The Hockey PDOcast - The Return of the Sunday Special, and Our Contender Tiers

Episode Date: October 20, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to take a league-wide view of the NHL's hierarchy at the start of the regular season, by sorting each team into tiers based on how the market is valuing their odds of competing for the Stanley Cup this year. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name's Dmitra Filippovich and joining me here in studio, my good buddy Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on, man? Hey, man. It's good to be back. I needed some time dealing with some personal stuff, but really excited to have watched a bunch of hockey over the course of the past 10 days since the season began. This is a dangerous time of year in terms of overreacting to some of what we're seeing. There are teams that are going to be good that haven't played good hockey yet. Or haven't gotten good results either.

Right. And there are teams that, you know, we see it every year. Stuff starts to snowball for teams. Stuff that works, you know, will persist, even if, you know, we sort of look at it askance and think it's maybe a little bit, like, more ephemeral than, you know, what the Carolina hurricanes are doing, et cetera. But this is a dangerous time of year, but a really fun time of year. and more than anything, man, did I miss hockey?

We are so back. You just used a couple words that I feel like only you would use on this program. So it's great. We're officially back. You got the Thesaurus out. We're killing it. Yeah, I got to say, the weekly schedule simply did not hit the same without the Sunday special. So it's great to be back at it.

We got a lot to catch up on. And this is our first show together, I believe, since the start of the regular season. And so we thought a fun way to kind of cram a bunch of stuff in and really kind of fast-track this catch up we want to do is bringing back a concept we did early last year where we're going to look at the market, how it's valuing teams, kind of go in order from from the bottom of the league all the way to the top and tier them accordingly in terms of likelihood of competing this season. It provides us with a chance to kind of take a big picture of you, I think, of where we're at with the league right now, acknowledging that everyone's played about five or six games so far.

But I think it'll be fun and we can kind of touch on every team or obviously there's going to be certain ones that we want to spend more time on. hopefully we can actually spend a reasonable amount of time on the best teams for once because I feel like whenever we do stuff like this, we wind up just going hard right off the top on the worst team. So many Black Hawk sticks. Yeah. Okay.

So I've got it into seven tiers here. And we can kind of, you can nitpick it if you want, if you believe that someone belongs in an upper or lower tier than I have them in. But this is just how the market's valuing them at this point. Black Hawk, Sharks, and Penguins Tier 7. Do you have any issues with that? do you feel like anyone else belongs in that tier of bottom teams? Obviously, the penguins have gotten off to a better start in terms of results.

I think there's a lot to build on for them because if Genni Malkin looks good. Now he's looked good in October the past couple seasons and then has kind of slowed down a little bit. I do think, though, for the penguins, unlike previous seasons, it's not just entirely a group of veterans with no sort of hope and near sight because you've got guys like Ben Kendall, Harrison, Brunick actually contributing winning their five-on-five minutes. I think that's incredibly encouraging. So I almost feel like the penguins, I would have thought heading into this year that they were, as we spoke about extensively, they're probably the team most positioned, I think, to be bad on purpose. Like I think some of these other teams like the Black House and Sharks will just be bad because they're so young and this is a natural part

of their developmental curve. The penguins actually want to be bad to get high picks and they have a long season. They still have 75, 77 games, whatever to get there. But it does feel like they probably belong in Tier 6, I think. I just put them here because they have the exact same odds right now as these two other teams. I agree with you. And, you know, it's an interesting thing where, you know, to some extent, despite the vibes gap between the Blackhawks and the Sharks, you know, watching some early Blackhawks. Well, the vibes gap last year. I feel like it's flipped a little bit so far. It has flipped a little bit. And I also think it's a product of, you know, right now with that Blackhawks lineup, not that it's good.

But, you know, you usually have a couple guys out there who are pretty interesting, at least in one end or another, and in some cases both ends. You know, the McKayev Dickinson sick those guys against Tufts. Their defense is starting to look pretty plucky, pretty interesting. You imagine it'll get, like, the difference between those two teams is the Black Hawk, defense is so young right now. And so I think they're going to make mistakes and you've seen that from like Renzell and Levsinov and stuff. But you imagine as they get more reps in, they're going to improve.

Whereas the sharks obviously have Sam Dickinson, but for the most part, it's a group of veteran defensemen that aren't necessarily going to get better and are massive black holes defensively. And I think that's playing in part why like they just never have the puck and they're just abhorrent in their own zone right now. I think if you're watching the first week of the season, there's like signs of credibility from the Blackhawks that were absent last year, which is a credit to Jeff Blaschell, whose work I didn't exactly admire in Detroit.

But I don't think we should underestimate the extent to which he's an upgrade over what the Blackhawks had last year, even if we're not specifically high on him. And then I do think the addition of Renzell and company on the back end. But yeah, I mean, there's like five or six guys who belong in an NHL top nine right now playing top nine minutes for the Blackhawks. Are they still several weapons short? You know, are they still bringing a knife to a gunfight to quote a famous Chicago film or film set in Chicago in any event?

Yes. But at least the knives of machete. Like, at least they're beginning to get there in a way that almost reminds me a little bit of how it felt watching the sharks play last year, where it was like, okay, you know, they're not going to win a bunch of games, but at least there's Wenberg and there's, and for whatever reason I don't feel like we're getting that experience watching the sharks in the early part of the season.

