The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Neil Williamson Joined Keith Smith & Jerry Miller Were Live On “Real Talk With Keith Smith!"

Episode Date: November 6, 2024

Neil Williamson, President of Free Enterprise Forum, joined Keith Smith & Jerry Miller on “Real Talk With Keith Smith” powered by YES Realty Partners and Yonna Smith! “Real Talk” airs every Wednesday and Friday from 10:15 am – 11 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Real Talk With Keith Smith” is presented by Charlottesville Settlement Company, LLC, El Mariachi Mexican Bar & Grill, Fincham & Associates, Inc., Free Enterprise Forum, Intrastate Service Co and YES Realty Partners.

Thank you. Welcome to Real Talk with Keith Smith. My name is Jerry Miller. Thank you kindly for joining us on a historic Wednesday morning. 2.30 or so in the morning, the announcement was made that Donald Trump will be the President of the United States of America in what is, I would call, the most divisive race in American history. We're going to take a spotlight or take a look at this race from a real estate standpoint, from a Charlottesville standpoint, an Albemarle County standpoint, and a central Virginia standpoint. Donald Trump at 78 will be the oldest person to ever win a U.S.

presidential election. Donald Trump will be the first president in 132 years since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms in office. This was an extremely expensive race to win, the most expensive one in American history. And before I welcome Keith Smith and Neil Williamson to the program, as Judah Wittkower, our director, gets the shots ready, a lot of questions I have, including what the role of Elon Musk will be. I think you have to ask this question, and I had this conversation on the downtown mall before walking into the studio with one of the heaviest of heavy hitters in this community. He will remain nameless. He made this comment, Elon Musk right now in a position of being the most powerful person in the world with what he has from a war

chest of money, the ownership of Twitter, and how he positioned Donald Trump to win this election. A lot to cover on the show. Judah Wickhauer, studio camera, Keith Smith, and Neil Williamson. Neil Williamson, it's always a pleasure to have him watching our shows and in studio, the president of the Free Enterprise Forum, trusted voice in the community. Keith Smith, the trusted voice in the community, the star of Real Talk with Keith Smith. Wednesday morning. Keith, where do you want to begin? Yeah, so first and foremost, I want to thank everybody for a last-minute pivot. We're moving our show from Friday to today. We felt that this was important to kind of move it around. So,

Neil, thank you for the 7 o'clock in the morning text and you guys early this morning text to go ahead and pivot and do this. What I wanted to tackle today and just kick it off, okay, right now we've got a Republican president, we've got a Republican control of the Senate. Depending on who you talk to, the House could potentially go Republican. And housing and affordable housing in particular was a key discussion in this electoral season. So I wanted to kind of kick off right now. Now we know they've got the White House and they've got the Senate. Is that going to make a difference in housing, and what impacts can they do?

It's a big question, but what impacts does the— How about this question for Neil? What do you make of all this? Why don't we start with that one? Sure. Well, first and foremost, I'm reminded of airplane wearing handsome. What do you make of this, Nick? I can make an airplane.

Thank you. I want to remind everyone also that I run a nonpartisan organization. The Free Enterprise Forum does not have a political ideology. We are anisan organization. The Free Enterprise Forum does not have a political ideology. We are an advocacy organization, and we have said again and again, elections matter. Does the airplane reference your little levity? Little levity.

I have to say that I am incredibly encouraged this morning. Huge turnout. Not just the turnout. There was a decisiveness in this victory. Most of us around the table, I don't believe, thought at this moment we would know the answer. No way.

Yeah. And I think that as a nation, voters spoke. Whether you agreed with them or disagreed with them, they spoke. And early this morning, I was watching John Meacham right after the call was made at 530 by the networks. And he said, look, if you're in favor of democracy, you must be in favor of democracy when you lose. And John Meacham is a political historian who also advises the Biden campaign, so you know where his politics are. But it is a real eye-opener to where we are and where we're going. I think that another friend of mine, Joe Thomas, former radio gentleman folks here,

now with WTON, he said, you know, we don't disagree about what the problems are. We disagree about the solutions. And I think that's going to be the discussion here today. I have never in my 20 odd years in this seat seen a presidential campaign have so much attention on housing. Oh, yeah. And it's important to recognize the import of housing to both housing, rental housing and housing ownership to the economy. What's good for housing is good for the economy, both your own personal growth in equity as well as the nation. Well, we could talk about the state, right? Because Lisa Steravant, head economist for Bright, sat in your seat, I think it was last year, and said the number two, if you take housing as a whole, is number two in the GDP, gross domestic product, for the state of Virginia behind the

government. The government is number one. It was interesting. I was working yesterday thinking today we were going to be talking about the comparison of the policies between Trump and Harris, not knowing who won at this particular point. And I kicked it off, and thank you, Jerry, for bringing it back a little bit simpler. But what does this mean to housing? I mean, you're a housing policy guru. In your opinion, is this going to make the market better or worse? What does it look like going forward? These are all the questions that kept me up.

Literally, I got a half an hour of sleep last night on where we're going as far as housing is concerned. You should caveat by saying this. If the Republicans take the House, if they control the Senate and the White House, if they take control of the House, how could that impact housing? I think it's important to recognize where federal government impacts housing. Your zoning code is determined by your locality. Your zoning code is driven by your comprehensive plan in the state of Virginia. The federal government has no role in that. That being said, the federal government can encourage certain things.

Back in his first term, Trump was very big about, I want to save the suburbs and the single-family housing, where people were suggesting was being eliminated, when in fact what was happening was they were allowing duplexes and triplexes to occur. He's also talked about cutting red tape and referring building permits and zoning laws that prevent new housing developments. What can he really do at the federal level to make those changes? That's what I want to talk about.

