The Hockey PDOcast - The Stakes Tiers for Contenders This Season

Episode Date: February 10, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to work through their 'Stakes Tiers', ranking all of the top contenders by how much they have on the line this coming postseason. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

since 2015. It's the Hockey PDOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEOCast. My name is Dmitra Filipovich and back here for another Sunday special with my good pal, Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on, man? Oh, I'm doing very well. Doing this remotely. The thing is the first one we've ever done, or maybe the second one we've done. We don't do them often when we're not together. We're not together today. It's the four nations break, so I've slipped away to get some sunshine. But really excited about the concept of today's special, very excited to use it to frame a conversation about those teams that matter the most for us and for hockey fans between now and, you know, April, May and June. I think it's a, yeah, it's a second one.

We did one where you were in a hotel room in Toronto when you were on the road covering the Canucks against the Leafs. You know what? We're not together in the same room physically, but we're always together in spirit. And I think the listeners can pick up on that with our banter. Here's the plan. So we thought it'd be fun to take a more kind of holistic view of the league. And I think it's very apropos. We just watched the Super Bowl in the NFL.

We watched the two top teams in their conferences play for the title. And so we've got this nice little break here with that Four Nations where there's no NHL games until a 20 second. And so it gives us a chance to sort of take stock where we're at kind of reflect what we've seen. so far. And so we're going to do the stakes tiers, which we kind of tease when we talked about the Jets towards the end of last week's Sunday special. And essentially, I think the way we're framing it, we don't have necessarily a concrete definition. It's more so kind of what each contender has on the line in terms of how pot committed they are this year, how devastating it would be if they fell short, kind of what this season represents to them in whatever their cycle,

that they're current, whatever stage of it they're currently in. And so, we can talk our way through how we want to slot the teams. We're going to go through the top 10 teams or whatever and just work our way through their individual cases and then maybe even towards the end after we've talked our way through them, we can sort of sort them in terms of who has the highest stakes this year

compared to who it doesn't necessarily matter as much, at least relatively speaking. Well, so can I flip this on its head and throw you a curveball here, Dim, and see if you can catch up to my off-speed stuff. the, how about this? Why don't we start at the bottom of the pyramid with what we can call like

the found money tier? And in this way, we can eliminate. You know what I mean? Those teams for whom this year, not that it doesn't matter, right? Because the thing about competitive windows, we always talk about like, this team's window, coincides with this guy's contract or what have you. But fundamentally, here's the truth.

You have a shot or you don't. And if you have a shot, you shouldn't act like your best shot comes next year. If you're good enough to win, I think you should be buying. I think you should be focused on it. Like the truth is, is that players get hurt.

Devastating injuries happen. Chemistry changes. It's hard to reload. You know, even if you think, oh, that guy who's got 15 goals for us on the third line and is, is, you know,

holding it down in tough minutes is, is ultimately replaceable. That's not a devastating loss for this team. There's no guarantee. that you land the right replacement. There's no guarantee that you'll have as much depth or have as much as many vibes or have as good health or have as good luck

as you're having at the moment. So, you know, I think it's a little bit overstated and I want to caption and qualify this, but I do think there are teams for whom this year is more like found money. It's like, and the team that I think comes to mind immediately among those top NHL teams is the Minnesota watch.

like the Minnesota Wild have had an excellent season right there 70 points in 56 games i mean clear top 10 in the league you know i think we look at them and think they're maybe the third or fourth best team in their division but i also think we know you know what what they are with kareil caprisov firing on all cylinders right we we know that they can as a result of having a guy who can be the best player on any night and in any given playoff series, you know, we know what they're capable of sort of as a team. And credit to them, right, they've been able to tread more than tread water. They've been able to remain competitive even with Caprizov out of the lineup for an extended stretch despite, you know, the MVP, holy cow, this guy is a freak level form that he

was showing early in the air. And yet we also know, sure, there's a top. a ticking clock with Caprizov only having two years remaining, but there's also a $14.7 million dead cap hit that will be reduced to 1.6 as a result of those suitor-perise buyouts year over year. Like they're freeing up 13 million in cap space from dead money, like dead money, pure dead money. Don't need to resign those guys. That's locked in, baked into the pie.

And when you consider sort of the youth, the amount that Minnesota has invested in the draft, how much we like some of those players coming, you know, you can't afford to waste these two years with Caprizov at nine. I think we recognize how big that number is going to be in a 95.5 or 103.5 million dollar cap environment. And yet, you know, no one's sweating paying Caprizov 14 million when he's one of the five best players on the planet. when he's healthy and in the lineup. For me, the Minnesota Wilder, like the definition of a team that's arrow is still pointing up regardless of how this season goes. So maybe it's helpful for us to start there in some ways because I don't think they're

the only team we can throw in this tier. And that sort of allows us to amp up as we work toward, you know, the pinnacle, those teams that are closest to like the last dance Bruins who, who better get it done this playoff. I'm really torn on this because in the one hand, I'm really glad you started us off with some off-speed pitches because I was worried heading into this exercise for our listeners playing drinking games at home how many times we'd reference fastballs. And so I'm glad we got that out of the way. On the other hand, from a hooking the audience SEO perspective, I'm not sure that starting with the Minnesota Wild is going to be necessarily the best way to get this exercise going. I'm glad you brought them up though, right? Because they're sort of a loss in the shuffle here

because I was thinking about the Colorado Avalanche for the purposes of exercise and I was kind of mapping their road ahead and I was like, all right, well, we're kind of staring down the barrel of a round one rematch from last postseason with the Dallas stars. And then you actually look at the standings

and for that to happen, even though we feel like it probably will down the stretch, they would actually have to leapfrog the Minnesota Wild who are ahead of them in the standings in third and the central. They're tied for sixth in the league in point percentage, despite a significant number of man games lost due to injury to key players along the way.

I'm with you that these sort of competitive windows or years to contend generally, I think, happen much sooner for teams than people are led to believe, right? Especially when you have a kind of a young team that's on their way up, we're like, oh, well, you know, if it doesn't happen this year, that's fine because it'll organically happen down the road. and sometimes you either miss your shot early on and it never actually materializes. And so I'm not sure that applies to them here. It is found money for them because they're doing this well despite all of the obstacles they've had in their way.

