The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Jesse Bellavance And Matthias John Joined Alex Urpí & Xavier Urpí On “Today y Mañana!"

Episode Date: February 15, 2024

Jesse Bellavance, Owner of Bellavance Ink, and Matthias John, Owner of Matthias John Realty, joined Alex Urpí & Xavier Urpí On “Today y Mañana!” “Today y Mañana” airs every Thursday at 10:15 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Today y Mañana” is presented by Emergent Financial Services, LLC, Craddock Insurance Services Inc, Castle Hill Cider, and Matthias John Realty, with Forward Adelante.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Today y Mañana. I'm Alex. This is Xavier. We're very excited to have you joining us. It's definitely a chilly morning here in Charlottesville. It feels nice in the sun. Well, it's gorgeous in the sun. I mean, I left the house this morning, right? And I knew it was cold because all the grass in the back was like all ice. So I said, oh, it must be cold out there, right? I looked, it's 24 degrees.

But I walked out, and it's just, I mean, I didn't feel cold at all. I mean, it just felt so nice because the sun was already shining and once you walk to the sun, it just feels good. Exactly. The sun on your face is beautiful. But then the shade comes and you're like, oh, I do need my nice warm coffee.

Yeah, absolutely. A nice cafe con leche comes in extremely handy. I mean, for me, maybe even hot chocolate, but that's a more evening thing, right? Because supposedly it makes you feel comfortable and go to sleep. Yeah, which we don't want you falling asleep on the show. Well, does that mean everyone might not know that it was hot chocolate, that they might just think, oh, man, Xavier, he's getting hot. No, no, no, no. You know me well enough.

It's very hard for me to fall asleep any time during the day. After my glass of wine at night, maybe. That's different. Before that, no way. It doesn't happen. It's a great day. Get something warm. Get to a cozy spot.

I'm watching today in Mignogna. We're going to be joined by some fantastic guests a little bit. We're going to be joined by Jesse Belovance from Belovance, Inc. And then later in the show, we're going to have a monthly meetup with Matias. Matias Yon from Matias Yon Realty is going to be joined by Jesse Belovance from Belovance, Inc. And then later in the show, we're going to have a monthly meetup with Matias. Matias Yon from Matias Yon Realty is going to be coming on. Looking forward to both. Looking forward to both. Absolutely.

A big thank you, of course, to Emergent Financial Services for presenting and for our great partners at Craddock Series Insurance, Matias Yon Realty, Kessel Hill Cider, Ford Adelante, and, of course, just love being here on the I Love Ceebo Network set. This is fantastic. Yeah, you know, it's funny. Also, I was on the way in today with Michael, right? We were talking.

He told me that, I guess, pitchers and catchers, I think, came, you know. Oh, were reporting. Reporting. I don't know if it was yesterday or today or something, right? And so I said to him, I said, and this is a line from a movie. I said, what are we going to be doing today? Remember from The Rookie? Oh, what do we do today?

That's right. We get to play baseball, right? So I was thinking about it. I said, what do we get to do today? Today, mañana. Let's do today, mañana. Which is, I mean, the point is that it's fun. It's enjoyable, right?

And it's true. Yeah, the point of the point is that it's fun. You know, it's enjoyable, right? I mean, and it's true. It's like... Yeah, the point of the line is it's not work. Yeah. You know, it's just something fun that we... Yeah, exactly. Something that we enjoy doing. You know, even if it does take some effort.

Well, it takes effort to play baseball too, right? We pass most of the effort on to Nick. We're like, find us people. That's right. David and I just want to walk into the studio on Thursday morning and find out who's there. That's right. A couple of people liked the show on Thursday morning and find out who's there. That's right. A couple people liked the show. Heather worked, liked the show this morning.

Rosalia de Rosalia Cordaro watched the show this morning. Dr. Elizabeth Irby watched the show this morning. So I appreciate all our fantastic viewers tuning in already. Wonderful. I have to say, you must be, not that I want to say it's bad luck,

but man, UVA hadn't lost and Michael and I were coming on every week and then I'm to say, you must be, not that I want to say it's bad luck, but man, UVA hadn't lost, and Maestro and I were coming on every week, and then I'm coming on with you, and they lost today. Well, they lost before I came on. I know, but they must have known you were coming on. You're blaming me for that. They must have known you were coming on. They must have known I was coming. That was not a good loss, unfortunately. Yeah, unfortunately.

It was, I mean, they didn't play badly. They didn't play badly. Well, the three-point shooting was just. Yeah, but the other team was shot 50% from three. It's hard to win when the other team shoots 50% from three. Yeah, we talk about that too. I think even college basketball is changing. I mean, there's just so much three-point shooting now.

Exactly. The whole game is switching a little bit. It's a very different game. You kind of have to live by the three or die by the three. Exactly. At this point. But yes, Peter, baseball,

UVA baseball starts Friday. Oh, okay. UVA lacrosse started last Saturday. So all the spring sports are gearing into... Good, because there's no more football. I mean, all the fun stuff is gone. I mean, baseball's coming,

but the real baseball doesn't start until... You don't watch the NBA? I am not an NBA fan. The idea of guys running back and forth just shooting, no play, no defense, nah. In the old days where you could hit the guy, trip him and stuff like that, that's what I liked. Exactly. I have to say, it is amazing.

You watch that old videos, right? And you watch that Michael Jordan. And he's not being body checked. Yeah, absolutely. All the time. They're all over him and he still makes a shot. I'd love to see today's people play. We'll see how many three.

That's right. No, it's not. Exactly, yeah. Now you can't even touch a guy. You can't even look at him. It's like, ah, foul. Different game, different game. But a lot of spring sports coming into play, which is nice.

