The I Love CVille Show With Jerry Miller! - Woody Fincham Joined Keith Smith & Jerry Miller On "Real Talk With Keith Smith!"

Episode Date: January 31, 2025

Woody Fincham, Owner of Fincham & Associates, Inc., joined Keith Smith & Jerry Miller on “Real Talk With Keith Smith” powered by YES Realty Partners and Yonna Smith! “Real Talk” airs every Mo...nday, Wednesday and Friday from 10:15 am – 11 am on The I Love CVille Network! “Real Talk With Keith Smith” is presented by Charlottesville Settlement Company, LLC, El Mariachi Mexican Bar & Grill, Fincham & Associates, Inc., Free Enterprise Forum, Intrastate Service Co and YES Realty Partners.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 guys welcome real talk with Keith Smith my name is Jerry Miller thank you kindly for joining us on a Friday in downtown Charlottesville. It's great to connect with you through the I Love Seville network where we have aggregated 15 Facebook pages, 15 Twitter accounts, YouTube, LinkedIn, Spotify, iTunes, Apple Podcasts, Rumble, pretty much every social media platform known to mankind. Then we archive the content on iloveseville.com and realtalkwithkeefsmith.com and in a number of other websites that are associated with this network. Today's program is one where we want you to be, you know, join us in the conversation. We want you, the viewer and listener, to ask questions. We have experts in the studio. Keith Smith has been in the game since 19, is it 87? 1887. 1987, not 1883 with Tim McGraw and Faith Hill. The Paramount Plus show that was absolutely fantastic.
Starting point is 00:01:10 I mean, anything Taylor shared and touches appears to turn to gold. The man's got the minus touch. And we have two other variations of the Yellowstone brand and series soon to come to fruition. I can tell by Woody Fincham's body language that he perked up when this topic came up. Perhaps we'll pick Woody's big brain about this. But we're going to talk real estate. We're going to talk assessments. We'll talk Lake Monticello. We'll talk data, a boatload of data. Judah's going to check his Facebook Messenger when he has a chance. And we'll go to the studio camera and set up a three-shot here for a cast of characters that
Starting point is 00:01:44 needs no introduction, but I'll do it anyway. Keith Smith, the star of the show, the namesake. His name is on the marquee. Real talk with Keith Smith. And folks, the best appraiser of the game, Woody Fincham of Fincham & Associates. Well, instead of Mr., it's capital V. Capital V? V. Oh, V.
Starting point is 00:02:01 It's spelled V, Woody Fincham. It's like the Ohio State University. The Ohio State. The. Oh, V. It's spelled V. Okay. Woody Finch. It's like the Ohio State University. The Ohio State. V. Woody Finch. Woody, I miss sitting next to you, brother. Yeah, man. It's been a while. It has been.
Starting point is 00:02:11 I love coming in and talking with you. Is that what we're going to do? We're going to talk, huh? Either that or open some bourbon or something. I don't know. Ooh. Now my perked up. There we go.
Starting point is 00:02:21 I'm not so sure about the Yellowstone thing, but that surely perked me up. Are you a Yellowstone fan, Woody? I like Sheridan's stuff. A little complicated answer to give you, but we just got finished watching Landman. I really like Billy Bob Thornton and that show, but I'm starting to believe that he can't write women very well. Taylor Sheridan can't. I mean, women should be more than a plot device.
Starting point is 00:02:43 What about Beth Dutton in Yellowstone? Two over the top. Now, the way he wrote the main female lead in 1883 was excellent, but she's sort of the matriarch of the family and how the family evolves. It just gets a little bit... My mother, when I was growing up, liked to watch Dallas and Dynasty and stuff like that, and Beth Dutton's more in that line of stuff, I think. But people like it, so I'm being a snob about it.
Starting point is 00:03:08 I appreciate it. I appreciate it. The man has got tough standards. Yeah. What do you think? I just realized I spent too much time looking at data and stuff. Maybe you ought to watch. I've literally never watched a single episode of any of that.
Starting point is 00:03:23 1883 is worth a set. I just watched it for a second go-around. Start to finish for a second go-around. I'm starting 1923 for a second go-around now. That's a good show, too. The second season of 1923 starts in February. Yep. And then he's got two spinoffs of Yellowstone in production as we speak.
Starting point is 00:03:41 One starring Michelle Pfeiffer. I heard Matthew McConaughey might be attached. Matthew McConaughey is going to be the replacement to the bitter and difficult to work with Kevin Costner. McConaughey is a great actor. I keep getting older and they stay the same age.
Starting point is 00:03:59 Alright, alright. There we go. Woody Vincham, nicely done. I love this guy. Keith Smith, where would you like to begin? No, I'm just enamored by this. But it is a real estate show after all. But I guess you could, you know, land, what is it? Landman. Landman is a real estate.
Starting point is 00:04:18 Yellowstone itself, I mean, the last season dealt with conservation easements, dealing with gentrification, dealing with developers from outside of a state coming in, trying to take over a massive unpaid real estate tax bill, and how they side-scorted that. It's interesting. You should watch it. I won't run it for you. Really? Okay. I'll go ahead and watch it. Which one am I talking about?
Starting point is 00:04:37 Yellowstone. It's a phenomenal show. It's today's version of The Sopranos. And I'm not comparing it to Mafioso, but I'm talking about the institutional piece of television content The generational type of show It's Yellowstone for now It's what Sopranos was for the previous generation And since my oldest daughter is in the biz
Starting point is 00:04:55 You'd think I would watch more of the stuff that she's kind of involved with She's involved with Yellowstone? No, no, no But she's worked with some of the actors in there And all that kind of great stuff. Cope, watching the program. He says it's a great show. Hey, John.
Starting point is 00:05:10 He's watching the program right now. All right, viewers and listeners, Keith Smith, the show is yours. You ready, Judah? Live on Woody's Facebook page. Fantastic, Judah. Back to the question that I've been asked several times just to kick the show off is, you know, what does the active homes on market look like? So I was able to go back from 2007.
Starting point is 00:05:30 This is at Lake Monticello. From 2017 out to December of 24. So, Judah, that's slide number one. And Neil Williamson, who is Charlottesville's Dutton family? Who? That's a great question. President of the Free Enterprise Forum. I did a post on that.. President of the Free Enterprise Forum. I did a post on that.
Starting point is 00:05:47 Please support the Free Enterprise Forum and Neil Williams. He does some great work. I'll second that. I just met with Neil this past week talking about some things that we want to do for the appraisal community here in Virginia and Neil is very receptive.
Starting point is 00:06:03 He's the guy in the room all the time, right? And local politics, we're about ready to do 50% of, almost 50% of all our local seats coming up. And, you know, for those of us who can't go to these meetings, he does it on our behalf. So he needs capital, needs dollars to do that, so please donate. Is it the Woodards, Neil Williamson, Charlottesville's Dutton family? Keith Woodard's family?
Starting point is 00:06:28 I would imagine after, when I was deputy assessor in Albemarle, we dealt with them quite a bit, so that's probably correct. I'm going to break out an old name. I would think that Doc Hurt. I was going to mention Dr. Hurt. Dr. Hurt would be,
Starting point is 00:06:41 I mean, to the old school, I think some of the modern stuff, I mean, he still owns a ton of dirt around here, but I would say that would be the 1883 version of it. The Yellowstone, the modern one, I'm not really sure who that would be. You don't really have a lot of huge families. Maybe a Frank Bailiff and Charlie Armstrong, the Dutton family. Well, Frank's an actual cattle rancher.
