The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - What Does Greystar Project Say About Home Ownership?; Albemarle Middle Class Destined To Be Renters?

Episode Date: May 7, 2025

The I Love CVille Show headlines: What Does Greystar Project Say About Home Ownership? Albemarle Middle Class Now Destined To Be Renters? John Blair Compelling Insight On Greystar Project CAAR Q1, 2025 Report: News, Notes & Tidbits VHSL Approves Updated Transgender Sports Policy CVille Biz Spotlight: Vivace Has It Figured Out ACC Men’s Hoops Will Cut 2 Games, Move To 18 Downtown Office 4 Rent: $395 Per Month W/ Utilities Read Viewer & Listener Comments Live On-Air The I Love CVille Show airs live Monday – Friday from 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm on The I Love CVille Network. Watch and listen to The I Love CVille Show on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, iTunes, Apple Podcast, YouTube, Spotify, Fountain, Amazon Music, Audible, Rumble and iLoveCVille.com.

Guys, welcome to the I Love Seaville show. My name is Jerry Miller. Thank you kindly for joining us on a Wednesday, hump day, in downtown Charlottesville. As you know, our studio is located on Market Street. We are less than two miles from the John Paul Jones arena and from Scott Stadium from this Gray Star project and 525 new units coming. We are right around the corner, ladies and gentlemen, from the courthouses, the police department. It kind of, you know, hopskip in the, you know, right in the middle of a lot of the activity that

happens in this 300,000 person region, which we call Central Virginia. To put in the, you know, right in the middle of a lot of the activity that happens in this 300,000 person region, which we call central Virginia. To put in perspective kind of the movers and shakers we see from our perch here on Market Street. I saw John Grisham, the author, walking by the studio. Saw two city councillors walking by the studio, saw two city counselors walking by the studio, saw a judge walking by the studio, a Commonwealth attorney walking by,

two heads of local hedge funds walking by the studio, a real estate magnate, Ludwig Kutner, walking by the studio, a real estate magnate Ludwig Kutner walking by the studio, a couple of restaurateurs and some bankers and that was all the morning. So a lot we're going to cover on the show. Emerson Stern, welcome to the broadcast and thank you kindly for joining us. You're good people. I want to cover on today's show a lot of topics. This is the newspaper of 2025 for Charlottesville. We're gonna talk about the Atlantic Coast Conference

cutting its ACC schedule from 20 games down to 18. That news broke today. We're gonna talk on today's show, the Virginia High School League, the governing body for public school athletics in the Commonwealth of Virginia, updating its transgender sports participation policy. Now the Virginia High School League policy says

the gender you were assigned at birth is the sport that you are allowed to participate in within high school and public school sports. Seems like straightforward common sense to me. But the Virginia High School League is now updated the policy. So we'll have that conversation today. I'm going to take the CAR Q1 2025 report and highlight a couple of tidbits. Tidbits that we're going to talk about on today's show are the Virginia job market for example. It's contracted for two straight months. There were approximately 1,000 fewer jobs statewide in February compared to January. We're seeing some job

contraction in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The unemployment rate in Virginia has risen to 3.3% in February. A year ago it was at 2.9%. So we're about a fourth of a point higher, ladies and gentlemen, at the end of February versus this time last year. In the car footprint, the unemployment rate was 3% in February. It was 2.5% this time last year. In the CAR footprint, the unemployment rate was 3% in February. It was 2.5% this time last year. So we're a half point higher with the unemployment rate in the Charlottesville metro area.

We'll talk about that on today's show, along with some other tidbits that I found compelling from the CAR Q2 footprint. We're gonna talk this question. This is gonna be an uncomfortable one for viewers and listeners. Are the middle class in Al Morrow County now destined to be renters and tenants as opposed to potentially homeowners? Has it gotten so unaffordable and pricey in Al Morrow County that we now have an ecosystem in Alamaro County where the middle class is

Destined to be a renter. We will talk about that today I'm going to highlight two compelling comments from John Blair on the gray star project and will further break down the 525 units that have been the the talk and the toast of Of the greater Charlottesville area. Judah, we'll go to the studio camera and then a two-shot, if you could. First, I want to say I appreciate you. It's been a crazy morning here. As we're doing some renovations at our house, we are reimagining a basement, unfinished

space in a laundry room at Casa de Miller and that's consumed some of the morning attention. Judah, I'm curious of which headline you find most compelling today. I'm still kind of ingesting them. Let's see, I'm curious what the VHSL transgender sports policy is about. This one is one that you would think would be the policy, but it's been called an activist crossfire. The Virginia High School League has now updated its transgender athletic participation policy where high school

students are only allowed to participate in sports based on the gender they were assigned at birth. So a male, someone that was assigned male at birth that chooses to trans a female is now not allowed to participate in girl sports at the Virginia High School League or in public schools across the Commonwealth. That was not previously the case. For example, I found this compelling. The Virginia High School League is made up of 318 member schools in the Commonwealth with more than 177,000 participating students. 177,000 guys. Between October 2020 and December 2024, so a four-year period of time, there was 31 appeals and of those 31 appeals, 22 were for trans boys and nine

for trans girls. All the ones for trans girls were approved. That's when your, let me get this right here, that's when your born female and transitioned to male. All those were approved where you're born female and transitioned to male and were allowed to participate in athletics public school with guys. So is the approval for them to transition or for them to play in the... Oh, it's definitely not approval for transitioning.

No, it's for sports participation. The Virginia High School League is not going to be able to offer approval for human beings to choose which sex they want to be. I get that. You took a long time to explain. So you're just saying that was it nine transitioned? From female to male. To male.