So a lot of we'll be veering into all the fun things you can do in Charlottesville as the winter turns into the spring. Yeah. And it happens quickly in Charlottesville, so it's very nice. Exactly. It'll be here before you know it. We'll probably have one more snowfall that kills a bunch of trees, but after that,

then we will have the, after that we'll have spring at last. So I don't know about you, but I'm excited to jump into today's guests. Yes. So we're thrilled to welcome to the show this morning Jesse Belovance from Belovance Inc. Jesse, thanks for coming on this morning. Thank you for having me.

I appreciate it. No, no. We've been looking forward to it. So maybe tell us a little bit about yourself. I mean, I guess people adjude a little bit. I'm sure we'll show on the screen some of your artwork and people may recognize some of it. Maybe a little bit how you first became interested in art and in, you know, just drawing as you

do. In ink. Sure. I started off maybe 15 years ago as a contractor for the government. I did mapping work. So I did a lot of GIS and illustrations of maps and stuff like that. And over the course of the 15 years I worked, again, I said I worked at Quantico. And then I worked, when I moved here, I worked for SNL

Financial. And then I pretty much burned out doing the sit behind the desk computer work. And so I needed to find something else for me to do. And I already had a background in detail and a little bit illustration. So I really just, back in 2016, I just started the process of teaching myself how to draw. So I bought that book, Drawing on the Right Side of the Brain, I believe.

And just started from there, did pencil sketches, and then did portraits of people, you know, famous people. And then it was a little messy for me using pencils, so I transitioned to ink. And then I just started to draw things I liked. I come, both my parents were artists, and so they had, I'd look at their illustrations from the back, and it was kind of quirky.

And so I probably inherited their sense of humor and stuff. So most of my illustrations that you can divide into two categories, a lot of local Charlottesville stuff, and then kind of like whimsical in nature. So probably the one illustration that people may recognize in Charlottesville is the skyline drawing. And I usually have a giant monster attacking it. Godzilla was the first one, and then King Kong,

and then it just progressed. But I just like, I have fun drawing. I don't consider it work. Godzilla was the first one and then King Kong and then it just progressed. I have fun drawing. I don't consider it work compared to my other jobs. I understand I'm working, but it's not real hard. Now I do a lot of commission work and reach out. A lot of businesses will call up. I've done some logos for some local stores. So, yeah, that's pretty much the evolution of where I've been.

So you had some background, and then you decided to turn it into, like, a business? Right. So I had to reinvent myself after doing the mapping stuff. And I did real estate for a few years. And it's hard. It's a hard job. But I was able to do some of my artwork within that and then transitioned into just doing my own kind of style of artwork.

Did I answer my question? Well, you did. No, no, you did. When I like to do art, it does. It combines, you know, you've got your landmarks, you know, your I love, you know, you've got your, the love shorts full with the tires. You've got the Crozet pizza UVA. And then you've got the more whimsical ones, like a lot of.

And I noticed, so on your website, which is belevanceinc.com, I noticed that in addition to like some custom art, you also do like birthday cards and other types of stationery. Yeah, I'm kind of like Hallmark, but maybe more funny. I don't know. I cover all the categories that you'll find in your typical store. Birthday cards, Christmas cards. That's probably half my business is doing a lot of stationery work. I sell, and it sounds big to say I sell across the country, but I sell to a lot of different shops in different states.

And so I'm just right now I'm in that process of trying to expand out contacting as many people as I can. Just getting them familiar with my process, the wholesale process that I have. And I also eventually like this, if I can, franchise this. Yeah. But we'll see. We'll see where that goes absolutely so for the like like like the birthday cards and uh you know the christmas or easter whatever they may be do you constantly change those or is there like one set and this is what you know what goes

out i try to do something new at least two illustrations related to you know birthdays a year or christmas or holidays i always keep it fresh so the idea is that you know by the time i'm 65 i have this gigantic catalog and i don't have to work anymore if i don't want to and people just order you know just keep ordering the same stuff and then but i like drawing so exactly i'm always going to be adding stuff i feel like this is my retirement i started when i was 50 or no i I guess when I quit working the map, doing the mapping stuff, but you know,

now, you know, for the most part, I do the drawings and then I do the farmer's market every weekend. And so my lifestyle has changed a lot since working from nine to five. And it's, it's more laid back. I am very busy,

but I'm on my own schedule. It's very nice and it's fun to do my job. So it's easy to always come up with new things. And I would assume that the nice thing when you do that and you work for yourself in a way, it's that there's an inspiration. And when that inspiration comes, sit down and do it. As opposed to when you're forced to do something,

sometimes you sit there and go, what do and do it. As opposed to when you're forced to do something, you sit there and go, what do I do? What do I draw? Is that the case? Well, first inspiration was survival. I needed to. I knew I had to make money. So that was a prime motivator.

But I don't have a problem coming up with ideas. That's one thing I'm very fortunate with is my cup runneth over, basically. I cannot control the stream that comes out. I just have to make sure what does come out will sell or is funny or is good. I've thrown a lot of stuff against the wall, and probably half of it wouldn't work. But I'm lucky. I always have a lot of ideas brewing in my head. What made you decide on the ink medium to draw? Laziness. So originally I did pencil, which is hugely messy

for me. You know, you smear the paper. Ink is precise, dries quick. I can do watercolor over it. And it's just cleaner. And now I'd say half my work is I do a lot on my iPad. So I do a lot of commercial work. And so it's so easy now. Because I have a simple style, pattern ink. It's black and white, very binary.

And I just draw it, and I can create layers on the iPad, stack things, add watercolor effects to it. Oh, wow. I use a program called Procreate. It's changed pretty much how fast I can get things done, how efficient, and also provides cleaner images for final production. It's almost like digital art in a sense. I'd say probably about 80% now is digital art.

