The Hockey PDOcast - The Senators This Season, and Signs of Progress

Episode Date: November 15, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Julian McKenzie to break down the start of the Senators season, the progress their underlying profile suggests they've made, and the next jump they need to make moving forward. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitra Filippovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Julian McKenzie. Julian, what's going on, man? I'm going good to see, good to talk to you. Hope things are good with you, man. Things are great with me. I'm excited to have you on for the first time this year. Last time, as our listeners can recall, we had you on. We were talking about the team you were covering at the time, the Calgary Flames. And I think, particular it was right around the trade deadline right they were in the process of selling a bunch of veterans and the season was going south and so i feel like the tenor of that conversation was kind of somber and uh luckily for us you're now covering the ottawa senators for the athletic and i think it's going to be much more uplifting and encouraging of a chat and that's perfect because this is the last show of the week for us here in the pdf cast and so i want to send the people into the weekend uh feeling good about their days and and being excited excited about hockey. And so hopefully we're going to accomplish that today. How's the transition been to covering the senators and kind of getting acclimated there and sort of figuring out all

the tricks and trades? It's been really fun, honestly. I really enjoyed the transition a little different from what happened with me when I went from Montreal to Calgary. But getting to be closer to home, getting to cover a team closer to home just back in the east. Like as much as I love being out West, like being out east was always really fun for me. So I'm really happy about that. And just getting to be around a new crop of guys and a team that's trying to make the playoffs. And they've been knocking at the door of making the playoffs for a little bit. And I feel this like this like kind of tension, not in a bad way, but like you can tell people in this market in Ottawa, like it's been way too long since they've been out of the playoffs. And there's a lot of expectations on this team.

And guys like Tim Stutzler, who I think he's been off to a really good start this season. with his play and some of the other star players they have guys like Brady Kachuk, Drake Batherson, Josh Norris, who looks like he's healthy right now. He's been playing at 100% and he's been really good to start off this year too. The Linus Allmark trade and then signing and now seeing what we've seen from him the first few games. I know his last one before the game on Saturday. It did not go as well as he would have liked. But for otherwise, I mean, that's their guy.

That's the number one guy in net. And Jake Sanderson, I mean, the first couple games of the year, there were fans, wondering about his Norris trophy candidacy, right? There's a lot of interesting characters on this team. There's a lot of interesting parts. And with the way the Atlantic Division looks right now, like, no one's really run away with it yet.

Like, the senators still look like, as of now, I think they still look like a team that's going to make the playoffs at the end of the year. And there's so many different stories. I know I want to delve into. There's so many different people. I've been able to meet around the team and in the media circles as well.

It's been a really fun. transition. I know I miss Calgary. I miss a lot of the friends I made there and covering that team was a really fun experience and through doing the show with you and some of the different stories we've talked about those were some really interesting times. But I'm really happy in Ottawa now. I'm really happy

with the job I got over here and I'm happy to see what's next with this team. Well, that's what we're going to talk about here today. We're going to deep dive the first 16 games or so of the Ottawa Senator season and the year really is flying by the sense. As I said, it played 16 games. I was looking at this and thinking about it. It's like

the devils are already at 20 this season. And it feels like just yesterday we were talking about them starting the year abroad, playing the Sabres. And so the fact that we're already getting that 20 game mark really reflects just what a whirlwind this first month of the year or so has been. The senators at the time we're chatting, they've got an 8, 7 and 1 record at the moment. And yet for a team that's, I say those numbers, and that's quite literally as close to 500 hockey as you can be, right? They've won eight games. They've lost eight games. the results suggest that they're kind of in the middle, yet I've found their progression this season

remarkably interesting. And that's why I wanted to spend much more time talking about it here. I've been kind of eyeing it from a distance, obviously watching all these games, but haven't really known what to make of it. And we're going to get into it right here. But I find that they're just general. Like, there's obviously the eye test. But I think if you just look beneath the hood statistically, they have one of the more intriguing and fascinating underlying profiles that's kind of tough to wrap your head around and we're going to go through all of those elements. But I think most promising for me is the fact that a lot of the questions I think that we had about them in the past years and kind of the things that wound up ultimately being their undoing

have at least for the time being shown very positive signals in my opinion that this year is different. Now obviously you want to temper expectations. This is an 8-7 and one team. And when you talk about them making the playoffs, it would be sort of on the edges. and on the back half, certainly, of that Eastern Conference. But you mentioned kind of that tension, right? And sort of how long it's been and what a dry spell it's been.

It's not only that, but it's the manner in which it's unfolded, right? There's been so many sort of stops and starts over the past couple of years, the Pyradorian era, kind of all these acquisitions and trying to put the cart before the horse, and then sort of tripping and stumbling all over themselves every step of the way. And so I feel like it's a low bar to clear to sort of reach a level of like, not being so deeply unserious as an organization and not embarrassing yourself.