Starting point is 00:07:08 Oh, I know he is. I know he is. He loves Bojangles. I mean, he's got cows, so you've got to leave it with Frank. Lake Monticello data. Yeah, so slide number one, just, you know, everybody was, thank you, everybody was seeing what was going on. So this is month over month from January 17 to December. So in December we had
Starting point is 00:07:27 72, this is a month snapshot. I want to caveat this this is a difficult thing to track because stuff comes on and off but these are big holistic numbers. 72 units came on. When we were at November of 22 we were at 89. But December of, this is why people feel like there's more houses coming on. In December of 23, we're at 48. So we're not quite double, but we're awfully close to double.
Starting point is 00:07:56 So that's why everybody's kind of feeling homes coming on the market. The average from 2017 out is 101 units per month, and that takes in from 17 when we were at 193. So we're way below the average. So it may feel like a lot of homes are coming on the market because we're 50% roughly above where we were this time last year. You agree or disagree with that?
Starting point is 00:08:21 Yeah, I mean, your data's spot on. What I would be careful of, because I analyze data all the time, going back as far as you went back really shows a huge skew. A hundred percent. I would, I mean, looking at it, I'd probably go no more than about three years back so we could just be post-COVID looking forward. But, I mean, we're still low inventory no matter how you cut it.
Starting point is 00:08:41 It's just the orders of magnitude look so big when you got it all the way back to 17. The reason I went that far back was try to establish an average, but you're 100% right, right? Because in 17, and we'll take a look at some other numbers here, we were still recovering from the time of great unpleasantness at that particular time. That's about the time we were – some subdivisions were starting to actually – they were just coming out above where we were at that point. So that's when strong recovery was really starting to show, post-Dodd-Frank. And what was interesting is when you take a look at somewhere, you know, that 2020 mark, which was the beginning, you know, at the entry level of COVID, right?
Starting point is 00:09:18 It just drops. Yeah. The inventory just dropped from 101 down to in the 40s. But I just thought that this was a good representation of how the actives have been tracking for a longer period of time. But if you take a look, that's the reason I picked November 22. We were at 89 units. So we just kind of drove all the way down until around April of 24,
Starting point is 00:09:49 and we're starting to come back up somewhere around April of 24. So I think I want to get more of a feeling why people are saying, well, oh my God, there's so many more houses on the market. But even at the average, what is that, 2% of the total amount of units at homes at lake monticello is 4 300 so one percent 43 43 thank you so we're somewhere around you know as an average of two
Starting point is 00:10:13 percent and we're way way below that so just wanted to kick it off with that and see what everybody thought about it viewers and listeners let us know your thoughts there's certainly homes to purchase in lake monticello but in the grand scheme of things, 43 and change, 50 homes, and the grand scheme of 4,300 available is not very many. It's not very many. And depending on the area of central Virginia, homes continue to trade in days, depending on where you're at. I follow certain pockets very closely, and I'm seeing days on market for these pockets that I'm following, one, two, three, four, five, and multiple contracts and bidding wars are still existing in this real estate market.
Starting point is 00:10:57 So we talk about this all the time, but, Woody, from your perspective, right, we talked about this last Friday that the market tempo, at least from January 1 to now, seems to be picking up. Lori Woodruff straight up put on her Instagram account, January is the spring market. And that's something that you've been talking about on the show for a long time, her exact words. And I think that's been going on for a couple of years. But, I mean, you're kind of at the leading edge, right, because you're starting to see appraisals. So is your appraisals upticking in the last few weeks or are you just always constantly busy? Oh, you're asking in our overall work volume. We stay pretty consistent. You know, of course, during the COVID months and a couple of years, we were super swamped, but
Starting point is 00:11:43 we have a diversification in our practice. It's not just mortgage work. So, you know, we do a lot of legal and tax donation work and stuff like that. But we've seen no downtick in our mortgage volume whatsoever. So back on the days on market for Lake Monticello. Absolutely. Slide number four, if you don't mind, Judah. So these are median. And I'm able, thanks to Ian, go back to 2004 and get good data on that. So but, you know, we're looking at the end of 2024 was our medium days on market was eight. The end of 21 was five. You know, 2018, to your point, which was pre-COVID, right? We were at 55 days on market.
Starting point is 00:12:26 So it was just a complete plummet. Our peak was around 2011-ish, which was the height of the time of great unpleasantness at 104 days. But I just thought that that was an interesting graph to take a look at on how pretty much since 2011 to now we've just dropped from up to Jerry's point to 104 to 8 that doesn't mean some days homes aren't on the market longer it's all about am I in the right location right features right condition and right price go ahead the if you're looking at your chart I also
Starting point is 00:13:01 ran some charts that we're not going to put on screen, but I ran both data for the overall neighborhood of Lake Monticello, and then I just focused on three-bedroom ranches with no basements, just to kind of get a base. Both of those groups are showing, you know, an increase in days on market right now, but it's very minimal. This is, as an appraiser, where I start paying attention to this over the next month or two to see what's going to happen. Because if the market is weakening, this is where it's going to start indicating it. But we're still, I mean, still strong. There's nothing that makes me think we're heading into a negative market at all. So in your world, in your mind, what would constitute us needle moving into a negative market?
Starting point is 00:13:44 Well, you'd have to have way more supply on the market. Days on market would have to be much longer than they are. What's the tipping point for DOM? Well, it just depends on what the absorption is. The absorption rate is the most important metric that we look at. So how much is being absorbed in a month and how much is coming on? If you've got a net negative where you're absorbing more than is coming on, then you're always going to be in a seller's market.
Starting point is 00:14:07 But once it gets to where there's stuff just setting and they're having to adjust pricing down, that's when you're getting into a market that might be stable or less than stable. So maybe this might help that a little bit. So every Friday I look at the numbers and we talk about car footprint, right? This is Charlottesville, Almar, Favana, Nelson, Green, and Louisa in my market monitor. What's coming on? What's going off? What is new homes are coming on? What's going pending? And pretty much up until this week, it was balanced, right? We started the first week off around 30, 30, 30 came on, 30 came off.
Starting point is 00:14:41 Last week was around 60 came on. We're sitting right now 51 just came on from monday to today but 65 went off yeah so to me that's an absorption rate kind of going in the wrong direction or am i looking at that wrong how many came on how many went off 51 came on 65 went off so i've got more units coming off than coming on. Coming off, is that including? Pending. Okay, so they went pending. So these are active homes. We had 51 active homes came on, right?
Starting point is 00:15:13 And then 51 went pending, right? So they're under contract. They haven't closed, right? They're in the contract process. But I look at absorption from that perspective. You know, what's coming on and what's going off? Is that flawed? Is that the way I should be thinking? No, there's nothing wrong with the way you're looking at it. But, you know, when you're right in the middle of it, it's hard to say exactly what the market's doing.
Starting point is 00:15:34 Oh, 100%. 2020 is always in the rear view. But, I mean, what's tracking with this, too, is, you know, I ran some numbers, too, on both of those groups I just mentioned. You know, the ranchers are showing a half a percent increase per month in price, which means about 6% per year overall at Lake Monticello. And the neighborhood as a whole, that's everything at the lake, is showing about 0.6% per month, which gives you about 7.2% per year. So we're still appreciating in value. Let's talk about that for a second.
