The Hockey PDOcast - The Oilers Are Back, Drance’s Saad Viewing, and Hope for Utah and Ottawa

Episode Date: December 16, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to talk about the run the Oilers have been on since Connor McDavid returned to the lineup, the heights Leon Draisaitl has taken his game to, the gear the Devils have hit defensively, trades the Blues have made and could still make, and the hope the Utah Hockey Club and Ottawa Senators are providing us with. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the HockeyPEDO cast. My name is Dmitra Filippovich and joining me in studio here. We're back for our Sunday special that we do every week is my good buddy, Thomas Chance. Tom, what's going on in? Doing well was an interesting week, an especially interesting weekend I felt of hockey. We got the heavyweight, Oilers, Vegas, Golden Knights, Tilt, which was super fun. Lots of interesting storylines.

stemming out of the week. I think it's another week where the league remained kind of on tilt. And yet, I just feel like there's a lot of teams playing some really good hockey right now. I'm excited for this one. I'm excited every week. And we kind of always come on and we start with the disclaimer. It's like, oh, that was a fun week of hockey. But I feel like we've got some really fun topics here at A, including one that I think is going to bring a lot of joy. To me, it's going to get you worked up. And our listeners, those of you who are in the PDO guest discord already got a little bit of a teaser about this because I was posting in there in real time, but we're going to get into all of it today. Let's start with the Oilers, though. You mentioned that game they played on Saturday

afternoon. It was fun as well. It was a matinee game, right? There were a couple morning ones, but then that was the only one going, so it got a lot of the attention undivided for us. And let me give you a few stats to kind of paint a picture of where the Oilers are at right now. Since McDavid returned to the lineup on November 6th, they're 12, 4 and 1. They have a plus 23 goal differential. Three of those four losses in regulation came to the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild. Their two most recent opponents were the Minnesota Wild and Vegas Golden Knights and they avenged both those losses with pretty decisive victories. Now, I will say, I thought that was a really fun game on Saturday that Edmonton and Vegas played because the scoreline indicated one sort of narrative, which was the Oilers

were up 5-0, and I think if you just look at that scoreline, you would have been like, wow, this is a one-sided beatdown. But within the flow of that game, I would do. want to give Vegas a bit of credit because they were certainly trading haymakers with them along the way. I think they hit the post three or four times in the first period and a half or so. They wound up finishing the game with 22 high danger chances according to natural statutes. So they certainly generated a lot themselves, but the Oilers wind up holding on winning six to three. And this is a bit of a continuation now of what we've been waiting for and expecting from the Oilers all season. We were noting a couple of weeks ago that even at their low point, they were still living.

as a Stanley Cup favorite, according to the betting market and the odds in Vegas. And now they're finally, they're healthy, they're playing the way we expected, the way they looked down the stretch last year and obviously into the postseason, and they look scary. I actually thought it was a really well-played game on both sides. I thought it was very filled with drama. You could tell, obviously, and the commentators, I generally don't like when they do this, when they say, oh, there's no love lost between these two sides, but you could tell

there was a certain level of animosity as well. thought it was like a great regular season game it basically had a little bit of something for everyone the i mean there's so much i think we can unpack but the dry siddle goal the second one the second one yeah yeah the one that really in some ways like because the jeff skinner goal was huge the response goal from the oilers but in some ways that was it the three nothing or the four nothing one yeah the four nothing goal that that really felt i mean it did stand up the game winner, right? And it felt like it in the moment. It felt like even at 3-0 we kind of know what Stuart Skinner is. We know what this Vegas Golden Knights team is.

You know, a 3-0 lead in hockey is not what a 3-0 lead used to be. We're all watching the league enough and watching goaltenders surrender goals at unprecedented rates to know that. But it's that play with the cool axe squeeze and then, you know, the slick little play in the neutral zone, the really sweet move. from darn out there is to set up dry-sidal that just felt like a really high, a really clear distillation of I think where the Oilers are at right now,

where you've got this second pair stabilized. Because we know that this at home Bouchard axis, those minutes are so important. We know what Edmonton's fastball looks like, how completely unhittable they are with both McDavid and Drysidal on the ice. And we've seen guys like,

Casperi cap and add some speed to the lineup and, you know, Vasily Pod Colson's been a nice fit. And Ryan Nugent Hopkins has found his game and the power play is clicking again and on and on. We can talk about all that stuff. But the defense has often been like what we've talked about wanting more from. And right now with that Kulak nurse pair, it just feels like the Oilers are really stable in a way that I don't know that they were at times last season or even earlier. on this year. Yeah. Well, they put up 13 goals in these two most recent games against Vegas and Minnesota. So it's going to sound a bit strange to say this, but it has been true all year that most of their success and when they've been winning and even if you just look at the season-long

numbers, they've actually been better defensively than they've been offensively. And how part of that is obviously their shooting percentage as a team was in the gutter. They weren't scoring on the power play. But their goal suppression has actually been quite good this year. And you look, SporeLogic has them second in the league, in expected goals. against fewest inner slot shots allowed only the hurricanes spend less time in their own zone than the Oilers. And I think you hit the nail in the head there, the big differentiator this year beyond the play, I'll be on dry sideline. You get into that in a second is the adjustment they made finally putting Darnelner with a stable defensive partner in Brett Kulak. And we've talked about

how Brett Kulak is the great stabilizer, right? Like his game is so conducive to whoever you put him with. It allows them to freelance a little bit more because he's always going to be in the right place. and you saw it on that goal. He makes a phenomenal play in the neutral zone, forces a turnover, and then that allows darn owners to tap into his strengths and his strong suit, which is his skating, his offensive instincts, and then he's able to set up that goal on the back end of it. And so that pair has played 145, 515 minutes together. They're up 5 to 2. They have 64% of the shots. And I do think, like, that's the big difference for me when I'm looking at the Soyler's team and why you'd be so high on them, obviously. They came as close as you possibly can to win.

