The Hockey PDOcast - The logistics, motivation and fit of an Erik Karlsson trade

Episode Date: February 16, 2023

Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic joins Dimitri to discuss Edmonton's reported interest in Erik Karlsson, what that kind of trade would look like, and why it would make a whole lot of sense to pursue.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty.  The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Philipovic. Welcome to the Hockey PEOCast. My name is Dimitri Philpovich. And joining me is my good buddy Daniel Newton Bowman. Daniel, what's going on, man? Just a nice winter day here in Edmonton. So I can't complain.

It's nice to talk to, Dimitri. Yeah, yeah. It's great to have you on, finally able to coordinate having you on the show for the first time after numerous botched attempts, mostly on my end, and just scheduling conflicts. And we're going to do some Eric Carlson wishcasting here.

So sign me up for this conversation. Sounds great. I want to just unpack everything with you, like fully investigate, like the reasons why the oilers should be in on this or potentially shouldn't, logistics, how feasible it is, all of that. I know that once the initial report came out over the weekend,

you were quick to douse it with cold water. And I'm, I'm kind of curious to get into that with you and hopefully, sure. Over the next 50 minutes, I'm going to be able to lure you over to the dark side and really get you to be on my side of this conversation. So let's get right into it. What do you think is the most kind of interesting component of this,

like from the Oilers perspective in terms of the consideration or in terms of like what we should be thinking about when we're considering the topic? Yeah, you know, Dimitri, it's funny because, you know, all these names that I've been hearing all year, you know, Gavricoff and Edmondson and two less than. then Jacob Trickrin, I think we'll probably get into him later. I know the Oilers, you know, have had some interest, but really he's not a guy that they're, from my understanding, they're super interested in.

I never really thought of Eric Carl said. And for the reasons of, you know, the contract, the age, you know, obviously it's having a tremendous year this season. Probably will win the Norris trophy, but the previous two or three, you know, below his standards, I would say. And, you know, when you look at the oilers, the makeup of the Oilers team, you know, they have Evan Bouchard, they have Tyson Barry. The profile of another right shot, obviously they probably have to be one of those guys in a trade for Carlson, but the profile of another kind of strictly or majorly offensive type of right shot defensemen doesn't seem to be their major need. And, you know, so I never really thought of it quite, quite honestly, and I know his name had been out there. really even thought of it then. And then when Chris Johnson put out that report on Friday or Saturday of last week, you know, obviously I have to dig into it a little bit more. You know, I was told earlier

in that week, so we're going on about a week and a half ago now. Do others should not be getting Eric Carlson. They just couldn't make it work with the money. They're obviously really up against the cap. They have to potentially move or wave, yes, and Pooley-Earvey today just to get Cowdy Amamoto, you know, back on the roster from LTIR. And we all know Carlson, again, the contract with the $11.5, the money dollars, it would be very, very difficult to take on. And, you know, I even checked in after Chris's report. And again, it was, you know, my source said, you know, there's some interest. It's possible. But remarkably unlikely with the words or were the words that he used. And, you know, I think the Oilers, again, they do have interest. But it's going to be a heck

of a task for them to be able to fit Carlson in and to be able to find the right kind of matrix in terms of whether it's money retained or assets moved out to get Carlson in. So all that is to say, you know, I never really thought about it. I don't think he would be the typical prototypical kind of defense of the oldest were thought to be bringing in. But, you know, the more I've thought about it over the last couple of days, the more it makes sense for some reasons. And those reasons are Eric Carlson is an elite defensive. There's no two ways about that. You know, maybe like the defensive side to be better. But the fact that he

pushes play so much on the power play and even at five on five, you know, there's the philosophy that the best offense is, the best defense is a good offense, right? So, and the Oilers do struggle despite their, you know, elite power play. and, you know, they're top 10 in the league and 5-1-5 scoring. They struggle to move the puck out of the zone. Who's better in the league than Eric Carls ended up doing that? And you look and you watch, I'm not sure how much you were able to watch the game last night between the Ours and Red Wings, but there were a few times where, you know,

Connor McDavid and Leon Dry Settle were, you know, were gathering speed out of their own zone looking for a breakout pass and were missed. They always iced the puck twice when they had clear-cut, you know, clear possession of the puck. it led to goals in their often suing faceoffs. That's an area that they can improve on. And there's no one and no one better than Eric Carlson who could do that. So to me, again, not a guy that I thought of, but the more I think about it, could work. It's just the money and the assets that they would have to move and to be able to kind of make the trade work that seem to be the biggest kind of hold up for me.

Well, let's take those things one at a time. I'm with you that I didn't initially think about it just because I think as recently as a couple months ago, it would have seemed reasonably unfathomable that Eric also would move anywhere, right? Like it was kind of the contract was so prohibitive in terms of the future commitment. Then regardless of what he did, it would just be like a no go for anyone, especially with like how flat the cap has been and then how tight up against it everyone is. And I think, you know, we should start with as a testament. the type of year and the caliber of play of the level of play he's he's been at from the start that he's reached this point where it's a legitimate discussion right like i think he's going to win the norris i believe and and and justifiably so like if you look he's got

six more five-on-five points than any other skater not just defenseman in the league he's on pace for like 110 points and so i i think we can get into all the minutiae of his game and what he'll bring to the table and i think that is actually a really interesting part of this conversation, right? Because initially, at first blush, a lot of the pushback, I think, is, well, Doylers have enough skill on their team. Like, goal scoring isn't a problem for them. They need better defenders, right? I think that's kind of like the thought process that people have typically chosen or the stance they've taken, and that's why they've been linked to guys like Vladislav Gavikov and Joel Edmondson. But it's interesting, they've also been linked

quite a bit, I think, at various points to John Cleggberg and Shane Gostisbert, right? And obviously, see those guys come with way fewer commitments financially, both in terms of actual dollars and term. But it's interesting that they've been linked to those guys. And if anything, Carlson is just like a significantly superior version of both of them combined. Sure, for sure. Yeah.