Starting point is 00:16:02 So ranchers, single level, primary on the main level. Yeah, no basement, just regular old rancher. And they're moving at a faster tempo than two stories. Well, they're appreciating at half a percent per month is what I'm saying. So what that means is the price is going up a half a percent a month. Did you take a look at that versus two stories or just one? No, I just did that as a baseline. Next time I come on, I can run it any way you want to.
Starting point is 00:16:29 Just let me know. But he compared it and contrasted to the neighborhood as a whole. Yeah. The neighborhood as a whole is actually increasing faster. Which would give you what you're looking for in some ways. Yeah. Yeah, because everything else would be two stories. Well, you would have to pull out the waterfront properties here.
Starting point is 00:16:44 That could skew his data. Well, the acres are going to be a little waterfront properties here. That could skew his data. Well, the acres are going to be a little different. Waterfront's going to be a little different. Not as far as property goes. But finish this point that he's making right there. This is a good point. You asked him to compare and contrast it to two-story, and the
Starting point is 00:16:59 two-story, the additional inventory that's not ranchers appreciating at a faster clip. 7.2% over the year. Yeah, and that's going to be skewed by those upper level of upper market level stuff, like the waterfront properties, those properties work in a different fashion than anything else at the lake. Uh, and the acres are a different thing as well, but there's not as many transactions in the acres as there would be everywhere else. Yeah. If you have one a year, it's a lot. And the other is new construction, too. Liberty and a few others are building a ton of homes in Lake Monticello,
Starting point is 00:17:30 and they are going to be a completely different niche of competition as well. So we would want to cut all those things or call them all into separate categories and look at them, which is easy enough to do if you want me to do it. It's easy enough to do, but I wanted to kind of just at a high level talk a little bit about there's this spike, for lack of a better word, from December or the end of the year of 23 versus 24. So we have more homes on the market, but they are traditionally, or from the average,
Starting point is 00:18:09 a lot less than what we normally were going to see. So I think folks were just like, oh, my God, we have, you know, how many homes on the market at the moment? I didn't get a chance to look at it. I can look for you. Yeah, look at that, but that is below the norm, and I think everybody's gotten used to, you know,
Starting point is 00:18:26 the single-digit homes on the market on the week versus the low double digits. Right. Let me ask you it a different way. From an appraiser's perspective, is Lake Monticello still a good value? A good value? I mean, that's individual perspective,, that's individual perspective. I mean, if you're looking to be in a good community, that's values increasing. Yeah. I mean, definitely. If you want, if it's your first time buying a home, it's going to be a hard market to
Starting point is 00:18:56 buy in because it's expensive. It is. Yeah. Cause we have a, I have a slide over there. We can say where we ended at the end of the year, which is number three, Judah. Slide three, J-Dubs. We ended 2024 at 346 as a median sales price. And just to put it in perspective, that jumped from 2013 at 167. So, you know, we had a constant run-up from 13 up. We had a drop. At 2007, we were somewhat closer at 248, but then we had the time of great unpleasantness, and you can pretty much tell by looking at this chart when that started changing, right?
Starting point is 00:19:36 And that change happened in 13, and then just every year after that, it just completely climbed. So you're at a median sales price of $346. Comments coming in quickly here. Let's go to Cope. First, Cope wants to host a show on our network, co-starring Woody, which is a reality program on the appraisal world, the ins and outs of it. He wants to do it remote. I'm always inclined to new ideas, Cope. Is he watching in New York? Yeah, that's where he would be, up in New York. He's watching right now. He's an appraiser.
Starting point is 00:20:10 A reality show. Yeah, he says, I want to do an hour inside look on the life of an appraiser. And he also says the mortgage business sucks in most areas. Appraisal waivers, high interest rates, very few sellers looking to leave their 3% rate. Buyers have gotten their arms around higher rates, but the sellers just have not come around. It's a psychological conundrum from the New York appraiser. John, is it Copulous?
Starting point is 00:20:37 Copulous. Copulous. Cope, I love when you watch the program. Are we seeing a lot of appraisal waivers in our market? They're definitely increasing. Fannie and Freddie have definitely, which is, this is the strangest thing in the world to me. They're trying to get out of conservatorship. They're in conservatorship because they made really bad decisions before Dodd-Frank happened.
Starting point is 00:20:55 And now they're asking that let's ignore our collateral and just do all this on credit base. And so they're trying to, they see us as more of a hurdle than they do anything else. And the thing with the appraisal business is we're the only person in the transaction that isn't trying to make something close. Truly independent. Yeah, there's no commission on the line for us, and we're trying to do what's best for our client and give good information. And they just see us as a speed bump.
Starting point is 00:21:27 Rich Blackman III, John Lane, Bob James Jr., David Massey, hello. A lot of folks asking about, I don't know if this is the right phrase, but maybe they're intending to use it this way, the canary in the coal mine with the HOA concerns at the lake. Speaking of the lake, I'm seeing this all over the feed. The allusion to canary and the coal mine is an allusion to trouble ahead for the neighborhood,
Starting point is 00:21:50 I think, is what they're doing. We don't have to talk about that now. We can. We can continue with the thoughts and comments. I knew that was going to come up, and I'm ready to talk about it. I'm pretty sure what he is is one of us that has... Can I
Starting point is 00:22:04 say both you guys live at the lake? Yeah, sure. These guys are Lake Monticello Reserves. Are you guys, is the nickname Lakers? Is that what they call folks that live at the lake? That's beyond me. That's the younger millennials
Starting point is 00:22:24 are referencing themselves. As Lakers, yeah. Look at that. Yeah, Kobe Bryant and Magic Johnson. We're among good company there. I was about to say, I'll take it. As Lakers. I'll take it.
Starting point is 00:22:32 Back to the appraisal thing, just before we get into that, right? I'm sorry to hear that that's what's going on, because as one who's lived through the time of great unpleasantness and the run-up to that, it's when lenders starting, when appraisers were not as independent, let's say, or influential on the transaction. We all know what was happening prior to the run-up. So the good news is that you guys are the independent
Starting point is 00:23:06 arbiters on value, right? If that's starting to change, that's making me a little nervous. Did I hear that right? Yeah. The technology that's in place, and, you know, I know several of the upper chief appraiser staff at Freddie, so I talk to them often enough. And, you know, they have a lot of good technology in place. So they're, they're more comfortable with, you know, their internal
Starting point is 00:23:31 data, but again, they're in a business of closing loans. They, you know, their retail division is all about making money. Right. So, you know, when you allow retail to wag the dog, so to speak, then, you know, you're going to be a little bit more liberal with how you make your decisions. I've always explained this. This was a cookie jar that somebody left open, and they were taking cookies out with no oversight. And they shut that down, and now we have oversight. A better analogy is you've got a dump truck up here called the United States government, and any time they get into trouble, they just open up the dump truck and dump the cookies back in the cookie jar.
Starting point is 00:24:06 That's the problem. And then they let anybody take a cookie out. Yeah. Ray Caddow watching the program. Ray Caddow says, I put a deal together in Fisherville, in Fishersville just this week, mid-400,000. The difference in what you get for that kind of money across the mountain and this side of the mountain is absolutely astonishing.
Starting point is 00:24:24 It really is. I think it might even be growing, the delta, between that side of the mountain and this side of the mountain is absolutely astonishing. It really is. I think it might even be growing the delta between that side of the mountain and this side of the mountain. We haven't looked at that in a while. We have to do a show about that, but take a look at the difference between the other side of the hill and this side of the hill. But Jerry, if you want to go and tackle our little PPP loan issue at Lake Monticello. I've been there since 87. Put some insight on it. How long have you been living at the lake? We moved in in 17.
