The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Q2 CVille Area Association Of Realtors Report; Prices Continue To Rise + Mortgage Rates Down

Episode Date: August 5, 2024

The I Love CVille Show headlines: Q2 CVille Area Association Of Realtors Report Prices Continue To Rise + Mortgage Rates Down What’s Next In CVille Area Housing Footprint? CVille Parking Wars – City Hall vs Mark Brown Water St Parking Garage Party Of CVille History Planning Commish Stolzenberg Offers Comment What Have Been City’s Incremental Tax Sources? Tens Of Millions In Tax Pay $$ Allocated Tonight Read Viewer & Listener Comments Live On-Air The I Love CVille Show airs live Monday – Friday from 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm on The I Love CVille Network. Watch and listen to The I Love CVille Show on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, iTunes, Apple Podcast, YouTube, Spotify, Fountain, Amazon Music, Audible, Rumble and iLoveCVille.com.

Good morning, afternoon, guys. I'm Jerry Miller. Thank you kindly for joining us on the I Love Seville show. Today's city council meeting, tonight's city council meeting is loaded with decision making of significant merit as it applies to the allocation of taxpayer resources. We're going to be spending potentially buku bucks on electric vehicles, electric buses. We're going to be spending buku bucks, potentially, on the purchase of a mobile home park to essentially kibosh or block an acquisition with a private buyer. And parking in the Water Street parking garage when it comes to Mark Brown and the Charlottesville parking wars will be a topic of conversation yet again.

If you remember, just short of a decade ago, Mark Brown had the city by the short and curlies, by the cojones, had the leverage. He acquired the Charlottesville Parking Center. The Parking Center, when it was structured, was never intended to be run by one capitalistic individual who's a business person first,

Mark Brown, an astute businessman. We'll tell the story of Water Street and its parking garage and how it's kind of been woven in and out of Charlottesville history books. This is the same parking garage, ladies and gentlemen, that was one of the key reasons of why Johnny Dewberry, the extorting emperor of empty lots, did not do a held-to-hotel project on the downtown mall.

So much to cover on today's program, including this question for you. Who can name, in the last couple years, a few incremental sources of tax revenue created by local reason the meals tax is generating more revenue, ladies and gentlemen, is because the city raised the tax. I wouldn't call that innovation or creativity or entrepreneurship or incremental. I would just call that asking or demanding or taking more of our money when we go out to eat. Same for the lodging tax. Give me a couple of concepts or a couple of tax funnels that have been created, fostered, or nurtured by government to help offset overhead

or to diminish the demand on our pockets. We'll talk about that on today's show. We'll talk about the CAR second quarter report. That report is out. Look, it's no secret. Prices are escalating. And you'll hear folks position it this way. Oh, this quarter in Alamaro County in 2024 versus the second quarter in Alamaro County in 2023, prices increased only 3%. And that's one way of looking at the data. But I want you to understand this. If prices from 2020 second quarter to 2021 second quarter jumped 13%, and prices from 2021 second quarter to 2022 second quarter jumped 11%. And if prices from 2022 second quarter to 2023 second quarter jumped 7%, and they jumped 3% year over

year for second quarter last year versus this one, you're still looking at an astronomical increase. We'll take a look at real estate and what's next for the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors footprint today on the I Love Seville show. Give the show a like and a share. Vanessa Parkell, Logan Wells, Clay Lowe,

thank you for interacting with the program. John Blair, we appreciate you as well. J-Dubs, if you can do me a favor, Judah Wickauer, our enterprising director and producer, I'm not seeing it live on the I Love Seville group. Oh, producer. I'm not seeing it live on the I Love Civo group. Oh, yeah.

Nor am I seeing it live on the wall of my Facebook page. You want me to restart yours? I am seeing, I think you should. That's what I was encouraging. I am seeing it live on the I Love Civo Facebook page, and I'm seeing it live

on Twitter. I'm looking at them directly right now. So I would suggest restarting both the group and my Facebook, please. Thank you very much. Ginny Hu, thank you for the retweet. Trey Barham, we appreciate you watching us on LinkedIn. Like and share the show, guys. We work hard for you. The only thing we ask in return is you subscribe, you like and share the show. That's it. Literally, that's it. And we'll keep giving you content every

day. Don't ask for money. Don't ask for donations. Literally just liking, sharing, and subscribing the show. All right, let's talk about the second quarter report on the car footprint. That report is out. I love data. I love looking at data from different angles. You can find it on caar.com. Top headline. Judah's going to put a graph on screen after he gets those two pages restarted. Give me a thumbs up when you got those two pages restarted for me, and then we'll get the graph on screen. My Facebook and I Love Civo group. This report is going to be something

