The Hockey PDOcast - The Eastern Conference Playoff Race, Top Seeds in the West, and Teams Surging Post-Olympics

Episode Date: March 19, 2026

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Dom Luszczyszyn to discuss the run the Blue Jackets have been on coming out of the Olympic break, the playoff picture in the East, and the potential round 1 matchups for the top seeds in the West. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey-PedioCast. My name is Dimitri Filippovich, and joining me is my good buddy, Dom, what's going on, man? Not too much. How are we doing today? We're doing well.

We got a fun list of topics here to get through, and you put out your 16 stats, the latest edition on the athletic, and we're going to co-opt a lot of it. We're going to get some brand synergy going here, and we're going to cross-promote, and we're going to just break down a lot of the stuff you already wrote about, which is very fitting, because it's all stuff I already wanted to talk about with you. And so it worked out very nicely for us. And I want to spend the majority of today's show in particular focusing on some of the trends we've noticed post-Olympics, now that we're pretty much a month out. I think every team's played around 10, 11 games or so by now.

And so I wanted to focus especially on the teams who have had some post-Olympic break surges, either establishing themselves in their respective playoff races or potentially throwing their name into the consideration. And I think the first team we've got to talk about is the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have been the hottest team in the league, just one regulation loss since the Olympic break, really dating back to Rick Bone has taken over in mid-January. They're a league best 16, 2, and 4. and they're still currently sitting just outside the playoff cut line

based on raw points. Wrong. Points percentage, they're in. Of course. Well, that's what I was going to say. I was lining you up there to point out that they have a game in hand on all the teams they're competing with and they also have,

you know, a bunch of fun matchups ahead. But the important thing is they have outs, right? Because they're two points back of the aisles for third in the metro. They're three points back of the penguins for second. but they're also a point out of both wild card spots with the Bruins and Red Wings currently holding those. And that's why, depending on the model you look at, they're around 80 to 85% in playoff probability. It's been a remarkable turnaround for them.

And so I wanted to get into some of the stuff we've seen, particularly over these past 10-ish games since the Olympic break, that have reflected this turnaround for them, what's been causing it, what's been driving it, and how legit it is, I think, moving forward as we get towards the playoffs. Yeah, it looks really legit from my end. Before I talk about that, I do want to establish for the listeners that Dmitri gave me a list of topics before this show, and like 80% of them I had already written about for 16 stats. So there really is not just brand synergy,

but brain synergy from Dim and Dom. We share the same vibes. And Columbus was top of mind. I remember before they hired Rick Bonas, I think Columbus was last in the East and my model gave them a ridiculously high chance of making the playoffs, called them an above average team. They kept losing and I was losing my mind a bit.

So it's nice to see them turn into this, which is, I think they might be the fourth best team in the East. What do you think? among the playoff team because I think Florida and Healthy is probably still there. They're just Florida right now. Yeah, I certainly think that the eight teams most likely to make the playoffs in the East aren't necessarily the eight best teams in the Eastern Conference. And to your point, post-Olympics, 5-15 expected goal share.

These are the top five teams. The stars up at over 58%, the Golden Knights at 57, the Hurricanes of 57, the Aves, 56.8. you'd expect all of those. And then the blue jackets come in fifth at 55%. They're also third and shot sure in that time behind just the canes and the abs. The biggest changes for me, I'm not sure if you agree. One is the team defense, which I think we should expect under a Rick bonus, where I think at the time they were like 28th in goals against,

24th and expected goals against under Dean Eveson. And then since then only the stars have given up fewer goals against. They're all the way up to 15th in expected goals against for the season despite how low they were before this change. And in particular, turning the defense into offense, right? I think Mike Kelly had the stat from Sport Logic where they lead the league in goals within 10 seconds of a fours turnover since the coaching change. And you can see that on tape.

I was watching their game against the hurricanes earlier this week on Tuesday, I believe. And they kind of flipped the script on the hurricanes and did to them what they often do with the opposition where they were just all over them, really limiting their opportunities and then punishing them with turnovers leading to quick goals against. So it's been very impressive and it's been a full team effort. And that's probably the most important. And second thing on my list is the depth where I think coming into the season, we were excited about all their young forwards in particular after some of the

breakouts they had last year. And it was a bit of a slow burn coming into this season. But now especially post the Connor Garland acquisition of the deadline and the Mason Marchman won before that, before the Christmas break roster freeze, it's all come together. And now all of a sudden, I think they're top three lines. make a lot of sense, and they're all contributing and winning their battles. And so it's a team that was so reliant on Zach Wrenski previously.

And as you wrote today at the athletic, that's not really the case anymore. He's still certainly creating so much and driving a ton of the offense. But there's contributions throughout now. It's not just necessarily a one-man team. And I think that bodes very well for them as sustaining this and being a very dangerous out if they're able to get into the playoffs. Yeah, like across the board, you mentioned the top three lines. their fourth line has Boone Jenner on it,

or at least it did when I checked earlier this week. Danton Hinen has been insane defensively. He's gotten the lineup a lot more with bonus. So it is going, like, they're rolling four lines in a way that is very Carolina-s, where I think their bottom six is one of their bigger strengths, and if some of the top forward guys start blossoming more like Fantine Marchenko,

as they've shown of late, I think that is huge for them. And I think grabbing Marchmont and Garland specifically, I think really helps the top six emerge in that way, where they are sort of like these valuable third forwards, where I think of Zach Heim and Toronto, where he was always a third best player on the line, but he was damn good.