a Stanley Cup without doing so last year. But this pair is significantly different than the stories last year where we just kept talking about like, Nurse and Sisi, and then Chris Knoblock would start a series with them and then realize he couldn't play them, and then he'd look for adjustments and he split them up, and then everyone would praise him for that. And now they actually stumbled upon a great second pair that allows them to keep using Matias Eckholm and Evan Bouchard with McDavid's line at 515 and still feel confident that you're giving Dreisaitle's second line enough firepower with that defense pair as well. Well, and there's some luck in this in this statistic,

but since November 6th, since McDavid returned, yeah, Darnell Nurse has played 14 of the games. The Oilers are up 13-2 on the scoreboard, five on five in his minutes. Yeah, I mean, I think they have like a 980, say a percentage or something. 100%. It's not reflective necessarily of his value, but more than anything, what I'm sort of trying to underline here is,

If the oilers roll like this with their second pair on the ice, no one's beating them. Period. And, you know, I'm not saying that they will. Although, you know, there's so much to unpack. Like, I really do think we need to recognize that the most dangerous words in evaluating NHL depth defensemen are, he was really good once he started playing with Brett Kulak. the Canucks are going through it with Vinny Day Arna right now. Yeah.

Widely rumored to be very available on the trade market because it hasn't worked out. I loved his game on that pair with Brad Kulak last season. Did you watch during the second intermission of the early Hawkenny-Canada Canada games? Yeah. Do the headlines or whatever. And L.A. Bidman had this no. He said back to headlines again too. The Canucks are looking to move Vinny Day Harnay.

They're looking for draft picks in return. And then he goes on. And I thought it was really funny because it. kind of reading between the lines of what's on set. He's like, but well, ultimately subtle for anything, essentially, to paraphrase, right? I was like, you know what, they're not going to be picky here. Whatever, whatever you got, they'll take it. And so I found that really funny.

Which, honestly, it's too bad. I don't know that Vinnie de Haranais played that poorly to sort of He didn't just specialized skill set. It's so limited, and it needs to be in the absolute perfect situation, which is killing penalties and third pair with a guy like by Kulak who can just do everything. A lot of the puck moving and a lot of the heavy lifting. But when he's played with Eric Brantstrom, that's worked in Vancouver. So, you know, I don't know that I'm not taking shots at Vinnie De Hearde. I think that's a skill set that a lot of teams could actually mine,

especially given how, you know, relatively available and affordable, the player type that complements him is. Point being, Brett Kulak might be one of the most underrated defenders in Aki. And while Edmonton's rolling like this, and I felt like that 4-0 goal, that moment in that Vegas, game just really drew a sort of an underline about how Edmonton's become the scariest team in hockey. We expected them to get there. It took them a minute to get their engine rubbed up because I don't know, they're the Oilers. They still have a little bit of F around and find out in their game.

But right now they're rolling and part of the reason that they're rolling looks different than it did last year, we still expect them to make an addition on the back end, I think. And that's probably wise, they probably should do that. And the reason, honestly, it's not like the Kulak nurse pair has been so good that it's like the answer. I think more than anything, it's the, well, it's not a liability. Well, no, but it's the, it's the sort of like case study in like, wouldn't it be terrifying if the oilers had a plus second pair?

Right. Right now they've got their second pair playing at that level, partly due to luck, but partly because they're actually playing good hockey. And yeah, this team looks pretty close to unbeatable in those minutes. Well, especially because, as I said, they generally prefer to use a five-man unit of McDavid's line with Hyman and R&H mostly with that top pair of Bouchardin, I know, who am I to argue with the results? No. And then if they're pushing late in games or situationally, they need to create more offense,

they put dry side all up on that line. And then so that puts their five best players on the ice at once, which is an absolutely terrifying proposition to deal with. the issue is that the second they step off the ice, all of a sudden now you're a bit exposed on the back end, right? And there's no one else that can really drive for you there. And so noting everything that I like from that pair and the success they've had, I want to use that as a launching point here to talk more about dry sidle because he is, his line is the one that's typically playing with them in most instances. And I feel like, I don't know, do you think this is fair to say? Do you feel like it's flying a bit under the radar the season dry sidels having

this year because I think we've become so accustomed to him just putting up these gaudy goal totals and point totals and him playing at the top of the league that I feel like it's not necessarily groundbreaking news to say he's having an amazing season. But I feel like the level he's taken his game to this year has entered a different stratosphere, right? Because I think previously you could nitpick in terms of his production a little bit if you wanted to with like, well, a lot of it is predicated on the power play where he's playing with Connor McDavid. He plays with McDavid in these high leverage moments, even five-on-five. And then you look this year, and such a majority of his production has actually come at five-on-five and at even strength overall. And he's playing and he's anchoring

this line right now with guys like Vasili Port Colson and Caspari Capitan on his flanks. And not to take anything away from those guys, because I think they've obviously provided value to Oilers, and they did a good job of identifying skill sets in terms of like skating ability and in Bocholson's case just doing the dirty work and winning puck battles and extending possession and all that and that's why it's fit with Drysaito

but for him to be producing the way he is with those two guys right now as his primary wingers like that that is an entirely different ballgame right like that's like you're just putting two guys on his wings and he's just crushing every single minute with them like that is top of the league stuff yeah I don't think we spend enough time just marveling at the stuff he does physically.

