The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Alex Urpí & Michael Urpí Were Live On "Today y Mañana" On The I Love CVille Network!

Episode Date: October 16, 2025

Alex Urpí & Michael Urpí were live on “Today y Mañana!” “Today y Mañana” airs every Thursday at 10:15 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Today y Mañana” is presented by Emergent Financial Services, LLC, Charlottesville Opera and Matthias John Realty, with Forward Adelante.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to today and manana. I'm Alex. This is Michael. We're very excited to have you joining us on a beautiful morning. Beautiful morning. Nice cool crisp October a day. Cool crisp, not without, you know, that kind of rainingness. I know last week in Xavier and I had a little, you know, it wasn't the best weather. Yeah.

Today is very nice. It's the perfect day. It's cool enough that you can go get your tafeitolyche, get into your tozy place, and watch them today, when you are. Yes, or maybe like a pumpkin spice, because it is that time of year. Have you gotten your pumpkin spice? I have not. I have not done my pumpkin spice.

We used to have like a addition. We're not really big Starbucks people, but every once in a while, like during the October, November, December. We basically go once. Yes, because you've got to have, yeah, you've got to have, like, the pumpkin-spice latte. And then maybe during December, that's when you do, like, your gingerbread or peppermin-moka. Yes, pepper-moker. There was the egg, I used to like the eggnog latte.

Gondonat lattes. Yes. Gingerbread latte, yeah. Those are all good. The holiday ones, yeah. Always, yeah. Those are enjoyable. That would be, like, our one time of year, just normally we'd be like,

yeah, I'm not a fan of $5 overpriced coffee, you know. Yeah, exactly. Puzzance and financial advisors, I think you're always having your mind the thing about, like, That $5 multiplied by 30 years, you know. Exactly. $365 a day for 30 years. It's a lot of money that you could have put in your retirement. Exactly.

So you can never get that out of your head as a financial advisor. So you're like, oh, one time a year. Yeah. Maybe twice. We can. Especially sometimes, too, those drinks, I think they've gone to the board where they put too much of like the sugary syrup. So it's kind of like I'm drinking a little milk, a little coffee, and then like 90% like some sort of sugar syrup. They're not the same.

I mean, maybe it's nostalgia. I don't know. But it's like, but the promise you know, too, once you kind of had a taste of like European coffee and you come back, you used to like the, what was it, a two euro cappuccino's and you're like, oh, this is so good. And then you come in here, five dollar latte that's like, you're like, oh, yeah, I'll get the tall or grande and then it's like this big. You're like, what?

They're very clever, the marketing. If you notice, there's no regular. I know. It's tall, grande and venti. Venti? Yeah. And what does it venti even mean? I don't even know what Vente means in Italian.

I'm guessing it's the town. Italian, but I don't even know I don't know. But like tall is any of like, this is normal. I know, it's like this big. I don't. There's no small exactly. It's very, very clever marketing. I know.

But yeah, but it's good. Still to be here. We're going to have some different topics today. We'll talk to some sports. We'll talk some finance topic. We'll just do, you know, a whole range of topics. The whole range of topics on today and manana. I love being here on the I Love Seville Network set. Love, of course, our

partners, emerging financial services, Matthias Yon Realty, Florida Delante, all are great. Yeah, Nick and I were lucky enough. We got to see Matisse's wife and a beautiful daughter. A couple weeks back at the Blue Mountain Brew, he brought his leaderhosen. Yeah, it was so cool.

We were trying to get him to run on the show. He didn't want to do it, but it was, and there was a number of people actually kind of too had like the little German stuff. Yeah, so it really is. You know, Nick and I didn't have the German hat, so the best we did was we brought out like a little Italian hats because it was a nice sunny warm day.

No, not the berets. The Italian summer. Yes, exactly. I forget what you call those. But, yes, that was kind of like our best version. It didn't quite fit, but still, you know. You got to get those little ones with the feather. Yes, exactly.

You know, I don't think we are German enough to actually do the later housing. But you married into a German family, so maybe we could spread, you know? You visited your in-laws and, like, Bavaria and stuff like that. No, but I'm at zero percent German. That's okay. if you drink enough German beer maybe you can help it

it's DNA exactly I will definitely do that I definitely drink enough German beer yeah to do that but they really have

such a great time because they do do those festivals I think they have a music festival in my wife's hometown yeah and they all just up again

they always find a good excuse to dress up in the traditional stuff again we've had these discussions kind of before I wish American culture

adopted a little more that they always have a festival they're always trying to find a reason to sell which is actually a good thing because then you get like community together

and everyone's having a good time and it gives you something to look forward to and it was nice because you went to the Blue Mountain and they kind of had like the little I always called the umpa lumpa music because I can forever what the name of it is. I think it is called umpa band. Umpa band, okay, yeah.

But they kind of like playing the music so you're kind of like there and they had like the German beer and like the German dishes and then you're like, you know, this feels nice you're seeing all these families out, all the kids running around. It's very pretty out there.

