The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Matthias John Of Matthias John Realty Joined Alex Urpí & Michael Urpí On “Today y Mañana!"

Episode Date: January 18, 2024

Matthias John of Matthias John Realty joined Alex Urpí & Michael Urpí On “Today y Mañana!” “Today y Mañana” airs every Thursday at 10:15 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Today y Mañana” is presented by Emergent Financial Services, LLC, Craddock Insurance Services Inc, Castle Hill Cider, and Matthias John Realty, with Forward Adelante.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Today y Mañana. I'm Alex. This is Michael. We're very excited to have you join us this morning on a cold morning here in Charlottesville, Virginia. That's why I tell people, I say, listen, January is usually, in my opinion, the coldest month Charlottesville gets. Maybe sometimes a little early February, but listen, we just bear down. Like you say, you get your hot coffee, you sit by the fireplace. If you got one, if you don't, sorry about that.

That's what you do. So you just gotta see what's happened. See what's out there and get warm. Perfect time to go ice skating, really. Exactly. You could go in any driveway or whatever and there's any little ice you could

ice skate. Well, I actually saw some kids sliding down a hill recently. The kids are out there enjoying the ice. I have a bad habit of every once in a while when I'm walking and on the gravel or granite whatever you call it, cement, every once in a while you get that black ice. For some reason I just have a habit of

I just want to put my foot there. It's just so slippery. It just feels weird. You just did one foot on it and you feel how like smooth and slippery it is. Yeah, but it does remind me of certain times. I remember when we used to go to college at PVCC and I had to walk from one building to the other and it was a long walk

and I had to kind of walk through all the parking spaces. There was one year where we had like a lot of snow and a lot of ice and I was literally walking there. Man, it was the whole thing felt like it was a sheet of ice. I was slipping a couple of times. I almost slipped. There were Man, it was the whole thing felt like it was a sheet of ice. I was slipping a couple times. I almost slipped. There were other kids who had slipped.

It was like it was really bad, but there was no other way to get to the other building. Oh, how interesting. Yeah, so that was not fun that day. I was kind of like, don't fall, don't fall, don't fall. Yeah, it must have been a bit of an adventure. But other than that, usually, I mean, every time I see ice on the floor,

I feel like I've got to go put my foot on it. Wow. Yeah, no, I feel it. Speaking of people, we complain about the cold we got Monica Miller from Montana joining us this morning good morning Monica what negative number is that today I mean I don't know what today is but I did like last week I mean you were talking like minus 22 minus 22 with a wind chill of minus 50 that's the kind of that's the kind of weather where people get the buckets of water and then they throw it and then it freezes midair.

I see what happens. Exactly. It's true. It's true. And I know, in fact, I know the funny thing is, though, I was thinking, you know, you don't do anything once that happens. I would just imagine, I mean, if I was out there in like 30 minus 30. You wouldn't even get out of bed. I would barely get out of bed, let alone leave the house.

But I was hearing my in-laws out there. They were like, no, everyone still went to the Walmart that was full of people in minus 30 with minus 50. Exactly, a nice little walk, you know, maybe do a little hike. Yeah, a brisk walk. We got a couple people joining us. Sabal and Wanda, thanks for joining us this morning. Bill McChesney, thanks for watching the show this morning. So already people tuning in.

They must know that later in the show we're going to be joined by Matias Young. It's the big event. It's the big event. That's why they're watching already. They know. They already know. So I appreciate we're going to have him on very shortly. Of course, thanks to Emergent Financial Services for

presenting. Thanks to our great partners, Credit Series Insurance, Matias Yon Realty, Castle Hill Cider, Forward Adelante. Thanks to Judah behind the camera, I Love Seville Network Set. Appreciate it, as always. I know it's been a while since you and I Yeah, and I know you wanted to talk about

just briefly touched upon the UVA basketball team. I feel like every time you and I are on, we touch a little bit about UVA sports. Yeah, because we follow it, and just every year, it feels like, I don't know, something's missing with every team. We're kind of like, oh, maybe this team will be better than last year's, and every year just doesn't seem... Yeah, a little bit of disappointment. I just think, I don't know how you're feeling, I think part of the challenge we're having this year with this team is just, I think the talent just isn't quite there.

How are you feeling? Yeah, in my opinion, I agree. I think the talent isn't what it needs to be. But I also think I'm kind of starting to wonder whether the game of college basketball changed, where there's more emphasis on actually just having skill players and people who can shoot threes.

And I know Tony Bennett wants to kind of keep his defense first approach, but I mean, it worked 10 years ago, but it just doesn't seem to be working lately. I mean, we're not in a situation where we were 10 years ago, where it's like, okay, we're constantly making the tournament, we're not in a situation where we were 10 years ago where it's like, okay, we're constantly making a tournament.

We'll get into the Sweet 16, but we're not winning it. Okay, at that point, you just hope for a year like 2019 where it's like you get the right pieces and then things go your way and you make a Final Four and maybe even win the championship.

But right now, I mean, we're not even getting close. We're getting beat. We're not in tournament position right now. We're like the 10th team out or something. Yeah, and it's just the defense is good, but it's not great, and the offense is just terrible. I mean, it feels like I think a lot of people feel the same way.

