The Iced Coffee Hour - Confronting MeetKevin | Revealing His $12 Million WallStreetBets YOLO

Episode Date: May 5, 2021

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Welcome back to the 51st ever episode of the iced coffee hour. I'm Meet Kevin and so far the show has made $56,760. Welcome aboard. Wow, that was so good. You're a pro with this, man. So for those not aware, Meet Kevin has a fantastic YouTube channel where you basically stream 24-7. You post like six videos every single day about the stock market, the real estate market, what's going on with stimulus plan. It's a bit of everything

when it comes to finances. And you've grown a lot over this last year. You've tripled your channel, haven't you? It's been insane. I think I went into 2020 with like 290,000 subs. So whatever that is. It's been nuts. Wow.

Great work, man. You put us all to shame with how many videos you're posting. You basically do in a day what we do in a week throughout four channels in a week. Yeah. Oh, stop. Well, I love your guys' variety.

I'm jealous about your guys' variety. I feel like I'm stuck in this chair. You guys got the show, you got the vlog. I'm jealous, man. The reactions. I love it. Why don't you do a vlog? Hey, Ontario.

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Well, first of all, we're not doing anything. You know, we're still kind of, we feel cloistered at home and it's really boring. Can't wait to get out again. We want stuff to open. I need to get out of here. I'm going to lose my mind. I'm going to start throwing things. But you would be able to set up a vlog now so that, like, let's say in a month, you would be starting to do things. You mean like just set up like a vlog channel or just throw them into the meet, Kevin? Yeah, no, set up a channel, hire somebody to just vlog for you. They do all the filming, they do all the editing so that by the time you actually go and do stuff, you're in the process of buying a house right now, right? That's true. Trying to get one under contract. Yes, and you're trying to have another child, right?

I mean, maybe don't vlog all of that or do. Selective. Right. So if you could vlog really easily and you had someone else take care of everything, would you consider doing it? Yeah, I think that that'd be a consideration if I was doing stuff. Like, you know, I'm hoping by the summer things open up, and I'm totally gamed.

Like, if I could just do my morning market live stream and then do the closing live stream, I got like another six hours of the day. Let's go. Let's go to the beach. know, be at the beach at like 1.30, 145, whatever, do whatever. I think it'd be fun, yeah, sure. I think that would do so well. Like, meet Kevin's family.

Something like that. The mastamil. You can't have it like yours. Mastamly. Jeez, but you know what else you could vlog? You were telling us right before we went into this about a $12 million yolo bet. What's this about? Yeah.

So basically what I did is I paid off all my margin, which was something that was kind of just like, I don't know, I'd look at it. I'm like, why do I have $6 million in margin? Like if the market went to the toilet, I can't come up with $6 million at the snap of a finger and pay that off. So I'm like, this is not so good. And I really believe that any kind of short term thing would just be short term. But when you've got margin, man, these banks, they got you, you know, they, got you in such a position where they can really, uh, you know, sell everything you got to pay off that debt and sell you at bottom. We saw that with GameStop too. When GameStop the first time around

started crashing, Robin Hood just starts liquidating people. Yeah. So at bottom prices too. So I, uh, I decided to, uh, sell. It was a nine and a half million dollars of stocks is what I sold. Uh, and I bought, uh, back $3.9 million in options. Uh, various different aspirations. And somebody did this calculation for me. I did a rough calculation. They did the exact calculation for me. And the exact number is, if I were to want to have the same upside with shares as I

have with that 3.9 in options, I would have to have $12,176,000 in shares. So I'm basically controlling that much potential market value with just a $12,176,000 in shares. So I'm basically controlling that much potential market value with just 3.7 million. And since I sold like nine, I got rid of my $6 million in margin, and I'm actually controlling more exposure to the market. Now, isn't there a chance those options expire worthless? Oh, yeah. So there's a chance. So your downside is going to be $3 something million if you lose this.

Right. So the way I was looking at this was that if, If there's like a margin call, you know, if the market goes to crap, I mean, the odds are the market wouldn't go to crap. I think it'd be pretty low to get margin called. I've never been margin called. It'd have to be some crazy crisis. But the worst case scenario on having the margin is they liquidate your shares at such a low level that you've now, the markets crash to such a level where they sell you out at bottom. They eliminate your margin.

They take away your credit line. So you can't even buy again at bottom if you want to. to because you'd had nothing. You'd probably be thrown in cash to try to prevent the margin call, so you wouldn't have any cash. And you'd kind of lose half your portfolio quickly through a really bad, what could just be a flash crash. Who knows? Maybe some crazy thing happens in June.

And, you know, the S&P 500 and the Dow's down 40%. Who knows, right? Whatever. The new COVID strain or whatever. And so I thought that, okay, there's a big risk that, gosh, what if like, you know, potentially, you know, six to seven to $10 million of your portfolio, just get eradicated. And I thought, okay, well, here, now I'm only taking a $3.9, $3.8-ish million risk. And I don't believe that's going to go to zero.

It could go to zero if I held them all. But I can always trade for longer-term options out in the future. So even if there were, you know, setbacks in the market, I could always grab like a 20-24 option next year. So since some of these are 20-23s, I'm optimistic. that I'm going to be okay. But the whole rationale behind it is, I think we're going, I think things are going to be great.

I really think things are going to get better. So I've actually taken this, I'm calling it a yolo because I'm taking much more risk, because yeah, you know, the options fluctuate way more. It could be a really stupid mistake if the markets trade sideways or downwards for the next two years. But I don't see it. I think we're going up.

And I'm pretty confident of that. Why not just go and buy the shares? You'd be sitting pretty comfy, just like $4 million bucks invested, and then you would never have to worry about it. Yeah, I don't know. What don't you know about? Well, I could have done that. And I think that's where it becomes a little yolo-y, because I could have easily done that, right? We could have sold, well, I just wouldn't have had to sell as much.

I could have, what I did is I closed out my M1 finance. and so I closed out my M1 finance to concentrate into my higher conviction holdings. So I had all these funds available and I thought, okay, what do I want to do with this? I've got, you know, $3.9 million here. Do I go shopping for options? Do I go shopping for shares? The beautiful thing about shares is you never have to pay taxes if you don't want to. You can just hold them forever, right?

And this was right before the whole Joe Biden capital gains thing. Yeah, we'll talk about that in a second. Yeah. Oh, yeah, we got to talk about that. But yeah, I mean, at the time, I was thinking, oh, no problem, we'll be able to, you know, we'll hold these options for long-term capital gains. I'll have no margin. And I think, I think this, the way I convinced myself to try to eliminate the margin is that, okay, well, if I do options, I could have no margin, but potentially have a really big upside to where I end up way better off than where I was before. Like that $12 million, imagine that, that, that, uh, or these options, the option values, if we get a big rally this summer or this fall, that could triple or quadruple in value. Uh, and so I look at that, I go, sweet.

I believe there's a chance that some of these things are going to do that. Maybe not all of the ones that I chose, but I believe there's a chance that maybe Tesla will. Maybe, uh, you know, all Tesla has to do is double in the options about quadruple in value, triple to quadruple in value. So I figure, you know what? Let's, let's do a little bit of a year. It's 27% of my portfolio. I really believe the market's going to rally either this fall, winter, or beginning of next year.

Let me put my money where my mouth is. And if it works out, I'll be able to look back and go, dang, I got rid of margin, didn't miss a bead in the market, and made more money. It's just a bet. I think it's super smart. But only really, obviously, I'm sure you have, but assessed your risk tolerance, which I'm sure you have. You said it was 27% of your portfolio. I think it's super smart. I've actually recently been buying some leap calls, which I've never really done before.

But just I want to say in the past like month or two, I bought like a couple long calls on Palantier. Because they were so dirt cheap. Like far in the money too. And so far I'm up. So yeah. What makes you think? What makes you so confident the market's going to go up? Well, so a few things.

one, I think we have, in my opinion, I think there's an overvaluation right now in recovery stocks, like restaurants, airlines, travel. I think they've had this insane run since November. And I think they're really overvalued for what are going to be crappy earnings. They're not going to be good. You know, sure, they didn't go bankrupt. So the bankruptcy risk is gone. And that totally makes sense.

Like, great, the companies go back. like Simon Property Group's not a bankruptcy risk anymore. So fine, it's selling for $116 a share instead of $49 a share like it was in the summer when people were thinking that's it. It's over. Moles are going bankrupt. And we thought it might be years to get a vaccine, right? So the run that we've seen makes sense. But do we really think Simon Property Group?

