The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Matthias John Joined Michael Urpí & Xavier Urpí On "Today y Mañana" On The I Love CVille Network!

Episode Date: July 17, 2025

Matthias John of Matthias John Realty joined Michael Urpí & Xavier Urpí On “Today y Mañana!” “Today y Mañana” airs every Thursday at 10:15 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Today y Ma��ana” is presented by Emergent Financial Services, LLC, Charlottesville Opera and Matthias John Realty, with Forward Adelante.

Good morning everyone and welcome to today, manana. I'm Michael, happy to be joined by Xavier. On a very humid day, we probably lost like two pounds just walking here. Just walk from the garage to here, but we made it a one piece, so that's all that matters. We got a great show lined up for you today. We're going to be joined shortly by Matisse Matisse Matisse young from a T's young reality As always we are happy to be presented by emergent financial services powered by our wonderful sponsors Matisse Charlesville opera and faba. I

Know there was something I wanted to Oh, yes. I actually was very lucky to go see pirates. Oh, yeah Yeah, and it was wonderful. It was an excellent show. They always... You got to see both, the Pirates and the... Carmen. Carmen, right. Yes.

You came with me to see Carmen. Carmen, I saw Carmen, yes. Yes, which was excellent. And then Pirates was fantastic. It was really a lot of fun. People came with their kids. Some of the performance were really good because I'd never heard Pirates before. And there were some songs that were really tough, like Major General, that song, I realized how fast the

singer has to sing that. And it's constant. It's like a five, six minute song. And he's going and going and going and going. That's by Gilbert and Sullivan, right? Yes. And it was fantastic. And the sets were one of the best that they ever had. Of course everyone was dressed as a pirate, they also had like these great decorations that really kind of made you feel like they were on like a pirate beach. Yeah exactly. So yeah they did a really fantastic job. Well that's wonderful that's wonderful. Yeah I didn't get to see that one but I saw Carmen. Yeah you

were busy babysitting. Exactly babysitting that's right. Yeah you know you got to babysit. A lot going on in the Erpia family and a lot going on in the Matias family. I know I know Matias has got some great news. We haven't seen Matias since June. It's been a long time since we've seen Matias. Maybe we should just kind of like go right to him. He's here. He's anxious to get going. We might as well invite him. He's here, right? I know. He's standing there waiting to be invited.

We're happy to be joined now officially by, with Matias. Matthias, thank you so much for coming on. I was wondering when I'm allowed to talk. I mean, you can talk anytime. That's fine, you know. You won't be on camera though, unless you get introduced, you know. That's sort of like the call. The voice from the off. Exactly. The voice of God coming from. Good morning.

Well, good morning to you. Thank you. Thanks for having me again. You're right, Michael. I haven't been here since May. Since May. You missed all of June. I had to skip June. I know. We missed you.

It wasn't the same. I had to do a show with Xavier just by ourselves. Remember? It was terrible. It was just you and me. It was terrible. It wasn't terrible. People were probably bored.

They're like, where's Matthias? I get promised Matthias once a month. That's different. The Matthias fans were disappointed. Monica, I know Monica'sisse once a month. Well, that's different. The Matthias fans were disappointed. Well, Monica, I know Monica's probably watching from Montana. She always watches when Matisse is around. I hope so. Guten Morgen, Monica. Yeah, I'm sure she's watching. She always does.

But I know you have some wonderful family news you kind of wanted to share. We were just talking about grandkids and little babies. Yeah, when you talk about little kids, I have something to share as well. My daughter started walking yesterday, finally. Congrats. That's fantastic though. I know it's a blessing and at the same time they, you know. It's cute when they're walking and then it becomes a little less cute when they start running because then it's like, you know, they're running to get this funny I know don't touch that. No, no, no, don't put that in your mouth. Don't yeah. Yeah

I I'm excited about it and my wife has mixed feelings. She's the one at home I hope I'm chasing her and You have a better chance chance catching up if she's just crawling like a bug but she used to why she's so probably doing it right now, we had to constantly push her to try to walk. And yesterday, all of a sudden, all of a sudden. So did she get up by herself? Is that what happened?

No, no, to be fair, I encouraged her again. And like I usually do after work, and there's one room where we have a big carpet where the fall is not that hard. I encourage her to walk towards me and usually she gets excited about standing and then falls on her bottom and crawls towards me. Yesterday she just walked. There she was and it was an exciting moment. Did she get really excited when she kind of completed her I-Vet? We tried to applaud when something significant happens. And so we clapped and she just sat full of joy on the floor, clapping in her hands, uploading.

It was a happy emotional moment. And yeah, so lots of family updates. We have a second daughter on the way. Wow, congratulations. To in October. Wow, so that's going to be, I mean, that's a lot of chasing. And Natalie will have a little one in the oven there. So chasing May is going to be a little harder than what we want it

to be. It will be a funny image for sure. You're going to be surrounded by women now, Matthias. Surrounded by women. Surrounded by women. I don't know if that means we should try or not try for a third. Let's talk about it next year. Exactly.

No, but happy to be back. Great to have you back. To be sitting here with you two. And Alex, oh, I just realized Alex is not here. I know, it's Michael today. I thought you looked different. Nice to meet you. Alex is not here. I know. It's Michael today. Yeah. I thought you looked different. Nice to meet you.

