The Hockey PDOcast - What does the future hold for San Jose? Erik Karlsson? Timo Meier?

Episode Date: November 29, 2022

Sheng Peng returns to the Hockey PDOcast with Dimitri Filipovic to dive back in on the San Jose Sharks and the seasons of  Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Filippovich. And joined Amy on today's episode as my buddy Shang Pang. Shang, what's going on, man? Oh, pretty good, pretty good. Yeah, I just got into a monster to all yesterday.

Thinking about the bagels and the smoked meat, I'm going to get some today after morning skate. Oh, nice. La Belle Provence. Have you had, are you going to get some protein as well? I actually had it last night. Nice. Hitting all the cliches. There you go.

You're a hockey journalist pro. You've been on the road a few times. You know what you do. All right, man. Well, this is exciting. We're going to do a San Jose sharks deep dive through the lens, especially of the individual season, Eric Carlson's having because I think it's something that a lot of fans,

even beyond sharks fans, have been captivated by us so far because it's been such a thrilling experience to see him putting up the point totals that we've kind of become accustomed to during his prime and kind of looking like that vintage verse. of himself so far this season. So I'm excited to just unpack that performance with you and deep dive, kind of how he's been able to do it, what he's been doing, because you've been covering this team as closely as anyone so far this season.

And I don't know, I'm kind of curious for your thoughts on, on whether it's overblown how much he looks like his prime self. Because, you know, I think last year he didn't have the point totals, but if you look at a lot of the underlying metrics, they were not too far off from the way he's driving offense so far this season. The puck was just going into the net less free. for himself and his teammates, but he clearly, I feel like to me, to my eye, at least, looks like his old, old self again.

Yeah, no, I don't think it's overblown at all. Eric's been terrific this year, though I will add, and you mentioned it, that last year, he actually was very, very good, too, especially in the beginning of the season. Before he had his forearm surgery in January, he had 26 points in the first 33 games of the season. So, again, not quite what he's doing right now, but those are pretty good. Those are Eric Carlson-like numbers, too. And when he came back, though, from his surgery, I think that the team was far out of the playoffs.

You know, I think his engagement can wax and wane with what the team is. And so I think that's part of what happened at the end there. But he was quite good last year too. Yeah, I mean, yeah, a lot of the, I had my pal J. Fresh on last week, and he made this point of how a lot of the offensive metrics last year, if you look at them, what they were generating in terms of shots, chances, expected goals were pretty in line with so far this season. Now, 12% of the team's shots are going in when he's on the, and I think 15 or 16% of his own shots are going in. So that'll certainly make someone look better and pad the point totals.

But I mean, listen, he's currently on an 82 game pace of 38 goals and 72 assists. He is 25 on 5 points are tied for the league lead with Sidney Crosby. It's remarkable what he's doing. I think you made a great note of this in a recent sort of piece you wrote about how you watch Eric Carlson and how analytics have helped you appreciate kind of what he's doing. I think what you're seeing that looks much more like primary Carlson is how aggressively and evolved he is in the offensive zone, where especially from his own shot attempts, which isn't something necessarily that we talk about glowingly for defensemen because

for most defensemen, it's kind of a suboptimal point shot. You generally want to get it to your forwards deeper in the zone. Carlson himself has been so involved in terms of his own shot volume. And that looks much more like the prime version of himself after a few sort of down years the past couple years. Yeah, absolutely. I think with Eric, too, you know, it's, uh, Eric is smart in terms of a lot of his shots or as counted as shot attempts or shot

passes and, and you can see that. You know, he's often looking for that stick that's kind of there in front of the net looking for that deflection. And so I think that's what kind of pads the totals too. And it's a good mark of just sort of his, uh, just sort of his dominance. Yeah, well,

there was an interesting nugget that I found where in his past 15 games this season, he's top 10 plus shots in five of those. And if you look back over the past three years prior to this one, he had done it seven times in his previous 158 games. So I think for him, it does show a bit of a, it's a bit of a barometer for kind of how often he has the puck on a stick in the offensive zone, how involved he is in creating for this team. And if you kind of segmented down into even specific shot types, whether it's high

danger chances, rush shots, rebounds created on natural statured, he's amongst the top five amongst all defensemen for this team. I'm kind of curious for your take on the interplay over the years between him and Brent Burns and having two sort of alphas who like to have the puck on their stick on the same team. Now, you know, they didn't necessarily play much together at five on five. But I've seen that point to too a lot as a reason for this uptick in production for Carlson. Do you think there's any merit to that? Or do you think it's totally unrelated because like the usage isn't that far off from where it was last year for him?

Yeah, no, I think that narrative is a little overblown. I mean, there's some truth to it. But, okay, so we talk about 2018-19, right? And Brett Burns was a Norris finalist that year. In a December, January, stretch for Eric Carlson, when he was healthy, he was one of the best defensemen in the league. We talk about the shot volume in 2018-19-for Carlson, which was as high in 2018-19 as it is now.

And so I think that they both could coexist together. But I think there are some subtleties where, yes, I think Carlson has flourished without Burns. I think number one on a power play, before on the power play, they would have to split, you know, split time because they didn't necessarily, one thing is they never really mesh too well on a power play together. You know, I think when the sharks traded for Carlson, it seemed like, oh, yeah, you can use Brett Burns and his shot at one-timer.

You know, they try to use Brent Burns and old vetchkin kind of role, but I don't know if Brett Burns ever found comforted, kind of sliding up and down, up and down the, the left side like Leveshkin has. And so that never quite, quite work. And so basically what would happen is they would usually split power play units. But the sharks in 2018-19, their second power play unit was Evander Kane, Gustav Nijtcquist, Joe Thornton, still a very good Joe Thornton back then.