It used to trade for $150 before the pandemic. Do we really think this is going to go from $1.16 to $200 anytime soon? I don't. I wouldn't make that bet. What do I think is going to happen first? Tech doubling or that doubling? You know, I'll stick with the. tech. And over the last few couple months here, we've had a big old sell-off in tech and growth

because of inflation fears. I don't believe the inflation is coming. So in part, my bet is that we're going to have this period of inflation, but that long-term inflation that people are fearful of, I don't think it's going to be here. And so I thought, well, how can I make a bet that if my script, and I realize that's dangerous, is having a script. But if I have a script of what the market does, is it's garbage for the next, you know, what we've seen already, the last two months, garbage through the summer, totally possible, maybe sideways trading, whatever, we get all this uncertainty and doubt and fear. Garbage until we start seeing inflation trend downwards.

If inflation starts trending downwards, September, October, and all of a sudden, markets look and go, oh my gosh, we just printed all of that money. And yeah, a bunch of other countries around the world did, but we're the first to recover. We have more growth in our country than we did before in 2019 and our trajectory's gone up, which is crazy because the way I think about it is like we were on this trajectory, hit this hole of the pandemic. Now we're not back to that same line. We're actually higher than that same line because of all the stimulus has been happening.

The amount of growth that's coming to this country is going to be insane. Statistically, that's what we're seeing so far. The only thing that could stop it would be if inflation runs rampant. I don't believe it will because historically it hasn't. The last 20, 30 years, we've been on a downtrend, 40 years. We've been on a downtrend on inflation. I think that's going to continue. I side with the Fed on this.

And so I say, look, I believe I'm 70% plus likely to be right in my bet. And it'll work out well. I think there's a 10% chance. market trades down and I lose all those options. And I think it's less than 10%. The fact that they would go to zero, I think, is low because I would probably trade into longer terms. Like in 2022, I just trade up for longer terms, 20-24s or whatever. And then I think there's this 20% chance, and this stupid ear thing's bugging me, but I think there's a 20% chance the market trades sideways, which would be that as well. But so I look at it, I go, hey, look, if I can play roulette and somebody tells me I got a 70% chance

of winning, 70 plus percent chance of winning. winning and 20% chance that you're kind of break evenish. I thought, you know, at the same time as me being able to get out of margin while still having more exposure to the market, I'm like, sign me up. Worst case scenario, if I lose that 3.7, not going to make a difference in my life. What are you seeing kind of crappy right now in the market? Because you say things, you know, aren't looking so good right now. They're going to be kind of crappy between now and through summer. The only things that I'm really seeing crappy right now are SPACs. A lot of, because a lot of tech, is still relatively high

when you look back from even six months ago we're still better. We might not be as high as we were in January, February, but we're still doing pretty good. Yep, yep. Yeah, and this is true. Whoa, where are we, Graham? I don't know, man, but I'm just on public right now. Public? But we're in private.

No, public. The free stock trading app. What? Tell me more. Yeah, it's a free stock trading app where you could buy and sell stocks for as little as a dollar and best of all, they don't route your order flow. Oh my God, that sounds amazing. Yeah, but not only that, there's a social media feature where you could see what your friends are buying

and you could read up on stock information. Wow, it seems just like Twitter, but all about investing. Yeah, and best of all, if you sign up using the link down below in the description, they'll give you a free stock worth all the way up to $50. How much? Up to $50. Wow, is there anything else I should know? Yeah, when you deposit $100 on the platform by May 7,000,

you'll be entered for a chance to win a completely free stock of Tesla. Wow, I'm going to do that right now. Should our audience do this too? Absolutely. You too could get a free stock worth all the way up to $50. And plus, you could follow me in public and see exactly what I'm investing in. Awesome. Thank you so much for doing it right now.

I look forward to seeing you on there. And now we should get back to the video. So there are a few things going on. And it's, it's, golly. So I guess the place that I believe to start is I think people, have, first of all, a lot of fear that we are having this, this massive inflation is coming and it's here to stay. In fact, I would venture to say that probably 80 to 90% of the people we're going to be commenting on this video, I'm going to say, Kevin's crazy, like inflation is here to stay. I get it.

I think I'm making a contrarian bet here. I think I'm not siding with the majority of people. I think I'm siding with the minority of people who actually don't think inflation will last. And that's because inflation feels so real right now, because we're seeing prices of everything go up around us. And there are no shortages of anecdotes. There might be supply shortages, but there are no shortages of anecdotes of people saying, oh, this is more expensive. This is more expensive. Of course, pandemic screwed up a lot of things. But I think we're going to go back to lower levels of inflation because I believe so much in our global supply chains that companies are competitive. They don't want to raise prices. They want to beat their competitors. They want to have more market share. And they want to do

so more efficiently, which they can also thank you because of the pandemic, because so many people are working at home now. You just cut out business travel. One salesperson can talk to 50 people in a day where what used to be, you know, one medical sales rep going to maybe three doctor's offices in a day. Now they're going to 20 or more. You see what I mean? It's to me, we are, we are seeing so many deflationary polls. In other words, companies being able to have more profit margins just simply because of how common it is now to telecommute. You think, you do a sales presentation on Zoom before the pandemic? No freaking way.

Now, yeah, how else would we do it? You know what I mean? I'm wondering, with your sales rep analogy there, I'm wondering, let's just say doctors are now inundated with just Zoom call, Zoom call, Zoom call. Don't you think then that the tables are going to turn? And now you're going to think, like, well, I'm going to be the only one who's going to show up in person. And then all of a sudden, that one in person person is going to stand out above the rest because

they made the effort to show up. I'm here. Here's what I have to offer. And I feel like it's easier to say no to somebody over a call. I think when you're in person, sometimes you have that energy that it's like you want to do business with that person because you see them face to face. I don't know if that's going away anytime soon. Look, there's no, nothing's ever going to, I think, in the long term, replace the handshake deal,

right? Getting in the boardroom and making a deal. I think, though, and this is just the excitement that I have about where our market is heading as I think every company is looking at it maybe maybe not just sales but it's every layer of the company from human resources to gosh I'm sure internal IT support everything going virtual now everything is so much more streamlined and these are all all these numbers are going to show up in bottom line margins especially for these tech companies so there's that big shift that's massively deflationary and so I think I'm going to be right about inflation I think we're going to have

low inflation you might be right yeah I mean the handshake deals at some point, they will come back. But then again, you might have doctors who are like, look, you know, for me to sit down in a meeting with you, I could be meeting with 10 clients. Like, this isn't worth my time. Who knows? We'll see what happens. But that's a good counter. But it's not just the inflation argument. You've also got a lot of hedge funds right now shorting the market and partially de-leveraging. A lot of de-leveraging started happening after the Arkego's fallout, which when people spend, if people take on less, debt or companies take on less debt, they put less buying pressure on the market. So you see stocks

have, well, less buying pressure. Then you're seeing hedge funds short because they're like, there's no way these tech companies are hitting these earnings because the earnings expectations are through the roof. So hedgeies are shorting. If they're right, they have their long positions. If they're wrong, they don't lose their clients because they have their short positions. But that also puts downside pressure on stocks. I think all of that is weighing on the market. So you have inflation fear. You have de-leverging. You have hedge funds shorting. You have the SPAC attack. You've got Biden doing crazy stuff with, okay, are we going to print $2.2 trillion? Or are we going to print $4 trillion? What's it going to be Biden? You say you're negotiable. We don't know. We got the

corporate tax thing now. We got the capital gains thing that just came out this week. There's so much where people are like, I don't even know what to make of all of this. Is the Fed going to taper soon? Like chicken with head cut off and that's when I want to double down in the market. You said that you think there may be a 10% chance that the inflation happens or whatever. If I remember correctly, what do you think that 10% chance looks like and what would have, like, what would have to happen to cause that that 10% chance? Yeah. So 10% chance of me losing all like, like having a, having a bare market by the time my options expire,

which which would I think relate to being wrong about inflation. So I think in September, October, by then we'll know, we'll see inflation numbers are going to come in very high over the next two months, the highest we've ever seen. Here are May reading for April, June reading for May. They're going to be a disaster. The headline numbers are going to be 3.5, 3.6%. It's going to be the ugliest numbers we've seen forever, or at least in the last 15, 20 years. I think the problem that happens is is that number is going to come down. It'll naturally come down to probably 2.5 or whatever. And so what you're going to be looking for is come July, August, you're going to be looking for that number.

Is it trending back up? That's when the problem happens. So when we get rid of those base effects from comparing the last year, we actually get to normal numbers again. If we start seeing that inflation trend go up, And all of a sudden it's like, oh, man, we had more inflation in July. We had more inflation in August. We had more inflation in September.

