The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Pandemic Continues To Influence/Change Virginia; Virginia's Metro Areas Are Losing Population

Episode Date: January 31, 2024

The I Love CVille Show headlines: Pandemic Continues To Influence/Change Virginia Virginia’s Metro Areas Are Losing Population Central Virginia Migration Stats From 2020-2023 Louisa Co: 7.5% Population Increase Since 2020 Louisa County Is 3rd Fastest Growing VA Locality How Will Population Changes Impact Schools, Biz? UVAs Darden School Ranked #1 (Public Schools) Notre Dame at UVA (-12.5), 7PM, ESPN2, 115.5 O/U Read Viewer & Listener Comments Live On-Air The I Love CVille Show airs live Monday – Friday from 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm on The I Love CVille Network. Watch and listen to The I Love CVille Show on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, iTunes, Apple Podcast, YouTube, Spotify, Fountain, Amazon Music, Audible and iLoveCVille.com.

Good Wednesday afternoon, guys. I'm Jerry Miller. Thank you kindly for joining us on the I Love Seville show. We are live in downtown Charlottesville, about a mile from the University of Virginia, hop, skip, and a jump away from the police department, the courthouses, the hedge funds, the attorneys, the bankers, the judges, the law firms, the police department, the courthouses, the hedge funds, the attorneys, the bankers, the judges, the law firms, the downtown mall, and really in the heartbeat of Charlottesville here. In fact, we just saw Mayor Lloyd Snook walk by the program again. He frequently walks by the studio come launch of the show. Walden Cooper's got fantastic data that I want to cover. It was released, it was published January 29th, two days ago, by Hamilton Lombard. Hamilton Lombard is excellent at what he does.

He's a fantastic squash player. His exact title is Estimates Program Manager. He began as the Estimates Program Manager for the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. His expertise is in demographic change, particularly the different components of population growth and decline, population estimates, school enrollment projections, and the effect of government policy on population patterns. He earned a BA in history and a BS in planning from the University of Virginia. Interesting tidbit on Hamilton Lombard was also, I believe,

in fact, I know, a walk-on football player at the University of Virginia on the defensive side of the ball, a hard-hitting safety. Today, we're going to discuss his story on the slowing population growth of the Commonwealth and how the landscape of the Commonwealth is being transformed post-pandemic. Whether we want to admit this or not, we still do not understand the impacts and influences the COVID pandemic will have on humanity, on human behavior, on social behavior, our children. That's the one that makes me the most nervous.

And Jude and I will do our best to succinctly summarize Mr. Lombard's research on the Wednesday January 31st edition the last day in January of the I Love Seville show you give me a thumbs up if you could

when those two graphs are ready to go in fact if you just have one graph ready to go, I'd love to put it on screen. This was put on my radar yesterday by John Blair, who's watching the program right now. Interestingly, John, and this speaks to the viral nature. You have it ready to go? Fantastic, Jude. This speaks to the viral nature of social media you're following and us amplifying your tweets. Had roughly half a dozen people. Let me count. One, two, three, four, five, eight people, in fact, asked about the retweet I did of your content yesterday.

And John's always getting us thinking on this program. I want to weave you in on a one‑shot, Jude. Do you have a one‑shot ready to go for that? In fact, don't go with the one‑shot. Why don't you go with the first graph, the population change graph, and you give them a summary. Give me a thumbs up when that graph is on screen. This is from the Weldon Cooper Center. You got that graph up? Okay, give them an idea of what's going down with this graph, the first graph. It's population change, first by Virginia, United States, South Atlantic, and Mid-Atlantic. So basically there have been some serious changes in how people are, where people are living.

And a lot of people have been obviously leaving places like New York, and they've seen an especially large number of people leaving urban areas for rural and suburban areas. And the changes have been rather drastic. And we haven't seen these types of changes sometimes since, I believe, World War I and earlier, there's just been a massive shift in where people are living. Charlottesville, for example, since 2020, from 2020 to 2023, has lost population.

And I think you can put that on screen. This was, in fact, part of John's tweet from yesterday. And from 2020 to 2023, and I'm sharing this with his permission here. I've got a lot of respect for the man. Charlottesville's population has decreased by 341 people. During that same period of 2020 to 2023, Albemarle County's population has increased by 3,393 people. And Louisa County has increased by almost 3,000 at 2,981 to be exact. Interestingly, Tammy Purcell,

she is a content creator, Tammy Purcell. I follow her on Twitter. She does a hell of a job covering Louisa County on her Substack, the Engage Louisa County newsletter. She's fantastic. Tammy Purcell,

2Ls.substack.com Tammy Purcell.substack.com. Someone let her know I'm giving her props on this show. She tweets yesterday, according to the latest estimate from UVA's Weldon Cooper Center, Louisa County's population has now broken 40,000 people. As of July 1, 2023, Louisa had 40,434 residents. I'll give you that number again. 40,434 residents per Weldon Cooper. The county's population has grown 7.5% since 2020, making it Virginia's third fastest growing locality.