If it's not Beekman scoring, nobody else is really scoring for that team. Because they know other teams adjusted. They know that outside of Beekman, our one great shooter is McNeely, and he's been from the three-point line, but he's not exactly going to run to the rim and see if they just push him off the line. You need players who can create their own shot, and I don't think UVA has a lot

of that. And, yeah, I just think at some point there's going to have to be an adjustment from how UVA runs its team, because otherwise we're just going to be in the outside looking in at the tournament for a while. Which sometimes you have to do. I mean, you and I were talking, Nick Saban from Alabama retired when he started at Alabama in college football.

And the same thing just kind of happened there. It went from a defensive environment to a way more offensive environment. When he started, his teams were routinely number one defense, number one defense, number one defense, number one defense. And number one run game. That's all they cared about was having the big bodies in the defensive line. Basically, you can't run the ball against us. We have the best running back and best offensive line.

We'll just run the ball, and we'll beat you 17-14, 9 out of 10 times. Exactly. But you look at his later teams where he was still winning championships, offense, offense, offense, offense. He realized what was happening, and he switched. And you want to know what changed that. First of all, I think it was when Johnny Manziel, he wasn't a great regular season quarterback, but in college he was really good.

I think he won the Heisman too. There were twice when I think he beat him, and he just kept passing, passing. And Saban realized, he's like, wait a second, yeah, I got this great defensive line, but they're running outside, they're throwing these deep balls, our guys are getting beat. And offensively, Alabama just couldn't keep up. And then I think also when they lost that college football playoff to Ohio State, I think that kind of – Nick Saban took a step back and said –

Ohio State just chucked the ball. I mean, they threw deep. They just chucked the ball on them. And I think he said, wait a second, I need to reevaluate how I'm going to build my team. Yeah, defense is still important, but I need to find a quarterback who can throw the ball deep. I need receivers who can catch the ball and run. I need to find an offense that can score. And then you look at Alabama.

Heck, half the time they still have a great defense, but what's more important is their quarterback and how many points they're scoring. So I think, yeah, at some point as a coach, you may need to look and say, all right, what do I need to change? Even a national, I mean, Saban had what, four national championships when he decided to change? So it's not as though the fact that you've been really successful, it's not an indictment of you that you have to change. It's just a recognition that the landscape around may have changed.

Yeah, I mean, because you look at UVA, I mean, in the past five years, our best team was the one that was the most offensive team, really. We've tried to go back to our defense-first ways, but I just don't think it's working right now. And you don't want UVA to get in a situation now where good players maybe aren't coming now because, well, UVA's not good anymore. So, man, let's face it, we were in a pretty good position from a recruitment standpoint when UNC and Duke,

both their longtime, super their long-time, super-famous coaches, retired. But you don't want to get a scenario where now kids are still going to be like, well, you know what? I still want to pick UNC. Well, UNC has jumped up to number four

now in the country. Yeah. You don't want to get that scenario where kids start all over again saying, no, no, I don't want to go to Charlottesville. I want to go to Duke and UNC. Yeah, so it's a bit precarious right now. We've just got to hope that the team can bounce back,

maybe have a good showing in the ACC tournament. If they win the ACC tournament, they're on MacLean, aren't they? Yeah. Yeah, so there you go. That's our hope. There you go. ACC tournament, which it's been a little while since we won that. 2018.

It's been a while since we won that. It? It's been a while since we won that. It feels like since we won a tournament game, really. We haven't won a tournament game since 2019. Yeah. Wow. Since we won. Our last NCAA tournament win was the national championship. Man, that's a long time now.

Okay. Yeah. So I think, yeah, that's definitely a telltale sign that we need to maybe change things up. Make some changes. Absolutely. I don't know. Anything else on the – No, I think we talked enough basketball.

We should stop before we keep talking and then the whole show goes by. It's going to turn into a sports show. Exactly. It's going to be one of our lunch or dinner conversations where it's like the whole time goes by. We just talk about one thing. One thing. Because then you have it, it seamlessly goes another thing. We'll be like, oh, that's also like the cowboys, you know, they have to, and then suddenly

they think, you know, you're talking about an entirely different subject for another half an hour. It's just so true. So true. Monica says, yeah, it's minus one in Montana right now. That's a heat wave. That's a tropical heat wave there. A couple other people joining us.

Dr. Elizabeth Erpe, watching the show this morning. So she's tuning in. I think I saw another gentleman here tuning in. Just trying to make sure I say the name right here. I spotted him, and then he just peered on me. It wasn't Nicholas, right? I'm sure Nicholas is watching, too. Yeah, Nick is Nicholas. We were going to make fun of him.

Now we can't do it because he's watching the show. But we can transition to our awesome desk. I think that's still be great. Which is always a pleasure. So we're really excited. First time this year to welcome back to the show Matthias John from Matthias John Realty. Matthias, thanks for coming on this morning.

