The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Greg Slater & Rod Phillips Joined Keith Smith & Jerry Miller On “Real Talk With Keith Smith!”

Episode Date: August 15, 2025

Greg Slater of Nest Realty & Rod Phillips of Dogwood Realty, Organizers of the 1st Annual “Opening Doors to Affordable Housing” Benefit Concert, joined Keith Smith & Jerry Miller on “Real Talk With Keith Smith” powered by YES Realty Partners and Yonna Smith! “Real Talk” airs every Friday from 10:15 am – 11 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Real Talk With Keith Smith” is presented by Charlottesville Settlement Company, LLC, El Mariachi Mexican Bar & Grill, MejiCali, Fincham & Associates, Inc., Free Enterprise Forum, Intrastate Service Co and YES Realty Partners.

Doug Woodville, yeah. I like the logo. You thank you. Fought long and hard about that. You did a good job. Yeah. Here we go. We're supposed to be quiet.

We never do it. He's talking to me. Yeah. We never do it. See, he counts us in. Good Friday morning, guys. My name is Jerry Miller, and thank you kindly for joining us on Real Talk of Keith Smith. An absolute pleasure to connect with you guys through the I Love Seville Network on a show that has agents, bankers.

Home inspectors, architects, you know, lenders, all watching the program, along with the average Joe's of the average Karens of the world. And we have a lot we want to talk about today. Not only are we going to talk about the nuances of today's real estate market, and boy, oh, boy, is it dynamic? Had a fantastic conversation over, you know, near tennis courts, Rod, with Jim McVe about this real estate market and the importance of the fall and what's coming in the fall.

We'll talk about that in a matter of moments. But we're going to first highlight an event that's cooking at Pro Renata for a fantastic cause. Those details to come. Judah, Wickehauer is behind the camera. Judah, if you can go to the studio camera and a four-shot, as I pass the baton to my good buddy, Keith Smith. What a show you have lined up today. I do. Like I said, they're rock stars.

But what we're going to do, he used to have like a whole mullet and everything. I thought Paul Stanley was coming in the door. Okay. Sorry. Can I do my intro now? Yes. Okay, got it. Thank you.

So for those of you don't know, when Greg and I, so since you pushed already, I'm going to push. Burton and Ernie. Thank you. Yeah, I know you guys well. These guys are great guys. Bert and Ernie and we'll let you view or decide who's Burton, who's Ernie. But since people, you've already kicked in, Rod, tell us a little bit about yourself, tell us about your firm, how's business doing, and then kick off what we're talking about here. and then we'll look, Greg.

Yeah, real excited. The last year and a half, about a year and a half ago, I went to more of a boutique-type setting. I was with Remax for about eight years, and it was great, and it had great partners over there, and a great relationship. Before that, it was with Keith and Michael Guthrie at Roy Wheeler. I did the Roy Wheeler thing for 10 years,

and it was amazing over there, amazing training, amazing people. But, yeah, so we're about 10 people, about five full-time people and about five part-time. We have a little settlement company in the building. I own right there in Crozé, downtown Crozay. But yeah, just went to more of the boutique type situation. I think that fits the Charlottesville area, and it's just, it's going great.

My wife, Christy, is involved. Yeah, so she does a lot of the back-of-the-house stuff. But we have a nice little firm, a nice little group. We don't really recruit heavy, but we do take on some, maybe add a person, one or two people a year, if they're the right fit. Let them know what it's called. Dogwood Realty Group. Yeah. Love the logo.

Yes, so we worked long and hard on that name, because you have to find a name that's not taken, first of all, which is not easy in the state. But we are Dogwood Realty, and I'm the big sponsor of UVA sports as well. So we're on the scoreboard for the seven home games. We're on 20 home games for baseball. So Dogwood is a big supporter of UVA sports and also Western Athletics as well. And Pro Renata. Well, we're getting to that. Pro Renata, yes, I sponsor that venue.

We have a great band tonight. Just a plug before. We have a Rush tribute band playing tonight. And then that's tonight. And then next week. Here's a test. What's the drummer's name? Neil Part.

There you go. Well done. Well done. Nicolator. Nicely done. Well done. Wow. That is good.

To tribute rush, we've never had them. I want to disclose to you. We've never had this band. I hear they're good. They're out of the Pennsylvania, so they are a touring band. So we get some touring bands that come through. How many people does that venue hold? The venue holds comfortably about 350 to 400.

Really? But they are talking about expanding pro ronata to get it to where it's going to be more six to 800. That's a really cool thing. to have a venue on that side of town. You know, I don't think we should plug that a little bit more. We don't really talk that much about it because, you know, where is the venues

that you can have these little small, intimate things? So what was the brainchild behind? Well, it's kind of the... It's called money. John Shaves and dear friend of mine. Dear friend of mine, watch the program all the time. Yeah, so John has a good vision there, and I'm here helping the music scene.

I'll introduce the bands and help recruit the bands. Brian Combs is the main social media guy there and the main guy who recruits bands, but I was the first to bring Zoso there, which was there a couple weeks. Led Zeppelin cover band. We've had them six years in a row.

Greg Slater's been there a couple times. Yeah, a true tribute to Led Zeppelin. You insinuating me? Zoso is awesome. Zoso is awesome. It's one of our biggest shows, so we're really excited. But we're not just known as a tribute band place, even though people love the tribute bands.

They do love it, but we do have a lot of singer songs. writers, local people like Camille and Whiskey, Coda Marie there, and disco risque, the Barrens. So we do get a lot of. You had me until that disco thing, so we're moving over there. Disco Ruske is a great band. It's a great local band. It's not 70s disco music, but anyway, just to name some of the local museum we had to, we're not all about tributes, but

I literally grew up in the neighborhood that Saturday Night Fever was shot. Literally when I was going, they actually grew up in that neighborhood, so. So one more plug for next week on the 22nd, a week from tonight, we have a Pearl Jam tribute. We've never had them either. They're called Jeremy's 10. I've got a big group coming in.

My brother-in-law, my wife's brother, is a huge Pearl Jam guy. He's seen him 40 times all over the world, the Pearl Jam. So I've never had Jeremy's spoken. Jeremy's probably, yeah. So you're a concert promoter, huh? I am a concert. Don Carsoner. So that's one of my passions.

