The Hockey PDOcast - The MVP Race, and the future of player contracts

Episode Date: February 2, 2023

Ryan Lambert joins Dimitri to talk about the MVP race, the players that could challenge Connor McDavid at the top, and future changes to the way contracts are handed out in the NHL This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty.  The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey-Pedio-Cast. My name is Dimitra Filippovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Ryan Lambert. Ryan, what's going on, man? Hang it in there. Yes, you are.

We all are. It's nice because on the one hand, the NHL regular season is such a grind, right? Like, 82 games is clearly way too many. And it feels like every single night, it's just relentless. And I don't mean to make that sound as complaining because like I think we both love our job and it's awesome that we just get to watch hockey every day. But it doesn't give you really like a chance to take a breather or like, you know,

take a step back and reflect and look around the league and kind of figure out what's going on or recalibrate at all because it's just like, all right, you finish a night of games and then the next morning you have a bit of downtime. And then all of a sudden there's another six games on the schedule. And so at least this week has I think provided us with a nice little chance to just like you know, take a beat and just relax a little bit. Yeah, for sure. It's, you know, it's the classic NHL thing where they're like,

oh, there's only going to be like two or three games on the last couple of nights. Oh, really? What time do they start? Exactly the same time. You cannot watch them both. So good. Yeah. It rocks.

Love that. Okay. So we're going to talk about a variety of topics today. We're talking about the MVP race. We're going to talk about player contracts, broadcast, viewership, all that good stuff. So let's start with the MEP race. You wrote about this recently.

Yes. You wrote about the field. And I kind of feel silly, you know, setting up with the description of it being a race because I think that implies that the number one spot is in question or in play. And I think it's almost all but cinched up, I'd say. I think you can nitpick a little bit, but ultimately I think Connor McDiard David is going to win this award. But let's go through the candidates, the thinking, the logic, maybe who could work

their way up or down the list, and whether anyone could actually challenge McDavid in the final 30 games or whatever we have left. Yeah, I said this on Puck Soup yesterday, but I feel like at this point, if McDavid, like, you know, they said, oh, he's having season-ending surgery this week, he'd still get, like, a bunch of third place votes. That's how sewn up this is for him. him, I think. And deservedly so.

He's been unbelievable. I don't know what to, he's going to score almost, well, he's on pace for almost 70 goals and like 152 points, something like that. It's ridiculous. We've just never, you know, in the cap here, we've never seen anything like close to this. Yeah, I do like that he just decided that he was going to also score the most goals. Yeah.

season, right? Like it wasn't something that he necessarily had had in his bag in the past. Like he was kind of living around that 40 goal range. I think he scored 44 last year in 80 games, which was his previous career high. And he's already about to match that 50 games into the season. Here's a fun stat for you. The number of games that he has at least one point in, 45 out of the 50 he's played. And only one of those has come since November 24. And it was like, it was like a new year's, It was like a late New Year's Eve game, like the final game before we flipped over to 2023 against Connor Hellebuck, and he had a bunch of chances in it as well. So, yeah, it's pretty wild what he's doing.

It's, we've really become desensitized to it, I think, collectively. It's like, oh, ho-ha, Marie scores a cool goal. And it's like, all right, well, that was the 78th best goal. We've seen him score in the past five years. Like, it's, he really is at this point. only challenging himself, it feels like, on an individual level, where it's like, he's just trying to one up his previous accomplishments or previous production or previous highs of how cool a play is.

It's him. And then it's kind of everyone else in that regard. Yeah. Again, like it's like you said, the fact that he just decided, oh, I'm going to like walk away with the Rocket Rashard this year. It reminds you of when Sidney Crosby, everybody was like, oh, you know, he can't, he can't make a fake. Like, he can't win a face off.

And then the next year he's like the third best base off guy in the world. And then, oh, well, you know, he's more of a playmaker. He doesn't score a lot himself. And then next year he wins the Rock of Richard. I think he had at least 150 goals season after everybody just decided this is the thing we're mad at Sidney Crosby about. He doesn't score goals or whatever. He's like, oh, I can score goals. That's not a problem.

Thank you. And so it's the same thing with McDavid, right? Oh, you know, you can't. And you can't. play a full 200-foot game or whatever. And not only is he scoring a bunch of goals, but like in the past month or so, his underlying numbers have dramatically improved.

They were kind of iffy for a while there, despite all the scoring, they were doing a lot on the power play. But in the last month, like his numbers have shot up. I think he's running around like 58% expected goals now, something like that. Yeah, he's 57% expected goals share over the year.

60% high danger chance share at 515. I guess I was going to say the only real potential nitpick when you're just like trying to make any case against him, which I'm not because he is pretty clearly number one. But if he were to do so, it's like, all right, well, they're only up 44 to 40 with him on the ice of 515. They're kind of scraping by in that regard. He's tied for fifth and five on five points.