Thanks for coming on, Matthias. I'm excited to to be here and you just said the first time this year but actually it's been like three months that I've been a little bit right I took a break a lot of live events that happened November and December and now we're sitting here in the new year and it's celebrating. Matthias John And any good life events. Yes. Thanks for asking. I wanted to talk to you.

I'm currently walking around. I want to tell the world what happened. I'm a father. Congratulations. Thanks. That is very exciting. You can tell by the smile on my face. Can't wipe it away.

Yeah, December 21st, after several weeks of delay, our little daughter, May, decided to join us. And we are now proud parents. And it's our first child, so it's probably more emotional than it will be the second time or third time around or seventh time around. But the tenth time, it's just, yeah, another one. Well, you're joking. But my wife, she wants several children.

At least four, she says. And I thought leading up to our first child I thought let's revisit this and see how her opinion on the number changes but she still wants four well because the job is usually easier for the man than the woman

it's very quick for the man for the woman it's nine months absolutely Monika says this is in German. She says, Herzlichen Glückwunsch. Danke, Monica. Herzlichen Glückwunsch.

It means congratulations. That's right. I figured it was a German way of saying it. And it's a very nice phrase. But of course, when Americans try to pronounce it, it sounds very aggressive. I always noticed that with my wife, but of course when Americans try to pronounce it, it sounds very aggressive. I always noticed that with my wife,

because when I would get the little, when we visited Austria and I got the little German phrase book, every time I would try to say something, I'm like, oh man, this is such a harsh language. And then when I met my wife, when I met Elizabeth, she would speak German. I'd say a few words in German. Oh, it sounds so lovely and light. It doesn't sound like the way I thought it did.

Elizabeth also happens, like when she speaks German, I don't know if you've noticed as I have, that her voice tone goes up to higher. So, of course, that also makes it sound there. Because instead of being hello, it's hello. So now it's going up an octave. It reminds me of our aunt. Her voice is entirely different when you talk to her on the phone.

She has just like a normal voice. But then when you get to her voice, it goes, hello, this is Fran. Wait a second, that doesn't sound like my aunt. Sure, it varies from person to person. But a lot of people say it just sounds harsher as a language. And I remember when I was in college in Germany, I studied linguistics for a while, and we had this joke going around about the word butterfly. You know, butterfly, it sounds very poetic in English. In Spanish, mariposa.

And then in German, schmetterling. And in Germany, we don't often think about it. But since I'm here in the U.S., a lot of people joke about how German sounds. And I partially agree with it. It may be harder to woo people in Germany. You look like a Schmetterling. But it has its own quality to it that's a little different. But yeah, I'm sure it would sound much better

if Monito was here saying it in person than me doing it, but the sentiment is there. That reminds us of Xavier. I know Alex knows this whole story that my dad would write every once in a while, use Spanish words to describe my mom. And one time he called her credenza.

And my mom was like, beautiful sounding word. She goes, oh my gosh, what did he call me? She goes to the dictionary and meant table. Just in my dad's poet mind. The word just sounds beautiful.

It sounds beautiful. Why did he call me table? My mom tells a story about her and her mom. My grandmother were there half an hour trying to think about why he called her a table. Did he insult her? I don't get it. Why did he say that? And my dad probably didn't even think twice. I thought, it sounds good, so I'll call you a credenza.

That's amazing. But we're so excited for you. Thank you. It must be a beautiful thing. I'll bet you it made the Christmas and the holidays just even more beautiful to be celebrating. I mean, I guess May got her first Christmas four days in. Yeah, Christmas baby.

Yeah, I think you think about the timing, the pros and cons to being a Christmas baby. Sure, everyone is already celebrating and it's the slow season, you say, leading up to the birth, I thought it's going to be slow in real estate in December. You know, I'm going to just enjoy being around my daughter because the due date was December 2nd, and that didn't happen. She was delayed by almost three weeks. She just wanted to be close to Christmas.

But then I am not exaggerating. I was in the hospital with Martha Jefferson on the phone because of a real estate transaction. So, that slowdown didn't happen, and it depends whom you ask, because in my case, it

was busy, and I'm very thankful about it, but it shows again that things I plan in my personal life don't always work out that way. And then the difficulty of illnesses going around around Christmas. So we, our pediatrician told us to be careful and kind of distance but try to celebrate

Christmas with family, which we ended up doing, even though it was not the same experience, because we did have to stay away from relatives, always in a different room and so on. And you can guess it, we all got sick. We were cautious, but still. First it was me, then my wife, and we thought our daughter will, you know, dodge the bullet, but then she got a cold too,

and it's just always scary with a newborn. But, you know, everyone's healthy now. Oh, thank God. It was an experience. Her immune system is now right on right on track it's true the holiday season you just see it you know everybody it's hard to avoid getting sick

or getting something I just feel like I hate to sound like some sort of like crazy conspiracy but I just feel like sometimes the more you try to avoid it the more it ends up feeling like it's happening like it's going to happen there's so many people in my family always like trying to take every precaution not to get sick and then they get sick and then other members of our family

is like i don't care if i get sick or not and then they don't get sick i don't know whether it's a mental thing or whatnot but sometimes i just feel like you can't live in that fear just be like you know what it is what it is i i'd be cautious but you whatever happens, happens. I really can't control whether I get sick or not. Yeah, it's an interesting phase because we not only have to learn to be parents, but we also learn a lot about ourselves

and how we handle life situations. And having this baby, we had to really talk about how do we had to really talk about, you know, how do we want to socialize, be around other people, and trying to find that balance between safetyism and, you know, just being cautious, using common sense when being around people.

