The Hockey PDOcast - The Summer Series

Episode Date: July 14, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to circle back to what we can learn from some of the contracts that have been signed since our last show, look at the teams that have either been relatively inactive or have big cards still to play, and set up a fun week of shows that we’ve got coming.  If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitra Filippovich and joining me back in studio, my good buddy Thomas Trans. Tom, what's coming? Not much, buddy. Good to be back with you for a special midsummer week of PDOCAS shows plus perhaps a bonus episode. So we're getting down to it. This is usually the time of year where we're naming guys at random on the beach.

seeing how deep into the number of NHL players we actually have player takes on. The dog days of Luke Cunning banter. And, you know, now we're going to do it for the audience, and we've got some interesting conversations ahead of us over the course of this week. Yeah, I'm excited. I promise the intentions were good. I remember when we last spoke, we signed off for the season, and we told the listener it was the final episode.

But I just wasn't ready to say goodbye yet. You know what? It's a long summer. I went away for some downtime to the island and I tried to unwind and that lasted like two days. And then I just got back in the lab and had all these ideas in my head of what I wanted to do. Now, fortunately, you're as much of a sicko as I am. So I didn't really need to twist your arm. I was like, let's just get back in a studio and let's flesh out some of these ideas.

Well, the problem is, too, is this summer in particular, it's really difficult to tune out. You drop 160 page MOU for me over the course of a July weekend. I mean, I know what my Saturday night plans. Don't tap me with a good time. My God, I know exactly what my Saturday night looks like now, and it involves combing through and coming out of it with takes like, man, the NHL really wanted to tamp down on general cap shenanigans. That's sort of where we're at.

We're also in this interesting summer where we're seeing traits unfold. I mean, there was a lot of hype about, for example, the Pittsburgh Penguins being the one-seller team sort of leading into the draft and the quote unquote silly season. And they were kind of quiet. Not completely, but kind of quiet. And yet they've now completed sort of two trades over the past two weeks. And I don't think we'll be shocked if we're hanging out on a patio in August.

And the press release drops with Neri a report ahead of time that the Pittsburgh Penguins have traded X name player to, you know, Y name team at some point. Like this is going to be a summer, I think, given sort of. of the talent crunch the teams have dealt with, given how much cap space there is in the system, given how little talent there is, even on the sort of unrestricted free agent market, the have fallen through the cracks guys. Right. It's still pretty slim pickings, despite no one having taken a chance yet on my guy Hudson Fashing. And so, you know, I do think that this summer in particular is going to unfold in slow motion.

I think it's good that our show that the PDO cast is going to mirror that in some ways. Yeah, well, I think if that does have, happen true to form in August will really get us a good sense of which of the insiders have splurge for the best Wi-Fi at their cottages, seeing who actually reports on stuff and who doesn't. Was it the Danny Heatley trade that Bob McKenzie broke, like while barbecuing ribs or something in Muscoca? I'm pretty confident. So we've got a fun week of shows ahead. I'm not going to spoil too much. Maybe at the end we can tease a little bit, but I had this idea of kind of a framework of a theme that I wanted to do this week with you.

And we're going to go through that over the next couple days. I think the listeners will mind that we're back, even though we said we're going to be off because it's going to be a really fun one. So stick around. I promise it'll be worth the wait. But before we get to that, I thought it would be good for us to circle back a little bit. It's been about, what, 10 days or so since we did that last show. And there's been some signings, a couple trades here or there.

But I wanted to really circle back to the conversation we had about the fallout from free agency, kind of taking stock. of where we're at right now. In particular, I think a theme we were hitting on during that conversation was there's some teams that have been kind of lurking in the weeds in terms of haven't necessarily played all their cards yet, right? Are either waiting for something to unlock the gridlock

that's currently in place in the market or are just playing, you know, the long game here in terms of not necessarily even doing it during the soft season, but leaving flexibility and assets to improve in season, right? Because I think that's sometimes teams can get themselves into, trouble by just completing their entire roster and using up all of their resources on July 1 and then being like, well, our team is set heading into the season and then you get into the year and then all of a sudden now you're complaining about lack of flexibility, not able to

actually improve where you see fit. And that's not necessarily going to be the case as we look ahead on some of these teams cap sheets now. But let's go through some of the teams that kind of have uncertainty or questions left, whether it's because they've just been relatively inactive compared to some of their peers or ones that have done stuff. but still haven't necessarily fully formed their teams. Do you have anyone that comes to mind? Because I've got a list of a couple. I know we spoke with the Devils a lot last time.

I still am immensely fascinated by them because I just cannot believe that this is going to be their lineup heading into the season with the logjam on the blue line. I know our guy Jonathan Kovicevich is going to be out to start the year, but still there's such a plethora of right-shot defenders in particular that are such valuable assets. All those guys need to play. And there's a mismatch of forwards on this team right now,

and they clearly need to improve there. And hopefully I'm not sort of wishcasting my own ambitions for them in terms of not necessarily just being content with the group they have now and waiting until the summer of 27, but actually trying to strike while the iron's hot and be competitive in a pretty wide open NHL as soon as this year because of what we saw from them during that stretch kind of around the new year last season

when they were one of the best defensive teams to go along with having firepower atop the lineup. And so I want to see them actually go in that direction. We just haven't really seen Tom Fitzgerald. do anything of substance yet beyond, obviously, you know, that nice contract with Jake Allen bringing into Donov and Connor Brown, but I feel like there's another shooter drop there.