On the other hand, they've already used a lot of their ammo so far in terms of mapping ahead for the trade deadline in the trade they already made to acquire Eurecheck in terms of a future oriented move, right, to supplement their blue line. they don't have a ton of financial wiggle room this season until those buyout, uh, dead cap penalties come down from the 14.7 million you mentioned. And so I'm not sure for this year and for the purposes of the stakes this season, how viable it is for them to go on a long run yet they keep kind of hanging around. But I do think in the grand scheme of things, it's an important year for them because as you said,

heading into next year, a big storyline until we get any resolution to it is going to be, Carol Capriza of entering the final year of his deal and whether the organization can convince him to stick around at age 28 for essentially the rest of his NHL career. And so that's going to be a big story. I don't think necessarily the rest of the season is going to dictate it one way or another, though. And so it is foul money for them.

I thought you were going to go with the Washington Capitals because I think in my opinion, they're like the classic example of a foul money team at this point of the season. I mean, I agree with you that the Washington Capitals belong in this tier. Right. In some ways, you know, I mean, who is there? I guess, Chickren, Mangiopani are the key expirings that they've got to navigate around. That's, I think, relatively straightforward.

That money gets reallocated to Chickren. You keep him at all cost, given the fit, how good he's been, how unique he's been for them, even playing like forward on the power play in the bumper, like just. the way that he fits what they need and how they play. I mean, it's uncanny. I think he's vital. I think he's actually cemented himself as someone that I'd look at from a

capital's perspective as a core piece, like the clear error parent to John Carlson here. But, you know, the capitals are so unique because really it's the Ovechkin holding pattern here. Right? I mean, we do live in this world, I think from a from a Capp's perspective where you know in my view anyway getting Ovechkin the goal record

so that you can begin to reorient your team a little bit like you know just in terms of what they're best at how much of a machine they looked like when he was out of the lineup right um sort of what's happened to his pace right I think he does need to play down lineup at this point in his career I think by the time they get into the playoffs, you know, we talk about often the idea of once you get into a playoff series, how many, how many guys can actually hang at the speed of your opponents? And the capitals, you know, are in this metropolitan where the hurricanes and the devils play at such pace that I do worry a little bit that Ovechkin can get scripted out at five on five in a playoff series, which is awkward, especially, I think,

And I do think it's awkward while you're a team that's still chasing that goals mark. I feel like once that milestone is out of the way, it can almost be a little bit more about like hockey again. And it's less of a problem if on some nights it's like, okay, Ovechkin's going to play fourth line minutes for us five on five. He's still PP1. He's still a super valuable contributor because of his unique power forward style and his ability to break games as a shooter. but, you know, we're not going to lean on him as a top of the lineup piece five on five. And, you know, he's not going to touch the ice three on three. And certain things that I do think are in their best interests from a like narrow winning each game sort of perspective if they're going to maximize what they are.

So I agree with you. And, you know, Ovechkin's got two years left on his deal. I think that matters here. They're so young. They've really kind of reset, right? I mean, we're really at the point where Ovechkin and Carlson aside, you know, most of these guys are late 20s as opposed to early 30s. So I do think they've got a little bit of runway. I do think they belong very much in this tier where you can take a wider view.

And can I throw the Vegas Golden Knights back at you as a team that for me anyway, I think should be regarded similarly? Can I just put a bow on the Caps conversation before we move on to them? What I was going to say was I feel like how often whenever in any sport one of these historic individual accomplishments and chases is happening, it's like a player dragging their feet to the finish line on a bottom feeding team where it doesn't actually matter within the scope of the actual NHL. In this case, not only is he still scoring at a remarkable rate, but he's doing it on a team that's first in the league in point percentage with a plus 61 goal differential in their 55 games. I think part of the thing that, and I'm with you in terms of the postseason and that being a potential concern, they're very equipped, though, I think, to navigate and work around that because of their roster construction, because they are so deep in terms of their four lines that I feel like Spencer Carberry, who is a coach that I trust to push all the right buttons and pull all the right strings, is able and has the luxury of rolling those lines and square divvying out the minutes situationally, right? when you have a guy like Nick Dowd in his line or even a Lars Eller, you can afford to give Ovechkin the postseason, like very offensively oriented 80% offensive zone start shifts and kind of get away with it.

And so I think that's working on their favor. The other thing is they also have a bunch of dead money coming off the books. I know a lot of it is on LTIR, but there are consequences to that with Baxter and Oshy expiring and Kuznetsov's buyout as well. and we've spoken so glowingly all season about what we think of their pro scouting staff and their ability to keep integrating talent that they find from other teams

and maximizing them in their situation. So I feel like they're very well set up, but the reason why their foul money is because this has been just such a dream season and even the most class half full view of what they did last off season, I don't think would have anticipated them being in the spot they're in at this break.

So I think from this point forward, obviously they want to keep this going, But it's just, it is really foul money in that sense. Let's talk about the Golden Knights. Sorry, sorry, let me just, I want to pick up on one thing you said, because you talked about trusting Carberry to do it, and you described what you trust him to do. He's already done it.

Like 21 games since Oveckin returned, okay? He's got 34 defensive zone faceoffs and seven defensive zone starts since he returned versus 111 offensive zone faceoff. and 69 offensive zone starts. And even with that, right? The capitals have been out attempted by almost 60 in his minutes and actually outscored five on five. So my point is like they're already there.

They're already there in doing that. And it's still, you know, one of those things where Ovechkin's line five on five is a drag on their on their even strength game, which again, he's producing enough and it matters enough to the franchise and to all of us that it's fine for now. but I do think it's one of those things where I think honestly for them the stakes are get the record get the record so that you can

in some ways move forward in the healthiest way possible as a franchise I think they're really good and they're well positioned because they can play so many different styles depending on their opponent and depending on the matchup in any given series and if you do believe that

the postseason hockey is just different from regular season hockey in terms of space being at a premium and all that, just being able to throw the Zeus from Belarus out there and PLD and Tom Wilson and all these guys and just wreck havoc and just like shrink the ice surface. It's a pretty cool thing that they're working with. The Golden Knights, 3-8 and 3 stretch before a couple of nice wins on the road in New Jersey and Boston. The thing that I wanted to note about, I'm not sure if you caught this on Saturday. It was a busy night around the NHL, but they played a matinee game in Boston.

they come back after being down early by a couple goals. And they had this really cool sequence, in my opinion, that illustrated why there's such a dangerous team, have the second best power play in the league behind Winnipegs. And they get a goal taken away that would have put them up late in the final two minutes on a questionable goal interference review, in my opinion. And then they just come right back and 20 seconds later, score again on the power play.