Yet I find that, you know, under Steve Steeves' first real offseason running this team, it was clear the directive was reaching a level of sort of professionalism, right? And like legitimacy and taking yourself seriously. And it feels like with a lot of the moves,

they were aiming to do that. And I can't help just watching them this season. I know there's been a few performances we're going to talk about the most, recent game against Philly. If you're a really good team, I think you generally find a way to close that one out and win it based on the way you dominated the flow of play. And so they still have a few hurdles to get over. But I think generally when you compare these first 16 games to pass versions of the senators we've seen, I can't help but feel that the product just looks a little bit different.

I don't really know how to articulate it. I'm not sure if you can do a better job of that considering your proximity to the team. but it feels like it's just a little bit different for me and watching it play out in real time than it's been last year, two years ago, so on and so forth. That's a really interesting. I think that's really interesting because it's fascinating we're having this conversation at this point

where they're 8, 7, and 1. Because two games ago, I put up a stat. I don't know if you saw it, but there was a statistic I brought up where it was after the Bruins overtime win where the Sends record was at like 7, 7 and 0. and the 14th game of the year, they won a game in overtime.

I don't know if you remember, a year earlier, they were also at 7, 7 and 0. And the 14th game of the year, they won that game in overtime. And I just brought that up, just an innocuous little stat, just interesting that they were at the same spot.

And there were a few fans who were kind of freaking out a little bit, just like, wait a minute, does it be the teams the same? Does this mean this team's, like we're just going to expect them to miss the playoffs? Like, that tension comes from the fact that they've seen a lot of the,

I guess they feel they've seen some of these patterns before. And yeah, I don't have the experience of watching them that closely from last year. But what I can say about this team is they've shown at different points that the identity they want to form, which is this fast skating team that can, that has a structure that can be relied along, relied defensively in some in some moments while having a five man unit who commits to that of the of the puck that they can work and they can play games well and beat some good teams like Toronto earlier this week I know they didn't have Austin Matthews but that's as good of a performance as I've seen from this team in the early first quarter of this season they handled them in almost every phase the only thing that really didn't go their way was the power play and even in that Philly game which I know we'll get into at Lena Solmark they did well in every phase including

the power play they got a power play or I've tried to remember if they don't know what they might not have but like even on the power play they still showed movement they still got chances on net they dominated the philadelphia flyers in that game and the only reason why they didn't get all two points in that game was because her goal tending wasn't there i think and that also speaks to i think maybe the the big storyline that kind of overarches over this team consistency needs to be there at one point this year we're looking at the defense was it solid enough to hold them up together i still think they need another defenseman but It's since gotten better.

People are obviously going to look at the top end of this team with the forwards, guys like Kachuk and Stutzla. Can they produce consistently at a high level, obviously? And the goaltending. Anton Forsberg had some starts as the backup where he didn't look as great, and now he's looked like he's turning around. But Linus Allmark, there's still a question around him if he can be that guy, that number one guy who could be relied upon for the majority of stars.

Remember, he's been that tandem for the last few years with Jeremy Swayman up in Boston. And yes, he won a Vesina, but he won that splitting starts. And that's a guy that the Ottawa senators are likely going to rely upon for 50 plus games this season. And obviously you don't want games like what he did against Friday, where the goals he allowed were not good, especially the overtime one he allowed from Matt Vaymichkov along the goal line. He's trying to seal the post and it still goes in. The biggest thing with this team is going to be consistency.

And especially in a month like November where in the past, This month has undone entire seasons. They're very close to matching the number of wins they had in November last year. And they're right there. If they get it, then people will be like, hey, you know what? Maybe that's on the right track. If they surpass that, again, we'll see what happens with them. But, I mean, their schedule, Carolina, Edmonton, Vegas.

I think Vancouver's in there somewhere. Calgary's definitely in there somewhere. That is, if they're going to find a way to prove people wrong, and they find a way to get some results out of this next stretch. Like this could change some people's minds in the market about this team, but ultimately consistency has to remain key here. There has still been some stopping and starting. They haven't even had a three-game win streak yet.

Like they need to get out of that. And while you're right, maybe there are some things that look a little different. I think if you talk to people who are here and have seen this team year in, year out, they might be able to point at some things that look a little similar. But I also feel that that kind of optimism around this team. I think when they've looked good, they've looked like a team that can make the playoffs. It's just they need to show it to me on a more consistent basis. I don't think you can get into the playoffs just winning two games and you lose two games or you lose three games and you don't look great in either you don't look great in those games or you're not closing out those games.

There are a bunch of games we can get into it, but there are games in that first 15 where if they play just like 5% better, that's a win for them. Vegas, Colorado, and Philadelphia, those three games come to mind for me with that. There's a lot to unpack. I know I've kind of rambled a lot and got in on a lot with this team, but there's a lot to unpack off of their start. Yeah, the Vegas game in Vegas certainly, I think would qualify in that bucket. Listen, you're going to be judged based on results in this league, certainly, and especially when you've gotten this long without making the playoffs, every point is valuable, right?

And so I get all of that. I just think that, especially this early in the season, when I'm evaluating teams are when I'm kind of trying to figure out and project ahead. What does this team look like? Do they look different? Should we be encouraged by their performance? I feel like the manner in which you achieve the results and the way you play matters quite a bit to me.