There should be. I mean, they have the nuts. They have the combination of cap space, asset, like really valuable assets to trade, and the ceiling to make it worthwhile to use those resources. Yeah. Right? So I think you're right to be as laser focused as you are on them.

not solely because you know you want good things for the new jersey devils but um because you know the the fact pattern here is clear this is a team that you know would be a move away from being potentially the best team in the metro division uh you know the carolina hurricanes are looking mighty impressive to me as well yep and and i'm not someone who buys the sort of metro as a sort of like step sister division in the Eastern Conference. I think these teams are legitimately very good. Just because the Atlantic

is an absolute gauntlet does not mean that the metro is significantly weaker than the Central or the Pacific in my view. I think the Carolina hurricanes are an elite team full stop. And I think the Devils have elite potential full stop. One more big name forward. One

more player capable of helping them translate some of that warp speed defensive game into goals, right? Even even on the scale of, you know, the Peturka edition for Utah, right? Because in some ways, Utah stylistically anyway, is sort of Devils West in terms of how they win defensively, how they approach the game. Yep. But they added that player. They added that additional winger. Now, the Devils have done that over the years. I mean, Tim Omeier was supposed to be that guy. Andres Palat was supposed to be that guy. But we've arrived here and it's clear that they're still

short a full deck in terms of players that can really do damage off of all of the incredibly cool things that Yesper Brat and Jack Hughes do and, you know, Nico Hesier as well. Yeah, they're in that spot where they have assets that we've seen teams like the lightning, but maybe the Golden Knights most notably consolidate, right? Like turning a couple salary slots and assets that people like into what you deem a more impactful needle-moving player, right? And so whether it's the four or five, right shot defensemen, two of them in Emmison Casey on ELCs or Dougie Hamilton's very team friendly salary this year and still a coveted player around the league. And what that would open up if you clear out that nine million, Pallat's six million that we've talked about.

I think Mercer's four million as well as sort of a 24-year-old middle six player. And then that desire to actually add a guy who can play with Braden Hughes on the top line, top line left winger. I think if you're going to move Mercer and maybe if you're not, you probably still need a better third line center because I think he's better suited on the wing. And so they kind of hold a lot of these cards right now that could unlock the market, I think, if they were able to actually make that type of a move on that magnitude on that scale to improve their team in the fashion that we're envisioning here. So I keep coming back to them as an interesting one. You know, another team in the Metro that I had some Caps fans reaching out to us after our last show and they're like, that's the one team you didn't. talk about and that's because they didn't do anything, right? They made the, they acquired Justin Sortiff at the draft. They were in on Nikolai Eilers and according to all the reporting,

they were either like the second or third team on the list that came down to it before he wound up signing with Carolina. They have about four million in cap space right now, but I'm actually thinking for them not as a gap here this year because I still think the baseline's going to be They're going to Australia to teach. Well, the baseline's so high because of their depth, right? And the way we saw them play last year. They're bringing in Nathan Walker. Yes. Yeah. Even if the PDO comes down, I think the baseline's there with the depth and the

goal tending to still be a playoff team. But then you look ahead to their cap situation in the summer of 26, right? And regardless of whether it's Ovetchen's last year where he comes back, that's 9.5 million there that's expiring. John Carlson, 8 million as well. And so they're in a very interesting spot where I think they're going to be good this year, but almost looking ahead to next year is the route for them, especially with some of these young players still continuing their development.

And what they've done, I think, is very interesting. They were very ahead of the curve. We've spoken a lot about our admiration for their pro scouting staff and how last year everyone they brought in, they got the best version of them. Something else they did that was a bit ahead of the curve was they really went long on pretty much everyone other than Connor McMichael along the way, right?

And not necessarily seven, eight-year deals, but a lot of those medium terms at the very least, going five, six years, obviously sort of buying low on Protis, before he exploded last year. And so now they're in a spot that I think a lot of teams are probably envious of where they have a lot of these salaries locked in on good players. And with the cap going up again next year and some of that money coming off the books, they're going to be able to add a meaningful player if they want to to what they already have.

So I think they're going to be in a very interesting spot. And I'm sure we're going to be talking about them a lot more this time next year as opposed to how much we've spoken about them so far. Yeah, they've, what's interesting about the Capitals is it feels like they could have been one of the definitive movers and shakers of this offseason, but in some ways they proactively just decided, hey, we think we found a good goaltending tandem and kind of paid those guys in season. And not that that took them out of the running in the Euler sweepstakes or what have you, but I do

think it spoke for a lot of their cap space. It certainly made it so that they were always going to be in the backseat, for example, in like the Mitch Marner running. Yes. Right? and you know overall I think that bet paid off given sort of what we saw with the goaltender

market generally how few players made it to unrestricted free agency how in demand Thompson and Lindgren would have been how much better those guys probably do if they make it to July 1 frankly yeah in terms of their overall cap hit and you know given sort of the timeline

of Ovechkin and Carlson here the way that the capitals are positioned they have so many outs for internal improvement that that's the bet to place. Like the bet it feels like to me to place is on Hendricks Lapierre and is on Miroshenko and is on Andrew Crystal and is on the other protis who blew up in the OHL this year.