Whereas when we get into the later, you know, the last couple of years with the sharks, the second power play units were nowhere as talented. You know, the sharks were very, very top heavy, obviously the last couple of years. And so whoever got to play with the top power of the unit, obviously was playing with clearly, you know, more skilled players. And so this year, though, there is no such kind of a problem with that. You know, Eric Carlson is a clear P.P.1. There's no switching back and forth between Burns, you know, who's fresh or who's not, you know, that sort of thing, right? Burns, I'm sorry, Carlson gets all the shifts with the top power play unit.

Also, too, Carlson gets all the sort of the priority offensive shifts, you know, be at end of the game, that sort of thing. Now, they would usually kind of put them together at 515, you know, at the end of periods or whatnot the last couple of years. But again, you know, it all revolves around Carlson. And so there are some ways that, yes, I think that Carlson, you know, that Carlson is excelling being sort of the key alpha dog. But again, let's remember that 2018, 19, they were both together and they were both terrific that year. Yeah, yeah, it's about the situation as much as anything. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. I did notice that, you know, his power play usage is relatively similar to what it was last year for Carlson,

but he's being used significantly more at 5-1-5, where he's playing over 20 minutes a night there now. And he's up to 25, 15 across all situations, which is the most he's played since actually his last senator's season. He's never played this much for the shark. So I think there is an element of that as well. It's a slightly concerning to me for a player who has as many miles in injury history as he does. And he's, what, 32 now that they're leaning on him to this degree. but I mean he certainly so far through the first 25 games or so hasn't shown any any signs of it being too much of a workload for him to handle. Well, yeah, it's very, very, very concerning, especially with Eric's injury history.

But, you know, who is their second option on a power play in offensive situations? You know, right now it's, you know, Mario Ferraro who is, you know, I think playing over his head in an area. It should be maybe Ryan Merckley, but Ryan Murkley can't play himself out of the H.L. And so in the past, it would have been Brent Burns, of course, but of course Burns is gone. You know, I wanted to underscore that point about the power play units too, though, that, you know, look at the charts. You know, the top part play unit right now is Carlson with Hurtle, Couture, Meyer, Barabonoff. You know, it's a pretty good PP1. But then her PP2 is CUNIN, Bonino, LeBank.

It's a drop off, so to put it kindly. Yes, yeah. I think you listing those names said it all, saying. I don't think we needed to describe the difference. Yeah. I mean, you know, another slightly amazing stat for Carlson that's kind of discouraging for the sharks, I'd say, as a whole. And that's sort of the overarching theme of a lot of this is they have 55-on-five goals so

far this year as a team. He's been on the ice, or he's a point on 20 of them. He's been on the ice for 33 of them. They're up 33 to 28 with him. They're down 37-17 without him. and the most amazing stat of all for me is they have 71 all situations goals as a team so far this year and he's been on the ice for 50 of them now you mention how they're using them in situationally especially in all of those higher leverage scoring opportunities so you know of course that's

baked into it as well but i mean it's still mind boggling to think about the fact that the shark's team in 860 all situations minutes without eric carlson this season has managed to kind of cobble together 18 total goals scored. I mean, that's a, that's a mind-boggling stat to me. Yeah, no, it sure is. And so, I mean, I would say that the sharks are definitely, you know, going back to the Carlson Burns thing, the way weaker without Burns. I mean, yes, you know, Carlson, again, you know, you know, is benefiting a little bit from sort of the priority he gets, you know, without burns around. But the sharks really need a kind of a all-around number two defender. And they traded that that sort of that number two defender away in burns burns burns you know wanted to go to

carolina of course they would have kept burns that burns wanted to stay and so i think that uh i think the team is definitely the the the weaker for it even if carlson's like point totals may be a little less gaudy without burns around but the team would be better if they were both still here and both playing at a high level yeah okay well let's stick let's stick with carlson um so i was mentioning kind of to my eye how this is the best he's looked in a long time. You know, I think where that extra, it feels like he has an extra jump in a step so far this season, at least at the start of the year. I'm not sure how much of that was, you know, him just finally being healthy, how much of it

was having a good offseason of training and just kind of actually being in a really good shape physically heading into the season. But for me, where it's really manifested is seeing how on the breakout he's back to all of a sudden being that kind of cheat code in transition, right? where the F1 attacks him on the forecheck and he's able to beat that guy on the breakout and then push the puck up the ice and actually enter the offensive zone himself. And you can see that I think other teams are acknowledging that he's kind of back to where he was because they're giving him that respect of you see him enter the zone and the defenders

just back off immediately because they're actually worried about him beating them either out wide or through the middle with his speed, which he's done a couple of times so far this season when they've kind of not sagged off. And so that's all of a sudden making life so much easier for all of his teammates, where that's affording them extra room all of a sudden. You can come into the zone, pass it off. And then someone has this kind of new, newfound breathing room to make a play themselves.

So for me, where I've really noticed that physical difference for him is in that transition element and in pushing defenders back. And I think the rest of the league is noticed as well based on the way they're treating them. Yeah, yeah. I think we could start to see it last year, too. You know, last year before opening night, Eric Carlson said, you know, we talked to him, I think before the morning skate. He said, I still think I'm one of the best players in the world.

You know, that quote by Carlson, you know, made headlines and a lot of Twitter. You'll never believe it, but the hockey world didn't like it. Yeah, a lot of memes, a lot of jokes, you know. And we, you know, honestly, from what we had seen the previous two seasons, you know, 2020, 21 to COVID season. And he had 22 points in 52 games. He actually was pretty healthy that year. But he was, you know, that's the, that's the worst that I've seen from an on a night to night basis from Eric Carlson.