It's trending up. Then you know the Fed's going to start going, oh, oh, that's not good. Now all of a sudden, that whole argument of stable prices is potentially going to lead the Fed to act sooner, especially if at the same time the unemployment rate is falling. So, which I expect it will. Unemployment runs out in September. So people are going to be looking for jobs, the people who are unemployment. Hopefully people are already looking for jobs.

So at the same time as the unemployment rate plummets, if all of a sudden, July, September, August, around there, we start seeing that inflation rate trick up as well. Fed's going to U-turn and they're going to end up having to raise rates much sooner than expected. And we'll probably see that 20-22 rate increase. That's when things are going to get really blurry because they really screwed up in 2018 when they tried to do this. Graham, I think we were actually, we were at some thing in, oh gosh, where was it? It was like Beverly or not Beverly. I don't know. Maybe it's Hollywood, West Hollywood or something like that.

The driven, the driven conference. Oh, gosh. Yeah. So that morning, I actually did a live stream prepping on my phone. I was sitting there, like at the registration area. I did a live stream on my phone. Hey, guys, okay, look, this is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said. Like, same thing that I'm still doing today, which is crazy because it's like three years later.

But they screwed up. You know, they jacked rates up in May. and that summer, they spanked real estate. Real estate prices plummeted, you know, 10, 15, 20%. Today, you did a video on real estate prices going up 17%. They could fall that in two months if they jack up rates too fast. They failed in 18, caused a market crash at the end of 18. That same thing could happen again.

And that's my 10% scenario. That's going to suck. Got it. Do you think, though, it's possible to have inflation with somewhat high unemployment? Like, to the point where, yeah. like to the point where, you know, they want equal employment for everybody. Is it possible that they don't achieve that, but inflation still comes up? And there are at a crossroads between what do we do?

Do we go against what we said we're going to do? Or do we just let inflation happen? Or we raise rates and then all of a sudden everything we said means nothing. Yeah, could happen. So black unemployment, for example, right now is like 9.6%. white unemployment is 5.4%. And it's entirely possible that the entire unemployment rate doesn't get down to those lower levels until like 2023 or something.

So imagine we get to the end of 2021 and we barely get to 5%. Or you know what? Unemployment stays stuck at 5.5% for some reason or 6%. Elevated levels. And then all of a sudden we see inflation because the supply chains are still broken. Yeah. Can that happen? Totally. Totally that could happen. And that persistent inflation might stay if all of a sudden people are

continuing to pay prices and there's less competitiveness to bring those prices down because maybe it's harder to start a business. Maybe it's harder to open another lumber mill. Maybe it's harder to open another, you know, circuit factory or maybe it takes two years for a factory to get up and running to compete. Sure. Could we be in an era of high inflation? for the next two years, yeah, that's going to suck. And that would be entirely because all of a sudden maybe there's more demand than we really have the supply for, despite everything maybe firing on all cylinders again, no COVID, but we still need that many more factories,

but it takes that much time to do more factories or create new factories. Yeah, yeah, sure. We could definitely, there is a scenario where we could see higher inflation for the next few years. Do I think it'll be more than like 4%. No way. Like I don't see any scenario where it goes over 4%. But the Fed's going to panic if it sits at 3%. longer than I think these next two months.

You know, they're going to be expecting it to go to five, bob around that two five range, their measure of inflation, the PCE. Yeah. But if it goes up more than that, yeah, they'll start panicking, I think. But for now, they're just steadfast. And the market's starting to believe them. That's the other thing. What's weird is the market's

finally starting to believe the Fed again, and we're starting to see yields come down. The 10-year treasuries coming down, the five years coming. They're all trending down. It's a sign the market's starting to believe them again. Couldn't you argue, too, that inflation would be good for some asset prices? Like, wouldn't you believe that for real estate? Yeah.

Great in the long term. Okay. Very bad in the short term. So, because they're going to jack up rates to combat inflation, which is terrible in the short term for real estate. In the long term, if we actually have real inflation, oh, come on. Yeah. Like, it's, it's wonderful.

It's wonderful if you own a bunch of debt, especially on real estate. In fact, I want to go buy more real estate. The other reason I paid off my margin and I haven't mentioned this, But another reason I paid off my margin is because I now got $6 million or actually, no, it's like $7 or $8 million if I wanted to, available in credit lines to where if I, let's say, found a deal I had to put, let's say I got together $8 million and I found a deal I had to put, I don't know, 35% on divided by $35. I could buy a deal for $23 million if I wanted to. I could go find some multifamily building by a $23 million multifamily building. Now I'd be taking out that margin again. I'd be taking a big risk. but if I found a big juicy building, the tax write-offs on that,

I don't think I'd be paid income taxes this year. Now, that's a good segue to what's going on right now with the capital gains. That would be a huge win for real estate. I got to say, I would be tempted if capital gains stayed at, let's just say, 40%, plus it's an additional, what is it, 3.8% on top of that. So we're looking at, yeah, so we'll call it 43%.

44% I would be very tempted at that point to stop investing in the stock market and actually get back into real estate. I'd be very tempted. It's so funny you say that I could not agree more. In fact, just the last few days, I've been looking at real estate every day, probably 10x what I had been. Quite frankly, I look in May, I went ham buying real estate last year. I'm very happy I did.

About 11 properties last year is insane. too much at once. Happy I did. But once I got overwhelmed in August with all the projects I was doing in real estate, I'm like, that's it, I'm done. I don't think I've looked at Redfin

as much between August and probably, what, April? Yeah, August to April. So what is that? I don't know, like eight months or something like that. I've probably looked at Redfin and Zillow and Realtor.com more in the last two days than I have in the last eight months. Right. You know, a big thing for me that I was actually thinking, lately I've been doing a lot of investing in startup companies.

And the advantage for me there is that I could lock in my basis right now. And that my hope was that four to ten years from now, who knows when, I would be able to cash out this very large amount and utilize the long-term capital gains. But if I have a choice between taking my money now and having access to it today, then being taxed almost 50% 10 years from now, I would almost rather say it's not worth it anymore. It's better to have the access to the cash now, go and buy real estate, than take a risk tying up my money for five to ten years. That's huge. And I think that's going to be a big deterrent for a lot of investors,

a lot of startup companies, if that happens. Do you want to explain exactly what the new proposal says? The tax proposal, of course. Sure. So they're actually calling it the death of a potentially syllable. Valley. So because of exactly what you've described, because think about it, venture capitalists in Silicon Valley, they're trying to do exactly what you're talking about. They find small startups and, hey, let's invest, you know, a million dollars, $10 million, $50,000, whatever,

any range, depending on if somebody's an angel investor or VC. And they're looking to cash out. The point of doing these startup investments is to cash out at some point. And you can't exchange change that, which is just a tax way of saying, when you cash out, you pay taxes. So the old school M.O. was Angel invest in the Robin Hoods, the Facebook, the Coinbase, whatever, when they're tiny. Then motivate them to IPO when the market seems ripe. Go IPO or direct list, whatever. And what it does is it lets all of those original investors out. It lets them all out. And those are some sweet, long-term gains taxed at 20% for, you know, if you're making over like $500-something,000, it's taxed at 20% plus your state.

If you're making less than that, it's taxed at like 15%. If you're making less than 40 grand capital gains are taxed 0%, is-ish. I'm rounding on those numbers right around there. The new proposal... How do we get back here? This is weird. I don't know. I'm still on public, though.

Public. I thought we're in private. I thought we're in private. No, Jack. You're just dumb. Oh, I guess I am dumb for not getting my free stock worth up to $50 on public. You haven't done that yet? I haven't. Oh, my, it takes you just a few minutes to do and the stock is worth all the way up to $50.

$50. Yes, $50. And I also heard there's actually an event going on if you deposit $100 by May 7th. Yeah, you could get a completely free stock worth of Tesla. Tesla? Tesla. Elon Musk. And that's almost $700 right now.

Yes, assuming the current market price as of today. Well, Graham, how can I sign up? You don't remember? I just told you like a minute ago. Yes, you could use the link down below in the description. It's totally easy to do, and they don't route your order flow. Oh, Mike, I'll do that right now. Thank you.

And we should get back to the video. What happened to Kevin? We left them hanging. Back to you, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin. Says that, okay, as soon as you make over a million dollars of income, all of your capital gains, matter if it's a dollar or if it's a million dollars or ten millions. Every capital gain that you

make, once you make over a million dollars is taxed at ordinary income levels, which Biden expects to raise to 39.6%. Add to that the Obamacare investment tax, which adds 4.8%. Now you're at 43 point, was at 43.4% in taxes. Add to that, your state tax. You guys are in Vegas. Y'all lucky, Okay, 43 point, what did I say here? 39.6 plus the 4.8. That's, uh, I don't know, somewhere around like the 44-ish level. Plus California, 13.4.