that we are going to look back and say, this was a crossroads or a springboard for real estate in central Virginia. I want you to take a look at what mortgage rates have done in the last week. They've dropped considerably. Depending on where you shop, you can get a 30 fixed in the 6-4 range, if not a little bit lower. 60 days ago or so, that 30 fixed was over 7. Markets today, hemorrhaging. Some have said that the Federal Reserve needs to do an emergency rate

cut. Whether Powell and his team do that, who knows? I'm not even sure Powell and his team know what they're doing. Are they dictating markets, dictating where we're going as an economy, or are they responding and responding in late capacities? Time will tell. Regardless, we have turmoil on Wall Street. Regardless, we have turmoil when it comes to economies. I think that turmoil is going to enter the Charlottesville and Central Virginia market. You're going to see rates drop fairly quickly. And as rates drop fairly quickly, you're going to see rates drop fairly quickly. And as rates drop fairly quickly, you're going to see a buyer pool get bigger because more people can afford housing. As interest rates drop, people have more buying power.

They're able to purchase houses at a greater clip because they become more affordable. Here's the conundrum. The rates are not going to fall to the COVID lows. So you're still going to have a lion's share of people who secured home ownership during the pandemic hesitant to put their homes on the market. So if rates drop below six, let's say you see them in the high fives. Let's see them, let's say maybe next year, mid fives. Is that enough to entice someone who secured a 2.5 or 2.75% interest rate, 3% interest rate during the pandemic to put their house on

the market? Some will do it. Most will not. So you're still going to have a supply constraint. You're still going to have not enough houses on the market. So when rates drop, you'll have more buyers because people can afford more stuff. Still not enough houses because people aren't going to get off the 2.5, 2.75, 3.0 rates during the pandemic. That's going to drive prices up and it's going to drive prices up big time. All that is happening at the very same time that people are moving to Charlottesville, Alamo, and Central Virginia. And they're moving here, whether it's because of the University of Virginia, because of biotech, because of data science, they're moving here because they're tied to Northrop Grumman and that $300 million in Waynesboro, the new facility they're building, where the average salary for

each person working there is $94K. They're moving here because of Amazon and data centers and $11 billion investment. They're moving here because it's a fantastic area to work from a hybrid standpoint, from a remote standpoint. And more people are able to work hybrid and remote now. Population is increasing. The Jefferson Council released a report on the 30th of July. The Jefferson Council is the organization that's trying to push to preserve Thomas Jefferson's legacy at the University of Virginia. Bert Ellis, who's on the Board of Visitors, is one of the founding members of the Jefferson Council, co-founder. And on the 30th of July,

the Jefferson Council offered some commentary and some analysis. And they highlighted this. If you're an out-of-state student and you're attending the University of Virginia, you are now paying, with tuition and fees, about $85,000 a year. $85,000. $83,685. And the Jefferson Council basically says this. The school with out-of-state students and an

$83,685 per year price tag has become a stomping grounds for the filthy rich. If your family was making your mom and dad, your dad and dad, your mom and mom, if they were clocking a quarter million dollars a year in household income, and remember, according to HUD, that family household income in the central Virginia footprint is $124,200. That's in-state. Let's just talk out-of-state. Let's say you're able to 2X the family household income in central Virginia. You live in Baltimore, somewhere in New England, somewhere in the mid-Atlantic, anywhere in the country. $124,200, the family household income in the Charlottesville area, according to HUD.

I'm going to use that as a barometer and say an out-of-state family, let's just say they can 2X that number, and they're clocking a quarter million dollars a year in household income. If you're the parents and little Johnny and little Susie wants to go to the University of Virginia and you're making a quarter million dollars in take-home pay, would you allow your kid to go to an out-of-state school at $85,000 a year, $83,685 to be exact? that's a third of your family's income before taxes. 83,685 times 3 is a third of a quarter million dollars in family household income before taxes. You probably would not.

Many folks, many household families are not clocking a quarter million. And that family, back of the napkin math, probably cannot afford the out-of-state tuition because that's the third of what they take home each year before taxes. So that means the out-of-state student that's attending the University of Virginia, the family household income is significantly greater than that. My point is this. You have students here at UVA where roughly a third of the student body is out of state, coming from houses that are clocking well over a quarter million dollars in gross family household income just to be able to afford the yearly price tag of roughly 85k to attend the University of Virginia.