That's what I wanted to get on the table today because yesterday I was watching this. There was a bunch of Facebook posts and X posts and all this stuff that this is going to impact us locally. That's simply not factual. Now, let me get this out. I want to push back on that. Go ahead. Let me get back. But he can control the purse

strings and that could impact the zoning. He could, you know the the the particularly the house well he's already said he's not going to uh reappoint your own pal uh yeah so wait i think the conversation must start i could i'll get out of the way you guys are you guys are the experts i'm just a pace setter it's got to got to talk with rates here right isn't that how that's going to impact housing locally here yeah of course you know well the T-bill is not showing it right now. It's going up to 10 year T-bills going up, which is unusual.

It's fascinating when you talk about how is it impact locally rates. The rates are going to impact it nationally. Yeah, correct. Nationally, you're also going to see if tariffs come forward on products that are necessary to build a house, housing prices will likely go up. Scott Morris yesterday on Facebook, Ross Mortgage, said if it's a red wave, this was before the results started coming in, he said if it's a red wave, expect rates to go up. Mortgage rates.

Yeah. Mortgage rates have been going up. And I would say that's the number one factor right now with a quick sand real estate market in central Virginia. I have to say that supply continues to be a significant factor. But supply has uptick though. Supply has uptick slightly, but not prices. If you look at the... Yearover-year 3%, I read the car report, year-over-year 3% Q3 uptick in values, median values. Year-over-year, all of Virginia compared to central Virginia, the car footprint, car median price is 8% higher than the whole state. Yeah. You cannot look at this year over year because if you take a look at some of the charts that we've done before on the show going back to 2016, we're way, way, way, way below historic averages as far as volume goes. Look, this is not a simple solution to this.

This was not – there wasn't just one silver bullet that got us into this problem there's not going to be one silver bullet to get us out of it and rates will help but and i i'm on neil's side of the house on this if we don't figure out a way to increase inventory and that's kind of how i wanted to kick this off so if if the feds can't really influence local jurisdictions to approve projects other than holding the purse strings. What other influences could they have to increase inventory? Qualifying income for a household to be able to afford the typical price of a home right now is six figures, according to Jessica Luntz, Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President for Research at the National Association of Realtors. That can be really impossible to imagine for someone who's a schoolteacher.

Yeah, you'd have to have two schoolteachers and plus a third person. Or delivering pizzas. Delivering pizzas and doing third jobs and fourth jobs. Again, you know, Robert Liberty, there's not a silver bullet, there's a silver buckshot to this. Does he get a dollar every time you say that? He should. He should. It's been used quite a bit.

Angela. I send them bottles of wine, literally. Angela Moberly very much encourages Neil Williamson to follow what's going on in Culpeper County with protecting property rights. I'll happily pass along the message she sent to me and Keith to you. She thinks it's right up your alley. I appreciate that. And as one who did work for a number of years in Madison County, I'm very familiar with the Culpeper market. And in looking at our new world since probably in the last 10 years, You have a number of folks that are commuting from Culpeper County one or two days a week to their jobs in the metropolis of Washington, D.C.,

Ashburn, Fairfax, all of those hubs of high tech are saying two days a week is good for us. And folks say, I'll drive for two days. It's a fascinating piece of the real estate market. He's absolutely right. A lot of folks watching the program. Bill McChesney, thank you for watching the show. Kay Gano, thank you for watching the program. JJ Koepka, Seth Agunaga.

I'm seeing a lot. Ray Cadell, I'm seeing a lot of folks watching the program as we're fresh out of this election news. Ray Cadell, as a realtor who's made a 40-year career helping mostly first-time homebuyers, our market makes it absolutely impossible for first-time homebuyers. Travis Hackworth watching the program.

And they're doing great stuff out in Danville. Shout out to that. So back to, you know, I think, you know, a lot of folks were saying maybe this election was about, who said it's about the economy, stupid? James Carville. James Carville.

Right. You know, I think this is about inventory at this point. Rates are going to spike, but I think in the beginning of the year they're going to come back down when they get settled in there. We shall see. If this 10-year T-bill keeps on climbing, rates are just going to keep on climbing. That's just the way that's going to go. Markets hate the idea of uncertainty.

Elections are all about uncertainty. We're coming out of an uncertainty period. So, Jude, I know I said I wasn't going to do this to you, but did you load up those files I sent you yesterday? So in my preparation for what I thought we were going to do, Trump and Harris, who got elected, slide number two. So this is from sources from Fox News and CNN. The core philosophy, to everybody's point, Trump is going to focus on free market, minimize federal involvement, promote private sector solutions, and reduce housing regulations. Versus Harris, Harris would have been focused a little bit more on governmental intervention, equity, increased federal role in affordable housing, and addressing equity.

Look, I had a phone call with the executive director this morning of the land trust coming in. I've been having conversations with them for the last 12 to 24 months that we need to as an organization prepare for looking for money to come for the affordable housing nonprofit other than the government. Start looking into the private sector and we've been slowly making grounds to that. That tempo is now going to get picked up because I think if Harris would have got elected, we would have seen a lot more of this subsidy and all this kind of great stuff. It would increase prices, in my opinion. I don't think it would have done anything to increase inventory. But if Trump starts cutting whatever regulatory requirements he can on that,

you know, we'll see if it filters down. But that's how they're going to approach this from my perspective. Comments coming in quickly. Mike Plecker, Shando Valley's finest backstops, one of them. He says, the housing market is as much psychological as it is practical or financial. Buyers and sellers in all markets can and would make money and create wealth no matter when they buy, depending how long they own the home. Even people that bought homes from me when I started in 1995 with rates at 8.5% have created a huge amount of equity for themselves in buying and selling since then. But what creates excitement

and action in a stagnant housing market, which we're in right now, hope and a sense of financial security is what gets people off the fence. Look at the markets today. The Dow is up over 30. Is that an all-time high? That's not just the wealthy getting richer. It's teacher pensions, public service unions, pension funds. It's the mutual fund holders, the retirement accounts.