So if you go back to 2018-19, right? So you go back and that's a fairly hefty sample of seasons at this point, right? That's what, seven seasons plus the 45 points and 22 goals and 30 games that he's put up this year. Yeah. Every year, especially if you prorate the pandemic, shortened ones, which you should do, right? He is 45 goals and 100 point centerman. Like that's what he is every year.

It's not he's done it once. And so we always refer to him as a 50 goal, 100 point centrimand. Like, that's his baseline. That's the highest baseline in the league. Like there's no, there's no one else other than his teammate that hits those highs consistently. And then, you know, we all know. also is a absolute dog who elephants his game,

usually while injured in the postseason. And so that's sort of the other part of this is the Oilers getting into gear now and then beating Vegas, I do think matters because it's important in the Pacific, which is pretty top-heavy. It's pretty important, I think, that they make a real assault at winning the divisions here.

I think it's really important that they make a real assault at avoiding being on the road in game seven of the Stanley Cup final. I mean, I still believe that they were the better team in the Stanley Cup final like five of those seven games, frankly. But the reason that they lost is that at the very least, when the Panthers had last change and they could throw this forestling Barkov five-man unit at them, at McDavid in particular, all of a sudden those minutes became a draw. and you saw as that series went along, you know, the, like game five in Florida, the Oilers needed a piece of unprecedented magic from David to win the game,

whereas by the end of the series, those games in Edmonton, Florida couldn't hang, right? You need to go in this year. If you're going to win, you need to go in, you need to avoid playing Vegas in the first round,

which is almost certainly going to happen, or at least could well happen. if you're not first in the Pacific. You definitely don't want to have to go through Vegas in the first round and then Vancouver or something like that. You need to win the division. And that win on Saturday put them in a good spot to do so.

They're going to have a shot to secure that over the balance. And then I think they need to have one of those regular seasons where they finish with 110 points. There's no 750 plus point percentage teams in the league. The Oilers have the true talent ability to actually, true talent level to actually like maintain that pace over the balance. They could finish with 110 points. They could position themselves to hold serve, home ice, you know, do all the things that just give them those little edges that they can take so much mileage with. So that's what I want to see from this team.

I want to see them maintain this level of focus. And ideally also manage some address Hiddle's minutes a bit down the stretch so that we don't, we're not looking at a guy who's, nodded his best come manju I'm those are great points I'm personally not willing to move off of the specific focus on dry sidel here because I really wanted to come into today and obviously highlight the way the lawyers have been playing

but also center a lot of it around just what a special season he's having his 22 goals lead the league 18 of those 22 are at even strength as I said 11 of his 14 assists at even strength are primary and that makes sense right like if they're scoring with that line on the ice he's probably creating it either scoring or setting it up himself.

So he's got, he's got, what, 32 even strength points, which puts him in the top 15 across the league in terms of all points scored. Like there's only 15 guys in league who all situations have scored more than he just has an even strength. The reason I'm highlighting that, of course, is because people have talked a lot about

how him and the Oilers are like power play merchants and all this stuff. Or as if it's not as valuable to score on the power play and it doesn't count as much. At 515 within the ice, up 20, 26 to 14, in the 60s, in shots, high danger chances, expected goals. And he's not even in top five right now on the MVP market. It goes as follows Caprizov, which I think is deserved. Then McDavid, McKinnon, Kucherov, Nachis, Eichol. And I feel like he, listen, McDavid, since he's

come back, is just racking up points at a ridiculous rate. And I think there's also an incumbency there where he's still clearly the best player in the world. And so... Well, if you're voting most outstanding, he's always going to win it. Yes. But Drey Sattel is their most valuable player this season. Yeah, like pretty clearly, I think, because of how much responsibility is put on his play where, like, he's the one now having to carry this line with the lesser wingers and his defensive uptick this year as well and everything he's doing across the board is phenomenal. But game he had in Minnesota where they won 7-1. Like, he just, it was an alpha performance. He basically just said, like, I'm doing whatever I want you tonight. He had this goal where he put Marcus,

poor Marcus Johansson and his hip pocket. And it's so cool when Dreisaitel does this. Like, other power forwards do it as well, but like the one where he just drags along a defender in his back pocket for a ride and then like makes a play with one hand on his stick and sets it up anyways. And so, yeah, I just, I love this game so much this year. And I also love the fact that his middle name is

Tim. And it is, it is. I don't know if I'm brother's up to you before, but in the PDAX Discord, everyone just refers to him as Tim. Exclusively, no one calls him Leon because I think that's just amazing. Unbelievable. Look, I like it. And I also think at the very least we do need to get to a point where you know what you know what this is man this is the next he is new generation of genie malkin and he's just not getting the love he should

because he plays the crosbie because because he happens to be quote unquote the second line center right on on an elite game but you know the penguins were we're crosbie was obviously great this isn't to disparage crosbie but the penguins were not going to have the run of success they did over a decade without Malkin. The Oilers have two top five guys, two top five guys, period. And, you know, dry sidled, there's every bit of recognition as being one of the five best players in hockey just also happens to be the only other one besides McDavid,

who shares a team with another top five guy. And in general, I think this kind of took the league by storm the last postseason when we talked more of the time was this anchor play teams are running and executing more and more now in the neutral zone where you're essentially just tossing it up into the neutral zone and you have a guy with his back turned to the defenseman and the other end of the ice and he's just standing there kind of like soccer style to just stop the play

and then allow a teammate to skate downhill with full speed and generate momentum that way and that's how you manufacture rush opportunities the Oilers right now are executing that I think as well as anyone if not better you saw it in that Vegas game so yeah I thought it was an incredibly fun game and that's why I wanted to start today's show kind of focusing on that and we didn't because we spent so much time gassing up the oilers as we should.