A lot of those students are staying here after graduation or coming back here after graduation because they fell in love with the community with four years of undergraduate studying. Some of those students, their parents are so deep-pocketed, they're buying housing in and around grounds for their kid to stay in and rent extra rooms to their buddies because they know they're going to get massive appreciation and value on those houses. So here's the point I'm going to make before I weave you in, Judah Wickhauer, into the discussion. And I want to show the car graph on page 10 from the second quarter report. Here's the point I'm going to make. And I'm now seeing it live on the page, J-Dubs. Good work. When rates keep dropping like they're doing, and we're looking at like three quarters of a point

on the 30 fixed in the last week, two weeks, they're going to drop, and it's going to put more people in the market to buy a house. While they're going to drop, they're not going to be enough to entice the folks that secured obscenely historically low rates during COVID. So more buyers enter the swimming pool. And as more buyers enter the swimming pool, they need houses to buy. There's not going to be enough

for them. That means the houses that are on the market are going to uptick in value even more. If you're on the fence right now about buying a house or thinking about buying a crib right now, or you think that the housing market is going to slow down and values are going to drop because you're saying this, it can't keep this pace, you're reading the tea leaves incorrectly. The population is going to increase and the increase is going to be extremely wealthy. The rates are going to decrease and that's going to put more buyers in the market to look to secure houses. But they're not going to drop enough to get the people off the 2.3, 2.5, 2.75 rates that they secured during the pandemic. It'll get some off, but the lion's share will keep holding the houses they have because their

payments are obscenely low and that's going to all happen at the same time and when that does happen you're going to see this quarter 2024 versus next quarter 2025 the values of homes uptick even more put that graph on screen if you could please sir sir this is from the second quarter report car that's on the car website right now let me know when that's on screen it's on screen if you could, please, sir. This is from the second quarter report car that's on the car website right now. Let me know when that's on screen. It's on screen. Take a look at the screen now. You can find this at car.com, C-A-A-R.com.

Here's the point I'm making. You have some in the realtor community saying that prices are stabilizing quarter over quarter. Oh, it's only a 3% uptick, Judah, in Alamaro County. It's only a 3% uptick in car quarter over quarter. 445,900 versus 460,050. It's getting flatter. But what they're not saying, it's a 3% uptick on last year's 7%.

On the year before, that's 11%. On the year before, that's 11%. And the year before, that's 13%. You see the point I'm making? It's a trend still continuing. What are your thoughts? Anything you want to add to this? Yeah, I see what you're talking about. I mean, I think the problem for most people

is that the 13 and 11 and 7 have pretty much outstripped their ability to get into a house. And so while it may be leveling off, is it leveling off at a spot that's already pushed too many people out of contention, so to speak? I'm not sure the point you're making here.

Has it already gotten too steep for most people? Yeah, and that's what I started with. I think the years that we had from COVID to now have made it so expensive that even a 3% uptick is still an uptick. Yeah. I think it's going to be even higher next year, year over year.

And I see why it's these kinds of storylines that are pushing government to consider allocating, what is it, 8.3 million over five years to help Piedmont and Habitat for Humanity purchase and develop the Carleton Mobile Home Park. Yeah. And I understand and empathize and sympathize for creating a community

where we all can afford to live. But eventually government's got to realize it's not going to outpace the market. There's only a certain amount of money out there. And if they continue to go back to you and I and the viewers and listeners for more of our money to help create affordability, all they're doing is having a backwards or backfiring effect.

Because then the middle class becomes pinched and then dissolves and becomes non-existent. Yeah. the middle class becomes pinched and then dissolves and becomes non-existent yeah now they're talking about the water street parking garage back in the news again commissioner rory stolzenberg has offered some commentary on reddit about this mark brown the owner of the charlottesville parking center the structure that is on Water Street that is home for parking and a storefront and retail storefront

and the parking lot next to the structure. I almost looked at buying one of those storefronts in the Charlottesville Parking Center. The Charlottesville Parking Center has storefronts that were previously home to CBRE, now Colliers, a commercial real estate firm. It's home to a massage parlor, which I think now is the home of Structural Engineer. And at one time, one of those storefronts was owned by a dry cleaner and tailor that had an operation on 29 in one of the shopping centers. And he had his unit for sale.

And I was young and investing. This was almost a decade ago. It might have been 12 years ago. And I was wondering why these storefronts on Water Street kept going on the market for sale. Fantastic location, parking garage right above it, basically downtown, great exposure, well-situated offices, well-appointed. And then when I saw Collier's sale, sell their unit,

and their commercial brokers, savvy guys, I said, something's going on here. Then I remember asking my mentor, Bill Nitschman, about this. He owns real estate all over the city. And he said to me, that's an office, that's a commercial condo building. Be careful of who is buying the units and the control that they can get if they get to a certain percentage of ownership. That's what he said to me. Sounds familiar.

