The Hockey PDOcast - The Western Conference power hour

Episode Date: December 13, 2022

Shayna Goldman of the Too Many Men pod joins Dimitri for a Western Conference power hour, diving into the biggest news items from across the NHL's Pacific and Central Divisions. This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Lessing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipo. Welcome to the HockeyPedocast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Shana Goldman. Shana, what's going on? Hey, thanks for having me. So here's a plan for today.

We're going to do the Western Conference power hour. We did the East last week with Ryan Lambert. It was fun. And so we got to do the West now. So just as a reminder, we're going to go through all 16 West teams the next hour. We're going to do three minutes per team, or at least. least try to stay within three minutes per team and we're going to go down the list of an Alvin Middle Order.

You and I have split them down the middle evenly. And so we're going to take turns alternating, presenting a stat that tells us either whatever, whatever you need to know about the team, the season they're having, it can be an interesting individual player stat. It can just be any which way we're going to take it. So I'm going to start the clock here, start the three minutes on the Anaheim Ducks and I'm starting us off. And I'm going to be honest with you.

I'm going to cheat right out of the gate because I couldn't narrow it down to one stat for this team because they have been, it's been such a tire fire of a season that I need to just present the full gamut of stats that I have here. So they're on pace for 48 points, which would make them the worst team in the 21st century tied with the Colorado Avalanche of 2016, 17, who also finished with 48 points. they have one regulation win in their 29 games played so far every team has at least five including the Chicago Blackhawks they have a minus 53 goal differential which is stunning because Columbus is second worst at minus 30 they're 30 second in goals scored and they're also 32nd goals against so they're literally the worst

offensive and defensive team somehow usually if you're like so bad at one it's because you're at least kind of like sacrificing for the other potentially. Nope, this team is just horrible at both. And I think the stat that really blew me away the most was I was looking at John Klingberg stuff, right? Because he came to this team this offseason. He clearly didn't get what he was hoping for in the open market this past summer.

And so he's like, all right, I'm going to try to rebuild my value a little bit here, go on this team, play a lot of minutes, hopefully score points because I'm going to be in a position to do so playing with young talented players. And then either they'll trade me at the deadline or. I'll just ride it out and then get a bigger offer next summer when money opens up for other teams. And boy, has that backfired. He is getting outscored 24 to 11 in his 5-on-5 minutes so far. He has a 36.7 expected goals share in those minutes.

So he's not even really getting unlucky. It's just been genuinely that bad. And that kind of sums up everything for me here with this Ducks team. Do you have any thoughts on whatever the heck is going on in Anaheim this season? Yeah, at least they've commit to the, the process a little bit and they're like, we know we're going to be bad and we're writing it out, but you have to wonder how many players are going to sit through that like John Gibson. Like it weighs on players, especially goaltenders when you consider like just how terrible they are

defensively. And like we know that there are some highlights to the team like Trevor Zegris and Troy Tarry. But like the difference last year was they were exciting to watch still. You know, even though they were bad, sure, they moved a lot of pieces at the deadline and we're going to see like the repercussions of it this year. But it's just so interesting like that excitement it feels like really has gone away because there's so much bad just weighing them down. So it's going to be interesting to see how much worse they get before they get better. Yeah. I mean, I think the logic with Dallas Aiken's was, all right, well, he's probably not going to

be here long term, but we'll ride out this season. We're going to get a topic anyways. What's the point? Let's see if you can develop some of these young players. And it's getting so untenable, in my opinion, in terms of just how bad they're being and like how embarrassing it is on a nightly basis that they might actually have to expedite that process and figure it out on the fly here. but we'll see.

I mean, they could do a lot worse than getting Connor Bredard for their efforts this season for sure. So that's all I got on the ducks. Okay, three minutes exactly. Perfect. We're on track.

You're up with the coyotes here. Okay, so the Arizona coyotes haven't been as disastrous, I think, as everyone projected. And a big reason for that is Krell Vermalca. He has saved 13.4 goals above expected, according to evolving hockey's model.

That's fourth in the league behind Sorokin, Helen Buck, he can save so many goals is that his team allows so many shots in front of him. So his workload is much tougher than everybody else. They're not putting up much offensively either to give him goal support, but he's still playing really well in net. And that contributed to them having a much better November than expected. So by my count, he has 11 quality starts already, which is super impressive.

You're going to see by year end, there were some goalies who only had 11 quality starts for the entire year, only had 15. He has 11. and we're not even midway through December. He has saved four more goals than expected on two separate occasions in a single game. I think it was against Detroit and Carolina, if I remember correctly. I'm sorry, no, Carolina and Florida. And he has five stolen wins so far.

So those are just games where he's saving more goals than expected than the team's final goal differential. So that's really impressive for him. If the team could have won a couple more games in overtime, he probably have more stolen wins at this point because he has the numbers that are better than their goal differential, but you can only do so much back in net. But I think that's an encouraging start. I'm sure it won't keep up because what goaltender can keep up this pace behind a team so

bad and a team that like the ducks projected to get worse if they move players at the deadline. But it's nice to see because he was a bright spot for them at points last year and he came in hot this year. Yes. I had a note here. So he's played 14 games since the start of November. He is a 945.

5% percentage in those games, 924 overall. one seven of the 13 starts he's made it's corral the thrill of amelca what a what a performance so far i mean the thing is is i remember a couple years ago right there was that famous or infamous season where the tank for mac david where the sabers were like getting good goaltending from like michael noyberth and stuff and they were like all right no like this is unacceptable we got to get this guy out here he's ruining all our efforts and that's not going to happen here clearly because they've already extended caro belamaalama i believe this season and so like he's part of their not maybe necessarily long-term plans, or medium-term plans for the next couple years.

And so I think this is a nice story. There's still clearly going to lose a lot of games in the process, even if he's playing this well. But I think it's pretty cool. And it's actually like a really fun story. So I've been following this on a nightly basis. And I think if I was playing in a fantasy league where he was available, especially if it's a league where I know some people play with like you get, you get points for like actual

raw total of saves made as well. For your goalies, like that's a no-brainer. He's actually kind of a stud in those types of leagues. Yeah, yeah, as long as you're not counting wins, which honestly, it's one category out of, you know, 10 categories for the week if you go by that, you know, so. And like I just said, he's won, he's won seven of his 13 games in the past like six weeks or whatever. So it's, yeah, Carrel the thrills been balling out. Okay. The Calgary Flames.