No, I mean Alex has been busy with his own little one, you know, so you know. Yeah, we've got two little ones also. Yeah, Alex has one, Nicholas has one. Nicholas has one, so yeah, that keeps them busy too. Yeah, it's right now they still haven't entered the talking phase, but they get very close. It's amazing how you can see the little babies and it's sort of like they're getting frustrated now because they actually want to say stuff and sometimes they're not saying it's like, ugh, ugh, ugh.

And then you can see the frustration. The brains are almost ahead of their mouths in some ways. The brain is like, oh, I want to say this and they're trying to say it and move it and it's not happening. And you see them get frustrated like this. It's like, you know, I can't get it out. Same thing, sometimes they want to move. I've seen Pasquale and Maria, they're trying to grab something, trying to move, but their body is just kind of not moving the way they want.

And then they get frustrated. It's like, I can't move. It's like Xavier was trying to get up in the morning early to water the plants. He's like, was trying to get up in the morning early to water the plants. He's like, get up. I don't think it's quite the same. But then I get the pulley and I got to wheel you up. Oh, boy.

So we could spend the whole show talking about babies. Sure. They're a lot of fun. It's a blessing. Yeah, blessing. Well maybe that's a good topic for an entire show. Talk about babies. Baby talk. Yeah, but then eventually I'm gonna run out, I got no babies. You're a good uncle though, they love their uncle Michael. Yeah, that's your advantage Michael. You get to observe what's happening in your family with your brothers. You just learn.

Learn from their mistakes. I got to make sure I learn not how to change the diaper. And then you're fully prepared. And then all I see is my brother's running to go change diapers. I'm like, oh man, I can't learn how to change a diaper. I got to be ignorant. I'm like, oh no, I changed the diaper. Sorry, honey. You got to be like Raymond, right? Remember that show, Raymond? Everybody loves Raymond? Everybody loves Raymond.

It's like, you know, you just make sure you don't know how to do anything and you don't have to do anything. That show works in reality that way, but anyway, you can try. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, it's a great idea in theory, but I think when it comes to practice, it's not going to fly. Whatever wife you're going to marry, be like, I don't know how to change a diaper. It's like, oh, no, but I think when it comes to practice, it's not going to fly whatever wife you're going to marry. Be like, I don't know how to change a diaper.

It's like, oh no, you're going to learn. Very fast. You're going to learn on the fly if you have to. Or you were going to learn how to change a diaper. Oh boy. Now I have a question for you two. And I know I'm not supposed to ask questions. It's the other way around.

You can ask questions. I only trust Matisse when he asks questions. Because one time we were doing a show just after Newsy and he on the fly asked me a New Year's resolution question. And I hate New Year's resolutions. Right on the spot. And I hate New Year's resolutions. And you still remember it today. I still remember it today.

No. In my job as a realtor, what the expectation is that I'm up to speed with headlines relating to the national economy and how it applies to our local market and frankly that's what we talk about every day, whether with our clients or among peers. And so you two working as financial advisors, what do you make of the headlines, first of all, and what they say about our economy?

Because my observation is often that one day you have fantastic news or you perceive them as fantastic news and then the next day you read something that completely contradicts it. news and then the next day you read something that completely contradicts it and I think that kind of mirrors what we're experiencing right now with you know with the government not to get into politics but you have a lot of conflicting news it goes up and down in the news cycle and what do you make of it you working in finance what's your What's your analysis of right now this week? Well you know that's actually a great question and what I always tell people is that we live in an environment now especially that we have phones right and

the amount of information we get on these phones is just non-stop right and what I tell especially when I tell clients is that to me that's just noise right so in other words there's the noise around us is overwhelming, right? So you can't be just paying attention to the noise. You have to really focus on, and this is exactly what you do, right, with your clients, you have to focus on what it is that your client's goals are, right? What are you trying to achieve for every single one of your clients, right? And if you can focus on that,

and don't let that noise bother you, then you can do the job you're supposed to do. Because let's be honest, are we invested in the markets? Well, of course. And so are we invested most of the time long-term? Most likely, because most people are looking either to retire at a particular age or they've come to retirement,

and so now they're looking for specific cash flows. So how you construct that portfolio is important, right, and whether people are saying this economy is gonna crash or this company is gonna go up or tariffs and of course this kind of inflation or whatever it is that you're hearing, right, isn't as important as making sure that what you're trying to achieve for your client is what you're focusing on. And again, it's just like you said, right? I sit there and I see the national information on real estate, right? And I can sit there and go, real estate is going to really have a real challenge over the

next couple of months or in the next year because I see all the national information coming at me right but you work in the local right so you may sit there and go yeah that's what they say nationally but from a local perspective you know this is what we're seeing right so so that's that's how we approach it in the sense that is to me it's it's, it's information, but you have to sit back and say, what's my task? And then achieve it that way. So a very individual approach, just like we do in real estate. Yeah. Every buyer has a different objective.

Yeah. Okay. Well, that's a good point and a little relieving to hear from you being in that sector, probably reading a lot of news every morning before you go to work because you expect people to ask you for your opinion, right? So what do you make of it? How do you interpret it? Do you listen to this headline today, even though you know on average it's actually

a little bit toned down, as you call it. It's noise. I think noise is a good term for that. I admit that's a challenge. We are facing a lot of noise. My experience after 11 years in Charlottesville is that in Charlottesville, 11 years, yeah, is that in Charlottesville, we don't really follow the national housing market. We quietly outperform it often. Yeah. I think it describes well what is happening on this micro level in Charlottesville often.