And I do think that that year, you know, they started the, the, the sharks started the season in Scottsdale, 45 days in Scottsdale, I think, because San Jose, Santa Clara County wouldn't let the sharks practice or play in San Jose because of, because of COVID. Was I think it was, you know, you know, it sounds like we're making excuses for her, think it was tough for him. It was tough for the sharks and all the players. And so I think that going into 2021, 22, he had kind of a regular summer of training. And I think last season, just for example, just some of the sport logic stats, you know,

like I think he had about four times the zone controlled zone exits at five on five, four times more than any other defensemen on the sharks, including Burns. And, you know, he was already kind of showing that ability to kind of skate and escape. and lead a rush. And that's carried over into this season. Again, yeah, you do definitely see that kind of respect. I think people are sort of aware of Carlson's just how important he is to the sharks and also too, just what he can do to you if you kind of overcommit to him on a portrait.

Yeah, I mean, this was on a power play, I should say, so they were already an advantage. But there was a recent game I remember very vividly in Seattle, I believe, where he kind of skated it into the zone on an entry, and the defenders, you know, they didn't necessarily sag back. They were sort of caught in Nomad's line where they didn't really know what to do, or maybe they didn't even realize that it was Carlson rushing the puck up the ice. And so they froze for a second there. And he noticed that and he capitalized and he pounced.

And he just kind of split the middle and basically went in all alone. And it was a really interesting play because he almost like, he seemed caught off guard himself because he skated it in and he expected to stop. and pass it off to someone, but then he noticed that they were kind of off balance and he just went and attacked. And that explosion through the middle, I was like,

wow, that was very impressive. And that was something that I have to admit, I personally didn't see much of last year, but it's really cool to see him kind of doing that all over again and actually kind of, you know, striking the fear of being embarrassed in that fashion the way he used to,

right? Like, when people talk about that sort of, that swagger or whatever you want to identify it as, I think it is there. because when I think of Eric Carlson and Ottawa during his prime, like he played with that with that confidence, right? Where he wanted to try and embarrass you

and put you on an end one highlight reel, right? And the past couple years in San Jose, he's been successful and effective, but I think it's been much more sort of through craftiness and guile and picking his spots as opposed to just what he's doing now. And so for me, regardless of the results, it's just kind of cool to see that process back there for him again. Yeah, actually,

the last game the sharks played against Vancouver. I think actually on the NHL Twitter, they highlighted it, even though it didn't even lead to any goal. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think it was Sheldon Drys that was made to look to full. Sheldon Dreys tried to attack Carlson at the point. And Carlson just basically Harlem Globetrotters his way through him and created basically off of that.

You know, we talk about, I wrote an article a few games ago, about just Carlson and analytics and how Carlson kind of, you know, got me into watching the game more carefully. And you talk about why is Carlson so, you know, his shot attempts, his, his analytics, why are they always so strong, right?

You look at a play like that, what he did to dry is there. He basically created space that led to four, I think four shots by the sharks there. And that's off of one move at the top that, you know, embarrassed, you know, embarrassed drives. But basically they left him in a dust. us and created an outnumbered situation. And just, you know, Carlson and the sharks started pounding shots on Vancouver right

there. And just, yeah, that was a fun sequence to watch in person. Well, it's always funny because when he does stuff like that, he did earlier in the year at Dallas as well, where he kind of put it through the legs of Tyler Sagan and then another defender, I believe, and created space for himself in the offensive zone. And you always get a certain segment of fans to push back on that and are like, oh, well, that's a very risky play because if he turns it over, he's the last man back. and that's going to be a breakaway for the other team, right?

And I mean, that's obviously such a poor way to think about it because it's like, oh, what's the worst thing that can happen here as opposed to a highly skilled creative player doing what he does best and what makes him so special. But I think it hits the nail on the head there where, yeah, that confidence that he's playing with in terms of acknowledging the risk and still doing it anyways and pulling it off

is what makes him Eric Carlson. And so seeing him doing that is a highly rewarding viewing experience. Yeah, no, it is. He's definitely playing the game faster than everybody else right now. And I think, you know, if we compare to the last few years, especially 2021, 2019, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, just, you know, he would try the same kind of plays. You know, he's always had the same kind of mentality, confidence, and swagger, even in those years where he wasn't as good as he is this year.

I mean, again, you know, I talked about what he said before opening night last year, you know, like, you know, that, that's, that's a confident man. I don't think Eric Carlson is ever lacking for swagger. But those kind of plays, though, would not, you know, he may not be able to execute those plays as regularly. He might execute those plays, those high, high-end plays, maybe six, seven times out of 10 in those years that he maybe struggled a little bit, right? And so those three times that he doesn't, three times out of 10 that he doesn't succeed,

then it goes back to the other way. It's an ugly chance, et cetera, et cetera. And no one is saying that Eric Carlson this year is a perfect player. You know, we're always talking about overall impact of a player, not just, you know, taking like one shift at a time where he makes a mistake or one shift where he makes a great play. But, you know, this year, though, I would say that the overall impact, he tries things like that. You know, maybe now we're closer to like nine out of ten times that's working. Yeah.

Yeah. No, I think certainly, I think where else, and that's a great point. I want to build off of that in a second here. But one final point on kind of his explosiveness that I've noticed in the offensive zone and that piece you referenced there yourself that you wrote up, you had a couple interesting stats that I thought in there from support logic. One was that he's leading the Sharks team with 2.3 passes to the slot per game so far this season. And two was that he's the second amongst defensemen in the league at 4.8 offense generating plays per game at 515, which are plays

leading to scoring chances. And where you see that explosiveness in the offensive zone is his kind of ability to make someone a miss, right? There was a play you highlighted, um, where he kind of, I forget, I think I was maybe against Florida or someone recently where he gets the puck along the wall, or it was against Auto, actually. He was a puck against the wall. And he makes the defender coming at a miss. He slides down the wall and he buys himself time and space and then gets the puck into the slot for a chance for Jonah Gajovic to tap it in. And it didn't result in a goal, but you see stuff like that, his ability to not only move down the wall, but move into the middle of the ice to improve his angle that makes him so good. and he's been doing that so much more often this season.