I mean, I love a little bit of golf and tennis. 10's the name of the album. And that's right. Yeah. Yes. So anyway, next Friday, a Pearl Jam tribute as well. But getting to our event at Affordable Housing, which is September 4th in Croese at P.R.N. Doors open at 5 o'clock for kind of a happy hour. The music will come on at 6. And this is another local band out of Richmond. We get a lot of really great bands to come to P.R.N. out of Richmond. They're called Gone Country. And they do a lot of fun covers. And also, he's a singer-songwriter, the lead singer's name as Trace, so he may do a couple of originals, but people love just the country classics, and he's Alan Jackson, Toby Keith, Garth Brooks, from the 90s, and he rolls into the Morgan Wallens and the Chris Stapleton's and the Tyler Childers music as well.

So he kind of plays that whole new and old country crossover as well, so a really fun band, very talented, so we're glad to have him there. And this event, it's not just your fundraiser where you have a silent auction and there's all these breaks and it's kind of stale and boring. This is going to be a concert. This is going to be a lot of fun. It's been great to kind of co-chair the concert committee with Greg Slater. Keeping up with Greg, as you guys know his energy.

We talk daily. Speaking of energy, what about Rod Phyllis has some energy? Let's get the coach here. Rod, we're done. Anyway, my daughter's asked me, he's Greg Slater, your new bestie. I said, wow. I forgot you like to talk. Rod, I literally forgot you like to talk.

You're done. Greg. Oh, come on. We want to get Greg Slater in, though. Well, I'd like to take a step back, though, and tell us how we got here and why we're doing it. And that's because, you know, the association of our show. Right, nice job, buddy. The Association of Realtors.

He's they can breathe in out, but. Are we ready? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, the Association of Realtors has long been committed to trying to cause things to happen in the affordable. housing space, right? Before the Great Recession, we had a down payment assistance fund we created to help police officers, firefighters, nurses, and teachers. And, you know, the Great Recession changed that. Coming out of the Great Recession, as we moved through and the economy was growing again, a conversation started about having our own foundation. And Anthony McGee was the president

in a car five or six years ago who got this passed. And four years ago, I got involved. I moved over from the CLT board to the Foundation Board. Community Land Trust Board. The Community Land Trust Board. So we could help shine a light on organizations like the CLT and others in the community. Fast forward to today, you know, we spent three years building a strategic plan, hiring an executive director. We have Dave Norris, the former mayor is our executive director.

We have a strategic plan that involves causing funding, volunteer engagement. education and awareness and advocacy right we came out recently with the position on what we think about albemarle housing fund and what we thought about that we have partnered with seaville to mar there's actually if you go to seville to mar's web page there is our first comprehensive housing resource guide there and it is a year was spent compiling every bit of information that could be found online about resources for everybody who wants to be in this conversation or needs help with housing so that's all there But, you know, this year was about figuring out what we were really going to do and how we are going to raise money. And I have to say at the end of last year, before we had a plan and we started talking about fundraising,

I had a conversation with Rod and Christy Phillips in their office about what the foundation was and what we wanted to be. And they responded immediately. They are passionate about affordable housing as well. They became our first major sponsor donor, corporate sponsor. that's why they're the presenting sponsor of the concert that's coming up. They've made the largest contribution to the foundation since its inception. And, you know, talking about our friendship, we spent a lot of time talking about concerts. And if you recall, we used to throw concerts for affordable housing around here before the Great Recession of Realtors.

So the realtors have a history of doing this. And I said, Rod, you're the perfect person to help us create our first fundraiser. And that's where the idea for this was born, just in a conversation about who was playing at Pro Renata this Friday. So they are our title sponsor. Since we set this up, we've had other sponsors sign up. We've got closure title, Amy Hughes, we've got Guild Mortgage, Katie Shears, Atlantic Builders, Brian Roinstead, and Virginia Housing. Virginia Housing has been a big supporter of the Foundation since its inception as well. Yeah, they step up in a big way across the board.

You want to mention our VIPs? You can't mention Christian. Yes, so as we achieve these sponsorships that we were super proud to achieve and super thankful for, what that means is every ticket we sell 100% of the cost of that ticket goes to the bottom line for the foundation, right? Go off to the band, the cost of the included drinks and food are all paid for by the sponsors and then some. So if you buy a ticket or if you buy a ticket for your friends or clients, this is not just a realtor event. We've had some feedback that people were confused that maybe this was just for realtors. It is not.

We should point out that if you want to get tickets, the best place to go that I can tell you to go without a link or a QR code is actually CarFoundation. Orc, C-A-A-R-Foundation.org. And there's an event tab, and there's a place to get tickets right there. You can buy as many tickets as you want. You can make an additional donation. There you go. That's what we want to talk about. We've had people who want to support us who can't make it that night.

You can put in zero tickets and make. a donation at that site as well to support this event. So let's divert and Ernie this a little bit. Okay. Why is this so important, right? So just to set a frame to it, in the last 30 days in the car footprint, the median sales price, this is the full car footprint, all product types, so forth and so on, was $475,000.

That was the median sales price. So why is this so important? Well, you know, when we talk about affordable homeowner, ownership, we often put it in terms of median area income. And what we've worked with for years around here is targeting families that make 80% of the median area income or lower. That means you have to make enough, but not too much. 80% of the median area, and we used to talk about affordability in terms of what percentage of the median area price could the 80% median area home buyer buy. Well, it's not 475. And I know you've talked.

talked about it on the show. It's $2.75. It's $2.75. And one of the reasons, one of the... So that's $200,000 shortfall, just, just my Marine Corps mouth. I'm not sure a lot of people understand how expensive is to actually create affordable housing. And that's what I need you to talk about. And so my history with the CLT taught me that is one of the best models available to help us create affordable housing because what, it not just helps the first family, it helps all the family. So when we got to this permanent affordability concept. That's when things really started changing because it becomes more politically palatable and more investable to know that we're creating something that's going to help people for generations to come. And so it was also a project that we were working on together

between the foundation, the Piedmont Community Land Trust and Greenwood Homes at Victorian Heights. And we were looking at that math and talking about the fact that your organization actually pays the closing cost for these buyers. So if the median sales price is $475, 275 is what the 80% AMI can buy, that's a $200,000 shortfall, this is why this event is so important, right? Where do we come up with that money? Plus, you've got to add closing costs on top of it. So that number is 200 plus.