It's funny, like, oh, only fifth in the league. But it shows that, you know how much the production has come on the power plan for some reason that has been turned into a negative right it's like kind of like these derisively like oh there's a power play merchant oh that's all that's all they can do all they can score on as if it doesn't count as the exact same number of goals as as a regular why i i don't know like should that be viewed as any sort of knock against them from like a statistical case because it feels like that would pretty much be the only thing you could hold on to now that the oilers seem like they're locked into a playoff spot right last time i think

we spoke they were kind of on the precipice around 50% probability where like all right if this goes south like that could impact him now that they're winning a bunch of games and and kind of up there in the standings it feels like this is like really the last ditch effort that you can kind of hold on to right yeah i think um you know if it's a case where two guys have 110 points and one has 15 more on the power play maybe maybe you give a little little bit you give a little more consideration to the guy who had more five on five points. But he's, you know,

he's like I said, going to finish, number one in the scoring, the goal scoring and total points race by a decent margin, it looks like. And at that point, it's like, oh,

well, you know, this thing I would, I would normally use as a tie breaker. Like, I can't even break that out. There's just no discussion. He has 46 power play points in 200 minutes.

So that's 13. 5 points per hour. here's some perspective on that. 46 points on the power play, right? You know who has 46 all situations points of this season? Sebastian Ajo, Rupert Hintz, Nico Hishir, Brad Marchand, and countless others that have even less than that. All-star level guys.

Yes. He just, in this one specific state of the game, is as productive as guys who are legitimate superstars in every situation. It's, it's, it is a cheek. code, right? Like him and Leon together with that much space in the offensive zone, it really feels like watching these power plays. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

Like, it's just a matter of time before they finally score a goal. And so, yeah, I don't view that as a knock against it because they all count the same. And that's clearly like a thing that they repeatedly do time and time again. Yeah, no. It does kind of, I think I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. And so maybe the numbers are a little bit different. But at the time I wrote this article being like, oh, the Oilers, like you said, might be on the precipice here. It was a situation where their power play percentage was higher than like the, the Canadians teams that made the league change the power play rules.

Yeah. Right? And it's like, well, I don't know that you can do better than that. Yeah. Yeah. It's, it's really stunning to just look at the numbers that way. So, okay. Well, the Oilers are two points back of Vegas.

with a game in hand on them. The three points back of LA, but they have three games in hand on them coming out of the All-Star break. Do you think that moving forward for these final 30 or so games of the regular season, we should be viewing the Oilers as,

like the betting favor to finish first in the Pacific? I think so. I would have said Vegas, even with, you know, their goaltending situation, and then everybody got hurt. Eichael missed a handful of games, and it seems like Mark Stone's probably out. Well, they say indefinitely, I don't know, obviously they're saying also.

We don't know exactly what it means, but he's going to be out for a long time. And that alone, plus all the other injury problems that Vegas tends to run into, I guess. That alone makes me think they're going to finish ahead of Vegas. And then with the Kings, it's like, do you trust the goaltending at all? not me. I'm not a big Phoenix Copley guy, you know. So like if the Kings make a trade or two, I think it becomes more of an open question. But right now, I feel like, yeah, this is the Oilers Division to Lute.

Like they would have to blow it a little bit, frankly. Yeah. I would love to see another Oilers Kings playoff series. The one last year was really fun and the regular season games they've played this year have kind of carried over in that regard. So I would like to see that. But yeah, I mean, for the King's goalies, Ryan, evolving hockey has the three goalies that they've used this year, Copley, Quick, and Cal Peterson at negative 24 goals able to have expected combined.

And I believe that's not even very accurate. Like, I've seen some of the private models. I don't know if it's like Spore Logic or what I saw, had them in like the minus 40 range at some point, like last week. like it's really bad. I mean, I think they've clearly taken a bit of a step back

defensively from last year and improved offensively, and I think that's totally fine. But really, the goaltending has been, some of the goals are giving up are just not nearly good enough. And I'm really curious

to see what their plan is, right? We've heard some speculation about that or Demko potentially. I think, would you, if you were running the Kings at this point, kind of taking a look around,

all right, Mark Stone might miss the rest of regular season. So Vegas might, my draw. off. Loyalers, we know what they are. The flames, we keep waiting for them to turn it on, but it's 50 plus games now and

it hasn't really happened. This might just be who they are for the rest of the season. If you're the Kings, like, I understand that they were at one point they were leading the Pacific with a negative goal differential, which is comical. But at the same time, you have to be looking around and being like, all right, this is pretty, this is pretty attainable for us here. I think we can make some noise. I know we want to be patient and have this great prospect pool and the few.

