The Hockey PDOcast - Young Stars Wanting Out, Islanders Playing Style, and Avs 2nd Line Centers

Episode Date: January 17, 2023

The Score's John Matisz joins Dimitri to talk about young stars who could potentially want out in the near future, the different way the Islanders are playing this season, and second-line center targets for the Avalanche This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty.  The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey Pediocast with your host, Dmitri Philippopovin. Welcome to the Hockey Pedioc guest. My name is Amitra Filippovich and joining me on this Tuesday edition of the show. It's my good buddy, John Mattis. John, what's going on in? Not a whole lot, Dimitri. We're sort of in that period right before the All-Star break where I wouldn't say it's like dog days,

but, you know, the playoff races aren't quite. as thick or as urgent as they will be in a month or two. And we're kind of past all that early season stuff. So it's a good time to analyze big picture, that's for sure. Well, and just because of the unique sort of considerations with the cap and how tight up against it, everyone is and how little flexibility there is, and teams are very happy to tell you all about that as an excuse for why they're not doing anything. I think we're going to see a lot of moves at the trade deadline,

but it's going to be like the day before and the day of it's not going to be and as I say that hopefully there will be a trade here that that proves me wrong and breaks soon but I really think it's going to be a lot of like I don't know we'll see and then it'll all kind of just like the plug gates it open and all happen which is great it'll be a great week but unfortunately for us we kind of have to wait till then and come up with content in the meantime to sort of fill the time that's what we're here for right that's what we're here for yeah well so we're going to do uh we're going to do a mailbag today uh which is exciting I wish we were going to do this initially on Monday and it would have been Mattis's mailbag Monday,

which would have been a whole great alliteration, but we'll settle for a Tuesday edition. So the questions keep coming in. I guarantee we get the most thoughtful questions out of any hockey show out there. I'm confident in saying that, and that's not surprising because we clearly have the coolest and smartest guests and listeners in the business.

I'm amazed. I've only done this my second mailbag with you, but like the amount of in-depth questions and ones that are hinting like, hey, there's a deep discussion here versus like something to surface level where we'll move on in five minutes. Like these people want us to dig in. So yeah, I'm just to the PDO listener. You can tell they've given it thought themselves and they just want us to talk about it to either confirm what they've been thinking or or make them think about it from a different angle. Sometimes I get questions where I'm like, all right, I'm going to have to like, I'm going to put this in the back burner for a couple weeks and give it more thought.

And then once that time comes, I'll be able to answer it. But I can't even 10 minutes right now. I won't do it justice. So let's get into it and let's see how many we can rattle through. This is a good one of us to start with. So Matea asks, with Matthew Kichuk's trade last summer, you'd have to think other unhappy young stars on bridge deals

have thoughts of forcing a similar move. Can you think of any other candidates? So this is a really interesting question because this is obviously something that's been happening in the NBA for years now. It's a bit more of a newer phenomenon in the NHL. It's kind of this concept of quote-unquote pre-agency, right? it's like the player isn't necessarily a free agent yet, but they're forcing the issue because they're good enough and they have the leverage and because of the timing where it's generally

going to be the case where it's an RFA who has a pretty big qualifying offer coming up that'll walk them right done restricted free agency. And so at that point, the team that's holding them risks losing them for essentially nothing or having to trade them last minute for 50 cents of the dollar. So do you have any names off the top of your head that you think are Not necessarily maybe even there yet, but are starting to take some steps down the path, let's say, of potential discontent or potential, all right, let's keep an eye on this because if things go wrong over the next six months to a year, this could really come to an head. Well, the first thing I'll say is that it's hard to like properly speculate about this because

we don't know what's going on behind closed doors in terms of like there might be 20 unhappy RFs out there, but we put on a good phase. Yeah. But that that sort of disclaimer or that qualifier that the question included of sort of a disgruntled star or a star that wants to get out immediately took me to Pierrotin du Bois. Just because there's been a lot of smoke around him

wanting to go to the Canadians, I believe his agent went as far to say that you know, he wants to play in Montreal at some point. And Dubois has done nothing to sort of put out that fight. So he clearly has his eye on somewhere else, whether that's Montreal or elsewhere. So he certainly jumps off the page, especially because he's having a career year, 49 points and 44 games. And also, you know, he has good two-way effects.

He's, you know, has those physical tools that GMs drool over. He can shoot and scores out that dual threat going on. So there's a lot going on there as far as why it's. team would be attracted to acquiring him. And obviously there's some sort of motivation from his part. He's not a UFA until 2024. So he's got one more year as an RFA. And his qualifying offer is $6 million.

So that's certainly digestible. I find he's a bit of a frustrating player. I don't know about you, Dmitri, but at his best, his high end is like, you know, an elite number one center. But I don't know. we see it as consistently as true number one centers. I feel like you see his best game.

