The Hockey PDOcast - The Eastern Conference power hour

Episode Date: December 8, 2022

Dimitri is joined by Ryan Lambert as the pair run through an Eastern Conference Power Hour.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey-Pedocast. My name's Demetri Pilipovich, and joining me is my good buddy Ryan Lambert. R.L. What's going on, man? Oh, you know, I'm hanging in there. Went to a college hockey game last night. Same as always. Who'd you watch?

UMass versus Merrimack. Merrimack is a team that doesn't have a lot of, like, big prospects and that sort of stuff. but they're one of the five or six best teams in the country this year, weirdly. Nobody really expecting it. But yeah, they're pretty good. Nice. I like it. All right.

Well, here's the plan for today. I concocted a fun exercise for us. So we're calling this the Eastern Conference power hour. What we're going to do is you and I are going to run through all 16 East teams. We're going to give them three minutes a pop. and we're going to alternate going back and forth down the list in alphabetical order and we're basically going to give a stat that's noteworthy or relevant or tells the story of this team's season so far through 25 games or so and it's going to give us a chance

to just cover as much ground as we possibly can at one show. I'll do the Western Conference next week with another guest, but you know, the East Ghost bias is real. So we're going to start with the East here. So that's the plan. I'm going to give you the floor here because you got to sign the Bruins in their first on our list. So I'm going to start the clock here and we're going to get three minutes and we're going to go. All right. So the number one thing that people have been kind of joking about lately

with the Bruins, I guess is that they put Taylor Hall, Charlie Coyle and Trent Frederick on a line together. And you would normally think, oh, there's an offensive dynamo waiting to happen. They are among lines that have played 40 minutes or more together at five on five since 2007-08. They have the seventh highest goals per 60 at 9.1. Oh. Yeah. And then you go down the list of like other lines that are ahead of them. It's like one with Kane and Taves, Panarin Crider's Abanajad, Kutrov, Stamcoast, Coulorne, a Sidney Crosby line.

And then there's two at the bottom, well, not the bottom, but still above the Bruins line. Alish Cotelic, Michael Backland and Renee Bork, and Eric Fier, Joel Ward, and Matthew Perrault. Those are some names. Those are some names. Remember some guys, yeah. Yeah, I was really laughing about that. But yeah, those guys are scoring like crazy. And if you want to know how right it's going for the Bruins,

a Trent Frederick line is one of the most effective scoring lines in recent NHL history. It is. We're getting to the point. I mean, like we're going to do the devils later in this exercise. And for both of these teams, I feel like any stat that you give me at this point, I will believe. Yeah. In terms of it being good, right? Because like pretty much any way you cook it up, anything they're doing, it's working for them.

And they're like one of the best in the league regardless of who's out there. And so I believe it. saw an interesting quote there. Usually these post-game or intermission quotes from players are like the most generic, useless things ever. But Hall had an interesting one where he was basically saying like the team playing as well as it is right now makes it a lot easier for him actually because he doesn't have to worry about his individual stats.

And he's just basically just like doing his thing out there. And then when they score, it's all gravy. And at this point of his career where he's at, like that must be such a nice luxury compared to some of the previous teams he played on where if he wasn't scoring two or three goal, or three points in that given night, his team probably wasn't going to have a chance to win. So it's like it's a nice luxury for him. And it kind of shows both how far he's come and also how far this Bruins team has come as well. Yeah, no, they're, you know, like I said, when those guys are cooking, it, you know, this is just an unstoppable team right now.

I love it. And I love that we did our first one. And we didn't even mention any of the important players on the Bruins. So this is a rock-or-rollicking start. Those guys are carrying the water. This is noteworthy and it tells the story. So you're right. This is the point of this exercise and we're through three minutes.

We've got to stay on course here. We're going to go Buffalo Sabres. So here's the most important stat I have for you that tells the full story of their season. They're up 53 to 37 in the 515 minutes where they have at least one of Rasmus Dahlina or own power on the ice. Now that's 850 plus minutes so far this season. So it's a big sample. That's a 59% goal share, which would put them. third best in the league behind just the devils and Bruins. Now, unfortunately, those guys can't be

on the ice at all times. They have a third pair. And when that pair is out there, they're getting absolutely pummel. I think they're down 23 to 10 or something. I view that status as encouraging for the Sabres moving forward because it shows to me that their young players are their best players, but also not only can they hang with everyone, but they can actually win whatever matchup they're in. And so moving forward, you'd think not to take it for granted, but you think that, that this organization is going to be able to cobble together better depth and find third pair of defensemen that can at least kind of stay net neutral and not get completely destroyed every time they're out there. And if that's the case and these young guys are playing as well

as they are, all of a sudden, you're really cooking with something good. Yeah. And for now, they have the financial flexibility like next summer to do that, right? Like they don't, they don't have to start worrying about the big contracts for Owen Power quite yet. So, yeah, And here's a thing. Look at their team offense. They're third in goals. Their ninth and expected goals generated. They're 12, I believe, in high danger chances. Like, they're legitimately, I know, like last night's explosion against Columbus certainly helps in terms of the most recent performance we've seen from them. But they've been really good all year. And I mentioned this on a previous podcast. I don't want to compare anyone to what the New Jersey Devils are doing this year because