The third fastest growing one, Judah, Louisa County. I want to, and Judah does, both of us are going to unpack some of this information and get your take. It's clear population is migrating away from major metros, specifically Northern Virginia.

Yeah. It's clear we still are feeling the, maybe you call it collateral damage, maybe that's not the right word of COVID. Maybe it's the influence, a rate of change. Here's the, it wasn't World War I, it was the Civil War. Both Virginia, between 2022 and 2023, both Virginia and the U.S. grew by less than half a percentage point. For Virginia, this is the slowest it has grown since the Civil War.

Some of the slower growth has been the result of death rates dropping only slowly from pandemic highs, while births have not rebounded since falling in 2020. In Virginia, there were less than 13,000 more births than deaths in 2022, a big drop from 27,000 more births than deaths in 2019. People aren't having kids. Which is surprising. Why do you think it's surprising? Is it because people were on lockdown where all they could do is boom shakalaka? Is that what you're alluding to?

I think that was the assumption. A lot of people thought that with the lockdown, with people having nothing better to do, yeah, people would be spending more time in the bed with their significant others. But how do you, okay, you see it from that side, but how do you birth babies when you're on lockdown and unable to meet potential significant others? How do you date during COVID and the pandemic when you were restricted to your house, you're wearing masks, you're covering your face, which potentially diminishes sexual attraction,

sexual attraction potentially diminished, and you being locked out in your house, how do you then get to first base, second base, third base, and to home plate? Those are good points. You know, the initial thought was maybe the couples would be birthing more kids because they were in the house more. But if you unpack that, if you're in the house more with your significant other, do you grow alienated more from your significant other? Because you're spending more time with your significant other.

Unpacking it further, how do you meet a significant other if you are wearing masks, staying in a house, and consume with screen time because you're fearful of a COVID pandemic, of COVID-19. Further unpacking it, the cost of living has gotten extremely expensive across the country. I mean, hell, Harvard just released a study that 50% of Americans, 50% of citizens in the United States, according to a Harvard research study, say they cannot afford rent. Yeah, that's nuts. That is nuts.

That's why the acronym dual income no kids, DINCS, has gained such significant popularity. Yeah. So we're going to look at this Weldon Cooper study here. Louisa County, the third fastest growing jurisdiction over the three-year period of time in the Commonwealth 2020 to 2023. Charlottesville over 2020 to 2023 has lost population by, according to Weldon Cooper, 341 people. In that same period of time, Albemarle has grown by 3,393 people. Augusta County has grown by 1,003 people. Greene County has grown by 685 people. Louisa by 2,983 people. Green County has grown by 685 people. Louisa by 2,981 people. Nelson by 204

people. Waynesboro by 580 and Stanton by 434. Fluvanna, 981 in growth. John says talk about a donut hole in a sea of growth, Charlottesville City. Why the donut hole in the Sea of Growth?

Viewers and listeners, your thoughts on the Wednesday edition of the I Love Seville show. What is your take? Before we get to the viewers and listeners. I mean, without having more data, I would think... You have plenty of data here. We read the data. We have significant data.

We have significant data for takes. Don't mean to interrupt you here, but this is all the data you need. We've got professional demographicers providing us data in concise fashion. Okay. I mean, I spoke to you earlier about the fact that areas outside of our own are actually building housing. If we're not building housing, then perhaps what's getting built here or not getting built is being bought up but not necessarily inhabited. I'm not sure I'm buying that.

Just a thought? No, and I appreciate your thought here. So you attribute population's decline, the city of Charlottesville's population decline to a lack of housing opportunity? No, to specifically a lack of new construction in housing. Yeah, perhaps in part. I think that if people are coming in here and buying up properties, potentially for the purpose of flipping them or turning them into Airbnbs or tearing them down and, like you've said in the past, waiting for the plan to go through, then that's acreage that's not getting, you know, not having people. But those people are still renting the houses. What's that?

They're still renting the houses. If they're purchasing property, it's not like they're not allowing people to live there. They're still renting the houses and still providing it as an opportunity for people to rent from them. And from the Airbnb piece, I think the Airbnb supply is still a very marginal percentage. Does it impact housing in Charlottesville? Yes, but extremely marginally. I think one of the reasons Charlottesville's population is decreasing and the very first thing we should highlight is the cost of living in Charlottesville's population is decreasing and the very first thing we should highlight is the cost of living in Charlottesville. Yeah. That would be the first reason that Charlottesville's population is highlighted. It's no secret that in compared to Louisa County, which is the third

fastest growing jurisdiction in the Commonwealth from 2020 to 2023, according to Weldon Cooper, Louisa is significantly more affordable than Charlottesville City. In fact, if you look at, and can you put it back on screen, this one that we talked about from my LinkedIn DMs? Louisa, Green, every single one of these is more affordable than Charlottesville. Even Albemarle had population uptick. And Albemarle's cost of living perhaps is on this list the most synonymous with Charlottesville. But what Albemarle has going for them is much greater supply and housing stock. I think you are seeing folks, in fact, we know this, we, and according to Walden Cooper, we're seeing folks sprinting from Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia is losing population.