And I just thought it was such a badass sort of way for them to respond to that. And that power play is so devastating. The sport logic metrics have their defensive environment as an incredibly good one, which isn't surprising under Bruce Cassidy and what they've been for the past couple years. And so I know people have been skeptical about this team because they've been sort of outshooting their underlying metrics this season. But I do find despite that stretch that we just saw from them that they have a lot of very interesting pillars, I guess, that their teams built on that could pose a lot of problems in the postseason. I think Vegas belongs in any list of the five or six best teams in hot. like the five or six teams that we look at and think, man, they have a real chance to win the Stanley Cup this season. You know, what's sort of been interesting is that this stretch that they've been struggling through since January 1, results-wise, I actually think has been maybe their most impressive.

Like they've looked the most like the Golden Knights. It's just been a lot of those sort of one goal games where they can't get that. next goal or where the other team gets the next goal a little bit too easily. You know, a lot of their games right now, it's like Vegas is playing recognizable Vegas Golden Knights hockey. And I mean, like from years past, they've looked like themselves vintage, just, you know, domineering physically, controlling play. And then the results just haven't quite been there. Their, you know, their goaltending hasn't been up to snuff, frankly. Like, it hasn't been as, you know, Aiden Hill's had better stretches.

Whatever, I trust that Aden Hill will be on his game or at least serviceable enough come playoff time. And then they're not getting bounces. I mean, like five on five since January 1st, Jack Eichel and Shea Theodore lead the team in scoring with nine points. That's across 18 games. So they're having some trouble, you know, getting the ketchup out of the glass bottle, as it were, of late. I don't think that they're a team that's going to struggle with that when the chips are down, when it matters. So I actually would suggest that in some ways, this run of meeker results has brought out the underlying form that we're looking for from Vegas, just detached from the sorts of results that they were having earlier in the air. They're playing materially better hockey.

They're actually looking like a more imposing team despite sort of how the how the wins and losses have fallen against them across the last six weeks. And for me, they're still an elite team. But from a stakes perspective, one thing I do think is worth noting is I think we think about Vegas as being this old group. You know, this like old team. And look, that's not without cause. You know, Alex Pietrangelo is still vitally important to that team. He's 35.

He's taking the four nations face off off. which is not something that any player does lightly. We know what Mark Stone's injury history looks like, and he's on the other side of 30 and Tomash Hurdle too. But, you know, Eichel's still 28. Barboshev's in his late 20s, for the most part, you know, and some of their winger, wingers who played so well for them this season,

obviously Dorofiev sort of top of that list, but I think you can add Alexander Holtz, who I've been really impressed with, especially as a sort of two-way contributor this season. you know, those guys are in their young 20s and on defense too, you know, like that Haniffin trade, I think made them, you know, in much the same way that like bringing in Kachuk and dealing Hubert Owen and Uyghur sort of gave them some runway, the Florida Panthers, I mean, I do think that Hanofin deal for Vegas, you know, sort of in some ways

gave them a guy Eichel's age to kind of build around for a three or four year stretch. I just, I look at this Golden Knights team and as much as I, expect them to swing something that blows our minds in terms of bringing it a star player out of absolutely nowhere or to win one of those weird sweepstakes that we didn't even know they were lurking around in just because that's their MO. I do think that this is a team you know that is locked into being roughly this good over a multi-year window and I just what's the pressure point for them? You know, who's the like key expiring? guy do a raise other than Nick Hague and I guess Aden Hill but I mean is Aden Hill even

performed at the level where you're looking at him as an $8 million goalie you know so I just feel like Vegas is a you know not a keep your powder dry team or anything but a but a team that I think can afford to continue to think globally um it you know in much the same way that they've done since their existence right like since they since they since they they decided to soar the immediate benefit of the fantasy process to accrue futures. And in so doing, built a win now team that made the Stanley Cup final. Like, they're very much against straddling that in a way that only Vegas seems to be able to do year after year. Well, and to your point, they've gone back to their foundation of they've given up the fourth through as expected goals.

No team gives up more inner slot shots allowed. And they've done this in a stretch where they haven't had William Carlson, who's out for the Four Nations as well. and we've spoken about what a difference he makes for their lineup construction. I'm not sure. Like I didn't have them necessarily in this tier. I had them a bit higher in terms of importance for this season, just because you are looking at the fact that next year, it's going to be the last year of Jack Eichol's $10 million deal.

And they've positioned themselves pretty much every year since their inception into this spot where they expect to compete. And so when you're in that spot, the stakes are pretty high. But I'm with you in the sense that we've seen from them that they're ruthless, right? They're not going to be beholden to the NHL norms of becoming attached to their current situation or their current players they have relationships with.

They're always proactive in consolidating their pieces and trying to upgrade or improve wherever they can, right, turn two or three players that are nice at medium of salaries into one top player. And so that's probably not going to happen unless there is some sort of LTIR situation at this point for this season. But heading into the off season,

and they're down their first round picks, but they do have guys like a Nick A, who's a 26-year-old RFA that a lot of teams would love, or a Nick Waugh, of course, I don't think they want to move them, but at that $3 million salary as a bit of a piece for them where it's like, all right, he's playing third-line center or something for us.

He could probably play higher up the lineup for another team than might value more, and so we're going to try to swing for the fences here. They're going to have options available to them, and we should have confidence that they're going to explore that. So in that sense, I do feel like it is found money from the perspective of even if it doesn't work for them this year, they're going to be very aggressive in the offseason about remodeling their team and not just getting stuck in this spot where,

all right, we lost in the first round for back to back years. This is just our fate from now on until we rebuild. They're not going to do that. Right. And so in that sense, I do feel like that fits them for this category. So I think that's a good shout by you. Yeah, I guess the one thing I would say, though, is I do think the stakes of, winning the Pacific

and ducking, well, I guess not because you probably get Colorado or Minnesota, most likely Colorado, if you win the Pacific. So maybe you want to face the Kings. Never mind. I was going to say, I feel like it matters to win first in the Pacific,

but actually now that I think about it, there's a real chance that second wildcard team, you know, if we assume that neither club catches the Jets, which I don't think will happen. Yeah, I think, I think there's a chance that that's actually where you want to be. You want to be second in the Pacific, which, by the way, that sucks.

