The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Is The American Dream A Pipe Dream Now If You Live In Charlottesville, Virginia?

Episode Date: May 8, 2025

s The American Dream A Pipe Dream Now If You Live In Charlottesville, Virginia? The I Love CVille Show airs live Monday – Friday from 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm on The I Love CVille Network. Watch and listen to The I Love CVille Show on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, iTunes, Apple Podcast, YouTube, Spotify, Fountain, Amazon Music, Audible, Rumble and iLoveCVille.com.

Guys, welcome to the I Love Seaville show. My name is Jerry Miller. Thank you kindly for joining us on Thursday in downtown Charlottesville. It's a pleasure to connect with you guys through the I Love Seaville network. This program, as you may know, 15 Facebook pages, 15 Twitter accounts, YouTube, iTunes, Apple podcasts, LinkedIn, Instagram, the Fountain app, the Rumble app. I'm forgetting some. It's on every platform. And what we try to do with the show is we try to highlight content that is local to you, the viewer and listener. This past week, I think we've done a fairly decent job of highlighting new

development that's happening in the Charlottesville and Amar County markets. And the development that's being constructed is multi-family, build for rent development. This is not build to purchase. This is build to rent. I did a post at about 12 o'clock today, so about 35 minutes ago, doing a, it's called the tail of the tape of four development projects. The old IV resonance project, which is 525 units on the 250 bypass and old IV road, that's the biggest one. The second biggest one is subtext and a project called Verve. The Verve is next to Scott Stadium. That's 463 units. More than

1300 beds there. The third biggest one is Bloom, an out of market developer called Up Campus Student Living. Next to Bo's Barbecue is doing 231 units and 641 beds. And I was reminded after yesterday's show by a Darden, a UVA Darden graduate that is now working in high level finance in Manhattan, lives in Chelsea, that I should include the Darden project that's on grounds. And he said, I've watched your show, he's watching in Manhattan, I follow the network, he loves the content, he said. And he said, look at what's going on with the Darden school.

UVA's the developer, gave me a little information, I did some research today, and he's right, I should include the University of Virginia and what they're doing here. They are doing on grounds housing for Darden students. 218 units and 348 beds. They're currently fundraising for naming rights at the Darden school. So if you include the Darden project in the mix, ladies and gentlemen, amongst the four build for rent new development projects, all of them being constructed exactly right now within three miles of each other in

Albemarle County and the city of Charlottesville, you're going to have within a nine month period of time, 1,437 new luxury units coming to market. I'm going to say that again very succinctly. There's four build for rent real estate development projects that are under construction right now. Three of those four are either international, which is gray star, or national developers, the national ones, subtext and up campus student living. One of them is local, the University of Virginia, its project at the Darden School.

Those four are bringing projects to market within a nine month period of time of each other somewhere summer 2026 to 2027 that nine month period of time and those four projects have a combined 1437 luxury units that will be available for rent for students and for locals alike. I want to talk about that impact on today's show, on the I Love Seville show. We're also going to highlight on the program that the budget is now approved. It's been rubber stamped by the Amar County Board of Supervisors. What's intriguing about this budget, for the first time in a really long time, since before COVID, that supervisors have decided to raise the real estate tax rate. They're popping or increasing

or upticking it four cents. The intriguing thing about this, you look at the dynamic of the board and Jim Andrews is stepping off the board. Diantha McKeel is stepping off the board. So as Jim Andrews, a one-term supervisor, leaves the dais and as Diantha McKeel, a four-term supervisor, leaves the dais, their parting gift to Alamora Countyians is a 4-cent real estate tax rate increase, ladies and gentlemen. It's the gift that keeps on giving. Rarely do you see governments ever cut that tax rate. You may see jurisdictions choose not to move the tax rate, keep it in place like Al Moral has done since the pandemic and up until last night, keep the tax rate the same, but

you rarely, if ever seen it, drop. So the parting gift from Diantha McKeel and Jim Andrews is this 4-cent real estate tax rate increase. We'll talk about that on today's show. I want to salute Ryan Odom. He threw out the first pitch yesterday at the Dish at Davenport with Virginia baseball, doing whatever it humanly can to make a late push for some postseason magic. Ryan Odom has done a good job of late trying to indoctrinate

or assimilate himself into Charlottesville and Alamaro County's communities. You see him having lunch and burgers at Riverside, taking pictures with locals, throwing out the first pitch and really it comes down to what's the product he's going to put on the field and put on the court, excuse me. And so far the talent on this Virginia basketball roster is a United Nations who's who of talent. He's got international players galore. I promise I'm gonna get to the highlights of the CAR first quarter report. Touched on it briefly yesterday but I think there's very good information in there that needs to get out to you. We promise we'll try to get to

that today. I wanted you to give some props if you can tighten my frame a little bit here. Tighten the shot, the one shot a little bit more for me. That'd be great. I want to also give some love to Charlottesville Sanitary Supply. 60 consecutive years of business for Charlottesville Sanitary Supply. 60 consecutive years of business for Charlottesville Sanitary Supply. 60 plus actually, I mean we're approaching 61. John Vermillion, Andrew Vermillion,

online at CharlottesvilleSanitarySupply.com, located on East High Street, Charlottesville Sanitary Supply, where City Council's eminent, domaining property, East High Street. The Vermillion are great men, and the company is a genuine, bona fide, honest, hardworking, do what's best for customer's company.

