The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Matthias John Joined Alex Urpí & Xavier Urpí On “Today y Mañana” On The I Love CVille Network!

Episode Date: August 29, 2024

Matthias John of Matthias John Realty joined Alex Urpí & Xavier Urpí On “Today y Mañana!” “Today y Mañana” airs every Thursday at 10:15 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Today y Mañana” is presented by Emergent Financial Services, LLC, Craddock Insurance Services Inc and Matthias John Realty, with Forward Adelante.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Today y Mañana. I'm Alex. This is Xavier. We're very excited to have you joining us on a beautiful, if hot, morning. Listen, I just want to say something. I mean, Judah cut us off when we discussed the Capricorn Ledge. I think we should just continue on this conversation. I don't think that was fair. I'm going to talk about iced coffee all day.

But we're human. We're humans. That's what happens. You talk about coffee, sugar, and rum. So, I mean, it's common conversations. I was going to let you sometimes. But it's wonderful to have everyone here this morning joining us. We're very excited for today's show.

It's going to be our monthly meetup with Matthias. It's going to be some real estate. It's going to be some finance. It's going to be our monthly meetup with Matthias. It's going to be some real estate. It's going to be some finance. It's going to be some Charlottesville, some fall, beautiful fall weather. There's always a great time. There's always laughter, too, somewhere. There's always laughter and a great time. So we are excited for that.

Of course, we didn't get to it, but Xavier would recommend that you do a couple things. You like and share, and if you want, you can even subscribe. Exactly. I think that's the nicest introduction I've ever received here on the show. What other way can we do it? The flowery today. Oh, Lila, it's worthy. You are worthy of the flowery.

So, of course, always big thanks to Judah behind the camera, the Isle of Seville Network Set, Merged Financial Services, and our awesome partners, Mattia Sion, Credit Serious Insurance Insurance Forward Adelante and thank you our fantastic viewer already I see people tuning in Jerry Miller watching the show this morning it's always fun when we hear the live audience

he's our live audience every once in a while you hear him in the background so who's that? you know, Nidlas Erpi tuning in this morning Dr. Elizabeth Erpi wishing a good morning to her favorite podcast host. I wonder who that might be. And so,

and be sure to send us any questions, comments. We'll, we'll read them out loud. And so I, well, I always love jumping right in, especially when we're lucky enough to have Matias.

Oh, absolutely. Yes. Yes. So we're happy to welcome this morning are the wonderfulias John from Matthias John Realty. Thanks for joining us this morning. I'm excited to be back. Thanks for having me.

It's great to have you back. So what's new? I mean, it's been a little bit since I know maybe even since Xavier's been on with you. What's new in the Matthias family household? What's new for the summer? Well, let's see. We're wrapping up the summer. Is it safe to say that we are entering into the fall?

Yeah, yeah. End of August. So I guess this is a summer wrap up, right? Things are good. Our baby is growing fast and she is cuter every day. Yep. growing fast and she is cuter every day I feel like my family and I we are different in how we spent the summer

because we were here the entire time except back in June but July, August we were here and everyone I know has left for at least once and I think you guys you just got back from a vacation as well and that pretty much sums up my experience everyone was traveling um a lot of people that I work with and in real estate have been traveling and it also is indicative of of

how the market was right it has It always slows down in the summer. I like to think because it's too hot, but the reality is school children are off. This is the time to go on vacation, and many people did that. And now everyone's coming back to Charlottesville. Was it just last week that UVA started back again? Yes, it was. And then this Wednesday Albemarle School started. So, safe to say the summer is slowly over. Yeah, back to normal.

There is a certain, it's happened to us a couple times when we've been in Charlottesville for the summer, and you don't go off. There is kind of this sense of quiet that everything goes to a crawl and driving down University Avenue sometimes you'd be like, wow, there's just, there's no one on University Avenue. How does this happen? Because you normally used to, it doesn't take 20 minutes. You're in 10 minutes here downtown. It's just, it's a different relaxed feel and it probably gives you a feeling of what the town might have been like before the

university was as large as it is now. My parents came to visit from Germany back in, I think it was in April and they always liked to walk the grounds. They liked the architecture and obviously there's a lot of history to observe and learn about. And so

every time they visit, they are there several days of their stay, walking the grounds. And they ask me, why do you never come with us? Don't you like the architecture at UVA? And I told them what people told me when I moved here 10 years ago. It says, unless students are on vacation, you don't go to

the campus. You don't go to the corner because it's kind of the student thing. You don't mingle. And I'm not sure if I know the exact reason for that. There are probably a number of factors. But I feel like most residents kind of stick to that tradition. Well, I just think it's busy, right? So in other words, the idea of now you are driving towards where the university is, more

traffic, difficult to find parking. You get out. If you want to go have coffee or someplace, it's packed with students. And I mean, listen, there's pros and cons. I mean, yeah, the summer, they're gone. It's less traffic. But I always get the feeling that when students come back, the energy in Charlottesville just increases, you know, algorithmically.

I mean, it's just tremendously so. But also the frustration in traffic, right? I was trying not to say that. I'm here for the uncomfortable. It's inevitable, right? I feel like even being here, after the summer ends and you start going maybe to areas

you didn't go to for a little bit, you're like, oh, wow, they changed that. That changed. How did I miss that happen? You go back to UVA, there's two new buildings. I'm like, wow. That's true.