Major expensive metros are losing population. If you have an opportunity, put the second graph on screen, net migration by region in Virginia. There it is. Look at the screen now. This is the second bar graph

from Weldon Cooper. I find this fascinating. Public school enrollment is dropping. Since the pandemic, public school enrollment is dropping. And whether folks want to admit this or not, if you want to go back to a two-shot here, the public school's slow movement to return to in-person learning created alienation or disenchantment with parents, which led them to consider other educational options like private schools or homeschooling. Weldon Cooper is back that statement that I just said with data, public school enrollment dropping since COVID. If Charlottesville continues to lose population and birth rates continue

to not rise. You'll have public schools with potentially in the city even less enrollment and their funding in very large part associated with enrollment. That should be a cause for concern for anyone. How this influences business is a potential lack of affordable labor,

which we've covered on this show, in particular for those businesses that need frontline workers. And by frontline workers, I mean anyone interacting with a consumer or a customer like in a face-to-face setting that could be food and beverage, that could be hospitality that could be music, that could be police

firefighters, nurses heck, I think you can throw the teachers in there workforce labor, I would say Louisa County's gain Workforce labor, I would say. Louisa County's gain is going to be, I think, even further backed or momentum-driven with the Amazon investment of $11 billion. No doubt. Upzoning advocates, which was the plan Judah referenced,

would say we need more stock of housing if we're going to create affordability or stabilize prices. That's to be determined. Certainly haven't seen that yet. Granted, it's been such little time that it's not fair one way to assess. We'll take your thoughts on this commentary. I want to go to Ginny Hu first. Ginny Hu watching the program on Twitter, Albert Graves, thank you for the retweet. She says, I know plenty of people who left Civo for Louisa. People left because

of shutdown policies. They wanted medical freedom and open schools and businesses. Louisa was the first to open their public schools. The first. Louisa's political ideology, the polar opposite of the city of Charlottesville's. Louisa had relaxed pandemic restrictions compared to Charlottesville. School, business, politics. Ginny Hu also highlights this. Look at how many of those deaths are stillborns, and that doesn't even count miscarriages since COVID.

Interesting. What is that an allusion to there, Ginny, out of curiosity? Is that an allusion to the vaccine? Is that what your tweet is allusion to there, Ginny? Out of curiosity. Is that an allusion to the vaccine? Is that what your tweet is alluding to? Out of curiosity. And she also says this via Twitter, I've said it before, but in 2020 and 2021, we got our kids out of Charlottesville and Albemarle

as often as possible, and you did not have to go far for a normal experience. Zion's Crossroads and Waynesboro were fantastic. A drop in population for the city is something that you should consider from a tax exposure standpoint. Consider from a tax exposure standpoint, those who still remain in the city will feel more burden. A drop in population and a drop in births should be something you consider from a school enrollment standpoint and the funding that comes with enrollment numbers. A drop in population,

you should consider from a labor force standpoint, especially if the drop in population is a group that is perhaps making, you know, 40K and under, 45K and under. And I would bet the drop in population, if you unpack that drop, it was financial margin, those on the financial margin that moved outside the city. That impacts businesses.

Curious of how it impacts political ideology or voting patterns. Very curious about that. I don't have an answer for you on that one. Chuck Ramey said, Charlottesville limited land to be developed for housing. Carly Wagner watching the program. Let's get Ginny and Carly Wagner's photos on screen.

These are key members of the I Love Seville viewer and listener rankings. Carly is number three. Ginny is four. John's got a comment at two. Deep Throat's got a comment at one. Newspaper watching the program as we speak. Carly says this, but if you are educating fewer, costs should go down, so funding should as well people claim homeschoolers and private schoolers steal public school funds but they have

kids that aren't using the system but parents still pay into the schools and per pupil funding has skyrocketed in public schools that's very true a lot of the parents that have kids in homeschools or private schools often make the comment, we're paying twice for school. We're paying for the public school that we're not

utilizing and also either the private school or the home school that we're utilizing. Now, the contrary argument of that is by not having your kid enrolled in the school, you're getting less funding based on the enrollment count. Carly Wagner says, a drop in population is a drop in future tax base too, which is what I highlighted. Completely agree. Pushes the tax burden on current residents more. Bill McChesney, we'll get to your comment. First, Philip Dow, we get his photo on screen. Philip Dow, let us know when his photo is on screen, Judah. He is, and his ranking should go up, number 19 in the poll. I think Philip should go to 14, and 14 should go to 19.