Yes. You know, especially this time of year. I know. The leaves are starting to change power. Yes. I'm changing. I know. I'm going to get all the visitors to the Shenandoah. I know. A couple of times, remember, you Nick and I have gone out there. I always made a rule, though. I was always like, we got to get up really early and we got to get that like 8 o'clock. We would get there at 8.30, 9 o'clock. Yep. You did one of the few parking spots. Well, there's not that many cars. There's usually like two or three cars. So you're like, okay, this is pretty good. It's freezing in the morning. So that's the only thing. You have to like prepare to be bunk. up in the morning and then by the afternoon you got to take it off because it's starting to get warmer but it's the same thing we walk to the top nice not too many people you kind of got in you got that nature feel of it and we're a big little of the rings fan so we always

kind of feel like oh my gosh the leaves on the ground it's like a rivendell i'm on hen kind of feel to it yeah exactly you're humming the music as you're going for a while you had the wooden watching stitch yes i still do i still got it oh yeah you never switched to the well every once in a while I did because my mom got him so I wanted to show that I was using them but yeah

the big wooden stick yeah if there's a lot of mountain climbing I won't bring the big one stick because then it's a hassle then I carry

this big wood stick but if it's just trekking then I'm more than happy to bring the big wooden stick and you know like Gandalf for a little bit exactly you know

or like the Hobbit you know probably more it'll be a small small wooden stick well it depends relative to this yeah you're right

okay we'll go with the Gandolf walk and stick you know the end of what is it but it's beautiful yeah but then to get back to the store, but on the way down, suddenly it's people after people, after people.

And then by the- You get to the parking lot and you realize there was a train of cars parked on the side for like a mile. I know. You would have to basically walk a mile to get to the start of the hike. Yeah. Which is crazy. Yeah. And to be honest, that's why I've always kind of pushed to go early.

Because for me, when I want to go hiking in nature, I don't really want a lot of people. Like, I kind of don't want to see people. You don't want it to feel like you're in a theme park. Yeah, you know, and then other people are talking to say, like, you want to enjoy nature, the quiet. You want to hear, like, the wind blow through the thing. You want to hear the birds. You want to hear the crumble the leaves.

Also, when you're running to, like, the hard-tor Appalachian Trail. Yeah, those people are... And you'll be walking, and then you'll see the sky calming. You have the huge bad pat. And, you know, a lot of times, like, nice big, scruffy beard, and you're like, this dude has been walking the Appalachian Trail. He is a true... But he's the perfect one because he's quiet.

He's not sitting there talking, chat. Somebody they don't even speak. Right? They'll kind of just like nod. Yeah, exactly. You know, you acknowledge your fellow hiker and then that's it. But, yeah, when the crowds are coming. You feel like, oh, you're here at 8.30. You're a real man.

For a moment, you feel like, oh, I'm a real man. Maybe he thought we slept there too, so you never know. He was like, it was a fellow respect. I'm going to get up probably. My friends are way too small. I've done that. But at least for a moment, you feel like one of those hardcore people was like, okay. You were also semi-hardcore.

You know, and I'm going to sound like a scrooge here, too, but I always like to, too, because I get to beat the kids. You know, I'm happy to have kids and the child, just not when I'm there, you know, because this is the noise and everything. And then you're sitting there, you've got to wait for one kid to come down. Come on, Tommy, you can do it, you can do, and you just stay in there, you know. It's like, I got to get going. It's like, I got to keep moving. I go up, and then I go back down. There's no stop.

You're like, I'll stop like a couple minutes and join this year, but I got to keep moving, you know. Exactly. Well, as a parent now, I can't complain about the kids anymore. No, but yeah, but my niece and nephew are different. They're excluded from that category. They don't count. Exactly. Yeah, my child is too good.

Exactly. That's how we always feel. Everyone else's children are too. That's nice. Mine's quiet. Exactly. Speaking of which, Dr. Elizabeth Irby is watching, along with Maria Earpie, is watching the show this morning.

So a bit hello to my beautiful Maria, my beautiful wife. She's probably looking at the TV, too, like, what's Daddy doing? Maybe that would be fun. That would be fun if she was like, oh, dad. Yeah, but she does that whenever she's easy on the phone. When you do a video girl, she does smile. She does smile. You know, so they kind of, it's funny how they can.

They can see it. Yeah. They can't even through the phone. And then we've got, uh, Nidlis Erbby is actually, uh, watching. The Tom Ton Foundation mentioned today, Moniana, so we appreciate that. That's always cool. And, uh, Monita Miller from Montana is tuning in. I knew, I knew Monica would be watching.

Oh, yes, he's one of our favorite, our favorite viewers. among other reasons why she's our favorite but he's very loyal and dedicated. She heard us talking about the October press and the Lidavito's and she's like, oh. There we go. Yeah. So that was really enjoyable.

And I think there's going to be a lot more opportunities not the falls here to go out, enjoy the weather, enjoy the time. Yeah. I've noticed it's been cool enough that some of the buds are dying. Yes. Well, you had an infestation of the spotted land.