Obviously, once you get later in the season, it's like, all right, you get every point you can. If you steal a couple points in a game that you didn't deserve, you're not going to feel bad about it. You've got to do so. But you mentioned that Toronto game, where they held them to, in 42 and a half minutes of 5-on-5 ice time, 0.7 expected goals generated for the Leafs, two high danger chances.

That Boston game where they went in to Boston, and I believe the stat was, you can correct me if I'm wrong, but Almark went about 70 minutes in real time without facing a single shot on net from the Bruins. About that. That was, that's insane. That was insane to see in real time that Boston just could not get a shot off on Lina's Allmark. And he was just basically chilling in net that whole time. Considering what we had been talking about with that Sends defense up until that point,

to see that period, not to cut you off here, to see that point was just insane to see. It was. And just utilizing that sort of team speed that you like to talk about, a lot of the focuses on offensively for young players, but utilizing it to just control play in that manner. I think that Leafs game especially,

you know, you jump out to an early lead. You expect pushback from the opposition, especially on their whole mice, and the Leafs really weren't able to generate any sort of consistent threat against them. And I think that was a testament to the way they've been playing recently, the Flyers game, you obviously only get one point out of it, but as we said, shots on goal were 27 to 4 for the senators deep into the second period. And the reason why I bring all those up is generally with a team like this, I remember like the Sabres when they first kind of had their glow up two years ago, right?

And they were sort of this young upstart on the way up team. It was driven mostly the results were by just going nuclear offensively and scoring their way out of trouble. and you like to see that from young players, but you're sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop. And with the Senators team, you certainly have a lot of that. You've seen it on the power play where it's manifested mostly this year. But defensively, Sport Logic has them eighth and expected goals against allowed. Fourth, fewest inner slot shots allowed.

Mike Kelly had this stat, and this is obviously not updated after the Flyers game, but heading into that one, they'd given up just 29 rush chances total in their previous seven games. Now, they got burned a couple times. with flyers getting kind of behind them on two of those goals. But defensively, this is a team that is significantly different on my opinion. If you're trying to trace, all right, why is there a reason for optimism? Why would you think the results are going to be different this year? I just feel like it's a bit of a different story for me in terms of the way they're able to control play for extended periods of time

and not give up stuff defensively. That's a massive leap that I think they've taken this year and clearly prioritized, right? when they went out and brought in Nick Jensen and just tried to kind of remake the image of this team, I think that's incredibly encouraging, and I think that's a legitimate foundation to build on moving forward. So I don't know, defensively, I feel like the strides they've taken there is the big story for me through these first 16 games.

It's definitely gotten better. I think in the first few games with this team, I'd see, at least off the eye tests, I think a lot of mental mistakes were made just with the way that they were handling pucks and making giveaways. And I mean, it's, it's natural that if you have a new coach and you're getting adjusted to a new system, there's going to be a grace period. I mean, and I mentioned Jake Sanderson earlier. This is a guy who started the year with Artem Zub. Artim Zub gets injured and then Travis Hammondick gets bumped up to that first pairing and now all of a sudden he's back with

Zubb. There's been the third pairing where you have Tyler Cleven and Jacob Bernard Docker who had to play when Hamannick was up on the first pairing. And analytically, they looked okay, but Travis Green seems to like Cleven and Hamannick back together and it seems as if still just a lot of people were upset that Hamnick was back in the lineup, but I don't think he's necessarily been that bad, that pairing has been

that bad at all. I think they've been fine, at least just off the eye test. I can't tell you specifically off the analytics side, but still in that role certainly. Obviously with Zub was out, they were kind of forced into a tough predicament. I thought it was a bit of it. It was a tough watch when he was

playing with Sanderson. Obviously at this point of his career, like that's just not a role that he's capable of filling. And so I think in that sense that was a disaster. I think in a more sort of reasonably used third peril. It's probably not ideal when you mentioned they could probably use another defenseman. I think that would make sense as an upgrade looking ahead. But if you're sort of picking your spots on sort of weak links, I think that's something that you can sort of paper over.

Sure. That's very fair. Yeah. You're absolutely right with Sanderson and Hamnick and out of it. It was not the greatest watch. But all that to say, the fact that the defense has looked better with the stats that you've brought up and the fact that they've had the Boston game and the Philadelphia game stretches where the opposition has not peppered them with a ton of shots.

That's big. We didn't even mention the one pairing that has stuck out and has stayed together through 16 games this season, which is Thomas Shabbat and Nick Jensen. And one thing for me, I don't know how you feel about Nick Jensen. He has been like the, I think of all the Sends players on this team, even who have surprised me the most. I think for a while it was Shane Pinto because I wasn't, I was not that familiar with the fact that he was committed to the defensive side as much.

But Nick Jensen is that answer for me now off of the fact that when he does have the puck in his own zone, nine times out of 10, he knows what to do. He knows to make the right read and make the right clearance and not panic with the puck. And he has sneaky good puck moving ability. He's able to bring that puck up if he needs to. He just so happens to play with a partner. who's a little bit better in that department and has obviously been used to being a number one before,

even if he's not that now. But to see Shabbat and Jensen played together and have that stability, I think that plays an instrumental role in why this defense has seen success, especially in the last few games with this team. It's just obviously with goaltending, he's got to be a little better,

we can get that later. But I think for defense, the fact that we've seen it improve from the first few games on to now, that's definitely a storyline. That's definitely a plus. for the Ottawa senators. Absolutely.