There's a lot of subsidy between the developer and the builder and the CLT to get the price to 275, and then there's all the other costs involved. And so it's an easy thing for us to latch on to, I think, as realtors, We intend to donate a significant portion of what we raise to the community land trust, specifically so you can pay the closing cost of the buyers at the Victorian Ice Project. And we'll talk about that a little bit more. We can talk about as much as you want right now, but that's really the impetus for all of this.

I wanted you to frame why this event is so important, right? And we'll talk real estate and crystal ball stuff later on. Funding of affordable housing is the biggest challenge, right? We have to help people understand how much it really costs to solve this problem. And we all need to, we have a saying at the foundation. We can all be a part of the affordable housing solution, and together we can do more. And that just means even a $50 ticket is helpful. And that's what it costs to go to our event on September 4th.

So the median family income, according to HUD, is 125,800. So 80% of that numbers over 100 grand. I mean, that really puts it in perspective how costly it is to live here, which I really respect the mission you guys are doing here. That's fantastic, Rob. Thank you. Chime in, Rod. Add a little bit to that. Well, no, it just, the cause that when Chrissy and I found out this was available to be part of this,

it makes sense because I try to fulfill dreams every day. We're all in different brokerage here. I've been in the real estate business, licensed in Florida, license here, and we try to provide great homes for people. And the sad thing, a lot of our first responders, police officers, firemen, can't afford to live in Charlestville. So to bring in a $400,000 townhouse for $265 to $275, I've heard that range is really amazing and it just feels so good to be part of it and to give back to the community, especially something that is in line with what I do for a living every day.

So just super excited to be involved with this and with Keith and Greg and the rest of our board. So yeah, I just please let's see. please give even if you can't make the event you know if you can donate 20 bucks a hundred bucks a thousand bucks whatever you you can do because i have reached out to a lot of people who can't make that event for you know for conflicts but they are going to donate because they just are really backing this cause so i like to point out in this situation to people that may be a little bit newer to the community land trust conversation when we raise this money and it goes to pay the closing calls for that buyer it's not just helping that buyer because that's important to

That sale of that property that otherwise would not have happened without the CLT and Greenwood and Riverbend is permanently affordable. So that contribution for helping that first buyer is actually creating a permanently affordable homes in our market. So I want to put a little context, further context, as you guys were talking, I went back and dug up some old data. 2019, the median sales price was 335. The area median income was less, right? But not that much less in 2019. So at that time, remember when we did the houses on Nassau, I believe it was 325 was the cap at that point.

So we're really, you know, the amount of money that's required to make this happen since 2019. And now obviously because the market went up is more. And that's why this event is so important to make up that delta, because otherwise we're not going to be able to do it. Yeah, so affordability is that it's worst in my career. and it continues to get worse. And what I like about the CLT model is, you like to use the comparison

for the structure of the transaction to a condo sale. But I like to think of it as an equity building bicycle and a ride chair program, right? You get the bike, you get to pedal it, and you get to build equity. And when you're done riding it, somebody else gets to ride it

and pedal it and build equity. And use the condo explanation, particularly to real estate agents Because they're not buying the land in the home. They're just buying the home. And that's at the heart of it. But the other thing it does, though, when we talk about affordability, the part we don't talk about as much is how expensive it is to rent here.

So if you're living here and you have your job and you're renting and your cash, your monthly cash flow is stretched to the point that you can't save and you can't get to the point where you have the money to move into the homeownership space, right? As we all know that the medianary income of first-time homebuyers is 38 years old now in this country, which is a shocking statistic. Oldest it's ever been. And it jumped in one year, substantial. It's a problem. So to create an opportunity where there's housing that someone can buy with very little, if nothing out of pocket, due to, you know, if you haven't explored the resources of Virginia housing,

or if you're helping someone in the affordable space that isn't a lender that understands the resources of Virginia housing, you're missing out because they have layers and layers of ways to help these people achieve homeownership. How many years you've been in the business? Twenty-nine. About 25. I've been in since 87, so it's 30-something years. 38 years. Thank you.

38 years. A lot of comments coming out. Before we do that, because I'm going to ask a question, Jerry, I always ask me, is this the worst market? Tell me about this market in the lens of almost 30 to 40 years of real estate. Well, I think that you know, we, a lot of people were spoiled after COVID and the interest rates where people were even refying at 2.75, which is insane.

And a lot of people have mortgages right now at 3%, but they can't afford to buy something else. It's not only the price, but it's that they're going to have to get a 7% mortgage or 6.5. But we did have, last week I think it was down to 6.5. It's the lowest it's been in 2025. Yeah, I believe so. So this year. So that is a sign.

Hopefully we will have a, you know, the federal will bump it down again. But, but, yeah, so I'm finding that the, it's correcting a bit, which it needed to. I'm not seeing where there's nine or ten offers on stuff. If it's something super hot downtown in Belmont or Fry Springs, there might be two or three offers. But people are not having to waive home inspections, which is insane to be a buyer's agent and you have to waive a home inspection. That's not good for anybody. It's not good for anybody. So I think there's some goodness to the correction, but the inventory is a little strange.

But the problem is some of our sellers are still stubborn, and they want those prices from COVID prices, and I'm like it's not there. So it's just, it's so there's that frustration as well where even putting in bids, the seller and the buyer are kind of butting heads and they're, and they can hold out. So the crazy thing about Charlottesville, and you correct me if I'm wrong on this, it's still 25% of the deal. or cash? It's higher than that. Is it higher? Yeah, it's about a third. It is very. Which is a little absurd. And I'm not saying it's a misleading step, but sometimes I think that people will offer cash, it's still end up getting some type of loan. Yeah. To be competitive, they're offered cash.

That's what's happened. It's a sales. It's a contract. So those numbers could be a little skewed because of that, how the contract was written. But yeah, which is pretty absurd to you. So to put a context to that, you could put a cash contract, in, the contract allows you to change it as long as you don't change the terms of the basic terms of the contract. As long as you close on time. And if you close on time and so forth and so on. It doesn't, yes.

