The Hockey PDOcast - The Stakes Tiers for the 2026 NHL Playoffs

Episode Date: March 23, 2026

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to sort every potential playoff team into tiers based on how much they've got on the line this postseason. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

addressing to the mean since 20th PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Philipovic. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitri Fiattov, and joining me in studio, my good buddy, Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on then? Dmitri? Another Sunday special on a Monday? Yes, so apologies for that. This time, it's my fault.

Usually it's because you're on the road covering the Canucks and we have to move stuff around. In this case, I took a very rare weekend away from the NHL. Good for you, right. I went to Defino with the family, had a lovely time, came back Sunday. day evening and have just been mainlining weekend hockey ever since. I think I'm ready to go. I've caught up on everything. It was a fun weekend of games. There was a lot to get through. The Pacific Division Pillow Fight for me was a highlight quote. But man, there was a lot of fun hockey and a lot of funny storylines that sort of permeated this weekend's games. I'm excited to

get into it all. And I mean, capping it off with, I believe, the final game of the bunch was duck sabers, a thrilling six-five overtime win for the ducks, which is a game just, designed for our personal interests here. And we're going to try not to do a full show on it, even though I think we're both tempted to, because we got a fun little gimmick here today. We did this last year, I think earlier in the season, but we're about four weeks out from the playoffs.

And I thought a good way to start thinking about it and kind of take stock where we're at within the league's hierarchy would be to bring back our stakes tiers for this coming postseason. Now, it essentially is the concept is who is the most to gain or lose relative to the rest of the league and their competition, either because of how pot committed they are to being all in this year, or what lessons they can take from whatever happens,

however far they go. I feel like we're one for one so far, because last year we were very adamant that the Winnipeg Jets were atop our list. And they won the president's trophy. They were first in the league. But beyond that, our reasoning behind, you know, Nikola Eilers being a UFA,

the cap going up and our skepticism, they'd be on the forefront of teams maximizing all their potential spending power, all that sort of stuff. And sure enough now, they're what with the six best lottery odds and obviously not competing in this year's playoffs. So we're one for one. We're going to see what we can do this year. I've got it sorted into like four kind of general tiers.

And we can work our way up like from the bottom in terms of. Although that's going to mean that we spend an awful lot of time, on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Well, it will, and especially because most of the teams are condensed in the lower tiers, especially with the fact that as we record, we still don't even know who the 16 playoffs teams are because there's a bunch of playoff races in both conferences, but we're going to try to talk our way through it. And if anything, it's just going to give us an opportunity to cover the full league and

kind of figure out where we're at right now. So do you want to get it going? Yeah, well, do you want me to pick a team? Or do you want to get it going as you're going to present to me? Okay, I've got tier one or tier four, depending on how you want to structure it. The happy to be here slash good experience for our players. Yeah, perfect. And I've got 11 teams in here.

Yeah, yeah, that's right. At West. Okay. We got the San Jose Sharks. No question. Who have 18% playoff probability. You know, blue skies ahead, heart trophy candidate. In fact, heart trophy, prohibitive heart trophy favorite if they can stabilize and make the playoffs.

I mean, there's limitless ceiling to that group. they've arrived ahead of schedule. I guess the only thing you'd put on the, maybe there should be some stakes here side of the ledger is that they kind of accelerated, maybe a little bit, maybe a little bit recklessly with the Sherwood Trade and Extension. So that would be the only thing I'd put in that side of the ledger,

but blue skies ahead for the San Jose Sharks. I mean, if we did have this conversation this time last week, I think we would have been much more excited. I still would have had them here. Yeah. But based on the state of the Pacific and the wildcard race, the west. It seemed like it was wide open since then. They've lost four in a row, giving up 21 goals against. And honestly, like, the state of that blue line, the insertion of Nicoletti

out of nowhere this week, it's just deeply unsurious. I was watching the game against the Flyers. I might have been the only one watching that game, given everything else else going on. Yep. Our guy Owen Tippett, and, you know, he's going to do this to even the best defenders in the league. But in that game, he just had carte blanche to just skate circles around everyone, mad dashes to the net. And so they've still got work to do, but I think that's fine, because obviously you have another year of Celebrini on an ELC, everything that they've built up this year. And so I think it's very exciting regardless. The Seattle Cracken.

So the Sharks at 18% playoff probability at this point, according to HockeyStats.com, Seattle Cracken down at 8% after losing in Columbus this weekend. I mean, they're probably the poster child for this tier, just because they're Jonzing to get two games worth of playoff home revenue and lose in five games in round one. Yeah. And, you know, they were at the deadline pretty aggressive or, you know, by all accounts, we're trying to land a big name player like a Panarin and kind of get involved in that.

They wound up getting Bobby McMahon instead and he's been good for them. Yeah. But in terms of the ceiling and upside here, like, it's very limited. I would say they have no ceiling or floor, right? That's kind of the problem with the Seattle Cracken. I mean, their floor is entirely contingent on goaltending and their ceiling doesn't exist. I think you like the work that Lane Lambert did this year. And, you know, but the Cracken, I think we believe that the Cracken can be a scrappy almost playoff team every year with a bunch of like really good supporting players and absolutely no stars.

And we've known that for a while and that remains what they are. You know, Berkeley Caton aside, right, like they're running out about here. and they're going to have another mid-first-round pick. Yeah, I'd be way more excited if it was a likelihood of one of these top four guys in this year's draft to add another bullet. 100%. Oh, if you were adding, if you were adding Stenberg to this lineup, I think you'd be really excited about the future could look like. But they're not. And that leaves them in the same purgatorial spot that they've occupied since they duffed the expansion draft.