We are facing sometimes the challenges that we have in the national housing market. We have them amplified often in Charlesville, for example, lack of inventory, right? The need, the urgent need of more new construction in Virginia or here in the greater Charlesville and also Richmond area.

So yeah, when I say we outperform what's happening on the national level, also in the negative side, right? Not just with regard to positive outcomes. And we still face that challenge right now. But what I am observing, or what we are observing in real estate is that there's like a reshuffling

of the housing market happening right now. So we wouldn't, we don't really talk about a recession, just a reshuffling or maybe also a shift in the balance. And historically speaking for many years, we've been in this seller's market, right? When inventory is so low and the demand of buyers is so high, we speak of a seller's market. And I think we will stay in that dynamic

in Charlottesville and in our area here because the demand is so high. But the balance is shifting a little bit. And what happens then is the power dynamic shifts as well. Right, and what we're observing right now is sellers of a house, whether it's in Charlesville or outside, they can no longer dictate prices from 2021 or just last year, 2024. They have to rethink, they have to adapt. So whoever adapts right now as a seller is able to sell a house, but you need

to adapt. That's the observation we are making probably since April of this year. And as a result, buyers sitting on the sidelines, and they have been for many years because it was challenging to find, to afford a home and to outbid all the other multiple bidders on the very same property, they are now having a good time, right? Because they now, they can, they no longer have to waive a home inspection, for example, and I'm not implying that's a good idea in general,

but we have seen many people do that, which is mostly not a good idea in general, but we have seen many people do that, which is mostly not a good idea. Now they can insist on an inspection. Now they can actually approach the health search with a little bit more patience and more diligence. So the outcome for a buyer right now in Charlesville is much better, just within months that has shifted. And for a seller that means a more realistic approach, right?

We still have very hard neighborhoods where we see multiple offers for one property, but generally speaking, it looks different, right? And don't get me wrong, the houses are still, the median home value still slowly increases. We see that trend continuing, but at a slower pace. And it will be very interesting to see what's happening on a local level as the economy unfolds, as we listen to all the noise, as you said.

What do you think? Yeah, so it's interesting because I always look at, again, I'm not a real estate person, right? But I've always looked at real estate as the two major areas where it impacts real estate. One is inventory, right? Because we have a lot of inventory then, of course, you know, then it's really more of a buyer's market than a seller's market, right? And the other one is interest rates, right? Because we have a lot of inventory, then of course, you know, then it's really more

of a buyer's market than a seller's market, right? And the other one is interest rates, right? Because that is the value of money in the sense of what am I paying for this house? And when interest rates are high, it makes your monthly expense much higher, right? And so interest rates are the only thing that obviously from a national point of view,

everybody's paying the same interest rate. It's not like Charlottesville pays less of an interest rate than somewhere north or whatever. So from that perspective, that's a constant, that everybody goes through that. But the other one is truly, as you mentioned, is a function of locality. And some places there may be much more supply than there is in Charlottesville. But it's a good point, in other words, what you're saying is the shift is not so much

that there is now an overwhelming availability of property, but rather that the market is such that is not, for every house that's for sale, there aren't 10 buyers. There may be two or three buyers, right? And so there's a sense that I no longer really have to kind of rush in and if somebody's asking for $500,000, I'm just making these numbers up, of course. $500,000, I'm going to bid $505,000 because I want that house, right?

People say, all right, let me see where it is, what the property is, what it looks like, and maybe I'll bid a little less now and see what happens, right? As opposed to, like I said, maybe a year ago is like, if I don't bid what they're asking for, I'm not even going to get close. So is that the dynamic that's changed a little bit? Yes, so with the mortgage rates, Xavier, I feel like we have all been waiting for many years now for the rates to come down, right? And when I say we, I mean collectively,

as a nation who's interested in buying their next home, right, we've been waiting for the rates to come down, and it hasn't happened, even though the predictions were more optimistic than the reality looks like now. And so I often wonder how many people are just not paying attention anymore because they have given up on a short-term drop of rates. Sure, long-term we all know it is heading that direction, but if you're looking for

a house in the next 6 to 12 months, you might not be looking at the interest rates as much anymore. And so, but it comes more down to what quality of life can you afford in the area as opposed to what will be the exact rate. And that's a problem that we don't often talk about. What does it mean in terms of household income that you need to buy a home in the Charlottesville area, in the Richmond area, anywhere in Virginia? It is a challenge. I looked at the numbers for what is required for a household. For a median priced home in our area,

you require a household income of 125,000. And then I wondered, well, what is the median income for a household in Virginia? And in the age of 25 to 45, it is actually, and you probably know this, it's less than 100,000. I think it's 91,000. So what does that mean? The average age goes up.

I mean, sometimes we hear those jokes about the 35-year-old living in his parents' basement, right? It's based on reality for many. And if you pair this with this urgent need for more housing, for more existing houses, new construction, that need will just go up if policymakers in Virginia don't change things, we need home builders to build more. And I personally know of smaller builders that are just giving up either because material and labor has become difficult to afford or because of regulations.