Yeah, I was going to say we're really just playing the waiting game here buying time for the second pro die to hit the NHL. The second pro die. Yeah, and you know, and the way that they seem to do it, right, is that he's probably going to spend a full year in Hershey and he's probably going to go to the Calder Cup final and he's probably, you know, like that's probably what awaits Andrew Crystal, right?

Like this is sort of where the capitals are and how they do business. You know, they are going to have some pretty significant, like, put it this way. What would be a more impactful move for the capitals over the balance of the summer? Swinging a big trade or extending Connor McMichael, right? It's not even close. Yeah. They're better off sort of continuing. to do business the way they have been doing business because, you know, we had the Russian

machine that never breaks, but this is like a developmental machine right now that's just humming. And what, when you've got sort of a part of your organization that's functioning as efficiently as that is for this capitals team and it's got as much, you know, quality clay to work with internally already, you know, sort of keeping your powder dry a bit, seeing how much of last season was a mirage, how much of it can be. be sustained. I veer toward sustainable. I don't think the things they do well are going to result in them having 103 PDO again, but I do think that they should be a playoff team and a really robust club all told with a ton of outs with a variety of just outrageously talented young players

to be better than they were last season to the point where they don't need it as much good fortune in order to win games. So, you know, for the capitals, I think it makes a ton of sense to sort of take a step back and invest in what's working for you now, which is the way that they're churning out NHL-level talent. Well, and theoretically they have, we'll see on like Sonny Milano's health, although indications are good so far, but assuming a guy like Miroshenko, your guy, I think he was on your guy's list last year. And, you know, he played in the HL, but he had 23 goals in 53 games. He's a 21-year-old, and I think there's an expectation he's going to take a leap

and make the team out of camp this year. That gives them like 14 NHL forwards that essentially should be playing as well, right? So it's going to be very interesting to see how that shakes out, but then looking ahead to the following summer, there's going to be that Michael extension, hopefully, and we'll see if Ovechkin's back or Carlson. But as of right now, it's like 36 million in cap space, which doesn't necessarily differentiate them from a lot of teams because that's going to be a recurring theme. We're looking ahead a year or two.

everyone's going to have cap space, but it will be a much more meaningful sum that they can play with if they decide to do so. Who do you want to talk about next? You want to stick with the Metro and quickly talk about the penguins? We're obviously in a different spot, but I think on this theme, control a lot of these potential future moves, right? Because we've seen Kyle Dubus be very active. He's made a bunch of trades, really the past four or five months since the deadline. And I think he's done a really good job considering where they're at right now of accumulating just as many futures as he can. Like you look at the list and in that time he's traded away at Lars Eller, Marcus Patterson, Drew O'Connor, Michael Bunting, Anthony Bavillier, Cody Glass, and Alex

Nadelcovic. And he's brought, taking some shots on guys like Tommy Nobac and Tomasino and Archer Seelovs recently. But he's up to 17 picks in the first three rounds of the next three drafts. And that's without even dipping into the guys who are going to result in the biggest returns. And it's a list of Malkin and is expiring. Brian Rust, who has three years left, Rickard Raquel, who's probably one of the most appealing assets, I think, in the league right now because it's a $5 million salary for three years. He's on the wrong side of 30,

but he had such a productive year. He's a very useful, versatile player, and his contract is structured that the final two years of that deal are $3.6 million actual salaries. And so any number of teams are just going to be lining up as soon as that trade becomes a serious possibility,

and then the Eric Carlson conversation that we keep having as well and the stuff they can do with that, I mean. And the, possibility of an Evgeny Malkin conversation at some point this season. Of course. And the ongoing simmering in the background,

Sydney Crosby conversation, which we're not going to have. No. Out of respect to him. But, you know, certainly if we get to November and things look the way they expect in the Metro division standings, you know,

there's going to be questions about Malkin and then there's going to be questions about whether or not that's a domino. And that's just how the conversation is going to unfold, whether or not it's reasonable or fair or what have you. You know, whatever your wishcasting for number 87, right? We're going to just let him and let this play out because Crosby rocks. But I think you make a really important point about the fact that they've accumulated all these picks mostly while doing stuff like short-selling Luke Shen.

Yes. Picking up colyachonic on waivers and then having him be the piece that goes back to Dallas and nets them a second. Well, taking on Timons' salary and then flipping him at the draft and taking on Connor Clifton's salary and getting a free second round pick out of that. And then Connor Clifton's going to play a bunch.

Like, Connor Clifton's going to play a bunch. Well, that's the best part of this. If they do move Eric Carlson between now and the start of the season, you're looking at a blue line the features a 38-year-old Chris LaTang, Ryan Graves, Matt Dumbah, Connor Clifton, Parker Watherspoon, Ryan Shea. We'll see someone on Pickering, certainly.

But man, that's for the ambitions of this team and us talking about how they're the one team in the league that's truly trying to be bad. That's a really good starting point. Yeah, it's... It is, but it's also baseline NHL level. I guess. Yeah, I mean, it's not a high baseline, but that's the point of a baseline. Yeah, I mean, like, I won't be stunned if they're able to...