I'm paying 57-ish percent in taxes. Yeah. It's insane. So now this is why they're talking about the death of potentially VCs in Silicon Valley, uh, and the death of Silicon Valley. It's going to, it's going to end up being Texas.

Like people are going to start doing this in Austin, Texas more Florida, more Miami. It's going to be Miami. Miami and Texas are going to be the new hubs, maybe Seattle, probably not Seattle, Austin and Miami probably. Buy real estate there. That would be a good idea. And Vegas. And Vegas. You guys got to get VCs in Vegas.

I mean, you got the convention centers. So, I mean, now think about it. If you're in California, you're giving almost 60% of your long-term gains to the government. if you're a venture capitalist, like why? Why bother? So that begs the question, okay, well, let's say, let's just come up with an example. If I had, and this has important implications too for people even making under a million dollars because it affects them, and I'll show you how, if now somebody says, okay, I'm going to take $20 million. And instead of putting it into a VC fund, which raises valuations of companies, which helps raise IPO prices and helps raise stocks, it all trickles up.

those stocks those valuations go higher they IPO higher people cash out they have more money to go buy other stocks it's all part of the big game so now instead of maybe the vc's putting that 20 million dollars in to i don't know startup you know the next makeup startup or tech startup or whatever they take that 20 mil and go i'm going to go buy a 100 unit apartment building somewhere then they take like a 30% cost segregation right off they instead of in the future paying 60% on their long-term gains, they go, today, I'm going to save $8 million in taxes while I'm investing in this because I cost segregated it, especially if they call themselves a real estate professional, which I think a lot more people are going to become real estate professionals after

this mess. But then they go in the future 10 years down the road. I want to sell this building, just 1031 exchange it, aka, don't pay taxes because you're just going to put those in the next building. Do it forever. And in the future, when you die, pass it on to your children tax-free. right well isn't well i mean then you have the estate tax which then you start getting into then you'll then you'll set up a trust yeah then you start having to do some funny things but uh slowly divesting your portfolio but that's that's problems like if you're a couple that those are problems when your assets are over you know your net worth's over like 23 million dollars right at that point you got other problems but yeah i am worried that uh i'm legitimately concerned

that if that does pass, a lot of investors and even entrepreneurs would say, what's the point? If I sacrifice everything to start up a business, I'm going to work away at it, not making any money, let's say for five years with the hope of maybe one day it's going to pay off. They'll think, you, what's the point if I have to give 60% of that away? I'm not even going to bother. Why do that for 40% of the upside when I could risk 100% of the downside? Oh, yeah. I mean, it's a calculation. I mean, it's, I think the entrepreneurial spirit will still be there. There's still going to be people who are like, look, I'm broken in a basement. I got an idea. Look, you know, maybe I'm making 10 grand working at Red Robin, you know, going from 10 grand to 100 grand income is going to be huge for them. So I think the entrepreneurial spirit will still be there. But at what point does it become limited? And I think that's that's where what you're saying is so right, because at what point do venture capital is just say, you know what, I don't want to invest anymore. I don't want to do

VC anymore because what's the point? Why I'm giving away so much money. I think that's where the issue comes is the funding for those entrepreneurs is going to be less and future valuations will be lower. It all it all balances out like they say there's no free lunch. But I remember 2015 I did the most deals I ever did in a year. It was like 61 deals or something like that by myself without an assistant. That was the most stress I've ever done. had in my life and it was so toxic it was bad and I remember sitting with my father-in-law for beer and I'm like I just worked so hard to have the biggest year of my life in real estate which was I don't know like probably somewhere around 600 grand in commissions or something like that

which is really freaking amazing and the expenses are so low in real estate I probably had like 50 grand of expenses so here you go worked so hard to make 550K built this business up for five years And now it's this is awesome. This is so cool. And then I look at it go, oh my gosh, every extra hundred grand I'm making. I'm given like 47% or whatever to the federal government in the state of California or more. I think it was like 50% at the time. Why am I doing this?

Like what's the point? And in 2016, I consciously decided I'm going to work less. And instead of making 600 grand being stressed out like crazy because I was so disillusioned with how much I was paying taxes, I'm like, I'm just going to take it easier. I'm just going to have fun. Like, why am I working so hard to give so much to the government? And I still did well. I had a $400,000 year, you know, after expenses be like $350.

But it was way less stressful and 110% taxes had the influence in that. Wow. That's wild. So what do you think the chances are of this passing? What I think is going to happen is that he's going to ask a lot. They're going to ask for more than they know they can get. And I think it's a negotiation tactic. And they're going to start at 40% and then work their way.

It may maybe find a middle ground. Interestingly enough, though, I did research on this a while ago. This is a few months ago. And I found an article that actually dove into this further and actually studied this. And they found that the optimal long-term capital gains tax is 28% in terms of encouraging people actually follow it. Not so much as to hold their investments not sell. But they found that that was the idea. yield amount 28% to encourage people to still invest, but while maximizing tax revenue.

That's interesting. Yeah. So, well, a couple things there. Do we think that Biden, well, so first of all, I don't think we're going to see D.C. statehood. D.C. statehood would give Democrats pretty much complete control. You know, they would have sway over the moderate Democratic. who potentially hold things up in this situation, but I don't think that's going to happen,

because then Joe Manchin would lose a lot of his power. So right now, because that's, DC statehood's not going to get through the Senate. Republicans aren't going to go for that. You're not going to see that as budget or econ. So pass the House, but it's not going to pass the Senate. That leaves people like Joe Manchin standing in the way of what Biden wants. Biden, I think you're right, wants to start high and come across as negotiating, but ultimately, as long as he gets Democrats on board, he doesn't need a single Republican. He doesn't need to negotiate. All he has to do is convince Joe Manchin. So far, the only thing he's, Joe Manchin has complained about has been the corporate tax rate. He says, I don't want to see corporate tax rates higher than 25%. He doesn't

said anything about the capital gains tax. You know, tax it. And the way the Biden administration is branding this is, hey, look, it only affects one third of one percent of people. They're right. It does only affect the top one third of the top 1%. Now, we happen to be in that. So it sucks. But, yeah, that's the way they're branding it. So unless you get somebody like a moderate, like Joe Manchin coming out going,

no, you know, this is ridiculous. Joe Manchin could end up going, look, give me the 24%. Give me a 23. Give me a 25% corporate tax rate. And I'll give you your vote on the long term cap gains for, the rich folk. Yeah, I think it could pass. I would probably say I'm 50-50 on it right now.

Wow, that's actually higher. I was thinking, realistically, there would be no way for this to pass as is. I would expect maybe not 39, or maybe they do a tiered system. I've seen a few different proposals from just random people online that I actually really agree with. A few of them break up long-term capital gains in terms of how long you've held your investment. Maybe it's, if you've held it between year one and year two, you get taxed as ordinary income. Maybe your three goes down from 39 to 35.

Year 4, 35 to 30. And maybe at year 8, then it's full-on long-term capital gains to really encourage long-term investment of longer than a year. Or have it structured in such a way where maybe your first million dollars would be taxed at 25%. The next million dollars would be taxed it. you know and have that be a threshold just like any other I think it'd be very interesting yeah. Because otherwise you have this massive bump

and it's so set. I think that's, I think those are great ideas. I think they're possible. I think to see any of those sort of take hold, you got to watch those moderates. It's not,

the Republicans have so little power right now. It's amazing just how little they actually have. And I like those. ideas and I think sure is a tiered system like that possible yeah but look you know I mean look back to what we have in history here and it's it's been recent but I look back at the stimulus package Joe Biden says look we're gonna do the extra $1,400 and we're gonna do the he initially came out and said $400 was the plan through the end of September and so what they did was they took the $400 made it $300.

