The Hockey PDOcast - The Western Conference Elite

Episode Date: April 5, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to break down the current state of the Western Conference, how the teams at the top are playing right now, and the road map for them ahead of the postseason. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Progressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast. My name is Dimitri Filippovich, and joining me to close out the weekend style is my good buddy, Thomas Strands. Tom, what's going on, man? Not much, my dude. I'm very excited this weekend.

I'm going up to the Okinawagin. I'm going to see a women's select tournament featuring generational Canadian blue liner Chloe Pomerano, hoping, hoping that the colonelow Rocket Luz as well tonight so that I can see Tijiginla finish off the Wenatchie Wild on Sunday afternoon. You've got some good mileage recently out of writing up like elite young local talent. Yeah. It's been coming through here.

It's been pretty fun to follow. It's a wild amount of talent coming out of this city in this region, right? And so in particular, I'm going to go up and do some coverage, talk to Byron Ritchie, who works at that Rink Academy up in West Colonna. you know, Byron Ritchie and Jerome McGinler are both coaches there, right? They both have sons. They were born while they were teammates a week apart. Both will be first runners this year.

So it's a pretty fun story, and I'm looking forward to doing that. I'm looking forward to watching Chloe, who works at that rink, play as well. And of course, Gavin McKenna's out of there as well. And we're going to be hearing a lot more about him over the course of the next 18 months, for sure. I feel pretty confident about that. We both just recently got back from our trip to Denver. And as listeners, I'm sure I can tell from my voice, I'm still recovering. you miraculously just jump right back in action with your show right away.

I spent two days hooked up to a dual prong IV that was just pouring as much electrolytes and NHL hockey that I missed during our week away as I could. But it's good to be back. And I feel confident you and I are going to get some good banter out of this and have some fun chatting about a variety of stuff. But yeah, we're also going to talk about our trip to Denver because we got to see a really fun game between the avalanche and Predators. And it was cool to, you know, I feel like you and I have been doing this for long enough now that we've become a little bit jaded just in the sense that, like, it is our profession, right? So, like, especially when you go and you're sitting in the press box and you're like,

you're writing up a game in particular. I usually just go and just kind of to get a feel for what's going on with the eye test. But you view it through that lens, right? And just going and getting to enjoy it as a fan and just like cheer for it. And in particular, like, that game gave us such high event, fun hockey that it was a very easy one to get emotionally invested into. But it was, it was a much needed experience, I thought, did you kind of just, I view it through that side of the fence, I guess.

As anyone knows about me, I don't bet on hockey. Anyone who listens regularly can tell you that I don't bet on hockey, but I was joking in the league. You'll bet on anything else. I'll bet on anything else, truly. But I don't bet on hockey. But I was joking the whole day about how, like, the alternate over was like the bet for that game. And then there's five goals in the first period, nine after 40 minutes. And it was just thrilling.

I mean, we got to see McKinnon take over a game. I honestly don't think I'd gone and sat in the stands and, like, had beers. and watched a game like that with just the boys in honestly like probably like seven years. You know, it's been too long. And I think I actually like one takeaway from your bachelor party is I came away being like, really I've got to pick like two or three games a year that I just want to see. And I should go see those games just as a fan just to like remind myself why I love this so much as opposed to, you know, it becoming like the humdrum hamster wheel that is that is working

through an NHL season. That's a really wholesome takeaway. My takeaway was that at age 32 now, I just simply cannot recover the way I used to. Aging curves are real. I need to take it easy. And so I'm glad that you're here today because everyone knows, I can just wind you up and just let you cook for a while and we might need to do so. I got you, but here's the plan for today. So I kind of along the lines of us going to that game, getting to watch the avalanche in person and the Predators who, I know they blew that lead in that game. but I think you and I both came away from it pretty impressed in terms of their playing style, their ability to hang with Colorado in that setting and the individual talent itself.

I want to take stock of the Western Conference, in particular up at the top, right? Talk a little bit about sort of where teams are at right now with their status updates, the road ahead for them, kind of how things are shaken out. Because you and I, one of my favorite shows I've done so far this year was right before Christmas, we got together and we did a bear versus bull case for the Western Conference teams. And it was a really good way, I guess, of just like navigating the conference and figuring out what matters or what doesn't. Somehow it's been over three months since then. I know.

And so time has flown by, but a lot has changed. And so I thought this would give you a good opportunity to do so again. So do you want to start with you? You were still going to revisit? Well, let's revisit it. But obviously, like, put a different spin on it. We don't also have to cover every team and be kind of beholden to that. But I just think there's a few notes or sort of things that have caught my eye in the past week or 10 days that I've been off that I've been thinking about.

that I wanted to sort of pitch you on and we can just pitch each other on takes and go from there. Want to start with the abs? Because they are fresh in the mind and we just referenced seeing them in person. Let's start with the abs. I mean, I came away from it,

not that it was necessarily like a revelation, but just getting to see it in that setting against what I view is a very quality opponent in the National Predators, coming away very impressed with their ability that I still think is pretty much unparalleled in today's league. of just ratching it up

up to like an entirely different gear when they need to, right? And you can sort of see that where the momentum builds McKinnon and McCar start flying around there and the other team sort of gets on their back heel and just starts essentially holding on for dear life and hoping that they can survive it

and that they'll settle down for a little bit so they can kind of get their bearings again. And they didn't in that game. They did not stop at any point as the game went along. And that's what I came away from just being very impressed because I feel like there's some teams, we'll talk about here, in particular the team you cover the Canucks, where they're sort of

relegated to having to play a very specific style of game, which is good when it works, but in a playoff setting where you are going to play various opponents if you're going to make a long run, you're going to be put into uncomfortable situations, and you're not always going to get to dictate terms. And this avalanche team, I feel like regardless of the score or whatever the other team is throwing at them, can essentially absorb that and be down a couple goals and still feel very confident they can come back and win that game. The avalanche, I think, have, we've talked a lot, not just you and I, but the whole, you know, analysts covering this league, I think have talked a lot about how it feels wide open this season.