Starting point is 00:24:50 17. Dustin Harris and Brent A. Johnson, welcome to the program. Dustin's the appraiser coach. Yeah. Lori Fincham, the fabulous associate, one of the owners of Fincham & Associ Associates watching the program and she says they should have always been independent when referencing where the role is of the appraiser in the closing process. She is a very smart lady and she would know what's up. She tells me what to do.
Starting point is 00:25:19 I think what happened in the time before, and you jump in, run up to the time of great unpleasantness, and the big difference was that the lenders would get to pick and choose their appraisers. That doesn't happen now, right? Well, I mean, let's cut to the chase. What was happening was lenders had appraisers in their pocket that made sure that the deal materialized and that the home appraised. Can I share a story from back then? I would love to. I'll make it quick. So we had a client that we were working with at that time, and my firm was in Virginia Beach at this time.
Starting point is 00:25:50 And we had started going over to graphical analysis. This is when appraisers were really just starting to get into Excel and doing analysis in a quantitative fashion rather than just kind of going, you know, licking their thumb and seeing which way the wind's blowing. And as the market started to transition in Virginia Beach, we figured out where the peak of the market was, and then our graph started showing that we were starting to head into a decline. And we sent over our first appraisal to this client, and by client I mean lender. The head underwriter there sent an email around to the entire office and said, at this time my company was called FM and Associates. FM and Associates is the only appraisal firm in Tidewater indicating that the market is declining. And based on the Case-Shiller Index at this time, Case-Shiller was what everybody tracked, and they used Raleigh and Richmond as points on their graph.
Starting point is 00:26:49 They were not showing any change. They were still appreciating. And so based on large MSAs outside of the Hampton Roads area, they were saying that we were giving them bad information. And essentially without saying, don't send your work through that company. They were stigmatizing you. Yeah. Did that actually happen? Did people stop sending work to you?
Starting point is 00:27:08 That underwriter was let go a month later because I couldn't find the CEO. I bet I can finish this story. Woody's prediction of the market starting to decline materialized and proved to be correct. It was absolutely correct. Yeah. So, in saying that,
Starting point is 00:27:24 does Woody's crystal ball see where does Woody's crystal ball see the market going our current market right now I know we don't have inventory and what I'm trying to ask is is appreciation going to continue
Starting point is 00:27:39 I know micro markets matter but we still get asked this on the show repetitively. Are we going to have a repeated time of great unpleasantness? And from your perspective, I just would love to hear your thoughts on that. I'll give you two. I'm going to give you one without the wild card and one with the wild card. I think based on current data and immediate retrospective data, we're going to continue to appreciate.
Starting point is 00:28:03 The market's going to remain positive as far as value goes, very competitive. It's probably only going to get more competitive. I do think interest rates are probably going to tick up some. I don't know that it's going to cut off volume too much because, again, life happens. If you throw the wild cards in, and I'm not talking politics, but with the recent administration change, there's a lot of wild cards out there. I mean, we're talking about furloughing or laying off a bunch of federal employees. Ladies and gentlemen, we live in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Starting point is 00:28:32 We are a DOD-based economy. So, I mean, we have the university here in Charlottesville, but we also have a lot of folks here that work for the federal government as well. NJIC's a big employer here. So we have to keep in mind that that may cause some problems. Well, it's the number one source of... $1.3 billion per year economic. Top economic driver in our market is government sector at $1.3 billion per year, and that number's low.
Starting point is 00:28:58 This was from a couple years ago. So, I mean, with those types of things and, you know, international conflict, what's going to happen there? There's a lot of things that can influence the market. But, you know, based on what we have right now for immediate retrospective data, I think we're going to continue marching pretty much in the direction we are, which is increasing prices and high competition. So I get asked this question all the time. We'll get to the Lake Monticello. No problem.
Starting point is 00:29:23 Comments are coming in quickly. Lake Monticello. No problem. Comments are coming in quickly. Lake Monticello thing. But I guess from your perspective, and you look at this data better than anybody, what is it going to take to get inventory to uptick? I know it's a big question. I mean, it's pretty straightforward, I think. Yeah, I mean, it's just a matter of whether or not sellers want to sell. I mean, I'm in that category of sellers right now where I've got a less than 3% mortgage.
Starting point is 00:29:45 I'm not going to sell. I don't need to. I don't have to. I mean, everything we need is right where we are, and that is like Monticello, and we'll talk about the PPP thing in a bit. Even with that going on, we're very happy where we are. But I just don't, unless we see more inventory come on,
Starting point is 00:30:00 I mean, with the new administration talking about cutting some red tape for new construction, that might help. I don't think so. I want to get that out, right? Because I was at a home inspection yesterday and they were talking about, oh my God, this is going to be great. Red tape is going to get cut back. Federal government does not impact things like zoning,
Starting point is 00:30:28 things like red tape. They have some impact that they can do on it, and this is why, you know, local elections matter. If anything, the federal government could create more red tape, and these tariffs that are coming into play could be additional red tape for new construction and remodeling sectors. Oh, yeah. I mean, we import a lot of goods from outside the country for building,
Starting point is 00:30:47 and that really can cause a problem. And labor. Yeah. That's what I think is going to be the red tape. The cost of construction is going to escalate even more. Throw in the fact that interest rates and the cost of getting money to build is going to be even more challenging. And throw in the fact that banks are hesitant to lend right now.
Starting point is 00:31:07 Developments? 100%. Unless you're operating in cash in that world, it's almost impossible. Yeah, you're in quicksand. We're back to trying to borrow money for development or commercial projects or multifamily, as it was right after the time of 2007, 2008. It's like, hey, I want to do a development. They say goodbye, see you later. So most of the folks that are in that space are operating solely with cash.
Starting point is 00:31:31 So these are the big guys, right? You don't see a lot of small folks going in there. Look, I think from my perspective, and I did a couple of two national interviews on this this week. Unless we figure out a way to change zoning ordinances and local zoning ordinances or state zoning ordinances, allowing more construction. Forget about the cost of going up with tariffs. Zoning ordinance changes are not having any impact in Charlottesville. And the reason they're not.
Starting point is 00:32:02 And the reason they're not. It's because of the affordable housing requirements associated with said zoning changes. And just the silly things about the site plan process, right? Just to get on the city for real quick, on a high horse on that one, right? The state says that if it's 10,000 square feet of disturbance or below is when you officially need to do a site erosion control plan. City's got it set at six.
Starting point is 00:32:31 Right. You can't do anything under 6,000 square feet on what they're trying to do. So what's requiring now is that there has to be a full site plan done. They require a major subdivision is three and over. They have, the city has the ability to change this. There's some very good folks, you know, David is
Starting point is 00:32:51 Roger Boisonnais is in one of them. I just spoke to him two days ago. You know, they are a year into it, and they're pivoting. They're pivoting to something that they don't have to ask. I had a similar conversation. Roger boys and a woolen mills. He had a property on
Starting point is 00:33:07 site. He was going to add three additional single family detached homes and preserve the the older woolen home, woolen mills home that was on site. And ladies and gentlemen, despite having market advantages like partnering
Starting point is 00:33:23 with an esteemed architect, my friend Richard, and offering one of those homes to a builder below value, they still cannot bring the project to market. They can't get past the red tape. They can't get past the bureaucracy. And these guys are insiders. These guys do this professionally for a living. I mean, they have probably, not to date these guys, but I would not be surprised if it's 125 years of collective experience. I know Roger's been in the market since the 70s.