Charlottesville Sanitary Supply. I have a question from a very important viewer and listener. Stephanie Wells-Roads is watching the program in the Keswick, Troy area and she says, Jerry, do you have any news or do any of the viewers have any news on the CVEC Firefly outage? So any viewer and listener, if you can answer the question from Stephanie that's on YouTube, do you have any news on the outages for CVEC and Firefly? If you have news, put them in the feed and I will relay them live on air to Stephanie. Conan Owen makes a very good point and I agree with him. His photo on screen, Conan Owens, Judah.

He said that 4 cent tax rate increase is nothing compared to the increased assessments. It was nice of the county layout where the money from the increase is going, but it's pathetic that it never occurred to them to find some spending cuts to pay for it. Conan, Owen, you and I are in agreement on a number of things.

I sincerely mean that. I also agree with you. How Albemarle County positioned the 4 cent real estate tax rate increase. They were very quick to say this 4 cent real estate tax rate increase is for more firefighters, more police officers, and affordable housing,

because they're tugging at the heartstrings of fire and rescue and affordability. And those heartstrings carry a lot of political weight or empathy. But to Conan's point, the county's already getting a boatload of incremental revenue since our assessments went up in Alamaro County a significant amount year over year.

And if you look at what assessments have done over the last four years, I mean, we all realize that we have significant equity in our homes. If we owned a home before COVID and still are in that home or own a home now, we're sitting on significant equity. The average American since the beginning of COVID till now has seen about 40, 45% appreciation in home value. But other viewers and listeners have made this point.

That's not actual tangible wealth. It's not tangible wealth until you sell your house. And really all you're doing is being taxed on gains that you cannot hold or touch or spend. So that's the point. Kevin Yancey, Bill McChesney, welcome to the program. Viewers and listeners, thank you for watching of all shapes and sizes.

Curtis Shaver has an answer for Stephanie Wells-Rhodes. Curtis Shaver's watching in Greene County. He says, apparently Firefly is out from Greene County to Nelson County. Curtis Shaver, one of the newest stakeholders and influencers in God's country, in Greene County. Philip Dow watching the program, he says, I'm having firefly issues, Stephanie in Scottsville.

So here you have Scottsville and Phillip Dow answering Stephanie Wells-Rhodes' question in Keswick and Troy, and Green County's Curtis Shaver offering perspective as well. That's what makes this program great. That's exactly what we're looking for here. If you're having Firefly CVEC issues

and you can share some perspective, put them in the feed. I will relay them live on air as Stephanie is looking for some guidance here and we're doing our best to help each other out. Judah Wickhauer, two shot, studio camera and two shot. I wanna weave you into the mix. And I don't wanna underestimate or devalue

or I kinda talked over it, I have a bad habit of talking over, especially on this show because I get really caught up On the topic matter that we're talking about you made the really good point yesterday About all these units coming to market at the same time That let's see how the cookie crumbles because if the cookie crumbles a certain way it could in fact because if the cookie crumbles a certain way, it could in fact stabilize rents or decrease rents. And it could in fact stabilize home prices. I was quick to assume that's what you were gonna say.

My assumption was right. Then I was answering what I thought you were gonna say, which is what you were gonna say, by saying the population is going to increase. So these uptick in units and within a nine month period of time, from about summer 2026 to spring 2027, we're going to have Judah 1437 luxury units come to market across four different projects. And that doesn't even include by 202727 the University of Virginia doing its best to build

housing for second years to live on grounds. So that's going to be more people taking out of the rental ecosystem. I'm just so convinced that with the influx of people coming here that this housing stock will be earmarked or will be rented. I reached out to our people over in Stonefield at the, is it the Elysian, the Elysian? And they said those units are starting to get rented. That's good.

Those units are starting to get full. They missed a rental cycle, and because they missed a rental cycle, that set them back, but they're starting to get full. I've been told that the Verve and Subtex, the apartment tower next to Scott Stadium also missed a rental cycle, but they seem very confident when one of their directors of development came on the show that they were gonna fill these spaces.

So first off, I never wanna, you know, I was watching or thinking about yesterday's show and I shouldn't have jumped in that way. Secondly, I'm curious of what your take now that we have even more intelligence with the Darden School building housing for second years. Now, it's important to emphasize, when the Darden School is building housing

for 218 units and 34 emphasize when the Darden School is building housing for 218 units and 348 beds for Darden students, it's also upticking its enrollment. It's important for me to emphasize this. Darden may be taking a portion of the MBA rental population and putting it on grounds with this 218 unit, 348 bed development that's gonna open in the summer of 2027. But Darden has also clearly said on record, we're gonna admit more students to the Darden School.

So when they admit more students, it's not just like, UVA has been saying that as well. UVA is gonna do it as well. Right, UVA is gonna do it as well. And we highlight Paul Manning's biotech and Jeffrey Woodruff's data science. UVA has been saying that. UVA is going to do it as well. Right, UVA is going to do it as well. And we highlight Paul Manning's biotech and Jeffrey Woodruff's data science. And it's not just students, but it's staff, it's directors,

and it's the businesses that kind of siphon or pop up on the supply chain of all the schools and all the new bodies here. So curious some of your takes here. I concluded my analysis on the I Love Seville Network by saying this, and I published this about 30 minutes before the show. You can find it on any of our Facebook pages.