The hope will build the market, and it will shift again. He calls it a stagnant market right now, the real estate market. But he highlights the hope that could come from being at a stagnant market right now, the real estate market, but he highlights the hope that could come from being at all-time highs right now. But how does that translate to the street, right? You've got a buyer who can't find a home, right? There's nothing available in that price point. I get it. You know, what we do for a living, frankly, is kind of on the therapy level. We try to help people manage this. But, again, I won't do this to Judah by going through the slides.

I've researched a bunch of resources. So the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, regulatory reform, possible actions, provide grants and tax incentive for zoning reform. So the only way they're going to do that, I think, is grab the House. Because if they don't grab the House, I don't know. You're talking the Dems. No. I'm talking about the Republicans. Okay. Okay. Okay. So I'm talking about how can Trump do regulatory reform and have it impacted here locally. And it's to provide grants tax incentives for zoning reform.

Remembering, zoning reform is handled at local level. 100%. Take a good hard look at the various localities of the region and check yourself regarding which parties kind of control those boards. All right, perfect segue then. You set this up perfectly for me to throw it back to you. Donald Trump convincing victory, popular vote. Even Virginia was very close, closer than a lot of people anticipated. I think it was like 200 and some thousand votes. There was a point there. Separated Trump and Harrison, Virginia, ladies and gentlemen.

He wins battleground states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina. I mean, significant swings here, folks. So this is a question, and you know where I'm going with this. How does this cycle influence next year's cycle? We're on the Board of Supervisors. Three seats are up. Ned Galloway and Diantha McKeel, who ran unopposed last year, or last term, last cycle. Jim Andrews in the Samuel Miller District is up for grabs as well. We would think all three would run again. Time will tell.

I'm fairly, very, very confident that Galloway's going to run again. And the city, Charlottesville, Brian Pinkston and Juan Diego Wade are up for re-election. Juan Diego Wade made the announcement that Brian Pinkston was going to run again on WINA, much to the chagrin of Brian Pinkston. I would imagine Juan Diego Wade's going to run again.

And then we've got a governor's race. Any way you want to go on this, Sir Neil Williamson? Well, first and foremost, welcome to Virginia. We love elections. We have them every year. I like it, though. Well, it's fodder. It's fodder for a talk show.

And we do not allow our governor to repeat themselves consecutively. Now, the reason that will never change is because the entire General Assembly awakes every morning and looks in the mirror and sees the next governor. So I think it's important to recognize we have right now one strong announced candidate, Abigail Spanberger, who is retiring from Congress, who has fairly high name recognition. Extremely high. And federal experience and CIA experience and DOD experience. And if you look at history, Virginia tends to swing back the other direction from the presidential election.

So when you saw Biden elected, you saw Governor Youngkin elected. Now, Youngkin's race was not a huge embrace of Trump, but it was not a declaration that he is not Trumpian. Well, Youngkin's race and his victory, more of an indictment on how McAuliffe managed his campaign and some of the things McAuliffe said when it came to parents in public schools. That a gaffe to be remembered times three a gaffe to be remembered and i think that but i think that if you go back again another four years you'll see the exact same swing virginia likes to be a little bit contrarian in the following year um i think that this bodes well for miss spanberger's campaign uh i think that things were leaning that way Ms. Spanberger's campaign.

I think that things were leaning that way anyway. Virginia went Democratic in this election, even though it wasn't by as large a margin as some would think. I would anticipate when we see the first polls out of the various universities, you will see a lead of about 10 points right out of the gate. Michael Guthrie and Paul McCarty are getting the mix here. Guthrie, let's push it back a little bit on you. Zoning reform only works if we find ways to get people to develop properties with affordability in mind versus profitability. Paul McCarty, in response to Guthrie, these are agents of significant experience here.

The idea that builders and developers have to decide between affordability and profitability is a losing battle, Michael Guthrie he says it needs to be profitable profitable to make affordable homes and paul mccarter is doing a development project down avon extended as we speak so um help create chaired vice chaired the regional housing partnership look in order for this to work everybody's got to be at the table the the for-profits, the non-profits. But, you know, at the end of the day, Paul is somewhat right. You know, what does it take? A ready, willing, and a...

Nothing happens absent a willing property owner. Yeah. So, but I do want to take... Feet's on fire right here, fellas. I do want to take a moment, right, because you kind of alluded to something about our region and kind of the way it's swaying. So I'm looking actually at the map for the presidential election. So other than Albemarle and Charlottesville, which is blue, every other jurisdiction that surrounds us is a bright red, right?

So to your point, these local boards for every jurisdiction around us leans to the right, whereas the local boards and the local city council leans a little bit to the left. Yeah, but if you take Charlottesville City and Albemarle County and you total the population in Albemarle County and Charlottesville City, that is the lion's share of people in central Virginia. Except, how's Greene County going to do with new construction coming up? The new construction that's in the pipeline that's already been approved is going to be significant.

Those numbers will be in the neighborhood of 300 units a year for the next five years. And then after that? After that is the next question. Yeah. And where is the water coming from for that? I had a very good conversation on Sunday with someone who shall remain nameless who suggested

that they agreed that the water supply plan needs to get built. And now we've got to fight about how to fund it. That's a fight worth having. But if we can get everyone in Greene County to agree that it needs to be built and needs to be built now...

You don't have a choice. You do have a choice. But DEQ says build it or lose your permit. And needs to be built now. You don't have a choice. You do have a choice. That's true. You do have a choice. But DEQ's kind of. Well, DEQ says build it or lose your permit. Yes, exactly. And so that's your choice. And I think that right now there are four, if not five, votes on the Board of Supervisors to move forward.

