The Hockey PDOcast - Unpacking This Weekend’s Flurry of Trades, and the Stakes for the Jets This Season

Episode Date: February 3, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to break down this weekend's pair of Canucks trades, how the Stars decided to spend their cap space on, and why the Winnipeg Jets are in a spot where the stakes for them are especially high this season. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast. My name is Dmitra Filippovich and joining me here in studio for our Sunday special. It's my good buddy, Tom Strans. Tom. What's going on, man. Not much, buddy. What a week for the NHL and then, of course, the NBA dunked on it on Saturday night. But nonetheless, some crazy trades, some late ones on Friday evening.

I thought really an entertaining day of hockey on Saturday. like throughout the day from J.T. Miller's debut right through that Flames, uh, Detroit game late. I mean, I was completely engrossed across 12 hours. Awesome. Awesome week for the NHL. And today is our version of the snow game as well. Both of us brave the conditions here in Vancouver about as aggressive as it will get in these parts, the first snowfall of the year. But we both made it into the studio. We got to give the people a great show. And the league certainly delivered, right? We couldn't miss this one. They gave us so much to parse through today.

We actually had a novel concept of like a tier show that we wanted to do, and then we got a couple trades. We'll tease it organically as we go along, and we probably kind of revisit it next week. Let's break down, let's start today's show, and talk about the combo of moves that the Canucks made on Friday night. We got a merciful resolution to the J.T. Miller saga, the dragged on for months. They send him and Eric Bransstrom to the Rangers for Philippeel,

Victor Mancini, top 13 protected this year, then hours later after the Stars game they played Friday night, they packaged that very first with Dan Hine and Vinnie Dayharnay, and they get back Marcus Peders and Andrew O'Connor. Now let's tackle these obviously together because I think they do work as a set, but also we've already done a full episode essentially documenting the entire J.T. Miller's story, his skill set as a player, what he provide, his fit. We already, I think it was two weeks ago that we did that. So go back and listen to it if you haven't yet. We don't need to rehash, we have so much to get through today. Also, the New York Rangers just added another

player that's, like, very much in line with four of the other guys that they have on their team, right? More offensive than defensive. You know, over the age of 30, right? I mean, in some ways, like, I think Miller will be effective for the Rangers. I'm sure fans will respond in a major way to what he brings. And yet, I mean, in some ways, the fit is a little bit dull because it's not a team, that can drive adding a guy who can help them convert, maybe help put them over the top in terms of their offensive engine. Instead, it's a team that's like that needs a driver getting a guy who himself sort of needs help driving. He's just not going to be able to sort of do the Atlas thing and hold up that particular sinking ship here. Well, you could say they added a driver and a capable one, but the car itself just needs to be taken in for some serious maintenance.

and removing the engine and all sorts of other work that's going to be very costly. The most important part of this from the Canucks perspective is they obviously got younger. Yep. They got deeper. Yep. And they got more flexible financially. Yes. They sent out $12.25 million in that they owed Miller, Dernay, and Hinen not only this year, but next year as well.

They take on about 10.3. Obviously, Pedersen and O'Connor coming from Pittsburgh or UFA's this summer. Let's talk about the impact. The club will extend them. They will. Or at least they're going to try this week. Yes. That flexibility will be eaten into by what the Canucks decide to do with Pedersen and, of course, with O'Connor.

But certainly, I think one thing that the Canucks absolutely needed to achieve in this deal and did was getting off the full freight of Miller's contract. Without eating any of it. And without taking something onerous back. I mean, Philippeal, obviously there's some injury risk on his profile, but he's 25 signed for this season and two more beyond it at what four point four point five something like that that's fine that's something you can eat that's something that's not a problem and in fact has a chance to be efficient for the connects i want to talk about the impact better since it's going to have because obviously this

couldn't come out of left field with the connection with alveen and rutherford this had been sort of the logical landing spot for them one it sounds like the penguins have been in on this for like a couple weeks like this was not something that came together suddenly obviously you can tell that by the way the dominoes fell, but it sounds like very early on, you know, two, two and a half weeks ago at least, I think the penguins were very much in the mix to be sort of a broker in a potential Canucks Rangers Miller swap. Yes. Which is good work, by the way. It is.

I want to talk to you about the fit because he's undoubtedly a good player. He represents a massive upgrade in utility and skill set for this Canucks blue line that it was imperative. They did something. Like, it just could not go on with the way it was constructed. It theoretically provides the option of fielding a second pair that can actually do something, anything, in the minutes that Quinn Hughes isn't out there. There's all sorts of just mind-melting Quinn Hughes stats this season in terms of his outsized impact on this team and the with or without you stats and everything.

But this one might be top of the list for me. Pretty much since the new year, the team's played 14 games. In their past 14 games, they've scored 30 goals as a team. Quinn Hughes has been on the ice for 22 of those. that means that in 510 minutes over the past 14 games, the team has generated 14 goals, or eight goals total, sorry, eight goals in 510 minutes, all situations. A Pedersen and Hornick pair, as a second pair, I think, can work.

It's obviously not ideal that the result of that, at least for now, is that that means Tyler Myers is playing on the top player with Quinn Hughes, but he's played well. And also, pretty much now because of Horonix injury earlier on, we've gotten enough of a sample where Quinn Hughes has essentially played the same amount with Myers and Hironic this year, and it speaks to Hughes's impact that the on-ice metrics

are pretty much identical or virtually so for the Knoch, so I think you can... Does that change in any way how you're, like how you assess Heronic in Vancouver? If anyone can do it, or if Myers can do it,

right? If Ethan Bear can do it, is there an element to which we need to rethink Heronics overall impact? I think... I'm just curious. I've sort of...

I'm just asking questions. I'm just asking questions. I'm just asking questions. I think TBD, and this is why I say that, because, and part of this might be just because of necessity, but in Pittsburgh, especially the past two years, Marcus Pedersen pretty much played entirely with either Eric Carlson or Chris LaTang. Obviously, Chris LaTang, especially this year's, is a shell of the player he used to be.

