The Hockey PDOcast - Why Nashville Is a Team to Watch Right Now, and This Offseason

Episode Date: March 18, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by John Matisz to discuss the run the Predators have been on and why they've become not only one of the most interesting teams to watch right now, but this coming offseason as well. Then they talk about how the Capitals are trying to transition between eras, and the evolution of analytics in hockey. This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Progressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitri Philpovich and joining me to start a fresh week of shows here. It's my good buddy John Mattis, John. What's going on, man? Not a whole lot, Dmitri. Fired up to do yet another episode of the PEDOcast.

I really do enjoy coming on in here. Yes, this is going to be a fun one. We've got a fun list of topics that we're going to run through today. And let's start with the first one on our list, which is the Nashville Predators, the hottest team in the NHL since that embarrassing loss, which was a 9-2 defeat, I believe, to the stars where they were getting out shot like 20 to 1 or something at one point in that game. And, of course, the coaching staff telling the team they weren't allowed to go see you two. They are 12-0-2 with a 57 to 27 goal differential in that time. They've realistically not only locked up a playoff spot essentially for themselves, played their way into the first wildcard slot. that which obviously has a fascinating trickle-down effect of potentially bumping Vegas into

wildcard two and having them be the prize quote unquote for whoever wins the West. But there's a lot of time, Pack here. We obviously talked a lot about the Predators on this show in particular of the season because I've been fascinated with this sort of science experiment they almost had in the offseason where Barry Trots took over, really wanted to change the culture of this team. They made a coaching change. They brought in a bunch of free agents. They really tried to change things up.

and now we're seeing that actually happen on the ice, and it's been really fun to watch, and they're doing it in such a distinct way. And so I just wanted to talk about them with you here to start, because when you go on a run like this, I think you certainly earn yourself a lot of conversation here in the PDOCast. Oh, absolutely. And I think it's pretty obvious now that Andrew Burnett should be in the Jack Adams conversation.

I mean, what a run this has been. And you look at the roster and the lineup he has. to work with here. And if Jack Adams essentially boils down to getting the most out of your team, he's certainly up there with the talkets and the tortillas of the league. And the main thing that's like coming to mind to me right now while they're on this incredible streak is that they're finally playing full Roman Yosi hockey. Like Roman Yosey's been playing a certain way for a really long time.

But he's been playing that way under Barry Trots, Peter Alavio, John Hines. So now he's got a coach that just completely is on the safe wavelength as far as how the team's going to play and how Yose is going to play. Because in the past, like let's say John Hines, I mean, Yosey kind of had the green light to do whatever he wanted because when he is risky, he is such a good skater that he can get back on the back check. And he's certainly not lazy, like the work ethics there. So he sort of had a different mindset or game plan from Heinz than the rest of the team. Whereas Burnett's like, you know what Roman Yossi does? Let's all do that. So it's just, I mean, there's such an active team.

That would be, you know, something that comes to mind as far as descriptors. You know, a lot of stretch passes. They pressure the puck like crazy. You know, it seems like every rush that they have, there's four guys involved. So it's really. snowballing here because a big part of this run is also Yossi's play. I mean, he's, you know, made himself into basically, you know, the straw that stirs Nashville's drink for years.

And now he's kind of got more weight, more support around him to do some special things. So my mind goes to Yosey. I don't know about you, Tim. Well, I think that's a good shout. he certainly deserves a lot of credit because I think during this 14 game run he has 17 points I believe and in particular the last two games he scored a pair of goals against the crack in which moved to be the difference and in that game in Winnipeg which I thought was just a very impressive performance by Nashville where they went into Winnipeg and just really dominated them especially from the second period

on. He was the best player on the ice and he did a lot of the trademark things he did but he also showed I think a bit of the adjustment and why maybe he had a bit of a slow start to the year right I think there was a lot of talk about how when Andrew Breckney came in, he wanted Yosey to change his habits a little bit with the intention of making life easier for him and also making it more sustainable for him to produce for the full season, right? Because previously there had been so much on his plate in terms of puck transportation and being one of the rare defensemen

that has to go back at the puck, beat a four checker, and then carry it up the ice, carry it into the zone, and then expect it to also move around, like modern day defensemen do and try to score as well, right? And that just kind of an unrealistic expectation for any player and any defenseman, particularly one who's now getting up there in age and isn't necessarily in his first couple seasons anymore, right? And I think he spoke about how that was a bit of an adjustment for him.

And you could sort of see it pay dividends in that early goal in Winnipeg. I was speaking about where he gets the puck in his own zone and he quickly gets it up the ice. And it was like a beautiful breakout pass that. somehow defies logic by basically getting under Brendan Dillon's stick, but also working its way behind a linesman who is in the way and it gets to his forward and then he's able to score off the rush. And I think that's what Brunette envisioned, right? It's like, I still want you to be the catalyst and the person who creates these plays, but maybe do it in a way where you're more quickly

attacking and empowering your forwards to help you out rather than having to just kind of do it all yourself as the workhorse. And so you see that. It's very cool. And he certainly played his way I think the gap to start the year was too big, but based on these past 15 games or so, he certainly played his way into that kind of edge of the Norris trophy finalist conversation, right, with the elite guys. And so it's really cool to see him back playing at that level. You mentioned the activity of this team, and that's something I keep coming back to. And I think that's, I don't know if you agree with this, but I think it's really difficult