Now, I've got two other West teams here. And I deliberated over this Because I think you could make a case They should belong in a different tier For different reasons, but the LA Kings Who are at 46% Playoff probability Yeah

I think this is just purely because I'm so low on this team And I think deservedly so They have 18 regulation wins In 70 games So like just making the playoffs Given what's happened this year In Anzikopatra's final season

I feel like would be a win regardless But I think there's some serious self-reflection needed this off season. I mean, at least they did that self-reflection and sold somewhat at the deadline. Yeah, the Philb to no trade, which their hand was forced a little bit, but the Perry deal, the Warren Vogel and getting a couple

picks back for that, and then getting Panarin at the price they did for two years. And signing Joseph, like, you know, moving on some guys, but sorry, I have to shut up. You would include Matthew Joseph in the list of... I have to. No, but I think my point is more than anything is just monetizing some mid-round guys and getting some others

for free. I mean, at the very least, I think they understood that this wasn't their year. And I actually thought, at the very least, Ken Holland deserves some credit for showing the stones to sell somewhat in a year with these sorts of franchise stakes from this is Kopitar's last ride perspective. Now, the reason why I say I deliberate it, because tier two for me,

you have to hand it to him. Under no circumstances, you have to hand to him. He made his bed with the Cody Cici of it all, and then watching it all. it's like, oh my God, what are we going to do? Who could have seen this coming? They are appalling. My tier two is taking the right lessons from this postseason.

Okay. And I consider putting the Kings there, because I do think they're approaching a bit of a crossroads with Brand Clark's contract status and how good he's been this year, but still whatever reason, the resistance to like just fully unleash him and just be like he's just going to play 25, 26 minutes

and be our number one guy for everything, even though his usage has been going up. He's been so, good and I think that's very exciting but you got to make that commitment hopefully of the eight-year variety and then with quentin byfield who is under contract at a good number but because it's been disappointing from a scoring front and you know he hasn't really built on the momentum he had established over the past couple years kind of that's why I say self-reflection trying to figure out once as he coppeter leaves you're entering the final year drew out his deal kind of what the next era

of king's hockey's going to look like and what your commitment to the players who you think you're building around are I'm curious to see what that looks like for them that's why I can considered like taking the right lessons because i don't think there's anything we're going to learn at this point from them but internally how they sort of view what happened this year and then how they address that maybe to your point we've already seen positive signs but i think a few more important ones are going to be needed for me yeah i agree national predators i also had in the happy to be here because they were sellers at the deadline now they didn't make the big moves with marcia so and stamp coes and um and ryan o'reilly certainly but we did see them trade off a

couple veterans, impending UFAs, and have, I don't want to say taken off, but they're currently sitting two points up on L.A.

for the final water cards spot in the West, really three, because they have the regulation wins tiebreaker as well. And after a miserable start, they were the worst team in the league through the first

25 games. They're 11th in point percentage since then, I believe. Yeah. And along the way, after making some of those trades,

they've just incorporated younger players from Milwaukee and haven't missed a beat. and I think if anything, you're seeing science from guys like Matthew Wood and stuff like that that I think are very exciting moving forward. Yet for them, they don't have a GM moving forward and they have some big decisions to make they kind of push down the road as a result of that with Stampcoe and O'Reilly and some of the other veterans who are going to be more seismic deals moving forward. So do you agree that both those Western Conference teams should be in this first tier of happy to be here? Or do you think because of their kind of place, especially with a veteran-laden group like the King, saying good experience for our players doesn't necessarily fit the bill.

I agree. I think the LA Kings, I think the LA Kings belong in their own. Should they just not be in this playoff discussion? Yeah, I think we should just basically load the Los Angeles Kings, the 2025-26 Los Angeles Kings into a cannon, am it at the sun and fire. I don't want to watch them. Blue Jacket style and then watch the guy manning the cannon get fall back. And I believe that there's still a path there. The Panarin trade was an absolute steel.

I credit Ken Holland for at least recognizing what he has, but that team's been difficult to watch. I mean, I cover the Vancouver Canucks, and I'd rather watch them. You've got a PhD and difficult to watch. I've got a PhD and difficult to watch, and the LA Kings are my least favorite watch in the league. And that includes the Vancouver Canucks,

which is saying something. So, you know, there's still something there, but I think it needs to be salvaged with certainly new ideas behind the bench. and probably a pretty significant trade or two, although the Panarin deals a start. The goal that he scored on Vigmelka, by the way, to tie that game was just like so despicable. Like credit Panarin.

He was cool that he was able to handle that, but it's just like, I was watching that game just thinking like, what are we doing here, guys? So anyway. I think at one point or another, Cody Cici lost a one-on battle to every single player on the mammoth roster throughout that game. Yeah, well, the mammoth will do that to you.

As for the Predators, by the way, just like They've run hot of late, obviously But so much of it is just Oh right, UC Soros, pretty nasty That Philip Forsberg kick past the Stamco's Would have been the coolest goal I've seen Maybe since Ovechkin falling I know the William Eklund one recently was very cool as well

But that was just To even just attempt that And then pull it off for the most part was Outlandish But they are not their recent Boyd record is not representative of how they've actually been playing.

Yeah, that's fine. I mean, relative to the competition, though, some of these teams are dealing with who are all deeply flawed. I did have someone, I saw a tweet, I was led to believe by the Hockey Pseudo cast of the National Predators were good while they were playing that game in Vancouver recently,

which they wound up blowing late and losing in a shootout. It's all relative. It's all relative. Yeah. Although I will say we're at like 50 plus games of them being a top 11 team in the league. So take that for

what it's worth. I mean, not much. More juice than the Cracken and the Kings is like fair. Like that, I'll stand behind that. But that, and, you know, one thing that Nashville can take hard in is Matthew Wood, Luke Evangelista. Like, some of their younger players have been driving this to some extent. But, you know, like the 11th best record since whatever thing, you know, they could easily still hit a flat, even though they are currently in a wildcard. I've got a whole glut of Eastern Conference teams here. I believe seven by my count. The New York Islanders. No question.