We never want to be talking like that as we get into a stretch run. Well, and the thing for them, I mentioned that Eichel is hitting the final year of his deal next season. They essentially have this kind of quote unquote core, I guess, of Petrangelo Stone and Carlson, who are in their 30s, who have two years left after this one, right? And so I feel like they're going to explore everything in terms of if someone shakes loose or something becomes available for them to turn whatever pieces they have into more down the road. I had, do you have anyone else for this tier on your list? Because I had like this next step of teams that I think are really good this season, but it isn't necessarily make or break for them because I think there's a timeline moving forward that kind of stretches it out for them. and I had four teams in that tier essentially.

Okay, give it to me. Okay, I had the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Carolina Hurricanes, the New Jersey Devils, and the Colorado Avalanche. We can break them all down one by one. Which one of those catches your eye the most or you think is the most intriguing? Yeah, I mean, I think the Devils are the team that most belongs in the found money tier of those teams you mentioned, just because there is no better example of the you know, oh, well, they have a multi-year window. You know, the devils are good enough to win it now and should absolutely carry themselves.

Like there are huge stakes this season because they have it. They have it. They're good enough now. And but other than the ticking clock on Markstrom's age, which doesn't really concern me just given frankly how athletic he is and how athletic he's remained. he's already in his mid-30s, right? So for me, they're the team, though, where, you know,

I mean, other than Luke Hughes expiring and getting a raise, which is like more than covered by the lift in the salary cap anyway, they just feel like the team that, you know, of the group of four you mentioned, I think they feel most like the team that if they were to be deeply reluctant to part with significant futures, for example, ahead of the deadline, we'd be like, yeah, makes sense. It makes sense. I still would love to see them be aggressive. I still think they're good enough to swing, but I also think that's like the template team that has, you know,

what is it? The heeshire and Hughes sort of a three year window, right? That's always what we've thought about is their window. I still think it makes sense to frame it that way. You know, that, that to me is a multi-year horizon for them through which they can realistically, incredibly sort of operate. I wanted to revisit them with you here because at the holiday break, we did our big bear versus bull case for each contender. And at the time, we were glowing, talking about them and how well they were playing at the time, right? And since then, they've had this seven, nine, and three stretch. Their only wins have come against the Cracken, the Lightning and overtime, and then the Bruins, Flyers, Penguins, and Habs twice. And they've been without his year, the past six games,

Markstrom's been out of course. Sieganthaler got hurt most recently, so they've had injuries. But the one lingering concern we had even at that moment was their forward group. And I feel like that's kind of put that under the microscope here. In those 17 games that I just mentioned since the new year, they've scored just 14 goals total in the 500 minutes. Jack Hughes and Eco Hishier haven't been on the ice for. So they've been incredibly top heavy in the last six games since Hissier got hurt. Jack Hughes has been on the ice for 14 of the 17 goals.

they've scored as a team. It's essentially a one-line team right now in terms of offensive generation. I think the good news for them is they're still in a fine spot because of the state of the metro around them. They've got an eight-point cushion on CBJ for third in the metro. They're only two points back of the canes for home ice in round one in that potential matchup. The other thing they have worked in their favor is they have that 5.5 million in deadline cap space and they have three second round picks.

And we've seen in the past that the type of player they need in particular, which is sort of a not conventionally elite winger that can still make a world of difference for them generally goes for like a second round pick and then another mid-round pick for example, right? It's not necessarily a premium asset that goes for firsts and top prospects. And so I feel like there's any number of options

they can entertain. I would love he's not an expiring. He's got another year after this season, but in Oliver Bjork Strand would be incredibly nice for them. Oh, man. You go on like any player like that. I was going to say Jason Zucker, who's really like the poor man's Oliver Bjork Strand.

I would aim a little bit higher for them because I do have aspirations. I agree. I'm obviously without breaking the bank, but I think something reasonable that still checks a lot of boxes. Regardless though, I think it's important for them more than anyone maybe to scale for not just this year or even next year, but the next five or six as we've spoken about with this group.

And that's why I never took them seriously as a J.T. Miller landing spot back when we were breaking down potential fits and suitors. because this value they have of Jack and Nico his share at 15.25 for the next two seasons after this one. But even just Jack Hughes himself, right, $8 million for him for his age 24 to 28 seasons, that's the type of thing that gives you a competitive edge that allows you to potentially construct a 2022 Colorado Avalanche, right? In terms of the contract they had Nathan McKinnon on and how they were able to surround him with talent. And so I feel like for them, I generally don't love when teams kind of try to have their cake. needed to in this way, but for them it actually makes sense where the team is good enough right now

that you seriously entertain having a long competitive run this year, but also I think you need to really kind of be disciplined about keeping an eye for the future because you do want to set yourself up with this team as it's currently being shaped for more kicks of the can than just this season or even next season. Yeah. Yeah. So the devil's for sure, I think, belong in the cooling your jets or found money tier, although, you know, they, they've been imposing or should have been imposing for the last three seasons now. Should we save the other three and get into it in the next segment? Yeah.

Let's take our break here. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O. cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right. We're back in the Hockeycadio cast with Thomas Trans, on our Sunday special. We're doing our stakes tiers for this season. Tom, before we went to break, we were talking about this tier that I had of the devils, the lightning, the hurricanes, and the abs. we talked about the devils. Do you want to rattle through the other three teams real quick

before we get to sort of that top, whatever, five or so that we have, that we haven't talked about yet? Yeah, let's do it. I think the lightning are a team that I find fascinating because in some ways we feel like they're the same team just on sort of the back nine, but still imposing from when they made three consecutive Stanley Cup finals this decade. and yet, you know, I actually think a lot of the work to reset what that core looks like and feels

like has kind of already happened, you know, just because Ryan McDonough is in his second stint and, you know, obviously Kutrov's on the other side of 30 and Hedman 2, you know, but in a lot of ways, the way this team feels when you're watching them, you know, it's still Kutrov's team. Like, don't get me wrong, but there's that layer beneath what Kuchner. and Point and Gensel do where you've got Sorrelli and Paul and, you know, some of those guys were Hagle. Some of those guys were around for some or all of their cup runs. But I don't know, man. Maybe it's just me, but this team feels pretty fresh to me when I watch them night to night.