for us to quantify what a coach does, certainly, right? Because so much of it happens behind the scenes and we're just not privy to it, really. we can kind of, based on team results, I think that's how we tend to evaluate it, and sometimes that can be frau there. But one thing that I really do look at beyond just sort of meaningfully changing the identity of a team in the way Andrew Burnett has done this season with his Predator's squad is also these effort-based stats, right? Where it's like, I think we all agree, a coach is responsible for motivation and making sure

as players are prepared to play and making sure that there's an accountability where you're just constantly sticking to your identity, executing, and playing a certain way. And that's what this Predators team's done all year. There's seventh in cycle chances, fifth and four check, seventh in rebound. Those are all these kind of like multiple effort involved activity plays where even if you're not necessarily the most skill team, you can still find a way to be very difficult to play against by just giving it your all. And that's kind of what they've done.

And that's something I attribute like the players deserve credit, but that's also something I attribute to the coaching staff, and in this case, Andrew Burnett. Well, to tack on to that, I was looking at it earlier. According to sport logic, last year, Nashville had 13.4 quality chances per game. So quality chances is basically a grade A or grade B. So it's filtering out the grade C and saying that's not really relevant here. So 13.4. This year, they're at 15.8. So not a huge increase, at least, you know, when you don't have any context.

but across the league, that's like a top five bump. Because a lot of teams will stay right around that same number. Some will go below. Some will slightly increase, but 2.4 is actually a lot. And when you compound that over the full season, they've generated, you know, I don't know, hundreds of more scoring chances. And also when you look at the hockey viz, hockey, the heat maps,

it's quite alarming how much has changed as far as both on offense and defense under Brunette. But it's also kind of fun to look at from the, again, to go back to Yossi, like how this is still his team. A lot of the offense is still being generated from his point. And you can kind of tell, right, a lot of shots will be from the point. And like you said, Dimitri, Fortrick, you know, rebound, cycle chances come off those types of shots where he's maybe not always shooting to score or he's sometimes shooting as a shot pass or just to generate some action. But then you also see in these heat maps on hockey viz that there's almost like red blobs around where Yossi is probably passing the puck. Like it just sort of like naturally comes from his spot of the ice at the point.

So that's also comical. But like it's almost night and day though, the way that this team looks. And the roster isn't quite constructed to play this system as far as having all of the right players to play this style. But I think given where they are in their evolution as a team, it was probably smart to go all in on Brunette's system this year, even if it wasn't going to completely blow the doors off the league because you have five or six players on the roster

that can't quite do all the things that Brunette wants to do. But I think given the context of where they're at, that was smart by Barry Trotz and Andrew Brunette to really, like sink their teeth into the system in this, what was supposed to be a transition year? And I guess still is, but they've, they've actually played well enough to probably make the playoffs.

No, I mean, they certainly have. And you're right, I think laying the sort of foundation or blueprint and then kind of building it out from there is key this season, both offensively and defensively. So both ends of the ice,

they're top 10. Well, they're 11th in offensive, expected goals, but let's round up and give them a favorable. I'll just say it's top 10, just for the purposes of this. They're top 10 and expected goals generated.

and expected goals allowed defensively. Their top 10 in inner slot shots taken and given up. Their top 10 in offensive zone time spent with the puck and top 10 in least amount basically conceded to the opposition. And that sort of tells you how they're trying to play. And I think Brunette now, this is the third team essentially, all that have had different kind of quirks and certainly different personnel and an amount of firepower.

But now he's had three different teams humming like this where it was first the Panthers, then the Devils. now the predators, and sort of tragically I've talked about for the devils, a lot of the stuff that the predators are doing to succeed right now are the exact blind spots that the devils have had this season that have kind of done them in and been a big reason for their undoing. And so that's very depressing to think about because I think a lot of that can be traced back to what Brunette is doing tactically. They only have two regulars on this team that are sub 50% expected goals at five on five this

season, and they are Colton Sizzins, who's 49.6, so he's essentially there. And Jeremy Lowe's on 48.9, and those are the two heaviest defensive zone deployment guys as well. So that kind of speaks to the depth of this team and how there isn't much drop-off. Now, with that being said, the top line has been phenomenal this season and been taking over games, particularly lately with Forsberg-O-Reilly and Nyquist. We mentioned Yose. Soros has a 9-40, say percentage of 5-1-5 during this stretch as well. And so him bouncing back has been huge. And you put that all together And the reason why I think it's worth talking about

is because for so long, we viewed whoever wound up drawing either the predators or I guess like that, you know, mishmash of teams like the blues, flames, Cracken, Wild, whoever kind of we thought was going to be the second wild card. We spent a lot of time on this show talking about what a treat it was

for whoever wins the West to draw that team in round one. And now the predators might not even be the second wildcard. They might be the first one. But the point stands, that this is actually kind of a scary team, I think, to draw in round one for a higher seated team because I think whoever plays them is going to look at that matchup and say, listen, we have more talent, we've been the better team this regular season, we should still win this.