It's new for me every day again I'm like how do we prevent this baby from dying and then it's exaggerating right now but I'm learning about myself total transformation you now have such a vulnerable

responsibility well I've finally grown up. And I'm not implying that those that don't have children are not grown up. I had this conversation with my sister. I made this comment and she says, because she doesn't have children, no, so you're implying that I'm not mature.

Just saying I'm looking at life differently. It's different, yes. Yeah, you're living your life for someone else maybe more so than when you're single. More living for yourself. Speaking as a bachelor. Absolutely. So, I mean, speaking of the busyness,

so, I mean, December, it's true. A lot of people told me December was busier than they had expected. And I think, which's true, a lot of people told me December was busier than they had expected and I think, which it just it brings to mind that I know we often get asked this, right, when December, when January comes around, right, because people

have, I think, kind of this mindset and I don't know if it's similar in real estate as it is in the financial markets where when January 1st comes, well now it's a new year even though the market really doesn't it's not the market has a clock that like the stock market knows that it's december 31st and that states january 1st and i was at a reset i mean things major things can happen on march 22nd or september 31st 30th there is no 31st 30th right but there's always this thing of like okay what will happen in this year in the markets but sometimes i think what's kind of more helpful is

maybe what what are things that people kind of got in their head like oh it's a slow real estate market in 2023 that might not repeat in 2024? What are some things maybe that people should be aware of that, like, don't just assume that because this was the case last year, it's going to be the case this year also? Well, it's a lot about perception, I think, right? I don't want to sit here today and make predictions because that's just tricky to do. But I think what we didn't have last year was this momentum.

And that is certainly something we are sensing right now that we see. If you listen to the headlines, we hear a lot about decreasing mortgage rates. That has a huge impact on how confident people are about making that big move, that big decision. Well, moving to a different or relocating is not necessarily linked to mortgage rates, but just the confidence level of purchasing. And that's what I mean with the momentum. We feel like not only because it's the new year and people have plans and resolutions

and are looking forward to the spring, there's more confidence in the real estate market right now. And it's just also more feasible for most people to accept that burden of a high monthly mortgage. And it's just more feasible moving forward. But at least that's what we are sensing. And you as financial advisors, please feel free to chime in if you think otherwise. But it's already going a little bit below 7% right now.

Very different than 8%. Still not where we want to be, but there's optimism. Again, that might be because it's a new year. It's a fresh start. People sense that, but we are looking with more optimism into this year. I would agree. Even starting before the new year, I would agree. I mean, even starting before the new year, I would say we've had, since interest rates touched eight, mortgage rates touched eight,

and then from the moment they started coming down from eight and it was apparent that they might not go back to eight, you know, in other words, they passed the point where it had been two, three, four weeks since they had touched eight. We've definitely had more people that at least i would say at least three uh clients or potential clients who have asked have reset asked okay is this now a good time to buy and and when interest rates are eight no one is asking that question unless you have to yeah unless you have to exactly but i'm talking like people that were are renting and considering the change from rent to own

exactly right finally beginning to ask and saying okay is this can we begin looking if this is possible for me and at eight everyone just assumes impossible i impossible. I'm not doing it. But the last couple months of the year, definitely a little bit more along the lines of, is this possible for me? It might not be, but is it possible that I could actually afford to own? And I think it just changes. I think direction has a lot more to do with mindset

than the actual number. In other words, when rates were going up, people are like, I'm going in the wrong direction. But if rates are coming down, it's like, okay, I feel like it's going in the right direction. Speaking to a friend of mine who's a loan officer last week, and he told me that all of a sudden he has people reaching out to him about refinancing.

And I think last year he didn't have any of those, so maybe one or two. And so that was an indicator for him that things are changing. And even though I think just at 7%, maybe it still doesn't make sense to refinance, but it's probably the case. I'd like to know what your current rate is if you're refinancing at seven.

Right. Absolutely. Have you noticed, so I mean, that's kind of the buyer side. Have you noticed any change in sentiment on the seller side? Because we had talked earlier about the fact that obviously 80% of homeowners

in the United States are sitting on a mortgage rate of 4% or less from the last time they did it. So have you noticed any changes in the amount of people who previously said, there's no way I'm selling because I have to get a new mortgage at 8, to people saying, maybe I'll think about it? Yeah, I think generally speaking, the lower the rates, the more likely they're going to sell. And that's what we are all counting on. You know, the seller's incentive to sell is a big part of the conversation.

And so we are hoping that that will happen. But we also see, you know, people reaching out to us and at least discussing selling their home or listing their home already. People are at least strategizing already. And all those are good signs for maybe a very active spring market. If the rates continue to drop, that will happen. What do people typically do? I'm just curious because you said December was busy even doing some transactions.

