The Hockey PDOcast - The West Race, Draisaitl’s Return, Michkov Without Torts, and Future Contracts

Episode Date: March 31, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to talk about this weekend's most exciting games, developments in the Western Conference Wild Card race, Draisaitl's return performance against the Flames, dark horse MVP cases, Michkov's first couple of games post John Tortorella, and framing Jakob Chychrun's new deal through the lens of a brave new salary cap world. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

since 2015. It's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey Pediocast. My name is Dimitri Filippovich. And joining me is my good buddy Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on, man? Not much, buddy. You've been a, been an awesome week of hockey, I feel. Like, especially, I say that almost every week, but this week in particular, I thought it was scintillating, especially if you're watching the playoff race storyline in the West. Yes, certainly. And we're going to get into all that today. I wanted to start off, and by the way, we were apart last week. It felt like I was in Hawaii, but it felt like my life was missing something. I'm sure the listeners felt the same way. I know they'd have expressed that in the Discord that they can't wait for us to be back together,

and we're back here for another Sunday special. I wanted to start off today getting into that Western Conference, Wild Card Race with you in particular through the lens of what we're seeing from the St. Louis Blues, because I know you and I both very closely, it was a bit of an island game on Saturday afternoon. There was nothing else to really watch. We were both dialed into it, watched it from start to finish, and they went into Colorado and answered a few questions for me, because I know they've been playing remarkably well pretty much since Jim Montgomery took over, but especially since the Four Nations where they're 15, 2, and 2 now ripping off this remarkably hot stretch. I think their outscoring team is 74 to 40 in that span.

They extended the win streak to nine games, but a lot of it was kind of... Against Nashville. With an asterisk of like, well, they just played a three-game series against the Nashville Predators. They've been beating up on some softer competition. taking care of business, but still. And they didn't even play well against the predators. The game that they defeated them was at Wednesday, where they were dead in the water. I think it was Thursday, yeah.

Yeah, Thursday. They looked like they had zero legs left whatsoever, and they get one rush through the neutral zone from Zach Bullduke, finally breaking the puck out. I swear they iced the puck 12 times in the third period before this sequence. Bullduke finally drives through the neutral zone, and then Jake Neighbors does some awesome work, sort of rotating. up with Letty to the point feeding Fowler. They score and then Holloway, you know, sort of calls game himself on the very next shift. Yep. But you come out, I came out of that game being like, this is classic.

Now, I've been impressed by a lot of what I'd seen from them, but I came out of that game thinking this is classic team on a hot streak stuff where at the end of the day, you know, they hadn't played well. If you'd asked me after watching that game, would that sort of performance? work against the Colorado avalanche, I would have said, nope. Yep. And yet what we saw against the abs was absolutely them hitting the old fastball. It really was.

And then what really stuck out to me in watching that game, and it's been an extension of what they've been doing during this entire stretch, but obviously taken to the end degree just because of that competition and the environment as well, right? Of going in altitude, playing against this abs team that has been red-hot themselves since the trade deadline. that's just so tough to beat in that element at home. And the defensive effort they put together, right? Mike Kelly from Sport Logic had these stats where the league average in terms of rush

chances allowed for teams this season is 6.4 rush chances allowed per game. Now, the Blues during the splitting streak of nine games is down to not 2.7 rush chances allowed for a game. In this one, they held the abs to just four, which is quite a feat. And I think early on Nathan McKinnon got lose for that breakaway. He rung it off the bar. but from then on, they did such a good job of managing the pace in that game

against an incredibly fast team that really speeds everything up. They stayed in front of them for the most part. They were very disciplined. It was like a perfect road effort from a team that's really serious about competing the way the blues have been. And I was just mostly impressed by that, right? Like, especially to do it with this personnel, they were riding the pair of Justin Falk and Philip Broberg

pretty hard, especially hard matching them against the McKinnon line, and they were out there to kind of salt the whole. away the game at the end. They got into a couple hairy situations where like they'd get the fourth line out there against McKinnon or even the Ryan Suter third pair and all of a sudden it would feel like an Aves power play and you're like, all right, Jim Montgomery really wants to stay over this. They did a really

good job of doing that. But especially without Breiko and this personnel and I know the Camp Fowler edition's been huge because it's bumped Ryan Suter down the pecking order and limited his minutes and gotten everyone to be a bit more effective. But still, for them to be playing this well defensively with that personnel and the limitations

they have, especially in terms of foot speed, pretty much across that depth chart, it speaks to, I think, Jim Montgomery and the job he's done. He clearly came in. And I think during his time in Boston, it became pretty clear that he was one of the best, if not the best exes and owes coaches in the league. And there's more to coaching at the NHL level and that. But he's come in and he's changed the way they play. And you can see that in a game like this where it just resembles an entirely different

team than what we saw from them early in the year where, like, they just never had the puck and they were just getting speed bagged by whoever they played. Yeah, and I think one thing that stands out to me when I consider what we saw from the blues this week was, look, Robert Thomas and Dylan Holloway are getting a lot of flowers, and they deserve them. They've been driving. They've been incredible. But, you know, against the avalanche, it was Bullduke on the power play. It was Bullduke who finally broke the Predators, you know, forecheck in that third period when the blues looked like they didn't have a pulse. It was neighbors up high.

I've always liked neighbors for the size and some of the shooting, the downhill attacking stuff. But, you know, the read when he went to cover at the point for Lettie, the shot, like he attacks downhill briefly into the sort of high slot, gets the shot through into traffic, and then makes the, does it again and makes the smart pass off to Fowler. Like, real nuance in terms of driving that offensive attack. You know, I think you're seeing it from Tucker on the back end. you're obviously seeing it from Broberg. Honestly, I even think guys like Matthew Joseph aren't producing a ton, but in terms of how sorely needed his speed is in that lineup, I think he's been awesome for them.