But whenever you face a team like this where you're never really going to have the puck in the offensive zone against them, they're just going to kill large stretches of the clock. If they get up early against you, they can just play that way similar to what the Canucks have been doing this year, except they have UC Soros in that, and he's going to be a really difficult problem to solve. And they have some of that high-end talent. And so you put it all together. And it's kind of a,

it's a unique combination of things that I think could frustrate a lot of the better teams in the West. And you're sort of seeing it during the stretch. Yeah. And I was looking at it earlier. And you're right, Nashville's very good with the lead too. I think they're third and among all 32 teams and winning percentage

after leading after one period. So, I mean, that's, that's a feather in their cap. And there's something really, dangerous about a team that's playing to their strengths, playing their

system, and has kind of nothing to lose as a wildcard team and also as a surprise wildcard team. Now, I would still rather draw the Nashville Predators than the Vegas cold nights if I'm up top of those other divisions. But nevertheless, it's impressive. And shout out to Jason

Zucker, who's looked quite good in his new role here in Nashville. The fact that Trots got him for a sixth is criminal. all. And who knows? Maybe he resigns. He's overpaid right now, but if he comes back on three, four million, maybe that makes sense. It has been, it hasn't been, except for, I just wanted to point out, except for Philip Grubauer, leveling him to the point where you could almost see

his soul leave his body. And so it was a funny moment. Nothing really came of it other than that. But yeah, I did want to point out that that's maybe one thing that hasn't gone Zucker's way so far in Nashville. But he's a rush player. He's a guy who bribes off the rush. And, what are the Nashville predators right now? They're a rush team in a lot of ways. And, you know, I found it interesting, too, that they sold on Trennan, but have re-signed Dante Fabro and Mark Jankowski and Tommy Novak recently. So, like, Trotson Burnett seemed to be really trying to identify the guys of the future here in season

and trying to set themselves up for an off-season where they can maybe spend some money, maybe, you know, who knows what happens with Saros with Ascarov on his way, on its way. So, you know, obviously a very interesting team to watch coming into the summer. Let me give you one more stat about this team and you can draw your own conclusions from this. This is a corner natural statric most time spent leading the season. One, the Canucks, two Bruins, three Rangers, four Panthers. I swear I'm not just sorting by point percentage the season. five Nashville Predators

six stars seven aves eight jets nine kings ten hurricanes that's a pretty good list of teams and also a pretty good spot for the predators to find themselves in especially given the way we just talked about how

when they are playing from up what a threat they can be and it's just such a defined what I love about it's such a defined approach and then they're just executing it and that's a scary team to face but I think you hit the nail in the head there in sort of switching gears here a little bit and looking ahead because for all the success this season and it being a great story and there's being a fun team to watch, I don't think

there's any team in the league right now that's in a more interesting spot or at least one for us to kind of really keep tabs on heading into the summer than the national predators is an organization because you mentioned the money. I mean, they have 66 million right now in cap commitments for next season on seven forwards, five. defensemen and two goalies. I'm not counting the guys who are like under a million dollars that can kind of be moved around as need be. And that includes 12 million in dead cap on all the buyouts and retain salaries they have. Yet they still have about 20 million functionally to spend for a team that we've seen is a very desirable landing spot for a lot of free agents. And it's not a great

UFA class. But all of a sudden, a guy like Jake Gensel, considering his skill and school scoring ability and their need for some of that becomes very interesting. They also have nine picks in the first four rounds after having, what, four picks in the top 50 last year because of their sort of fire sale

after Trots took over. They have the most valuable trade chip on the market in UC Soros, and as much as I love him and just think the world of him, considering all the defensive stats we just mentioned and how they're playing under Brunette. I'm pretty sure that some combination

of calling up Yaroslav Ascarov and, I don't know, let's just say signing Lauren Brassoa or bringing in someone as a kind of a veteran to split starts with Ascarov in year one and two, I'm pretty sure those guys could give you league average, say, percentage based on the way this team plays. And so that's interesting. And then they have this HL team that won 19 games in a row this year and was led entirely by top prospects that they've drafted high in the draft in the past couple of years. That doesn't even include Melendike and Matthew Wood, who were their first two rounders

last year, but it's all these guys that look like they're pretty much ready because they've either been playing overseas previously or what they've done this year to step up soon and contribute at the NHL level as well. And so it's this amazing combination of futures that are almost ready to go, flexibility, assets, and a team that's kind of laying that groundwork we would describe here. And so if there's anyone that's sort of in a position to consolidate all this stuff and take a massive step from initial success this year, I think it's them. Now, I'm not sure how aggressive they're going to be in that regard, but everything we've kind of heard from Barry Trots and seen is, I imagine, pretty aggressive, right? Like, they tried to make some

big swings at last year's draft in Nashville. They've been pretty active since Trots took over, and I imagine they'll be very intrigued in sort of trying to build off of this season constructively, as opposed to sort of viewing it as a pleasant surprise, but still taking it's low. Yeah, in the summer, I was, I didn't think the O'Reilly and Shen acquisitions were bad or by any means, but I was thinking like, you know, is Trots just trying to bring in the veterans and just doing like an old hockey guy thing? And is this going to set them back? Is this the right approach? And I think it's fair to say that it's been, it's been a pretty good approach. And part of the reason why he would do something like that versus bottoming out is that Nashville, although it has a great fan base, is, one of those markets that really wants to make the playoffs every year. Like getting in as a wildcard, that's a huge thumbs up from ownership. And it's a mandate for people like Barry Trott.