I believe you have it up on Instagram, on I Love Seville Instagram, on my LinkedIn, on Twitter, my Facebook, I Love Seville Facebook, I Love Seville Food Facebook. It's on both Instagrams. It's on both Instagrams. Okay, I Love Seaville Facebook, I Love Seaville Food Facebook. It's on both Instagrams. It's on both Instagrams. Okay, I concluded by saying this. If these four multifamily projects, Judah, do not stabilize rental prices and housing

prices, then that is further justification that the City of Charlottesville new zoning ordinance may be one of the most significant policy failures in city housing history. Explain how? I mean you get 1,437 units flooding the market within nine months of each other and prices, home value still go up and rents still go up, then it's clear to the market that it's not the zoning that's the problem, That it's not the tightness or the restrictiveness of the zoning that's creating this quality of life that's so expensive for all of us.

I published on the I Love Seaville Network yesterday the business model of Grey Star's old Ivy residents and I said the average I think is about $3,500 a month in rent across all product type, across all 525 units on the bypass in Old Ivy Road, and people were shocked by the $3,500 average rent. And then I'm like, guys, are you really that shocked by this? I got a rental at the Vills at Southern Ridge that's just basically $2,600. For a three bedroom, two bath in a condo complex

that was converted from being essentially the ghetto of Charlottesville into a condo that doesn't really have that many amenities and isn't nearly in as good of a location as where the old IV residence is gonna be. And it's 2,600 and By the time old ivy resonances are up. I'm gonna raise that 2,600 another 5% That's another 130 dollars to take the 27 300

I think the 3,500 might be light and then you add in the mix add in the factor that did you see the news with cav crossing? Cavalier crossing was it Sean that reported this? I think Sean Tubbs reported this recently. The owner of Cavalier Crossing, let me see if I can find it, St. Bonaventure, they are looking to take infill, basically a parking lot at the Cav Crossing location right there off old Lynchburg

Road and build more apartment towers on it. They basically scooped up one of the last affordable pieces of housing in Charlottesville. I mean really the last one now is what, Eagles Landing? That's multi-family. I mean, really the last one now is what, Eagles Landing? That's multifamily? Somebody help me out here. What is the last truly affordable multifamily piece of housing in the Charlottesville-Almar County area?

It's probably Eagles Landing, right? Now that Cavalier Crossing is being renovated, remodeled, and repositioned as high end or top of the market. I'm almost positive it was Sean that reported that the owners of Cab crossing, the Northern Virginia folks, are going to take some of that infill, some of that parking lot, and they're going to look to build more apartments on there. So Bill McChesney made this point here. Like are all these people, all these developers,

they're coming to market with, if you include the CAV Crossing project, with north of 1,500, maybe 1,600 units at the exact same time. Yeah. It's bananas to me. Your thoughts, what's the jump in there? How closely tied are the ‑‑ is the apartment market and the housing market?

That's a great question. It's a great question. You want to unpack that? Well, if ‑‑ if some people are just looking for houses, if some people want to buy a house and they're not going to settle for an apartment, then it doesn't matter how many apartments you build, those people are always going to want a house. And if there's nobody building houses, then the housing portion of the market is going to stay tight? Let me ask you this question. And this is one of those things where I don't mean to insult you, but I don't mean to offend you, but one of those things here.

Yeah, it's from the Seaville Weekly. The owners of Cavalier Crossing Apartment Complex on Fifth Street Extended, Bonaventure, it's a real estate investment trust. They are seeking rezoning to add 165 more units to the former CAV Crossing site off Fifth Street Extended, off Old Inchburg Road, 164 units. It's now known as attain on fifth, they've rebranded it. A taint on fifth. Yeah.

I want to... It sounds like you're saying something else. What is it? A taint on fifth. A taint on fifth. Gosh, you sicko. A taint. A taint on fifth. A taint on fifth. Let me ask you this question. Okay. In the least defensive way possible. You're a homeowner. Yeah. Folks that are renting, do they want to rent in perpetuity? Does someone want to rent an apartment in perpetuity? You asked me this question, basically. If there's building these apartments, all these apartments

that are out there, now another 165 to the number that I said amongst the first four, which was 147, that takes us to basically 1,600 units, right? It's over 1,600 units. Those folks that are renting those 1,600 units. Wouldn't you say the overwhelming majority of the people that will rent those 1,600 units, incremental new units, are looking to transition into an ownership model. An overwhelming number of them?

You disagree? I don't have the answer. I don't know if there is even a right answer, but you disagree? I would say that I don't know, I don't have the answer either. I would guess that there's a wide spectrum. There are some people who would love to own a home but don't see it in the cards or whatever. There are some people that, there are some people that don't wanna own a home.