And that's not helping to get in that direction of creating more housing, right? Interesting to say that. I mean that was one of the questions I was going to have for you. In other words, obviously inventory can come from two places, right? One is people willing to sell their homes, right? But that's going to be a real challenge, especially for people that have interest rates on their mortgage. I mean, there is an impact somewhere along the line, right? But if you're paying 3.5 percent interest and then want to move to another house, and now you're going to be paying 7 percent, your monthly payment does increase, right?

So you sit back and go, am I willing to do that at this point in time, right? So that inventory may not come to fruition there. But in the new housing construction, I wonder, is the cost of construction such that a lot of home builders are saying, I'm not going to build a home speculating that I'm going to have a buyer, but I'm only going to build it if I already have the buyer in hand. Is that happening? Well, it depends on the scale that you're operating on.

Right? And we have regional or national builders that are not concerned that much on the individual buyer being in line already, but custom home builders, sure. Is this really a conversation about custom home builders? Probably not, but to answer your question, it depends on how big the operation is. But generally speaking, as a builder, you're not worried about finding a buyer for your home,

no matter the price category. And what I'm saying applies to our area. Okay, because you know there's already enough demand that you're going to be able to sell those homes. Yes, that's what we're observing. Now you talked about regulations. Are regulations reducing the amount of construction that's going on or is just taking long to get them online?

Both of it, both. You know, some counties operate better than others. Some counties are faster than others. I don't want to be too negative, but it's more difficult in Alabama County, the permitting process, than in Fluvanna, for example. That's the reason why Fluvanna is one of the fastest growing counties in Virginia. Everything takes a little bit longer in Albemarle, right?

And so, that's just learning from talking to builders what their challenges are, and the smaller the builder, the more challenging that is, of course. Right. And with the rates, I admittedly said, you know, my observation is some people are not paying as much in attention anymore to the rates and whether they will drop short-, mid term or long term.

At the same time, I also wonder what if we do experience just a slight drop of rates? What will this mean for our market here? You know, wouldn't that, imagine that going down, Xavier, to the lower sixes. Wouldn't that reignite a buyer surge? Absolutely. Immediately? Yeah. What does that mean for home prices?

What does that mean for the inventory we were talking about? And also, we just realized that since April, we are seeing the dynamic normalizing a little bit, that will be gone immediately. And so are we really looking forward to that because are the circumstances such that we can cater to those wires? Right? So it's finding the balance.

I guess my point on the real real estate wasn't was more like You know probably before you go out to buy a home. I suspect you do the homework In other words if I have to pay 7% You know, what can I buy in other words if I'm at 6% can I buy a six hundred thousand dollar home? Yeah, but at 7% that's 550 and so of course once you have that then it's okay Here's my limit and then you don't care Yeah, you don't care what the rates are because you've already done the homework and you know what your but your limit changes, of course You go out there say that's the one I like well that's 600. Oh boy And so Matisse I have a question

What type of buyers right now are the other ones that are in the market right now? because you mentioned like younger people wouldn't be out in the market right now? Because you mentioned younger people wouldn't be out in the market right now because still living with your parents, for example, or in a situation with interest rates so high, they might not be looking for a house. So who right now is kind of in the buyer's market? Well, I think buyers in Charlottesville and many that I'm working with, they're buying right

now and not waiting. They're buying right now because they either start a job here because they are relocating their family here or because they, you know, life circumstances, life decisions just force them into a new housing situation, downsizing or, for example, in our case, at some point we're looking at a bigger house because of the babies. And so those that are just more basing that big decision on lifestyle changes, for example, they are probably sitting more at the sidelines right now. We also have, and we need to talk about it, we also have people that saw a dip in their

retirement accounts because of the implications of the trade wars and so on and what's happening since earlier this year. And so those that are affected are probably not urgently looking to buy a home right now. That has an impact. Does that answer your question? So the motivation is slightly different now. It has an impact on whether we will see a surge or not.

So I guess, and maybe just follow up on Michael's question, if you're a single person that is still, let's say, living at home, the incentive to buy a house may not be there as much as a couple that is married and looking to grow a family or a couple that already has a family, a couple of young ones saying we need a bigger home or in the case of older folks that are saying this house is not too big for us, we need to downsize. Would that be the case? Yes.

It goes back to the individual situation of that buyer, whether it's an individual or a family. You know, what are their needs right now and how urgently is it? It goes back to what I'm observing about people relocating to the area. Sure, they're going to buy a house, right? They also didn't have the chance to sit on the sidelines and watch the local housing market for a while. They're just seeing what the status quo is and they react, right?

And so, yeah, those that are priced out of, that are priced out of or that are struggling to afford a home in our area, they're not necessarily making a move now either. Do you see, I'm sorry, do you want to finish your thought? No. Okay. Do you see, I mean, obviously I would suspect, and I may be wrong, you're in real estate, but I would suspect that people still want to be as close as possible to Charlottesville. I mean if you think of, you know, where are the restaurants, where are the, you know, we talked about going to the opera, etc. The symphonies and things like that.