Jensen has been phenomenal with him on the ISA 515. They're up 21 to 12, 60% of the shots, 50% of 56% of the expected goals. I think he's a perfect partner for Sabot for all the reasons you highlighted there. Let's keep going with this profile they have. So building off the defensive side of things, at 515, they're up to third in the league in shot share behind only the hurricanes and Oilers, do pretty good teams. there's sixth an expected goal share. And so when we're talking about kind of predictive stuff

and things that you want to latch on to moving forward, those are building blocks. Now here's my big sort of question, the reason why I portrayed it as one of the more fascinating underlying profiles for me and something that I'm trying to wrap my head around, you look at the depth chart on this team. You look at the firepower up front. And on the power play, we've seen it all quick, right?

They're fourth in the league in goals per 60 there. Only the Jets, Golden Knights, and apps have been more. more efficient and you watch how crisp the puck movement is, how many different ways they can sort of pick you apart. Essentially, if you're the opposing PK, you try to take one optional way, they just go to the next one and they're equal opportunists there. They've been so good on the power play. The offense at 515 hasn't really come together for me. And I don't know what to make of it because I feel like they should be better there. The answer might be as simple as a lot of the stats that I just brought up defensively. It's because they're focusing so much on

that under Travis Green and kind of getting that established, then maybe they're changing their tendencies and habits a little bit. And so they're kind of pulling back offensively to be more reliable defensively. It might be as simple as that. But for a team that has these players, for them to be 28th in the league in those own time, back after the league and inner slot shots, scoring at 515, their 22nd and expected goals generated, I think that's been one of the things that's been confounding for me.

Because for years, I think people have generally, without watching every single Senators game have been able to get a pretty good grasp of their strengths and deficiencies as a team and what they are and when they're winning, why they're winning and when they're losing, why they're losing, that hasn't really been the case this year for me

and that's why I say it's been different. There's certainly been nuke offensive games, right? You think of the Blues game where they drop eight on them, that crazy matinee game, they played against the Kings. There's been a few blow-up spots offensively for them, but a lot of it has been

directly funneled through the power play. And if there is one area that I do think they need to improve on, it's just getting consistent chances and sustained ozone time at 5-1-5. And I'm a bit surprised that especially with like the top half of the lineup, it hasn't been to that point that I would have expected from previous seasons that we've seen from them. The one thing that surprised me that surprises me a lot is that I find, and maybe you could tell me different, I find the Sends are not that bad in transition. I at least like the tactics they've tried to implement where they will start from their own zone. They'll try to have an extra guy along the wall for support who can kick out that

pass and find someone in stride. And especially in the top half of their lineup where they have guys with more skill and speed, they're able to enter the offensive zone with that sustained pressure with that speed and try to have that sustained pressure. It's just for whatever reason, it just hasn't clicked for them all the time at five on five. Mind. you against Toronto. I think all three other goals were at even strength at five on five. So they have seen some recent success in that department. But it is interesting that I think they're able to do the things right where they're able to make their way up ice. They've had guys who've turned defense into offense and they have the skill to, you know, shoot from the

perimeter and make things work. But I guess I'd like to see them maybe kind of work their way a little bit closer into the inner slot. I think of guys like Brady Kachuk, like what more can be done to ensure that you're making more plays that he can get more touches inside and he's able to get more goals in. One guy who, it's been interesting, we made a, I made a point of it writing about him a couple weeks ago and he's found success near the front of the net as Adam Doddette, who was a Travis Green player with the Vancouver Canucks and now has seven goals on the season. But he's basically tried to turn his game around and go from a guy to going from a guy who relied on his shot from the perimeter to become a guy who will work his way to the front of the net. net, we'll get those chances on net and score goals. And he's been a part of that success of whatever they've been able to get in front of the net. So I think that's probably just that.

It's just finding ways to when you're in the offensive zone, move the puck around, get that spot in the bumper spot and then find ways to get success from there. Like it's easier said than none, obviously, both of us, if we found ways to do that, we'd be coaching teams. But that is an issue. That is something that they could be doing a little bit better, whether not even just at, at even strength or at five on. five. I think on the power play too, they can find them, they can find ways to do more of that. But I think for the Sanders team, it is interesting. I share that too. Just wondering why they have not seen as much success at five on five. They have the weapons to do it. They have a game plan that can allow them to enter the offensive zone with speed, with skill. They just need to

convert on more of their chances, especially down low. Yeah, Goddad's been a great story, just mining seven goals out of him the way they have, the hockey god. He was like out of the NHO. for the past two years, essentially, right? And so Travis Green comes in. He was. And he had that dream season under him pre-pandemic in 2019 for the Canucks here locally. So it's cool to see him kind of jumpstart his career again. Yeah, they're 11th in the league in rush chances generated.