So we just talked about a goal that's playing really well. I think for them, we can split this up in two different ways. I think most importantly, they need to get Jacob Marks from right. Up until last week, he had a save percentage below 890, a goal save above expected in the negatives. And that's after last year where he finished as a Vezna finalist, he had a 921 save percentage, a plus 15.6 goal save above expected. And it got really bleak there for a stretch a couple weeks ago, right? He, after a game against the Canadians, he said that he just sucks at hockey right now.

They wound up riding Daniel Vlodar for five out of six games during a stretch there to, I think, give Mark Strom a bit of a chance to reset. and get himself together. And he looked good against Columbus over the weekend. And then last night against Montreal, he gave up just the one goal on nearly six expected goals worth of offense that the Canadians generated in the game. And he helped them at least steal one point from that one after losing,

and then they wound up losing in the shootout. But the other point I was going to make here was, despite how well he played in those games, they wound up losing both because they scored just one goal in each of them. And their team offense is down to 23rd in goals per hour of the season after being sixth last year. And if you just look at the shot chart in terms of where they're getting most of their offense from this season on Michael's website,

they've clearly kind of moved away from the net. They're really struggling to actually get to those dangerous areas in front of the net in the offensive zone with frequency. And I wonder how much of that is purely attributed to the Matthew Kachuk effect, where he's one of the best players at creating offense there. And he was for them last year. He's not there anymore. He's doing the exact same thing in Florida now.

And they're clearly missing that. And I think I still believe that Markstrom's going to get right here and turn his season around and play well because he's such a good goalie and it's such a good defensive environment under Daryl Sutter. But I think the offense might be an even bigger concern because they've got the shot volume. They've got the shot share. There's still a good five on five team in terms of puck possession. But they just seem a bit less dangerous than they were last year. And on a nightly basis, it seems like even when they are scoring goals, it's kind of like a struggle and it's smoking mirrors. And it's not a very sustainable process for them, I don't think.

Yeah, I think goaltending is definitely a problem. And I think I don't want to sound like a broken record here because I feel like I've said this so many times already this season. But we do need to study goaltending more. We need to learn more about the position. We need to understand the impact of workloads on a goalie in the long term because we haven't had goalies start, you know, so many games. And then last year we see Markstrom, Soros, and those goaltenders start more than they ever have and look at the results to start the year. So is there something that should be changed about their workloads in the off season to better prep them for this? is there something they can do in the regular season if you're planning to go on a deep playoff run?

We did see his game start to come apart last year at the end of the postseason. Is this, you know, a continuation of that? I do think he's going to find his footing, especially because like the flames are in a team. I think it's a little different when you look at like Sorrows versus Markstrom because Soros had a tougher workload with the team in front of him and the flames have done a good job protecting him, but he needs goal support at the end of the day. And it's going to be interesting because like this is team we all looked at and we're like, wow, they have a more balanced lineup.

They're going to have more scoring threats besides just on their first line, which was especially come the postseason a huge problem for them. But, you know, if you can't score goals in the regular season, you're going to have a problem. They have to figure out a way to bring some sort of pop to their, to their offense. And I do wonder if they have the chips on defense to make a change up front. Like, is this a team that's going to be a little bit more aggressive to do so?

Yeah. And, you know, I should mention Jonathan Huberto quickly here before we move on. He has only the five or the seven, five, one five points so far this season. I think it's going to, it's going to come. like he's already started to produce a little bit more. He still seems a bit off. I was watching that game against the Canadians last night. And, you know, he goes in on a two-on-one with,

with Michael Backland because the last Lenholm was out of the lineup. And he tries to pass it over to him. And like the communication was just off. It was kind of like out of reach. And they wound up not even getting a shot on that in that process. And that was something where last year that would have been probably an easy tap-in for Michael Backland because Hubert-O was just threading the needle on every one of those opportunities. And so I don't think he suddenly forgot how to pass the puck or play.

hockey, I think it's just going to, it's still just kind of an extended process figuring it out. But we were wondering how he would fit defensively under Daryl Sutter in the system. And this is a wild stat. Out of every skater that has played 205 on five minutes this season, and there's been 538 of them, no player has been on the ice for a fewer rate of high danger chances against the Jonathan Huberto. That is remarkable to me something I would not have expected. And so I wanted to throw that out as well.

All right. We went very long on the Calgary Flames there, cutting into. to the Chicago Blackhawks a lot of time, which is fine by me because I don't have much to say on them. Thankfully, they've been assigned to you. So I'm very curious to see how you spend this one here in the minute and a half or so that we have for them. I was trying to think what to do here. We could talk about the goaltending being bad. We could talk about the overwhelming offense. We could talk about the underwhelming defense. We could talk about the fact that they are tanking like they plan to do.

But the thing that's set out to me is Patrick King, because he's going to be the topic of conversation the rest of the year. So why not continue having it now? He is down to scoring 2.29 points per 60. That's about a point lower than last year. He's shooting the puck slightly less, but we know that's not his game. But the big difference is he doesn't have Alex to Brinket on his line. He doesn't have a shooter. So it's going to be interesting to see how much does this lower his trade value?

Because we know that not every team has the most, say, advanced methods of looking at players. They're going to look at scoring rates going down and points per game and things like that. They might not even go per 60. But it's going to be interesting to see what teams are good at spotting. is this the impact of aging? Is this the impact of playing on a terrible team? Is it the impact of not having a shooter? What kind of balance is it?

And how is that going to affect his trade value? Because we've seen these huge chips go on the market, say, a mark stone and not go up to the cost that we expect them to. And it feels like Patrick King's kind of like the perfect example of that. The Blackhawks haven't been great at getting value back for their key pieces that they should be trying to move. Is Patrick King the next one? Like, I wouldn't be surprised if Jonathan Taves went for more at the deadline than Patrick game because everyone goes, well, he's not scoring as much. He's not driving play as much.