So for them to have that always lingering, but also the ability here with the way that their books are structured, with not a ton of money committed long term, with high-end players like Yosie and Forsberg and Saros, to maybe make some noise this summer. And as you said, maybe it comes at the expense of Saros and him going elsewhere, but that might be the prudent approach.

And you know, you mentioned the draft picks. I mean, they have their first round pick and three seconds. I mean, you can do some serious damage at the draft there. So they're certainly operating on multiple timelines. I don't know if it's three timelines versus two that we see with some teams because, you know, even just making the playoffs counts as a timeline. But they can make some noise and I don't know. I just maybe it's, you know, maybe too early to say that Trots and Brunette are this great tandem.

It's only been, you know, three quarters of a season. But it sure feels like they're on to something as far as style of play and being on the same page and bringing, you know, an entertaining product to Nashville and also so far a winning product. Okay, that's enough on the press because I want to before we go to break, also talk about the Washington Capitals with you. And the good segue here is you mentioned operating on multiple timelines. And they come to mind when thinking about that, right? Because on the one hand, after a couple wins here recently, they're up to 16th in the NHL in point percentage. There are only three points now behind the flyers in the Metro for that third slot there with two games in hand on them. And the reason why that's notable is Philly is just in this absolute.

gauntlet of a schedule right now where they've lost recently to the Bruins and the Leafs, but their next five games are Leafs, Hurricanes, Bruins, Panthers, Rangers, which is an absolute murderer's row of teams and that's very difficult for them, certainly. And then the last game of the season is Capitals Flyers. And so I know that the Islanders are going to be heard from here. Somehow the Devils and the Penguins are still alive against all odds, but that could be a game with significant. significant ramifications in the metro.

And listen, for the purposes of this season, I'm still highly skeptical about this Capitals team. Like, I think they have a minus 30 goal differential or something on the year, particularly offensively, which is a big sort of limitation for them. They're 29 in goals per hour generated. Only the ducks, hawks, and sharks score less often than them. And that's obviously kind of a big concern here for them. Now, I think all of this is essentially gravy because I went into this year

talking about how none of this matter, like literally the only purpose of the season for them, was helping push Rovetchen closer to catching Gretzky in goals. And yet what we've seen them do has been incredibly fascinating because along the way, they've incorporated a bunch of young players, right? Where we're seeing Connor and McMichael and Hendricks LaPierre play big roles down the middle for them.

They've gotten contributions from ProDUS, from Miroshenko. There's so much to like there in terms of incorporating young as they've drafted recently, and they're actually winning games, even if it's not in necessarily sustainable fashion or that they're a meaningful contender. It's just remarkable to me that they're hanging around this late into the season while actually trying to operate on this different tiebine as opposed to just being like a purely veteran team that's hanging on for dear life. Yeah, you said it minus 30 goal differential while also being one point back to the playoffs with

one game in hand. Like that's difficult to do. And, you know, maybe this is an easy thing to say because they're right in the middle of the pack and the standings. But they seem like one of the most mid teams in the league on paper at this point. Certainly not bad enough to end up in the bottom 10, but they're not good enough to make any noise. And, I mean, if they make, they do make the playoffs, I don't think it'll be much of a, much of a series against a team like Florida. And it's honestly, it's such a tough task for management. I feel for that front office in a way because

first of all, ownership is saying we need to stay competitive during the end of Obie's career. And also, if you're the front office, you probably agree with that. Like, it's kind of a fair thing, given what he's chasing. But then, you know, at last year's deadline,

they try to thread the needle here and do a quick retool. They sell, you know, five, six guys. They're really decisive. And this year they were too. Edmondson, Kuznetsov, Mantha, Aller all out the door, Nick Dowd and Max Petreides stay, which I get in two different contexts, but you can justify those.

So they're selling, they're keeping. They have so much money tied up in the cup guys. You know, Ovechkin, Carlson, Wilson, Oshie, they're the only guys left from that cup run. So it just makes the roster very old. They've picked so late for so many years that the guys that you mentioned, the teenagers, the early 20 guys, they're good. They're capable NHLers, but they're not popping off the page as far as their numbers

or perhaps they're sealing in the future. And what does that leave you with? Dylan Strom has 51 points in 66 games, and he's leading the team in scoring. It's kind of crazy how little offense they've produced this year. So, I mean, it's so tough, right? Because if you compare them to Pittsburgh, you've got Crosby, Malk, and Lantang. still playing at a high level. Obviously, Crosby, you know, is a cut above those two

as far as the sustainability of his prime. But then you look over at Washington, okay, Ovechkin-Baxter, Carlson is sort of the equivalent. Well, Baxter's not playing. Ovecken slowed down significantly. And Carlson's, you know, not in his peak anymore. He's pretty good, but not at his peak. So it's really just a perfect storm of mediocrity, I'll say,