And all nine were approved. Where it gets dicey is the transition from males to females because at that point there's a considerable bigger stronger faster component and we've certainly seen this at the collegiate level with the NCAA. The NCAA now because of pressure from Trump and his administration, the NCAA now says if you're the sex that you're assigned at birth is the sport that you've got to participate in, the classification that you've got to participate in. So the Virginia High School League has followed the NCAA suit here. I've been on this record on, you know, my commentary on this I've been on this record on you know my commentary on this

topic has been on the record for an extended period of time. I do not care if a guy or gal chooses to transition sex. Yeah. I do not care. I think that is a conversation that needs to be had especially if it's a minor doing it with the minor and that minor's parents. I do not think that's a conversation that should be had with the minor. And teachers in school are without parents present. I think parents absolutely should be present

with the conversation if it's a minor. If you're an adult, if you're 18 or over and you wanna transition, okay, so be it. It's your prerogative, okay? You're an adult. You can do it. But if you're under 18 and you're a minor, your parents have to participate in that discussion. Absolutely, that's how I feel. I've also been on the record that at the high school level, at the high school level, if you're born a male and transition into female, and you choose to participate in girls' sports as a male, and you're participating against freshman,

sophomore, junior, and senior girls in high school, it will give you a significant advantage that you're born male. Testosterone, bone density, strength, physicality. In certain sports, that is a massive, massive advantage. Oh, definitely. And I have been on the record on this show in years past that that should not be allowed. Oh yeah. I mean, if you've heard people like Serena Williams,

one of the top tennis players in the world, who said I would not ever want to want to play a male. She wasn't talking about you know anything trans or whatever, but she was saying I don't you know there is a massive difference between a man and a woman in sports and she's like I would get killed on the on the court playing against a man and this is like one of the best tennis players in the world yeah one of the best tennis players of all time someone who's exactly who's who's upside on the tennis court is not just her movement her hands her competitive nature,

but her strength is saying this. Yeah. Okay. So it's an uncomfortable topic. It is just, it's frankly, again, the Trump administration and Trump's influence impacting not just the Commonwealth, but here Charlottesville, here Alamora County, here Monticello, Western Alamora High School, Charlottesville High School, the public schools in the area, Fluvanna, Orange, Green, we're seeing yet again when people say what Trump is doing at the federal level is not going

to impact us at the local level. That's just not the case. That's just not the case. So I give kudos to the Virginia High School League for basically following suit of the NCAA. And for anyone that wants to take what I'm saying out of context, this long form version of the show will not allow you to take what I'm saying out of context, okay? If you're 18 or over and you want to transition gender, go for it. It's your prerogative. I'm all for it, I won't judge.

If you're 17 and under and you want to transition gender, go for it, but make sure your parents are completely involved in that conversation. That has to be a scenario where your parents are participating in the decision making. Go for it, I won't judge. If you and your parents say, you know, want to go down that road, go for it, I won't judge. If you and your parents say, you know, want to go down that road, go for it.

Okay? I am on record saying if you are born a male, transition to a female, you should not be playing women's sports. On record saying that. Okay? And here's where it gets a little dicey, where it gets a little dicey. If you're born a female and you transition male, should you be automatically green lit to play and, and, and, and, and

guys sports? Or is that some hypocrisy? Cause you're not going to allow it on the other side. I think that's a bit hypocritical. That's some hypocrisy, right? Yeah. But you know, Virginia high school league at a four year period of time, anyone that was bored female and transitioned male, they gave a green light to all nine cases where they wanted to participate in male sports. Where they had issue was born male, transitioned female, and then they said, well, you know, we're

not sure we're going to allow this. Yeah. Okay. So I'm with Judah. I think that is some hypocrisy as well. You're going to have to do it even, Steve, and across the board. Yeah. So that's the first headline, a little bit out of order because Judah found that compelling. I also found it compelling guys,

the Virginia High School League caught in a political crossfire in part because of the Trump administration. But what Trump is doing in this regard, I think is for the best. I have a question for everyone. I'm not sure, I don't know the exact details of what goes into a either way transitioning transitioning male to female or female to male. But if a female is taking testosterone,

would that be considered like a performance enhancing drug? I don't have that answer for you. That's a great question. I do not know that. Because in that case, a woman transitioning to a man might get locked out of either male or female sports, just on the basis of that being a way of enhancing whether it's your physicality or whatever else. Great question, that's a great question.

Do not have that answer. Something for us to think about. Yeah, absolutely good question. Bill McChesney, welcome to the broadcast. He says this, William McChesney at McIntyre, he says, Title IX was a provision to give female athletes support to play an equal or similar sport to participate in.

The participation of males as females takes away from that. Ladies fought hard to earn that Title IX distinction. Well said, Bill McChesney. That's a good point. Well said. I appreciate William when he's watching the program. Logan Wells, Claylow, welcome to the broadcast.

All right, let's go to the lead headlines here. The lead headline on the show, ladies and gentlemen, is this discussion we've had for the last couple days of Grey Star and the old Ivy residents on 250 bypass and old Ivy Road. It really gained momentum when that tractor trailer tipped over and material spilled across from Bel Air Market. Oh, before that, I doubt many people were even aware of the greatest hot topic.

I think people were extremely aware because they saw the acreage that had been raised and that was just red Virginia clay, but to Judah's point, they weren't really following it. They kind of raised their eyebrows and said, what's going on here? You know all about these kinds of things, but I drive by stuff like that and I'm just like, oh, they must have torn a building down or, you know, I wonder what's going on there.

But I'll give you that fair enough. I think a lot of people drive by that stuff and are just like, oh, something's happening, but don't really give it to brain cells. I have tremendous, I trust your perspective, so we're going to go with that. We're going to go with what you're saying. We have been talking about it constantly on the I Love C-Val show, but we're going to go with what you said. Well, it's definitely out now.

Oh, TV, radio, and, it's definitely out now. Oh. TV, radio, and print is watching us right now. It's just a matter of time to the Daily Progress television and radio is going to start doing the coverage, because they're sourcing the show for their content cycle. A great example of that is now the Daily Progress and Today is reporting that Mickey Tavern is for sale, which we talked about last Thursday, six days ago. We broke the news last Thursday that Mickey Tavern was for sale, which we talked about last Thursday, six days ago.

We broke the news last Thursday that Mickey Tavern was for sale. Now it's in the newspaper, today. We're following what's going on and have our pulse on things because we're speaking with people. Here's a bit of information that was sent to me. This is from somebody in the big development world that has asked for anonymity, okay? And this particular individual in the big development world says, I cannot speak publicly on this because I'm too close to it, but I can tell you Graystar is paying $22 million for site development on that old IV project. It will be at least a five-year plan before they get to that point.

So this is the type of risk that this international real estate developer that's got holdings in 17 countries is taking. 22 million, someone that's close to it, in site development costs, right? And another risk they have is, when they came to market with this project, did they also anticipate, ladies and gentlemen, that the Verve was gonna be built next to Scott Stadium?