And, you know, he's older now and things like that, even though we all know what he can do on a good team with some more support. Yeah. I'm very curious to see what that price is going to wind up being because I think objectively, there's so many red flags at the same time, he's such a gifted playmaker and passer, and he has the reputation of being one. And I can see a team talking themselves and him to, okay, we have skilled players. If we bring him in, he's going to be rejuvenated, he's going to be able to get them

the puck. He's going to be able to create, especially on the power play, even if you do believe that the 515 game has deteriorated. And it clearly has. He only has the 7, 515 points there in 400 minutes. Only Jack Johnson on the team has been worse at 515 than him in terms of pretty much every underlying metric. Bad company to be keeping. I know he doesn't have Alex to bring out there. But to my eye, Andreas Anthony Seu and Max Domi have looked fine themselves and they've been his most common linemates.

And you bring all three of those guys together and to kind of tie it all together, you mentioned this team. tanking, they're probably going to not get rid of all three of those players who have been their top line this season halfway through the year. And so, man, this, as bad as it's been so far, and all those stats that I said about the ducks where they're like the worst in everything, the one category they're not the worst in is 515 goal share that belongs to the Blackhawks. And it's going to get even worse as the season goes along. So it's a, it's a very, very dreadful team. And at least, you know, it's clearly by design, like they're going to do everything they possibly can to improve their draft lottery odds.

So there is that. Okay, the Colorado Avalanche. So in 26 games so far, they've already used 33 different skaters, only seven skaters, Miko Ranton, Kail Makar, Logan O'Connor, Alex Newhook, J.T. Comfer, Andrew Cogliano, and Eric Johnson,

those seven have played all their games. Everyone else has missed at least multiple games on their team. So I think any analysis of what they're doing this season needs to be centered around that, right? I think we'd all still agree that there's some concerns, especially on the second line center position, Alex Newhook hasn't really stepped up and, you know, filled the void, the Nazim Kadri left. And I still think they're probably need to address that in the trade market. They have time to do so. So I'm not that worried about it.

And ultimately, it's kind of nitpicking because if healthy, when it matters, this is still the deepest and most skilled group in the NHL. That all being said, there are 30th and 5-on-5 scoring this year as a team. only the Ducks and Blackhawks two teams we've mentioned so far are scoring less frequently than them. They've dipped under 50% in shot share, high to hit your chance share, expected goal share, and goal share. It's pretty startling to see, even acknowledging all of the players that have been out of action

to see them in that type of ranking. So it's, you know, their power play has saved them. Their third in power play scoring. Their goaltending has been really good. Alexander George, Yv and Powell Brantz, who's are, I think, have the fourth best team save percentage so far and they're making like 5.4 million combined against the cap. So that's been a silver lining and the power play and they are going to get healthy.

They're already getting guys back. Ballard & Chuskin just came back. I think Evan Rodriguez will be back shortly. So it's going to get better. We're going to have to reevaluate in a couple weeks or a couple of months with this team clearly. But right now it's been pretty bad, especially at 5-15. Yeah. If any team, I'm not concerned about it's Colorado because like we know a lot of it's a product of

their injuries. We know that they're going to get Nathan McKinaback. We know they're going to get Gabriel and his cock back, because they haven't had it all this year. So those two players right there, those are the best internal, you know, deadline pieces you could get and they're going to get them back in the next month or two. So that's going to be huge for them.

I think that as long as they make the playoffs, they're going to be just fine. We know that they can dominate play. We know this core is so good. It's not a matter of, oh, they've aged too much. Anything changed too drastically. They do need to figure out their second line center position. I think when the team's healthier,

they're going to have a better chance of doing so. And having, you know, they lost Nachuch. for a while too there. And he's the player. I think that they thought this player can, you know, really drive our second line. If Lekinen's with McKinnon, you can have Nuchuskin and maybe Ransitin and Nchuskhan and then you can put any center there. So I do hope they get the chance to, you know, analyze that and see can Rodriguez get there, can comfort, can new, can anyone fit there that they don't need to go too high up for a second line center. And then they can really just bring in a good

third line skater to give them the scoring depth that I think that they need right there. So I'm curious to see how it goes. Yeah. Well, so we've done five. team so far. And I think the most optimistic tone has been for the Arizona Coyotes, which is not something that I would have expected heading into this process. But I guess partly it's framed by just expectations, right? And so when you get a story like Karelova, Melka, for example, it's like, it's literally found money. So I think that explains that. But hopefully the vibes will improve here because you are up with the Dallas stars. Yeah, the vibes are definitely going to improve here. So we know it's a big year for multi-goal comebacks. We've seen scoring is up, power play scoring is up,

Save percentages are down. But a big thing is that a lot of teams aren't doing a good job of protecting two goal leads. We're seeing teams go up by two and then blow the lead to lose a game, not just to blow the lead and, you know, continue on. It's fine. They scrape by. They're all right losing games. The Dallas Stars have led by at least two goals this season 15 times and they have yet to blow a lead to lose a game. The only team that's a little bit better than them is Boston, who's done it, you know, a casual 19 times.

and hasn't lost a single game. We saw the Devils last night. They lost for the first time after leading by two. They have been up by two, 17, at least two goals, 17 times. And now they've only lost one game and it's to the Rangers. But Ottawa did come close last week against Ottawa. They went, I'm sorry, Dallas went,

was close to going up by two against Ottawa and then going to overtime, but they held on for the win. So they get to maintain that record. So it's really interesting because it's a team that isn't, they have the offensive pop a little bit more this year because Jimmy Ben's playing better and you have a little bit more scoring depth, Mason Marchman and Tyler Stagin on that second line and the top line still thriving. So they're getting the goal support.

And Mira Heiskin has been incredible too. So it's a matter of defending something we know this team can do. You know, they've had the defensive structure. It doesn't just disappear. And that's why sometimes like the first year of a new coach can be the best because you meld two different ideas. And DeVore is trying to bring in something different to the boring defensive system of Rick Bonas. And then, you know, you have Jake Ottinger back in net, who's one of the best goalies in the league right now.