Yeah. But like the Vegas pushback. Yeah, it was cool. Yeah, they had them in hell. Yeah. Like they absolutely could have stole that game. And that's also sort of a, you know, a pace that the Vegas has that I just don't think there's a, in fact, I don't think there's any other teams in the Western Conference other than Vegas and Edmonton that have that sort of ceiling. Right now, anyway.

that's sort of how I view it. Probably not. And a lot's been made of Vegas's declining 5-15 metrics this season and, you know, reliance on shooting percentage and kind of offensive efficiency through that and how sustainable that is and whether they deserve to be considered a true contender. I think they do

because obviously I, with Mark Stone available and in the lineup, I just think they're an entirely different team and you see that. And they lose this game. I don't think it was through a poor effort. I thought the Oilers played really. well themselves. And then the game before, I know you were, you were big on the game that Vegas

played in Winnipeg earlier in the week where they were down because Connor Hellabuck was just out of his mind. And he was just being Connor Hellibuck. I couldn't take my eyes off that game. I thought Helibuck's first 40 minutes were, was the best 40 minutes I've seen an NHO goal tender play maybe in like several years. Because I thought the, I thought Vegas was generating at will throughout that contest and they go into the third period down 1-0 and honestly I thought it easily could have been like

a 4-1 score line I thought Hellebuck was super human throughout that game he was and he earned them a point Vegas wound up coming back and winning in overtime I will say though like Nikola Eilers has been out since late November at the point and just watching Vegas play with him

without him you don't need to listen to me talk about the virtues of Nikolaeelai He was a point player, but they're just, and it's an entirely different team. Like, they just lack that offensive juice. And I think you see that, like, how hard it is for them, especially a 5-15 to generate meaningful offense. And that ultimately did them in in that game. Let's move on.

Do you have any other other, or there's notes, or do you want to move on? Yeah, no. Or we go to Rake here. We've got a lot to get into. I want to quickly talk about the Devils. Because their last five games. Oh, sir, you know what? As much as Helibuck's performance was superhuman,

the Stolar's performance against the Devils. And then unfortunately, I mean, the Leafs play him in the next game. He gets hurt. I'm not saying, like, I'm not saying it happened because of that. But also with how well Joseph Wol is playing as well, like, I think ultimately there's no reason either of those guys should be playing consecutive games, even if they're not back-to-backs. And they should really manage their minutes. The devil's the last five games. They gave up 19 shots on goal to the Cracken.

They gave up 24 shots on goal to the abs, 17 shots on goal to the Leafs, 14 shots. on goal to the Kings, 17 shots on goal to the Blackhawks, just routinely now over these past 10 days or two weeks, keeping teams in the mid-teens in shots on goal over the course of a full game. They're down to 25.9 shots against per 60 this season. They're top five in expected goals against and slot shots allowed. And I know it's not a new thing, but I really wanted to just reinforce it because this is what made them so unique and special two years ago when they had the run they did. It was the puck pursuit, just how they use their team speed in general to win battles, but also suffocate you and take away your time and space and create offense through that

and then flipping the ice quickly when they do recover the puck. And that's exactly what they're doing now. So I know they struggled a little bit to create offense themselves here during the stretch as well, but what I'm seeing from them defensively bodes really well for their future this season as like not only a feisty team in the metro, but like someone who needs to be taken seriously as a Stanley Cup contender. Yeah, also their power play, I think,

has emerged as a weapon unprecedented outside of Northern Alberta. I mean, the way that they're, they are generating looks at will, shots at will, they're probably the most efficient team in terms of just getting through the neutral zone and getting set up fast.

Yeah. I love the freelance element of, just like watching Jack Hughes just come to the puck. Like forget formation. Jack Hughes is just going to come to the puck. And everyone sort of is beginning, I think, as this group builds familiarity to understand how to play off of them better than they ever have.

They are like a shot attempt shot monster. I mean, 70 plus shots an hour on the power play across the last like six weeks of hockey. And every game I tune in, it looks like it. You can tell. I agree with you. I think they're terrifying. What I love about it is, and I think this is actually the right play, obviously, you know, you want to keep the opposing PK honest, but especially recently watching it, it does feel like he just does not want to pass it up to Dougie Hamilton at the point. And I think we know, like, even though Dougie Hamilton is

probably in the top five in terms of like shooters as a defenseman, as like an ability to actually turn that into a goal, it's still an inefficient option. especially considering the other ones that are probably available to you. And like, Jackie was just exclusively wants to get that cross-seam action going. And even if it's not there, he's like, I'm going to try it. And it's probably in the grand scheme of things, the right play. But I just, I really enjoy watching that dynamic play out.