I'm just going to throw a number out there, but like a third of the time versus maybe that really true number one is like two thirds of a time of the time. And you know, we saw that a little bit in Columbus, right? John Torrella and him really butted heads over a couple of shifts where he

seemed to not be putting in the effort. And there's just been other instances when I've watched him and been wanting more. But like I said, him at his best is a pretty dominant force, a new age, a modern power forward. So I see some

interest there as far as where my heads at and how he fits into this question. So the Canadians that's an obvious answer where he might land. I mean, the Canadians themselves have to be interested in him, right? It takes two to tango. Well, I also see the Kings and the Rangers as these

other big markets as potential spots especially given where both those franchises are as far as building up and contending. Like Dubois would be a really good piece to throw in there. Yeah, I thought when he became available in Columbus that the Kings were a really interesting landing spot because they obviously had the pieces to facilitate a trade like that. And he'd be a nice sort of bridge in the sense that while Copatar in particular, but also let's throw Dowdy in there are still there and making big money,

he can come in and immediately help them. but he's also young enough where you can almost kind of have your cake needed to in the sense that he'll eventually take more responsibility and sort of become the guy, especially down the middle from Copatar, right? And this was before they signed Philip Dono and before a lot of things have happened, but I still think it certainly applies. I mean, I get what you're saying in the frustration. I've sort of conceded that back and it's like, it is what it is that you're not going to get it necessarily every single night since the start of last year from my money he's been remarkably good.

And, you know, as you said, the series on pace for 37 goals, 91 points. He's 14th in the league and high danger chances generated. He just lives around the net. Always involved, like sometimes to a frustrating degree, right? Like physically where he can maybe get involved in like dumb post whistle stuff and penalties and put himself in harm's way in terms of not being able to be on the ice and help contribute. But that's sort of what you get with the pure Luke Dubois experience.

Like it is what it is. I still think it's such a net positive. And he's a fantastic player. And you're right, he has, he's telegraphed this, right? Like he's playing on a one year, $6 million deal. He's made his intentions, I think, pretty clear at this point. Now, the Jets are playing really well this year. And you wrote a big thing on Kyle Connor.

We can talk about him later as well if we have time, but just tying into this conversation, the Jets having such a, you know, a glass half-full season so far in terms of, I think even the most optimistic outlook wouldn't have expected this from them, with Rick Bone is coming in. and everything coming together. Now they're getting healthy as well. Nick Keeler's back producing. So this is like a team that's playing really well. And I don't think that's necessarily

ultimately going to change the trajectory in terms of changing his own long term outlook reviews or where he wants to get himself to. But I think it does change the conversation from from our perspective as the media or from even the team's perspective in terms of their timeline. Because it's like, well, you can kind of justify playing out this season and then revisiting in the audience. season again since you do have that time, as opposed to if things have gone out the rails and they were struggling, I think right now we'll be talking about like, okay, where's Pierre-Luctawa going this trade deadline? Yeah, I was thinking of it more as an off-season, yes, move.

And who knows, right? Like, these things change. We could be talking about him in the off-season going, oh, he just signed a long-term deal with Winnipe because they had this fabulous playoff run. You know, he realized he loves the city, loves the room, etc. So it is a bit of an asterisk situation where the Jets are just on fire. I mean, they lead the Western Conference right now. So they're not trading Dubois, especially as a team that, I don't know about you,

Dmitri, but I've always found like the Jets on paper always coming into the season, you go, you know, there's no reason with that top six with Hullabuck, etc. They shouldn't contend. But then there always seems to be something that goes wrong. It's an injury. It's, you know, shite flee. and Eeler's not playing well when Connor is or vice versa or Blake Wheeler's on a cold street. But I feel like this year everyone's more or less dialed in.

So it's a kind of a special year for Winnipeg, at least through the first half. We'll see how it all unfolds. And the bonus effect is real. So Dubois came to mind immediately, but it might not be that immediate change that that the question is maybe asking for. Well, the interesting thing with him is I'm looking at it right now. So he is in his sixth season, right? So yeah, he's got one more year.

He can basically take that qualifying offer, I believe, that'll walk him right to UFA, which is kind of what we outlined as the candidates for this question. And he's going to be on the younger end of things as well once he hits that point, right? Because he turns 25 in June, I believe. So, like, by the following summer, he's going to be freshly turned 26 up for a new mega deal, which is great because that's kind of the time that you want to be buying as opposed to when you get at that awkward, like 28, 29-year-old range. and all of a sudden you're like, all right, how many good productive years am I actually getting?

I think he's going to be a hot commodity from a, all right, let's get this guy signed to an 28-year deal because it's not going to take him until he's 36 or 37. It'll be a much more kind of reasonable age range for him. Absolutely. Who's your name you want to? Well, I had to go local here. Alias Patterson. I mean, I think it's almost as obvious of a candidate as pure Luke Dubois.

He hasn't necessarily been as public or his agent hasn't been as public in terms of, of telegraping those intentions, but with everything that's going on with the Canucks right now, I think it's worth bringing up. He makes $7.35 million next year. 10.25 million is going to be an actual salary because it was backloaded. And then he's an RFA in the summer of 2024. And at that point, he can basically, if he doesn't like what he's seeing, he can take an $8.8.8 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in July 2025. And the reason why I bring this up is, I don't know if you've noticed this, but in his Hockey Night and Canada hits, in his most recent 32 thoughts, Elliot Friedman has made a point of going out of his way

to reference or cite Alas Patterson as the only untouchable that the Canucks have, distinguishing him from Quinn Hughes, who he's saying they're clearly not in a rush to trade, but if you come at them with a godfather offer, we'll at least think about or considerate, whereas Las Patterson is off the tape. And I don't, Elliot's a smart man. I don't think that is coming by accident. I think it's a clear and distinguished messaging coming from the team, pushing the agenda of,

and I think wanting to make it kind of know and put it out there, Brise Patterson to hear that like we desperately want you to stay, right? I think that's purely it because it's that's coming to question in the past when he was up for this RFA deal that he's currently on right now. I was like, what's this guy worth? he's struggling with the wrist. We've got other players here. Is he going to be the true number one and leader?