future looks bright for us. But I mean, we brought in Kevin Fiala this season. I think, you know, we still have Dowdy and Copa to our playing at high levels. I think it makes sense to kind of go for this season and see what you can, what you can accomplish. Yeah. And especially just because, you know, like they're this good with a negative eight or 10 or whatever it is, goal difference, right? Like, they're this high in the standings despite that. And so the idea that if you go out and get like a goal, who's actually like vaguely competent. You know, whether it's Thatcher Demko or whatever else. I don't think, I wonder how much Thatcher Demko would cost, honestly,

just because, you know, he's coming off surgeries and they're delaying his return and all this. Like, who knows how bad that injury is and what he is after that injury. And he wasn't good before it. So, you know, but yeah, if the Kings can get it like a legitimate goalie and, you know, get them to take Jonathan Quicks remaining three months on the books or whatever it is. Like I say go for it. You know, like how many, at this point, how many prospects do you really need to hang on to that you're like, oh, I couldn't live without this guy, you know?

Yeah. In addition to all the other guys who were like right there, I don't know that they have a ton of them. Well, the thing, Demko is really interesting because like he was really, really good for a couple of years. and then his numbers are really bad this year even before he got hurt. I watched a lot of those Canucks games. The situation in front of him was highly bleak. And so I really understand he could have been better

and maybe part of it was his fault, but ultimately like the number of horrible two-on-ones and defensive zone breakouts in front of him were a big part of the numbers. Now, I think ideally you'd like to see him come back and have a bit of a runaway to actually prove that he's healthy and in top form before you make any type of deal like that,

especially since he has three years left of term on his deal after this one. Right. The noise that I'm hearing around Demko, not that I'm an insider by any means, is hilarious from both sides, though, right? Because, like, I'm hearing a lot of, like, I'm worried about Demko holding up physically. Like, I don't think this injury is a fluke. I think, you know, he's not a great bet to be a 50-plus game starter for the rest of his career.

And then I'm hearing, like, Thatcher Demko just really just wants to go play elsewhere. and obviously I've heard the latter for sure yeah yeah but it's a lot of rumblings and at some point it's like all right well there's probably something to this if you're hearing it from like seven different people so yeah but yeah I mean

it's a very highly like high upside intriguing bet but the problem with him with Vamelka with any goalie they'd bring in is what's your level of confidence that over 30 games they're actually going to be better than what you've already got and I guess it's their goal done

has been so bad that it would be tough for it not to be at least slightly better. Right. But Beenix Copley over like 20 random games, I guess, could conceivably outperform even a goalie that's significantly better than I'm in true talent because that's just how the position works. You know, so it's a, it's a risky thing to be like, all right, we're going to push her chips in for 20 games of better goaltending because unless it's Laselowski or Sorokin, you might not even get better goaltending. Yeah.

At least with Demko, you're like, it's 20 games of better goaltending plus three. other seasons up. You know, and you're not, because like, the Peterson thing is untenable. The quick contract is obviously up this year. Copley is supposed to be a, like, duct tape on a, on a problem,

you know, as opposed to like any sort of a long-term solution. So, and I guess the other thing to say is we're kind of around it on the Dempco thing. It's like, his value is never going to be lower on the trade market. So in theory, you could get

a guy who a couple years ago people were like oh maybe maybe this guy's a Vesna guy you know and I don't think he ended up getting a ton of votes or whatever but he was in that conversation and so the idea that you would

kind of gamble on that versus what you know it isn't working with Peterson and Quick and Copley like again given where they are in the standings and that kind of thing I think it makes sense.

Yeah, $5 million cap it for basically the rest of his 20s for the next three years is if he's going to be what he was previously is great. I guess it's a matter of like what the acquisition cost is and if the value is dropped low enough to mitigate whatever like risk you're taking on with the contract itself. But okay, here's a question I have for you. And this probably, I mean, this almost certainly wouldn't be a fix for them for the rest of this season. I'm just curious for your take as an NCAA guy.

What's your, uh, what's your mileage on? Eric Portillo. He's, it's, this is always such a tricky thing because like you can play behind, I guess, I guess the best way for me to say it is, I've seen a lot of guys who are like perfectly well regarded, uh, goal tending prospects who happen to play behind insanely good teams and who didn't really work out at the NHL level. Yeah. And obviously Michigan is like a really, really good team has been for most of Portillo's career.

I think he's a good goalie. But like do I think he's like a solution for the Kings? You know, probably not. This feels to me like a guy who maybe needs a year or two in the H.L first, you know. And he's frankly, not even having that good of a season. Like, he was really good last season. But this year he's kind of like, well, I mean,

we don't really have expected goals numbers in NCAA hockey, but he's a 9-09 goalie behind a team that, you know, obviously had to take a bit of a step back just because of everybody they lost over the summer. But, like, there's still a bunch of really good guys on Michigan, and, you know, Portillo hasn't been, like, world beating. been serviceable. So I don't know.