If someone wants ink, I'll do it, but it costs probably 10 times as much. I can get it done probably half the time. I can undo my mistakes, which is something you couldn't do 20 years ago. You just made a mistake and started over. Or you just had to blend it in and make it work with the rest of the image. So when you talk about something interesting, so if you do something in ink, right, and you're going to mass-produce it, right, you just do one in

ink, and that's mass-produced, I suspect, right? Well, it depends. So if I'm doing traditional ink, I have to scan it in, bring in Photoshop, remove all the dust and paper effects. But when you draw on an iPad, it's binary, one or zero. But when you draw on an iPad,

it's binary, one or zero. You have the image that you drew and then the background. So it's super clean and it's so much better for production. You can bring it into other programs like Adobe Illustrator and then convert it into vector files, which can blow up to any size you want.

The technology has changed so much from when my dad was an artist. I remember talking to him and he said, this was like 30 years ago, and he said eventually people are going to be doing all this stuff on computers and stuff like that. And I was like, no. Here I am doing exactly what he said. I would be better at doing it. It's just amazing to reach the point where you can have that precision where you can be actually drawing and it will precisely

capture. Because I remember when, you know, when the first touch screens came out and stuff, I mean, like you try to do your signature and everything's like a smudge. Right. But now there's like a level of precision that's just amazing that you can get the thin lines that you get. Much more control. Yeah. It took some getting used to. I have my stepdaughter who helps

me out with the iPad. I thought I was tech savvy. I have to ask her for things like how do I do this in procreate to do what I want to make sure the line work is always consistently the same size depending on the scale I'm drawing at. Before, I was changing pen sizes and doing all this stuff. She just goes, nope, just do this, and fixes it, and then I can do all the work. It's amazing what the next generation has access to and what they're going to produce,

provided AI doesn't just kill us all and take it over. Or do it for them. Or do it for us. Do it for us. So when you do it on the laptop, right, or wherever it is that you're doing, you literally still have to draw, right? It's not like. Just by hand. Yeah, so you still have a pen or multiple pens that you use to draw whatever it is that came into your head.

Same process, just different medium and techniques. I still have basically a paper, you set a paper size on your tablet, 8 by 10, which is standard size. Make sure you use a pen for that scale you're drawing to. You can zoom in. Now I have to wear readers. It's a lot easier to draw at the scale. You can be much more precise in your illustrations. But, yeah, I mean, it's all digital and all exportable. No, but the point is you're still the artist. It's not like you're grabbing things and then changing. You literally start from scratch just like you would with a piece of paper and ink.

You're still the artist. Everything there that goes on that computer there is you yeah absolutely I draw everything a lot of people send me photographs so I have to draw them especially if it's a house I've drawn a lot of homes and a lot of businesses

so I do work from a picture I need to see it but I draw it on the tablet from scratch but I draw it on the tablet from scratch. But I still do watercolors in traditional artwork. It's still fun to do. I really like just simple watercolors. I do these little things called micro watercolors.

They're almost like a dollhouse scale, 1 to 12, so they're about postage-sized stamps. And so I sit there. I have, like like jeweler's glasses on and I'm just painting these tiny little watercolors. But they're super fun and people seem to like them.

That's fantastic. Did you have some originals as well that you can on your website and other things? I have a few, yeah. Out of curiosity, did your parents, so your parents also had the Wimsittle style? My mom did.

I look at the way, I like drawing sheep. They're funny looking, but I look at how she drew them, and there's a mirror image, a genetic relationship between how she draws and how I draw. And same thing for my dad. My dad was very heavy-handed with his illustrations. And if you look at mine, they're stark. I mean, it's heavy line work. And so it's kind of neat to have that in me. It's part of a tradition. They never taught me anything.

So I wish, that's the problem. The thing is, I could be so much better now. If my parents had pushed me a little bit when I was a kid. You know, I was just drawing like space battles on pieces of paper, but I didn't start drawing until eight years ago. If they had started me when I was 14, I'd be, you know, where would I be now? I'd be like the Steve Jobs of stationery. But you wouldn't be here. No, I'm with the common people. of stationery. But you wouldn't be here. That won't be, no,

I'm with the common people. So, what's it been like on the entrepreneurship side of saying, okay, I'm doing this, you draw,

and then to market and grow, and grow the business? Well, originally, it was just Etsy. You know, I just posted on Etsy

and I had my own website, belleventsync.com. And then I did start doing the farmer's market. I used to go to the farmer's market here, and I never thought of it as something I could do. So I think it was two years before COVID, I started doing the city market. And then COVID came and destroyed that. Ix popped up. They had their farmer's market.

And so I did that until things kind of progressed and the city opened back up. So now I do the city market. And then my wife, she does the Ix market. So it's kind of like a team effort at this point. Oh, excellent. But for now, it's just, I'd say probably half my business, or probably a third of it comes from the farmer's market. Wow. And then the rest of it comes from online sales.

And then I do, this year especially, I've done a lot more commissions, local commissions, and it's been fun working with all the different people in our area. Absolutely, absolutely. Yeah, that's amazing just what the farmer's market can do. Because it's true, I think sometimes people think of farmer farmers as, oh, you know, buy your vegetables. But especially in Charlottesville, there are so many unique businesses that are not selling food. It was a life save. I mean, if COVID came and I got the checks from the government, but if it wasn't for the farmers' market, it would have been a lot harder.

And so I have so much appreciation for the farmers markets we have. I hope, you know, I'd love to have them expand more. I'd love to have a dedicated spot, you know, that is covered and stuff like that. But I'm really happy with what the city has done, what the ICS has done to promote art and also the local farm. I mean, it's got to be a godsend also for the farmers to have a location to sell in the city. Exactly, yeah. We've had so many people on, farmers, small businesses selling, like prepared food businesses, I mean, restaurants, taterers, that they use that.