Starting point is 00:33:51 And how about this quote, ladies and gentlemen? This was posted and this was released this week on the record. David Mitchell is the construction and development manager for Great Eastern Management Company. His company owns the Pantop Shopping Center, the Seminole Square Shopping Center. And he says, on the record, on the record, media, quote, the recently passed affordable housing regulations in Charlottesville for new residential structures will make residential extremely difficult, if not financially impossible.
Starting point is 00:34:22 Yeah, we were saying that on this show, what, two years ago? We said this years impossible. Yeah, we were saying that on this show, what, two years ago? We said this years ago when the activists in this community were pressuring city council to pass this ordinance. We said, you are listening to people that do not know real estate. That's what we said. Yeah, 100%. I mean, the zoning ordinance, personally, I think is a good thing, but it's only half of the equation.
Starting point is 00:34:54 If you don't fix it, and I've been preaching this forever, if you don't fix the site plan side of it, right, the regulatory side of it, which is not a political thing. It is a, you know, set up by the folks at the planning department in the city. So this is a staff-generated process that, the, the politicians can get involved in it. You know, when people were like, Oh my God, we're going to have 50,000 houses. We all said on the show, that's just never going to, and it's playing out. It's just never going to happen. What it is doing is making properties go up, right? It's jumped 15%. We just talked about that in our pre-production meeting and the, the assessments that are upticking in the city of Charlottesville are most notably upticking in financially margin, historically African-American communities. Star Hill, Tenth and Page are in the crossfire of gentrification. And uptick
Starting point is 00:35:37 assessments to the tune of double digit plus year over year is just going to only fuel the fire of gentrification in those neighborhoods. And this has been going on year after year after year, that these particular communities tend to get hit the hardest. Well, you know, if you're a developer and investor, you're looking for to buy low to sell high. I mean, that's the name of the game. It's capitalism. And so, you know, you get into these older neighborhoods that, you know, they're more affordable to buy into, or they were, and then you add steroids to it by saying – putting in these policies that say, okay, you can put more development here, more density. So what does that mean? need to do it, they can now create additional rental units on the premises. And are they going
Starting point is 00:36:25 to just magically say, altruistically go, hey, I'm going to rent these for below market rent so people who are in the workforce can rent them. No, they go, I'm a capitalist. I'm going to rent these for as high as I can, as much as I can. You get around the hospital, midterm rentals are a big thing because of travel nurses, right? They pay good money to rent in those places. And if you own property and you're just going to give it away, unless you're independently wealthy and don't need the money, your motivation is going to be to make as much money as you can. So what you've done is you've thrown fuel on the fire, not doused it. Bingo. The activists in this community had made the most affordable dirt in the community
Starting point is 00:37:01 the most opportunistic in the community. And when the most affordable dirt in the community, the most opportunistic in the community. And when the most affordable dirt in the community becomes the most opportunistic dirt in the community, that's going to be the dirt that's going to be jumped on by business people. And that's exactly what's happening. But I'm going to add a little bit of a caveat to that. And when we do this show a year from now, I'm going to be super curious.
Starting point is 00:37:22 If they do not change, they meaning the city, does not change the approval process, right? So somebody like Roger isn't waiting a year in the approval process and has to pivot to something to do a workaround, which is what they're doing. So they have to stop asking for it. It won't be the same density. It won't be taking care of the housing affordability. They're business folks. They need to do what they need to do with their investment. I think a lot of these people that are buying property right now,
Starting point is 00:37:53 when they figure out that they can't do what they want to do with it, it may end up coming back at a bit of a – you're not going to see this 15% increase. I may be wrong. I think you're wrong on that. Yeah, yeah. We'll find out from a year from now. I think you're wrong on that. You're basically saying the people that are buying the opportunistic dirt, that when they realize that the red tape is so significant, they can't do what they thought that they could do on the opportunistic dirt, that they're going
Starting point is 00:38:15 to put the opportunistic dirt back on the market at a haircut. I don't think that's the case. And to support that, the folks that do that- The people that are buying the dirt are just deep pocketing individuals. They're not going to take a haircut on what they buy. 100%. That's what I was about to say. They're buying for 1031 exchanges. They're going to sit on them.
Starting point is 00:38:33 If the back end of the zoning gets easier, then all of a sudden now they've got a project. The city is always going to increase, but is it going to increase at the 15% or a double-digit thing? I don't know how Woody feels about that. Neil Williamson says it extremely well. We were told the new zoning ordinance is a living, breathing document. If this is true, then the new zoning ordinance needs CPR. Brian Pinkston said the NZO was a living, breathing document. I saw Brian Pinkston this past Friday at Selvage Brewery.
Starting point is 00:39:02 I had a great conversation with him. And he's right. Are you going to change it or not? It's been a year and nothing has happened. And at the time, the mayor, Lloyd, I believe is watching the program right now, said that very thing, sat in one of these chairs that, you know, we're going to, I think to use his term was tweak it. It is time now to tweak it. Well, they can't. Well, there's an active lawsuit against it the city's doing absolutely nothing because
Starting point is 00:39:25 there's an active lawsuit against the nzo and the folks are using what happened in arlington as a precedent to kill the nzo and now they're asking the judge that's making a decision on the nzo to recuse himself from offering his take on what's going to happen. And get this, the judge who's giving his opinion on the NCO and whether it can move forward or not, the judge's wife, and first the judge lives in the city of Charlottesville. So his house, where he lives in the city of Charlottesville, is upticking in value if he votes yes toward NCO. Seems like a conflict of interest to me.
Starting point is 00:40:00 Second, his wife was one of the activists who pushed in her free time and her charitable time for the NCO for more density prior to this even becoming a talking point in the news cycle or on talk shows like this. So I'll jump in on that. That's two conflicts of interest. Not agreeing or disagreeing with that. At the moment, it's still the law, right? But no one's doing anything with that. At the moment, excuse us, at the moment, it's still the law, right? But no one's doing anything with it. Because nobody's going to invest in that. Of course not. I will tell you
Starting point is 00:40:32 if on the next city council meeting, they reduce all their development requirements, site plan requirements on the second hand, watch projects start coming out of the ground. But until that second half happens, which again, they're getting sued on the left hand, I'm not out of the ground but until that second half happens which again they're getting sued on the left hand i'm not going to go ahead and work on
Starting point is 00:40:49 the zoning at the site plan end of it which is really where they need to work do the work you're 100 right who's going to come in now back to my comment about you know will prices start buying up i think as long as this lawsuit is hanging over everybody's head, would you invest the money to go ahead and do a, do a, potentially try to do a project? And keep in mind, you know, you got to buy it for cash. You got to come up with cash to go through the process. It is extremely expensive. It's hundreds of thousands of dollars on a typical project just to do the engineering end of it and the approval end of it on that. So I think you might see things kind of time out a little bit. And one of the most lunacy aspects of all this is the city doesn't even have an attorney on staff to fight the lawsuit.
