The Hockey PDOcast - Why the Flames are struggling, and how much of it is fixable

Episode Date: March 7, 2023

Julian McKenzie joins Dimitri to talk about the Flames, how they got into the position where they're at real risk of missing the playoffs, and how much of their struggles are fixable versus legitimately concerning.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Filippovich and joining me as my buddy Julian McKenzie. Julian, what's good on, man? Things are good, man. Good to talk to you again, man. Hope things are good. Yeah, no, things are great. I'm happy to have you on. You know, it's going to be a slightly different tone than I was actually expecting because we first started chatting Monday morning, Monday afternoon, planning on doing a show together. and then the flames have a thrilling last second win last night.

It looked like it was going to be actually kind of more of the same, right? They blow that 4-2 lead and it's like, okay, well, this has kind of become part of the script at this point, and then Dialogne Foley scores that breakaway goal with five seconds, I believe. And so now it's a, you know, a slightly more optimistic tune, but still I think a lot of the themes and a lot of the topics that we were going to hit anyways still applied, and I think still showed themselves in last night's game. so it's not necessarily that different, but we should still acknowledge that, you know, at least there is something to build off of Osnay.

Absolutely. And, you know, just seeing that goal yesterday and seeing how those guys reacted, such a change from some of the faces we saw last week. I think it was a game against Minnesota where, I don't know if you saw it. It was a hockey in Canada. Oh, yeah. Yeah, the pan across the bench with all those players looking against the spawned as they looked. Like, this is a team that really needed that win.

I think their confidence was as low as it's probably been all season, and then they go into that Dollar Stars game. And you're right, like it looked like it was going to be more of the same. But I think a goal like that, if a team, like the flames, like if they go on a run off of this, like you go back to that game and you go back to that moment, where you found a way to beat this prevailing theme, this here we go again type of feeling.

that has been plaguing your team. You go back to that moment and you say, hey, that was an opportunity where we were able to beat that. Well, I think we're going to learn a lot more about that as soon as tonight, right? Because I believe they play the Minnesota wild. But, you know, as of this moment,

Dom's model of athletic has them at 31% playoff probability. I think the most jarring part to me, I didn't even realize this, is that like, they're competing closely with the Nashville Predators for one of those final wildcard spots, right? it basically looks like it's going to be between the flames, the Predators, and the Jets. And in a stark contrast to what the Flames did at the deadline, which is pretty much standing

pad for the most part, except for, you know, they added Choice Detcher and they did the first ever brother for brother trade involving the Richies. But the Predators, on the other hand, basically embrace being full sellers, wind up trading three, four key pieces off of their roster for eight future draft picks. And so for all the people that were like, oh, man, I wish the, I wish the flames did something like that. It's kind of adding insult to injury to see them, I think actually behind the predators at this moment in terms of point percentage is kind of crazy. Yeah, they are behind them as of now in terms of points percentage. And yeah, I can understand why people kind of feel that kick in the nads off of that just because, you know, like the

Fred's sold. And it looked as if they, and that's something wild too because the Fred's, you could have made the argument that like a season or two ago, they should have sold. And like now they're finally going about it. And they're setting up barrier trots for for his go run as GM. but to see the flames in the situation that they're in and look you could tell me if I'm wrong from your perspective but I really thought it was going to be a difficult justification for them to sell considering the moves they had done up until that point

from the summer before to the present day like I feel like when you have the squad that you have and you have the results that you've been getting like to just be like okay well we're tearing everything down or we're at least doing some kind of retool like I feel as if like well maybe I'm sure Bradshaw living I mean he told us that he

examined everything I still think it would have been a really tough sell for for guys like Nazan Khadry and Jonathan Huberto even if they haven't necessarily been playing up to snuff like to kind of sign those guys and then like hey yeah sorry we're gonna kind of go through a bit of a rebuild here they're kind of if we're just say they're kind of a stock

but like you kind of have to be in a position where you go for it but at the same time like this team did not want to give up any of their premium assets, whether it's the first round pick or Matthew Corrinato or Dustin Wolfe, their best prospects, their best skating prospect, their best goaltelling prospect, respectively. And when you're in a situation where you're saying, those guys are off the table, you're not going to put yourself in position to get a guy like a Tim Omeyer, for example. So they were in a position where they were just like, okay, we're just not, we're going

to kind of do like a little minimal move. And that's really it. And I mean, look, for Stetcher, for Troy Stetcher and Nick Ritchie, they got points against the Dallas Stars. But yeah, I can imagine, I mean, you know, that's, I mean, we need to see more of our games, but I wonder how much of an impact those guys will really have on that locker group. And the rest of those guys, too, they too do also, like we're talking to Andrew Maggiapani last week. And he was saying, like, you know, yeah, if we add, we add, but, you know, we like the group that we have. And I feel, if anything, like, it served as like a vote of confidence, that deadline in a sense

because it's like, okay, you made a few small moves, but, you know, you're essentially doubling down on your core working. Yeah. It's a tricky question to navigate. Honestly, I totally get it because you can talk yourself into either angle, right? Like, I think you could easily paint a picture of this sort of being just a season from hell where everything kind of goes wrong and you don't want to overreact to that, right? You can really get yourself in trouble in this league if you, I know, like, 60, whatever. 64 games, whatever they played so far, isn't necessarily a small sample. But we know that as soon as next year starts, right, it's kind of irrelevant what happened this year. And in that sense,

