where they were just like, they had them clinging on for dear life and they're flying the puck around.

All of a sudden, they worked out low triangle. It comes to Besser in the slot. He gets a one-timer. They get the rebound. Quinn Hughes gets a shot from the middle of ice. Like, you can see how lethal it is, right? So it's like, all right, I think the shooting percentage is more sticky. But I think we just generally embrace the fact that goaltending, like anyone could finish.

realistically in the top five so that might actually make them more likely just because it's like who knows look at the canucks i mean they were literally first in the nchl and five-on-five save percentage in 2022 or sorry 2023 uh 2021-22 and then they were dead last for most of the year and then got like demko got hot at the end of the year under talk it and they finished like ahead of a few teams but they were well beneath 890 save percentage on the year last season of the year after being the number one team in terms of goal tending I mean, it's like making a trick shot in basketball. Like you can do it once, but can you do it five times in a row.

And if you can, you're Steph Curry. And only the New York Rangers and ploycious Sturkin. Yeah. Yeah, I just think like the shooting percentage, so the league leaders in shooting percentage of the last five seasons were 11.8, Edmonton last year, 12.4, 11.4, 11.2, 12.2, 12. Like, if you're going to be the absolute best and you're going to be the most elite of driving it, you're still going to come in at 12%, which is really high. Yeah.

if the Canucks were shooting 12% as a team right now, that's like 11 fewer goals scored, I think, which would still be like a top 10 team and we'd still view them as a massive positive surprise, but I think that would also temper things a little bit, and that's probably, I think, where we both come to, right? Yeah. And it's at both ends, right?

And that's also, you know, like, if this was a thing that we saw during the Boudreau bump for the Canucks, which, you know, I had a fade position on for a long time, was it's not like they had this outrageous, say, percentage. It's not like they had this outrageous shooting percentage. It was just that they were a little bit lucky everywhere. And right now the Canucks are a lot fortunate everywhere. And that creates this perception of them.

And then I think the discussion around them, because it's going to be focused on so much by national hockey analysts, especially those who employ data frequently, sort of becomes like a rallying cry for the fact. fans. And I think it's important to note that, you know, it's not like the analytics, quote-unquote analytics are saying to be low on this team. Like this team's underlying profile, I think, is pretty strong, especially when you look at, you know, the largest sample data available to you, like shot attempts and all of that. I think there's a lot to like analytically from this Kinnuxa start.

Let me reinforce that. So this ties in the identity conversation that you brought up and why I thought it was interesting. Spor Logic has them as a team 11th in rebound chances. Right. And first in four check chances created this year. Wow. And that's a sea change. And if you're going to stick to, like if you're going to take the bull side of the Canucks argument, right, part of it's just going to hinge on they have superstars at each of the

most important positions, right? Number one center, number one D starting goalie. And it's going to be, all right, this team's playing really hard. And I don't know how sustainable that is in terms of like, and Talk is not necessarily a new coach bump because he was here at the end of last year but it's clear that like their play like there's an effort level

in place that might not have been there previously or whatever you want to attribute that to part of it is surely player base but I think the coaching staff deserves credit for that as well there's a selflessness to it like this is not a team whose best players cheat for offense and in previous seasons I think you could fairly say that

you know as as tough as that is to hear I'm sure I think that's the case. Talk it increasingly is just like beginning to feel like the right guy at the right time for the right team, right? There's no question about that. And the other thing that I was going to note was in watching the games,

and you watch it in the Stars game, right? It's a two-nothing final score. But the reason why I brought up the sharks earlier in terms of like just how much space there is everywhere and guys are essentially just like passing to whoever they want from the Canucks side and skating into open ice, I think a mark of a good team when you watch them is like the level of support

that's always available, whether it's offensively or defensively, right? It's like a teammate kind of close by it to provide an option to pass it to. I think previously, whenever the Canucks would have success, it would be like some superhuman individual effort from Quinn Hughes or Elias Pedersen. And they still certainly have flashes of those, no doubt about it. And you could see the barrage of chances against that the goalies were covering up. Yeah. I mean, that's not present this year.