They're like, you know, I don't want the hassle. I don't wanna deal with having to own a home. They're like, you know, I don't want the hassle. I don't want to deal with having to replace a roof. I don't want to deal with having to replace an HVAC unit. I don't want to deal with, you know, whatever it is, whether it's mold, whether it's, you know, leaky pipes. Leave that to someone else. I'll just pay the flat fee, the rent, and be done with it, and I'll be happy. And there are some people that I think don't even, it doesn't even cross their minds.

Some people are just like, well, this is the way it is. There are people out there that own homes, but I'm not one of them. And I'm sure there are some people that just, you know, it's never occurred to them that they could be a homeowner. They've, whether it's because they're always living on the, you know, their last paycheck or whatever reason, it just doesn't seem like an attainable goal. So I think there's, and there are probably other, you know, there are probably other people in that spectrum as well that I'm, that I don't know about. And so I would just ‑‑ I would

guess there are ‑‑ if I had to guess, I would say it's probably less than 50% that look at the apartments out there, look at the apartment there in and say, okay, my goal is getting out of this and getting into a house. I think for some people it just doesn't register. There's no ‑‑ Kurt Shaver says to Stephanie Wells-Rhodes that Firefly just went back on in Green County. Stephanie Wells-Rhodes. So Kurt Shaver is saying it just went back on. Faye Cox Gutierrez watching the program. And she says most, not all of that group, but most want their own home. They need to make it affordable again. I would say if

there's 1600 new units coming to market, somewhere between 2026 and 2027, we've identified that there are 1,600 new incremental units coming to market if Bonaventure can get this rezoning for the infill of the old Cavalier crossing, can build more apartments. Regardless, we know that there are across the four that I highlighted 1,437 new units. I would say of those 1,437 that we know of, potentially more than 1,600, depending on cab crossing, that 75%? It's the American dream. I mean, homeownership is as part of Americana as the McDonald's Golden Arches or Apple Pie or having a cold beer after cutting the grass. I can't think of ‑‑ if you had to break down what the American

dream was, how would you assess what the American dream ‑‑ how would you describe the American dream to somebody if you're sitting at a bar and having a beer with? I'm asking you, Judah, I am new to America, I'm considering coming to America. I hear constantly about the American dream. What is the American dream, Judah? What is the American dream to you? How would you answer that? I would say at one time it was a two‑story house behind a picket fence with a yard and ‑‑ There it is. The first thing you said, the first thing you went to was the house. Yeah.

The first thing you went to was the house. I don't know if people still see it that way. Interesting. That's a great ‑‑ I don't know if you've seen the meme, but there's a meme that shows a couple and it's like my parents ‑‑ my parents in 1960 or 1970 or 1980 or whatever and it shows ‑‑ and then on the other side it shows a house and it says the house they bought for ‑‑ I've seen that meme. $60,000.

It's a picture and it's like, you know, me and everybody else today or whoever they're indicating that you're looking at. And it shows, you know, I don't know what it is. I can't remember what it shows on the other side. But it basically says there's no way that they can afford a house now. It's not the same as it was back then. You can't, you know, you're, I think on the upper one, it also explains that the mom is a stay at home mom, the dad is working a regular job. Nine to five.

He's not like, you know, the CEO of a bank or the owner of a company. He's just working a nine to five job and they can afford to buy a house. And that dream I think for a lot of people is if not gone, at least sullied. It's ‑‑ I don't know. It's more of a pipe dream. A pipe dream? So the American dream is the American pipe dream now? Yeah. I think for a lot of people. Just at just look at social media. Look at the younger generations and how they, whether it's quiet quitting or living in their parents' basement or just wanting, you know, we've talked about people wanting to be influencers. Because they look around them and they're like, nothing else is going to give me, you know, nothing else is going to help me

afford a home, is going to help me afford to keep a nice car. They see it all slipping away. I like it. This is a good topic here. Is the American dream on May 8th, 2025, home ownership? Or is it the American pipe dream? I think a lot of people see it as an American pipe dream. And we've discussed the... Then what is the American dream today? Survival. And we've discussed the... Then what is the American dream today? Survival. Wow.

Has it become that? Viewers and listeners, are we... I mean, don't get me wrong. No, no. There are a lot of people that are getting by, that are doing well, but... And maybe this is bias based on what we see on social media. Everybody's glued to these things and you see, you know, you see what other people are doing, you see how, you see what you imagine

a successful person looks like. Yeah, someone's Instagram grid. And so, but there is, I think there's a grain of truth in all of the memes and it's true. You can't have a one income house, you can't have a one income family and be buying a house in Charlottesville today. It just doesn't work that way. Viewers and listeners, your thoughts? You're a one income family owned house. I had help. You didn't have help. I did have help. You structured a really good deal. And I got help from my parents. I couldn't have done it myself. I spent my entire savings paying off things that I had to pay off in order to get to

the point that I could buy the house. Is the American dream in 2025 for Charlottesville survival? Is the American dream for 2025 in Almar County survival? American dream for 2025 in Alomar County, survival. Is the American dream for 2025 in Charlottesville and Alomar County, home ownership? Are these 1,400 to 1,600 units that are coming on market in 2026, 2027, are all they going to do is be housing quicksand for the tenants. By housing quicksand, we all know the situation. You're in a lease. You want to get out of the lease. You can't get out of the lease. You're trapped with the lease.