And that's a big reason why he's creating such an offensive impact for this team, right? Yeah, absolutely. And I think that part of it, too, is, you know, David Quinn really wants the, the Sharks' defenseman to kind of attack forward in that kind of way. And, of course, it's incumbent on the Sharks forwards, if there is a mistake, the Sharks Forward to cover Carlson there, you know, like a lot of fans will, you know, kind of how, like, what is Carlson doing attacking down there? He's doing what he's good at.

And so it's incumbent on his teammates there to cover for him. If there is a two on one to result from that, a lot of times, it's because, frankly, it's because the forward did not cover for Carlson there. Yeah, well, that is the double-edged sword here, right? I think you also noted in that piece where they've made this shift under David Quinn to playing more zone defense versus man-to-man previously. And they've been better suited for it, especially in these in-zone defending situations.

Now, where you're seeing them really struggle is how much they're conceding in the rush where I know ClearSight Analytics has them as the 30 second ranked team in terms of giving up rush chances per game. And so you're right. Like it takes a team effort. You see when Colorado does it, for example, when Kail McCar goes behind the net in the offensive zone to try to create something with his skating, Nathan McKinnon pops up to the middle of the ice and protects the point in case they turn it over. he can at least be back as kind of the last line of defense and they're not they don't have five skaters below the dots basically and it's tough because you require a full team buy and I think you acquire playing together a long time to know each other's habits and to kind of pick up on when Carlson's going to do that and I think there's been times where it has kind of come back to hurt them and certainly

I mean you look at you know 30 second ranked in terms of rush chances against that's that's not ideal and it's putting a lot of strain on their goalies as well. So you kind of take the good with the bad there, but that's a great point you make there because it hasn't necessarily been all roses either. It's kind of been the full experience so far. Yeah, I mean, they are 17 and 13 and 4 for a reason. Yes, yes, that's true.

And they have the worst safe percentage in the league right now too. So right now, you know, we're going back to the Martin Jones days. Yeah, although I will say, I mean, yeah, so yeah, yeah, the 32nd in both 5-on-5 in all situations, save percentage. You know, James Driver in particular, who's hurt right now, has a 903. I think the public models still have them with a net positive goal save above expected, which for a goalie with a 903 save percentage is not something you see very often.

And honestly, in my opinion, I haven't looked at the private models for this. I think that might be underselling it too, because I think the quality of the rush chances they're giving up in some of these sequences is probably not being properly accounted for on like natural staturec or evolving hockey where when they're in these slow it down defensive zone sequences, they're doing a really good job of protecting the slot, right? So where they're giving up shots

from a location perspective, it kind of comes across for the model as, oh, well, you know, that was good defense. They didn't give up much. But then the one rush chance they give up when one of these offensive zone sequences gets blown up is so detrimental and so hard to save for their goalies that I feel like it's almost not being properly accounted

for how tough of a defensive environment it is for them. Yeah, yeah. And I think we can't say, I mean, I brought up Martin Jones in sort of a pejorative sense. But in fairness, too, Martin, you know, look at what he's doing in Seattle now. You know, goaltending is always kind of hard to predict. And the shirts have been putting their goaltenders in bad environments since, well, since 2019, 20, 20, really. And so any goalie that's performed a little bit above average, really, you know, Well, it's a bit of a joke, and I'm not saying that James Reimer should be an

Vezna consideration, but definitely, though, to, you know, I think Arundel had a decentest season in 2019-22, and Reimer had a pretty good season in the last year, too. Like, if you're able to get this Sharks team and, you know, and have a safe percentage over 90% as a Sharks goalie, that's actually an achievement. Yeah, natural statrick has them as giving up the ninth fewest high danger chances against and the 17th fewest expected goals against. that doesn't really seem right to me. I think they've been a bit worse defensively than that.

Well, yeah, we're talking about now, you know, the in-zone defending, which is better this year. And, you know, if we talk about in-zone defending, you know, what have the sharks been actually really good at the last three, four years? It's actually the PK. I think if you do a cumulative PK, I think they're first, they're better tops in the league right now, last year they were second. If you did a cumulative penalty kill from 2019-20, I think they would be the best in the league or maybe second best in a league to Carolina or Boston.

They're up there, right? And so that kind of doesn't make sense, of course. How can a team that is so bad defensively at five on five be so good on a PK? But you think about what you're doing on the PK, and it's a lot of the in-zone defending sort of that, you know, that half-eyes defending or in-zone, you know, strictly. Yes, yeah. The sharks are showing that they're good at it, you know.