But what do people typically do in your industry in that kind of January, February window when the spring market hasn't really become busy yet? They go on vacation. And things are a little bit different. You know, you have those patterns in real estate or let's call it the seasonality of

the market. You have a spring market and then people talk about a fall market as well. And then in between you have real estate transactions, it's just not considered the busy time. And then during the pandemic, those patterns didn't exist at all. And now, in the aftermath of

COVID, we saw that in 22 and then last year as well, it was not really predictable. It was just this constant, well, depending on which side you were, it was either good or bad, but there was less of a peak to be observed throughout the year. And this year seems to be similar because it's a very strong January. No matter who you ask in the industry, we are relatively busy compared to beginning of the year just five or six years ago. It certainly is different. And while that is exciting, it also shows that we have to be careful with our predictions moving forward.

Let's blend out the noise a little bit, the sensational headlines and focus on the facts. It looks like right now we're having a strong start of 2024. It's always how interesting that happens. We talked about it a time and Dave, and Xavier likes to say that history doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes. So in other words, things which appear to be always the same

are never quite the same. And it could be that, you know, for 20 years, you know, you had that strong seasonality, and then you might have a period where it's just not it's just not there there's something has changed which you you could point to 10 different things and think that each one of them might be the factor that has changed it but the result is that something has

has changed and you might still see seasonality it's not that seasonality goes away it's a flat line right but it's just it's different than was before, even if it kind of resembles it. And I think what plays a role specifically in this year is that a lot of people are sensing that the third and fourth quarter of the year might not be as advantageous as the first two quarters because of the elections. And again, it's more complex than that, and I'm not suggesting that lower interest rates are necessarily linked to the election coming up. But there are dynamics to consider, and I had several clients tell me that if they make a move, they want to make it in the summer or before the summer and probably not end of the year. And time will tell if that holds. But it's certainly interesting. And that's different to the previous

years, of course, because we have the election coming up. Exactly. There's always uncertainty, I think. We talk about this with business, that businesses change their behavior when faced with uncertainty versus certainty. It often pops up when there's going to be a tax law change when, let's say, there were several periods where tax cuts were going to sunset and so Congress had to

vote to reauthorize the tax cuts or else they would go up. You saw changes in business behavior in the year prior to because they said, I don't know what the taxes are going to be next year. And anytime there's like a short-term scenario where businesses don't know what's going to happen, their behavior changes. You do things this year that you might have waited for. And I think individuals can sometimes be the same. In other words, they say there is an uncertainty factor that's going to play in to the last two quarters of this year and the first quarter of next year. I might need to change my ordinary behavior because I don't want to be making major life changes in a period of uncertainty.

Right. So big decisions like buying a house or selling a house are not always only driven by interest rates, right? They are also emotionally driven. And so it's interesting to see how the psychology behind the world events, we know about the wars happening. There's a lot of uncertainty that we all feel to a certain degree, and that has an impact on the decisions we make.

You are financial advisors. Do you talk about this a lot? How much does the war in Gaza and Israel, for example, influence people's decisions in your day-to-day work? You've seen it with the individuals

as well. It's funny how you talk about the psychological effect, and that's very true. when you see how people decide whether they want to you know we've talked about it like save their money because they're worried about something in the future or

they're like no I want to go big into this sector because they want to be predictive about what might happen it's always tricky and you always have to kind of try to balance the line between you don't want to just be so afraid of what the future might bring that you don't do anything. But at the same time,

you also want to appreciate that people are nervous and uncertain. And like you said, elections are that. I mean, you, no matter how the election, the outcome is, there's going to be two very different ways the country is going to go.

And people are prepared. It's not like, well, it doesn't matter if this person wins or that person. No, it does matter to an extent. So you have to be prepared one way or the other. And that influences our decisions, whether it's investing or even buying a house. I don't know how Alex feels. And world conditions is your, let's face it, they talk often in finance about the black swan.

What is that thing that you can't know that is going to happen, that you can't foresee is going to change the markets completely? And so I think people see, even though it's funny, the definition of the black swan, of course, is that you can't know what it is. You don't know that it's going to happen. But just like people have always tried to predict when the apocalypse is going to happen, people are always saying, well, that war is going to be the black swan, or that war plus this thing happening in Europe plus China, if you put them all together, there's your black swan, and it's going to make the market crash, right?

So it's, like Michael said, it's balancing that concern and saying, okay, what can we do to be more cautious? While also saying you – at the same time, you cannot forego being involved. You can't just put all your money under the pillow because if the black swan doesn't happen then you just lost out on in other words people are always afraid you sit there and say i don't want to lose 20 right i don't want to have a minus 20 but in reality that is rather similar to losing out on a plus 20 percent that you've lost right the same amount and we've done studies that show um over a 20 year period if you miss out like if you were if you were not invested on like the 10 best days of the market like you just happen to miss you sold all your money and you happen to miss these

10 only 10 days your return your annual return drops by around three percent it went from like in s&p 500 13 percent a year to 10 percent a year it's sometimes even more drastic than that yeah just if you go for more days but and all you did was miss 10 days all you did was say i missed out on the 10 top days i was there for all the others but i missed out on 10 days and it changes dramatically. Well, speaking of black swan, I didn't mean to interrupt you, but, I mean, you could look at 2022. How bad a year was that for the market? And we also had two straight GDP negative numbers, negative quarters.