Yes. Like this does not. That's the other thing. When you were watching the Boudreau bump, like to me, it looked like the Randy Carlisle Leafs. Like it looked like this team was being buried under an avalanche of scoring chances and it's like at the key moment it hit the post

and then the Canucks would go back down and score, you know? And it's just like... And there's a certain level of charm to that, I think, especially when it's attributed to Bruce Boudreel and his personality. Oh, it's not not fun. Yeah. You're watching it.

It's not something you want to like gamble on moving forward as... No, also you're watching it with like a sense of that, of that, you know, they can't keep getting away with this. And not that, you know, you're angry about it. just like they can't keep getting away with this, like truly. And this does feel like there's no, none of that feeling to it. It feels like teams have to work so hard to score against this team. And partly that's all of the inner slot chances that Demko's turning away.

But also it's because they have to work really hard to generate scoring chances against this team. Yeah. This team's, you know, I think punching above their weight in terms of what they're giving up and how sort of sound they are structurally. Well, there's no doubt, I mentioned all the stats, Demko, that he's feeling it, but you just watch it and it's like part of it was I think goalies really care about shutouts like probably more than we do.

You know, it's like I can't tell you who even led the league last year in shutouts. It was probably like five or six of them. It's not that many by any means. Remember Jim Carrey net detective? Yeah. Yeah, I sure do. But Demko's got two already, right?

He gives up the one late goal against San Jose. I think part of it's also like it's seeing a 10-0 thing. It's like so clean. Totally. But he gives up that goal and like you could just be visibly distraught. It's like almost unreasonably. reasonably so considering you're still up nine and there's like five minutes left in the game but also part of it was like well i think he was interfered with yeah what was what was funny about it was that was uh you know

i never want to say 100% when you're challenging for goalie interference right because it's they're all 50 50 no they're not they're not all 50 they are all 50 that one was like a 75 25 25 canucks could have taken that off the board and they had this great shot credit to the sports net pacific broadcast of the canucks bench and you could see talk it kind of like telling demko like i'm sorry man like i'm not challenging a goal against a 10-1 game. We're going to let them have this. But, yeah, I mean, that was a charming moment. Any other wrinkles on the Canucks before we go to break?

And then we'll talk more kind of league-wide and awards winning. I guess the thing I noticed, and it's not necessarily unique to just that one game, but how it worked in the Stars game was they essentially decided to use the Miller line with Hughes and Heronic versus hints, right? They've done that. And then they had Pedersen on the Johnston line. Yeah. And when all those guys are playing at this level,

it gives you this unique leg up because if Pedersen or Hughes are out there at this point with the way they're playing, I feel confident that regardless of who else is on the ice, the Canucks will come out as a net positive by any metrics you want to look at. And so all of a sudden, if you're doing that, generally most teams don't have more than two threats

you're really worried about. And so that increases your baseline so much because all your death players need to do is just not be a disaster, and you'll probably be pretty fine. That's been pretty systematic from the Canucks. Hughes has logged through 11 games, 81 minutes 5-on-5 with J.T. Miller and only 50 with Elias Pedersen.

I mean, that's a pretty dramatic split. You don't get there. They're almost using them as a pairing as opposed to, like, obviously he's playing with Thronick, but... Yeah, and it's curious to me because I wonder, are you insulating Miller in Tufts with Hughes-Heronic, or are you insulating Myers-Susie with Petterson? in secondary minutes against Pedersen. Well, because of Myers and Cucer out there,

with Patterson, he's the best, Patterson is the best defenseman on the ice. Right. Well, I mean, I think Pedersen's the best defenseman on the ice with a lot of, you know, Pedersen's the best defenseman on the ice with most Canucks defensemen who aren't Quinn Hughes. And look, this is the other thing that I think needs to get enough play,

so I want to say it here on a nationally focused podcast. Quinn Hughes through 11. games, right? I'm not saying he's the best defenseman in the world. I think everyone, you have to give that nod to Makari's won the cup, he won the Calder. Um, you know, he's a true freak. But through the first three and a half weeks of the season, like Quinn Hughes has played like the best defenseman on the planet. This isn't like top three, top five. This isn't, you know, two B, three B, like, number one reason why the Canucks are off to the start. It's probably Thatcher Demko's stopping everything in sight. But like one B, not in terms of play.