Did they anticipate, that's 1,300 beds? 1,300 beds next to Scott Stadium coming online with this old Ivy project. We talked about this yesterday. Did they anticipate, ladies and gentlemen, that the half a mile down the road next to Moe's Barbecue that there was going to be a massive project by another out of market developer? Did they anticipate that? Up campus doing something? Here's the specs on up campus next to Moe's Barbecue on

Ivy Road, okay? And folks aren't talking about this. The I Love Seaville Show is talking about this, but other...to Judah's point, you're not really hearing about this. Next to Moe's Bar BBQ, Up Campus Student Living has started construction on Bloom, B-L-U-M-E. Where do they get these names? I don't know. Listen to the names of the multifamily projects that have come on market. Take an interesting word and spell it the wrong way. Yeah. Listen to the names here. You've got next to Mo's Barbecue, Bloom. B-L-U-M-E. What the hell is Bloom?

It's an interesting word spelled the wrong way. 200, what do you mean it's spelled the wrong way? Oh, B-L-O-O-M? Yeah. Yeah, okay. So you think that's what they're doing is they're taking a catchy word and spelling it differently because that way they don't have IP infringement issues? You're probably right. That's actually, you're probably right.

Because what else could B-L-U-M-E be? Is B-L-U-M-E a word? No. I'm Googling. B-L-U-M-E. Put an umlaut on it and make it like really cool. They, uh, I wouldn't think. Bloom. Can you spell, is it umlaut? Umlaut? Yeah can you spell it? U-M-L-A-U-T. Very good. He's a wizard with spell in judo. I took German in junior high and part of high school. He also has the balance of a mountain lion. I've seen this guy atop of like 12 foot ladders standing with one leg on the ladder, reaching to change the light bulb and not fearful of falling.

He has the balance of a billy goat and a mountain lion. I know about the not fearful of falling part. Alright, I'm getting us distracted. I apologize. Next to Mo's BBQ, and make sure you have the lower thirds, the right lower thirds on screen. The lower third that we should have on screen would probably be, man, we don't have one specific to this. You know, pick one of the first, pick the one you most see applicable that we should have on screen would probably be, man, we don't have one specific to this. You know, pick one of the first,

pick the one you most see applicable that we have, okay? Next to Moe's Barbecue, Up Campus is an out of market developer. They've obtained construction financing for the project. The project is gonna be called Bloom. It's 231 units and 641 beds. It's luxury student housing development next to Moe's BBQ. It's ready to open in 2027.

Set to open in 2027. Okay? They are getting financing. Fifth, third bank provided the senior debt and additional participation from First Citizens Bank, TSB Capital Advisors as well. No, TSB Capital Advisors represented the borrower, but First Citizens Bank has also provided financing. You have 10 stories next to Moe's Barbecue.

Those 10 stories will encompass one, two, three and four bedroom, four plants. The exterior and interior amenities span more than 20,000 square feet. That's next to most. That's coming online within half a year, within six months of what's going on at Grey Star, which is 525 units. And then we got Verve. And then you got the Grey Star project is called Old Ivy Residences. I like that of the three project names, the brands. The Old Ivy Residences to me resonates with the community the most.

And interestingly, and perhaps not coincidentally, it's also by the most experienced of all the developers, Grey Star. Then you got the Verve, that's being done by Subtext. Subtext, ladies and gentlemen, which targets student, college, university markets, is doing a 12-story project with more than 1,300 beds next to Scott Stadium, 25,000 square feet of amenity space, developed with joint venture equity partner, Kane Anderson Real Estate.

They're talking that this project, which is going to be geared for students as well, is going to be coming on market at exactly the same window in time that the Grey Star project is coming on and that the Bloom project is gonna be coming on. So within this one stretch, this period of time, you have 525 units at Grey Star, 1,300 plus beds or 463 units at Verve, and then you have a massive project next to Moe's all while UVA is welcoming second years, insisting that second years live on grounds in the year 2027.

This is risk. So not only do you have 22 million in site development, someone that is in this business DMed us and said that's the cost. But it's taken so long to get to this point that when they are cracking ground and coming to market, they got the Elysian, is it the Elysian? Elysian? They got the Elysian in Stonefield that's half full. They got a project next to Scott Stadium that's coming on market at exactly the same time they are. And then they got a project half a mile Stadium that's coming on market at exactly the same time they are. And then they got a project half a mile away that's coming on market six months later than

they are. And it's all happening while the Virginia Department of Transportation is redoing a bridge and regutting the roads, the entry point to their massive project on the bypass gray stars. So look at the risk that they had. It's been in the works for so long with Alamaro County trying to get approvals, trying to get permitting, trying to go through government red tape.

They probably wouldn't want to do it at this time, but this is the risk of development. Not just the money, but the time and the risk of something taking forever to come to fruition. Right. So something superseding it in the meantime. Right. So when people say, and you know I've made these comments that they're going after just an obscene amount of money for rent, I think the average is going to be about $3,500 a month. I'm basing that $3,500 a month as being a landlord myself.

I own a three-bedroom, two-bath rental property in the villas at Southern Ridge. That three-bedroom, two-bath rental property in the villas at Southern Ridge, a converted apartment complex, is not nearly as nice of what Grey Star is going to do or the Verve is going to do or Bloom is going to do. And that rents for $2,500 a month all day every day and twice on Sunday and there's a waiting list. And each year that rent up ticks 5%. 5%. Every year it goes up 5%. Okay? So if I can get a three‑bedroom bath down 5th Street extended off country green off old Lynchburg Road across from the Oak Hill market which is not nearly as close to the epicenter of grounds, not nearly as close to the heart of UVA.