They just need to figure out how everything sequences. So the reason I wanted to jump in on that, regardless of what happened at this election, I know this because this is the world that I live in, people are not looking to do developments in Albemarle and Charlottesville. They're looking to the other jurisdictions around that for two reasons. We have clients in the remodeling space

that have notified their clients and the clients that are on their calendar for next year that we will not be doing any more remodeling space that have notified their clients and the clients that are on their calendar for next year that we will not be doing any more remodeling projects in the city of Charlottesville, period. Because they don't want to deal with the city. There you go. They literally have told their clients on the calendar next year money that is on the horizon that we're not doing your jobs.

Can you tell me why? Think about that. I don't have my $18,000 back from 2017 from four homes we built on Nassau Street, meaning the land trust. Keith, you sound as bitter as Jerry's kids when they found out there was no Krispy Kreme donuts at the election station. They were very upset, especially our oldest. I seduced him with a glazed Krispy Kreme donuts at the election booth, and now it's just the stickers that are being given out. Do you remember when the donuts were given out?

I never got a donut. You never got the donut? I got the donut growing up. Maybe it was just the Williamsburg thing. Let's say your opportunity for a little zing there. I'm sure it's coming. We're at the halfway mark of the show. Well, I think it's important to recognize

all of these local impacts are important, but this is a federal position. That's exactly right. And so when we look at the federal level, what was the number one or number two issue that Donald Trump ran on, Jerry? He ran on immigration reform. He ran on deep tax cuts, Donald Trump. He ran on tariffs.

So immigration reform. Yeah. And what does that do to the labor market? Oh, it shrinks the labor pool. It absolutely shrinks the labor pool. And I'm surprised this hasn't come up with the tariffs that he's proposing. How is that going to make – that's going to make things more expensive. It's going to make things more expensive here. It's putting taxes on imports here.

How's that going to impact housing? How's the immigration reform going to impact housing, as Neil highlighted, from a labor standpoint? I mean, these are very real conversations. You go to a job site, you see, you're seeing a lot of Hispanic workers on a job site. Now, the question also is, there's

been some discussion of removing Fannie and Freddie Mac from federal receivership, and just taking away those protections. How do you think that will impact the market? You want to touch that one? Yeah, well, there goes your 30-year mortgage. You want to touch that one, Keith?

No, I do not want to touch that one. Look, I think at this point, you know, we're doing a lot of what-ifs and Monday morning quarterback on it, and, you know, what I wanted to focus on, and this is a great conversation, is that one, and I wanted to get this out there publicly, the feds have very little impact on how we can impact on our local housing market

other than, and I'm looking at- I want to push back on that. I'm looking at the Fulvana County budget at the moment, and I was trying to do this live to find how much money comes from the feds. You might know this off the top of your head, Neil, but when you start looking at these local jurisdictions, how much of the percentage-wise of their budget is from the feds, and if the feds are controlling the purse strings,

and if the feds are saying, if you don't do zoning reform, we're going to tighten those purse strings, I think you're going to start seeing some shifting. We've already highlighted that an election like this is going to fuel the fire of next year's election cycle. That's safe to say. But that's always the case. It's not always the case that you have a man like Donald Trump win the White House. Oh, well, it's historic, right? Yeah. This is what?

Three straight presidential cycles that he's been in the mix here. I mean, this is going to be my – our son, when he gets to AP U.S. History, will have multiple chapters about Donald Trump and AP U.S. History. He's already in AP? No, no, no. He's in first grade. Okay. He's learning some one plus two. All we know is he's pissed about his no. He's in first grade. He's learning some one plus two. All we know is he's

pissed about his donut. That's all we know. He did wake up, interestingly, and say, who won the race? That was the first question he asked me. Really? First question he asked me. But we also know that what happens in this election and the Senate and the House could go a long way in determining mortgage rates.

And I want to highlight the impact of rates here. Michael Guthrie jumping in the mix. Nothing against the people profiting. I'm saying there needs to be an intentional effort to buy property with affordability in mind. For example, Carlton Mobile Home Park or the last plans brought to the city with the new zoning ordinance in mind have no affordable units in the plan. Well, it's interesting. One of the ideas that has come forward from the Trump campaign and also from the Harris campaign is to free up more government, federal government land for housing. If they did that and perhaps donated it to, I don't know, a land trust, that might be a way to dramatically impact housing affordability. And as the recovering developer and builder,

and to play a little bit off of Jerry's comment and your comment, well, if everything else is getting expensive and it outpaces the value of land, the land may not be as beneficial as you think. The reason I know this is we're looking at a couple of projects where we got land at, my God, a pretty reasonable price in Charlottesville and because of the

three units and above rule that they have and all the 6,000 square feet I got to do a erosion control plan and all that stuff, we're probably not going to be able to afford to do that project because at the moment... Why don't we chalk up the NZO, the new zoning ordinance, as so far so far 10 months into the mix is really potentially backfiring

that's not the problem really tell that to the hotel yeah tell that to the project next to the omni hotel where the developer from the heirloom building on west main street who built apartments next to university tire literally told media that i can't do multifamily on the downtown mall because of the new zoning ordinance. Exact words from, was it Jeffrey Levin? Right? Exact words from him. Can I finish? Sure.

Thank you. So it's not the zoning ordinance. It's the other side of the coin, which is the site plan side and the subdivision side. That is why this is, there's some work that has to be done on the zoning i get it zoning side but that's really not what's causing this problem you talk to roger you talk to the land trust we're looking at stuff and sitting down with engineers and stuff like the cost to meet those requirements which is not in the zoning, this is something that was written post that, is ridiculously expensive.