I think it makes a lot of sense when you have Tim Stutzler, who's just an automatic zone entry, essentially, in my opinion. When you have Jake Anderson's skating ability and willingness to jump into the play, like they have players who can attack downhill that way. and like I said, the reason why it's so strange is generally if I'm saying, all right, they're 28th or whatever in ozone time, they're not sustaining play, they're not getting into high danger areas at 5-1-5, those are the teams that we've seen typically struggled defensively, right?

Because if you don't have the puck down there, it means you're generally having to skate backwards, the other team is attacking you, and that hasn't necessarily been the case. So I'm kind of trying to create some links here, I guess, or kind of fill in the pieces that are missing. and I'm sure Travis Green is himself, but I do think that it's just the entire story for me

has been very sort of surprising because I would not have expected this type of profile for them. I do think ultimately with the names involved, finding ways to manufacture offense at 5-1-5 is probably going to be easier to do moving forward and in creative ways as opposed to if it had been the same story where it's like, all right, well, they're scoring a fair amount,

but they're just a disaster defensively, then I'd be like, all right, I don't know in season what you can do to address that. So I do feel like it's not ideal. But if you're picking between the two alternatives, this probably is the preferable one for Travis Green and the senators. Yeah. You could do worse than to be where the Ottawa senators are now.

I still think, I mean, if they find ways to just close out games, maybe they get better goaltending, we're talking about, I don't know if we call them a surprise. Maybe surprise is the right word. I'm not sure. maybe they're 11 and 5 or something. You look at the Vegas game, we kind of alluded to it earlier, but early on in that road trip they had to start off the year,

they're going at this team that we know is a playoff team. They're hitting them with speed with those rush chances. And then just late in the third period, they just piles on goals in quick succession and they take over the game. Colorado, out of the end of that road trip, just it's tough for any team to keep up with the speed of Nathan McKinnon and Kail McCarr up in Colorado. And I think they could have played a little bit better,

but they found a way to at least make the game sort of close. And if they win that Vegas game and that road trip ends with the Colorado loss, I don't think people are too mad about how they do on that trip. That started off with a pretty dominating first period over Utah before they kind of cruised towards the end of it. But that first period against Utah, they got other goals. They scored four in that game. And they won that game.

It's games like that. and the games against Philly where they're dominating them in every facet of the game. The course he's up. The high danger chances are up. And they just need to put them away. I get it. You know what? The goaltending,

I still think they just need to be a little bit more consistent with that. But fine, the team itself, when they get those chances, I think they need to find a way to be a little bit more of a scoring machine in that point because you can't have a team like Philadelphia, who only has four shots on net, and you're losing the shot back on 27 before.

You can't let a team like that hang around. It goes back to my earlier point about just having consistency and just maintaining that, I think. But just I think you made some really good points with how confusing it could be sometimes with the five on five play and how even though defensively it still looks good, there's still this eight, seven and one team, I think could really be better. They just need to put some pieces together and just

go on some kind of run. All right, Julian, let's take our break here. And then we come back. We'll jump right back into it and close out the show strong. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. We're back here on the HockeyPedocast, joined by Julian McKenzie. We are doing our Ottawa Center's deep dive. You mentioned that consistency before we went to break, right?

And I do think that's an important point to make here. It's obviously something that I think young teams on the way up generally struggle with. it's a big differentiator between the have-nots and the halves in this league, right? Like the teams that are just so entrenched and comfortable with their playoff spots, they find ways to stack together stretches. And also, I think most importantly, the teams just don't typically give away or give up valuable points along the way. And I think through this season,

we've seen a little bit of that from the senators where they have that game against the blues where they just completely annihilate them. They lose the game in MSG, but that was an Igor Shasturkin masterclass, right? Like go back and watch. It wasn't just the 41 shots. There were so many high danger opportunities against a mere mortal. I was going to say a lesser goalie,

but really pretty much any other goalie in the league, that's probably a comfortable win. They come home and they just shut out the cracking. And all of a sudden, it's like, all right, we're feeling great about ourselves. And then you follow it up with my opinion, a complete stinker, one of their worst games this year against the Sabres,

a team you're theoretically competing with on this same trajectory. So you want to get away from that. But it's also easier said than done. Like I don't know if you'd agree with this, but I find that in the NHL, one of the toughest hurdles to clear for teams that are in this spot is exactly that, right? Think of the Sabres the past couple years, certainly the ducks, the blue jackets, like all of these teams that have been rebuilding for a long time,

finding that level of like legitimacy and consistency along the way is incredibly tough to do anyone on a given night of these teams. can put together a performance you're like, all right, let's just kind of capture that and distill it and do that again. And we're going to feel good about our game. And then the next time you watch them, it's an entirely different effort and result. And so I think that's something that the senators are still kind of striving for and trying to find because I do find that you just go and watch that game against the Leafs or even the Bruins one, but especially the Leafs game. And it's like, all right, that form is something to legitimately build off of and work with. I know the Leafs didn't have Matthews, but you just watch the general team speed. from the senators and the pace they were operating at. And that's reminiscent of a lot of the top teams the league. And I think that can be sort of tantalizing, I guess. But I do feel like it's something that you'd obviously rather have than not.