And he made a killing, becoming that for McDavid. to the point where he became obviously his sidekick and whatnot. They are obviously still missing a legit star up front, but having Werensky in the back end I think makes up for it. Their top four has been

really impressive. I really like the fact that Sebertson is up with Arenski and actually playing up to his usual ability that he shows in sheltered minutes. He's doing that in an elevated role and I think that's huge for Columbus because they obviously invested

a lot in him, expecting him to be that top four guy. And the start of his tenure, they couldn't really unlock that just yet. And he seems to really be fitting this year. And that second pair, Miteechuk, blossing into a legit top four guy is also really nice for them. It is. So line one, Marchenko, Fantilli, Marchman, they're up 18 to 8 in their 5-15 minutes with a 54% expected goal share. Fantili 19 points in his last 17 games.

and in particular the assist rate has really jumped up. He had 15 in 49 as a rookie. Even last year when he exploded for 30 plus goals in that top line, he only had 23 assists in 82 games. He already has 30 and 67 this year and has been racking them up lately. And I think that's been huge for them. Line 2 is fascinating for me because that coil cylinder combo has been terrific for them all year,

eating up a bunch of heavy defensive responsibilities. And you put Matthew Olivier with them, they're up 25 to 11 in their 5-1-5 minutes. And Coil has had such a monster season. And I had no idea what to make of it. After the last sort of viewings we had of him in that playoff series for Colorado. And then the trade in the off season, he's 34 years old, heading into unrestricted free agency. You're wondering how much he has left in a tank.

He's got 43 primary points this year and is dominating to the eye as well. Like that game I referenced against the hurricanes, that one-handed assist he had. beating two Keynes defenders to set up an Olivier goal, I believe, was a highlight real effort, and he's had a bunch of those stacked together recently. And I'm fascinated to see what it looks like for him moving forward, because as I said, he's going to be 34 years old. But he's coming off a huge year as a right shot center. We know how the market values those players. It's so bereft of that particular type of player in free agency this summer. And if this keeps going this way for the hurricanes, I feel like there's going to be a bit of anchoring bias in terms of like them

feeling like they need to bring him back because of how valuable he's been for them. And I'm sure you and I are not going to love that contract most likely. But I guess we'll see how this plays out for them. And if he's playing this way, it's kind of tough to argue with right now, although obviously given the age and track record, it would be a bit concerning to me. But that line has been undoubtedly phenomenal for them this season. Yeah, I remember I think in January he was doing Ward's Watch.

and the leader was Charlie Doyle because of what he was doing in matchup minutes. And how he looked last year with the abs and what he was able to get for them in a trade baffled me at the time. Because I thought he was 34. He didn't look mid-ish. It felt like a pretty significant overpay, even despite the center market, specifically because they had to take on Miles Wood's contract. And I am still stunned to how amazing he's been, he's been a massive difference maker for them.

And it's hard to imagine what they'd be without him this year because he is what makes, I think, them look so strong up the middle, even though they don't have a superstar just, yeah, I mean, Fantilli Coil Mon-Anne is a pretty strong trifecta right now. It is. So that third line, with the inclusion of Garland with him, Monaghan, and Kent Johnson,

only 60 minutes so far post-stray deadline, but they're up four wide shots are 40 to 21 for the blue jackets. And, you know, Garland's fascinating as well because he only fetches a second and a third at the deadline, largely because of the contract risk where he just turned 30, that six-year, $6 million extension annually is kicking in this summer with a full no-move clause and so Canucks wanted to get out from it. And, you know, his own production had dipped,

this season, I think largely due to the situation he was in, especially post-Quin-Hughes trade. I was probably one of the only people watching those Canucks games, and you could tell that he was kind of going through the motions with very limited effort, and he's an effort-based player, so it's understandable that the results wouldn't come along. Based on that, immediately scores four goals for the Blue Jackets. Now what I find very amusing with him is if you watch all those goals, there's such Connor Garland goals, because he's like getting open backdoor and just through like sheer effort. but cannot lift the puck.

All of them are squeaking by the goalies pads or somehow finding their way in along the ice. And he gets so many chances and so much volume that the goals are going to come. But in watching that, I'm like, how has this guy not been a Carolina hurricane at any point in his career? I feel like the perfect player.

Yeah, like draws penalties, annoying, endless motor, great underlying numbers, always generates chances, but doesn't necessarily turn them into goals. It's a match made in heaven. and yet now he's going to be on the blue jackets moving forward, but he's been a great fit for them.