And I looked into the commercial condo building, and who was buying, and it was Mark Brown. At the time, he was the owner of the ice park. At the time, he was the owner of, and he still may own this building. He no longer owns the Ice Park. He still may own the Whiskey Jar in what was Escafe at the time. Escafe was next to Whiskey Jar on the downtown mall. You know, you remember that restaurant?

I remember Escafe, but I don't remember being next to Whiskey Jar. Yeah, it used to be next to Whiskey Jar. It was there. And Mark was starting to make a name for himself in the city as a commercial owner. Really started making a name for himself when he acquired the Ice Park. Next thing you know, Mark Brown takes control of the Charlottesville Parking Center. Next thing you know, Mark Brown sues the city of Charlottesville when it comes to parking. Then the city countersues Mark Brown.

And for months, this dominated the news cycle. Mark Brown against the city when it went down to the Water Street parking garage. This is the same Water Street parking garage that was the catalyst for the destruction of the Dewberry Hotel. The Water Street parking garage was the catalyst for the abortion of the Dewberry Hotel. John Dewberry had negotiated a deal with Mike Signer over a number of spaces 100 plus spaces in the Water Street parking garage

and Michael Payne when running for city council for the first time said and he campaigned on this platform why are we giving an out of market developer sweetheart tax deals and parking spaces of this price point and he kiboshed the deal that Mike Signer arranged, which then pissed off John Dewberry so much, he said, I'm not going to do this project, this boutique hotel. So you have a structure on Water Street, this parking garage, that has a history, as Sean Tubbs has reported, back to 1959.

Tubbs reports in his Charlottesville Community Substack that the Charlottesville Parking Center was created in 1959 as a way to help attract or retain commerce in downtown Charlottesville, which was facing pressures from Barracks Road Shopping Center and other suburban developments. The initial people that were part of the Charlottesville Parking Center were those that were interested in the economic health of the city in downtown Seville. It's a condo building. What does that mean?

It means you have, just like the Macklin Building, a condo building. What does that mean? It means you have, just like the Macklin building, a number of owners. University Shopping Center is a good example of a condo building. One of the reasons the University Shopping Center where Papa John's is located and the tennis shop is located, that's in city limits. One of the reasons it's, some would say underperforming. I think it's charming, eclectic. My favorite shop, the tennis shop is there. Some would say it could be much more than what it is right now, but it can't, it cannot be more than it is right now because there are a number of owners in this thing and you don't have assemblage. You don't have the ability to assemble or one owner that can call the shots right mark assumed control of the charlesville

parking center 13.8 million purchased the cpc outright yeah if i had bought that storefront on water street from the dry cleaner i would have been in a up you know what's creek. Sometimes better be lucky than good. In that case, it was good advice from Bill. Now Mark's got the city by the short and curlies. Here's what Robert, here's what Rory Solzenberg puts on Reddit about the Charlottesville Parking Center and what's coming up in City Council's meeting tonight. This is Rory's words. Quote, regardless of the merits of the decision,

rushing into a vote on a 50-plus million financial commitment with an option to spend another 100 million at the end while giving the public zero notice of this happening prior to the council agenda release days before the meeting seems staggeringly irresponsible. I can't think of another decision of this magnitude being given this little public process, end quote. Someone asked him, are you talking about the Carleton mobile home park? He says, dude, that's peanuts compared to the Water Street parking garage. Why haven't we been talking about this for an extended period of time? Why hasn't this been in the news cycle? Why did we just find out about this days before the council meeting that's happening tonight?

Did council make a mistake by not taking down the Guadalajara and the Lucky 7 on Market Street? And building parking. And building parking there. The city owns the Market Street garage. The city could have had more leverage with Water Street and Mark Brown had it had an additional parking structure across from the Market Street parking garage

that often does get to capacity. What is the importance of parking when it comes to downtown Seville? Some would say it's not that big of a deal. Others would say it's paramount to maintaining the vibrancy and the health of the downtown economy. Here's a follow-up question. How many people can you name in the city of Charlottesville that have this kind of leverage and negotiating position with the city of Charlottesville?

Mark Brown owns a public utility essentially. Give me one or two people, please, viewers and listeners, that have this kind of leverage over the city of Charlottesville, this kind of negotiating position, anyone, give me a name or two,

and you'd be hard-pressed to find one. Name one. Have they been selling off their positions? I mean, we did have the Rivanna area. You're saying Wendell Wood? Yeah. I would say the leverage that Wendell Wood had, that was a great topic that you brought up there. The leverage that Wendell Wood had on the Rivanna River

with the partnership, with the deal he had set up with Bo Carrington to build some apartments, Bo was going to build on Wendell's land, pales in comparison versus a parking garage that flanks the downtown mall. Okay. Pales in comparison. And this leads me to ask you this question. In tonight's council meeting, government is going to vote or have a conversation on giving non-profit developers,

Piedmont Housing Alliance and Habitat for Humanity, millions and millions and millions of our taxpayer dollars. Yeah, eight point something. To keep a mobile home park, a trailer park, a trailer park. For the time being. In that same meeting, council is going to have a conversation about spending 800 and some thousand dollars, $800 and some thousand plus dollars on two electric buses. Yeah.

