The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Cesar & Trinidad Rivas Joined Michael Urpí & Xavier Urpí On "Today y Mañana!"

Episode Date: May 2, 2024

Cesar & Trinidad Rivas, Co-Owners of F. Rivas Contractor and Cleaning Company LLC, joined Michael Urpí & Xavier Urpí On “Today y Mañana!” “Today y Mañana” airs every Thursday at 10:15 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Today y Mañana” is presented by Emergent Financial Services, LLC, Craddock Insurance Services Inc and Matthias John Realty, with Forward Adelante.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Today, Manana. I'm Michael. I'm happy to be joined by Xavier. We've got a good show for you today and on a beautiful summer day. It's been gorgeous. This whole week has been gorgeous, hasn't it? We could use a little rain, though. Well, it's coming. Saturday, Sunday. You know, just ready for the weekend. I know, but everything's pretty dry out there. I've noticed a lot of people have been complaining.

Some people have had bug issues. I'm not going to name who and what, but there's been some bug issues because it got so dry. All these bugs are swarming. You and I had to experience the other day when we were traveling. Our windshield was full of bugs. Speaking of which, I've got to wash the windshield. All the cars need to be washed.

I thought our car was bad. Sometimes driving around Charlottesville, I see other people having the same problem. Their car is green now. All the cars are green these days. They're all green. I know. It's like the worst thing. I see that and I already feel like I'm starting sneezing.

Some days I wake up in the morning and I'm like, oh, allergies aren't too bad. I go outside two seconds and I'm like, I didn't let go. Excuse me if I have to sneeze or anything like that or I sound like Squidward or something like that because the nasal passages just start getting clogged up. As long as you can see. Exactly, yeah. I've had bad eye allergies

before that left me looking like a pirate. So that wasn't... That would look cool though if you came here with a patch over your eye. That would be cool, but it needs a scar though. If you have just a patch it looks weird. We can fix that too. You kind of get a nice scar. It looks like you lost your eye in war or something like Odin style.

It's like I lost this in battle. Not that I have comfort up because of eye allergies. But as always, we love being presented by Emergent Financial Services and our partners at Matisse Young Realty, Craddock Series Insurance, and of course, Faba. What do we like to do in this video? We like to share and like and, Faba. What do we like to do in this video? Share and like and share and subscribe. There you are. I'm done for the day.

You're done for the day. I know. That was your hard part. I wanted you to get out of the way early. That's why it was kind of like you could ease into it. You caught me by surprise. I'm saying, what's he looking at me for? Well, because last time I had to do that because Alex was here and he kind of pointed at me. And I was like, he's like, like?

I'm like, oh, shit, it's a grab. I was in Xavier's seat. Now I'm in Alex's seat. I just get to point to you. You get to point. I'm the boss now, so that's always fun. You think you're ready to jump into our interview? Yes, we have two wonderful guests here with us.

I can see that they're ready to jump to come and tell their story. So we're really excited to be welcomed by Cesar and Trinidad Rivas from F. Rivas Constructing and Cleaning. Thank you both for coming today. Buenos dias. Buenos dias. Thank you so much for the invitation. Thank you. No, we love having you. Thank you. So kind of to start, just tell us a little bit about yourself and how you started F. Rivas Constructing and Cleaning. Well? My name is Cesar, as you already said, and my wife Trinidad. Trinidad Rivas. We started in

2017. We started to work together and then our objective was to work all the time side by side. We are really happy to say that we did it. We are really happy to say that

we did it. We're still doing it. Do you like working together? Yes. It's amazing. It's without a doubt. And the

letter F is because when we start, we want to be the family working together. So that means the F. Ah, the F stands for family. Family. Some people say Francisco.

No, no, no, no. Family. That's what I thought. When you're a little bit, eh, quizás es Francisco Rivas or algo. Maybe Father Rivas. Father Rivas. That was a good one. Yeah, family. us or maybe father we've asked like that was that was

good yeah family we decide to be together on this trip

and I'm really happy and so proud about her and we I think

that we have been working hard to for family and special for family yes

and then many other families that are involved in this business yeah ¿Cuántas personas trabajan con ustedes? ¿O familias? Familias, ahorita están trabajando cuatro familias. ¿También el esposo y la esposa? El esposo y la esposa. So they've got four families working with them. That's fantastic. And so when you look at construction, right, so what kind of construction is it that you do?

Is there anything that that you're specialized in um when we do when we say construction is because we are involved on on construction but in the cycling apps so we are providing the cleaning to all the construction places where we are not allowed but yes and. And then we do demolitions for some companies. We remove the debris. We sometimes do degradings and different kind of stuff on construction. Okay. And then we have that part where it's residential, just like the interior cleaning, residential cleaning, commercial cleaning, and recurring services.

Okay. And do you split up the duties? Do you kind of focus more on the construction and cleaning? She's on the interior and I'm in the exterior. I was wondering because the demolition sounds more like a man. I was like, okay, blow something up. You can't say those things anymore. You can't say man.

It's more like a fun job. All I know is personally, all I hear about my mother is like, you, blow something up. You can't say those things anymore. You can't say manager. It's more like a fun job. All I know is personally, all I hear about my mother is like, you need to clean your room. It's not clean. I look at my room. It looks fine to me. I don't know. It looks clean.

This much dust. That's okay. You are. I get a fan and I blow it away. That's the same to my son. The same thing, yes. But I got to fix everything. It looks good.

Exactly, yeah. You can be able to walk inside the room. She is the interior side and I am the exterior. We do the pressure washer, the buffer floors for the garages that are finished, and windows both sides.