it's such like an aberration in terms of how much better they got. Yeah. But I think we're seeing some there's some breadcrumbs here in terms of like a really good young team that's destroying everyone offensively that has stuff to iron out defensively in that kind of details but that's the easy stuff to figure out right like if these young players keep getting better they use that financial flexibility to go out and find a john marino bring in vtick vatic vannichick to give them at least some stability in that all of a sudden that's how you take that big leap and go from being like fun exciting scoring a lot of goals to just destroying people and winning a lot of games and I think people might be surprised if they nail those steps,

like how quickly the Sabres team becomes legitimately good as to his next season. Yeah, I think I looked it up today. They're in terms of goals per game, not goals per 60 or whatever, goals per game, I believe they are number one in the NHL and they are scoring four goals a game.

The fact that they're this far out of the playoffs scoring four goals a game is crazy. Yes. But it just speaks to what their goaltending situation. Right. But also like if you look at it, The only players that are losing their minutes when they're out there are like Jacob Bryson, Casey Fitzgerald, Casey Middlestad, all the Casey's. Victor Oliveson, none of these guys are under contract beyond next season and I assume do not factor into their future plans.

So like I view this all as a very positive for them moving forward and I'm liking what I'm seeing. Absolutely. The Hurricanes. You're up. So currently, evolving hockey says their goalies have stopped plus 0.0.0.0.0.0. 0.9 goals saved above expected. Last year, they were like plus 37. The year before that, they were like plus 22.

This is a team that generally makes it very easy on their goals. And let me put it this way. The only reason they're plus 0.09 right now is like Peter Kachetkov is plus 4.7 or something like that. So like the other two goalies have been like actively bad. and it doesn't matter this team. It's still one of the best teams in the NHL. Yeah, I believe they give up the fewest shots for sure, but I like pretty much every defensive metric in terms of their suppression.

Yep. They're elite. I was actually surprised to see that they're only plus four in terms of goal differential for the season. Now, I think they're 32nd in shooting percentage as well. Part of it is as we talked about where they're shooting from and kind of the way they play. But yeah, it's crazy. And right, right, they just can't get a save on top of that.

It's kind of a a little bit of a throwback to what the hurricanes used to be. You know, and now, I don't know, like, I have a lot of faith that they'll be able to, you know, get it straightened out and start putting the puck in the net more and that kind of thing. But like, you know, even if the goaltending continues to be more or less what you would expect a typical goal.

to give up, they're going to be fine. Yeah. And I like Kochekov. I know it's a really small sample, but he's fun to watch a net. And also he's got good results basically everywhere he's played leading up to the NHL, which inspires confidence. Plus with a nickname Kucci, I mean, so, you know, he's right up there. He's, he's going to do well.

So yeah, I mean, it's a, it's, the hurricanes are kind of boring to talk about in the sense that a lot of the, the stuff you look at is kind of just like recurring. themes in terms of the way they're playing, the results they're generating. Now, yeah, like you mentioned the goaltending stuff is a bit off from where it's been in the past couple of years. But yeah, they're really stangy defensively. I do think they still actually make it easy for their goalies because you look at the way they pressure and, you know, guys like Slaven and Jordan Stahl, like how quickly they close

out on shooters. For sure. They're going to be good. But yeah, you're right. If the puck start going in just a little more for them and their goalies start saving a bit more than expected, all of a sudden, they're going to shoot up all the goal differential and stuff like that. Okay, the Blue Jackets.

Yeah. What do you even say about a team that just performed the way we saw last night? There was a point, and this was on national TV on TNT, there was a point like two minutes left in the first period where Tage Thompson had four goals scored. They had three shots as a team. And that's pretty much all there is to it. I mean, it was already a shallow team to begin with, and they've been decimated by injury. as well, right? Like you got to know, you got to mention the fact that Zach Wrenski was having an awesome

season and he means so much to his team, not only in terms of usage, but just how much everything flows through him and kind of separating him from the equation, all of a sudden, you're left with a defensive depth chart that goes as follow. These are the sixth defensemen they used last night. Eric Branson, Tim Bernie, Andrew Beek, Andrew Peake, Gavin Bayruther, Marcus Bjork, and Vladislavkov. I did not make up any of those names. Those are the six defensemen they used last night. And while I acknowledge that the personnel they're working with, when you watch them play,

they're just so horrific defensively, Ryan. I mean, they're giving up 36 shots a game. They're giving up 4.17 goals against per game, which is you have to go back to like the early 90s to find any equivalent to that. But even that doesn't do it justice because when you watch them play, I don't know how to describe what you see, but it's like somehow none of their players are ever near the opposition.

Like there's, if you're playing against them, you can literally do anything you want. There's so much space. It really feels like a game of shini where it's just like everyone's kind of just coasting around and no one actually is like checking anyone. It's, it's wild.