I'll be a little more stunned if they're able to net a, like, a quality asset for Matt Dumbah. But I wouldn't be, I wouldn't be shocked. Connor Clifton, you know, pretty, pretty versatile throw some big hits. Yeah, the Buffalo years were in Boston. I know, I know. And then I watched them in Buffalo and. Yeah. Maybe in a different situation.

Everyone looks bad in Buffalo. Yeah. Except like the truly elite players. Except the freaks. Yeah, except the freaks who are going to be your, you know, least favorite team's best players when they win the Stanley Cup in two years. Everyone looks bad in Buffalo. So anyway, I'm just saying, don't be, I won't be shocked if they're able to continue to

churn and sort of graft value onto this organization. I think what's fascinating to me is there's this really severe talent crunch in the NHL, generally speaking. And so, you know, I don't know if like an expedited rebuild where you accumulate a ton of cap space and then good teams lose their players and you're able to pounce on those players and you're able to sort of rocket ship up the standings. Like, I don't know if that's available to teams. in the same way it has been the last couple of years. Now, you know, that's not to say that you can't

do smart things and short selling in this manner was like an absolute hallmark of what Kent Hughes and company executed in Montreal perfectly in an environment that wasn't this significant in terms of cap growth, but wasn't too different. And so, you know, I think that more than anything is going to be what's fascinating here is how the penguins sort of navigate a, you know, not scorched earth, but certainly a rebuilding effort in a moment where, you know, talent doesn't leave, talent doesn't move, and the pressure on teams to change things up and think creatively in a way that might benefit a team that wants to sort of begin to hit the accelerator in terms of their overall timeline, like, doesn't exist, is frankly not at all shaping outcomes

in this league right now. Well, the best thing Dubus has done so far is just, repeatedly call Barry Trots. And that would be a great strategy to continue doing. So I think they benefit off of that. But yeah, considering they haven't even really played any of the big cards yet, they've done really well so far in the early stages of it. They acquired she loves, by the way.

We've got to talk about this quick. You're the only person that wants to talk about this. Why? What do you mean? I think it was, I think it makes sense. I think the discourse around it was completely overblown. In terms of what? From the Canucks perspective, because it's like,

you're going to lose this guy on waivers anyways you're paying an immense amount of money to two goalies I think getting any sort of asset in return was fine but if you look at it especially in context of what Pittsburgh did with the Nadekiewicz trade and I think they got back I think just the re-roll essentially they did a net there makes a ton of sense for them so I thought it was like a perfectly

sensible deal yeah it was and they've got like she loves is going to get a chance to start and he's been dominant at the American League level for prolonged stretches he has come up big in big moments, right, at the worlds in the Stanley Cup playoffs and the Calder Cup playoffs where he was the American League MVP. He's really talented and he deserved and needed a chance to start. And that wasn't going to happen in Vancouver with Lankin and Demko both being extended recently. Here's what I thought was pretty interesting about that deal, though.

The Chase Stillman going out the door, right? And in Vancouver, it's like the coverage focuses on this idea that the Canucks got. a prospect and a draft pick, right? And it's like, you might be stretching the definition of prospect a little bit there, given that Stillman had four American League goals in his age 22 season and, you know, 60 games. Hey, he was a first round pick. Don't look at what happens since. Yeah.

You know, and look, that's, it's not on him. That was such an odd year, right? Like, he played, like, 18 games in a Swiss second tier league because of COVID, right? Like, you know, you were basically shooting in the dark in terms of drafting that year. And some teams were able to mine Wyatt Johnston out of it. And other teams ended up with Xavier Borgo and, you know, Chase Stillman. And partly because they just didn't have enough tape on these guys. They didn't have enough viewing.

They basically, most of these guys missed their, you know, draftier effectively. So, yeah, of course there's sort of more volatile out. outcomes than you'd expect. Anyway, what I thought was interesting about that is very clearly, Pittsburgh wanted to make sure that they kept vacant contract slots. Because if you're going to make moves later on in the summer, especially for guys, whether it's Raquel or Carlson who have bigger cap numbers, you need to be able to take that money back. Like, you need to be able to take perhaps multiple contracts back to make the money work for whomever you're dealing with. So I just found it interesting that it wasn't simply them acquiring a goalie for a fourth round pick, which would have been a perfectly

fine upside bet by Kyle Dubison company, but they clearly wanted to shed a contract in the deal. And I think that's, you know, like in a video game where it's like, is this the end? Dot, dot, dot, question mark, right? Like, it's like, this is not the end, clearly, because they want to maintain their flexibility to continue to swing the bat. All right, let's take our break here. And then we come back, we'll jump her back into it. I got a number of other teams and developments over the past 10 days.

or so that I want to talk about with you. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Hey, it's Bick Nazar. Have your say and join me on the People's Show with big takes and even bigger bets, weekdays three to four on Sportsnet 650 or wherever you get your podcast. All right, we're back here in the HockeyPedio cast, joined by Thomas Drans. Do you want to talk about the RFA deals a little bit? Because I think we've seen, seen three. Do I want to talk about the RFA? I know. This is catnip for you. But we've seen three in particular that I wanted to highlight that kind of occupy the full spectrum. Yeah.