When I left, there was a crane last summer, and, there's two new buildings that I'm like, wow. When I left, there was a crane last summer, and now there's a whole building there. You're on Hydraulic Road, and you're like, oh, they built a roundabout. When did that happen? You feel like you lose track of what's happening just in the slow, lazy summer that happens. Speaking of which, isn't that

positive news? Which one? The hydraulic road traffic pattern that changed. The roundabout. Everyone, no matter where you looked on social media, everyone was predicting just negative news and accidents left and right.

And so far, it's been actually relieving the traffic. At least that's my experience. I may have a different opinion on that one. Aha. So let's make this... But you've experienced traffic. But I'm not sure we want to talk about traffic on this show.

Well, let's talk about traffic the entire episode. Why do you think it's not good? So I guess my feeling is, I mean, I've experienced roundabouts, you know, here, but mostly in Europe, right? And they're very, very useful. Now, Europeans are very familiar with roundabouts here, but mostly in Europe, right? And they're very, very useful. Now, Europeans are very familiar with roundabouts. I mean, and we're talking about major traffic, where the roundabouts are huge. The way they did this one, I mean, if you're coming off the 250,

going west on the 250, right, coming west on the 250 and going off hydraulic, you are now down to one lane. There used to be two lanes. That traffic is backing up on the 250 enormously because now you have one lane that only makes a right on the first right. Then there's another one lane that makes the next right only. And then there's the next right that goes into where Whole Foods is. And that one laner really almost just goes straight.

So my feeling is it almost, that lane never really gets into the roundabout. It just kind of meanders straight through. People that have to get into that roundabout, if that traffic just keeps flowing, it's a real tough job in my opinion. I think my suspicion is that is an accident reduction technique rather than a traffic reduction technique. I think that's the actual reason. What did it do? I'm not sure it did anything. No, what used to happen, where I would see

the accidents all the time, is because there were two lanes. When people would make a left at that light to go up towards Whole Foods, onto Hydraulic, they have the right-of-way on both lanes. How many times would you find the people that were that had blown past the yield sign and they would just hit each other because

i would always see accidents on the at the left turn and the yield and now i think what's happening is they're saying if you were making a right you have no choice but to yield because you you you won't be in that lane you have to get into the left lane. So yeah, you've got more traffic, but I don't think that was done to relieve traffic because I'm not sure you can without making three lanes. If it was done to relieve traffic, I don't think it did this job. I think that part was done to reduce accidents. I guess my feeling is that's not a genuine roundabout. That's a change in traffic pattern at hydraulic. Now I understand why you were hesitant to talk about traffic

you're not passionate about it go down the rabbit hole quickly there but I mean I have seen I think that's going to become more and more the future because I know they want to do that out by Crozet and the Midwest has a lot of states in the Midwest have now gone completely roundabout

because apparently it's much more helpful in many situations over a traffic light. So I think if you're in charge, you had best get used to it because I think you're going to see more of that. So the one by, you know, like, what's the name of that road that kind of goes to where Seville Aquatics is and then you make a right to Lowe's. Yeah, there's a roundabout.

Right. I'm saying that one down there by what came on it, that's a genuinely good roundabout, right? Because that's a place where, yeah, there used to be either stop signs or traffic lights, and it's like, what's the point? On Berkman Drive. Yeah, you're right. That's right.

There's a few of those on there, which I think are very, very useful, because you never literally have to, you slow down, but you don't have to stop because there's just not enough traffic there to cause you to stop. Stop, you know, whatever. Stop sign. I was going to say light, but it's a sign, yeah. Out of curiosity, do you ever have people that come to you and are like, Matthias, I don't want to be near Charlottesville because of traffic? I mean, do people have a kind of distorted view? I mean, we come from new york so this traffic is not a huge deal for us

but like you know perspective really matters here um if you go to charlesville reddit you will get the impression that charlesville traffic is the worst in the country but if you have ever been in Texas on a 12-lane highway or just traveling up to Northern Virginia, D.C., I think Charlottesville is pretty comfortable and organized compared. Absolutely. So again, perspective.

I've never had a client complain about traffic in Charlottesville compared to where they're from. I don't think so. But of course, if you're used to traffic in Charlottesville compared to where they're from? I don't think so. But of course, if you're used to traffic in Scottsville, then Charlottesville seems like the big congested city. Well, it also depends on which side of Charlottesville you want to live.

We'll have some clients that basically if they're up 29, they're like, yeah, I'm only coming to Charlottesville. If they're up in Green or north there, they're like, oh yeah, I'm only coming to Charlottesville. If they're up in Green or north there, they're like, oh, yeah, I'm only coming to Charlottesville, you know, once a week because I don't want to deal with that. Right? Because they're used to. Yeah, I think it's in the morning.

Yeah, it's in the morning. They don't want to deal with it. Yeah, it's, listen, like Matias says, everything is relative because perspective. I mean, obviously, since we're from New York, I mean, we recognize that you can be in a block, meaning, you know, one street to another street and be there 20 minutes, right? It's like that's traffic because you haven't even moved. And you say, uh-oh, right here, that really doesn't happen. I mean, there's some traffic, but you get to places pretty quickly. Exactly.

