The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - $20M CVille Homeless Shelter v $20.5M Cavalier Crossing; $20M Shelter: 27K SQF, 80 Beds, 3.87 Acres

Episode Date: March 27, 2026

The I Love CVille Show headlines: $20M CVille Homeless Shelter v $20.5M Cavalier Crossing $20M Homeless Shelter: 27K SQF, 80 Beds, 3.87 Acres $20.5M Cav Crossing: 144 Apartments, 520 Beds, 14.55 Acres CVille Population Drops 4.58% Over The Last 5 Years Albemarle Co Population Spikes 5.27% Over Last 5 Years Why Is Charlottesville Losing Its Tax Base? Is It Public Policy? Econ Dev? Loud Activists? Homeless? Need CVille Office & Commercial Space, Contact Jerry Read Viewer & Listener Comments Live On-Air The I Love CVille Show airs live Monday – Friday from 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm on The I Love CVille Network. Watch and listen to The I Love CVille Show on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, iTunes, Apple Podcast, YouTube, Spotify, Fountain, Amazon Music, Audible, Rumble and iLoveCVille.com.

Welcome to the I Love Sevo Show, guys. My name is Jerry Miller, and thank you kindly for joining us on a Friday afternoon in downtown Charlottesville. We're smack dab in the middle of everything, activity, and dynamic of this region. We call Charlottesville, Almore County, and Central Virginia. What we talk about on this show is, you know, is nuanced. And I think today's show will embody that. There is a population decrease of concerning proportions. in Charlottesville, Virginia. The population in the city of Charlottesville has dropped 4.58% over the last five years. We want to ask the question, why is the population dropping by 4.58% over a 60-month period of time, while the population of neighboring jurisdiction Alamoro County has increased 5.27% in the same period of time. This is a red flag. This is a tax base that's leaving Charlottesville. And when the tax base leaves Charlottesville, that puts more of the financial responsibility, more of the tax burden on the residents that are left behind. That means escalating taxes. And that's all happening at the same time that collective bargaining has materialized.

So city employees are more costly to pay. This also may impact public school enrollment in Charlottesville. If you have less people living here, there's less students in public schools. And enrollment is how the state determines funding for those public schools. So this is a pretty serious topic here, and it's a nuance that I want to talk about it on the show. I don't think, I'm going to have the conversation with Judith today. I don't think this is strictly tied to affordability. I don't think we can say specifically Charlottesville is unaffordable from a housing standpoint.

and as a result, the population is decreasing. Why I don't think you can say that with confidence and conviction is, is neighboring jurisdiction in Amarral County is much more expensive from a median home value than Charlottesville City. And Almoreau County's population is increasing. I think this is more nuanced than tied to public policy, tied to governance, tied to activism, homelessness, and a lack of economic development.

That's a topic I'm going to unpack on the show today. Louisa County is the darling of the census data that was released yesterday. Louisa County's population spike is how much? 14.2. 14.2% spike for Louisiana County. In fact, the neighboring jurisdictions to Charlottesville, all saw population increases except Nelson County, which clearly is fighting some kind of stagnation. Yeah.

Not just stagnation with its population, stagnation with its economy, stagnation with home values, stagnation with with with with with with with with with with with with public school enrollment. Yeah, I was just going to say that at Nelson County. Nelson County. Nelson County ends, that's God's God, I love some Nelson County. I love Route 150 fun. It is God's country, but there are a lot of headwinds for Nelson County right now. There's a lot to unpack on today's show. I'm going to try to offer a cop or a comparison for the boondoggle that Charlottesville City Hall is pursuing with this homeless shelter on holiday drive.

We found out yesterday through some commentary from Mayor Juan Diego Wade on the record and through a presentation that was unreadable in PowerPoint presentation, that the all-in cost for year one is $26.5 million, $26.5 million for the homeless shelter. Now, I'm going to take some of those elements out when doing my comp. For example, I'm going to take out the $1 to $2 million estimate for the furniture, fixtures, and equipment. I'm going to take out the $3 to $4 million for the operating budget for the year, and I'm a yearly operating budget, and I'm going to take out the $500K,000. the transportation allowance.