And again, the one thing I keep going back to in terms of a con would be the power play. And, you know, with Tyson Barry running the show, the, you know, the power play's been first, third and now first again over the three years. So that's a skill that Eric Carlson would, or a part of the game that Eric Carlson would be a huge asset to it and certainly be a key factor on if he were an oiler. You know, how much better could the power play be? I don't know. We'll see, but it would certainly make things scary in Edmonton.

And then the other factor, as I mentioned Tyson Barry, this guy is beloved. in the dressing room here at Eminton. And there are those in the organization that think he's been their best defenseman this year. For what it's worth, I mean, certainly he is a bottom pairing defenseman at 5-5. And the power play for as, you know, if you want to give him credit at the same time, it's clear that Leon Dry Settle and Connor McDavid really run the show up on that power play. So, you know, you take that with a grain of salt, I suppose. But, you know, it certainly would be upsetting the apple.

card a little bit to have a you know one of Conrad David's good buddies you know probably you know punted off the team to make the money work yeah um but you know at the same time we know that Eric Carlson is a significant upgrade over advertising barrier there's no there's no missing words on that so uh there's like that dichotomy there I guess a little bit as well well well the fact that you say that people in organization think that he might be their best defensive and it's not an completely outrageous statement, I think should be a big check in the favor of we should go out and get Eric Carlson. Yeah, I listen, like, Barry's been, Barry's been better this year. And, and I understand, like, you even heard the, the Elliott Friedman report on one of the

recent podcasts he did with Jeff Merrick, where they were talking about that, right, and how, like, that would be a tricky situation to advocate from a relationship perspective. I think at the end of the day, it seems pretty clear, though in that same report, Elliott Freeman also said how, the top players who I just assumed would be McDavid and Joyce Idol had expressed their desire for the team to add a player who can get them to puck cleanly and make life a bit easier for them in terms of that transition game. And so, you know, as you said, Carlson's is the best option available and possible for that. I think there's an interesting conversation to be had here about the power play is an entirely different thing, right, where they're historically

great. Like, we haven't seen a power play unit since 2007 in the analytics era that's operated more efficiently than they have. And so I don't know how much better they can reasonably be, even if you replaced Barry's minutes with Carlson. I do think there are significant strides to be made at 5-1-5, even offensively. Like, you look, their 10th on the season in goals per 60, a 5-1-5. As you mentioned in the game last night illustrated how there's times where they have opportunities to create even more, and they just don't really have the horses to get the, to get the to fuck up the ice to do so. And so I do really believe that this isn't a matter of all. The Oilers have too much skill or they need to focus on other areas of the ice. I think that guy like Carlson

could make significant improvements for them in terms of 5-1-5 offense. And that shouldn't be overlooked. It's kind of glossed over as like a non-important part of this equation. But I think that's kind of false. Like the numbers or even watching them play don't really indicate that that's based in reality. You can never have enough skill, really. And for as good of an offensive team, team as the Oilers are. 5-1-5, you know, since they've been a playoff team, you know, three years ago or whatever, has been, you know, a sore spot. It's been an issue.

And a lot of that has been the defending at 5-on-5, granted. But, you know, you can never be, as, there's always room to improve, I guess it's a better way to phrase it, you know, from an offensive standpoint. point in. You know, the thing that intrigues me about Carlson is what, you know, we might get into this more later, but like what it could mean to the defense of court. And, you know, a guy like darnel nurse who's, you know, in a first year of a mega contract here and is often aligned by others fans, I think it's been in a position where he's been asked to do too much. And, you know, you put him with Carlson and he could just be the defensive stopper and let Eric Carlson

kind of run the show offensively. It would also allow presumably if he's not in the trade, Cody Cici to drop down. Cody Cici, you know, from his time in Ottawa and Toronto especially had a lot of detractors. His first year in Edmont's last year was quite good. This year has been a bit of a setback, I would say. He and Nurse have been together almost the entire year. And I think C.C., if the numbers kind of bear out, that he's been the guy that's been more of a drain on that pairing. So if you can drop him down, you know, suddenly this defense looks a lot better than, you know, it has. And certainly, you know, to go back to the offensive side of the game, again, there's no question that Eric Carlson would enhance that.