You can't afford the lease. Can't break the lease. And every year, the rent goes up. And you can't afford the lease, can't break the lease, and every year the rent goes up. And you can't get into another lease because if you're barely making the rent payment on one place, how are you gonna save up for the what, first month, last month? And security deposit.

That's three months of rent. Plus the moving. When you can barely pay for one month. Plus the moving and the time and cost involved. Exactly. And do the developers of these four projects, let's be specific, three of them, one of them's UVA, three of them are out of market developers,

are they aware of these dynamics? And do they price the product at the point where it's enough, barely enough that you can afford, but not enough for you to do anything else with? Or is that just a feature of the market? Or is that a byproduct of the cost of development? This comes in from somebody who's in development that listened to yesterday's show.

So the beautiful thing about the program is we're learning from viewers and listeners. So this is from somebody who has asked to keep their name out of it. They work in development. This particular person works in development. He says, I was listening to, and this is not deep throat, in fact, he references deep throat in the comment.

He says, I was listening to yesterday's show and penciling things out, and my guess for all in cost at Old Ivy with the Grey Star Project was $225 million, assuming average unit is 1,800 square feet since mix of apartments and dense houses. Then he says, I heard Deep Throat do an estimate of between 200 million and 250 million,

so that made me feel good about my napkin math. He says, here's my breakdown. $225 million for the Grey Star Old Ivy Residence Project, that's 525 units, means they probably are bringing $75 million cash to the table, and then we'll get institutional financing of $150 million maybe from a life insurance company. Let's walk down the cash on cash. $3,500 rent a unit per month.

$22 million top line revenue less the $2 million real estate tax. You have a 5% vacancy minus the 10% net operating expense. The ownership will eat that. Pass through charges won't cover. Then let's say 150 million loan interest only for three years at 6%. That's 9 million cash per year. That leaves about 8.2 million net cash on cash annually against the 75 million outlay, which is about a 10% IRR cash. There could be major mistakes in the above math, but back at the envelope, I would bet this is the business model and required average rent combining apartments and houses.

Hope this offers some insight. You have to keep my name out of this. This is from someone literally that does this professionally for a living, a heavy hitter, offering this perspective. A model of what is happening on Old Ivy Road. I'm gonna ask you, and if you want some fodder for your cocktail parties for this weekend, is the American dream in Charlottesville and Amar County,

is it survive in a costly rental or is it still home ownership? That's a question that will have easily an hour of fill at your cocktail and charcuterie party. I mean, I've seen... I'm also going to add this. I've said this many times, that Charlottesville and Amar County is no longer a 40-hour work week.

You're clocking 40 hours a week. I would say somewhere between 60 and 80 hours a week, depending on the week. Okay, but that's not... The viewer and listener... You making that statement doesn't... If the viewer and listener wanted to work more than 40 hours a week, that would give them an opportunity to accumulate more earnings and wealth. And if they worked more than 40 hours a week and they were surviving on 40 and they worked

an additional 20, then you could very easily could bank the additional 20 and use that additional 20 to buy some real estate. And then do what I did where you lived in a condo that you didn't want to buy that was literally a converted ghetto on country green. And you live there for seven years and you get some roommates for seven years and then next thing you know you got something that's paid off and then you start playing monopoly and building a holding portfolio. You can do that.

It takes ridiculous sacrifice. It means no vacations, no new cars, working 60, 70 hours a week, having roommates, and being very tight with what you're eating and your spending habits. And if you're willing to do that for seven or 10 years, you could easily buy a home and a rental property. You're now in a position where we could figure something out and you could buy a rental property. You've got what?

Six years, seven years, eight years of equity in there? And on top of that, the home's appreciated significantly and you're living there completely by yourself? You easily could do what I just did. I just happened to do it in my 20s when everybody else I knew in my 20s out of UVA was buying BMWs and Mercedes-Benz and taking trips to the Maltese or to Hawaii or to Europe. And they were working 40 hours a week and they were going out and closing the bars four nights a week and they were spending all their money.

That's the difference. That's why a lot of times where I say in this program, I don't feel guilty for being successful because I understand the sacrifice that was made for 15 years, 10 years of my life where some would say it's your prime years. Single right out of college and you have your first real job that pays some money. Was that the platform for what we have now? Absolutely.

But it was a lot of blood, sweat and tears to get to that point. And you also should offer this, and you've said this before, you also took the risk of starting a business where you're able to pay yourself more money because you're the owner. That's another risk that we did. Comments are coming in. Conan Owen says this, I think there's definitely a generational attitude favoring experiences over things and the idea of being tied to an asset for 30 years isn't something that fits their perceived lifestyle

of themselves. Also, buying a home isn't really economical if your horizon is less than five years because of all the fixed costs of the transaction. Is Charlottesville that stable of a destination for medical personnel and people in the growing tech fields that they would stay here long enough? I do think it is.