Neil, jump in here. Let me finish. 25% of new construction. Red tape. And I think you're going to see this in the beginning of next year, that number being about a third. Yancey says, wait till you see cost of goods increase significantly because of these tariffs. Significantly. Neil Williamson, where do you want to go with that?

The question is, is he really going to do it? That's the real question. I think the answer brings up a good point. I believe that the zoning ordinance, because I believe, Brian Pinkston, it's a living document. Well, it's time to give it some CPR. Oh, I would agree with that. Because right now you're required, if you are over nine units, you are required to give 10% affordable housing, and that 10% must remain affordable for 99 years.

99 years. That has created a freeze on development over nine units. 99 years is the long, Neil Williamson highlighted this in the Free Enterprise Forum, longer than the life cycle of the housing being built. That's insane. So in Europe, typically they build for 100 plus years. Here we build for 25 years, 50 if it's a really well-built house. So the life cycle of a home is between 25 and 50.

Travis Hackworth, there needs to be specific targeted tax credit programs developed to target housing development like the HTC program to encourage affordable housing development. That's the only way you're going to start winning the battle of affordability versus profitability. We talked about this on a previous show because you've asked me which plan was the best, which forced me to dig into this. So thank you very much for doing that,

Jerry. To me, you've got to smash the both together and take a little bit of both and move forward. Is that going to happen or not is a different story. Well, you know, so much is coming in here. The local zoning ordinance is a living document, and, yes, it needs to be tweaked. But if you do not dovetail it with the site plan side, whatever you do to the zoning isn't going to make a damn difference. They agreed the implementation on the site plan as well as the building permits. Now, right now, Albemarle County is launching a new building permit processing platform. Here's news for you, and you're going to hear it from Albemarle County in the next couple of weeks. From January 1st through January 10th, all permitting will go dark. From January 1st to when?

January 10th. All permitting will go dark. How long does it take in Greene County? It's two weeks. Yeah. You know how long it takes in Vervanda County? About a day. Two days maybe at the most.

For a building permit. Right now, Albemarle County. How long does it take to get a CO? About a day. Two days maybe at the most. For a building permit. Right now, Albemarle. How long does it take to get a CO? I don't know the answer to the CO question. Albemarle County permitting has gotten better, but it's incredibly inconsistent. Charlottesville has gotten worse, and it's also incredibly inconsistent. So for the real estate people that are watching this, and if you're helping new construction homes and you're trying to close on it,

when you say permitting the other side of that is co so that same timeline applies to certificate of occupancy so guess what you can't close right and they will be handling inspections and certificates of occupancy between the first and the 10th but they chose the first and the 10th for good reason that that is typically slow period slow period coming out of christmas rather than doing it over christmas when everybody's trying to close those things for end of the year i don't know about that is typically a slow period rather than doing it over Christmas when everybody's trying to close those things for end of the year. I don't know about that. I've got a couple of new construction projects going on.

You've got 10 days that you need to worry about. No, so what they're doing, the Stanley Mortons of the world and all this stuff, what they're doing is they're trying to push the closing to the end of this year. Right, and they were in the room when this was revealed. Comments coming in extremely quickly. The show's on fire, as we expect it to be on fire um do you want to touch on expanding and and you and i respectfully i

respectfully disagree with you but multiple folks are asking you to expand upon the development area and the five percent this is something you champion all the time well we are talking right now about the federal election this afternoon at about 2 30 albemarle county board of supervisors is going to have a discussion of the growth management plan nowhere in that discussion are they going to talk about page 62 in their capacity analysis now i know i may be one of 10 people who read 63 page report but on page 62 it states from their consultant that they need to consider expansion of the development area nowhere has that been discussed and we need to expand the development area. There was a discussion of at the meeting last Wednesday of the CACs, which by the way I think should be disbanded.

It was an all CAC meeting. That's the community advisory committees. And there was a discussion of swapping out. Not all of that less than 5% is developable. Right now, there's about 7% of the 5% that has developable or redevelopable land, according to one of the studies that Albemarle County has done. Jesse Rutherford, Chris Fairchild, hello. We've got some supervisors watching the program. How did that developer incentive program go? Well, right now, we're still waiting. I understand Mr. Galloway may be on the show sometime soon, and we can talk to him about that. He's willing to look at anything because it's a living document. But currently,

the regulations around the developer incentive program are too high and need to be brought down on the front end, not by negotiation. Keith, your thoughts on that? Yeah, so none of this is surprising to anybody who watched the show. Look, the 5% is not the 5%. It's not the 5% because the topography doesn't allow for development, and it also includes commercial within the 5%. Diantha McKeels made the point while sitting in Neil Williamson's seat, until the 5% is at capacity, why would we expand the 5%? So has anybody done an analysis of how much the capacity is on the 5%?

Yes, 7% is what they're saying. There's 7% available of the 5%. I am a Marine. You confused me because you said 5%. No, no, but that's a great number. I get it. It's a good number. It's a great number.

But the question is if it's – that is controlled. Say that slowly for me. 7% of the designated development areas are open for development. So he's saying 93 is that capacity of the 5%. Or not developable. Or not developable. But this is a government-created scarcity. And I'm sorry, Econ 101. I'll push back on that. Sure. Push back, sake of a talk show, and I sincerely sorry Econ 101 I'll push back on that

push back, sake of a talk show and I sincerely believe this it's not a government created scarcity it's what the electorate wants when was that done? that's absolutely true it's what voters want voters don't want more growth

more sprawl that's why you're here. You're having fun, right? First off, the development areas were first contemplated in 1971. There you go. It was greater than 5% at that time. We had villages of Earleysville and other villages, and those went away. We also had extreme buffers and other things.