my only kind of concern again is how's this contract to an age but I'll leave that with a caveat that whether it's in their window now and we should kind of forget the last maybe year or two of those four years and the other side is what are they giving up to get him because not only they're they going to have to get rid of almost certainly Tyson Barry and that that's maybe fine because Carlson's an upgrade there they're going to have to give it

a reverse of forwards and we already know that that yes Lee Pooley are these days are numbered here if they have to give rid of, you know, say either Kyler E. M. Motu or Warren Fogel, you know, those guys aren't elite offensive players at 5-on-5, but it does thin the hurt a little bit offensively. And because they're so tight against the cap and been in LTIR all year, their hands are really tied in terms of what they can, what they can do to kind of make this trade work. So I think the real win in this trade, if it does happen, will be, you know, how much money can they get the sharks to retain? And what are they actually? giving up to make this deal happen. Yeah. Well, let's see the logistics, because that, I think that's like an entirely separate conversation for a second. I do want to kind of finish up the idea of what, what kind of impact Carlson could have

on the oilers and how it would look like in terms of like on ice deployment, right? I think that's a really salient point you made there about the impact it could have on the other blue liners who will stick around after a theoretical trade like this, because there is that trickle-down effect. I think part of why so many of these players have struggled is, not necessarily they're bad players, it's that they're being asked to do way too much relative to their respective skill level or talent level or capability, right? And so all of a sudden, you're putting them in positions where they're just taking on way too much of a workload.

And so, of course, it's draining their efficiency and their production and they're looking worse as a result of it. All of a sudden, you add Carlson, it makes life significantly easier for everyone from a workload perspective, right, just pure minutes, but also theoretically who they'll be playing against, what they'll be asked to do. You can really simplify your game. And I think especially for players like CC and Kulak, who have struggled quite a bit this season and were great last postseason. Like they were phenomenal for them. I think there could be significant improvements there in terms of just making life easier for them.

And not only the upgrade you get from having Carlson in your lineup, but then how it makes everyone else better around them, even guys who aren't necessarily playing with him. Yeah, it's your point about said Brett Kulak. I mean, last year in the playoffs, Brett Kulak and Tysonberry were a very respectable third pair. mostly this year they've been the second pair. So, I mean, that is a huge change for them.

You know, they haven't found, you know, over the last, you know, six, eight weeks, Philip Roburts really come in and been a helpful player and been paired with Evan Bouchard. But, you know, last year, Bruce Chard and Doug and Keith were the second pair, at least in the back half of the year. So there's been this, and we talked to them,

you know, mentioned earlier, and you know as well about Cody Cici. You know, there's a lot of, of kind of moving parts that are moving in the wrong direction, right? So to your point, you know, if you, and I kind of illustrated this earlier, I mean, if you can get Carlson in there playing with the nurse and slide everyone down, that changes the whole dynamic of that defense core. You know, I think it would be interesting to see kind of how it would shake out. You know, after that, I would think if you form kind of a veteran pair of, of Kulak and and Sisi, you know, again, we're assuming the Tyson Barry's going in this trade.

And then the third pair would be your two kind of younger, realizing Bouchard and Broberg would play together for a little while and obviously can be sheltered and, you know, allowed to grow kind of in a third pairing role. You know, and there's the, there'd be the mentorship factor. I know the guy Philip Broberg looked up to as a kid in Sweden was Eric Carlson. So I mean, to have him in the same dressing room and then learning from him as a rookie defenseman, I think would be a boon there as well. So yeah, again, I hope I didn't come into this conversation with you, assuming that I was

opposed to this, I really come around. I just, I would say from my understanding, you know, the orders are certainly in. I think everyone knows that. But I would, I think it's about a 10-ish percent chance of them being able to pull it off in the next two weeks. So you're saying there's a chance. Exactly, exactly. So, and that probably makes them.

the front runners, because this is a very tricky deal to make at this time of year. It might be easier kind of at the draft and when money's cleared off of teams' books and they're both to be cleared off teams' books. But there's certainly our benefits. Don't get me wrong to Eric Carlson being an oiler. It's just kind of hard to see. Okay, well, here's a logistical question for you then in terms of what it would look like on the ice.

So I think a big part of Eric Carlson's magic or charm out there is his ability to carry the puck up the ice, especially this year with how healthy he's looked, right, whether with his foot or any issues that he had previously a lower body and how he's able to like maneuver through traffic just so brilliantly and make plays and make people miss and then get the puck up the ice in that way. And I think it's a fair question to wonder, all right, well, you know, you already have literally the best puck transporter we've ever seen in the sport in Connor McDavid. Leandro Seidel, even though he's a bit more methodical, is still fantastic carrying the puck up the ice and being able to sort of, you know, keep it on his hip pocket and always be a passing

option at all times with it. You want, there's only one puck out there, right? When those guys are out there and Carlson would presumably be playing a lot of his minutes with them, you want the puck on their stick, you want them handling and making those decisions and making the plays, right? And so I think it's a fair question of, okay, well, is there some potential redundancy in terms of skill set there? And I'm kind of curious for your take on it because I think there isn't really. Like, I think first off, great players adjust, right? And I think they'll find a way to make it work. but I'm also intrigued by the possibilities of having both those guys in McDavid and Dreytoe freed up to play off the puck a little bit more right like on this team they have

to do so much in the way of getting the puck up the ice that creating like lanes for them especially in McDavid who's just like he's so freakishly good at going from a standstill to max speed and the idea of having Carlson have the puck and then McDavid be able to basically lay low and then just make a call quick cut into open space and get a pass from him and make a play off of that is really alluring to me, right? It's not something you typically think of. You think of McDavid being the one to make the place for everyone. But I think he could actually afford him an interesting luxury that he's never really had in his career with anyone he's really played with. It's, there's a lot to unpack