Their tears. Yes. I mean, Quinn Hughes. I was going to ask, is he first year or third year? Quinn Hughes has gone up. Yes.

There's no way to be a more impactful skater than what Quinn Hughes has been through 11 games. It's the best 11 games of his career. I've watched this guy play just a wild amount of hockey. And this is materially different. Yeah. In a way that it's hard not to get carried away with. He's crushing it.

So far the conducts are up 26 to 4 in his all situations. And part of that is power play, obviously, and part of the percentages we've made. but it's just it's comical like how often he's gotten to do that skate towards the bench and tap as everyone compared to like being dejected um eighth in the league in average offensive possession time with a puck on a stick he's got the 16 points obviously i think i did a big show recently with harm on it so i don't want to get too in the weeds here but i think a point that i didn't really make there we talked about how he spent so much time this off season working on his shot trying

to figure out the logistics of like how he can become more of a threat there and not only is a cool seeing that pay dividends, but like his volume of attempts and shots on goal has like either doubled or tripled so far, but also compared to his historical norms, but also the number of rebounds he's creating, which has been such a big part

of the team's offense and part of that is the tips and everything in front of the net. But like you're seeing everything funneled through him now and it's just, it's a masterclass in terms of like dictating the pace and control of a game. Two things too is as it becomes more and more apparent that he's a shooting threat, he's going,

there's going to be another layer for him to unlock where there's like the shot fake, right? Where there's a gravity to him as a shooter that gives him more time to make even more efficient plays as a passer. And that's like where this gets exciting. Right now he's sort of establishing himself as a shooting threat, but I think there's another layer

that he's going to unlock as teams have to react to him as a shooter going forward here. And I think he's smart enough that he's aware of it, which makes it so cool. And then here's the last one. You know, Quinn Hughes early in his career was always paired up with, like, conventional shutdown offensemen, right? Shen, Jordie Ben, Tucker Pullman,

Noah Julesen is recently his last season, Chris Tanna. And over the last year, the Canucks have put him with, like, Ethan Bear, and then Philip Peronic. And if you go look through, like, his large sample with or without, it's, like, there's a totally different layer when you give him a puck mover to play with, you know, allah taves with McCar. and I think this is I sort of brought this up to him

Today I was like earlier in your career It seemed like everyone thought you needed to play with You know a defensive player And his reply to me was well I am a defensive player And then he went on to explain how he feels like with Heronic They have the puck so much That he gets four or five additional opportunities Whether as a shooter or a passer than he would

Otherwise and I just thought that was an incredibly insightful Way of viewing it It's maybe outside sort of the bounds of like conventional hockey wisdom but turns out that when you get one of these elite puck moving defensemen an additional puck mover it feeds them more and I think this is now a lesson from Colorado and now with Hughes

and I think one that I think a lot of teams would do well to heed. Yeah, no, certainly. And listen, when they made the trade, the reason why I was skeptical of it wasn't not, I mean, clearly the way Hughes and Heronic have played so far this year has been just unbelievable and I wouldn't have even expected them to be this good. But I don't think anyone should have doubted that they would work together because like Cronick was a good player and Hughes is amazing.

And so it's like, yeah, I'm sure that'll be a step up for him. The question was, and I think it's still kind of unanswered, was like, does it make sense in the grand scheme of things when you probably, if you're investing this much in another defenseman, you want him to carry his own pair so that not everything. So like when Hughes isn't out there, it's a tire fire. Yeah. And they've been able to piece it together and also they like cobble together minutes

situationally by Sprinckley and Cole and Myers and all that. But it's still something that I think remains in the long view as like TBD, but for now just seeing the way they're playing together, it's like it's been a smash in that regard. Yeah, it's been a smash. I mean, I also think the team's results are such a crucial part of that context. My criticism of the deal was just based on, you know, if you're aspiring to win big, right?

Does it deal for a guy who's got arbitration rights after this season? and will thus be more expensive, help you get there sustainably, right? Like it was never a deal that I thought wouldn't make them better this season. Right. Nor was it a deal that I thought was for a player who wasn't going to be helpful.

It's more about the long term of how does this team graft enough skill, cost-controlled long-term, and does it help you to add a guy who's one year away from being super paid versus adding, you know, two shots at like a lengthy sort of runway with cost control guys in a first and a second for a team in this circumstance.