Bloom is on grounds. It's right next to the data science school, right? Gray Star and its project is pretty darn close on grounds. It's right next to the data science school, right? Grey Star and its project is pretty darn close to grounds. The Verve project is on grounds next to Scott Stadium. The Villa Southern Ridge, it takes you about eight to ten minutes to get to grounds and I'm getting at 2,500 a month. By the time the Grey Star project is delivering units for RET, time the gray star project is delivering units for rent, it's a build for rent, the village at southern ridge will have gone through two additional 5% rent escalator cycles. So the first one is going to get you $2,500 plus $125 a month, 5% escalator, $2,625 a month. Then another 5% escalator gets you over $2,750 a month. I'm convinced that that $3,500 a month average,

that metric that I utilize may even be light because they have some three bedroom detached houses and the 525 and the number of the 525 units, they have some three bedroom detached homes in that development that are going to command well more than 3,500. Now, what may pull that number down is the one bedroom apartments that they're running. This leads me to some commentary from number two in the family. I think we should get his photo on screen, John Blair. Smart man. Man I trust. Man who – there's viewers and listeners that are in the top ten of this family, that when they offer commentary on the show, I take it as if it was the book of Leviticus, the book of Job, Matthew, Mark, Luke and John, Axe, Romans and ‑‑ what's it? Matthew, Mark, Luke and John, Axe, Romans. What's next? Do you know? I used to know the

song. My favorite book is Deuteronomy. I love to say Deuteronomy. I was more of a fan of the New Testament than the Old Testament. The Old Testament, when they started writing the Bible, Genesis, I always found Genesis to be a little dry. Genesis could have been much more dynamic. I mean, we're talking about the Genesis of the world here. Have you ever read through Chronicles? When they got to the New Testament with Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John, man, there was some crazy stuff happening in the New Testament. You had ladies of the night washing Jesus's feet with her hair. You had men betraying the

Savior of the world for gold coins. You had sex. You had blood. You had crime. You had after-hours activity. There wasn't a whole lot of sex in the... Oh, there was sex. Explicit in the New Testament? What was Mary Magdalene's job? What was Mary Magdalene's job? Are we really getting into the weeds here? What was her job? Do you know her job?

No, I don't know her actual job. Was it Mary Magdalene, a woman of the night? There were several Marys. Mary Magdal Magdalene, a woman of the night? There were several Marys. Mary Magdalene may have been a woman of the night. Mary Magdalene was a woman of the night. I don't believe she continued that profession once she became a disciple. No, obviously she did not. I'm literally Googling, what did Mary Magdalene do for a living. Mary

Magdalene livelihood is not explicitly described in the Bible but she was likely from a wealthy family involved in local fishing industry. Maybe she wasn't one of the women's of the night. There like I said there are several Marys. Which is the Mary that washed Jesus's feet with her hair? I believe that was Mary Magdalene. She had a She didn't just wash his hair. She poured extremely expensive perfume to wash his feet. And several of the people with them were like, whoa, you could have sold that and fed a village for a month. And Chris was like, step back. Look at how the show has digressed here. We got to

talking about the top ten in the family and when they leave a comment on the show, I take their comments as if they're the spoken word and now we're talking about Mary Magdalene watching Jesus' feet. John Blair is one of the men and women in the top ten when he leaves a comment I take it as the spoken word. He offered two comments this week that I had not considered on the gray star 525 unit project. I'll give you the first comment that gives some historical context to what Alamaro County's government, its Board of Supervisors did to make this project a reality and the hoops and hurdles, the red tape that

Grey Star had to jump through to get this project to just have ground crack, the first shovel in the ground. So this is from John from a couple days ago when we started talking about this. The big problem with this project is that the property was rezoned in 1985 with a proffer that it would never have a density greater than R1 until old Ivy Road was approved to the satisfaction of the board of supervisors. Therefore, this rezoning did not have to be approved as a proffer as the force of law. The Board of Supervisors could have relied on that proffer

and not up zone. In 2023, the Board of Supervisors made the decision to obliterate that prior proffer and up zone the property. People need to know that context. There has not been any serious improvement to old Ivy since 1985. The Board of Supervisors had the ability to deny Grey Star the rezoning based on that proffer. Instead, the Board of Supervisors voted to up zone. Legally, the Board of Supervisors could negate the proffer, but it did not have to. And the proffer gave Grey Star the ability to say no

to the, and the proffer gave Graystar the ability to say no to the ‑‑ and the proffer gave the board of supervisors the ability to say no to the rezoning. So we should break that down. Go ahead. So essentially the board of supervisors should have fixed ‑‑ should have fixed IVY before allowing Graystar to move in. There it is. Because then we wouldn't have Tractor Trailers trying to make U-turns and go under bridges because they got lost or whatever.

There it is. There's good context from number two in the family. He said, and these are my words, these are my words, these are not John's words. I just read you John's words. I'm gonna now give you my words. These are my words. These are not John's words. I just read you John's words. I'm going to now give you my words. This was a mistake by the board of supervisors. Why it was a mistake is they should have insisted that VDOT or maybe in conjunction ‑‑ I don't know if they're able to do this in conjunction with Grey Star.

With Grey Star or the Virginia Department of Transportation regardless they should have insisted that the roads, the entry points were up to today's standards and speeds and not the standards and speeds of 1985. 40 years ago. 40 years ago, Ivy in Alamaro County looked completely different. But the Board of Supervisors, because they caved to pressure from housing activists locally, chose locally chose to up zone this pocket of Alamaro County and allow a developer that's international that's got 73 billion in assets under management across 17 countries, 73 billion, Grey Star does, has no real local ties to Charlottesville, although they do own some other properties in Charlottesville. Cobalt Ridge is another Grey Star-owned property, by the way. Cobalt Ridge is owned by Grey Star. But the Board of Supervisors caved to

activist pressure. And because of that piss-poor foresight or because of that piss poor foresight, or because of that piss poor management, we now have this logjam going on. Yeah. OK. Now the second comment, and those were my words, John offered it very clearly, succinctly, and without opinion. He just gave a recap of what happened.