that has put them in this spot. But, hey, props that they're right there at the cutoff line right now. Well, I think, see, I think we're operating on two way different wavelengths here when looking at this team because I think when you compare them to the penguins, like not only are the capitals higher than them in the standings right now

but their outlook moving forward is just so much significantly brighter because But I guess I'm saying that it's a credit to Washington that their big three is just not quite

the big three in Pittsburgh so it's a lot more difficult to do what they're doing But at the same time, you can look at that in the other side of the coin and go, you know, I see a lot of mediocrity. Yeah. Well, I mean, their stars clearly fell off as they bridged from one era to the other. But I think what they've shown is that they have a management group that's like pretty shrewd in the grand scheme of things in terms of like, especially plucking talent from other teams that's below market cost and getting production out of them, drafting, developing and then incorporating those players. I mentioned all the guys that are playing roles on this team. whereas you compare it to the penguins.

And it's a bit of a lazy comparison because it's like, all right, yeah, they're both in the same division, but they're going to be eternally linked through the Ovechkin-Crosby parallels, right? And I think our palo Jack Fraser point is on Twitter, but it's also fascinating how they're almost, they've gotten to roughly the same place here at this point in time, but in taking completely inverse routes

where, as you mentioned, the penguin stars are the reason why they're still somewhat loosely described as competitive, but their management has completely done them no favors by surrounding them with no talent to kind of help along the way, whereas the capital stars have fallen off, but they've done all this shrewd stuff on the margins and found the complementary talent. And so it's almost sad because if you put the two together,

you'd have a super team. But what I'll say about them is they have five picks in the first three rounds this year. They had six in the first three rounds last year. They've got Ryan Leonard coming, who I cannot wait to watch. I think he's immediately going to step in and just drive people crazy and it might be as soon as at the end of this year.

And so we'll see on that. But I just think moving forward, they're an interesting case study, I guess, because they're transitioning from one era to the next. They're still competing, yet they're actually doing so in a way that benefits them in the future as well. Oftentimes these aging cores,

like you say, all right, the mandate is, We want to be competitive while Ovechkin's still around. Well, generally we see teams sort of double and triple down by doing what the penguins have done, which is like, all right, we're going to sign all these bets. We're going to bring in Lars Eller and Nolachari and do stuff like that. And then that just winds up being the exact opposite of what you want because it just shoots you in the foot and makes you older and slower. Whereas this Capitals team had some of those moves, certainly in the offseason, but also has brought in these young guys who are at least growing on the fly and getting these valuable reps.

So I'll be tracking them moving forward to see how they do. But it is interesting. And listen, like the past two games they played against the Canucks and Cracken and showed you exactly how they want to play, but how they need to play, right? Where it's like Charlie Langren has been phenomenal. And then it's just incredibly low event. I believe the shots and goal in those two games were 2422 and 2423.

And that's exactly what they want. And if they can keep it that way, they can be very annoying to play against and steal these games. I'm with you where if it's a round one match, against Florida, that will be much more difficult to accomplish. But I still view this season as a big net positive, because I went into the year just being so disenchanted, I guess, with like, kind of the state of the team. And I was like, oh, man, this is going to be ugly. And I've actually been very pleasantly surprised and think there's much more to cling onto for hope than certainly

with Pittsburgh where it's like, all right, well, Crosby and Malkin are still good. But man, we just signed a bunch of guys to long-term deals and everyone is looking worse by the day. And so there's not much to to kind of hope for, I guess, moving forward that it's going to actually get better. Yeah, I mean, a guy like Rasmus Sandin, he's 24 about to start next year on a long-term deal that's paying up 4.6,

that'll age nicely, I think. They've made a bunch of bets like that, as he mentioned. Abbey Kubel, you know, even Lingren. He's been a revelation there as far as what he's been able to provide them versus what people thought he would be as an NHL player. So yeah, no, you make a good point. There's,

there's some bets there that have paid off. And it's almost like an impossible situation to turn around quickly, given how much baggage was there. And you wonder what happens when, say, OSHA after 24, 25 leaves, because that's, you know, that's a significant contract off the books. And players like that start to leave. the picture and open up some more some more money. So they're

I don't know, they're they're just a they're just like grinding out team at this point when you watch them. They are. Almost the national predators in reverse. Well, even lower event, I'd say than that. But yeah, I mean, I think they're almost doing that

out of necessity right now because that's the only way they can survive. Like if it was more open-headed, they would just get blown out of the water. but what I'm saying is I appreciate that while they're doing so, they're also trying to look ahead and do so with younger players as opposed to just having a bunch of 36-year-olds out there holding on for dear life, which it feels like the penguins have been doing,

and that's what makes it even more tragic that watching their stars be at that level while that's happening around them. Okay, John, let's take a break here. Then we'll come back, we'll jump right back into it with you. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. up on what happened in Vancouver Sports with Halford and Bruff in the morning. Be sure to subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. We're back here on the Hockeypedo cast joined by John Mattis. John, let's talk about

an article that you put out on the score here recently, kind of looking at the, I guess, evolution or progression or how far we've come with analytics and hockey and sort of talking to people at various levels in the sport about the application of it, kind of how that process has unfolded. In particular, I thought, I mean, I thought your note about like the practical usage for a guy like Travis Connecting and a difference that's made in his production in his career is a very important one, certainly. But also, I thought the stuff with Bruce Cassidy was very riveting. And you sent me some even further quotes that I guess just didn't make the cut because editors are very picky about how many words we can squeeze into an article, as my editors can certainly

attest to. But I thought the stuff there was really fascinating in particular, not only because the Golden Knights won the cup last year. And I think whenever that happens, teams are going to clearly try to adopt a lot of what they did. But also because they're kind of doing it again right now. They've had injuries and they've kind of fallen off. But a lot of those same principles, if you look at underlying numbers, are still playing out much the way they did last year. And so that's to keep in mind moving forward.