Two electric buses. We learned last week from Deep Throat, who sends us a newspaper article from Austin, Texas, that Austin is saying, hell no, we won't go with electric buses because they break down, because the geographical territory they can cover is much less than diesel buses, and because what was the statistic? They were on the road about half as less as diesel buses.

I don't know if diesel buses run 24 hours, but these were, I believe, eight hours max before they needed to be recharged. Right. So in today's meeting, we have local government going to have a conversation, as Rory Stolzenberg put it, rushing into a vote on a 50-plus million financial commitment on the Water Street parking garage with an option to spend another $100 million at the end while giving the public zero notice you have that allocation you have the carlton mobile home park was at 8.3 million over five years to develop it potentially 8.7 8.7 million and then you have 800 000 plus for electric buses two of them yeah that that can cover the geographical territory that diesel buses can,

that break down more often than diesel buses can, and aren't nearly as reliable, and are way more expensive. Is it $65,000 or $67,000 more expensive than diesel? $65,000 more than a regular, than purchasing two diesel school buses. Okay. So let's spend an additional $65,000 instead of giving it to people for raises or hiring more people, and let's buy things that are not as efficient, that break down more, and are not reliable enough for the marginalized population

that rely on public transportation. Yeah. Let's do it all at the same time that we may need to allocate $150 million to a man that may have more leverage in the city over anyone else in the city. And let's do it all while we're going to kick $8 point how much, million?

$8.7. To nonprofits to preserve a mobile home park for 67 trailers. That leads me to ask you this question. We're extremely good at spending money. Like all government, we're

extremely good at spending money. Give me a couple of examples where we have fostered or nurtured or birthed incremental tax sources. I'm asking you, Judah. I'll ask you, the viewer and listener, that. And raising taxes on current tax sources is not, in my book, incremental. No, I don't know if I'd call it regressive, but how much is too much? How much are we going to raise things before people say, you know, Charlottesville is an okay place to visit, but the cost has just gone up too much since the last time i was there the city has got a windfall of money i just let you know when john blair i'm getting to your comment here from 2020 to 2024 put the second quarter median sales prices graph on screen from car this is from the charlottesville area association of realtors at the start of the pandemic which was the second quarter judah

remember the pandemic interrupted the acc tournament and march madness i wouldn't have remembered that so the first quarter is january february march april April of 2020 was the start of COVID. The median price, according to Carr, was $331,500. You got the graph on screen? In 2024, the second quarter, just finished, the median price is $460,000. Government has an effing windfall because of housing. And they're just spending that windfall. This is not incremental.

This is not incremental right here. I don't call what Jeffrey Woodruff did with the data science school and his donation to bring that school to market the city's doing or the county's doing. Nor do I call the $100 million Paul Manning invested for the biotech school on Fontaine the city's doing or the county's doing. I'll call that good fundraising by the University of Virginia, and I'll call that fantastic generosity from two community pillars and Jeffrey Woodruff and Paul Manning.

Yeah, no doubt. That's not nurturing or birthing incremental sources from the city or the county. I'm serious. Give me anything. Do I point to the bird scooters and the VO scooters as incremental tax sources? Tongue in cheek. That was a catastrophe.

I'm serious. I'm serious. I'm really serious about this. Sports tourism? No. I'm genuinely serious. I've got nothing. John Blair asked this question on LinkedIn.

Jerry, here's a relevant question for you. Do you believe that there is a shortage or surplus of parking in downtown Charlottesville? I'm curious of what you and Judah think. I look at the new lot at 323 and I really wonder what is the reality of the parking situation in downtown. I ask because do you believe there is any capacity for price hikes at Market Street or Water Street?

Would you invest more money in an asset with no pricing flexibility? Great question. I would say this. There's no parking problem in downtown Charlottesville. If you want to park 100 yards off the downtown mall, you might struggle to find a space. But if you're willing to walk a couple of blocks in the two-hour free spaces, you can find parking all day, every day, and twice on Saturday and Sunday.

And if you go to Georgetown or Nashville, or when you go to Philadelphia or Southampton, or when you go to Buckhead or Naples, are you fine with walking two or three blocks, four or five blocks, to go to the destination of choice. Of course you are. I think that in Charlottesville there's not always a whole lot of, I have

people when I'm out asking me directions. I had a woman parking and trying to get to the courthouses. And I was explaining, you know, like if you just go a block that way, you don't have to worry about moving every two hours. And I think she was worried about getting lost. You and I have, how long have you worked here?