There's literally a plan to to Rolls Royce, the homeless, to and from this holiday drive shelter, which I find absolute insanity. And when I'm doing my comp, I'm going to compare and contrast it to Cavalier Crossing that's sold in May of 2024. So we're not even two years removed

from the sale of this apartment complex off the 5th Street extended, off of Old Lynchburg Road, and the urban ring. I think it's a decent comp. It's not an apples to apples comp, but it's a decent one. And I'm going to give you the metrics of Cavalier Crossing, which sold for $20.5 million. And Cavalier Crossing includes 144 apartments, 520 beds, 14.55 acres.

They also get a swimming pool. They also get a clubhouse. They also get a gymnasium. They also get a parking lot and a dog park. the northern Virginia real estate firm that purchased Cavalier Crossing. The city of Charlottesville, for similar money, $20 million for $20.5 million, is getting an empty office building 3.87 acres in a view of the 250 bypass. What's going on here?

We're going to try to make sense of it all. My name is Jerry Miller. Judah Wickcarry you'll see on screen in a matter of moments. This to water cooler content and conversation, thanks to partners like Jerry Rackleff.com. Jerry Rackleff, a friend of ours, is a Virginia Sports Hall of Famer, and he's covered the University of Virginia Athletic Department for more than 50 years. He's publishing and producing two pieces of content per day at jerryrackliff.com. The content is content that you can't get anywhere else when it comes to UVA sports. He's asking for folks to pay $8 a month to become subscribers of his content because he needs to pay his bills.

And free news does not allow someone like Jerry Rackcliffe to pay his bills. So for $8 a month, you're going to get roughly two pieces of content today, content per day, podcasting content. He's doing a podcast today with Jeff Jones, the former Virginia men's basketball coach. I'm a subscriber of Jerry Rackliff.com. It's the best content for UVA sports possible. If you bleed orange and blue, there's only one source for news, and it's Jerry Rackleaf.com. Studio camera, Judah, then a two-shot, I do have a 130 conference call that's important. So we need to be off air by 125 today as we help a client pursue incremental market share for their sizable business in central Virginia.

I ask you often the same question to start the show. And I'm going to ask you that question today. I would imagine the population storyline is quite fascinating for you. Yeah, definitely. It's going to be, I think, fun speculating on what the cause is, whether it's families moving out. and couples or, you know, people with the money to buy up those properties moving in. I mean, what happens when a house flipper buys a house and it stays off the rolls for,

I mean, I guess there are no roles. It's just a matter of what the census numbers show. I don't follow. When they buy a house, when a house filper purchases a house to flip, they're still paying taxes on that. Yeah, but they'll show up in the. the census if they're not living in Charlottesville. Are you saying there's no... I'm saying if a family moves out and an older couple moves into that place or if somebody buys the property and holds onto it to flip or whatever, then you see the

outflow of families leaving who can no longer afford the area and you don't see the same inflow because you might just be getting, you know, an older couple whose kids have already, you know, flown the nest, and they buy the place. And so you're trading, you know, what, a family of five for a family of two? Well, that same nuance is happening in Amarrow. That's not unique to Charlottesville. I think it's more to unpack than that. I think why the population migration is happening is a little bit of unaffordability,

but frankly, I think it's tied to public policy, governance, economic development, lack thereof, the homelessness, and extremely loud activism that's alienating and turning off a lot of people. I think we'll talk about that on the programs. So you're saying nobody's buying the places they're leaving? No one's buying the places they're leaving? Well, you're talking about people leaving because they don't like the politics, they don't like the homeless or whatever the reason is. But if somebody leaves a house, if somebody moves somewhere else, they're selling their house and somebody else is buying it.

So what is the offset? Inventory is still moving in Charlestville. It's not moving as quickly as it once did. Yeah. To your point, it's expensive and to your point, boomers want to be close to live, walk, play, and that's urban. Get close to the mall, get close to parks, get close to breweries and restaurants, where you can walk around.

And to your point, if boomers are cashing out at a house outside of Charlottesville, buying homes with all cash in city limits, and then they have a husband and wife or a husband and a wife and wife with no kids, then the population is going to down tick. Concerning aspect to that is public school enrollment is going to fall. Less funding from the state as a result. That's something we're going to talk about on the show. We want you, the viewer and listener to join us in the discussion.