If they're 8-2 and 1, if they sustain this win rate over the rest of the season, I'm going to be way wrong. But I do think it requires this team to make hay of this start. Like they need to be a 105-point team and they need to be a real playoff threat, I think, to pay off the underlying logic of this deal. Good start for them. All right, Tom, let's take a break here. and then when we come back, we'll move off the Canucks,

we'll talk about a variety of other topics you are listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. Breaking down the top stories in the NHL every day. The Jeff Merrick Show. Subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. We're back here on the Hockey-Dio cast.

We're joined by Thomas Trans Tom. We did 30 minutes or so on the Canucks on the top of the show. We're going to move off them now and talk about a variety of other topics. Do you want to just watch? we're kind of along these lines, switch gears and talk about the Pacific a little bit, or do you want to just get into our awards talk? Because I don't know how much mileage we can get out of the awards talk, because I just feel so silly.

It's a month and teams have played like 11 games. I know, but it's fun. All right. Okay, let's just do it. Let's do it. Yeah. Let's do that and then let's get to the Pacific because I do think there's some interesting things in the Pacific and some interesting value in the sports books right now, too.

Okay. And so for the sake of transparency, what awards do you? vote on. So I'm a PHWA member, and every year I've been a PHWA member, I've been selected among the panel to actually vote on awards. I do like to wager, but I've never wagered on hockey once. Okay, you don't need to give that a disclaimer. I think people know.

Although they do know about your nasty college basketball habits. First day of college basketball today, by the way. No wonder you're in such a chipper move. I thought it was the A-2-1 Canucks, but no, it's... Oregon, Georgia over. Let's go. Yes. No, the... So anyway.

I vote as a PHWA panelist on a regular basis, although my selection in year after year is not assured. For the Calder, the Selke, the heart, the Norris. Oh, all the good ones. The Lady Bing. Oh. And then first and second team all rookie, and first second and third team, all team.

Those are PHWA awards votes. The Vezna's voted on by GMs. the Jack Adams is voted on by broadcasters. Oh. And that's your awards rundown. I mean, the Jack Adams and the Vesna are kind of the same award, right? Whoever wins the Vesna, their coach will probably have a good chance for the Jack Adams. Yeah, that's true.

I'm still on team, you know, Tyler Dello once pointed out that the GMs should all vote for the ELC goaltender in their own division on the hoax that they hit a bonus. and sort of their own cap situation. I love that. I still think that's one of the great takes of the last 10 years. Okay. So let's get into them then. I would appreciate about you and not that this is exclusive to you.

I'm sure a lot of other voters do this, but I know just because we have a lot of these conversations, the diligence you do in terms of the canvassing and outsourcing and like just being like, this is what I think. Am I totally off base? Where are you, how are you looking at this? And so I like that because. It's a lot of fun.

Like the, I will say the voting process, I actually find it stressful, but it is fun to, you know, call up 10 people who will answer your phone call in this industry. Well, because you don't want to be the one person who doesn't have McDavid first on their heart list, right? Like, it's... 100%. But, you know, I always do end up with something silly or something that no one else has that I stand behind. But, like, Chris Hanav, I had on my Norris ballot once, I think he deserved it. My favorite sort of vote that was an only one was I had Nick Paul for Selke, like four years ago. And I feel like that take has aged well.

He's good. He is good. Okay. Where do you want to start? Do you want to start with, like, we can just breeze through them and kind of will see some might be more interesting than others. Sure. Let's start with Vezna. All right.

Because I think Demko at 12 to 1 is a screaming value for a guy who should be the front runner at this point. Even if you believe that he's likely to regress, and even if he's never had a full, healthy starter season in which he sustained elite performance, like 12 to 1 for a guy who's out of the gates this quickly at the first turn feels like wild value. Plus he's going to have the Jack Adams correlation, like talk, it's probably an early contender to win coach of the year.

And he's got the narrative heft of potential. carried team to the playoffs that we didn't expect to be there. Yes, but also I'm going to push back because I think with the amount of deserved attention that Lewis Pedersen is getting and Quinn Hughes, obviously if you're going to be first or second in the league and team's say percentage and have numbers that's astronomical, you are carrying the team to an extent, but also I don't think people generally view even through these first 11 games as like, wow, Demco has really been carrying the Canucks.