And, you know, so I guess more than anything, one of the things I sort of come out of it thinking is part of the credit that Montgomery deserves is right now he's got like a bunch of young guys who we knew had upside, but who weren't necessarily performing at the level of, of playing meaningful roles for a winning team earlier on in the season. Right now they all are hitting at the same time. And I think that's raised their floor while also giving them this ceiling case

that I don't think, certainly you and I didn't think they had as recently as four weeks ago. Well, there's been a couple of things. I think one is just understanding the personnel, which is kind of what you're hitting at there, and then adjusting the usage accordingly. Like we've seen Holloway takeoff under him and his bumped up. I think he was like their seventh most used forward early on under Drew Bannister. And now he's their most heavily used forward at 515 since the coaching change, getting Fowler in there and bumping,

suitor down and taking like four minutes off of his average ice time total. The other thing is, and this is, it's interesting because this was kind of for years, even predating Jim Montgomery being their coach, this was such a Bruin staple. They were the best team in the league at executing like set plays in the offensive zone, whether it was off of Patrice Bergeron, face off win or on the power play. And you saw a little bit of that in this game as well. Obviously, the Bull Duke power play goal itself was just operating that kind of low triangle

where they work it down to the goal line, get it to them in the slot, and it's a beautiful set play that he's able to execute on. There was also the play in the third period. I think it was the Cam Fowler pass off the offensive zone draw diagonally. That would have been a goal for, I forget, it might have been Oscar Sunquist or some blues forward. But it was such a beautiful, like, clearly, like, this is the design of the play that we want to run off his draw, and then executing it for. from an X's and O's perspective, and we're seeing that from this team a lot.

Also, Zach Boldew, who you've mentioned a couple times here, and I just talked about his goal, 10 of his 16 goals this season have come in 17 games since the break. I like what I've seen from him, and it's an interesting talking point here because I think this Blues team, something they've done remarkably well for the entirety of this dog Armstrong era, is getting value out of those first round picks in kind of that mid-first to late-first range, right? Like since 2016, they took Tage Thompson 26th. They took Robert Thomas 20th. Jake Neighbors, who scored 27 goals last year and he's going to top 20 again. They took him 26th, Bull Duke 17th. And then now we just saw Jimmy Snugrewd sign his ELC.

DeVoski did DeVoski play a couple of games as well. And both guys might play a role down the stretch here. We'll see. They certainly have an option to get them in there. I thought Duvorski looked pretty good in his two sort of, was it two games? I think it was only the one. Okay. I believe. He looked good in that game. I thought, I mean, you know, maybe not a guy you can trust at this time of year in sort of a regular shift,

but certainly a guy that if you press him into duty as a result of injuries, you're not going to be, you know, you're not going to be lost. In that game, they kept the abs at 5-1-5, and there was about 50 minutes of 5-1-5 play, under 20 shots on goal, under two expected goals against generated, and part of that is just how discipline they were about getting back in transition. in playing like a very smart, calculated game from a decision-making perspective with the puck. I will say, though, in watching that,

there were a couple of stretches, and especially with the abs pushing late, where, like, they showed you why they're so terrifying, even if you do execute everything well defensively, and their play on those extended offensive zone sequences where they're cycling the puck is nightmare fuel for the opposition. And you and I were texting about this, but I think what they do better than anyone,

and part of it is because of the horses they have and sort of the respect that generates from the opposing team but they compress the offensive zone so much to the point where it feels like FI-15, all five opposing defenders are below the hash marks in their own zone. And so even when the abs get point shots, they're really almost like fringe slot shots because the guys taking them are kind of like at the top of the circles.

Everyone is just a couple feet lower than any other team's offensive zone set up and it feels like it's just impending doom for the other team. And there were a couple of stretches. They obviously didn't score on them. But in this game where it's like you feel like you're just, if you're the blues, you're hanging on for dear life. And the abs just remain terrifying doing so.

So I think it's really cool to watch when they execute that. There's a couple thoughts that I have on this. One is when you like maximize the extent to which it's an area game as an attacking team, it magnifies the cost to your opponent of every time you lose one-on-one or every time they lose one-on-one. And you can see the panic in defenders the moment McCar or McKinnon does it. Effectively, I feel like it's like a strategic declaration that R5 are better than your 5.

And because they're usually right, it causes an immense amount of stress on their opponents. The other part of it is it creates these sequences that I've just become completely, enamored with where because they're compressing in the offensive zone the moment there's a turnover there is space to counter against them but because they have devon taves because they have calmer and because they have nathan mckenon back checking like an absolute demon you get to see these crazy avalanche chase downs yes on a regular basis like right now you are seeing once or twice a game Nathan mckenon just turned like a three on two like the blues had a three on two in the late in the first period and I thought boy like they haven't created any juice off the

counter here they can't waste this opportunity that's what I thought in real time is they skated down ice and within a half second it just wasn't a three on two anymore because Nathan McKinnon had rushed back and watching that guy skate the other way right now with just the same ferocity that he's always had as like a predatory puck carrier is honestly one of my favorite spectacles in the league There's shades of like peak LeBron chase downs off the fast break right now in watching how McKinnon sort of, I guess, covers for how the avalanche are approaching things offensively without actually surrendering all that much given how high event their play style is. That's such a good point.

And especially within the context of this particular matchup in the game we're talking about because I would argue the blues and this is why they were getting in trouble defensively early on in the season, we're trying to play that way without the personnel to do so. Right. And so you'd have guys like Perako and Falk and Letty getting low in the offensive zone and kind of like trying to do too much. And all of a sudden, whenever they'd lose the puck, they wouldn't be able to execute exactly what you're saying there, which is getting back and recovering on time.

And the abs, just because they have such phenomenal skaters and guys with such great instincts, are able to get away with that. So it feels like their margin for error is so much higher. they can try stuff and still not have it lead to punishment, whereas a team like the Blues needs to like micromanage all of the decisions to such a higher level and they've been able to do so because I think Jim Montgomery is such a good coach that he comes in and he's like, all right, fresh voice, I've had success in the league, we're going to play this way and everyone buys in and then operates that way.