Yeah, I mean, I just to talk about infestation not that they invaded my house or anything. But they went on the, outside because how many did you have Crozay had tons of them yeah but give a number this where people are like 40

that's an infestation I'm sorry yeah I don't want me to do my house start like they laid eggs in my house or anything they just come to sit yeah but they swarm yeah they swarm the front of your house

because I think what happens it gets hot so they want to get out of the heat of the plants and they just say oh good he's got shade and I hate it because in the morning when I would want to go out on my deck and have a cup of coffee

they're on my deck and I'm like they're enjoying my debt in the afternoon when I come home they're no longer on my debt but now they're on the front of my house I'm like they're enjoying my house more than I am

it's crazy but now they are definitely dying so that is always it's kind of funny too because you're having a bad year for spotlight for us usually where we live we have bad stink bug season this day or so it was not bad or not bad

now last year was bad like we had a lot of stink bugs we were having the same thing it's like you get to the door there's like 10 of them You have to spray them down and then you're like Okay, one, two, three, run in Because the stink bugs want to get to your house

That's the problem They're trying to get in They'll land on you to get into your house It's they fly at you I hate those things But this year was not bad at all So I'm hoping that the cold winter Helped like kill the number of them

Maybe as things adjust So maybe that's what will happen Other preachers will adjust To the spotted lantern flies And maybe eating them Yeah And that will help The birds are

I remember like the first few years Like we had the stink bugs The same thing Like never saw a bird eating them then we start seeing the birds coming to eat them. The birds, the praying mantises. The prey mantises, yeah. Those guys are on anything, let's be honest.

Which is good. I'll take them because they don't try to come in. And they really don't do anything to bother you because they're so slow. They're just creepy, that's all. Yeah, they're creepy. But you never have to worry, like, this praying mantis do, like, fly and land on me. No. They barely even move.

I will give the spot of the lantern flies. That only credit. They don't, they're not aggressive in the sense that I've never seen them actually fly and fly to fly. Like, stink bugs are aggressive in the sense that they'll flage. Plus, they also know when you're trying to kill them. Like, you'll start spraying them, and then they'll fly at you. Like, they get angry that you're trying, like, they know you're trying to kill them. And they'll fly at you.

It's not like they have any actually attack mechanism. They, like, all they do is just land on you, but obviously they know how creepy they are. So when they land on you, you're like, ah. Exactly. You know. And you can't, and they know that you can't kill them. I know because they can't just like, go like this because you will stink. Well, they also, they also, I also learned that they actually released the stench too.

when they feel I'm threatened, which is why sometimes you could smell them, even though you haven't killed. Yes, they're kind of like a skunk bug in some ways. Because they shoot, they shoot out that smell. At least the spot on lancers,

at least to my knowledge, I don't think they have any smell. No, they don't have a smell. Yeah. Yeah. It's funny. They just, the cold,

now I open my door and there's like, it's a graveyard in front of my house. There's like 20 dead ones and I'm like, I didn't do it. Yeah. I'm in a sense. Not that you'd feel guilty if you did.

Yeah, not that I would feel bad if I did. But like, just for the record, I didn't kill 20 spotted later Yeah, Pete that don't come after Alex In the middle of the night Yeah I didn't go out there in the dark

And like hammer them So that's been You know Good That we're entering that phase of you Yes And with fall two Comes football

I know We want to talk A little UVA football I know Five and one At long last I know Well NIA we ranked

In the top 25 When someone told me that I was like No there's no 18 18 I know Which it almost doesn't even It feels

surreal in some ways. When we were one and one having lost to NC State, I would not have believed. No. You're like, okay, yeah, we can beat the lousy teams, but Well, like, the offense looked good, so we're like, okay, the office is finally looking good. But the defense wasn't looking so good, but they really turned around. I think what stepped up, I think the

secondary still has some flaws. Yeah, we give up a lot big place. The pass rush is proving itself to be good enough. That's what really won us the game in some ways against Florida State was that pass rush. Because again, every once in a while you give up the deep pass.

I went to a game where we played, I think it was Willie Mary. Well, like some, we'll like knock that game. The only, the only knock was that when I was watching, I was like, damn, it was like they were getting some deep pass plays. I was like, you know, now granted, they couldn't really stop us or it became irrelevant, but I was noticed and I was like, ah, it's like, William Mary is getting like a 75 FDF yard touchdown pass against you. That's not, it's not ideal, no.

Exactly. But here we are, beat Florida State, beat Florida State, beat, Louisville. And now, I mean, basically, if they, I mean, winning out is hard. Yeah. But if you win out, you can actually go to the ACC championship degree at this point. I mean, winning out is not impossible. There's some tricky games ahead.

Obviously, Washington State were, I think they have us like a 10-point favorites or something. That's like really, really high. Is that, that's at home? Yes, yeah, that's here. Okay. Yeah, Washington State, I think, is definitely beatable. Yeah, the tough one's probably going to be, obviously, Virginia Tech. always ends up being tough.

It doesn't seem like they're so bad this year, but it doesn't even matter how bad they are. No. They are going to probably come into that game thinking we can beat UVA. Plus, exactly, it will be their Super Bowl this year because they ain't going bowling. No.

So they are going to come into that game and say if we can beat UVA and ruin their season. That makes our season. I know. You always have to be careful with that. And then there's also, there's still, we have to go to UNC, you know, Now, UNC hasn't been good this year, but still, the Belichick is coach. And then we have to play Duke.

At Duke is going to be, I think his dude actually is playing well this year. Yes, I know I noticed. So Ad Duke is probably going to be, that's probably the hardest remaining game. Yeah. In terms of actual opponent. In terms of actual opponent talent. It's on jinx this weekend, but yeah. No, but I mean, not this year, because Washington State's no pushover.

No, they got close last week. Who did they play? Ole Miss, yes, and it was a close. game. It was like a three-point game or something like that. An oldest as he see ranked. So Washington State's not a pushover.