Even in the fall, people start coming back. And we've talked about this before. I mean, you know, I forget who I was talking to when we went on vacation. We met some people, and I said, the beautiful thing about Charlottesville is that you have a city. Obviously, the college, you know, has a big impact on our quality of life, whether you think it's positive or negative, that's your choice. But I think from a certain respect, it's positive because, like I said, you have

sports, you have concerts, you have a lot of things going on here that creates, you have restaurants, you have the downtown. Within 10 minutes, you're in the country. You drive out west, you're literally in the country. I mean, there's trees, mountains everywhere, right? And the scenery is beautiful. So you live in a place where there's things for you to do, and yeah, maybe a little congested, but 10 minutes, 15 minutes away. And people in big cities like New York, for example, you've got to

drive two hours in traffic to get out of there and see what we see in 10 minutes away. So it's a beautiful place to live for that reason. And, you know, that reminds me of that endless discussion about affordability. In general in the U.S., big problem, of course. We all know the headlines, but Charlottesville in particular is considered to be a relatively expensive place to live, right, and purchase a home, et cetera. But then wouldn't that also mean that that steady stream of people moving here should subside at some point? The reality is that is not the case. People voluntarily, not necessarily job related, decide to move here because it's a wonderful area to live and raise a family or

to retire, whatever the motivation is. And so the home prices keep going up and yet people decide to move here because of what they feel attracted to in the area. And so that shows me that it's not always about affordability. Some people also prioritize. Maybe they sacrifice certain things in order to be able to live in Charlottesville or in the surrounding area. And I'm the first to acknowledge, yes, affordability is a big problem, especially here in Virginia's second most expensive area.

However, there is a reason. And it's not all UVA. It's also the natural beauty of the area, just like you said. It's location. You're always going to have those challenges in a beautiful place where people are willing to say, I'm willing to pay more to get a smaller house because I want to be close to mountains. It's the reason why the coast,

why is the coast always, you look at the map of the U.S., almost everyone lives on the coast and it's the most expensive place to live and you could sit there and say well why don't you just go live smack in the middle of Nebraska it's cheap and people are like well I don't want to have a

7,000 I would rather have a less affordable house on the coast than have a 7,000 square foot mansion in the middle of Nebraska because it's just a preference of where people choose to live.

In an ideal world, you would get all the things you aspire. The square footage that you need and the extra space in the basement in the desired area of your choice. The reality is a lot of people sacrifice one or two of those things in order to make it

work here. And that shows me that the appeal is stronger for some people than the reality of prices. And now, this conversation we are having is obviously on a very high and comfortable level. There are also those that move here because the ideal job is waiting here for them, or whatever the motivation is. And for many people, Charlottesville, living in Charlottesville, is simply not affordable,

and that's why we have so many areas with new developments within this 30-minute driving distance, right? I mean, all those reasons are related. Exactly. They're connected. Well, you know, it's funny, and we all know this. You know, whenever, I mean, obviously, I see tons of research come through our desk on many different topics, including real estate.

And I always look at it, and I, in a way, sometimes I just poo-poo it, because what you have to realize, and you know this as well as everybody even here, real estate is local. The idea that, you know, they give you national standards, you know, real estate this, real estate that, and it's like, that's just, that's not how it works. I mean, you can see, you know, there's a real estate slowdown, and you sit there and you go, yeah, but I live in Charlottesville, and Charlottesville is still hot, right, or Charlottesville is still growing. So real estate is really so localized that you have to figure out what's happening in your area. right? The appeal of this area continues to be, you know, very strong. And therefore, if that's the case, and the demand continues to be larger than the supply, then prices is just,

you know, they're going to go up or, you know, I mean, they're just not going to go down, let's put it this way. Well, and we were kind of talking before the show, which we wanted, I wanted to touch on with you, Matias, is that there are also, it depends a lot on the time frame in which you're looking at something. And we could sit here and look at the fall in which you've got now short-term people, maybe buyers looking at making short-term decisions, saying, do I wait a little? Where are interest rates going? But then there's fall 2024 through fall 2025. There's a year outlook, which may look very different than an outlook over the next three months. Yeah, it's this constant forth and back of evaluating those pros and cons.

Do I wait until next year, maybe the spring, because I will have more choices on the market, more inventory. But the home prices have increased by then because we know they will. Just for sake of having slightly better rate, is it worth the wait? And others argue, no, it's not worth the wait. I'd rather pay a little bit more right now to the bank as uncomfortable as it sounds, and take advantage of slightly lower home prices. And slightly lower, that's relative again, because again, we're living in the second most expensive area in Virginia, right? But, yeah, and I feel like I've said this so many times on this show,

it really depends on your circumstances. There's no one answer. But it makes sense to really talk to someone. As you said, it's highly localized. So sometimes it's helpful to ignore the big headlines that are aiming on things happening on the national level and look at Charlottesville in particular or the surrounding area I think was last week this big Forbes magazine headline when

will home prices be affordable again right and that's on everyone's mind. And what is affordable? Can you, as financial advisors, please define what is affordable to make? I'd love to be able to do that. I think we all agree it's for each person. Right. I was going to say, again, what you just mentioned before. When someone comes in and you're doing a financial plan,

the answer to whether or not they'll be like, can I afford to buy a house? And the answer is like, well, here's your income. Here's what it would cost you. It's affordable for you or no. But then the next guy walks in, and well, he could afford your house, but you're not him. Or vice versa.