was a compromise. Instead of going through the end of September, it actually only goes through the end of August, so first week of September-ish. And they cut the eligibility for the $1,400 stimulus check, a good chunk, like a couple making $200K, wasn't getting it, isn't getting it at all anymore. Now if the cutoffs, it's a $160k, instead of $200K. So I do think there could be fine-tuning like that, but the bigger pieces they still got, still got the $1,400, still got unemployment through basically September. But yeah, it is $100 less. So is it possible we'll see some adjusting like that and will it come with maybe some tiers, sure. But I think it'd probably be a small adjustment. I don't think it's going to be a really big adjustment. Like Biden's got, he's got a lot of power

right now. If he's got to give a few little concessions away to get some moderates on board that he needs to get to his 50 votes, that's what it'll give. But I don't think it's going to be a big adjustment. If you were to offer a solution to long, long term capital gains, what do you think is the most effective and reasonable rate that it should be taxed at? I mean, I haven't done the research on that. You know, Graham mentioned that he had, and I thought that's great. I mean, personally, I like, you know, if they're trying to pay for infrastructure, which is

what they're trying to do, I would rather see them focus on use taxes, right? I mean, like tax, I don't know. I don't understand why they're not taxing carbon emissions. I mean, this has been, this has been studied so many times. The World Bank talks about it. The IMF talked about it this morning. They were talking about taxing carbon emissions and how right now the world's only valuing, I don't know exactly the number, but it was like right now the world's only valuing

carbon emissions at like $2 per, I think it's metric ton. I don't know exactly what it was, something like that. And they're like, really, if we want to have a green revolution, we need to start valuing carbon emissions at like $70 a metric ton. And, you know, that's, I think, the direction you go. You want to raise money. Tax the polluters. Not, like, what, you know, taxing and potentially robbing a venture capital of

startup investments through these higher tax rates. I don't, I'm not heavily in support of that. I'm also not heavily in support of a higher individual tax. rate going from where we are now with the 38% back to the 39.6 because I personally felt that disincentivization. That's another word. So, you know, what's the right answer? I mean, to me, which they're not going to do, I think the right answer is where they're not looking. And it's taxing carbon emissions to pay for their infrastructure. But they're not even remotely interested in that. So it's going to end up being something with capital gains and something with the ordinary tax is going

know. You know what I am grateful for so far is no mention. And you know what? If this is where we stop and it's it's no more, no more these tax changes, I'm actually going to knock on wood, maybe just seal my lips over here. Why are we here again? I don't know, man. This is weird. We shouldn't be back here. Then why are we here? It's probably because you didn't get your free stock worth all the way to $50. Oh, I'll do that right now. You haven't done it yet? Okay, I'll do it right now. It takes you just a few moments to do and you could get a free We're all the way up to $50. With a chance,

Shh, Bailey, Bailey, with a chance to get a completely free stock of Tesla when you deposit $100 by May 7th. Wow, so I can get a chance to win a free stock of Tesla? That's it, and it just takes you a few minutes. I'll get on it right now. All right, let's get back to the video, and hopefully we don't end up back here again.

Because they have not talked about, or they have not brought up again, because they previously talked about. 1031 exchange getting eliminated. Yeah. And the step-up tax basis getting eliminated. Both of those are big because, see, my escape from this new rule is just going into real estate. Well, the steps-to-tax basis was implemented or overturned in California, though.

Well, so I think then there are two different stepped-up tax bases than we're touching on. So there's the property tax basis, which you're totally right on. That's gone. That's gone. That's what I mean, property tax. Yeah. So the property tax bases, you're right. That's gone. And they snuck that in there. I wouldn't be surprised that that comes up on a ballot again in California. California is a mess right now with all the proposals and nonsense they've got. The basis, which really doesn't affect us, the stepped up, the other stepped up tax bases. The other stepped up tax basis is you die. And let's say you have a, you know, place you bought for $400,000. You depreciated it to zero. And now it's worth $10 million. Just to be extreme. If I sold a, you sold a place you bought for $400,000, you depreciated it to zero. And now it's worth $10 million. Just to be extreme. If I sold a it the day before I died on my deathbed, I would have to pay capital gains taxes on $10 million

after selling fees, right? If I die, my heirs would pay zero taxes because they would move that basis from zero to 10 mil. And all of a sudden, they could sell it the very next day after I die and pay $0 in taxes. Okay. So that's what I was mentioning. So what I was referring to is property tax. Yep, yeah, exactly. So, so So that's where real estate is still this like, and you're right, California, they sneak things in. I mean, that's messed up. They got rid of that basis adjustment. But real estate still has this beautiful holdout right now that even though prices are high,

I'm really tempted to double down and buy some more real estate, especially if I could get my hands on a bigger building or even some more single families. I'm in escrow on a single family fixer upper right now. And I just want more of them. I don't even want the cash flow. I don't care about the cash flow. I just want to control the value because it's also, if I'm wrong on those options, the real estate is actually going to be a hedge because if I'm wrong on the options, that means we have inflation, which should be good for my real estate and my real estate debt long term.

Do you think they would ever touch the laws regarding real estate or tax code regarding real estate to make it just as bad as investing in like stocks and stuff like that? No, because the politicians, they all got real estate. They're not going to poop where they sleep. So that's what it is? The problem with real estate that I feel like you don't have as much with stocks, which sounds crazy. But real estate is the fifth largest lobby. It's one of the top five lobbies.

I think National Rifles 2. National Realtor Association is up there in like top 5. The NRA sees this stuff about stepped up tax basis and 1031 exchange. As soon as they see, that. The National Association of Realtors, if I said, NAR. The NAR, National Association of Realtors, they get in there, and I wouldn't, I would not be shocked. You start having the lobbyists showing up in Congress, like, hey, wrote up an idea for you, folks on Biden's team, here you go. Check this out. Oh, doubling the capital gains taxes

on people making over a million dollars. Yeah, yeah, it's a really great idea. Oh, okay, yeah, we'll bring this over to Biden and says nothing about real estate. I wouldn't be surprised if you got a ton of people in the real estate lobby doing that stuff. They don't want anything about real estate mentioned. And guess what? Whether that's what's happening or not, real estate's not getting mentioned. Knock on wood. I wanted to circle back to the options just to know, like, what kind of investments you made in those contracts.

What kind of investments I made? Yeah, like what stocks, expiration date, strikes and stuff like that. Yeah, just like generally speaking, obviously not every single one, but the bigger positions. Sure, yeah, no, I'll give you some examples here. So I did this on Tuesday, which Tuesday was a crap day. Like Tuesday was bad. Everything was in the toilet. And I'm like, man, if I make a transition into options and I leverage in more,

probably a good time to do it when everybody's freaking out. I love taking advantage of freakouts. So a lot of them went into Tesla, a lot. Of course. This is a better spreadsheet. No, this is easier. Yeah, so I've got, I spread them out on Tesla. I got 650, 900, 1,300, 1725, and $900, $900, $900 calls all pretty much Jan and March, 23.

So they're pretty long. And some in the money, most of them out of the money. But then again, the ones that are in the money, I put, let's see, hold on, let me see here. The 650s, $320,000 into the 650s, $4508. grand into the 900's a hundred grand into the 1725 like that's like the yolo uh 900 dollar one has you know 353,000 so lots of Tesla of course it's it's my highest conviction I still believe it people think I'm stupid and crazy for doing but I don't care I love Tesla it's bad but I also threw a couple hundred grand at sea couple 150 grand in a lemonade 125 into Neo

these are all all pretty much 2023s uh you know some money into some of the spaks like matterport or cciv end phase end phase i put 500 500 44000 dollars into end phase options for january uh 20 20 23 150 dollar so i bought them slightly in the money i think they were like 155 at that point i think they ended at like 170 today the share price and right now those options alone are up $129,000. They're up 31%. It's like those end-based ones are just printing money right now.

Coinbase down like $17,000 and most of the options that I got on Tuesday. Actually, with the exception of Coinbase, every option that I got on Tuesday is up. So, I mean, it's very short term. You know, we're recording this on Friday. So too early. How do taxes work on options when you exercise those options? Yeah. So I'm not going to exercise them.

I'm going to sell these. The two things I can do, I can exercise them. But if I exercise them, I lose the extra value. Because if I exercise, I'm going to take the shares. Exercising is actually a great way to save taxes, though. Because let's say I have this $650 call on Tesla. And then in January of 2023, Tesla's at 2000. And then I exercise and I get the shares for 650.

Hey, that's great. I buy the shares for $650. The market value is $2,000 right now. Perfect. I'm up. But I plan on, and at that point, in that scenario, I wouldn't pay taxes. That would be built into my cost basis of those shares because I'd just be getting them for $6.50. Got it.

Plus whatever I paid for the contract. But with options, a good chunk of the value is hope. I call it hopium just to make it simple. And hopium is like, well, but it could go up even more. You know? And I want to profit off not only what it's in the money, but. off the hopium. So I want that hopium. So I'll probably sell these. Well, next time we get a big rally, I'll sell them. If we get a big rally next month, I'll dump all of these options and I'll just buy

shares again because I just don't want the stress. But whether I sell them, you know, this year or next year or whatever, when I sell those contracts, they'll just be capital gains, either short term or long term depending on when that rally comes and when I sell them. So I will be looking at how good of a rally it is in terms of how much I'm up, considering that I have to pay taxes, how much am I net up, and then does it make sense

to take that net treasure chest, throw it all into shares? And my goal is to be better off than where I was before, except have no margin. That makes sense. It's a crazy yolo. No, it's smart.