And this year he's taken his game to such a high level where I really do believe, like, I've said this before, if the organization wasn't in such shambles and they were winning, I think he'd be right there with Connor McDavid and Jack Hughes as like the third guy on my MVP finalist ballot. Now because they're going to finish like 26th in the league or something, he won't sniff that. But watching him play the effect he has on everyone he'd,

plays with and how meaningfully and consistently he can create for others and make everyone around him better. And then statistically, you look and it's like he's tied with McDavid Robertson, Crosby and Page Thompson and 5-1-5 scoring. He's on pace with 36 goals and 104 points, despite remarkably not having a single power play goal yet, which was like a big part of his offensive arsenal in the past. Right? Now he's got a bunch of power play assists and he's had a few where he was the one shooting it and it got tipped in or deflected in right before he went in and all counts the same, but he technically doesn't have a single power play goal yet. And he's still getting his. With him on the ice, they're up 39 to 27, 515. Without him on the ice, they're down

82 to 59. Like, they're getting clobbered. They have nothing without him, regardless of, like, he's so good, and J.T. Miller has struggled so much that the plan, and it's been the correct plan by Rousse Bougault has been, all right, we need to move J.T. Miller off center and put him on Pedersen's wing because he's kind of the only player that can try to, like, resuscitate the situation in a way. And so I, he's been seen. so good and the team has been such a mess that I think it's it's it's summon a monitor like we've heard some lumblings come out about discontent and stuff like that I still ultimately think like once they trade Bo Horvat he's going to be the captain they're going to give back up the brinkstruck

and give him all of the money and it'll work itself out it'll be fine so I don't think we need to be pressing the panic meter yet but it's it's it's some in a monitor just because of all the things that I cited there yeah I think I'm on the side of sort of flagging Elias Pedersen has a possibility here, but also you alluded to it, just the whirlwind or the mess or the tornado that's in Vancouver right now. It's very difficult to figure out what exactly the plan is. As we record this, we're whatever, 24 hours or so from Jim Rutherford giving a pretty perplexing press conference where he contradicts himself constantly. And the main message, the main message was we're going to retool and not rebuild. but then in the next breath he kind of says the opposite.

So I don't entirely know what to think of Pedersen, let alone every player on the Canucks and their future because put Bruce Boudreau in his situation, which is outrageous, but players only, I don't know what they're trying to do and who they want to hold hostage. Yeah, and the reason why I bring him up as well is tying it back to the Matthew Kachuk scenario. Now, the team is an entirely different situation because the flames are really good last year.

And the reason why I bring that up, though, is because if you're the Canucks and he's eligible for his extension this summer, if you start getting the sense that there is an issue, like, you have to start exploring it. Like, it would be a disaster not to as good as he is. As everything I just mentioned, I think he's been a legitimate superstar and I would be more than have to. happy to build my entire organization around him for the next eight years. You can't, like, I don't think this is a situation that's going to get better from a team perspective anytime soon. And so you can't enter this summer being like, well, let's play out 2023, 2024, and hopefully he'll be happier and things will get better because I don't think they will. I think this is going to be a long road. And so if he does not want to sign up for that and you get the sense of that,

I don't think it's a type of thing that those feelings are going to change over time in a quick enough manner. And so each day the passes from that point, it's like a leverage seesaw, right? Each day the passes, it slightly tilts more in his favor or away from the team's favor in terms of what they could get back, how much power they have in the matter. And so this summer, like, they really need to do a lot of homework and a lot of, a lot of soul searching and a lot of asking hard questions. And it's a shame to get to that point.

I think it's the reality of the matter. Well, in for the Patterson's perspective, I think if Kachuk hadn't done what he did with Calgary, and it seemed to be in a professional manner, you know, from what's been reported, he went to True Living and said, hey, listen, I want to help you guys get a good package for me because I'm not going to sign your long term.

So Petterferson looks at that and sees a template, I think that this summer it would make sense if nothing drastic has changed to go that similar route and take a page out of Kachuk's book, whereas previously, obviously players have requested trades in the past, but the way Kachuk did it and the result of him getting where he wants, getting that massive deal,

I'm sure Pedersen's looking at that as a potential playbook. And if you're the Kinnux, he's your best player, your biggest piece. If you are serious about flipping this roster over, especially if Pedersen isn't on board, you got to get the best return possible for your best player. Like that, it's just a no-brainer.

Yeah, it's just scary to think because you mentioned that Rutherford press conference. Speaking of messaging, like, it was a lot of, we're going to try to take a shortcut here. And anyway, these press conferences always, you know, take it with a grain of assault because you're not necessarily, things can change, but also there's no real reason for any GM or vice president of hockey ops to come out and actually say what they're going to do. But everything, the way this organization has acted for years now, would lead you to believe that they don't really want to get bad for years, even though they have been really bad for years, but like intentionally, and they want to fast track this thing. And I don't really know how you do so by trading away your best player.