It doesn't feel like there's this overwhelming team. There's certainly not a team that's going to go off for, what, 120 points or, or, you know, those sorts of President's trophy wins that we see sometimes where there's a team that really laps the field in terms of points all, in terms of overall quality, in terms of goal differential. And yet it says here that with their work at the trade deadline, the avalanche have become that team and we just haven't maybe woken up to it yet, especially because, you know, I think the abs have had some bad luck since the trade deadline in a lot of ways. They're kind of riding along with the percentages going against them and yet they're controlling play and generating scoring chances like no one else in the league right now. I just think the middle stat fit, and you can see it. Like, middle stat didn't have the impact on that game, obviously, that McKinnon did. But the middle stat stylistic fit, his work down low weirdly on the power play, but like as a finesse netfront guy, I think has added a lot to that team. And obviously the ability to play Avs hockey in more minutes when McKinnon is not on the ice, just opens up so many possibilities for them.

I think that's a team that has truly leveled up in front of our eyes over the course of the past month without the results. catching up to it. It hasn't been like a Dallas-like last month. True. And so I think people are sleeping on the abs as even as they've, in my mind anyway, truly established themselves as the class of the league. Yeah, and you sort of see that where obviously there's going to be a skill drop off when McKinnon's line isn't out there, right? But with middle stat and then even with the bottom six now with guys like Trenton and Duhame, they're able to still keep that pace up where they're not having a slow down and then work their way back up to speed the game up when the top line

comes out there, right? And I think that makes other teams very uncomfortable, where they're essentially taking them into the deep end and being like, we're just not going to take our foot off the gas pedal here. And eventually, you're going to either slow down or get tired or we're going to expose some sort of breakdown within your system. And there's very few teams they can kind of get away with that. I think that's by design based on the players. They went out and specifically identified and acquired at the deadline. Yeah. And I mean, you get Nachushkin back in this lineup, right? You get Trennan, I know he's been out for a little bit, but he was in the lineup when we watched the monster revenge game against the Predators, which was fun. Also, I mean, we saw Kilmacar scored

the hockey equivalent of like a fadeaway jumper. One of the coolest finishes I've seen all season. Honestly, it was. And then we saw McKinnon. I mean, there were five or six rushes up the ice where it's just like that. It looks like, it looks like when you watch like old Barry Sanders highlights. He almost looks like a running back that can't be tackled in terms of the way that he just functions as a puck carrier and just like relentlessly works and threatens until he finds a glorious scoring opportunity. He took over that game. I really struggle to imagine a world where he's not the Hart Trophy winner this year. Well, it's going to be quite a debate. I think there's some very good candidacies.

And we can get into that later. But I just think in general, I'm with you on the point that seeing him in person while he's operating at this frequency is an experience that I wish like everyone. can enjoy at least once. And just getting a season, like, we were like center ice, we had a perfect angle at it. It was just phenomenal. And we were with a couple people who aren't hockey fans and heading into the, like, we're walking into the rank and they're like, all right, like, you guys cover hockey. What should we watch for?

Like, what should we, what should we keep an eye on? And we're like, I think it's going to come very obvious who's very good and who isn't. And within a couple shifts, it was like, oh, yeah, this is number 29. He's flying around at a just entirely different pace than everyone else. Yeah, they're unbelievable. Do we know if they're getting Ladduscock back? I don't know. I would view that as, like, obviously no reporting here.

I would just view that as pure foul money at this point. Like, I don't think, like, penciling them in or relying on that is smart. He's like their potential should he come back. He's your Zach Parisei upgrade. I think that's right. But I think, like, the way they slot it in now, too, right? Because when Etruscan comes back, he can play on just, like, the handful of all handful lines with McKinnon and Randinen, where, like,

that size and speed is just terrifying. And then that allows them to play like middle stat with Lekhinen and Drewan potentially. And then you've got that bottom six and it really shakes out nicely. I also like the way that, you know, it's not too dissimilar from what Edmonton's been doing where they're just loading up as many McDavid Bouchard minutes as they can. But like they exclusively almost at this point, I think 70% of McKinnon's shifts are offensive zone starts and 70% of his minutes are with Kail Makar. Yeah. And that's in a lot of these like individual awards conversations somehow viewed as a negative where it's like, well, he's not having to do it all by himself because he's getting deployed in this way. And I think that in fact, every team should be doing that with their best players, right?

It's like, this is the way you squeeze out every single last ounce of offensive upside that you can is getting them out there in advantageous situations. Yeah. The deployment makes McKinnon more terrifying, makes him more valuable. Yes. It's not the deployment is context for his value. You see what I'm saying? Yep. Now, I do think the obviousness with which it's McKinnon driving the results should be factored in his context from a Carr's awards case for the Norris.

But for me, McKinnon's the best player this season, even though Connor McDavid remains the best player on the planet. Certainly the most forceful or like the most visibly obvious, right? Most authoritative, yeah. That's a good way to put it. In the 12 games since the deadline, you noted this, but north of 56% shares. all situations in shots, expected goals, high danger chances. And they've scored 46 goals in those 12 games, despite shooting under 10% as a team.