Philip, you're climbing five spots in the ranking based on your contributions of late. You've made the program better in Scottsville, Virginia. He said pretty soon you're going to a new tax, exit tax like New Jersey. So if you want to move out of Seville in the future, you will be taxed an exit tax. It's coming. I don't know if I'm going to go that far. I still appreciate that go that far. I still

appreciate that comment that you made. Bill McChesney says, Philip Dow, that is whack. I'm sure they will figure that out soon enough, though. I don't see an exit tax on the horizon. And Carly says, in relation to the public school funding, less total funding, but per pupil spending and funding has continued to increase in Charlottesville and Albemarle, so that argument is a straw man's argument. They constantly are raising the schools or asking for more budget. 60% of Albemarle County's budget

yearly in totality allocated to schools. Kevin Yancey watching the program. Kevin Yancey's key member of this family. Number 11 in the polls. Get Yancey watching the program. Kevin Yancey's key member of this family. Number 11 in the polls. Get Yancey's photo on screen. There's absolutely no tie to COVID vaccine and birth mortality, Ginny, he says. No tie, Ginny, to COVID vaccine and birth mortality. See if she's got a response to that. And she says, yep, the jab and birth mortality.

Contrasting opinions there. I'm just relaying the information from the viewers and listeners. I'm not going to unpack that one today. Albert Graves watching the program. Number 10 in the family. Get his photo on screen. Albert says, let's just be honest. It's a complete gutting and outing of the blue-collar worker

and the blue-collar family within the city and the county of Albemarle, and it will eventually come back to bite them and the keister in the long term. I'm going to retweet this. Well, I think that's exactly what's happening in the city. And I'm not even sure it's just a blue-collar worker. Yeah. I think it might even be the entry-level price point of the white-collar worker as well. No doubt.

When it's $123,300, the median HUD household income, that's a good – that's not just blue collar, that's white collar too. Albert Graves, I appreciate your comment. Let's go to John Blair who initiated this comment via tweet last night, which he tagged me in. He's watching on LinkedIn. This is a great topic for the talk show, John. He says, thank you for your kind words. I think it's impossible to overstate how much Louise is becoming a major player in the Charlottesville area. How much is Zion's Crossroads eating into

sales, lodging, meals, taxes that used to go to Charlottesville and Almaro? On a side note, you guys do such a great job with this show. This is an important conversation. Thank you, John, for those kind words. I think it's a fantastic comment. We drive to Zion's crossroads for Lowe's as opposed to going Lowe's in Alamo County on Route 29. We think the Lowe's, we live in Keswick, our family, and we think the Lowe's and Zion's crossroads, the service we get at that location is 10x better than the service that we get at Lowe's on Route 29, and it's not even close. Interesting. We drive to El Mariachi for dinner all the time, as opposed to eating at potentially one of the Mexican restaurants in Almaro. And Louisa's only going to boom even more. Two of the hottest neighborhoods you have right now in the car footprint are Lake Monticello and Spring Creek. We talked

about that on Real Talk this morning with Keith Smith. In fact, I think you could probably show some data. Let me know if I'm putting you on the fly here. This is from Real Talk with Keith Smith. This graph right here from Real Talk with Keith Smith that I'm holding in my hands, that's on screen? Yeah. This is where are the median list and sold prices for Lake Monticello and Spring Creek in the last six months? Lake Monticello, your median list price is $345,000 and your median sold price is $350,000. Spring Creek, which is a beautiful gated community, a beautiful, and this is real talk with Keith Smith, data from the car MLS. Spring Creek, a beautiful gated community, has a median list price of $480,000 and a median sold price of $495,000 in the last six months.

So you have Spring Creek, which is relatively new, absolutely gorgeous gated community, median sales price under $500,000, Lake Monticello, a beautiful community, gated golf course community, median sales price below $350,000. Is it still on screen?

Yep. You can't find these houses and these price points in Almar or Charlottesville. You cannot. You cannot find this kind of construction and these price points in Almar or Charlottesville.

Definitely not. Albert Graves says, Fluvanna and Louisa taxes are rising just as quickly as their populations rise. Let's go to Deep Throat, number one in the family. Get his photo on screen. He says, by the way, gentlemen, in the three years of Charlottesville losing population,

it added over 600 housing units, which is a counter-argument to your argument in the beginning, Judah. Yeah, that's fair. which is a counter argument to your argument in the beginning Judah he says in the three years of Charlottesville losing population it added over 600 housing units so please tell the folks at Livable Charlottesville that the story of no housing production is the reason why we aren't growing in population is absolute horse doo doo

he used a different word than doo doo it rhymes with hit. He says, I love that just as we recognize a historic move in preferences from density living, local Muppetry doubling down on density. He says, I've used that phrase, the hole in the donut, to describe Seville in the context of central Virginia when asked by people what I think of living here. Charlottesville City has the highest crime, worst schools, worst political climate, and ugliest

housing stock in any place he has lived. Ouch. From deep throat right there. In regards to the increased housing, could it be that we're losing families and gaining more single, high? No. No?