Is it 14 years this year? Something like that. We have worked downtown Monday through Friday for... You go 9.30 to 6.30. Monday through Friday. Yeah. Have you ever struggled

to find a parking space? For you, occasionally, yeah. For you personally? For me, I don't park in two hour spots. And how many blocks do you walk? It's about three or four blocks. He walks three or four blocks to an office, to an area that he's worked at for 14 years and has never struggled to find parking. John Blair makes the point, would you invest significant money in an asset with no price flexibility? Elasticity.

How much can you raise the cost of parking without pissing off the merchants and the customers because you raised the cost of parking when there's significant free parking available all over downtown? Yeah. And the two-hour window of parking downtown, that can be push. And I'm not telling anyone to...

Right. It's essentially over 4.30 or 5 rather than 6. And, yeah. I mean, it's not like... Unless you see the cop car, the police car that checks all the parking, coming up behind you, you know you've probably got 10 or 15 minutes before they come around. Add that to your two hours. I'll say this again. Who has more leverage over the city in a negotiation capacity than Mark Brown?

Depends on how badly Charlottesville wants those parking spots. Think of somebody. Somebody. Deep Throat's got some comments. He agrees with Rory Stolzenberg for once, he says. And one would have to be insane to trust the likes of this council to negotiate any big dollar agreement.

By the way, on parking, I'm just leaving Bozeman, Montana today. My wife mentioned, he says, I mainly prefer downtown Bozeman to downtown because it's so easy to park on the street. He says, I agree, but I prefer it due to the absence of crazy people and human feces. Ouch. He says, in regards to Carlton, has anyone seen the deal with the other buyer? Are we sure the city isn't getting yoked by a fake stalking horse deal?

That's a great question. Do we know anything about the other buyer? Here's another question I have for you. This is me talking here, then I'll get to Deep Throat's comments here. When do we say this to the city? When do we say this?

You are about to allocate our resources to save a mobile home park. We deserve clarity or transparency on the other offer. Yeah.

Are the biggest geniuses in the world the family that owns the mobile home park that created a narrative of an offer of $7 million for their six acres when it was assessed just over $2 million? A narrative that gained so much momentum in the news cycle that two non-profit developers got in the mix and are about to get a loan or a gift from us taxpayers to purchase the park to save 67 homes and to make the family that owns the park seriously wealthy. To be fair, we should mention that I believe they plan on developing that property.

Have you seen the development plans? Of course not. Do you know anything about the buyer of the mobile home park? Do we know a name? No. Do we know what their intentions are? Do we know anything at all? Besides the fact that they'll pay $7 million for something that's been assessed over $2 million?

We don't. Do we deserve to know? I think we do. Deep Throat says this. You have to imagine Mark Brown has a nut to pay on the property. Loans, property taxes, maintenance, he cannot afford to have that structure empty, so he can't push too hard on price.

And he also says, I wonder whether Mark really has leverage. If no deal, what's he going to do? Hike prices from $1 to $3? Tell him to pound sand? Structure and land no way around 150 million. I would say this The old guard of downtown Charlottesville is so adamant about parking deep throat and The necessity for the vibrancy of the downtown economy that if the city doesn't structure this deal The city will be lobbied left, right,

back, and center by this old guard about the need to do the Water Street deal. The Joan Fentons of the world would scream bloody murder if a deal was not structured. Huge

city council meeting tonight. Philip Dowell, thank you for watching on Twitter. Ginny Hu, thank you for the retweet. Randy O'Neill watching the program. He says, sadly, over 20 years, I found little interest in reducing costs, improving service in Charlottesville, Albemarle. Remember, the county must pay 20% in some general fund stuff. He's alluding to the revenue sharing agreement.

Janice Boyce-Trevillian, are they really considering electric when so many other cities are running from them? How about the stock market bust? Stock market is hemorrhaging today. If you're in big tech, and I have a lot of big tech positions, you don't want to look at your holdings right now.

The electric, I'm all for saving the environment, but we can't put the environment ahead of getting our marginalized community to and from their locations efficiently and on time. Because that would be unfair to them and further marginalize them. Right? Yeah.