But yeah, the way they move is special. And I think what they're doing right now defensively, like that game against the Kings. And it was just amazing. We're not going to talk about the Rangers today because we've, I think we've led with them the past two weeks and we've said enough, nothing's really changed. But the Kings basically play in New Jersey. Can we just talk about the Kempe goal, though?

Well, we can't. But just let me finish this note. So the Kings play in New Jersey, and they're like stuck at 11, 12 shots on goal until they're in the game. They get a few. They get to 14 at the end of the game. And it was just like pulling teeth, just trying to create anything offensively. And then the next game is at MSG on Saturday.

And they have like 17 or 18 shots on goal in the first period alone. And are basically just like, wow, we have the puck and there's space. and we can do whatever we want. And just the night and day contrast of going, playing that devil's team in the way they attacked defensively to then the Rangers who just like pose no resistance or roadblocks.

Yeah. It must have, I would have loved to hear what the Kings were saying in the locker room after that first period because they must have all just been like, wow, everyone's getting theirs tonight. Well, they straight up looked like,

you know, Messi's Barcelona on that campaign goal. I mean, that was as beautiful, a team-level move as you'll see. And probably a bad sign for the Rangers that the LA Kings, a team that we talk regularly about having like not enough venom in their offensive attack, was able to pull off one of the most delightful pieces of team level passing, like straight up Popovich Spursing. Yeah.

Against the Rangers. Inexplicable. It was. It was cool seeing, I think, for this King's team, for us to feel differently about them, what's going to have to happen is Quentin Byfield needs to play every game, the way he played this game against the Ranger. Where he sets up the one follow goal, like absolutely just shakes

Braden Schneider behind the goal line and then creates a pass from behind the net. And then in the offensive zone, later just decisively steps into a shot, picks his corner, and hits it. Like he just needs to be more initiative, I guess,

and aggressive and deliberate and just shoot the puck a little bit more as well. I know that he wants to playmate, but like he's clearly got shooting talent and he needs to utilize him more. And so him just playing the way he did in that game I still need to see more of it

but like it's clearly in there despite how disappointing the season has been for it. Oh the first 30 games right I mean I think it's important to note that we're not disappointed yet on the season we're assuming you're not with the season we had last year at that age I just see he was going to have for 80 impressions yeah and and the kings

the kings are not you know they're at such a it's an unfair comparison because the kings are literally the hottest team in the league across last 10 games and keep getting away with it and kudos to them they're doing it without doubty uh it's impressive right their their their defensive play is some of the best in the league but you know it's it reminds me a little bit of the buffalo thing okay except at a much higher

baseline in that to get to that next step to get to the point where we're not looking at them as like an ultimate foil to the oilers in the playoffs but but instead of team that can actually threaten and maybe get by them. They need a guy like Byfield to become special. They need that guy to take that next step. So far through 30 games, he hasn't, but we all know it's in there. Yeah. Let's take our break here.

When we come back, we'll jump right back into it. We've got a few other fun topics we're going to get to today. You're listening to the HockeyPedioCast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right. We are back here on the HockeyPedioCast Autonomic. Strand's doing our Sunday special, Tom, this is, this is what I was teasing at the top of the show. I want to talk about the blues, but in particular, an emerging subplot. So let me paint the series of people and then I'll let you give your side of it. So it was a Tuesday night,

you're at Rogers Arena watching the Canucks play of the St. Louis Blues. And as we do, every night, we're exchanging messages back and forth about what we're observing, our fantasy football conundrums, storylines that we're going to talk about here on the Sunday special. and you send me a message that just I knew it because we're best buds, but I could tell just in reading how upset you were at Brandon Sade's effort level on the forecheck. And I forget what your exact phrasing of it. I actually happened to remember it because it was one of those things that occurred to me and like stopped me in my track.

So I'll let you, I'm going to kick it back to you, but just the exact words were because I thought it and then I thought to myself, this is the, the meanest thing I've thought about an NHL player. But I was watching him for check. And I thought to myself, he foreshacks really gently. And I just thought, what a terrible thing to think about a professional hockey player. Yeah. Anyway.

Which is especially sad because said hockey player, especially early in his career when he first came up with a Blackhawks and then even when he went to Columbus and then obviously with the abs, like his game was predicated on being a dog. Being a dog who white battles just cause havoc on the four chick was just carrying the meta. He was a little owner to play against. Yeah. And so you were very upset about what you're witnessing. And I got to see.

And this is the reason why I'm highlighting this. I think this is one of the biggest Ws ever for the eye test. Because literally days later, the blues hold him out of the lineup, healthy scratch him. Then Elliot Freeman comes on the Saturday headlines on Hockey Netta Canada and talks about how the blues are. looking for, they're looking to move on. They're looking to send him somewhere and, and facilitate a trade. Now I think it's going to be easier than down because he's got a manageable $4.5 million cap hit, although as you know, covering the Canucks wingers in that ballpark of like $4 to $5 million. There's not that much of an appeal or market for teams taking on those

types of deals. So there's that. He's got a full no trade clause this year as well. Now next year, I actually think it is an interesting deal because the AAB obviously stays 4.5, but it's an expiring deal. His base salary comes down to 3.6, and it becomes a 12-team no-trade instead of a full no-trade clause. And so I think it becomes more feasible that it's an off-season move, probably, although I'm sure the Blues would like to facilitate something now, but he's 32, so he might just be entering a different stage of his career. I can't profess to have, like, watched every Brandon Stodge shift this year, but he did score 26 goals last year. And so, like, I think this season, his performance has obviously not been representative of what I think he's

still capable of. And I obviously used to love the player so much. He's at a different stage of his career now, certainly, but the Tav3 is something that you, like, you were expecting to be better. Yeah. Well, that's, so, because he was pulling up on hits. He was pulling up on hits against Canucks defenders. And Canucks defenders are, you know, I mean, if you're going to beat that team and the blues did beat that team. But if you're going to beat the Vancouver Canucks, like you've got to get in on their defenders. That's the one area of the game.