No. No. I don't think we're gaining singles to Charlottesville. Okay. Because of the dual income no kids moniker to offset cost of living. I think what Charlottesville is gaining is wealth. Wealthy. It's gaining boomers and it's gaining wealthy families. I do not think it's gaining single millennials, single Gen Zers. And Deep Throat's got another comment for you here. People prefer to live in a house.

Outlying counties offer single-family detached homes. Charlottesville's adding apartments, and the existing housing stock consists of smaller homes in the city. Damn, and he's got a graph he wants to put on screen. Let me know when you get that Twitter DM on screen so we can put his graph on. Kevin Yancey says, if not for Dice Hammer, Spring Creek would have died on the vine.

A lot of truth to that. Dice Hammer sees a deal, knows a deal. Dice Hammer, the owner of what, of Massanutten as well? Carol Thorpe in the Jack Jewett district. We need to get her photo on screen before we get Deep Throat's graph. Number nine in the family, Carol Thorpe. She says, I can vouch for Ginny Hu's comment about the politically motivated exodus from the city. I will add my observation that while it ramped up post-COVID, the genesis came earlier, beginning in the wake of Occupy Charlottesville and continuing through the removal of the statues. I personally know of

close to a dozen Republican or Libertarian families that had held on in the city for years, but just could not take the nonsense anymore. The sentiment has been mirrored by non-residents who no longer patronize city businesses and restaurants. It's the only vote they have. That's from Carol Thorpe. I will echo some of what Carol Thorpe has said right there. I know of dozens of families that have moved from the city because of the polarizing political climate. That is a fact. That is a fact right there. Mark Scott watching the program. Bill McChesney, his photo on screen. McChesney is 15 in the poll.

And then you got Deep Throat's chart ready to go? I'm getting there. McChesney says the city wants to spend millions on Buford and Walker, and you know their cost runs over. And costs on the remodeling or reconfiguring of these schools is going to be greater

than the projected costs. If you're just tuning into the program, Weldon Cooper released some data that shows Charlottesville's population has declined from 2020 to 2023 by the tune of, that's Deep Throat's chart? Not yet. Weldon Cooper's population data shows that Charlottesville's population has dropped 341 people from 2020 to 2023. Here's the interesting thing. Despite the significant, it's not significant.

Actually, when your population is under 50,000 people, I mean, you're talking potentially close to a percent of the city, right? What's the population of Charlottesville, Judah? 47,000 people? Let me check. Charlottesville population. I've got that chart ready. Okay, I'll cue that chart up. Charlottesville's population? 45,500 roughly? Yeah. 45,500 times.01, 455 people, and Weldon Cooper said over the last three years the drop in population is 341. You're talking what?

A quarter of a point drop in population? I mean, I don't think a quarter of a point should be sneezed at. Do you? As loss rather than growth, I mean, it's... This is a quarter of a point. It's still notable. Excuse me, excuse me. Three quarters of a point.

I stand corrected. Three quarters of a point. I stand corrected. Three quarters of a point. Three quarters of one percentage point drop in population. Three quarters of one percentage point in a three-year period of time. Why has the housing price, the cost of housing escalated so greatly? I think, I mean... I can answer that if you want me to. A lot of it has to do with, again, I think after effects of the pandemic.

They, I don't think when rates got to 2.25 and 2.5% during COVID and everyone refinanced or purchased homes at these 2.25, 2.5, sub 4% rates. I don't think they truly understood the long-term magnitude of what this is going to do to housing. People just are not getting off these sub 4% rates. Right. And why would they? And why would they? It's an asset now. Even with rates at what, 6.5, 6.7, 6.7, 6.8, 6.9, depending on your credit score. Yeah. They never anticipated the long-term effects of offering that kind of financing and how it would persist down the road. So you have limited inventory driving values

despite population decreases. That is fascinating right there. Show Deep Throat's chart. It's on screen. He says, are poor people moving out? When I looked at POMS data, I found that the difference in household income

between households that moved from Seville to over the mountain was not meaningfully different from those who moved within Seville or to other states. I don't see huge low-income out low, high income inflow here. Will be interesting to see when more recent data is available. I would be interested in that as well. I would bet lower income is moving out and higher income is moving in when that recent data is released. Ginny who is standing by the vaccine