You asked me earlier the top four teams in the East and if the Blue Jackets are one of them. I'm assuming you meant that 2A, 2B in some order are the Hurricanes Lightning, and then number one with a bullet is the Buffalo Sabres. I do not think the Sabres are the best team in the East. I want to. I really want to believe,

I think a lot of stats people were much more bullish on the Sabres going into the season and we're seeing that it was for good reason. I have a annual best bets looking at the futures market. And I was pretty close to the market this year, like, across the board, except for the Sabres where I think they opened at like 80 points, and I had 90, which usually means there is something wrong somewhere. And it feels like the sentiment went too far in the number. negative direction for what that team was going to the season. At the same time, I feel like the

vibes, which right now are immaculate, can't deny it, have sort of distracted from the fact that like since this streak started, a lot of it is PDO based. And I can buy this team as a finishing team. I think they're going to be one of the strongest finishing teams, the league based on their four death based on how they play. I find it a little harder to believe that they should have the best goaltending in the league at five on five during that stretch. That's where I'm a little concerned. Since the Olympic break,

they've come around a bit, XG-wise, and there's a lot of games where they're leading after the first, and it's sort of a done deal after that. But I, I don't know. I'm still, I feel like I, have moved up a bit, whereas the prevailing sentiment is that everyone has completely flipped

the switch, and I'm a little more cautious still with them. Yeah, I mean, listen, whatever their points percentage during this run since December 9th is, where they're like 140 point team or something like that, obviously no one in the NHL is that, as we've seen with the abs over the past month and a half or whatever. But I do think the process, especially offensively to your point where they probably are going to outscore some of the underlying numbers. And if anything, I feel like they probably could be even more efficient if the power play was a bit more formidable because the even strength offense is certainly legit. So yeah,

I was partly tongue in cheek, but also as listeners know, I'm so all in on the sabres that I had to get that shot in while I could. I think that's fair, though, in terms of that opening for the fourth spot. And listen, despite how well the Blue Jacks have been playing and the models favoring the likelihood of

them making the playoffs, it's still hardly a certainty, right? Especially with the number of teams involved. and we'll see how it plays out. I think they've got games against the Rangers and Cracken, I believe, before a big head-to-head against the Islanders on Sunday. So that'll be a huge matchup for them.

But yeah, I've been really enjoying watching this Blue Jackets team kind of come to life and realize the vision of what we hoped they'd be. Do you want to get into the two other Metro teams they're competing with there in the Penguins and Isles? Because I've got some notes on them as well. Yeah, for sure. I will say that one other thing is they have two home games against the Bruins. So it's not, they have a lot of outs here to get into the playoffs. And I, I think the

Bruins are kind of the most vulnerable team in the East, along with the Isles who, I am also a bit surprised they're still hanging on here, but Sroken and Shaver have always been immaculate this year. Yeah, I felt that way about the Bruins for weeks, if not months now. And yet every night, they find a way to at least squeeze out one point and get into an overtime. And Pasternak does three cool things and Swayman makes a couple of highlight real saves and it's like oh they got another couple points and so all you need yeah um okay the penguins listen i understand some of the skepticism given our preseason expectations the relative strength of the team talent wise from like an on paper perspective and the age of the group in particular and then the schedule as well they've been

going through here in march which has been brutal but we'll continue to be so for the next couple weeks. Yet I think it's undeniable at this point that the offense is certifiably legit, right? There's seventh in goals, fifth and expected goals, first and inner slot shots. They had this crazy game in Carolina on a Wednesday. You and I were talking about before we went on the air. I took a rare night off from watching NHL hockey, took the family to go watch a golden golden eyes PWHL game and then came into studio early today on Thursday to rewatch that and stars, a V,

and it was a wild six, five game that ended in overtime. The Penguins still generated 35 shots on goal, 18 high danger

chances, four plus expected goals worth of offense. And really, I mean, that was a case in that game and has been all season.

The biggest issue is the extra point for them. I believe they're 29 and 18 in games decided in regulation, and then they're

five and 16 in overtimes and shootouts combined. They've won just 10 of their 23 games decided by one goal. That's a 303 point percentage, which is far in a way the worst rate in the entire league. And I don't really know what to chalk that up to.

But when you combine the fact that the offense is as good as it is and it's been going on for as long as it has now, I'm still pretty bullish on them acknowledging that the schedule is brutal. And, you know, this could flip at any moment and the margin is so small at this point. But at least I enjoyed watching them play quite a bit. And if Eric Carlson is going to keep playing this way, I do think they're going to get one of those three metro spots. Yeah, I'm fully on board of the penguins. I was skeptical along with most people before the season started because I wasn't sure what a rookie coach would do. I thought that they would trade a lot of their impact guys.

And to their credit, they kept all of them and probably raised their trade value significantly because of that. and yeah for me it's the forward group which it's just been incredibly good even with crosbie and malcon out you can see how much depth the team has the fourth line has been defensive juggernaut all season crosby is still crosbie and then the top nine they like everything is coming together with kindle being this unreal 18 year old Tommy novac being I think someone who can actually play in the top six now where in Nashville he was hidden from that a lot,

and it's been a nice development for them. And then obviously picking up Igor Chinochinov has been incredible. So I have concerns about maybe the rest of Pittsburgh's defense group and the goaltending feels genuinely scary, but it feels like they're going to play some very fun playoff games if they have this level of offense, which does feel like genuine and legit. I'd have to go back and check this, but I feel like I can recall every Penguins Blue Jackets game this year,

and a lot of them happened earlier in the year being like these crazy four, three overtime shootout games, and incredibly close and high event. And so that would be a very fun playoff series in a two, three matchup potentially, if the Blue Jackets are able to catch the Islanders. So from an entertainment perspective, I feel like that would be a very good outcome. You know, I've been posting a lot of Eric Carlson clips recently on Twitter, because he's just doing vintage stuff. And it's so fun to watch that second goal he scored in Carolina in the third period was outrageous.