He's jumping out is that. So it makes sense that they're maintaining their leads better. So it's just, it's something to watch. I love that stat. And yeah, they're fourth and overall scoring. Only Boston, Buffalo, and you jerse are ahead of them. Here's one quick stat for you that blew me away when I was looking this up. When they have that line of hints, Roberts and and Pavelsky, which is one of the best

lines in the league, they're generating 5.4 goals per 60 at 5-1-5. to put that in perspective, the Anaheim ducks and Montreal Canadians score less frequently when they're on the power play and those guys do when they're playing at 5-1-5. What a stat, what a line. All right, I'm up with the Edmonton Oilers here. So there's a couple ways to,

there's a glass-half-full and glass-half-empty way to view this, right? Glass-half empty, there's some concerning 5-15 metrics. Ironically enough, when McDavid and Dry Seid, are on the ice because without them, we know that for years, the common concern has been do they have enough to basically just stay afloat when those guys aren't on the ice? And so far this year, they actually have. They played 650 minutes, F515 without either McDavid or Dreisidal on the ice.

They're only down one in those minutes. They're down 21 to 20. I think they'll take that every day of the week. They're basically playing to a draw without those guys out there. Now, when it's been just Dreisidal on the ice at 515 without McDavid, they're down 17 to 13. when it's just Connor McDavid without Dreisidel on the ice, they're down 13 to 10. And I think that's really surprising.

I'm not worried about the McDavid stat at all because the team's shooting like 6% or something in those minutes. So I think that's going to regress and they're going to score a lot more. I've been a bit concerned seeing Dreisidal and how much his defensive play has deteriorated. Now they're not getting any saves when he's out there as well. And so there's not that much to fall back on. He's still an absolute menace on the power play

when he has more space in those set plays in the offensive zone. But I don't know if he's, still not fully healthy from the playoff injury he had. He hasn't really looked entirely like himself on particular nights. So I don't know what's going on there, but it's alarming. It's something to keep track of. Now, on the power play, this is literally the best power play we've ever seen. They're scoring 12.5 goals per 60 when they're up a man this year.

The gap between them and second place, which is the Vancouver Canucks, is the same as the Canucks and the 13th place Seattle Cracken. That 12.5 goals per 60 is literally the best we've ever seen since 2007. it's ahead of the 1819 Tampa Bay Lightning. And even for a team that has as much of a standard as they do, because this Oilers team is in the top five of that stat since 2007, in multiple years in 1920 and 2021, this is like the pinnacle.

This is the best they've been. And so we know the issues with relying too much on just scoring on the power play and it's come back to haunt them in the past. But if they're going to keep scoring like this, especially throughout the regular season, they're going to be a problem to deal with every single night because no matter what the score line is, they can quickly come back and score multiple goals and all of a sudden turn the game entirely flip it on its head.

Yeah, and it's interesting too because earlier this season, they were a team that wasn't that great with their comebacks when they were trailing by two. And they really turned it around. You could see it around the time that they beat the Rangers after trailing three nothing. Like they had a couple wins in a row where it was like, okay, you can see that they're getting that comeback mentality a little bit better. But the dry saddle thing is interesting because we, you know, like we talked about Eric Carlson a couple weeks ago too and like the difference in his game and you could see that you know his off

season training was so different because he didn't have a leg injury to try to rehab from and then try to train from the season and you know dry saddle we know where it was dealing with that so that might have weighed down his game a bit and also we know the injuries with the forward group with evander k now zack hyman's been playing on the top line a little bit more that takes away someone from dry sidles line who has a good two-a impact so that forward depth is going to it's like constantly a problem for the oilers and even when they address it you know they don't have enough plan b's and these and ds, which you have to have at this point. You have to have either, you know, someone who's really good at picking out waiver claims

or, you know, someone who can find little market inefficiencies that you can add someone midseason or you need to have a good prospect pool that you can keep drawing from and, you know, not worry about your team if your top players aren't clicking or if someone gets hurt. And we know that they've just lost that over the years because of either bad drafting or, you know, poor development or just moving out so many assets. So it would really help if they had someone like, I don't know, Jesse Pillyarvey, who had a little bit more confidence to give them. them a little bit more pop. And, you know, there's issues within his own game, but it just doesn't

seem like this is a team that knows how to fix them to make him a true asset that he should be there. Yeah. And McDavid is on pace for 71 goals and 85 assists this season. So it's, it's ridiculous to watch him. That is comical. You see just mid shift all of a sudden, all the sudden, all the sudden, all of a sudden, all the sudden, all the sudden, all the sudden, all the sudden, all the just takes it to another level. And it's something we haven't seen in his game before. You know, we've seen him takeover plays. But the way it's now, I'm going to be the difference maker.

I'm not just going to set up the play. I'm going to just, you know, make everyone look like a bunch of pee-wee skaters on the ice. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Let's quickly do the Kings here before you go to break. Shana, Europe. Okay.

So the Kings this year have allowed 19.1 more goals above expected between all of their goaltenders, according to evolving hockey, which is a big problem for them. Last year, it was that they were scoring. so far below expectations that even strengthened on the power play, they just weren't finishing their chances despite, you know, some good defense and even the goaltending, it was strong from quick. And then it, you know, it switched hands to Cal Peterson and he picked up the pace a bit. And then they went back to Quick and it worked for them. You know, each goalie had their hot streak instead of both being good the whole year, but that

worked for them. And this year, it's the opposite. It's everybody being bad. It's quick allowing 10.3 more goals above expected. It's Cal Pedersen allowing 10.1 before he was sent down. And And, you know, Phoenix Copley comes up and he has, you know, one point three goals saved above expected. He's the best of the bunch, but he has the fewest games played right now. And, you know, it's just, it's not super sustainable. They obviously still have the same defensive structure. Some of it has taken a bit of a hit. And I think it's because they're picking up the offense a little bit.

And sometimes teams, it's a little bit of give and take. And we see that, you know, they're scoring above their, at five on five, they're basically matching expectations. And in all situations, their scoring is slightly outpacing expectations, but not by some unsustainable margin. So they're getting the goal support now, but they're not getting saved. So it's going to be really interesting to see how do they manage from here because if they want to compete, they need to be a little bit more well-rounded.