You know, when they play well, like they did against the Florida Panthers on Thursday, it's because they're moving the puck crisply. If you're interfering with their ability, if you're cutting off their attack at the stem by getting after their D, like, you're going to win. Like, it's a pretty simple game against the Canucks most nights. And he was getting in, but he was not finishing hits. It was honestly baffling. I pointed it out to Jeff Patterson,

and I sit with in games, and then we kept observing it to the point that we were kind of laughing about it. You know, it was like such a pronoun, and you don't see it. You just don't see it very often. And certainly that's not what I remember of sod during his heyday in Chicago

or for Torts his blue jackets or, you know, even earlier on in St. Louis, I've never seen this level of performance from. Partly, my reaction to this then is thinking, well, that's got to be correctable. Like being on empty in terms of caring in your current situation. Like that should be fixable. I think a team would have to have a pretty high comfort level that they were able to,

they were going to be able to get more out of him than the blues are currently. But I mean, I still think he's a good player. They still think there's a lot of talent and intelligence and production there. And if he's going to play in a way that's a little bit uncomfortable, If he's going to be a little bit uncomfortable and get after it, man, I think he could be an impact edition for someone even at 4.5. It's just, you know, you'd have to hold your nose a little bit and really trust that your organization could get that next level of contribution out of him. Yeah, the blues are in an interesting spot. And I'm using interesting loosely because I would argue that no team right now is more directionless than them.

Like obviously they have the Robert Thomas Kairu core, right? And I think everyone's very excited about that. And they've been really good, Buchnevich and that as well, although he's a bit older. Then they bring in Broberg and Holloway, who have played really well for them this season. And so, like, they have young players. But, and we can loop in the Cam Fowler trade. They did make this weekend in terms of the blue line core in particular. And why I think you and I were so lukewarm on them when we did our watchability rankings at the start of the year and just their general outlook.

It's like they have so much money now invested in defensemen who are on the wrong side of 30. And that's going to extend now into next year as well. They've got 21 million in A.A.V. tied up to Justin Falk, Colton Preco, Nick Letty, and Camp Bauer. And that doesn't obviously include Tori Cruz, 6.5 highly on an LTIR. And it's just a tough way to put together our roster. I understand the logic from their perspective, at least in theory of they haven't been able to find a successful partner for Colton Preco this year, like someone, because I do think he's better than his overall numbers look like because he has such a heavy defensive workload and

still is clearly an awesome player off the puck. But he gets into trouble because he plays so much in such high leverage minutes that then he tries to do too much offensively. And so I think they want to bring in a guy who theoretically has puck moving ability like Karen Fowler and be like, all right, you can do that sort of stuff. And then this is going to work as a compliment. The issue for that is one, and it's really tricky to evaluate defensemen who play big minutes on bad teams the way Cam Fowler did this year for the Ducks. But he's 33 himself. His numbers have been catastrophic this year. And if you are going to play him in Prakow, with Preco moving forward, that's going to mean top pair minutes against really good players. And so the level of exposure you're incurring with Cam Fowler on the ice is once again an issue.

I'm curious to see what they do because in his debut for Cam Fowler, and obviously a very limited acclamation period, but they bring him in, they play against the stars on Saturday, he plays with Justin Falk, and they just get absolutely massacred in those minutes, and I certainly don't think that's going to be a fit. So I'm curious to see what happens there,

but I can help just feel it was an extension of everything that I dislike about the way the Blues have decided to build their team out over the past couple of years. Well, I will say they've got something of a new coach bump under Montgomery. right i mean what five one and one i think through his first that's just off the top of my head but through through his first um seven games or six games or so the or i guess it's five two and one now because they lost to dallas but the i like i'm i'm heartened that he scratched thought

that that level of performance wasn't acceptable that there was going to be more accountability than that and you know if the player then requests a trade or whatever like for me anyway i don't think it's one of those situations where you look at it and say, hey, like, that's the cost of, like, that's how you have to do business. I think if you're going to have the sort of team that can outwork their opponents 50 times a year, which you need, if you're going to make the playoffs in the NHL, which is where the blues want to be and should be given, you know, the cost of the roster, the age of the roster, how they've built the roster, and sort of what direction they're going in which, you know, arguably is no direction whatsoever. What, uh, whatsoever. But none the rest. So,

I actually take some heart that they're at least beginning to install just 10 games in Amani's tenure, or less than 10 games in, at least some sort of layer of veneer of accountability here. Well, and they do a lot of stuff offensively that we like, right? Like, they obviously have game breakers atop the lineup. They attack a lot off the rush. They trade in quantity for quality in terms of the looks they do look for. And you saw it even in that game that you watched against Vancouver where, like, they probably could get a decent shot on that,

but they're looking for some cross-ice action and trying to set up an even better look. And I do like that. They just never have the puck. Like, their possession rates are abysmal. And so I'm really not sure what the upside is. I will say for the ducks, though, here, because we spoke about the Jacob Truba trade last week

and something obviously had to give in terms of the names they had on their depth chart on the blue line. And I will say, like, it's a modest return. wherever they retain a good chunk of Fowler's deal this year and next. They basically trade up, I think, what? Like, from they give away a fourth,

they get back a second. I just think it's such a win for them to clear Cam Fowler off of the team just because, like, they have to play Pavl Minchikov and Jackson Lockeme every single night.