Starting point is 00:41:37 They're outsourcing this lawsuit work to a third party that's charging them the Mercedes Benz of attorney fees every hour. Neil, they should have, having worked for local government, this is such a high-profile thing that they really should go to outside counsel anyway, because who on the governmental payroll is going to have the expertise and competency to carry a lawsuit like this? I agree with you on that. I'll slightly push back on that. If that is the case, then we as taxpayers should know
Starting point is 00:42:06 how much the city is paying in legal fees to fight this lawsuit, and they are not being transparent with that monetary amount. Are they not required to do that? Right now we have no transparency. Interesting. So Neil will chime in on this. I have never seen a lawsuit against a local jurisdiction that was not handled by Altshor.
Starting point is 00:42:27 Oh, that's not the case at all. There's been numerous examples in Charlottesville where that is not the case. Really? Yeah. Okay. Fulvana County was the one that comes to mind that did not. Fred Payne handled a couple of lawsuits. When the fired police chief, when the—
Starting point is 00:42:41 I'm talking about zoning in particular. Well, there's been numerous well, you said lawsuits. Numerous lawsuits where that was not the case. Got it. But, okay, comments are coming in here. First, Neil says the NCO lawsuit is freezing housing creation. Absolutely. 100% Neil.
Starting point is 00:42:56 Without question. Who's going to get into this pool with everything that's going on? We do have counselors watching the program, by the way, and we do have staff at City Hall watching us here. Vanessa Parkle, is it possible, legal, to create a zoning policy that requires homes in a given area to be owner-occupied? During transition, existing owners would have to be allowed to continue renting an investment property, but at the time of sale, that purchaser would not be permitted to rent out the property. I don't think, you know, just respectfully, I love Vanessa Parkhill dearly, love her dearly. I don't think you want that to be the case.
Starting point is 00:43:26 Go ahead. You first. I was going to say, you know, I was very critical a while ago about, you know, what they did with zoning and kind of leaving it wide open. You know, capitalists are going to be capitalists. And I'm not a big fan or proponent of additional regulation, but unless you put something in there to require or incentivize the owners to not go as high as they can on the pricing, which are things like rent control and things like that, I'm not a big fan of that. And we've seen very negative things happen in other places with it. But I mean, with rent out of the control the way it is, if you're just going to
Starting point is 00:44:02 open up zoning and say, okay, build to your heart's content, and as far as density goes, folks are just going to make as much money off it as they can. It's not going to make pricing go down or keep it stable. That's an environment rich for appreciation. So unless you put a control measure in, there's no way to stop that. So to Vanessa's comment, one, we're aand-rule state, so we can't do anything locally that the state doesn't allow us to do. That being said, why this election cycle is so important to us because we have 17 of the 37 seats...
Starting point is 00:44:37 No one's running opposed. ...up at the moment. Nobody is, but that's part of the game. People kind of wait for the last minute to do it, but at the moment, I'm not aware of any opposing. So all of a sudden. One seat, completely up for grabs. Jack Jewett District, Alamaro County,
Starting point is 00:44:52 where Diantha McKeel says she's not going to run for, I believe, is a fourth consecutive term. Props to Diantha McKeel for a fantastic career serving Alamaro County. The Jack Jewett District is wide open. Neil Williamson, as much as I hate to admit it, Jerry is absolutely right. Neil Williamson, I know it's very difficult for you to type that into the comment section here.
Starting point is 00:45:10 I love you, my friend. His fingers hurt. Cope in New York agrees with Mr. Williamson on that comment as well. So much to cover here with about 10 minutes left in the program. Do we want to get to the lake? Sure. Would you set it up? Okay. I will absolutely set
Starting point is 00:45:28 it up. Lake Monticello, one of the largest neighborhoods in the Commonwealth of Virginia, roughly 4,300 homes, applied for a $646,000-plus paycheck protection program loan during COVID when the federal government was basically giving out to free money every Tom, Dick, and Harry. I swear that didn't cause the inflation that we're dealing with right now. But that's a topic for a different day altogether. Here's a bunch of free money for you guys to sit on your couch and do Jack Diddley. And it's kind of not becoming free all of a sudden. Now, well, I'm going to push back on that. Now, Lake Monticello, the largest neighborhood in central Virginia, more than 4,300 homes,
Starting point is 00:46:15 one of the largest neighborhoods in the Commonwealth of Virginia, may be on the hook for $646,843. Both these gentlemen are Lakers. They live inside the gate. The Lake Monticello Homeowners Association applied for the PPP loan in early April 2020 for what they said was to avoid furloughing staff. I'm going to pick that apart like Thanksgiving turkey here in a matter of moments. And then the loan was approved by mid-April. Then the Small Business Administration granted forgiveness on the loan a matter of moments. And then the loan was approved by mid-April.
Starting point is 00:46:49 Then the Small Business Administration granted forgiveness on the loan in May of 2021. Now the Department of Justice, in a letter sent to the Lake Monticello HOA this past December, so roughly 30 days ago, 45 days ago, said, dudes, what are you doing? You got to pay this back in full. And you got to do it before we bring the hammer against you. It's pretty much what's happening. Now the lake is fighting this with their insurance provider covering the legal fees. We'll see how much longer that goes. And how much our insurance goes up. Yeah, and the president of the HOA has sent a statement to owners, you know, we need
Starting point is 00:47:26 to maybe pay this back. The last thing that we're going to do is try to do a special assessment, but it pretty much could happen. And not to do what we're doing right now. Not to talk about it. Reference the show and the statement. Unofficial
Starting point is 00:47:41 social media. Did you see that? Thank you, Larry. That was one of my biggest pushbacks you see that? Thank you, Larry. That was one of my biggest pushbacks on that. I appreciate it, Larry. Yeah, we're a community, and we're not supposed to talk to each other about this. I had 43 Lakers reach out to us about his statement via email. Do you want to start? Well, I've got to try to divorce myself of emotion with it because I'll be honest with you.
Starting point is 00:48:05 You should also caveat it with the caveats that you do sometimes when you have to offer a perspective. This is Woody Fincham. Yeah, I'm also a member of the Board of Directors and the Executive Committee at CAR. So what I'm saying right now is my own personal opinion. As a resident. Yeah, and I'm a resident in the neighborhood, and I'm speaking as a resident. I don't hold any official capacity with the neighborhood one way or the other, other than owning a piece of property. I am angry about it because I think it's pretty plain that this is something we should have never done.
Starting point is 00:48:32 I don't know under whose advice we went with. We have a CPA that gave us this advice. They have E&O insurance for this, and they should be the ones that should be liable for it. If we just did this because it was a board decision, this is going to sound very aggressive, but every member that was on the board that voted that through has a personal fiduciary responsibility to every member of our community. And if they try to do some type of special assessment because of this, I think we ought to hold the board liable for it individually and collectively because they represent us and they made a bad decision here.
Starting point is 00:49:06 Now, if they were given advice from a professional that we're paying money to do and we did what we thought was the best for our neighborhood at the time, I don't think that's the case as far as the board members being individually responsible. But when I sit on a board, and I sit on several in different capacities, I am liable to my members and the people who make up that organization. If I make a bad decision, then I can personally be sued for that. I understand that as a board member. And I think that maybe we were either a little more loose with how we should have been with this or we got some really bad advice. And they're not telling us at this point which that is.