So you're right. Based on like their rush chances and also the skill level, I would expect that to go up at least like 1 or 2%. And if you're continuing this volume with higher efficiency, that's going to be pretty scary for teams to keep up with. They're going to destroy, they're going to destroy a couple teams in the playoffs, I think. Let's do the Vegas Golden Knights. Because I'm intrigued by their return to form because I,

I was quite skeptical around the trade deadline. Just watching them, it felt like acknowledging there were key pieces missing. I kept referencing that game they played against Vancouver, I think, like the day before the deadline, where the Canucks essentially got inside position on them and just did not let them start skating at any point. And they really couldn't keep up

with that sort of defensive pressure being applied all over the ice. And they looked entirely different from the Vegas Golden Knights team that certainly won the cup last year, but even the one we've become accustomed to over the years. They're 6'0 and 1 in their last seven. I think just as importantly, though, they've started to look like that version of the Golden Knights

where they're terrifying in transition. The most recent game against the Canucks, they deploy the tactic that they've used to great success in the past, which is every single 50-50 puck, either around the blue line or along the wall, is instantly going to get turned into a rush opportunity going out of the way where they flip the ice, the weak side defender just sprints up.

up the ice. And all of a sudden, they have a numerical advantage where it's a three on two or a two on one or even a breakway. And they just, they just, they span that. They just, they just pepper you with that. And eventually the sheer force of that is going to lead to some goals. It did in that game. And it was right from the outset, too. It's so significantly confused to Canucks team that's been dependent on a really aggressive four check in a neutral zone wedge. Like this Canucks team's defensive prowess is not built on like in zone excellence the way we usually think about it. it's really been built on the fact that they just don't surrender rush chances against, in part because they're impossible to get through, right?

And we've seen it occasionally, do you remember that Winnipeg Jets loss, the 4-2 Winnipeg Jets loss that the Canucks had? Yep. Where, you know, the Jets just moved the puck well, moved the puck well all game long. And finally they solved the Canucks and passed the puck into the net two times consecutively and it's like that's the Canucks weakness. But if you're a defensive team of the quality where it's like, hey, if you make seven straight consecutive, really productive and smart, aggressive skill plays,

yeah, you might find it opening. That's like a good weakness to have, right? And the way that Vegas spam that weak side, I'm really curious to see if other teams copy it against the Canucks because they were completely flummox defensively in a way we have not seen from that team since Bruce Boudreau was behind the bench. It's true. I think they're very, like, uniquely positioned to do that, right? Just because the personnel they have and also like the inherent playing style they've

utilized for a while. I'd still be looking at it if I was. I would as well. And also I would watch that and be like, all right, this is scary because this is the version of the Golden Knights that like we all have in our mind of what they did last postseason, right? In particular, I thought that was notable, was watching the way the top line is cooking right now with Eichael, Marcia So and Barbashev. They're the catalyst for that, right? Where like they're attacking off the rush the most. Since Eichael came back, really, he's been incredibly productive at high volume.

They're scoring a ton of goals for them. and they're doing so in this exact way we're describing. And so that's huge because I think there's still questions about, you know, Stone coming back, what he's going to look like, certainly Tomas Hurtle, how he's going to fit into all of this. But if you have that line in place, then all of a sudden, we're going to get into the William Carlson line and a few other wrinkles they can throw at you. But that gives you that sort of like anchor line to go head-to-head power versus power.

And it just reminded us of like maybe judging them based on those games where Ikel wasn't in the lineup. We can kind of throw that out because it's obviously just like a wildly different team when they have that center of just pushing you back the way he can with his speed. The way, it's interesting because he can push you back

with his speed, but I feel like increasingly he gives off a Joe Thornton vibe when you watch him play. Now, maybe he's a little less upright through the neutral zone. Like it's not a stylistic,

it's not a perfect stylistic match. But the way that he controls the game with the puck on his stick, the way that, you know, in some ways he like doesn't get pressure because defenders assume he knows the solution. He did one really exceptionally smart thing, something I haven't seen. He was handling the puck at the half wall in that game against Vancouver.

This didn't result in the goal. It was just extremely cool. He was handling the puck at the half wall and almost had like his right shoulder toward the goaltender, right? Like he's like so cleanly looking pass and his eyes are sort of looking between his two high options. and then he just quickly and in one motion shot it. And like somehow despite that position where like literally his outside hip is is pointing toward the endboards. He actually got like a fair bit of torque and challenged to Smith with a really sharp shot. And I was just watching that thinking, who else even tries that?

Like he literally tried a no look wrist shot from the half wall on the power play with his body being giving no tell whatsoever. and it fooled the goaltender, but he made a strong save on it. It feels like he's operating in terms of the way that he's seeing the ice right now at a totally different level than anyone else in this leaker. No, he certainly is. There's like a command, which I think you're describing that, kind of the joy of thorn element. I just think the presence when he's out there, you can tell the defenders are very aware of it and worried, and I think that's what's pushing them back, and then that's allowing Vegas

to attack in waves. Since he came back, up 114 at 515 at his minute, 60% goals. share, expected goal share, sorry. He's got seven goals, Marcia's always nine, Barbasheva's four, and they just feasted against the Canucks. What's Marcia So going to make on his next deal, man? This is a contract year for the ages. Yes. Yeah, especially with like a big, another big postseason potentially. People forget, like, it's not even about the goal scoring totals or the shot or anything like that. It's, I swear that guy doesn't lose a puck battle. He's got a little bit of that Andrish Palat, you know, like he's so strong along the wall. His core

strength is unbelievable, man. Just his level of control. He's just always coming out with the buck size aside. Well, and now they've got this Carlson-Mantha Dorof-Five line that they've put together. They're good. And I'm impressed by Dorof-Five, man. Like, when he's out there, they're dominating. Now, it certainly helps playing with William Carlson, but he's scoring a bunch of five-on-five. He's got like some... He's got some pop on a shot. Like, he's taking the puck to the net. I've been very impressed by him. And once again, you look, and I said kind of throw out the season-long numbers, because there's been so, like, everyone's in and out of the lineup, such different combinations of players.