It must be so fun to play against them as I'm sure, you know, Tage Thompson felt last night because it's like, there's never anyone here. No one's ever contesting your shots. You can just waltz into the zone, go to wherever you want and then shoot. and I don't they have bad players but also they don't seem to have any plan in terms of what they

want to do yeah there's there's being able to say well look at how bad our our lineup is and and how much injuries are affecting us and whatever but to your point they really do look like have these guys ever met each other before yeah you know like the shinny thing it's it's true like when you you know you go to the rank and you you know you all throw sticks in middle and maybe you know one or two other guys, but that's about it. Like, that's what it feels like watching these guys. And, and, you know, there are, you talk about the defense. The offense stinks too.

Yeah. You know, like that's, that, and that was kind of the thing that we were all, you know, they get, uh, they get Johnny Goddrow and, and you're like, okay, well, you know, him plus their young guys, plus Patrick Line, A, like, maybe they can put something together here. And then the blue jackets were like, not so fast, buddy. We can't do that either. Well, and Goodroll has actually been good, right?

Like he's down from where he was last year, but like he's going to score 30 goals, 90 points. They're actually up at 5 on 5 with him on the ice, I believe he's like their only regular skater, which you can say that for. And it just doesn't matter because everything around has not worked. Yeah, it's painful. Okay, wow, we did three pretty good minutes on the blue jackets there. I'm proud of us. Okay. You're up with the Red Wings.

The Detroit Red Wings are very interesting team to me because they are 20, fourth in five on five expected goals percentage. They are 12th in all situations expected goals percentage. And you look at the numbers and you go, well, how's that possible? They must be destroying on special teams. And it's like, not really. Like if you look at what their power play efficiency looks like and how their penalty kill is playing, like, it's not like unbelievable, you know?

In fact, their power play is a little below. average and in terms of like percentage and the PK is a little above it. But what is interesting is they are, again, in terms of expected goals, like they're actually generating quite a bit of offense when they're killing penalties and they're, and they're not giving up anything the other way when they're on the power play. So like that alone seems to be what's moving them from like, oh, they're like a bad five on five team to in all like taken as a whole they're actually pretty good I'm really interested to see if they can if they can kind of keep that up just because

you know you look at their roster and you go well surely they can't keep it up well here's what changed though three there three kind of like high leverage pressure points they address this summer one sure they brought in a coach who seems to be good at least in terms of like devising a game plan getting his players prepared. Like gone are the days of Jeff Blaschell just kind of standing on the bench just with this like kind of like smirk on his face as if he knows that he's getting paid to do nothing. Like they actually, Derek Lanz has done a really good job coming from Tampa Bay and stalling at least some sort of structure.

They brought in Billy Huso, who's following up on last year and actually looks like a above average goalie. And, you know, some of the like veterans that they signed and brought in, even if you didn't like the contracts for like long term flexibility. and giving them more money than they probably deserve, it gave them like a level of competency and like legitimate NHL players all throughout the lineup. And so it makes sense that they've gotten better,

even if they have overperformed. Like I think it's pretty clearly a significant step in the right direction from last year and years previous. Yeah, I mean, you got, you know, if you're a team that's been rebuilding as long as the Red Wings have in one form, like depending on how you want to define rebuilding, I guess. but if you want to say like, okay, we can't be tanking forever, how do you accelerate that in a way that makes sense and isn't just

Canucks-ish, if you want to put it that way? Yeah. As you go and you spend maybe a little bit too much money on, you know, like the fourth best free agent at his position, as opposed to this is the second best. defenseman on the market today and we're going to throw him all this money so we guarantee he comes here whereas you know if they go out and they get Andrew copp for example like he he's what probably wasn't first on anybody's list right as like centers he probably wasn't super high up on

everybody's list but he's a very competent NHL player who if you put him in the right positions will play well for you and I don't know you know I don't know what more you can do if you're Steve Iserman to kind of make it a little easier on your death guys. Yeah. Yeah, I completely agree. Okay, Florida Panthers. So last year, they set the high watermark for offensive creation in this era, basically, right? They were like literally the best regular season team what you've seen in 15 years in terms of shots, chances, expected goals, everything.

This year, they're actually slightly better in every single one of those categories. They're averaging 38.4 shots per game, 15.3 high-age chances per game, and 3.8 expected goals. free game. The only difference is that they've gone down to 10th in actual goal scored because their 29th and team shooting percentage. Now, I think there's a key distinction here between what last year's team was doing and what this year's team is doing. At least it partially explains that. I asked Stephen Valquette about if Clearside Analytics was showing any sort of difference in terms of the way they're creating this. And they have them down from first in expected goals generated off the rush, which was their bread and butter, the 14th.

which they're still above average, but it's a pretty clear departure. And specifically, it's weird. They were first in breakaways last year. They're 25th so far this season. Wow. So, you know, clearly in terms of their roster construction, the personnel and the coaching, like they've changed,

they're still generating a lot. It's coming in different ways. And I think that explains part of it. I still am a believer in them in the sense that, like, I think just when you have the type of volume that they're generating, you're going to score goals. and they've been playing the last little while, like without Barkaw,

without Lundell, and because of how close they are under the cap, they're not even dressing anyone in their place. They're basically playing down a couple of guys. Yeah, Neckflad missed a bunch of games too. You did, yeah. And like,

so I think in the grand scheme of things, if you said, like, all this stuff was going to happen, I would take this as, like, where they are right now. It seems like it's on the good range of, on the good kind of range of outcomes for them,

actually, and I think they're going to be better. And I think the great news is that you look at what Matthew Kuch's been doing, in his first year for them. And he's having just an unbelievable season. Unreal. So good.