It's going to be a three-way discussion. You, Judah, me, and the viewers and listeners. Janice Voic Trevillian is watching the program. Let's get her photo on screen. She asks me a question that's not tied to our rundown, but it's topical to Charlottesville. This is exactly what we want. She says, Jerry, do you know why they are stopping cross traffic

on the downtown mall until June? It says for construction. I do know that answer. The cross streets, was it 4th Street? Is the other one second street, Judah? I believe it's, yeah, I believe it's second street on the other side. Yeah. So second street west?

The two cross streets on the downtown mall, the bricks are being repaired. The vendor that secured the request for proposal that won the RFP was, is Oak Valley custom hardscapes. If you remember a handful of months ago, Oak Valley Custom Hardscapes was a partner of the I Love Seville Show. I'll offer even more color for you, the viewer and listener. We helped our firm, my firm, helped Oak Valley Custom Hardscapes secure office space on the downtown mall in the old Wells Fargo building

where they have a beautiful office that's literally overlooking the downtown mall, windows, floor to ceiling on the downtown mall. through the relationship of helping them secure office space on a lease, nice lease on the downtown mall, and through Oak Valley partnering on the I Love Seville Show, I've gotten to know Tim Hess, who's come on this show, the Charlottesville point of contact for Oak Valley Custom Hardscapes. He's basically called C-suite for Oak Valley Custom Hardscapes.

They won a contract, this is public record. not speaking at a turn north of $800,000 to do the brick work on the cross streets downtown. I salute and applaud Oak Valley Custom Hardscapes. They're phenomenal. They're local, and it's not just commercial hardscaping they do. They can take something in your backyard, fire pits, pools, decking, anything hardscape-related and turned it into reality. My issue is not with Oak Valley in any capacity.

They are amazing. My issue is with the city. Why would you choose to close the cross streets in downtown Charlottesville from April to June? That's the question a lot of people have. This is genuinely the busiest season. This is prime time for downtown that's struggling economically right now. Especially after the snow and the rain, the frozen landscape. We had here for weeks.

Yeah. Why, if your city, the city hall, it's city council, would you allow the cross streets in downtown Charlottesville to be closed April, May, and June? Arguably the three most important months, graduation, when the temperature's not scalding hot spring, and you have a pedestrian mall. It makes no sense. No sense. and it's a perfect segue into making no sense with this homeless shelter and what's shaking out. We have some lower thirds we can put on screen. I would like to compare and contrast, and then we will open up the dialogue to you, the viewer and listener.

This homeless shelter, Janice Boyce Trevillian, you're absolutely welcome. We love and appreciate you. I would love to compare the $20 million homeless shelter on Holiday Drive to a 20 point, 5 million Cavalier Crossing purchase in the urban ring. Both the homeless shelter on Holiday Drive and Cavalier Crossing apartment complex are in the urban ring. They're a few miles away from each other. Cavalier Crossing was purchased by a Northern Virginia real estate investment firm called

Bonaventure. Bonaventure, the Nova real estate investment firm, listen to this. purchased Cavalier Crossing, which is located down Fifth Street extended off of Old Lynchburg Road, and has since been rebranded a taint on fifth. Is that what it's called?

Yep. Attaint on fifth. Attain on fifth. Oh, dear. It's actually called Attained on Fifth, which is the dumbest name ever. Yeah, it's one of those, what were they thinking? What were you thinking? nobody,

attained on fifth. What are you thinking? Have you consulted with a branding firm in any capacity? Have you consulted with a teenager? Yeah. I mean, that's what you need. You need a teenager like,

okay. What could go wrong if we call this a taint on fifth? What could go wrong? And when the teenager starts laughing nonstop for like 15 minutes, you know you've missed something. Which is maybe they consult with us because, or maybe yours truly, because the maturity is up a teenager right here,

a taint on fifth. And the most, the irony here is they're trying to convert it into luxury apartments. Yeah. All right. We'll get back to it. You have lower thirds you can rotate on screen. Okay? Make sure you get those lower thirds on screen for the storyline.