I do think that if you talk to the medical professionals that are tied to UVA Health, that this is the end of the road for them professionally. I am not willing to say for the tech personnel that we're at that point yet. I'm not willing to say that tech-wise, we're a San Francisco or an Austin. We don't have enough experience or empirical evidence

or data to make that comment. But from a medical standpoint, I do think we're at that point. I absolutely do. Travis Hackworth is watching the program in Danville, Virginia. I would say that home ownership is still the long-term American dream,

but the short-term is literally survival. You cannot be a one-income household anymore and afford the short-term is literally survival. You cannot be a one-income household anymore and afford the housing prices in today's market, not without substituting in some way a potential second income. Debt and high interest rates are crushing potential home ownership. 100%, Travis. But you just highlighted how you can do it if you want to be a one-income earner. You have to have a second income or work more than 40 hours a week if you're the one income

earner. That's the problem is not everybody is willing to. That is not the problem. This is where Jude and I completely disagree on this. Because you can't just say the bar has moved. The bar has moved. Okay. Well then, this is the problem, Jerry.

You can't say that because when is it? When does you're going to pull? You're going to pull the rug out from someone again. Then you're going to say, oh, well, you're going to say that was saying the bar is going to move a third time. Is that what you're saying? That was five years ago. Now it's 70 hours a week. Oh, oh, I'm sorry.

You thought you were close to getting home. That was five years ago. Now it's 80 hours a week. When does it become too much? When? When is it all your 80 hours a week. When does it become too much? When is it all your time? When does somebody just own you, like we were talking about yesterday with the rentals, when does it become too much? When is it unsustainable? It becomes too much when you're content with your quality of life and what you have. If somebody wants a home and they don't own a home, they want to own a home and they're stuck in a rental that they think is too expensive, but they want to buy a house, their option

is to work more to make more money. Until you raise the bar again. If they don't want to work more to make more money, then they're going to rent their home. They're going to rent. There's no other option. Right. That's the problem. This is what it is. It's not a problem. This is what it is. It's not a problem. This is what it is.

I just don't understand the mindset. Because you're saying that it's no longer this, it's this. And now it's no longer this, it's this. But you can't just keep doing that because eventually there eventually somebody can't work but you realize judah but that's what's gonna happen though right okay and and that's when we're gonna i mean i don't want to i don't want this to be true but eventually there's gonna be blood in the streets because because when this call of duty jerry when you tell someone that they that they have to work every waking hour of the day in order to afford life, something is gonna break.

You can't just keep moving the bar up. I don't know how to respond to that statement outside of saying that's the Charlottesville, that's the Albemarle County, that's the Commonwealth of Virginia and the America we live in. We have six Albemarle County officials on the dais that are making 17 and $18,000 a year to be the Board of Supervisors, who last night just said,

we are gonna raise the personal property tax rate and we're going to raise the real estate tax rate. And they said we're going to raise the real estate tax rate and the personal property tax rate despite the fact that the government sector, the federal government, all these government contractors are facing headwinds. Groceries are expensive, credit card debt is out of control, gasoline still is not cheap, the UVA's got headwinds, pay cuts, freezes left and right, assessments were through the roof, headwinds everywhere, and they basically said, all your possessions, even if you're renting,

we're gonna tax you more. Because if you are renting and the tax rate goes up, the landlord's gonna pass it on to you. It's called the 5% yearly escalator. Of course. It's not the landlord that's going to pay it. It's the tenant that's going to pay it. Six Democrats said that to all of Alamaro County, we understand everyone's struggling financially, but we're going to ask more money of you. Yeah. Okay. This is what we've signed up for. What do you mean what we've signed up for?

They were voted into office by Almar County in overwhelming capacity. Right now there's not a single person running against Ned Galloway who's seeking his third term. Diantha McNeil is finishing her fourth term. Ann Malek is in her fifth term. Bea Lepisto-Curtley is in her second term. This. Lepisto-Curtley is in her second term. This is what Alamaro County wants. That's fair. So there's not gonna be blood on the street. I'm not talking about right now.

There's not gonna be resistance. This is what the voters wanted. If the voters really were like, we're about to have blood on the streets and we're about to get in a royal rum. I never said it was about to occur in the next week if the voters were serious about really revolting They would not be voting these folks onto the dais They would be voting what Nelson County is cutting taxes

Nelson County is cutting tax rates Cutting them. That's awesome. This is what Alamaro County wants, what we're, the world we're in right now. Okay. Alamaro County approved all these developments. They approved the Grey Star Project. City of Charlottesville approved the Subtext Verve Project

and the Bloom Up campus development project. All those projects, all they're gonna do is raise rents. We have this conversation like once a quarter. Philip Dow says in some ways what you're talking about sounds like communism, Judah. What do you mean? That people are going to revolt when it comes to working too much. If you tell them that they have to work every waking hour of the day, then there's not really much of a... There's not really much else they can do.