I think, right? And there are three players that I think you and I have spoken a very disproportionate amount of time on. I'm going to bring up a fourth, but let's, I'll let you guide this discussion, and then I'm going to bring up a fourth. Well, I want to talk Jack McBain, Dmittero Veronkov. Yep. And our guy, Mackie Samiskevich. Okay. And then I'm going to raise you some Caden Corshack, which we can get into at the tail end. I know. Well, we've had. had listeners asking, like, can you please? Because that came like right as soon as we finished our last show and they're like, you can't go to the offseason now.

It's the perfect hammer to our discussion. Because I think you're right to pick the three that you've picked as being representative of the spectrum. But then I want to bring up Corsack as an example that effectively detonates the paradigm that we're going to be talking about through the first three guys. So we've done the showbiz thing where we tell people what we're going to talk about. Now let's talk. Now we're going to lay it out.

Well, the McBain one. and it's a big payday for one of our guys from our list last year. 4.25, over five years, it spans pretty much the entirety of the rest of his 20s. And it's coming off this modest season, right, where you look at his hockey DB page and it's 13 goals, 27 points, nothing to write home about. But then, first off, I mean, if you watch the games, clearly what he's capable of is very evident and you fall in love with his game. But even the underlying numbers in the third line role with Krause and how good they were at tilting the ice is a massive weapon for Utah moving. forward, but I wanted to lump in what's going on down the middle right now and kind of them setting the stage. You just made that reference before we went to break about the way the

penguins were handling the contract slots and kind of setting up future moves, right? You and I were texting about this, and I'm very fascinated to see not only what happens with Kooli's extension at some point this offseason as they try to get ahead of that the way they did with Gunther, but also Barrett Hayden, who makes 2.65 this year and then will be a 26-year-old RFA. Now, they kept that fourth overall pick at this year's draft, right? They took Caleb Denway, who we both love, and it'll take him some time for the get here, but theoretically, will be another piece for them down the middle moving forward. And assuming they go a similar route with Hayden in terms of the contract structure, I think it sets up Bill Armstrong and Utah

very nicely to keep doing what they did already this summer with turning Kesselring and Done into Peturca and something that we live. love when teams do and we just spoke about that with wanting the devils to do such in consolidating some of this stuff to bring in the the priority piece for you to put you over the top right and so especially a guy like mcbane with his size and his position eligibility that's going to be such a valuable asset at this number if you flash forward a couple years or now if he keeps just playing the way he already did this year and not even accounting for for improvement and their ability to keep kind of churning here where using some of these guys to keep bolstering their lineup and really making it high end

as they take the steps that we expect them to. And I'd expect that to start, not necessarily in a trade with one of these guys this year, but you look and they've got still six or seven million in caps based. They have six picks in the first three rounds. And let's say they start the year hot in the central and they're taking the league by storm. There's going to be such a pathway there for them to make another big swing if they want to and not just be limited to a one and done the way they did with Peturka. And so I'm fascinated. by that applying that sort of a frame to this type of a contract and why they chose to go this route with McBain because I think people were maybe slightly surprised and part of that is that people just need

to rewire their brains with these RFA deals in general and we spoke about that and you know somewhat tongue in cheek with Maddie Cornado because we just kept referencing it but it really is true where this is a great contract because it gives you another legitimate asset that you can either benefit from on your team or turn into something else down the road. as opposed to kind of just kicking the can and going short or trying to save money on the front and that would appear better

but really this is the superior I think outcome to for any team really Yeah and and you know backloaded only a 10 team modified no trade So this is a deal that I think is going to help boost his asset value and in fact one of those extensions that I like because I think attached to this ticket

His value is immediately higher than it would have been without We're talking about a six foot three defensively responsible pivot, right? He's left-handed and that's the only thing, that's the only box he doesn't check on the tradable asset, um, like catnip sort of checklist. And,

you know, people look at the point totals, 26, 26, 27 the last three years and think, oh, well, you know, he's, he's super limited.

But again, this is not a guy who plays on the power play, right? I mean, just for reference, his scoring rate, the last three years, five on five among players who've played 2,000 minutes or more forwards, ranks 175th.

So that's a second line scoring right, a low-end second-line scoring right, a quality middle-six scoring right, and it compares favorably to like Anton Lundell. It compares favorably to Mikhail Granlin. Now, you know, we've seen what Lundell can do in terms of the nuance with which he is capable of playing sort of a skill game on the power play. We know there's more there, right?