So where's the activity? The activity still probably is centered around Charlottesville. So I would assume the housing market around Charlottesville is a little more expensive than the surrounding areas. Are you seeing that expand and moving outward where people's like, I'm willing to live 30, 40 minutes away if that pricing is a little more beneficial to me. Is that happening and what's that expand of mileage

that people are willing to live away from Charlottesville? Yeah, absolutely. And that's a very good point because we just talked about the necessary median household income for a home in Charlottesville at the prices we're looking at here. And so that household income needs to be higher than necessary in Nelson County or in Fluvena County. And so what's happening is we have more and more people just realizing they can't afford Abumar County

or Charlottesville and they're looking in surrounding markets. You're absolutely right. So Wayne's borough is filling that gap. Even the Stanton area, even though it's further than Charlottesville. And It goes to your question about how far are people willing to travel, and that's the sweet spot of 30 minutes driving distance. It's, you know, that's what I'm personally comfortable with,

but it's what I hear every time in a conversation with a buyer that asks me if we can look at properties outside of Charlottesville. Obviously the question is how far are you willing to travel? That's why Crozet has become, the last 20 years, such a popular spot for families. He's still so close by and the quality of life is still very high up there. And of course that market has exploded, that the prices are higher and now builders are

focusing on Wainsborough, right? And the other side of Charlesville towards Richmond. And those areas have remained stable while we see less bioactivity here, because the house prices are not going down since April. They're either stagnant or going up slightly still. And so people are focusing more on outside of town where they have more buying power. No, absolutely.

And I think what we will see is what they have more buying power. Right. No, no, absolutely. And I think what we will see is what people are comfortable traveling on a daily basis will become more flexible too. If the sweet spot right now is 30 minutes, maybe we are facing conversations about 45 minutes. And that's the reality in many suburban areas. facing conversations about 45 minutes. That's the reality in many suburban areas. Just have to look at Northern Virginia. How many hours do people spend in their car there every day?

Right, and I'm not suggesting that this is what we do. That's only five miles away from work. That's 30 minutes, yeah. Yeah. But yeah, those are the conversations. Yeah. True. Interesting, interesting. Yeah, yeah. So I mean, yeah, those are the conversations. Yeah. Interesting. Yeah.

Yeah. So I mean, yeah, that's, so again, that really is, real estate, to a certain respect, is it's just so localized. And you can't just, like you said, you can't look at the national news and say, this is what's happening, because what's happening

in your local community could be completely different, right? Is there an impact from what's happening? Yes, how the economy's moving, what's going on, in the sense of the markets, interest rates, a little bit of real estate. Yes, it has a filtering effect, but how that local real estate market reacts is just different from one place to another.

And what you just said, I think is perfect marketing for us local real estate agents in the area, right? Southville housing market is less about headlines and more about local knowledge. How does what we hear in the headlines, how does it apply to our marketeer? And sometimes the answer is, well, it does not and here's why. Right? And I'm sure you talk about those things too with your clients. But now I guess that's bottom line of the message.

Right? Well, it reminds me of, you know, so one of the sectors that we've been looking at for a couple of years is really the small cap sector, right? So these are the smallest of the companies in the U.S. market, right? So think about, and just to make it simple, there's really about 3,000 companies that are public in the U.S. and 2,000 are small, right? And that creates a small cap index. And that small cap index,

in the, there was a time, and I think it's 2001 to 2004, I mean that thing was just like going through the roof as far as value was concerned, right? In other words, it just kept going up and up. But for the last like 15 years or so, it has underperformed value stocks and growth stocks, right? In other words, it just kept going up and up. But for the last 15 years or so, it has underperformed value stocks and growth stocks, right? And particularly growth stocks because of Nvidia and Tesla and Microsoft, et cetera, right? But it's been almost like 21 years, right? So the issue is the pendulum eventually will swing back, right? And so, but you look at it and say, well, it's not as easy to say, let me just buy the

index which has the 2,000 stocks. And the reason is because that index has a lot of companies in there that are just like, they're not going anywhere, right? I mean, they're barely making ends meet. So that's an area where you say, instead of just, it's like, it's the national version, right? You can't just say, I'm going to buy this because from a perspective of national-wise, that's going to go up. No, you have to really be picky about what area in that sector makes sense

so that you can pick apart what you think is going to do well. So it's the same thing as real estate, right? You can't look at it from the U.S. perspective and say, oh, yeah, it's having trouble. Well, no, because maybe this area in Washington is doing well. Maybe this area in Florida is doing well. Maybe this area in Virginia is doing well. So there are areas where it just doesn't follow the trend of the global market, if you want to call that. That's absolutely right.

I was working with a family that moved here from California and they came with this, those set expectations also in regard to outcome in one year or in two year if the circumstances change and they have to sell, they immediately had numbers in mind what they can expect to generate in terms of profit based on equity in one year or two years. And those numbers were just not correct. They were California numbers.

They were not Charlesville numbers. And so it made me wonder, yeah, you can't make predictions based on what you gather from one area in the country and apply it to here. Right, right. It's more nuanced than that, yeah. Exactly, exactly, yeah. True. One part of wisdom thought out, I believe, is Yogi Berra once had a quote, famous quote,

saying, predictions are very difficult to make, especially when they're about the future. Who said that? Yogi Bear. He was a Yankees catcher. He was famous for his little quips and stuff like that. He used to say, a nickel ain't worth a dime anymore. Yeah.

I like that one a lot too. But, no, Matias, it's always wonderful having you on and sharing everything, you know, your life. I know you got another edition on the way, so that's always fantastic, giving us a little insight into the local Charlotte for Wheeltees situation. So it's always great kind of getting your wisdom and your thoughts and coming on and sharing it with us. Well, I'm just thankful to, you know thankful to be allowed on the show once a month.