it is in the grand scheme of things, a smaller sample. You don't want to get into the position or you start chasing your tail or freaking out to it because we look and it's like, all right, they're 28 in point percentage in one goal games. I believe they've lost 24 games. And they were decided by one goal and no other team in the league is even up to 20 at this point. the 31st in the league in shooting percentage, only the ducks are worse, and we can talk more about that because I think that actually might be a sign of a bigger problem. But in terms of goal tending, they're 29th in state percentage, and I think that is much more random. I think we can get into that as well, but that seems like if you replay these games all over again, there's almost

no scenario in which they'd wind up being 29th again. It seems like that's kind of entirely flukey. And so for me, it's easy to talk yourself into that. At the same time, I did find it interesting. I was watching, I was trying to balance, you know, the SportsSend and TSN broadcast on on trade deadline day because I just wanted to get as many perspectives as I could. And on the Sportsnet one, you had Ryan Leslie on kind of reporting from the Flames side. And he was talking about how, you know, there's some uncertainty about Brad True Living's future and not because the Flames organization would be letting him go, but because it's been such a stressful couple years here, especially the past year.

And he's just not sure if he wants to commit to doing this again, you know, if you might just want to move on. And what the reason why I find that fascinating is because they're kind of approaching rapidly this crossroads period as an organization where you look at their cap sheet for next season and pretty much the entirety of their roster are impending UFAs who are going to be playing on the last year of their deal. And a lot of them, especially the forwards, are playing under cap figures like you look at what Backlands 5.35, Lindholm's 4.85, Thufoli's 4.25, especially the last two guys are going to get pretty significant pay raises on that. on their next deals and like you know haniffin 4.95 he's almost certainly going to be in the six

if not sevens on his next long-term deal yeah those are very valuable assets if you decide all right this just this group doesn't have it it's not going to work those are incredibly valuable pieces to start whatever the next version of the calgary flames is going to be and if you've felt that way at the start of this deadline well i'm sure you could have gotten more for those guys considering how underpaid they are for two playoff runs from some contender whereas all of a sudden now you get the summer you get into the deadline next year. It's a much shorter window and it's tougher for teams to talk themselves into giving you a lot of features in return, right? So I think ultimately they need to decide which way they're going to go sooner rather than later because

they're going to need to act decisively. And I don't think sort of sitting on the fans and being like, well, we like this group, but we're not going to do anything is a very palatable solution. I think that I could really blow up in their faces. Yeah. I mean, you could tell me if I'm wrong, but like once they figure out, once they figure out who the GM is, then you have a much clear a picture of the futures for Backlin and Lyndon home and Topholi. Like, you can't be on, like, because I think if they keep Trilliving, I mean, even if they keep Brad Trilliving, he could always just be like, you know what, this team really just doesn't have it.

We're just going to sell off some of those assets, I guess. But I really think for this team, especially now, like, the flames need to figure out what's going to happen with Brad Trillivine. I know every time we've asked him, I asked him straight up over the last. the phone, like, do you want to come back? And like, it's, it's something that there will be dealt in time. That's, that's the prevailing answer. And it's pretty, been pretty closed or, or not closed, but it's been pretty quiet in terms of speculation on, on what he might do or what could happen or anything like that. And some people have been asking, like, you know,

hey, did him, that his, is his contract status? Does that really have an impact on how he went about the deadline? I'm not inclined to think he did it. I believe him when, I think I believe him when he says that it had zero impact just because of where the team was at and the performances that they had. But like I just, I think the biggest domino to fall will ultimately be Brad Trillivings future with the organization, whether he stays on or he doesn't stay on. And we've been speculating about this for months, whether or not you'll leave or you'll go for greener pastures somewhere else or if he'll stay for another few years.

It's like, I mean, I really, I'm not sure. where I lie on that as someone who has not been around the organization as long as other journalists have. Like I think Brad, I don't fault him for the moves he did last offseason. Like I think the fact that he turned Matthew Gitchuck and Johnny Goddrow essentially into Jonathan Hubertow, McKenzie Weger, and by extension as well, Nelson Cadry, like, I think there are a lot of people who might have done the same thing considering what those guys were able to do in other organizations. It's just a lot of bad luck, but also just some pretty bad performances at different points do, if we're really being honest.

I don't think anyone really expected the team to perform the way that they did, and they haven't really gone on that run yet, that winning streak yet, and there's still time for them to do of it, but not as much time as if they had done it like 20 games before. So for a guy like Brad Trillivan to go through all that emotion, and then go through, seize it as it is now, like, I can understand why you're kind of thinking about it a little bit or from his vantage point, we're like, you know what, maybe you don't. But maybe he does. It's still really unclear on that, which is fascinating in itself.

Because sometimes for other things you're like, oh, you know, we're hearing this or hearing that. And hey, maybe Frank Seravale will come up with something I don't know. But like, not come up as it like makes stuff up obviously. I'm not applying that. I mean, like, you'll get info. Yeah. I just want that cleared up.