there. And as you were talking, the thing that kind of stood out and maybe laugh a little bit was, you know, every time the Oilers are down a couple goals and things just, they're just not clicking offensively. There's this moment in a game where Connor McDavid tries to do it himself because he's just like, I got to spark this team. I got to go through three guys. I got to kind of make it play in tight around two defensemen. And he's got a reasonable chance to do it. And sometimes he does because he's Conor McDavid. But it just shows that sometimes this team, you know, doesn't have, you know, obviously they have some guys. But, you know, it's McDavid that that carries Spalca, the other load into less than a extent, Leandericent Lian Dry Cytle. And

you know, whether it's, you know, right in the offensive zone, or of course, you talked about the, you know, the transporting of the puck with McDavid, with whether it's on the power play or even at five-on-five, it's just remarkable. But, you know, it all goes back to kind of what we talked about off the top that, like, who is better at passing, talking and making these breakup passes than Eric Carlson? You know, you think back to the playoffs several years ago when he hit Mike Hoffman in stride and, you know, from that aerial pass, you know, more than that. half the like the ice and can imagine you know with due respect to mike hoffman had that pass

going on coner mc david stick or even leander ice saddle stick rather than than often so um yeah i think there'd be times where mac david still's going to carry the puck up the ice a dry saddle too for that matter and there's times where uh as he saw or as i was talking about in that detroit game last night where they're looking for a nice breakout pass and it's going on their stick this time instead of being iced and and a goal resulting in uh the off the ensuing face off the end up So, you know, from that perspective, you know, you look at Carlson playing with those guys. Tremendous. And then Donald Nars being his sidekick as a defensive guy, as somebody who came into

the league as being a defensive guy and has had to really adapt over the last couple of years with the absence of Oscar Glepom to kind of being more of an offensive guy. I think it's a real win and a good setup for the Soyler's team. Yeah, I imagine it would be much more difficult to defensively track McDavid if he was off the puck sometimes, right? Like it's a bit easier to be like, not that anyone can really shadow him because he's moving so quickly that he's just like in and out of those lanes, right? But it's like if he's starting deep in his own end with the puck every time, it is a bit easier to at least load up layers of defense and be like, all right, we can like, is itable? see where he's coming from as opposed to if he's kind of just circling around without the puck

and then all of a sudden, bam, he's wide open in the middle of the ice and it's like, okay, well, what can you really do at that point? Yeah, I've been easier. Yeah, it's the a little bit there. Yeah, just a little bit, yeah. Well, and, you know, I said the puck carrying for Carlson's been a big opponent of success this year. As you mentioned, sport logic

has him first in stretch pass attempts and fourth in most stretch passes completed this season. And I think part of that has just been born out of necessity where he has to do so much for the sharks similar to what McDavid has to do for the Oilers. So I think there'd be a lot of adaptation there in adjustments, like the creativity, the idea of them in the offensive zone, you know, running these give and goes and little set plays.

And also I think there's an added layer of like think about how much extra sort of room it allows all of these guys to operate with if all of a sudden you're having to split the attention now between even more. Like with all due respect to Tyson, Barry and Dart, I think when Eric Carlson's on the ice as he's shown this season, he requires a certain level of respect and a, attention from the opposing defense, right? I think that's what's been most mind-blowing to me

watching so far, and it really shows that he's fully healthy this season, is when he's carrying the puck up the ice, you're seeing the other team sort of just like sag back because they're afraid of being burned by him. And that's something that they didn't really, weren't really doing as much the past couple years because he wasn't as much of a threat. He's still so like, cerebral and able to slice and dicey with his passing even when he wasn't moving as well. but now that he's added that back to his game, it's really opened up everything. So I don't know, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm really fascinated about the fit here. I do think all of these pieces could work, right? I think that's part, I think that's been part of the pushback. Certainly there's been risk attached to it in terms of the contract, the finances, the term on it. But I think, don't you believe there's a certain segment of either the Oilers fan base or people covering the team or just people around the league that aren't even attached to the team in any capacity. They're like, well, that doesn't make sense. Like, McDavid with Carlson, what's the point of that?

Like, the reason why they're so good is because they always have the puck and they're doing so much for their team. And I just, I refute that. Like, I think these great players will figure out a way to make it work. And that's not an issue for me. Yeah, no, my pushback, for lack of a better term, because I don't know if it's been pushback. It's just always been like, how are they going to make this work in terms of an actual

trade and, you know, the contract. But it would all ultimately depend again on how much. San Josei retains and what the others are giving up. But as a strictly neutral party here, as a journalist covering these games, I'd love to see Eric Carlson. Yeah, and make your job at least here. Yeah, we'll be watching that.

That'd be, you know, I always, I already have the, uh, mury pleasure of watching McDavid every night. A lot of nights, you know, in, in the arena to watch those two together would be, you think would be magical. So, um, no, I, you know,

the Oilers haven't had, a true, but due respect to, you know, Darliners, Oscar Clapbomb, some of these guys. They haven't had a true number one defenseman since Chris Pronger. And what happened when Chris Ranger was on the team? Well, I think what was his fans? Well, they remember the on-ice stuff. Yeah.