I'm not saying we're there now. I'm not saying I want us to be there now. I'm just saying, if you keep saying, oh, it's not a 40 hour work week anymore, it's a 60 hour work week. It is a 60 hour work week. And then when you say that's not enough. It is a 60 hour work week. And then when you say that's no longer enough,

it's a 70 hour work week, eventually people are gonna say no. No, that's not eventually what people are gonna say. You know what, they're not gonna say no. No, that's not eventually what people are going to say. You know what? They're not going to say no. You know what they're going to do? They're going to get up and move and leave. And then they're going to be replaced by somebody else that can come into this community and work the 60 hours a week

or the 40 hours a week and pay their bills. And that's called gentrification. And that's why the median family household income, every year we talk about it on this show, has gone up. Every year. Every year it's going up. It doesn't go down. People are just getting replaced. They're getting subbed out. There's no blood on the street. I know you meant that metaphorically. I know you meant that, I'm not literally. I'm talking about when there aren't any more 40‑hour‑week jobs that will pay for a

home in Charleston. And I'll tell you this, and this is a really sad story, I'm going to get to comments here. E.G. Williams, deep throat, I'm going to get to your comments. I'm going to get to folks on LinkedIn, Jeremy Wilson who is watching in Tennessee, multiple states watching the program. Faye Cox Gutierrez is watching in Colorado. She lives in Nelson. I hate to tell people this, okay? Artificial intelligence, AI, and technology, the jobs that will be replaced first are the folks committed to working 40 hours a week. That's the jobs that will be

replaced first. The 40 hour a week lower paying jobs will be the ones cannibalized by artificial intelligence first. Mark it down. The jobs of upper management and C suite decision makers, those are the jobs that will not be replaced initially by AI and artificial intelligence. I'm with you there. Randy O'Neill says jail and work release may be the cheapest housing. You will not replace us was the chant from the tiki torch crowd. What? You said you will not replace us was the chant from the tiki torch crowd. I don't think that applies here. I don't really want to touch that. They weren't talking about

the same ‑‑ Jason Noble pushing back on you, Judah. You mean we have to make sacrifices to get ahead? Eww. That's not fair. Faye Cox Gutierrez to Judah. Gotta give things up to make things happen. I don't disagree. Deep throat on Twitter. Even millennials, and he shares a link from Redfin, vastly prefer the idea of a single family home. 89% of home buyers would prefer a single family home with a backyard over a unit in a triplex with a shorter commute. It's still the American dream. Travis and Danville, he says Danville City Council rejected the suggested utility rate increases last night. Charlottesville's problem is the elected officials.

They've created a political system in which the same people or like people just continue to be elected. It's a popularity contest of personalities and not a contest of the best ideas. Excellent comment from Travis Hackworth. Janice Boyce Trevillion, an American has been chosen as the new Pope. Robert Provost from Chicago. They picked one. Wow. I didn't see that. Deep Throat says to Conan Owens point, at least in finance, this is a place where you do your sayonara job, not where you punch your first ticket. Most of the folks that I know and, most of the folks that I'm friends with or I know professionally have come to Charlottesville as the final destination.

As the final countdown, the final destination. They've sacrificed to get to Charlottesville. William on McIntyre Road, McChesney, we are getting to be like California, where very wealthy or large corporations snatch up the real estate inventory and turn it into investment rental property, thereby increasing prices and making individual home ownership out of reach. This applies for people who are making six figures and

up. I published a snapshot of the four development projects on the I Love Seville network. We've covered old IV residences in the 525 units. We've covered the Verve, the developer is Subtex, and the 463 units. We covered Bloom, the developer is Up Campus Student Living. That's by Moe's Barbecue. 231 units and 641 beds. I did not highlight this week the Darden Schools project, which is coming summer of 2027, 218 units, 348 beds, specifically for Darden MBAs. They are fundraising right now for naming rights for the residences. 218 units, 348 beds, summer 2027. There's four major development projects with a total of 1,437 luxury units that will come on market

within nine months of each other. If you want to see the tail of the tape, look at the I Love Seaville network. That is going to have a significant impact on Charlottesville. And I'm going to tell you, if we do not get affordability from 1,400 and some units coming on market within nine months of each other, then it's clearly an indication that relaxing the zoning was not the solution to breeding affordability. Clearly E.G. Williams is watching the program. If renting a nice apartment is $3,500 per month, can you imagine what the asking price of a nice house in the same area is going to shoot up to? Exactly my point. He also says with folks wanting jobs where they can work from home, I don't see the average person wanting to work 60 hours

a week on or off site of your job. The option is to move to a community that is more affordable. I've talked about Danville, the advantages of Danville, Dan Vegas, and I'm bringing up Danville because Travis Hackworth is watching the program. Travis, I've followed the news. We've had some job cuts in Danville. Goodyear plans to cut approximately 850 jobs at its tire manufacturing plant in Danville. The Goodyear job cuts in Danville are going to have a massive impact on the community. He's the first to say that. What was the second major employer that was laying people off in Danville, Travis?

I know I read that there was a second one. People come here because that's where the jobs are. People aren't moving to Buckingham for the jobs. They're not moving to Dilwyn for the jobs. They may be willing to commute from there to Charlottesville, but somebody that's commuting from Buckingham and Dilwyn to Charlottesville because of affordability, what they don't realize is that commute is basically working that extra 20 hour a week job that I'm talking about. It's a tough pill to swallow. It's just not a 40 hour work week anymore. It was talking about with a mortgage, when you're applying for a mortgage, having the distance you're going to travel be a part of the, I think it might have been, what's his name on Reddit?

One of the local realtors. What's what, what are you saying? Uh, I'll look around for it. No, I can help you with this. It was essentially talking about the fact that, uh, um, how far you're planning to live from work should be a part of the calculation in your mortgage. Jim Duncan was talking about that on Reddit. Yeah, that's what it was.