UNC looks really dysfunctional right now. I mean, there's no time if Belichick turns it around, but they look pretty bad. And I would agree, but again, road games, it's always going to be tricky. Yeah. In terms of the talent on the field, Duke is the best remaining team. Doesn't mean the others aren't good, but Duke is the best

of the ones we will play. But yeah, I mean, we're looking good. Morris looks good. Yeah, it's exciting too to have points is always the most exciting football so when you have a really good offense I think it gets people to the stadium and it's nice to see like that florida state game man the stadium was packed the way they rushed the field i mean it was they were like it's the fastest like rush to field ever it was like oh man they were so heater to rush the field i'm like when you haven't beaten a top 10 team at home in two decades then yes you're going to be pretty

And with some really close near misses. With some years where you thought you would do. We were at the Notre Dame. We were at both of those. We were at the Notre Dame under, was it Manden Hall still? No, no, that was with London. London. Yes.

You're 40 seconds away. I know. With a fourth down and you lose. And then the Louisville name, same thing. There was like a minute left. And I'm pretty sure they also had a fourth and five as much they died. And they got a touchdown pass. And I know, it's devastating.

So, I mean, when you've. been there, yes, you're going to be a little over-eager to rush the field. But if anybody deserves to rush the field, it would be UVA that hasn't done it in 20 years. At home.

Yeah. And listen, everyone made it out alive and okay, so in the end, you know, no harm, no foul. There's a couple of people got hurt, but, you know. Well, I felt bad for the receiver who dropped the ball in. So one person made, like, the little joke ever said the memes, he said he showed, like, the guy must have been like a Simba. You ever see Simba? Like, in the line,

Or with the stampede. Yeah, he sees the stampede. Other people just started coming out. The minute he dropped the ball, like, ah, you know. But yeah, that was a great win for the program. That was a huge win. You know, and hopefully it builds their confidence week in and week out. Louisville was a big win too, but that could easily have been a letdown game.

Especially when it was overtime again. But they pulled it out and end up the win. And that put themselves in a very good position. Yeah. You know. keep our fingers crossed and I've been hearing about UVA basketball that a lot of people are excited about the year because they think they're going to have a sleeper yes because they think we're going to have a really good offense you know they like people like the coach and they

apparently I haven't been falling basketball yes you know so they're expecting some big things because remember talking that some gentleman we know who like parked the cars and they say they're actually expecting a busy year oh that would be nice because they're expecting a lot people come out because they're going to get excited about the new office offense, you know? Because I mean, listen, we would be a very big Tony Bennett fans. You know, it's just the problem is with, in terms of pure entertainment, people want to see points and want to see scoring. Tony Bennett was a different structure. Well, you know what is? I think the, it's easy to put fans in the seats with a defensive style of play when you were a top

10 team consistently. So I mean, we were consistently one of the best teams of the country under Tony Bennett. I think the problem is when you fall out and you're no one of the top. You know, longer one of the best teams of the country, then the super slow pace defense is not as interesting to people because it's like you're not exciting and you're not winning as much. Yeah, it's exciting when you're winning. Yeah. And in those days, we also, like, at the end of Tony Bennett, we had good defenses, but no longer the crazy great defenses. The defense thing is exciting when like, you're coming in there like, man, the other team only stored like 28 points in the whole game. That's like, that's crazy good. Yeah. When it's like, oh,

the only, we won 55 to 50. I'm saying, that's not as, not as interesting. Yeah. You know, especially when you would lose, you know, 5248, you're like, now it's really not fun

to lose 5248. So I think this will get some, because I think he plays a faster pace, Odom. And is it Odom? I don't remember the name of the code. Ryan Odom, yeah, okay, I thought so. I thought so.

Thank you. It's always detention. Yeah, Jerry, yeah. Jerry keeps kidding. He keeps very good track. Jerry and Jerry is on Tuesdays. Yes. So they keep very good track to all things.

I knew I didn't want to mix them up with the die that used to be in the later's Lamar Odom. Oh, me, Alex, it's way back. It's way back. Well, everything I know about NBA is probably way back. It's way back. I don't follow it too much. Prehistoric. Yeah, prehistoric age of the NBA. So when the Spurs stopped winning, I stopped.

Yeah. But you used to follow the Knicks a little bit. what we're having. Following the Knicks is five dead age Fuling the Nix is a lot like following the mess. You're always prepared for like the worst possible like you're prepared for that they'll actually look like they'll actually do something

then but in the end just have the same result as they always do which is just have some miraculous failure or something like that you know. Exactly. I just remember it was five dead days of futility. You know so but you know but you can't give up hope. You can't even

you know that's why I think you know you'll be basketball. I know it was rough when Tony Bennett retired, but I think we'll come back. I think we'll bounce back on that. Hopefully baseball can do the same. Baseball Yeah, baseball.

The Duke coach that we stole, the coach we stole from Duke of all places is well regarded. Yeah, I know. Just that whole situation still kind of leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. It does. You know, because O'Connor, yeah, he's been with us just so long and had so much success and just it feels

Yeah, it's just one of those super in and it splitable things that Tony Bennett, in retrospect, you were like, oh, you know what, that kind of made sense? A lot of great coaches have felt like the new structure of college sports is just not the same. Not the same for them, yeah.