I think it probably goes Peders and Hughes in some order and then him. And maybe even in some eyes it would be like Talket ahead of that, right? Because of all the culture intensity stuff we've talked about. Of the Canucks Awards contenders,

Vegas only has Talkit as a favorite. Yeah. So Talket is the only, is plus 600. Cassidy plus 900, Brindamore plus 1,000 as your sort of finalist group at the moment. But, you know, for Pedersen's third for the Selke, you know, top seven for the

heart, and Quinn Hughes is second to Cal McCar and sort of a class of his own for the Norris. So at the moment anyway, I sort of see Demko as being like the best value of that group. The thing that I love about this category is that you can quite literally burn your money on fire, by voting on anyone. Yeah. Well, no, yes. But you could literally put money now on McKenzie Blackwood and Capo Coccanin. And it's like, why?

I love that. Yeah, I think Demko, obviously, just based on the head start, is interesting. A lot of these other goalies will either not have the team success or are kind of in tandems. Like, I know Allmark won it last year, but regardless of how well he did. did. It's like swayment is just as good, if not better, in some people's eyes. And so it'll be really tricky for him to distinguish himself. I think Audinger, plus 600 is an interesting one. You and I have spoken quite a bit about how they worked him, like just rode him into the ground last year.

And I think they probably want to avoid that. He was so good. But he's so good. And I think based on his usage so far, I think he, either him or Pete DeBoard, I mean, probably both, just really want him to play. because he's obviously a lot better than Wedgwood, but also, like, they just, they take the regular season very seriously, and I think he's going to play a lot, and that might not be the best approach for their Stanley Cup odds, but for the regular season,

if you're going to tell me I'm going to get 60 to 65 Jay Godinger games, they're going to win a lot of them. Their defense is still really good, so they don't give up that much, and if he's going to play at this level, that's a pretty good combination. I think both him and just Drickener, I mean, the Rangers' defense,

defensive performance so far under period La Vila Velaide has been so much better and Shastrican I know he won it two years ago but he kind of he came back down to Earth a little bit last year so I don't think there is concern about like voter fatigue there right so I think Shusirkin is interesting but yeah it's a tricky award

a lot of the usual suspects I guess are on top of it so there's there's some fun value sort of further down like guys like Vile Huso who like at least are going to have team success and their overall save percentage is kind of unsustainably low probably at the moment. Right. You know, you could see Detroit's shooting percentage calms down just as their save percentage

crests. Yes. And sort of get a stretch like that. But yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, I think you're right. Like Vesna voting 11 games in is incredibly difficult. Andre Bezlevsky plus 6,600. I know. That's...

There's a report today. he's going to be back for American Thanksgiving. But have they played too well? Yeah, probably. Have they played too well without him? Yeah. You know, I feel like... I just think, though, if he came back and, like,

and it's asking a lot because he had a very serious, like, physical setback, right, with his surgery. Yeah. And so it's like, I'm, they'll probably ease in it as well. I doubt he's going to come back and there's a big, you're playing on back-to-backs and every single night, no matter what. So he'll probably get to only, like, 30-ish games, 40 games regardless.

Yeah. But I'm just, not only does everyone, obviously love and appreciate what he's done throughout his career, but also just seeing him come back and dominate. I think a lot of these awards are very narrative-driven as well, right? And so that would be an interesting one. Okay, do you want to move on to the Norris? Yep.

Let's do it. It's amazing that this is like, Vegas sort of sees this as like there's two guys and then there's everyone else. Yeah. And I think based on early performance, that's probably fair, right? I think so. Just at least, like, statistically. I think if I was going to go purely on value here,

I do think Mero Haskinen is just listed too low right now because I think not only is he amazing, but he's never gotten really the deserve recognition in this category. And doesn't it feel like one of these years, especially while hopefully it's merit-driven and not us waiting for a decade and then kind of giving it to him when probably doesn't, does there's going to come a year where it's like,

all right, you know what, Miro Hayskinen, let's just appreciate him. And so him at plus 1,400 is interesting to me. But yeah, you're right. I mean, it's Macar Hughes right now. And then the massive gap. Dali and Fox is hurt. You know, Douggy Hamilton's not even playing on the top unit power play on New Jersey.