So it's a complicating factor, certainly, but it's a lot of stuff to sort through. And I think he's an obvious one. The other guy that I had was, um, was Marty Naches, not because of anything this season. I had to kind of like, he's the most recent one from this past summer for me. Now, he just didn't really have any leverage because of how poorly his season had got individually and how far away he was from unrestricted free agency to like, you know, force his hand. And so he took a two-year deal at $3 million per and decided, I'm going to play my way out of this in terms of I'm going to play really well and raise my value.

And he has certainly done that so far this year. And, uh, and so that's some of some of the same. to watch for it because there was clear discontent there. And I'm not sure if it's been worked out and sorted. I'm sure the team playing well in him producing and playing a bigger role helps all parties involved. But he's someone that could have been had this summer and wanted out. And teams are smart enough to unfortunately identify that as a thing to do. Well, and obviously, I would be very surprised if the Hurricanes traded in the mid-season. So maybe this doesn't line up as great as it seemed to for the first.

second I started thinking about this, but one guy that came to mind with this question is Tyler Bertuzi. He's a pending UFA, so he's not exactly this RFA that's knocking on the GM's door asking to get out. But he sure seems to be the odd man out there in Detroit as far as this core rising together and, you know, whether it's Sider, Raymond, you know, Kasa who's coming down the pipe and there's, you know, a whole slew of guys, Ben Chirot. Yeah, exactly. Ben Chirot. He just, and, and, you know, part of it is injuries, right? Like, he just hasn't been on the ice as much as he'd like to.

But the production is down. You know, he's turning 28 in February. So I wonder if, even if the Red Wings are close to the playoffs by the deadline, if he's a guy that they consider moving. And who knows, maybe there's a long-term deal set up as part of that transaction with another team. And for some reason, the hurricanes, the reason why I thought of it with NACES is, The Hurricanes were a team that I thought he might fit in with as far as having that finishing ability, the tenacious forechecking. And let's face it, like, whether it's Brent Burns or Dougie Hamilton or these quote-unquote different personalities, they seem to do perfectly fine in Carolina.

They seem to welcome it. And I don't know Tyler Breducci's he super well, but he doesn't seem to be maybe right down the middle of the typical hockey player. So I wonder if there's a fit there. And I was also thinking the flyers might be in terms of playing style interested and the oilers who need depth scoring. So those are all sort of teams in different stages and whatnot. And like I said, Bertuzzi is a pending UFA, not RFA. But given his age and being out with injuries lately, he hasn't been on the ice as much as a typical pending UFA. Yeah, he's got whatever six, seven weeks here.

to stay on the ice and produce and prove that he can be a healthy contributor for the rest of the season, there will be significant interest, and he's clearly not in Detroit's long-term plans. I mean, just go back to when they sign into this two-year deal he was on. It was a very like, all right, let's just get this done, then we'll figure it out in two years. And Toronto was a team that I've heard brought up quite a bit in terms of trying to get a bit more of that sort of physical, annoying to play against element while still actually having a productive winger, which he is in terms of offensively, so that makes sense. A team that I'm surprised we haven't heard enough about is the Tampa Bay Lightning, because he makes 4.75, the Red Wings can retain

that. There's a clear connection there, obviously, between Steve Eiserman and the Tampa Bay Lightning, and I think they'd prefer they're limited in terms of future resources that they can put together to entice any sort of trade. I think they'd generally prefer what they've done in the past, what they did with Brandon Hagle, what they did with Barkley Goodrow, what they did with Blake Coleman, get that extra year of cost-controlled certainty so that it's not just one kick at the can, and that doesn't apply here with Bertuzi. I don't think it would come with any sort of extension because they just don't have the means to facilitate that. But he would clearly be a very useful player at a very cheap price at that retained salary that would fit right in.

And so I'm, you know, I'd be curious to see that as a fit as well. But yeah, there's going to be a lot of interest. And there's a lot of UFAs. It doesn't apply to this question, of course, but you're right in terms of kind of that telegraphing component of it. Absolutely. And yeah, you make a really good point about the lightning. They've done that.

Let's get the rental plus a year or two type of player in the past. But they're just, I think they're running out of picks and prospects to make those packages work, right? So this might be the year that they do the typical thing. which is get a rental. And I like that. I like that fit with Bertuzi. All right. Wow, we got through one question here in the first half.

This is a good pace that we're going on. But you know what? That was exactly what we're talking about. The listeners come through with a really thought-provoking question. And there's a lot of elements to parse through and unpack. So that was a fun one. We're going to take a break here, John. And then when we come back, we're going to rattle through some more questions at hopefully

slightly quicker pace. So looking forward to that. You're listening. Hockey-Pediocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the Hockeypedio cast with John Mattis taking your listener questions. John, next one comes from Benjamin. Benjamin asks, most the islanders, defenseman's underlying numbers have fallen off this season by the looks of it. Is that coaching, regression, or some other weirdness going on?