And then she comes and does all the interior with the team. So you also do pressure washing for houses? Yes. So getting rid of all that green stuff and black stuff that grows in these houses because it's humidity? Yes, we clean the garages. We clean all the face, back, sides. estas casas porque se ve muy bien. Sí, limpiamos el asiento, limpiamos todo el frente, la parte de atrás, el tamaño y luego si el garaje está mirando húmedo o algo, tenemos el bufador, nos fuimos y hicimos que el concreto se vea bien de nuevo. El piso del garaje, no el concreto.

Sí, quiero usar el lavavajillas de presión porque la experiencia es mucho agua the pressure washer because the experience is a lot of water going to the walls and make damage. So better with the buffer floor. Yes. Yes. So usually it's more common in new houses where people have been working there and working with the muddy boots and everything. We got to remove all that and make that garage look like a new.

Exactly. Oh, wow. I didn't even know that existed. I mean, I thought you were just going to sweep it away or whatever. That's your version of cleaning. True. That and get a little water from the hose. Good thing.

Exactly. I got to shoot a little down and I'm like, that's good. We have been improving the service. I mean, we started doing just a pressure washer. We used a plate, circle plate. Yeah. And cleaning. And it was good.

But then we learned that buffer floor is more safe for the walls. Sure, sure. The water that you use is less. And then the pad and the product make the concrete looks really good. It's like a poolish, I mean. Yeah. So we learned that in the way, I mean. So is that a big machine?

Is there like a big machine? It's something really, well, it's not that bigger, but it's not that small. Yeah, yeah. And so it goes around and around or something? Yes. It spins? It spins, yes. And then you're around and around or something? Yes, it spins. It spins, yes. And then you're just moving like this. Moving back and forth.

Yes. And then it's taking all the mud away. Yeah. Make it look really good. And no water, no nothing? Well, we use a little bit of water and then a vacuum to pull all the water away in the same moment.

So it's driving in the same moment. So it's dry in the same moment. So it has to be wet as the pressure washer. I mean, it's dry in the same moment. It's like those rug cleaners where you've got the thing with water and it spits the water out, but when it comes like this, it sucks the water out. Yes. Okay. It's really

good, yes. And it's good for the basements, too. We do the basement. Sure. Unfinished floor basement, and we do that for the newements too. We do the basement. Sure. Unfinished floor basement. And we do that for the new houses. It's the most common. And then it looks really good. Sure. Yes.

People feel. I mean, we never have been. Complain. Complains about it. Yes. And so you have. So that's one side of the business, which is basically, you know, where there's construction going on. And so at the end, you come in and you clean part of the construction.

Do you also clean, because sometimes I know that for, you know, whether it's a new home, like if you're building your house, before you move in, they have a cleaning crew come in and clean it. Is that part of your? Yes. That's just my part. Trini data. Tr clean it. Is that part of your... This is my part. Trinidad. Trinidad part, yes. Yeah, this is my part. Okay. Yeah, when the house is done, that's rough clean and three phase to the cleaning.

Rough clean, final clean, and touch up. Okay. Yeah, and that's be... I have the crew for this part. Wow. So basically, so you come in and you do the rough and then the clean and then at the end you kind of walk around.

Yeah, because after rough clean, still work, the people, painting, and that's the, when some constructs, when it's for final clean, almost be done. And that's be, for final clean, it's almost be done, and that's be, it's maybe for in the final clean, the owner to the house is going to walk to the house, and they say, es lo que pasa entonces

naturalmente empiezan a limpiar y como siempre en la construcción al final siempre alguien tiene que pintar algo tiene que arreglar algo y hacen un poco de más de polvo

entonces ya vienen ustedes hacen la limpieza final entonces viene la persona que compra la casa y todo está bien entonces viene quizás el contractor y dice mira ahí el espejo tiene una cosita ahí y ahí tiene que venir el sitio de construcción

cuando es la limpieza es cuando quieren empezar a estar listos para que el cliente venga Sí, sí, sí. They got to do a touch-up, like they finish, maybe it's not looking good, or paint or something. They do some extra work, and then we come back to do a touch-up. Okay. Yeah, so it's more like in that side of the contractor who's doing the house. And then we got to do just the final, final, final cleaning. This is the job. And it's like in one month, I think, after the rough cleaning is the time. Oh, really?

Okay. Yes. And that's turning it apart. She's checking all the details. And then we have the customer who's living in the house already. Yeah. We come and do, we call it, in this side, we call that deep cleaning. So it includes the deep cleaning is the windows, the pressure washer, the entire house.

Some companies, well, I will say some because I don't know which ones, but some companies, they have like a list. They have different prices for kitchen, for bathrooms, for, but in the case, our prices are going for all the surface. I mean, we don't have splits. This is the price that we have, and it's going to take care of all the surface. Of everything. We don't have.