It's what the electorate wants. Golly, that's a fair question. Guess who doesn't vote? New homebuyers. Guess what's good for the electorate? Increasing housing prices. Guess what the electorate wants? Affordable housing.

Where do they want it? Not in my backyard. And they don't want to pay more taxes. And they don't want to pay more taxes. I can push back on that. It's Keith's talk show here. I think that whole thing went out the window the first couple of minutes. So push back.

I don't think the residents of Albemarle County, if you polled the... There's no doubt about that. They don't want more housing. Albemarle County doesn't want more housing. That's the problem here. The problem is we don't. Nobody wants this around them. They don't want more housing.

We continue to have people come here. But they want affordable housing. They come here. They come here. They spend four years at UVA. And they love the place. And they stick around. Okay, there.

That's a sink to me. That was right. That's exactly what I did. Almaro County doesn't want more housing. So what are we going to do? No, no, no. And then they're looking at places like Williamsburg and you're paying $1.05, $1.10 on the real estate rate.

First time this year I paid more dollar-wise for my taxes in Fluvanna County. We know that. Fluvanna County doesn't want more housing. Nor does Green. Chris Fairchild's watching the program. He said on this show, no more housing for

Fluvanna. I get all that. The only locality that I think really generally wants more housing, is it Louisa? No. Louisa's board is definitively shipping. You're saying no more housing in Louisa? I mean, I'm going to ask a man who attends a fair amount of meetings and talk to that. We can ask a man to my right

that attends more meetings than anybody. There goes the counselor Snook right there. All the jurisdictions that surround Charlottesville and Albemarle County, maybe Nelson might be receptive to it, but you can't develop there, frankly. Bill McChesney, Mayor of McIntyre. Look at how much commercial space is vacant. Let's focus on the existing shopping centers before we build more housing. There he goes.

There he is. Perfect for you. Perfect. Well, you see, some time ago, the Free Enterprise Forum put forth a resolution of intent. And that resolution of intent was to allow, not incentivize, residential in commercial. So what does that mean?

That means some of these squat buildings that have lots of parking around them and that are currently vacant could be converted to houses. Now, people say, well, that's really expensive. Well, it's less expensive. It's under three stories. And it's always in the development area. It's usually near the services needed. And right now, I have nobody on the board championing this idea. Yeah, that's extremely outside the box.

But if you go ahead and look, Richmond, for instance. I'm in Richmond all the time. My little business is expanding. I'm in, my daughter lives on the West End. We go to, come on, where's all the breweries at? Scott's Edition. Scott's Edition. Every one of the old industrial complexes are converted to housing.

Carly Wagner, does Neil have an opinion on where the targeted expansion should or could be? Does he envision them being immediately adjacent to the current development areas, expansion of boundaries? Or does he envision them seeing adding new islands of growth? Topography can be overcome, but it's at a cost. Look at all the site work Greenwood Homes has done by the water tower on Berkmar. That's tons of site work for a really small number of homes. Costs of those homes will go up as a result. Green and Fluvanna need water before we build more housing.

Carly Wagner, you are the best. She should come back on the show. Fluvanna County, the permit's been issued. They're building an intake of about 400,000 gallons of water. It's going up to Zion's crossroads, and that's probably going to be within the next 12 months. They're going to be the rock star of at least water goes.

The rest of it is a different story. Neil's thoughts on Carly's questions. Carly, I don't care. I don't care where they want to do it. I just think they need to do it. And expand it and allow. I encourage you to read the lasagna model on the Free Enterprise Forum blog.

Allow a transitional area of two-acre lots. Maybe even put a gate up if you want a gated community. I don't care. We have Western Alamaro schools. We have Crozet schools that are so overbuilt with housing. Old Trail and Crozet have been so overbuilt. I know it's a designated growth area that kids are learning in trailers. They're learning in trailers.

Why is that? That's state law. Because you don't build a school until after you need it. That's state code. So let's back up for a second. So thank you, gentlemen, by the way. That 5%, right, just to change, let's be real here, right? They're talking about it at the board level. To actually, a couple of board of supervisors have discussed when they would be willing to

discuss. That does not mean talking about it. I think Neil Williamson tweeted about that, don't you remember? Yeah. I turned that into a day's worth of content. So let me try this a different way, Neil. I'm going to try to be the sales guy here and turn this around a little bit. When was the last time that was even discussed at the board level, at that level? So the fact that it's at least came across their lips is one thing. But how long do you think from today, from this conversation, before that even is remotely possible of being implemented? How many decades do you think that's going to take?

It will take 10 years to do a decade to do the work necessary, both on the concern I have. And get approved. And get approved. Are we betting a mustache or something on this? I don't believe that I'm going to bet your mustache on anything. I believe that I'm in the process of reading a book about the housing crisis, and I'm coming to the place where I'm starting to believe the participatory governance of land use is part of the problem. Carly says, Neil, voters care, though.

If you want expansion of development, you are more likely to get it done by having a proposal of areas that voters can get behind. It matters. I agree, and voters should decide. Break that apart what you just said prior to that. What I said prior to that is that the idea, and we saw this. That's a big idea. It's a really big idea that the participatory portion of land use decisions, that's where you have public hearings, you have community meetings, and all the rest, is a hindrance to housing. And why is because people that live here don't want housing.

I don't buy that. You just said people that live here don't want housing. He's making this argument. This is the argument that Neil's making. I put it very in simplistic terms. He's saying that because people can speak before government, they're going to offer a nimby, not-in-my-backyard perspective. And the people that cannot support new housing are the ones that don't live here. So how are they going to speak before government if they don't live here?

That's basically what you're saying, right? Let me put an example to what he just said. Let me push back a little bit. We saw during the NZO discussion in Charlottesville a large number of residents in Charlottesville pushing for more housing. So it does cut both ways. It's just not often. Are we talking livable Charlottesville? We are. Okay, I wouldn't say livable Charlottesville is a large number. I would suggest they were persistent. Yeah, I think it's an organized number. I don't think the other is a large number either. I think they're persistent.