But once again, they're first in the league in terms of fewest inner slot shots allowed defensively, which is what they did last year. The last 10 games, their 5-15 metrics have all sort of come back up to, like, dominant status. And this is going to be a very interesting upcoming next week for them, because they have games against the Canucks again, Oilers, Avalanche.

And now there's an outside shot, I guess, that they could catch Edmonton for second in the Pacific and get home ice. It seems unlikely because Edmonton, sells a game in hand. But like they've pretty, they've pretty like firmly secured themselves in that two, three battle, right? I don't know who Edmonton has.

Well, I think Vegas has as well, right? I don't think so. You think L.A. could still catch them? I think L.A. I think L.A. should probably be favored to catch them. Really? Well, think about the schedule that you just gave the Golden Knights. Here's L.A.

Vancouver at home on Saturday. Ducks on the road. Flames at home, Ducks at home, wild at home, Blackhawks at home. No travel. Their only road game remaining is in Orange County. And their only playoff team that they're still facing is the Kinex. That's true.

I was going to say... They picked up points against all three of their previous matches. That's what I was going to say, like, the last couple of times I've watched L.A. play against actual competition, I've come away very unimpressed. But that just might not matter for the rest of this regular season's purposes. Like, it might be someone to circle back to once we get into the playoffs. I just... There's a real world where, like, I think L.A. is almost going to need to work to not.

get at least eight more points, whereas I think, you know, getting eight more points is going to be work for Vegas. That's fair. So I think there's a real world where we're watching Vancouver, Vegas, and the third iteration of Edmonton, L.A. Oh, boy. That's like, that's what I'm expecting at this point. But I also might just be in denial because I don't want to travel to Nashville twice and

you want to watch Luke Evangelista and Tommy Novak in person seven times. You know I want to watch Luke. Yeah. I was beating myself up because we just talked about that game. And I don't think we're going to get back to the Preds. But man, like, I love those guys. Yeah, they're amazing. And so it was really fun to watch them.

One final note on the Golden Knights before we move on. I'm intrigued by what they're doing with their defense core right now because when Hannafin first came in, they were playing him with Petrangelo and kind of a loaded up top pair. Since then, though, they're playing Hanifin with Hague. They're playing Petrangelo with Martinez. And then they're playing Theodore with McNabb as they usually. do and I like the idea that they always have one of Hannafin Petrangelo or theater on the ice.

There's like you're starting to see some of that depth and the talent shine through. And so I want to watch more of this Vegas team because the way they've played these past seven or eight games has been very encouraging and have answered a lot of the questions that I had about them. Do you want to move on to the stars? Yeah, let's talk stars. I mean, they rock. And this is going to be my victory lap because I know you've been skeptical about them.

I have. Now, that was a distant, distant memory at this point. My skepticism, my skepticism proceeded. I capitulated very, very quickly once I saw Stankhove and Johnston together, maybe the second game they played. I was like, okay, this is a totally different ceiling for this team. They've won eight in a row by a 34 to 11 margin. I think that 11 is important because Jake Onger has bounced back

after really kind of hitting his nadir there. Yeah. And he's looked good against a car. Canucks and the Oilers recently. They had that 5-0-0-0-0-0-1 most recently against Edmonton where they just got out in transition and just really punish them. And I came away from that, like we'll talk more about the Oilers later. I came away from that, though, feeling like they're a uniquely bad matchup for Edmonton

because something that, like, a big part of Edmonton's turn around beyond just Connor McDavid getting healthy this year has, since the coaching change, like they really short up their rush defense, right? They've started to play in a much more controlled environment where, like, they lean on you. They pick their spots, but they'll just, like, pepper you with high danger chances and cycle the puck, right? A team like Dallas, though, sort of forces them to open it up because they're so willing to trade rush chances themselves. And I feel like by nature, Edmonton, because they have Connor McDavid and they still have a lot of talent themselves, they're like, ooh, this is fun. Let's start playing this way.

And then all of a sudden, the game just starts being played at a speed where they're, like, uncomfortable with it. and their hand comes off the steering wheel, and all of a sudden, it's absolute chaos, right? And we saw the last time Colorado played Edmonton, I thought that similarly happened to the Oilers, where Colorado really started steering them in that direction.

I'm going to be watching that against these teams when the Oilers play them, but the stars, just because of their depth and that rush ability, they were just punishing them. And I thought it was a very impressive performance, but it's also, what's cool about them is they can beat you in so many different ways, right?

Like, is there a particular, opponent or game environment or series where you would feel like, oh, man, I don't, I don't think the stars can really, they don't have the chops to play this type of game. Like, it feels like whether you want to slow it down or speed it up or play somewhere in between, like they're very comfortable in all of those situations. I do think they're, the thing that to me makes the most dangerous right now is you've got, you know, it's almost unfair, but beyond kind of the most dangerous single human being off the rush and Robayans. You've then got, you know, Deshaen and Marchman on your second line who can eat you alive off the rush, right? You've got

Johnston and Stancovin on that third line who can do the same. And then even Sam Steele on the fourth line, right? There's no relief from the way that they can test you with their speed. I mean, it's almost a question for me of not so much. Is there a style of game that they'd be uncomfortable with, because I agree with you. I don't think there is. It's more how many teams do you think can even handle? How many potential, you know, playoff opponents can even handle that much speed up and down their lineup,

right? To like, to think about, you know, like L.A. I might not think of as highly as I think of the stars, but at least they have the defensive mobility. They do, but L.A. doesn't all want to trade one-for-one rush chances with Dallas. LA will not trade wars. Chances one for one with Dallas. But, you know, at least they have the defense mobility like Edmonton.