I don't want to smoke with Frank Saravale. But like, it's quiet on that situation right now. And maybe that's by design. Well, here's one of the complicated things, though, is you ultimately do have to decide where you land on how representative this year's performance is of this team's actual ability versus how much you think of it is bad luck because, you know, they have Lutche's contract coming up the books this summer. They have, they trade it for the Nick Ritchie deal. That saves them a bit as well. But all that's ultimately all soaked up by the impending pay raises that you've already committed to Hubert-O and Uyghur, right? So I was looking at this and it's like they already have $81 million next year committed to 10 forwards,

six defensemen, which includes Schillington, and that's obviously still kind of a big, I know and big uncertainty in terms of his future and two goalies. And so on the one hand, you're kind of committed to bringing this group back then unless there is going to be a big trade involving one of those names we mentioned. And at that point, it's like based on what we've seen from this year, can you justify that? but also there's it's tough to commit yourself to like all right well I still believe in this group we're going to roll it back and then I'm going to potentially bring back some of these guys like what Michael Backlin's going to be 34 years old Chris Hanep's going to be in his mid 30s

you know it's different for a guy like Hanofin based on where he is in terms of his age but for a lot of these other players you ultimately have to decide whether we're good enough to kind of go for it again next year and risk losing them for nothing or whether it makes more sense to cash in on them now and try to sort of retool on the fly. Like there's a lot of different kind of timelines and moving parts there. And as you mentioned also, you already have kind of in the back of your mind, this reality that John Oderdubero is going to be in year one of an eight-year deal. Mackenzie Uighur is going to be in year one of an eight-year deal. Nowson Codry is going to be year two of a seven-year deal. And so you're already sort of pot committed to an extent to players

who are already in their 30s. And it's a matter of how much further you want to push the universe, whether you need to kind of take a cold hard look at yourself and take a step back accordingly. I wonder even if this team says that the core that they have, they want to run it back next year, considering how much the salary cap might go up next year, which doesn't look as if it's going to go up much, I wonder if you look at this core and you say, like, okay, we still have to shed some kind of salary. Like, yes, Milan Luchich contract is going to be off the books, but you, you, you, You mentioned it eloquently. Like, they're still going to be pretty tight up against the cap, even if his salary is off

the books because of all those extensions. I really wonder if you look at your forwards and you're like, hmm, Blake Coleman has an NTC. Okay. Do you, what about Backland in the final year of his deal? Is that something worth looking at? You just signed Andre Maggiapane to a new deal. He's 26.

He's making under $6 million. He's shown that he can score 30 goals. you kind of need that type of player but if people are asking about that type of player and that's a salary you can move do you think about that I'm not saying that as like a total reveal but like something that at least alleviates

some of that pressure off of your cap structure right you're gonna get you hopefully being hopefully things are okay with Oliver Schillington but presumably you get him back and then his salary is firmly in the fold in the string of things with you

now to mention your goaltending right you know what other extension you didn't bring up. Daniel Lidar got that extension earlier this year. He'll be in the first year of a two-year deal that pays him 2.2 mil. So, yeah, like the way the team's going to be set in terms of salaries, like, I think they really kind of did those deals banking on the fact that, you know, if this team was super competitive, they were making the way for the playoffs, they get a cup run in them.

Like, you could live with the fact that the salary structure is as it is because you're thinking, all right, well, this team's competitive enough. They could find a way to make it work next year. But it's a lot harder to stomach when you have all these one-go-go-game not go your way and you're on the outside looking and heading into the playoffs. Yeah. Well, another complicated factors you mentioned back on there. I understand, like, his age, and obviously that's going to influence the term on his next deal.

But, man, he is having an unbelievable season. Like, you look at, you watch him play and you look at the underlying number. I mean, I don't have a sulky ballot. I honestly would strongly consider putting him second out significantly behind Patrice Bergeron at the top of that list, but that's the type of caliber of season he's had. And so you look at him and it's like, well, this would have been a pretty good time if you decide to move on to sell high. A guy like Chris Tanev, you know, I imagine at 50% retained what his deal would have been

2.25 or 2.5 million or something like that for the next two seasons. That would have been a highly intriguing proposition for a contender to have for two playoff runs. So if you were to decide to go that route, I understand these are all moves you could still conceivably make at the draft or into next season, but it felt like that would have been the time to do so. So I understand people's frustration of kind of being perceived as sitting on the fence because you missed an opportunity to maximize value. And now by doing so, you've ultimately kind of boxed yourself into at least more realistically embracing the idea that you're going to bring at least a large majority of this group back for next season again. I wonder what those asking

prices were for those players. I really wonder what it was. We were seeing guys getting flipped for seconds. Like, on national radio or national television or podcasts, we talked about Luke Shen, who is like a six defenseman on so many teams. And people were saying, are the Canucks going to get a first round pick for Luke Shen? Like, we were at that point when we were talking about the trade deadline. So I too wonder what it would have been like for a guy like Michael Backlin who I think he's been really great. I think there's been games where he's played like the team's best forward out there. And he needs so much their organization too, right? Oh my God, he's done.

Absolutely. Longest-tendered flame on the team. Wait, like one, like, look, we've seen some of the lines kind of go up and down. One thing that, you know, I kind of commend Darrell Sutter for doing, I figure at almost every point he can, he tries to keep Backlin and Blake Coleman together. and the work that they're able to do, cycling down low, making turnovers in the offensive zone and maintaining offensive zone possessions and turning those into opportunities.

But like seeing those two work together, whether it's Adrimandrapani on their left or someone else on their left, like it's some really good work from this team. It's really good work from those two players. So yeah, I think a guy like Michael Backlin, I think he deserves a lot of praise for how he's been able to go up about playing this year.