He has this like keep in at the blue line where he kicks the puck in out of midair. And then he dances around Sebastian Ajo at the blue line and rips one home. 10 games in March, 16 points. He's playing 24 and a half minutes. They're up 13 to 7 in his 5-on-5 ice time. He's been so, so good. Unfortunately, Chris Lattang did not get the same memo. in turning back the clock.

Post Olympics, he's got a 37% expected goal to share 5-1-5, losing those minutes 12 to 7, and just looks really lost out there whenever I watch him. So that's certainly concerning to your point about the rest of the blue line, but I don't know, if Carlson's going to be able to take on this type of a workload, and they were managing his minutes more early in the year and then really kind of ramped him up here at post-Olympics,

that's a bit scary in terms of relying on him at this age for that volume of minutes. but he's looked so good so far. So I wouldn't hold past him. The Islanders, 7 and 3 post-Olympics. Now, Matthew Schaefer, who regrettably did not make team Canada, and I think we're a good difference. The silver lining for him and the Islanders is that it afforded him three weeks of rest.

And it certainly seems like he made the most of that. And the Islanders used that as an opportunity to ramp up his usage even more. He's playing like 26 minutes per game since then. and that game against the least that was never in doubt brought that down a little bit because he only played like 22-ish or so before that he had had some games approaching 30 he's got 10 points

I think nine of them are primary in those 10 games and at 515 in particular 56% shots 57% high danger chances 62% expected goals just an absolute needle mover and game breaker and so the combination of that

and Sorokin and Nett certainly who has been the best goalie in the league of my this year. And then Matt Barsal having a great bounce back season. Simon Holmstrom has been a total badass post-Olympics as well. I get some of the skepticism, but if you're talking about just a playoff team, I feel like those foundational building blocks of a defenseman who's going to dominate to that degree playing nearly half the game. And then the best goalie in the world, that's not a bad formula for success in terms of getting in. And I'm curious about their power play because it's been so bad this year,

despite the fact that I like a lot of the pieces on it, and they scored a couple goals there against the leaves in that most recent game. So if that can give them a bit more juice offensively, the baseline might be high enough here for them to hang on to one of these spots. If not the third metro spot, then at least one of the wild cards. Yeah, they are likely to get in. I think if you're Columbus or even Ottawa, you're just hoping for one of these flawed teams to make it,

but all of these flawed teams have built up so much goodwill to start the season over the first three quarters that they should be fine. Shaver's been unreal since the Olympic break. For most of the year I've been monitoring what his projected rating has been, not because it compares well to other 18-year-old defensemen because it smokes them.

It's how it compares to what I had for Connor McDavid after his rookie season, where that is the highest projection I've had for a rookie since I've been doing this. And he was at like plus 12.5 off the bat, which is like already like elite. Schaefer's at plus 11.2 right now.

So it's McDavid and Schaefer. And I feel like that speaks to what a lot of people were saying early on the year that this kid is looking genuinely generational. And when you have a player like that, a lot of other stuff almost doesn't matter as much as it would for another team. We're saying the same with the sharks where because they have Celebrini, there are a lot of other holes that don't make as big an impact compared to

another team that has to just get everything right to make up to the fact that they don't have that kind of guy. Do you want to get into the centers real quick before we go to break here? Sure. I think just the theme of this Eastern Conference playoff race and, you know, they've got an uphill climb. they're six two and two since the Olympic break. Unfortunately, the two regulation losses there were really tough ones for them. The first was last week against the Habs where they lost it late in regulation at home.

And the most recent one on Wednesday in Washington where they were controlling play early on, give up a couple goals and just weren't able to dig out of that hole. And they played these last five games without Jake Anderson. And I feel like that this is really sort of highlighted how good and impactful he is in particular, because in his absence, they've had to ramp Thomas Shabbat up back to his previous usage from a couple years ago, and he was playing 30 minutes every night. I think he's up to 27 and a half minutes in these five games and having to have more balanced usage as well, where previously they were able to use them more for offensive zone opportunities. Now he's having a shoulder of bigger burden all across three zones. And I feel like I was talking about this with Kevin Woodley last week because we were talking about the senator's goaltending and sort of this heavy possession style they play.

reminiscent of the hurricanes, right? And how for the hurricanes, one of the issues for their goalies has been, when you have the puck in the zone, offensive zone for that long, there's going to come a time where the puck bounce is weird, or you miss a shot, or lose possession, and then it's just an odd-band rush opportunity going back the other way.

And that hasn't really been the case for the senators this year, largely because Sanderson's typically out there for half the game. And if that happens, he's so good at getting back defensively and limiting the damage or breaking it up entirely. and so without him there to eliminate a lot of that risk, it gets them into a tough spot and makes everyone play significantly more minutes and tougher minutes.

And I feel like that's going to be an unavoidable issue for them as long as he's out. Yeah, it's sort of, you don't really know what you have in these like number one types until they're out and you're sort of without your security blanket. I think we saw a bit of this with the stars last year when Heiskenen was out and everyone was hyping up Harley, us included. and even when Heisen was out, they didn't even put Harley into those matchup minutes.