But still, puck moving talent, ability to be the primary distributor, get the puck out of your zone, get the puck up the ice at a forwards. We haven't really seen Pedersen call. upon to do that and I don't think he's necessarily excelled in terms of like I think in the offensive zone his ability to astutely keep moving the puck going and facilitate offensive zone possessions I don't think he's a skillless player but I just in terms of like conventional going back getting the puck retrieving it and then bumping it up to a forward and making sure it's clean he hasn't really been asked to do that that much and so in this situation either he's going to show us that he actually does have that in his bag

or it's going to be incumbent or it's going to be like incredibly important for the pro to take on that responsibility. And so to circle back to your question, I think we're going to get an answer pretty quickly because we'll see what that situation looks like and whether they can basically replicate what Pedersen was having in Pittsburgh. I will still say though,

regardless of where, how open-minded you are about the idea that Heronics, you know, capable of driving his own pair or not, there is still some clicks off the fastball when you put Hughes with other defenders. I do think Heronic materially does add, you know, in the same way that like Bouchard's perfectly calibrated to eat within the environment that McDavid creates. I think Hironic is, you know, has a similar impact or a similar symbiosis with Hughes.

And I do think fundamentally if this team's going to outlast the flames, get back into the playoff mix, be anything remotely resembling a tough out in the playoffs, I do think that dynamic's going to have to be something they can lean on is, is low. putting up that top pair and going out there and feeling like you have one of the best, if not the outright best defense pairs in the league. I think Myers-Peterson can work, but maybe not. I suppose we'll learn quickly. The other part of this is Hughes is a game-time decision tonight. So we're recording this on Saturday afternoon. Sunday afternoon, yep.

Against the Detroit Red Wings and looked pretty uncomfortable against the Dallas stars. In addition to, of course, what's been going on with his hand and the gnarly brace that he's been wearing there. I don't know, man. I don't know if, like, the real heroic Pedersen test might not be, how do they do as a second pair? It might be, can they, you know, hold their head above water for a couple weeks or a couple games anyway, if Hughes isn't it? I think that's totally fair. As someone who has watched a truly inexplicable amount of Pittsburgh Penguins hockey over the past couple years,

considering how they've actually played in those games. I think Pedersen's a good player. Me too. Beyond the puck moving stuff, I will say two sort of traits in his game that I'd caution about or bring to attention is one, and maybe this is a personal pet peeve, more so than some sort of fatal flaw. But arguably no defender in the league, other than maybe Tyler Myers, likes to leave their feet defending two-on-ones and odd man rushes more than he does. And it drives me crazy because he just takes himself out of the play.

do. And so now playing with Eric Carlson in particular in that environment, that probably exposed them to having to sort of be in those dire circumstances, maybe a bit more than he will be on this Canucks team that's much more conservative, I guess, in terms of how far up the ice they push. And then the other, and maybe this one's sort of flashing forward to both the upcoming extension that you hinted at, and also if this team does make the playoffs and has hopes of going on a long run, is he takes an ungodly amount of punishment. Like him, especially in terms of like when he does have the puck in his own zone, he just gets absolutely plastered so often.

And obviously a very tough guy doesn't miss a lot of games, but we know that in the playoffs, the foreshicking is ramped up several notches, and that becomes much more of a factor, I think. And so there's just something not kind of keeping the back of your mind moving forward, but obviously represents a massive upgrade for this team. Do you want to talk about, I don't have that much, much on Drew O'Connor. I think he's a nice player. I think Rick Tock is going to love him.

Yeah. He's shown that he clearly doesn't have finishing ability. And so maybe coming to Vancouver, as we've seen over the past, especially last year, maybe he will have a bit of a PDO boost, but I also would not bet on that. Maybe he gets on the PDO Bender? Yes. Don't you feel like him and Farrerby are basically, so him and Farrerby both traded, Joel Farabee, of course, traded to the Calgary flames this week, I feel like they are basically having the same. in the same season. Like they score their goals the same way. They look good for the same reasons.

I think Drew O'Connor's maybe got a little bit more bite, but I think Farabee has a little more skill. Yeah, I think he's much more talented. Yeah, for sure. But fundamentally, they scored a god-awful amount of rush goals and goals off like deflections and at the net front. And I just think it's instructive for people when you think about, like what does an unsusely?

sustainable goal scoring run look like. Unscreened wrist shot rush goals, goals, deflection goals and goals like at the net front, right? Where it's like, man, he's always in the right spot. It's like he probably is. But also even the rate at which those passes make it through or which those pucks fall is, there's a level to which that's unsustainable as samples expand. And so more than anything, as I was thinking about Farabia,

as I was thinking about O'Connor, as I was thinking about the seasons that they had, this year that led them to get traded, I do think it's worth sort of keeping in mind how both of those guys scored their goals, because I think it's eerily similar. And the fact that both have fallen off, I actually think, is instructive. It is. I mean, mentioned the clear need for upgrading the defensive talent, and maybe that ties into why they've struggled so much offensively

and why, like, when Quinn Hughes is on the ice, because he's capable of doing a lot of these things, they actually look functional and quite good. And then when he's not, there isn't anyone really to help kind of facilitate. facilitate that, but this Canucks team is 28th and expected goals generated, 30 second in slot shots. They're down to 4.8 rush chances per game, which is below last year's league worst rate, and is once again, league worst.