So this is not to say that McBain is better offensively than Anton Lundell. So much as we also, you know, do need to remember that if you're playing third line minutes and not sniffing PP1, he has what, three power play points, the last three years total, right? In that world, 30 points is a haul. In that world, 30 points is like really good. production for a player of that variety. And when you watch how frequently McBain at his size is able to create chances, like there is more offense there, I think, than the production has indicated. I mean, he's been stapled, generally speaking, to linemates where he is

driving the offense for a third line that was honestly one of the better third lines in the league last year. He was clearly the most creative player on it. His reaction. in time. This is always what stands that stands out to me. We so often see like big lumbering center like, you know, gets by with his size and frame and is able to overpower opponents, but

he's first to Pox. He recognizes where play is going and anticipates the way we think of more skill players anticipating. So, you know, there's a variety of individual profile reasons that I really like

this bet and think it's fair value, but then structurally and bringing up the Barrett Hayton example I think is is interesting because yeah they've got a lot of work to do down the middle and they have another piece coming and down the line yeah moving a center with some cost certainty attached to them and a unique profile and Hayton would qualify or McBain would qualify down the line you know that's the sort of that's the sort of value that you can create contractually that then helps you make those sorts of trades where you're trading good players for great players. And that's the toughest thing to do in this league. And that's why the segue to the Broncov contract is tough, because the last

time we spoke, we were pretty critical of the summer that Columbus has had. And I think I even said the one silver lining here would be going along on Broncove and buying up as many years as you can, because I think that highly of him as a player. And then shortly after that, we learned that he signs a two-year extension 4.175 per. And I think the reason why, it's deeply troubling to me is because that'll take him pretty much right up to the brink of unrestricted free agency, right? When that expires two summers from now, he'll be a 26-year-old RFA with one more year of team control arbitration rights. And in terms of the leverage teams still maintain, which is dwindling now compared to previous years with some of these RFAs, that really evaporates.

And then you bring in the fact that Marchenko will be in the exact same position as a 26-year-old RFA with Arbrites that summer. Kent Johnson is younger, but he will also be due for a big pay raise as an RFA with Arbrides, and then Matechuk, I believe, is an RFA that summer as well. And the issue is that this was the offseason where Columbus was blessed with a ton of cap real estate, right? And so this was a bit in the perfect opportunity to maybe even pay a premium to raise the AAV but buy extra years on the back end when you'll hopefully be more competitive and have a better team that's more expensive. But the cap will go up to a point where that AAV by comparison will be very manageable.

And instead they went to two years, kick the can down the road. And so it's certainly a problem for another day. But I think it's a very dangerous type of contract to be signing in this climate. And I'm sure like you mentioned when we were having that conversation last time, this belief that the player himself, for example, might just not want to commit long term in Columbus. And I'm certainly open to that idea. Reading the tea leaves on some of the comments

from Don Waddell and the Blue Jackets on him and Marchanko the past couple years, I'm not sure how much of it is that and how much of them just not being sold entirely on the player. And from my perspective, I'm not even sure which one would be more concerning if I were a Blue Jackets fan because both obviously have dire consequences.

but missing that badly, I think, because I love this player so much. And he's so unique, right? You talk like a 6'5 winger who doesn't really have the puck that often, yet produces at a high rate, wins so many battles along the boards, is an absolute beast around the net. And he's been in North America for two years. He was very public and vocal about his struggles adjusting when he came over two years ago. Then it was in Pascal Vincent's Doghouse, was playing like 13 minutes a night.

that jumps up by three plus minutes this year and he not only maintains but improves his production and looks every bit the part of a top line winger and so if you don't love that player then I have serious concerns and questions about you as an organization in terms of what you're looking for in these guys.

The history too of Columbus struggling to retain Russian-born players I'm thinking back of course to the summer of 2019 with Bobrovsky and Panarin departing and sort of closing that Tortorilla era championship window, a championship window, a deep playoff run window that the Columbus Blue Jackets opened under

a Kekaline in there. And, you know, you've got now Markchenko and Voronkov, who clearly are cooking in terms of having real chemistry at the top of the lineup and winning minutes against elite teams at the top of the lineup and giving this Blue Jackets team a gear that we were really excited about. A legitimate fastball. A legitimate fastball in the tail end of last season. You'd certainly love to have building blocks in place long term. And, you know, we are now in, and this is the other part of this that I need to, I need to wrap my head around. We are now in our second decade, our second decade spanning three different management errors of the Columbus Blue Jackets being at war with second contracts and completely and utterly failing organizationally.

to get star players locked up long term in a way that creates surplus value for the organization and puts them on a path to maintaining those players in their organization over the long haul. I mean, the Ryan Johansson contract, we're talking 2012, 2013 here. The Ryan Johansson's second contract was the first one with that max backloaded structure where like it was an $8 million qualifying offer. and it was the ultimate in this is a contract designed to settle the matter

so that there's no camp holdout but to give me the leverage to get out of here if I want to. It's not a shocker that that happened with the Columbus Blue Jackets because we went through it with Josh Anderson we went through it with did they sign the Seth Jones second contract

or did Nashville I don't remember but they have gone through it with a million players over the years It's been a constant feature factor in sort of how they've, yeah, so it was them. It was Kecklein and signed the second contract for Seth Jones. That was a six-year deal. That was probably the best of them. That was probably the best of them, generally speaking.