The investment they made in him, which was obviously beyond just for this season, they basically have him for all of his prime moving forward. And after this season, I believe, like after Keith Yandel's extension or a buyout comes off the books, they're going to have some flexibility. And Patrick Hornquist's contract expires,

like they're going to be able to actually add to this team. This was going to be always going to be one of those like bridge years for them where they still try to be competitive, but kind of plan for the future. So I think, yeah, I'm actually pretty optimistic about this team, regardless of kind of how shaky it's been through the first 25 games. Yeah, I mean, I think the thing that has really stood out to me watching them is that, you know, they keep giving Sergey Brabowski starts, right? Like, he's been awful this year. And, you know, if you just give him like five fewer starts or something like that, and maybe you don't want to just throw Spencer Knight into the deep end of the cool, so I get that too.

but if you just give Bovrovsky five fewer starts, I feel like this team is comfortably in a playoff spot. And we're not even talking about the Red Wings as, could they make the play? No, because the Panthers would just be kind of running away with it on them a little bit more. But, you know, maybe that's something they figure out down the stretch.

Yes. Yeah, I'm so optimistic. Okay. Montreal Canadians, you're up. All right. They are the second worst team by all situations expected, goals against per 60 since 2007-08. However, it's important to say that all of the bottom six and 13 of the bottom 20 are from

this season. And a bunch of the other ones are from the last two seasons. So this just seems like it's a teams are giving up more chances and expected goals or whatever generally these days than they used to. Well, and I was going to say, like, by the numbers, they're like, as you said, the worst or one of the worst defensive teams we've ever seen in that analytics era. Yeah. But I've watched the Anaheim Ducks play this season. So I.

Correct. Yeah. You cannot. That number in that case does lie a little bit because of a peer that they have. I think ultimately, though, like you look at that game that they played against the Canucks the other night where they are up four and out thing, then they blow the lead, then they come back. They wind up losing seven, six in overtime or whatever. that's like the best possible outcome for this team. Don't you think so?

Like they're going to, they ultimately lose. They're going to wind up with a high draft pick. They're playing incredibly entertaining games, scoring a bunch of goals their young players are producing in Coppil and Suzuki, even if their percentages are inflated. And this is like, if you're going to be in that rebuild phase where you're trying to develop

young players while still looking ahead to the future and getting high draft capital, this is exactly what you want, as opposed to like when it's so big. bleak and you're playing these horrible games or you're like there's no redeemable qualities whatsoever. So it's, I don't think anyone's pretending they're a good team. But in terms of like, what are you going to get from this season? Like, it seems like they're having a pretty good year in terms of what they want to accomplish. Yeah, I mean, if I'm, uh, if I'm the GM, I'm just saying, how do I find a way to trade

these goalies though? You know what I mean? Like, I guess that's the only, like you, you just want the results to be a little bit worse, maybe. Yes. because as you say like they're staying in games and winning or at least getting a point out of a healthy enough percentage of them that you're you know if you're heck they're you know it's a little bit fake but even if you're saying like real 500 they have won 13 games and lost 13 games

so you know I don't I don't know that yeah like you say there's any reason to be upset about how things are going. People thought they were going to be bad and they're bad, but they're bad in a way that is at least going to get people to tune in. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Losing a game in which you score six goals yourself is like the S-K scenario for being a bad team. Yeah.

So, yes. Okay, the New Jersey Devils. So there's 21, 4-1, and that includes losing their first two games in regulation. They're outscoring teams by 39 goals so far, plus 34 at 5-1. on five. They're generating the second most shots. They're surrendering the second fewer shots. Their fourth and most high danger chances created. They're giving up the fewest. Here's a crazy staff. They've held a lead in 51% of their game time so far this season. And in those minutes, they're still crushing teams. Like they have 60% of the expected goals in when they're playing

from ahead, which we know because the score effects generally, you go up, you start playing differently, conservatively sagging back, picking your spots. They're just going full throttle. Like they go up, doesn't matter. They keep playing the way they're playing. That rocks. I believe they've been the most dominant team in the league throughout, but especially in the second period, which is interesting to me,

because it makes sense that like the way they play in terms of the pressure and the speed and their youth would be an advantage with the long change and like pinning teams in their zone and being able to take advantage of that. So that's something I'm monitoring moving forward. And here's one final stat for you. they've had 21 skaters dressed so far this season. None of them are below 52% in shots, chances, or expected goals, and none of them have been outscored at 5-1-5.