Who were having a dreadful week. Yes. They blow a 2-1 third period lead in Ottawa, give up the game-winning goal with like 13 seconds left, I believe. Then in Montreal, they're up early. Wheels just come off defensively, and Montreal's top players really just kind of blow them out of the water. And then second leg of a back-to-back Sunday evening,

massive Metro Division tilt between them and the Blue Jackets. They score a minute and a half in. Yeah. And then lock it down. I think they held the blue jackets under two expected goals against for the game. Ilya Seroken gets his league leading seventh shutout of the season. Schaefer goes freak mode late. So he played the final every second of the final 259.

Yeah. And I believe 455 of the final seven minutes and probably had enough left in the tank to play another three minutes. Yeah. Uninterrupted because at the end he was the first to every puck. Yeah. And it's just an absolute specimen. And I believe he was playing on his offside throughout that game too. and so he's got two more years on his ELC.

So that's clearly one, especially based on where they were this time last year, like happy to be here. Let's get him some reps on this stage because we didn't get to see him at the Olympics. And so I think they might be the poster child for this. No one sent that Schaefer playing the right side, lock down defense tape to anyone in the Hockey Canada Brain Trust. They don't deserve it. The Philadelphia Flyers, who are 23% playoff probability,

just keep hanging around being within five points. The Ottawa Senators who are up to 52% playoff probability. They play the Rangers in the only game on the NHL schedule on Monday night. They have games against the Red Wings and Penguins. This week, post-Olympics, 12 games. They've held teams to 21.9 shots on goal per hour of play.

They're also a model... What was it, 44 to 14 against the tanking leaves on Saturday? They're also a model break. or like if you go look at Stanley Cup probabilities for, you know, the top teams, all the models are like, well, but if Ottawa, like, the chance that Ottawa ends up in the eighth seed, like everyone's scared. Well, because every single five-on-five metric has them top three to five in the league. And it matches what you see when you watch them play.

And yet it's felt so insurmountable all year because of the whole they dug for themselves with the goaltending and the fact that whenever they would build momentum, something would happen, but they have a nice chance here this week. A reminder, let's take this reminder. to everybody that at this point in a playoff race, it's usually decided not by what teams like, Ottawa slips against the Rangers and that's going to cost them. Like at this point, what usually determines who makes the final spot or two in the playoffs, and this is probably not going to happen in the West, but don't be shocked if it does, is one team runs red hot. Like,

one team goes out and wins eight in a row, right? Like, that's usually how this stuff gets determined. You remember that Taylor Hall season, you remember the Corey Perry season that won him the heart. Obviously, the blues last year. Well, the thing is, is every one of these Eastern Conference teams has seemingly won eight in a row. I know. It's crazy. And then for the West, I'd be happy with two in a row at this point for a lot of them. Except honestly, a lot of these, like Pittsburgh, 4, 3 and 3 last 10, Boston, 5, 2, and 3.

Like, a lot of these Eastern Conference teams are just kind of collecting loser points. Loser points, yeah. Whereas Ottawa's like won 7 of their last 10. but so but you know that that makes it hard to make it up one of these teams is going to go nuke is my is my strong suspicion in the east well let's keep going through it the pittsburg penguins yeah very clearly happy to be here not the experience part i think their stakes are higher because of the this really might be you know like so much has gone right for them they've made so many good bets and there are some really young players driving this success like chinakov and kindle in a way

that i buy being sustainable but also we know that you know kindle wouldn't be the first spectacularly impressive precocious 18 year old center to have a rough year to chenacov wouldn't be the first like dogged winger to have significant shooting percentage regression and it's like he's still impacting the game as a third line winger because he's such a dog but isn't finishing at the clip that he has, you know, like that could easily come to pass next season, plus Crosby's a year older, plus Malkins expiring. I mean, for a lot of reasons, this feels like a critical one for the penguins to a different degree than the happy to be here. Well, especially with the level Eric Carlson's playing at recently. I considered putting them and take the right lessons. The reason

I didn't is because I have as much confidence as I can in NHLGM, the Caldubis will take the right lessons from it, so it's not really a question for me. And so I just feel like the happy to be here component is considering how miserable everything was under Mike Sullivan the past couple years and how it seemed like the window was firmly shut on this team even being a playoff team you're playing with house money almost at this point yep the Boston Bruins I think that the definition of happy to be here 72% playoff probability a huge comfort behind win on the road on Saturday in Detroit keep doing it they're 25th and expected goals 30th and expected goals against but jeremy swamins playing as well as any goal in the league right now and david pasturneck is as good of a bet as

anyone to make three plays that make a difference in a game. And so that's a great thing, great building blocks. And also you're getting contributions from, you know, young players like Fraser Minden, even Kuznadinov. We'll see what happens with Hagen's. You've got this Leafs top five protected lottery pick to go along with their own. And then they have the Panthers first rounder next year as well. So like there's enough bullets here where regardless of what happens this year,

this is clearly a positive. Even if their own pick isn't as high as, you know, based on what we said for the Crackin, where it'd be nice to have another impact player. Like, they can find other ways to do it. Oh, yeah, well, it doesn't matter because they have Toronto's. Yes. And, and I mean, I think if you're the Bruins at this point,

what you're rooting for is Toronto to keep their pick. I think what you want is they're unprotected next year, the pick next year. Like, genuinely, I think that the trajectory of that team is fascinating. And if I'm the Boston Bruins, I'm really hoping that the Maple Leafs get to keep their pick. Fascinating is one word. for it. Two more teams here for me.