They are. They're an interesting spot. They went 5'0 and 1 to enter the break and then all of a sudden. There are only two points behind the leaves for second and Atlantic, only five points behind Florida for first with two games in hand. You talk about the importance of seating for a previous conversation. That one feels incredibly important in terms of getting out of that matchup. For the year, their offense has been incredible, right?

They had a bit of a dry stretch there recently, but still second and goals. Third and expected goals. Third, inner slot shots. Their fifth on the power play, 19 of their 30 wins this year or 19 or 31 or whatever have come by three or more goals. The only team with more sort of decisive victories have been the Winnipeg Jets. I feel like they're going to benefit a lot from this upcoming break because Kutrov has been such a workhorse for them. He's been logging 23 minutes or more consistently for them here recently.

And so he's going to get two full weeks off without playing hockey, which I feel like is going to be huge for him. They haven't had J.J. Moser, of course, for the last two months. They stand to benefit, in my opinion, and the reason why I didn't have them as huge stakes for this season, they stand to benefit as much as any team, in my opinion, from the cap spiking over the next three years. because they've got Kutrov, Point, Gensel, Hegel, Sorrelli, Paul, Hedman, Vasilevsky, all signed through at least 2027. And so that leaves them in this spot

where they have about 81 million committed next year to nine forwards, five defensemen and a goalie. They can legitimately entertain the idea of just spending a significant portion of that on one or two really good players and just adding to the group they have, right? And so I feel like that is incredibly enticing. I think they need to, even when Moser comes back,

figure out the blue line because you watch them against some of the better forechecking teams in the league. And I know Chernig and McDunner have been a really good pair for them this year. Headman, when he's played especially with Moser, has really good numbers. But they're so slow in terms of their foot speed that you can kind of get them stuck in the mud at times by just forechecking the living daylights out of them. And then they've made egregious mistakes and they just don't look like a shell of the team that they are at their best. And so they're going to need to figure that out, especially if they're going to play the Leafs or the Panthers in round one. I'm not sure that's something you can address like this in season.

It might be an off-season move. And that's why I don't really have this as sort of a do-or-die season for them. Yeah, finding a way to do it, I think would pay dividends, especially because, you know, I don't think the Leafs have a lot of get-up and go. Right? I think they play slow, generally speaking. Yeah, but when they've played head to head this year, they've given them a lot of trouble in exactly what I said,

just getting rid of the puck, dumping it in, and then just causing mistakes from. that lighting blue line. And so I feel like that would be a problem in a seven game series. Well, but my point is, is like, you get a top four capable Pock mover, easier said than done. And I think you can probably go that probably, a little probably goes a long way to fixing the matchup issue specific to the Leafs. And then, you know, I think we, we kind of somewhat agree that the Panthers could use an additional player of that ilk too. So you probably want to get the best guy he can get on the market to sort of snooker your division rival there.

So yeah, I mean, look, I think you're right, though. Tampa's really well positioned. And one other part of this, Vasilevsky looks, has really turned back the clock since the new year. Like the last six weeks, he's been a monster. And, you know, we very rarely see teams get goalied these days in the NHL. I feel like used to be, you see five teams a night get goalied. Now it's maybe a team a week, maybe a couple.

But at the end of the day, you go into any playoff series with Vasilevsky. I think you feel pretty comfortable if you're Tampa Bay. So, no, I think that's, I think that's, they're in a good tier. Maybe just because of headman and Kuturov's age, we put them like one tier up, stakes-wise from the other teams we've discussed. Well, as well, and it's probably directly linked to that two straight row on exits, right, since their three straight Cup final appearances.

John Cooper's been there since 2013 to put that into perspective. That's nine years longer than the fifth longest tenured coach in the league right now. And I believe he's under contract again for next year. It feels like he's increasingly

been shorter and shorter fuse on the bench in terms of getting outwardly irritated. And I expect that he'll be there as long as especially sort of this Kuchrov core is there. I wouldn't expect any sort of dramatic. move, but just in terms of the stakes of building and continuing to move in the right direction as opposed to stagnating and just continually losing in round one, despite all they've accomplished.

I feel like that is probably important to them to at least have at some point here over the next couple of years. The hurricanes and the aves, it's fitting that we have them back to back here considering the trade they were obviously involved in recently. We've spoken a lot about them, especially when we broke down that trade, but do you have any other notes to add on them? I feel like obviously the abs have actually. gone into the mountaintop and won it all. But for the hurricanes, we'd like to see them stop

being this running joke in terms of plateauing in the postseason, predictably. And they've done a lot of stuff over the past year and a half to try to remedy that. This is obviously the first year with Eric Tulski as their actual official GM and sort of play caller. Yet, considering the cap space and how many assets they have, both in terms of cap flexibility this summer and picks and prospects, of course, it doesn't feel like even if they fall short again this year, it's going to be a tough look for them, but it doesn't feel like it's necessarily going to be a disaster. Can we just enjoy the incredible Carolina Ness of them acquiring Miko Raton, their team shooting percentage immediately going in the tank, and then Raton missing the final game before the

break and then putting up seven against the Utah Hockey Club. Like, there's just something so hurricanes about that sequence of events that we just have to like enjoy it as just being like, hey, maybe, maybe, you know, change up everything you do on the rush, acquire Taylor Hall and me, Goretton, and to give your offense, you know, this, this extra venom. And then have that sequence unfold that just makes me feel like, hey, maybe that's just hurricanes hockey. Maybe, maybe it's not even about how they play. Maybe it's just that there's nothing this franchise can do to avoid the most like comedic possible

bounce luck in hockey. There's an added layer to it. I believe he got hurt getting in the way of friendly fire from a shot from a defenseman on his own game. So the jokes write themselves. I mean, they can afford to take such big cuts at the draft in the pre-agency this year, right?