I'm of two minds here because on the one hand I think clearly I think most specifically Frankie Nazar having as much juice as he has answers a lot of the questions or concerns we had last year for Connor Bedard which was the benefit Macklin Celebrini had in San Jose

where you could see the vision with Will Smith particularly but even Eklund and Future forwards they'd add to this group where it's like these guys are going to grow together they have running mates it makes sense that they're going to get better as they get more reps conrad didn't really have that last year and i think i know they're not playing together but what frankie nazar is already put together early in the season i mean that goal he scored um on t-n-t against the blues the other day was incredible set of footwork and sort of deception with his skating and on the

finish and so i just think that gives them another layer to the offense i do wonder though you look and the Blackhawks are shooting 13% at 5-15 right now. I think there's second in the league in shooting percentage. And so I think vibes often correlate with if the puck's going into the net or not. And if that comes down a little bit, I think that vibe shift could. Yeah, they're getting goaltending too. Yes. But I do, the sharks have been a bit concerning to me because they're showing a lot of

the bad habits that we saw from the Blackhawks last year with just like they're drowning at 5-on-5. And Celebrini is having a really tough go of it defensively. and so that'll get better as the year goes along. But right now, like, they're going to be high still when we do our watchability rankings because their games are so chaotic. Yeah. And they have some offensive juice, but they're so bad defensively

that they get into these crazy high-scoring games and it's fun to watch. But in terms of results right now, it's pretty bleak. So really, we just think Pittsburgh doesn't quite belong with the- I think they belong with, especially when you go through, like, the teams that we have in Tier 6. Yeah, I agree with you. It seems like a much better comp for them. And those teams are the Cracken, Predators, Flyers, and Bruins. The flames are in tier five purely because of their odds right now.

I'm going to get ahead a little bit here and say that they probably belong in this tier based on what we've seen from them so far and just how offensively inept they are. But yeah, I'd basically have those four teams I listed with the Penguins and Flames, I think, in this category. It was a bad sign. Not the game where the Vegas Golden Knights really ran them out of the building on Saturday night, but the game that they played where they led to nothing, earlier in the week. Yep, at home, yep.

And watching that game, if you watched the latter 40 minutes of that game, the result was never in doubt, and they had a two-goal lead. You know, it was, and by the way, Vegas wasn't exactly overpowering them in terms of generating chance after chance after chance. But it was very clear which way that game was going to go,

and it was going to be a ton of zone time in the Calgary end, and they were going to be holding on for dear life, and they probably weren't going to be able to do it. And it felt like that, it felt inevitable the entire time watching it. To me, that's a red flag. Well, what's a red flag is they were 29th in scoring last year. This year, they have 10 goals and six games.

Three of those came in their opener in Edmonton with their spirited comeback. And, I mean, if you're scoring one or two goals, a game, no matter how good and how highly we think of Dustin Wolf, it's going to be a long year for you. And it pains me because they were so scrappy last year, right? I think they won us over. We entered last year thinking they'd be the worst team in the league. and then they hung on in the playoff race until game 82 essentially, and they had all these comebacks and so many fun stories and contributions throughout the lineup.

But it seems like it's kind of all hit them at once here. And I'm not bearing them entirely yet, but I do think it's fair to suggest that they should probably be in the same group as the Cracken and company. I do think the Cracken should actually maybe be a little bit higher. I've enjoyed watching them so far this year, and I think most importantly what's encouraging for them, is you look atop the lineup.

And that line with Baneers and McCann is like in the 60s in terms of expected goal share. They've been winning their minutes and looking really good and kind of combining for some some really high-end goals. And then Shane Wright, four points in five games, but a 54% expected goal share at 5-1-5. And he's building off of what he did last year where I thought he kind of quietly started to break out and people just didn't really, I guess, realize it because the counting stats weren't necessarily there, but he's clearly a player.

And the question we've had for them is the high-end offensive pieces, especially, right, and needing those guys to live up to their draft capital. And so they've played some fun games so far, some higher scoring fairs along the way. They've been very game. Unfortunately, you know, the ending in Montreal in particular was one they'd like to have back, but they played a really fun one on Hockey Nand in Canada against the Leafs. And so I actually feel like the crack in just in terms of some of this youth and the depth probably deserve to be a little bit higher.

Maybe I'd even just flip them and the flames here. Because like the Predators and the Bruins, I know the Bruins won a couple games early on and Pasternak is absolutely phenomenal. But you look at that Mishmash roster. They've been plucky. But that's the best they can hope for this season. Yeah.

I'm going to start really hammering out my, we're going to do our watchability rankings next week, I think. And I've given it some thought already. I haven't necessarily mapped it out yet. But I feel like the Bruins are going to be low for me and it hasn't even been because of the viewings I've had of them so far. It's just the combination of players

on the roster similar to how I feel about the Preds that leaves me feeling a little bit perplexed I guess and that speaks to the offseason they had. Do you have any flyers notes with our pal Rick Tocket and Rick's receipts? Yeah, Rick's receipts. The podcast critic.

You know what? They're 5-15 shares. Let me give this to you. 47% shots, 57% chances and 53% expected goals. Rick Tawket's kind of doing it again in terms of the shot quality gambit. And I think we wondered what Trevor Zegris would look like and what that relationship would be. And so far, he's fourth on the team in usage amongst forwards and obviously had that scintillating pass behind the net

where he schooled Sam Bennett and got it out to Coutureer. But his 5-on-5 numbers are all passing the test so far. And so I feel like the Flyers are definitely going to be one of those plucky teams that you just described. Yeah, and, you know, the, like, the, like, the Tocket floor-raising model, right, is going to, I think, baffle Flyers fans on occasion, and I think you're already seeing it with Mitchcove's restrained usage, I think it's fair to say. He's obviously got off to a slow start.