So it really is very much about what someone can afford. And I think you made a good point that sometimes you need to be careful about the major headlines because you could sit here and say nationally, right, okay, I think interest rates are going to come down. So I'm going to wait. And I'm going to achieve a mortgage. But if the price goes up in the meantime, as we've talked before, you can refinance a mortgage at a lower rate you can't refinance your house at a lower price you can't go back probably later and say well now i'm going to buy this house all over again at a lower price that that's not reversible exactly so you need to weigh i think people see in their minds like okay a you know an interest rate going from six.5 to 5.5 saves me this much money. But

opportunity cost is harder to measure. But the price potentially going from where it is today to where it might be in three months, people have a harder time envisioning what is that going to cost me because it's not something you can immediately calculate because you don't know what it's going to be. And the interesting part is that you can do those numbers, right? So you can say, well, today's interest rate is 6.5. If I think rates are going down 1% at 5.5, at this price, this is what the difference would be, and that's what I can afford.

And so the question then is, well, if the prices go up, how much do they have to go up before you're back to that 6.5% and say, am I willing to wait because a price is going to go up 10%, 5%, whatever? And you can make that decision, but at least you have an educated guess that you can make. I was working with a client who purchased a home. He moved here from Louisiana, and he was not happy about the home prices. And he had a very interesting take, kind of funny, actually, and it worked for him. And in no way I'm suggesting that this is what people should do, just as a disclaimer.

He told me that he thinks that house that he was interested in is probably overpriced by about 30%. Those were his words. And he then continued and told me, but I'm going to buy it anyway because I looked at the area and how it develops over the years, and it's going to be even more overpriced in five years when I'm going to sell it again. So it doesn't really matter. I just want to jump in right now. And again, this is not the strategy people should go with.

But it worked for him. That's a little bit of truth to it. I like the wording. He didn't say, this is the market value. This is overpriced by 30, and it's going to be overpriced by 40 or 50. It's like, really? Maybe it's just the way the market is. But the perspective is if he's coming from indiana or the midwest toll prices are very different there so they're coming here if you're coming from there you're like oh man this is

overpriced but it's going to be overpriced again in the future so i might as well do it if you're coming from new york city manhattan you're like oh this is cheap yeah well that reminds me of i remember and this is about already probably about 10 years ago, this big bond guru, right? He had predicted where rates are going, right? And the following year, they went literally opposite of what he said, right? And they asked him at the end, he says, well, the market was wrong. And I'm sitting there going, I'm not sure the market's wrong. I mean, it's like, the market's huge and you're just one person, right?

But it's funny how just people, you know, have this perception. It's like it's overvalued. It's like, you know, is it overvalued, or is that where the market is here, you know? Maybe overvalued compared to where you are. I mean, if you live in a particular place and say, that house where I live is 30% cheaper, yeah, that may be the case. But that's the difference. That's kind of the role you play if you think about it, Matthias, because it's known behavioral science

that people value higher that which they own and they devalue in their mind that which they don't own. That's true. You're trying to help them recognize what the actual value may be

so that they can make a more informed decision. When I work with someone wanting to sell their home, that's always what comes up. Let's keep it objective is what I say. But it's hard. It's hard for someone who has emotional connections to the house and all the improvements they did to have a very different value understanding.

Look how beautiful this is. It's like, well, somebody else would come and say that's not quite that nice, right? Yeah, it's without a doubt. You always, when it's your home, and especially if you build your home, right, then you assume like, yeah, this is a palace.

This is beautiful. Everything is perfect here. And somebody else comes in and it's like, I'm not sure this is what I want. It's like, how is that possible? So, I mean, your job is the difficult one because especially if you are representing the seller too, right?

You have to find ways where you can kind of maneuver the other person. You don't want to insult the house. And you've got to sell it. Little anecdote. I'm working with someone who wanted to build a home in the mountains here in the Blue Ridge right off the parkway. And it took a long time to sit down with the architect and then find the actual builder and now it's completed yesterday I got completed and

today in the morning we we took the sunrise photographs with it that's where I'm coming from actually it's all very exciting it's a stunning property nice views but again we were in the situation where we have to give it a value, right? And then based on the value, we defined the asking price to go on the market with. And of course, the owner's opinion of the value is very high. But it's not often the case, but I actually agreed with them because I observed the construction and I saw the finished product and I'm just, it's stunning. It really is.

So the suggestion was to get an appraisal, to have someone with authority give it a value, you know, and just wait what he says. And it confirmed the value or the price opinion of the owner and mine as well. So it's not always just completely speculation. Right. And it's just fun to see and positive to see when it aligns. Sometimes you do have a good sense. Would you say in general, just out of curiosity in general, does nuclear destruction sometimes have a better handle on what the value may be than an existing home

that's been around for a while because there may be emotional connections, there's been changes made, whereas nuclear destruction, you can add up a little bit what went into the house? I want to say that it's more based on facts, because you can very closely look at material, labor. The builder remembers exactly the

price he paid for the lot. You can calculate exactly, by looking at the numbers the price of the development, the access road, infrastructure, retention pond, all those fun things. All those

are being factored into the price. The answer is yes. It is a more logical, more factual price opinion. Therefore, it's more on an objective level. It is easier. That's a motion that factors into...