And last year we saw the flaw in how it bit them in round one. What are you going to do to fix your goal tending? And we know how goalies age. It can be super volatile. Oh, they can, you know, could be a steep decline or someone like quick how he showed last year. He can be hot half the year and not. So they need to figure out something if they really want to have a chance. Yeah.

If they could have to just like statistically climb that combined the two halves of last year, defensively and this year offensively and put it together. You'd be cooking with a pretty good recipe. But yeah, that's really well said. Okay, Shana, we're going to take a quick break here. And then when we come back, we're going to rattle through the final West teams on the docket. You are listening to the Hockey P.D. cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.

All right, we're back with more of the Hockey Ptodcast here with Shana Goldman. We're doing the Western Conference power hour. It's up for the Minnesota while now. So the 25th and 5-15 scoring is a team. They're 21st and all situations scoring. They were second and fifth in those categories respectfully last year. And I think personally, I underestimated the impact of losing Kevin Fiala. I mean, at 5-15 alone, he had the 23 goals, a 21 primary assist.

He was an absolute beast, especially kind of in the second half of the year when Matt Boldie came up and those two found chemistry together. And I think part of my logic was thinking, all right, well, based on the way this team is constructed, I actually do think they have some serviceable depth. You're going to see Matt Bowley take a step up. You're going to see Mark Gorosie coming into the lineup. you're going to be able to find different sources of offense. And maybe I just estimated how much Kevin Fiala meant his team, especially as a puck carrier, as a bit of a play driver, as a guy who could create his own shot,

and also set others up. And so they've struggled as a whole. Like there's been nights where it's just been such a grind for them to create offense. And that's not something we saw from them last year. I think that has been the biggest takeaway for me watching them this season. Because the goaltending, you know, that was the story at the start of the year. And it's actually been pretty fine. recently and they've gotten it together in that regard, but the offense still kind of remains a bit of a

bit of a mystery for them. Yeah, it really is underwhelming their offense at five on five, especially if like Caprisoff's not on the ice. And we, we saw it last year at the end how they had three capable lines. They had, you know, the Ericksonac line that could go up against top competition and crush them. And they were so good defensively and great it, you know, really getting to the net front area and grinding it out. You have Caprisov and Zuccarello, a great pairing too. And, you know, the next pairing was Boli Fiala. It's a little surprising to me. go after someone super super super cheap too just in case Marco Rossi wasn't ready just so they have the extra forward and i wonder if that's something that they're going to change in address and obviously

they have cap concerns but like they bet a little bit too much maybe on rossi or maybe they knew all along and they were like we'll just deal with it if it happens if it you know we don't see that the coaches feel you know he's ready because we know coaches are stubborn to trust younger players too so you know matt boldie is still playing super well so i just wonder if maybe they could find someone in that top nine. And maybe it's just a matter of getting a little bit healthier. But if they could find someone in that top nine, just a little bit more scoring pop.

Yeah. And I think what I'll help also is a bit of positive regression. Like I just cited how big of an issue it's been and how much they rely on Caprizo and Zucrello. When those two guys are out there, they've been dominant in terms of pretty much everything except for actual goals, right? They've got a 57.5% shot share, 60.5 high danger chance share. 57.9, expected goal share.

And they're getting outscored 20 to 14 in those minutes because pretty much at both ends of the ice, they're getting the worst pucklock possible. They're having a 7% shooting percentage. Their goalies are stopping 86.4% of the shots they're facing. And they're getting kind of dragged down by that. So I think once they get a bit of better puck luck as well, maybe that'll open kind of the game up for everyone else.

And there'll be a bit of a trickle-down effect. And they'll be getting into better game scripts and being playing from up ahead. And all of a sudden, that'll allow them to lean on opponents. So I'm still optimistic about this team because I think there's still enough talent there. But I'm kicking myself a little bit for not kind of, feeling like the Fiala departure was going to be a bigger issue because clearly that's provided a pretty big hole in their lineup. All right. The Nashville Predators. You're up, Shanna.

Okay. So the Nashville Predators, I looked at their forward core. So I went by Dom Lee Stichens model at the athletic in game score value added. And their entire forward group ranks 23rd in the league with just 9.8 wins, which is very underwhelming. And it's interesting because it's something that like everybody could see coming like sure they were expecting progression from tanner genot he was a good player to have last year and you know adding you know need a writer at his contract i think was like a very good value add for them but this is a team that for the last couple of years has not been good enough and then got really hot goaltending at the right time and decided let's just go for it and that's fine if they want to maximize their core of roman uc and philip forsburg and ucs absolutely i get it but it's it's really

hurting them that they not once took that step back to really assess and figure out where they could go from here where they actually would be headed in the playoffs because we can see how much it's you know it's it's hurt their progression last year they had a couple forwards who could carry the puck into the zone that was it you know grandlin could a little bit duches did a little bit forsberg did a lot and then roman yosi you know a defenseman with more carryings than anybody else really because their forward group which you expect to take on that role just wasn't doing it so it just feels like this team if they're going to have any chance of anything this year and you know there's still a chance of the playoffs for them and there's chance that sorrows after a slower start

it turns it around. They really need to figure out how to punch up this offense a little bit more with some puck movers and, you know, with some skill to go with the team that they've assembled. And obviously, injuries hurt them. They can't control that. But they just, at their healthiest as constructed, are not good enough to do more than, you know, get to the first or second round. Yeah.

Well, and also, you know, last year you talk about how the goaltending was kind of masking a lot of their flaws. Like pretty much every one of their top forwards had a, a career season and had really, really favorable shooting luck as well, right? Like everything was going in when their best players were on the ice. And that's come back down a little bit and they haven't really been able to compensate for that. And you're right.