Starting point is 00:49:42 So when this whole PPP thing came up and Jerry and I had the eight foot tape to make sure that we were eight feet or six feet away from each other, away from us. And from where Jerry and I are sitting, by the way, it's eight feet, so everybody... We were talking about, be careful
Starting point is 00:49:59 about, free isn't always free. It's never free. And people were jumping all over this free money. And it looks like, from my perspective, that DOJ and everybody's starting to claw it back. So there is some responsibility. Oh, I mean, Trump and Musk. I mean, I say Musk because he's essentially maybe the president, certainly the vice president, certainly the most powerful man in the world. I mean, he certainly said that he's going to cut back as much of federal spending as possible.
Starting point is 00:50:26 Well, this started, so to be clear, this started before the election happened. But they're at a point right now where they're trying to claw back money. And back to the conversation we had about opening the cookie jar and putting dump trucks of cookies into it, that's what was happening at the time.
Starting point is 00:50:46 And I remember we had business folks going, well, should I take it? Should I take it? My sister was one of them. I said, no, because at some point, if you can survive without it, at some point somebody's going to be knocking on the door and say, I want my money back. Well, that's not necessarily the case. But they're not exclusive. I know other businesses that they are getting not necessarily the case. But they're not exclusive.
Starting point is 00:51:05 I know other businesses that they are getting knocks on the door. But in this particular case, why the Lake Monticello Owners Association is in the crossfire of the DOJ is because the HOA is a 501c4. I get that. A 501c4 specifically could not take the PPP loan. And so why was it given to them? That's not the point. I think that's A 501c4 specifically could not take the PPP loan. And so why was it given to them? That's not the point. I think that's a huge point. Okay, go ahead.
Starting point is 00:51:31 So the lender who provided them the loan should have done their diligence as well. 100%. Of course. 100%. Yeah. The lender's as much responsible here as anyone. But the lender is not going to be held responsible for it. They were the ones that were given the responsibility and the diligence requirement to do what they do.
Starting point is 00:51:47 And then at that point – My company did a PPP loan, and we were – what's the word? We're not required to repay it because we were able to maintain our staff. The bigger question I have about this is – Is the dues were collected. Yeah. Where did this money go? What was it used for?
Starting point is 00:52:05 This is right around the same period of time that we had a pool thing going on at the lake. My family doesn't have a pool membership, but yet we still had to pay for the pool, right?
Starting point is 00:52:12 How about golf course improvements? Yeah. We just had a new practice bunker put in or whatever. Was it a chipping green? Yeah, I believe so. But wasn't there
Starting point is 00:52:21 a special... Special assessment for the pool. There was. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right, but I mean, here we got $600,000-some. Yeah, they would have to demonstrate. What did we do with it? Well, here's the point Woody is making.
Starting point is 00:52:30 In the time where the Lake Monticello Homeowners Association applied for the loan and got $646,000-plus from the federal government, they were still collecting HOA dues from the houses. 100%. And if they were still collecting HOA dues from the houses, that's the cash flow to cover overhead. So they didn't have to furlough staff. So what the hell happened to $646,000 and how was it spent? And... Is that a fair question? That's a fair question.
Starting point is 00:52:54 I don't think the three of us have the answer to that, but that's a darn good fair question, which hopefully comes out of this back to our transparency... Larry! ...transparency thing. Okay, so let us know what the heck... Well, the one thing we did see at the lake is that we don't have enough police
Starting point is 00:53:08 officers. We had to bring in a private security company to fill in some gaps, but yet we've got this PPP loan to bolster up our staff, yet we can't hire anybody. And how this is going to play out, we have crystal balls here, is these gentlemen and
Starting point is 00:53:24 the 4,300 whole motors in Lake Monticello are going to get hit with a special assessment. And that special assessment in the grand scheme of things, 646,000 divided by 4,300 homes, is about $150, $155. So it's not any money, but it's the look. It's the perception that... $150
Starting point is 00:53:39 can mean a lot. $150, come on. I get it. To the three of us at this table, maybe not so much, but there are people out there that are $150. The median age at the lake is rather high because we mean a lot. $150, come on. I get it. To the three of us at this table, maybe not so much, but there are people out there that are $150. The median age at the lake is rather high because we have a lot of retirees. $150 to my parents at 85 that are on a very reduced, it's impactful. $150 per home or the HOA gets sued and becomes insolvent. Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 00:54:03 That's what it basically comes down to. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail, and we'll get through this and figure out what's going on. Or instead of the special assessment, you just uptick dues and allocate the uptick dues to that? Yeah, yeah, yeah. But they can't uptick the dues. That's the problem.
Starting point is 00:54:18 Why can they? They need certain approval of the owners. It requires two-thirds majority. They can do a 3% annum. Yeah. You can do a certain percentage every year without having majority. I understand that. We can go up to 10% in this building. It just got failed. And the reason that I
Starting point is 00:54:32 intimately know Lake Monticello's bylaws and stuff like that, because I've been there since 87 and actually read them multiple times. But it takes two-thirds majority to go ahead and do that. Over a certain percentage. I understand that. The board can do a percentage without the owners. I understand that. And it failed the last
Starting point is 00:54:56 election cycle. And how much were they trying to get? I can't remember the number. I don't remember. It wasn't that. I knew it wasn't going to pass from the word go, so I didn't pay attention. Yeah, and that's to Woody's point. You can't get two-thirds of Lake Monticello to decide tomorrow, Saturday. No, you cannot. Nevertheless, raise their dues. So the only lever they got left, which, oh, by the way, we talk about HOAs on the show often. Be very careful.
Starting point is 00:55:22 Make sure you read all the bylaws. Special assessments, they don't need a vote for that, they don't need anything, that's just a simple board action to go ahead and implement a special assessment. So I've been in Lake Monticello since 1987. I have very specific stories over those years that cost me a ton of money personally and business-wise. So I don't have a huge love about the way they manage it. I love the lake. It's the reason I've been living there for that long, right? That's the reason why I don't think Woody's going to leave. I'm not going to leave any time. I love being there. But, I mean, their history of management has always been a bit goofy. I'll tell one quick story.
Starting point is 00:56:12 When I was building, I was hired to build the new gates there. This was about 20 years ago. And I was looking at the project and looking at the plans and all this stuff, and I said, look, guys, your gate, the island for your gate and the island for the main gate is too close. The first cement truck that's going to come through there is going to hit the gate or hit the building. No, no, no, we know what we're doing.
Starting point is 00:56:37 I said, okay, I gave you three rules. I literally poured the concrete, rubbed the island. The first cement truck came through and ran right through the middle of it. And then I said, guys, we got about an hour before this sets up. Otherwise we're doing this with jackhammers and they couldn't make a decision. I didn't make any friends. I said, you know what? Bleep you. This is going to cost me money as a resident. I ripped it out and they got all pissed at me because I made a decision
Starting point is 00:57:03 without getting board approval on us. Well, it's going to cost you a thousand bucks now or twenty thousand dollars later to break it up. I made a decision on the behalf. So they they, you know, they screwed up when they sold the water and sewer system. I remember going in front of them arguing they wanted to shut the lights down so kids couldn't play basketball in the evening. Who does that kind of stuff? Now they're playing pickleball in the evening. They're playing pickleball. Look at the average age of the pickleball player.
Starting point is 00:57:34 How about the noise with pickleball versus basketball? I live less than a block from the tennis courts in Lafayette. Sounds like a machine gun. Yeah, it's crazy. Well, they didn't want kids playing there. Lori Fincham says, she's a resident. She's an owner.
Starting point is 00:57:49 Lake Monticello Owners Association needs to pay it back, period. They furloughed no one. They furloughed no one. Well, here's a point about Lake Monticello. This is frankly, I mean, I can't say it any better. This is extremely sketchy. 4,300 homes, over 10,000 residents. That is a town, right?