There's three or four you can rotate. Bonaventure paid $20,500,000 in May, 2024 for Cavalier Crossing, which has 144,3,000. and four bedroom apartments and a total of 520 bedrooms. Bonaventure, with this purchase, acquired 14.55 acres. That's the land these 144 bedrooms, 144 apartments and 520 bedrooms sit on. Not only did they get 14.55 acres, not only did they get 520 bedrooms, not only did they get 520 bedrooms, Not only did they get 144, 3- and 4-bedroom apartments. They also got a huge parking lot, which they went to the board of supervisors and said, we want to build more housing on this parking lot.

Parking space is incredibly valuable. They also got a dog park, a swimming pool, a clubhouse that has a gymnasium and conference room space and a kitchenette in it. They also got a location on a bus stop line and a boatload of wooded acres that are undeveloped. So for $20,500,000, not even two years ago, in the urban ring, a sophisticated, astute, private company purchased a massive piece of property. Now, let's compare and contrast to what government is doing. Government. In October of last year, remember, they did it in May of 2024, Northern Virginia Forum, May of 20204. October of last year is when Charlottesville did it.

So quick math, that's what, 17 months difference, 17 month Delta. Charlottesville purchased. an office building that had been sitting empty for a long period of time. That office building was 27,000 square feet. That office building sat on 3.87 acres, 3.87, when you include the contiguous parcel that was also included in the deal. So Charlottesville is now government planning to add, I have to do some quick math in my head,

$9 million to $14 million in remodeling costs here to get to $20 million. And when they're all said and done, that $20 million, which is funded by us taxpayers, is going to yield 80 bets. So here you have a private company that's sophisticated, that is nuanced, that does investment on a regular basis,

that acquired $520 bets, in 144 apartments, apartment buildings, and 14.5 acres for 20.5 million. And on the other side, you've got Charlottesville, which is governance. This is not what they do for a living. That bought 27,000 square foot empty office building on 3.87 acres, and it's only going to get 80 bets. The reason I'm talking about this to you is this is as close, of a comp that I can find. Correct me if I'm wrong, viewers and listeners,

if there's another comp that may be better or better suited, to try to justify whether Charlottesville City is making a good decision. That's all I'm trying to do. Is Charlottesville City making a good decision spending $20 million on a homeless shelter for 80 beds? The most concerning element of the deal, which I highlighted on yesterday's show,

is the operating budget, which is $4 million a year and a transportation budget which is $500,000 a year and the fact that there's no agreement in place with an actual operator yet. I've highlighted it on the show and I'll do it again.

The stakeholders in this are going to shake down Almaro County as well. And they're going to utilize bullying and guilt tactics, make you feel guilty, make you feel bad for not helping people, to get Almore County ins to fund this project. I've called it, I predicted it, wait and see,

get ready and giddy up, and Mike Pruitt and Sally Duncan are going to leave the charge. Mark it down, folks. Mark it down. So before we go to the population topic, in closing, and then we'll take questions, comments, we'll open it up to your discussion. When you consider a $20 million homeless shelter, remember it's 27,000 square feet

on three and a half acres and 80 beds and compare and contrast it to a purchase done in May of 2024 that was basically the same purchase price that is 520 beds, not 80, that also has 144 apartment buildings on it. Room to grow and expand

and it's what? Five times, four and a half times the acreage. Judah Wickhauer, than viewers and listeners. Judah, show is yours. It's too bad that that's the closest comp we've got. I feel like there's something missing in there.

Maybe it's the fact that the apartments are served outdoors. I mean, you can get to your door. You don't have to go into a building that leads to all of the apartments, I don't think. I have no idea what you're talking about here. I'm basically saying that for what the shelter is offering, they're going to offer services besides just beds. The indoor nature of it is probably better suited to the homeless population,

especially since it's a low barrier shelter, and this is not going to be a family type thing. this is going to be a place where they may have trouble keeping people in line. And I'm just pointing out that an apartment complex is very different from an entirely interior office building. You have good points. My take is straightforward on this one. $6.2 million, maybe with some hindsight, it looks like Charlottesville overpaid. Yeah, I'm not saying that the...