For example, if a customer says, I would like the house, but I don't touch the kitchen. Okay, it's good. I mean, let's work. But because people sometimes think that kitchen is going to be more expensive. Or they are trying to save some money, but in this case, we're coming straight to our house. And then her side is that interior cleaning. My side, I will do the estimate for the windows, pressure washer, or something else that they need. And because we do construction site, like

the new houses, we are digging trench or cleaning all around. So it's the same thing on the private houses. We can come and provide the gutters or mulching or fixing a pipe. I mean, the

gutter pipe that goes under, maybe it's a leak or something they want to replace. o molchando o arreglando una pipa la pipa que se despega tal vez es una llave o algo que quieren reemplazar, nos vamos a la tienda y reemplazamos la pipa ¿Tú también lo haces? Sí, porque lo estamos haciendo en el lado de la construcción con el desarrollo antes de iniciar con el negocio

él trabajaba en la construcción y yo siempre trabajé en limpieza por mi cuenta, yo sola entonces pues empezamos a a querer, o sea, a trabajar juntos y dijimos bueno, ¿por qué no? o sea

nos fusionamos entonces fue, nació la idea de la limpieza al principio, entonces bueno, de hecho iniciamos él y yo limpiando casas. Entonces, éramos partners. We have been partners for a while. Entonces, él me iba a ayudar, nos íbamos a trabajar

y los dos sacábamos el trabajo de limpieza interior. Sí. Entonces, porque esa era mi área. Entonces, cuando él ander en la naturaleza. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer.

Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer.

Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso fue lo que nos llevó a crecer. Y eso the big challenge that we have is to believe. Believe in yourself. Yes. That's the big wall in the way, I mean the big challenge, to believe that you could do it.

If you are dreaming and don't take action, so you will be dreaming forever. Because if you don't risk, you will know if you really are winning or losing. And that's why we decided. It takes 10 years. I mean, that idea was here in my mind. 10 years to lose the fear. The fear of starting yourself. Y esa idea estaba aquí en el mar. 10 años para perder la... La miedo.

La miedo. Sí, la miedo de empezar a mí mismo. ¿Y sabes a Facundo Cabral? ¿Sabes? El cantante argentino, Facundo Cabral. No, no. Él tiene una canción que a mí me gusta mucho. Sí.

Y él dice, en una de las partes dice, para vencer el miedo que nos empobreció entonces esa es la realidad vencer el miedo para que no vivas en pobreza mental y material

ese es el gran desafío creer en ti mismo y siempre invito a todos si sientes que eres bueno en las cosas que haces puedes empezar ahora no tienes que esperar más puedes empezar ahora And I always invite everybody, if you feel like you are good in the things that you do, you can start now. I mean, you don't have to wait more. You can start now. Many people start to live the dream.

I mean, it's hard. Sure. It's not easy. It's a lot of stress and many things you've got to manage. But, I mean, if you love what you do, it's going to be a big challenge. But at the end, it's something that you're going to still do because you love it. Exactly. And she loves what she do. I love her.

And we are together in this adventure. That's very well put because, you know, one of the questions we always have is, you know, what does it feel to be like an entrepreneur? And you said it perfectly there because when you start a business, I mean, like you said, I think most people have, like, dreams. Like, this is what I like to do. I would love to be able to do this sometime. But they sit back and say, I don't think I could do it. But like you said, first you have to believe in yourself, and then you have to take the step of literally doing it. And then they're stepping out and saying, I may

fail, I may not be able to do it, maybe even like the first time or the second time, maybe sometimes it takes more than once, but to be able to just step up and say, okay, I'm going to start doing it takes more than once, but to be able to just step up and say, okay, I'm going to start doing it. But Cesar, as you said, if you like what you do, and as you mentioned, it's a lot of work. I mean, I've had our business for a long time, and when something breaks or something goes wrong, you can't call somebody and say, you can't call the boss and say, fix it. You only got to fix it, right? So that's what it is. But it's a lot of work, and the hours sometimes are very long.

But because you like what you do and it's your dream, you do it. And when you finish that job or whatever you're doing, you feel good. You say, you know, I feel good. And then you start the next day. Ready for the next, yes. Yes say you know I feel good and then you start the next day ready for the next day right yes you know

so congratulations because I mean that's you know that's not easy at the beginning you say you don't know

when the day starts and then you're really late and you I mean there's no time to start no time to finish I mean

and during the day right so but there is something that there is always something or somebody who reminds you that it's time to come back. Your kids.

Gotcha. It's time to pick up them from the school and then you see the time and say it's time to dedicate the time to my family. It's hard. It's not easy. I mean, when you are with that

objective in your mind, everything is possible. We know a sister from Crocette, it's the monastery. Oh. Or Nuestro Lema, I don't know how to say that. Oh. Or nuestro lema. I don't know how to say that. Nuestro lema ha sido tú y yo juntos somos invencibles. So the theme is them two together are invincible, right? When they're together.

But the sister, we met the sister. She changed her life a lot. And one day she say, we told her about this. And she say, I like it. this and say i like it but i just gotta add something else jesus you and i together we're invincible that's that's very that's true that changed yes and i mean so so good that now. That's beautiful. That's so true. You guys have been, I mean, it's really, it's wonderful.

We do this, we like to invite people that have their own businesses or just started their businesses. And I'm always impressed and I always feel wonderful at the end of a show because I meet people like yourselves who, especially in your case, you came from El Salvador, right? Yes. And you came here and you had to learn a new language, a new culture, right? In the sense of, I mean, you bring your culture with you and you always keep that with you because, you know, like my wife's Sicilian, so

Sicilian feast we Sicilian feast, we celebrate. Cuban feast, we celebrate. Spanish feast, we actually try to celebrate all the feasts because we enjoy eating. But, you know, to come to a different country where you now have those challenges of the language, the culture, and trying to penetrate a business is not easy. It's not easy at all. So, you know, I take my hat off to folks like yourselves. That's a tremendous accomplishment. And that is something that motivates.

Because when you see 17 years back in the time, I mean, we was zero English. Yeah. We was just hi, yes, and then you say yes when you don't have to say yes. And goodbye. And you had to learn, you had to practice. Yeah, so I mean, in 17 years, everything changed. Yes.