And so I feel like that's why the window is so open. And I just want to know, like, obviously when you're talking about players like Miko Ranton and Jake Gensel, like, you don't worry about term. You just want to get those guys locked up. And obviously, the hurricanes have had trouble locking those guys up in the past. But, you know, they also have lost Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesci and Jake Gensel and Miko Ranton in year after year.

And it doesn't matter. They keep coming in part because they allocate their cap space and shop so wisely in terms of the moves that they do make. So as much as the like stakes of the Rantanin and thing, Like, can they keep him? Can they extend him? You're going to hate that trade if you gave up natius. And rantan doesn't stay and on and on. Like, they're going to be fine.

They have a way of doing business clearly that relies on trying to recruit elite players, but also being self-confident enough in your process, that if you fall short, you don't worry too much about it. You can go out and do it again. And so I actually think the rantan and dynamic, and the will he or won't he aspect here. You know, not that, not that it shouldn't be discussed or be a talking point, but what team's better positioned to move past it if the puck doesn't bounce their way,

as it were, on a matter like this. I mean, that's what this team is set up to do. That's what their organization is set up to do and they do it better than anyone. And they're trying to fundamentally remodel their team and increase their risk profile and they've done that. So I'm not sure if it'll pay dividends the way they're seeking this year. but I feel like it's on the right path there and so they belong here. The aves,

I feel like they belong here just because they almost acknowledge it themselves with the trade they made, right? Where they buy themselves the extra year with NACIS. They cut some costs. They become more financially flexible. They get a bit younger. They get faster. They add a few extra assets in Jewry for cheap and the two draft picks

they got from Carolina and all of a sudden I still think they want to, if not this season, this offseason, turn middle stats, contract into a better fit at two C, it's someone that can actually play in that system to its full capability. They're probably or hopefully going to get at least some sort of resolution or closure or clarity on what to do with Gabriel Landisoggs, $7 million.

And so you don't want to count them out because we've seen how frightening that top line is now with Natchezus and what they did even on that back to back going into Edmonton. It's just a supernova. And that gives them a chance in any given night if they're just going to have that five-man unit out for 25 minutes. They have a 29-year-old Nathan McKinnon, a 26-year-old, Kail McCar. at the peak of their powers. So it's an important year in terms of not wasting another one of those because you don't

know how many you're going to get to enjoy. Yet at the same time, they kind of telegraphed how they feel about their own team. I feel like in terms of the move they already made. And I think it was a smart calculated risk and an important piece of sort of self-reflection or self-evaluation that teams would be well-suited to do more often. Yeah, they bought themselves time in addition to depth. And they need both because they don't have enough depth as it is. is as much fun as it is to watch that top end group dance,

all out dance at a million miles per hour on the ice, you know, for an extended stretch or an extended shift at night after night. It's also a problem for this team that they need those guys to do so much, right? And so, you know, I think there's a tell in there. And I think one that they kind of acknowledged, as you said,

of the Rattanan deal. Now help me, do we put the stars at the top end of this tier or into the next one where it actually this season is of much more significance? I think the season is of significance for the stars personally. I would put them in a tier up. You've got, you know, the truth is is when you sign a player as good as Robertson, who granted has not been, you know, at his, the apex version of himself this season. When you sign him to, you know, to a bridge deal, you start a clock. And so I think the moment you do that, right, the moment you take a guy who's produced at the level that Robertson has, right,

like a pretty consistent 30 plus goal guy with 40, you know, not as like an outside outcome, but as like, you know, I don't want to say a baseline expectation, but certainly well within a reasonable range of outcomes for him. the moment you sign a player at that level to a bridge deal, in my opinion, you start a clock, and that immediately sort of ups the stakes for your team. When you then fill out your roster with a guy as good as Wyatt Johnston, right, who's going to require an extension. He's an RFA without arbitration, right?

So it's not like he's got a huge hammer to use against you this summer, but nonetheless is not going to be an entry level value beyond this season. Maverick Bork's been a nice piece for them too, and he's in the same boat, although obviously a far less important and a player with far less leverage here. And then you manage to build out just a mess of depth. Now, Jamie Ben expiring and the cap going up will help without question. But like Matt Duchayne's been awesome for them. At three million, like Sam Steele's been awesome for them at 1.2. Like those guys are going to have markets, serious ones if they want. it um you know potential with with with with teams potentially offering years um so you know i do think

there should be some some assessment internally of the stars looking at it and just going okay we have uh just a we have a superstar level player who's on and we're on the clock with him we've got uh one of the best young centers in the league who's going to be more expensive after this year and we've got depth as like a cornerstone strength of our team and that's it's going to be hard to have as much of that beyond this season so we do have to take a pretty serious shot here especially with the way we've been knocking on the door for much of this decade so far especially after back-to-back wildcar final or west final appearances i guess the reason i brought that up in in terms of the move they just made sort of dictating how they feel internally in how they spent their money on

CC and Granlin as we spoke about last week. I feel like under Jim Nill, they're very comfortable taking this sort of pragmatic long-term view historically of kind of hanging around the top five to seven, keeping themselves viable, keeping themselves flexible. And then if things break, right, they can make the cup final like they did, for example, in the bubble, right? The issue is the past two years. We've seen them the limitations of that where they bump into the level Jack Icoe was playing

at two years ago in the West Final. And then last year, especially in that clinching game, where Connor McDavid just does something only he can. They don't have a player like that. He creates an absolutely outrageous goal, and that's enough to send Edmonton to the Stanley Cup final, right? There's so much uncertainty here for them. Opposite of what we said about Tampa,

where they do have to pay Wyatt Johnson coming up. They do have to pay Jason Robertson and Harley the following summer. Mero Hayeskin-in's knee injury and the level of uncertainty that creates this year for them, especially with the state of that blue line, that I don't think necessarily if they don't win it all this year, it's not necessarily a make or break season from that standpoint because they still have runaway here.