I think they ever paid for this. I'm not saying that Holiday Drive was the best decision. I think the seller of this office building was a smart guy. And he realized that public outcry on homelessness was he sold it a great time. Because the natives were restless. And he got top tier price point for an office building that was empty. Secondly, Charlottesville is not nuanced in real estate development or remodeling. It's a government.

Remodeling an office building into a shelter is costly. As we're finding out. As we're absolutely finding out. The firm in northern Virginia got a great price. I mean, let's take $20,500,000. So $20,500,000 and divide it by $520 bets. You should write this down. $20,500,000 divided by $520 is $39,423 per bed.

And these are actual bedrooms where the shelter is building basically cots, you know, a bed in an open area. But $39,423 per bed, Bonaventure secured with Cavalier Crossing. Let's take $20 million the cost of the shelter and divided by $80. It's effing $250,000 per bed. I want to compare. As people have pointed out, it probably would have been a lot cheaper for the government to just take all that money and give it to the homeless population, whether in like stipends, weekly or monthly stipends or just, you know, pay for. With the contingency that you take all this money and, as Deep Throat said, move to Scrant on a one-way Greyhound.

ticket. That's deep. Or they could just pay for hotel rooms for, I mean, with that much money, they could probably pay for hotel rooms for the next five or ten years. This is one that may be out kicking my, outkicking my coverage. My coverage here, was the city of Charlottesville better off purchasing this office building and tearing it down and building a shelter from scratch? Yeah. As opposed to remodeling the shelter.

Remodeling an office building. Retrofit something that's there. That's that I wonder if sure are they better off tearing this down and building dirt up? Like has that conversation been had? I don't think it has. We haven't heard any mention of that. As anyone on council said to the nonprofit stakeholders, what if we just tear this down and build it to spec? Because they certainly can get more than 80 bets.

Or there's enough land on there that they could use this, continue to use it as offices. It could be the offices for the services. that go towards helping the homeless population. And then, as you said, just build from the ground up right next to it, you know, the housing that you need. Conan Owen watching the program, his photo on screen. Sophisticated and astute are words that never apply to government, let alone our city's leadership. Conan Owen, we appreciate your straightforwardness. Stacey Baker-Patti giving the show some props.

Viewers and listeners, like and share the show. Henry Clavo is watching the program. He said, this was chosen by the people. This is what we wanted. He's exactly right, Henry Clavo. And that means the seller of the office building got a great deal. Because public pressure insisted that this happened. So that's some content and conversation for your cocktail and charkooterie party.

Viewers and listeners this week in John Blair watching the program, Deep Throat watching the program. Now, I want to spend the next 25 minutes on the, we'll comment first from Deep Throat here. He says, here was my plan. Buy the office building, move the nonsense public offices on the downtown mall to the office building, then build the shelter on the other parcel. That is only land. What you're saying?

Yeah. Yeah. And he also says on the downtown mall brickwork, maybe there is a reason you can't do it in cold weather, but they could surely have done it in July and August when the town is empty. 100%. 100%. Like doing it in April, May, and June

is graduation. Yeah. Doing it in April, May, and June is when we want to be outside. At the very least, I've heard they're alternating. So they're not going to have both of them close at the same time. You know what's wild to me is we were driving up

Market Street today after dropping our second grader off at school? I then come up what's the road there by Seville Cof? after dropping them off. Is that McIntyre by McIntyre Park? McIntyre office building? That's the main, yeah.

Yeah. So I come up McIntyre, then connect to Market Street, our studio right on Market Street. They have a huge construction sign, flashing digital sign on the entry of downtown Charlottesville, April 1, April through June, downtown mall, roads closed. Yeah. Literally on the entry of Marketer. Market Street to downtown Charlottesville, there's a massive huge sign that says April through June, downtown roads closed. Don't come here.

What the F are you doing? Don't come here. This is the antithesis of economic development. This is just common sense. All right, we need to get to the population migration. Do you want to set the stage here with population migration or shall I? Why don't you go? we try to be equal opportunists and conversating here.

At least I try to. I value your opinion. I think the viewers and listeners value your opinion tremendously as well, Judah. John Blair's got a comment coming in. Oh, his is on the population migration. John, I'm going to get to your comment here. Judah Wickherer, go first. And remember, I got to be all fair about 125, 127 for a 130 call.