They used Lindell and Cece, and that went as Ceil as you expected. But it is a job where Sanderson's impact makes it a lot easier for Shabbat to look, do his best at 515, and then you switch those guys and the Ottawa centers look a bit like they used to, where obviously goal-tending has been a problem all season and they've been

strong defensively but they just there are a few more cracks with Chabot the top lineup instead of Sanderson and Shabat's a great player

it's just not a role he's suited for and I don't know I think Ottawa can still make it I think defensively top of on there's still a strong team but

in terms of a player to lose that is the worst one they could have done because their defense outside of him is good, but flawed in their own individual ways.

Yeah, that's kind of what I was hinting at earlier when I was saying that the eight teams that make it might not be the eight best teams. And like whenever you use any of these stats, whether it's post-New Year or post-Olympic break, which is a smaller sample, whatever category you sort by,

it's like the stars, blues jackets, hurricanes, abs, and then the senators as one of the top five teams across the board and yet we're getting perilously close to a spot where it's just going to be too big of a gap for them to overcome with too many teams to leap frog and so we still got some time left for them but each one of these losses just makes it feel too steep to overcome my opinion um last note on the east before we go to break do want to quickly touch on the hurricanes just because

I noticed that you have a pretty sizable gap in your Stanley Cup probability for them compared to Jack Fraser's model at hockey stats, for example. And I have a good feeling I know where you're coming from with that. I do wonder, though, because we'll still see, like, the margins pretty close between them and the lightning who have some games in hand, and then the sabers who are very live for finishing first in the east outright. But assuming the hurricanes are able to hold on to our number one spot and have home ice throughout, and then the relative strength of matchups,

we'll see how the wildguards shake out, but especially in round two, whoever they face coming out of the metro, compared to one of these Atlantic teams, if it's a Buffalovers Tampa, for example, in round two through the Atlantic, I feel like that the combination of those two

would probably bump them up slightly in my favor compared to what you have them at, but I'm curious to get into that a little bit because the goaltending has fallen off post-Olympics, and that would be highly alarming. Yet all of their underlying numbers are vintage Carolina hurricanes across the board, and otherwise they look like pretty much the same team

they've been for a couple years now. Yeah, this is, so the Carolina Hurricanes, you know what they're about. Nothing wrong with it to get to the third round. So a lot of it is my model really loves Tampa Bay. That's been the company line since the start of the season. I think Corey Perry adds a little bit more depth

to the whole thing where I would say Caroline's biggest advantage over almost any team is their depth. They can win second, third, fourth matchups. I don't think that's an advantage against Tampa Bay with how good Gord's line looked, how great their top six is, whatever the hell Kutrov is doing every night. The fact they haven't had Nick Paul for most of the year either, like this is, I think Tampa's deepest team in a long time where they can go toe to toe any line against Carolina and then have the star power to

tilt the scales. And then you put the whole goal tending situation into it. And I just, I don't think those, these two, I think there's levels to the east and I don't know if Carolina is as close to Tampa Bay as maybe their underlying number suggests. And like, goaltending is huge for me where I don't feel safe with Bussie or Anderson at all. And Tampa has like this ultimate trump card

where they have a top three goalie behind a super team where it's getting harder to picture these two teams in my mind as equals at the top of the east like I can see Carolina out shooting Tampa Bay in a game as they

do most games but it'll feel like an overdrive version of what they had to deal with the Rangers a few years ago where we've seen goalies getting Carolina's head year after year after year. I think Vaslesk can do that same thing to them. And the other thing is you talked about the path.

I think I'm a little more worried about Carolina's path if Ottawa squeaks in and they have to get Ottawa and then Columbus. Like that is a bit scarier than Tampa who might face like Boston or whatever. However it shakes out, I think Ottawa, getting Ottawa in round one would be a tough draw for either team. But I think Tampa is better situated to handle it. I guess I'm just repressing the possibility that that could even happen because I feel like aesthetically a hurricane setter series is going to set hockey back 20 years. So it's almost the opposite of what I just said about Penguins, Blue Jackets, for example, is a round one possibility. Yeah, listen, there's seven and four post-Olympics.

the offense is better and more dangerous it's been in the past. I think that's pretty clear. And even in the head-to-head matchups they've had against Tampa, they haven't really had any issues. Now, I don't think Vaselowski played all those games,

but you could see, especially with some of Tampa's blue liners, in particular, Victor Headman, who, you know, hopefully will look more like Victor Headman at some point as he just gets more games under his belt, but it's still really exploitable,

in my opinion, and struggling with speed. Yeah. They've had some, some success there. The issue has been, to your point, the goaltending, where I think Bussy was playing really well, and the raw percentage didn't necessarily even reflect it

because it was a lot of two-odd-ones and breakaways he was facing, but it's really come back down on Earth, post-Olympics. And, you know, they haven't had Gossus Bear for nearly half those games. So I think that hurts them quite a bit. But yeah, they're going to need at least a certain baseline level to allow everything else to play in for them. Otherwise, it could be an uphill battle. So I think that would be a really interesting thing to monitor.

moving forward. Let's take our break here, Dom, and then we come back. We're going to close it out. We're going to switch gears, talk about the West a little bit, and then some individual awards talk as well. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the Hockeypedio cast, joined by Doml. We spent the first part of the show talking about the East. Let's quickly touch on the West. I find the East more compelling because a lot of the West playoff race talk is like, oh, is it going to be the Kings or the Predators or the Sharks? having a tough time drumming up interest in how consequential that's going to be as fun as it would be to see this young shark scene with Celebrini getting some playoff reps on that type of a stage. And I'm sure he'd have a bunch of dazzling moments. And it would be cool, even if not ultimately fruitful for them.