And I think maybe that's what a zone defense works for them too, because it kind of replicates, I think, in some way, some of the some of the what you do on a pk whereas when they're on the move when they make these mistakes right and they do have uh you know players high risk players at times and carlson burns over the years right um then it can get a little hairy and ugly because then they can't get set defensively yeah yeah it can although i will say if you're going to lose games i much prefer the style they're playing now and how aggressive it can be to the alternative right and i think imagine for you as well covering all these games. Yes. Yeah. It's, it's, you know, there's going to be some

moments where you want to pull your hair out, certainly. But I think watching Carlson just attack at every opportunity and sprint up the ice and make plays up the ice, even if it, if it costs them sometimes defensively, you know, whatever. I guess maybe it's easy for me to say here from the outside as just someone who's looking for entertainment value. But that's honestly the way I view the sharks this season. No, I think, I think you're right. I mean, look, it's really about like, you talk about like, even though the record isn't, isn't great for the sharks, what is the shark's best chance to win, right? And their best chance to win, I think, is to lean on Eric Carlson and his strengths. And so then that becomes, and not to blame everybody else, but then it becomes incumbent on the

rest of the team to try to cover up the strengths. And right now, I would say that a lot of it is, is the goaltoning. You know, Reimer has played well overall this season, but before he got hurt, he had a couple of rough games there where, you know, I think goals that he would want back, you know, sort of the, the long shots, that have nothing to do with, with the rush chances or whatever. And Kackinen, who they, you know, they put a lot of hopes on. They, you know, they traded Jake Milton for him last trade deadline. They gave him a two-year deal in the offseason. And I think they were hoping that he would sort of become like that one-a goalie for San Jose.

And he has not been very good this year. And this is not just the environment. Yes, you know, it would help with the sharks to disson that for him, you know. But, you know, there's also been a lot of kind of long shots, soft goals. that sort of think sort of the backbreaking goals that he's given up. And so I think that if they can get, you know, I think I think that they have created an environment in terms of just their in-zone defending that should get them, should net them league averages scolding.

That's my opinion for this year. You know, I think Martin Jones had to deal with the worst in-zone defense and a lot of things worse in some of those bad years. But I think the last couple of years, really, I think Bob Buegner and David Quinn this year have done a reasonable job of creating at least a league average-ish environment for these guys. Yeah.

Well, I remember after the first, what was it, five or six games where they had like eight goals total scored in them. And it was like, wow, this is going to be a very, very long year. So at the very least, seeing what they've been able to do offensively has been a nice, pleasant surprise. Shang, we're going to take a quick break. here. And then when we come back, we're to keep talking about a variety of sharks topics. So looking forward to that. We'll be back here in a minute. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.

cast on the SportsNet Radio Network. We're back here on the Hockey PEO cast with my guest, Shen Ping today, we've talked a lot about Eric Carlson. We've talked about the changes under David Quinn. We've talked about the defensive system and all that. I think it's about it's a long past time. We talk about Timel Meyer here, who somehow I don't think we've mentioned yet. And I think that's a topic of interest for a lot of fans. And he himself is, having a ridiculous season so far, right? Especially of late, his performance. He's on pace for 41 goals. Ten of his eight assists are of the primary variety. His shot volume, we were mentioning what Carlson's doing is just obscene. He leads the league with 120 shots on goal, which is on pace for 410.

He has 214 shot attempts, which is at 730 shot attempt pace, which also leads the league. And I believe only Chris Kreider, Brady Kachuk, Zach Hyman, and John Tavares, four. very traditional kind of net front guys have more high danger shot attempts than him so far, high danger chances. And he gets them in a much more diverse variety of ways than those guys do. He also a nice and all net positive for them so far this year, considering how pretty solid their power play, especially top unit has been. He's drawn 11 penalties. He's only taken two, which has been a nice little addition to his game as well. So you look at all of that. And he is having himself one heck of a season so far.

Yeah, you know, I think he's still massively underrated nationally. Part of it, you know, due to his own, you know, he's, you know, Timo, you know, 2018, 19, he broke out, he had 30 goals. Everyone assumed the next year, you know, logical step he would, you know, take over for, you know, Joe Pavellski left that summer, you know, Joe Thornton, the next year would, would leave, you know, but basically that Tim O'Mire would sort of, you know, take the torch from these guys and, and be the thing. based of the sharks and he didn't do it in 2019,

20, 20, 20, 21. It was awful, really, that, that season. And so really, like, he was kind of at a crossroads. You know, I think that summer after the 2021 season, I think fans would have traded him, you know, for, you know, for a second round draft pick, you know, get the contract off the books or whatever, you know. And he came back last season, though,

and, you know, reminded of just how good he can be. And he's done that again. year. And so anyway, though, on the national side, though, you know, like, I, I, I, you know, it's a, it's a big, big talk in, in, in, and, uh, in, and, uh, sharks nation or sharks line, uh, you know, uh, daily face off had their, you know, their, they're, they're, sort of their monthly trade targets article. And a Meyer was, uh, I think sixth on that list. And they talked about how, you know, Meyer would, would, would, uh, had a lot less value than Alex DeBrinkechit.

What? And, and, you know, fans were howling about that. And yeah, I, you know, I haven't written about it yet, but I think Meyer is a better player than the brinket. Now, the brinket has more consistency. So again, that's on Meyer for a couple of those lost seasons there, right? But you see sort of just, you know, if you watch

team on a night-to-night basis, but again, you mentioned some of the stats that just stand out, just how much of the shots share he commands for the sharks, basically, you know, I mean, if you use like that NBA term, right? You know, Timo Myers a player that can create his own shot at will. That is a real skill.

And not, I don't think you can say that about every, you know, a lot of even the top fours in the league, their ability to kind of create their own shot. Oh, yeah. Especially like legitimate chances too, right? He's consistently been one of those players that's kind of living around that high danger area and, and leads the league in that category. Yeah, I mean, he, that's a, I didn't even know that that statement was made on that list. That's preposterous.

He is, uh, his value is, is significant. Now, you know, we can talk more here in a bit about what a trade would look like and kind of what that would command. I think, you know, not that this differentiates him from DeBrienka because he's just in a similar spot, but I imagine whatever team would be paying a premium for him would require some sort of insurance that it would come with a long-term deal. But I have one more stat here for you to show the value of Meyer. And let's loop in his running mate Tomaj hurdle in this as well. So since the start of last year at 5-1-5, the sharks have played 900. five on five minutes with Tomah Tertl and Timel Meyer on the ice, they're up 59 to 40, so plus 19 in those minutes.