All right. So a lot of this was a lot of the, I think, confusion. and surprise stems from the fact that a lot of the area was basing their information on a one Weldon Cooper, the UVA Center for Public Service that did, they were basing their census information on old information, and they had been off quite a bit in some cases. and when the new census information came out for 2025, they updated their counts and we found out how far off they were. Al Barl, as you've mentioned, grew 5.27 percent. Weldon Cooper was off by a little bit.

They were a little bit higher. Fluvana grew 6.37 percent pretty close to what Weldon Cooper had. Green, they were slightly higher. Louisa, they were off a little bit. But as we know, Charlottesville was way off. And I think it was a bit of a cold water to the face to hear that Charlottesville in the last five years has dropped as much as it has. The United States Census just released its updated population figures. The federal agency estimates the city of Charlottesville lost more than 2,100 people.

over the last five years. In 2020, and rotate the lower thirds on screen here, if you could please. In 2020, census counted 46,518 people. In 2025, the census tallied 44,388 people, which is a staggering 4.58% population decline. The surprise or the staggering nature of this storyline is also, compounded with the comparison to Alamara County. In that same five-year period of time,

Albemarle County's population spiked increased 5.27% from 112,435 people to 118,356 people. I am now going to try to unpack this data by analyzing it and offering commentary. Before I can analyze it and offer commentary, I'm going to offer questions. of why Charlottesville's population is downsizing.

My first question is one that John Blair put on my radar yesterday. Is this tied to poor public policy? My next question is something we've been talking about over the last two weeks on the show. Is this drop in population tied to struggling economic development? My next question is one we've talked about for an extended period of time on this network. Is this drop in population tied to,

elevated tax exposure. For example, governance is thinking about a two cent real estate tax rate increase as we speak. And lastly, is this drop in population

tied to Charlottesville's activist community, which is frankly loud and obnoxious, and yes, I'm talking about you livable Seville. Can't be more straightforward than that.

I'm loud and obnoxious. Okay, you livable Seaville. Okay. So I think those are the questions. I don't think this is strictly tied to unaffordability in Charlottesville. I don't think this is

strictly, oh, the homes are way too expensive. That's why Charlottesville's leaving. That's why Charlottesvillians are fleeing city limits. And why I don't think that's the case is because the homes, average median-wise, are more expensive in Almaro County than Charlottesville City.

And their population is increasing. I think this is more tied. My personal two cents, my commentary. This is commentary, folks, opinion. My commentary is this is a three-fold, four-fold, a four-legged stool. And the four-legged stool is terrible public policy. The four-legged stool is homelessness.

The four-legged stool is terrible economic development. And the four-legged stool is increased tax exposure. And maybe that public policy, that public policy, That public policy, that phrase public policy kind of encompasses all those elements that are probably subcategories of public policy. Economic development, subcategory. Homelessness, subcategory of public policy.

Homelessness, economic development, increased taxes. All subcats. That's my take. Deep Throats got some really good color on this. His analysis is more sophisticated than mine. Very cut straight to the chase on this. on content like this. He says this.

This is important for you, viewers and listeners, to hear this. I can tell the viewers and listeners that the population decline is not people moving out of Charlottesville and going to the outlying counties. The IRS sole stats, is it SOL stats, soul stats? The IRS, SOL or SOTS came out. Granted, this was for 2023. and the net movement from Seville to Waynesboro, Seville to Stanton, Seville to Augusta, Seville to Green County is negligible. So that's not what is going on.

There is more significant net flow from Charlottesville to Al Morrow. I think one dynamic that could be going on is the de-childification of Charlottesville City. This is up what you said to begin the show. The de-childification of Charlottesville City. household count is not going down. What is going down is household size. More retirees, fewer families.

Yeah. What you said. Families prefer to live someplace with good schools, safety, acreage. The white picket fence, the American dream. That makes sense. Viewers and listeners, let us know what your perspective and thoughts are. Olivia Branch is watching the program, and she's giving the show some props. Roger Brent is as well.