And then you get more experience on the way. And now it's more easy to do some things, not all of it, I mean, because you're still learning. It's a journey of learning every day. All life. For entire life. Yes. No, that's true.

And we are so grateful, as the word, with the people who believe in our project. I mean,

we are trying to do the best for the customers. We try to go

beyond their expectations. And so it's really good when they write and they

send a message, because she received the message. She said, oh, my God, my house is totally different. It's a new house. Thank you so much for all your work. And the other part is make you to go sleep in peace. Tomorrow we're going to fight against taxes again.

So, yeah, the customer customer when they give us a good comment that makes you feel like you're in the right way exactly and are you on Facebook and all that stuff too yes we have the website Facebook and that's the most

common what would be the website what's kind of like the handle this way for people or viewers watching? They can look you guys up. The website is frevasllc.com. frevasllc.com. Is it the same on Facebook? Facebook is like F-Rivas Contractor and Cleaner. The website is a little bit shorter.

What's the best way for people to reach you? Is it by phone or by email? Which would you prefer? By phone. The email works too, yes. I prefer the text message. Text message. It's more easy.

More quickly for me. Text message is really easy. And you know, you learn a lot in that way. Text messages is really easy. And you know, you learn a lot in that way. A lot of text. And you don't know the people sometimes. They just text you. I need your

help. Yes, sure. And then, it's incredible. You don't know the people, but everything is working. Well, that's what we work in these days. That's why I said this. Social media and text, it's just incredible sometimes. Yes, social media is incredible. Reach the people, and the people can find everything there.

It's really easy, yes. So, yeah, they can take a look on the website and then message. Well, the phone number is on the website, but our cell phones are not there. Yeah, but I mean, I think on the Facebook, I think the cell phones are there. Okay, so if they want to reach you, they can go to the Facebook or the website and get the phone number and text you. Yes, or messages. We also receive messages on the Google profile. Okay.

They write in something there, we're able to see it, and then we can give an answer. That's wonderful. Now, do you work with any, like, contractors here that build new homes or anything like that? Do you work with some of them or are you trying to? No, we work for Evergreen. It's a custom house. We work for C billy builders, Acadia, Peterson and Johnson, Vermont. We have several customers who build houses.

You two must be very busy, they're constructing everywhere. Yes, I mean sometimes there's a lot of work, sometimes it's a little bit slow. Sometimes it's a lot of work to do, yes. But for some of them, we provide the cycling app. They had the cleaning company, so we're taking care of the houses. But we do the cycling app and the pressure washer for them, yeah. But, yes, it's a lot of work. It's a lot of work. Well, that's wonderful.

That's wonderful. Cesar, Trinidad, thank you both so much for coming on. Muchas gracias ha sido un gran placer conocerlos ustedes dos y felicidades con sus negocios y estar juntos, trabajando juntos que es lo que ustedes naturalmente querían hacer

realmente ese es el emprendimiento más grande, que estemos los dos juntos y pues entendernos porque no es fácil, o sea, él tiene sus puntos de juntos y pues entendernos, porque no es fácil o sea, él tiene sus puntos de vista yo los míos, entonces juntar esos dos a veces se complica pero hasta

bueno, hasta hoy creo que hemos trabajado hemos trabajado muy bien muchas gracias por la invitación nos hemos sentido muy a gusto con la entrevista sí sí Nos hemos sentido muy a gusto con la entrevista. I was nervous, but I'm not afraid. Sí. El que estaba más nervioso, el que ha hablado más.

Es lo que pasa a veces. Están nerviosos y empiezan a hablar y se olvidan que están nerviosos. You were both wonderful, don't worry about it. Thank you. Thank you very much. This that you are doing is really good. Thank you for much. Thank you very much. And you have a really, I mean, this that you're doing is really good. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Thank you for all this. Thank you. For the invitation. It's a pleasure. All right. Well, have a wonderful day. Thank you.

Thank you. Muchas gracias. De nada, de nada. Thank you so much. You're welcome. Wow, that was a great interview to hear this story. Yeah, you know, like I said, it's wonderful to meet new people and their businesses and just learn their story, what they do, how they do it.

And, again, the struggles, the challenges that they had in getting to where they were going, it's nice to hear that. Well, especially what Cesar was talking about, kind of like that jump. It's a lot of fear maybe a bad analogy but when you're on a diving board and you've got to jump into the pool it's kind of like

I'm worried about taking this plunge I don't know what's going to happen and there's a lot of stress that comes with those decisions they persevered and it's amazing to see what how they're doing you know 17 years how many how many of those have we seen through our lives and uh even in this show of people have come from different countries and came here and yeah and

decided you know sometimes they work for a while and they say wait a minute i can do this on my own right and then they they go ahead and they start and they follow through and they work hard and they make a nice business out of it. Yeah, and they must do a really good job because I remember going to the website. There was like tens of 20 recommendations, like the Google reviews. You go put Google reviews, it's all over the place.

So it's great to see that they're doing so much wonderful work. And it was nice to hear them talk about how they love working together. They like working together, yeah. That, you know, it's great to see that they're doing such wonderful work. You know, and it was nice to hear them talk about how they love working together. Yeah, that's pretty amazing. I know. It's like, you know, we want to work, but we want to work together. Mama Erpie's looking up saying,

and Pops is like, ooh. It's different working finance. She's got to bring something to the table. You know, maybe then she'll want to start like a gardening business. I don't think so. The problem is, sometimes your interests are different. What she loves to do and what I love to do are somewhat different, but that doesn't mean that.