Previously, Greg Krohn had been like alternating, scratching them because they had all these veterans on the blue line all of a sudden now. And so it seems like they're going to probably

keep Brian doing because they like his veteran influence and all that. But like, at least now they can just have all the guys that need to be in the lineup in the lineup. And so I think it is a win for them just to get out from under that deal. Yeah. Even Zellweger, who's been one of the rare bright spots on this duck's team was scratch. Yeah.

You know, and over the last week. Well, we don't need to do on Greg Conan again. We didn't need to do more on Greg Cronin. Yeah. I spent way too much time talking about this this season, considering the importance and significance within the grand scheme of things. Fair. Okay.

We got time for one more topic here. And I want to talk about the senators and the Utah Hockey Club and lumped them together. Because I would argue that right now, they're kind of like mirror images of each other in their respective conferences. They've both been playing really well recently. I think we like a lot of their players. We've been waiting for both organizations, obviously Utah in Arizona previously to take another step in terms of competitiveness and actually competing for a playoff spot. they're both kind of on the bubble now because at least for the most part

through these first 30 games of the season the top eight in both conferences have already started to form a little bit it'll be a little trickier for Utah because because like the eighth best seems like the abs and the Oilers are the ones who are hovering on the wild card spots

and I don't think anyone expects them to fall off. The Oilers anymore man right it's really it's like it's Dallas Vancouver where I was looking at this if Utah's gonna get in I think they would need Vancouver to fall out. Yeah, or Dallas. Well, Dallas is not going to fall out. I don't.

I feel pretty confident about that. I don't think Vancouver is going to follow it. I don't either. But I'm saying like really like. Yeah. plausibly. Yes. In a worst case scenario, I just don't see a scenario where Dallas falls out,

especially we talked about how much cap space they have now to like totally. If they had more injuries, they would obviously just go out and add a good player. Yeah. And they have the assets to do so. The Canucks, I wouldn't expect that. to fall out either, but I feel like, I mean, look, Utah's two points back now, Vancouver has a game in hand, but like that's at least within striking distance here with 50 games or sort of all up in the season. There's also a volatility right now to the Canucks performance game to game or just generally they've had so many injuries. They've got so many, frankly, bizarre situations, you know, that they're dealing with either on backburners or front burners and on and on. Like at some point, you know, not that we want to base our analysis of vibes, but it's been a long time since, the Canucks were playing like really impressive hockey as opposed to just grinding out coin flip

wins against, you know, some of the most permissive teams in the league. So, yeah, no, I mean, you're right. Utah's got a tougher, like when we talk about Ottawa, right, or Philadelphia, frankly, it's like, man, are we sure the Rangers and the Bruins are better than those teams? And that feels weighty. That feels like, honestly, my answer, I want to say no. Except that the Ottawa senators have this such a strong institutional history of failure recently, that it's hard for me to get over the hump,

especially because we've even seen over the course of this season, then sort of fade back into playing, you know, pretty piss poor unfocused hockey for seven or eight, a seven or eight games stretch. And the season's only 30 games in. But the other 22 games have seen a lot to like. Yeah. Well, okay, so the Sends, they win back to back games over the weekend. they shout out the hurricanes in the road, which I thought was very impressive. And then they come back and win in overtime against the penguins at home.

They had to use Linus Elmark and both because I think Anton Fornesberg was sick for the second one. That Brady-Kech goal was sick. It was sick. And now Allmark, five goals against total in his last five games played up to 9, 10, say, percentage on the year. The Benny Marcon has them at minus 108 to make the playoffs. Minus. Minus 108. And to be fair, they still have the Bruins and the Rangers slightly ahead of the

them, but obviously with each passing day, the Rangers have been plummeting. And I feel like, I know the Bruins had the bounce back effort against the Canucks, but the two games, they played before that, they got absolutely shellacked. And I do feel like when you compare the two, I feel like the opening, because it feels like there are potentially two spots available, depending on how things keep progressing. And the fact that, like, you look at the senators, I mean, they're 5-15 metrics this year. There's so much the like, like defensively, they're just way better. And I mentioned that Allmark as well as playing well recently and living up to what they invested in him. And then they have a six-ring power play as well. And so like you put that together as a formula with a team that's

generally on the younger side and you expect to at least keep playing at this level, if not progressing. I can paint a very interesting picture. Obviously, you have nagging in the back of your mind that institutional failure you noted. But their upcoming schedule because the World Juniors this year are being held in Ottawa. Right. They have a nine straight game stretch. You've on in the West, and they come back and play, I believe, at Detroit to close it out. But eight straight games against Western Conference teams on the road, they don't play at home again until January 9th against Sabres. It is currently Sunday, December 15th, as we're speaking. So that's a long stretch. And I think that could be, it's still too early because even at that point, they'll have

like, what, 45 games left in the season or something. But this is a very fascinating crossroads moment for them because they've been banking points and playing much better and playing, I think as we like to describe like serious hockey. Yes. I think and I think that's incredibly important because they were deeply unsurious before. And so if they can keep this going, even if it's not necessarily winning a majority of those games, if they just keep playing this way, I feel like I'm going to be very,

I'm keeping my eyes open right now. I'm going to be very encouraged about their outlook, especially with all the deficiencies that the teams are battling with have themselves. Yeah, I mean, they're effectively, even with the Rangers at this point, you know, the Bruins are. The Bruce of quite a couple more games Yeah but their minus 20 goal differential I mean yeah when they lose it's ugly

Ugly This this road trip you know You're late enough in the season that you can't You can't afford Five, three and one You know like you really do have to pick up At least something like 10 or 12 10 to 12 points on a nine game swing

Just to hold serve at this point But yeah there's an opening How many points do you think of 5-3-1 stretch? Sorry, sorry. Yeah, 12 points in nine games. Yeah, I think that's good. It's okay. That'd be fine.