If you compare it to a house built in the 1930s, so many factors to go into the pricing strategy. It's more complicated. Sure. I would agree with that. I mean, I think about it also when they build townhouses or individual homes, right? I mean, the contractor has a profit margin

that he knows he needs to hit. And, of course, it's basically, this is all my cost of material and labor. I need to make this amount of money. To a certain respect, that's the only wiggle room is his profit margin. Everything else is like this is what the market bears

because of what it costs. I didn't want to say it that way because there's a lot of hate going towards builders and we need builders to build because we need more housing. But you're absolutely right. It's pretty much always the same margin that they incorporate. So you can just, it's simple math, subtract that

and then look at all the cost factors and most of the time it really matches up. Right, right. Exactly. No, I mean, there's a role for everything, especially because a lot of times when existing houses are hard to come by, as they have been these past few years, you need something else to fill the supply. Otherwise,

the demand is even more out of whack than supplying. Your prices are only going to go higher. You need both ends. And as we were talking about the forecast for the fall market and leading up into 2025, that is actually a little bit of positive news. The prediction is that the price for new construction homes will go down because we will see more inventory of new construction compared to existing homes. So overall, the tendency of course as we know, year over year, home prices go up, but that

trend might look a little bit more optimistic for new construction as we see more of those coming on the market. And that's why we need to value and work with those builders we have in the area that operate in all price ranges, building homes, inside and outside of Charlottesville. And that is very important as the area grows and more people move here and the lack of inventories on affordable housing, frankly, such a problem. It continues to be a problem. We see too many mansions and too little affordable housing. But, again, who am I to repeat what we hear every day in the news, right?

Well, we can't change the market. Do you find sometimes that you have to, as people maybe are new to the area or they've reached out to you and they're maybe encountering this, like you've heard, I think there's probably a difference between hearing that Charlottesville is not affordable and then actually going to buy a house

and realizing, oh man, it doesn't look very affordable for me personally do you find sometimes that it's it's a matter of counseling people how do you try to navigate with them if maybe they do need to wait for their personal circumstances or it's taking longer than expected how do you try to work work with them? Because sometimes it's a patience game, but how do you kind of help to avoid the discouragement? Well, it goes back to perspective, I think. Generally, the advice that I have is not to just wait until your circumstances change.

That rarely happens. If you already live here, right, then the prices are what they are. It's going to be worse next year. Unless you expect that you downsize or whatever the factors are, then it might make sense. So it's really about finding a solution that still works. For example, are you willing to commute 20 to 30 minutes each morning? That is my reality. And I guess maybe I'm a good example then that I can mention.

Where can you prioritize? I don't want to say sacrifice, but what are your priorities? And sometimes an honest conversation, not necessarily only with me, but among the family, between husband and wife and the children, can lead to a solution. And all of a sudden it turns out that the children wanted to be surrounded by nature or have a little bit of a bigger yard. And the parents understand, maybe we can move to a different county and still be at work in 15 minutes each day. And that's just an example.

But, yeah, sometimes they're tough conversations. And most of the time, the factor that leads to that uncomfortable conversation is obviously the price. That's still reality. Yeah. Which I think, I mean, I think sometimes people with home, because it's such an emotional decision, feel like it's different. But, I mean, it's something you, if you think about it, people do every day when we're looking at people's budgets and their expenses, we sit there and say, well, we, you can't control your income, or you can't magically assume that your income is going to increase, and you can't control inflation, you can't control the price level. What you then have, all you really have left to adjust is what do I do with the income that is given to me at the price level that things cost?

And you prioritize. You realize, okay, what is more valuable to me? What is less valuable to me? I think people do this unconsciously all the time. I don't buy this. I buy that instead. I don't eat this. I eat that instead.

But with a home, sometimes it's so emotional, people forget to do that. And you're kind of helping them walk through the process of, okay, what are the things that are actually most important to me? Rather than saying, okay, I want everything. But what is most valuable? And maybe that yard is more valuable than a 10-minute commute. Or maybe it's the other way around. Maybe I'm willing to take over a 0.3-acre property because I want a 15-minute commute

and I don't want to drive 25 minutes. And I guess the challenge there is that when you buy small things, right, you can change them, you can say, I did the wrong thing. But when it comes to a house, it's a big issue. And the problem is that sometimes you make a decision

thinking, yeah, this is, you know, let's say, I'm willing to travel another 20 minutes to downtown or wherever you're working for the extra backyard, right? And then after like a year of every day doing it, you sit there and go, was it worth it, right? You know, and this is of every day doing it, you sit there and go,

was it worth it, right? You know, and this is really, I mean, it's now that 20 minutes becoming 23 minutes, right? Because I didn't think of this, I didn't think of that. And so that's the issue, is like by that time, you know, one thing is saying, yes, that's a great decision. But unfortunately, then reality kicks in is that you have to do it, right? You know, and the same thing, you could be, you know, yeah, I'm five minutes away, but then every day it's like you go and it's like the kids, it's like no place for them to play, no backyard, no anything. So that decision is always a difficult one. It's a hard one.

And when we have those conversations, I often find myself in a situation where I have to remind my clients that I'm not their financial advisor and I can't guide them on those things. What I can do is ask questions. And my experience shows me that that oftentimes brings the solution closer just by encouraging to ask those uncomfortable questions. You're helping them find the answer instead of in a way telling them the answer well if something is outside of my expertise

yes and then I often connect them to someone who can we have loan officers we have financial advisors that can work with them and then like you said it's behavioral sometimes you know what the question is you just never want to ask it and then if somebody brings it up it's like okay it's behavioral sometimes, right? You know what the question is, you just never want to ask it.