The stones, remember that lady with jewelry and stones? Oh, yes, the jewelry store. So many artisans and craftspeople. So it's really fantastic. No, it's a great venue for small businesses and people who are getting started. And as you said, it's one of those things where on this given day, and I agree with you, I wish

there was a way to do this almost on a daily basis where there was a place here in Charlottesville that you almost could rotate. So I can't be there Monday to Friday, but this booth is available Monday to Friday. And you say, I got Monday, I got Thursday, I got Friday, whatever that is, right?

But anyway, the point is, you know, the idea to be able to just go out on those particular days and display your work and then meet people and talk to people and you get tourists coming in, right? I mean, that's really. That's the great thing about Charlottesville is we have a strong local community that supports me pretty well.

But I also set up on the downtown mall during the week, and so I do get some of that business as well. And, yeah, a lot of new people are coming in, so you always have that circulation of new shoppers and new people to work with. Absolutely. Did some props here. Katie Pearl says, Jesse is extremely talented.

Thank you for watching the show this morning. Kevin Higgin says, in his opinion, AI may be the best thing for art ever because everyone will want something original from an actual human. So when we're inundated with all this AI, some people are going to be like,

no, I want one from an actual human. Well, I was thinking about coming up with a tagline for Bella Vensing, like, made by humans. I feel like, you know how there's like standard guilds or groups that represent, there should be one for just human artists, and then you register them, and you get a stamp,

and then you can use that on your artwork. I feel like we're really going to have to start promoting the fact that we're humans doing illustrations. I mean, I play around with AI. I use the AI to come up with funny things that might work, and they all look the same. I mean, right now, I'm sure down the road it'll evolve, but I'm not looking forward to it.

I think there will always be, because I remember when NFs were all the rage like two years ago and then and because yeah i mean you have an nft that this one time only digital picture of the mona lisa and then i think just after a while people were like but why would i want a digital picture of the like there's still only one actual mona lisa that's right. The fact that I have this one time only, I can't see anything different about it.

So I think there's there, even though there are these things when they first appear, it's like, oh, that's interesting, a computer did that, and it can do it way easier. I think eventually people always kind of revert back to, yeah, but a computer did it. I kind of want something that a person did.

What stops eventually that just repeating itself? The computer doing another one and then the only difference is there's one little tiny bit here that's different than the original NFT. Yeah. To make its own style, I think people at some point, it would probably be interesting

for a while, like, oh, this AI has its own style and it's really different. But then I think eventually people will be back to, yeah, but my computer did it. Maybe it's just a fad. We'll see, but it's hard to tell. Yeah, it is. Nit Lisser will be watching.

He would love to see a man-made Tad or a sticker, but instead of made in the USA, it's made by humans. Just got to make sure the AI doesn't put that in. Made by humans. It's modern. I said, prove I'm not human. But really, I mean, it just...

The nice thing is your style is really something unique that I think people would enjoy, and you can't really find it. You don't often see birthday cards that have this style or any kind of card, and a piece of art that has that kind of mix of it's something recognizable but also funny. Well, thank you.

I try to make it interesting. And the other nice thing sometimes is that you buy something like that, you know, in a way it's unique because it was created by a particular person, right? Not that, you know, you look at them and you say, eh, you know, some of these birthday cards it's like you've seen them before or whatever.

Well, it's like if you were to send someone as a gift, pick up, you know, the Charlottesville style line with Godzilla, they know you got this from someone in Charlottesville where you live. They know you didn't go to Amazon and get it from some mass-produced Chinese thing because

nobody would mass-produce that. You know you got it from someone who's doing it in Charlottesville which I think means a lot. I agree. Jesse, it's been an absolute pleasure having you on. Thank you very much. Before we let you go, where can people get in touch, find your art?

You can find it on my website, belevanceinc, and that's ink.com. Also, I'm on Etsy, and I'm also in the downtown mall every so often. I try to come out when the weather's nice. And lastly, you can always meet me at the farmer's market. Stop by, say hi. Glad to chat. I love chatting. Exactly.

Yeah, meet Jesse at the farmer's market or your wife. Or my wife. We have a competition who sells the most. So always come to me first. There you go. Well, Jesse, thanks again for coming on. Thank you very much. It's always been a pleasure.

Wonderful. So as we make our transition here, a couple of thank yous. Ricardo Cruz Duran, thank you for watching the show this morning. Johnny Onnelas, Amita del Programa. I feel like at this point we can say Johnny and Ricardo are both Amitas del Programa.

And they'll understand what that means, too. Of course, of course. And Johnny Onnelas, a great owner of El Mariachi on Zion's Crossroads, Guadalajara on the one on, what is it called, Fontaine? Yeah, Fontaine, yeah. That one there. You can't, by Fry Spring area. Fry Spring, that's the word I was looking for. Yeah, you can't miss it.

You can't miss it. So he's a great entrepreneur here in the community. So I appreciate them both joining us this morning and watching. And speaking of great people that we love in our community, Who? We're glad to welcome Matt. I know. I try, and then

he messes it up. What can I say? That's why you don't want me here for these things. You just don't want me. Michael would have let me. Michael, he's always nice when I make my smooth transitions. He's always nice when I make my smooth transitions. He's always like, oh, nice transition there. I'll say that when you're finished. Okay, there we go.

So we're excited to welcome to the show Matthias Hjelm for our monthly meetup with Matthias. Nice transition. Thank you, David. Matthias, thanks for coming on this morning. Thanks for this nice introduction. See? Even Matthias liked it. Even Matthias liked it.

So, I mean, it's been a little bit a while since Xavier has been on. I know last time you were here with Michael and myself. We had just come out of the Christmas season. How has January been for you? What's been new? You mean my personal life? I know that your personal life? Either way, I know that you're... Personal life might be more important, right?