They bridged Werenzki, right? So, you know, at some point, I think they do need to organizationally take a look at and think about, like, why are we? we built in such a way where we have all this young talent, right? Maybe one of the most exciting young cores in hockey. And our players that we have signed for the longest amount of time are Proverov and Severson and Matthew Olivier and Sean Monaghan as opposed, I mean, it's a grim list. Well, don't forget the four years of Miles Wood now. And the four years of Miles Wood, while you've got, you know, all of Voronkov, Marchenko,

you know, even like the Shinikov Sillinger tier, but certainly Kent Johnson, and Fantilli, all expiring in the next one or two seasons, it's just a tough way to sustain excellence. Betting long on Kent Johnson would have been an unbelievable swing for them to take a year ago. And you just worry that they're, you know, they've kicked a can down the road that's going to lead this Blue Jackets organization, or at least increases the plausibility that this is going to lead the Blue Jackets organization. to the same place that they've been for much of the past 20 years, wherein, you know, they end up bleeding talent. Well, in the Vronskov situation might be different,

but I do recall last summer, like, Marchenko, who is a Milstein client, was pretty adamant that they wanted a long-term commitment. And, you know, he hadn't taken the step that he did this year in terms of his production, and he really exploded and really became the fully realized version of what Marchenko showed flashes of the previous year. But you look at what that contract is now,

compared to what it could have been and I'm with you in terms of like opportunity cost and leaving stuff on the table and and we'll come we'll come back to that because what you just said there will dovetail nicely with the Korshack conversation everything always comes back to Cate and Korsack um the last one on my list the Mackie Samiskevich one which comes in at a paltry 775k for one year now he was not offer offer a offer sheet eligible this summer he will be next summer I believe this is obviously a unique circumstance because of the cap situation 2.2C once. Yeah, because of right now, I think they're like 3.7 over the cap.

We'll see what happens with that, whether it's a Rodriguez-Nobokus trade or whether it's Kachuk being hurt to start the year. But the finances there are so unique that it's tough to be critical in this instance because of those specifics and those details. But I think you and I are very firm believers that as soon as we see Mackie Samiskevich play this season, what he's going to be able to command and what the next deal going to look like is going to be significantly different than this current situation where he only got to dress for four of the playoff games en route to repeating his Stanley Cup champions.

Because I just envision a scenario where it's going to be more of what we saw down the stretch of the regular season where he should be playing in the top six, probably with Barkov and Reinhardt. He should be playing on one of the flanks on the power play and they should scrap the two defensemen look. And he finished with 31 points in 72 games, but I believe 18 of those were in the final 30. And so I'm penciling them in for 50 plus points this year. And I just think he's going to be awesome.

And that's fine because the cap's going to go up again, but Brovsky's $10 million is going to come off the book. They're going to be able to retain the player. It's fine in the context of them being in their championship window, but it's another one where you could have bought so many years for so much cheaper that it's going to cost. Yeah, we don't have to ignore the potentially significant opportunity. cost that the Florida Panthers have incurred by doing a one-year deal with Mackie, Samiskevich.

We don't have to ignore that simply because it's completely justifiable when you're playing for history and when you find a way to retain all of Ekblad, Marchand, and Sam Bennett to use your leverage with a player like Samiskevich who has a 10.2c, he's a black hole player. He's not even a free agent, frankly, right? Like he doesn't appear on the NHL's free agency lists. He's not a free agent. by any definition of the NHL's system. And so you use that leverage to net short-term value. You're playing to win your third cup, right? So the opportunity cost, which is significant here,

is manageable when you're a team that's playing for history. The fact that there's going to be a ton of ways for this to all make sense with Bobrovsky expiring and all of that, that doesn't mean that the opportunity cost doesn't exist and that it's not massive. It just means that it's manageable because of how good the Panthers are and because of how high leverage it is

to save every possible cap dollar in this final season. And, you know, in the event that Evan Rodriguez ends up moving on, I think 50 points is going to be, like just mash the overs on Mackie Semiskevich total points. But also, you know, we're in one final season under the former CBA,

which per, permits or at least is written in such a way where there are more cap shenanigans that you can sort of indulge in. So perhaps there's even a world where they find, you know, this team's gone deep three years in a row. Are we going to be stunned if they get to training camp and it's like, oh, there's this undisclosed injury for one guy and they ping pong through the season with different guys hitting LTI and try to really stretch their advantage one more time?

We're not going to be shocked by that. We shouldn't be shocked by that. it would be naive to be shocked by that. So, you know, maybe they don't end up opening up up this sort of opportunity that puts Mackie Semiskevich in a position where, you know, he's playing top six minutes and absolutely lighting it up. I still think the opportunity cost here is massive. It's just that when you're playing for history the way the Panthers are, when you're set up the way the Panthers are, you know, even moves that I should hate are completely justifiable because of how well positioned they are and because of the stakes of sort of every little,

little bit of marginal improvement in the short term. They're so high that it justifies them incurring this cost in this in this contract. Well, you hit on this when we were talking about the McBain deal, but even if it's not you benefiting from it, creating this value for your organization in terms of that salary slot is an interesting way to think about this. And I think you know, apply it to the Varancov one as well, right? Because the reason why I was talking about like the organization's mileage on them, there were a lot of rumors and trade buzz. about him being a trade candidate or being available that route.