A lot of the in-the-money stuff I'm totally on board with, like the leaps and stuff with the in-the-money calls. I love those. That's like, if I do do any long calls, that's typically what I do. And I bought Tuesday as well, which was pretty awesome.

But yeah, I totally, I agree with that. I think that was smart to get into some options like that. Yeah, it's, I will say, though, Graham, you've got this style of I just don't want stress. And I admire that because, look, I mean, you know, now I got to keep an eye off for that rally. If I had the shares, I wouldn't have to, you know? Yeah, but keeping an eye on making a whole bunch of money, that's not a problem. That's not stress. Your stress is, I got to keep it out on the market

so when I make too much money, I lock in those profits. Yeah, I mean, it could all go down too, but yes, yes, the theory is, that is what I'm waiting for. Gosh, what do you think of Jack holding onto Dogecoin? What do you think of that? He turned his $100 investment into Dogeman.

It was $9,000, like a couple of days ago. $100 to $9,000. can believe that. And yeah, and had I held, my $1,000 would have turned into like $91,000 at the peak. I mean, I put $25 grand into Doge, and it turned into $75 grand, and I sold it so fast because I'm like, dude, I made $50 grand in a day. See ya. You know, same thing.

Had I held, I don't even want to do the math on that because I were to be like crap. When did you sell? Did you sell when it hit like 10 cents? I sold This was actually a while ago I think this was back in January Like mid-January Wow so it would have been

Back then like five cents Six cents Your order to buy one million Doge has been filled for $25,000 It was one million Doge So what is that So a million

So 400 410,000 Is that what it is? Yeah That's what it is At its peak That's the value 25 cents.

Right. So it would have been $250. So it would have 10. But at his peak it was like 410. Yeah. Gosh. Hey, you still did better than someone that I know. You better than me.

You made money with Doad. I cannot say I've done that before. Turn 100 and 9,000 is incredible. Why not just lock it in? You told me to sell when it was at 6,000. You said sell right now. And then guess what happened? It went down, but then it went back up to 9,000.

Right. But then you would still be up. $1,500 where you are today. But it's not about, it's not about the quick profit. It's about A, the principle and it's about B, sticking with,

you've been holding on to this for a year. All right, it's been marinating, but like, it's about, it's about the principle at which you invest, like why you invested on,

like in an investment. Kevin. The grounds at which you, you invested in it, which, which for me was like, I think it's funny that there's doge coin.

I think it's cool, it's unique, and that's why I put it in, and I knew for fact I was holding on for life. For life. For life. So you're going to hold this until you're 50, 60 years old. I knew, look, that $100, I was like, this is play money. This is fun money. And I've had so much fun with it.

I've had so much fun. And just because I made $9,000, you know, I get a comment every here and, like, every now and then somebody's like patting my back on the podcast or whatever. They'd be like, good job, Jack, your diamond handsing. You know, look at Graham. He sold out. You know, the night of that he bought it or whatever. And those comments like that make me proud to hold on to Dogecoin. Even if, sure, I'm down $5,000 or $4,000 since its peak, but whatever. That was a burn. That was a burn. Yeah. Look, you got to, it depends on how you look at it. Yeah.

If you are a hodler, then good for you. Then the fluctuations are entertainment. They're fun. There's something to talk about. Wow, look what Doge did today. You're a hodler. Great. If you're, what I say, if you're a trader, fine, do the fluctuations.

You're a hodler. Great. Hodel forever. Fine. I'll probably hodel Tesla for forever. I don't know. Maybe something I'll change in 20 years. Who knows?

But that's the plan right now. It's just a hoddle. I don't care what happens in the short term. Maybe that's the same thing with you on Doge. So that way when Kevin O'Leary tells me, oh, you know, well, if Tesla goes down 40%, like, well, buy more, you know, it doesn't matter. But I think there is a person that invested in Doge,

and they put all their money in it because they see Elon Musk tweeting about it. They put, you know, their, they're only $100,000 in. And it turns into a million dollars. And then there's actually, I'm pretty sure, there was a, there was a CNBC article about this. This guy put 140 grand in. It turned into over a million dollars at one point. And so he literally became a doge coin millionaire.

And I'm thinking to myself, and we don't know, but let's say the dude works making 50 grand a year. I'm like, I'm reading this. I'm like, this is incredible dude. whole my gosh sell like change your life this is this is life changing amounts of money for you i don't know how much you make but assuming it's like the average you know 50 60k or whatever sell what are you doing you just you got like 10 you know after taxes you got 10 years after taxes you got 10 years worth of working your job boom in two months what are you doing and in the article

they're like well my plan is to hold on until it hits 10 million and then i'll sell one million and live off that. Like, okay, look, at some point, it is fine. It is, I'm happy that you're bullish on a momentum trade, but you can't hit yourself. I'm not bullish. I just want to make, I just want to make it clear. I'm not bullish. I'm not bullish on Dogecoin.

Just want to make that clear to anyone who's, who's watching. So, Jack, we're back here again. Oh no, why is that? Because you didn't get your free stock worth all the way up to $50. But I actually did this time. I actually did check this out. No way, really? Whoa!

I know. Congratulations. Thank you. I'm so happy. Wow, did you deposit $100 too? Yes, I did. Okay, so now you're going to be answered for a chance to win a free stock of Tesla. Of what?

Tesla. Oh my gosh. Oh, okay, let's get back to Kevin now. Back to you, Kev. If it's a momentum trade and you've got life-changing amounts of money, GTFO, $9,000 isn't going to change your life, Jack. $1,500, that $9,000, somebody can hack your Robin Hood tomorrow and take your Doge coin away, and it would make a difference to your life. This dude, assuming he's working for $5,000. who turned Doge into a million dollars and he's like, oh, this is the best thing ever.

It's the best thing saying slice bread. It's going to 10x. Really? It's going to go from a $50 billion market cap to a $500 billion market cap doubling what Ethereum is right now. Folks, like at some point, and maybe it'll happen, but at some point, some logic has to set in. That's all I got to say. So you met with Kevin O'Leary.

How did that come about? Instagram. No. Wow. Did you message him? No, there are, uh, uh, well, actually, no, I had messaged him a while ago, but he didn't answer. Uh, so, but what happened was, uh, his, like media coordinator or whatever was like, oh, I saw you on YouTube and, uh, I have these people who'd be interesting for you to interview or whatever. Uh, so I went into, uh, Kevin O'Leary's DMs and you had already messaged us. So, like, she was coming to message me, but my message was in there.

And she's like, oh, this is perfect. Wow. So it's kind of a little bit of both. Cool. And what was that like to meet him? To me, it was so real. Yeah, a little bit. It's probably, I have to say, I haven't been nervous for, for an interview.

The only time I was ever nervous was the Robin Hood one. And I think it was because I was worried that everybody was going to hate the fact that I interviewed the CEO. So I was really worried about backlash, so I was like sweating bullets, like, you know, the pit stains and everything. I'm like, oh, crap, this could be really bad. You know, another one I was really nervous for, actually, was I did this interview with Lauren Southern, like, really, really pulling. I remember. Yes. Yeah. That had like a 77% like ratio, like the worst ever in a very, very long period time.

That I was nervous about, very, very nervous. So I think the nerves come from like, okay, is this going to be good or bad for the channel? If it's potentially bad, I'm freaking out. I'm thinking about it from the channel point of view. For Kevin O'Leary, it was really natural because we just get into talking. It was, you know, I think it was interesting when, you know, they sort of first pop in kind of like the Zoom call and it's like, oh, damn, he's actually there. You know, like he's a real person. Like that initial feeling was certainly there.

But yeah, I mean, I mean, it's fun. That's all I could say. I look forward to doing more things like that. I'd love to get like politicians on. Like how cool if we could get like Mitch McConnell or Nancy Pelosi. Like, is there going to be a four stimulus check, Nancy? They gotta start doing that. Imagine Mitch McConnell is streaming with Pokeyane or something.

They gotta start doing it. Seriously. You know, you know, one of the first. these days when like people are age are becoming politicians and they're really getting involved because everyone right now is like 50, 60, 70 years old. Imagine now

when we're in our 50s or 60s doing like you know, TikTok dances and stuff like that for votes. Like imagine Nancy Pelosi on TikTok doing like the what's your name? Bella Porch. Imagine that do I want to?