Not to mention it doesn't have to play in some top six role when you have guys like Elias Linum and now some Kodz and Kajon. head of you in the pecking order. That helps back on. But, but, but, but, but, you know, little rant aside, like, I wonder generally what the asking price or what teams generally were offering, uh, for a guy like him or a guy like Tanna, who, look, before I came to this market,

people were, were describing him as like a McDavid stop or at least that's how it was kind of described the head of the playoffs. But, uh, yeah, we all know how that kind of turned out. But all that to say, like, what do you do with that? Well, Julian, if only one of us had a, regular podcast with one of the premier NHL insiders. Maybe one of us would be able to figure out what that aspect. Yeah, you're right.

You're right. You're right. You're right. That's true. I have no excuse between him and some of my colleagues at the athletic. You're right. I have no excuse. I should,

I could probably do some digging on my own event. What a call out, man. Oh, I'm a friend. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. I don't we've always be good. But no, to your point,

you're right. Like I generally would like to know, like, how much they genuinely considered going down that rolled of selling because I think they could have easily done it and well I think about it now like maybe they could have done it and it could have worked out in a certain way but also if the goal is to put yourself in a position where you get as good of a draft pick as you can get like they still have a lot of those guys on their team who they don't have it built in them in a tank so I don't know how well it would have really worked out yeah but we'll see how that but again this is them

doubling down on the team and saying we're better than what we've shown over the first 63 games and we still have it within us to do a ride. Like, that's, that's how I'm taking it from, from tree living and the rest of company on, on why they didn't do what they did at the deadline. Okay. Well, let's, let's, let's get into that. Then let's, let's, let's try to us out how, how representative this actually is on true talent versus how unlucky it's been.

And let's break it down first by defense and then we'll, and then we'll talk about the offense. So defensively, they are, as I mentioned, 29th in team save percentage. Only the King, Sharks, and Canucks are worse. Evolving hockey has Jacob Mark's, at minus 1.5 goals of above expected and Daniel Vilar at minus 4.6 goal save above expected. That's publicly available data. The privately available data, according to Sport Logic, seems to really like Calgary's defensive system even more than a lot of the public stuff we have,

because Sport Logic has Jacob Markstrom at negative 17.3 goal save above expected, which is, I believe, the sixth worst out of any goalie in the NHL this season. and I think his performance in the grand scheme of things has been the most startling to me because heading into the year a drum I was beating was the flames need to find a way to manufacture more starts for Daniel Vodara this season because I don't think that there's any goalie in the league who is more adversely impacted by fatigue or workload than Jacob Markstrom right like when he's fresh he looks one way and then as soon as he starts getting tired his decision making completely slips his technique completely falls off and he just

visibly looks like an entirely different goalie in that. And so I was like, as good as he was last year, I don't think he should have played 62 games or whatever in the regular season. And I think that did impact him in the playoffs. The flames need to find a way to play him 45 to 50 times. And you look now and he's on pace for like 51 games. And so you think, all right, this is great. This is exactly what we wanted heading into the year. And never in my mind did I expect that the reason we'd get there would be for performance-related reasons because they felt more comfortable in starting Vladara for significant stretches of time as opposed to last year. And so I think for me, that's kind of one of the most surprising parts or surprising developments of this in terms of

his usage and how his play and those games has fallen off this season. Yeah. And in talking to Jordan Sigelah, who's the director of gold sending for the flames, like the way that they've kind of a lot of these starts for Jacob March from, especially when he's going through a stretch or they're not going so well, like, it's sort of by design. I'm trying to remember specifically the number that Jordan had mentioned to me in terms of stars that they really wanted at Markstrom to get, but like they're going away from the 60. Like I don't think they necessarily want him to be at that point because they wanted to be as fresh as he can get for the postseason. But also they feel confident enough in Daniel Ladar. I mean, hence why he got that extension for him to

to be in a position where he could do that. But I also know, I also figure that for, for a guy like Dan Vladar, while it's a good, good vote of faith for him to get the extension and for him to get the starts that he's getting, like, I still think he has some ways to go in his game. Like I go back to that 13 game stretch where he managed to get a point in each of those games, like a consecutive point streak, which tied him, I think with Brian Elliott and Mike Vernon. In that 13 game stretch, he goes 10, 0, and 3, which is good.

But he has a 905 save percentage, which is not that great. Well, it's league average this season. Right. But like, that's not like for, there are a lot of people, especially during that stretch, who felt like, you know, like why are the flames still playing Jacob Marshall? Like Daniel Vodar should be the starter. And I remember, I think not that long before the streak ended or a little after that. Like I remember Daryl Sutter sort of saying that like, you know, hey, like there's some games.

where Danville or Nies were too and the immediate instinct is to be like, well, what are you talking about? Do you want all those games? But like, there's some stretches in there were like, you know, the goal setting was not necessarily perfect. Like, there's some, there's back-to-back games he got or back-to-back wins he got

where he got a win over Dallas and he got a one over Tampa. And he allowed like four goals and three goals in those games respectively. And both of those games, save percentages, below 900. In fact, there's a three-game stretch in that 13-game stretch where he gets, wins, but the safe percentage is below 900.