Starting point is 00:58:10 That is a town. Gets run like a local government. This would be extremely unpopular. I've been saying this for decades. I think it should be turned into a town and actually follow certain things, but that will never happen. Yeah, I mean, from the federal level, it's considered what's called a census-designated place. So, I mean, it is its own little town without being a town.
Starting point is 00:58:33 Comments coming in. We're not going to be able to get to all these comments, viewers and listeners. Jason Howard says, as a realtor, Keith, would a possible $660K bill coming due be a red flag for someone looking to buy in this neighborhood? No, 100% no. No, it would be as when we do appraisals, we have to do research into the PUD, the planned unit development information, same as with condos. So if there's any pending litigation or litigation happening, we do have to disclose that. It could become an issue with the lender if they're very risk adverse to it. But generally speaking, it's usually just if it's
Starting point is 00:59:05 in the right price right location within lake monticello right price right features right condition they sell we we yonah and i have and i won't talk about but have a listing out there that i mean we're like getting 10 20 showings a day and it's just since this broke i don't think that's going to happen. If it was thousands and thousands of dollars, that would be one thing. $150, I don't think people will pay attention to it, the buyers,
Starting point is 00:59:33 as much as we are at this point. That's not even a rounding error on the HUD statement. I don't think most people are going to care. A fantastic home at 24 West Lake Forest Drive at $414,900. Asking price. Unbelievable.
Starting point is 00:59:47 Thank you. Unbelievable amount of traffic. My prediction, and I'm willing to put a bottle of booze on this, every owner in Lake Monticello is going to get hit with a special assessment of about $155. Does anyone want to take that bet? No. You want to take that bet? No.
Starting point is 01:00:02 So they see it playing out that way as well. 100%. We're going to get a bill. The biggest bill is going to be the insurance coverage that's going to – your insurance provider is going to drop you. That's going to be the biggest thing. Not your respective home, but I'm talking association and totality. They may not drop you, but they sure as hell are going to pay a lot of money. Even when you're on the right side of a lawsuit and an insurance company gets involved.
Starting point is 01:00:26 100%. They're still going to raise your rates. Jack them up. If you ever used your car insurance, you're going to find out, hold it. Right. My insurance just doubled. That's what's going to happen. The insurance company is not going to foot the legal bill on this and not.
Starting point is 01:00:41 Get their money back. Get their money back. Get their money back. Keith Smith and Woody Fincham, do you want any closing thoughts for the many viewers and this and not get their money back get their money get their money back key smith and uh what do you pinch him do you want any uh closing thoughts for the many viewers and listeners and elected officials watching real talk with key smith yeah one quick caveat i love my neighborhood and i'm already getting nasty messages um i'm not trying to be overly critical of where we live but you know i'm i live there and i'm allowed to be critical 100 i said this on yesterday show we can love something dearly with all our heart and still hold what we love dearly accountable.
Starting point is 01:01:09 It's what my wife does with me every day. Yeah. Oh, multiple times a day, I would imagine. Every day. Okay? And it's because we want the best version of what we love dearly. That's true. It's not because we're throwing shade.
Starting point is 01:01:20 I'll put a little perspective on it. Because we love the community so much, some would say you maybe perhaps should be active in your association because they said that they were going to take the 646,000 PPP loan during these open meetings. Let me tell you something about
Starting point is 01:01:38 that. I am a proponent. I attend and be part of a lot of local... Look, maybe I should be and maybe that's I attend and be part of a lot of local. When, look, maybe I should be and maybe that's on me, so thank you for making me rethink about this. But I used to be, and when you get told to sit down and shut up, so a lot of people don't know, if you're a real estate agent or in the building business, you can't sit on the LMOA board.
Starting point is 01:02:06 And how is that not an equitable issue? So do you know why that's like that? Yeah, because they don't, they feel like you get an unfair advantage as a real estate. No, because the knuckleheads, when they took over from the original developer, wrote in the CNRs, and they did, because they didn't want Faulkner and the developer to be in control of the subdivision. So they made this decision in 69 or whatever year it was. So right now on the books, if I wanted to run.
Starting point is 01:02:31 Yeah, you'd have to retire. You'd have to drop your license. And who do you want to have on that board? Maybe somebody that understands real estate actually would be a good thing to have on that board. Well, it's completely unfair that you have to give up your right as a member of the neighborhood because we have several real estate agents and brokers in our subdivision. I've literally, Jerry, I've literally attended, this is decades ago, LMOA board meetings, and I was, exact words, sit down and shut the F.
Starting point is 01:03:01 They used the F word and shut up. You've got nothing to say. And then I said, okay, I'll build the acres. You've got a lot of Lakers watching. I'll build the acres, and thank you very much, and see you later. How about we'll close with this. No issues with the initial PPP application for me, the person that's commenting. The way it was written and speed to action,
Starting point is 01:03:21 all you had to do was attest to the possibility of revenue being impacted. The bankers were literally sleeping in the office to fast track all the applications due to pressure from all angles should have been caught by an attorney or cpa or their board later when filing in 2020 or 20 2021 tax returns that their entity status disqualified and they should repay them it's all under the all water under the bridge now do a small special assessment with itemized use of the funds to show how it bettered the shared asset and move forward. No special assessment.
Starting point is 01:03:48 Go back to the professionals who gave us the advice to do this and make them pay for it. I actually think that's not going to happen. They have E&O insurance. They screwed up. Well, it all depends on what the insurance company's attorney. In this particular case, punting it to somebody else other than Frank Buck or whoever the Lake Monticello's attorney is these days is a smart move. But I just going to keep your
Starting point is 01:04:13 insurance provider more in play. Whoever wrote that, I kind of get it. It's, you know, let's just be done with it. Be transparent. Get it out of the news cycle. Get it out of the news cycle. And especially with six months ago or five months ago, it was some board member in the news cycle for racist commentary. So what's going to happen is this 150 or whatever this number is, is going to be more because now you engage the insurance company to our conversation. Yeah, it's going to be way more. So now – That's going to be the bigger expense. 100%.
Starting point is 01:04:41 And the grand scheme of things. 100%. Because those rates and premiums are going to stay in perpetuity. 100%. And every year scheme of things. 100%. Because those rates and premiums are going to stay in perpetuity. 100%. And every year. Yeah. So Well, that's what perpetuity Yeah, that too. Did he call me purple?
Starting point is 01:04:54 But anyway, you're way past our time. I called you a fantastic star of the program. And Woody Fincham, one of the best guests possible. Woody Fincham, Fincham Associates. This program is on absolute fire today. So they're not going to be able to rate that we're going to get hit with huge tax insurance increase. This will be the proverbial gift that keeps on giving. 100%.
Starting point is 01:05:12 They're not going to be able to raise dues because nobody's going to want to do it. And then you're going to have to get a special assessment to cover the thing. It's just bad governance is the only way I can put it. There it is. Keith Smith, Yes Royalty Partners. Keith Smith, Yes Royalty Partners. Keith Smith, Yes Royalty Partners. Woody Fincham, Fincham & Associates. Show archived online at realtalkwithkeithsmith.com. The I Love Seville
Starting point is 01:05:31 show up in one hour and five minutes. So long, everybody. Thanks, everybody. Thanks, Woody. That was a lively show. It was a fantastic show. Thank you.

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