stillbirths miscarriages comment that she's posted what else jumped at you from that report that you read? I mean, it's just a complete shift from what we're used to. Fairfax County, Virginia's largest locality, has continued to experience population decline due to out-migration in 2023. Loudoun County used to be the fastest growing locality. And despite the fact that it's still the wealthiest, only 11 more people moved in than left. A decade ago, Loudoun was attracting close to 10,000 more residents than left each

year. I mean, that's enormous. Enormous. What else jumped at you? And then I'll get to some other comments. I mean, it's the same pattern of people migrating out that we're seeing in Northern Virginia. And that's happening across the United States

in metropolitan areas everywhere. You want to hear something crazy? This is a crazy stat for you. From 2020 to 2023, according to the UVA Weldon Cooper Center, more than 40,000 people moved to Richmond, Virginia. More than 40,000 people have moved to Richmond, Virginia. From 2020 to 2023,

according to the Weldon Cooper Center, John says it would be fantastic if you could get Hamilton Lombard on your show to explain this. I will text him about this, literally have his cell number, see him maybe once or twice a week. I will ask him if he would come on the show. I sincerely will ask him, John, about that. And he says it's easy to say that a migratory loss of 341 people is not a big deal, but the folks that are moving here, which I think many of us believe, the folks that are moving here to the city are boomers or empty nesters

or wealthy families that will position kids in private schools instead of public schools. Charlottesville City public school system will see a drop in enrollment numbers. The private schools should see an increase, and Weldon Cooper has already highlighted that they're increasing enrollment. Louisa County's population has cracked 40,000, a 7.5% increase since 2020, according to Weldon Cooper, making Louisa the third fastest growing locality.

That's fine and dandy for an increased tax base and a stronger, more robust labor pool, but does Louisa have the educational public school infrastructure to accommodate? That's a sincere question. Are you looking at the next throttled school system being Louisa? Could be, though, with the amount of money they'll be bringing in from, like you said, Amazon, that could go towards some major growth. Yeah, but schools take an eternity to approve and create. That's fair. Redistrict and populate.

Are you looking at a throttle potential school system there? I love this kind of stuff, this kind of data stuff. 40,000 increase in Richmond. And how about Tammy Purcell, who indicated on Twitter that she really is the only real media coverage of the third fastest growing county in the Commonwealth with her substack. One person in Louisa is pretty much the only person covering the third fastest growing county in a 40,000 plus populated jurisdiction. One person. We talk about Charlottesville City being a... A news desert. A news desert. How about Louisa?

Ginny Hu says, I'm glad John brought this to our attention and that you're unpacking it on the show. Albert Graves shares two photos that are, if you go to my Twitter account and click notifications, get the two photos that Albert Graves just showed from his neighborhood. He said, when the neighborhood looked like this on the right and it's being replaced with this. So first, let me know when you have those two photos. And he said, this is what's happening in his neighborhood. Albert Graves, you don't have to say exactly where you live.

Which locality do you live in? Whereabouts do you live, Albert Graves? And J-Dubs, give me a thumbs up when that's on screen so I can show the viewers and listeners. Love when you guys comment on the show, guys. I love, love the viewer and listener comments. You make the program so much better. I sincerely, sincerely mean that.

Warrior AG, we're going to get your comments up here in a matter of moments. Grayson watching the program in North Downtown. All right, the first image is up. All right, this is the first image of Albert Graves' neighborhood. This is, he says, the house on the left is what our neighborhood used to look like. He lives in Crozet, he said.

This is Crozet. The house on the left is what our neighborhood used to look like. And then put the second image on the right. And they are quickly using the same amount of land to put four units on the same plot of land. So the house on the left was what it was. The house on the right is what it is now. Yeah. Crozet, Almarill County. So you went from a single family detached, I would say, what? You would 2,000 square foot home on what? Half acre to a quarter

acre, Albert Graves, to one, two, three, four, a fourplex, side by side by side by side, in Crozet. Grayson says, Jerry, another fantastic show. This is important information to get out there.

We will talk about this most certainly on our walk around the neighborhood this evening with our pooch. Thank you to you and Judah for this program. Thank you, Grayson. I've got a couple of other items I want to get out of the notebook here. Nora Gaffney, welcome to the program. Let me know what you're referencing with that comment, Nora Gaffney, and I'll relay it live on air. Happy to pass along your message,

just not sure what you're referencing there. Woody Fincham, hello. Woody Fincham on the Friday edition of Real Talk with Keith Smith. On the Friday edition, 10.15 a.m. edition of Real Talk with Keith Smith, Woody Fincham is going to be on the show to talk about Charlottesville City assessments. The Citizens for Responsible Planning, how would I characterize Citizens for Responsible Planning? A concern advocacy group? Let A group of Charlottesville residents who came together in 2021 out of concern that the housing chapter and future land use map of the city's draft comprehensive plan has serious flaws in both process and content. On Friday, we'll talk with Woody Fincham, Real Talk with Keith Smith, 10.15 a.m. about recently released assessment data. I'm excited for that. God, this show is in fire right now. Real hard time keeping up with the comments here. Kevin Yancey says, imagine living in Spring Creek and riding