So like the flames were able to get points out of that. They're able to get wins out of that. But it's hard to say that Daniel Vladar, when you look at that specific stretch of 13 games, that he robbed every single team he was up against and was this all-world goaltender against these top quality teams. He did enough to get those wins. But I think when you really look at some of those numbers, there might have been a little bit of an overstating or a bit of an overreachee

in terms of how good Dan and Vladar was in those games. It's not to say he's not a good goalie, and he could still be a really good goal. He's really young, he's good and tangible, and it's clear that he's been able to get some women's this year, and there's every reason to give him more opportunities behind the net, especially with the fact that you've given them that extension, which in turn kind of gives more time for a guy like Dustin Wolf in your system

to continue to dominate the HL. I don't think the flames were in any rush to bring him up. What I think when you're, really look closely at that stretch of games, you can start to pump the brakes a little bit on how good Dan Vladar was in that. And when you really look at it as a whole, the goaltending hasn't really been there for the Calgary to play. I think in the last few games it's looked okay for Jacob Markstrom, but as a whole whole, they really needed better from their two guys. Well, I think, just hearing you say that, I think what that illustrates to me is just how

low the bar that they need to clear is in this system to give them a chance to win and they've clearly for a lot of the year in that combined fail to clear that bar right like how many times is it up to eight now that there's been a goal against in the first shot they face this season I mean I know it's become kind of a you know a bit of a you know it's a recurring theme clearly that it's happened but that must be so deboralyzing I think after one of the most recent ones against Colorado was reading some quotes from jacobarks from who I mean is if you need a peek into the psyche of an athlete, I feel like his, the quotes he's given out this year after some of these performances speaks to how difficult, how hard he's being on himself, right?

Not to excuse his performance, but it's clearly not for a lack of caring. Like if you, if you just kind of, you don't need to be parsing these quotes to feel like, oh, what is he trying to say? He's very clearly being very hard on himself. And he was saying like, well, like, you know, that first shot, like I just like need to stop it. I basically like, I'm doing my team of disservice because we're essentially just going down. 1-0 right out of the gate.

And sometimes it's a case where the flames come out. They have like the first 5, 6, 7 shots on goal and then 5, 6 minutes into the game. The other team comes down and puts one in from distance and all of a sudden you're down 1-0. You're starting, you know, you're fighting an uphill battle again. And so it's

I'm not sure what the answer is here, especially based on how good he was last year. But it's clear like that's a big issue. Now for me, it's a smaller issue in the grand scheme of things than the offense and we're going to talk more about that after the break. But for me, it is a more fixable thing that heading into next year, I wouldn't necessarily expect them to have sub-900 goaltending from these two guys again.

Here's one thing that's more frustrating about that. And for the record, I asked March from that question about the first shots in Colorado, and that's not an easy thing to do, but also like just like, I can understand for Marchroom, like just you go through a thing like that and you're thinking, all right, you just get a long shot to start and then you ease yourself in. Like, it's not always going to happen, but like it's not easy for him to go through. that and have that and you could see. I think you can visibly see now in those games where when that does happen, that does

take win out of their sales. But we're not talking about a flames team that, you know, is allowing like 30, 40 shots a game and Markstrom is struggling with all this pressure from the jump. Like, just quickly going on the H.O. website right now in terms of shots allowed per game, the flames have like the second fewest of any team. team like they'd only like the only trail of the carolina hurricane like like um i'm trying to think there was a game against arizona last like a couple of days ago which dan vladar is in the game and like this flames team should be killing the Arizona's of the coyotes within the first 40 minutes but dan vladar has

three goals on eight shots has allowed three goals on eight shots like that's what's been super frustrating i think there are elements in their in their defensive slash checking structure that are very good they're able to limit shots against against really good teams or even teams are not that good. Like, you can, you can see that in so many games, even in their Colorado game, they didn't allow that many chances. But when the goaltending is not there, like, it, it, there's no way you can tell me it doesn't affect the team in some way.

I know we've had guys like, doesn't do, they say, like, hey, like, the discussion about gold tendings a bit tired, but, like, you can't tell me that they're going through a game. Yeah, come on. You can't tell me you're going through a game. And then that happened, you're like, oh, man, like, here we go again. And I'm not saying, like, they got beef with Marshall. I mean, like, seems like the guys all kind of like each other, but like, come on.

Like, you, you don't want to go to a game thinking like, okay, like, please, please don't allow the first goal off the first shot you see. Like, you want to play with a little bit more confidence. Yeah, Kevin, this is like a Kevin Woodleyism where he loves to talk about how there is that psychological trickle-down effect of if the, like, if the entire team feels like their margin for air is so low because a shot, a shot from anywhere can go in, all of a sudden, that kind starts impacting all of the skaters decision-making in terms of what they do. And conversely, you know, the goalie doesn't trust them for whatever reason,

which isn't necessarily applicable to this situation. But then that influences that as well. So that's really fascinating to consider. All right, Julian, let's take a quick break here while we still can. And then when we come back, we'll keep talking about the flames. You're listening to the Hockey Ocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Discussing the biggest stories that matter to Vancouver sports fans, Halford, and Bruff in the morning.

Subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we're back to the Hockey League of the Ocast with Julian McKenzie. So Julian, we're talking about the defense. Let's shift over to the other side because I do think this is more concerning on my end in terms of potentially kind of deep-rooted flaws with the way this team is put together and what it means for their future. I mentioned their 31st and shooting percentage, only the ducks are worse.