Yeah. Dude, if they find a way to do that on a consistent basis and they put together some winning streaks, it's going to change the perception around this team, in particular in their home market. I know we kind of mentioned at the beginning of the show. But like that once they find a way to pull, put that together. The Ottawa senators are going to look truly like a playoff team. I think right now people might still feel like, okay, they have some pieces together.

If they come together, it could just really work. They're just at that point. They're almost there. I know before the break, I mentioned those games where they were just right there in Vegas, a little bit in Colorado, but more so in Vegas, I think. Against Philadelphia, that's going to count as that as well. But that game against Toronto, I was there for that game. Toronto did not push back at all in that game,

but there's been times where, I mean, we saw it against Philly, where a team might not push back or they're just not playing well, but if they just hang around, they get a goal off, and all of a sudden they find ways to get in. That's why I think that Toronto game, even if the Leafs didn't push back,

that's still a big win. And that's something that I think for the identity of this team, they, you look at that as an example. And even some of those guys, in particular, Noor Greger, we're saying that this team's really close to playing at that style. And what's notable about this team too,

you mentioned some of the other teams they're coming up against. And even in particular, some of the younger teams, like an Anaheim for an example, I get it. They have maybe some veterans like Alex Coulorne, but this Ottawa Senators team in particular this offseason, they double down on the fact that, you know, they want to make the playoffs.

And they got guys like a Michael Amario or David Peron who know what, or Nick Jensen could fall into this too, who have that vener. veteran experience who are able to insulate a core and help them get to that next level they need to get. This season, I think, is going to be, I mean, in terms of the development of that young core, well, I don't think it's an absolute make or break year. I think it's imperative that this team takes a step forward.

Like, I don't, like, if this team is not competitive by the end of the season, like, even if this team somehow misses the playoffs, but they're right. they're knocking on the door. Like they're kind of like what Detroit did last year, where up until the final week of the season, they were in it and they had a chance to make the playoffs. If Ottawa was not that, then you have to do some serious soul searching.

I think even if they're in the point I just mentioned, you still have to do some tweaks here and there and everyone's going to be disappointed, but you know you made a progression beyond just languishing in the basement and having your season end in November or December to that point. But, I mean, we could pull up the standings if we want for the Atlantic Division, but like,

no one's really running away with that division. And if you're the Ottawa Senators and you could find a way to piece some wins together and be consistent and win some of those games, you put yourself in a position where you are, you're high above some of those teams in that division. And you're not letting anybody else get that one up on you. I really think that, you know, they don't need to,

I'm not saying they need to go on a Winnipeg Jets-esque run where they're just the best team in the league over the first. first 15 or 16 games of the year. But I just think for this team in terms of consistency, in terms of them just putting things together, it's going to be a lot tough to do now with the schedule they have for the end of the month. Just they, I think a winning streak of some sort, just putting stuff together. That does a lot for that team.

That does a lot for the morale of that organization going forward. It's easier said than done again, especially with Carolina, Edmonton, Vegas coming up. Like, that's tough. but also if they found out to do it against those teams, what are we going to say about the Ottawa senators? That's going to be really interesting.

Yeah, well, I think the game against the Bruins in Boston was very instructive for me because I feel like we've just generally been waiting for this changing of the guard in the Atlantic, right?

Because the top teams have been there for so long, specifically in the Bruins and Lightning case and the cores are getting older and the teams have gone, and thinner along the way because of cap restrictions and they've just been bleeding talent and haven't necessarily been able to replace it along the way. And we've kept waiting for years for this to happen, right? And then last year it plays out and it's like, oh, well, the Bruins

made it again and they made it into the second round and we didn't get fresh blood into the playoffs there. Then you watch that game and it really felt like two ships kind of going in opposite directions, right? Like I know it was a close game. You wind up going overtime to Bruin salvage a point out of it, but just watching the sort of general speed the two teams were playing at and operating, it's like, all right, this should be the case based on the way they're constructed. And the fact that the senators looked at the way they did is something that I would latch onto as like, this is the direction it's heading in. This is what you need to hold on to. You're talking about the playoffs. Dom's model still has them at about 45% to make the playoffs.

Micah's model at hockey biz has them with a 91 point projection, which is eighth in the east. And I think that's about right. Like if I just look at the landscape right now in the east, I'd say that there's four teams in the metro that have separated themselves, right? And that's the hurricanes, the Rangers, the capitals and the India and the New Jersey Devils certainly. And then in Atlantic, you've got the Panthers up top and then you've got the lightning and the Leafs. And I feel like beyond that in the east, that eighth spot has been as available as I can really ever recall it being because I'm I'm high. skeptical that this Bruins team is going to be able to turn this season around based on the personnel they have and the way they've looked and you watched them last night against Dallas and

they just got completely outclassed and stomped by that star's team on the road and so all of a sudden I know there's going to be a lot different teams that have a say in this like the islanders just never want to go away they're just incredibly resilient to just kind of hanging around and even when they lose so stubborn at least get a point out of it like they just love going overtime and then taking their chances there. The sabres will see with them, the Red Wings as well. But I do feel like if I were making a case for any of those fringe teams that seize that opportunity and take that spot, despite some of the concerns we still have that are clearly

lingering with the senators, I feel like they have the best foundation in terms of what I've seen from them to build on moving forward. Whether they will obviously remains to be seen. I get why people would be skeptical because how many times we've been told this was going to be the year it happens and it hasn't been the case. But as I said off the top, just watching it, I feel like it looks a little bit different and it actually seems very viable in my opinion this year as opposed to being some sort of an offseason pipe dream where we pronounce that they won the off season and all of a sudden are going to take this massive leap that never comes to fruition.