It is truly stunning. Like, every one of their players is a net positive in the grand scheme of things. And that just, like, breaks every single possible statistical, like, projection and model for this team. Yeah, for sure. I mean, again, like, even if you're the most, like, even if you were like Jersey, New Jersey Devils 100%

guaranteed to make the playoffs. You would go, okay, what like, you know, what position will they hold in the East? And you're like, they'll be the seventh best team in the Easter conference. Like, even if you were super optimistic about this team, you couldn't in good conscience put them any higher

than like sixth or seventh, right? And yet here they are, you know, very comfortably, the second best team probably in the entire league behind Boston. you know i think i think the the thing with boston versus them is that there's a little more believability in the goaltending with the bruin's and that's the that's the only thing you know no there is and also like yeah but especially with the top players up front like we've seen them

do it in terms of that like historical track record now sure the way this devil's team is playing is just like it's so intoxicating like you just can't like i don't understand how you can hate on it. I guess you can because I post a clip of Jack Hughes, just basically dancing around and playing with his food and embarrassing the opponents. And then I get people replying being like, oh, you just got to play the body. You just got to hit that guy and then see what he does. It's like, all right. Well, I think the other team's trying. They just can't catch him unfortunately. Right. Yeah. You used to hear that a lot about Johnny Godrow in college. Oh, when he gets to the NHL, guys are going to bury him. It's like, they would have to catch him

first. I don't think they're ever. And has he ever been hit hard in the NHL? Have you seen one time where you're like, oh, Johnny Goddrow got rocked there. And he's been in the league for like a decade almost. There were guys you can't hit. Yeah. All right. We're going to take a break here. We're at the halfway mark. We've done eight of the 16 teams. And when we come back, we're going to pick it up from there. You are listening to the Hockeypedio guest streaming on the Sports Night Radio network. All right. We're back with the Eastern Conference Power Hour with Ryan Lambert. Ryan, it's your turn. You got the Islanders. Let's get after it. How about the islanders?

They are third in all situations, save percentage behind only Boston and Winnipeg. You know, again, they got good goaltending last year, and I think you might have said, yeah, but can it last? And the answer is, you know, especially with the departure of Barry Trott, the goaltending genes, you know?

And the answer is, yeah, no problem. We got it. Don't worry about it. Well, I also noted on a recent show, With Barry Trots gone, Lay Lambert takes over. They're playing more aggressively. The defensive environment in front of Ilius Rochin has actually gotten significantly worse. Like they are giving up a ton of shots in the slot.

It's not one of those situations where like, oh, anyone can post a 920 in that environment because of how good they are like, nope. Ilyos Roken has been right up there with Connor Hullabuck as the best goalie in the league this season. And so that's a big part of their success. I think it's legit in the sense that I think Gileas Sarkin's really good and I think he's going to keep posting such numbers. So I think it makes sense for them to kind of rely on them to do so and try to go for broke a bit offensively in terms of cheating for offense and trying to score more and being more aggressive. And so I'm curious to see if that can continue from them because it is like stylistically, it's different from from the way it was the past couple years. And so that's interesting to me. Yeah, for sure.

and you know they definitely have I don't know gone through some ups and downs I guess you would say this where they maybe didn't start out so hot and then they've gotten very hot and then it's kind of more of a

when a couple lose a couple kind of a situation I'm interested to see where it all ends up honestly because you know this is a team that kind of forced you to believe in them over the past three or four years. And then last season they were just like bad, regular old bad,

and maybe you can say it was just the road trip to start the year or whatever. But new coach, they, you know, they seem to have figured it out. And they're, you know, they're scoring a decent amount of goals, not nothing crazy or anything, but like enough. I don't know. They're just an interesting team for me. I'm going to obviously have to keep an eye on how they do what they do. Well, yeah, it's interesting because, as usual, people are so late to pick up on any changes.

It's like, oh, the New York Islanders, you know, Barry Trots, defensive team, boring, blah, blah, blah. It's like, no, if you still think that you have not really watched them this season, like, not that they're great, but they're different. And so I think it's worth noting that. All right, the New York Rangers. I'm honestly not too worried about this team. I guess it's because they're the Rangers and they've certainly had some. shaky results recently. I know they just won their past two games,

including a pretty impressive win in Vegas. Last night, it's like, oh my God, what's going on? This guy's following this and that. Here's some stats for you. There are three, four, and five this season in one goal games, which is 30th in terms of point percentage

in such contests. There were 22, 8, and 6 last year, which was clearly on the high end of performance in those kind of 50-50 toss-ups. There's 16 in Power Play goals per 60. They were fourth last year. And this season you think, all right, well, something's different. No, their second in, expected goals generated on the power play.

They've just been a bail on lucky. I know sometimes they kind of force feed that action of Pernara into Zabinajad, and they're trying to set up that one shot, and it can become kind of easier to defend to sit on that. But as you saw last night, they can still score a ton. They have great personnel there. So I expect them to be better in that regard. And Igor Shostirkin has a 9-13 overall say percentage.