And then if somebody brings it up, it's like, okay, it's out there. I have to think about it. Yeah, we have to think about it. I have to think about it now. No, that's perfect. That's perfect. See, it's nice to talk and kind of bring that out into the open, that that's an expectation people can have and how important and helpful it is to be able to do that yeah you know

you know and things do you know like you said things things change things pick up there is there's some hope on the horizon you know it's not things don't always get worse over time they there is there's ebbs and flows to everything. Ebbs and flows to everything. There are a few predictions that make us optimistic about the fall. Of course, the fall is typically the second most important season for real estate every year after spring and we are obviously

hopeful that we will see more inventory on the market i think now that people are back home and school and college starts i think a lot of buyers will come out of their out of their caves again, give us a call, and they will evaluate what they can afford, and they will look at the rates. And fortunately, we have seen a slight drop in rates, and maybe we see even more of that in the near future. All those are signs that the economy will pick up and real estate as well. But again, we are all in the same situation, right? We struggle to make those predictions. Mm-hmm, yep.

No, we don't struggle. We can make the predictions, but we don't want them because we know we may be wrong, and therefore, why bother? But then we can say that the market was wrong. There you go. I got to remember that. want them because we know we may be wrong, but therefore, why bother? But then we can say that the market was wrong. There you go. I got to remember that. I wasn't wrong. The market was wrong.

That's a good note, I think, to close it out on. But it's been perfect. Matias, it's been a pleasure. Absolutely. As always. I love having you on. And I will be here in a month. Yep. Looking forward to it. And let's see how the market has changed then. I'm excited to have you back each month in the fall to kind of see what's developing and see whether the market is wrong or not. And that I can predict.

The market, I bet you, changes a little bit. There you go. Safe prediction. Safe position. And then we know the market was wrong. Exactly. Good to see you guys. Good to see you.

Temple shout-outs, lots of people watching this morning. Clay Smith, thanks for tuning in. Ali Jose is watching. Jim Ross, Chris Keenan, Medel Corradin watching this morning. Monita Miller from Montana joining us from this morning. Thanks to all our wonderful guests. We love having you all tune in from

across the country for our monthly meetup with Matias. You mentioned Montana, right? I mean, real estate there versus here. It must be a totally different animal. It must be completely. A totally different animal, that's for sure. Well, even there, right, you're talking about expectations, right?

Apparently a lot of people moved there after watching the show Yellowstone. Yes. Because they're like, oh, it's beautiful, the weather's great. And they see the winter, and it's like, oh, that's just not too bad of a winter, right? And then you find out people who live there, yeah, they filmed that in the fall. They filmed the winter season for Yellowstone, not in the actual winter. So then they move there, and a year later, they're like, what the heck? What do you mean?

It's like 8 to 10 feet of snow. It's negative 40. That's not what happened on Yellowstone. That's not what Kevin Costner went through. Two years later, they're gone. I can't take this. That's not what I expected. That's life.

That's a good point. I have to think about that. Navigating the real estate market is in many ways like it's different because it's such a big decision. The stock market and the markets out there are similar

that you can't predict them. You can claim the market was wrong. You can't know what's going to happen. But that doesn't mean there aren't things you can think about and steps you can take predict them. You can claim the market was wrong. You can't know what's going to happen. But that doesn't mean there aren't things you can think about and steps you can take to kind of position yourself to be able to make the best of what is out there, whether the market's going up or whether it's going down. And I think people always know the challenges of when the market goes down.

Right, okay, everything's worth less. But I think sometimes we have the challenge of okay the market went up and maybe I'm not in a retirement account, my account's taxable now what? because you're sitting there saying I have gains gains, gains, gains, gains, how do I get my

money and not pay taxes because you're going to be hit with taxes and you can't that's not a bad situation. You can't predict it. But there are things you can do to kind of think about it and prepare for it in a way. Yeah, and I think, you know, one of the things that I know we always work on is this concept of tax loss harvesting, right? And essentially what tax loss harvesting is,

is that you take a look at a portfolio, because let's be honest, if you have a diversified portfolio, all right? And let's just make it simple. So let's say you go out there and you buy a hundred stocks, right? Because you want to diversify and you like to pick stocks.

Well, there's a high probability that every single one of those stocks is up. There could be some stocks that just didn't do well for whatever reason. So those stocks may have a loss, right? So the concept is if they have a loss, then what you want to do is sell those stocks, right? And now you have a loss in your account. You can now go and find some stocks that have gains in your account right and sell those so that you balance it out so let's say you have a three thousand dollar loss you can now sell something that has a three thousand dollar gain right and you don't have to pay taxes right because

they wash each other out right and i mean there's other rules short term long term etc but they wash each other out the thing that that's important is that you eventually, right, and we've seen this like a million times, right, there are stocks that they go up, they do very, very well, and you sit there and go, like, I can't sell it because I don't want to pay the capital gain stacks. And then three years later, the stock came down, and now it's where it was when you first bought it.