It's fun having you because it is, again, as you said, right, I mean, obviously in the financial world, we look at the specifics in more detail. But in the other areas where we don't, you know, we just don't pay as much attention, we just kind of look at the national information and say, okay, so, yeah, real estate is suffering, so maybe from a REIT perspective, do we buy REITs, do we not buy REITs, is this area going to do well? So it's nice to hear from somebody that's local because we can sit back and say, you know, you also have to be cognizant of the

fact that, you know, real estate is just like in our markets. Just because there's 3,000 securities, that doesn't mean they're all going to go up at the same time. Some go up, some go down. So you have to think about what is it that you think is going to happen or what is happening in certain areas so that when you begin to invest in certain sectors, at least you are doing an informed investment as opposed to oh, nationally, this is what should happen. Yeah, and that's what I mean with that. I'm thankful. I think the pitch is worthwhile. Talk to someone local.

Get local knowledge, consultation in an era where you can go on certain websites, won't say the name, and sell your home there or even purchase a home. That number is so small, but I think it's growing. And so in that era, I will not tire to repeat my pitch, talk to someone local, whether it's me or anyone here that has the local knowledge. And I guess that's what I mean with my pitch. But also, I'm always happy to be here and to brag about my baby. Baby soon. So when is Natalie due?

In October. October, okay. Second week of October. Exciting times. I'll be there. I'll be here before you know it. Absolutely. And May will be running around. Exactly. That's right.

Oh, she's walking, not only walking, she's running. This is the year, yeah. Well, thank you so much. I appreciate it. Yeah, thank you so much for coming on. It's always a pleasure. Nice talking to you guys. Same here.

So it's funny, because we briefly talked about interest rates in the economy. I know you had some thoughts you kind of wanted to share a little bit. Yeah. So, well, it was really, you know, the, and I'm going to say the so-called big, beautiful bill was signed on July 4th, right? And the reason I want to talk about it, and it wasn't really so much financial as it was from a tax perspective, right, why it's important for people to pay attention to what has changed, right? The first thing is, you know, I said that

tax, the quote-unquote tax cuts, there weren't any tax cuts, right? The thing was... They just extended the tax cuts from 2017. Which is a big deal because people would have seen their taxes go up in Manhattan. Yeah, I mean, in most cases, most tax brackets would have seen their taxes go up in Manhattan. Yeah, I mean in most cases most tax brackets would have gone up either 2 or 3 percent, right? In other words, if you're paying 12 it will get on to 15 if you were paying 15 to 18 so on and so forth, right? So that's a big deal, right? I mean in other words that's just that's a lot of money when you look at it. So that was important to be able to say that is now kind of locked in, right? So it didn't expire, right? A few of the things I think came out of that too, which I think are important.

And one is the standard deduction was also increased, which is really good both for, you know, if you're an individual, if you're a head of household, obviously if you file jointly, the standard deductions increased and let me just see, hold on, because I didn't memorize them, but I think the standard deductions for joint, for example, is now up to $31,500, right? So if you don't have enough itemized deductions to put in your taxes, you can just boom, 31,500. That's a nice bundle, right? So that went up a little bit. I think that was about 1,125 that it went up. So that was a good thing, I think, for most people. But the one area that I think is also critical, and that was the salt tax, which is the state state and local right. So if we remember well the salt tax was capped at $10,000. In

other words even if you pay taxes in you know 15, 20, 25 thousand dollars I mean if you lived in New York I mean you know there are there are people paying over $20,000 on their real estate taxes right. You only put down ten thousand dollars so in the end they looked at it's like I can't even itemize enough in order to take advantage of the fact that I'm paying all these taxes so they went with the standard deductions right now that has changed to forty thousand dollars right that's huge which is fine for the next five years start yes yeah exactly so so that's important right Because before you take a look at your taxes, before you do your taxes for next year, so in other words, this already impacts 2025.

Meaning when you go do your taxes in 2026, you can now take a look at it and say, wait a minute, I have, you know, I pay more than $10,000 in real estate taxes, so should I be itemizing this year, right? Do I have mortgage interest? Do I have, you know, the state and local tax? Do I have medical expenses? So all that you can now put into the itemized list and see whether or not, you know, your total is greater than the standard deduction. So it's something that I want people to think about before they go to the even their, you know, tax consultant or make sure they talk to their tax consultant and say, hey, are we better off itemizing this year?