So you wrote recently about the Islanders, so I thought this would be a good one for us to tackle because you could provide some insight on based on what you wrote about them. Sure, yeah, I talked to Thomas Hickey, who recently played for the Islanders under Trots and has now transitioned into broadcast and he's quite good at a kind of a breakout star in the broadcasting role this year. And the reason I wanted to talk to him was, one, the connection to Trots and knowing the exact ins and outs of his system. And then also he's seeing it play out with Lane Lambert this year. And the major takeaway from our conversation was that, you know, Labert's still on a more conservative side as far as how his teams play, how structured they are. But compared to Gary Trots, who is thought as conservative as they get,

it's been a fairly big difference. And the main component there is that the defensemen are actually allowed to do stuff. They're actually allowed to touch the buck. They're allowed to go after that puck on the wall, that free, that free, talk of that 50-50 battle in the offensive zone. They're allowed to initiate a rush. They're allowed to join a rush coming out of the defensive zone on the breakout. So as simple as that sounds and as, you know, average as that sounds in the modern NHL when everything's offense, offense, offense, it's made a huge difference as far as how this team looks when you watch

them. And then the numbers reflect that I think generally, and I'm curious for your perspective on this, Dimitri, but I think generally the riskier you play as a defenseman, the more, I guess, impact on your, say, your expected goals might be in a negative sense if you don't have a bunch of forces like a Kail McCar and, you know, Sam Gerard or Devon Taves on Colorado, if you have the personnel that the Islanders have and you try to play more uptempo, more aggressive from your back end. I think that's going to lead to some uneven results with the underlying numbers.

So that's what jumped out to me is just Lambert's actually giving these guys like Noah Dobson, who's just a fantastic all-around defender already at his age, his young age. He's given them a leash, a longer leash. And the awkward thing, I guess, you could say, is that

the roster didn't really turn over from Trots to Lambert. So it was designed for Trots in his conservative system. And then now you've got Lambert trying to switch things up. But I feel like he doesn't have the horses, both on the back end and at forward. There's just not enough versatility there, creativity beyond a few guys like Dobson, you know, Barzell and, and, you know, Nelson and whatnot. So it's a bit of a transition. And I don't know if it's going perfectly, but it's certainly not going poorly as they're just right around.

the wild card there. Yeah, I think it was a necessary adjustment by Lay Lambert. Yes, to get them, you know, playing, taking more risks and trying to buying creative ways to manufacture offense where they can and being willing to live with that tradeoff. Like you mentioned on the impact on underlying numbers, going from 50-50 maybe to 45, 55, but on those 45, hoping that you can make more out of them, right? And so I think it's been a net positive impact, right? You look at it.

They are up to 11th and 5-1-5 scoring as a team. You mentioned the impact on defensemen. Last year, they had 32 goals total from their defensemen. This year they're already up to 27 from their blue liners in just 45 games. We should say all this is happening. Adam Pelick has been out of the lineup since, like, early December as well, and he's their best defenseman. But they're also up from 26th in what I like to use as 5-on-5 pace,

which is just shot attempts for and against, and just to show kind of how much the game is what's happening out there. They're up from 26 to 10th this year as well. That's significant. Which shows that they are willing to take more risk. Sometimes it can lead to worst defensive numbers. But here's the thing. Dea dea Sorokin, it doesn't matter.

Like, you should be taking more risks than exposing them to, he doesn't need to be sheltered in a goalie-friendly environment because he's one of the three best goalies in the league. And he should be probably the Vesna favorite so far this season. I'm curious if you have the numbers handy for how many inner sloth shots he's faced, but just based on unnatural stat trick, he is up to 31 goal save above expected in 34 games. Now to put that into context. Igor Shosturkin last year had 37 goal save above expected in 53 games.

he's got a 925 say percentage overall 933 at 515 he's been simply sensational and so you can expose him to that type of environment and so if you're getting more offensively and you're just fine in terms of what you're giving up because he's stopping everything i think they found a nice balance now listen like dom has them at 91.4 points as his projection around 30% playoff odds that tells me a lot more about the metro division in the state of it than it does anything bad about the new york islanders it is so jam-packed there. And the realistic, the reality of it is that between them, the capitals, the penguins, and if you want to throw in like the Panthers and even the Sabres, if they get hot, although they'll come back down Earth a little bit,

there's two playoff spots available, two wildcard spots available for all those teams. And so it's going to be an absolute mess. There's going to be a team that finishes with like 94 points, I think, that doesn't make the playoffs. And that's going to suck for them. where if they just did the 16 best teams in the league, they would have made it otherwise, but that's what we're working with right now. And so that very well could be the Islanders, but I still think it's,

if you take a step back and you look at it, like, compared to what a mess last year was, starting the year on the road with all those games, kind of being the guinea pig for COVID protocols in terms of not having an NHL roster in the league just being like, all right, you side stuff to play, and then other teams getting it, and then the league stepping in and be like, all right, this has gone too far, and then them just being penalized as a result of being the first one to incur it, it's been a massively massive improvement in year one or late in Lambert. And I'm curious to see, as you mentioned, as we move forward, if they actually go this route, whether they give him some

more horses to play this way and whether they shift the image of the roster, if that happens, they're clearly, it's going to be better suited, they're going to get better results. And so, yeah, I think, I think it's been encouraging first 45 games under Lane Lambert here. Yeah, I think that's fair And not only do they have Sorokin And I'll throw some numbers at you in a second But they also have Barlamov Who's, I don't know, he put them on

Or you look around the league He's probably a starter on half the league A third of the league Like he's arguably the best backup in the league So they're going to live and die by their goalies Like I think that's That's probably fair to say Especially as they learn this new way to play