And, you know, you're going to see in games where Tocke's going to stop using Zegris at center if it's a certain type of match. We saw that. That was the wild, the overtime win against the wild, where Zegris stopped playing center for a bit, right, as the game script dictates. And look, I mean, I think there's a bunch of stuff all going on at once. And I think one of the things that we need to keep in mind in judging, you know, Tockets usage in Philadelphia is going to be that realistically, he's not going to be judged internally

on the results this season. And that means that there are going to be things that he can do in terms of of playing the long game. In fact, I'd argue we're already seeing some of that with like Zegris is a center. You know, that's not necessarily the move that a coach who's like seed is hot is going to come out of the gate with. Yeah, especially when he's winning whatever, 35% of his draws or whatever he's at right now. Right. And so, you know, making Mitchkov earn ice time in the first 10 games or 15 games your relationship is very different from doing it when your team's expected to be a cup contender.

a year, right, and when Mitchcoff's 22, 23. So, you know, setting ground rules, building that rapport now, I mean, I think some of that makes sense as frustrating as it's going to be for Flyers fans to watch on occasion or sort of look at the box score after the game and check out that ice time. But, I mean, you're seeing it with the structure that that team's playing. And, you know, that identity is going to be enunciated even more clearly as they get going here. I mean, I think by, you know, game 10 to 15, we're going to have a pretty significant idea of how Rick Tockett thinks this team should play, what their limitations are, and how they should go about masking them effectively, much like we saw from his Canucks teams in Vancouver, whether they were undermaned or not, and they usually were. One of the best P.D.O cast guests of all time, Rick Tawken. Truly. Tier five, and this is a really fun one that I actually want to spend a bit of time on. Red Wings, Islanders, Ducks, Blue Jackets, Sabers. And those.

Those last three in particular are just pure catnip for you and I. If we almost included Utah Mammoth in here, I would feel like we could spend the full episode on tier five specifically. How about the Zach Benson effect? Oh, man. I mean, come on. They looked so lost in those first couple games, like structurally what they were trying to accomplish offensively,

just an absolutely disorganized mess. He comes back. They rattled off that 8-4 win at home against Ottawa, then a 3-0 shutout against the Panthers. He's incredible. I also want to shout out our guy, Josh Stone. Five games, five points, 18 shots on goal, three penalties drawn, 64% expected goal share 5-on-5 leading the team, and he's another dog for them.

And so I know the first three games were incredibly bleak. They weren't generating anything offensively. It looked like here we go again. I'm not saying that's necessarily turned around. They still need to get healthier. But the Zach Benson effect and us being so high on them this year is completely undeniable. already. Do you want to talk a little bit with the Red Wings? I got a few, uh, a few notes to shoot at you. I mean, I, I, like, Mason Appleton scoring clutch goals against the Toronto Maple Leaf, speaking of PDO cast catnip, but, um, but, um, only for you.

We don't share our Mason Appleton reviews. And in fact, I'll go as far as this. So that was last Monday, I believe, right? That was a holiday year. It was an Amazon Prime game. That was the, that was the smash and grab of the first two weeks of the season. Yeah, I think shots were 40 to 50 and it's on the camp talbot was on fire. than that. Yeah. But so Mason Raymond gets hurt, or sorry, Mason Raymond, Lucas Raymond gets hurt in that game. Yeah. Mason Appleton gets bumped up to the top line. Yep. Late in the

third period in a tie game, Dylan Larkin makes this beautiful play-through-through-the-neutral zone, sends it cross-ice to Mason Appleton. He gets stopped by Anthony Stollars, and it was a nice save, but the broadcast is talking about what a chance it was, and I was sitting on my couch thinking, yeah, but it hits a little bit different when it's Mason-appleton taking that shot as opposed to Lucas Raymond. And then I think literally the next shift or right off the next draw,

he gets that rebound off the block shot and buries it and wins the game for them. And I'm like, I'm so happy I didn't tweet that or publicly voice it in the video cast discord because that was my inner monologue. And yet I instantly was wrong about it. The other thing that was nasty from that game was the opening goal, the Dylan Larkin backhand. Yeah. Was just insane. And he's a little bit unconscious. I mean, he's got to have been, he's got to be one of the 10 most on-fire players in the NHL in the first, you know, two weeks-ish of the campaign. I've been, I mean, talk about, talk about watchability. I mean, Dylan Larkin right now is must-see TV. Especially after the opener where they laid an egg and got blown out by Montreal and then he called the team out as did the coach.

And then for him to respond like this, I had a question the Pidiokets Discord that I haven't gotten to, like asking like, What does a good captain look like in terms of like what you do, what your responsibilities are, how you act? And I'm always of the belief of like leading by example on the ice. And even when the circumstances aren't necessarily favorable, like carrying your team at times, and it feels like that's exactly the way he's responded and what he's done. The Red Wings are coming off this three game stretch at home where they beat the Panthers, Lightning, and Oilers. Now, they had that game we talked about in Toronto where they were lucky to win that one,

Cam Talbot's to a run. They gave up 40 shots. They also played the Leafs in the previous way. In the previous game, like a very good performance by them. Then they played on Friday, I believe, against Tampa Bay. And they were out shooting them 22 to 11 by my count, heading into the third. And then Tampa got going a little bit tied it, Larkin wins it in overtime. But the point I'm trying to make here is the other games.