Mama likes to buy antiques. She could be an antique dealer. Anyway, I know before we end the show, I know you wanted to talk a little finance. We had some topics to talk about, especially regarding the Fed. Well, they announced yesterday, I think it's right here, that they will not raise interest rates again. Good news, the right move. So I think, yes.

I mean, that's the kind of power insinuated. As of right now, they're not looking to raise interest rates again. They feel like they have inflation under control. I know Alex and I talked about last week, the number wasn't really a great number. It was a little higher than expectations. So I was curious. As we know, their target is 2%. So the PCE came in at 3.7%. So obviously that's not anywhere close to 2% at this point. However, the issue with raising rates

is not just is this what we need to fight inflation. The issue of raising rates is really to hopefully begin to slow down the economy so there isn't as much demand. But I think the challenges with inflation have been somewhat

different than really economic. And so I think the Fed's inflation have been somewhat different than really economic. And so I think the Fed's sitting there saying, all right, first of all, our GDP was 1.6%, which is not a good number, right? And interest rates are relatively high versus what they've been over the last seven, eight years. So the question is, how much damage are higher interest rates, you know, would create on the economy? And so I think the Fed is sitting there saying, there's just no way we can raise rates because of where we are right now. With an economy that appears to be slowing down, the consumer appears to be slowing down. That GDP number was mostly government spending. That's not good news, right?

So when you look at things like that, when you sit there and go, there's just no reason whatsoever right now for the Fed to continue to raise rates, right? The real question is, you know, are they going to lower rates or what else are they going to do, right? And I think probably the biggest news

that came out yesterday, I think, was the Fed balance sheet. So, so far, for the last, like, 18 months or more, and I don't want exactly the number of months, but they've been reducing their Fed balance sheet. Remember, the balance sheet is what they've been, where the Fed has essentially bought treasuries, mortgages, even short-term corporate bonds during the pandemic, right? They were just buying everything, right? And so their balance sheet became enormous. It reached like $9 billion.

And so now it's down to about $7.4 trillion, which is still huge, right? So they're reducing that balance sheet by about $95 billion a month. And the way they do that is anytime there's a security that matures, right? So they're buying bonds, right? So as soon as the security matures, interest payments come in or whatever, they no longer reinvest, right? They let that go through. So they're reducing the balance sheet. What they said yesterday was that they're going to reduce that. So instead of 95 billion, they were reducing treasuries by about 65 billion. They're going to cut it down to 25 billion, right? What I thought was really interesting in this whole

thing was that they are reducing the mortgage part by about 35 billion. they're going to leave that alone. So I take a step back and I say, the area where the largest challenges have come about is the mortgage interest rates, which are north of 7% again. And so I sit there and say, are they trying to slow down the housing kind of boom that we've had in the sense that, you know, I mean, there's a housing shortage. It's obvious across the country, in particular in certain areas. I mean, the housing crises that occur are not national. They're really locally, right? And so some areas are just continue to boom. And so is the Fed saying we need to slow that down a little bit more? Because otherwise, why not reduce that $35 billion to maybe $20 billion, right? In order to allow them to buy

some mortgages and let that mortgage rate come down a little bit. So they didn't do that. So I think out of everything that happened, for me, looking at what transpired, that was the biggest thing is like, okay, you're reducing treasuries by $40 billion, right? $25, $60, $35 billion. But on the mortgage side, you didn't do anything, right? So why is that? Why are you not focusing also on that sector of the market that really could use the help, which is mortgage rates? So I think they're, again, they're trying to find ways where they can reduce maybe inflationary pressures through an area that continues to be strong,

which is the housing market. That's what, you know, that's what I got from that yesterday, you know. So, I mean, it's, again, it's, I think we'll learn a little bit more. So, you know, Powell just comes out and says things. I think we'll learn a little bit more once we see what the minutes, what he actually said amongst the group there, the rest of the Federal Reserve, and see what he said in those minutes

and see whether that kind of jives with what he said yesterday. Because I think once in a while, the chairman will come out and say things which aren't necessarily 100% what they're thinking, but they don't want to spook the markets. And just by him saying, think about it, just by him saying we're not going to raise rates, the market took off.

It's like, okay, this is great, right? But at the same time, you sit there and you go, well, who in heaven's sakes really thought they were going to raise rates in the first place? I mean, yeah, the economic numbers have appeared to have been better previous to this one. Inflation, everybody was saying, is now under control. Well, all of a sudden, it's not under control.

And I don't think we're going back to 2% inflation anytime soon. I really don't. So the idea that that can happen, I don't think it's in the books. So I'm not sure how they're looking at that, whether they're thinking it's not going to be 2%, maybe 2.5%, 3% going forward, what we're going to see, which is a higher number. It's not a great number. But I think overall, and I always tell clients, you've got to separate what happens with the economy, what is happening with the Fed, versus what happens with the markets. Because the markets have a different – The markets don't necessarily reflect what's happening in the economy.

No. I mean, let's be honest. I mean, the S&P has got to be up maybe around 10% this year. I mean, it dropped in April. Yeah, it dropped. So maybe around maybe 7%, 8%. But, I mean, like you said, the GDP number came out, was it 1.6%? Yeah.

You said that wasn't really the number they were looking for. And obviously, we're going to see come next quarter in a few months kind of what that GDP number is. But yeah, you're right. Things don't necessarily always like, well, the economy is doing great or the stock market is doing great, so the economy must be doing great. It doesn't always work like that. No, it doesn't.