Dude. Imagine her doing that. And then at the edge, like, vote for me. Race, you know, let's raise taxes. Hey, did you hear of Caitlin Jenner's running for governor? Oh, yes, yeah. Yeah, yeah. So we start getting more of the social media influencers involved in politics.

Guaranteed that's coming. That's where I think it's going. Because guaranteed, if the Rock runs for president, guaranteed he would have a solid chance. The Rock? The Rock. Why him? Because he's likable.

Let's say one bad thing about the Rock. I don't want to. I don't want to. Try. Try to try to one critique. Besides, I did not like the movie, that earthquake movie. I did not like it. That's the only bad thing I have to say about the Rock.

He's a likable guy. He is. Yeah, yeah. And he's disciplined. With her daughter? Or his daughter? Pause. What about?

Huh? The earthquake movie? with his daughter. Yeah, yeah. What was that? What was it called? Earthquay? I forget.

It's like some apocalypse movie. I didn't like that movie. San Andreas. Yeah, that's it. San Andreas. It's just, it wasn't his best work. But overall, everyone likes him. Everyone likes it.

It's just a friendly guy. And you would think that if he's, if it, like for international relations and, and just anything he says, I feel like just people would just, people would just like the guy. Income's been plummeting. Has it been? Yeah, man. April's been rough. Like, uh, I don't know, April's just, uh, I don't know if it's the markets or what, but like views are softer. There's less, uh, less, less, there's really less stuff going on. You know, there was so much, I feel like there's so much more drama, uh, over this last year throughout the pandemic. It was much more, There was much more to talk about.

Now I'm like, man, I'm going to have to start going back to Nube versus Pro real estate videos that got like 20,000 views, man. Yeah, I've noticed. I think it's just less interest overall in the markets. I think people are normalized to it. I think they're getting out of the house now. They're not paying attention as much as they are. And when there's not something new happening, like every single day, I feel like they're just losing interest.

But I think, I still think obviously there's going to be that core audience that loves anything to do with the market. but it's certainly not like it, I think, will be or has been over the last year. So I've noticed the same things. Yeah, it certainly doesn't help the market's been trending down. You know, when the market's trending down, I feel like you get people that lose faith in the markets, especially folks who are, you know, look, there are a lot of people who got absolutely burned on GameStop. There are a lot of people who got burned on AMC. There are a lot of the momentum. I mean, there are going to be a lot of people who are burned on on Dogecoin or Safe Moon or.

or whatever, right? There are going to be a lot of these really high hype things that are going to burn a lot of people or even the YOLO options. It's not a good thing that Wall Street bets shows, oh, look at my YOLO bet here that turned into all this money and it was like a two-week call option or something crazy, you know? That's not good because it really, I think people try it. They're like, well, I want my YOLO to. and when that falls apart,

they've gone in too deep, and then that's it. The market's rigged, and they never come back. That's bad. You know, people already think the markets are rigged enough. I personally,

I think I, in the minority on that, I think, I think there are certainly consortiums of things that go on, like when the hedgies all decide to short specs together. I'm sure there's, there's that level of riggedness.

But ultimately, it just, It comes down to the push and pull of everybody trying to make a buck out there. And I think if you can be in your long stock positions, you can make lots of money in the stock market. But a lot of people are going to get burned out of it. I don't know. I think from an attention standpoint, I would just say that there's been a big focus on investing, a big focus on the market. I think that's just been the talk for really the last year.

And I think as we progress out of that, people are just, they're going to get bored. And I think when they see the market trading sideways or they don't see these 20% gains every month, what's the point? Let me go focus on something else. And maybe that will be a self-fulfilling prophecy where enough people get bored of it. And that costs stocks not to do as well in the first place. And then even more people get bored of it. But I think, again, like you said, long term, it's not going to make a huge difference.

And in terms of YouTube, I feel like it's really just the algorithm will part push whatever the, wherever the attention is. And when the intention's on investing, the algorithm's less likely to push it. So that's what I think we're seeing. I wonder if it could be due to the fact that like we've seen a slower or like a little bit of a recovery since that last huge crash that we had, not huge, but like the big crash. I don't know.

What was that like two months ago or whatever? I think like that crash, because I remember your viewership was up like crazy. Oh, yeah. Like during all of that. And that was around the same time as GameStop. Yeah. It was like really exciting, right? Oh, yeah.

And then after the crash, obviously, like, it kind of stayed pretty low for a while. And now since we're making a little bit of recovery back, this is just not nearly as exciting as like either continuing on the trajectory we were at before the crash or the crash itself. You know, like the recovery getting back to where we were is just like terrible. But beforehand, when we were shooting up, that was awesome. I don't know. I think generally when the market is down, viewership is up. Overall, when the market's doing fantastic, I've noticed fewer people are interested in it. Like, it's funny.

No one cares. The market's up 10%. Woohoo. That'll be one fourth of views as the market went down 10%. Here's what just happened. Oh, for sure. Oh, for sure. 100%.

I mean, March was probably one of the best months ever that I had just from all income streams combined and views. Views weren't actually as high as they were in December. But March was a really good month. month in terms of that, but it was also a terrible month in terms of the market. Like, the market was just on fire. And there was so much drama coming out of February like you're talking about. We're coming out of the, you know, the, what's it called? The GameStop momentum trades. And, yeah, March was really, really incredible. And so now it kind of feels like we, it's like we're going to the moon in January, February, February, February. Now, you know, end of Feb, March comes. And it was just like,

like a rocket ship going to the ground in certain sectors. Like, you know, Tesla went to like 530 for a moment, you know, for a hot minute. I mean, like this was a rocket ship going to the ground. People were like, no, don't buy, don't buy. You're going to catch a falling knife. Meanwhile, I'm buying the whole time. I'm like, yep, I'll take some 590s. I'll take some 530.

I'll take some 610s. Like, whatever. I don't care. I'll buy them at 700. Whatever. I'll buy. And this rocket ship's going straight to the ground. That rocket ship going to the ground was, was, I mean, terrible for the most.

market, great for business. And now it kind of feels like the rocket was falling out of the sky a little bit. Now we're doing this kind of like, pshed, psh, it's kind of like we're bouncing around, right? And it's not as engaging. Like, it's not, it's not fun to see the market go up. You know, oh, it just went up 15%. Oh, it just went down 17%. Oh, it just went up 16%.

Like, that's what it has been feeling like, this consolidating. window that we've been in these last four weeks, it's been exhausting, not engaging. It's unique to you where you're kind of hedged either way in terms of your own income, because if the market goes down, you make the money back from YouTube. The market goes up, you might make less on YouTube, but you'll make way more from your investments. I never thought about it that way, but yeah, probably. So how are you planning to diversify in the future? because let's just say

YouTube cuts in half, which I mean would still be fantastic, but how do you intend to continue this? Yeah, probably, I mean, I like what you mentioned earlier, the vlog idea. The vlog idea, though, it would have to be,

it would have to incorporate something. Like, if I could vlog the family and real estate, great, I would love to do that, especially if it involved traveling. Like, say I took advantage of that Texas and Florida, thing. It's like, all right, we're flying down to Texas to buy four homes this weekend. Like, that could be fun, you know, take the kids or whatever and screw around to Texas and go house hunting or whatever. And especially if somebody else was filming and editing it together,

because look, I'm not, I'm not, I would not edit it. No, thank you. I'm so burned out of editing, I just don't even edit anymore. Which is great that we have that opportunity, because, like, we have live stream opportunities or even podcasts. or pretty much like 95% unedited. And so, but yeah, for diversifying, that would be really fun. I would love doing that and just getting out again. There's always going to be news to cover, but it's going to be less stressful. And I'm actually looking forward to that because the last year, it's literally been refresh.

Oh my gosh, there's breaking news. Record the video. as I'm uploading the video oh my gosh there's more breaking news like the last year has been so insane and this is why like sometimes like Kevin how do you do like six videos a day it's like well there's so much freaking stuff to talk about

but when we get into this this normal period of time where it's like okay maybe you have like really exciting news twice a week well I don't have to be sitting here all day anymore I could go do the vlogs and then if something crazy happens I don't need anything fancy

We could just, I mean, you know this, you just take our phone. I could go live on my phone. I can't believe what Jerome Powell just said. A, B, I doubt I would even lose viewers doing that. Just because news doesn't care. News is about information and perspective. So that combined with traveling in real estate,

that would be beautiful. That'd be my dream. That's what I think you should do. I think incorporate that. Maybe taper off towards the end of the year. Do that. Do the vlog idea. Then we can merge vlogs.