Yep. The Montreal Canadians who I think are better than happy to be here. And obviously they made it last year. So you kind of want to take the mindset of like, they've kind of positioned themselves where this isn't the, like they kept all their powder drive the deadline. They didn't make any moves. They had, they're clearing a bunch of cap space the next two off seasons, right?

With line Azeal expiring this year and then the trifect of Gallagre Anderson to know the following year, everyone except Demadov. is signed long term at a good number with the cap going up. So they have resources and prospects and picks to make trades to improve their team. And I imagine they will aggressively scale up. Everyone's still on an upward trajectory pretty much in terms of the, the sort of age of the group. Their biggest flaw is in goal. And they've got like a 21-year-old who just absolutely is crushing it and is going to be ready next year if it's not now.

Yeah. And so like you're right. It's not dismissive at all. It's actually the opposite. I think this is a feature or not above. I think they belong in their own tier, though, where I'd be like happy to be here plus. Okay. You know what I'm saying?

Like, they're happy to be here, but they're the gold standard of happy to be here. They're happy to be here in exactly the right way with zero qualifications. Well, and the thing is, I don't want to spoil the next tier. Yeah. But they also, I think, understandably, love their core. Mm-hmm. And so regardless of what happens, I don't see it, like, an overreaction coming in terms of subtracting from it and try to remodel it. And so that's why they're kind of unique in that way.

and then the Detroit Red Wings as well who have 54% playoff probability they had that tough loss to the Bruins Larkins been out I think they belong in a different tier stakes wise okay but we can't have 20 different tiers like I'm trying to group teams

in a logical enough way I would put them in the same tier as take the right lessons no well I almost wonder yeah the next tier is something to prove right okay so I think I think them

I think they belong in a tier with Pittsburgh and I'm just looking at the West to see if anyone else applies. I think they belong in a tier with Pittsburgh and I'm going to go with the Kings. I think the Kings, the Penguins and the and the Detroit Red Wings all belong in the same tier where there's like and I would be like they're happy to be here tier team but there's urgency for a variety of historical reasons.

For the Kings, it's Copatar. For the Penguins, it's the Crosby factor and Malkin expiring. And sort of wanting to make sure you mine and take advantage of the incredible stuff Carlson's been doing this season. And then for Detroit, it's like at some point you needed to break through. This should be the year where you break through. Now, I actually don't think it's a mark. Like, I don't think that they can maybe be in the learn the right lessons thing, too. because if they miss, to me, that's zero repudiation of what they're building or the assets they've

accumulated. You know, I think they've run into a variety of those sorts of injuries that just kind of sap their momentum at the wrong moment. Well, I guess you could point to the trades they chose not to make and keeping all their guys and then making the Justin Falk trade instead. Yeah, that's tough. Doing that is kind of like a half measure that wasn't good enough based on where they were a couple weeks ago.

I think that's fair. I think that's fair. but for the most part they still are set up to win a variety of different trade opportunities of course that come their way so and it's not like folk expires so maybe taking the right lessons yeah i think i think they're so maybe they're taking the right lessons and then i'd put the kings and the penguins in sort of a like do it for x his franchise superstar tier that that's just like slightly different because they can't just be happy you can't just be happy to be here when it might be you know guys whose statues are going to go outside the buildings last good chance

to make a deep playoff run. All right, that's fair. Let's take our break here a little bit early, just because I don't want to start another tier. We're going to come back and jump right into it. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.Ocast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right, we're back here in the Hockey PEOCast,

joined by Thomas Trans. We're doing our Sunday special on a Monday morning. We're doing our stakes tiers for the 2026 NHL postseason. Now we're cooking. We got a lot of the legwork out of the way. Tier two. Keeping it medium rare, though. Taking the right lessons from it.

These are the teams who I think will need to, for a variety of reasons, resist the urge to overreact to whatever their final playoff outcome is. And, you know, we're going to go through each of them individually. But I do think we see this time and time again where a young team is so excited about what it's building, shiny new toy. And then they go into the playoffs, they get humbled a little bit, maybe even overmatch physically by a more veteran team. And then their takeaway is to kind of treat that loss in a way to lose themselves.

Right. Along the way where they all of a sudden start stripping pieces that got them there in the first place and trying to reach, trying to chase this dragon of like becoming more playoff ready and physical. The Eisenman dragon. And then instantly they just become worse. Yes. And we hate to see that. And so I really desperately hope that does not happen to any of these teams we're about to go through.

One word I don't think we use enough when we discuss team building strategies generally is like consolidation. The idea of consolidating your gains. And it feels like at these moments for for young teams especially, the answer is all is never to like lean into your strengths. Strengthening a strength. Right. Strengthening your strengths. Yeah. It's always to become more conventional.

Yes. Um, you know, and, and by the way, I do think there's a role for that too. I think there's no better example than the Josh Manson ad for the abs a few years. years ago where at some point they wanted... And Archery Lecheneen. Right, right. But yes, but Lechonin was still a bet. More of an abs player. And more of a bet on a guy whose outputs were better than their results.

Yeah, right. And so for me, that fit with like the Cadre Edition and like all of those sort. But whereas Manson was a different, like his outputs were not as good as his results, but he was a guy that they really needed to play a role that they had to have in that blue line mix. Like, I think there's a time for it, but also I think teams expedite it, you know, as opposed to continuing to add to their strengths. So consolidation is something that I, let's just like put that aside as something we should discuss more. Maybe as the playoffs go along as we sort of do some obits for some teams going forward here, the idea of what you actually need to do to consolidate and how you consolidate creatively, I think makes a big difference in terms of which teams make the leap and which gets stuck in second gear. There.