And so remodeling how they play and the personnel makes a lot of sense. I'm very interested to watch more Philippaetal. I think certainly, I love his game. I think he uses his frame really well. He's obviously immensely talented. He's turning 26. you have them at 4.4 the next two years. I get, and I know, like, you talk to people in different teams,

and your mileage on this varies so drastically, right? There's, like, some teams that are with that history of the head injuries, that's, like, something you don't want to mess with, and you don't want to be part of. Some other teams are much more willing to take on that risk because the upside is so high. You could argue that it's such a dangerous game that pretty much every player carries a certain amount of head injury risk,

because all it takes is one unfortunate play, and all of a sudden you have that history of your own. We've also seen a bunch of examples over the past 10, 15 years, of young players who early on in their career sustained a couple head injuries and then wound up to have long productive careers without that really recurring or being a recurring theme. So I think it's a totally fine risk to take. I think this is the high upside offensive player

that makes a lot of sense for the Canucks. And so I like that part of it. One thing I was told about the injury risk side is that the Canucks did some homework on the medicals. Now, Heedles, of course, a CAA client, CAA also represents Patterson Hughes, right? I mean, a huge degree of familiarity between the Canucks and his agency. But I was told they looked in the medicals and believe that there is material reason to think that some of the risk factor here is a little bit overstated based on what's been reported publicly. and sort of in trying to make calls and figure this out over the course of this weekend, I think there's some things that they've learned about what he's dealt with

and sort of the suspected concussion issues, that even within his camp and the player himself are like trying to figure out how to talk about. But I think there's more that we're going to learn about this in the next few months. And I think the Canucks were pretty comfortable taking, like, I don't know that they viewed it as a risk the way that like hockey Twitter did when the trade went down. That's fair. I think there's a couple other trickle-downs from the Knoch's perspective that I want to get to hear with you. One is the obvious, the elephant in the room, of removing J.T. Miller from the situation and giving

yourself a chance to have a more clear-eyed evaluation period of Lace Patterson. He looked pretty dialed in that first game. He looked pretty dialed. I'm still not hesitant. I'm cautious about how he looks physically still. Yeah. Like just in terms of like how he's moving, I just, it doesn't. He hasn't been healthy all season.

Yes. And so that's obviously playing a part in this. But as we've talked about come July 1st, you essentially lock yourself into seven more years when the No Move Clause kicks in. And so I think this is an interesting period for him. Certainly with Pedersen. And so now you have whatever the rest of this regular season, hopefully the playoffs. And then hopefully all goes well. It's an on issue because he's 26.

Sorry, I don't know if Pedersen's been hurt all season. I thought we'd switch to talking about Miller's first game with the Rangers when I was saying. No, no, no. I was talking about all the stats we talked about all, like, he's shot not being as fast, his skating speed, everything, kind of hallmarks of a player who's not physically feeling himself. Yeah. So that makes an interesting timeline here for them. Do you want to talk about the Rangers first that was moved in this deal?

Sure. Because this is a recurring theme. Now, right, we saw the stars move there first in the trade that we're going to talk about in a bit here. I suspect you're going to see a lot of 2025 first round picks move between now and the trade deadline. I don't love that take because I get the argument of it is like the top of the class is quite good and then there's a lot of difference of opinion and uncertainty around the prospects and it's like oh well someone that you might get at 16th overall might not even be better

than someone you get at 33 or whatever. I just feel like we do this recurringly where it's like at this time. of the year, the draft is underplayed. And then by the time you get to June 20th, I think everyone is going to start valuing those draft picks again. Here's what this draft class doesn't have is they don't have. I mean, you're right, the cost of draft picks once you get to the draft floor. Everyone's going to want them. Yes, for sure. But the, but that's, that's human nature. The, yeah, everyone plays in fantasy leagues, right? It's like, The 2025, the 2025 draft, though, doesn't have, I mean, Nathan Schaefer's emerged as sort of the consensus, but it's not like there was...

Matthew Schaefer? Matthew Schaefer, excuse me. It's not like there was a, you know, a celebrini or Bessard type guy, or next year there's going to be McKenna, or next year there's going to be DePont. It's like, we know years out who the first overall pick is going to be across all of these drafts, like, 2000. 23 through 2007 with the exception of this year. And Shaver's emerged, but, you know, I thought it was going to be Huggins two years ago. And so I do think there's a little bit of relative to some of the high-end talent we've seen at the top of the class. I think there's that.

And then I do think there's a little bit less depth, especially relative to like what we saw in Nashville in 2023, where, you know, I feel pretty good about 50 guys in that draft class being at the very least special lottery tickets. So I do think you're going to see a lot of those picks move. I do think the industry is feeling about the 2025 class. I heard it a ton in the wake of the Canucks first trade. A lot of people around the industry really liked that the pick had a chance to convert into 2026. I think there's excitement about that. How about this, though?

I'd add this with the cap agreement sort of fixed. I do think there's an element to which you know, you still want, obviously. edge is still massive if you're able to have entry-level talent, but it's not like you need it to survive in the same way or it shouldn't be over the next two years. Maybe over the next two years, I think over the long haul, if anything, I'd make the counterargument where having the cost control for obviously the first three years, but even up to seven, is so valuable compared to this free market where we're going to see free agents who probably don't deserve the contract they're going to get just because teams have more

cap space to allocate to them. Right. But I do think if you're a team with a locked up core, right? I think there's going to be different ways that you can build, whereas I think for much of the last five years, you know, it basically came down like, do you have an Anton Lindel as your third line center? Do you have a Wyatt Johnston crushing it in the playoffs? And if the teams that did, like, it was required to go deep in the playoffs in a way that I suspect it won't be in a couple years time. Well, and that's why this Rangers first is interesting because they're currently 22nd and point percentage. They're going to have to. to jump essentially four teams at least to get one of the Eastern Conference Rob cards. There's seven points out. They haven't implied probability of about like low, like 30 to 31 percent on the market. I think Dom's model upgraded them to 46 percent in the wake of the Miller. Okay. Well, this morning, the market, especially after the lost of Bruins, has them in the low 30s. And I mean, first off, it's in play that that could be like

pick 14 or 15. Yeah. Because it has stopped their interne protected. But also, as you said, if If they bottom out this year, that's a high pick that they retain, all of a sudden it becomes a very interesting lottery tickets. It's tough to envision, even though I think you and I are kind of bearish on the Raiders moving forward. And I don't think this trade really helps that in terms of restricting their ability to get better. It's tough to envision a scenario where they're like... Bottom five? Yeah, the third worst team next season just because I don't think...

I mean, obviously they won't have their first, but it's kind of tough to see them totally going in that direction. Players want to play there? Yes. They're going to get, you know, probably a couple college free agents who are probably pretty close to NHL ready in terms of adding depth. They're going to be an attractive landing spot for free agents. They've generally done a pretty good job of finding like an Eric Gustafson type in free agency every year. I mean, I agree with you. And then, of course, they have Adam Box.