And as we both mentioned deal with this discrepancy between the roster, the personnel, the skill sets, and this more open-ended type of environment. As for Sorokin, you mentioned, you know, some different statistics. So Sport Logic has him third behind Saros and Allmark in goals saved above expected per 60. So that's the Vesna conversation basically right there. You throw a hellabuck in there. But out of starters, he has the highest, or sorry, second highest, quality start percentage. So in 67.7% of his starts,

he's giving his team a really good chance to win. That's the gist of that stat. And then he's also, he's stolen four games. And again, this is one of those stats where there's, you know, sort of an equation involved in it. But four out of 31 steals,

that's pretty good at 12.9%. What are the slosh shots at? Do you have that? Yeah, let's see here. Slot shots, he is like, let's see, 11th with 389 slot shots in 33 games. So you've got some usual suspects in front of them, Vamalka, Gibson, Saros, and then some other guys. But he's fairly high. I mean, that's the whole league.

He's 11th out of, you know, whatever, 32 starters. Well, because the reason why I was going to bring that up was they've clearly, you know, part of this has been like two years. years ago, they were the gold standard in the league in terms of eliminating everything in front of the net and basically like squeezing the middle of the ice as well and just forcing good to live along the boards. And this year, just because of the way they've opened it up, it's tougher to do that. And so they're giving up more from those areas. And like natural statrick, for example, has the only teams giving up a higher rate of high

danger chances against as the ducks, the Canucks, the Canadians, the coyotes, and the flyers. And those are like the five worst teams in the league. If you want to throw Columbus in there as into Chicago, Chargo in there as well? Like that's telling to me because I still see people just refusing to change their priors in the sense that it's like we've become accustomed to thinking about the Islanders as being this certain team, the profile is a certain way. And so we're just going to keep talking about them as that. And they're not that. Like I just said, they're like a bottom 10 defensive team. They're 11th in the league in 5-on-5 scoring.

Like this is a different version of. the New York Islanders and for some reason it still hasn't fully caught on yet. So I just wanted that's what kind of why I wanted to talk about this question in particular. Yeah, and I'm glad you brought up the high danger because when I look at inner slot shots, which is different than

slot shots, slot shots is obviously a bigger area on the ice, but inner slot is essentially like the most high percentage shots possible right in front of the goalie. Sorokan has faced the fifth most and it goes the ducks are the worse, the coyotes, the Canadians, the predators, and then the islanders.

So, and this is like, you know, raw numbers. Yes. So it's, it's been tough for Sorokin and Varlamov when he's, when he's in the crease as well as far as this change. But they've lived up to up to it so far. They've been able to make up for that difference. And we'll see if it continues because, I don't know, I just, I just look at the roster. And I see a fringe playoff team, but I also see a team relying too much on a. on their goalie

was always a very dicey way to operate. Yeah. Yeah. That's fair. Okay. Next question. Booch here asks, suggestions or options for the abs at second center.

Looks like this need needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. Now, I received this question prior to the weekend. Since then, they just gave the senators and the Red Wings a good old-fashioned beating. They scored 20. In those two games, they scored 12 straight goals

before finally conceding a goal to the Red Wings yesterday afternoon. And just as importantly, they just got Big Val Matushkin back. And with him in the lineup this year, the abs are 11, 3 and 2 as their record, and he's just so valuable. He allows them, not only is a fantastic player,

but he allows them, he unlock so much for them up front where they can now get much more creative with their combinations, right? Like, you look how the way they're using them now, they've got him and Ranton on the second line, and it allows them to spread that out. McKinn's playing with,

with Lekinen and Evan Rodriguez, and they're totally fine. McKinnon's absolutely crushing it with those guys. And so it allows everything to fall into place that unlock so much for them. And it seems crazy to say this about a guy who, you know, he got that big contract this past off season. He also was their best player in the Stanley Cup final for my money.

But on a team that has, all of these stars, Rantan is having an unbelievable season. McKinnon's been awesome. McCar, it's kind of everyone's like, oh, what's wrong with Gil McCar? And meanwhile, he's going to score 25, 30 goals and have 100 points. Valenchuque is so important for that. Like, he might be their most important player just because of what he allows them to do in that regard and letting everything else fall into place.

And so with him back now, that's huge. And I'm really curious to see how they play from here on out over the next couple weeks. I think that's going to dictate how aggressive they get. But I'm kind of curious for your take in terms of guys you think would make sense for them and kind of how they should be approaching that. Well, I think Horvad is the one that really comes to mind. And I say this with some skepticism as far as making it work because there's virtually no caps based on the avalanche's books.

And obviously Horvath is not a cheap player. He's a pending RFA or sorry, I should say UFA. But I mean, if we're talking ID deals scenario, I think he would be the guy. He reliably puts up goals. You know, he's got those intangibles as far as good in the room. Wins face-offs, which, you know, as overrated as they may be, they certainly factor into these types of decisions. It's just, it's a bit of a shame that New Hook hasn't fully filled that role.

but with Newtishkin, just to jump on on your point before, he's a play driving winger, so I wonder if, like you said, if Rantin is on the other wing, if the center is not as important, that 2C. I know J.T. Confer is played there. So I think it'll really be a lot of moving parts, a difficult financial move to get that second line center. But also another guy who comes to mind is Tim O'Meyer.