And so you kind of seeing the both of those extremes and how they can be effective. There also the other reason why I love that point and not to steal your thesis here because I'll let you talk about it more. but we were also watching Canucks Jets on Sunday. And we're going to talk more about that, especially the Canucks in the weekend they add in the context of this Western Conference wildcard race. But early on,

you're watching the Jets try to play the way they always play, which is such a team concept of like support everywhere, a bunch of quick passes, short ones, and we're going to pick you apart methodically that way. And the way the Canucks defend is, applying a lot of like show pressure. Yeah. And you need to beat that guy one-on-one because as soon as you do, it creates an opening

and then everything kind of just falls apart like a deck of cards. Right. And it was interesting seeing the Jets in real time kind of like realize that. And then you saw a couple moments of individual brilliance, right, the Kyle Conner goal to get them tied. The Nick Laeeler's play coming around the net to get it out front for the ultimate game-winning goal. And then obviously the perfetti goal off the rush where like their best players took it into their own hands to go like, I'm going to beat this defender one-on-one, and this is going to create a scoring chance or a goal for us.

And early on, they're very reticent to do so because that's part of the charm of the Jets, right? The reason why they've been so successful this season and why they're so connected and have all this continuity is because of that exact function, and it doesn't really work when you get into a defensive matchup against a team where, like, you need to expose them in a bit more deliberate one-on-one way, and the abs are better at that than anyone, which is like, no matter who you are, if I'm Nathan McKinner, Rakell McCarr, I'm going to be able to get around you, and then you're going to send a help defender,

and then someone's going to be open, and we're going to cook you that way. Yeah, well, that's the, that's, you know, I think the brilliance of how this Talkett-led Canucks team defends, especially, you know, and they've been actually defending even better in the absence of some of their key players, but, you know, they're extremely disciplined, and they do show pressure, and then teams, like, they show pressure in ways that trigger teams to be like, well, they're pressuring me here. If we work it around, there's going to be space. And the answer is no, it feels like they're showing pressure, but they're actually extremely disciplined and extremely conservative in terms of their overall positioning.

Now, it works, I think, largely because they have so much size on the back end and, frankly, because this defensive group, you know, which has recently been beefed up with guys like Marcus Pedersen and Elias Pedersen and on and on, has real mobility and real chops, right? In addition to the size, it's not quite what it was last year where they were. were more like battering rams on squeezes at the blue line and then and then a pain in the neck down low. Now there's, you know, a little bit more all around or two-way juice. So, but yeah, I thought the Jets were trying too hard to play their own game. They came out with the sort of focus and push that you want to see, I think, from a, you know, top of the standings team that hasn't played a meaningful game with real stakes in months, but just lost to the Canucks.

so you want to see them show some dog in a game like tonight or today on Sunday afternoon, and they did. But they were generating, like, lots of chances at chances that weren't really going anywhere. And then it felt like they got frustrated and started making some sloppy mistakes that really fed the Canucks game. Logan Stanley makes a bad read on the Pew Souter play. No way. Logan Stanley?

But also Stanley and Brandon Tanev got caught up with one another on a breakout. Pew Souter hit the post. Like in the latter half of the first period, the Jets started making exactly the types mistakes that feed the Canucks game. They get kind of a soft Kyle Conner goal in the second period. Great shot, but Thatcher Demko has to have that one. And then in the third, they did figure it out. And the moment that stood out to me for when you first saw it was Josh Morrissey,

up high, show pressure arrives. I think it was Kiefer Sherwood, you know, effectively, like cutting off the top really aggressively. And he just kept skating. Like he, instead of passing or shooting or rushing or rushing your. shot. He just kept skating. He just took the lane that was being given to him, which took him almost right behind the net. He fed it to Adam Lowry, and Lowry got the Jets best scoring chance of the first period. That was when I was like, this is how the Jets have to attack the Canucks.

It took them a little bit longer to get there, but by the third period, I thought they were doing it repeatedly, and that's what sort of shifted momentum and let the Jets quality show through, which was fun to see. But, you know, there's not a lot of defensive teams like the Canucks. I don't know that there's, you know, like the stars don't play that way, the cold nights don't play that way. Like, it's not like there's going to be a ton of teams that Winnipeg bumps into that's going to attack it like this. But I do think it's interesting that, you know, I guess the sense of being able to freelance when you need to as well is that a limitation on this Jets team. I don't have the answer, just like something I thought about watching it. Yeah, it's an individual

over his team question, right? I think that's kind of what makes them a bit unique compared to some of the other contenders. I did think it was an important game to see from the Jets. They don't really have anything else to prove the rest of this regular season. They're pretty secure in their first spot atop the West, although I guess you could argue they have a chance to close out the president's trophy here and ensure home ice throughout. But they lose that game, what was it, 10 days ago or so now in Vancouver, 6-2.

And it wasn't necessarily a 6-2 type of game from how it was played. But the scoreboard was still about as. lopsided as you're going to see from a Jets game going in that direction this season. And then now getting this rematch at home, I think you and I both wanted to see them take it seriously. And a tone for that and also show adjustments. And you could see them in real time in this game, which I thought was important. And so I thought it was a great showing from them. And especially, I mean, the cherry on top or the final dagger with that perfetti goal where he schools Derek Forber one-on-one.

And then kind of flying through the air, rips it past. Thatcher Demico was so cool. cool and you and I have spoken about Perfetti all season and how much he rocks but it's still he actually had a really poor game yes until that moment I was actually watching him thinking uh you know this is it's he's not quite on well the jets are experimenting with their middle six right now right they put Lowry with with the Eilers and he's playing with uh with the messnikov and eater on the third line but yeah I mean guys like perfetti are important for the jets because not only do they give them additional avenues for creating offense but also like guys like

like that and Eelers and obviously Connor as you saw in this game possess some of that individual game breaking skill that they're going to need and when they can't just rely on the team concepts that they have all season and that's what also just makes it so infuriating

thinking about the last post season not that this is why they lost to the abs they got completely dismantled defensively but the fact that Rick Bonas at the time was like you know what I'm going to play Axel Fial Biela Janssen instead and he didn't get in the lineup for what, the first four games of that series and thinking about how ridiculous,

obviously that was even at the time. But now you watch the way the season is playing out. It's like, yeah, Perfetti is very important to this team. And this is something we should be leaning into even more than we already have. Yeah. And I do want to see him play with Eilers again. I did think that, you know, that would have given that lineup more pop, which they needed today, even though they did eventually break through with, you know, the Appleton and Perfetti goals. So those two lines, mismatch though they were, did make the difference in the third period, ultimately. So I suppose hat tip to Scott Arniel. But I ultimately want to see Perfetti and Eelers work together.