They've held teams to 17, 23, 21, and 18 shots by the Oilers today as we're recording. And so I think what Larkin's done and what Todd McCullen's done with him is worth mentioning. because they've essentially used him in a heavy defensive zone start matchup assignment type of role where you look and on Sunday they play the Oilers. He's out there for 16 or 17 of McDavid's 20 minutes. And what that's done is it's freed up, I think, the second line and the third line to be much more effective because they're not having to do some of that heavy lifting. And so you're getting some of that added depth for this team and different

contributions so they're not kind of struggling in heavier matchups themselves. And then Larkin, to your point, has what, 11 points in six games. And Raymond came back, but he missed a game or two there. He's playing with seventh round rookie Emmett Finney, who looks phenomenal. Every time I watch him, he was dominating against the Oilers, finished the three points. I think he led the Red Wings in forward usage in that game as well. And so I've really enjoyed watching the Red Wings so far. And they've played a bunch of good games other than that. in Toronto. And so building on this, I know they, a couple years ago, I think, had a really strong start and then quickly petered off, but it does feel like there's a bit more substance to

it, I think, this year. It's not purely a shooting percentage thing or them just being remarkably efficient. They still need more 5-1-5 offense, but I think there's more depth here than there was in previous seasons. I also love that their top four minutes consist of one of Morritzider or Edvinson on the ice at any given moment. I mean, I've also been impressed by Sandine Pelica, right? Like that he's looked like a player. He's looked ready and they've thrown him immediately into top four minutes, which is very impressive.

But the traits that Cider and Edvinson have, just the amount of ice that those gentlemen cover, you know, both at the offensive blue, but through the neutral zone and down low and on and on. I mean, you know, it helps to have the bulk of your five-on-five minutes being played with, like, one of these two absolute freak show athletes on defense. And the Red Wings have that. I mean, it feels oppressive when you watch their defensive minutes right now. Well, not only that, but the third pair, they started off with Travis Hammondick. It was an unmitigated disaster.

They quickly rectified that, put Jacob Bernard Walker on that pair with Albert Johansson. Yeah. And their underlying numbers look tremendous right now, too, doing what they need to in a third-pair role. And so you compare it to previous seasons and you look to the defensive depth chart. Yeah, it was like, oh my God, who played how much in this game? And that's not really the case right now. So I think that's really encouraging. Also that Casper de Brinkett cane line looks to me like they're cooking when I'm watching them play.

I don't know that the results have matched that, but I feel like they're going to catch up to it. So, you know, as Larkin inevitably cools a bit, there should be that secondary push with a second top six line that looks legitimately lethal. Let's rattle through the other teams in this tier before we go to break. The Islanders, the one note I wanted to make was I think it's easy to lose sight of how much Matt Barzal only playing 30 games last year mattered for them, just in terms of killing everything they ideally want to do. And so far early this year, there's been 32 5-15 minutes of Matt Barzal and Matthew Schaefer on the ice together. Shots on goal are 18 to 5, and the Islanders have nearly a 70% expected goal share. and they've almost taken that connection of Barzal previously had with Noah Dobson where they would do these interchanges in the offensive zone where like a give and go

or Matt Barzal's looping up high in the zone and then it's you know the defenseman needs to read the play and cut behind him and he'll give it to him with a little hook pass and all of a sudden there's open space for him to attack downhill and Matthew Schaefer has seamlessly stepped into that as a teenage rookie defenseman and I think that's been incredibly impressive especially when you pair it with how many minutes he's eating up so far and so and so I just have loved watching that connection and I think the islanders have more offensive juice than they've had in previous seasons because of it

and the Blue Jackets. Nothing too novel to add on it. Schaefer though, can we just dwell on this for a second? I mean... Boidmore, yeah, go for it. Like just, I mean, how, I would say, like, plus or minus 10 and a half spots, how much higher are the Islanders today

in your initial thinking about your watchability rankings than they were before the season? Yeah. You know, we were stumping hard for, hey, the league's not ready for Macklin Celebrini last year, and I feel like I've missed the boat on Schaefer. I mean, I expected him to be good, but I didn't expect him to look like a credible 1A play-driving defenseman at 18. I don't know that that's something we've seen, frankly. I mean, that's not what McCar did.

That's not what Quinn Hughes did. This is different. And I'm just wildly impressed to track this progress in this story here because what a first impression. This has been pure electricity. Yeah, the skating in combination with the instincts, especially offensively, are like a sight to behold. And I think just incredibly cool and very inspiring moving forward. And then the Ashuk's person, like, he's so personable.

I mean, that story about telling McDavid that he's proud of him, right? And just like, he seems to be having fun on the ice. He seems to be having fun in terms of how he carries himself. like he's a really easy player to root for. This has just been a ton of fun. Which are these two teams do you think, if we're doing this exercise, 20 games from now,

has a higher likelihood of vaulting up into the higher tier. The Ducks are the Blue Jackets. I know that's like asking you to pick between who's your favorite kid out of two, but that's what I'm going to do to you. I'm going to put you on the spot. I think it's the Ducks for the sole reason that when I'm watching the Ducks play,

some of the fire wagon stuff that is hurting them, costing them points in the early part of the year, feels to me like stuff that should get sorted out over the course of the season. Whereas I think Columbus is, you know, like I think what we've seen from Columbus is more representative of them, right? The ducks feel like a team with a really high gear

that's been a ton of fun in the early going, but that is just making absurd mistakes on almost every shift basis. I'm not sure that's going to get better, though. You don't think that's going to get better? Because one of the things about young players in the NHL is they're pretty bad defensively. Yeah. And that's fine as long as you play to their strengths of being good offensively, which the ducks were not doing last year.