Because, I mean, that's something that happened to you is much more important than anything else in the world, my suspicion. Well, it's much more subjective. That's true. No, life's been good. I think I mentioned this last time when I was here. We had our first baby, eight weeks old today.

Wow. So today is her birthday? She was born on the 15th? No, it was actually on the 21st of December. And so, yeah, almost two months old. And it's been a very exciting journey so far. Is she sleeping a little more? Yeah, every night is a little bit better.

Four or five hours. Actually, this night was particularly good. No wonder you look so restful today. I have heard that this is the second time I hear this today. That I look so rested and I like hearing that because I didn't feel that way for a long time. Absolutely not, Ali. No, thanks for asking.

And yeah, work is going well as well. We had a pretty strong start, 2024, in real estate. And we were all looking with curiosity towards this this new year. We had a, let's call it a mixed experience in 2023 with the high interest rates and that has an impact on the housing market and some of the problems or issues or challenges they remain. We still face issues here on a regional level as well but I think there's a lot of optimism. There's a momentum right now. We have inventory picking up and

buyers are coming out of their caves. And that obviously has to do with headlines that we hear about in the news all day. So there is reason to be optimistic that we will see first and second quarter of this year at least will be strong. So I guess when we say last year was bad, this year will be good, you know, those are strong words. What we are really wanting to say is it's getting more balanced. And I think you, working in the financial world,

you can confirm that we are heading towards maybe normalizing the situation, and that will have an impact on us working in real estate as well. I mean, certainly from a – No, I don't agree with that at all. Normalizing? What do you mean normalizing? Well, it depends on the media.

I guess rate-wise probably. In other words, I think we would say – Well, so I was going to ask – I was going to ask that question because, I mean, obviously we hit the tip of rates probably around, you know, kind of early December. They started to come down. We've literally in the last two weeks given it all back. So we are back up to where we were when, you know, mortgages were 7.5%, 8%. So obviously that's going to have an impact, right? The fact that the inflation number came out and was not as good as people expected,

that's not going to help long-term bonds, right, and 10-year bonds, which is where the mortgage rates come in. But I really had a question more on – because, I mean, that's going to impact, without any doubt. I mean, the higher the rate, the harder it is for people to, I think, think about buying a house. May I chime in real quick before you ask your question? What do you think will the Fed do in March? You said that we lost the drop that we just saw and they raised it again. What's your near future prediction?

So I mean, the market is what kind of raised it. It wasn't the Fed hasn't done anything. It's the comment by the Fed. I mean, the Fed basically said two things, and two things have happened since then, which may change all this, right? But I think Powell came in and said, he said, basically, you know, he'd like to just see what happens, right? If you remember well, at the beginning of the year, it looked like the economy was still doing well. So they kind of pulled back and said, there's absolutely no reason for us to lower rates if the economy is doing well. We now had inflation numbers come higher than expected, therefore, why are we going to lower rates if inflation is higher, right? Because the reason it

raised was to make sure inflation came down. However, today's number, which was the retail sales, was down 0.8. That's a huge drop from what even people expected. So all of a sudden, they're sitting there. You always expect a December to January drop, but not twice as much. Yeah, but I mean, I think that most people expect it down 0.2, right? It's down 0.8, which is much larger than expected. And the issue in which we talked about this in December is you look at the

credit card debt and has just ballooned. I mean, it continues to grow. At what point does people say, I can no longer borrow to buy whatever I want to buy? So if retail sales or the consumer begins to draw back, then the Federal Reserve does have the opportunity to lower rates. So I don't think they'll do it in the first six months. I really don't at this point. Before that, I thought they might do something in March. But I think at this point, he's probably going to wait until June. I mean, that's my feeling.

I might be wrong. I mean, I never guessed that right anyway. So just let me put that out there. But that's my perspective you know um but the interesting thing is you have that confluence because i think you have those two things is obviously the national you have the national picture right which high interest rates but the the weird thing is the regional picture for charlottesville though there seems to be i've seen is still this continued whether it's want or need to to look into purchasing a house

because I still have people we still have people saying despite the interest rate coming and saying is this a good time to look into it because I think just regionally it's it's a the retail I mean the real estate market is a different scenario. But you know, you bring up an interesting point. Sensational headlines in the news are one thing, right? But then we also have the personal situation.

Everyone's situation is different. Life events happen, which will dictate someone selling their home or buying the home even though the circumstances might not be ideal leads me to the question what is ideal really right so we can talk about numbers in the market all day long at the end of the day comes down to regional differences we always talk

about how central Virginia or Charlesville area is a strong market in many regards, right? And how does it compare to the national standard? Sure, that might be interesting when we are looking at numbers and making predictions. So thanks for sharing your insight there. But I think in our regional market, we can, and we just spoke about this in our team yesterday, we do sense that there is more activity right now, at least compared to last year. And last year's situation was different. Granted, we

were looking at interest rates. I'm sorry to bring up the rates again, but that... No, of course, that's the big... Exactly. Do you think it may be a scenario whereby, in other words, last year, the interest rates had come up so much, so people are like, oh, no, hold back.

And now maybe the normalization isn't that the economic situation is normalized, but rather people have normalized that maybe this interest rate is here to stay so i might have put off making my move last year but it is what it is i have to just do it now i mean it's also as matthias says i mean obviously there are circumstances why people have to move whatever but from a purchase point of view i mean we talk about this all the time too right you sit there and you're going all right so I'm going to hold back because maybe

rates will drop at the end of six months or nine months. But then you say, well, what if houses are up 5%, 6%? In other words, an interest rate, we have talked about this before, not that it's cheap, but interest rate can be refinanced somewhere down the line if things go my way. A house price cannot be refinanced.