I mean, especially quality competition, because this is going to be like, they're obviously going to go through Alberta, but they're going to play, like, I think. But you're right. I did mess up the math there. Winnipeg and Minnesota. It's like the...

They can't go far three and one, but if they get exactly 11 points, that's win. Five-three and one is like the minimum they need to accomplish, right? The opening for them is, significant. It looks to me like a really unique opportunity, especially because aside from Columbus, I just don't see a lot of juice among the chase pack teams outside of them. And it really does feel like Boston or New York are ripe for being overtaken by one of these upstart teams in the Eastern Conference. Like the time is now. You have anyone, you know, as frustrated

as fans in Buffalo and Detroit, they should be, man. They should be frustrated. Like, the door is wide open and the only team that looks like they even have a hope and hell of stepping through it is the senators. I think I saw a stat. And maybe Columbus. I'm still a lot on for Columbus. I am too. I think I saw a stat that the Sabres have gone, they've had two regulation wins in the past 40 days.

Oh. It's Batman. It's so brutal. And then Utah, I mean, I think Utah is better than Ottawa. Utah's seven, two and two in their last. 11. Yeah. Logan Cooley has 14 points in that 11 game stretch.

Him and Gunther are playing remarkably well. They're 5-15 metrics. They're up to, and I think this might surprise people. They're up to 11th in Schottcher at 5-15. 12th in high-danger chance share, 10th in expected goal share, eighth in goal-share. Like, they're legitimately a top 10 5-1-5 team with Firepower on the power play. I don't think they've translated into the success. I think they can have moving forward.

they're 16th in the league in point percentage, so they're kind of like right on that bubble. The reason why I noted the odds for the Sends, and you and I typically like don't focus too much on the gambling side of things for hockey because obviously we don't bet on it. And also I generally like, I think too much content these days is inundated with it. And I think the listeners, the P.D.O. guests appreciate that. But as a storytelling piece and to provide some context, I said that the senators are all the way up to minus 108. Utah's plus 146, which I think is still like reflects the improvement they've had because like that's climbing. But the Canucks, for example, and I said they're a team they would probably identify as one they would have to realistically leapfrog or minus 330 still. Yeah. So like that's,

I think that really gives you a good picture of how the market feels about the likelihood of that happening in the West and then comparing the map or the gauntlet, I guess, that the senators have to go through compared to Utah. It's a. steeper climb, but there's a lot to feel good about in terms of what's sort of like baking in Utah, even if this is more the meaningful games in March versus the year that they probably break through. Although again, I'm leaving the light on for Colorado to have another run of injuries or for, you know, the Calgary flames to fade or for the Vancouver Canucks to have one of those like 49ers type nightmare seasons where just a preponderance of injuries and drama sort of swamp them,

or what have you. So they have a path. It's just a far narrower one than the senators have, even though I actually like what I've seen out of Utah as a team better than what I've seen out of Ottawa. Yeah, me too. I think it's very neat that they're both have improved so much at 515 and are right in the bubble here.

And like, I think for us to track here since we do this every Sunday, yeah, I think just following this and keeping tabs on the special race, man. Let's, you know, there's, you know, you, No one wants the playoff picture to both. One of like significance, like, a team like Utah with how young and exciting they are. Yeah, like how I just said they're a top 10, 515 team, this isn't like, oh, it's a race where they might get in and just get throttled for four straight games and everyone have a conversation about the playoff system and whether they deserve to be in. And same with the senators like we had last year when Washington made it. Like these would be like legitimately interesting stories to tell and to track and reflect improvement from teams we've been waiting for years to do.

do so. So, and it's cool. And teams that I think could seriously challenge, you know, the top teams in the conference. Yeah. Or at least be tough out. Yeah. Like they definitely, it's not a gimmee. All right, Tom, we got to get out of here. We did our 50 minutes. I'll let you plug some stuff. Canucks talk across the sports net podcast network or on 650 a.m. radio in Vancouver. And of course, I write about the Canucks at the athletic. We made it through a full show without talking about the Washington Capitals yet. I think next week when we get together, it'll be our last one before the holidays. We'll talk a little world juniors. Yeah. And I'm Ryan Laird. Ryan Leonard. We can talk about in Bristol now making it as well. I think there's a lot of

that's ludicrous. It can just be a capital show. We'll just talk about capital's prospects. How about Tom, this is a blast as always. Thank you to everyone for listening. If you enjoyed today's show, go smash that five-star button wherever you listen. Jump into the P.D.Ocast Discord so you can hear us talk about Leon D'Hry Seidel as Tim. That's all for today. Tom and I will be back next Sunday. I'll be back here myself in a couple days with a new episode on the feed. Thank you for listening to the Hockey PEOcast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.