Yeah. And they've really just dialed that up to the highest degree. They almost remind me of watching last year's Blue Jackets. Right. Where there's going to be games where you're just wondering what's going on in terms of blown assignments and the goal is against total, but at the same time, they're live in every game and they're going to have offensive outbursts.

I mean, you look at the pace they're playing at. Their games are averaging, like, over 70 shots on goal combined for it against, and like seven plus goals as well. Like, this is what we wanted to see from them for years now. Yeah, and that's with those style, like, covering up and hiding just the extent of the mess. Got to talk, though, about this Ducks P.P.1. because I don't know if the ducks are good. But I think their power play is going to be a factor

that will be monitoring in the Pacific Division over the course of the season. That power play one unit they've got where you've got Crider down low, but what's sort of fun to watch about them is the way that all three of Carlson, Granland, and why is the fifth guy or the fourth forward escaping me here? Troy Terry. Troy Terry.

they all will attack into the slot. Like it's not unusual for them to have four guys within seven, eight feet of the blue paint by the time the shot comes in from the point. I mean, they are so aggressive. You know, you want a one-three-one with some movement, but their movement right now is wild, like a completely different thing. And then, of course, you do have Crider getting involved in it and popping up into the slot. and you've got, you know, Leo Carlson taking the net front or Cranlon taking the net front. I mean, the calibration of that PP1 is one of my favorite things

in the early going of this season. And what really stands out to me is how aggressively multiple forwards are just, you know who it reminds me of a little bit actually. It reminds me of the, like, the absolute best of what we used to see with like Stamco's and Point, you know, and the way that those guys would just like, like, like sharks just kind of collapse. Yeah, they're compressing the zone.

Yeah, compress the zone once they smell blood in the water. You know, the ducks aren't there yet, but there's some of those principles at play in the early going, and it feels like that, you know, I mean, it's a mismash group. I mean, Grandland is just newly added to it. Crieder was an off-season acquisition. It's not like they've had a ton of runway to find chemistry, but they've hit the ground running from game one. And it's been, honestly, one of my favorite things to watch in the early going this season.

Which is so remarkable because they were historically inefficient. power play last year and have really been for years, despite having players were excited about. And so they put that together. And I also just love the usage of that line with guys who are like what all under 22 or 23 with Carter, Goce, Beckett Seneca and Mason McTavish, McTavish, who was literally publicly described as a third liner by his former coach last season. And now it's like leading the team forward usage. And that's really their line one essentially in terms of ice time. All right, Tom, let's take our break here. And then we come back. We're going to jump right back into it and go through the higher end tiers.

in the league right now. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.Ocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right. We're back here on the HockeyPedio cast doing our Sunday special. We're going through the tiers, according to the market, based on their odds of competing this season. Tier 4, Tom. This is a fun one. The mammoth, the habs, the Blues, and the Canucks. Now, our Utah mammoth have had some, as I talked about last week, a slow start offensively, I think, especially based on our expectations. Now they play that game on Friday against the sharks, and they're the perfect antidote to get you going offensively a little bit,

where Keller and Schmaltz really were able to break loose. But at 5-1-5, they're kind of doing what they did down that stretch. They got us so high on them last year post-Fournations, where they're essentially who have been a top-five team in all the metrics across the board, shots, chances, expected goals. They've been more reliant on the defensive environment, I think, at least in the first handful of games, then I expected, which is encouraging because if that holds,

then all of a sudden, once the offense takes off, I think the results will follow. What do you think about their start? Because I had Dom on on Friday, and he was telling me that his projection for them in the preseason was probably the one people took issue with the most, and by people, he means you. And he called me out specifically.

You were texting about it. He said that he had this visual of you and I, like, riding bikes on the seawall. and then angrily talking about his projection for Utah, and I said, man, I feel so seen. That is entirely accurate of exactly what happened. Entirely accurate. I mean, at the end of the day,

I think the Utah Mammoth are a fascinating team, and I also really want to see them win a few games by more than a goal. Yeah. You know, I mean, once again. Which was there a bugaboo last year? They couldn't win any of them. Oh, yeah. And I mean, once again this season, right, they lose by one goal to the avalanche.

They lose by one goal to the Chicago Blackhawks. It's a 3-1 game, but it's an empty-netter. So it's a one-goal loss. Yeah, the Flames win was a one-goal game essentially, too, because they scored an empty-netter themselves. 100%. Yeah. So, I mean, they are constantly in just these absolute white-knuckle environments no matter what. They can't seem to get out of it.

You know, we're recording this Sunday before the results are in, but they're currently in a one goal third period with the Boston Bruins. And it's like, good team. Utah plays a good team. And it's like, wow, this team can hang with one of the best teams in the league. And it's a two one game with 10 minutes to play. And they play the Boston Bruins. And it's like, wow, Utah, they're really controlling play and struggling to score

and generate off of their advantage. Their warp speed defensive game and just overall five-on-five dominance. And it's a white knuckler late. They're playing the same game regardless of an opponent. Right. And so, I mean, the thing is, is you add Petirca, you know, Cooley and Gunther are a year older. You have some subtractions and not some insignificant ones, given my regard for Josh Done and Michael Kesslering. But, I mean, is it a matter like, are we talking about the 2018 Carolina Hurricanes again?