I think watching them play, it's kind of a, it's a cautionary tale. sort of instructive on like how much the game has changed, uh, in terms of the importance of quality of shots you're getting and almost how like, not unimportant quantity is, but how, um, empty calorie it can be, right? And I think for me, when you watch them play, like they're, they're second in the league, I believe, in shot attempts, in shots on goal. And then you look and it's like, all right, they're actually kind of closer to middle of the pack or potentially even 20th in every single metric that measures the quality of the shots or high danger, inner slot shot, et cetera, et cetera.

And I guess my question for you here, and I'm sure you've thought about this, a bunch watching this team play night in a night out, is how much of it is personnel-based in terms of the players they have and maybe just not having the firepower that they had last year. How much of it is tactical in terms of we hear time and time again about this Daryl Sutter system and the way he wants them to play and the possession game and just shooting from wherever. and how much of it is teams adjusting to defend the flames where it's a combination of the two. They realize what they're trying to do. They realize there's no real threat to get to the inside and actually punish them repeatedly.

And so they can afford to just keep everything to the outside and box them in and just let the flames tire themselves out with all of these kind of low percentage shots from the outside. My answer to your question is yes. I think it's a competition of all three of those things. and I think teams like Minnesota have figured it out. I think teams like Colorado have also figured that out. And if that's how this team is going to go going forward, that it's going to hold them back ultimately from making a significant run. It does not help that the offensive players that they have on the team now,

like a Jonathan Huberto. We're learning more and more about the fact about how good of a perimeter player he is, but not necessarily a guy who can get chances in on the end. inside. But also Hubert, I guess they kind of focus on him a little bit. Like this is a guy who got 115 points last year and primarily off of being a past first guy while still getting 30 goals. But this is a guy who I don't think has the confidence with him offensively. Like he does not have it with regards to what he's been able to do. That being said at, I think a game like yesterday where he was able to get two assists, including the stretch pass on the Tyler Toffoli goal,

like that's going to help him go a long way. And that didn't even, sorry, go y'all, but that didn't even include the nicest pass he actually made, which was this kind of like spinorama pass that hits Nick Ritchie in stride for a glorious look, which he didn't wind up converting. But that was probably like the nicest pass that he made to me in that game. And that was actually not one of the two assists he wound up getting. Yeah, like he's still, he like he'll have moments like that where we're like, oh, yeah, right. That's why he's getting paid 10.5 million next year.

But I think there was an expectation that he, would provide at least a punch on the offensive side with regards to goals that obviously the team need to fill with Johnny Goddrault and Matthew Cachukh being gone. And I think, especially with Matthew Cichot, considering how good he is along the goal line, like they're really missing that aspect in their game because I don't, I think it's been a lot tougher. I think the team knew it was going to be a lot tougher for them to get goals throughout the year. It's just a matter of them kind of working in those dirty areas and converting on those chances when they are within

within striking distance or within those high danger chance areas but there has been plenty of games where because of the fact that like they're not able to get in between the hash marks or they're not able to convert those chances when they get them a lot of luck there and posts and all that

I think teams like a Minnesota and the defensive style that they will have it's a lot easier for them to just kind of push them to the outside or just say hey you know what just take the shot from the point and we'll have a goaltender just kind of swallow up a lot of those shots. Like I think when it gets to a, it's one thing to go up against teams that don't have that sound structure and then the flames are just trying to make it work from wherever they

could shoot. And that's when you see those games like 40 shots on the head or 50 shots on their head. But if you're a team like a, like I'm mentioning this so specifically just because they had that game with them over the weekend where they were holding on to a one nothing lead for a good chunk of that game. And because of the style that they were playing, it never really felt like the flames were going to be able to really just, you know, make a difference and shake out of that deficit that they were in. And there was like a heat map I pulled up from natural statutes during the game.

And like you're seeing the attempts more coming from the left point side and then the other points side as well, but a little lighter when it comes to shots in in between the hash ones. And like they were out shooting them. But like the at one point like the wild had doubled up on high danger chances. And that's happened quite a bit. as well. And I mean, there's been games where the flames have had high danger chances, too, and they just have not been able to convert, and they've outshot those teams there. But I think if you're, like, it has happened before where a team has recognized that the flames chances are not going to be that great, even if they're going to get it a lot, and they are capable of pushing them to the outside.

And the flames really, really could use something kind of inside presence, which made that Nick Ritchie goal all the better. I mean, he was able to just to drive to the net and make that work. If they're able to take advantage of that, maybe they have something, but they really need a guy who can make it work in front of the net. Yes, Sport Logic has them at 20th in the league in shots from the inner slot. Micah's shot chart for the team on hockey biz, you look at it and there's just distinct absence of looks from kind of that net front area all the way out to basically the face-off dots in the middle of the offensive zone.

It was interesting listening to Bruce Boudreau talking on the TSN panel during the trade deadline day about, you know, about their inability, I guess, to get to the inside and actually manufacture shots from those areas. And that's why I do think the lack of offensive pop or whatever, like part of it is finishing. But to me, the fact that they're that low in shooting percentage, I don't think is an entirely accidental because you just watch them. And it's like, there's a distinct lack of problem solving or freelancing or a kind of, you know, someone who can just break the structure, both of their own team and, of the opposition and get to those areas.

And that's something that both Kachuk and Goodrow were so good at last year and almost kind of broke free from whatever Daryl Sutter wanted them to do. And they were doing it so well, I'm just going to let them run wild. And they haven't really been able to find that at all. I think they were certainly hoping that Huberto's passing an ability to turn shots into goals would be there. And it just hasn't. And so I think that's certainly like a big part of this.