In 3,000, five on five minutes without the two of them on the ice, they're down 151 to 88, which is just, yeah, it is a wild. So, you know, to say that they are the sharks, Carlson has been great this season, of course, as we talked about over the first half of the show, but they offensively especially up front are the sharks right and so whenever you get into this conversation of what are they going to do with him what are they going to trade them for all this stuff i guess you you really have to reconcile that if you do trade them assuming it's going

to be purely for futures like that is going to create such a tremendous hole and that might not matter because you know even with him playing so well so well so far this season there's seven 13 and four so it's not like it's gotten them that far necessarily but i think it's important to kind of contextualize how important of a of a you know, mainstay he's been for this team this past two seasons. Yeah, and you know, I need to be careful. You know, like when you watch one team every night, you get into an echo chamber, right? And, and, you know, the Meyer has been so dominant,

hey, maybe it's because the sharks are, as you noted, are not very good. And so they need to give them, you know, that they need them to take over that shot here, that sort of thing, right? But the last couple of years, I noticed. with team-low that any line you put him on has immediately become the shark's best offensive line. You know, last year he started a season with Logan Couture and Jonathan Dullin. And, you know, that that was through the first month, the shark's best line. You know, Jonathan Dallan, people were talking about him being a call their candidate.

And once they took Timo off that line, you know, both Logan, Coutor's numbers and Jonathan Dullin's numbers fell. In Cotor's defense, you know, basically if you take Meyer away from him, The sharks have a lot of sort of suboptimal offensive wingers to put, you know, to do place with, with a Couture. But anyway, though, um, Myers is the kind of guy that I believe, and again, this is the echo chamber part. Maybe I'll be proven wrong if you put them on a different team, but you put them on whatever line you put them on, you give them a semi-competent center. And that's going to be a legit top six scoring line. And I, again, that's not something that I think you can say about a lot of players in this league.

It's just sort of the variety of skills that Timo has in terms of just carrying the puck up from one end to the other and creating space. You know, obviously when he's creating a shot for himself, and just like Eric Carlson, he's not just creating space for himself. If the defense is focused on, that team O'Mire, that creates space for everybody else. And so, again, you know, there aren't a lot of players that, again, you put them on on a line, then you have an instant, you know, kind of an instant offense line. And so I'm actually curious to see, I obviously, like watching Timo and I like dealing with Timo so I would love for him to stay with it on the sharks but I would be curious to see though if he has that same kind of effect you know in another city yeah I mean I don't view his like the the shot workload or how big of a share

he accounts for as a negative in terms of like oh he's hogging the buck or this makes his team worse right because not only is he scoring a lot of goals but I believe also natural stagric has him like leading the league in rebounds created as well so far this season And so being able to get the shots from where he does leads to additional opportunities for others that are just aren't good enough or aren't capable to create those chances for themselves. And so I'm totally with you. I think he has such a malleable skill set. We've seen him be able to thrive in a number of different situations in terms of playing style and teammates he plays with and their own tendencies that if you want to get him on a more kind of grinded out line where you get the puck down low and cycle it up and have him pop into the slot for those looks, I think he can throw. drive in that. If you want to play a bit more of an uptempo North South style with him carrying

the puck up the ice, he can do that as well. And I think that's so valuable for a player where you can insert him and he can do those, he can regardless of his situation, he doesn't necessarily need to be put in a position to succeed because he's going to thrive no matter what. I think that is a rare quality. I don't think you should be underselling how valuable that is. I get what you're saying from the perspective of UCM every night. So maybe you just appreciate him more. But I watch the entire league. And I can tell you for a fact that that that skill set is pretty hard to come by. Well, that's, yeah, that's, that's good of hearing that in that way. Yeah, no, it's been one of the, I guess, the underrated, I guess, uh, pleasures of being a shark speed rider the last couple

years to kind of see his maturation. And we've seen the sharks record the last couple years. It's, it's not that pleasurable to watch this team on a night to my night basis overall. Let's be honest. But, uh, you know, Timo, you know, going into again, last year, he's coming off a very disappointing 2021. People, you know, really had. no idea what the make of him. Like, you know, was he a legit top six player? Was he kind of a bust, you know, guy that just had one great season and just coasting off of that or whatever, right? And early in the season, though, they figured out how good he was and just how, you know, like, just what, you know, just sort of the step he had taken, you know, Bob Boehner and his staff, right?

And I wrote about this last year. When he think about the sharks in their offense, you know, we talked a lot about Brett Burturns, right? And he, you know, cast such a lot of a large shadow over the sharks, you know, from, you know, the time from 2015, 16 on, basically. In the Pete DeBoer era, Brent Burns, you know, look at just shot share, just how many power play shot attempts he would take of the offense, how many shot attempts that he would take five on five, right? You know, he was putting up numbers, you know, league leading in terms of shot share, and especially for a defenseman, that's crazy.

And so basically, in the Pete DeBoar era, you know, to say that Brent Burns was the fulcrum of the Sharks' offense is not an exaggeration because he was. You know, everything ran through Burns, basically. And it flourished, you know, flourished under Pete DeBore. You know, it was a Stanley Cup final appearance. There was a Western Conference finals appearance on top of that. Brent Burns was anores finalist, I think, three times. We'll want it once.