We're basically just sitting here waiting for the senators to be good. Better yet, you can replace the senators with the Sabres and the Red Wings because those three teams, I think we're in the exact same spot in the Atlantic. There are teams who have rebuilt over the last how many seasons. They're trying to make the playoffs after assembling a good glut of young talent. And now they're looking to make that jump. The problem over the last few years has been, well, the teams themselves, not making those jumps. But as you mentioned, the teams at the top of Florida, Tampa Bay, or Toronto, a Boston.

They've been gatekeeping. But like, I don't know if Detroit is necessary. I know that Detroit Buffalo and Ottawa right now are more or less at the same spot. I don't know if Detroit is going to make that jump this year. I know Buffalo got the better of Ottawa earlier this year. I'm still not completely convinced the Sabres are ready to make the playoffs just yet. They might need one more year to do it. I think if Boston falls off, if someone else in that metro,

I mean, I'm not as crazy about the New York Islanders, but they're stubborn. They find ways to hang in these games. And man, Patrick Waugh, just as a coach for that team, it seems like he's working with this team. but I totally see the Ottawa senators at this point getting in as a wild card. At the beginning of the year, it made sense to me that the devils,

the hurricanes, and the Rangers were going to be good enough. I kind of saw, I wasn't really sure, to be honest with you about the Washington Capitals. I kind of thought that they were going to be a little bit too dated to put themselves in that conversation, but not only are they in a wildcard spot as we speak,

Alexander Ovechkin is turning back the clock one last time for that goal scoring record. The Washington Capitals look like a team. that could make the playoffs as well. And yeah, that might make it a little bit difficult. So that might mean for the Ottawa senators, yeah, someone in that Atlantic division has to fall off. And I'll say this about the Leafs. They're not the same kind of team with pace or run and gun style that we've seen before.

They're clearly trying to play this like playoff hockey style that makes them slower. This is just me. Even if they have Austin Matthews in the lineup, I'm not sure about other regular season. matchups going forward. In the playoffs, maybe when things slow down a little bit, that's a different story. But in the regular season,

I think if you're the Ottawa senators, I think you can feel good about that first game against them and say, hey, you know what? Even if they didn't have Austin Matthews, we know that if we can play our style, we can hang into every single, every single matchup

against that team for the rest of the regular season. And if you're able to pick up points against the Toronto, against the Boston Bruins. We didn't even mention the fact that one of the very first games of this year the Ottawa Senators played. They played well enough and beat the Florida Panthers. They had to hang in there for half the game,

but they beat the Florida Panthers. There are teams at the top half of this division that the Ottawa Senators have taken points off of in the early going of this year. And that should be motivation enough than to empower them through the rest of this season. I think their playoff team, they just need to show it and prove it to everyone.

And obviously make some improvements in some of the categories we kind of mentioned a little bit earlier in regards to inslaught chances and making sure their defense is up there. The goal tenings got to be more consistent. Fine. But if they play well enough, I think, you know, it would be a welcome change for what we've seen in terms of normalcy in that division. Yeah, that's why I think that this upcoming week in particular, as you mentioned, between against the hurricanes, oilers, and then Vegas consecutively is going to be a very fascinating measuring. stake regardless of the results or how many points you get out of that. Just seeing the way they look against those teams is going to be very telling to me. So I can't wait to watch that.

Obviously, it'll help, as you mentioned, the consistency from the goaltending. We've seen the highs and lows in it so far. I don't think that's necessarily unique to them. We see that around the league. It's like goalie performance is incredibly volatile. And I just did a show with Sean Shapiro, where we were talking about this trend where shots across the board are down in the league right now for a variety of reasons. And we've seen that in these senators games, right,

where we mentioned in the Bruins game, how long Allmark went without facing a shot, the game against the flyers, the fact they had four shots and nearly, what, 35 minutes or hockey or whatever, depending on who you talk to in the goalie community, opinions can differ and vary, right? It's like for certain goalies, going that long without a shot can be incredibly tricky, and then all of a sudden you face a high danger one and you're not really as sharp as you've been. And so you could make an argument that's what did Allmark in in this most recent game. But obviously, I think they just need more from them. I believe they're 22nd or something in the league right now in team save percentage.