Today he offers this. Today on the I love Seville network I highlight the upside revenue wise for Grey Star. I did a back of the napkin business model of what Grey Star could be making. I used the $3,500 a month rent for the 525 units. I'm convinced that that 3500 average is light. Okay, I'm convinced that it's light. But I'm gonna use the 3500 because I wanna build a conservative model. I said if you have 525 units

and you times it by 3,500 a month in rent, then you're gonna be collecting $1,837,500 per month in rent, then you're going to be collecting $1,837,500 per month in rent. That's your rent roll. You take that $1,837,500, Judah, and you times it by 12 months in a year, and your top line rents, your gross rents are $22,050,000 collected in one year. You times that by 10 years, and you basically have a quarter of a billion dollars in one year. You times that by ten years and you basically have a quarter of a billion dollars in rent collection. 220 million 500 thousand in rent collection and it's frankly speaking over a quarter of a

billion because when I did my calculations I did not factor in I didn't want to spend the time doing this. Someone like Deep Throat or Deep Throat's son, High Voice could have figured this out right away. I didn't want to, I didn't spend the time factoring the 5% yearly escalator. I just took the rent from year one and I used that as the total for a 10 year model. And that 10 year model gives you $220,500,000. Frankly, with the 5% escalator,

you're well over a quarter billion dollars in the first decade for Grey Star. Then I learned, I'm going to get to John's comments after doing that, I learned from somebody today in direct message faction, always sending me more DMs, I like that. More direct message from someone who's very close to the project, who does development of this scale. This gentleman who asked for anonymity, and one of the reasons if you watch the program that I get a lot of information and know a lot of what's going on in this program is

people can trust me. They know if they ask for discretion or anonymity or I keep my name out of it, I keep their name out of it, I do. So I'm going to do it again with this case. This particular person says, I cannot speak publicly, but I will let you know that Grey Star is paying $22 million for site development on those old Ivy residences. $22 million. I asked him, what does that $22 million include? He says, that is all infrastructure, roads and sidewalks and rerouting the Ribana Trail.

And he says that, okay, I'm not going to say his last bubble because I want to respect his anonymity here, but I will take a version of his last bubble and say that he is very close to this project. He's very close to this project. So $22 million for infrastructure, roads and sidewalks and rer rerouting the Ravana Trail. That's just site work. That's not the 525 units. Right. That's getting, it's like when you're building a house and you're building a house and you

have a lot, you're getting the site ready before you start building. But this just happens to be at the scale of 525 units and it's costing $22 million, a number confirmed by somebody who's at the table. Look at the risk the developer is taking. So when I say, look at the rents they're charging and everyone including me is like, good God, this is extremely expensive rent. When Greystar comes out at a 3,500 a month average, little guys like me are just going

to take their rents on their holdings and raise them too. I'll tell you a story. Here's a story about this, okay? I have 24 executive offices that we, Judah and I, and our team own and manage. 24 executive offices, okay? We are the largest holder of executive offices in Albemarle and in Charlottesville. Our 24 units, okay? We have been doing the executive office rental game for almost 12 years. 12 years in August of next year. I know that because the first deal I did was a seller finance deal where I was able to

negotiate a 12-year term on a 20-year schedule. And I paid off that note prior to the 12-year term, but I still remember the first deal I did was a 12-year term. And that 12-year term was set to expire a year from August, so August 2026. We've been doing this for basically 11 years. Okay, Judah? We have had a rent structure for 24, for almost 12 years, 11 years, that for the large portion of that time was 5% increase each year, 5% increase this year, except one circumstance or turn of events completely changed that rent structure and jumped them 30% in one year.

Do you know what that circumstance was? COVID. Partially right. During COVID, friend of the program, fantastic squash player, one of the top philanthropists in Charlottesville, and the number one donor of money

to the University of Virginia. A man that is on the, what do you call it, the bus with the presidents? Mount Rushmore of UVA. Jeffrey Woodruff presidents? The Mount Rushmore of UVA. Jeffrey Woodruff is on the Mount Rushmore of UVA. During the pandemic, he built the code building. And when he brought the code building, which is the Bentley, the Rolls Royce of commercial

real estate in Charlottesville and Elmora County. That is the Rolls Royce of commercial real estate of Charlottesville, and Elmora County. That is the Rolls Royce of Commercial Real State of Charlottesville and Elmora County. And he added, as a dynamic to the code building, the Center of Developing Entrepreneurs code, the Center of Developing Entrepreneurs, he added a co-working space and executive offices. Those executive offices are renting

for $1,500 plus a month. When that project came online during the pandemic, that project single-handedly jumped executive office space rent 30%. We single-handedly, year, when spaces came open in our 24 unit portfolio, we said, oh my goodness, look at what's going on over there. I'm going to charge 30% more than I was charging last year for this office that's coming for rent and let's see what happens.

And they always go there first and then they come here next. They're like, wow, this is affordable compared to that and we keep it full. That jumped executive office rent rolls 30% in a calendar year once that building came to market. So our prediction and then I get to John Blair's comments, his second comment that I found compelling. Our prediction is with Grey Star having $22 million in costs for site work, according to this gentleman who's at the table.

That's before they even frame a building. Right. Grey Star, the risk they have of all these other projects coming online at the same time, second years required to live on grounds in 2027. UVA is building housing for second years right next to Grey Star on Ivy Road in that Ivy corridor. That Grey Star is going to have to command a top dollar rent and this project that housing activists swore was going to breed affordability and the concept is more supply stabilizes prices, breeds affordability. What they never anticipated, however, was the population increase happening when the

additional supply was coming on market. The activists that were screaming more supply, more supply, stabilized prices, stabilized prices, more supply, never anticipated data science school and Paul Banning Biotech Institute, UVA enrolling more people, and Charlottesville and Alamaro County being one of the most coveted places to live in the entire country. Never anticipated population increase, never.

And this additional supply that's coming to market is not supply that's breeding affordability, it's supply that's commanding top dollar, and it's taking all the class B, the weak class A, the class B and the class C holdings and landlords, and it's bringing them with them. Like Jaffrey's code building took our 24 unit executive office portfolio with his Bentley of commercial real estate. Right.

That's the same thing that's going to happen here. It will not breed affordability. So this leads me to John Blair's second comment. His second comment today I really found compelling. I thought it was effing fantastic, John. He says, this was this morning. Jerry, here's an interesting question. John, you made me think.

I want to be challenged. I want to be challenged. I want to be challenged, okay? I want Judah to challenge me. I want Deep Throat to challenge me. I want all you guys to challenge me. I want to be challenged. I want to be the dumbest guy in the room. I want to be the dumbest guy in the room.

I crave being the dumbest guy in the room. I crave it. He says, Jerry, it's an interesting question. Here's an interesting question. While I typically support housing, the Verve is a great project by Scott Stadium, in my opinion. He also says the new units next to Dunlora

are a great project. There are a couple of serious policy questions here. First, while infrastructure is a common refrain for not in my backyards, for NIMBYs, Ivy and Old Ivy Road are not designed for a major increase in traffic. Right now, there are issues with JPJ events backing up Ivy Road with the current traffic counts.