But let's talk about that. And kind of I want to talk to you about the process of putting this together, the conversations you had and kind of all that good stuff in terms of the behind the scenes of this coming together. Yeah, sure. So to give listeners an idea of where I was coming from with this story was I just wanted to capture what's happened over the past 10 years as far as data further entrenching itself into hockey operations. And the reason why 10 years makes sense is because in 2014, that was the quote unquote summer of analytics where you had guys like Tyler Delo, Eric Tulski, Sonny Meta, Tim Barnes all leave Twitter, the blogs for, for teams and they were just gone and all of them are still in the league.

So there was that and then I also wanted to dive a little deeper into Eric Tolski's story because although he's been written about previously I thought there wasn't a ton on his background as a scientist and also his movement up the ranks in Carolina. So that was where it was coming from and it turned out to be a pretty in-depth piece and one of the big findings of it was that

I did some research, whether it was talking to PR staffs or checking out media guides or websites and found out that, you know, the amount of people working in data-related jobs has 10xed over the last 10 years. It's gone from roughly 15 across the league in 2014 before that big hiring spree to 150. So that's obviously pretty significant as far as the buy-in across the league. And it's certainly not surprising to anyone that's been paying attention. But I find it interesting to look back at a 10-year time horizon and go, wow, that's pretty significant. And 70% of the league now has two to five people working in data rules. So that gives you kind of an idea of where hockey analytics is as far as the NHL and

teams investing bodies and manpower into it. And Demetri, you brought up Bruce Cassidy. I talked to roughly 20 people for this story, and he was probably the. 18th person I talked to. And it was one of those things where I'm like, okay, he just kind of made this all fit together because I turned on my recorder. I asked him about how the data has gotten better over the years since he's been in the league, how he's using it differently than perhaps 10 years ago. And he just kind of talked to me for 10 minutes. I added in a couple of comments or questions in between, but he had plenty to talk about. And one of the things that I found interesting was

there was no hint of sort of having his backup about numbers. It was all, it's all helpful to him. He doesn't necessarily think everything that the analytics department delivers to him is of value. But even just talking about something like shot attempt differential or expected goals, he sees it as a snapshot of the game. It's as simple as that to him. Where if his team played really well, but lost, for two, but yet the expected goals are actually in Vegas's favor, that kind of makes them

sleep better at night. That gives more context to what he saw from the bench because it's hard data. On the topic of expected goals, he did mention that, you know, he's hoping that there's going to be more and more nuance baked into those metrics as time moves on here because the way he put it was, you know, if you're taking a one-timer in the offensive zone from the same spot, let's say the left circle, and it's Stamco's getting it from Kutrov, and then he used his own team as an example if it's, you know, Keegan Kulisar getting it from Nick, Nick Waugh, like, sure the expected goals are- Keegan Kola-Ras was reading that article being like, hey, man, what did I do? What did I do to you?

Yeah, basically. But he was trying to make the point, Cassidy, that like, you know, the expected goals, models have gotten a lot better, but, you know, there's still so much more contacts that needs to be added as far as the players that are taking the shots, you know, is there disruption to their shot, are there screens, etc. So again, I found my conversation with him super interesting and I'll just pass along another one that he brought up was two-on-ones. Like, it's intuitive to think, okay, let's get the goalie moving on a two-on-one and finish this with an East-West pass. But until you say, see the hard data, you maybe don't use that as a talking point with your players. So you're going

two on one, you know, is the mentality before you have the hard data to just take the best shot possible? Probably. But then when you have the hard data saying when there's a pass made there on a two on one, you know, I'm just making this up, but you know, there's an 80% better chance if it's, if there's that East West pass, then you're probably going to do it. You're probably going to tell your team, okay, in most scenarios, go for that pass. So talking to Cassidy was quite illuminating and was sort of the tip of the iceberg of the article, but I felt like he sort of brought it home as a Stanley Cup winning coach who takes this stuff seriously, doesn't get offended by it, but also isn't, you know, living and dying by the numbers either.