I think that becomes a question mark very quickly. And maybe even for the Bouchard-Eckham pair, Vegas, I think that becomes a question mark. Vancouver, I think it becomes a question mark when it's not Heronic Hughes on the ice. You know, it's like Colorado. Colorado is an interesting one. Colorado, L.A. It feels like, aside from that, I just don't know who has enough speed to really contend with what the stars can do for you. do against you vertically.

Well, they have six games left. They're up three on Colorado right now in terms of points. I think they have one more head-to-head coming up here soon. I think most importantly, though, regardless of how that plays out, because of Winnipeg's swoon, they've guaranteed themselves where they're not going to play a Colorado in round one. So we're going to have to wait until round two to see that and get those answers questions, or questions answered for us.

And I think they've worked their way up into Stanley Cup, Stanley Cup favorite at this point based on the market. I think they're right there with like the Rangers, but I think based on that path kind of clearing up a little bit where I would have been very nervous if they had to play Colorado right out of the gate. They're right there. And the depth you mentioned, I mean,

I think at the time we did those Bear versus Bull around Christmas. Remember, I was like, can we please get Thomas Harley top pair of minutes? He is. Since then, him and Mira He's going to have played 500, 5.15 minutes together,

61% of the shots, 60% of the expected goals, up 36 to 20. and then now you've got the Stankov and Wya Johnson line Y. Johnson has 30 goals, a 20 year old. They're similarly in the 60s. They're just throwing so many different weapons at you. It's a very scary team to try to game plan against

because there isn't one sort of obvious thing you could do where, all right, this is how we kind of force them on their back foot because then they'll just throw something else at you. So good luck to whoever has to face them. So, I mean, Harley is legitimately their five-on-five minutes later across the last, like since March 1st. Deservidly so. Yeah, but it's, it took them a while to get there, right?

And the team's performance since warrants it, right? I mean, they are a beast. That is the best or the second best team in the West without question. Yep, I think that's right. Let's take our break here. And then we come back, we'll jump right back into a Thomas Drenz. You're listening to the Hockey-Docast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here in the HockeyPedioCast,

by Thomas Trans, we're running through the Western Conference elites and our status updates on them. Let's talk about our friendly neighborhood of Vancouver Canucks Tom, a team near and dear to your heart. I think this is where I'm going to start with them. Regression has hit them. It's just interesting what's happened since where clearly the offense has dried up, as we would have expected, the shooting percentages certainly come down. Yet a lot of their other metrics, in particular the their controlling play and a lot of this stuff has come up to at least a level where it wasn't purely a team that was just being driven by shooting percentage. Like, you know, in past we've seen teams where they come out hot.

Think of Detroit what happened to them this year, right? Where they're scoring a bunch of goals, they're winning games. As soon as that stops happening, there's no sort of foundation in place either defensively or from a possession perspective to keep them afloat in the meantime. That's not really what's happened here. So I think that's kind of masked a little bit of the regression, right? The connects? Yes.

Yeah, although they're shooting 8.25% at 5 on 5 since March 1st. And, you know, I noticed J. Fresh had an interesting sort of look at which teams have seen their kind of results in terms of exceeding expected goal differential change. And the Canucks have had the third biggest fall off from the first half to the second half. So I part of the story is regression. just that we haven't seen such a sharp correction that like what the teams avoided is that protracted stretch of like 96 you know that would return them to the mean right they're still at you know they're still leading the NHL and combined shooting percentage say percentage they're still going to be a historic finishing team and they're they're still winning games even though

regression has been a factor in their results sort of slowing down it's just that they've sort of since the all-star break anyway which which is becoming a large sample, right? That's like since the start of February, we're talking 28 games or something. 27, but yeah. 27. You know, they're what, 14th in the NHL in point percentage

over that span of time. Right. Only, this is a disturbing list. Only Columbus, Anaheim, Seattle, Chicago, and San Jose have scored fewer goals. Yeah, the 27th. Yeah, since the all-star break. So, you know, I do think,

think we're seeing a pretty pronounced offensive outage and I do think regression has been a huge part of that story. It's just not the whole part of that story and Vancouver's sort of defensive level, their two-way game, has become structurally sound enough for them to continue to play like a solid playoff team if not an elite team, even with the bounces kind of beginning to be less kind, although not unkind to them. Particularly when you watch them play against teams like the ducks and coyotes most recently, right, where it's like, they're, like, they're have that like certain baseline where yeah they control the game yeah and it's like all right now this other team just can't do that and so they'll they'll be able to squeeze out this one goal win but they're

not scoring any they're not scoring enough to like put those games away yes and then when those when those teams get their bounce and level it up which has happened in both of those games the connect completely take over because they're a different caliber of team well in the last 20 games in particular 26 in 5-on-5 goals specifically and in watching these games recently. On the one hand, it's concerning. On the other hand, it's giving me an even greater appreciation for Quinn Hughes, if that makes sense, right? Because at the start of the year, he was obviously just racking up a ridiculous amount of points, right? He was scoring goals, but he was also just getting so many assists because the team was just scoring everything. Since then, during this kind of

dry spell, his offensive numbers in terms of the goals and assists have kind of come down to, like, a more reasonable level. But if anything, I think, his play has gotten more impressive to me because you watch the shifts when he's out there and he's extending possessions he's probing he's creating space and opportunities for his teammates and then when he's not out there where they just like have no real hope of sustaining offense beyond a quick goal here or there they're two entirely different teams and it all hinges on his ability to uniquely shake defenders make people like make people miss and get into those spaces and so it's really cool and it's interesting that