They have Igor Shostirken. Those guys are under 30. Obviously, Alexis Lafrenier, although he's perhaps not had the season. that we were hoping when we made him one of our guys going into this campaign. You know, those guys at least still have upside cases. I think the issue that the reason I like the bet, the upside bet from the Penguins' perspective is, first of all, they just need whatever long shot upside lotto tickets that they can get.

And I think this is a really good one. The profile of the Rangers where you've got Panarin, you've got Crider, you've got Miller, you've got Trocheque, you've got Sabanajad, who's, you know, 31 in his game looks like he's 38, right? And in Miller's first game, immediately Peter D'Eleby, that was like, nice. I have a reason to bump him to the wing here. I mean, he was still playing on the first line with Panarin and Miller.

I thought that line looked pretty good, too. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Miller obviously scored the two goals, was on the top unit power play. But the, anyway, coming back to this, I just think that's A, the profile you want to bet against, but B, I think the Rangers issue here, or the thing that would make me queasy if I was on the Rangers

side of this deal is how young Columbus, Ottawa, and Montreal are. And the fact that the way those teams are playing, like these surges, these mid-season surges we're seeing from all three teams, don't feel ephemeral to me. They feel like a sign of things or an early sign of things to come. Yes. A power dynamic. An actual group of teams led by, you know, mostly players who I think we expect to improve, that's not guaranteed, but we expect to improve who are legitimately playing better hockey than the Rangers now and have a far more straightforward path to getting better next season than the Rangers do to rebound. And that would make me nervous because, I mean, you mentioned those three teams, it's like, then you get into the capitals and the devils

and the hurricanes and the Leifes and the Panthers. And all of a sudden, your team, you're talking about the Rangers as, you know, probably on the outside. Like, they're going to have plus odds I'd bet in the summer to be a playoff team next year. They will. I want to end with this and then we're going to go to break and then we're going to move on to talking about the other trade that we saw this weekend. I want to tap into your wealth of knowledge covering this team, the Canucks that is, and your interactions with them on a daily basis and everything.

Here's my first question to you. How do you feel about the idea because a lot of what the Canucks do in terms of the players they acquire even in this deal i mean obviously peterson is an upgrade regardless but think back to what i just said about how it's like yeah i i feel like drew o'connor's probably going to get into rick talk it's good books pretty quickly with the way he plays and that fit of a team sort of making personnel decisions like this that fit with their coach's preferences when it's still not set in stone in terms of what the timeline is for how long that person's actually going to be the coach of the team.

Right. Considering his obvious contract status, they do have a team option for the 25-26 season, but there obviously hasn't been an extension yet. I imagine the rest of the season's probably going to play a role in that decision. But you know what I mean? It's kind of interesting where they have such a particular style in terms of the idea of the way they want to play the players the coach is going to like, and then players like you're bringing in Dan Hine and it's like, all right, well, you watch a couple

games and you're like, yeah, I can see why this guy's not going to be a fit here with his coach. And not that these moves necessarily reflect that entirely, but just the logic moving forward of like targeting certain types of players for the way you're playing right now, even though, let's say the season goes south, that might not necessarily be the vision for the way you want to play as soon as the start of next year. So I think there's a lot to unpack in what you just brought up. The, you know, you lose J.T. Miller, you add Philippeatel. Philippeatel's listed at six foot three, but you got a lot less heavy, right?

Now, Pedersen's a tall drink of water, but he's also not, like, he's like a willing fighter and like a physical player and tastes a lot of events. He's a tough guy, but he uses his reach more than, like, bodying for sure. Right. He's a, he's a tough guy, but he's not the same variety of heavy. that a guy like J.T. Miller is. Like, who initiates and sort of matches that template of a raw, raw, you know, hockey leader in a totally different way. I think the, so I think adding a, adding a guy like O'Connor, just some speed, some size, you know, especially because Dakota Joshua is still finding his stride.

Like, I think the Canucks felt the need to do that. And I think they needed it from, certainly from Tocat's perspective. In a world where Tocat, who, you know, he's got a team option. for next year, I would expect the club to, the club wants him to be the coach of this team. But in a world where, you know, something changed there, I still think the Canucks would be looking for a coach who was willing to emulate a lot of what, like, because they view it as quality structural hockey. That's how they want to play.

They want to start with defense. They want to have good goaltending. They want to, you know, play organized hockey. We know that from the very pointed criticism they had of Bruce, Boudreau over the years. So I think whether it's Tocut or someone else, I think the sort of template way they want to play, I think is clear. And I think that would be consistent if they went out and got someone else. I mean, you think about Rutherford style coaches across the league, Paul Maurice, Mike Sullivan, right? I mean, there's a certain commonality in terms of structural concepts,

I think, between those two guys and Tockeet, for example. All right. Let's take our break here. I had other stuff that I wanted to get to, but we'll save it for another day. I think we'll have time to talk about more Canucks-related stuff because we got so many other things to cover. We're going to take our break here, and then we come back. We'll jump right back into it. You're listening to the Hockey P.D. Ocast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the Hockey Pee-Ocast, joined by Thomas Trans. We're doing our Sunday special.

Tom, let's move over to the other trade we saw on Saturday. The Stars Acquire Michael Granland and Cody Cici. That's Big Game. Cody Cici, Mr. Game 7 himself for the 20-25 first and a 20, 2025 fourth, which is originally Winnipeg, so a quite low one that could become the stars 2025 third if they make the Stanley Cup final this year. Now, listen, let me get this out of the way. I actually think I'm higher on Granlin as a player than you are based on off my conversations.

I think he can fill the hole down the middle while he ends out for the rest of the year. And then at full health for this team as currently constructed can be a useful middle six creator. At full health, I did a full show on Dallas this past week and something that I was noting was for as deep and skilled and talented as a team they are, I actually think that their actual passing ability as a team is not nearly as good as you'd expect from a contender in their status. And that is something from like a pure skill perspective that Michael Granland helps improve and excels that individually. He's in addition to their Finnish mafia. Of course, he turns 33 in a couple weeks.