John also says, Old Ivy is a serious mess already at certain times of the day. Look at St. Anne's-Belfield. Second, this type of build-to-rent concept is different than normal multifamily. Listen to this. This type of build-to-rent concept is different than normal multifamily. The traditional idea of housing at this price point is ownership and a bit of independence, as malleable as that term may be. Are we really getting to a point in Alamaro County

where home ownership is simply unattainable for all but the top 10%? Put the Alamaro County middle class, lower third on screen if you could please, sir. Okay, that's one of the headlines, that's on there. Put that headline on screen. John Blair continues, that's what this project indicates. Mike Pruitt, Almoore County Board of Supervisors, and he tags Mike Pruitt on LinkedIn in the

comment section on my page, guys, is a bright guy who understands housing. Mike Pruitt is a bright guy. I hope he hears that I say that. I'd really love to see Mike Pruitt on your show to talk about this. This price point, this gray star price point, this $3,500 a month price point should be disturbing to anyone in Alamora County because in my opinion it's really saying that A, middle class folks have no shot at home ownership, forget working class and less resource folks. And B, it's just concentrating more and more power and wealth in the top 1%. Let's unpack his comment. Then we're gonna go to deep throat's comments coming in. We have

television, radio, and print all watching the show right now. James Watson, I'm coming to you next. Let's unpack John Blair's comments on this show. John, they were awesome. I sincerely mean this, dude. Thank you. OK, so A, middle class folks, do they have a shot at home ownership right now? And I got to caveat this for John. It's different if you're middle class, Judah, and you've owned a home for an extended period of time,

in particular before COVID. You can be middle class, and if you held a home, if you owned a home since before COVID, you're sitting on massive equity. You're middle class, but you have a valve or an avenue to potentially upper class wealth, which is the equity in your home. Now, if you tap into that equity or you cash out of that, you cash into that equity, then you may not have a place to live. Because you're buying into this expensive market, but you do have hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars in disposal at your fingertips. The average home has appreciated 45% since the pandemic until now, 45%. So I'm gonna take the middle class

that is already homeowners out of this equation. I'm gonna now consider the middle class that is a first time home buyer. Right. And the middle class that is a first time home buyer, the median family household income and the Charlottesville metro area is what? 125.8. That's good. I'm going to ask you that question twice a week so it's burning to your brain.

125,800 is the median household income according to HUD. So do we say middle class in Charlottesville in the metro area is 125,800? It's the median. It could have two earners, each clocking $60K, $61, $62K, right? Yeah. Which is probably, maybe that's the case. But middle class in Charlottesville,

are we going to say it's $125,800? Because that's what HUD says is the median family household income? So let's say that you're two, you're a family, you have two earners, okay. And you're trying to buy a house and it's 125,800 is your earning potential is your, is, is, is, is the take for the family. Can that 125,800 take for the family,

buy a house in Almaro County anymore? Or have we become a house in Almaro County anymore? Or have we become a county, Almaro, that is so gentrified and affluent that if you're middle class, you're destined for a $3,500 a month piece of rental product from Grey Star. Grey Star's no dummies. They're doing 22 million in site work alone. This entire project is costing them ‑‑ God, will the man who sends me the direct message help me out here? What is an entire project ‑‑ John, do you know this? This is out of my pay grade. Deep Throat, do you know this? What is 525 units for Grey Star going to cost them to

bring to market? Is that over a billion ‑‑ is that $500 million? I do not know that. I don't even have a context or a comparison for that. I don't know how much that would cost. How much deep throw? Do you know that? How much that costs? I'm getting bubbles from the man that's asking for anonymity here. Maybe he has that number. I would love to know what the total cost is for the 525 units for old IV residents. I have no idea. Literally no idea. I got Deep Throat sending in commentary. He says I think you would have to believe they would be paying at least 200 square foot in hard costs. The guy who sent me the 22 million in site work says I don't know the answer to how much the build out would be. Deep throat, do you have give me a

whole a hard number of what you think this would be. John do you have any idea of what this hard number would be? I would love to know the hard number on this. Okay so are we in a world where the middle class Albemoro Countian that's never purchased a home, that does not have a home to sell, where they can tap into that equity to buy another house? The first time middle class Alamoro Countian, first time home buyer, middle class Alamoro Countian, is no longer able to buy a house and is destined to live in a

525 unit rent to build product. There's a reason Grey Star is doing this. They're not doing build to buy. They're not doing build to buy. They're doing build to rent. Why are they doing build to rent? Why are they doing build to rent? Because they want to own your ‑‑ because they don't want to sell you something. Because they know there's a shit load of people in Almarra County and Charlottesville that are priced out of being able to buy a home. And they know that there's a shit load of people in Almarra County and Charlottesville that are priced out of being able to own a home

that want to live in the epicenter of employment that will pay this $3,500 a month and that's top dollar because they have no other choice because we need a place to live. They have them by the short and curleys. They're not going to sell you something. They'll take your money for the rest of your life. John Blair says thank you for your kind comments. You are 100% correct. There's a huge difference in the middle class that owned a home before COVID and the middle class that's trying to buy a home today.

John, your comments had me thinking the entire morning. Deep Throat's got some, I really would love to, here's Deep Throat. I would guess for the 525 units, and I can guarantee you that Deep Throat's done some modeling before setting this over. I would guess for the 525 units, 150 to 200 million in hard costs, 22 million in site prep work we know from the guy on your show, 5 to 10 million in land acquisition costs and probably another 25 million in soft costs beyond site prep. So I would call it somewhere between 200 and $250 million for the total development project. $200 to $250 million.