We had either the conference, or the, sorry, rather the Stanley Coughbock final, and arguably even in Game 7 loss, he should have been the, the Conspeight trophy winner. And then, of course, there was the exit of Chris Branger. Nonetheless, that was the last time they've had a true number one defenseman, and we're going on, you know, 17 years now. Eric Carlson would undisputably be that.

He would be a very different number one defenseman than Chris Pronger. But that's all right. You kind of need a number one defenseman. And again, like, Donald Nurse would be the sidekick to me and allow Nurse to do the time. types of things that he does better or should be doing better with, with, you know, having a guy like Carlson to do the other things and not have a nurse having to do at all.

So there's, there's a lot of factors to me here that makes sense. And even the contract that the term of the contract is not as onerous because the oil is burned their window now and, you know, drive settles got two years left on a deal with David three. say they in the craziest worst case nightmare scenario for the for oilers and their fans both those guys leave well year four of carlson who cares the team's pretty much in disarray anyway right so we're focused on those two three years um yeah it's it'll be tough to make it work i still think it'll be very tricky in the short term to make it work but if it did i mean that would be a a big win for the one okay well i want to

we'll talk about how they can make work in the logistics of that uh after the the break. We'll take our break here, Danielle, and then when we come back, we'll keep chatting about all that. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O. cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. Big guests and bigger opinions on everything happening in Leifesland. Real Gipper and Born. Be sure to subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we're back here on the Hockey PTO cast talking about a potential Air Carlson Trade and the Oilers interest level in it with Daniel Leigham and Daniel. So the reason why I wanted to spend the first half of the show talking purely about the fit in terms of

what he would look like on the ice is because for all the potential sort of hurdles, they would need to be cleared financially and in terms of making a trade like this work logistically. It's certainly more complicated than a lot of NHL trades we see, especially at the deadline, where they're generally pretty simplified, especially compared to other sports. I will say, though, where there's a will, there's a way. And I think if the Oilers were fully convinced internally that Eric Carlson was like the player they needed and the best possible upgrade they could have, I don't think it would be as nearly as big of an issue as we're making it out to be, right?

I think part of part of the problem for them here is because, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, is that internally they're very divided on whether it's enough of an upgrade to make a move like this. I think that's partially the case. I would also say with due respect to Ken Hall, and I don't know if there's been a lot of moves that he's made, especially in the cap era, that have been very, um, uh, non-traditional. I didn't put it,

put it lightly. You know, I mean, he did as general manager of the Red Wings. Again, this was a draft trade, but to, ironically,

you know, move out Datsuk's money to clear some cap room, give up the first round pick, which ultimately was used on Jacob Chikrin. You know, as the Oilers GM, you know,

he hasn't, other than retaining money in the Luchitz trade, which was a necessary evil to get out from that contract and get a contract in James Neal that could be bought out. I don't believe well, I think there was

one deal, maybe at the deadline last year or the year before where he's got money, you know, retained from another team. You know, we all know about Duncan Keith and not getting money retained from Chicago on that one. I think

I'll be intrigued or glad to be proven wrong, but there hasn't been at least in trades at this point a lot of like creativity or outside the box thinking when it comes to big trades like this. So I think this will test Holland and his management staff's kind of abilities here because I think this trade does need a lot of, you know, creativity to be pulled off.

and, you know, my colleague, Alan Mitchell did a piece on how this could work. And, you know, he was talking about, like, including other teams to take on money, which, you know, we all know is a possibility you can include a third team and, and maybe, like, flipping a player and getting radical Goudis out of Florida. I mean, this is pie in the sky stuff. But it does kind of speak to the creativity that would have to be, you know, kind of put forth here to make this deal work. And, you know, again, I'd be glad to be proven wrong. I haven't seen a lot of that out of Euler-Schmidt management.

Wow. The good thing, he's Pete Hansen way to do that. It is his job, Daniel, to come up with trades like this. I mean, here's the thing. For the motivation perspective, your colleague, Dom Lus Chisholm's current projections in the Pacific Division have as follows, the Golden Knights at 100.5 points, the Seattle Cracken at 100.5 points. The Edmonted Oilers at 100.3 points.

And the Alley Kings at 98.6. Like that's about as tight as you're going to get. And honestly, if the abs aren't ever going to get healthy, which seems like they just might not this season, they're certainly running out of runway to do so. But West is about as wide open as I think you're ever going to see it. I really do think it's not hyperbolic to say that five, certainly, if not six of the best teams in the NHL are in the Eastern Conference right now, as currently situated, before the deadline at least. And so from a motivation perspective, I mean, you know, you mentioned how Drace Heddle is two years left in his deal, McDavid has three, and what happens after that and why the fourth year on Carlson's contract doesn't matter if the next two or three years don't work out anyway. I really don't

understand how your single agenda right now, if you're the Oilers, it can't be to, everything should be based around, does this help us achieve our goal in these next two years, right? And this, this Stanley Cup run and then the two after it. And if it doesn't, then it doesn't matter to us. And I know it's kind of like oversimplifying a little bit because the team will still exist after that regardless of what happens. And like you can't just like, you know, it's not as as as as kind of dried as that. But ultimately, every move needs to be like, does this help us get closer to that goal? And aside from Chikrin, and I don't necessarily want to do a full deep dive of him here. I want to save that for for a later date when he does get traded.