That's my concern at this point. I mean, it's early yet, and perhaps the results will start to match sort of the level of, I mean, they already do. They have, what, a 10 to 5-on-5 goal differential? I mean, they're outscoring by a wide margin, their opponents, but it's just there's something they don't seem to be able to step on necks. And I do think fundamentally that's, you know, a group of players where your best offensive guys are excellent talents, but maybe not like great. players in the NHL just yet. I do feel like the way this is sorted, the teams in this tier, the gap between them and the teams we're going to get to in tier three is way too high.

Like the gap is too expensive. I don't think, I think there's like, we're at a spot right now where there's a handful of clearly defined top teams, a handful of clearly defined bottom teams, and then like nearly 20 teams that I could sort in some sort of interchangeable order depending on the week we talk about them. I think you're right. I think of, so read me this tier again because I think... It's the mammoth, habs, blues, and Canucks.

Right. So I think you're right, except I think the mammoth and the Montreal Canadians have a different level of ceiling. Because of the youth. Because of the youth. If we get 60 games into the season and are talking about a team that's knocking on the door with your Dallas, Vegas tier in the West, like I'll be pretty surprised if that's Vancouver we're talking about. I won't be surprised if that's the mammoth. that said, if we're talking about the mammoth having a two and 12 record in one goal games, I'm also not going to be like flabbergasted jaw on the floor.

The HABs, maybe I'm being partly clouded because of how much I've enjoyed watching them and the flare for dramatic. But I was watching on Saturday night and there were five or six other games going on at the same time. And that was the game against the Rangers that I was glued to. They wind up finally dropping that one. But they're down one late. They pull the goalie and I just fully expected them to get a goal by either, Suzuki or Caulfield and send it to overtime and then win it with another dramatic goal for

what, the third or fourth straight game essentially. And it was a really fun back and forth affair of a high event third period. They're super exciting to watch. I think as I talked about Dom on Friday, what's encouraging about them and I don't want to put the cart before the horse here because I think it's going to be a bit of a slower build. But the high end, like the top of the roster is driving such significant results. And then a lot of the issues that made them a vulnerable team last year,

in terms of the depth beyond that and how they were having to use their defensive pairs to enable some of the offensive stuff was just dragging them down. And then you add Dobson to that and everything makes a little bit more sense. I think and we're starting to see Demidov assert himself more offensively and I think that's going to come as he gets more reps as well. So I feel like the upside there is incredibly high. I don't, like it's not a great formula to keep needing to score in the final minute of regulation and in overtime. But it has added to my enjoyment certainly and probably clouding my judgment in terms of how much I've, how fun I think they've been. Tier three, this is probably the biggest tier in terms of just volume of teams.

The Maple Leafs, the Jets, the Kings, the Wild, the Rangers, the Capitals, and the Senators. This tier is way too wide, right? It is. Well, and it is in terms of the price, but there was massive gaps, which is why I put it this way, just for the purposes of the exercise. Like the Leafs are plus 1800, the senators are plus. 33,300. So there is a massive gap there, certainly. But when you compare it to the rest, higher and below, they all kind of belong roughly together. Do you want to kind of,

do I mean, to give you the Cole's notes on some of these teams? Yeah, I mean, I just, just like, quick blush first impression. I do think Toronto belongs, like, at the, at the front of the class in this group. And I think that's right. You know, they probably rate there currently because they're such a public team for, for the, for the, betting markets, but, you know, Toronto, Toronto's actually feeling like they've gotten bit by the Utah Mammoth Bug. They're playing great in all these games and they seem to be dropping, you know, 50% of them despite, I mean, how many games of other than that latter 40 minutes against Detroit, I feel like every time I've watched the Maple Leafs play, they've been decidedly the

better team and it just kind of hasn't gone their way. Yeah. Or it's gone their way enough, but not as frequently as sort of their actual control of play and like honestly dominance for long stretches of these games should indicate certainly the Jets 5-on-5 numbers right now are a hideous appalling do not look them up on natural statute no I won't they're being they're being carried by a shooting a league high 18% all situations and a power play which is six beth obviously subtract nicola Eeler's from it but it's still cooking how it did last year I will say they've banked four straight wins after a very alarming opener against Dallas. They've been the Kings Islanders, Flyers, and Preds.

But you look at their upcoming schedule, and these are the teams they play over the next month, essentially. Calgary three times. Seattle twice. They play a Utah and Minnesota, but then they play the Blackhawks, the Penguins, the Kings who we're going to get to in a second here, the sharks. It's a pretty soft schedule that's going to allow them, I think, to keep banking more wins while they just try to hang afloat until Sandberg, Perfetti, and Lowry come back.

And so I think that's encouraging because I honestly, not having looked at their schedule before the season, I was a bit worried in terms of what the record would look like by mid-November based on the state of their roster. And it hasn't mattered yet. And so I think that's pretty bullish for them in terms of once they get healthy, even if we think their ceilings lower than it was last year, they're going to be certainly better. Like, they're not going to be a bottom three, five-on-five team regardless. No. No. I'm not worried about.