Look at the effing risk these people are taking. They've been trying to work this project for years. They had, what's the attorney from Williams Mullen, Valerie Long? They had Valerie Long on retainer. She's the, I hope Valerie hears this. She's damn good at her job. She's the Bentley and Mercedes Benz of land use and of getting projects approved by local governments. If you want something approved, you're going to go the Schimp Engineering and Justin Schimp and you're going to get Valerie Long on your side. And every dollar

that you're going to spend with Schimp and Valerie, it's going to cost you your arm, your leg, and a couple of ear lobes from your children. But that arm, that leg, and your children, van goad, is going to get your project approved. You van goad your kids, your project is going to get approved. Van goad didn't have an ear, right? Did he have an ear cut off? He cut off an ear eventually. Yeah. So you want to work with Justin and Valerie, you're going to cut off your arm and your leg and you're going to Vincent Van Gogh your children. Arm and a leg and an ear and that's going to get their bill covered. But they'll get your project approved. That's soft cost right there. Okay. Look at the risk these people are taking. It's insane. So when we say they're charging top dollar for rent and they are, and when you bring 525 units, this is another thing

that we need to realize what's going to happen. Judah, when 525 units at Graystar come to market at the exact same time, right? 525 units come to market at the exact same time as subtext ‑‑ you got your calculator on your phone? I got my trusty calculator on my Apple Watch. 525, gray star, 463 the verve, 988 ‑‑ I got it right now. I'm using trusty Apple Watch, 988 for the Verve and Graystar. And then next up, Mo's, 231. That's a total of 1,219. You're telling me and I'm not saying collusion, I'm not using the word collusion, but you're telling me that Bloom next to Moe's and Verve next to Scott Stadium and old Ivy Resonance next to the Bypass, those teams are not going

to research data that's readily available online, pricing indication or rental numbers, and use all that as comps or comparables of where they're going to set their price points, that's not collusion, that's research. And that research of 1,219 units coming to market within a six-month period of time will radically change the tenant and rental landscape in Charlottesville, Virginia and in Alamaro County, ladies and gentlemen. One thousand two hundred and nineteen luxury units coming to market at exactly the same time will radically change, ladies and gentlemen, cost of living in Charlottesville and Alamaro

County. And how we've gotten to this point is piss poor foresight and management from government. That's how we've gotten to this point. They don't see the force through the trees of what happens when 1,219 units come to market at the exact same time. With a boatload of floating debt associated with each project in an immediacy for return on investment. Deep Throat's got some comments I need to get through.

He says projects, this is number one in the family, projects like old Ivy residences also don't help affordability because they bring new people to town. There is not a big market for 3,500 a month rentals among people who live around here. This is all for newcomers. I've read that some of it is aimed at the 55-plus community. These people who move in will consume huge amounts of locally produced services. Where do those service workers live? We are just digging a deeper and deeper hole.

Deep Throat also adds this. If you want affordability, it requires building in a way that shifts only the supply curve, not the demand curve. These kinds of projects absolutely shift the demand curve. He says that's what a lot of derp, derp, derp, supply and demand econ 101 Econ 101 is commentary from economically illiterate socialist morons. I will add to his point, all these activists are using this supply and demand buzzwords. It's like, when was that? What was the lady that ran and she didn't have a good showing?

She came on the I Love Cibo show. She ran for city council. Her last name was Washington. Yeah, sort of the, what was it, T or Z or something, Zan. There was a candidate that ran for city council, lovely young lady looking to make a difference in our community. She ran for city council the election cycle when Nakaya Walker dropped out of the race pursuing her second term. Okay, and her last name I believe was Washington and she

came on the show. I said I want to give you a platform. We have a yes. Yes. Yeah. Yes, Washington. Yes, man and Yasmin Washington came on our show and I sat across from her from an hour and an hour of speaking with her, she used every buzzword. It was like word salad. I'm literally sitting across from her, and I'm like, I had no, it was like, this is just word salad. Do you remember the interview?

I mean, she was on a couple times, wasn't she? It was just, it wasn't saying anything. It was saying a lot to say very little. And that's when they're saying supply and demand, more housing breeds affordability. They're not nuanced in their expertise or knowledge of what they're talking about. Yeah. They may have paid attention in Ken Elzinga's econ class, but they don't understand the nuanced aspects of the market.

And I'm by no means an expert, but I do it professionally for a living. And I explain to everyone that if you make the dirt more opportunistic by taking away its zoning classification, you're making the dirt more opportunistic for people, that you're going to attract speculators. And the speculators you attract are going to drive up the cost of the dirt when they purchase. And when they drive up the cost of the dirt when they purchase, that's gonna mean the product

they produce is gonna be expensive to cover the debt service of making the project acquiring the dirt, the soft costs, the holding costs, the permitting, the floating debt, the debt service. So the product that would be delivered would be far from affordable. And when you deliver a product that's far from affordable at a time when you live in a community that's coveted where people want to move to, where demand population increases upticking, and it's upticking for a number of reasons.

Data Science School, Paul Manning Biotech Institute, it's just an effing awesome place to live. The quality of life is great, that's why we live here. Then the people coming here are just gonna take the new inventory and force the people that are barely hanging on out. Because the people that are barely hanging on out. Because the people that are barely hanging on, their rents are just going to continue to rise because they're being grabbed by the new inventory that's come to market.

And it's like a freighter ship. It's the momentum that comes with it. And wait till you see what happens in a one-year period of time when, ladies and gentlemen, when 1,219 units come to market in a year, wait till you see what that momentum does to rents in this area. And when that happens, we have nobody to blame but the activists and the elected officials that put us in this position. In 12 months when rents jump because of these projects, we have no one to blame but the

activists and elected officials that put us in this position. So just to play devil's advocate. I'm not going to say I told you so. Maybe I will a couple times. Just to play devil's advocate. I'm not gonna say I told you so. Maybe I will a couple times. I'm not saying anything about you being wrong. This is what Judas Devil's advocate is going to be. It's going to be a glut of inventory coming to market at the exact same time while the Elysian and Stonefield is empty. And if we have a glut of inventory coming to market at the same time while the Elysian and Stonefield is half empty, maybe that glut of inventory will create a price battle and get the sales representatives and the teams,

the sales side of these teams, to start slashing price instead of raising price. And that could create a trickle-down effect to the small landlords. That's what Judah was about to say. Am I right? Massimino. Okay. I am right.

Kind of. That's what you were going to say. And my response to that would be we have not seen the impact of Paul Manning Biotech Institute or the data science school yet. We haven't seen it. And just take a look at the Elysian, which hasn't lowered the prices, despite the fact that they haven't filled all their rooms.