And again, that one's not half. No, I know. It's like the money that doesn't work and everything. No, well, they just don't have. He's also a, he's also a, sorry, go ahead. Well, they just don't have the assets to make a trade like that. Like, because they're not, like, they're not going to trade ball and buy them. And, like, even with Horvad, like, he only makes 5.5 if you retain half of that. Like, I think they can, the money is not the prohibitive issue.

It's, it's what you can give up in return in terms of, like, assets that would intrigue a seller and a trade like that would have to revolve around Alex New Hook in my opinion. And I'd still be cautious as disappointed as I've been this year in terms of him not taking that opportunity and just seizing it and making the most of it. He's a 21-year-old who I think is an RFA this summer, but is going to be very cost-controlled and that's valuable for this team. And so I'd be very cautious on, especially since you're not going to be able to afford to re-sign a horribat to just like, I know Stanley Cups are all the matter, and if they get healthier, they're once again going to be right up there as a favorites, and so they should,

they should try to defend their crown, undoubtedly. I just, I worry about that. I'll give you, I'll give you a name that I think helps satisfy a lot of this and alleviate some of the concerns. Adam Henrique. So the slight complications are he's played the wing this year, which is not that big one issue for me because he still takes all the face-offs for the ducks and he has played center in the past. I think that's totally fine. He can slot him in down the middle.

I think the bigger issue is he's on the books again for next year so he's not as clean because I don't think the avalanche ideally want to be taking on future money as well, especially for a player who's on the wrong side of 30. But if the ducks can facilitate it by retaining salary, I think there's some wiggle room there. And he's the exact, I'm so glad you brought up the idea of, okay, you're going to be surrounding whoever the second

line center is with two of Miko Ranton, Baller and Etchuskin, Arturi Lekidin, or Gabriel Andeskog when they come back, when he comes back. That's like about as good of a spot as you can put a center in. Does not need to be a world beater in terms of being a 5-1-5 needle mover. What I like about Henrique is he's a good, he's a great finisher. Like he's always been an above average converter on his opportunities. He produces a 5-15, and he's having a fantastic year this year that's just being kind of overlooked because he plays on the Anaheim ducks, right? But, yeah, like he leads the team in scoring. He's on base with 27 goals very quietly. And here's a, here's a stab with you. I brought up the 5-15 impacts with Pedersen earlier. This is probably up there

as one of the most mind-blowing ones that I found. So with him on the ice at 5-1-5, the ducks are outscoring teams, 24 to 23. without him on the ice, they are down 102 to 40. Oh my God. At this point in the season, that's outrageous. He's played halfway through. He's played all of his minutes with, like, Troy Terry and either Trevor Zegro's or Mason McTavish.

Like, he's always, like, they're putting him in a spa where he's playing with whoever the team's best players are. But I don't care. Like, I think if at this point of the season, if you have that type of impact, and it's all like, this is like some out of nowhere, A.A. cheller it's like all right how good is he actually like he's got an extended track record of being a good NHL player right i think for that price that you can probably get them for very cheap um teams like the abs teams like i would even say a reunion with the devils makes a ton of sense

uh i think teams should be all over it because he can meaningfully improve your team very versatile can use them in different ways as i said and it should be cheap like i don't think the ducks are going to be expecting any sort of premium assets in return. So I kind of keep coming back to him as like a guy that checks a lot of boxes for a lot of these contenders. Well, and he's got a 10-team no trade list. So that would work in Colorado's favor, presumably. Yes, they wouldn't be on there. So if he narrows the market down, that obviously helps. And you wonder with Henrique, a guy who's been with the ducks for a bit here, like if he's just ready to back his bags and go and move on, like he's been through a fair bit here

since coming over. So I hadn't thought about that one, but I think you're onto something to them. I actually think, yeah, it seems, it feels strange to say because it's a Colorado avalanche, but I think they should be targeting a player that actually is more offensively oriented. Right?

Like, we don't think about the abs as being a team that struggles to score, and their powerfully is certainly amazing. But because of all the injuries, because of all the moving parts, like 5-on-5 has been a bit of a grind-fif. than the season. And I'm perfectly fine with that infrastructure in place, with the environment, with the players they have, with the wingers they have to get a guy who can, once he gets the

puck and the offense zone, put it in the net. And Henrique certainly does that, right, in a very underrated way. So that's kind of one that I kept coming back to. I mean, the center market is pretty limited, right? Like, yeah, beyond, I guess, the big names and in Horbat and Ryan O'Reilly when he comes back. And I guess, whatever your mileage on Jonathan Taves is at this point. And And in this case, even if it's salary retained, like, it's still going to be, what, over five million in cap hit. That's going to be tough to fit in. It's pretty limited.

It's like Ivan Barbershev, Max Dolmey, like, and then even we've heard Blackhawks might want to keep domy. And so it's the list of guys available that could fit that need is pretty minimal, which might juice the prices on some of them because supply and demand situation. But I still think, Henrique, you can get him for very cheap. Yeah, I considered throwing out. O'Reilly, but the more I thought about it, I'm like, it doesn't make a ton of sense. It's obviously a sentimental pick as a former Ave, but you mentioned the broken foot, so

who knows what it'll look like afterwards. You know, St. Louis is actually still right in the hunt for playoff spots, or they're even trading this guy. His year hasn't been great, even before he got injured. He's got 7. I want to say 7, 5 million on his cap it. So O'Reilly is one of those ones where if you saw, you know, one of those trade, and you're thinking second line center for any team you go, of course. But then you start pulling the threads on him and you get turned off, especially for a team, like the abs. Yeah.