Let's go to Jason Howard. You've talked about kiosks at McDonald's and shorter hours overall as the area housing prices don't really support people making service job wages. We've already lost 24-hour grocery and numerous chain restaurants from Waffle House to Red Lobster. How long until the grocery

hours are 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. because that's what is practical to staff? Great question, King of Ryle Road. I'll push back on that. How long till we have grocery stores? Look at what's happened to Reed's. How much longer do our grocery stores are just grocery hubs that deliver to people's storefronts and to people's houses and doorsteps? If your business model is reliant on minimum wage staff to keep it open, you're in a precarious position. No doubt. Because that minimum wage staff cannot afford to live here. And they're not going to commute half an hour to 45 minutes to an hour for a minimum wage job. Right. And if I hear from one other person again that this area can't support the housing prices and the housing values and the escalation in prices,

I'm going to just have an unfriendly reaction. There's a pocket of people in this community that says, these value escalations are not sustainable. Guys, if people are moving to the area, working remote and hybrid jobs that are super wealthy, then these price value escalations are just the tip of the iceberg, just the beginning. That doesn't necessarily make them sustainable, though. Why do you say that?

Oh, man. Because you just got done talking about the fact that... It's just going to crush those businesses that need minimum wage employees. Yeah. It's going to mean... Deep Throat calls it the amenity effect. You're just going to have a boatload less businesses

that rely on minimum wage employees. The best businesses in that minimum wage sphere are going to be the ones that survive. They'll get more market share because their competitors have been squashed. And they'll be able to generate more revenue and pay their staff more money to keep them around. You disagree.

Or if you're in that service industry, you utilize the internet, kiosks, AI, and less human capital. Third-party delivery. No front-of-the-house staff. Order at the register, pick up at a window. Order online, pick up at a window. I mean, those are great theories, but are you honestly saying that that's sustainable?

Order online and pick up at a window is not sustainable? Okay. No, I'm trying to understand what you're saying. Order at the register and pick up at a window, not have front of the house staff, it's not sustainable? Use Toast. It may be sustainable for... Use a Toast plug-in to create an order. You know, you're familiar with Toast, right?

Yeah. Toast, how do we put it in perspective for the viewers and listeners? It's a CRM that restaurants use. Yeah, it's like Grubhub, Uber Eats. It's a customer relationship management digital tool that restaurants use. You're checking out. You swipe your card on a Toast tablet.

Or you want to order on a website or through an app. You're doing it through Toast and their website. Or Grubhub. Or Grubhub. Or Grubhub. Whatever. Grubhub, Uber Eats, Toast utilize digital infrastructures to replace human capital. That's what's happening. The strong will survive. Those that don't adapt will fail. And the strong that do survive will take the market share or the customers away from those that fail. That's how it happens all the time. Vanessa Parkhill.

Maybe government should invest those funds in business development and adult education that would provide higher paying jobs to the people in our community. 100%. She also said, why should we assume only marginalized members of the community are riding those buses? Fair point. Oh, good. For thee, not for me. I guess many of the people supporting those policies just hop in their personal electric vehicle.

I think it's a fair point. Could be others, not just the marginalized that are riding the buses. I would bet the large majority of the people that are riding the bus, though, are from financially marginalized communities. I think they're definitely the ones that need the buses. In fact, within the last week, the Charlottesville Police Department was called to a man, was called on site to one of the buses. A man had a gun and ammunition on him while riding the bus. These are the type incentives that government could do. They could attract employers to the area with tax incentives that are linked with hiring from within the community.

I love her idea of creating. In fact, you know, I've got to give some props to a guy that catches some heat on this program. Dr. Wes Bellamy has caught some heat on this program. He is one of the drivers of science, technology, engineering, and math, and the black community in Charlottesville and Albemarle County. And he's creating educational infrastructure for the African-American community to learn science, technology, engineering, math, coding, coding as well. Yeah. So that they are better qualified to be hired by some of the firms locally. On Wednesday, we're going to have the pro-Renata folks on the show. Yeah.

Dr. John Shabe is going to be in the house. Pro Renata is having amazing success. No doubt. This is an Albemarle County success story, Pro Renata. And expanding. The Disney world of Crozet. Expanding to downtown Stanton and the Shenandoah Valley. But it's also a microcosm of what I'm talking about.

Dr. Shaib and Pro Renata asked, they begged, they pleaded with Albemarle County to extend a water line so they could brew some more beer in Crozet to meet the demand that they had with happy customers. And they could not get the water to their Crozet location. Yeah. And we're talking a minimal, we're talking feet, not miles, for additional water to the brewery. Yeah. So after you're begging and you're pleading

and you're asking and you're explaining, look at what this will do for jobs and economic development and revenue when it falls on deaf ears months after months after months, years after years. You have to think outside the box and look elsewhere. And that's Stanton's gain, the Shandor Valley's gain. And Almar County's loss. Almar County, I will say this.