It's tough to judge. Yeah. When you were talking about NCAA goalies making the leap, I was like, I wonder what Matt O'Connor is up to these days. Yeah. I'm old enough to remember the Matt O'Connor sweepstakes, which is. Oh, yeah, no, for sure. He's still playing in Slovakia.

Look at him go. So good for him. Is he really good for him? Yeah. No, he, I mean. But yeah, if you look up his numbers at BU, he had like a couple of 920 seasons. And, you know, again, like those, well, maybe not the first year of his college career, but certainly the second two, like, those BU teams were, like, pretty good.

Yeah. And obviously one went to the national championship game. Don't look up what Matt O'Connor did in that one. But, like, that sweepstakes was based on, you know, he plays on the Jack Eichel team, you know. And I say this, this is the most amazing stat of all. time to me is how easy was it for BU that year when Jack Eagel was their number one penalty killing center and when he was on the ice on the penalty kill B.U outscored the competition like six to four or something like that or eight to six.

Wow. This is why you're, this is why you're an NCAA correspondent here in the PDOCIS. Yeah, but like that, I'm just saying that was the environment in which Matt O'Connor was. really thriving. And to a similar extent, was that the environment in which Eric Portillo thrived last year? And then Michigan, maybe it, well, definitely isn't as good as they were last year. And now he's not as good as he was last year. Kind of a chicken and an egg thing, I guess. But yeah. Yeah. I think the answer to this is the Kings really should just go ham and just get Chikrin and Bamalca in a big package. I love Bamalca. Oh, my God. I think he's so, I think he a chance to be really, really good if, you know, his team isn't the Arizona coyotes.

Yeah, and he's also, he's, he's the perfect middle ground for this, right? Where he's the same age as Demko, but two years left at $2.725 million. So you really provide yourself with some insurance in case it's a batter of he's really good in this like horrible situation where he's facing a ton of shots and then he comes to a better team and he turns out to be a disappointment if that happened. And I'm not saying I think it would. But if it did, at least you're not like, all right, we're still. with him for three more years at five million.

It's, it's an interesting gamble that I think would make sense of them. Okay. Wow, we really got sidetracked from the MVP race, although you could make the case for a Krellel to throw the Melka. So I guess the question then, if we agree that McDavid is a lock at one, what's going on beneath him in terms of,

especially getting onto the finalists list of second and third place? I think that's where the jockeying for position in the final third place. games is really going to get interesting. So I don't know if I would necessarily have him second, but I definitely couldn't leave him out of my top three is David Pastor Dan. I mean, what he's doing with the Bruins this year is truly remarkable. And obviously, he has a lot of help. There are a lot of good players on the Bruins.

But the idea that this guy who's running away with the team's scum, scoring like, you know, basically doing a mini Connor McDavid to his own team where he is just like so far ahead and goals and points than everybody else on what could end up being one of the four or five best regular season teams ever, right? So I think if you want to say he's not two because of how good the rest of the Bruins are, I still don't understand how you say he's not three. Yeah, I mean, he's 60 goals. goals and 120 points are both in play for him.

You mentioned the Bruins being as one of the four, five, I see. I mean, like, they might get 130 points this season. Yeah. I think the comp is kind of what Kuchrov did in 2018, 19, right? Where everyone sort of agreed that he's not the most valuable in the sense that there's other players, I don't know, I've got him or gave it at the time as well, that are doing more with less or doing an equivalent with less, but the sheer, so, he'll take. of his offensive production

and also the willingness of voters to recognize the team success that he was helping drive like made him the MVP and got him all every single award that season. Now the funny thing is is like Kutrave at 128 points that season and it was in a wildly different

offensive environment than this year, right? So like when I say pastoral act could have 120 points. It's like all right, well there's like four other guys that if they finish strong might also get there. It's just maybe. with the benefit of hindsight, I understand that their season ended incredibly

shockingly getting swept by Columbus that season, but man, that regular season, what Kutrov did that year, like is holding up even better with each year the passes, I think. Yeah, no, that was a classic case of, well, you know what,

he broke the cap of your scoring record. I guess you got to give him the trophy more than anything else. But yeah, obviously, Pastor Nack, I guess you could go absolutely insane down the stretch and get up around 130 points like Kudraub did. But yeah, like I say, I just think that given how good the ruins are and how much of the

offense past or not is driven, like you just, you do have to hand it to him in this particular case. Yeah, yeah. I mean, everything they do runs through him. And also his usage is up pretty significantly too, right? Like he plays the most out of any of those forwards now, which I think might surprise some people. So yeah, I have him third on my list because I just think what Jack Hughes has done,