Like I think the pace they play with is an issue. I think it's pretty unimaginative. I don't think it's necessarily the most creative or ambitious coaching staff. And ultimately there's only so much you can do with the personnel they have. But I think there is enough talent there to get more out of this group. And so it's something we keep coming back to with them. It's like I expect more from them even if I don't agree necessarily

with like the big picture view of how they've assembled this team in the present day. They should be doing better than they have so far and so we'll see what happens for them the rest of the way. But yeah, it's been a pretty inauspicious start to the year for them. All right. The San Jose Sharks.

So this is my big story. I don't want to do Eric Carlson even though he's clearly the biggest story for this just because I've talked about him so much on the podcast. So let's focus on Timo Meyer instead. Timo Meyer is on pace for 38 goals, 74 points. He leads the league in shots. He's second in shot attempts. He's ninth in high danger chances.

He's got the eighth best penalty differential. And he is up for a new deal this summer as a 26-year-old. And I think the elephant in the room is what are they going to do with him? Because we saw last summer, or last season, at the trade-out line, they were faced with a similar decision, a bit different because Tomas Hartle was an impending UFA and three years older. But they decided to retain him instead of trading him for a collection of futures that they presumably could have gotten from a contest. tender, they decided to give them an eight-year deal, keep them around for the long-term moving

forward. And so I wonder if that decision to do so is going to influence their decision here because they've already kind of gone in that direction and it would be weird to take one step forward and then two steps back. Or if the fact that Mike Greer is coming in and he wasn't responsible for that, that gives him a clean slate to basically make the right call here, which is probably for the long-term future of this team, cashing in on Tim O'Mire now, getting as many futures as they can. and keeping this rebuild going or even you could say starting this rebuild properly because

they still are in this position where they have a bunch of high-priced veterans making a lot of money for the next couple years and it's going to be tough for them to really kick that rebuild into high gear until they get get out from that. So I'm really curious to see, and we should factor in here as well, that Timel Meyer kind of has quite a bit of leverage here himself, right? He's still going to be an RFA this summer. But with that $10 million qualifying offer, he basically has a lot of leverage and that is intentionally designed by him and his agent. That's why they took less from the sharks three or four years ago when they signed this deal with the intention to do so this summer.

So I'm really curious to see how you put all out together and what they wind up doing with him. And then I'm curious for your take, if you have a favorite landing spot for him, if they do decide to trade on where you'd like to see him fit in. Yeah, I think that like my career got the short end of the stick in San Jose because like they had such a tough contract situation. They only made it worse with hurdle. And I understood to an extent why they did it.

But if you move a player like hurdle or even Meyer, like you, you kickstart a rebuild or a retool even because these are the biggest pieces that are going to bring the most back instead of saying we need to move out five players to get minimal returns back. If you move one big piece, obviously, ideally it's not Meyer, but you know, you're going to get, you know, you're going to get a lot back for him. But what's what's the long term impact on the team? And what's interesting to is like two years ago, I think it was his scoring was down a little bit. His shot rate was down. everything was down for him. And last year he bounced back in a big way. And it just showed that was the outlier season.

This is the player who he truly is. And the fact that he's building on last season is all the more impressive, you know, showing where he can go from here. I think a team like the Islanders should like kill for a player like this. I think that he would be so interesting there. I think that they need a high volume, high shooting forward and not just a net front. They have so many net front presences. They have the really good playmaker in Barzell that if they had Timelmeyer and Oliver,

Wallstrom on two different lines. That would be, I think, huge for them. But I don't think that there is any chance of that ever happening because of cap considerations. But, you know, a team like Minnesota, a team like the Islanders, those are the teams I look at and I go, if I'm a contender and, you know, who do you want? It's definitely someone like Timmyer, but it would even be fun to see them go more to like the up-and-coming team, like similar to like Alex DeBringko and Ottawa, like,

what could it be for years? I'd be interested to see if there's another team that kind of stands out in that way with Meyer. The New Jersey Devils. What a fit that would be. That would really be something. I just don't know how they manage everything because you have Jasper Bratz's incoming contract extension to worry about.

But I could see at this point a player like Holtz being on the board because I just don't see him meshing as well in New Jersey as they anticipated and they need to do something before his value drops off too much. I wonder if he would be a starting point plus a bunch of other assets, which they obviously have. Yeah, the devils are well suited. to put together quite an intriguing package. And I think from a fit on an on-ice perspective,

he would be fantastic with any, any of the top six combinations they have. And I love Team Omeyer. He's only 26 years old, such a complete, you know, power forward in terms of being able to attack off the rush, but also off of those in-zone kind of cycle, more grinded-out settings as well.

So he'd be perfect for a team like that. All right, Shana, you're up with the Seattle Cracken. Okay, so the Seattle Cracken, and I have to give a huge shout out to NHL to Seattle, John Barr. he put this together and I asked him if he had an update and he did today. The Seattle Cracking lead the league with 16 unique goals scores with at least three goals scored. The next best is Calgary with 15.

But it's just impressive because we look at Seattle and their problems last year were goaltending. They were really good defensively. They had really bad goaltending and they didn't have goal support. So they went out and did what they could to address that. They got all up for Bjork Strand and a great deal because the blue jackets had to move out cap. They brought in Andreikovsky as well as a free agent. They knew that they were going to have another year. of Maddie Baneers. They were going to have a healthy

Jane Schwartz, a healthy Tanev, and healthy Yanni Gord for the entire year too. So they're putting together a forward group that, no, there's no standout all-star players. We look at Berkovsky and go that he's not the guy. He's one of the guys. He fits really well as that. And that's completely fine. The one guy that stands out as a potential guy is going to be Maddie Baneers and we see how he's developing. But they're going, it's totally fine. We're going to have three really good scoring lines and that's

going to work for us. It worked for the blues last year. You know, they just had other flaws, especially in their own zone. that the crack and don't. So as long as the goal tenting can hold up, it's really interesting to see how they can just be greater than the sum of their parts because they have so much scoring depth right now. Absolutely. Yeah, I really like watching that team,

and I like the way they attack. And they've clearly, you know, it helps with it because the personnel, as you mentioned, has improved, but they've also improved the way they attack in the offensive zone from an efficiency perspective where they're getting their shots from. And so it's been a nice combination of the two, and we've seen them reap their rewards for it. All right, you mentioned the St. Louis Blues here.