And I wouldn't be surprised if a year and a half from now, because it does sound like they're probably going to work on an extension with him as well based on Elliot Freeman's reporting, that two or three years for now it's like, all right, he's another one of these guys that towards the end of their career in their early to mid-30s had another stretch tacked on essentially because of the environment and how they seem to be able to get more out of these guys after they come into the team. He's a rush facilitator. I think he's going to help them in terms of the finishing, just getting pucks in better spots. I think something important to keep in mind with him, though, is. is that he bounced back post Pittsburgh, right? He had those like 20 games or whatever.

After he got to Pittsburgh, it went horribly. Then he was part of the Air Carlson deal. He's put up 105 points in his 121 Sharks games. He did that while playing 2054 per game, which is top 10 in the league amongst all forwards. And there's obviously no universe in which that is going to happen in Dallas for him. And that's why from a Sharks perspective, like this is such a home run for Mike Rear,

because we talk often about how if you're going to be a bad team and you have a bunch of open minutes getting a reclamation project like this, right? Where you bring them in, you juice them in terms of the offensive totals with like top power play, top even straight minutes, play with whatever best players we do have, even if they aren't necessarily great. Someone's got to score points on every team.

And so doing that and getting a first out of this, obviously the fourth as well as part of this deal, is a master class in terms of like how to rebuild and ways to actually manufacture. extra assets out of thin air. So I think my issue or where where I suspect the space between my assessment of Grandland and yours exists is I just think he's perfectly calibrated to do exactly that. Soak up those minutes and put up some points on the 24th through 28th best team in the league.

Yeah. I think he's sort of like the definition of a low end top of the lineup center as opposed to being a guy that can give Dallas a gear further down the lineup. I just I just think that that's going to be asking a little much. And I think we're going to see some of what we saw in like Nashville and Pittsburgh where the holes in his game are more evident in a higher pressure win at all costs environment. Yeah. That's my strong suspicion. I was making the argument from like the skills he has and the blind spots that Dallas has up front right now.

Makes sense. I think that that makes sense. I imagine that was their logic internally as well. My issue with it, though, is that as we've spoken about, Jim Nill was in such a clear position here to take a massive home run cut between now and end of the season with the amount of LTIR space he had and how good the team he has is. And this was the equivalent to me of like a bloop single

that could potentially be legged out into getting second base as well. And the sharks had no extra retention slots here, right? They've used all three. And so the market for me in terms of obviously you can involve third-party brokers and give them a third or fourth or whatever.

That was an option for the sharks. But I think the market would have been so low for any team to take on Grandin's full freight, five million he's owed, or the cap hit he holds, and certainly CC's 3.25 as a rental defenseman. And so in terms of who you were bidding against here and what was happening, I just feel like it was unnecessary from the Star's perspective.

I feel like they didn't optimize or realize the full potential of how much better they could have gotten. They still have about 2.85, I believe, in terms of LTR space to add, although they moved their first year, which was also surprising because Jim Nell really doesn't like to do that. And so they're not going to move any of their young players that are on their team right now. so in terms of like what other ads there could be, I think it is pretty limited in that sense. I wonder, I'm curious for your take on this, how much you think the role of uncertainty played here for the stars?

Because I think that's something that creates such a crossroads, depending on your perspective, right? Because some people view uncertainty both internally, but also in terms of the league and the environment right now with the cap, of like, well, I'm going to use this as an opportunity to be even more, aggressive. And to try to capitalize on some benefit from it, some people view uncertainty as like, I'm going to take a bit of a step back here and try to like cover as many bases as I can and keep my options open moving forward and not necessarily go that route. With Miro's knee injury

and he's going to have surgery, it sounds like they're hopeful that he's going to come back, but obviously that provides a layer of uncertainty. The cap going up, I just wonder, like, obviously this deal, I'm not trying to portray it as a disaster. because on the relative scale of Dallas sports teams making trades this weekend, it registers very low. But I don't know. I was just felt wanting more, I guess, here. And I'm not going to make the argument again for why the home run cut I'm alluding to should have been Eric Carlson. I just, I feel like it was a misopportunity, I guess, for the stars.

And that's what I feel like I'm lamenting more than anything. Yeah, I think the key to understand. what we just saw here, right, is really sort of thinking about, like, okay, the five highest scoring centermen on expiring contracts includes Sam Bennett, who's not getting traded, Brock Nelson, who's probably no longer getting traded, given the way that they've searched in the incentives at play for Lou Lamarillo and the New York Islanders. Claude Jureu, his team's in a playoff spot. John Tavares, his team's in a playoff spot.

And actually, number one, with 45 points, is Miguel Granland. Right? Once you get below that group, it's like, Jake Evans, you know, Yesper Bokvist, Nick Dowd, not getting dealt, Kerfut, probably not getting dealt. Any, Gord just got hurt. Yeah. I mean, the amount of centermen around the league that qualify as classic rentals is pretty limited. And then you look at the same thing with right defenders. Pionk, not going anywhere.

Eckblad not going anywhere. Burns not going anywhere. Cody Sisi is fourth, the fourth highest scoring, right-handed defenseman. And Jonathan Kovicevich would be next. And then you get to like Purbix, Chisholm, Nate Schmidt, like none of these teams, David Savard is probably the next best guy you can get among the rental, possible rental defenseman. And so I'm just talking about the guys who are actually expiring. I think one thing that factored in here is, A, prices are high, right? We saw that with the cost of Marcus Pedersen. And B, if what you really need is a center and a right-handed defender, like, good luck.

Like among rental players, right? The Dallas Stars just acquired the top scoring centerman bound for unrestricted free agency. and the fourth highest scoring right-handed defenseman and the only one of the top five who might actually move, who doesn't play for a contending team that for sure is not in the business of selling at the moment. So I think where the rubber meets the road here, because I agree with you, there's a level of, there's a lack of ambition here that, you know, is unfortunate given the price paid.