By the way, not to sidetrack us too much because you and I are pretty prone to doing that and we have a lot to get through today. But I wish people, they're listening right now, could see our setup. We're here sitting in your living room. We've got the NCAA championship game between Denver and Boston College on the TV. I'm like cuddling on the couch with my nephew Wallace, your beautiful Bernadoodle, who by the way, got this, you got him this mullet haircut that he's a dog. now. I was joking that he looks like an O HL player during a Memorial Cup run. You were saying he looks more like a Minnesota high school hockey player when they do those like closeups when they skate

in and the camera just pants of their hair. Yeah, my wife's very attached to the tuft on the top of his head so he dropped him off at the groomer and the guy apologized to me when I picked him up. He was like, I've never done a Mohawk before and I was like, first of all, you've done a mullet. And secondly, never apologize to the coolest thing that's ever happened to my dog. I'm so excited. Here's more money. He was like, who? So on the blues, they're up now to 87 points and 75 games. They have home games this week against the Red Wings and Penguins, both in which they should take care of business.

And then they have a rematch at home against the Aves next weekend. I think I haven't looked at the models updated, especially after today's Canucks loss. I imagine they've got to be in like the 85. I think even in the 80s right now. So they're in a pretty good spot. I mean, if anything, I think they're very live to pass. the Minnesota Wild, who they're tied with in points right now for the first wildcard spot.

So Calgary still has two games and three games in hand. Two games in hand on the Canucks and three on the Blues, I believe. Right. So three games in hand and they're at what, 80 points? Yeah. 80 points. So seven back with three games in hand, I'd guess that the models will probably price. Like I'm guessing Vegas will price Calgary at something like plus 400, right?

Which is about 25%. So I'd guess the blues are south of 80 still. Well, and with all these things, the blues have. the regulation wins, tiebreaker essentially sewn up already against all these teams. So it's functionally an extra point to whatever. They're ahead in the standings. But you kind of contrast, like this was a big week for this wildcard race. Not only was it entertaining and a lot of fun hockey, but the blues go in and take that game

in Colorado. The Canucks on the other hand, we just talked about the loss in Winnipeg. We should also lump in on Friday night, the game in Columbus, which was one of the more entertaining games of the year, although I was texting with our pal Kevin Woodley. Oh, the goaltending was. It's always funny because I'm like, man, that was so fun. And he was just like, it was via text, but I could tell he was just disgusted. He was like, that was one of the worst goaltending performances I've seen in three years.

He was personally offended by what he saw in that game, but it was 3-0 Canucks, 3-3, 5, 3-6. I love Merzleek and stunting, though, in the shootout. The shut it down. Yeah, given that he had been outplayed by Kevin Lankin and who had his worst game of the season. Yeah. It's just like, what are we doing here? But the emotional roller coaster was phenomenal. Right? I mean, again, I think this is, this is where it is. You have this week, especially, right? You had sort of that Canucks game against the New Jersey Devils, right? Where they tie it up late and win it in the shootout with an insane Le Caramackie finish. Then you had that blues Nashville game, which, you know, the blues look flat and then they take it over late and they win. And then you had, you know, that Columbus, Vancouver game, which was just wild.

like completely nuts. You had these phenomenal flames games, that flames game against the Oilers last night, Drysidal putting the team on his back, but, you know, just like Nazim Cadbury won't stop scoring, the clutchest goals you've ever seen. Like, it's an incredible run for that Calgary team,

even though they're not, like, picking up the extra points that they need sometimes. They're getting overtime. They're playing well. They're fighting hard. And then you get, you know, that phenomenal Aves blues game. And then that Canucks,

Jets game today and it's just like man like if you've been tuned to the western conference playoff race over the last five six days and like really following it life and death like this has been phenomenal hockey and yet i'm sure most people are paying closer attention to the eastern conference playoff race which is not delivering unless you're an ottawa senator's man okay well here's my question to you and not to put the the cart before the horse but i was thinking about this because obviously the whole conversation has been for wildcard two in the west and the blues kind of building this lead now against the Canucks and the flames, and it's still up in the air somewhat. But as I said, I think the wild have a game in hand, but we saw them lose again over the weekend

to the Devils at home. Now they're tied in points with the blues. Yeah. They also play Calgary again. Yes. And Vancouver again down the stretch. And they've been struggling. They're obviously banged up.

Finding ways to score goals is going to be tough for them. But I was just thinking about this because you and I might be going to Vegas, for example, to watch whoever the Golden Knights take on in round one. And I'm excited either way. But I think now the realistic possibility that it could be a matchup against this really hot blues team that's playing remarkably well is all of a sudden much more intriguing to me. For sure. And it poses this fascinating question of sort of like team that's coming into the playoffs hot, what type of a draw that is for the number one seed in their division, whether it's going to be the Jets or the Golden Knights and kind of how that shakes out. I'm really excited to not only follow the wild guard race perspective from who's going to actually make the playoffs or not, but who's actually going to play.

this blues team if they keep playing this way for the final seven games. Yeah, and I mean, sounds like Caprizov maybe back this week. So that'll obviously be a storyline to watch in that duel between the Wild and the Blues. And yeah, I mean, I think the Wilde do have the game in hand over St. Louis, which matters a ton. But, you know, from Calgary's perspective, the fact that you've got two games in hand on the Wild, three games in hand on the Blues, and you still have that game on California. Algari ice against the wild. I mean, certainly, you know, like, like, I think from a Canucks perspective, for example, right? The idea of like, well, the wild are the easier team to catch.

Like, well, if the wild go 500 the rest of the way, they get to 95 points, right? Yeah. And to get to 96 points, because the Wilde are going to hold the tiebreaker, the Canucks are going to need every point available to them except one, right? Like, they're going to need 15 of 16 points to match with the wild do if they go 500. So that to me is not realistic, really, at all. But I think from Calgary's perspective, the math's a little bit less daunting, a little bit more realistic where you could at least dream like, hey, if the blues are too hot now, maybe the wild, if we win that four point game and, you know, effectively only slip up once or twice,

maybe that's doable. Okay, well, let's put a pin in that. When we come back from break, we're going to jump back into Calgary. We're going to talk about them in the game they played on Saturday. night against the Edmonton Oilers or should I say the Leon Dreis idols. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we were back here in the Hockeypedio cast doing our Sunday special with Thomas Trans. Tom, while we were at break, you were checking the updated playoff odds. What are they?