Some of the same people that were there in 1979 when the Albemarle growth area were developed were at the meeting with the all CACs. Isn't this fun? This is so much fun. We're all having fun here. Can I chime in? Please. Thank you. I would encourage the lawsuit that's happening right so much fun. We're all having fun here. Can I chime in? Please. Thank you. I would encourage the lawsuit that's happening right now. I know you're chiming in here. I'm sorry. There's so much I want to cover here. What's happening

in Arlington County, was it Arlington? The new zoning ordinance was shot down by a judge. Shot down by a judge. Right now it's in the hands of what? Judge, is it Worrell? It is Judge Worrell here. Judge Worrell. Interesting thing that's being sent to me left and right by those in opposition of new zoning ordinance

is Judge Worrell has a partner that's significantly close to the NZO advocacy. Has a partner that has championed the new zoning ordinance. And these same folks are saying he should recuse himself from this decision. And has not and he hasn't made a he hasn't made a decision yet which is odd can we help with that no i'm waiting for with keith smith thank you yeah keith smith my daughter was just texting me and said this is not your show yeah i'm only kidding this is good this is what i wanted this is what the 7 o'clock in the morning text to everybody was about is to have this debate

by the way, this debate we're having isn't America awesome? don't we live in a freaking awesome country? absolutely and I know that, I'm going to get a little down on it I know this first hand because I lived 6 years under communism where we couldn't have this conversation that we would have been shot at our tables so I'm going to get that out out there so we're doing great let's talk about green county

let's talk about so you're suggesting that you want to remove the public involvement in a rezoning process i'm suggesting that we should re-examine the process. Okay, got it. What are we going to do? We're going to follow the lead of the Greene County Board of Supervisors? I want to do an example. Who said screw the Planning Commission? I want to do an example on Greene County, because this is your hometown. I know a little bit about a project because I'm connected to it in a certain way. Back to there was 12 people that shut down a rezoning in Standardsville for 500 units that was the buy-right density that the developer would have provided $10 million worth of water infrastructure right out of the box.

These 12 people convinced the Board of Supervisors not to do that. Let me finish this, if you don't mind. So now what's happening is it's a buy-write project. They're getting the $500. Because of state law, they have to provide this subdivision water. They have to do it, right? And, oh, by the way, they're going to get no money from it, other than the $15,000 connection fees or whatever. So there was an opportunity here to work together, but instead there was a small group of people that said, no, this is how democracy works.

Convince the board of supervisors to vote it down against the planning commission's recommendation. And they're going to get this project in green County and the County citizens are going to pay for the water. And you know what that's called? Democracy. But what about that's called? Democracy. Supervisor Pruitt, hello. But what about all the people that supported it?

And that's the problem. The problem is the people that supported the project, and I know this firsthand, all came out after the decision was made. What do you think about this, Neil? Elections matter. There you go. So that revolves back to your point about how this current thing, the election that happened last night, is going to impact the local elections.

I think it has significant impact in Central Virginia. I don't think it will, actually. Significant impact. I think the jurisdictions around Albemarle and Flavena will stay red. Excuse me, around Albemarle and Fulvana will stay red. Excuse me. Around Albemarle and Charlottesville will stay red. Charlottesville and Albemarle County will stay blue. I don't think that dynamic is going to change. I see more people considering getting involved in politics.

Oh, yeah. I see a greater voter turnout. I see more potential candidates. I hope so. I see interest rates being impacted. I see cost of goods being impacted. I see cost of goods being impacted. I see a labor market being impacted. All these things are going to impact housing. I went around yesterday to the local polling, because I worked from home yesterday,

to the local polling places in Flavena County. And if Chris Fairchild is watching, I was thinking about a dear friend of ours that passed away that was very active. Anyway, Bill Yusef was his name, former Marine, loved him to death. I have attended and done this very thing since 2000 for every election. I've never seen the lines like this. So that's just great news. People got out and they voted. Chris is watching.

Right? And they did their civic duty. I mean, it's freaking awesome. Lonnie Murray, hello. Lloyd Snook, hello. But if you think, I don't know, if you think two years from now, well, we've got elections next year in all the counties.

Three. We have a... Half of the Board of Supervisors in Albemarle. Half the Board of Supervisors in Albemarle. 40% of the council. So you're thinking Albemarle. 40% of the council. So you're thinking that's going to, Albemarle County is going to flip red. I'm not saying it's going to flip. I'm saying we're going to have more people voting and more candidates considering running because of what happened with Trump.

Over the next 90 days. They decide. They decide. Yeah. Whether they will run. These are the conversations that are being had at Thanksgiving and Christmas tables. Elections matter. What else matters?

Candidates matter. Contested elections matter. Nat Galloway, unopposed last cycle. Diantha McKeel, unopposed. And you mentioned he's watching. Mike Pruitt attended an event that I moderated, and he chastised the fact that he ran unopposed in Scottsville. Unopposed.

He said that's a doggone shame. It is. We should have this discussion of issues, and to that I give Mike Pruitt a lot of credit. Absolutely. And Pruitt watching, I'll say this. Mike Pruitt is an attorney that's a housing advocate. That's what he does, right? He fights for fair housing.

He is trying to push new thinking on the Board of Supervisors as it applies to housing. And I don't always agree with Mike on those things. I agree. And one of the things that I did not agree with, one of the things that I didn't agree with Supervisor Pruitt was the rent stabilization, the rent control. understand why he floated it because in his district cavalier crossing displaced a lot of people when an out-of-market buyer bought what was essentially the step above affordable housing affordability but that fizzled out that did but did you notice at the charlottesville city council when that issue came up there was one member of city council that also voiced concern about that idea lloyd snook right right the most moderate you would say, on City Council, Lloyd Snook.