They're up next. one of my most disappointing teams. And honestly, I was really rooting for this offense because I had sort of planted my flag on them changing the way we think about 5-1-5 attack in particular because they were basically last year just passing up shots that other teams typically take and were programmed to seeing teams take in pursuit of the highest, most optimal, dangerous chance they could find. And it worked wonders for them. They had so many tap-ins.

They had so many beautiful passing plays and give them. and goes and they were just playing this really kind of new wave style of attack offensively. And this year, it's come back crashing down on Earth, right? They were third and five, or sorry, they were third in all situation scoring last year, fifth at five-on-five. They led the league in shooting percentage in both of those game states. This year, they're down to 24th in total goals, 23rd and 5-15 scoring. And their shooting percentages plummeted into the 20s in terms of league rank.

It's down to 9.7 overall from 12.4 last year. And so I'm disappointed because I was hoping they, really were going to be the statistical anomaly and they were going to show that you can do this year over year and they've progressed back to where we probably should have expected them to. And I guess we shouldn't be disappointed because we probably should have seen it coming or I should have seen it coming.

But I was just, I was blinded by how much I loved watching them last year and unfortunately they have not been able to repeat it this season. Yeah, last year they were team that by all public models were very underrated and expected goals on both ends of the ice because it doesn't, you know, we don't have public tracking data. But when you went by private models that factor, in the passing data into like the shot danger. They were a team that really jumped up in both regards on both ends of the ice.

And this year, you know, it does hurt that they don't have David Perron. This was a team with, you know, 9, 20 goals scores last year had such a versatile forward group that could really mix and match their line combinations. And it does be like they're a bit stunted this year. I think what hurts them too is they could have made up a little bit bigger of a splash on the blue line. And I think if their defense was a little bit stronger, I think it would really solidify the forward group too to account, you know, if you're saying,

and Kyra's going to step up in David Pran's spot, you still need to address the roster elsewhere, whether it's a lower in the forward lineup or improving the defense that we know was a flaw, especially considering the goal tending is not as strong this year. So it is a little bit disappointing because it does feel like this team is behind the curve a little bit. There's problems with the culture. There's problems with the roster construction. Now we're seeing problems with the results. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe missing David Pran is a really good point by you. Maybe it's something I underappreciated as well. We're talking about, you know, how much the

wild of Miss Fiala. He was one of the players on this team that really just under any circumstance would fire. And so basically they would set up these opportunities and then he would be the trigger man at the end of it and they haven't been missing that element. Pavlovuchnevich has really been the only player who's on ice scoring hasn't regressed this season by a significant margin. And he's been out of the lineup in and out a bunch here as well. So that hasn't helped. So yeah, it's been, it's been a mess so far. And it really hasn't been what I'd hope for. Okay, the Vancouver Canucks. Okay, so the Canucks by Don Lushishan's model I checked and I could have gone through all of them, but I said to go with one because whatever, they only have a 17% chance of making the playoffs.

No one's going to tell you it's much higher than that. So when I saw that, that was a number that stands out to me because they have a big decision coming up. It's Bohorabat. What are they going to do and how are they going to approach this differently than last year? Because we saw how they approached it with J.T. Miller last year, will they move him? Won't they move him? Can they maximize the return? And again, we talk about the sharks.

If you move one piece, you can get a lot back and you can really get things going a little bit more instead of committing to that contract. And, you know, Miller's older than Myers. So it's a little bit different of a situation too. But they're coming up on the same decision with Bo Horvette. They don't have a ton of cap space. They don't have a lot of cap flexibility when it comes to the salary structure, the, you know, contract structure either because they have so many players signed to, you know, long term. And do you really want to have two players on contracts you know aren't going to age well, even if they help you in the interim? Like, you really, if the Canucks have to step back and look at this team and go,

where are we going this year? Do we think we're going to make the playoffs? And do we want to try to just go for it this year, maximize it and figure it out at the end of the year? Or can we be realistic? Step back, move a player and really get everything going. So next year, we're in our best position possible to succeed. And, you know, by Dom's model again, is market value right now, Bo Horvats, 8.8. He's been great for them. And, you know, the Canucks are tied at the bottom of the league in unique goal scores. They only have nine this year. That's tied with Ottawa, Chicago and Toronto. So if you're taking a Horvette from the you're losing a very important player that's really going to hurt, you know,

your bottom line the rest of the season. So can they commit to that but go for the big picture? Like that's going to be the question. I think we have to just keep looking at the rest of the year. Yeah, he's got 20 goals in 28 games, which is behind Justin McDavid Robertson and Tage Thompson for the league lead that would shatter his personal best of 31 goals and 70 games that he had last year. He turns 28 in the spring.

I was surprised to hear that he had turned down the eight-year contract offer that the Canucks had given him this summer. I know the dollar figure itself was a bit lower at 5.1. And it was basically the Ryan Nugent Hopkins deal that he signed with Oilers as well. But yeah, on the one hand, I'm not expecting him to keep scoring 20 goals in every 28 games he plays. And his shooting percentage is 21.5%. Now, the past two years, it was 14.5 and 15.9 respectively. And our pal Thomas Drans has done a really good job talking about this in the past of how he recently had changed the type of stick and the type of blade he uses to,

become more of a net front guy in terms of tips and deflections and being able to play in that area, the ice better and be more effective. And we've seen that this year where he's been one of the best players in the league, similar to, similar almost to what Chris Kreider did for the Rangers last year, right, where he's carving out space in front of the net there and then capitalizing on the opportunities that he's, that's being afforded to him and just, you know, making life incredibly difficult for the opposing goalie because he's all of a sudden changing the angle on all these shots that are coming in and really being effective in that regard. So I expect the goal goal scoring to come down and this is probably his peak value.

So if you are the Canucks, it would make a lot of sense to get ahead of this. And before it dries up a little bit, it comes back down to earth to see if you can cash on this while you can. I think that's such a no-brainer. But he is the captain of this team and they seem very reluctant to admit where they are as an organization. So considering they did just give all that money to J.T. Miller and they've gone so all in with this group, they're at a real crossroads.