Whether it's because the players are getting paid or whether because they could just literally just transfer from any school without having to like sit a year, I think that has not sat well with a lot of good coaches. I mean, I think Coach Kay, I bet you that's part of the reason we're retired. Coach Saban has definitely said that's the reason he stopped.

And these were guys with massive success. And I think Tony Bent was kind of feeling the same pressure. I mean, it's like every year you just had like all a new team. And it's just like when you're trying to teach them defense and kind of fundamentals have play basketball, it's like you need to save more than one year. You need to, you know, our best teams was when you had the third year and the fourth years, the seniors. You know, we won the championship. It was because, you know, Kyle Guy and Jerome and.

We were both senior, well, maybe third or four. They were third year, I think. Yes. And Hunter, they had been there at least a couple of years, so they had a rate of time going on the sister. You can't just come one year and then be like, okay, I didn't wait now, I'm switching, and then someone else comes in. It's like, you're never going to learn that way.

And I think he felt used. There were a couple big prospects that tame, redshirted, and then said, thank you very much, Mr. Bennett. I'm getting a nice big deal from this other school, and I'm leaving. And it's like, you kind of just feel used. I mean, you never even played for me. Yeah. You know, so that one I think was.

not a shocker in retrospect. The, the, the, the, the, the, Tocotanar still strikes me as a shocker in the sense that like, this is a guy who turned down Texas to stay here and then left. And then when we go, Mississippi State. Yeah. Just, oh, yeah, still. Still, still is a shocker. But what, what can you do there?

So we'll see what happens there. And then, yeah, and then hopefully, I guess women swimming and diving will probably still keep winning. And then maybe he can carry it over to the men's. Yeah. so it's a good I think it's a better time than any time

the last two, three years to be a UBA fan. Yeah, like we've been saying the sun's peeking through the clouds now for UVA sports so you know, we were definitely a little worried we'd had conversations probably

about like, okay, is this new college out that's getting paid? Dembsville has this is going to hurt some like second tier schools like UVA at least when it comes to sports and education but hopefully things are kind of like turning around there so that would be nice.

That's nice. That will be nice. You know, and I know you wanted to talk a little finance. Did you talk to some finance? I figure, you know, did some, you know, some finance topics in.

I mean, there's a couple things that have been happening, and I just think it was worth kind of commenting. In particular, I think just interesting to continue to see total, the complete transformation in, I mean, we still

have people that walk into the office. And I'm like, am I up this year? And we're like, yeah, you're up the show. And they're like, what about April? And you're like, April went down for two weeks. The market has been up since April, and it was up before April. And I think just seeing the total transformation in how the economy, economists, Federal Reserve people are looking at the tariff situation. And it's, I don't want to say a complete 180, because I think you will still find your people who are your die hard tariffs will never work. You cannot get anyone to come to negotiate with you if you put tariffs on them. But I think what we have seen is you can. Yeah. Like you actually can threaten Europeans with tariffs

and get them to make a deal for you that it was stunning. I was pleased with that. I mean, you literally had the Dardium, which is like a British newspaper, saying that Ursula Vanderlay and the European administrator did a terrible job negotiating because Europe got crushed by. the deal that they made. And I'm like, well, as an American, that's a good thing. Because if Europe is unhappy with their trade deal, that means we probably got a good deal.

And then you looked into some of the numbers. And you see, indeed, I mean, they are going to be buying American cars for way less than. I mean, American cars were all but priced out of Europe. It's so funny right to hear people say, oh, you should never put tariffs on automobiles. And I'm like, the Europeans have had like a 15, 20 percent tariff on American automobiles for 20 years. and it doesn't seem to have hurt them very much. Yeah, and all you have to do is ever go to Europe to figure that out because you come here and, of course, you see European cars here.

You see Chrysler's, well, now owned by, right? You see Chrysler owned by Fiat. Yeah. You see, what's the, is the Land Rover that's British? For that one of those, Range Rover, one of those guys, right? You see a lot of European cars. You go to Europe, they're all fiats. Yes.

Fiat, Mercedes-Benz. You do not see American, why? But you can't afford an American car in Europe because they're tariffs on it, right? Those have dropped tremendously. So I think the transformation, and now I think the last piece to fall is China, right? Because, and the tricky part about China is, do you actually want to make a deal with them? Because I'm not sure I want us to go back to 10% tariff on Chinese goods, because that's not enough to get companies to stop producing the stuff in China with slave labor and start making it here. Well, hasn't Trump proposed like 100%?

They're at 100, yeah, that's the one that's the turn. If they don't make a deal, I mean, they're sitting at like 100, right? And I think Besson said today that we're still kind of in a trade war with China functionally. And I think the point is, okay, we talked about trade war like it's this bad thing. But if the other die is undercutting you with people making $1 an hour, are they not in a trade war with you already? right so the question is not oh did I am I in a question is not do I start a trade war with China

by putting tariffs on them the question is am I already in a trade world with China I just haven't been acting like it and I'll be honest too there's nothing that China makes for us that I say okay this is critical that and rarely and if they do make anything critical that they shouldn't be changed already

because we had this discussion way back when during COVID remember we found out how many our health care like equipment products were coming from China we're like why are we getting this stuff from China? We shouldn't be getting this. We should be making this stuff here. And we saw for a very good reason.

Yes, because during the pandemic, suddenly it's like, yeah, we don't want to send it to you or we're going to charge you extra, you know, to send it to it. So we need to switch it. After that, what does China really do? They make a lot of cheaper, you know, plastic products. They made a lot of technological parts that then did assembled in the United States.