especially over the past like six weeks is just undeniable. And I also think that it's a good sign of what's to come as well. Like not that I think he's going to take it up even another level in the second half of the year. But I think like he's just going to keep going. Like when you watch a play, it's like, all right, this is this isn't like what he's going to be. Like this is like a sign of things to come. And it's so I think like what he's accomplished. especially recently is is good enough to have them like pretty firmly in second place for me at

the moment acknowledging that pasturnack could score a million goals and and the Bruins could have 130 points and then I have to revisit that yeah I think when I wrote this article I'm like 95 sure that you're you said the same top three as me and and like I said I'm not I'm not willing to commit right now to Pasternak or Hughes to vert two versus three or whatever like Either one is a totally reasonable argument to me. And especially because, again, like, nobody really expected the, the devils to be any good this year. You know, maybe a fringe playoff team, I think, was a lot of people's thought,

and they're locked in now, you know? So that is definitely, like, again, you're just going to tip your cap to the guy, like he's having an unreal season and deserves to be, you know, definitely. Like, there isn't a voter who shouldn't have him on his, on their ballot. As much as, as much as you want to say, there are, like, five or six other guys who deserve consideration. And this year, there are. There definitely are, like, you could make a case for Elias Serocha, Conner, Conner, Halebuck, Jason Robertson, like, go down the list.

Nikita Kutra, is another one, right? He's having an unreal year. And so, like, you can go down the list and say, oh, there, you know, there are, like, eight guys that I want to put in my top five. But I can't, again, I just can't imagine putting together a top five and leaving out McDavid, any one of McDavid Hughes or Costa. Yeah. I mean, so the thing that's startling for me about Hughes, and I believe he leads the league in goals above replacement on evolving hockey, but 15 goals in his last 14 games, 26 in his last

29. And the thing is, is like, if you look at every individual sort of like scoring chance, chance opportunity-based stat, whether it's shots where he's fourth, shot attempts, sixth, Russ Chan's second, slot shots, eight. I didn't see him, like, similar to what we said about David, taking matters into his own hands to this degree, right? Like, the playmaking is there, and I think they've left a lot on the table in terms of him passing to Eric Hall and Eracalla missing lawyers opportunities.

I think he could have even more assists, and we can talk about more of that second. But I didn't see this like, all right, I'm just going to take the puck, go coast to coast, and score myself with the frequency he's been doing. And I think that's what's been most amazing about it. Like the fact that he's going to score 55 goals or something this season is as high as I was heading into the season, I didn't see as a range of outcomes for him this early in his career. Yeah, again, it does kind of just feel like that Sidney Crosby thing I was talking about earlier where he's like, no, this season I'm going to go insane. I'm just going to have the best season that I could possibly have. And, you know, the whole league's just going to have to deal with it, basically.

And like you say, basically every underlying stat, individual stat, he looks great in his, you know, like you said, evolving hockey. He is 20.3 goals about replacement that says here. And, you know, what else can you say about the guy? He's been absolutely fantastic in the offensive zone and pretty good in the defensive zone. So there's nothing you can really say about it. Oh, here's what you can say about him. He's reached the rarefied error for me where he's good enough now this early in his career where like the devil should be serious about taking advantage and trying to win a Stanley Cup right away.

Totally. It's not one of those like, oh, this is a cute story. He's good. Let's can't wait to see how the next seven years of this deal shakeout. Like this is going to be fine. It's like, no, let's surround him with as much talent as we can and try to win a Stanley Cup right now. and then deal with it later because that's how well he's playing. You know what I mean?

I think it's expedited the timeline in that regard beyond what we could have reasonably expected. Yeah, like the situation you're describing is Tage Thompson, right? Like, oh, he's having a really nice tier for himself. I can't wait to see what he does for the rest of this brand new contract he signed. And the Sabres are way better than expected. And if they make the playoffs, Tage Thompson will be getting top five MVP. Vos. Like, I, there's not a doubt in my mind because he's just become so much the focal point,

even though like Dahlene and Jeff Skinner are having great ears and stuff like that. But like, he's just so much the focal point. And so is Jack Hughes. Jack Hughes is the same thing, except he's much better than Tage Thompson, which is weird to say because, again, Tage Thompson is having an MVP caliber season for a team that isn't very good. Yeah. Okay. Let's take our break here, Ryan, before we forget.