So I am seeing a correction and just things are sitting out there a little bit longer, which is, I wouldn't call it a buyer's market, but we're some type of a, a little bit of a hybrid market. A little more balanced, yes. So I'm seeing more of a balanced market. My small firm is off to a pretty good start for 2025. I've got four or five agents that are doing fine. And I'm finding some of the newer agents that don't have a database like Greg Slater or Keith Smith are struggling a little bit. And it's hard for them to find that lead.

Comments coming in quickly. Michael Guthrie watching the program. He says it was much worse on the market compared to now in the early 80s. And he said in 1983, the interest rate around here was 18%. And Holmes taking a year to sell. He's going way back. He is going way back. Guthrie also says one of our agents has one of the properties you guys were describing with the CLT under contract.

His client would never have been able to purchase a home like this without the effort of the CLT. Brian Combs and the Pro Renata team are watching the program. They give flying chest bumps and props to Rod Phillips over here. They say Rod is the man. He's been very supportive of music at Pro Renata and Brew Pub and Music Hall since day one. We've lined up Gone Country for this event. It's going to be great night for a really, really great cause. Viewers and listeners want us to talk about the current market.

And from my count, you have agents from seven different firms watching the show right now. So did you cringe slightly with the balanced market description? You did. Okay, why? Well, I don't know that I try to put a broad descriptor on the market like that. You know, you used the word worth. And to follow up on what Michael said, the worst for me was the years we were trying to figure out how to do business with the banks when all that was breaking loose. And so those are some very, very...

We referred to that at the time of great unpleasant. I know you do, and I repeat you on that one. It was very unpleasant, and that was the worst. You know, this is the way I describe the market right now, you know, after four years of hyperappreciation, you know, 40% over four years, whatever segment of the market you're looking in, it's definitely started to slow down. But when the market first starts changing, it's very hard to measure and figure out what's going on.

And so the way I do it is, is I've been following very closely, even on a daily basis, for Albemarle County, what's happening with the pace of homes coming to the market on the resale side, how fast they're selling, and what's that doing to the inventory level? Because in the first quarter this year, we saw the inventory double over what it had been for the last couple of years. So was that number of Q1, 2025 versus Q1, 2024? The listings, basically what happened is you can go back four years. We hit a peak inventory for like a five-year period in the beginning of this year. and that was because the pace of people bringing their home to the market. I almost describe it like people really felt the end was coming, and if it was time to sell their home and get top dollar,

that was some people time the market with their housing decisions. You're starting to see in the last couple of weeks, because I tracked a seven-day cycle pretty closely. We're starting to see back to a little less homes coming on the market, a little more going and depending, which was not the case for quite a while. It is slowed to almost the same pace as last summer for the homes coming to the market. But if you look at the year to date, we've listed more homes in Albumerall County, but we've sold less homes than we did last year.

Everybody said when we have more inventory, we'll have more sales. But if you drill down on that, we've actually are slightly up on resale contracts. Well, that's a seller not in tune with market dynamics, right? Well, let me finish my thought there, and I'll get to the answer to your question. If we're listing more resales and we only increase the resale selling a little bit, Where did the rest of the contracts go? The builders are 40% behind last year's sales pace

in Alba Mall County right now. And at some point, we'll talk about what's happening in New Van, Green. They're going to Creekside in Green. They're up hundreds of the cents. I had a very interest. I meet with the presidents of certain companies out that way. It's unbelievable the tempo or pace up over there.

And what's happened is one of those two builders it's not even getting all their sales to the MLS. So we don't even know how good it is. 100%. And we had a conversation about that yesterday. So when you get back to what this market is really like, so the inventory peaked a couple of months ago and it's coming back down. It's still historically low.

So in the last 60 days, we've listed and sold about the same number of homes, but the inventory is coming down. And what's very hard to track and you can only do it on a daily basis is delistings. The pace of sellers leaving the market after, 45 to 60 days after a price reduction and not selling their home is higher than I've ever seen it. This month, it's almost one per day. This month. And why is that? It's because they had bad ex. Disillusioned sellers. That's right. They had bad expectations out of the gate. And they, when they realized they couldn't get what they were going to get, and they weren't going to get multiple

offers. Disillusion sellers. That's right. They thought it was a COVID market. If they get the COVID market. And so what it takes is a long time to figure out what's really going on is because we actually have to get the disillusioned sellers out of the market. So where is our responsibility as professionals in that conversation? Not take over price listings. You'll never convince agents not to take over price listings. But it's very difficult to actually understand. There is a lack of professionalism in our industry.

We can talk about that too. But when the market's turning, look, some of us figured out in April or May it was turning, but the advice didn't change. So if you're comping sales from this March and April, you're probably a little bit behind. I pulled two comps this morning. So what I look for in the market to figure out what is really happening to the appreciation rate is, if you can find homes that were built in the last five years that are already being resold, I found two this morning.

And both of them were in the 1 to 3% appreciation rate since 22 or 23 based on the price they just got. Wow. I have seen sales happen this year where they did not cover their cost of sale. the amount of appreciation over the time they did. And people can go back and look at my post on this. Pricing it right matters more than anything right now. And I'll let Rod chime in on that. But if you don't price your home right, you know, you're leaving money on the table.

It is. And there's a, I try to train my agents on that too. Just don't take an overpriced listing. It's not good for anybody. It's not good for the market. It's not good for the profession. And at the end, everyone's frustrated. They're pointing fingers.

Why didn't you sell it while it's overpriced? What didn't you tell me at the beginning? Well, I tried. And those who crunch data, it kind of skews that a little bit. Well, the only caveat I put to that is sometimes it's hard to know if it's overpriced. Some of these homes are priced fairly well based on recent information, and the market is changing. Well, it's much more than numbers, right? It's the features and the condition.