Okay. But you sit there and you say, I mean, I don't think anybody believed Apple CEO cook when he said that all you know the quality of the labor in China they're so good at skilled at making the small chips that eventually

end up in iPhones and people are like so you tell me Americans are so dumb you can't train your own citizens to so in other words you're not in China it's kind of even worse you're telling me you're not even in China because it's cheaper you're telling me that you don't you can't train Americans to do something that China can train there

workers to do. And everyone was like, do I really, do I buy that? I mean, you're telling me Americans are, you're essentially telling me the Americans are stupid and they can't be trained to make these technological parts that you then assemble. But they're smart enough to assemble them. Yeah. But they're not smart enough to make them. So I think that's the last chip that we kind of have to see where it goes. Yeah, I just think it's funny because I think the problem with economists is that they were given this impression that the tariffs would cause such massive inflation that the whole economy

would collapse and then like the stock model will collapse and I think the problem is we've seen a number even our own clients come in believing that scenario to basically be like a reality like whether it's like a reality right now or whether they'll be like expected it's like oh did the market crash I lose on my money it's like no like

that's not that's not going to A that didn't happen like some people come in thinking that happens like no it didn't happen because they saw April like you said they're like April's like, oh, I must have lost all my money. It's like, no. It went down. Now it's been up for the past six months since, right? And then they also have this

rally that like they think, oh, no, no, eventually it's going to crash because inflation is going to show. Inflation hasn't shot up. Every month, remember the Fed will be like, well, we can more lower because we think of it. And finally they did. Yeah, they finally think it's like the inflation. If the autonomy struggles that's near,

it's not going to be because we saw a 10% spike in prices. It's going. to be because the consumer finally ran out of money because they have $1 trillion of consumer debt. That's going to be why. In other words, it's going to be a demand

slowdown where the consumer is like, I cannot buy more things. I ran out of buying now pay later. My credit card is matched. Is that still a problem? It's still a possibility. I mean, it has a consumer debt has not gone down. The problem

with inflation is why we just talked about buy inflation is so perfidious, right, is because, okay, from 2020 to 2024, if you sum up the inflation, you're talking about somewhere between 25 to 30 percent increase in the price level. Inflation is now down to 2.3, I think it was, somewhere a little higher than 2. So inflation is down from 9 all the way down to 2, right? The problem is that's not negative. Yes, it's still going on. That doesn't mean prices go down.

never go back down. It's recessions that sometimes and depressions that make prices go down. But prices have not come down. They're just not increasing as much. But that's what happens. When you bring inflation back down, you don't undo,

you can't undo the inflation that happened. So you're sitting here saying everything is still 25% more expensive than it was four or five years ago. Right? I can't make that magically disappear. Nor would you on to. I mean, nobody's going to be like, let me cause the depression

so I can make prices go down, right? So you can't make this. So now the issue is if people were buying things with credit cards, what happens when you can't do that anymore? You just, you have too much credit card debt. And we're sitting at about like a trillion there.

So, I'm sorry, we were at a trillion on January 1st of this year. Yeah. And I don't think it's done down since then. But I think my point being is that Xavier talks about this all the time. what debts you, the next recession is always going to be caused by the thing that you didn't think was going to cause it. And I remember in the whole 2010s, it was always the housing crisis, oh, we're going to have another one, right?

2020, oh, housing prices, they're going up so much. What are we going to do? And Dave, you would always say, no, the next recession is not going to be the housing bubble. Because everyone's looking at, you're watching to see the housing bubble. And I think it's going to be similar here. everyone's like has the magnifying glass on the tariffs

and the recession is probably going to be caused by this thing back here which you're not looking at and which is going to hit you and say oh that's what that's what it was that was going to cause it and I mean I can't say what it is but there's probably a greater than a 50% chance

and it could be the tariffs but there's a greater than 50% chance it's not going to be because everyone has a magnifying glass on that everyone is baking that into their expectations. Everyone is looking out for it. Everyone's trying to figure out if it's going to cause a problem. And it's trying to probably be this other thing that no one's thinking about that actually causes a problem.

You think that's credit or debt? Could be credit or debt. Now that I said it won't be housing, it could be housing. Housing caused a problem. So it's probably going to be a mystery. What about student loan debt? Because that's... It could be that.

Yeah. That's off the table as far as that deading wiped off the map. We probably wouldn't have solved that problem anyway. It's possible. One of the dirty little secrets of student loan debt is that most of it is held by actual people who made a whole bunch of money. Because the highest student loan debt holders is like lawyers, doctors, et cetera. And so you're like, well, your income eventually compensates for that, right? The risk of your student loan debt is people who dropped out.

That's where you get into trouble. You have the subset of people who dropped out or failed and now also have $100,000, $200,000 of student loans, as opposed to the doctor who has $300,000 of student loans, but he's going to make $250,000 a year. It's like, okay, you will eventually get rid of that debt. So that's a tricky one. It could be a problem.