And then when we come back, we'll keep talking about all the stuff we've got on our list. So looking forward to that. You were listening to the Hockey Pediocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Videocast with Ryan Lambert. Before we move off with Hughes, you know, we were talking about sort of Stanley Cup aspirations and going for it. What's your mileage on, like, how aggressively they should be pursuing this deadline in terms of, like, whether it makes sense for them to just be pushing? many chips in as they possibly can in these Timo Meyer sweepstakes because like people listen to the show know that I'm all in on that. But I also just love Myers as a player so much that

there's like three teams in the league, I think that I could make the similar case for, which makes me think that the devils should be the ones trying to do it because I think it could make like the biggest impact for them, I think. I agree that it could make the biggest impact. And I don't, I'm not super familiar with the devil's cab situation next. year, but I do wonder because he has like a huge qualifying offer and they have

a bunch of RFAs that they need to resign. Like I don't know how much it fully lines up for them as much as they do have like a lot of, you know, good value contracts, including Hughes's at 8 million bucks is like a deal. Nico Heesh at 7 and a

quarter, I want to say, is a deal. Maybe Dougie Hamilton at 9 is about right. but I'm just really curious because they just have a ton of RFAs is like the one thing I remember about the last time I looked at their cap-friendly page. Yeah, well, the thing with them, though, is they have a bunch of money coming off the books with guys who I think are replaceable, but also, like, they're in a situation where they could conceivably just be like, all right, well, thank you for your service, Damon Severson and Ryan Graves.

We're going to let you guys walk in free agency. and then replace them with like top defensive prospects and just play them in sheltered minutes. You know what I mean? Because they do have Hamilton and Seganthaler and Marino already there. So they had that like defensive infrastructure in place where if they decide to bring in Timelmeyer, pay him long term, extend yes per Brad as well. I think they have enough money to make all those pieces fit. It brought up an interesting point. I think Friedman had it in his 32 thoughts this week.

I've heard it before where there's this notion that the devils want to keep. every forward contract they signed from here on out under Hughes's 8 and I'm like good luck with that uh you know honestly it like you sure that you know we again this is I'm sure they want to yeah yeah this is something we talked about on puck suit yesterday where like the red wings could do it because they were like look Nick Lidsstrom's only making like six million bucks you want to make more than Nick Lidstrom and the Bruins did it forever with or not forever, but for a while with Bergeron. And then David Craichie was like,

well, I should make more than Patrick Bergeron. And the Bruins were like, yeah, sure, that makes sense. And it was like, did it make sense? I don't know. But like, you know, Lindstrom and Bergeron, those are like a plus, plus, plus, plus first ballot all stars. Like, no question about it. And Jack Hughes is like, well, he had one good season.

So obviously we could never pay anybody more than that. Okay, relax a little bit. well especially again because the Hamilton's making nine if you want to say the bar is nine I don't think there are too many guys that the devils could get their hands on who would cost them who should cost more than nine but eight is if I just think like you we've gotten to the point where you say you simply cannot compare RFA and UFA years right well for sure the the leverage power between them is is the gap is so wide at this point and Myers are pending RFA though right he is but he's got the he's got the 10 million qualifying and he's gonna pay right so he's got quite a bit

of leverage it's like yeah he's clearly worth more than 8 million he's i think he's asking for nine or something right now that seems well that's what i'm saying i'm happy to give him nine yeah but like if i'm trying to strong arm him into eight it's like what are we doing here all this for a million dollars you know yeah and also it's it's like well jack hughes signed that deal after having done nothing in the n hl yep and now worth what if if if you just ripped up his contract right now voted he'd be like maybe 11 11 next yeah yeah he'd be in in the double digits easily and so it's like yeah that's not something you can like compare as like all right everyone needs to sign this horrible

deal for themselves because our best player already did so totally agree so um okay I do want to talk about eric carlson as well you're mentioning the names for mbp I don't know if you included them in that list and I understand like his team is clearly not going to make the playoffs. Yeah, I did in the article, but just in rattling them off, I don't think I said that Eric Carlson. But if he was on a better team, I think we would learn, you know, if the sharks were even remotely in the playoff race, I think we did at least be having the conversation of, well, if, you know, if the sharks get in. But because the sharks are so bad, like, there's just not a chance for him to get that kind of consideration, even though he's, I think, totally deserving of that kind of consideration. Yeah, it sucks that that's the case because I agree with you.

But man, like, I have some numbers for you. I'm going to just rattle them off because they're so hilarious. So he's got 43, 5-1-5 points, which are 5 more than anyone in the league. That's 17 more than any other defenseman. So I think Adam Fox is second with 26. He's currently sixth and total points. He has a point on 42% of all shark's goals. And he's been on the ice for 65% of,

the goals they've scored. Now, here's the best one. So with him on the ice at 515, they're up 15. So remember that number. They're down 31 goals without him at 515. Now, they've scored 46 goals in like 1,500 515 minutes without him. To put that in perspective, the Golden Knights, Hurricanes, and Flyers all score more short-handed than the sharks do without Eric Carlson at 515.