like the conversation right because roman yosi's been so hot and the predators have been winning so much and he's been racking up the points. Kail McCar's play has sort of returned to the form we would have expected after a period of relatively weak play by his standards yet Hughes despite that conversation nationally I think has gotten

even stronger as the years gone along you just wouldn't know it if you're looking at the points because of all the sort of shooting percentage stuff we just referenced yeah because of the fact that the conucks as a team aren't scoring all that much. I mean, let me ask you a question. Does, does Quinn Hughes's impact on the Canucks almost remind you of Nathan McKinnon's last season on last year's abs team? Where it feels like when he's not on the ice. Yeah, I'm not expecting them to score a goal. Yeah. Even though they have

scored some goals when he's been out when he hasn't been out there, but like it feels like it's like, wow, this is foul money. Whereas when he's out there, I'm like, all right, they're in a good position here. So yeah, in that sense, yes, I guess the question, though, we saw, obviously saw the limitations of bumping into that against a team that had more depth for Colorado last year. Yeah. How much can we reasonably expect Hughes to be able to shoulder in a postseason setting, just purely in terms of like volume of usage, right?

Yeah. Because I think he's pretty good at like not taking unnecessary punishment despite his size. Like he can, you know, he obviously makes people miss and doesn't take hits where he doesn't need to. But I think we're going to get into that point where it's like whether they want to or not at some point the Canucks coaching staff is just going to have to play them 30 minutes because they have no other recourse. Yeah, I mean, I think Quinn Hughes is going to have some very silly box scores come play off time in terms of the amount of minutes he's logging in games. I think we're

going to see 35 plus without OT. Like, I think that's going to happen at some point, depending on the game state. I'm sure they don't want to, but if anything, they positioned themselves well this season because there was a large stretch where they didn't have to. It would require a specific set of circumstances, like not a lot of penalties, uh, Canucks penalties, right? Because shorthanded ice time, he's going to log somewhat less. They'd have to be chasing so that he does, you know, one of those silly, like, because Quinn Hughes, if you haven't been watching, like, when the connects are chasing games, there's, there's games where he'll have, like, and Quinn Hughes didn't leave the ice for the last three minutes and 50 seconds of the third period,

right? Like, he'll, he'll have moments like that. You know, if the Canucks are down one and don't take a penalty in the third period of a, of a playoff game, like, you might play twice. for 13 of those minutes. Yeah, that does concern me a little bit about defensemen because I do think you sort of bump into a point of diminishing returns with these guys where it's less obvious for a defenseman like that, but I want like...

You want your best player, sharp. I want him sharp, but also like I want him pushing at all times, particularly offensively because this team needs it so badly. He can't really afford to have these shifts where he's out there and he's just not really involved. Like he needs to directly be in the center of everything, and that's going to require just an immense amount of energy. Yeah, which he tends to have.

I mean, he looks like he can skate all day. We've never seen them try it. But we might, but we might. When you're watching this team right now, and I can't tell if, I can't tell how much of it is the team being in, hey, let's focus on our defensive game. They're starting to change their lines and change their lineup

on like an almost every game basis. And granted, they haven't played that well, so you can understand why it might be the coach trying to get them going. But it feels to me more like they've settled in to prepare for the exam. You know what I mean? It doesn't feel to me like, I don't know, Talk. Its commentary tends to be like, we need to find that gear. We need to, you know, it's hard to pull.

But the way his actions are going where he's like trying things. And like he tried 11-7 the other night and scratched Pew Souter and kicked Brock Besser off the ice at a practice and then told the media afterwards, you know, he hadn't missed a practice in a while. Like, I mean, that to me is all preparation stuff. That's, you're looking at the long view and prioritizing that. That's it. When I watch this team play, it just feels like it's a bouquet of point shots. Every single game out. Like, without.

Which wasn't the case of the start of the year. See, I kind of think it was still. Like, this is a team where 40 plus percent of their shot attempts this season have been taken by defensemen. Right. I think they've worked a lot. from the points. But a lot of those Quinn Hughes ones are like him getting to the middle of the ice and going downhill.

Or on the right side of the guys. No question. No question. But I think this team has still been very interested in using the low to high game. Right. To generate traffic in front of the net and they're comfortable shooting from distance. But it's been on overdrive the last few weeks, you know, almost to the point of parity. Like I'm watching them chase some of these games where they don't score first.

like watching them chase Vegas and it's like for 25 minutes they finally match Vegas's pace and it's just like point shot point shot point shot point shot and that feels to me like a spray and prey approach well certainly and this has been the story of them this season that I think has been like has not been talked about enough because everyone has been so focused on the PDO but the luckiest part about it has been the specific goal sequencing because they just keep scoring early yes and part of that I'm sure is Rick Tock and having them prepared but part of that is just luck like even just because you're the better team, it'll probably play out over the course of 60 minutes, but it doesn't necessarily mean you're going to score the first goal within five minutes of the

game, if you know what I mean. And for then, they've been doing it, they've been doing it so often. And then that allows them to essentially just double down and play exactly the way they want to play. When they give up the first goal against Vegas in the first minute, all of a sudden, they're opening it up and chasing, and they just can't afford to play that way against Vegas. No. Like, that game looks entirely different if they're the team that scores in the first minute. Right. You're threading, like, a very fine needle there.

to try to keep doing that in the playoffs, especially as the level of competition increases and as teams are prepared from puck drop much more often than they are in the regular season. So that's what I'll be watching. But yeah, I think it's like a very, the margins are shrinking big time. And that's pretty scary because they've afforded themselves

a lot of margin this season because they started out so hot. And they can prepare now because they've been essentially locked in this position for so long, although Edmonton gave them like a bit of a scare, but not really. Like they've been, they've been the top seed for... I mean,