You have to understand demand, right? You have to understand demand for what that. And I think agents are, they get really excited about listings. You want to be that listing agent, but really you don't have the experience. to be that listing agent because you're in your first four or five years or maybe even your first two years so you need to work with more buyers i think buyers agents need to start brushing up their buyer skills because that's where i think 2026 is going but go ahead i'm sorry no it's just it's the fact that i think you're you're excited about getting a listing and you're willing to some agents

are willing to take it on it whatever price it just doesn't know well the year to date if you reduced i i looked at the data if you reduced your pricing right this is just the this year, you're going to end up selling your home somewhere around 7.5% less than what you started with. That's just what the data shows. That's not getting, and it's going to cost you roughly 40 grand on a median number. That's what the cost is by not doing this right. In my opinion, I've been saying this for a while, you know, the market is all about micro markets matter. You know, one house from across the street can be totally different. You know the market's changing when you have to start looking at different data points to figure out what's going on to your market.

And right now we're talking about the inventory and percentage that have had a price drop or two price drops. And some of these things you can't figure out with a report in the MLS. And honestly, you can't put it into AI and have you tell you. You just have to really watch the market closely and pay attention to what's going on to figure it out. Here's an interesting dynamic that I'm following closely. And this isn't about politics. But if Trump is able to pressure the Fed chair to cut rates and the expectation is we're going to have multiple rate cuts already this year, what is that going to do to the market?

If we start seeing interest rates fall a point or more, are we going to have a bonanza? Are we going to see, I'll follow it up with this. Throw it to you, Greg. Will we see the homeowners that have COVID rates of four and under tap into hundreds of thousands of equity and say, all right, I will take a five-handle or a six-handle rate because I have hundreds of thousands of dollars in the sidelines here?

anybody who makes that prediction is I wouldn't make that prediction because it's too complicated we just we had interest rates better than this during the last three or four years and what happens is even if you can sell your home and and cash out because there are more buyers out there you've got to go buy something that the price went up on as well so the calculus for and so that that's when we get back to how do you really unwind the market and it's one buyer and seller at a time because they all have their own set of circumstances motivating them It's not like hitting a budding and selling a stock. So interest rates coming down, I think most people would like to see them come down a little bit. It will help the affordability problem. But if we do something that increases the appreciation rate again, it will just create some of the problems we've already been dealing with. Curse of Rod's take on that. Gary Palmer, welcome to the broadcast.

Jump in with comments. Gary, if you have any, you've got Jackie DeShano watching the show. I'm seeing NEST, your Dogwood team, the Yes team, Real State 3, Keller Williams, Avenue, town. I'm seeing mortgage brokers all over the place here. If rates drop a pointer change and more, what happens to this market, Rod Phillips? I think getting into the fives by the end of the year will help a little bit, but I don't see it getting into the fours. I see a big change if it does get into the fours again, and people will take that money that they have on the sidelines. But, yeah, I'll see an increase.

I think a 10% increase would be a forecast for me if it gets into the low Fies by the end of the year. You're talking about the 30-year. 30-year mortgage, we're talking about. 30-year mortgage, yes, on that. So I think people are waiting out the interest rates a little bit, but we were spoiled at 3, and it's not going to get back to 3. It's not.

I don't know if it's going to get back to there ever, which could be depressing, but that's why people are holding on to the... It shouldn't go down to 3. We talked about this when that happened that this was going to be bad for our market and bad for the housing market for long term. We did a decade at four or less. And it is going to be a long-term thing. But that said, people buy and sell all the 5Ds, right?

You know, it's diamonds, diapers, divorce, downsizing, and death, right? That's what people... It's real life stuff. That's real life stuff. That's how people buy and sell. the people that maybe put a house on the market overpriced really aren't within any of those five things and they test the market and see what happens and then they pull you know living at uh over 10 percent appreciation for three or four years like we did in some cases more that's the second thing that was

in good for the and and that was driven by low interest rates and lack of uh demand to sell or lack of inventory so i think about it you know we had a lot of conversation around the overall economy for years after the pandemic and if we are going to have a soft landing or not so right now what we're seeing is the appreciation rate has slowed, and it's hard to do that math in the absence of enough comps to make it clear to everybody. But it's slowed to something that is historically normal. That's right. But it's slowed and still appreciating, based on a compound environment over the last

four years, a 40% appreciation. So any appreciation is still costly. So I always go back and look what I'm looking at now versus 19. 19 was like the real, in my opinion, normal real estate year as far as appreciating. He's going to finish a thought. Sorry, Greg. Yeah. Well, slowing happens.

You say it's slow. It's slowing. We don't know how far down it's going to go. And when we cross the line to depreciating home values, how do you even measure that? You can only measure it against year over year. So a lot of people have so much appreciation. It's not going to feel like that to them. I mean, the Great Recession was the example.

We ripped the Band-Aid off and lost 20% of the value of our housing inventory. I don't think that's going to happen. So back on this 30-year interest rate, you just said appreciation. People will just take a $50,000 haircut, right? But they're still making a half a million bucks. So now it's down to that tolerance for what equity you think you earned and how much of it you're willing to give back. And that's why sellers are leaving the market without selling. And the flip side is, is what am I buying? And where am I going? So it's going to there is no, I've never thought of interest rates lowering being as the magic bullet that's going

to solve all our problems because it's not. It is, it's going to be a journey from here. And I think just to add to the appreciation that the appreciation was so great for a while that it had to correct. It had to stop. You can't just keep going up and up and up. And I'm licensed also in Florida, and this happened in Sarasota, CST Key, where it just was nuts. One condo in 2012 was, you know, 5.50. And six months later, that same condo was 630. And it just kept going.

It's like, when's it going to stop? It has to correct. So, and that's what's going along right now, a correction. So it's important to call it a correction, not a time of great unpleasantness. And I just say, people say, is it still great to invest in Charleston, Crozet? Yes, we're still steady. We're just not going like this anymore. Well, especially with Walden Cooper saying the population is going to increase from $117,000 to $150,000 by 2050.

That's an insane stat right there. Well, that's only going to make this event more important, right? Because that delta between the AMI and what people are doing for. Well, hopefully the Carr Foundation will play a role in advocacy at some point. You know, if we can get the voice of all the realtors together and the right people listening to it with everybody else, we have to figure out how to build more houses. And so let's talk because you know how you're really going to figure out what's happening first? It's always the leading indicator.