Exactly. And then what happens? Your mind could have been like, oh, 2023 is going to be bad. I mean, like 2022 is bad. 2022 might be worse. And in the end, 2023 ended up great for the market. It must have been up, what was it, maybe 22% for the year? And you can't sit there

and try to be predictive. You can be cautious, but you can't overreact. If I had told you at the beginning of 2020 that there's going to be a complete global pandemic, and the government will literally tell businesses to shut down would you have predicted that the stock that the tech sector would like blow up and your stock market return

from the bottom from the day the pandemic started in the middle of march through the end of the year would have the implications yeah it's interesting you would have said oh the stock market i'm going to sell everything and if you had you would have lost out on a massive return between March and December of that year. So it's just these things you have to, like you said, it's balancing the behavior with the fact that at the same time you want to, if your client is concerned about their personal circumstances, you take that into account and you maybe adjust the portfolio to be less risky. And probably, I would imagine, similar in other words, if your client is nervous, you may still say, don't let that make you not buy or not sell, but maybe there are things you can talk about to make that a less stressful process.

I've also observed that the reaction to world events or interest rates, they vary between the generations. Like we all have a similar age bracket, right? Well, you're slightly below 30, I think, but we are in our 30s, and when we hear of 8% interest rates, we think that is sky high, right? And not to downplay wars happening on a world level, but we perceive them as catastrophic as well, right? And so when I speak to older people, historically speaking, they say the 8% are not as bad as the 18 that they had in the 80s, right? So it's more relative to them. So I wonder what your father, who has been in the financial sector for decades. He says that. He does, yeah, his first home,

the mortgage rate on his first home was 15 and three quarters percent. So he just smiles when he hears the headlines. Exactly, exactly. Well, I think about it, at that time, not only are you sitting there with 15, three quarters percent, but you have to remember, i mean in in children's school you would have the what to do in the event of a nuclear strike because the soviet union

was still around and in the early in 1979 1980 so i mean it's true we sit here and not to downplay the wars that that are out there but there is no Soviet Union. Older generations grew up in the Cold War, which is far more dangerous than anything we have now. A massive nuclear war with a superpower. It's just not,

it's a different world. I will say what he says that's different, which I think played into a lot of the perspective now he said when the last time we saw interest rates at six seven eight right he said they had been coming down from 15. so you you you saw he said you kind of had this element of optimism like yes interest rates were seven or eight in you know the early 80s mid to late 80s but they had been coming down from 15 so people kind of had this sense of optimism and they had this sense of okay this is now my time to enter whereas when we saw six seven this time they had

been coming up from zero so there was this sense sense of, oh, my goodness, this is awful. I was at zero. Or my last, well, I mean, mortgages never hit zero, but like the base rate, the discount rate at the Fed had been zero. And we have clients that are sitting there like two and three quarters percent mortgages. And now they're sitting, now they're seeing six. It's, oh, my goodness, this is terrible. And so maybe this year what we're seeing is kind of's, oh my goodness, this is terrible. And so maybe this year what we're seeing is kind of that back to that 80s vibe.

In other words, yes, is six and a half and the potential for five and a half, is five and a half much higher than two and three quarters? Yes. But five and a half doesn't look so bad when we were at eight in October. So that kind of direction may resemble that late 80s field again to say, okay, yes, interest rates are still high relative to 2010, right, the 2010s.

But they're not as high as what I just saw four months ago. And it's a different scenario. It shows again, it's always about perception and perspective, right? And that reminds me of something I've been thinking about recently. And sure, we all have our resolutions for the new year, right? But I sat down with my wife and we talked about how, you know, what we want to do differently in the new year and how maybe our values have changed. We just like to write things down at the end of the year on December 31st and then take those notes out again the next year to see how plans have changed or, you know, our values might have differed. And obviously with becoming parents, a lot of changes came with that. But it also showed me my perspective.

Now, it doesn't hurt to sometimes re-evaluate a little bit because I noticed something interesting. I think it was last week there was a newspaper article in the Daily Progress about the owners, the family behind Arepas.

Arepas on Wheels. Do you remember? It was early of the year there was this really nice newspaper article about them where they interviewed them as well. And they talked about their journey, how they left Venezuela and came here. And actually they quoted them in that article. And I think it was her, the mother, who said

that Charlottesville is a noble town. I can't forget that quote. It's a noble town. And can't forget that quote. It's a noble town. And then she went on to talk about how friendly and nice people are and how it's the perfect place to raise a family. And sure, we always talk about how Charlesville is a great place. We know that. We believe in that. But, and here's the but,

you know, this year it's going to be 10 years, 10 years ago that I moved from Munich, Germany, here to Charlesville. And I noticed, and that's what I'm referring to, with that perspective and mindset change, that I've become complacent too. You know, I find myself complaining a lot about what's happening on this local level, this microcosmos that we have here in central Virginia. And sure, we all know we just have to go on Facebook or Reddit to