You'd have loved to see Dallas find something more creative, and something potentially higher impact. But from a get out in front of the market and make a classic hockey buy for two rental players that doesn't hamstring your flexibility beyond this season, that's not like a significant commitment, but allows you to get upgrades at two positions a need and then not be affiliated necessarily

or at least committed to the pieces you brought in beyond the season. I mean, Dallas arguably got the two highest, impact players for those slots. And the rarity, I think, the lack of market generally, I think probably is what drove or inflated these prices despite, you know, San Jose's unique lack of leverage as a result of their retention positioning. Well, and that's exactly what I'm saying

in terms of how the uncertainty can push you in either direction, right? Because the cap is going up to 95.5 next year and then into the hundreds, the following year. Now, for the stars, I mean, obviously that's good. It's good for every team, especially contenders. But it's unique for them because in those two next summers, they're going to have to pay why Johnston, Thomas Harley, and Jason Robertson significantly more than they're making right now, right?

Whereas you compare it to some of the other teams that already, in terms of the timing of the contracts and already having those salaries budgeted for, I imagine that dictated part of this, that's certainly how you feel about it. I guess for me, like you look at the state of this blue line and Neil Zunquist is now out for the year. The right shots on this team are Aaliyah Lubushkin, who actually has been really solid for them this year. I'm familiar with this game though.

And what I'll say about that? And how much did we see this last postseason? Especially when we were watching the games together during our sojourn to Palm Springs. In the big moments of a lot of these playoff games, how often does the puck find itself to one of these guys who happens to be on the ice? And it's like when you brought him in, you're like, all right, well, he can do these things in our zone. So I'm not worried about it because you have to have different types of players. And then all of a sudden, it's Joel Edmondson getting teed up by Mitch Martner,

misses the net, and you're like, ah, well, that's a shame. It's like, yeah, you probably could have foreseen this coming because if this guy's going to play a big role in your team, and you're going to play a bunch of coin flip one goal games in the playoffs in a tie game with three minutes left the third period, you've had possession for a minute and a half in the offensive zone, the other team's reeling, it comes to Cody Cici, and he comically misses the net, and it clears his own, and you're like, ah. He's the old guy you most want with the puck on his stick in those tight games. Does Nicky and be the trigger man?

By the time you get to game seven, we saw it last year, right? Cody Cici's your man. We did. I don't know, man. I'm just, I'm so wary of that. You're also ignoring the ability that Pete DeBore is going to now have. to channel Noblock and do the enter every series with Esa Lindel and Cody Cici is the lockdown pair against every other team's top line. And then you get away from it as the series goes on and things start to shift in your favor and you outcoached your opponent.

Every single series. It's true. He's got it. He's got the master card to play. I just reject the notion that like other moves like trading for a carlinson represents bigger risk. because for me, the biggest risk for the stars is you've just made the Western Conference final in back-to-back years. You have a really good team, and it's wasting a year while you have all these players that are really good. And I understand a lot of these guys are still in their 20s, and you're going to have them for a long time.

But that's a risk to me, especially, like we just saw in the Canucks trade with the Penguins that we talked about in the first half, the penguins were happy to take on the money owed to Vinnie de Herné. next year and that's two million i imagine in any deal there they would have been just as happy to take on the euro to matt dumba next year as well and so there were so many creative options here for like mitigating the risk in terms of future expenditure i mean they're spending 10.25 million in terms of this year's cap on those three right shot defensemen that i just mentioned and so that's just not good enough for me do you want to talk about the real big winners of this weekend though Yeah. The Winnipeg Jets. The Winnipeg Jets. Now here's my take.

This is a great take, by the way. I love it. So at some point on Friday in the early afternoon, it did sound like the avalanche were legitimately in the mix for J.T. Miller. And that probably would have involved just upgrading from Casey Middles that to him, obviously with other stuff, but just in terms of how it affects their current lineup. That didn't happen. The Stars did what they just did. And I feel like didn't get better. better their full potential. And those are teams who are obviously Central Division rivals. The Jets are probably going to have, I mean, almost certainly going to have to go through one of them in round two to get to the West Final.

And you look at the week the Jets just had, they first completely outclass the flames at home. Then they go into Boston and just smack the Bruins around. And then they cap it off with this awesome game on Saturday night that I think a lot of people were probably fixated on the end of Oilers' leaves and deservedly so, that was also a really fun game. But if you watch that Saturday night game in Washington between, by the way, the two top teams in the league by points, five, four overtime win for the Jets. And I just think they had continued essentially along the track they've been on for a while now. But I feel like you take stock, which is kind of what we do on these shows right now and how things stand and how you should be feeling about your situation.

I feel like if you're the Jets, you're feeling pretty. good right now about the way things have kind of unfolded here. Well, you should. Yeah. The, so the, I mean, first of all, they've put a little bit of space between themselves and everybody else in the central, right? So they're cruising a little bit with a, oh, my goodness, they have a 10-point lead over the Dallas Stars, although the Stars have three games in hand. So a significant amount. But nonetheless, that's a pretty big edge. They lead the Western Conference in goal differential by a preposterous amount, like almost 30 goals. And they are now cruising with, you know, I mean, a pretty decent

probability of emerging as the one seed outright. Yep. So even from that perspective, right, Calgary's gotten better, but this Vancouver team, which, I think has at least the upside case with J.T. Miller in the lineup where it's like, okay, they've got... You're talking about their most likely first-round opponent. Yeah. Yeah. Like that part of their sort of, I want to say risk profile, but that part of their outlook

just got a little bit more feasible, a little bit softer, right, from their perspective, too. And I think you're right. The Colorado Avalanche missed the J.T. Miller boat. And the Dallas Stars made a trade that I don't think we think moves the needle in enough for them. So, and they're playing really good hockey themselves. And they won an absolute sick game on Saturday. A heavyweight tilt, yeah. Heavyweight tilt. Everything's coming up Winnipeg, and I think that matters a ton because there's, there should be a lot of incentive for them to go for it and be as aggressive as any team we've seen maybe ever across the next couple months.

Now, this is the PDO cast, and so we have to get deep here. And I'm going to spend a couple minutes highlighting the impact that Dylan Sandberg has had on this team, where I have, I imagine if you watch a lot of shows or listen to a lot of shows, you're probably not going to hear it that much. But that's why you come here with him in the lineup this year. By the way, the amount of Dylan Sandberg texts back and forth yesterday was fantastic. Release the text. 26, 5, and 1 with him in the lineup this year. They went 11, 9, and 2 in the games he missed after he broke his foot in November.