But aside from him, I really don't see how any of these players actually help you meaningfully. get closer to that goal, right? Like I don't understand the logic of how a Gavrikov or an Edmondson or even a Gostis bear helps make such a tangible difference where all of a sudden you go from being in that medley of teams to separating yourself from them. And I'm not saying that adding Carlson all of a sudden assures them a Stanley Cup final appearance out of the West, but it certainly moves a needle much more than any of these other moves. And so when you get back to that motivation perspective of why would the Oilers want to do this, should they be kind of increasing their risk profile here to accomplish a move like this, I can't get my head around the answer to that being no.

I completely agree with you. The West is completely wide open. I said this last year. Certainly there was the difference with Colorado being so elite last year and healthy, which is a big difference. But their division last year was so wide open. And, you know, Vegas didn't even make the playoffs. and L.A. was kind of a team on the rise. And Calgary, I don't want to say came out of nowhere,

but they had missed the playoffs the previous year. So that was a chance for them to really go for it. And I mean, Brett Kulak and Derek Broussard, who didn't play in the playoffs or played one game. I don't know if that was quite what always the chance for expecting. I mean, I think management also looked at getting of Andrew Kane saying, yeah, he was part of our team. And certainly he helped transform that team.

But I completely agree that, You know, if they're not doing it now, when the heck are they going to do it, right? Like, McDavid could get 150 points this year. Leon Dries Seidel is second in the league in scoring, you know. Ryan Eugene Hopkins and Zach Hyman are having career years. These guys are only going to get older. They're only going to get to a point where their contracts have fewer years on them and potentially, especially in the McDavid and Drysidels case,

might not be here. It's time to go for it. Now, in the same, you know, and having said that, well, at first I'll say, I agree with the Gavrikov and the Edmondson and Gosses-Barre kind of, you know, philosophy that you have. I've said this for weeks now. They need to acquire a top board offenseman or else forget about it and just upgrade Ryan Murray as your number seven guy and have against some extra depth.

I think what this stands would choose which path they should go on. My point though is they've been what I've been told is over the last few weeks they've been really trying

to evaluate their defensemen. You know, they have, again, Philip Broberg, who's, in his first true year, he was a, you know,

played some games last year, but getting a real opportunity and they brought up Vincent Dejarnay who's played well games, I believe. Certainly as, you know,

26-year-old, really high-end prospect, but a guy that could penalty kill and whatnot. And they've used a lot of the 11-7 scheme during that time. But they also played, had a really weak schedule during that time. And how much can you really glean out of how well the team had done? You know, up until last night, they were 9-1-2 over those 12 games. So tremendous record, goals against dropping, better play from their goal-tending. You know, go down the list. But, again, the strength of schedule was there. So how much are you really, you know,

looking into that or reading into that? So, you know, I think they still need to upgrade the defense. As we talked about getting that top four guy that can push everyone up, you know, down the lineup would be helpful. The two guys, I've been on the chicken train for all, for basically the whole year because he's been out there for forever. And the contract is so, you know, such a sweetheart deal. and one that theoretically should be able to be moved

a lot of easier than Carlson's. But Carlson fits that boat, you know, as well. The one thing, though, and this kind of, I don't want to say it baffles me, because I understand, but Ken Holland is very much a long-term thinker. And he, you know, he will refuse. They're not completely untouchable, but there's basically no way Dylan Holloway

and Philip Roberg are being traded. Those are their two top prospects that are on the roster. And again, they've been proving I wouldn't want to trade those guys, but certainly those are their most desirable trade assets for other teams. The first round pick, he hasn't traded a first round pick for a rental. I think it goes back to 2001. I'd have to double check that, but it has been a long time. I couldn't see it happening this year.

But again, his mantra has always been, don't trade a first round pick unless it's four guys with term. So if you're not trading those assets, and again, granted that Carlson and Inchequer would have term on their deal, but if you're not training those assets to upgrade the team, you're left with not very much because everyone in Edmonton with $5 million cap hit or higher has either no trade or no move clauses in their contracts. So you're left with not very much on the roster to be able to move out. So, you know, if you're not going to want to get creative or you're not going to want to

move out future assets, it really hamstrings what Holland could do. So, you know, I look at a team like Pittsburgh where their window is we have Sydney Crosby and Future Be Damned. And maybe they've taken that to a bit of an extreme with like basically trading out their first round pick every year or their top prospect. Like their farm system is their prospect pipeline is barren. But you have to admire that in a way. Like, you know, it's a generational player who's still playing very well. And, you know, certainly I think Pittsburgh's on the down slope compared to Edmonton being on the up slope. But they've, they kind of are trying to squeeze every drop out of the sponge. Whereas I don't know if the others have really done that over the last couple of years.

And I don't know if they'll quite do it again at the deadline either. That's, that's, you know, based on how can all of them and management staff has operated? I'm not sure. and I think that is maybe a failing because you only have one Connor McDavid and one Leon Dress settle for so long. Yeah, well, I think the Oilers are an interesting example there because I think it's unfair to compare their current situation to the Oilers, but if you go to the summer of 2015 when they had had a bunch of playoff failures in recent years and we're kind of wondering, all right, well, well, like, where's our franchise headed? we're kind of at this crossroads. They aggressively went out.

They traded what multiple futures for Phil Kessel. He came in, gave them a significant shot in the arm, and they won two cups after that, right? And that's oversimplifying what happened. But I think that would be a much more interesting sort of example or a connection to the situation the lawyers are in right now. And so I will say the addition of Kulak last deadline was massive for them. I love his game and he was fantastic for them in the playoffs.