The businessmen make decisions when they have to, I always tell my clients, you have one home to sell. You're competing with someone that has 10 to sell this month. They are going to lead the market, right? and they start with incentives and then they get the price reductions and then they stop building specs when things get really bad so we're on the builders are getting more negotiable they are including more and more incentives but what's really happens on the wear great because i can i can tell you some of the green county and flavan are in these two projects out there i'll give you the stats on that if you want to hear them they're shocking i'm sure you do um but what what they're doing is they're throttling like their sales because they're they don't want to unsell, oversell their inventory. And that's a thing. Well, in Albemarle County, I told you new construction sales are off 40% this year. You know, right now.

It's like nothing to build. Right. Well, there's, I would think it's an affordability issue. When you look at the prices at North Point and Old Trail and some of these newer companies, they're up against a cap on inventory, on lot inventory. I want to hear this. Greg Slater says volume with new construction year over year is down 40%. In Albumer County. And Almaral County.

Right now, halfway into August, zero sales for the builders, reported to the MLS. There's been two. One of them was Victorian Heights, CLT sale. And the other was, shouldn't be in the MLS. It was someone hired a custom builder to build on their private land and the realtor put in it in. So talk about where they're going. They're going to Green County, and they're going to Fluvanna County. Mostly Green County right now.

So what you've got there is, where is my stat there? The percentage of sales in Greene County, new construction over overall sales is almost up to 50 percent, right? 50 percent of the sales in Green County. And what's happening is those sales are actually lowering the median area income, the median price points that are being achieved. Because they're all earning at the sweet spot. Stanley Martin and Ryan Holmes and Green County are building.

affordable housing. And the same thing in Colonial Circle. So I can talk about Colonial Circle. They have 200 single-family attach and detached units. I was on a call yesterday with them. They will, by the middle of next year, be 100% sold and out of that project, years ahead of schedule, right? And it's because it's the price point. You're also going to see Green County, right? Green County, one of the current board members on Green County said there was never going to be any more than 48 or 52 new construction units built a year in Green County. Well, they're way over that, and they're at the middle of this year

and just started rocking and rolling. They're going to put out about 250 units a year. They have 1,200 lots. Many years going forward. That's right. Comments coming in quickly. I'll get to... But the point, Jerry, is we've got to follow the new construction.

We've got to follow the bleeding edge of who's, trying to sell the most homes. This is a great one from Vanessa Parkhill. This is something my wife and I are following closely. And Vanessa is in Eurelesville. She's a savvy, savvy businesswoman, numbers person. What about the adjustment of the way capital gains is calculated? There's a discussion now that the capital gains cap could be escalated. Might long-time owners or people have inherited property be more willing to sell in that scenario? I'll put that in perspective, throw it to you guys, a married couple, the first $500,000 and gains sheltered from tax exposure. We just, that's what, we did this in Glenmore.

We're going to do this again in Ivy here. The, the federal government is talking about raising that $500,000 for a married couple as high as maybe $750,000, where that first $750,000 and net proceeds would be sheltered from tax exposure. Does that have an impact on things? it's not any conversation that I've had with anybody yet that's really thinking about that at all but you know letting people keep more their equity after

but on your primary residence I haven't helped a lot of people at least they haven't told me that they had so much equity they were paying capital gains on that. So it's only only under the two year window right? So once you're... No it's in after the two year window selling it for more than you're allowed to adopt

is what he's talking about. No I don't think you know what I think what helped? I think we have a lot of people out there that own investment property that would like to sell it that don't want to pay capital gains. And if we came up with a program for people that had owned a home for more than 10, 15, or whatever it is, and figured out a way to lower the capital gains on investors who are done being investors, that you would get more inventory. And then the second, I'll let's, well, yeah, let's, Rod, John.

Well, no, I haven't seen it to be much of an issue. As I think if you're in your home past two years, you can keep up to 500,000. It's really an issue that someone has more than that need of having more than 500. I think raising at the $750 would be great, and I do, but I haven't really like great. I don't think it's solving any problems. Okay. The clients you're dealing with are not sitting on equity larger than $500,000? Well, no, I mean, some are, but they're just sitting on.

I just haven't had the situation where they have, you know, a million dollars in equity, but they have to pay. Why this is as important is what Greg was talking about the appreciation thing. And that's what the government's trying to do. That $500,000 was based on an appreciating rate from a long time ago. If we don't want people to pay taxes on their capital gains and their primary residents, they should raise it, right, because they are achieving more equity in that regard. But it's not that it's not happening, is that these sellers aren't talking about it, at least not with me.

Okay, comments coming in. This is an interesting comment here. The panel is saying that price reductions are happening at a quick clip and that homes are being removed off the market at a quick clip, yet the homes continue to increase in value. Why is that? Well, I just again, I think it's frustrated sellers that are not being patient with the market and they're deciding that I don't have to sell today.

So I'm going to kind of this little bit of slower period that we're having, I'm going to wait it out. And that's kind of the uneducated seller or the seller who's just stubborn, who doesn't want to go with what's happening out there. Or they're just not that motivated to sell. And you maybe have an agent on the other side that's not educating them. Right. And the agent possibly is. There's a variety of answers to that. one is what Keith just said. Some people are

overpaying for houses right now and don't realize it. But the other is, it takes a long time to unwind what's happening. And so, like I said, we're slowing it. And there is still in many segments of the market enough demand to meet the supply. And highlight those segments.

We know the answer. But we can go out to Croze and talk about four and five bedroom homes under a million dollars. I mean, I just saw a FISBO never hit the MLS. They didn't hire a realtor for sale by owner. For $1.2 million dollars in Westlake that sold, right? That's $1.2 million for a home that

six or seven years ago was 600 grand, 700 grand. So, they are places, that's what I say, to understand value have to understand demand. When I sit down with a client that's selling their houses, I immediately do an analysis of who their buyer is and how many of them are in the market that can

afford their home. The boomers are still driving the market in many segments. The folks that are selling their homes with all this equity that now may risk them being capital gains tax are coming here and it's fine. It doesn't matter what the prices are. They're buying their last home and they don't care. I'm going to try to answer that question a little bit different. Can you put that slide up please? Thank you. So year to date,

single family detached only. I took out new construction because to the conversation right, I think that skews the numbers a little bit. There was, and the reason I'm using single family detached existing, it makes all counties equal, right? It doesn't make Almar County because it got a lot of condo sales and so forth and so on. There's 1,000 homes that's sold. If you priced your home correctly going in, 74% of those homes sold in a medium days of six days on market. And 28% of the total 1,000 homes got over $20,000 for the property. So if you price it right, you're in the right condition, right location, right features and all that stuff, you are going to be selling your house for over what you're listing for it at a 28,

percent chance, and you're going to get about 3 to 4 percent more for the house. If you don't, you're going to sit on the market for about 60 days. You're going to take an 8 percent haircut. It's interesting, though, what Greg is highlighting, though, is how many of these sellers are actually legitimate about selling their home, or

rather are pursuing a number? Like a rainbow, a pot at the end of the rainbow number. And we'll never know. We'll never know. Because what happens is when the home comes off the market, one of three things can happen. They can rent it. They can stay in it. Or they can wait to the spring and try again.