Yeah, so these are average odds checking on Action Network. So they're compiled from a variety of different sources. And yeah, the, it's like, so some books, the books that have already updated and have it listed have, have the Canucks at an average of plus 650 now to make the playoffs, which is about a 13% implied probability. The blues are minus 550 favorites now to make the playoffs. That's an 85% implied probability roughly. And then the Calgary Flames would be at plus 390.

I'd said in segment one that they were likely to be in the plus 400 range. So that's 20% still. Okay. As we teased, we've seen this flames team. I think the past, what, five, six games now, they had that trip out east. They got blown out by the Leafs to start off, but then they played a couple really good games in a row, a couple traumatic comebacks, wind up winning in an overtime on the island. As you said, Cadbury's been a beast scoring all these huge goals.

I think the Jonathan Huberto redemption of him having this awesome season and scoring a bunch of these goals and being a stud on the penalty kill has been really fun to watch and a treat. They played an incredibly entertaining game to close out Saturday night schedule in Edmonton. And I want to talk about Leandro said. Because we saw his return, what he missed four games, after suffering that injury. McDavid's obviously been out as well. And it was about as MVP alpha of an individual performance as you're going to see. I'm going to rattle off a few stats for you to just demonstrate that.

And the reason why I love these is because they simultaneously highlight his individual brilliance. and also are so damning of the team around him right now in the state of the Oilers and the lack of fastball that we like to talk about with them. He played 20 minutes at even strength in this game. In that time, the Oilers generated 21 shots on goal. They generated three goals. Now, he scored two of them, and the third was a cross-ice primary assist that he helped set up on the other goal.

In the 34 minutes, he didn't play at even strength. They got outshot 17 to 7 by the flames. They outscored two to nothing. And he caps it all off with this overtime winner that I tweeted out the clip of where he out muscles a flame along the boards for a loose puck. Then he does a middle lane drive, gets the puck back, and uncorks this just unfair wrister by Dustin Wolf, which he had no chance on.

And it went barren in. And it was great theater. It was an incredible performance. I thought it was a reminder because once he got hurt and we didn't know how long his absence would be, it felt like the path was really paved for Connor Hallibuck to actually win the MVP this season. I know I think it was the last time you and I talked, we spoke about this race between the two and your struggles as a voter of how to treat goalies

in this context and kind of the hoops they have to jump through. If Dreisaito was going to miss even more time than the four games he ultimately missed, it felt like there was going to be no other worthy contender in this case, though. Now Dreisaito comes back and how. has this type of a game to kind of remind everyone of what he's been doing this entire season. Right. And I just thought it was such a badass performance from him on a really big stage like that. They seemed to have zero answers without Drysidal.

Like he was their entire team offensively. Yeah. They didn't generate anything about him. Like I said, they had seven shots on goal in 34 even strength minutes when he wasn't on the ice. Like that's hard to do. And that's the state of the Oilers right now. I mean, he's got nine more goals. than anyone else.

If he finishes strong, and these sound like lofty totals, even for him, nine goals in the final nine games and 16 points, he's got three games against the sharks. I think it's actually doable in that context. He's going to finish with 60 goals and 120 points. And that's about as unassailable of a resume,

I think, even as obviously dominant as Hellebuck's been in today's climate. Yeah, I just think it's like, you watch him play and what he's been doing all year. And not only that, but every step of the way, whatever lingering few haters there were

of Leandro Seidel or the retorts of like, well, he plays David, he's a powerplay merchant, this and that, like, oh, the underlying numbers aren't actually that great. All of his 5-on-five shares are like bordering on 60% range this season. In this game, he's playing with Victor Arvinson

and Faciliport Coles in his winger, some Corey Perry as well. He's carrying them around. He's creating everything. Most of his offense has come at even strength. He's got an NHL record, six overtime winners. Like, he's just checked every single box. Any, I mean, we've loved him regardless, but like, there can be no more haters of his game.

Like, he's literally answered everything and done everything at the highest possible level, and he's been far and away the best skater that I watched this season. Yeah, I agree. That the release on the game winner, I mean, the release of the game tying goal, too, but the release on the game winner is criminal. criminal. Like I genuinely think that law enforcement needs to get involved. It's just there's nothing else like it in hockey. And the fact that that's for him, given what he can do as a passer, given what he does, you know, protecting the puck, what he can do down low, what he can do through the neutral zone despite not being fast. I mean, it's ridiculous. It really is. The MEP race is interesting now because I believe L.A's check, Dr. Sied 11th. and Hellebuck are pretty much at a dead heat.

I think it's like plus 105 or just out plus 110 for Hellebuck. Then McKinnon's at plus 600 just because he's been the points leader for the majority of the season. The reason why I wanted to bring that up is because I was noticing, I think, fourth on the list. It doesn't matter because he's not going to win. But Nikita Kutrov is plus 3,200. And I just think that gap is unfounded. Like right now, he's past three games, 11 points in 54 minutes played. You don't have to be great at math to know that that's a goal that the lightning are generating every four and a half minutes.

He plays during that time. He leads the league in 5-15 points. He's tied now for total points with McKinnon. He's played over 200 fewer minutes than him. I just feel like if your argument for why Nathan McKinnon should wind up as a finalist and third in this race is he leads the league in points, that's not even necessarily the case anymore. Right. Just by raw points and you can get into the 5-on-fives that I mentioned.

And so I feel like, I don't know, Kuturov just, it doesn't really matter. He's not going to win it. But I just feel like he's not getting nearly enough respect and love for the season he's having yet again. Yeah. So I think there's this understanding, and it's correct, that Connor McDavid is the best player in hockey. And that hasn't, he hasn't even been the best skater on his own team this year. Yeah. But it's still true.