So I only say this now is because I want you to think about it because, you know, unfortunately, you know how taxes are. You don't think about it throughout the year and then all of a sudden, you know, it's February and March. It's like, oh, I got a bit paid for taxes. And you didn't think about it, right? So start thinking about all the things that you can itemize, right, and keep good records so that when the time comes, you can take a look at it and say, hey,

this is the year where itemizing will save me on taxes, which it didn't in the past. So that's important. The other one that I think is very good if you're a senior citizen, right, you're 65 years and over, is the six thousand dollars extra, right? So the concept of you know, no taxes on social security, right? It's not like they just pulled that away. What they said was we're going to give you, because you're a senior citizen, as long as you don't make, I think as as a joint if you're not making more than $150,000 a year right you can add another $6,000 to that standard deduction right so in most cases I would I would say senior citizen probably not itemizing in their deductions right so you're using the standard deduction so let's say you're a joint you're a couple

So you're using the standard deduction. So let's say you're a joint, you're a couple, and you're not making more than $150,000. That $31,500, you add $6,000 to that, so now that's $37,500. So that's very, very good because, again, your Social Security becomes income. You may have a pension that's income. You have interest income that may be coming. Or you may have a requirement of distribution that it may hit. So at least you are now reducing that income burden right and so you'll be paying less taxes. So I thought that was another one that's really good. So again that's just one area where I want you to remember that

or remind your tax person's like hey you know we're below the 150,000, I don't think we're going to be able to find itemized deductions that are greater than, in this case, 37,500, right? So we have to remember to put 31,500 plus to $6,000, which is for senior citizens. So I think that was – that is a good one for senior citizens and something to remember. So so these were just little things that I wanted to make sure that that and I'm sure everybody's reading about them but I want to make sure that people focused on it because you know when it comes to tax time if you can say. Sometimes people don't learn about this stuff till it's too late to actually take action on it

versus at least now you kind of giving them a little snippet before, like you said, especially because taxes, I mean, everyone part just feels, well, I just finished paying my taxes, I'm not going to be thinking about taxes. Well, start thinking about it now because you can deduct up to $10,000 of interest from a car purchase, right, as long as that car was assembled in the U.S., right, which I think is good on both ends. One is why not try to buy a car that's assembled in U.S.? I think it's good for the U.S. It's good for U.S. workers, right? So I think that's good. And two, if you do that, then you can take off $10,000, which I think is also good. So those are areas that the bill, and again, some of these, yes, some of these are not, they're only lasting for three years to five years. And the reason for that is that obviously

they didn't get the required votes by the Senate to make it, you know, permanent. We only got them for three years or five years. There's a good chance that maybe in the next time the bill comes up on that, I would hope that the Senate agrees on it again and that makes it permanent because these are all good for the consumer, right? I mean, you can't tell me that this is not a good thing for most working families in the US. So I think that's a these are good things that at least came out from this particular bill, which I again, I just want to highlight not because I think the bill is good or bad, well, only because this can impact the majority of people that people

need to be aware of. Exactly. And like you always said, it's never too early. Start thinking about it, itemizing. It's better to start doing it now than you wait until the last minute because whenever you wait until the last minute and you procrastinate, it's always a disaster. We know how it is. And it's not to blame anybody, but if you're a tax person, you know, in January, hardly anybody brings you anything, right? I know starting in February, you just get, boom, bombarded with people wanting to do their taxes.

I feel bad because some of these guys get bombarded like late March. Exactly. Like March and early April. And they don't have all day to sit down with you and say, oh, what else can we itemize? Did you do this? Did you do that? Did you think of this? They don't have the time. You're gonna give them everything. They're gonna say, okay this is it? Yes. And boom, they're gonna put it through their system and here's your taxes, right? So it's good for you to think about it beforehand and who knows, maybe make an

appointment with your tax person at the end of December or early December and say, hey I've kind of added everything up and I think maybe this year I might be able to itemize what do you think, you know, what should I be thinking about or looking at? And he has a lot more time at that point to say, well, don't forget this and don't forget that and, you know, you know, make sure you take a look at this and then this way you're prepared and by the time you get to see him it's like yeah you've got everything you already know. I got more than you know 31,500 if you're a married couple or whatever it is for a single file or so. I just think that's important you know. Supposed to wait like usually wait for the last minute. I don't

know if you have any more time but. No we still have time if you want to share one more thought. Yeah well no the other thing was that you know we discussed the you know obviously with Matthias we talked a little bit about the economy and the ups and the downs and you know this has been a this has been a difficult year in the sense of trying to figure out what is going on and and and what's happening only because yeah it's it's difficult in the sense that we didn't really know what was going on. We didn't know exactly what the ramifications were going

to be of some of the actions going to be taken. And now as the dust has begun to settle, you get a little clearer picture of exactly what's going to happen and what's going on. But sorry to interrupt. Go ahead. No, no. And you're absolutely right.

And again, not everything has been settled yet. So there's still a sense that there's some unknowns out there, and the markets always don't, what markets don't like are the unknowns, right? So every time a piece of that unknown becomes clear, the markets seem to either, if they like it, boom, they rally, if they don't like it, they step back, right?

But as you said, as the dust begins to settle, the markets look at it and say, okay, we know exactly what the impact's going to be, right? But as you said, as the dust begins to settle, the markets look at it and say, okay, we know exactly what the impact's going to be, so we're happy, right? But one of the numbers that came out today, I thought were, yesterday, as a matter of fact, the PPI came out, right? The PPI was better than expected

with regard to inflation, right? So, because CPI came out, everybody talked about how we had our 2.7 inflation rate, you know, it went up, you know, it went up and people were disappointed about that. Well, the age of stage was 2.6, there was 2.7. Right, exactly. And it's a devastating rise, but. Yeah, it wasn't.