Yeah, I'm going to be interested in him. I still think he's got some juice left. He's been a bit unlucky this year. But yeah, I mean, like I said, for the abs, I think it's okay to go for a more offensively we were into the guy. Okay, we had one final question here about the Predators. I mean, we only got a couple minutes here left. So we can jam this one.

It's from Thomas. And Thomas asks, if you were the GM of the Predators, like, how would you approach this current situation in terms of retooling versus rebuilding versus having this aging core? I mean, Don has them at 21% odds to make the playoffs.

They've had a bit of a surge year just because UC Soros is an absolute maniac. And that's about it, in my opinion. Like, they're so, they're so backed into a corner with this team. And it's, I don't feel bad for them. It's,

it's by their own doing, but, like, they've got so much money committed in guys who are 30 plus in terms of age for many years down the road. And so I don't, meaningfully, I don't know really what you do beyond if an opportunity comes up to shed one of those contracts, I would just do it. Like, without even worrying about making my team worse right now and what I'd get back in return. Like, if I could just get as much of a clean slate as I could, I think that's the route and go. Yeah, the definition of a mushy middle team. I mean, they've lost in the first round, a bunch over the years. They don't have a ton of high-end prospects. You look at the roster and Forsberg Dushan and Johansson, they're not a cup contending big street. I don't know, you know,

it doesn't matter what else is going on around them. And they're making 24.5 million combined over at least the next three years. Some of the contracts go further. Like, that's a whole lot of just mediocrity and like on their own, those players are valuable. They're good. But just the way that the roster has been structured, it's a lot of B plus players, not enough A players like a Yossi and a Saros. So, I mean, my actual answer to this would be to blow it up beyond Saros and maybe Yossi, although he's aging, right? So maybe he's on the way out. But that's obviously unrealistic, especially when we're talking to David Poyle, a guy who's basically has a lifetime contract there and clearly making the playoffs is an objective. I think the more realistic answer is probably to figure out, like, when is this team going to go all in?

So I would say it's not going to be this year. But say if you pick two years from now, I don't know, maybe you think Cody Glass is going to pop or Tomasino is going to be this real important player. Well, then build towards that moment. Get out of that mushy middle at some point. Use your first to acquire young players and have them grow within your group. and maybe, like you said, get off one of these bigger contracts. It's a little disappointing, honestly, how they've, how their season's gone. Because I thought the Nieder Rider acquisition was pretty good in the offseason.

I thought Ryan McDonough was, considering the price was nothing. Mind you, I'm, he's obviously, he's old and he's battered, and he's not quite the player he used to be, but I came into this season pretty optimistic about the prayer as far as making the postseason and maybe making some noise, but it's almost same old story. I mean, John, they have $56 million in commitments on the following players. Philip Forsberg, Matt DeShane, Ryan Johanson, Michael Granlin, Sizzins, tourists, Baha'i, Yossi, McDonough, and Echholm. All of those players are in their 30s other than Philip Forsberg, who turns 29 in August,

and all of them are on the books until at least 2025, at which point UC Soros will be a 30-year-old unrestricted free agent. I don't, when you say, like, pick the time to go all in, I think they're all in. Like, this is the team. This is what they got. I don't, I don't know.

You cannot trade any firsts with this team. Like, you know, I'm just thinking, like, is there a way to maneuver what you have on your roster, keep, you know, five of those pieces, but trade three? You know what I mean? Like, I guess it would be a retool, like, rest of, retool, whatever term you want to use, but like, I just feel like what they have right now is just not going to work. That's, well, and the problem with the crime landscape is, is a lot of

those pieces are not, like, net positive assets in terms of like, you're not going to be the team getting back stuff for them. You know what I mean? Like, you'll be lucky if someone just takes the contract off your hands for nothing. And so that, that's, it's, that's what it's kind of, they boxed themselves into that. And it's a shame because Soros, like I said, is, has been a top three goalie this year again and and you know after a relatively slow start the final 25 game or the most recent 25 games he's been the best goalie in the league and so to be in this position with that in mind is disappointing but it it's the reality and then i think they need to they need to take a long look in the mirror beyond just kind of like closing their eyes burying their head in the sand and hoping for the best

just because they have sorrows so all right man well this is a this was a this was a bit of a sober note to add on but i think otherwise a very a very fun mailbag i'll let you you you quickly promote, promote some of your work and let the listeners know where they can check out. Sure. Excuse me. Yeah, I'm the senior AXR writer for the score.

You can find me at M-A-T-I-S-S-D-J-O-H-N on Twitter. I post all my links there, so that's probably the best bet. But as usual, Dimitri, thanks for having me on, looking forward to bantering in the future. I love it, man. This is a blast. I enjoyed it. Hopefully the listeners did as well.

We'll be back tomorrow with more. So until then, thank you for listening to the Hockey P.Ocast on the Sportsnet Radio Network.