I know that's not all his fault, and we maybe shouldn't expect him to have a 9-35 the way he had last year, but he's probably better than this as well. So I don't know. Am I missing something here? It seems like there's still never going to be an elite five-on-five team, but they're better in pretty much every metric than they were last year. And a lot of the stuff that they dominated with last season, maybe we shouldn't have expected it to continue because it's a bit more volatile or variant, but they're probably better

at it that they've showed so far this year. So if that does improve and they can keep playing this way of five-on-five, I would expect them to be better than they were last year and actually win more games? I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, I think Chisurkin is interesting because he started out playing pretty well. And I looked it up yesterday and over the last like five or six games or something, he's been like an 890 goalie, which is obviously well below what anybody would expect

of him based on the previous two years. So I wonder how much, like, is his, because last year was just like, no. oh, this guy's like 930 every single game all year, basically. Right. Obviously. But, you know, over a long enough trend, like four or five games, every four or five games, he was like 920, 930, 920, 930, you know. And I'm a little interested to see if he bounces a bit more,

bounces around a bit more in terms of, like I said, if he's 890, is he going to be 910 the next five games, 920? Like, nothing would surprise. surprise me, I guess, at this point. And the other thing with them, which I, you know, I spent all summer saying it is like, if you're expecting Chris Kreider to be a 50 goal guy, you are barking up the wrong tree, right? And if that, if that alone is what things out their power play results, I will not be surprised by that. Yeah. Yeah. No, I think that's all reasonable. Like, they were clearly on the high end of things last year in terms of everything went right. Now they're

not having as much. But interestingly, the process itself actually looks better. So, So I don't know, I have some concerns while also feeling more optimistic about them in some ways. It's kind of a weird balancing act between the two. Okay, the senators, you're up. Claude Giroux is scoring as many goals per hour at five on five as Bo Horvette. But in all situations, he's scoring less per hour than Dakota Joshua. I mean, Dakota Joshua almost scored a hat trick last night and got a third goal taken away. like but like you know brett richie is another guy just a small notch above clod jeru in terms of

all situations goal scoring and like i i think it was a little unfair quite frankly for everybody to be like well everything's fixed out we got clod jeru and and alice de brink to come in and de brinket's goal scoring difficulties have been well documented obviously as well um because you know know, we all said like, oh, this is a team that's going to play a lot of four, three games and win X number of them and lose probably slightly fewer than that. And, you know, it hasn't worked out that way, in part because of the two guys that they were like, our offense is fixed now. Just haven't really been delivering so much relative to expectation.

Yeah, I believe they've also, I know, to the one goal game record with the Rangers. I believe they've been, like, horribly unlucky in terms of some of these. close games where they just haven't really been pulling any of them out. That's, that Claudeau's that is amazing. I wonder if that the 5-on-5 goal generation, did he get credit for just one goal on that like slap shot front on the breakaway that he had the other night? Because I would have given him like 10 for that one.

Yeah, that was very cool. Yes. Okay. The Philadelphia Flyers, speaking of Claude Jou. Mm-hmm. So Carter Hart is at a 9-11 save percentage for the season. he stopped 15.1 goals above expected, which only Ilya Sorokin and Connor Hallibuck have been better at.

I mean, if this team was getting average or below average goal tending, I'm like, I'm genuinely worried to think about what things would look like, right? At the start of the year, they're winning a bunch of games. Everyone's like, oh, John Torella has these guys playing hard, putting it all together. And it's like, nope, Carter Hart has just been miraculous. and he's come back down Earth a little bit. I'm not even, like, you can't even blame him for it because he's still such a net positive, but as soon as that came down a little bit, you see the cracks and everything.

I mean, they're 40. They lost 10 games in a row instantly. Yeah. There are 44% expected goals share team at 515, 45, 41% across all situations. Their power play is generating like five and a half goals per 60 on the year, which is just horrifically bad. And then you look at the personnel they've been using on it. And it's like, oh, that checks out.

I totally believe that that's. like a representation of their true talent level. I guess what I would say is I can't decide whether it's amusing or genuinely terrifying that this team was put together under the impression or the vision that they'd be competitive this season. Yeah, that is one of those things where I wonder if the GM like legitimately thought that or was just like, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, we'll get some guys who like throw their body around and stuff like that, knowing that, you know, there was no floor, basically.

Right. I don't know, though. You look at the way they approached the offseason and the moves they made. That, to me, screams a team that thought it would be not a Stanley Cup contender, but like playoff competitive. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, this is just one of those things where you hear all the time, the Flyers

alumni hold this incredible amount of sway over it. They're like, well, if they're not doing fighting and being hard to play against and all that kind of stuff, like, what are we even doing here? We're the Philadelphia Flyers. And so I do wonder, because they did kind of try to pursue guys who would be quote unquote hard to play against, but not actually hard to play against, of course. Right. They did pursue those guys in the summer and they got the coach who was like, whole thing is we're hard to play against. We show up to play every night. but I do wonder if the GM was like yeah I mean I'll get those guys and who cares like they're not it's not gonna like work out yeah I don't know if they're hard to play against but they're certainly hard to watch sure yeah okay Pittsburgh Penguins you're up they are they started out badly you'll many will recall that they had a seven game losing streak not something you typically associate with the Pittsburgh Penguins of the last 15 years um but Since that seven game losing streak, they are 10, 2, and 2 over their last 14 games.