Winnipeg in the slightest being a playoff caliber team, I just worry that there's no internal route to credibly replacing Eilers in terms of making them a team we're taking seriously as a contender at the midway point. The Kings and the Wild are too high, in my opinion. I don't see like what what's the argument for them being in a tier ahead of Utah and Vancouver? I don't see it. I mean, Copatar is out right now. They switch the pairs mercifully and split up Dumlin and CC, but now that's resulted in Dowdy and Dumlin playing the most minutes on this team. They're one, three, and two, they're 17th and expected goals against 24th and high danger chances, which doesn't sound necessarily that catastrophic, but compared to what they were last year

and what the offense looks like, they don't really have that wiggle room, I think, to get away with that. And so I think it's been pretty depressing to watch. They had a nice comeback to at least get a point against the hurricanes after falling down three nothing this weekend, but it's been pretty tough and then you look at the wild, there's splits, man. Like, outscored 12 to 6 to 5-1-5 with an expected goal share of 42% while playing Boldie and Caprizov. Like in some of these games, they've been playing 24, 25 minutes. They're just riding them and St. Brock Faber because they need to because of the depth

and the power play is phenomenal. But their performance on Friday night in Washington was probably one of the worst performances I think you're going to see this year. Yeah. Like they got outshot 45 to 15 and it felt more lopsided than that. And so I think that's. incredibly alarming. I think Washington's a good team and they were at home. But man, you watch that and then on the back to back, they blow the game and overtime to Philly and

completely solid and boldier going to carry them because they're so good. But beyond that, I just don't think they deserve to be in this tier of teams that I think have much more substance of them. Also, if you're playing forwards that much this early, like we see this a lot. Yeah. You know, this is part of the mix that has always made the John Tortorella teams like so great before January 1st and so different thereafter. You know, there's an element to which, like, Kaprizov's obviously an incredible athlete. And I mean, how many times have you seen him play like a three-minute three-on-three-shift

and he's still attacking off the rush at like the two-minute and 30-second mark? If anyone can do it, it's him. But I don't love the bet that we can play this guy 25 minutes anytime it's close and it'll hold up over the course of the grind of an NHL season. How good is it that the caps at 5-15 this year? are first in chances, third in shots, second and expected goal share, and down a 22nd in shooting percentage. Yeah.

I mean, it's a correction. I think an encouraging one, though. I agree. I agree. I think Ryan Leonard looks awesome. Protis looks phenomenal. Defensively, they look like a beast of a team. Yeah, especially with the two goalies.

There's not going to be an off night necessarily that you'd expect. And so, man, they look pretty good, in my opinion. I mean, what they did to the wild was... Take the first period out again. Vancouver on Sunday morning. But other than that, they've looked like an imposing side. Okay.

Tier 2. The Golden Knights, the Lightning, and the Devils. So I think I'd have the Golden Knights up. In Tier 1 with the Hurricanes, Panthers, Avs, Oilers, and Stars? Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah, I mean the...

Oh, we also forgot to name check that the Rangers' 5-on-5 game has been better than I thought it would be from the previous tier. I just want to say that before we move on. The fourth and expected goals, third and high-anger chances. And it looks like it.

When you watch them play, you just don't get as many, like, of those long stretches where it feels like they're going to need a prayer to score a goal. How good are Carrick, Rempi, and Edstrom this year? It's hilarious. It's incredible. Yeah, I love it. It's such a good bit. Yeah. I agree with you on the Golden Knights.

The power play, nine goals and 30 minutes. And it looks the part. Yep. Like, you were describing what Anaheim is doing. This is the most supercharged version of it. Yes. I think where they're essentially asking you as the opposing P.K. How do you want us to beat you?

And if you shade a certain way, they're just going to beat you in that opening. And that's resulted early on in Dorafeyev being identified as, I guess, like, the most palatable option than him just standing there and scoring a bunch of goals. Right. Then you shade for that. Then hurdle starts cooking. Eichl is, as you'd expect with Marner coming, shooting more than he ever has. Yep.

Iko has. Okay, so Eichl and Doref combined, actually. Let's lump them together. What is it? Six games so far? 11 goals and 80 shot attempts between the two, just absolutely ripping the puck and dominating offensively. And so I'm with you.

I think when maybe they get into a series against the Oilers again, for example, or they have to play the abs or the stars, I think there's going to be some stuff that can be exposed. But especially in the regular season, I think they do probably belong in that upper tier. Yeah, they're going to need another defender. I think we all know that. But, I mean, Caden Corshacks looked at the part.

I got to shut them out. The Corsack test. Yeah. And truly, I mean, so, this Marner Eichel combo is just so much fun to watch. Must watch television for me right now. And I just feel like they have as much talent as anyone else in the NHL and maybe more top-end talent than anyone outside of Edmonton.

Yes, I'm afraid the lightning are being overvalued. Yeah, I think so too. Now, Kutrov was ill the past two games. Yeah. And not in the way he's normally sick. Like, he literally could not play because he was sick. Nick Paul hasn't played yet. J.J. Moser missed the first couple games.

Vasilevsky's obviously going to be better than he has. But I watched that game in Columbus over the weekend. I know it was the second of a back-to-back. But they were getting absolutely torched by the quick speed of the Blue Jackets on the neutral zone regroups, where they'd get it out of trouble. They'd exhale for a second, and the Blue Jackets would be right back in with a scoring chance. And they finally wound up beating them in the third period with it. One, three, and two to start.

I mean, they only... teams giving up more expected goals per hour than them are the ducks sharks aisles penguins black hawks and bruin's not the territory i think you want to be in and they have the power play and the firepower up front once they get healthy to compensate for a lot of that but i think the underlying concerns about the foot speed on the blue line are as prevalent as ever and i need to see some sort of a a cover for it or an answer before i feel like they belong in a higher tier so i agree i there's no world where they should be in the same tier as the vegas golden nights no no world tier One, hurricanes up top.

Panther is still getting the respect because I think there's an assumption that we will see them at full health come game one of the playoffs. I don't like that assumption. No, well, I think it's a precarious one if you're... So I think right now, I don't see the argument for...