You buy it today at an expensive price, it can no longer be, you know, you can't rebuy it for a lower price. So it is what it is. So if you need a house and you're looking at the market, and, Matthias, sometimes it's just supply and demand. It's just if there's still two buyers for every house, there's a battle, right? People are willing to outbid.

Now, you mentioned, Matthias, you mentioned inventory. Is this inventory coming from, again, people moving? In some cases, parents passing away and the child has to, or is it they're building more and therefore the inventory is coming that way? I think it's a little bit of both. We do have developers building rapidly rapidly and that is good news. If you look at the market reports in our area, you see a lot of new construction coming up. honest, it is still a problem. It is still a seller's market on a national level. I think we have a supply of a little bit over three months. A balanced market would be more like five or six months. So we are nowhere close to

it being a balanced market, to be very clear about that. But the hope is that inventory improves slowly, especially in our area here, for the factors that you mentioned. Sure, sellers are more inclined to lose their locked-in rate and trade their home. So that will lead to more activity and, as a result, to a little bit more inventory on the market as well. As you mentioned, last year, Acela was less inclined, was more willing to wait to see what happens on the market. And now it's clear that, A, rates are slowly dropping, and, B, that it will not significantly drop. So why wait any longer? and B, that it will not significantly drop.

So why wait any longer? As you said, Xavier, the home prices are still rising. Compared to last year, it's fair to say that they are not rising as rapidly, but there's still growth. And so how do you compete with that? Sometimes you just have to pull the trigger if the circumstance is warranted. Would you say it's still the case that, in other words, if you're representing a buyer,

there is typically someone else competing for the same home? In other words, you're still dealing with multiple people offering on the same home? Yeah, it's not just one other party. It's seven or eight fighting for it, depending on the price range you're looking at. But looking at Charlottesville, at the median home price in the 400s,

yes, you have multiple offer situations. You get that in January, and this will just increase as we're heading towards the spring market. Absolutely. What do you see as when, like how does it begin to change from winter to spring? Do you start to see, you know, just more and more homes coming on the market? Or do people, do the buyers start looking first and be like, okay, where is everything?

I'm always curious where you begin to see the change, the transition happen from winter to spring, or if it might be different this year because we've had such a busier than usual January. Again, the answer, I think, is it's mixed. So December is typically a slow month in that regard because people focus on other things, on family and holidays. And then the new year starts, and then that psychology kicks in,

changes, the weather is changing, there's euphoria in the air, people want a new start, and all that has an impact and partially defines the spring market. And we are not in the spring, but we are all talking about the spring market starting already. But in reality, it will probably be in full swing in March, April. Is this different than the past years? Again, I find it difficult to make those comparisons because we had 2020, 2021,

2022 in the pandemic. All those historic data didn't really apply. Does it apply this year? Well, we will see. Compared to last year, things are slightly different. We are more optimistic in that regard. So let me ask you a question as a realtor. So let's assume that I had a house and I wanted to sell that house, right? And it's January, February, right?

And I come to you and I say, okay, I mean, there's no inventory. Tell me there's no inventory. Am I better off putting my house for sale now even though it's not the spring because there's no inventory or wait until spring because that's when the buyers come out? What would your ‑‑ you know, I know you might say there's differences, you know, but out of curiosity, what would your thought process be there? Put you in the spot, that's all. I'm smiling because the default answer always is, it depends.

So why bother asking a question if the answer is, it depends. Interesting question, though, because sometimes I find myself wondering, well, if I only need one buyer for my house, why does it matter whether I list in January or in June? But here's why it depends. What is your goal? Do you have to relocate? Do you have to leave the area because of life events? Are you in a hurry?

Or are you just testing the waters? Are you interested in exploring what you could get for your home? What terms can you dictate to the buyer? All those are questions. And again, if you're just interested in the equity that you gained or maybe buying a bigger house,

then you're probably better off waiting for a situation where you will have increased buyer activity. And so if you have two, three, or even more people interested in your home, chances are that you can not dictate, but the outcome for yourself will be better as opposed to just having one buyer. Now, this is an observation. Whether that's good or bad depends, again, on the situation. But it's always an advantage to not be in a hurry as a seller and as a buyer as well.

That's interesting. I was just curious, again, from an inventory point of view, you come in and say, there's no inventory. I'm told there's no inventory. So should I sell now? But I guess the expected increase in buyers between now and spring might be greater than the expected increase in inventory between now and spring.

That's true. That's what happens. Especially I think for Charlottesville because I know for instance that a lot of UVA people between the hospital and others get matched or hired in that March window. So that's when you get that influx of people who suddenly now know, oh, wait, I now know that I need to.

Because think about it, you're not going to be looking like just thinking of medical residents, right? If you're a medical resident and you've selected three possible schools to go to, three possible hospitals, right? You're not going to go and buy a house in Charlottesville hoping that UVA matches with you in January and your match date is not until March, right? You're going to wait until you have a firm commitment and then suddenly you're going to enter the market.

All these people are going to enter in, and I can't imagine that there's that same um i don't know i can't imagine there's that same sense of urgency from the seller side that march comes and all of a sudden all these sellers are like okay i need i really need to put my house for sale now and because it's march so you might have a little bit of a mismatch where the number of buyers that enter is conceivably greater than the number of new homes that would enter. And I really like the comparison, the example that you brought up, the UVA people. Let's take a physician moving here to work at UVA. Now, back to your question about when do I list my home? Again, if you have a home in a neighborhood close to UVA, for example, in a price range and other specifications that might be interesting to a physician moving to Charlottesville,

and you know that UVA is hiring not in January, but it will be later in the second quarter of the year, for example, and oftentimes those physicians qualify for a physician loan. And so you can only get that loan within three months of actually starting your job at UVA. And this is just specific to this example, but I think it's a good example because that means to you as a home seller, if you're interested in attracting those kind of people, physicians working at UVA, you might be better off waiting for that. But that, again, requires you knowing about those tendencies, trends happening in the area. So that might be a good point for me to point out.