So, yeah, I don't know where else you want to take this. Well, what I will say is, first of all, I thought he spoke very, actually brilliantly about it. just compared to a lot of the other stuff I've seen from coaches and sort of showed a self-awareness, I guess, but also like a confidence in knowing that this isn't something that's trying to take his job away from him. Right. There's almost this combative nature sometimes with people in the sport where they're viewing it as like, oh, this is something that's going to make my life more difficult, which is ironic because the whole purpose of it is to help you out if you're using it correctly. But I thought it was very practical because, as I mentioned, the golden nights again

this season, they're 16th defensively in offensively and offensively. And offensively, and offensively, their 26th and shot attempts. So they're in the bottom, either the halfway or bottom half of the league in both. And yet their first in inner slot shots allowed in terms of fewest, their 10th fewest expected goals against. And you're sort of, you're seeing the practical nature of what he's talking about in that piece of, and I think he even alluded to it. It's like, yeah, defensive zone time is not going to paint our performance. performance in a very glowing light, but that's by design and that's what we're trying to accomplish. And so that's one thing. I think the other stuff that I really appreciated from him was he sort of

showed, I think, the best usage of it or application of it, which is like identifying problems potentially, in particular when investigating where it doesn't necessarily line up with what you watched or what your preconceived notions of what happened were, right? And I think oftentimes, unfortunately, and I'm guilty of this myself as well, some of this stuff can be used as kind of like a crutch or or someone I guess just reinforce a belief you already had heading in, right? Where it's like you can just manipulate the numbers to be like, all right, well, I think this is good and this is bad. And then I'm going to show you data that reflects that. And sometimes it's done so in a way where you're potentially leaving out other stuff or

ignoring things that might conflict with that because they don't back up what you're saying and they don't get your point across, right? And in this case, for a coach, I think it's most useful if you think one thing, but then you see, especially over these 10 game samples he was talking about, where it's becoming a real trend, and then you'll dig into the video to identify where the mismatch between the two is, what's going on, and whether there's something you can pinpoint to address with your team strategically. And that seems exactly what he's doing. And I think that's exactly if I was in a front office, what I would want my coach doing with this stuff as opposed to worrying about little details here, or there or potentially just viewing stuff as as rubbish just because it doesn't support what

their belief was previously. Yeah, the whole coach versus analytics thing have really made sense to me back in the day. Like I guess it did in a sense that like people have egos and they're like, what's this new thing and is this going to affect my job, security and all that kind of stuff? But as far as application, I mean, say just to use sport logic data that we're both familiar with, I mean, it's off of video. It's just putting numbers on what you're seeing when you're going through video. So why wouldn't you want, not to cut corners, but why wouldn't you want like a tally of what you just watched?

Oh, okay, we just pre-scouted this team. Well, instead of having your video coach do his own tracking of, you know, four check chances or how they play off the cycle or whatever, you just get that report from sport logic and you add it to your discussion. And that was 10 years ago. Obviously, now they're using it in a multitude of ways. but one thing that I tried to get across a little bit in the story, but didn't quite have the room to fully deep and dive into it, was what I think the rise of analytics has done for front offices,

coaching staffs, you know, working with players is it's brought a different mentality to the, to the room. So I think there's so much value and diversity of thought. Like we love to talk about diversity like, hey, you know, there's not enough women in this organization or there's not enough people of color, whatever. But I think a key thing is diversity of thought. So if you have someone who is naturally data driven, you know, maybe has a math degree,

but is still a hockey analyst, you're going to get something different out of them than the coach that's been around for 30 years or the manager that was an ex-player or what have you. So having that person in the room that just looks at things differently and taking them seriously versus them being a punching bag or just someone there so you can tell your fans, yeah, we like advanced stats. I think that's been a huge development because some of these folks that have gone from being on the outside and now are on the inside, say 10 years ago, they're now quite influential. They're making big decisions.

They have teams under them. So they've gone from walking on eggshells around their GM to being the GM. PM's first call. And another thing, another thing to tack on to this whole diversity of thought thing is that the hurricanes, you know, what Eric Tolski told me is that they love to disagree. Like, that's part of their DNA is when they're having discussions. It's almost like don't speak up if you're going to agree because we want to go back and forth and disagree about something so we can come to the best conclusion. And I think that's, it's simple. It's happening in, you know, corporations everywhere. but, you know, how often do that happen, say, 10 years ago?

Obviously, in some organizations, but I think it's just become more part of the fabric across the league because you've got people looking at things differently coming in from a numbers perspective or, you know, to go back to the diversity thing, there's more women that are in hockey ops than ever before. Well, they have a different perspective on things. Maybe they came from women's hockey,

or maybe they just grew up in a different scenario know than all the other people in the room. And they can bring different things to the table. So I find that an interesting little side plot to all this. Well, that's why that background is very important having different lenses to view it through, right? Because you're going to approach a same scenario with two wildly different views of it,

depending on what your sort of expectations we're heading into it, right? And I think that's why it's important to have those diversity of voices. is like I did not really follow hockey very closely beyond like being a Canucks fan who would watch with my games locally with my dad and kind of like keep track of what was happening, but not necessarily following it the way I do now, certainly, or the way a lot of people who listen to the show do until I was like in university. I came from a basketball background. And so I think what that's helped me a little bit is a lot of hockey conversations kind of

boiled down to, well, we've always done it this one way. So that's why we're going to keep doing it that way. And then if you come from a perspective of not knowing what that way it was, you're going to just by nature, kind of start with a clean slate or a potentially entirely different perspective on it that's going to challenge that. Right. And so I think that's very important as opposed to just having everyone who is from the same town who played minor hockey all the way up and potentially even made it today at HL. And then you're just like, everyone's going it's a group think that's going to think the exact same way on everything. So I think that's very important and that's very cool. And so yeah, I think just thinking about this stuff, I mean,