I'm a bit concerned when you say about like they're using this time to evaluate their defensemen and kind of what goes into that because I'm not sure if it was your reporting or who else is it was, but it seems like part of the reason why they're not fully in on Jacob Chikrin is because they're worried that he's too offensively dependent. And I've gone back and watched every single shift he's taken so far this year in preparation per whatever trade comes down the pike, that's just not on the tape. Like, it's just not true. It's not based in reality.

And so I just don't understand where these evaluations are coming from on defensemen. And that's part of why I brought up like the motivation and how Carlson would fit in everything because I just think like there's such a misrepresentation of what some of these players are and how they would fit on the Oilers. And it seems like everyone's ability to evaluate these players is just not what I'm seeing on the tape from them. Yeah, that is true. That is what I know.

they do not like they're not crazy about Jacob's an expensive game and I don't agree with that I'm with you and I think the contract is so sweet and the age he's 24 it's only getting better health obviously has been a bit of a concern with him and I think they always are concerned about that as well to the best of my knowledge you can maybe correct me if I'm wrong Demetri but I don't think any of the injuries he's had have been chronic

or, you know, there have been some fluke injuries and things like that. I don't know if you, you know, want to discount the possibility of having Jacob Trickren out of your roster because he's been hurt a few times. He's been great this year. Yeah, the asking price, you know, that's another topic is, from what I understand, it's been huge. You know, I reported this last, earlier this year. I know at the deadline, for instance, say Arizona wanted Alex Newhook, Bullwood Byron, and a first-trump pick for Jacob Tricker.

And that's a big ask. But that is different than not being crazy about his defensive game or thinking that he's the right or wrong fit for the roster. And, you know, I've been, again, been on talking about Jacob Chicken forever because, you know, there's the left side of the defense too where it's still the same same, you know, example where he'd be right behind Darnel Nurse, pushing Darnel Nurse for minutes, taking a little bit of the defense too, taking a little bit of the same, you know, example where he'd be right behind Darnall Nurse, pushing Darno Nurse for minutes, taking a little bit of the, of the responsibility and then, you know, workload off of Darnal Nurse's shoulders, you know, you'd be probably pushing Brett Kulak down to the third pair. And when it comes to Philip Broberg, you know, he, up until coming over to North America, his whole career as a minor hockey player, as a pro in Sweden, was playing the right side. And he's done it a little bit in the minors end.

And last year, you know, paired for a few games with Duncan Keek, he was on the right side. So I think they trust them or they should be able to trust them. enough and then that role to play a third pairing role if they had to, you know, if he wasn't part of that trade and they kept him on the roster. So there are, there are ways to kind of get around that. But again, to me, it's Carlson Chikrin, some other topboard defensemen that we don't know about or aren't thinking about or don't bother. I mean, the one thing that that does kind of, you know, is okay with me as long as the asking price isn't outlandish with Gambricoff is he's a rental and that way it doesn't you know screw up broberg's um you know development

and path or things of that nature you can cut your losses after the year if it's not great but you know I don't want to be tied there if I were the oil others I would want to be tied to you know multiple years of Joel emminson who's had injuries or um a player like that i forget there's if there's another defenseman out there with term but that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me it's You get a guy that is good or great that can really significantly upgrade the defense or just don't bother and find a little extra depth in case their injuries. Yeah, when I saw what you said about their opinions of Chikrin's game, I just, I was about as flabbergasted as it gets, right? Like it's just like it just couldn't be further from the truth from what I see. But yeah, I mean, he would make a lot of sense.

But you're worried about the acquisition cost and trading futures. I understand it's different for a younger player who it's easier to facilitate the contract. And you know, you got two more years of him at a really great age and it fits when in with, right, it expires at the same time as dry siddle's contract. Like a lot of that makes sense. But I don't know. I, you know, to ties up a bow on the Carlson conversation. So it seems like the Oilers would need to get his cap hit down to 7.5 million or so in that range, right? Well, Elliot Friedman recorded kind of 6.5 to 7.

You know, I haven't really run the numbers that well. you know, Tyson Barry is at four and a half. So even at that number, you'd be getting another, probably rid of another forward. They are interested, I will say, to get rid of Warren Fogel, I think. I mean, there's been times for he's played well, but he's got another year at $2.75, rather a million dollars on the cap.

So for all the angst and talk about yes, he Puli are being traded or waived or off this roster soon, you know, it makes a lot of sense just strictly for the fact that he needed to clear their cap room and that, you know, at this point at $3 million, quite frankly, they're not going, they wouldn't qualify him in the summer. And he's a year away from UFA. So, you know, yes, if we are, we might go and have a great career somewhere else. He might go to Finland.