And it's not the first time they've been in this position over the last couple years. And they've basically made all the wrong calls every step of the way. So very curious to see what they have here, but they have a real chance to reinvigorate the franchise with whatever potential return they could get for this player. But it is emotionally a tough call for them, and I do understand that as well. Yeah, definitely a tough call for them emotionally

because it's their captain. And it's like they didn't have to be in this position if they just handled things a little differently last year at Miller. Yes. Okay. I'm up with the Golden Knights. I didn't really have that much for this team because I was going to talk a lot about how I love that Eichol-Stone, Stevenson line. Ikel's obviously been out for the past couple games here and Remains

and I are, he'll hopefully be back sued and they can pick up where they left off. I think they've come back down to earth a little bit recently in terms of, you know, they started off so hot and they were basically winning every game and they've started to lose a few here. They look particularly poor on T&T the other night against the New York Rangers. I still think like the when they're healthy and they have all their players when Alex Petrangelo comes back when Jack O'clock comes back in the lineup. They're really deep. I really like the way they're playing under Bruce Cassidy. They found a nice mixture of retaining that puck possession game that they'd had in the past,

while also actually becoming a bit more dangerous offensively in terms of where they're generating those shots from. So it's not as point heavy. They're not just relying purely on Shay Theodore and Alex McRangelo to create everything for them. And so I really like the long-term outlook of this group, assuming they can get healthy and get all their guys together. And so I remain optimistic on them.

And I really haven't changed my tone after singing their praises at the start of the year, even though they have lost a couple games here. Yeah, I think this is probably like the weakest Golden Knight Squad we've seen them have in the last couple seasons too because, you know, they had to lose so many players due to cap concerns. And it's really nice to see how like Logan Thompson stepped up for them. I think he's been great. And, you know, a healthy Mark Stone is good. It's good for everyone. He's one of the best players in league. And, you know, they really, they're lucky that players like, you know, William Carlson, like he didn't repeat his first season. But he's still a very good defensive center. And he's still, you know, somewhere, he's somewhere in between the player he was before he went to Vegas in that first season. And they're still benefiting from that. He's been a better playmaker than has been a shooter since that first season. And, you know, the original misfits line, it still works. So, you know, help your team with the right direction that it seems they have right now. Like, this is going to be a team that should return to the playoffs.

And it should be a disappointment if they do anything less than that. Oh, yeah, I have higher expectations for that. I think there's, I mean, I guess I would still put Colorado at number one atop the Western conference when they're healthy. But I think the Golden Knights have the potential to be the scariest matchup for them if healthy while those guys are in there. So yeah, I expect big big things for them and I'm looking forward to seeing them at, you know, firing on all cylinders and full form like they were at the start of the year. All right. We're down to our final team here, Shane, the Winnipeg Jets.

Give me what you got. Okay. So the story we could talk about Connor Hellenbeck all day. He's having a Vesna Calibur season. Absolutely. I wanted to a little bit at Josh Morrissey because I did notice he was popping off a little bit more on the score sheet. He has 2.8 points per 60 right now, which is among the top defensemen in the league. And it's a big bounce back from last year where he was only scoring 1.2 points per 60. So I want to see what the difference was. Power play production is a big part of it. He has 15 points on the power player already,

where I think last year I think it 15 altogether. And at 5 on 5, we can see the team is better offensively. According to Micah's model, we see that they're 7% stronger than league average in generating expected goals with him on the ice while they're just about average without him. But the results are not matching up to expectations

at this point. the team's on our shooting percentage is up when last year it was down so you know it'll probably fall somewhere in the middle of that and the goal tending has been incredible while he's on the eye so I'm curious to see if he can you know maintain it but I do feel like with Winnipeg considering where they were we talk about the first year of the coaching um they were so poor at five on five the last couple years and now they're going to have they have a coach who's going to bring so much more structure to their game I think that there is a nice balance they can hit before I think that defensive structure is going to start weighing their game down and start dragging on the offense but I'm I am curious to see, like, if he can, if he has the confidence right now, which it seems like he does, and he's playing like a number one defenseman, which they need him to be, you know, where it can kind of meet in the middle when we expect the results to start regressing because it's not matching it, if the play below the surface is going to start picking it up. And it does feel like after the start, you know, the Jets had the first couple games, it was all goaltending and nothing else.

It feels like they're starting to, you know, pick it up a little bit more to support the goaltending. So I'm curious to see where he goes from here. And, you know, we know points can be everything to some people. So I do wonder if that's going to put him in the Norris conversation deservedly or not. You know, I'm really curious to see how much we start talking about the Josh Morrissey bounce back because of his results on the score sheet. Yeah, I think he's on pace for 94 points right now. And the Jets are atop the central division in terms of point percentage as well, right?

So if that keeps up, certainly he's going to get a lot of love. This came up on a mailbag yesterday. And so that's why I have it. He has a point on 58.5% of the goals that they've scored while he's been on the ice, which is basically like double his career average. So I think that explains partly why he's producing so much. He's just been involved so much in everything that I think that they've been scoring. I think that's going to regress a little bit. But he's clearly playing better and it's clearly an up to step in the right direction.

And we talk about bonus all the time in that defensive structure. I think this actually is the one group where it can be a net positive for them because it's been such an issue for them in the past. And they have so many individual playmakers that can create kind of quickly all these broken plays and all of counterattacks. So if they are better suited in the defensive zone, I think they'll be just for, fine offensively. So I think they found a nice balance in that regard. Okay, Shana, we did it. We powered through the 16 teams.

That was a blast. We jammed a lot of information in there. Hopefully, listeners, enjoyed it. I'll let you quickly plug stuff. Where can people check out the work that you do? You can find my writing on the athletic. I'm sure I have things coming up. A lot of year-end things in December vibe check and the best finishers of the year.

Things like that are coming up. And you can listen to me on the Too Many Men podcast. I love it. All right. Well, I'm glad that we were able to get you back on the show. We're certainly going to do this again, looking forward to it. Thank you for coming on. Thank you to our listeners for checking us out.

We'll be back tomorrow more. So thank you for listening to the HockeyPedocast here on the Sportsnet Radio Network.