Talk to your realtor that's what it is comes down to because you can't the individual person right if I own a home in charge but I can't possibly know the trends going on in this neighborhood versus that neighborhood or this proximity to the medical center versus this proximity to the medical center it It's impossible to keep track of all these things. It would be like an individual person who's sitting there saying, well, I keep track of what clean energy stocks are doing every day, and I keep track of this sector and that sector, so I know when to move between one and the other.

No, if you have a different job and that's not your job, you wouldn't keep track of those things. So it's why you talk to a professional and say okay what what are you seeing that i need to think about when making the decision to list my home again assuming it's not that you need to in other words if you need to move somewhere what then it's different right? Your circumstances have dictated your decision. But if you have options, you kind of need that expertise to say, well, how do I analyze these options that I have?

Right. It's typically not a decision that you make overnight. No. Talk to your realtor. Plan. Compare your options. When is the best time? And again, as I said already, it's always an advantage to not be in a rush.

Are there things that your industry does, I guess, in this time period, typically to prepare for what you may expect in spring and summer? What is the typical, I don't want to call it off-season, because there really isn't an off-season. You know, it's not like you cease to be busy in December. But in other words, what are typical things that you begin to look for? Say, these are things that I sort of store away and think about so that when I may have more buyers approaching me in March, I have a better grasp of this way.

I can prepare them better? Well, we live in an area with four seasons, so you want to consider how your home looks, the curb appeal. As we are approaching spring, you might be interested in displaying some greenery or working on your yard before listing the home. Again, it depends on your situation, but if you can wait and you are deciding between March and April, and if you or you think the value of the property is determined,

among other things, by how your yard looks, your front yard. And you already know from your realtor that it's recommended to have a professional photographer take photographs for your listing than maybe work on the curb appeal. Again, that requires just a conversation and planning those things. Because the better prepared you are, the more you can likely get for your home at better terms. Yeah, I hadn't thought of that. And that's the other thing. I mean, so I think a good realtor, typically when you, you know, discuss it, you know, what you plan to do, you know, I can, you know, walk in through your house sometimes, walk around your house and kind of point out things, you know, you need to kind of fix that or you need to improve there. And, you know, inside the house sometimes people have a lot of clutter and it's like, you know, you want to get rid of that clutter.

It's nice to be homey because people visualize easier when there's furniture in the house when there isn't. And I talked about this all the time because they see a room, it looks small, and then you see it's got a sofa, it's got chairs, it's got TV, and it's like, wow, this is a big room, right? But they see things that you don't see, and so they're very helpful in being able then to walk with you through your house and say this is what you need to do to really improve the curb appeal outside and inside and inside staging a home the home is empty already sometimes it makes sense to stage not to make it appear nicer but you want to make sure people walking through the home or looking at it online can envision themselves living there.

Exactly. So having a couch and a table helps them envision how to use that space. Getting ready to list your home also depends on the opinion of the professional. I have this example of a person wanting to sell their property, and they told me, well, we have to wait a few months because we have to fix A, B, C, and D. It's a rather old property but in an excellent location. And so we took this opportunity to sit down and talk about the best plan moving forward and

as a result it was not the best solution to spend money and time and work into fixing this property because likely someone will actually make modifications to this home. So why not let the best idea to spend a lot of money and work into fixing something that the next person owning it might change it anyway it's true sometimes I hear that

I see people who are like I'm going to sell my home so I'm going to renovate my kitchen so they renovate the kitchen and you don't know somebody comes in and says I don't like the way this kitchen looks. I don't like the style.

Exactly. So it's like you just spend $20,000, but whoever's buying is like, eh, that's not for me. But you would be supporting the local economy, though. Well, the person buying it was going to support it anyway because they're going to sit there and go, it's an old kitchen, so okay, the price is a little,

you know, the price I'm getting is reflective the fact that i need to put a new kitchen but now i can put the kitchen that i want i suppose somebody else puts a kitchen they want i mean i guess you have both and there's people who don't want to go probably wouldn't it depend somewhat also do you have to consider that the how much of the value of the property is the value of the house built on it versus the value of the land. In other words, if the land is extremely valuable and you sit out, you know, you say this most of what this land is of this property is worth is because it's in a very good spot such that no one really cares what house is on it. They may even just tear down the house and put their own house. That would change your calculation versus, okay the location

is okay but the house is beautiful. In which case how the house looks is a little more relevant because no one would buy this merely to tear it down. Exactly. That would be part of the strategy. And you have to develop a strategy by talking about it with getting one opinion, maybe even two opinions and what you say actually applies. And the example I was just talking about, in that case the location was so good and the house was not as nice that it

made sense to look at the value of the property based on the location and the land and the value it brings to the table as opposed to the house itself. So every situation is different. And you see it sometimes when I look

to some of the things I keep tracking on the Realtrap and look at things and so forth, you'll see a house. And it looks kind of broken down, kind of old. And the property isn't even that big. And it's worth – no, actually, no, the house is not even that big. The house is like 1,500 square feet or something, right, and small. And then you're like, how on earth is this thing selling for like seven hundred thousand dollars and then you look and it says 10 acres and you're like all of this

value is and you look where it is and all of this value is the land in other words no one cares what the house is on it because they're probably just going to tear down the house and start over. What they want is the 10 acres. And so it really depends where you are and what your land looks like sometimes. That will affect how you decide how important the actual building on it is. And sometimes it's hard to tell a property owner

that the value not lies in the home, but actually the land. Oftentimes people are emotionally attached, and maybe they have spent a lot of time and work and their own money into that building just to have me come and tell that person that it's not as attractive or not as valuable as you might think how you compare emotional with objective value there so that's that's difficult well another important role you play because i think and it's a behavioral thing in behavioral economics right that people always the individual who owns something, always has a tendency to overvalue that which they own and undervalue that which they don't own. This happens even with stocks.