Edmonton can still make it interesting, but it's going to require a lot, and I think their schedule is too difficult and too condensed. Yeah. Any other notes on the Canucks? It's really, for me, I'm watching this team,

and there's all these sort of like fake areas of concern, like Pedersen can't score against good teams or, you know, the power play's falling apart. Like, power play has not been good, and that's a big part of the story of why they haven't been scoring enough goals.

but I just think it's, I think the story fundamentally is that five-on-five offense, this team looked totally different for the first two, three months of the year, but I don't really think it did. I don't think anything has changed beyond fewer sitters for like Sam Lafferty, fewer, you know, pucks that deflect off a stanchion right to Pew Souter at the side of the net. I think this team's really good defensively, but if they can't score five-on-five, there's going to be a lot of these.

games where the margins are that narrow where you're one mistake away from losing it. I just think that's a tough way to win. That said, you know, they're going to get Demko back and they're going to be very, very hard to break down in the playoffs and that's going to give them a shot. Yeah. The problem is, is I really do think you're going to go into these series if it is L.A. or if it is Nashville and I just think they're going to be pure coin flips. Like Vancouver will be favored by the gambling markets, but in reality, those to me feel like coin flip series.

And they both present very different challenges, but like ones that I could see frustrating the Canucks. And we have seen, particularly in L.A's case, frustrate them. Although in L.A's case, all three of those games that they played, L.A. scored first and early. That's true. Yeah. So, you know, in some ways, I feel like L.A. L.A.s felt like they have the Canucks number, but it's because any game that the Canucks in LA play is going to come down to who scores first. That's true, which is a scary thing.

A scary position of B&A. has like the one seed. That's what I'm saying, right. For L.A.'s case, it's like, all right, I'll take that because we can win this series, especially after losing Edmonton in the past two years. 100%. But no, and that's more than anything what I'm saying. I think the Canucks are going to go into this first round series and it's going to be close against whoever they play.

And that's, you know, partly a reflection of the fact that I think more highly of L.A. than market and I think more highly of Nashville than market, but I also think it's a function of how this team plays and how they have to play to succeed. I want to talk about the Jets, but also I just can't take them seriously in this conversation until they show us that they have a legitimate understanding of who their best players are and start using them accordingly. And I keep waiting for it. We've seen flashes of it, but we're running out of time here.

And watching their most recent game against Calgary gave you everything you needed to know. Because they started the game playing Nick Klai Eelers with Gabe Valardi and Mark Sheifley, which is by far their best combination of players. And they played well. They controlled possession.

They got a bunch of shots and chances, but they didn't score. And then Rick Bodez gets frustrated, puts Kyle Connor back on that line. They immediately give up a goal against. Then he puts Nick La Eelers back on the top line. They immediately score a goal themselves. And just seeing all the variations of that

within the same game was everything you need to know about his Jets team. and I guess if you told me, similar to the conversation we just had about Dallas, right? Where early in the season, we were like, this team has upside, but I need them to actually realize it

by utilizing their players properly. They do so with Thomas Harley and they take off. I'm not sure if it, Winnipeg's going to do it at this point. And so I just don't know if we should be even including them in this conversation, despite the fact that I do think they have the pieces to make a run and give teams problems

when they're at their absolute best. Yeah. And Hellebuck having sort of a pedestrian or worse march, I think, has taken some of the shine off the rows. But, you know, that's another team where it's like game one of the playoffs, Hellebuck could go on a two and a half month heater or he could not be the reason they win. If he's not the reason they win, I don't think they're going that far. Right. Does it matter if they use the right players if Hella Bucks not their best one? It does because they're just like they're not going to win a Stanley Cup playing Kyle Conner on the top line.

like it's just like we've seen enough data right now and in particular because of the foot speed with valardi there like they're just getting pummeled defensively yeah and then as soon as they put iler in that spot he's just able to create enough and like transport the puck where it puts them in advantageous positions and i just don't i i i tom it drives me crazy because we've seen a little bit of perfetti with connor now and perfetti's so good at creating space already early in his career for teammates he's great and then cow connor benefits from that because he's a very serious he's a very strong enough enough he's a very skilled player when he has space. But playing him with Shifley and Valardi accomplishes none of that.

And so I just, I don't understand how someone can watch this team and keep coming to these conclusions unless they're just playing possum and they're actually going to do the right thing in the playoffs. That's probably very wishful thinking. I think there's just a couple of small details that Eilers does that drives coach's nuts. I think he just does a few unpredictable things away from the puck in the defensive zone. I think he stays on a little bit too long and then has breakdowns defensively that aren't real defensive breakdowns but are just fatigue. I just think there's small things that cause coaches to be like, well, in my tough minutes, I don't know about it.

And I mean, I just think the Jets for sure are at the point where you have to live with those mistakes. Yeah. Because it's your best chance of way. Yeah. Yeah. And we've seen enough like the numbers with him on that line versus Connor are just night and day. So in terms of the possum idea, right? it's like, does it make sense to take one last chance to be like, please play like this?

Because you know you're going to have to live within the playoffs now. Yeah. I mean, we'll see. They went to it against Calgary. Yeah. And Nick Layers created three goals in 12 minutes on the ice. They kind of, their behavior increasingly indicates that they know it. I don't understand how you could not know it.

I genuinely, because like they're pretty smart organization. Like they've made good moves. They've brought in talent. especially a lot of the deadline stuff, right? It's like Monaghan's fit nicely. Monaghan's been perfect. Valuing to Foley, getting Nino Nita rider last deadline. Like the Valardi trade, like they clearly understand what a good hockey player is.