And a finalist, I think, two other times in the DeBore era. Yep. So anyway, they fired DeBore. You know, Burns gets older. that happens, right? And so what happened? So last year, Meyer basically becomes the same quorum of the shark's offense that Burns was. And you look at the same, the shot attempt share on the power play, the shot attempts share at 5-1-5, they matched what what Burns was doing in the DeBore era. And so that's an intentional thing. That's, I think, at a point where

Bob Boehner and the staff realized just what they had with Timo Meyer. And he wasn't giving that, you know, to them in the previous years. But last year they saw early on that, you know, this, this, this, this, this is a guy that we can run our basically our entire offense around whenever he's on an ice. And that's, that's, that's, that's what they did last year. And this year, you know, with Carlson's kind of reemergence or emergence again or whatever, right? It's, you know, made for really a devastating kind of one-two combo for the sharks. It has. And I guess the natural sort of segue or question off of this then is what do you do with them?

right? Because he turns 27 before the start of next season. I think when he took that four-year, $24 million deal in the summer of 2019 that you alluded to, which, by the way, was received with much to the chagrin of a lot of people in the league who were upset that that deal happened at the time. The rationale, I think, for him was, listen, you take a bit less now, help this Sharks team that was just coming off of a Western Conference bid, keep most of their players together, and try to be competitive for the next. couple years. Now, that obviously hasn't worked out. They haven't sniffed the playoffs since. And part of the rationale combined off of that was there's this $10 million qualifying offer, which got grandfathered in and doesn't really work the same way anymore that would give him

significant leverage to get whatever he wants financially and contractually this summer. And so I think that is a massive monkey wrench in all of this, right? Where based on the contract he's been playing on, now you mentioned the first couple of years, it looked like he wasn't going to find that for him. Based on the way he's played last year and this year, he's been a significant value and underpaid. And I feel like he probably should be using this as a pivot point or a launching pad for himself to get the biggest possible deal he can

to set himself up for the rest of his life. And so with his value that high, I think it becomes a very tricky situation for the sharks to navigate because he is such a fan favorite. And he is such a good player and the thought of trading him for a bunch of, if sir butts and futures and all that is not the most exciting thing, but you're staring down the barrel of not only a massive contract, but a 7, 13 and 14 this season that hasn't done much the past couple years.

And at that point, it's like, all right, well, what are we really trying to accomplish as an organization here? Right, right. So it's definitely a crossroads kind of moment for my career. You know, the sharks had the same crossroad with Tom Osh Hurdle last year, but it was a different regime. and so they chose to a re-sign hurdle,

extend him the maximum. You know, a lot of people, myself included, you know, as much as I love Tomas-Hurdo, I don't know if that was the best move for the organization as a whole, even though I understand where they're coming from, you know, Tom Hurtle, you know,

his police extend not just on the ice, but off the ice too in terms of leadership, community, all that kind of stuff. He is the kind of guy that you want to be the face of your organization, you know, 24-7, right? But anyway, though, same kind of crossroads with Timo. So, you know, we'll kind of see what they do.

But I have a question for you, actually, you know, as somebody who watches, you know, an entire league, right, more closely than I do. I've always felt that, that Timo deserves to be in the same kind of class where we talk about Matthew Kachuk, right? Same kind of RFA situation, right? And when I wrote about that this past summer, I got a lot of pushback, even from Sharks fans, you know, talk about how, you know, Timo hasn't crossed 40 goals like Matthew Kach has. But, you know, we talked about just the overall player.

I don't know. You tell me, I think that, I think that we're talking, when we talk about Timo, we're talking about him with Matthew Kachuk and not with the Brinket. So that's in my opinion. Yeah, I would say closer to Kachuk than the brinket. I'd say maybe a step or half a step below just because I think the way Kachuk can create kind of below the goal line for others in particular made him such an appealing piece for the Panthers and why they were willing to pay as much as they did for him.

I should also mention, I believe Kachuk is two years younger than Timo. I think that kind of sounds about right, maybe two, two and a half years younger. Oh, okay. Yeah, definitely. Okay, it's a big difference. And so, yeah, I think in terms of, in terms of the contract that he got, basically covers like up until his early 30s, which is great. That's exactly the type of deal that you want to be paying for. Whereas for buyer, it's kicking in when he's 27, right?

So if it goes seven, eight years, all of a sudden, you're getting into some dicey territory on the back half of it. And I think that does need to be factored into the calculus. But yeah, I think a step above to bring cat, and I think, I mean, if he's made publicly available, and I don't think they've really engaged any of these talks necessarily yet, but man, the team is lining up, whether it's the devils, the kings, potentially the hurricanes. I would say the Flames is like, Timo Meyer is the perfect player for a lot of what ails them. Unfortunately, I'm not sure they have the ability to facilitate a trade like that at this point.

But there's going to be any number of teams with legitimate interest and very valuable assets that are going to be lining up if he's made available publicly like that. And so I think it'll be a very interesting trade market. But I think he'll command quite a bit, especially if it comes with a deal in place to keep him wherever he's traded to for the next seven years. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The good truck thing came, you know, because they were part of that same RFA winger class from 2019. right yeah so you know a great class there line a was a part of that one too uh but anyway though yeah i it's i think with timo too i think what works uh for him too is this year he he's quite underpaid at six million dollars so he has a contract that can kind of fit with anybody so as a rental this year

even if you're looking at him that way he's quite valuable and again if you get like like you mentioned sort of those those guarantees or the idea that he wants to stay with you long term and he's a guy that you want to build around if your team that decides that that, then yeah, I think his, I mean, I got to think of, I got to think harder about terms of comparables for, for a team of O'Meier trade, but, you know, we're talking, you know, you know, first round pick, maybe two of them if you get that guarantee he'll stay, you know, and then maybe a good prospect. I don't know. Yeah. Yeah, certainly. I would, I would say definitely. And man, it'll be fun to see him on a team like the Devils, for example, especially with the way