In other words, if people own Costco, they're going to be like, oh, Costco is a really great company. It should be worth even more than it is. And if you don't own Costco and you're thinking about it, ah, the price should come down. It's not that great that's too expensive take that and multiply that by 10 because now it's your home you're

always going to have a tendency to be like oh no my home should be worth yeah everybody's gonna love this home everybody's gonna love this home right and but the problem is if you try to achieve that you may end up overpricing your home, over the list price. And then you sit there and, oh, nobody's offering. What did I do wrong? So it does take, as hard as it is, right, it does take that, what do they call it? They call it the arm's length person. In other words, someone who's on your side, which you are, right, but someone who's one

step removed and doesn't actually own the property to say, this is what, in other words, I'm still here to help you sell this property, right? But I have a better idea, a more objective view of where its value lies. Right. I remember the lady telling me that she raised all her children in that home

and that she spent five days every week working in the yard and her husband painting. The perception of value was a million dollars, but it was not the reality. And so bringing objection to the table is important there.

Probably not the easiest thing to do. That's got to be tough. Yeah, that's got to be tough. Sometimes it's, yeah, the truth can hurt. And again, looking at numbers, it's not the only thing we do. There are several factors that we take into consideration, and again, it's just part of strategizing. Exactly, exactly.

A couple of thank yous as we get close to wrap up time Anna Yohn that's probably that's my sister Anna Yohn is watching Bill McChesney watching Mark Hunt watching

Brenna Rice like in the show this morning is Anna, is she watching from is she here so my sister was just here last week visiting but she lives in Arizona like in the show this morning. Is Anna, is she watching from, is she here? So my sister was just here last week visiting, but she lives in Arizona. Oh, so we've got all the way from Arizona joining us. No, we're going to be like,

is she watching from the Ritz? That would be impressive. So watching from Arizona, thanks for tuning in. We appreciate it. So Matthias, it's been – I always learn so much. Absolutely. That's what's nice, just conversing. It's as much about the process as the predictions or the end result because it's just – it's to know what are important things to think about and to know and to – and almost what you should be asking. I think one of the great benefits of people watching this is to know what should you be actually asking your realtor?

Because it's kind of getting into your mind and knowing, okay, this is important to know. This is important to ask or to, you know, if someone I know isn't asking me these questions, are they doing the right job for me? Are they thinking it through? So it's just important to, I think, to reflect on those things

and to have these conversations. You know, we were talking earlier, actually not me, but Jesse, who was here before me, he was talking about the advantage of the personal approach as opposed to everything being online. And I think he mentioned AI

and how it's a very different approach. And I'm always thankful for opportunities like this one here where we can actually, in a conversational style, talk about the pros and cons of a topic. And also it gives me the opportunity to let people know I'm a real person. This is not an online platform where you sign up and they tell you to list your home tomorrow at that price.

No, it's a process with real people, just like you do it in your business. And I want to thank you guys, actually, for having this platform here that allows local small businesses to come and talk about their business. Again, Jesse, who was here earlier, he said something that I liked. He pointed out that we have this strong community here, and I think sitting here reminds me of that. So again, thanks for having me on a monthly basis.

It's a pleasure. It's always nice to be here. We always look forward to it, and it's a joy. Like you said, and like Jesse said, it is a great community that appreciates small business, so we just love being part of that and helping to keep that going. And we're always amazed how many small businesses are here in Charlottesville, and to be able to help them is fantastic. Absolutely.

Yeah. So thank you once again. Thank you, yes. Thank you, and see you next time. See you next time. Absolutely. Yeah. So thank you once again. Thank you. Yes. Thank you. And see you next time. See you next time. Absolutely. See you next time. Thank you to Clay Smith watching the show this morning.

Appreciate it. We had some great viewers watching this morning and tuning in from even the bar. All over. All over. So we definitely appreciate everyone who tuned in. We've got next week another local small business. We're going to have on Steve Harvey from First Free Coffee Bar. It's going to be coming on.

Free coffee? I don't know. We're going to find out what it means. I don't think you can't all be free coffee. No, I'm just kidding. I know you are. The first coffee is free. The second one you've got to pay for. There you are. As opposed to the opposite, right? So definitely

appreciate it. Appreciate being on here with you. There you go. As opposed to the opposite, right? So definitely appreciate it. And appreciate being on here with you. Always a pleasure. Always a pleasure being here. Always fun to be here. Thank you, Judah. Did you think he really meant that? He giggled when you said that.

I'm really thinking now. Wait a minute. No, I love being on with you and with Michael. Neither of you supplants the other in my heart. Thank you. I have enough love in my heart'm with you and with Michael. Neither of you supplants the other in my heart. Thank you. I have enough love in my heart for both you and for Michael. Nick, you and me. For you and Michael, there's more than enough.

And, of course, plenty of love in my heart for Judah behind the camera. Oh, that's for sure. Making us all look good. Always doing great work on the fly, getting pictures up to show people the art and so forth. So really appreciate all that he does. Love being here on the Isle of Siebel Network set. Of course, love our great partners, Castle Hill Cider,

Matias Yon Realty, Tratic Series Insurance, Forward Adelante. Thanks to Emergent Financial Services for presenting. Thank you all for joining us. We always appreciate it. We look forward to seeing you next week. I don't know if it'll be you and myself,

but we'll find out. Right now, I think so. Right now, it looks like it will be Xavier and myself, so we look forward to seeing you next week. But until that time, as we like to close it out, hasta mañana. Thank you. Grazie.