John Blair's comments, his photo on screen. Jerry, there's always chatter about we are bigger. There's just an issue with undercounting UVA students. I've literally heard people in Charlottesville say that about the census since 2020 since the 2020 census. But let me ask you this. Does UVA hold a special course on being undercounted for the census? You do not hear Montgomery County, Harrisonburg, Williamsburg, Lexington, or Lynchburg constantly say, while the census just undercounted Virginia Tech,

JMU, William and Mary, VMI, and Liberty Kids by a lot, adjust our numbers up by 10%. Why is it only Charlottesville that would have this large of an undercount? I'm being serious. I literally don't understand how Charlestville could be so undercounted compared to other college towns. He also adds, okay, he also adds this. When he mentioned public policy yesterday,

he was alluding specifically to housing, and land use public policy. I would imagine, and John, I'm going to unpack this for you. I'm assuming a little bit, so correct me if I'm wrong. I think what he's alluding here is before the new zoning ordinance was approved a second time or green lit a second time or however many times it was. The prior to that, 53% of residential property in Charlottesville City was zoned R1 for single family detached homes. Now that zoning has been loosened, which the same.

city hopes, governance hopes, activist hopes, that will yield more dense housing, more inventory, potentially stabilizing pricing, which then could increase population again. Regardless, in very simplistic terms, viewers and listeners that are watching our fine and fair talk show, in very simplistic terms, I'm going to wrap this in a bow for your cocktail and charcutory party this weekend. A 4.58% drop, Judah, and population for Charlottes, city is hugely concerning. It's hugely concerning for the frontline businesses, like the food and beverage or hospitality or music, the coffee shops, the restaurants, the event spaces, the retail stores that need people to work at $12, $15 an hour. And also people to shop there. Those people who aren't just

tourists. Those folks are leaving. It's extremely important for those businesses like Judah just said that need patronization. It's extremely concerning for public schools where funding is based on

enrollment. The same public schools that are more costly today to run than they were five years ago when the trend line started going downward because of collective bargaining, the staff is more expensive. and because the staff is bigger

and more expensive and larger fair point and staff is growing at what maybe not quite twice the rate of the students that's insane it's absolute insanity it's also extremely concerning for the existing tax base

because when you lose 2,100 people now not all of those are taxpayers some of those 2100 maybe kids but those kids are still shopping and spending the wages they make at a part-time job. And their parents are still shopping for them. Okay.

So let's say it's 2100 people that you've lost tax base. When you lose 4.58% of your population, the people that are still here are now going to have to cover the difference of what migrated away. And they're doing it at a time where floating debt is more expensive than it was in 2000. Remember in 2000, it was COVID? That's when interest rates were at historical lows. That's when interest rates for housing, interest rates for floating debt, historical lows. Remember in 2000?

Gas prices were like a buck 50, buck 60. 2000? COVID. I, you know. Or excuse me, 2020. I'm using the word 2020. Five years ago is 2020. In 2020, that was COVID.

Historically low interest rates. 2020. Is it 150 then? Oh, dude. When the beginning of COVID, people weren't driving. gas was let's see what the gas price is what was the gas price in Charlottesville

I don't barely remember when gas is below $3 a gallon I've got a terrible number of COVID it was like dirt cheap yeah it was like okay it was like upper ones upper ones because people weren't driving now it's two times it's $4 a gallon

Yeah. We haven't, this came up on real talk with Keith Smith this morning. We have not experienced what could be the true inflationary effects of escalated oil. We understand that it's, oh my God, it's $4 a gallon. I'm pumping into the family Ford Explorer as opposed to $2.79 before this Iranian war. But have you really considered the lasting impact this will have on insurance, The lasting impact that this will have on groceries. I was reading this study that farmers right now are pulling crop early

because they don't have the fertilizer to maintain it. And as they pull the crop early, there's less of the crop. So once we start seeing less of the crop hit the grocery stores, then because there's less supply, the price point's going to be up. I also read a similar study about cattle. The cattle is being, I don't know the exact terminology, butchered, whatever you do, selling the cattle because they don't have the fertilizer, the resources, the oats, the feed to continue

feeding the cattle because the oil in a lot of ways is tied to what the cattle do. Because it costs more to ship all the things that they use to grow them, like the feed and the whatnot. It's also going to be more expensive because when they eventually have to ship it off to the stores and around the United States and potentially outside of the United States. So the expectation is beef prices are going to be elevated in the second half of this year compared to now. Everything is going to be elevated, I would imagine,

because everything has to get somewhere. So the existing Charlottesvillian in this five-year period of time will be responsible for more budgetary responsibility for the city at a time where all their other expense is more costly. at a time where the city is asking for two cents on the real estate tax rate and increase, all while funding a $20 million shelter that's going to yield eight bets, 80 bets. Eight bets.