We don't know. You know, would you like to kind of get more out of them and try them for longer? Yeah, but unfortunately, the ship has just sailed here in Edmonton. So we kind of have to cut your losses there. But with Warren Fogel, there's the intrigue, again, moving him out because he's got another year on his deal. So if you can move Barry and Fogel, you know, just simple. math you're at what the draft kind of that number yeah so um but then of course what interest will the sharks have in those two players that's a rebuilding team so you're adding sweeteners you obviously

need to give rid of uh you know give up prospects a high uh you know draft picks as well you know at what yeah well why why not but that's what that's what that's not right like that's not Yeah, but it for me. I think if you can get Carlson down to 7.5 and all you're subtracting from your roster is Barry and let's say Fogel, but even Yamamoto, honestly, and you're just trading futures prospects. If you don't want to trade Broberg and Holloway, all right, that's fine. I'd be okay trading Broberg personally, but, you know, if it's Borgo, if it's other assets, all of that is fine with me because at least with Broberg and Holloway, you can talk yourself into them fitting this timeline in the sense that they're already on the

team and we've seen them play in the NHL. So contributing on an ELC or on a very team friendly cap figure next year or the year after is in play, right? Like some of these other prospects or picks or firsts. Oh, God, yeah. The 2023 first will not play on the Edmonton Oilers until like 2028. That's the best. No, but I mean, like realistically, if the pick is in the 20s, that player will not be in the NHL for at least two, three, four years. And at that point, they'll probably be a four finer being eased in by an NHL coach. It doesn't really trust them fully, right? And it's like, all right, what are we doing here? How is that player help what you're trying to accomplish? So for me, as long as you can get Carlson down to 7.5, I don't care what the future asking

price is, really. And getting it down to 7.5, I think actually is not that difficult, right? It takes 20% from San Jose, which is 2.7 million, which, by the way, is less than they're already retaining on Brent Burns, who they just gave away for free. And 15% from another team, like, I don't know, the Chicago Blackhawks who have done this. before. And the thing I keep coming back, except for Duncan Keith. Well, yeah, but, but they facilitated trades helping, um, helping make stuff happen. And here's the thing for me. So the part of the issue here is the four years that are left after this season in the sense that if you're retaining money, it's quite a commitment from a timeline perspective to say four years from now, we will still be

paying between one and three million dollars for a player that's on our team. If you're the Blackhawks or the sharks though. Looking at their rosters right now, they don't have a single player on their team that's like a young player who in that timeline will be due for a huge raise. Now, if either of them wins the Connor Bedard lottery, that fourth year will be like the first year of Badard's second deal. And so at that point, you will want to be competitive and wasting money on a player who's not on your team is an ideal. But ultimately, what's the cap going to be like in 2027 or whatever? I don't, I really don't think it's nearly as big of an option. Clearly it takes ownership signing off and paying for it.

But if it comes with future assets and picks and prospects, which is what both these teams desperately need to be trying to do, I really think the fit is much more logical from a logistical perspective than it's being made out to be acknowledging what you said that this isn't necessarily in Kent Holland's M.O. where we don't have a historical track record to point to suggest that he's capable of a deal like this. but I think if you or I were concocting a trade like this, it's pretty doable.

Yeah, there are two things there. I guess, firstly, quite frankly, I don't know what prospects of the San Jose sharks are coveting or would be coveting. Excuse me, I think they, you know, you'd probably want Roberg or Holloway over lesser prospects that are in junior, like you, Reed Shafe or in the miners that can considerate or go. So again, those two guys, hallway broverers essentially is as close-go-intouchables

you can possibly get for the Oilers. Now is that a deal breaker? I don't know. But if I'm the sharks, I'm going for the best prospects, naturally. The other thing is, as you mentioned, like the four years, that's a big, and I granted you take your point on Brent Burns that I didn't consider. But to the same point, then they'd be, you know, tied up for two guys.

long term like that's a lot for an ownership to you know an owner paying however many million dollars for two guys that are playing somewhere else that's that's that's doesn't look great for not only general manager but just it's a tough pill spill rather to swallow for an owner but at the same time we everyone knows that Carlson is not being moved without some salary retention like it's it's it's basically a foreground conclusion here so I mean the other the other factor here is it's that third team and to your point like you know Chicago whether it's or any team Columbus or Arizona you know these teams kind of at the bottom of the standings I don't know

necessarily Columbus's cap situation but the other two certainly need to put money on their books that's one thing but four years that's that's the biggest kind of obstacle for me if you're another team taking on you know a trade that you're really not much of a part of for four years again And it would kind of depend how much and all those types of things. If I'm the owners, I'm trying to get a third team in to lower that money as much as possible. Obviously, depending on the asking price of what that team would want. But it is, it is, there are some logistical concerns. Yeah.

You want to make it kind of tricky. But I'm for it. You know, I get it. I just, yeah, I just wanted to push back on the idea that this is too risky, right? It's like too risky compared to what alternative. The status quo, like I think that's riskier, in my opinion. I think some ambition is not bad for anyone involved. I think that HL could use a lot more of it.

So Daniel, we've got to get out of here. I'll give you quickly a chance here to just let the listeners know where they can check you out on the way out. Yeah, you can find me on Twitter at DNB Sports, so the initials on my last name and sports, because I made that Twitter handle many, many years ago when I was still in university. And, of course, at the Athletic.

In non-trade news, I have a really nice piece coming out tomorrow about Ben Stelter, who I think, and his name kind of speaks for itself or needs a little introduction for whether his toilet fans or those in the hockey world, had a chance to talk to a lot of people that were close to him, and it should be a nice read that will take your mind off trades for a day. Okay. Well, Daniel, this is a blast.

I'm glad we were finally able to get you on the show. Looking forward to having you back on in the future. And thank you to all the listeners for listening to the HockeyPedocast, as always, streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.