Ultimately, it just feels so much less consequential. Now, an interesting monkey wrench in all this is that the stars after that game on Wednesday are now within two points of the aves for, for drawing. that number one seed that would face that wildcard two in the west and i think the as are still clearly in the driver's seat they have a game in hand they have the regulation wins tiebreaker they have a significantly softer schedule remaining the two teams do have one more head to head in dallas on april so that could be the difference maker but i'm fascinated by stars aves in general because we've seen three head to heads between these teams this year all three of them have gone a shootout and the margin between them is as razor thin as it's ever been they're both

incredibly good. I don't know if you have any thoughts on that. If you watch that game on Wednesday, especially with the stars elevating their play, post-Olympics really even before that and becoming a much better 5-15 team to go along with the power play stuff and doing it all in particular without hints

and rant and available and kind of how that positions them against the SAVs team that I think we've all just penciled in and assumed as the clear favorite in the West. Yeah, and I still think they are. They've got their own entries. Their record without Landisog this year is really funny. That game looked a lot like last year's playoffs where the abs just dominated from start to finish

and they got injured and that's the name of the game. I think it'll be a lot closer when everyone's healthy but it just seems like these two teams are very content playing that way and letting the chips fall where they do and the abs not necessarily like brought to the perimeter but they the stars are comfortable soaking up that pressure and then counter attacking and all that and you get hints back with his speed I think that'll be a big thing I like I still like Colorado they have McKinnon and McCar and I think those are going to be two best players in any series and that is

is big for me. I like Colorado's depth from top to bottom and I'm sure as good as he was yesterday he has not been as sharp all year where there might be a bit of concern. I don't know. Even with that game, I think especially because of that game and how Colorado dominated, it's still Colorado

for me. Do you feel the same way? Yeah, I think so. I do think this star team is really good. And I think that's been lost a little bit despite where they are in the standings because of the shawl volume and I think just like a misunderstanding of maybe what they're trying to do or the way they play and that's been mitigated a little bit here because they've been dominating much more a 5-1-5 over these past 15-20 games but yeah you can even see it in that one where I think it's clear especially in that matchup like I think the stars realized despite playing better they're not going to have more zone time or shot attempts or even

chances than the abs and are kind of content playing back a little. bit and then opportunistically striking in transition and they got their fair share of looks doing so there as well and you know scored on one of them off that rebound they came to Robertson but had a couple other great looks doing so and so it's a fascinating chess matchup between those two and if we get that in round two again this year I think it's going to live up to the hype again the other part of this is you know whoever wins the Pacific is going to face wild card one and I'm curious for your take on how the model sort of reacted to the news. The dry cycle is going to be out for the rest of the regular season.

And then in general, trying to sort of size up this three-horse race between the Ducks, Golden Knights and Oilers. I think the theme of today's show is flawed teams. And the ducks are still currently hanging on despite the fact that their sport logic has them 32nd unexpected goals against this year. The Golden Knights are a top five team across the board in pretty much every category, except for goal-tending. And wins as well, yeah, especially in regulation.

And, you know, Aiden Hills bounced back a little bit over the past couple games. I still think it's a pretty massive concern for them moving forward. And then the Oilers certainly defensively. And now without dry sight, all it, it might not matter if McDavid's just going to play 27 minutes and have three assists every time out. But I also do worry about the toll that's going to take if he has to do that for 15 more games and then get into a playoff setting. If anyone can handle it, it's a cyborg like him.

But I don't know. where's your model at with those three teams and kind of how it's going to shake out because they're all within a point or two of each other. And I'm not sure it's that big of a gap regardless. Like the ducks would probably benefit the most from it just because they've clearly been much better at home this year than away. And I think it'd be a big feather in their cap. But I'm not sure it matters as much for the Oilers and Golden Knights

beyond just staying away from each other in a round one matchup. Yeah, I think staying away from each other is going to be the key for both of them because as good as Utah has been this year and they're the likely wild card one, that is still a better draw than facing each other. I knew you were going to do that. See, don't try to smear the good name of the Utah. I'm not smearing.

I think they'll be a favorite over Anaheim in round one, and I think that's what they should be rooting for. And I think the series could be close against either of Vegas or Edmonton, but if there's a hierarchy, like it's probably still Vegas, Edmonton, close, and then Utah, and then Anaheim, which is shaping up

to what the Pacific bracket will be. Anaheim, I think, has the edge just because they're ahead right now and they have a really soft schedule going forward. Vegas, they've been so dominant five-on-five lately that you've got to figure at some point the breaks come their way that it could be them.