And that's much more concerning to me. And that's why when you mentioned that Coyote's game recently, I believe they were up 35 to 8 in shots on goal and they were down 3-1 at the time now. They wound up coming back, scoring a bunch and winning because they were playing Arizona coyotes. But then you watch like that Bruins game and what was it, the shots were 57 to 18 or something and they went up losing 4-3. And they're not quite at Carolina Hurricanes level in terms of like comical scorebugs

where they have like 30 plus shots more than the other team and they're losing. But they're dangerously bordering on that territory. And so it is alarming. And I do think that's something they really need to. reflect on this offseason because I don't think expecting this same sort of approach and personnel to accomplish it is going to get significantly different results. I do think there's something like legitimately flawed there. And I don't even necessarily think they need to like break the budget and like find somebody who's like five, six million dollars who they can get.

They just need to find somebody who just knows how to establish themselves on the inside. and make those chances happen. I don't know if this guy would have been the greatest example. But one player I was very intrigued about the flames being interested in ahead of the deadline if they wanted to buy. It was a guy like James Van Rimsdike who might be up there in age and might not be like the sexiest name out there. But in terms of like establishing himself as a net front presence and getting like shots on net and getting tips there, you're talking about one of the best guys at that aspect.

of the game since the lockout in 05. Like if you take all those guys from then and now and you look at all those goals he's been able to score from that slot area, from that net front area, he is among the league's best. And I think like if they were in a position where they could have been able to flood around like a third round pick, which the flames do not have for this year,

but if they were able to make that work, maybe you could put them on a top six line, you put them on your power play and you make that work. But also we saw a little bit yesterday with what Nick Ritchie was able to do in front of the net and where they've been able, they've already getting power play time. I know some people were kind of cringing at that a little bit, but if he's showing that, like,

he can work in those areas and, and kind of make it work in front of the net, like, that could be something that goes toward solving that problem, but you're right, right. Like, I think for the flames next year, if they want to, I see this, why I don't know. Once again, we need to, I think we need to aim higher and be more ambitious.

Like, I understand it could be a short term shot in the arm. I absolutely agree. Yeah, but that also ties back. to our earlier point about the salary of the cap structure with this team. The flames absolutely should be aiming higher, but they might need to move some chairs around

in order to be that ambitious. They might have to sacrifice from their own pool and be like, okay, like, we have no hand to fit in under five bill. Does that mean we can get a guy who can work in the interior for us? Like, something like that should work. My ultimate point is just, yes, the flames

need to make that work, but also it also wouldn't surprise me if they tried to get that on the cheap as well. Yeah, I think it's in California. Like Lindholm's Borlaugacazem had 42 inner slot shots this year in 62 games. I don't have last year's number handy. I imagine it's probably twice that, right? And then that kind of speaks to the position he was in certainly on that line,

but also the personnel they had that were able to consistently cook up looks for him from there. Let's quickly circle back to Hubert O' here. I didn't want to just kind of gloss over that because in watching that game against wild on Saturday and a hockey net in Canada in preparation for this. There was a sequence in like kind of halfway through the first period, I believe, of that game that just perfectly encapsulated everything that's gone wrong for him this year and why I still have hope that there's something salvageable here that it's not just a matter of, oh my God, there's going to be eight more years of this because there's a sequence, they're going in on a three on two,

and Huberto is in the middle lane, so he's got the puck. And his natural predisposition is a passer, right? Like he wants to make plays for others. But he has so much space where he could basically step in, take another couple steps, and at least pose some sort of a threat that I leave, oh, hey, guys, look, I could shoot. Someone better come, someone better come try to stop me, or at least the goalie better face me. And instead, he's just like telegraphing the entire time. He's looking to his right. He winds up forcing this pass to Nazan Khadri, who's a left shot coming down the right wing. And Kadri has to, like, play it on his backhand because it's such an awkward pass. and I don't even know if they wind up getting a shot off

or if they do it's like a low quality one that the wild were able to quickly stop and I like the idea right because we're talking about how this team's offensive approach is so simplistic and like get an offensive zone and shoot and Hubert O is one guy who breaks through that structure with his creativity and his freelancing

but the execution has completely fallen apart whether it's been an adjustment like playing with new players whether it's been timing whether it's not being on the same page I don't know what's going on but you watch that and it's like this isn't the player that I watched in Florida making these passes. And I don't think he suddenly lost the ability to do that.

He's still in the positions to do so. The execution just has been completely off. And so I wonder if that's something that over time can eventually kind of be regained at least to some form that he had previously. And that would obviously be a huge boon for this team. And I think they kind of have to hope that that's going to happen because otherwise it would be a real disaster. I feel that play has everything to do with.