Right. According to NAR, the 5Ds is roughly 80% of the sale. So about 20% is what we're talking about. And they're just testing the market. Because when we do it and no pressure on you guys, we're going to be chasing a number. And if it doesn't go, then we're pulling it off. So we're one of those people. Just to let you know. Thanks, buddy.

Okay. I mean, it's not going to be about anything else besides chasing a number because we're comfortable we're at. I don't find that most people are, if we're on the buyer's side, are chasing a number. trying to make a huge long-term decision for their family and where they want to live because of a change of employment or the five Ds. Right, that's not us. We don't have to do it. But the seller conversation is different.

Yeah, right. 100%. Comments continue to come in. This one, why don't we start with Rod on this, can he highlight, can the panel highlight the pockets that are still hot and which pockets have cooled locally? And then I'll go to Jamie Turner, Mayor Gordonsville on YouTube next. But first, hot pockets and cool pockets. Well, I think there's some really interesting properties in Crozet, in certain neighborhoods, just like the, what he, and that sale that went from $1.2 million.

Westlake. Westlake. And so there's some really neat, but it's, we have these mountain views. So many properties have to beat either a water feature or a mountain view. I think unique properties like that will still hold their weight and hold their value. So I just think that those, those are the kind of the hot market, the unique properties and these really special. areas. I think Ivy is still a very steady where you live, Jerry.

I still think Crozé. But right now I think I've had a couple recent sales in Waynesboro. My team has as well. I think Waynesboro is becoming kind of the more Crozay moving out towards Waynesboro and you can get a lot more for your money in Waynesboro. So I feel that the

Waynesboro market right now is pretty steady. Particularly with Gas dropping a little. And especially with Northrop Grumman, about 100 new jobs out there at six figures with that new factory they're doing. Greg, your thoughts on that one? Well, there's so many layers to it. You know, closest to me out in Crozet, single-family detached homes on a half-acre or more are in demand, if they're priced correctly.

And they're always going to be because they're not making any more half-acre lots in Elmar County. So you've got the school systems, you've got the beauty of that side of the county, and you've got family homes. One of the areas that you have to watch seasonally is the townhome market because it is a spring market and the best time to buy if you're, trying to be aggressive on prices later in the year. But what are we building more of now? Attached versus detached. So the supply has slowly been shifting for the last decade. That's back to watching the builders, right? Right. And so when there are enough homes to satisfy demand, it slows appreciation and eventually stops price appreciation. We're not doing that in the detached segment of the market. It's happened twice in my career. This is the way I'll explain it.

When you have a fever pitch of buying that occurred for the last four years, like you did from 2004 to 2007, we talk about location, location, location. In a balanced market, you have A, B, C, and D locations. In a fever pitch market, it goes to A and B. The buyers scrutinize these things less, and their criteria lowers, and they become hyper-focused on getting a house. So we just came out of a period where there were only A and B locations, and everything was okay. We were back to, I'm working with people

who are choosing among communities within Crosay instead of trying to get into Crosay. They're choosing along this street versus that street and they have time. And what's really happening to our market that's slowing things down we haven't talked about is we beat the crap out of buyers for four years and didn't give them any time to make thoughtful decisions.

I'm helping people see homes more than once before they make an offer again. Isn't that awesome? I'm watching people wait and not make a decision because they have time on their side. And so you're counseling them. And we're helping and realize they don't have to rush in and they can make a more balanced decision.

I love this market because this is when the pros show up, right? And, you know, this is, you know, you've got to know how to do the business of being a real estate professional. Just to answer the where question a little bit, I actually this morning ran this data. Of the thousand sales, this is only something. single-family detached, right? The most popular subdivisions like Monticello at 115 of those

thousand sales. And why is that? Because a price. Yeah. Affordable is winning right now. The other segment of the market that's untouchable now. It used to be, I would say, over a million, but now it's like over two million? That stuff still sales. Yeah. Is it $2 million the new luxury? It used to be a million is the new million and up. Is it now $2 million in up? You could say that, sure. You can argue that for sure. I mean, I... There's a lot of million to two that are like, this needs renovation. work.

I've watched town new townhomes go from the 300s, 400s, to 500s, and now, in some cases, over 600 for a townhome. And, yes, these single family homes oftentimes not even in a basement, a new construction world, are $900 or a million. And you're almost disadvantaged in some cases, Keith, to be in the business this long because you know the past. And so you get shocked a little easier about what the value of things are. This is a real estate investor, Jamie Turner.

Can they talk about what they are seeing with concessions? I know a couple that recently bought that had a tremendous amount of money off the price and closing costs, paint budget included. And he also says, we are in his team. We aren't really experiencing any true price discovery with these listings. People don't have to sell. They could just tap into their equity if they need to or rent it out, which is kind of the point. We are getting to price discovery, but it's very hard to find.

and that's why the best example I can give you is new construction built in the last five years, right? We know it's a little Kay Schiller. We know what it costs new. I call it a low mileage trade-in, right, in good condition. And so when you can compare that and go, okay, those folks made 8% over the last four years, well, you know what the appreciation rate was now. It was probably higher and decreased greatly and averaged out to 2% a year. You want to touch?

That's great stuff from Slater. I'm going to let you talk because I'm going to actually do a search and find out what to sell the concessions work. Well, I'll say one thing to that question, too. I often advise my clients you don't just have to find the right home. You have to find the right seller. Right, right. And Kay Schiller is what, the benchmark of average single-family home prices in the U.S. Over time.