Edmonton, they definitely got to drop. with dry-sidal out to the point that they're very likely to finish third. And to be honest, they're closer to L.A. for me now and fourth than than Vegas and second, although it's, again, razor-thin margins of mid where we're talking about 90.5 points to 94 points of projection. Yeah, that is brutal for the ducks where, as I said, like they're 22, 10 and 2 at home or something and sub-500 on the road. And so it undoubtedly would undoubtedly be huge for them to start out at home and win the Pacific.

but the mammoth are just a brutal matchup for them in my opinion. Like this structured team that is not going to give up much and is going to punish you in transition against this Ducks team that doesn't really have a plan beyond skating forward and trying to have fun. And so I do not like that for them, but I think still... Do you like any of the matchups for them? Because Vegas is sort of similar. And Edmonton, I think at least since they brought Paul Coffey back,

has been a lot better defensively. that regard. So is there a matchup where you like Anaheim here between those three options? It might be Vegas, even though they're objectively a better team, just because I could see the ducks going off and scoring five plus goals every game against Aden Hill, given the way this season's 15 shots. Yeah. And I think that's plausible, whereas the other two, it's tougher, I think, to paint a compelling case. But yeah, I don't know. We'll see. Do you have any other parting shots on the west or do you want to close out with some individual awards talk?

I just want to say that I'm personally rooting for a shark's avalanche first round because I think it would be one of the greatest things we'll ever watch. It'll certainly be something. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Celebrini is remarkable. I was watching that game against the Oilers and

he does so much cool stuff. He had this offensive zone draw against Jason Dickinson where he just like overpowered him, wanted forward, and then immediately set up a great A for Colin Graf out of thin air. And I was like, oh, he's already doing that at this point of his career. I feel like that took Crosby a couple years at least to figure out. So God help us all.

But I think part of what's worrying me about the sharks is, you know, every organization goes through this where like you have the ascendant phase after the rebuild where it's like you start playing competitive games and it's exciting and you know you're flawed and you're still a ways away, but it's a necessary step. And I'm always fascinated to see how organizations are going to handle that internally. And I can't say I've really liked what I've seen from the coaching staff in dealing with some of these games. I thought the decision to just throw Nick Letty in there in that game against the Oilers

was pretty wild, given the context. And I haven't loved Michael Mesa's usage. I get that he's a rookie teenager and he's going to go through his lumps, but he certainly looks the part of an impactful player to me every time I watch him. and I don't know how many of these game score charts you've seen where it's like the sharks have played tonight, Michael Mesa was one of the top players, and he played 11 minutes and created four scoring chances in that time.

And I'd like to see that ramped up a little bit as opposed to trying to force him onto Celebrini's wing and bumping Will Smith down and all the stuff they did in that Oilers game. So, you know, if that was a one-off, that's okay. But if that's going to be a sign of like them tilting a little bit because all of a sudden now they're actually playing games of significance and consequence is not knowing how to handle it, that would be a bit concerning to me

even with how low the bar is to clear against some of these other teams they're competing with. Yeah, there are games of significance and they're learning opportunities, so why not lean on your future core? And Misa has been really nice and effective for his rookie season.

I'd definitely like to see more of him. I understand why there's hesitation, sometimes with rookies because he's not very good defensively, neither is Will Smith. It makes sense that if the playoffs are on the line, there's more of a risk-averse approach in that way, where coaches always will be more afraid of getting scored on

than hoping to actually get a goal. But they're just not the Sharks' MO to be risk-averse. This is a team built on the risk-reward profile that I think MISA, can bring more out of not in the same way that Celebrity has but in a similar way where they can have that

I think strong offensive spine Yeah that's exactly what I'm saying right Like the reason they're in this position to begin with ahead of schedule is because of Kind of just unabashedly just like being like All right let's just get after it and see where it goes And then now all of a sudden trying to be like the LA Kings I don't think is going to lead to success for them in the short term

So I'd like to see them like stay true to form. And even if they don't make it, I think it'll benefit them in the long run. We've got a couple of minutes here for award stuff. You write the awards watch regularly on the athletic. I think the Norris is pretty clearly the most intriguing one. And I'm very glad that I do not have a ballot because I don't know if I could pick three

out of really, I'll say a top seven for me at this point. And it's a fascinating class because, you've got the incumbents. You could go by, you know, offensive impacts and points. You could put it all together the way you try to do. And if you do so, you're going to bump up a guy like Mo Cider, certainly, who's been outrageous this year with what he's had to work with.

And then you get into how good Ross Mastalien's been during the Sabres run, especially post-Olympics and Lane Hudson kind of quietly. I know he's tied for second in points at the position, but I feel like it's still not being talked about enough that he's, been recently playing like on his offside with jaden strouble and still just posting these 70% expected goal share of games night in and night out and creating game breaking moments and goals for for the haves as they stick in a playoff spot so i don't know there's so many very reasonable and worthwhile cases to sort through and i don't necessarily know how you stack up

all of them one through seven at this point yeah who are you excluding because i have not And one of them is Sanderson And he's injured, so that's fine. Yeah. I didn't include Sanderson because of the the games missed recently. And I think the total volume is going to hurt him. But I have McCar, Hughes, Wrenzke,