That's crazy. So, like, I've seen a couple knocks against him beyond the team being bad, right? One of them is like, well, he's a minus two. So how valuable is he really if they're getting outscored with him on the ice? And it's like, all right, I know, I know what you're saying. I can't believe we're talking about plus minus in the year of 2023 here in the PDO cast. But this is such a perfect, whenever someone cites it, I'm like, yes, thank you for bringing up this opportunity to perfectly capture why it's such a dumb, meaningless stat. For sure, for sure.

The sharks? Yeah. No, just let me tell you. Yeah, go ahead. He's been on the ice for 12 empty net goals against, which are all minuses, right? And it's like, no one will argue that that is a sign that he's horrible defensively or a liability because the other team gets the puck and shoots it into an empty net,

yet it's being counted as equal as an even strength goal against. And so that for whatever reason gets lost in the context when you just look at the plus minus. It like penalizes skilled players because they're on the ice and these opportunities where their net is empty. But then if they score, they're not getting credit for it in plus minus because it's not. It's it's it's comical. So whenever someone cites plus minus in general, be wary, but especially in the case of what Carlson's doing this season, it is just completely irrelevant and tells you nothing about the season he's having. Yeah, if he's plus 10 on the sharks, like if we take those off the board and it's plus minus that he's plus. 10. Nobody's having a conversation about, well, maybe we can leave him off.

No, like everybody's just, and I should say, Eric Carlson is one of my favorite players of all time. So like, I'm automatically in the bag for, oh, is he like vaguely remotely if you squint and kind of turn your head 45 degrees? Is he like kind of an MVP candidate? I'm like, yes, he is. Yeah, for sure. He is. So, but like this season, he is obviously well beyond that. But guys on bad teams just don't get any consideration, right or wrong. And I would say wrong. But, like, again, there are just so many guys that are having great ears on good teams that I just couldn't realistically say, oh, he should guarantee being in the top five.

Because if we're picking a player from a bad team that probably isn't going to make the playoffs, Elias Seroquen should be on the list for everybody. Yeah. I think if they make the playoffs, he might need to be a finalist. Oh, yeah. If they make the playoffs, he should be a finalist. That would, and I would honestly bump out Posternak at that point, which is crazy to me, but it's true. Yeah, 34 goals, I've expected in 38 games.

I mean, yeah, what Sorokin's doing is just is unheard of. Yeah, the Carlson stuff, it just, it just, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, just bug like I think this is more of a norris debate then because he's clearly not going to be in consideration for the heart but whether he's bad defensively and he is and his metrics are reflect that is kind of besides the point especially for the norris trophy I understand it's for the best defenseman but whether he's providing the value offensively or defensively from that position makes no makes no difference right it's like a net positive impact in terms of, all right,

it doesn't matter if he stinks defensively because he's so much better offensively than everyone else that it kind of drowns that out, right? So I wanted to make that point, although I will say, like, Adam Fox's impacts too. I think it's a very fair debate between those two, but just between those two. Like, no one else is touching them.

As much as I love the season, Rosamist Dahlia's had, I think Carlson's year is out of this world. Okay, enough MVP stuff. Let's talk about, do I talk about like player contracts and kind of like this labor battle that's coming? You want to talk about viewership numbers and broadcasts. These are kind of big picture topics that I guess have been gaining a lot of steam on Twitter and in the discourse the past couple days.

Yeah. So about the ratings thing, the NHL ratings are down, like, but that's only if you look at, like, if you look at like actual, it doesn't matter. The thing I always say, I'm a big wrestling fan. The thing I always say when people talk about ratings and wrestling, oh, this many people watch Smackdown or whatever, you're a loser if you care about this stuff. If you like if you care what WWE or the NHL or the NFL, anything, is getting in the ratings, you're a loser. Just like the things you like and watch it. That's it.

So, yeah, I don't care about that at all. But the labor stuff is really interesting, only because we're starting to hear that for, U.S. Secretary of Labor, Marty Walsh, who used to be the mayor of Boston, kind of has the inside track to be the next executive director of the NHLPA. That is fascinating to me because as a Boston guy myself, I used to, this is not a joke. I used to live three blocks away from this guy. I would seem at Walgreens sometimes. So.

Well, does that make him a good candidate? Well, no, what makes him a good candidate is that he is a real hardcore union guy to the point where like he was accused or his office when he was mayor was accused of like strong arming companies into doing more union jobs or else being like, you might not get that permit,

just saying. And, you know, if you want to get into, like, I think that's cool to do. Now, if you want to get into whether it's ethical, that's a whole different debate. But it just goes to show that this guy is like a pit bull for labor. Like, that's his base when he was running for the mayor of Boston. Like, labor unions were his base. They helped him get elected to two terms. And, like, the idea that if he becomes,

the executive director of the NHLPA, what I think would happen is, you know, a lot more aggressive in the negotiations, let's say. Right. Than past executive directors have been.