And yet. The idea of Connor McDoward? The idea of, well, and what he's done. I mean, the level that he can be at is the highest. And for the most part, he's been at that level consistently throughout his career, even if he's having an offseason this year. And so the next tier, though, right? It feels like McKinnon often is put in it alone.

And for me, I think McKinnon, dry-sidal, you know, Matthews are sort of all in my mind, basically right there. Now, the gap between those guys in McDavid to me is relatively large, but that that's sort of how it works on the extreme ends. I just think that there's a few guys who also belong in it, Kutrov being chief among them, who are like very much at that level two. I think maybe it's because he's a winger.

Maybe that's part of it, right? The other guys are at least nominally sentiment that causes him to sort of be slept on. But I also think... Well, and that his name's not Nick. And his name's not Nick. Or Leon. But I think Barkov belongs in that class too.

And we were talking and you suggested, and I think you're right, Jack Eichol. Yeah, I think if you're doing top five love for the MEP Award this year, I really think Jack Eichol deserves more merit. He's not even listed because it's just those four guys because everyone is kind of out of the picture in terms of what the final ballot's going to look like. But look at Eichael's resume this season. He's fourth in the league in scoring. He's on pace for 106 points.

no Vegas Golden Night previously ever even and as we're talking Dreisdell here and how much dog he has and him of course Chimes in He's going to be the first Golden Knight He already is to ever get over 90 points He's going to probably eclipse 100 by season's end He

The entire power play runs through him And what he's able to do as a playmaker And how much space he creates for everyone As a passer and obviously he has a one-time Threat as well on that flank and this is the number one rank power play in the league that's scoring nearly 12 goals an hour. Vegas in his 5-15 minutes is up 65 to 36 this season, despite the fact that he's played 300 minutes with Tanner Pearson in 2025

and Victor Oliveson, not to mention guys, like they sprinkle in like Kean Kolassar, Alexander Holtz early in the year. They can play whoever with him. He's only taken three penalties this season in 1,500 minutes, which is crazy because he competes off the puck. Yeah. So well. Well, it's the defensive side of his game.

too that I think is just hit hit another level. I remember young Jack Eichael. I remember young Jack Eichael where he had this explosive gear as a puck carrier that was kind of completely unique. But, you know, I'd watch him as a younger player while I worked with Florida, for example, and like Barkov would generally win that matchup. And, you know, I just don't think that that would happen today, right? Like, I mean, I think there's a different level now with Jack Eichael that's in terms of his two-way play. I think we saw it at the Four Nations. I think he was a beast defensively, the Four Nations.

I think he's been a beast for Vegas defensively all season. I think it's that level up of his two-way game that's perhaps been the most notable area of growth for him. And he's carrying a team that's had a bunch of injuries that is very quietly fourth in the league in point percentage, like running away with the Pacific Division. So it's individual success, team success. He's doing it all.

And that's why I feel like he deserves more love in this. We've got about 10 minutes left. Do you want to end talking Madvei Mitchkov? Because he's really caught our eye. And obviously we saw, speaking of big storylines, that's trying to what we try to cover in the show, Tortorilla quitting. Yeah, I felt a little bad for Torz,

which is not usually my MO. Yeah, I thought you were going to come here to do a victory gloating lap. No, no. I mean, I think we all know what Torz is. Torz is a technically excellent NHL bench boss. And beyond that, every support staffer who's ever worked for him. I'm talking like directors of hockey ops, medical guys, equipment guys, PR guys, swear by. Right?

Like a thoughtful, conscientious human being. So I'm definitely not like, I think we know what Torz is. Torts wears people down over the course of a season. It's not just because of who he is. It's also because he overuses top guys. But you need to win a game tomorrow. Torts is on a short list of like 10 human beings. You trust to do it.

Like one game versus aliens, fate of the world. Torz is on a short list of coaches I'd want coaching to grind out that win. I think he's a technically brilliant coach. Yeah, one of 32 for sure. And I felt bad for him after the Mitchkov breakout game against Buffalo. Yeah. Right? Because the truth is, is that for the most part, I would say,

Torz's Mitchkov usage was not something we would look at askance and be like he has failed to adapt to the contemporary game or he struggles to work with. Like, Mitchcov's been heavily used. I think Michkoff plays with enough dog that he's like a torts type player. I think that's been evident all season. And the truth is that Mitchkov's late push for the Calder, Mitchkov's overall offensive breakout, you know, I feel like we finally started paying attention to it

because of all the offense that he produced in Torz's first or the Flyers first game of the post-torts era. Yeah. But really, like, since the Four Nations face off, he's been a dominant force. Well, I'd agree with you in terms of the usage in the aggregate or for season. I think there were moments within that, certainly where there was a lot of, like, lesson teaching and benching in game and taking away minutes for the greater good. And that very may be the case. But it's very, I think the timing is a great bit where two games from Mitchcoff now since the coaching

change, four goals, one primary assist, 11 shots on goal, 2028 and then 1958 in terms of usage in the two. but you're right. I think the extension goes all the way back to Four Nations. He's got 19 5-on-5 points in 18 games, which leads the league. I believe second is 16 or so for Sidney Crosby. I think that's remarkable considering the fact that this is a player who, in adjusting to the NHL, registered one total five-on-five secondary assist in his first 13 NHL games, all of his offense was coming either in overtime or on the power play. He wasn't producing anything. even strength. Now he's the most prolific 5-1-5-scorer in the league over the past, whatever, six weeks. By season end, he's on pace for 27 goals and 63 points, which I think is quite a feat

for any 20-year-old rookie, yet alone a guy who's adjusting to his first year in North America ahead of schedule while playing on a team that's, quite frankly, doesn't have the talent to make the most of his own individual skills, as you can see by the fact there's still 30th in the league on the power play, so he's not even getting the benefit of like, oh, well, the event strength game will come along, but he'll be able to cook on the power play. It hasn't even been the case there, and he's still been this productive. And I think the other thing to note that I'm really excited about for him is a full offseason after experiencing the NHL of what he's going to look like in year two as a 21-year-old,

assuming he makes full use out of this off-season in terms of like conditioning and strengthening, because I don't think it's an accident for a player like this. And I think you and I even right after the Four Nations ended and we're getting back to the NHL schedule, we're talking about how a guy like this could benefit because you might run into this rookie wall where you're not used to playing this many games. And all of a sudden, you get two weeks off to just rest your body. Totally. And so like if you look at the KHL schedule, it's like 45 to 50-ish games that he was playing

every year as a pro for the past three or four years. And so now you're getting into game 60, game 70. It makes sense that your body would kind of struggle to adjust to that. I think he's going to be much more prepared for a full season of that next season. And so I'm really excited. I feel like when we're doing my guy's list next year, maybe he'll be a bit overqualified. But I feel like what he could do could be truly special based on what we're seeing over these past six weeks.