Fourth in all situations, expected goals 4 percentage. Basically, in those 14 games, they're fourth. They have super good offensive numbers. They have, like, solid but not great defensive numbers. And a lot of this winning, honestly, looks like the puck started going in the net, getting Malkins on the ice. It's never been a problem with Crosby. Malkin's been putting up similar underlying numbers all season,

but the puck just was kind of like staying out and not going in. And then Malkin started scoring or Malkin's line or whatever, and you see what happens. They're like a 60% expected goals team. If you want to see regression happen in real time, Casparie Gappen and Tadrick the other night was like the living and body, of that. The three goals he scored were all, it must have been the easiest hat trick ever recorded in the NHL based on what the player actually did. All three of them were him just kind of

standing around the net and then Malkin making a player or something and him just like tapping it in or one of them even bounced off of him and he didn't even intentionally tap it in and he just got three goals. It's like the hats are flying on the ice and kudos to him. But it's like, wow, this is an amazing. He's just collecting them and handing them to Gennie Malkin. Thank you, sir. Yes. Classic. Okay. The Tampa Bay Lightning.

Here's my question, pre. Okay. What's going on with Victor Headman? Yeah, it's crazy, right? The numbers are awful. His defensive metrics are like, are stunningly hideous this season. Yeah.

Now, remember a couple years ago when I believe he won the Norris and he had spent like a good chunk of the season going, I'm playing horribly. Yeah. I wonder if this is him being like, well, I can just play bad. They'll give me the Norris trophy at the end of the year. Well,

years ago, I believe the one you're referencing, he, I think that was the year Adam Fox went. He was a finalist though, for sure. Yes. No, you're right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And he admitted, or no, like it came out that he was like he had missed time. He came back from it. And he was clearly hurt. And he was basically like not playing like Victor Hadman at all. Like he wasn't joining the rush. He wasn't activating at all. He was just sitting back because like his leg was hurt and he couldn't skate. And they won the cup that year anyways. And he was like a shell of himself. He bounced back Yeah, last year, right? It was like a throwback season.

He was fantastic. This year, yeah, it's really weird. Like he's getting outscored in 5-1-5. His expected goal share when he's on the ice and shot share both dip below 50% for the first time and like over a decade for him. I wonder how much of it is pacing themselves in terms of they've played like 71 playoff games over the past three years. And I assume hope to do so again this season to make a long run.

I think part of it is not only was Anthony Sorrelli out for the start of it, and those two guys actually shared guys quite a bit last year in terms of like partnering out forwards and offensemen, but also with McDonaghan, he's played a bunch of minutes with Churnack, and that's something they didn't really do before, and those two have been horrible together. Yeah. And so he's either been in that role or he's been playing with like Ian Cole and Calfoot. Now, back in the day, they used to just like put Jan Rudo with him, and it'll be like,

It doesn't matter who's playing with him because it's Victor Hedman and he's going to make everyone look great. And he's just had a rougher go of it so far this year. I'm not like panicking or anything. He certainly looked bad at times in terms of just getting beaten by speed and like not really looking like himself. But I still keep like waiting for him to flip that switch. But I think that's the main story here for me is like how bad his defensive metrics have been and how he just hasn't been the player that we've come to grow love and appreciate over the years. Yeah.

And I think that's also, because when I was putting together my stats, one of the things that jumped out to me, I didn't have Tampa, obviously, is one of the teams I was talking about. But Andre Vasilevsky has faced the eighth most expected goals against in the league so far this year. And again, like, that's just a thing you would have been like, well, that can't possibly be right, you know, in any other year. But knowing what we know about how Victor Hedman has struggled, like it does make a lot of sense. Yeah. Okay. Oh, for some reason when I assigned these, I gave myself two in a row because I'm up next with the Leafs. I don't know why I did that, but I'll do the Leafs here real quick. So here's a remarkable step for you. In 27 games so far this season, they've already used 12 different defensemen. That's a lot. Morgan Riley is the biggest name and he's missed seven of those games. I would actually say that T.J. Brody is their most important defenseman. And he's only played in 15 contests. He's back now. Back tonight. Yes. Yeah. And that's big. but when I was talking about the Islanders

previously in terms of like how difficult or how much how slow people are to react to like changes with teams and the way they play and what our expectations are for them like this leaves team defensively in terms of their structure and the system and the way they play like they are really good. They're third and team save percentage.