But I'm with you in terms of how close they've gotten that it would be a disappointment if you keep stagnating and falling short or even taking a step back. Yeah. Yeah. And I know we want to be efficient and cover all these other teams. So I think you said that well. We got to move into the teams, though,

for whom this is life and death now, right? Yeah, we have four teams. left. Yep. Yeah. And so, I mean, do you want to start with Florida or Toronto or do you want to group them together? Because in some ways, I think the pressures are somewhat similar, right? In that you're talking more than anything like you've got core groups that are relatively set. Right? In Toronto, you've got a lot of certainty on Neelander and Matthews. I think we expect Marner to stay. I think we expect Tavares to stay, albeit at a reduced number. Right. But, you know, the, the, the mariner, the nyes of it all, right, does still create, I think, some pressure on that team. And likewise in Florida with with Eckblad and Bennett, you know, Florida's got tons of runway with Lundell and Reinhardt and Barkov and Kachuk all locked up forsling, all locked up long term. I mean, no one's, no one's worried about this Florida Panthers team where you, honestly, Florida's, I still look at that Panthers. roster sometimes and then look at, you know, other teams and specifically the Canucks, because I'm often thinking about the Canucks. And I go, how do you even get to where they're at from just like the amount of talent on their roster from where like a middling playoff team is? Right. I mean,

they're still that team. And they'd be that team even if they couldn't keep either of Eckblatt or Bennett, which I'm not sure will be the case. But I do think in both cases, you've got a fair bit of certainty. It's not like this is a do or die season, but just the way that their contracts are sort of told out, I still think there's a little bit of added wind now pressure. Do you see them as sort of twins in this exercise like I do? I do in very different ways, of course, based on the baggage or lack of their over, the postseason success they come in with. Playoff history, yeah. Yes, I do think for the Panthers, the reason why they belong in a top tier here beyond anything is just we know how historically difficult it is to go back to back,

but also what a feat it would be to make it the three straight Stanley Cup final. And so whenever you're this close on the doorstep of it, I feel like it is important just in terms of the continuity of what you just did and what that would represent and what an accomplishing it would be. There are very well set up, though, because not only do they have all those guys under contract, but I'm probably in isolation here maybe in terms of my opinion. opinion on both Ekblad and Bennett and how good they are as players. Obviously at the salaries

they're currently playing at, it's not that prohibitive, right? 7.5 for Ekblad, just over, what, 4.4 for Bennett. But I do feel like you could just let them both walk in free agency and redistribute that money in ways on players that actually potentially even help you more or fit more within the way you want to play. And so I don't think it's like, oh, it would look like a different team. They wouldn't have the same guys, of course, that have been there for the past. two years, yet I feel like they could not miss a beat, even if they lost those two guys, not to mention guys like Zamaskevich sticking up for cheap and giving them an added layer of juice.

Like I feel like there's a lot to play with there. The lease are interesting. I just don't. The Panthers would lose an edge losing those guys, but they wouldn't lose, I think, the foundation of who they are. And I think that's an important distinction. Plus, you know, given how nice a place it is to live and the organizational success they've had and how well set up they are for the future.

You'd think that even if, even if those guys get significant lifts over what they make now, you know, it's probably not the same lift that it would require X team to sign them or recruit them in unrestricted for agency, right? I think I wouldn't be shocked if both guys end up in the Reinhart situation where it's like midnight on June 30, they come to terms and decide to stay just because, heck, that's a great place. to live, the taxes are low, and we believe we can win here. Sorry.

Also, if they lose, I mean, not an excuse, but they played 45 playoff games the past two years. And so eventually that does catch up to you, right? And so if they lost, it wouldn't be that big of a surprise. For the Leafs, I don't really know how to speak about them. You even watch the game on Saturday against the Canucks. I know they had a couple games before that where they scored much more and looked way better offensively, but the season long numbers for them don't necessarily portray a very pretty picture. They've gone in this. direction under Craig Baroubae. And it's remarkable that they're averaging only 5.7 rush chances per game, which is 27th, considering the personnel they have and the fact that

Willie Nealander gets like two breakaways every single game that I watch of theirs. And yet there's still at that point as a team. And it's probably out of all the teams I can think of during this run or this era of the Leafs that I like the Leaves from like a stylistic perspective or even a watching perspective. And yet we know how hockey works. And it's probably the one that's most likely to actually make a postseason run because that's how the sport works, right? And so how do you sort of, how do you view that from a stakes perspective? Because I don't like what they've done, yet I think they're, I could foresee a path. I can foresee a path too, but it requires goaltending.

Which they have a lot of. Yeah. They have a lot of. No, Joseph Wohl's awesome when he's healthy. Anthony Stollars is awesome when he's healthy. but I just, I look at what else is in the east and what else is in their, in their division. And I just don't think they're fast enough. Like, I just don't think they're fast enough to out duel or maybe even hang with Tampa and Florida come playoff time.

Like, I just think they're, I think they've developed or evolved in a direction where they're so deliberate and they're so, Yeah, they're so stagnant in terms of their mode of attacking. And it works because of how much skill they have. It works because they've built a pretty reliable blue line and because they've got excellent goaltending. And yet, I just don't like, I fundamentally think you need to be able to generate more than they can generate and play at a higher speed than they seem to be comfortable playing at. if you're going to beat the best teams in this league. So I don't know, man.

I'm not looking at the Leafs as, I mean, I think they belong as a high stakes team because at this point, too, you know, like the Marner thing. Marner's clearly their, you know, second or third best for it. I'd say their second best forward. He's a lead on the PK.

I would say they're third. I watch him play and am convinced that he is an elite forward in this league. yet, you know, how much would another first round exit color the decision to sign him or not or to extend him or not or to open the bank for him or not, right? I mean, I think it could have a significant impact, probably a bigger impact than it would have on almost any other team considering the future of any other player with significant or a similar stature in this league.

So, you know, I think that part of it, the sort of, the ghosts of playoff failures pass loom large here but in terms of having a real shot I'm selling on the Leafs let's put a pin in it I want to revisit it because I got a lot more notes on that but we got to get to

our final two teams here just for this exercise the Oilers and the Jets and we spoke last week about how I think the the Jets are firmly number one number one I think you can make a case for the Oilers obviously because of how close they got last year

but also the fact that this is their last season with Leandro Seidel making just 8.5 after he bumps up to 14. And next season is McDavid's final year at 12.5, not to mention that Echolman Kulak, who you have under 9 million combined also expire after that. And Bouchard gets a lift.