And so you'd like to see that improve, especially with the defensive metrics that I mentioned earlier. But I do believe in Linus Allmark. And so if you're going to bet on that happening, I feel like they're in a better position to receive those types of goaltending results and they maybe have been in the past. I know, like, it's funny you mentioned that exact example of. you go through a couple of minutes where you don't get a shot on net and then you get a high danger chance that kind of you know you're not ready for that literally happened to lean a sawmark against the Philadelphia Flyers it was at that point in the second period where it was like the shot count was 27 to

4 in favor of the senators and the Flyers call a timeout and like in 10 in real minutes like 10 minutes at least from that time out on the penalty kill the Flyers get this like chance in close on Lena Sawmark and he has to make this pad save. And that should have been like the save of the night that everyone talks about. But just for whatever reason, just these shots coming at him, like the puck is dripling by him. And it's, he wasn't up to task, I think, in that game. And it's, it comes at an interesting time because what, like a little over a week ago,

he got asked about where his game is at and he said, I don't know. And since then it's just been, we've been kind of just looking at his game just wondering like, hey, is it there? Is he feel good about it against Toronto? It looked, he looked good. He looked solid. He was joking around with us. He was saying, I'm not sure my game is that yet.

Or at least I thought he was. And then the game on Thursday goes the way that it does. Ultimately, I think he could still get his game back. It's just a matter of just, he's got to do the job. I did like how he responded after that last game where he said, you know what? The son's going to come up, you know, spend time of my family. and then move on to Carolina. He pulls a Ted Lasso and says,

mind of a goldfish. But yeah, I think because of the fact it's the first quarter of the season, he still has that benefit of a doubt. And it's one thing if I think him getting that shutout against Toronto really helped him because he's had more games where he's allowed five goals on net

versus a shutout this year. But showing that he can play at a high level and do what he needs to do to be a top goalie in this league, he's shown that at different points this year. It's just, again, that's been the theme of this podcast, just has to do it over and over and over again. Yeah, one final shout here before we do our signouts and get out of here, you mentioned high level performance.

I did want to give some love to Josh Norris, right? Because this is a player who I had been not critical of, but I guess maybe more fair to say wary of last year. I remember around the trade deadline, we do our sort of fake trades or cooking up deals we'd like to see. And I had a bunch involving Josh Norris at the time. And it wasn't necessarily because I think he's a bad player. I just thought that you look at the contract and what, at the time he's owed four more years at just under $8 million. And the fact that he had missed 16, 74 and 32 games over the past three years, I thought if there was a team willing to buy on his

upside and his age and the fact that he's a proven goal scorer down the middle in this league, which is very hard to find. I would have been intrigued by that from their perspective. And he's come out this year, knock on wood, he's been healthy. He hasn't missed the game yet. He's got the seven goals, four primary assists. And I thought in particular, you watch that Flyers game. He was one of the more eye-popping players for me where I just mentioned how the

senators have generally struggled to get into those high danger areas and inner slot. He was living there. He was getting a bunch of opportunities. He looked incredibly dangerous. And so I think just having him healthy. performing at this level is obviously massive because then that takes the pressure off some of the other guys up front and allows them to construct this lineup in a much more logical way. And that's what we've seen them do so far where they're kind of going with duos, so to speak,

at least that top six. And it makes a lot more sense to me. Having a center depth of Tim Stutzla, Josh Norris, and Shane Pinto, it's a luxury. Like you have three young, capable, talented centers who, can provide offensively. And I mentioned with Pinto earlier, the defense he's been able to show. Josh Norris has that new to. And even in that Philadelphia game, Tim Stutzler,

I liked some of the defensive plays he was able to make in that game, hustling back, winning possessions back for himself, and trying to turn that into offense. Like, there was a lot to like from those centers throughout this season, in particular with Josh Norris. I think he's a really cool story to start off this year. You mentioned the fact that, you know, there was reason to be down on him with a contract,

and all the different injuries that he suffered. But through this point, he's been able to play every game. And what's been interesting with him too is he hasn't played tentatively. Like he's unafraid of blocking shots and putting himself in positions where if he could get hurt. But like he's doing everything he can to produce at a high level for this team. I've liked his game. And I know, I'm sure the Sends have enjoyed that too.

And I think just seeing him work well in that top six getting opportunities obviously on the PP1, and converting there. He's looked solid for this team. And ultimately for the senators going forward, as you rely on that top half part of your team to help you get to the playoffs, Norris has to be producing in order to get them there. And if you're able to get him to continue to keep him healthy and just take advantage of what he's able to bring you to this team,

when we look at this Ottawa Senator squad in the playoffs, which I still think they will, you're going to look at Josh Norris is a big reason why. All right. That's a great note for us to end on here, Julie. and I think a lot to chew on here. And I think, as we said, this week ahead for the senators will be definitely one to tune into and track. I'll let you plug some stuff here on the way out.

Let the listeners know where they can check you out. And what you've been working on. Check me out at The Athletic. I write all about the Ottawa senators. I love doing that. And subscribe if you haven't done so already. And subscribe to the Chris Johnston show wherever you get your podcasts. All right, buddy.

Well, looking forward to checking in with you later this season. and we'll see how things have progressed at that point. Keep up the great work. Thank you to everyone for listening to us. We're done for the week here in the PDOCast. Hope everyone has a great weekend. And we'll be back Sunday night with our usual Sunday evening shows with Thomas Drand. So looking forward to that.

In the meantime, thank you for listening to the HockeyPedioCast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.