you, you know, you talk to me about this as well when you were writing this up. And so I knew that you were working on it and you were sort of asking me stuff about kind of application of a lot of these concepts, but also just how much has changed over the years. And it really is, it's kind of humbling to think about because I guess like the more you come to understand or the more you think about it, the more you really realize, not necessarily how little you know, but like, how much is still unknown or you, like, as soon as you get one answer, four different questions pop up in terms of like what optimizing hockey looks like and kind of little edges you could find here or there. And while that can be sort of demoralizing in a sense, because there's still,

uh, so much unknown, it's also very motivating, right? Because it's like, if it was all figured out and it was a finished product and everyone just knew everything, then it would be kind of boring. you just kind of simulate the games and the results as opposed to actually thinking about this stuff on the fly and changing our opinions with more information presenting itself. So yeah, there's a lot to chew on there, but I think it's just fascinating to sort of reflect on it, I guess, and think on where hockey's at now compared to where it was in that summer of 2014 or whatever. Yeah, it's kind of wild to think that coursey was driving so much of the conversation in 2014.

And now, I mean, I never use it. I don't think it's like a useless stat by any means, but I just, think expected goals is better. So I've kind of put Corsi off to the side. And then there's better things than expected goals too. So you start moving in different directions and gaining momentum as far as one, better data, better technology, better data, and then better insights gleaned from that data. So it's sort of an evolution. And Demetri, you've talked about this before on the show where, you know, you're half joking, but you're sort of like, I'm more of an eye test guy than an analytics guy anymore.

And that's, that was a big part of the piece that I learned was like, okay, say talking to Bruce Cassidy, you know, I think he played in the NHL in the 80s. Like he's been around the game for a long time, quote unquote old school in the sense of his resume. Well, he's, you know, found common ground with these numbers people. And then you see a lot of numbers people like Eric Tolski, who's kind of come into the middle more towards the old school side. And I'm not saying that he's old school.

but like if you spend 10 years in a hockey organization and you're around guys like Don Waddell and you start to watch a lot more hockey from a different sort of angle on the inside, you start to drift towards the other side too. And that's good, right? You don't want to be on the one extreme because then you're probably missing a lot. So that's been an interesting development too, where the quote unquote old school hockey people and the new school hockey people have sort of met in the middle in a lot of ways. Well, I would argue there's no such thing as one or the other anymore if you're trying to be successful, right? And that's true. It should be because it's like not only is this a livelihood, but it's also a passion. And so what does that mean?

Well, I want to learn more about it, the thing I'm passionate about. And so what does that into it? Well, give me information and then allow me to work with it and experiment and watch stuff and see how it plays out. And that's how it should be approached. Right. There isn't, it's not one or the other, but it's also not like a certain formula of like how to use it. Like it's just incorporating at all into one bigger picture. Yeah, and one part of the story was kind of looking ahead, well, looking back and also looking ahead, looking back in a sense that, okay, can we identify any trends in the league that are data-driven, data-influenced?

And some of the feedback I got was it's really hard to tease out, like, was this trend data-driven, for example, having one defenseman and four-forwards on the power play? because that's really taken off for the last 10 years? Or is that data reinforced? Like, was that already coming? And it just got accelerated by the fact that we had hard data saying, yes, this is the way you should play. So the more that data is embedded in the game,

and especially at the NHL level, the more difficult it'll be to separate the two and go, oh, this is a quote unquote analytics hire or acquisition or playing style. And it's more just that might be influenced by data. but it's, you know, thrown in there into the pile with a bunch of different insights from the eye test and just different ways to look at the game. Everyone in hockey, John, is a numbers person when you can provide them with numbers that support whatever their agenda is.

As soon as you find stuff that might kind of contradict it, then all of a sudden it's different. But I have also said that you either die a hero or you watch hockey long enough to become a villain and that's exactly, or become an eye test. person and that's exactly how I view my trajectory here. All right, let's plug some stuff on the way out. You talked about this article, let the listeners know where they can check that out and kind of what you've got in the works here as we transition from from trade deadline season heading quickly towards the post season, which is the most fun time of the year. Yeah, I mean, I would say just follow me on Twitter, M-A-T-I-S-J-O-H-N, no space, Mattis John. I pin the story about the evolution of analytics

in my profile. It's called the NHL's evolution through the decade of data. So yeah, just go to my profile, follow me or read the story, and go from there because like you said, we're getting into the nitty-gritty of playoff preview season coming up here in the next few weeks. All right, well, that'll be fun, man. I recommend everyone goes check that out.

John, how can I have you on again soon? My only plug is go hop in the Discord server, which we talk about all the time. If you're not in there, we're building an army of at least 500 now nerds so that we're going to mobilize here soon to take over the sport. So if you're not in there, but you're listening to the show, you're missing out. So hop in there.

They invite like in the show notes. We're going to be back tomorrow. I got Gerald Belfrey on. We are doing a Sam Reinhardt deep dive. So that should be a really fun one, which you'll be able to also watch on the HockeyPedocast YouTube channel, where we'll post all the clips. And we'll back tomorrow with that. So thank you in the meantime for listening to the HockeyPedioCast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.