Well, of all your things that you'd like to see them try to draw out of the next CBA from a player perspective, what's at the top of your list in terms of like, not even for them personally, As a fan, it's like, all right, this would improve my enjoyment of following and covering this league in terms of like changing this element of contracts, I guess, to make it easier to like be a fan of the sport. Yeah, I think the number one thing for me would be like a soft cap instead of a hard cap, which I don't think the owners would ever in a million years go for, right?

Like Gary Betman is the commissioner, like the forever commissioner. He's been doing it for 30 years now because, you know, when he took over, the league was like super tilted in the players' direction in terms of like what percentage of hockey related revenues they were getting, which, by the way, is how it should be. These are the guys creating the product, you know. But I think it was 58% when they first,

put the salary cap into place and now it's 50-50, you know. So, like, that's why Gary Betman's the Forever Commissioner. He basically, like, broke the unions back and there's a hard cap and there's no money that exists outside the cap and all this kind of stuff. I would like to see a soft cap where, you know, guys that, and this is kind of the NBA's bird rule, I guess, but, like, guys that resign with their own team, like the team the drafted and developed them or whatever, they count for X amount,

or teams can go over the salary cap to retain those guys in a way that they can't in the NHL. And so if it's just as simple as do I want to see like bird years built into contracts, maybe that is all I want. But more broadly speaking, I would say, like a soft cap so that like we don't have what we have this year where everybody's just kind of turning out their pockets and going,

I'd love to make a deal, but the cap's going up so slowly. I know. It's so stupid. It stinks. It's bad for fans. It's bad for teams. Like, it's good for owners.

But what do I care about that? I'm not an owner, you know? Yeah. In an ideal world, you bring the max term down for like five years. Sure. Yeah.

I think that's what. Yeah. And then you're just like, you're increasing not only player movement. but you're actually holding teams accountable to, like, do their best to field competitive lineups and keep their superstars happy. Otherwise, they can actually leave as opposed to signing someone for an eight-year deal. And then it's like, all right, well, you're in three of this deal. Well, good luck.

Maybe in a couple years, we'll get there finally. But tough cookie. Yeah, I'd like that. I think we have to make players UFA sooner. I understand that like, oh, sure, yeah.

But, man, being 27 or seven years of eligibility or seven years of service time is just a joke. Like, especially with players making the NHL sooner. I mean, like, let's make it 24,

25 years old. At that point, you've already got five years of service time. And let's get them out there. Let's get, let's, like, enforce a situation where players are actually being paid accordingly

for when they're really, really good and they're getting paid as such as opposed to these like 31 year old players who are getting paid for stuff they did five years ago and it's like and then you're getting into all these LTIR shenanigans and

getting rid of the contract the entire system is so backward so I think there's a couple pretty logical fixes there that I don't have much faith will be fixed but it's it's encouraging this will not happen for sure but at least it looks like they are beefing

up from a player perspective to like actually get some sort of meaningful change done. Yeah, I honestly like I think the net like if there is a labor salvage in 2026 or whatever, I think I think it will be due to a player strike at that point. Like I can't admit because what else could the owners want? You know, they got everything they wanted in the last like three negotiations. Including, oh, you didn't get to go to the Olympics again. Whoops, classic mistake. Um, but, uh, I mean, yeah, as long as we're saying, oh, there should be bird years and, uh,

less restricted free agency and stuff like that. No draft. Hey, why not? You know, get rid of the draft. See you later. Let's do it all. Look, I, you're preaching to the choir here, brother. I don't know what to tell you. All right, R. L. I'll let you, uh, promote some stuff here on the way out, let, uh, especially ahead of, um, especially had a trade season. Because I know you're, you're doing a lot of stuff for us at EPIRN Sites. Let the listeners know about that. Yeah. Starting this week with the Bohor,

usually we do this a lot closer to the deadline itself. But I do trade grades for every single trade. Like there's a minor leaguer for a fifth round pick. I will grade that for both teams, you know. But the Bohorovat trade really kind of forced my hand. So I got started on that this week. I also did the Matt Nietto for Martin Cout trade. So you guys are going to want to tune in for that.

over at E.P.Rinkside.com. And then all my usual NHL and college stuff is also going on over there. And then the Puck's Soup podcast, which, you know, every Wednesday. So check it all out. I'm easy to find. I love it, man.

Yeah. The trade grades are awesome. I will also be contributing trade breakdowns of the big ones as we get closer to March 3rd. So definitely subscribe to E.P.Ringside and check out all this. stuff we're doing there. This is a blast catching up with you, man. Be well. We're going to have you on, I'm sure, sometime down the road. So until then, that's it for today show. We're back tomorrow

with one more episode of PDOC to close out the week. In the meantime, thank you to everyone for listening to us. This is the Hockey PEOCast on the Sportsnet Radio Network.