And then they have all these guys and they just refuse to like use them in the most optimal combinations. Yeah. Well, yeah, no, it's, um, it's something. I wish you were covering this to you, man. Not like, like Murat does a great job. Yeah. But like, I just, I need to see the interplay with you and Rick every day. And just asking him constantly why he's doing what he's doing.

The Eler stuff especially. Yes. It is baffling, but I think I do understand it a little bit. Yeah. I at least don't think it's a mystery. I just think. It's just incorrect. I think it's incorrect, but I also, for me, it's not, like, wholly incorrect

until you get to game one of the playoffs now. You know, which before we go, can I just bring this up? Yeah. What do you, what are your feelings? on the last 18% of the season. After you hit game 70, I feel like we learn nothing. Yeah, I think the stretch after the deadline is interesting when you see like new players and new fits, right?

So like I could do with like, but then you could just bump the deadline up sooner. Like you do the deadline at like game 50 and then give us 20 games a runaway and then end the season after 70. I'd be open to that. This is just not going to happen, right? Like you're just giving away free money,

which the owners are never going to do. I'd be open to an earlier deadline. Yeah, I mean, the problem is is the product right now is like this is not the NHL I tune into these games out of a sense of obligation we're all just waiting for what's on the other side I just and I don't feel like we're learning anything in fact I look at the NHL scoreboard every night and the results make no sense now NHL results usually don't make sense but especially over the course the past two weeks you can tell you're watching a ton of games at 75% it almost feels like preseason two by the time you get to this point And then you've got, you know, these young teams that start, like, playing well because they're playing loose, like all the goals that the Arizona Coyote started scoring and stuff. And it's like, that team's not good. No, I know. You know, like, I really struggle with grappling with what this means.

And yet I do think there are some exceptions, right? Like, there are the abs made these deals at the deadline that I think leveled them up. Like, and I think there's meaning there. There's teams that change their coach and then continue to be on this upward. And I think there's meaning there. but I really feel like the meaning in the last 20% of the year is the exception rather than the rule. And I really struggle to evaluate. Like I'm talking about the Canucks here.

They've kind of hit a wall. It's deeply uninspiring hockey. It's narrow leads. It's narrow escapes against the Arizona coyotes and the Anaheim ducks or they're getting beaten by playoff teams. And, you know, people in this market are panicking. And I mean, as much as I'd love to like back pat and be like, regression, it came. You know, it's just like, I don't think any of this matters. I don't think what the Canucks look like in game one necessarily is a better reflection of how they've looked the last five games than the way they played in October was.

Well, especially for the Canucks because there's such a max effort team. Right. That this is a very tricky part of the schedule because they're not really fighting for a playoff spot or even seating. So that level of motivation, like, I get it. It's the NHL. Everyone is constantly always trying to, like, put good tape out there. Like, I'm sure Dakota Joshua coming back from injury. he's got a big contract ahead of on this off season.

Like he's going to want to, like there's motivation certainly, but it's not the same. And there are a few teams in the East that I think are trying really hard, and it's scary that this is their 110% because you're watching like this Eastern Conference wildcard race, and it's like, this is your very best. It's going to be the Islanders and the Penguins, right? I'm not sure.

I'm done trying to figure it out. I do think it is a competitive advantage because the avalanche for years now, I've used this time. Like last year, they just didn't really have the chess pieces, so there was nothing really to do. But the year they won the cup and this year you're seeing them like tinker with different combinations.

The stars like integrating Logan Stancove and now they're, I think Maverick Bork's making his debut this weekend. Like this is a competitive advantage I think for smart teams to like experiment with stuff and you're going to learn some things just don't work and you're not going to go back to it. But like the Leafs are playing that like line with with Nyes and Robertson and Holmberg. Like yeah, like this is you should be rather than trying to field your best line up in game 73 when it doesn't matter. Right.

You should be trying to figure out. So one, this is what the connects have been doing. And this is why I haven't been concerned or anything about sort of their recent run of form. I just think we're in a point in the season where, um, like, very much like one of those sitcoms where at the end of it, they have a cause, you know, that they want to like tell you they're serious about. Yeah.

It's like, don't learn anything from a sitcom. Don't learn anything from the last 20% of the NHL season. I love that. Tom. Well, we want people to tune in. I know, I don't say that. Don't give away how the sausage is made. Well, we still, I mean...

We're going to learn a lot of stuff and we're going to talk about it here in the P.D.O. The purpose of this is to nerd out about hockey with fellow enthusiasts. Yes. So let's still do that. I'm just saying, don't, don't be very hesitant to take anything away from the last 20s. Certainly, like, with confidence. Yeah, I would just don't take anything away. Plug some stuff. What do you want people to check out?

Oh, check out our coverage at the athletic. We're about to ramp up. for playoff coverage. I've also got some really cool stories coming from my trip to the interior this weekend. It's going to be a blast. And then, of course, Canucks Talk hits you every day Monday to Friday at Sportsnet 650. Heirs from noon to 2 p.m. But you can also download the podcast wherever you get your podcast. And as we gear up for the playoffs, please check out the whiteboard, a daily 25 minute, everything you need to know about the state of the Canucks from the gambling odds to the lineup news to the latest rumors and the big headlines. the whiteboard. A separate episode, every Canucks talk. Check that out wherever you get your podcast. Well, Tom, it was a pleasure having you on. We'll have you on again soon. Thank you to the listeners for listening to us.

If you enjoyed today's show, you're going to enjoy the PDCADS Discord. So hop in there. And that's all for an abbreviated week of shows here. We'll be back Monday with a full new slate of episodes and regularly scheduled programming. So I hope this little microdose here is enough to hold you over. Until then, have a great weekend. And thank you for listening to the Hockey, Pediocast streaming on this Sportsnet Radio Network.