And I think that's what you're talking about. Essentially, the distance you have to drive is going to affect how much take-home pay you end up with. Yeah. If someone's driving from Dilwyn to Charlottesville for work, you better factor in the fact in your budget fuel and wear and tear on your car and wear and tear on your most precious commodity your time.

People not doing that. Insane. All right, if I don't get to this today, I'm not going to get to it because it's already Thursday. The car Q2 report, Q1 report, excuse me, was out. And the sales activity was flat in the car region this quarter. 695 closed sales in the area during the first quarter of 2025, which was one additional sale than this time last year.

Ladies and gentlemen, home prices at the car footprint rose. The region-wide median sales price in the car footprint was 450,000 in the first quarter. That's 3% or 15K higher than this time last year. And in pockets of Charlottesville and Almaro, it rose even more. If you want to break into the area between the Lewis Mountain neighborhood and the 240-250 split, basically Ivy,

that shot rocketed upward double digit percentage points year over year. The entry point in that quarter for a, breaking into the quarter is about a million one to break into that quarter, folks. And you're gonna need a lot of work to put into the house. Active listing supply continues to grow. You're seeing the balance in a lot of the Charlottesville

Area Association footprint become more equal amongst buyers and sellers. You're seeing buyers having a little bit more negotiating leverage, where home inspections are returning, where some closing costs in some circumstances are being offered, where homes are getting long with their days on market. Will it stay the same?

Who knows? Jerome Powell said yesterday, we're not cutting rates anytime soon. And Powell told the entire world, I'm not gonna cave to Donald Trump's pressure to cut rates. What the administration wants has no effect on me as the chair of the Fed. He said that yesterday. He's not going to be bullied by Trump. He said that. This is from

deep throat. The Seaville urban ring is not attractive enough from an amenity or opportunity standpoint that people will work any amount to stay here. He says, I think the limit that Judah is trying to fill out is that a certain point people are going to leave. There are a lot of places in the U.S. that are still pretty cheap where you can get a low credential service job and live okay. I do... My actual point is that when Jerry's, what Jerry is talking about is occurring all across the United States and there is nowhere else to go to Then there's going to be a serious problem and the fact that you can say well here

You have to work 60 hours a week to survive well Once that starts spreading and once that you know that is spreading once you raise that bar too high and Once you raise that bar too high and... Judah, this is where the... You want to know where the bar is going to be raised, okay? And I'm not trying to get doom and gloom for the viewers and listeners. Do you want to know where the bar is going to be raised to? Okay. Okay?

The average effing American is going to have to work 60 hours a week just to keep up with artificial intelligence that could do his or her job in ten minutes. That's where the bar is going to go. Do you hear that, viewers and listeners? But artificial intelligence is going to do what you do in 60 hours a week in ten minutes. There's artificial intelligence that is doing the role, is doing the stuff of MBAs that are

products of the Ivy League that got masters in business from Ivy League schools that are working for the most prestigious banks in the world. They're taking companies public. Documentation and a process to take a company public that is taking middle level executive weeks to do., artificial intelligence is doing in hours. And these are the smart, these are Ivy League graduates with high level degrees in finance. The average Joe and the average Sally is not going to say, oh, my God, I have to work 60 hours a week to get a house. It's going to have to work 60 hours a week to get a house. It's gonna have to work 60 hours a week

just to keep your effing job. Not to be replaced by a robot. And if you don't think that, if you think, do you think what I'm saying is hyperbole? What? What I just said there? That AI is gonna, I mean, it's already on, look, we've seen it all over the place.

There was, every leap in technology is supposed to make life easier for us, but in essence it ends up. There it is. It ends up cutting into the workforce. There it is. A machine can do it better, okay, well somebody still needs to watch the machine,

but you can replace the 10 people with the one machine and the two people that can keep the machine oiled and the program running correctly. Jason Noble, sounds like a Nike commercial for Loading a Trade. Fay Cox Goodyear is in Colorado, agrees with us. Travis Hackmore said the Goodyear plant was bad news for Danville and he highlights the other major layoff,

the other company that had major layoffs in Danville was Morgan Olson. They were in the, they're in the plywood business, Morgan Olson. He says there's some good news for Danville though. Site Selection Magazine has announced that MicroPorus, a lithium ion battery separator manufacturer has been recognized as a 2024 top deal in North America. In November of 2024, MicroPorus announced plans to invest 1.35 billion to establish a new facility in Pennsylvania County

and create 2,000 plus jobs. Nice. Jeremy Wilson in Tennessee says, maybe it's time to hear the trumpets play. Go six feet under. To go six feet under, I think, is what he's alluding to. All right, it's 1.37, and of work, we got to go make some money. You want to see a microcosm of what?

A microcosm of what it could be? A microcosm of what it's going to be, go into the McDonald's at the base of Pantops. That McDonald's that was normally run by ten or twelve people is being run by There are people in the back cooking the food. All orders are done on a kiosk. They're pushing you to not even use the drive-through anymore. They're pushing you to order the food on your phone and parking to a parking space in front of the building and have the food delivered to your window and not wait in the drive-through. They are replacing people.

60 hours a week is not to own a home. 60 hours a week is to save your job. Thursday edition of the I Love Seville Show. So long, everybody...