And this really is the P.D.O.cast tier. Because we're going to, the teams that I have, the blue jackets, the ducks, the sabers, and the mammoth. Okay. The blue jackets. I think we're the poster child for this tier. Agreed. Because they've been playing so well under Rick Bonas, despite that loss against the honors on Sunday. They work themselves in a spot where they're not only playing for a wild card, but could work their way up to the second seed in the metro very plausibly.

A lot of the young players were excited about are being the needle movers. Yeah. as well. Yet, there's a lot of uncertainty with Rick Bonas's future. Yep. In terms of being the coach of the team moving forward. The three veteran UFAs, especially Charlie Coil has been so good this year. And as a right shot, big center, but is 34 years old.

And that's kind of frightening to think about in terms of, like, picking up the tab on how good he's been for you this year. And having to be on the hook for that when he's 38 years old. 17 million times two. Tell me I'm wrong. Sure. They Alex Killorn. Yeah. So those three guys, even the good Branson, who's a unrestricted free agent, and I imagine they're probably going on a keep.

And then all the RFAs we've talked about in the past where it's not only the guys who need new contracts this summer, but the guys, even more importantly, who are extension eligible, and they kind of need to figure out what their future in Columbus looks like as soon as July 1st. Yeah, when Fantilli is the least interesting negotiation. Yeah, that one's cookie cutter. That one's cookie cutter. Obviously, we're going long term with him, and he needs a new contract. You know, where it gets more interesting is when you get to Marchenko and Varanco. Kent Johnson. I mean, that's, and Denton Matecichick, I'd throw in there too, to be totally

honest with you, because that's a real opportunity to get one of those sort of fixed costs wins, which to me would be vital as you consider what this looks like for Zach Werenski, who obviously becomes extension eligible next summer, and this looms large.

Don Waddell was on Canucks talk on my radio show last week. We had him on Friday, and obviously I threw this direct question, Adam and very explicitly and very quickly he came back to the idea of an internal budget too right like very quickly that was part of the answer and a significant part of the answer you guys didn't talk about his uh conversations with our pal friend of the podcast Todd diamond last off season. We did not. Okay. But we did we did throw the sort of all you've got all of this to manage and the internal budget was you know what makes sense was was referenced within 10 words. So you know that's a factor here too that this club's going to have to be mindful of. I. I remain convinced that if you want to understand how a smart team is going to navigate the cap growth era, you know, I think watching the Columbus Blue Jackets and their behavior very closely over the next five,

six months is going to teach you a lot. I think also something we see is that the most successful organizations are generally the ones who are able to kind of strip emotion out of it. Totally. Totally. To be a bit more ruthless with their personnel and commitment to players. And I understand when you go through what they've gone through this year, where it's like you're looking like you're going towards another year being in the lottery. You make this coaching change midseason.

All of a sudden, you're the hottest team in the league. Everyone's excited about your games. You're scoring a bunch of goals. The cannon's going nuts. The P.D.O.Cast is pitching the cannon getting shot instead of a sign. And the PDO cast is pitching deranged seven-step. Yeah. I mean, that was probably the apex of their season.

They could win the cup, and I think nothing would be better than that. Yeah. I get it where you'd want to just bring back a lot of people who are responsible for that. but I'm not sure that's within the best interest of the organization moving forward. So that's why they're fascinating here. The ducks who played that exhilarating game. Really, I mean, beating the mammoth and the Sabres this weekend, probably two teams we've been higher on than anyone else in the world,

including people who work for those organizations. An impressive week, they're in the driver's seat to finish first in the Pacific and most likely get a round one match up against Utah. their 31st and expected goals against. I think even within that game against the Sabres, you could see the strengths and weaknesses and why they're such an intoxicatingly fun team, but also probably very vulnerable in a playoff setting.

And then I think their decisions are more cut and dry, I guess, in terms of the forwards and the contracts they're going to have to work out with them. But I do wonder what they're going to do with the blue line, right? Because the John Carlson trade still didn't necessarily answer any of that. And I think they're approaching an interesting, dilemma with that Zellweger-Minchikov combo in terms of whether both guys are going to stay while you already have Lekom on the left side moving forward or whether you use one of those players

you could even throw in Mason McTavish and everything that's happened with him the past couple weeks into this mix in terms of like let's say they go into a playoff series and they just get smacked around by the mammoth in five games what's their response and what's Pat Rubik's response going to be to that in terms of who he views as essential on this team and and then what types of moves he makes. They've done an impressive job in getting to this point, even though along the way I think you and I've had some reservations about some of the decisions they've made in doing so.

I'm fascinated to see how that plays out for them, depending on what happens in this year's playoffs with the hand-hams. Yeah, and I'd add, like, you know, I mean, if you were to compile a list of guys who have helped their stocks significantly to be a strong head coaching candidate, I mean, would Croft be on the very top of your list this season? Like, he would for me.

So I think there's a lot of, you know, even above sort of the player personnel there, if this team finds that it's defensively flawed in the playoffs, which I think is going to be a likely outcome, even though they might be able to punch above their weight and make up for it the way they did against Buffalo, for example, where they looked really permissive in that third period, but managed to pull it out of the fire with that sick power play, sequence setting up the Grandland goal.