And you go, I had a chance, but I didn't because I was afraid to pay the capital gain. To save 20%, I lost the entire gain. Exactly. So there are ways where, you know, and the issue is that, you know, tax loss harvesting is something that should really be a focus when you have a taxable account, not a retirement account, but a taxable account, is keep an eye on that because there's going to be opportunities. You just have to stay on top of that and say, am I now willing to do this, right? And second of all, if you have, let's say, your tax losses were having to be $6,000,

but you only want to take $3,000 of gains, now you have $3,000 of capital of losses that you have. Well, those can be adjusted versus your income, right? And of course, I always say, talk to your tax guy about this. But again, there's an advantage there. So as you said, I mean, when you buy a portfolio, the goal is for have nothing go down. But that's not reality. There are times where, I mean, and I talked about this with,

you know, when I was with Michael about, I guess, maybe three or four weeks ago, you take a look at the S&P 500, even this year, not everything's up, not every single stock in the S&P 500 is up. I mean, so at that point, I think the stock market was up about like 16%. And yet there was a good number of issues that were down. And part of it was because the Magnificent Semmel was up so high that it was hiding the fact that there were quite a few number of stocks in there or losses. So the point being is that there are ways, second of all, there are ways to create portfolios that really mimic whatever you are trying to achieve. And the important thing is always what is the client's goals? Exactly. Is this money there because you're going to use it for three years, in two years, one year, do you need liquidity?

Is it a 10-year horizon? That's important. But once you figure that out, right, you can construct a portfolio that mimics any market out there, whether it be the Russell 3000, S&P 500, whatever, in such a way that allows you, really, to eventually find ways to tax-loss harvest. Because it is one thing that people have to keep in mind is you do have to do it strategically. Because you have one major risk with tax-loss harvesting,

which is that when you, particularly with individual stocks, if you're selling a stock to realize its gain, lost harvesting which is that when you when particularly with individual stocks right if you're selling a stock to realize its gain or to realize it's lost right you sell these two stocks one of the loss one of the gain you can't go go and buy back the same two stocks tomorrow on the gain you can't no that's about well on the gain you can't but on the loss that's the important one you can't go back and buy that stock again tomorrow. Because if you do, it's called a wash sale. And the IRS says, no, you don't get to realize the loss because you bought the same stock the next day.

You've got to wait 30 days to do that. So the major risk with tax loss harvesting is if the price of that stock changes dramatically in the 30 days. You sell something. Let's say the stock in question is a stock changes dramatically in the 30 days. You sell something. Let's say the stock in question is a stock you want in your portfolio. Let's say you first started investing a year ago and you bought some stock, a major stock, like a Disney or an Amazon, right? And it's down. And you're like, oh, let me take the loss. And I'll just buy it back in 30 days.

Well, it could take off in 30 days. And now you're buying at a price that's a lot higher than what you sold it at. So that's the risk that you take with tax loss harvesting. So you need to be strategic in how you do it, and there are ways to be strategic. But for people out there, it's not quite as simple. The process is simple. The hard part is what happens in the 30 days if that stock is an important

part of your portfolio. But there are ways to do that in terms of diversification and how you go about this that can mitigate that. There are ways you can move to maybe areas that can get a similar return but are not the same stock or the same part of the S&P 500. And, I mean, where this was, back in the days, used mostly was wealthy individuals would buy a lot of municipal bonds, right? And so with municipal bonds, it was so easy, right, because you bought a bond that, let's say, was a 10-year maturity, had a 3% interest rate, and it was backed by the water company, for example, right?

And all of a sudden, you decide you got a loss. It went from 100 to 95. You got a loss. You sell it. Now you can go buy back any bond that has a 10-year maturity, right? You can't buy that same bond, but any other bond, 10-year maturity, same coupon, or maybe two months different in maturity. Same company, water company, with similar rate, and you can buy it. So now you're not even taking any risk there because you have the same bond based on your portfolio. The bonds are so mathematical. You know that that bond is not going to have a dramatically different return than the bond you sold. That's true.

It's a different bond, but it's not going to have a dramatically different return than the bond you sold. That's true. Exactly. It's a different bond, but it's not going to have a different return. Whereas you can't sell Amazon, buy Facebook, and say, well, they're going to have the same return over the next 30 days. You have no guarantee of that. You're going to have completely different returns. That's right. Because they're completely different companies. But like you said, strategically, there are ways.

There are ways in these portfolios to really create the structure you want, the kind of return profile you're hoping for, and still have the opportunity for tax-loss harvesting almost on a quarterly, yearly basis. And it's something that people should think about and look in their portfolios and say, here's an opportunity to have. Because as we mentioned before, you look at the S&P 500 and top 10 stocks. Once they become the top 10, they've had a great run. The next 10 years, those 10 stocks typically don't do as well. So if you happen to own those stocks, you're sitting there going, I've got a gold mine here. I don't want to write this down.

But how do I now begin to diversify my portfolio because it's overweighted in a few stocks? So how do I begin to take some money out of that particular company without having to pay capital gains? Exactly. And, again, there's ways, right? Exactly. So, I mean, yeah, there's a lot to think about. And there's ways to do it. Even if you lean heavily towards ETFs, there are ways to do this with ETFs.

You don't need to necessarily have all individual stocks. Absolutely. So there's different strategies that are available to people to use. And I think that's important. Well, I think it's something people don't think about as much. We all know, okay, loss is bad, right? But sometimes you will run into clients

that are like, I have all these gains. What do I do? How do I get out of this? I said, relax. There are ways to unwind this strategically. Exactly. So that's, Xavier, my tip for you. Because it's one of those

things I think most people you know when you have bull markets people don't think about taxable harvesting right but they still exist and that's the whole point they still exist and you have to make sure that you take advantage of them because bull markets create a lot of capital gains and you sit there and go now all of a sudden

in a taxable portfolio in my asset allocation I'm struggling because I can't really move this fund to that fund to this fund because I have to pay the taxes, right? So either pay the taxes and say it's still the right choice, or, you know, again, strategically there are ways to create, you know, find losses in portfolio. And I think that's a key point.