Like, he's just not going to, even if you were going to say, okay, he's going to go nuclear and he's going to have 100 points. He's not going to have the pro production. I mean, how about Justin Hull plus 2000? Oh, my. What is happening? That is tied with Charlie McAvoy, Victor Headman, and Roman Yossi. That's got to be...

We have to shout that out. Is that a wild? Is that a typo? It's not. We're both looking at it on separate screens. I know. Just like... That is unbelievable.

I mean, relative to Justin Hall of plus 2000, there's a lot of value on the board. I mean, I will say, I don't think, like, Rosmos Dahlina at plus 700, he's third on this list. And I think a lot of that has driven off of last year because Owen Power is plus 5,000. and he's been the superior Sabres defenseman so far. The two dark horses that I like for Norris would be Chickren and Owen Power. Based on the form that they've been in to start the season, I think obviously Chickren would require a pretty significant turnaround in the fortunes of the Ottawa Senators,

but I think so would Owen Power in terms of how the Sabres are performing. But isn't it more likely that Sabres actually do that? I mean, I would say so, but I like both teams with you know, normalized goal-tending and a little bit of wind at their back. So, you know, either way, I think both of them are interesting ones. And I think Owen Power is approaching the point where he might be one of the most underrated players in hockey, given how infrequently he's talked about. Yeah.

And how often he sort of is put into the shadow of a player who I don't think is significantly better than him. Like I don't think there's a big gap in quality between Dallin and Power. Yeah, I think if you're just going down this list, like he's not going to win it, but if you're just trying to get in at a good number, Drew Dowdy should not be... As low as he is?

As low as he is, because he has the same odds right now as John Klingberg. Right. Yeah, and I think it's worth mentioning... This is an award for the best defenseman in the league, I should clarify. Yeah, I think it's worth noting, too, that Shea Theodore plus 6,000.

and seems. Yeah, just not enough usage. Like, they just, like, they spread out the minutes so much, right? But 600 to 1 for a guy who, you know, is, is what? I mean, he's not, he's not. No, that's 60 to 1. 60 to 1, right. 600 to 1, I jump on that.

It's, uh, point is he's not, um, excuse me, he's not, um, there's absolutely a world where he ends up, like, leading NHL defensemen and scoring and gets into the conversation. Sure. Yeah. it's fine. I don't think there's a lot of beyond some of the names we mentioned, I think it probably will wind up being either Macar or Hughes.

Yeah, the value is based on the form of them you think wins. Unless you want to get in a good number and then potentially try to sell it off or something. It's on fire. Okay, what award do you want to do next? We've done Vezna, we've done Norris. Let's save the heart for the end. So we could do, we could do Selke.

I don't think there's like, it's kind of, I don't know, it's kind of the same conversation every year. We could do Calder. Yeah, the one thing that's interesting is don't ignore the impact of an injury on like right now nico heeshire is favored at six to one yes right don't underrate the impact of jack hughes's injury on nico heeshire's selky candidacy because if the devil stay afloat in hugh's absence which i expect them to do because i think they're really good and haven't played that well five on five yet this season yep uh that's going to add real narrative heft like

the year Cory Perry won the heart, Getslaff got hurt down the stretch, the year prior when Henrik Sedeen won the heart, Daniel Sadeen was hurt for a stretch in October and November. So, you know, one thing I'd note on, at the top of the Selke ballot is Hescher and Barkov are the two favorites. And Barkov with the blue line injuries,

he's sure with Jack Hughes now absent for a bit. I think they're going to have real narrative half from a like held the fort, perspective. Yeah. Well, narrative, narrative street. Sean Couturey plus 3,500. Oh, I like it. He's also played really well and been a joy to watch.