And so even if you're not sold as an organization on the player or you're going to view them as a trade piece down the line, getting them locked in for more years at a very palatable salary that's going to be increasingly so in the coming years,

just improves your ability to then accomplish what you wanted to in the first place, right? Like Samiskevich at whatever figure he would have been in on a five, six year deal that goes up a couple million, instantly becomes a better trade piece for you

if you're going to push even further in the all direction. And let's say you, let's say Maddie Kachuk goes on LTIR and the Panthers become the Air Carlson team. And they just load up, they bring him in, he can play with forcing situationally, he can play even on the third pair with Kulikov and just do the absolute best version

of what we saw from Nate Schmidt. Sandwich Kavitzer's a trade piece in that becomes so much more intriguing to Pittsburgh than a guy who's going to be an RFA, offer sheet eligible, making much more than he's already been slated for that you could have got him on the previous deal, right? And so I think that's an interesting way

to look at these sorts of things. Do you want to talk Korsak? Do I want to talk Korsak? Yes. Unfortunately, we've only left about six or seven minutes here. I think we might need to bleed it into the next show as well. There's no way you're going to be limited to six minutes on this day. I think I can do it.

Okay. Four years, 13 million extended, not the day that he became extension eligible, but pretty close. I actually don't know what the precise day was. You'll be shocked to know that I... I think he was on the second or... the third because it was right after we recorded. Really quickly though.

Yeah. The Vegas Golden Knights extend Korshack, you know, who has another year left on a two-year 825K bridge that he signed. He was trending toward being a group six guy. That's how infrequently he's been used. And they signed him for four years at 13 million. There's no clauses in the contract. So this is another one where, you know, Korshack plays well here.

he's going to be a very attractive trade asset for Vegas. But I think the fact pattern that needs to be really focused on is that this is a guy who played one playoff game for the Golden Knights when they went two rounds in the past postseason. He's played 77 games total in his NHL career, and they just signed him at four times 3.25. And the Korshack deal for me is one where we really need to detonate our framework. Like this is one of the savviest teams in hockey, right?

And they have completely expanded, in my view anyway, the sorts of players that we should be thinking about being worthwhile long-term gambles. And I think the interesting thing about Korshack here, and there's sort of, I mean, there's a million interesting things. But there's two things in particular that I want to talk about. the first is the idea of like if if if this is a miss if this is a miss and corshack is just a you know six foot three right-handed defender who's only ever capable of playing third pair minutes how much is it a miss by 500k maybe not even that right like the the fact is is that korshack can not improve and remain just an everyday level sub-average third pair to vendor and because his profile is so unique, his deal is still probably going to be fair value

and in fact probably going to be below market value in an NHL where, you know, the cap is going to increase as predictably and as significantly as it's slated to over the next two seasons. If Korshack hits and is a top four guy or more, then this is a massive win. So this is like the perfect small miss big hit, right? there's almost no world in which this deal doesn't turn into a surplus value for Vegas because Corshack can like completely plateau in his development and it's still basically a fair market deal for a player with his floor with with his overall profile. There's a lot of players and there's a lot of situations like this.

The team I cover the Vancouver Canucks signed Atu Ratu, 22 year old who's played, what, 50 NHL games and has really good American League counting stats profile, but, you know, has some speed issues and on and on. They just signed him to a two-year bridge. And like, for me anyway, that's the exact profile again where it's like this guy wins 55% of draws. He's a 6'2 centerman, right? if you sign him five times two and a half, five times three million, he doesn't even have to improve, provided he's a bottom six every day in HL centerman, you're basically taking like 500K in risk and maybe not even that in the cap growth era in terms of what his floor is.

He doesn't even have to develop for that to be a win. These are the types of bets that I think teams need to be placing more aggressively, especially with organizational depth pieces who haven't established themselves at the NHL level yet, but have profiles where their floor is high enough that it almost doesn't matter. Well, especially in this spot where, with Patrangelo being out,

there's such an opportunity for increased usage and ice time and the ability to benefit from it. Would you say that the way, when you look at a contract like this and the way you perceive it or what you see in it, should be called the Korshack test? The Korshack test, yeah. You know what?

I don't hate it. I like the idea a lot. I'm sure there's some watchman references that we could throw into this too. And here's the last one is, you know, one of the teams we didn't get into that still has a lot of business to take care of the summers of the Winnipeg Jets, right?

Because they've got Valardi and Dylan Samberg unsigned. And the Korshack deal to me feels like this is Samberg insurance. Don't get caught on the back foot on a Sanberg. on a, you know, an unsexy prospect that, hey, it turns out is, you know, a two, three caliber guy. And now they're going to be a five or five and a half or six million dollar player, depending on how they play their cards there. So I just look at this and think this is in some ways the proactive version of that. Don't get caught on the Sandberg deal. All right.

We got to get out of here, Tom. It's good to be back. This is the first of a couple shows we out coming. We're doing a people in the game. week theme here in the PDO cast this week. It's kicking off on the feed Tuesday. We're going to have the one spoil. We're going to get a player agent Todd Diamond on.

He's going to join us. We're going to really get into the nitty-gritty of the new CBA and all the market stuff we saw with contracts this summer. So I'm really looking forward to that. Todd Diamond, of course, represents Mikhail Granland, Provorov. A bunch of contracts ever signed. Almost no one better to talk about sort of the cap growth era

and changes from a player compensation perspective than him. So we're really looking forward to that conversation. We're going to do that. some GMs, coaches, players on. It's going to be a really fun week. So come along for the ride with us. Join the P.D.O. Gas Discord. Give us five-star reviews wherever you listen. And thank you for listening to the HockeyPedio Gas streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.