Bouchard, Hudson, Daly, and Insider. Stars fans are not going to like that exclusion. Yeah. That's fair. That's fair. Okay, let's make it a top eight. And I think that is the big story here. And it's something I'm going to write about

next week. So this is a little sneak peek. This is the most ridiculous Norris race I've ever seen where there are so many defensemen who would have won this award with this season five years ago, who will not be like, Heisken is probably not going to be in the top five. And if he had this exact season in 2020, he might be winning. That's how good he's been at both ends of the ice. that is, I think, the standard that used to be there that has risen so much with this just unbelievable class of defensemen. We haven't had a defenseman in the heart race since Chris Pronger in 2000. I think we are going to get one in the next five years

with how good a lot of these guys are in terms of driving their team four. I mean, Hudson is Montreal's driver. Cider is Detroit's driver. Sanderson is Ottawa's driver. Werenski is plus. Columbus is driver, Dahlina's Buffaloes. And that's not something we've seen as much in the past, where the clear best player on the team is their top defensemen.

It used, like it's happened, but it's been a bit more rare compared to what we're seeing this year. And the thing for me, and I'll just pull this up quickly, So from 2007 to 2021, I had one guy with a net rating above 20. This year there are six players pacing above that. So what would have won any other year, like there's going to be one guy who's not on the ballot at all given that. And we don't even mention Adam Fox, who would definitely be. be in this range, but has only played like 37 games or whatever.

Yeah. Yeah, no, I think that's fair. And I think, you know, you're right. I hastily put together this list in preparation and Mary Hayeskin and certainly deserves to be on it. He's been so good. And I think just casually doing so well playing like, what, 26 minutes a night and doing everything for them.

I think part of it for me in terms of the omission was I've just got S. Lendell on the mind, not to be a, not to be an annoying hockey hipster. But I feel like he's been doing this for a long time, but I feel like this season in particular is just giving me such an added appreciation. I feel like, especially the PK, he's been just such an eraser. And those two kind of go hand in hand. But Hayskin and is certainly the driver there. And yeah, I'd include Sanderson as well because, you know, I can't talk out of both sides of my mouth, like what he does from a volume perspective and enabling a lot of what's made the senators as successful as they've been this season when they have. he deserves some love there as well

so it's an incredible crop players the last one of the Jack Adams because I don't know if you do you agree with Lindy Ruff kind of establishing himself as the favorite now like I feel like for a long time especially with Tampa being first in the Atlantic everyone felt like it was the time for John Cooper to finally win this award especially with all the injuries

they've had to navigate and maybe how that division shakes out is going to ultimately determine it although I feel like there's a lot of steam for Ruff with the Sabres ending this playoff drought and this run they've been on for nearly 40 games now and especially with the playing style they're playing. I think he deserves a lot of credit for that. I've had a few nitpicks with some of the usage stuff along the way, but for the most part, I think he's done a really good job. I think it's pretty clear regardless of how you net out, though, that it's Ralph Cooper and then Dan Buse as a pretty clear three for me.

Those are the three. Without question, I think if Rick Bonus got hired, 20 games earlier. He's got a case for sure. It's always tough because the Jack Adams award is we thought you guys would not be this good, but wow, you guys are that good. And so Buffalo is the easy choice because of that. I still want to say Cooper because of just how strong this team looked when they had so many injuries pile up night after night. and he's still to me the best coach in hockey and he has never won this award and if there's a year for a lifetime achievement award

I think this is a good one considering I think the difficulties he had with just how much talent was out of the lineup and how I mean he's able to turn Darren Radish into the most prized UFA this summer where I model loves him. He looks great when I watch him. I'd still be terrified of him outside of Tampa Bay,

and I think that's a credit to Cooper for just turning him into a number one defenseman. Like, that's crazy to me. I don't know. I can see why Larry Ruff would win. I would not have any problem with that. It's still just Cooper for me. Yeah, it's fair. I see the case for both.

I think Dan Muse is going to finish as a distant third, but man, the job he's done. Which is unfortunate. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, comparing them to the previous versions of the Penguins, and I know they tinkered with the roster quite a bit this off season, but still, it's pretty clear that everyone is just in such a better position to succeed and enjoying their time playing hockey so much more and doing so in a very thoughtful way offensively.

And I give him the lion's share of credit for that. All right, buddy, this was a lot of fun. We got to get out of here. I will let you promote some stuff. on the way out. Let the listeners know about that 16 stats piece that we pretty much just did an audio book for here today. But you can check that out in written form and then whatever else you got coming up over with athletic. Yeah, 16 stats, biweekly because I'm still waiting for more tracking stats to make something that I can do every week. But for now, every two weeks,

a lot of fun nuggets that are already in Dimitri's brain get put on the page. Awards watch next week and then a bunch of defense and stuff we just discussed where I'll talk about how this current crop compares to the last 20 or so years and also because you mentioned S. Lindell, how a best defensive defenseman award would look like because I think he might be the frontrunner for that this year. Oh, hell yeah. All right. I'm looking forward to that. Keep up the great work, buddy. We will have you on again soon. If you enjoyed today's show, give us a five-star review wherever you listen. Subscribe to the PDOcast Patreon as well. We had Jack. on yesterday so you could check out our conversation there. And that is all for this week.

We'll be back Monday morning with Drans for our Sunday special. Have a great weekend. And thank you for listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.