Over time. Yeah, so that's the reference you made. Yes. Yeah, so seller concessions, I mean, it's, I think it's just a case-by-case, how motivated that seller is. Rodg, why don't you explain what they are real quick for the folks who may not know? What seller concessions are. Well, just even you're discounting the house. You have an overpriced listing.

Then the seller going in knows that I'm going to negotiate. But sometimes you'll see that seller who's just stubborn. And I got it listed at 950 and I want 950. Sometimes they're willing to concede on price. Sometimes they're willing to concede on home inspection repairs are what we call our Hercca. You know, home inspection removal contingency addendum. Points.

And yes. And our points for more. So concessions kind of line up there, but it's a case-by-case basis. So I can tell you the only seller concessions that we're dealing with that we're seeing in our shop is what we're doing with the land trust, which is seller concession where seller is conceding to pay the buyer's closing costs. Other than that, I'm not seeing any. I did a talent for a VA, but they wanted to roll in there. But they came in above ass to get their money.

It netted below ass, but they rolled in all those costs. You're not seeing inspection concessions now? What do you mean? Mike, you know, the seller willing to move on price based on inspection? Well, we're going to go, yeah, we're back to where there's a normal inspection period and people are getting a list of repairs or a concession, sure. And that's one thing I like about this market, which you talked about, that it's not that competitive where people can get home inspections.

And you feel really bad as a buyer's agent again. And your buyer, especially if a first-time buyer, they're buying a 1950 house in Belmont and they're not doing a home inspection. Yeah, it's been honest. Because it's so competitive, it's nervous. ranking. So we are back to doing home inspections, people negotiating those repairs.

Back to, this is when the pros show up in the term negotiating. People just think we negotiate prices we don't. That laundry list is very long of what we actually negotiate. And sometimes we're doing it right up to the closing. Layers of negotiations. We've got four minutes left because this man's about to win

a match, 6060 Rod Phillips, and I truly believe that's going to happen. Why don't we take the last four minutes to highlight the event again? We should do that. Thank you. Again, it's September 4th. It's Thursday. It's open.

Come with a realtor or just come. It's a $50 ticket. It all goes to the calls. Affordable housing. Greg's done a great job. And Keith and the whole committee are sponsors. Gone country, a wonderful band. It's going to be a fun night.

It's going to be not one of these boring fundraiser type events. This is a concert. We're there to have fun, have a couple beers, some good food. a great venue in Pro Renata. Thank you, John Shab again. He's watching. And John, and the team Lindsay and Nora, Nora's the event coordinator. Lindsay is the general manager who's been wonderful to that venue.

Dino's doing the food. And thank you, Brian Combs, all that you do. And anyways, September 4th at Pro Renata in Crozé at 5 p.m. And the musical start at 6. Please donate if you can't come. It's a great cause and I'm happy to be involved with the team. I will say this about John and his team. When we had this idea and went to him, it was a yes without a blink. And they've been super

supportive. And that's why we put first annual on it. We want to do something that people don't want to miss each year. Like Rod said, we're going to keep it simple. We're going to have some beverages and some food and we're going to get down to playing music. It's not a lot of presentation or anything like that. It's a great opportunity to have some fun. We're trying to get more realtors out there because we've lost that socialization of realtors a little bit. Yeah, to try to get some of that back. But I've talked to

some people who are like I've always wanted to go to Pro Renata and check it out. This is a great reason if you're not a media. If you live in Crozet, you've probably been many times. But if not, it's worth the trip because I started following Rod would tell me about concerts after the fact and I'd be like, I didn't even know about that. So now

I follow them on event rights since I buy tickets there and you get an email that tells you all these acts they have booked over the next few weeks, and it's remarkable. It's remarkable the entertainment. It's a great line. They even had like Abba, right? We do. We have them coming back next month. It's crazy. The diversity of entertainment that happens in Pro Renata for sure. Yeah. So, yeah, it's just a great place. Tonight, again, there's a Rush Tribute band, and I'll get up and introduce the band, give a little plug to some future stuff and our September 4th event as well. And just want to encourage and put it

out there. Realters, if you haven't gotten your ticket, it yet. Get them. They are going fast, but there's still plenty right now. So 187 of $3.50 left, and we do fully, based on the conversations we're having, I think they're all sell out. People are just a little slow to pull the trigger. How many days we got left here? Do the math, like 19. Well, September 4th.

What do you guys have, like, 1,200 realtors and car? Affiliates and members, it's over 1,000 for sure. Over-affiliate, probably from realtors standpoint is a good 800, 850, I think. We're not going to We're not going to go down this. Don't go there. We will.

Look, again, it's not. Not for realtors only. We should be able to sell all the tickets to realtors, but we already have people in the community that want to come out. It's interesting how many people are interested in the affordable housing conversation that don't know how to engage in it. So this could be your chance to come. So it's roughly, if just the ticket sales, it's roughly $18,000, just to put it in perspective, that will help almost every one of the sales. We've got a Victorian Heights on closing. Without donations. I can tell you, there are several people who are paying $500 for four tickets, right? They want to make a donation and they want to come.

And it's a tax write-off. All the above. Yes. So thank you for a couple. Just real quick. Pete Coker in my office. Thank you, Pete. Pete put in $1,000. He's only getting six tickets, but he just wants to be part of this. Christian Street Cummings, one of our VIP sponsors. She put in $2,000 for her team. Loring Woodruff just bought 10 tickets. I've got feelers out to Sasha Farmer, Denise Ramey. And just, you know, all the realtors that I deal with on a weekly basis, but please, you know, get your tickets, even if you can't come, please donate to this great cause. So, gentlemen, as the chair of the Piedmont Community Land Trust, thank you, thank you, and thank you again.

And it was a lot of fun to talk real estate. I love talking real estate. Oh, so fun. You guys are great. It was a lot of fun panel. That went by fast. The cameras and microphones are always available to you guys. Yeah, absolutely. Judah Wickower behind the camera, Real Talk with Key Smith, Archive, wherever you get your podcast.

Thank you, Judith. The best. Thank you, Jerry. Also archived on Real Talk with Keith Smith.com. Thank you for joining us on the show. The I Love Sevo Show guys is up at 1230. Thank you. Nice enough, boys.

He'll let us know in the mic. We'll let us know. Thank you. Thank you.