Also, Rupa Hince should not be plus 2,200. I know he, like, they generally go for kind of extreme deployment, right? At least they have in the past where they use their fourth line in a very, like, defensive zone faceoffs, matchups, minutes, but hints deserves to be in higher regard than that. I also think, you know, narrative street guys. like there's there's a few interesting ones in terms of Sebastian Aho if the if once the hurricanes get rolling here um and Bo Horvatt stands out to me too just in

that I think the islanders are kind of a wagon like they're pretty good there's absolutely a world where they get to like 4850 wins and people are trying to explain it and he could be one of the one of the reasons uh you know yeah I mean there's like a bunch of wingers There's a bunch of wingers ahead of them that we just have no universe that they're going to get votes. So yeah. If Mark Stolls never won the Jordan Stahl?

So what? Mark Stahl or Jordan Stowe? No, no, Mark Stone. Mark Stone. If Mark Stone's never won the Selke, I don't think a winger has a shot. No, it's not going to happen. Calder, can I interest you in a Riker Evans at plus 10,000? No, that was a joke. I was trying to see you're going to I mean, you know how I feel about Riker Evans.

I think playing NHL games is important for this award. Yeah, I mean, one thing, though, is the Cracking have struggled and they struggled against the rush, so... It's just such a good class. There's so many deserving options. It's actually loaded. And I will say, Pavel Minkicob, I'm doing a big show on him tomorrow with Daryl.

We're going to watch Pavel Minchikov video for 50 minutes. Sick. Go subscribe to the YouTube channel. Hockypidiocast. After that, I think the odds will... We'll see how much sway we have. I think they might jump up a little bit, but... He's so cool. Plus 2,500, like, he should not be...

that low. I know it's tough for a defenseman to win that award, especially one not playing like even more than 20 minutes per game at this point. But, uh, yeah, I mean, with Badaard Cooley, like Luke Hughes, I mean, you go on and on, it's, there's, there's so many fun rookies this year. And there's ones playing, like, big roles and putting up

immediate production. It's not like, even like a projection in terms of, like, this guy's going to be such a good player. It's like, they're already doing it, right? So, Ridley Grieg. Yeah. If he hadn't gotten hurt, yeah. If he hadn't gotten hurt, I think he would have been a really interesting dark horse he was sick for that senator's team yeah i don't think he'll put up the counting stats for it and the team has has so many players but like matthew potra should not be plus 3,000 i think no based on the start he's had and how his role is just ascending like he's so

valuable that i think he should be more well regarded than that but yeah maybe that just speaks at a depth of his class right there's there's no way though that that there's any better value on this board than Dustin Wolfe of plus 6,000 or plus 66. Yeah. Like at the end of the day, if you're doing a narrative street long shot bet, like who else could come in and be cited widely as the reason a team turned it around? That's true. Like he's the only guy with that.

I just don't think it's going to turn around. Oh, I also don't think anyone but Badard is going to win this award. Baddard or Coley. And even then, you know, the odds have Badard as like a huge favorite, like not even money. Yeah. Whereas Cooley, six to one. But if you were hazarding a long shot bet,

I feel like a guy like Dustin Wolf, if given the chance, has the profile in the American League, it's actually wild that they haven't turned to him yet. Like at some point it's becoming a little, how long do you let your team fritter away a season with like an 880 save percentage when you've got a guy who's consistently 935 in the A? Yeah.

It's just sort of wading in the wings. Like it doesn't make sense. Yeah. Unfortunately, I think there's deeper rooted stuff, but yeah. I agree with you. If you're getting more saves, it'll help. I'm just saying from a value perspective, I think that's the best one on the board. Yeah.

All right. Tom, we got to get out of here. That was a fun. I don't want to spend too much time on it because we are one month into the season. We're going to have plenty of me. At the one, like after every month, I'll bring you back on. And we'll do quick narrative street awards market watch. Degeneracy half hour with Thomas.

This was a blast man. As always, it was great to have you on. I'll let you quickly plug some stuff, let the listeners know what you got going on. Check me out at the athletic. Check me out on SportsNet 650, Canucks Talk. That's it? That's it. That's not got going in it. All right, that's pretty good.

This is a blast, man. Thank you for coming on. Thank you to the listeners for listening to us. As I said, we're doing a big Pablo Mintchikov episode tomorrow. So check that out on this feed. And also on the YouTube channel, as I said, just search HockeyPedocast, smash that five-star button, wherever you're listening to show and give us some love. And we'll be back tomorrow with plenty more of the HockeyPediocast.

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