Neil Pionk's with or without you stats with him in the lineup. 500 515 minutes with him in those minutes, 57.5.5% shots, 56% high danger chances, 57.7% expected goals in the 500 minutes without Dylan Sandberg. All those numbers drop to sub-45%. They're up 31 to 20 in his 5-1-5 minutes all told. And he's awesome.

He had this assist in that flames game I mentioned where off the rush he like does this kind of quick little drop pass behind his back to Gabe Vlarity to free him into space to beat the goalie. Everything is so smooth. He's made such a big difference. on that pair. He's an RFA this summer. They need to get him extended ASAP because he's making like, what, 1.4 this year and he's a 26 year old. That's one of those where you do it as soon as you possibly can and not even mess with that. The other thing that I wanted to mention about this team and sort of their margin for error, you and I talk often about like outs for teams in terms of ways they can win, not having to just be boxed in with like having to play one particular type of game to have some. success. Their power play is so fun to watch. They're clicking at 13.2 goals per hour right now.

Next up is New Jersey at 10.8. Now, to put that into perspective, the Jets could not score on their next 25 power plays, go 50 straight minutes on the mad advantage without scoring, and they'd still be first in the league. Wow. Yes. That's incredible. The goaltending, Hellebuck is given up two goals or less in 27 of his 42 starts. My God. Now probably shouldn't be at 42 starts as we've talked about. I'd like to see them dial that back a little bit, especially with his cushion. A lot.

A lot. But I mean, like, he's stopping 92.5. Like, he's a 925, say a percentage. They give up 28 shots a game. It's like, all right. So we're going to give up two goals today because Conner Hella Hullibuck's in net and this is what we're giving up. Our power play is almost certainly going to score once.

The bar you have to clear as a team to have a chance to win that game is, you know, arguably as low as any teams in the league. Maybe Edmonton just because, like, if you need to in a pinch, McDavid and Dreythel can just play double shift and score goals at a freakish rate. But like, from a team perspective, the outs here are like,

are so high because of that power play and the goaltending. And then obviously the 5-1 play, five-way play itself, it's not like, this isn't one of those situations where it's a team that's just purely coasting on those two things either. Like I really like the way they play,

especially with, I mean, the top two lines are quite good. Lowry's been out for a while. here's my question for you because we sort of talked about how we're going to tease this the stakes tiers for this year and that's st-a-k-E-S not the meat we'll fully flesh it out next week but the reason why we wanted to do it is because we got on this jets kick and we were bouncing around ideas back and forth talking about them and obviously raving about Dylan Samburter along the way and the jets are kind of in this perfect storm

where you could almost make a case that they have the highest stakes in terms of incentive for this season. First, you have the relative lack of playoff success, obviously. They lose to the Golden Knights two years ago in five games, I believe, on route to the Knights title that year. Then last year, they have Home Ice Against the Aves, they win game one, and then everything just kind of falls off after that. they have this continuity already. They have a team playing so well. They have the uncertainty of Eilers' UFA status this summer. They have significant room to add,

and I'd argue pretty easily identifiable upgrades so we can get into those here if you want. And also for them, going forward in this current climate with things capped the way they are compared to the potential of having to compete with other organizations that are spending over $100 million, two years for now. I feel like puts their incentives and their stakes for this year,

I think number one compared to everyone else in the league. I think without question. There's, I mean, there's a decent window here, but yeah, you throw the way that the cap is about to expand, the upper limit is about to go up, the obvious sort of financial situation that the Winnipeg Jets have to contend with, which is a unique one around the league. I mean, they are by far,

in, they are by far the smallest of the small market teams. And then Eelers, like, we all kind of have a sense that Eelers is more likely to move on than not at the end of this contract, right? I don't think that's any secret. I mean, he's been on the block for, what, 18 of the last 24 months? And he shouldn't be on the block now. Like, they have to take this kick at the can, in my view. It's too important for the city of Winnipeg, right? I think we're at the point, too, where it's like,

it might not just be this franchise's best opportunity this year. It might be the city's best opportunity in a totally different way than when we talk about the other contenders. And that, I think, puts them, vaults them well to the front of the pack of the stakes tiers. And Dom's model has them as like 11% to win the cup. Fandu has them at plus 1,700. Cup odds, which just don't feel right to me. No.

I mean, we text all the time. And what was it? Like, two weeks ago, I don't even remember what game I was watching, but I was just like, I don't see a world where this isn't the best team in hockey. They're so fun to watch right now. They're so fun to watch. You see that continuity, especially on the power play with, like, how they move the puck where they know where each guy is going to be.

They have now, and they've made structural changes dating back to last year, certainly, but this year, I feel like taking it to another degree of, like, when you watch their breakouts, the precision and support and, like, how connected the, forwards and defensemen are. And I just said how the stars I don't think are a very good passing team. Like this Jets team is a very, very good one in terms of the way they move. And I think that explains a lot of the efficiency they have. And so it's really just such a well-old machine.

I think it's an awesome group. I'd like to see them. What would you like to see them do? I think upgrading, like I like Vladim Mestikov as a player. He's played really well between Perfetti and Eilers. Those two guys create so much space, though, and such high-danger opportunity. that I feel like just a more talented player would be very intriguing there. I think this is very low stakes relatively,

but the third shot left deep, because I do feel like on the rare occasion there have been gaps for this team, it's like, oh, it was Logan Stanley again. He's back at it. And I feel like getting someone more skilled and reliable there, I feel like would be interesting. I think those are very doable, though, because they have assets and they also have most importantly space to do so.

So it's not like one of those things where they have to get incredibly creative. I feel like upgrading on this team that's already first is quite doable. Yeah. The center issue, I mean, Adam Lowry will help, right? Yeah, of course. Without question. I just would like to see them add some answers with some speed. Yeah.

Especially after what you saw last year against Colorado, where Colorado brought the speed and it almost discombobulated and tore down everything they'd spend all year building up. Yeah. And I just think the, so like, you know, useful depth, guy I like, very much like. But Alex I follow, right, who's expiring at $4 million and is playing mostly fourth line wing for them, right? He's played up and down, up a little bit. But like for me, that's, that's money to reallocate.