Yeah, exactly. You know, and I think the problem too is that, in my opinion, it was more of a case that people were expecting that tariffs would shoot up inflation at astronomical rate, which hasn't happened. So that's the only positive you can take is that we're not suddenly sitting there going like, oh my gosh, like, look how fast inflation is rising. It's not rising to the pace that it was, was it three, four years ago? When it was forget it, like every month, it felt like it was the end of the world. Inflation time, it really it was, it was like it was going up, it was like 9% at one point year over year. Exactly. If I remember correctly. So it's like we're not we're not having we even reaching that. Yeah, no, no, no, it's been it's been going. Like I said, the PPI

number came out was a good number. So and you know, that kind of filters into the CPI. So hopefully the next CPI will be a good number. But the number that came out today was the retail sales, right. And what was really interesting is that the estimates to the actual were incredible, right? So from a retail sales month of a month, the actual was up 0.6, right? The estimate was up 0.1. So in other words, what most people accepted was going to be 0.1 price in retail sales, but it was up 0.6. Sales, x-autos, right? Month of a month was up 0.6. Sales ex-autos, right, month of a month was up 0.5. The estimate was 0.3, right, and the control group sales was up 0.5 versus 0.3, right, and what I thought was also interesting, it says 10 out of 13 categories posted increases fueled by motor vehicle sales,

which climbed after back-to-back decline. So also spending in restaurants and bars, which is interesting, right? Because you sit back and you say, this is truly a situation where the consumer is beginning to feel comfortable again and saying, hey, you know, I feel like things are getting better, right? I mean, certainly, I mean, the second quarter. To be honest, the summer usually is the time when I think people begin to start spending because you're starting to go out more

because the weather is warmer. Late winter, early spring is probably the lowest. Are you throwing water on the fire here, Amanda? No, no, no, no, I'm just, I'm surprised by the auto sale rise. I'm curious what your thoughts are. So what I think happened, I mean, part of it is, yeah, I mean, part of it is also, are there going to be tariffs on on the autos, right? And when is that when is that impact going to happen? But also, you think about what the markets that the first quarter, right? Markets were down the second quarter. I mean, the markets were up over 10% across the board, right? That's a big chunk, 10%. I mean, and I'm sure people

looked at their portfolios and all of a sudden it's like, wait a minute, I thought I was losing money. And now all of a sudden it's like, for the year, they should be up somewhere, you know, four to 6%. We've had this experience talking with some of our clients, and they call on that. And, you know, of course, in late April, they were down and they call again and be like, how's my farm make you up? And they're like, how can I be up? I'm like, well, no, actually, at this point, year over year, the market's actually up.

So you rebounded. But the perception is still that somehow the market collapsed and it's still in the gutter. So I think people are beginning to feel good again between what they're seeing in the economy, what things are happening, what they see their 401k or their brokerage accounts, they see that they've got an increase. And so I think just seeing that make people feel, like you said, it is the summer months and it's like, hey, you know what, this is the time to go out and enjoy life a little bit.

So I was very surprised but I was very happy to see retail sales be as strong as it is. So I think overall, you know, that's that's good news. But again, it's just it was just more, you know, making sure people are aware that there are some changes that will impact them from tax perspective. I think overall they're good changes and so try to take advantage of it. I remember I was reading something I thought I was gonna see if I can remember more in regard to a loophole. They said when somebody else takes advantage of you know a tax reform right they call it a loophole. When you take when you take advantage of it it's called tax reform. So there are you know there are opportunities out there tax-wise

that you should really think about, look at, and make sure you sit down with your tax person and say, you know, let's make sure we take advantage of what I can in order to reduce my tax liability. And, you know, it's not like you're hiding taxes, you're just making sure you use the appropriate, you know, tools that they've given you to reduce those tax burden.

Funny how you mentioned a little perspective thing because it reminds me, it's very similar to a famous quote Mel Brooks used to use. He goes, comedy is when you break your finger, tragedy is when I break mine. Which is very funny too because it's like if someone uses a loophole in the taxi, what a tax cheat. No one uses it. It's like, oh no, it was being smart. It's always the same thing. It's like in baseball, there was a whole thing with the torpedo bats.

It's like, oh no, they're cheating, you can't use that bat. But then once you find out your guy on your team was using it, well that's okay. He's taking advantage of the loophole. It allows us to do that. It's always a good perspective. But thanks, Pops, for being on with us. It's always a pleasure. This was fun. I'm glad we had Matthias on because it really gives us a good perspective. Glad to catch up with him. It's always great having him on. Always great having you here. We got you a little spiel at the beginning. What do people got to do after the show ends? Oh, they got to share and like and subscribe. Subscribe. There you go. You got it. Perfect. I forgot the little button. Yeah, exactly.

The little subscribe. Subscribe right here. There you go. The button. But it's always our pleasure being presented by our sponsors Emergent Financial Services, Matisse & Realty, Charlottesville Opera. Always a pleasure being here in the I Love Civo Studio. Always love having Judah behind the camera doing all the hard work. You didn't ask him any tough questions. You're supposed to do them. I forgot.

I know. I suppose the next time. I'm going to bring a list of these tough little stats that I'm going to have to bring up. Yeah, Judah, what what did the market do specifically from January 39 31st of you 1983 to you know? You know, but always great having Judah behind the camera always love all our viewers who kind of make this possible watching the show, liking it. Thank you for everyone who did. I always have to apologize when Xavier and I are on the show. We're not Facebook savvy, so thank you to all those who liked and watched. We look forward to seeing you next time, but until then, hasta mañana. Thank you.