You know, that that team to me feels like one that absolutely cannot afford to consolidate their gains by getting more conventional, right? That, that to me is the, is the huge risk for that team, especially when you consider like the desirability of, for example, a Manchukov-McTavish package to land like a stud right-handed defenseman, but I don't think it can be just any guy in terms of of, I think, what we want to see in terms of that team leaning into their strengths. Or a 1B, 1B center to pair with Leo Carlson. Do you think that the Sabres and Mammoth should be in this tier,

or do you want to bump them up to the something to prove tier? I don't think so. The reason why I say that for the Sabres, I think they've already proven everything to me. I think from the perspective of within the league, and I think the cold and parakeo situation at the deadline is a bit of a one-off because of the timing of it

sure like I didn't even interpret that and every conversation I've had is like a no because he doesn't want to go to Buffalo the way we've talked about for a decade now but a matter of like I do not have enough time to make this critical of a decision and if I had had three more weeks maybe he'd be playing for the Sabres right now but I think it's going to take like as captivated as everyone's been by the Sabres with the run they've been on since December 9th

and how fun they are to watch and all that. We're going on over a decade of them being a punching bag for the league and viewed in a certain way. And I don't think three months of regular season hockey is going to get people to clue into that who aren't paying attention to every single one of their games the way you and I are. And so in terms of like a long playoffon, especially with how crazy that fan base is. And now it's like traveling to some of these games in California. And like I think the appetite is so through the roof that a longer,

a playoff run where you consolidate this regular season success and everyone gets so excited about them heading into the offseason. I'm not sure they become like a premium landing spot via trade especially, which I think they're going to need to entertain. But I think it makes it much more plausible that people will want to go and play there. And I feel like that's going to be their most likely path towards scaling this up to becoming a Stanley Cup contender and Stanley Cup winner over the next couple years as opposed to spending and free agents. You've convinced me. I think they belong, I think both of these teams in Utah too. I think they belong in like a separate tier that we should call something like the stringer bell, like get the word.

Well, and these two teams will be playing each other in the 26th stand the cup final. But, you know, these are teams that would benefit from sort of standing on the roof and just putting up an antenna that broadcasts to the league, like, were for real. And so getting a win, getting the sort of win that tilts you toward one of those, you know, neither team's going to be like a destination the way that the Sunbelt teams are. necessarily, but a destination that more players are open to considering in terms of their NMCs, their NTCs. I tuned into one of these playoff games, and that looked very fun. I'd love to participate in that. That team is nasty.

Yeah. I mean, I think that would help them. Yeah, especially for Utah, right, like the first playoff run in that market. For sure. Kind of continuing to strengthen their foothold and also just like winning over more fans and becoming more of an entity. Like, I feel like that probably does warrant being something to prove. Yeah.

And I think, you know, Utah is still new enough that they're probably on some team, some players like modified no trade lists just because they were Arizona and you couldn't win there. Yeah, the coyote's holdovers. Yeah. And I guarantee you Buffalo too, like going into this season, right, to players that submitted their lists in September before the season or in June last year would have had Buffalo on it that when they submit a revised list this year because their clause changes. Like, I guarantee you Buffalo is not going to be as significant a priority, even if for some players, they're still not going to be eager, necessarily. early to move there. So yeah, I mean, I do think that there's additional benefits that could come from playoff success for those teams that probably do elevate them into a separate tier.

All right, fair. You got anything else on either of those? I'm proud of us. We were pretty tidy about how much time we spent on that. No, I got nothing. Okay. Well, I have a good feeling we're going to keep talking about them in the future, so I'm not too worried about that. Yeah. Something to prove to here. Sure. Carolina Hurricanes. No question. I also have three other teams in this tier. Does the Hurricanes conservatism at this deadline change anything? Or does it actually magnify your questions about their overall approach? They're like, we have a forever window approach to trying to win the Stanley Cup.

Is that being tested this season given the way that the seas have parted in the east? Or does it give them sort of some runway because, you know, now they've given themselves the flexibility to like bring the dough along next year? year and convert a couple more, you know, Nystrom, like a couple more American leaguers and NHL contributors and Ungersorum on and on and just be like, we're going to build forever, you know, and at some point we're breaking through. Do they really have something to, is what they have to prove less about like their style finally breaking through and more about their global approach to sort of refusing to buy conventionally? Yes and no. Like, they're clearly not in the all-in tier because they're not even

remotely close to all-in. No. And you could view that as a negative. Yeah. And we talked about this at the deadline. I understand why nothing happened, but given their status, you still would have liked to see something a bit more aggressive. Yet they have so much runway moving forward to your point. So they're in a good spot regardless of what happens. I think there's generally going to be skepticism

after years and years of the same outcomes. It's just a good outcome making it to the Eastern Conference final, nothing to scoff at, but ultimately kind of bumping into this sealing before reaching the final, needing to break through. Now we've documented it. Like, I think they've made some strides. They went out. They added Niklailers. They're attacking more off the rush. They're shooting less from

exclusively kind of like the point or around the net. Like they're more in middle of the ice, like a general slot area. I think all that's good. And I think the seas parting makes it much more likely they are able to get there. Yet you look at Dom's model, for example, and it's still very skeptical of that. Like it favors the lightning quite heavily in a perspective Eastern Conference Final between those two teams. And so I think there's generally going to need to be something to prove in terms of breaking through that.

And they're not limited to just doing so this year. It's not Stanley Cup or bust for them. But that's why I think they're almost the most intriguing something to approve team because I think they have the means to do so. And now they're just going to need to ultimately win four games in the Eastern Conference final. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, at the end of the day, they're still going to end up in a 1-1-3 period game. And it's going to be Jordan Stahl. And it's going to be Jordan Martinuk playing top six minutes. and then there's going to be questions, like, why can't they finish for all the pressure that they're... Yeah, I mean, if they score six goals and four games against Andre Vasselowski in the Eastern Conference Final, the dialogue is going to be... The same as it has ever been. And so they have something to prove.