the one-hour bus every day to and from Charlottesville. Oof. I think what's just going to end up happening is the migration patterns of financially margin labor is just going to create new little pockets of business that can utilize that labor. I was going to say, how much do you think businesses are going to migrate with the people? I think the businesses that need workforce labor will migrate with the workforce. They will either migrate with the workforce or they're going to have to adapt their business models and automate them, utilize AI, kiosk technology to automate. And how much do you think a more affluent

population is going to use that type of service? That's a great question. He's basically saying, will a more affluent population have stricter standards with the businesses they patronize and expect human-to-human contact and human-to-human service? Yeah. Do they want to use kiosks? That's a great question. Do they want to use apps? For example, and I catch some shade on this, I go to a grocery store. I do not want to bag my own groceries. I actively will wait in an aisle and go to a cash register as opposed to going to the checkout line. My wife, on the other hand, refuses to go to the checkout line and wants to go to the self-serve checkout. Even with the full cart? I can understand your perspective. If I had a cart absolutely

brimming with items, I would probably want to go through and deal with an actual person. So that all I've got to do is put the stuff on the belt. But as a single guy, I'm not usually filling up a whole cart. And so the self-serve checkout would make sense if you have eight to ten items in there yeah it's definitely easier for me to just go through self-checkout when uh when i've got a small amount of stuff philip dow said the same thing happened to his wife's best friend at avinity down avon extended his wife's best friend had a single-family detached house similar to what Warrior AG was posting in his neighborhood.

That home was purchased by the Avenity developer and is now a three-bedroom home with a pool development. Avenity is a very nice community. All right. Rob Neal, welcome to the program. Stephanie Wells-Rhodes, welcome to the program. Thank you for watching. Dana Lewis, Dean Russell, thank you for watching the program. Vanessa Parkhill, thank you for watching the program. We appreciate you guys. Spread the gospel. Katie Pearl, Holly Foster, welcome to the program. Liske, Kyle Miller just to name a few watching this fine and fair talk show

Andre Xavier, Curtis Shaver, the chef Curtis Shaver watching the program oh, clarification Yancey with the bus thing he was referencing Spring Creek by school bus to Louisa County High School is a one hour ride

you may be looking at your next throttled school system to Louisa County High School is a one-hour ride. You may be looking at your next throttled school system in Louisa right there. If the population is increasing like that, you may be looking at your next throttled system. All right, next headline, and we'll get to your comments. Put your headlines on screen. We'll relay them live on air. If you one-shot me again. This is another thing that's going to impact the population of Charlottesville. This is another thing that's going to impact the population of Charlottesville. The Darden School of Business,

UVA's Darden School of Business, is now ranked number one in the nation. The business education website, Poets and Quants, has ranked UVA's Darden School of Business number eight overall and number one among public schools. Get this. This is an article on news.virginia.edu. This ranking is the highest that Darden School of Business has ever had in the Poets and Quants evaluation, which is a composite of the five most influential rankings of MBA programs compiled by

the U.S. News and World Report, Financial Times, Bloomberg Business Week, LinkedIn, and the Princeton Review. A key driver for Darden's success in the Princeton Review, where the school ranked in the top 10 and more categories than any other MBA program, including number 2 in best campus environment, best classroom experience, and best career prospects. Poets and Quants declared Darden

number 1 overall in the composite Princeton Review ranking. You got if UVA undergrad, if the undergraduate school of UVA is one of the best public universities in the country, its business program is now ranked the the top talent in the country, earning potential-wise, who are, I mean, the MBA ranking straight up says best campus environment, best classroom experience,

best career prospects. So these students are going to Darden for two years, having a phenomenal campus environment, a phenomenal classroom experience, and years, having a phenomenal campus environment, a phenomenal classroom experience, and they're getting a phenomenal job. Are they, of course, not going to wax nostalgic eventually in their life and say, I want to move back here? Some, for sure, right? Yeah. I play squash with one of them. I talk about him from time to time. I actually saw him yesterday, and he said he would do anything possible to live here no doubt can't find a gig

here so he's going to the northeast where he's going to grind 80 85 hours a week making a quarter million plus but i'm sure in the back of his head it's moved down here um yeah probably as soon as he possibly as soon as he can because who wants to do the 80 90 hour a week grind yeah another influencer of population. Congrats to the MBA program at the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia. Number one public school and number eight overall. That is impressive. And speaking of UVA, they got the Fighting Irish tonight. Virginia's a 12.5 point favorite. They're riding the nation's longest home game winning streak at 21 games. They're facing a Notre Dame team that beat them earlier in the year.