I think it may fall into that kind of consumer. debt, student loan debt category. You know, may tie into housing to someone's like, well, I can't get a mortgage because I have student loan debt, so I'm renting. And I really can't afford to be renting. So it's so many pieces that intertwine

and interconnect. There. And we had to, I, we talk, Ricardo's out in Virginia Beach now. I ran into him at this past week. Yes. Did you, oh, you read, I ran into him on this past week. did you really? I ran into a couple weeks back at the

the Subroso Festival. That's what it was. Oh, yes. Yes. So by the way, he told me he was doing well, though. I know. I'm very big fans of Rotardo. Yeah. He's a great guy. One of these days, I don't think we've ever been to Virginia Beach. You know, we've lived in Virginia now

what, 15, 16 years? I guess William's Bird, your town, Jameson doesn't count. That's how Virginia Beach is in the beach. I don't think I've ever been. No, I've never been. been there. It's kind of crazy. I just confessions on today,

manana. I know. I've never... I guess you can just chalked that up to our loyalty for Charlottesville and Central Virginia. We have not betrayed you for Virginia Beach.

What does we just can't visit? I mean, but now would probably be a great time to go if you just didn't want to swim in the water. Yeah, as long as you don't want to swim in the water, that's a, I'm sure you're chilling. At this point, yeah. At this point, beach season is probably...

My dad always used to say because it used to kind of in the New York, New Jersey area kind of go to beach, you always see September is actually a really nice time year because the water actually got the warmest. So even though the weather itself wasn't as warm as July or August, the water was warmer.

The water was warmer, actually. Warmer than July... Yes, the water gets warmer, so in some ways it was easier to go into the water. A lot of people do, Virginia Beach in the Outer Banks. Oh, actually, I have been One time Oh, you did?

Yes, the camping trip in 2021 But you were sick Oh So that was your one chance Oh Did you go in the water? Yes, it did I did go in the water

It was on the beach It wasn't tentatively called Virginia It wasn't the one with the boardwalk Yeah But it was like one of those state parks That's on Virginia Beach You traitor Oh, okay

One without your little brother You should stay at home if I was sick I mean, once Niki betrayed you, I said I might as well No, well, Nicky was, Nicky's betrayed you. Nick, he's very easily who betrayed us. I should call him nit on the air, nit. It was often, but, oh, Ricardo says, Miss you guys, and so nice to run into great leaders of the community and good friends.

Oh, same here, Ricardo. You know, I'm sure he's proving himself a leader in, in, uh, I have no doubt of it. No doubt of it. Yes, those were just a couple things that I was thinking about as far as the economy. is going you know we talked about it there did you did you ask Xavier about his economic outlook for 2026 or

no yeah we discussed it a little bit we just kind of our shutdown outlook you know that I think and I think that's kind of proven true I mean I'm pretty sure the market market doesn't seem to really care about that it's been up I think I'm probably one of those things you know

you you doodle something halfway through the while on live on the show because I'm pretty sure sure. Listen, I've always we've had this conversation before. Go ahead. Yeah. In the last month, the market's up

2%. Yeah. I'm telling you, 1.4. When it comes to political stuff, I don't think the market really cares. And being honest, we've been through government shutdowns before. I think sometimes it's a testament to sometimes, in my opinion, how inefficient government is that it can actually shut down and people's

like, I don't even know it's to shut down. Yeah, exactly. It's like. Well, and apparently the longest one was 35. days in the 2010s or something and I'm like, I don't even remember the 35 day shutdown. Well, I don't remember that there was a shutdown, but I didn't remember that it was

35 days. And I don't think we're anywhere close to 35 yet. I think we have a ways to know. Let's see what day of government shutdown is it? I'm surprised it's not like a CNN tracker that they got

like, you know, 14 days. 16. I mean, we're not even halfway there. We're not even halfway there yet. Yeah. So, and again, I think what people need to keep in mind is the stock market and the bond market are forward-looking entities. Meaning, and you think about this just yourself, right? When you go buy a stock, do you buy a stock because it went up for the last year or because you think it will go up for the next year? Right? No one would buy, no one doesn't buy a stock. Tasta was really good last year. Well, I'm not sure about it. Some people are like, I bought this because it's been up. But they think because it was up. Yes, right?

No one says, I want to buy Tos. I think it's going to be down over the next year, but I'm going to buy it because it was really good last year. No, you buy it to the extent that you tear that it was up last year, it's because you think that gives you proof that it will be up next year. You think that past performance gives you an idea as to future results, right? So you buy, you yourself do things forward looking. I buy.

stock because I think it will go up. Well, the market does the same thing. The market says, I am going to buy stocks, which pushes the stock market up, because I think that things will get better over the next month, year, three years, five years, then they are at this precise moment, right? If the market didn't think that, right, then it would have gone down in advance. So you look at something like the shutdown, right? The market knew that there was going to be, if you read the news, you knew that there was going to probably be a shutdown. You also knew

that it probably was not going to be for a day. Right? So that's baited in. So it's not as though the day of the shutdown, everyone in the start market waits up and says, oh my gosh, there's a government. That's possible? Let me sell my stocks. Yeah. If you were going to sell your stocks, you sold them two weeks

beforehand. Yeah. Right? And so I think that's that's baited in. And the same thing happened with the interest rates when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rate it's not as though the mortgage rate just drops that day does everyone in the bomb market says they lowered rates the mortgage rate has to come down so the mortgage rate slowly went down in the month leading several months leading up to the actual dropping the rate does the market say I think they're