The Minnesota Wilde. Yes. Who are all in in the sense that there's a clearly defined window right now with Quinn Hughes this year and next, but in terms of proving to him that this is a viable path for at least like a couple years beyond that, not necessarily eight. to extend that window. I think their stakes should be higher. So you think they're all in?

I've got all in after someone to prove. I think they're all in for, and partly it's because of the moves that they've made, and I think partly it's because of the circumstance of drawing the hardest first-round matchup that anyone's going to draw, basically locked in. They're going to be the road team against the Dallas Stars of the Abs.

Yeah, I was going to say, can it be Stanley Cup or bust if you have to win on the road in round one against Dallas and then round two against Colorado. Yes, because that's not going away. Like, it's not like those teams are fading in the near future. And they've spent a lot to build this team. They're going to be going to war against the abs with what,

like a 5-9 Spurgeon, a 510 Hughes, a 6-foot Faber, a 6-1 Brodine, right? And a sub-6-foot, I know you're listening to their defensemen, but I've been watching a lot of wild games lately, and Hunter hate. I like his game. going to be an R guy next year. No question.

He's an R guy from like the prospect game at the CHL top prospects game a few years back. Felino times two, right? You've got Trennan, you've got Brink, you've got Teresenko in your bottom six. But I think they're going to, like, I just. They're going to remodel their team this offseason, though, especially on the wings. Well, they're going to need to get bigger on defense and faster on the wings. Yeah. I mean, very clearly.

Yes. And so, you know, you've got a pretty short window to convince. hues to stick around. He becomes extension eligible this summer. If you're a first round exit, has he had enough fun? Have you built enough of the case to extend him now? Because if you

haven't, this already becomes complicated. Like July 2nd, if there's not a deal done, it's already complicated. And so when you consider the dynamics of their circumstantial matchup. What if he's on vacation without cell reception and takes still July 7? I mean,

it's, then you're going to have six days of hand-wringing and Michael Russo writing every day about it. So look, I'm just, I think the stakes for them are enormous and as high as they are for anyone in the league. I agree, but this all sounds like someone to prove to me. Well, it's something to prove, but I just think it's elevated by the cost of what they've done, the amount of eggs in this basket, the difficulty of their path, and the evident flaws on

their roster. The Tampa Bay Lightning. something to prove, eh? Well, they've lost in the first round for three straight years and the Florida Panthers aren't around. Okay. And I think especially with the blue line, you know, which got remade out of necessity

because of the injuries they had and then all of a sudden they got all these great reps out of the Moser Raddish pair, Dashto, Carlisle, Crozier, like all these guys that have come up. Moser's such a monster, man. He's so good. And yet, man, did you see the overtime winner by Strome

and the play Matt Bay Gridden? makes against him down low oh that was that's pretty nasty i like me some mad mad vigrant um wow that was such a pedio guest tangent it was sick i mean and strome by the way looking like a very sharp by low already for the calgary flames who could have seen it coming yes yeah that and the matthew joseph signing were two of the biggest biggest deals the deadline um the light the lighting don't have anything to prove in that in terms of like they could never win another playoff game and this been a successful run for this core,

but they have lost in the first round for three straight years and clearly bumped into an unavoidable issue against the Panthers, which now isn't present, we'll see what their path looks like because, you know,

it could be Ottawa and round one, for example, and I'd still favor them in that, but it's not... No, that's a nightmare. Give me a matchup, and they're still battling for first in the Atlantic with the Sabres.

If you bump in Ottawa, you're playing the fourth or fifth best team in the east, and if you bump into Montreal, you're playing the fourth or fifth best team in the east. Either way, they're in for a tough first round matchup.

So I think you're right. I think that's a smart place to put them. I think it's been a long time since they hadn't extended a playoff run. Totally. And so I think there is a little something to prove there, especially with the blue line. 100%. And, you know, they are getting a little long in the tooth in terms of the age of their players, but also the incredible resilience that this organization seems to show in terms of reinventing

themselves Madonna style on an every three or four year basis. Like this would further validate, you know, their ability to go from what they were as a conference final team in 2011 to, to what they were when they were a cup final team and what was it's 15 or 16 to the back-to-back cup winning teams that they were and now you hope sort of this next iteration like the Lightning 5.0 if they can break through

I mean that would be just a spectacular organizational accomplishment across a 15-year timeline. Well, not even the back-to-back Cups, but I'd include that the year after where they like just through niftiness and guile really just made it through the east and gave the ads a pretty good series against team. That was one of the more loaded teams in recent memory. My final tier.

Yeah. And this is a wide range, but I have it as like the all in slash trying to stay on top tier. Sure. And it's the aves, boilers, the Golden Knights and the Stars. Yeah. So yeah, interesting. So all west. I think so. Yeah, I think you're right. Well, there's been, this is why this is such a fascinating postseason because. Do Vegas and Edmonton almost belong in a like paper tiger contenders? tier in recognition of or a pillow fight tier? Like the Pacific's just been so brutal.

And I feel like these teams are now, like the seams are showing for both of these teams. Vegas because of their speed. Edmonton because of their inability to defend their lack of structure and their mismanagement of the goaltending situation. I mean, I just feel like we're in a different phase for these two teams. I was going to say the Golden Knights and the Oilers, one team has had horrific goaltending do them in this year and the other team is the Edmonton Oilers.

Yeah, I mean, the Golden Knights games, like, there's that three game run this week, right? The Sabres game, the Utah game, and then the Nashville game were like, they played well enough. And you look at the underlying numbers for all year, but even those, and it's like, seems like a good team. They're top five pretty much on both ends of the ice. It is not translated into goal share or wins, and we're at 70 plus games of it now. And so I think it's a real issue. And I don't want to be old school hockey guy, but it, like, watching the games, it also doesn't really seem like a team that's got a lot of pushback.