80 bets. Think about that. Now, Louisiana County, the darling of this. Yeah. Give them the darling details. As I have roughly five minutes here before this conference call, I cannot be late for this call. This one's an important one. The revised 2020 count for Louisa is.

37,586, and that increased 14.2% to 42,924. So Conan Owen has a question for Deep Throat. Deep Throat, this is a question from Conan Owen for you. So Conan Owen's photo on screen, and then we passed the baton to Deep Throat. He says, I don't think the population actually dropped. If it did, where are those 2,000 empty housing units vacated by those fleeing? That was my issue with people moving in and people moving out and the imbalance between families and say empty nesters. So question for you, Deep Throat from Conan Owen.

If that many people moved out, 2,100 people move out, why aren't there 21 empty housing units? Yeah, exactly. Because somebody moved in there or bought the place. I hope he's still watching the show so that he offers that. And he also wants to highlight deep throat that the median rent is 11% below the 2023 peak in Charlottesville City, that rent prices are actually stabilizing, which is an argument against your housing affordability for population migration. Mine. Well, didn't you initially start to show that?

that one of the reasons population migration is happening is on affordability with housing? I mean, who cares? We're not, we don't need to get into the weeds there. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I was, I was simply posing some questions at the beginning of the show. I wasn't stating a particular belief of mine. A lot for your cocktail and charcutory party. Conan, I will say this.

The population in Charlottesville Public Schools is dropping. So if the population at Charlottesville Public Schools is dropping, that is another indicator that would suggest the population in the city is dropping. The families are leaving. I will also say this. Everyone, not everyone, a lot of small businesses, and he's in the B2B business. We're in the B2B business. A lot of our clients are all saying that they can't find anybody to work, especially the frontline businesses, which may be an indication the population is dropping. I know Conan well enough to say, no, it's an indication that those that staffed the frontline jobs are either lazy or more enchanted with the gig economy where they work as they please and do not want a consistent 9 to 5 job.

He would say something along those lines. I know he would. I would use that as another indicator that the population is in fact dropping in Charleston. Regardless, you have a lot of talking points here. We'd like to give some attention to Stanley Martin Holmes. Stanley Martin Holmes is a partner of the show. They build honest, well-constructed homes, whether it's a condo, townhome, or single-family detached house.

Stanley Martin Holmes utilizes high-quality, single-family, high-quality materials, design and constructed with innovative techniques that ensure exceptional efficiency and aesthetic appeal. Stanley Martin Holmes. We got counselors watching the program right. now and supervisors. I also want to highlight Katie Mullins and her team have open house at 919 Druid Avenue this Saturday. Walk to anything and everything Charlottesville City related at 919 Druid Avenue $699,000 asking price

completely gutted and remodeled home that is super well constructed. Beautiful home 919 Druid Avenue. 10 milers this weekend. is Saturday. Ted Myler is Saturday. Keep that at my. You did a phenomenal job this week. Thank you. Sincerely mean that.

We are just trying to figure out what's going on around here. That's the whole gist of the show. What is going on around here? And we have the benefit of long-form content, and then we take this content, and we air it on every social media and podcasting platform. When you aggregate our reach across all platforms, have the second most watched, listen, and red brand in the area behind the University of Virginia.

And we don't take that lightly. Thank you for your support. That's this week's show. And thank you to our friends at Charlottesville Sanitary Supply and Charlottesville Swimming Pool Company that are your source for anything cleaning and sanitary related, free delivery and market, online ordering. And their sister company, Charlottesville Swimming Pool Company, anything swimming pool related, including construction, maintenance, design. You contact them first.

Judah Wickhauer, you're truly Jerry Miller. Thank you for joining us.