read the really negative quotes and opinions, and it gets really controversial, and it gets toxic sometimes. And I'm guilty of that too sometimes. I complain about the city council, right? We complain about things that affect us on a daily basis. And it's worth remembering how fortunate we are too. And that family moving here from Venezuela just

reminding us of what a great town and what a great society we live in. Beyond all the problems that we are facing, we all have struggles and the city of Charlesville certainly has struggles too, challenges that we face. But it was for me at least a reminder to, you know, perspective. I think it's a reminder that you can work to make things better while still being grateful for what we have. Our father says it about the country as a whole all the time. It's

like, yes, there's something, you know, it doesn't mean that there aren't things to improve in America, right? But he's like, he came from communist Cuba, right? And it's like, you have it, we have it so good here. You know, compared to where

so many people in the world have to grow up. You can work to change your communities here. In places like Cuba and Venezuela, you can't. It is what it is. You can't do anything about it. So it's just, yeah, you have to be grateful while working to help fix the problems, but to also step back, like you said.

Sometimes it takes that. It takes reading someone who came from some struggle to be like, yes, you know what? I'm lucky. I'm lucky to be here right now, to be in Charlottesville and to be where we are because not everyone is as fortunate. It sounds cheesy, but isn't that a nice transition into talking about 2024 in our area?

It is. It's the kind of thing you kind of need to be reminded of going into a new year. There's a great quote from G.J. Chesterton, a British writer from the early 1900s, and he said that the new year is

it's not about the opportunity for the calendar, it's about the opportunity for a new you. To see things in a new way and to improve yourself. To have a new you, to see things in a new way, and to improve yourself, right, to have a new soul? Does the calendar changing doesn't mean as much as have you improved as a person, and do you maybe see things in a new way? You know, and certainly having a beautiful baby girl changes the way you see the world. So Let me ask you this.

We all have made New Year's resolutions before that usually focus on working out and signing up for the gym and so on, but what are your plans or goals for this year? Pick one. Michael. You put me on the spot here, Matthias. My New Year's resolution was not to have any. This way, none of them can not come true. Does that count?

That's the citadel. I think it's lame. Oh, come on. I don't know. Come put me on the spot. I'm not exactly sure. I'd have to think about... I'd have to give a little more thought.

I wouldn't want to give out a bad answer and just something cheesy. For me, I try to focus... This year, I've have to give a little more thought I wouldn't want to give out a bad answer and just something cheesy for me I try to focus this year I've tried to focus and I can't really say it's a it's a new it's something that I just decided on in January it's more towards the end of last year I began to think that just making sure that in this kind of very technological age that I take the time to actually engage in more like creative things away from the phone and the internet so I realized okay because when I moved into a small apartment last year after getting married really my time reading playing the piano, writing,

very much kind of fell off a cliff. And some of it was just busyness. I mean, marriage, moving to an apartment, then buying a house and doing all these things. And so the busyness keeps you there. But then I also noticed that in those times in which I wasn't busy, your body just wants to say well let me do something mindless like watch TV or

click the internet or watch videos or social media I mean it's probably not good for today Mariana that I don't have Instagram on my phone anymore but it's been better for me you know but I think this year,

towards the end of the year and going into this year, I said I want to make time, particularly either in the morning or in the evening, to say, all right, rather than going straight to TV or internet, let me begin to do those things which I know I love to do, but which I've fallen away from a little bit of like reading an actual book and writing and actually playing in my instrument that I that I love because sometimes it's easy because they take a little more work and mental capacity and it's easy to just be sucked into the internet which requires no mental effort but once I do it I enjoy it once. Once I begin, I enjoy it so much. So I've been kind of working towards that.

I can't say it's a January thing, but it's kind of where I would like to grow in the new year. I think it will be good for mental health reasons too, right? There are more and more studies showing the detrimental impact on your mental health, you know, spending hours on TikTok, for example. No, it's not. Absolutely right.

Better use of time. I think that's a really good plan. What was yours while Michael thinks of his? You know, being a father makes me wonder that. How can I use my time better you know and and how do i how do i balance work and then and personal life and i don't think i've been doing a very good job um balancing this in the past um i sure i i work in the office all day, but then I still take work home and I find myself checking emails at 8 p.m.

Do I really need to do that? Would it be healthier? Now that I have another reason at home, my baby, not only my wife, my baby there too, to find a better balance. And so that's my goal for this year, to improve the separation of those two things,

to be more present mentally and away from work. And that's challenging, but we need goals to work on, right? And so that's the one for me. Yeah, it makes a lot of sense. I mean, I've read, it's funny, maybe just being entrepreneurs, as we are all in a sense, right? You do want to be there for your clients all the time, right? And there's that pressure to like,

I'm more competitive than the next time because I'm there for you and I will answer this email in 30 minutes and I will answer the phone at lunchtime, right? But I'll never forget, you call your doctor, who's probably, I mean, if you're calling the doctor, it's important, right? You could argue that your doctor

is probably even more important than your financial advisor or your real estate agent your health. You call the doctor and it's 12.30 and I don't know about yours but I point out they're on lunch break and they're like yeah he'll call you back

when he gets back and it might not be it probably won't be today. And we accept it too. And we accept it because we say oh it's an emergency and we accept it too and we accept it because we say oh it's important but yeah he needs his his lunch break yeah right and so but it's in a way that i think there's a pressure as an entrepreneur to not do that as well but in reality there are times when you can be a better you can serve your clients better if you aren't worn out by checking their emails at 8 p.m.