they're playing and they have the assets to do a trade like that. So that would be that'll be really fun. I'm kind of curious for you mentioned this that, you know, they were at a similar crossroads last year with Tomas hurdle and decided to give him $65 million over the next eight years as opposed to, you know, I would have loved to see them trade him, for example, before the Hampus and then home trade to Boston, who desperately needed a second line center at the time and probably essentially could have gotten a very similar package, if not slightly better than what Anaheim wound up netting for him,

which was a significant one. you know Mike Greer wasn't the person that made that decision and it feels like he's kind of come in here with a relatively clean slate in terms of you know he's inherited a lot of contracts from the previous regime but he's not responsible for them and he doesn't necessarily not only has an emotional attachment to them but doesn't necessarily need to need to kind of placate to them like he can he can build this team the way he wants do you think that's going to factor in it all that they already made that decision on hurdle because Once you've committed yourself to a deal like that, now all of a sudden, if you're, if you're keeping him by you're trading Meyer, not that you know, it's a sunk cost in the sense that the contract's already in place, regardless of what you do with Meyer. But it seems like it's like a bit of a one step forward and two steps back. And then all of a sudden you look around and you've got Tomas Hurtle and Eric Carlson and then not really that much else.

And I don't know what you're working with at that point. Yeah, no, you're absolutely right about, you know, if they, you know, they've obviously resigned her already. if they trade Meyer, sort of that one step forward, two steps back. But there's a certain point, though, where the sharks need to sort of cut it out in terms of giving out long-term contracts

that aren't paying off enough. Well, it's not even that, actually. If you look at the sharks' long-term contracts right now, you know, hurdles had a decent season. He could be better. You know, Couture is still a good player. You know, maybe he's not quite up to that value, but he's still a very good player.

Eric Carlson is obviously at the moment, in fulfilling his value right now. Even the market of plastic, you know, much malign over the last couple, a couple of years, and I think fairly so. But he's returned to at least some value

for his contract this season. So it's not even the big contracts right now in a way that are sinking the sharks, but, you know, they didn't build enough below under them to kind of, to kind of keep the kind of keep them competitive or keep them, you know, in the playoff hunt. I think that's part of the problem with the sharks.

But anyway, though, at some point, yeah you need to cut out giving these contracts because you're not getting enough overall value even if you can't point to Carlson's, say it is your fault why we're 713 and 4 you can't point to Cotor or hurdle because individually they're all having decentish seasons but

just overall it's just not it's not working and so and so it's so it's a weird place but Meyer is a little bit younger than hurdle was last year and Meyer is a pretty special player in his own right too. And so I think, I think, yeah, it's going to be very, very kind of telling what career does. It is interesting that, you know, from my understanding of contract

negotiations between the Meyer and Hurdle can't be granted, you know, hurdle was a UFA, so there was sort of more urgency. You had to get something done by the trade deadline or, or, you know, you risk losing hurdle for nothing. Whereas Meyer, you know, Meyer can still, you know, he's an RFA. And so you're not in such a rush with with the Meyer. But there have, you know, the, as far as I understand it, Myers Camp, spoken with Myers-Age and Claude Lemieux. Myers' camp is kind of, and they're fine with this. You know, the Sharks are, I guess, in a point where they're deciding whether or not

Meyer is a guy that they want to commit long-term to. So they haven't even extended, as far as I understand it, a contract offer for a four-team of Meyer at this point. And so it's not one of those things where, you know, last year with and sharks and herd of the sharks made it very clear from you know any any time you'd ask the sharks be it when doug wilson when he was around or joel will when joe will took over its interim GM we want to keep thomas shirdle and it's that message is not as loud and clear from the sharks this time with timo mire again granted uh myr is an rfa so they're not in such a such a rush but yeah so that is kind of an

interesting kind of distinction. So you wonder if my, if my career was a GM last year, whether or not he would have re-up Thomas Schurto? I don't know. But anyway, we'll see with the team. Again,

it's an interesting crossroads for the sharks. Yeah. Yeah, I think you put it best at some point you got to cut it out, right? Like you got to start, you got to start the path. Because I had a mailback question a couple of weeks ago. That was like,

which organizations are the furthest away from being built into a Stanley Cup champion? And it's like, I had the sharks. You had to have the sharks at the top of the list because, because they haven't even really started the rebuild. And they're 31st in the league in point percentage. Like it's kind of crazy to think about, but based on the current roster they have

and the financial commitments they already have in place for the next three, four years, even though those players are playing well or not necessarily huge liabilities financially, they're clearly not good enough to build this into a winning team. And they're still going to be, in theory, depreciating assets as they get into their older into their 30s over these next couple of years.

And so until you actually start that process, it's tough to wrap your head around, them being on the right track. And so at some point, you have to make tough decisions and kind of pull the plug and start that process. And I guess the silver lining or the potentially the good thing working for them in their favor here is that Mike Greer is at UGM and he's stepping in inheriting this stuff as opposed to being responsible for it.

And so I think it's a lot easier for him to justify making those tough decisions. So yeah, I'll be, I'll be very fascinated to see how they handle it. I'm sure we're going to have a lot of chances to discuss it. I'm looking forward to having you back on the show to do just. that shang before we get out of here i'll let you plug some stuff where can people check you out and uh and what are you been working on yeah uh just to find me at a san josea hockey now that's my website i also up here on uh mcc sharks uh mcc sports bay area that the rights holder for the sharks and uh find me at twitter shang underscore paying uh well don't know how long you'll find me on

twitter the way things are going there but you'll be you'll be there forever don't worry about it i hope so all right man well this is a blast i'm glad we got to do this We'll check in with you soon. Thank you to the listeners for listening to the show. If you enjoyed what you heard, go smash that five-star button as a review wherever you listen to the podcast. And we'll be back tomorrow with more here of the HockeyPedio cast on the Sportsnet Radio Network.