It's not a one-for-one relationship. Exactly. Exactly. Because, I mean, you take a step back and you look at the amount of debt that we've created over the last 10 years. It's just unbelievable. I mean, it kind of, I think, and I don't remember the exact number, but it really blows your mind how much debt we've created to the point where the debt outstanding of the U.S., which is probably, barring about almost by the end of this year, close to $30 trillion, and our GDP is about $26 trillion. So your GDP now is smaller than your debt burden, right? And you sit there and you go, that can't last forever, right?

And it's been growing, it's been happening. And under that scenario, you say, well, you know, how is it possible that the stock market should do or what's going on with different companies is different than what's actually happening within your economic situation in your country. And that is troublesome for this country, but that doesn't necessarily translate to meaning that the markets are going to drop precipitously anytime soon, right?

But it's something that I think whether it be, you know, the Fed, whether it be, you know, the administrations, somebody eventually has to look at that and say, we can no longer continue to borrow as much as we borrow, right? And because sooner or later, there may be countries that say, I no longer want to deal in dollars, right, and that will be then catastrophic. Can I ask you a question? At what point could you foresee them actually lowering interest rates?

Because obviously you say that it's like, you know, the GDP is not a great number, so it's not like the economy is kind of booming and inflation is still pretty high. Do you foresee them actually lowering interest rates? So I'm going to go out on a limb and say that yes, I think they're going to lower rates once in the second half of this year. Regardless of whatever GDP

or inflation is? I mean, obviously, bearing a negative GDP number or something like that. No, I mean, if there's a negative GDP, they're going to lower it easily, right? Because that means they want the economy to come back up. I think, so my feeling is their biggest concern

will probably be how the economy is doing, right? And whether we like it or not, I always say the Fed is a political animal. It shouldn't be, but it is. You know, that's just the way it is. So I think they're going to be looking at the economy, and I think they're going to take a look at the economy and say,

do we want this economy not to really fail over the next six months? So I think they will cut rates in order to improve those numbers, right? From an inflationary point of view, should they lower rates? Probably not. I think everybody's lived to learn now with this type of interest rate environment. I don't think anybody would like to see interest rates go up. I know that Jamie Dimon obviously has said that he thinks long-term rates are going to 8%. I honestly don't see that.

He may be right, but I don't see that at this point in time. But I do see that the Fed most likely would like to lower rates a little bit on the shorter end. They'd like to normalize the yield curve because I think it's better for everybody, including banks. So I think it's going to happen. And again, if inflation stays at 3.5% more or less, they'll do it. If it jumps a lot, they might consider it. But if it jumps with a slowing economy, I think they're going to lower it anyway because I think they have no choice. Well, you have no choice, yeah. You'd get into what Alex's favorite category, stagflation.

That's sort of like that scary word. Yeah, yeah. And that's problematic. That's the last place you want to be. It's a situation where prices continue to rise, but the economy begins to slow down. I mean, it has felt that way

when it comes to prices. You do grocery shopping, it does feel like things are still going up, and you're're kind of like not exactly sure why that is. Yeah. And, you know, sometimes I wonder whether, you know, I think companies, you know, let's face it, companies are there to make money, right? And so I think companies continue to push the envelope up onto the point where they realize that demand drops. So as long as the demand is there, they'll continue to push. The thing I worry about when it comes to demand is that people – it's not like people are spending less.

They continue to spend the same amount. They're just borrowing more. And what you begin to worry is like, well, at some point you have to pay that money back. What happens to that moment where people just keep borrowing and borrowing, living on debt, and then eventually you've got to pay that debt? I mean, at some point, there's going to have to be. So that's, I mean, that's where, I mean, again, that's a supply and demand situation, right? In other words, eventually people say, I can no longer borrow,

so I can no longer buy some things. Now, when we talk about food, right, so food prices may continue to go up a little bit, and other services and other things continue to grow up. It's that other part, you know, whether it be, you know, buying furniture with these services where if the demand drops there, those prices will come down, right? And the food is a little different, right, because it's hard to see food comes net come down um but obviously it would stop it from going up that's the important thing right um food is a whole different area of the market necessity so it's harder for that to go down versus you know entertainment or traveling where people easily cut that out of their budget if they need to

yeah because that's i because that's the area. In other words, you won't go to the movies. You'll stop going out to dinner. You'll stop a lot of things that are maybe more discretionary and go back to saying, I need to buy eggs, I need to buy milk, I need to buy produce, whatever I need to survive on a daily basis. So there I'm willing to pay whatever I have to buy milk. I need to buy produce, whatever I need to survive on a daily basis. So there I'm willing to pay whatever I have to pay because basically I need to survive, right? But, yeah, I mean, it's, you know, I always say even though, you know, things repeat themselves to a certain respect, they're always different.

It's like we always look for, oh, gee, we're going to have another housing crisis, so therefore it's going to be another 2008. Well, that's not true. It's not going to be another 2008. It's going to be something different. What gets us there may be somewhat similar, but it's never the same thing, right? I mean, back in, what was it, 1994, we had a mortgage crisis also. So we had a different type of crisis there.