I can point to an incremental tax revenue generator that the county has done, Rivanna Futures, when they bought land from Wendell Wood. Damn, Wendell Wood's name comes up often on this program. They buy land from Wendell Wood, afterthought land on the Greene County border to keep the defense sector firmly rooted in al-Mahr al-Khani because of its billion-plus economic influence yearly, according to a Chamber of Commerce white paper.

I can point to al-Mahr al-Karle County doing an economic development using policy and taxpayer resources to drive incremental tax sources. Give me something the city has done. Please, I'm asking. I've still got nothing. And have you answered this question? Who's had more negotiating leverage with the city of Charlottesville than Mark Brown?

I think you've given a good argument. I wouldn't say it's Alan Kajine, the bi-coastal attorney that owns much of the commercial space in downtown and West Main Street. Would you say it was Chris Henry in Stony Point? Phase 3 dairy market hasn't happened yet. No. And he's backed by some deep pockets, his father-in-law, Mr. Paul Manning. Follow tonight's meeting closely.

Watch the interview with the Pro Renata folks on Wednesday. It's going to be dynamite. Pay attention to what's going to happen with the housing with home values in two weeks you've seen a three-quarter point drop on the 30 fixed and you're saying that's going to lead to further home price growth? Because as mortgage rates drop, more people will be coming in trying to buy houses? Yeah. When interest rates drop, the buyer pool expands. When the buyer pool expands,

more interest on existing supply. With more interest on existing supply, you have more multiple offer situations and values upticking. That interest rate drop, if it gets into the fives, is still three points, two and a half points delta

with what people secured during COVID. Some folks will get off that two and a half, three point rate they secured during COVID because they have massive stacks of equity. But the large majority will not will not give it up. Yeah. So when more buyers get in the market with rates dropping, supply is not going to meet up with that demand, which is going to drive values even more. Right. If you're thinking about buying a house, I would do it like the next 90 days. ASAP. Because once this election gets behind us and the turmoil that comes with the presidential race is in the rearview mirror,

then you're really going to start seeing rates drop and you're going to see a buyer's bonanza. Jason Howard says I'm not saying the price increases are unsustainable I think some combination of kiosks, shorter hours and fewer locations are the future up to each chain or business how they adapt I 1000% agree I think the future

is less priority on sexy class A and more priority on customer infrastructure tied to artificial intelligence, kiosks, mobile apps, and digital purchasing

and delivery. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the most successful ones in the restaurant space don't even offer sit-down service. Think about how insulated and protected a pizza delivery business is. Think about it. A pizza delivery business. You go into a Papa John's or a Domino's, you see, what, three people working? Yeah, it depends on the... How many work at a Domino's in the storefront?

You got one person taking the call, right? Depends on the time of day. On a Friday night or Saturday night? Generally speaking, you'd have a lot of... Delivery drivers on the road. Yeah, you'd have a lot of delivery drivers on the road, and you'd have... Someone taking a phone call

and two or three pizza makers. Yeah. That's it. Give or take, yeah. Where have you seen a Domino's or a Papa John's in sexy Class A restaurant space? Genuine question for you. Talking about Charlottesville?

There's a Papa John's in the University Shopping Center. That's not Class A. There's a Papa John's at the base of Pantops on Longstreet. That's not Class A. Look at the model they've created. Incredible online ordering not tied to human capital. Incredible offerings and discounting.

Specials. Limited people in the storefront. A storefront that's B or C in price per square foot. Because all you really need is a big enough lobby for someone to come in, pay, and take their pizza. And they want you to leave. They don't want it to be comfortable.

Get out. They don't even offer places for you to sit. I don't know about that. You go into them, they're hot as balls. Seriously. All right. That's the Monday edition of the show. City Council meeting tonight.

We've got a lot we're going to talk about tomorrow. I worry about this town I worry about this town I'm going to close with this I worry about this town because we prioritize 800,000 plus dollars on electric buses when other jurisdictions are sprinting away from them.

Yeah. I worry about this town because we essentially are cock-blocking a private developer from buying a mobile home park and using taxpayer resources to cock-block the private developer. I worry about this town because we cock-blocked the private developer from doing a project on High Street. That was housing.

We cock-blocked the private developer from doing housing on Preston Avenue. That was housing. We cock-bocked the private developer from doing housing on Preston Avenue. That was housing. And now we got leverage out of the wazoo with the private parking lot and parking structure owner. At a time where the future of parking is uncertain at best. At a time when you can

make a legitimate argument that you don't even need the parking. At a time when the city could build parking at Lucky 7 in Guadalajara. That it would own. That it would own. Yeah. That it would own.

Conversations for your cocktail tonight. Judah Wickower, Jerry Miller, the I Love Seville Show. So long. Amen.