Like it fades in some of these games. And I think. Now, the game they played in Dallas on Sunday was like, like it looked like they were headed towards another one of those where they're up in shots and chances, but not getting the goals. And then they got that goal eight and won, and that was huge for them. Huge. I also think they're reminded me a little bit of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the last three years where you can get them on the forecheck. And I think against some of the faster teams, like, you know, if Anaheim's a team that they bump into or Utah is a team that they bump into, some of those teams with significant speed up front, you know, and size.

Like both of those teams are fast and big up front. I think that's like I think there's a real possibility that those teams are able to, I want to say cutoff, but certainly limit Vegas's ability to get moving north-south, like right at the stem. Yeah, and regardless of what happens this postseason, they're going to need to look wildly different next year because of the cap. Yep. And so it's a huge year for them.

I had the aves here clearly because they were the most aggressive team at the deadline and they've been first in the league all season. Yet not to the scale what you were saying for Carolina, but regardless of what happens this year, and listen, if they fall short again, especially if they lose and say round two to Dallas, given the history between those two teams and the fact that they've only made it pass round two once during this era,

like I think there's going to be a lot of questions. So maybe it's a little bit of some of them approved, but they have the, assets to and they put a lot of thought into this in terms of the moves they made at the deadline to bring back this group for the most part and then change the stuff on the margins and potentially be even better or just as good next year. And so I guess you could define their window right now as this year or next while Kilmacar is still making $9 million before his extension goes up and matches Nages's extension kicking in this offseason and then things get a little

bit dice here. But it's not necessarily Stanley Cup or bust, but in a way, it is because every year you have Nathan McKinnon and Kel McCarr in their prime and you don't win the Stanley Cup. It's disappointing. And there's been too many of those instances over these past whatever seven years. Yeah, they've got runway, but they need to win. Like they've got runway, but they're the best team in hockey and they need to win. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's well said. And then the Oilers and Stars as well. You know, what I was going to say earlier was one of the most interesting parts of this postseason for me is, and you've been making this point over the past year or so for all the talk about parity in the NHL and like how anything can happen in the postseason,

it's generally been the same four teams in the final four. Yep. And this year, I mean, Florida is obviously not going to be in it. The Oilers, as we said, look pretty vulnerable depending on dry-sidal status. And even if he comes back healthy, still got a lot of questions. The Panthers aren't going to be in it. But if you end up with a Tampa Carolina conference final, you're still going to have had four total teams in the East, having played in the conference final.

And the West, I think, is a little different because of the, Utah moving over to the Pacific factor, right? So hopefully we get, I just want one team that's not the Rangers. Thankfully, they're not in. The Panthers, the hurricanes, the lightning, the stars, the abs. Well, we've had stars oilers, West final the past two years. The oil, sorry? We've had star, like the stars have been in the West final, what, three straight years?

Because they lost that a Golden Knights. Certainly, certainly three or four. And I think you can go four or five. Yeah. Well, sorry, but four or five in terms of West finals. Yeah. You can go back to the bubble. Yep.

but exclude 2021 when the Montreal Canadiens were basically in the West final. Yeah. But the, yeah, I mean, it's really been one of those eight teams like for over the last four playoff rounds. So I want to see some fresh blood. And I think Buffalo's got a shot. I think Utah's got a really good shot. Hopefully Minnesota can take a serious run at this.

But, you know, there's some interesting bids in there to sort of upset what's been a very stratified apple cart. you look at the dynamics of cap growth, you look at the way that players have a ton of influence over where they go with so many NMCs, NTCs. And I think we've got a pretty perfect storm to further calcify the haves and the have-nots in this league in a way that I think is not what this league is designed to do. And it troubles me. Like, I'm more troubled than the league is. The league continues to talk about parity. And it's been gone for a while and it might be gone for a while longer. Wow, that was ominous. I'm serious. You haven't stayed up and I think about the league this much since you were staying up thinking about David Camp during the Olympics. And now I'm thinking about him even more because where in the world is he?

I didn't realize he was going to go Carmen San Diego on the post-deadline NHL. Amazing. All right, yeah, I can't recall that. I remember there was the year Sammy Vattenen was traded. And then he just, like, nothing ever happened. I think that was that the COVID year? Right. We never actually got to see Sammy Vatt in post-deadline, even though he had been traded.

Yeah, he fell into the Springfield Mystery Hole. Yeah. What a name in the past. All right, buddy, this was a lot of fun. We did our stakes here. I think we did a pretty good job. Even though you were trying to pull us in 20 different directions, I think we got to where we needed to go. No question.

What do you want to promote the way out? Listen to Canucks talk on SportsNet 650. And of course, all of my work at the athletic, got a Canucks off-season checklist that really dives into, if you're interested in the league more generally, really dives into the variability rules changing and the signing bonus limitations changing in the new CBA and how that can be used by teams as a weapon this summer before September 15th, especially in considering locking up young players to deals that have a chance to make them into nuke trade assets over the course of a front-loaded deal. So I really went deep on that in the context of Z. Buoyum, so it's a

Canucks specific article. But if you're a fan of any team, interested in these sorts of CBA changes and their potential implications this summer, I think you'll get a lot out of that. All right. Well, looking forward to that. Subscribe to the PDOCES, Patreon.

Give us a five-star view. The Sunday special boys will be in Denver next week. We'll have a lot more on that. We'll have the live show next Tuesday, a bunch of other content while we're there. So I'll fill you in on that more as we get closer to that date. We've got Shane on tomorrow.

So looking forward to that. Thank you for listening to the Hockey, podcast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Okay.