2008, we have actually a real estate crisis. So something happens. You know, the black swan events is not something that we know. It's just something we don't know. Yeah, it's called the black Swan because we don't really know. And it's hard to say that it's going to be for the same reason. It's always something different, right? But I think from a perspective of, and I've always said that, if the U.S. wants to become more self-sufficient,

it's going to have to pay higher prices, right? Because our labor is a lot more expensive than the labor around the world, right? The only thing that we can say is that because of robotics, there's a lot of, you know, manufacturing that's going on that can now use robots. It's an immediate expense, right? The expense is higher first, but then after that, you know, the robots keep doing what people did, right? But if we're saying we're not going to import as much from China, we're going to import as much from India, anywhere else where the labor is cheaper and we're going to produce it here,

the prices have to go up because if China, they get paid $0.10 an hour and we're paying $15, $16 an hour, that's a huge differential, right? So that's just going to happen. So if that's the goal is to bring manufacturing back here and some services back here that are important to this country, then the inflationary pressures are going to be high for a while, and then they should – I want you also, if that were the case,

so if you were bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., wouldn't that also be increasing your GDP? Yeah, it'll be – yeah, no. Because at that point, you'd have the same relationship. Yes, inflation should be going higher, but so would GDP. Right now, we're kind of worried because what we saw was inflation still going up, but GDP kind of leveled out. Remember, there's a lag effect, right?

To bring manufacturing back to this country, it just doesn't happen boom immediately. That's true. Right? And so that's – you know, There's a lag there. Again, there's a lot of challenges going on with the whole global trade right now. I think the U.S.

is going to be challenged with the inflationary numbers for a longer period of time than I think we were used to. I think that's why I say raising rates is not going to solve the inflation problem. It really isn't. So we'll see what happens.

And we'll see what happens. Thanks for cheering up our day. Wow. No, no. No, no. It wasn't negative. As you know, I'm a positive guy. I mean, listen, like I said,

there's a difference between seeing what's going on versus, you know, what I do for my investments. And I've always been a true believer that, you know, from a perspective of investing, it's not just, you know, do I buy today, buy tomorrow? Do I come in and out? That's not, to me, that's not investing for the long term. Investing for the long term is trying to figure out what are your goals, what are your needs, what's your expectations, and then you just create a portfolio

that meets those particular needs of yours, right? And then just, you create them, and you just make sure you keep an eye on them. You know, there's always, and this is why I always tell clients, there's a foundation for investments, so you create a foundation, say, there's a foundation for investments. So you create a foundation. Say, here's a foundation, of course. You know, there's the S&P 500.

There's the Russell Broad. There's the Russell Small Cap. There's areas, you know, there's certain sectors in the bond market that are important to be in, right? But then above that, there's always opportunities. And that's where you want to keep an eye on and say, all right, this particular sector of the market or this area of the bond market has been weakened, all right? Or, you know, the yield curve being inverted, right? If the yield curve eventually becomes normal, there's a strategy you can put in play to take advantage of that, right? So that's what's important. What we do is then say, on the

cusp of your portfolio, on certain portions of your portfolio, is there a way to then strategically change it in order to take advantage of those opportunities, right? But the foundation has to be there so that, you know, whether you're investing over a 20-year period, 10-year period, five-year period, whatever that period is, you have to build that foundation. And then, you know, then on the cusp, say, is there anything there that I can do to improve the returns of the portfolio? And that's really

what I tell people. That's really our job. That's what we do for a living, in a sense. Figure that one out. That's the easy part. Trying to guess what's going to happen next, that's the tough part. Exactly. When you see, again, it's seeing opportunities and saying that's an opportunity. Let's take advantage of it, you know.

You know, it's like, listen, it's like gardeners. They go out there and they look at their land and say, hey, over there I can do vineyards. Over there I can do orchards and, you know, whatever it is. They see it, right? I mean, I go to a piece of land and I see trees. I have no vision for that. But there are people that are very good at it and say, that hill, you can put vineyards there because this is what would happen, et cetera, et cetera. Our job is to figure out where the opportunity is in the markets and

in a way, it's what we're good at. See? It's a happy thought. No, no, it is a happy thought. It feels like there's always so much uncertainty that you kind of never exactly know which way things are going to turn. But I guess that's part of life, I guess. Well, you know, I always remember one of my old mentors used to say, chaos creates opportunities, right?

So the more challenges that you see out there, that means there's more opportunities, right? So you just have to say, where are they? And how can I take advantage of them? If everything was so easy and smooth, then everybody would see the same thing and say, okay, here's where I'm at. And since the pandemic, nothing's been easy and smooth.

No, it isn't. It's chaos. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah,'s where I'm best. Since the pandemic, nothing's been easy and smooth. No, it isn't. It is. Absolutely. The markets have been all over the place. All over the place. I was talking to a gentleman yesterday and he said he had come into real estate in 2019. People often ask about the housing market.

When are things going to be back to normal? He's like, I don't even know what normal is. When I came in, it's like since 2020 everything, you're not even sure whether things can actually get back to normal he's like i don't even know what normal is yeah i mean when i came in it's like since 2020 everything you're not even sure whether things can actually get back to normal what is normal how we how we used to perceive it might not be the reality of what normal is today so you have to kind of adjust your expectations adjust your kind of reality of what to expect because now things just feel like they've shifted and And will they shift back to the way they were? Is where they shifted on now, is this the new normal? You know, you really don't know.

So it's kind of like a weird time. You're not exactly sure what to expect. Yeah. It's funny because I remember when that phrase was coined. And I don't know if it was back in the 90s. The new normal. Yeah. And I said to myself, that new normal has changed so much.

Yes. There's no such thing as a new normal. Yeah. Well, you have to be careful what's a new normal in a literal sense, in a new normal where there's a pressure sense. Like, no, this is the new normal. Like, no, I don't think I want this new normal. Thank you very much.

So you have to kind of adjust expectations. I was trying to mean it more of like, hey, this is what to expect now. Like if you got hit with an ice age and it's cold all the time, you're like, wow, this is the new normal because, you know, ice age. But in other terms, you don't want people to kind of like force you to live away. It's like, this is the new normal.