It's finding that balance of being there for your clients, but also making sure that you have your own life, too. You're not a slave to them. Yeah, it's difficult. I pride myself to be good at communicating. And as you said, that's our job. Maybe it's one of the main aspects of what we do as entrepreneurs is to be available to answer questions and to be great at communicating. But where is the cutoff line?

What time is acceptable to not answer to the email anymore? And I don't have the answer yet, but I'll have to find out. So that's my resolution. But it sounds like we all have similar aspirations for 2024. I think so. But I'm looking forward. I think you have to go into it with a positive,

as you are, a positive aspect. These are good things that can happen. And yes, there's going to be challenges, as you are, a positive aspect. These are good things that can happen. Yes, there's going to be challenges, but you can't worry about them. You can't let it affect you in a negative way. That was a nice closing statement.

Thank you. I appreciate it. I appreciate it. Yeah, no, it's been good. I always enjoy these conversations. It's just, we talk about so many different things. Yeah, with Matias, you even just go beyond just the business part of it, just the mental part. And I enjoy just kind of like the entrepreneurial side, but also just kind of, I don't know,

a relaxing time to just talk about our thoughts and our feelings. It's almost like a psychiatric session a little bit. It's our monthly meeting with Matthias. It's like a therapy. Therapy, there you go. It's the weekly group session. Exactly, exactly. But why is there a camera?

That's not appropriate. Yeah. Therapy session. Judith's kind of like our therapist. She's like, hey, do you need notes? Yeah. And everything we say, he's like, okay. This was a little concerning.

We're going to have to check back on that. Why did Michael not have a good answer to that question? But we've got a couple, and we still have people joining us. Howard Gorton, thanks for watching. Griff Shawsey, thank you for joining us this morning. Lucrecia Morales, right here, sombreros on the downtown mall, like in the post. Appreciate that.

Really appreciate everyone who tuned in this morning. Really appreciate having you on. It's always a pleasure. Remind, as I've been speaking, it's been a little bit, remind the viewers, if they are seeing things change, or they're like, okay, I really do need to reach out to a realtor to talk about that. What's the best way to get in touch with you? Best way would be just to text me or send me an email.

Call me. Most people prefer email or text. And let's just have a conversation, right? It requires a lot of discussion and planning and strategizing, but that's what we're here for. So I look forward to that. And I will say from personal experience that it's good, it's always good to talk even if you're not immediate, right? If you're not saying, okay, I want to put my house for sale next week.

It's still good to talk to someone like you to just begin to that strategizing and understanding what goes into it. It's not as though you have to be like, okay, I'm ready to buy tomorrow. Let me pick up a phone and call a realtor. You know, you can do it even if you're like, this may

be something I'm thinking about in the next month or so. Right. So, oftentimes those phone calls come with a sense of urgency, and it's emotional for most people, but I think it's our job as professionals to take the rush, the hurry out of the situation a little bit and just make it a smooth experience. And also tell people that, you know,

we might want to start talking about it right now, but it doesn't mean that we have to take action tomorrow already. You know, it's just starting a conversation. And that's what I believe in. Exactly. It's just starting a conversation. That's what I believe in. It's been an absolute pleasure. Thanks so much for having me. It's always great to have you on.

Next week, we're going to have some more great guests. We're joined by Ben Bettler from Creamboat Farm. As well as Jesse Belovance from Killer BG. It's things that you use for Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

It's like the apparel and the things you need to actually do it. So maybe Jesse can bring some stuff you put on Xavier and we get you to put the camera in the thing and he tries out some moves? We'll see. We still haven't gotten Xavier get him to dance, so we'll see.

We can actually get him to do Brazilian jiu-jitsu live on air. So that'll be a tricky one. But appreciate being here with you. Thank you for having me, Alex. It was a great show. You know, we did say maybe one of our New Year's resolutions is to have lots of shows with myself. And enjoyable ones. And if we keep having Matias on on then we know that will be the case

we know we'll have some enjoyable shows that really just we learn a lot and have a great time so really appreciate it really appreciate everyone who tuned in and watched this morning I think I also saw someone from as far as like we had from

New York all the way across to Montana joining us this morning. We spanned almost the entire U.S. We spanned the U.S. this morning. So it's been, really appreciate all of you for tuning in. Thank you all so much. We look forward to seeing you next week. Thank you Judah, behind the

camera, making us look good. Thank you I Love Seville Network. Thanks to Emergent Financial Services, Matthias Young Realty, Castle Hill Cider, Craddock Series Insurance. Thank you all. We look forward to seeing you next week. But until that time, as we like to close it out, hasta mañana. Music