And he would push back and say, I'm a proud Democrat, Lloyd Snook would say that. But he is the most moderate of the five. So, good thing, bad thing, what happened yesterday, Neil? What do you think? I'm thrilled that we did, the polling places that i visited were organized and were well maintained the volunteers that were uh passing out ballots were all in their contained areas civil civil yeah i i honestly thought this could not have been better run for the five voting precincts that I visited. That being said, I am thrilled that there is a decisive victor because that makes things clearer.

And democracy, as quoting Meacham, democracy matters whether you win or not. Democracy matters. The voters have voted. Let's make America be the country. This idea of make America great is much more like a more perfect union. Building toward a more perfect union is something that is nonpartisan. We can do better, and we can make housing work. So if you flip through legacy media, and I'm going to play off of this a little bit because I did the same thing. I went to all these polling places in my county. And, you know, Flauvena, pretty much very red, right? It's a red county.

Everybody was cordial to one another on the line. They were having conversations. They were being friendly and neighborly. Nobody was talking about who they were voting for or anything like that. But everybody was cordial. They were happy to be there, happy to exercise their right to do it. So, you know, I don't think we're as loggerheads as everybody on legacy media wants you to think we are. I don't know. It was my observation.

I believe ideologically there exists a difference of opinion to how to solve the nation's problems. That is, I think, a fact. But isn't that what makes America great? I think finding the solutions that we can agree on and getting them done is what makes America great. It makes it great that we sit around and have this conversation and do that. But back to my original question. We've got a Republican president, a Republican Senate. Let's assume we have a Republican House, because I just looked at it. It looks like that's the way it's going on that. Can they write what I believe is the housing crisis that we're in, write that chip? Do they have the authority and the ability to do that and do it quickly? Well, to quote Robert Liberty, That's two dollars.

Hold on a second. I need to buy a manila wine. Hold on. I'll go any further because I'll forget to do this. I ship them wine every time I do this. They don't have the ability to completely right the ship. That being said, they have the ability

to make a difference. And they can make a difference on the positive and they can make a difference on the negative. I've always said, and people disagree with me, that presidents get more credit and more blame for the economy than they deserve. But that being said, I also agree with the, I think it was Yancey that said, there is a perception. It's a reality. Perception is reality. And if we believe that we're coming into this great time, it generally happens. That's Michael's point.

Mike Plecker, yeah. Yeah, I think that it is critical that we come together with the elected folks and get to work. So you think that, I'm reading my notes from preparing for it, do you think that we're going to see a continued increase in rental construction or that's going to pivot to ownership now? I think that you will continue to see rental in some localities, but in others it will pivot to a condo rental option. But I think that it'll depend a little bit on how, I mean, there are so many things that

are outside the quote housing bubble. When you look at the Trump tax cuts that are going to be looking to be made permanent, that is going to have an impact on the housing market. I think it's important to recognize. I think that, again, the market appreciates certainty. They know what those tax cuts were. They saw what it did for the economy. They have a feeling that taking them away would be bad. And so I think the market has already baked in that those tax cuts are going to be made permanent. And I tend to think that's probably good for the economy. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has now climbed to 7.13% today.

And how much was it when you bought your first house, Keith? My IQ, 18. How much was the house that you bought when you got your first one, Keith? $125,000. Are there any $125,000 houses in Central Virginia? Absolutely not, but that $125,000 house now is worth $350,000, $375,000, something. We need to highlight that. It's important to highlight that.

Have wages kept up with housing appreciation? No. Okay. I was also making at that point, like to your point, I was doing three jobs because I used to be a federal police officer. I actually was being a police officer at night to offset the bills and so forth and so on. But it was brutal. I was happy to get it. Couldn't get a VA loan, believe it or not.

That's sad. Pardon? That's sad. At that time, it was very different than it is now. Phenomenal show. What's in the Hopper Free Enterprise Forum? Let's take a plug for the Free Enterprise Forum. freeenterpriseforum.wordpress.com

or freeenterpriseforum.org. We are in the process of, we'll be speaking this afternoon in a couple of hours to the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors about page 62 in their development review and ask why they're not focused on that. And I really think we need to also talk about this word crisis.

There is a movie that Jerry liked, The Princess Bride. I love The Princess Bride. I knew he did. I really did. That had this quote where it said, you keep using this word and I do not think you know what it means. And this word crisis, I think they're misusing. I really do. You keep using this word, and I do not think you know what it means. And this word crisis, I think they're misusing.

I really do. And I think that if it's really a crisis, I think that we need to look at how the comprehensive plan and then the zoning are helping or hurting that housing crisis. Robin Wright, Fred Savage, Billy Crystal. Good stuff. Fantastic. Don't forget about Andre. Yeah, fantastic movie.

Fantastic movie. Keith Smith, any closing thoughts? Other than what I started, thank you for the last minute pivot. Thank you for the last minute pivot. I felt this was an important conversation for us to have the day after. Andre the Giant. The day after.

Thank you. Real quick. Good thing, bad thing, or neutral about what happened yesterday for housing? The American people voted. That's a good thing. There you go. Came out in massive numbers. Judah Wickhauer behind the camera.

Thank you, Judah Wickhauer. Neil Williamson, president of the Free Enterprise Forum. Keith Smith of Real Talk with Keith Smith. It is going to be a lively week of content here on the I Love Seville Network. And please visit realtalkwithkeithsmith.com and support the partners on the partners tab. Thank you.

Without them, we would not be able to have this fun. Hour and 12 minutes, the I Love Seville show. Thank you. So long, everybody. That was absolutely fantastic. Thank you.