It's like, no, I don't think so. No, exactly. Thank you. I'll pass. I left the old normal. Thank you. Yeah, I mean, you know, you look at markets. Think of markets from the 70s all the way to today.

I mean, the 70s interest rates were 13%, 14%, 15%. That was normal back then. Then they came all the way down to almost zero. I mean, we were used to zero, whatever, one for so long that it's like it jumped to eight. It was so high. It's impossibly high. You were the only one who was like, man, the 70s, it was like this. I remember that time. For a lot of people born after the 80s, they probably never experienced interest ratesibly high. You were the only one who was like, man, the 70s, it was like this. I remember that time.

For a lot of people born after the 80s, they probably never experienced interest rates that high. I mean, when my parents bought their house, right, their interest rates were 6.5%, right? So that was kind of a regular rate that people were buying houses at that time period. I forget exactly when it was, but I mean, late 60s, early 70s, right? And then, of course, rates were all the way skyrocketed to 14, 15%, right? And then eventually, we got rates, some mortgage rates below 3%. People were ecstatic, great. And then, of course, they jumped to seven. It's the end of the world. Well, no, it's not the end of the world. It's where things are, right?

It's difficult only because prices have skyrocketed so much that, of course, the 7% on the prices we're paying today is an enormous amount of payments on a monthly basis. So you sit back and say, can I afford that? That's the real challenge. We haven't seen a situation where mortgage rates go up, but prices have come down. I think that was the issue because what happens is you had housing prices kind of go up during the pandemic and afterwards, and then of course mortgage

rates jumped up. But then what happens is there wasn't an inverse relationship. They both went up at the same time. So it's like, well, this is terrible. Instead of paying 2% on a house that was worth this much, $300,000, now I'm paying two percent on the house that was worth this much but three hundred thousand now i'm paying you know eight percent on the house that's worth four hundred thousand dollars it's like exactly yeah this is worse like yeah that's i mean that has certainly been the the challenge but listen i mean we were

talking to somebody uh i don't know yesterday before um and you know they're building, they're building homes, townhouses all over the place around here. Yeah, they definitely are. But they're gone. It's like the minute they build them, they're done. Well, some of them I saw them before. Yeah, and you sit there and go, wait a minute, these townhouses are $400,000, $500,000, right? Some of these homes are $800,000, single-family homes, $800,000, right? And the rates are 7% or more.

But they're going, right? So as long as that happens, you know what? Prices are going to continue to go up. At the point where it's like they build them, it's like, wait a minute. Nobody's buying them. Prices will come down. It's just the way it is. Well, it was great having you on, Pops.

Thank you. Thank you for coming on and sharing your finance wisdom. We needed it because last week it was just me and Alex, so there's only very limited. But now you get the wisdom. I mean, obviously you hear this every day from me, so you've probably seen it. Yeah, and I kind of zoned out a couple of times already.

Yeah, I was daydreaming halfway through this. I got it. I heard this yesterday, you know. But it's always, listen, for me it's fun. It's what keeps me going. I enjoy this thoroughly. Like I said, just finding a little gem once in a while. It's like, wait a minute, this is like a great investment.

It's what makes your day, right? You find it and you say, let's go ahead. I know you get really excited when you found that one little thing. You're like, guys, we've got to talk about this. Then we have to go to a little meeting place and you're like, look what I found. And then Alex will ask like 500 questions. Nick and I are more like, oh, yeah, that sounds good. Alex is like, oh, wait, so what about this, this, this, this?

Then you've got to go back and get all the numbers. Yeah, it's always fun yeah but um yeah so next week we got a good show too we're gonna have adrienne oliver from waterworks festival adrianne oliver adrienne i'm not exactly sure i pronounce it but yeah it sounds french right it does yeah from the waterworks festival from live arts downtown so live arts downtown pops you remember along Water Street? There's that metal building with Live Arts. I think that's where it is. Okay, okay. Yeah, they're having a Waterworks Festival.

Wow. Yeah, I guess... Whatever that means. I looked up yesterday. Well, that's exactly what it is. Yeah, I don't want to say what it is, because you can watch next week and find out. Let's watch next week, because I have no idea. Yes. And then we're also going to have a Triple Oaks farm coming on. So we've got a packed house next week.

I don't know whether it's going to be you, me, Alex. Yeah, I have no idea. I don't know where I am next week. We have no idea, so you guys won't have no idea. So you just have to tune in and find out. There's a high probability Alex will be here, though. Probably, yeah. He needs to get back.

Unless his allergies are horrendous. We'll see. That's why they invented Allegra Zyrtec, you know. Yeah, it just doesn't seem to work very well. We'll just double the dosage. There you are. Sleepy allergies. Exactly.

Take a Venom. I shouldn't say sleepy allergies. I'll get insulted. Anyway, as always, we love being presented by Emergent Financial Services, sponsored by Matisse Young Realty, Karate Series Insurance, and Forward Adelante. Pops, again, it was wonderful having you on. Thank you for being here. Thank you. It was fun being with you.

Thank you to everyone, all our viewers. I love Siva for having us. Judah behind the camera making us look good, like Alex likes to say. Liza, I always have to give a shout out to Liza. She's the happiest to see us. She was happy to see us today. Last time she was a little sleepy.

Yeah, but she was a little sleepy last time. I don't know why. She needed the warm weather to perk up. I think so. I think so. We all did, yeah. Exactly. Yeah, we do.

And to close out the show, as always, hasta mañana. Hasta mañana.