Just given the severity of what Barkov dealt with, I don't see the argument for having them in front of Vegas, much less Colorado. You know, I just don't see it. I think your, you know, eight to one or eight and a half to one as odds, you know, that prices in an assumption that Barkov's just like ready to go and looks like Barkov game one after like a bilateral knee ligament tear.

Like, I don't know, man, that scares me. And you know how much it pains me to say that about, you know, Barkoff. I am on the record saying that until I see them beaten in the play. though I will expect them to win and I will pick them in every series now obviously barkov's unavailable or far less than 100% thinking on that will change but it's still so early as I discussed with Dom on Friday I think based on what I've seen so far the hurricanes have really distanced themselves yep from the other teams in the east um is uh is replacing orlov and burns his minutes with candre miller and nekishan nekishin uh maybe a fringe norris caliber talent um is

Is that working out pretty well for them? It is, and the scary thing is there's 6 and 0 with a 23 to 11 goal differential so far. And they have zero points from Nikolai Eelers and Androes Svetnikov. My God. And Eelers has been snake-bidden. The other guys on his line are producing. He's getting chances like he's going to break through in a big way soon. And I feel confident about that.

Their upcoming schedule this week, though, at Vegas, at Colorado, at Dallas, that'll be really fun. Because I'm getting to the point out where I tune into their games and I'm just expecting them to beat anyone regardless of the competition. but that's obviously scaling it up in terms of the quality of teams they're going to be facing. You got any notes on the Oilers or the Stars here? Are you concerned at all about the Stars? Defensively? I do wonder.

I think they missed DeBoer. I just think there's a few coaches that really matter. And as a floor-raising defensive genius, like Pete DeBore is one of the best in the league. And this isn't even criticism of Glenn Gulleson. Like you go from one of the four or five coaches that we kind of know matter to league average, maybe even if you're talking about an above average coach. Like it's going to be felt.

I don't know that it's going to be felt all season, but I feel like you can see it in the early going and they're going to need to find some solves there. The issue is that they looked so bad or disinterested defensively last year down the stretch. Yeah. And then they just played differently in the playoffs. In the playoffs. And I think part of it is maybe effort in terms of how hard you're backtracking defensively because you watch their two most recent games, the game they blew against the Canucks at home.

And then in St. Louis, those two teams were just teeing off on the rush against them. And part of it was like they just weren't getting back defensively. And I don't think that's necessarily reflective of what they're going to play like in the playoffs. And the fact that Robertson and Johnston look as good as they do and rantan in his cooking, like the weaponry up front is preposterous. And so if they start trying a bit harder defensively, I do. think it looks a little different, but I do wonder, like, they're a fun team to watch right now, because they just don't really seem to care, and other teams can just skate freely and hammer rush shots, and it makes for a fun product to watch, but...

Play October hockey. If you're confident you can flip the switch, play October hockey like it's in, like it's October. Yeah. That's fine by me. The Oilers haven't had Walman yet. Yeah. And I do think that makes a big difference for them in terms of how the operation is going to function offensively. Also, we've seen McDavid start slow before, but 101, 515 minutes, 64 of them loaded up with Dre Seidel on the same line. And two assists in that time, getting outscored four to three, he hasn't scored yet. That's obviously not going to continue, but I think that does explain the results in the early going.

So I'm not worried at all. I still think, as we've seen in the past couple years, the gear they're going to be able to hit is going to put a lot of these other teams that we like so far in the deep end very quickly. Yes. No question, especially once you get to a seven-game series where you're matching up with those guys every other day for two weeks. But I will say, like, you look at, you know, Bob Stoffer's lineup tweets on Twitter right now, and it's pretty thin relative to some of the Oilers

lineups we've seen over the past couple years. Yeah. You know, like it is. Um, you know, whether it's like Manjupani on the top line or, you know, you, you sort of work your way down. Um, Henrique on the 4th, like, just, it doesn't feel as loaded as it has in previous years with without Walman. And so, you know, look, they're the Oilers. We kind of know, there are a known quantity, and that's a, that's a good thing. They're going to be one of the teams to beat out West. But, you know, I'd be pretty surprised if Vegas hasn't closed the gap somewhat, having added Marner while they've had to lose, you know, some key contributors. We just got to quickly note McKinnon Natchez. Yeah. I did a deep dive on the abs on Friday. That's why I didn't want to

link around too much, but yes. It's, I mean, there's nothing as good as that in the NHL right now in terms of just a showstopper trick. The Avs thing that they do best, which is attack off the rush with those two guys, is better than anyone else's best thing, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, especially with the death now, with having just so many fewer weak links up front. All right, buddy, well, that was fun. I feel like, you know what, in those 50 minutes, I feel like we caught up.

We're ready to, you and I already to start the season next Sunday. Let's go. We can start now that we've had this catch up. You got anything to plug now that you're back in business? I'll be writing again at the athletic beginning on Monday. And I'll be back on Canucks Talk as well. Beginning on Monday, that's Monday to Friday on Sportsnet 650 a.m. in Vancouver, noon to 2 p.m. And of course, you can catch us wherever you get your podcasts on demand.

All right. And the plan for next Sunday, we're working on our watchability rankings. It's nice that we've actually gotten to bank some of these viewing so far, as opposed to just guessing and projecting. And so it's always highly anticipated. It's coming back next week. Speaking of next week, upcoming schedule for shows on Tuesday, I'm going to be back at it with Chris Meaney. We're going to go through some players in great spots to produce this season

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