Yeah. And I think that's sort of where I'd come back to the thing where it's like, you know, people posting the photos of Wayne Gretzky with like, you know, Mitchkov without torts, right? Right. And I just think ultimately the test of, you know, selective scratches, selective benchings, lesson teaching, right? Should be, are you better at the end of the year than you were at the start?

And I think with Mitchcov, in terms of how we talk about torts and what the season was for the flyers, you know, Mitchcove leaps over that bar, right? Like that to me, far be it from me to be the guy defending torts, but I will in this instance. Well, yeah, I'd say he's transcended his environment. Yeah. Which is what you want to see from a highly skilled player like this in year one. And also, you know, I do think when we think about Philadelphia and we think about this season, right? Let's be real.

If they land a top coach, right, you know, whether it's Carl from Denver or I know talk, it's been heavily rumored, although the Connox insists he's not an unrestricted position. Wow, that would be great for Mad Bay Mitch God. No, but more, more, more. Matt Bay, I'm going to need you to reprogram your game, be a little more north-outh. Look, I think Tocke would be awesome in Philadelphia if they hired him. I think he's a great coach. And I don't think he's what's been wrong with Elias Pedersen.

But the truth is that if that team, you know, you nail the coaching hire and you nail a goaltender. And I mean, what's really going to be the gap in your expectations for that team and Ottawa or Detroit next season? season. Like, it's not going to be big. I feel like they're on the right track because obviously the past two years, especially the first half of each season, they were just hanging around the wild card picture and in a playoff spot. And it was clear every step of the way that Danny Breyer despised that. Like, that isn't his vision for the team. He wants the sock to get a better pick and get more like high end talent into the system. They're obviously, especially after the Farabu

frost trade that they made a couple weeks before the deadline, there are, with so much cap space. This offseason, a ton of draft capital as well. We'll see whether they make some sort of a big push in a trade for a center, potentially someone that fits the timeline a bit more for this team. But they can kind of explore any avenue they want now. And I feel like considering the market that's not going to quit the team regardless because Flyers fans are so diehard and the fact that you're owned by Comcast

and just have as much money as you want, like using this timeline to properly, rebuild the right way and and leveraging all of those resources to your full advantage is what they should be doing as opposed to striving for a quick payday of two or three home games before you lose in five in round one and don't really have anything to show for it beyond that. So do you want to talk quickly, Jacob Chikrin? Sure. Because we had in terms of like big the contract, NHL storylines obviously saw him get the eight-year extension this week as well.

And I thought that's a good place. Out on light bulbs, of course. It's amazing that he's been shooting the lights out this season. 9 million per for his age 27 through 34 seasons. It'll be 35 when expires in 2033. It's always wild to me now to be referencing all these timelines that end in the 30s. I know. For guys who you remember being drafted?

I think it's fine. I think it's fine. Obviously you're buying high from the perspective of he has 20 goals. The season is shooting 11%. His PDO is high. Like everyone's in the capitals. Like obviously, this is the peak of his value, I think. And this wasn't where he was at this time last year.

At the same time, though, he's not the age of your typical guy that would be on UFA, right? Because he's still, I believe, what, 26, he's turned 27. You've got John Carlson's $8 million coming off the books after next season. Also, if you kind of fast forward to, what, 27, 28, when the cap's going to be $113.5 million, that would be the equivalent to like a $7 million this year in terms of what that will represent as a percentage. So I think that's pretty fine. I think I wouldn't expect him to score 20 goals again next season, although he is one of the few defensemen who shoots this way, right?

And you look at it like pretty much all of his goals have been full marks of him stepping in and picking the corner on a rister. Yeah, well, and if you play a forward role on PP1, you know, like that's going to. Especially with like they have obviously with this group of bringing in Matt Roy this summer. Yeah. The level Sandine's taking his game too. We love Farivari. Carlson's there for another year.

Yeah. Like they have enough guys where. you can end with Spencer Carberry being such a good coach. Like you can work around that skill set and cover for whatever deficiencies. And like he's a bad rush defender. He makes a lot of mistakes with a puck because he always has it. Like his all the tracking of him is like every zone, he's making a play with the puck and he's so puck dominant unlike a lot of his peers.

And so he's going to make mistakes and giveaways. But much like everyone they brought in and their pro scouting staff, they've been able to get the most out of them. And so I think it makes sense from a fit, although obviously eight by nine is always going to be. be kind of like a little bit of sticker shock. One thing I've been working on as a theory, I'm curious to get your thoughts on it. We haven't previously discussed it.

But one of the rare things we haven't previously discussed. Well, especially because it's a cross-sport comparison with football. So it's very rare that we wouldn't have brought this up. But, you know, one thing you see in the NFL, right, which has had, especially over the last five years, regular cap growth, right? 30 million a year cap growth, huge percentages of it, right? is that where sort of the advantages flow through. Now, obviously not a perfect comparison, right?