Of course, he gets a lift. After this year. And when you have McDavid and Dry Seidle playing at this level, every year you don't win a cup is a disappointment, in my opinion. And so that's why the stakes are immensely high. So I think that goes without saying. But I feel like, and they've been viewed all

year on the market as the cup favorite. Dom has them at about 21% to win the cup, which is nearly 10% more than an other team in the league. And so, yeah, I think that's fair. There's no world where they're not the best team in hockey. Just in terms of the level and frequency with which they are pulling off exceptional skill plays to outgenerate their opponents. They do it better than anyone else.

You know, like the Super Bowl happened on Sunday, right? And as much as anyone can talk about XYZ things about the chiefs, or the eagles, it's like those teams were the two best tackling teams in football. And it's like, yeah, sometimes it comes down to what matters. And in hockey, what matters, in my opinion, especially in a league with a 900, say, percentage around the league, like as a league average, can you generate? Can you generate scoring chances? No one generates more of them than the Edmonton Oilers.

I think they are a firm second on this list. And, you know, in terms of an individual for, whom the stakes might be highest within sort of that team structure. I mean, the short skinner of it all remains something that makes me deeply uncomfortable when I watch them. I don't know how they'd be comfortable entering a year this important with him as their number one without, you know, you got to have, you got to at least have a better second option, I think, to turn to than Cal Pickard going into this playoff run. I hope they add there because the stakes for him, I mean, that Vegas series, what we saw in the playoffs last year,

although it was uneven and inconsistent more than it was bad. But it wasn't good enough, obviously, to get it done behind the best team in hockey. And this is make no mistake, from the goalie out anyway, the best team in hockey. They should win it all. And I'd love to see them just add an option in net because that remains to me the biggest Achilles heel. And I don't think that's a secret around the league. The Jets are clearly number one, right? for so many reasons, but how good they are.

Yeah. 939, 14 and 3 heading into his break with a plus 68 goal differential. They're 28, 5, and 1 when they've had Dylan Samargan line up. They're nine points clear of second in the West. The stars are second in the West and goal differential, and they're all the way down at plus 42. I just take such great satisfaction as we've spoken about in watching this team play hockey this year.

So I'm rooting for it because I feel like that continuity and how beautifully they play deserves to be vindicated. 24 of their 39 wins have come by three or more goals, which is tops in the league. They have the best power play. They have the best goalie. They've done a lot of this recently without Adam Lowry,

who, by the way, is up 26 to 14 in his 5-on-5 minutes while starting under 30% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Nikola Eilers is a 29-year-old UFA. The only players in the league this year with more points per 60 than him are Kutcheravreau, D'RSA, McDavid, and McKinnon. They also have Valardi and Sandberg as RFA's,

Pia Anmesnikov, Appleton, and Iiafalo, or UFAs, the cap going up as we've spoken about for a while now is not an advantage for them because especially as you get into that $113 million range in three years, the willingness and ability for that market to actually compete viably in that financial landscape, I think is seriously up for debate. And so given how good they are this year in this particular situation, I feel like consolidating this and finally getting over the hump, and not necessarily even winning a Stanley Cup, but shedding the demons

they've had for the past couple years and making a long run is incredibly important. They might be the highest stakes team since the Last Dance Bruins, you know, which is only three years ago, but I'd say like those two teams to me

are teams for whom the stakes are unique, you know, like I can't think of too many other analogies across the last decade. I think the state, stakes are uniquely high for a for a winnipeg like this is one where it almost goes beyond the franchise it's like this might be the city's best opportunity to win the stanley cup in its history um this is this is fire all weapons time for the winnipeg jets whatever you can do

any bit of you know marginal value you can wrench out of the trade market it's all worth it right now because this is i mean i think aside from edmonton uh and and Edmonton has Skinner and they have Hellebuck, which is a pretty significant edge for the Jets. Like outside of Edmonton in terms of teams that I've watched this season that I'm convinced are great. The Jets rank very high on that. I think they're pretty close to peerless here.

They're certainly peerless in their division. And I mean, yeah, they're a clear number one. The stakes could not be higher for the Winnipeg Jets. This is a year to fire all weapons and go for it. And I'm thrilled that we'll get. to watch it come playoff time. Would you say that their fastball is becoming increasingly difficult to hit? I think their fastball has been difficult to hit all summer or all season.

It's been, I mean, they're awesome. And then the Volardi and Sandberg, right? Like the fact that those guys are RFA's granted, you know, with a fair bit of leverage, they're both arbitration eligible. So those aren't going to be cheap. But, you know, the fact that they have some measure of team control to go along on those guys, I think what a huge boon. they're going to need to go to they're going to need smart resolutions and sharp resolutions on both

those players because I think both look like you know I don't want to say something as dramatic as like cornerstone pieces but certainly core pieces for this team for for a long time to come a credible top four guy and uh you know this this this sort of luke robatai version uh of a top line winger that valardi has cemented himself as over the course of the season. And then the Eelers element of it. I mean, I think we all know that Eelers will sign elsewhere this summer. I think they know that. I think in normal times, if this team wasn't as exceptional as they are, you'd be playing

this a little bit differently than they should between now and the trade deadline. But this is the like heavy lies the crown, right? This is a great team that can't afford to subtract a major piece from it. So so it goes. We should all be so lucky to face those types of different. difficult decisions, right? That's sort of difficult decision. 31 other NHL general managers would be angling to have. So a fascinating team in a fascinating situation. I think the stakes are highest for them. There may be one of the, they're definitely a top three team to watch over the course of the

season. And I think they're the most fascinating story to watch between now and the trade deadline, especially with how historically aggressive Kevin Shevoldeoff has been when he's, you know, smelt some blood in the water in terms of having a shot to cook. All right, buddy, we've got to get out of here. Everybody follow your work at the athletic. Listen to Canucks talk on the SportsNair Radio Network. That's all for another edition of the Sunday special. The two of us will be back at it next week.

We'll be fresh off of a Saturday night of two Four Nations games that we'll have plenty to talk about during this break in the NHL schedule. So looking forward to that. I'll be back soon with more shows here on the hockey p.do cast feed as well. So I'll see you then. Thank you for listening to us on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Thank you.