going to lower rates yeah right doesn't mean there can't still be shockers like there could be an unknown thing that no one knew was going to happen which suddenly occurs you know that's how you get like, you know, spikes in the price of oil. It's like, oh, this war started that I had no clue that this guy was going to just randomly bombed this other guy, right? But to the extent that you know it's going to happen, that's why, you know,

the classic example, the market went up the day that Russia invaded Ukraine. You would sit there and say, how is that possible? You would think that this would qualify as a major negative world event. Well, no, because for two weeks and the month leading up to him

every day on the news, there are massive Russian troops sitting on the border of Ukraine. So anyone with half a brain was like, well, there might be a war. You know, you usually don't put all these troops on the border of another country only to them not invade, right? So the market had baked it in, and on the actual day, there was no unexpected news, which would cause you to say, there was nothing which would cause you to say, yesterday, I thought the market was this price, but today, everything has changed.

It's like, no, not really. Yesterday, I already expected that this might happen. Yeah. So that's something that I think people need to keep in mind. The market, just like you, as a consumer, right, is not doing things saying, I only care what happened yesterday. It's saying, I am guessing what is going to happen tomorrow. And if what happens tomorrow indeed matches my expectations, then nothing's going to change. So that's just something to, I think, keep in mind when you're thinking about the outlooks.

You know, there are very, it doesn't mean there can't be black swans, but it's the black swans that affect things, not the well-known white swan that I saw coming a mile away. So that's kind of, that's the thinking there. but yeah so that's that's our finance topic yeah we cover a lot of ground today we did you know we always do we always manage you and I

we just start talking we just start talking we we managed to to fill some some time you know so that's and hopefully entertained our viewers hopefully entertained some viewers you know they've used some things to think about they've used some

reasons to go see some UVA sports you know It's, it's, I mean, look, it's enjoyable to watch, you know, they'd live sports. So I would encourage people, you know, get out there, enjoy the weather. If it's not football. Do you talk about yourself, too? I mean. I'm talking about myself, too.

I really should. I really should. You know, I have to see if, uh, if the wife and baby. Alex needs the permission slip now. I need a little bit of the permission slip from the, uh, well, mostly from the baby. Elizabeth, my wife is great, so she's always like, oh, you know, you're the bad. You know, James Watson makes the good point.

That's for watching the show. Yeah, where you will see the impacts on the shutdown is not necessarily in Charlottesville, but with people, you know, Virginia Beach, Washington, in other words, if you were employed or had the second order of Fets, yeah. That's where you're going to see the impact, right? I think we're thinking more,

if you're looking at the vast economic steel, your impact isn't immediately noticeable there. But yeah, if you're employed, I mean, we have some clients. If you're employed by the federal government, you're waiting on your next paycheck. Now, the irony is

the slight difference from the private checker is that your paycheck will come when it ends, right? You get the back pay as opposed to like you're laid off and now you're permanently not there. But yeah, the The T is, it's the classic where government spending comes in, right? If you're not working for the government, your impact is much less noticeable there.

Yeah. You know, especially the federal government, is it so vastly removed from local politics there. So that's where you'll see, that's where you'll see the impact. But again, the long-term picture is dependent on what kind of debt happens in those few weeks. Because you always get that back pay, that kind of, the government spending always comes back. It is delayed, but it doesn't actually disappear, which would happen, like, you know, the point of recessions, right? You lose private sector spending, it goes into savings. Government spending, it doesn't do into savings, it returns to government spending when you looked at the GDP equation.

So that's the major difference there. But excellent point. But already, this would have been a great show. Yeah, I was happy to be here with you, Alex. Always enjoyable, yeah, to be on with you, to enjoy the time. And we'll have, this time we will see people in a couple weeks. Ah, okay. So, it'll be close to Halloween at that point.

This might be a final one for October, though, isn't it? We might be back in November. October 30th. Oh, October 30th, okay. We'll be back the day before Halloween. Ah, okay. Yeah, don't expect the costumes. we don't really do

we leave the costumes to Jerry and Keith they can Are we still going to do Batman and Robin again Or we changing it Oh I'm going to

Okay Yeah Yeah Mm-hmm Mm-hmm Alfred Oh we did it some Alfred

Oh we did the whole team The whole team I bet it Alfred Than Batgirl I guess I guess Judah does remind me of an Alfred in the sense

that he's got the big computer I know when Alfred has like the huge bat computer and he's doing all the things Batman's in the machine but like Alfred's actually driving the Batmobile I feel like that's kind of us we're sitting here spouting our mouths off and Jude is actually driving the whole

show and he's like this camera and then this camera and then this live stream and then switch to this shot right and that's absolutely what's moving and we're kind of just sitting there looking cool and you know going like this on the wheel as though we're driving. Yeah.

But yeah. So it'll be, it'll be fun. So we'll see everyone the day before Halloween. Before Halloween, okay. It's been enjoyable and looking forward to it.

Thanks for everyone who commented, sent some questions. Yep. Always appreciate it. Always appreciate being here with you. Same here out. The camera. Always love when Jerry's in the studio.

Yeah. It's fun. We also get to, you know, helps us keep us on our toes when it comes to sports. And love being here on the Olive's People Network set. Big thank you, of course,

Emergent Financial Services, Matheesio and Realty, all our great partners. Look forward to seeing everyone in a couple weeks. But until that time, as we like to close it out on the show, Asta manana.

That voice. Thank you.