Nationally televised on ESPN2 with a 7 o'clock tip. The over-under is at 115.5. Virginia has a very good opportunity to up its winning streak to 5 and to legitimately build its NCAA resume. Right now, prognosticators have Virginia looking into March Madness, not included in the big dance. Wallflowers, not even wallflowers, they didn't even make it to prom. At least at this point of the season. So the Hoos have some work to do, but this is a completely different ball club than when it faced Notre Dame in 2023

at the earlier stages of the campaign. ESPN 2, 7 o'clock. 12 and a half point favorites. Anything you want to close with, Judah? Any items in your notebook? Philip Dow, UVA is the Stanford of the East Coast. In many ways, yes, sir, it is. I think it's going to be an interesting coming 10 years or so

I was also looking at an interesting what did I say to you the other day about your house don't sell it what did I say don't sell it don't ever sell that house Don't ever sell that house. Yeah. Don't ever sell that house.

I rarely lead you astray. We may bicker. We may argue. We may have some knockdown, drag out, brouhaha's. But I've never led you astray. Don't sell that house. Mark it down. I didn't mean to interrupt you. I apologize. That's okay. I lost the thread anyways. Oh, come on now. Wasn't it about the Crozet apartments or condos? Is that

what you were talking about? No, not really. Oh, the next 10 years, it's going to be an interesting next 10 years is how you led with. Yeah. I, I'm trying to remember what I was, it was an article about the, uh, projected growth of, uh, of central Virginia and Virginia in the next, uh, uh, I think through 2030 and also through like 2050 and, um, where it's, it's the, you know, the, the fallout from the pandemic and from everything that's been going on recently. Uh recently I think we're going to be surprised by a lot of the changes and I think that what we've seen in some of these graphs today is

an early indicator. Dude, I don't even think, I agree, I don't even think we know what how, and I've said this so many times on this talk show, we don't even know how COVID and the pandemic have influenced human behavior and humanity and mankind, specifically our kids.

I think we are going to see public schools get a huge hit here. I read another interesting article that talked about the effect of these on kids and the fact that... Screen time, for those that are just listening, they don't all watch visual. He held up his phone. My cell phone. The fact that more and more kids are having trouble reading and writing, especially writing, because it's writing on the letter pad, the number pad on your phone, on the keypad, is very different from actually writing with your hand. Apparently, a lot of kids are not even able to, they can no longer tell the difference between a D and a B because

there's something there artists artists may may recognize this more than than other people I think because I've noticed that there's there's a language that that connects your connects your brain to your hand. And when you write or you draw, you expand that language, that understanding. And so by just tapping out letters on a keypad, you're maybe learning how to spell, but you're not really learning the words.

You're not really understanding the letters. Dude, it's just like this. When we were studying and we took notes while reading a textbook to further reinforce what we were studying. Yeah. Remember when we studied and there was a notepad when we were reading a textbook? And we would not only highlight what was in the textbook, but write down notes as well. Or when the teacher's teaching you something, and you're literally taking what she's teaching, and you're writing it down in a notebook, certain portions of it, what are you doing? You're reinforcing what you're learning.

I also drew a lot during class, and some of my teachers hated it. But the thing is, what I was doing was... You still do that. A little bit. You still do that. we're on conference calls and meetings and I look over and the man is drawing and doodling yeah because it engages my mind whereas if I am just sitting there doing nothing my mind wanders I I'm bored out of my mind. Literally. Drawing helps me focus. I'm seeing 13 years. One of the things that drives me crazy, but go ahead.

And I'm just saying, there's a connection between the physical act of writing or drawing and your mind working in tandem. And I think kids using iPhones and iPads are losing a lot of that. Perfect way to close. I've called it

the 2024 version of fentanyl with our children and our teens is screen time. Yeah. The 2020 version of the drugs that we should be most concerned about. Crack cocaine. The dopamine hit from social media. Hillary Lewis Murray, the juicy details at 2.15 p.m. today.

Interesting twist with the juicy details at 2.15 p.m. today. Interesting twist with the juicy details at 2.15 p.m. today. We are going to introduce Hillary and her talk show by me interviewing her today. She's done a hell of a job with three or four shows. One of the things that's come up with the process of her doing three or four shows is people have wanted an opportunity

to get to know her better, as opposed to her interviewing her guests. So we came up with the idea, what if I interview you? So I'm going to be on the Juicy Details with Hilary Lewis Murray today at 2.15 p.m. Mark your calendars. You're not going to want to miss it. I think it's going to be a fairly fantastic interview. For Judah Wickhauer, my name is Jerry Miller. It's the I Love Seville Show. So long.