I think sometimes people don't make the correct choice that they know to be correct because they're worried about paying taxes. But it is always better to pay 20% on the correct decision than to lose your shirt because you deliberately made the wrong decision. Exactly. Because you were afraid of paying 20% so you lost the whole thing. So you have to keep that in mind. Paying taxes is a good problem to have. That's right. There are ways to mitigate it, but it's a good problem to have. That is correct. It means you've made money in some way. You don't typically get taxed on losses in this country, at least not yet. Or no income.

Or no income. And it's funny because how often do we have clients? It's like, oh, I'm paying all these taxes. I'm paying all these taxes. And I sit back and said, better to be in that situation. You're paying all these taxes. That means that you're doing well. Then coming here and saying, how do I, you know, I can't afford anything.

How do I, you know, how do you help me, right? I don't pay the taxes. I have no money. That's a much difficult challenge than saying I'm paying all these taxes. In a way, that's good. Yeah, exactly. It means you're making some money somewhere. I mean, we all hate to pay taxes.

Yeah. I mean, and I understand that. I mean, I'm in the same boat. So for now, you don't typically pay taxes when you're losing money. Exactly. Exactly, yes. So that's something to keep in mind. Exactly.

To keep in mind there. Absolutely. Absolutely. So a couple more shout-outs. Miguel saying, greetings to the Today Mojana team and Matias, greetings Miguel Hola Miguel, always a pleasure Rosalia Tordada watching

the show this morning and I noticed Monita Miller says we just had their first snow yesterday, what in August? in August winter is approaching fall is coming to Virginia and winter is coming to Montana In August. Oh, Lord. Winter is approaching. Fall is coming in Virginia and winter is coming in Montana.

In Montana. It's different. But that's the perspective, right? Exactly. We make decisions. Where am I moving if I make a decision like that? Well, try to stay warm. We pray you are staying warm. Absolutely.

Inside. Imagine we're kicking up the air conditioning because it's so hot. And there's Bobby kicking up the heat. It's like, let's show that heat's working. Yeah, that's for sure. That's for sure. Oh, boy.

Oh, my goodness. But yeah, so that's what we have for everyone. That's our three cents. Is it two cents or three cents? Inflation is three cents. The PS is five cents, but for us it's probably more like two cents. No, inflation.

From two cents to three cents. Now it's three cents worth. It's three cents. Inflation is three cents. Matias is five cents, but for us it's probably more like two cents. No, inflation. From two cents to three cents. Now it's three cents worth. It's three cents worth. But as always, it's a joy to be out with you. Same here. I love being out with Matias. I feel like we always learn so much. But just have good conversations.

Exactly. Conversations. He's so laid back and comfortable. And calm. You know, we're kind of the 15-year-old. I could definitely see, yeah, I could definitely see how working with him must be such a beautiful experience. People, all the buyers and sellers

coming in panicked. And Matisse is like, calm down. Let's look at this rationally. Let's think this through. It's like the prairie, right? When he comes in, it's like looking out on the prairie with all the wild flowers growing. No snow. And I'll be excited to see whatever beautiful photographs come out from the new construction that he filmed.

Yeah. That should be wonderful. So definitely encourage people to... By the Blue Ridge, you said, right? Yeah, by the Blue Ridge. So Matthias Jön Realty, if people are interested in reaching out to him, we stream, obviously, through his page, but on Facebook, you can definitely find him at Matthiasias Young Realty, if you're interested

in reaching out to him. And talking to him. Which is a good idea. Absolutely. So next week, we've got some more great guests tuning in. We're going to have Najiba from Angels Afghan Cuisine. As well as Carmel from South Paddock Winery at Whitehall Farm.

So we've got some great guests tuning in, joining us next week. Food and wine. Food and wine. I mean, it's always a beautiful thing, food and wine. Food and wine, as Judah knows, coffee. That's right. So, but it's been, we're looking forward to that.

Do we have any time to finish that conversation? Let me see. We've got 60 seconds. We'll start it, and then suddenly the feed will just turn off. The show ended. The closing credits will just come on in the middle. But wonderful to be here with you. Same here, Alex, as always.

Thanks to everyone who tuned in today. Thanks again for your questions, for your comments, for your likes and shares. Always appreciate our great viewers. As we always say, I mean, this show is, you know, it's fueled by the people who tune in and send us their thoughts and who watch the show. So we really, really appreciate everyone for tuning in this morning. We looked at Rosalia.

She says, have a good day. Have a wonderful day, Leah. We send you our best. Absolutely. Love and hugs, as always. And so thank you all for tuning in. Thanks to Judah behind the camera making us all look good. Thanks to the... I'm not sure he

might have done that today. I'm really going to have to go back and see the show. See the show, yeah. He probably didn't put the filter today. He's not tired of these guys. Everyone can see what they really look like. But of course, thanks to Matias, your realty credit series insurance forward adelante. Thanks to all of you. Stay warm, stay dry, enjoy the beautiful weekend.

We look forward to seeing you next week. But until that time, have a wonderful Labor Day. And hasta mañana. Gracias por ver el video.