And I'd like to see whether it's a defense, like, I'm not even saying a defender who absolutely necessarily kicks Logan Stanley out of the lineup, but someone who can if you need it, right? Someone who can with a different profile if you need it. I'd like to see that. And then I'd like to see a faster player in that eye of follow spot. Like, you know, like one guy, one guy that I think would be an interesting option for them, just because he's got a lot of different, like utility up and down the lineup would be like, if you could make the eye a follow spot in a pew suitor, right? Who's like 1.6 can play upline up for you as high as the first line on wing.

Can be an answer if you want to see what he looks like at center in the Nemesnikov spot. And is like a much more efficient shooter too, right? So like I'm talking about that space and creativity that those guys provide. It's like him in the slot finishing a lot of those looks is all of a sudden actually pretty interesting. Yeah. So like that, but that's the type of thing. I'd like to see them add, you know, like a Swiss Army knife style.

forward with some speed and ideally a little bit of juice and a faster defender just to be options just to be options and that I follow 4 million just feels like the most obvious reallocation like he should be on every trade board not because they want to trade him but because there's an interesting allocation argument for them to consider between now and the deadline we're going to get out of here we're running along I do want to we finally got a resolution to uh the most hilarious bit on the PDO cast this year, which is the Brennan Saad conversations. Oh, right. After he essentially gave back or gave away the 3.625 that the Blues owe him next year to have

his contract terminated after he was waived and cleared, and he winds up signing with the Golden Knights, a man who's foreshicking you described as gentle, which infuriated you? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I've covered this Vancouver Canucks team all season. he's been the most checked out player I've seen all year. Like, that should be an indictment. But it's both, you know, because, and I brought this up to you at the time.

I was like, on the one hand, I was offended watching it happen. On the other, I was like, but this would maybe make me more interested in Brandon Sod if I was a contender. Because it wasn't a physical thing. It was clearly mental. Yeah, because I can look at the entire body of work from this season and just say, well, that's not who he is. I don't know who he is because I haven't seen it. But I know he's not that. I know he's not that because that was just like, I've never seen a player run empty on will.

Like, you know that Seinfeld episode where they see how far they can drive a car? Like lights on, flashing, like the needle might as well have broken the entire dashboard. It was just completely empty in terms of his, you know, give an F. Zero F's is the answer. I like him. I like him in Vegas. If he's dialed in, I think he's going to be a really. helpful addition to this team that's, you know, really cobbling it together on the wing

and I think has another pretty intriguing lottery ticket in that effort. Yeah, he's got such a different skill set than pretty much every winger they have other than obviously the top line guys in Barbershevin Stone. A lot of Brennan saw it his best. Actually, I think, fits stylistically quite well with what the knights want to do. Yep. Which is create chaos and then counter off of it. And that's kind of where he's been at his best historically. So I think it makes a lot of sense, especially as like a free ticket to be like playing with someone like Nicola or something. I can definitely envision him turning back the clock and having a lot of success there. But I just, we had to at least bring it up because.

And more than anything, because he was being considered to Edmonton, right? Right. Or that rumored to Edmonton. So I saw the, you know, always rigorous oilogosphere like going through his data from this season and parsing it to see what utility. And I just, I didn't want to like do it on Twitter. I was just like, don't look at any of it. Don't look. Nothing he's done this season tells you a lick about anything.

He's going to be a totally different player in Vegas, I'd expect. And I'm sure Vegas is counting on that. They are. I mean, the context is obviously not something Twitter thrives in. I was going to bring this up when we were talking about the Jets, right? But every time I compliment Connor Hallibuck, which I know is a bold take. Yeah, he's good. But it's citing how ridiculous a lot of his metrics are this year.

you get a lot of pushback of like, but what about the playoffs, right? And it's like, all right, well, two years ago, just getting outclassed by a much better team in that 22 Golden Ice team. And then last year, if you watch that, obviously the numbers were ugly. But what Colorado did to Winnipeg offensively was just, like, it was just a shooting gallery of grade A after grade A off the rush. And I was like, all right, I get it. If you're going to be the best goalie in the world, which he has been, you'd like to see a few more saves,

but also like pinning what happened there on him is just really missing the force for the trees. Yeah. And so I just want to want her to point out, if we're having our rants about Twitter looking at numbers without like examining why they happened, Brennan Sott is obviously great A here in terms of what happened there. Yeah.

I mean, I've got lots of thoughts on can the goalie get it done in the playoffs narratives across the board, right? Like one problem with being the goalie who always elevates the floor of your team is that your team is always going to get to their ceiling. You know what I mean? And sometimes when they hit that game that they actually, or they bump into that opponent that they actually can't hang with.

It looks ugly for the goaltender who is the only reason that they're there. I think that's a cognitive bias that we often fall into. But in Hullabuck's case in particular, just show me what it looks like when he gets into the playoffs and isn't playing game 70 when the Jets are dealing with their first opportunity to have their season end. Like that's all I want to see. I just want to see them take it easy with him, keep him rested, because I think that's a big part of this story is he's always playing game 69 through 73,

you know, come playoff time and starts to take bullets. And it's like, maybe he's been overworked. Yep. All right, Tom, we've got to get out of here. You got anything a blog? You've obviously been very busy with the Canucks being after themselves. If you want to read five different things about the J.T. Miller trade, check out the athletics coverage of the entire, I guess,

two-part three-team deal. and of course Conucks Talk we'll have some we'll have some fun takes I'm sure over the course of this week at Connects talk across the SportsNet

podcast network All right buddy good stuff join the PDOCS Discord you can join and get involved in the conversation I think maybe we obviously we talked about the Brendan Sada whatever six weeks ago

two months ago in the show But that happened Oh I'm ignoring that But the Discord loved it and so you can get a part of the conversation there and get all the behind-the-scenes stuff that we talk about in the show. That's all for another edition of the Sunday special.

Thank you for listening to us, and we'll be back soon with plenty more of the Hockey-PedioCast streaming on the SportsNet Radio Network.