It is a hard cap, but there's non-guaranteed contracts. A lot of the mechanisms are more complicated in some ways than they are for hockey. But one of the advantages in an era of persistent cap growth that NFL teams that manage the books really well, Philadelphia being sort of like ground zero for that, is you get your work done as early as possible. And that's where the real benefits lie because the market. keeps getting reset, right? And I do think that that's something we could be coming into in hockey. Like the chicker in numbers seem large today, but who's to say that they're going to seem large in 18 months? In fact, it seems pretty unlikely that they'll seem that big in 18 months,

given some of the contractual commitments we could see from the Chicago Blackhawks to, you know, star forwards this summer. What Aaron Eckblad, I mean, If you see the chickering comp and your Aaron-Eckblad about to hit unrestricted free agency after a third consecutive deep playoff run, I mean, your eyes are literally the shape of money signs. There's also no one who's benefited more, I think, financially over the past three weeks or two weeks than Aaron Eckblad. Yeah. Because I think I've been very critical of him and how much Gus Forzing's been carrying him and his deficiencies as a skater at this point and how glacially slow he is. And they bring in Seth Jones and we're like, you know what? in this system, Seth Jones has stepped in, playing with Gus Forzing, it's going to be okay

for the final 20 games. And they've been such a mess in their own zone. And Seth Jones has visibly struggled in that role. And Aaron Eckblad must just be sitting there being like, yeah, I'm still valuable. So I'm just saying, in a world where Aaron Eckblad could be, you know, a few weeks away from beating that Chickren contract, right, with sort of a less glitzy scoring profile, frankly, the last couple years. but right-handed and has been on a persistent winner, right?

It's like... Well, if someone's giving an earmark by $72 million this summer, I guarantee you I will not like that deal. Well, no, I know. But then if you are entering this moment of persistent cap growth, we do need to begin to assess the value on contracts in a materially different way than we did during the flat cap era. Like the efficiency contest element,

which so defined the last decade of NHL hockey, should hopefully be over. And instead, in fact, you're hard pressed to identify good players to spend on. We could be entering that moment. And so I think that's the lens through which you have to interpret

this chikin contract. And honestly, prepare yourself for what comes next. Now, I honestly think we're at a point two where teams should be taking bigger swings than they ever have to lock in efficiencies. And with, for example, we're watching this BU Denver game, right? Like, you're going to have Ryan Leonard, you're going to have Gabe Perrault,

New York and Washington. Those are, you know, glitzy, high-profile teams. Those guys are probably going to turn pro. And then, you know, NHL teams typically want their guy to go to the American League so that they save that extra year and on and on. But it's like, I actually think at this moment right now, before the logic of, before the logic of this. Cap growth era kicks in. Like, if you're the caps, your interest should be, let's get Ryan Leonard to extension eligibility as quickly as possible.

And then try and lock him up at eight times four and a half before he's even like, this is the moment to be super aggressive. Because if we are going to be in these regularized periods, this moment of regular, predictable cap growth than getting your work done early and taking bigger swings, I think that's where the real efficiencies will lie. Well, and especially like the- What do you think of the theory overall? I like that because you've already seen it in the NHL with the goalie market.

Because you look at this year's UFA class and how names keep coming off the board and how bleak it is if you're like, all right, well, if this summer we're going to reevaluate and we're going to spend some money on a new goalie to come in and be our starter. Right. That guy just doesn't exist. Yeah. And so we've seen teams pay what we went a couple years of seeing them reluctant to do so, which is term to keep the guys they have that they like and they already feel like comfortable with.

And we've seen that across the board, whether it's Logan Thompson, whether it's Corolla of Malca, you go on down online. Kevin Lincoln. And so we still might come kind of what we did in the NBA where it's like, all right, cap's going up. Everyone's going to spend and lock these guys in. And then a couple years later you look back and you're like, maybe that wasn't such a good idea. That could very well happen here, especially with goal.

because of the volatility of their performance. But for the time being, I do think we're on like the start of that path and you're already seeing that with that market specifically. Yeah. And that's a good point. And the chickering deal for me just felt like this pivot point where everyone was shocked. It's like I feel like the chickering deal should be the last moment where we actually have sticker shock.

These contracts are going to become absurd. They're going to have no connection to the flat cap era we lived through. and these markets are all going to be detonated. And once we get to a point where this league is functioning the way that all these other leagues with regular cap growth have, like that framework's going to be detonated every single time to the point where you're going to have people saying stuff like, the cap is fake, right?

And it won't be. And it won't be. But that's healthy. That's good for the players. That's good for the fans. We don't want to be living in a world where, you know, we're like criticizing a team for resigning a good player, right? Like that's not what we want.

We want to be, you know, talking about the hockey. And that's sort of the chickering deal for me just felt like the canary in the coal mine. A moment where we were still looking at contracts through a narrow lens that's actually already expired. We just don't know it yet. I feel like that's incredibly naive of you to think that's the last time that's going to happen, though, because flash forward to July 1st. I guarantee you you're going to see a lot of that still. No, of course. Which I think actually could be okay.

Because I'm of two minds of it, right? On the one hand, I'm with you. on the other, just because you have cap space and a good player, it doesn't mean that you should box yourself in necessarily in terms of contractually, right? Like, come the offseason,

there's going to be interesting ways. The caps are a great example of this because they don't need the UFA market because they've done such a good job of identifying distressed assets or guys who think they can get more out of that are already signed with other teams, bringing them in and then getting more out of them.

And so the more guys you sign like that, the fewer options you have to explore those routes. So not that they've done that here. I actually think it's totally fine, and I think Jekron's going to be good for them for the next handful of years. But point well taken about the new climate, I guess, we're living in. All right, you got anything to plug here on the way out? We'll be covering the stretch run at the athletic.

Everything Canucks that's fit to print. Looks like they're going to need a miracle run to stave off elimination from it. Don't sound so sad about it. Hey. It's fun to cover the playoffs. And, you know, the Canucks haven't made the playoffs in back-to-back years in back-to-back full season since 2012. So the fact that that's not going to happen again, a little galling after last year. All right, buddy. Well, this was fun. It's great to be back with you on Sundays. We'll be back. Of course, next Sunday, get into the Discord and join us.

These shows always manufacture great bits in there. The listeners love it. I promise I'll post a picture. of me and Wallace in there as well, so you can see how cute of a visual it is. Go listen to Friday show, My Return Show. I had a star skating coach, Luke Chocot on with me, and that was really awesome. And I know it's a topic you and I are both interested in terms of skills coaches and skating coaches. Absolutely. They're involving with players, and maybe we'll revisit that more down the line.

We'll be back on Tuesday with plenty more. So that's all for today. Thank you for listening to the Hockey Ocast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. Thank you.