with the lack of confidence in his shot. And he's kind of mentioned that throughout the year, even like making little jokes to himself saying like, oh yeah, you guys know I don't have a lot of confidence with my shot. I think of another stretch of play that happened days earlier

against the Boston Bruins than overtime where he's coming up the ice on a two-on-one-one. And Linus Almark, who's in net, a couple moments earlier, loses his stick. And his stick is in the corner, like to his right and he can't get to it because Jonathan Huberto and Andrew Mangupani are

calming up the ice but there's a defenseman in front of him at least for saving and grace. Again, Linus Almorke does not have his stick. John and Huberto could probably just take a shot, you know, at least not stick side or wherever he would have gotten it and could probably beat him. Like he has that space he could do it. Huberto instead makes this pass to try to get it to Monterepani so he could beat it. But the defenseman pokes at the puck and turns it into a change of possession and the Bruins get it going the other way. I remember going to Huberto after that game

and be like, well, what did you see on that play? Like, did you know, like, did you know that Allmark didn't have his stick? He did not realize in that moment that Linus Allmark did not have his stick. Like, I think for a guy, if he was at his most confident, he probably takes that shot himself and you probably don't blame him because you're like, well, he doesn't have his stick. He's completely frazzled in the net right now and he's trying to make it work. Like, yeah, you try to make it work. but that is John Hithin Uberto does not look like a player to me who is at his most confident and can you blame him with the way his stats look right now a guy who's known throughout most of this year he has yet to make

a significant impact at the standard that he knows he's capable of playing at the very least for him like he's trying to help a guy like Jacques-Peltier get more custom to living the NHL life but you have the two Quebecers kind of bonding they're playing on the same line for a time but yeah when you have a lot of people look at you to be this gifted offensive player. You have the A on your sweater as well. And the point totals you're pointing up are well below what a lot of people expected. You know, I still think the system is not a perfect fit for him.

But also for Jonathan, like, I think confidence has everything to do with why he'll have a stretch like what he did it in Boston or what he did against Minnesota the other night. I totally like you look at the replay. You think, well, at least if he takes the shot where he's at. like you can't fault him for that. But him making this awkward pass on the right, you're like, that's not the move to do. Well, his shot rate has dropped, I have this for you, from 8.6 to 5.7 shots on goal per hour played,

and that puts him at 282nd out of 350 qualified forwards. And he's always going to be a pass first player, right? But even if you compare it to last year, even his career norms, which are in the sevens, at least you have to instill some sort of idea in the back of the defender's mind and the goalie's mind that you could shoot if they leave you that way. open, right? Like at least some threat needs to be there. And there's something ironic about

for a team that is shooting too much from bad areas, he's one player that is kind of not doing so from good areas. And that speaks to their confidence, certainly. And the reason why I say it's fixable is sometimes when you watch players who are declining and who are entering a different stage of their careers, their shot rates dip. And it's because they slow down a little bit. and all of a sudden they can't get to those same areas they once used to, and the game becomes more difficult for them, and so they just can't get the shot off. That's not really what I'm seeing from this.

I don't know if you could disagree with that, but he's in those areas. He has time and space. He has the looks. It's just a matter of him being unwilling to do so. And sometimes you can get too far gone in the sense where it snowballs and you get to a point where your confidence is show shot that it's really tough to ever get back.

But he is such a sustained track record of success in this league that I find it hard to believe that this is just the new, norm for him, right? So I don't know if he's ever going to be the 115 point player that he was last year where everything went right for him, but he's also not a 56 point player, which is what he's pacing at this season. So even some middle ground there would obviously represent an entirely different scenario for this flames team who's so desperate for goals wherever they can get him. Like if John and he were to play like an 80 point player, that's at least a few more wins. That's at least a few more goals. That's maybe a few more assists, probably. But like, that's a player that like, I think a lot of people

like, oh, okay, all right, we get it. Like, he's not going to be 115 points every year, but still a high quality player, an offensive driver, someone who's able to make things happen. But I think just the fact that his shot, just for him, he just doesn't trust it the way that he should. I think there are so many instances when he's trying to make plays work in the offensive zone, the way defenses play him, and he gets double teamed or just puts himself in a corner and he can't really get out of it. Like, it's a bit of a tougher situation for him when he doesn't have a, a lot of space on the ice and maybe some of those linemates he needs to play with need to create some more of that space for him. I think it's just a tough situation for him where

he's in a new city, he's trying to adjust to things and is not working. And there is that grace period I get some people get, but 60-something games in and everybody's not playing all that well, the spotlight burns a lot brighter on you. And I think that's the case for a guy like Jonathan the newbedo right now yeah yeah i think it's i mean based on the expectations and what they need from i think i think it's fair to be critical his performance i don't think it's like it's knocking a guy when he's down like he needs to be better than this um okay i i i had so many other talking points that i wanted to hit with you about sutter and the system and the relationship with the players and all that we're gonna have to save it for another day though because we uh we're out of time here so that's a

that's a good cue for us to bring you back in before the season ends and i'm gonna i'm gonna hold us to that. But for now, let the listeners know where they can check you out and plug some stuff on the way out. J.K.A. McKenzie is my Twitter handle. I am taking questions for the upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag for the athletic. So if you subscribe to the website, hit on my profile, hit up the Calgary Flame site, and then you'll see the mailbag call out and send out some questions there. I subscribe to the athletic hockey show, which I do every Monday with Ian Mendez. subscribe to the Chris Johnson show.

We just did an episode on Monday. We were just talking about post-trade deadline stuff and also getting him to do some fun questions as well. His own time with Yahoo Sports. We have a brand new episode dropping today being Tuesday. So be on the lookout for that as well. And yeah, I'm working on a few things and just look out for all that sweet, sweet content from the athletic, man.

I'm working hard, man. I love it. All right, Julian. and we'll keep up the great work. We're going to have you back on soon for the listeners. They enjoy this conversation. They can help us out by smashing that five-star button wherever they listen to PDOCAST.

And we'll be back tomorrow with more of the Hockey PDOCast, as always streaming on the SportsNedad Radio Network.