And I know like evolving hockey's model is giving Matt Murray credit for a lot of it. I believe he's up to like 10 goals save above expected in just nine games after that ridiculous. shut out yet against the stars. But when you watch them play, it's very, it reminds me a lot of Carolina in the sense that I'm not buying their expected goals against numbers and how many chances they're giving up because all of their players are like so aggressive in terms of how they're contesting shots

and sticks in lanes and they're just annoying to play against. And I've seen a lot of people being like, oh, like with all these injuries, they clearly need to go out and get at a defenseman. And I just, I could not disagree more. Like I think if anything, this team's problem is offensively. They need to go out and add a left winger, especially one they can play fast in that top six, because I think that's what they're missing if they're going to address anything. Yeah, no, I agree.

They are on obviously like an incredible run right now. I think 12-1 and 4 is what the number is. And it's because they're just not allowing a ton of goals. And they're scoring a decent amount. But like you say, like not only this year of like, oh, they need me. more help on defense, but like, what's been the problem that caused them to lose in the playoffs the last few years? They don't score enough goals, right? Like, if the, if the top line isn't scoring and, like, Tavares just, like, wasn't good last year for a lot of last year, if those

guys aren't scoring, then you're going to lose in the playoffs because you've just invested so much in them that the bottom half of your lineup, but forward group anyway, is in a tough spot. So I wonder if, you know, like you say, with Brody coming back, they have a little bit more wiggle room to be like, no, we're good on defense. We need, we need offense. But I mean, I wonder what the internal goals and vision for that are. Does anyone in the media like actually follow this team? Like a lot of people talk about them on big platforms. They're giving up the third few as goals and they're scoring, I believe they're 20th in goals per 60. Right.

It's like, you still see them talked about as like, oh, this high flying Leaves team that, you know, oh, do they have enough defense though? Like, it's like, what are you talking about? Yeah. They're so good defensively. And I think they're good offensively. Like they have Austin Matthews, Mitch Martin, or John Tiberas. But like, I think they do need a bit more pop, especially on that left wing, which like

that second line wing spot has been a bit of a bugaboo for them. So here's a stat for you. kneelander Matthews, Tavares, and Marner. I'll have 10 goals or more. Nobody else on the team has more than five. So there's your problem, right? Like that's literally, when Callie Yarncroke is your fifth most prolific goal score, you have a problem on your roster.

And it's not the guys on defense. Yes. Okay, let's finish this up. You're up with the capitals, our 16th team. All right. The Washington Capitals are really bad to start the year. But it feels like they're turning things around a little bit. How about this?

Five, two, and one in the last eight. That includes five road games. XGF percentage, 59, the best in the league over those eight games. And here's the other interesting thing. There's seven for 25 on the power play in those eight games, which is obviously going to win you a lot of hockey games. only one of those power play goals are from Alex Ovechkin. So they're finding like maybe it's a thing of Leviolet's found some different looks for them and stuff like that on the power play.

And because, you know, maybe it is getting a little easier to defend Ovechkin standing in that one spot and be your tailing for the puck. Well, and think about all the injuries they've done this through anyways, right? Like, oh, she just came back. Kemper's out now. 150-something man games lost already. Yeah. Orlo have missed a bunch of time. Obviously, Wilson and Baxter haven't played it all yet this season.

Yeah, no, I mean, I don't find them to be a very exciting team. No. But I certainly respect how they've sort of remodeled themselves and what their structure is like right now, right? Like, it seems like you can plug and play a lot. And regardless of who's in there, they can put together these results and they're just going to be really annoying to play against. And yeah, as you mentioned, those recent results speak for themselves

and kind of illustrate that. Yeah. So, you know, I think maybe the, the horse is out of the barn on being like a real playoff team, just because there's so many teams in front of them. But I said it before, I'll say it again. They seem to have oriented their entire organization around getting Alex Ovechkin to the goals record. And they're going to do it. I'm 100% convinced now.

Even like two years ago, I was like, well, there's no way, though. But now I'm pretty, I'm pretty sure. Absolutely. Yeah. No chance he doesn't get. I mean, I guess, you know, health permitting and everything, but based on, based on the trajectory he's on. Yeah, it's pretty clear. All right. R. This was a blast. We did it. We powered through 16 teams in under an hour. I'm proud of us. I'll let you plug some stuff here. Where can people check out the work you do? Yeah, EPRink side. That's a pretty good website. Really good. Yeah, I took a mini vacation at the end of last week. I'm back and, you know, I'm writing, I think, three or four articles this week. And for the foreseeable future, at least until Christmas, I might take a day or three off then too. But other than that, yeah, a lot of going on.

And then Puck Soup is the podcast. Check that out. Check out. Check out the Patreon. All that kind of stuff. I love it. Yeah, definitely go check out EPIRN side. I just put out a big piece on Arasmus Dahlian and an hour sabers. up there.

And yeah, if you enjoy the show today, you can help us out by smashing that five-star button and leaving a nice review. And we'll be back tomorrow, I believe, with another mailbag that close out the week. So looking forward to that, send in those questions if you've got any. And thank you, thank you, Ryan, for taking the time.

Thank you to the listeners for checking us out. And we'll be back more with the HockeyPedio cast on the Sportsnet Radio Network.