God, you're really doing well on this show of late. Thank you. Like really doing well. I would of late. Thank you. Like really doing well. I would do this all the time. Like a competency for business that I just love. The Elysian is not cutting its price. Right. If none of them cut the price, that's the price.

Yeah. We're talking well capitalized outfits here. They know what they want. They're not, this isn't, you know, this isn't gonna be a home that's been on the market for... They're not selling El Caminos on a dirt parking lot. That's not even a house that's been on the market. Looking to cover the rent for the dealership. That's not what they're doing. They're not selling Ford Taurus's and El Caminos and beat up explorers on a pothole-ridden dirt parking lot looking to keep the sign on on the dealership

and have to sell the car today to get the money to pay the electric bill. That's not what's happening. And I swear, I'm only going to say I told you so a few times. He's lying. He'll say it a lot. You probably will. There's no doubt in my mind I will say it right. Deep Throat's got some comments. Ginnyhoo, thank you for the retweet. We appreciate you Ginnyhoo. I got other comments coming in that we're going to get to.

Goodness gracious, it's 1.40 p.m. We got to go make some money. Deep Throat says, the difference between Judah's perspective and your perspective is the time scale. If developers hit market with a lot of product all at once, you might get a dip in rents, but the long-term effect can be the other way. You might get a dip in rents, but hold on. But the long-term effect can be the other way via the demographic change the product

brings about. Once inventory is absorbed, you now have a richer community which has more amenities that attract rich people. Short term versus long term. By the way, the simply supply curve, demand curve, framework abstracts away time. Great comments right there. All right, I need a look at, Bill McChesney says, is Grey Star looking to capture the boomers

leaving single family homes to transition to assisted living facilities or more live play facilities. Gen X and Gen Z are, say, moving out into like old trails or old IV residences. That's a great comment. A lot of people want to get out of the home ownership game as they get older and get into a rental game because the landlord takes care of everything. They can take the 100,000s of dollars

that they have in equity, put it into index funds, very safe investments and not have any risk like the HVAC is gonna blow or the roof needs to be replaced. And if anything that happens, they just pick up the phone and call. I love having, I love doing the show with you guys. I sincerely mean that the show. I love doing with you guys.

I love learning from you. James Watson. Maybe James Watson's a smart guy. Maybe Virginia is going from a quaint town, medium-sized state school to an Ohio State, Florida State model. They're now paying all this huge money for football and basketball players in the millions, and we're starting to see that, see these humongous student complexes as opposed to the old houses that were always on JPA. The area is seeming to follow a model

that is similar in many large state schools where there's a lot less charm and more chain restaurants everywhere you look. When I went to UVA, started as a first year in August of 2000, I stayed every year. I never went home. I stayed all winter break. I stayed all summer break. The best time at UVA is winter break.

The second best time of UVA is summer break, because there's a lot less people here, and you get to know everybody. The intimacy was so romantic. But I went after my first year of living in Dabney, Old Dorms, the summer before my second year. I lived off of Jefferson Park Avenue in Shamrock on Shamrock Road.

And me and a fraternity brother lived in a house on Shamrock Road and we paid like $250 a month in rent. And all those apartment towers on Jefferson Park Avenue, they were not there. They were not there. As students, we lived in old, rickety, broken down houses. There wasn't the standard, there wasn't the flats,

there certainly wasn't the verve and bloom and old ivy residences and all these other towers that have popped up. You lived in broken down jalopies. And you lived in the broken down jalopies because they were good locations and you can stumble home away from the bars. I mean, those used to be great places.

They were great places. I wouldn't have had it any other way. I would never have thought to have lived in an apartment tower, a cookie cutter apartment tower, just like when I was in when my dad would come in here and say, let's go to Chili's, or let's go to Applebee's, or let's go to Outback. I would say that I would rather not eat than eat be seen at a chain. And we would squabble and beef back and forth over that. Now that Jenna say quah, now that commitment to charm, that commitment to to to nostalgia, Now that commitment to charm, that commitment to nostalgia, and that commitment to Main Street Charlottesville is gone. Pandemic eviscerated it.

Now it's dollar dollar bills, y'all. Hour and 15 minutes straight on this talk show without taking a break. There's no other Content provider that's giving you content like that Christopher B. Jones says I love your analogies Jerry. Thank you. I try it we try to go with the mindset of entertain Enlighten educate with the show enlighten, educate with the show.

Entertain, enlighten, and educate with the best and worst of the Charlottesville, Virginia area. All right, I gotta get some items out of the notebook and then we're gonna skedaddle to go make some money and find some incremental revenue while keeping current clients pleased, happy, and well-serviced. That's the key to building a business is incremental revenue must be prioritized

at the same commitment that current clients are serviced and kept pleased. A lot of people prioritize incremental revenue over the communication and happiness of current clients. That's how you go out of business. I've been doing this for 17 years. The Atlantic Coast Conference, this news broke before the show.

The Atlantic Coast Conference is going to move to an 18 game schedule, if you put that lower third on screen, down from 20 games. So this year, 18 game schedule, not 20. That means UVA will play Virginia Tech twice a season and the rest of the conference teams just once. UVA is gonna play Virginia Tech twice in men's basketball.

That's men's basketball ladies and gentlemen, and the other teams just once. I'm gonna save the CAR Q1 2025 report and use notes and tidbits for tomorrow. And I will highlight this, Vavachi Restaurant, as you put that lower third on screen, Vavachi Restaurant has it dialed in. This portion of the segment presented by our division Charlottesville business brokers, Vivace Restaurant has an absolutely dialed in.

This locally owned restaurant has got outdoor seating, it's got a bar, it's got a fantastic cocktail lounge, multiple hosts and hostess at the stand, it's got a bar. It's got a fantastic cocktail lounge multiple hosts and hostess at the stand It's got a second floor. It's got a first floor inside dining. It's got alfresco dining. It's got parking It's got a fantastic location The menu is priced right the food comes out quickly the service with a smile and pleasant it is damn good food I hope the Vivace team hears us. They got a great happy hour They got free popcorn. You see the who's who of OG Charlottesville at Vivace restaurant. And Vivace restaurant ladies and gentlemen, I want to commend for just doing business the right way. They do it right.

Judah Wickauer has been doing it really right of late. My name is Jerry Miller, and this is the I Love Seville Show...