Imagine the collapse that we could do between vlog channels. The family meets Kevin. I would, the one thing I would do differently, though, is I would still be doing it on this channel. You wouldn't change it. You wouldn't do a new channel? I just, I don't want to split my attention. You know, I've seen, look, you guys haven't mastered, okay? I think you guys are the exception, though, because I've just, and maybe it's me,

and I'm personally just like identifying this as more frequent than I think it is, but I don't know. But I think most creators, and I could be wrong about this, so it's totally opinion there, but I believe most creators who create other channels end up favoring one. And there's no, look, you guys have a wonderful set schedule. You know, you've got the vlog for one day, you've got the podcast for one day, you've got the three on the main channel, and then what, you got the three or three on the other channel. It's so structured. It's perfect.

It's literally perfect. It's beautiful. But I think most people who don't have that rigid setup end up favoring one channel and the other one gets neglected. Why would I do? I don't want to do that. So for me personally, it makes no difference. I've noticed the same thing. I mean, if I post more, the views go up.

I post less, the views go down. Simple. So may as well just build a plugin. The issue, though, is on a main channel, you're going to get a big portion of your audience not watching a vlog because they have no interest in it. And that is going to hurt the performance of your channel. So by starting a new channel, you're going to get those dedicated 100,000 views that they'll watch anything. And that channel will grow so much faster because of that. Maybe.

And maybe I'm doing something wrong there. I have this belief that when I post the video, YouTube is so smart, the algorithm is so smart, it knows who to show it to. And I don't know if it's just the algorithm learning so quickly. Like, you know, they send out the notifications and batches. So say they send out the notification to 1,000 people at first. And they're like, okay, for some reason, way fewer girls are liking this one. Like, way fewer girls are clicking on this one. And older dudes are clicking on this one.

The next notifications might only go to those older dudes. So I have this weird suspicion that no matter what I post, it'll end up going to the right person. Like the, you know, some of the podcasts I do, there's literally nothing different in my opinion between some of the podcasts. But some of the podcasts that have really, really interesting, broad information, they get 200, 250,000 views. The Kevin O'Leary ones like 600,000 views. Wow. You've got some miscellaneous CEO interviews, really, really niche topic, 50,000 views.

And those could be filmed within a day of each other. So you'd think if there was some kind of punishment, we wouldn't see that. So I don't know if it's just my channel. But I'll throw up a real estate video. All of a sudden, all the comments are people like, oh my gosh, thank you. Finally, a real estate video. Maybe because they're watching more real estate videos.

And YouTube's like, oh, Kevin posted a real estate video because the people who are really liking this are also watching other real estate videos. Let's send it that way. That's just, it's a crazy belief I have. Well, so what are you doing to keep yourself busy? The channel, the channel. All the videos.

That's it. So I should just make more videos. Yeah. I'm trying not to focus on anything other than just making the video. That, that's my only focus right now is just let's get these nine videos out a week. Nine? Eight. Eight videos.

Nine. Eight. I thought it's nine. Eight. No, so we got the millennial money. That takes us from seven to eight. Oh, sure. Plus the family.

Okay. That's a family. That's nine. Okay. That's nine videos. So three on the main channel, three in the second channel. One on the podcast. One on the millennial money.

One on the family. Nine videos. What's millennial money? The, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh. Yeah, yeah. I forgot about that. I didn't know you were counting that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yeah, nine videos. That's my only, that's my only priority right now. That's true. And right now, I'm just, I take it year by year. So I'm like, I just got to keep doing this to the end of the year. That's just, that's, because when I think like five years down the line, I get overwhelmed. We're thinking, I got to be nine videos a week for five years. What?

So I just take it End of the year. That's the next goal post. Keep it going until then. Then reevaluate it. You ever see yourself ratcheting down? Yeah. That's why I want to do the vlog.

My dream one day would be the vlog. You know, has, you know, two million subscribers. It's getting, you know, 500,000 views per video. And we just have fun. And the main channel will never go away.

That's maybe, you know, one video a week or two videos a week. Or a video is needed when there's something really big to talk about or I really want to say something post on there but I think the vlog would just add a different element to it it would be fun then then I could do all the things that I've wanted to do that I can't because of the main channel like going and traveling go and do that for six months I can't do that and keep up this this the momentum right now so I think with the vlog I could still make it

happen could still post amazing content um and get to do all of those things that I've always wanted to do that I haven't because my priority has been the channel. Well, I mean, I have to say, I mean, I echo that. I think that is a, that is the dream right there. Is I think people think, oh, being a YouTuber's a dream. I don't know, man, being stuck in this box, you know, for 12 or 13 hours a day is pretty draining. So, but if, yeah, if you had just, think about like two or three videographers,

videographers filming you and they did all the editing for you. You literally had to do nothing, and it was just a percentage of the revenue. And the revenue you were getting funded your vacations. And now because the vacations or your content, those are tax write-offs too. Now you may as well just go live it up. Frugal Graham turns into yacht gram. Oh, no. No.

But I was watching a tiny house video earlier today. That seemed to me so fun. There was a tiny house that was built on wheels, so you could attach it to a trailer. And it's like 24 feet long, 8 feet wide. This thing looked incredible. I think it would be so fun. Maybe we get two of them. So Jack and Alex could be in the trailer behind the main one.

Or you know what? Alex could be driving. Then I don't know where you. You could be past your seat. Then we got the cat and the dog and Macy and I in the back trailer. And we could be, guys, where do you want to go today? Let's go to Salt Lake City. Let's go.

Let's go to Vegas today. Let's go. Let's drive to Florida. We could do Disney World. Let's go. Something like that, I think, would be, that would be so much fun. But why? Why do you want to drive five, you know, four days or whatever to Florida when you could just rent a jet?

No, because I think the fun is a long way. It's visiting all the places in between. And I think the adventure on the way there is part of the excitement. And even, even the drive from like, subscriber stops. Right. But even the drive from. from like L.A. to Las Vegas. Along the way, I mean, if you drive it all the way, fine.

But along the way, there are a whole bunch of just like a ghost town that's there. What a nothing, too. Bowling. Oh, bowling. Yeah, exactly. Kevin and I went to a bowling spot on the way. I think that was Rancho Cucamonga who did that. Yes.

But I just think on the drive, a lot of fun things can happen on the drive. That's true. That's true. Because, uh, Danny, look at Danny Duncan, man. Yeah. That to me is the dream. Yeah. Right there. Yeah. Because he took

his, he did the road trip across the country too. I think, I don't know. He drove his Tesla from Florida, the L.A. or whatever. And they would just stop in all these random places. Like, oh, it's, that's, that's awesome. But Danny could be anywhere. Danny could be in a room like you. And somehow you would watch 20 minutes of him doing something. He would find a way to make wherever he is a good time.

Yeah, that's true. Because think of it. He never relies. He never relies on something happening. He is always the one who makes stuff happen. It's all, it's, it's, it's, it's like, his, his, his world revolves around him and his personality and what he's doing in the moment. So he could always come up with content because it's just, as long as he's, as long as he's

breathing, I mean, he'll find a way to make it entertaining. It's true. I mean, I, uh, I visited him in Florida. And I remember we were at this, uh, Asian food, uh, a restaurant. I don't know, I had some fried rice or whatever. I don't know why this detail matters anyway. But he says, you know what? We need to buy a used van like right now.

And it just starts calling to get used vans. Like, wait, why? He's like, we're going to crash it. We're going to F it up. That's like, where did that idea ever come from? Did he put it in video or is this stuff that like he just wanted to do on his own? You know, he's just, he's done multiple videos since. then of him crashing cars and putting cars in a tree and then they did fireworks and then they shot

the fireworks into the tree. The two days after I left, they had the fire department at his, like, you know, six acre or 10 acre or whatever, a lot. And I don't know, they caught something on fire. It's just like there literally is always something going. So that's what I wanted to do. Not necessarily putting cars and trees, but just maybe just a fun, lighthearted, family friendly. just a good old vlog.

A realistic vlog. Aren't you worried though that there's a longevity risk? Because I mean, think about it. You know, if a lot of the vlog channels, they come and go with the subscribers, but news, you know, Jim Kramer's still around. I, yes, I would agree with that. But I think a lot of it's too new

to really know how much longevity there is. I think the vlog channels where they're doing all the work themselves or they're filming every day, that's why I see the worry. Like Roman Atwood was doing a video. I think it was like five videos a week or something like that. Did that for like three, four years.

So I'm sure that could be taxing. Or the Casey Nistat doing it all himself. But I think the occasional vlog maybe once a week, I think he could keep that going for longer. And we'll see just how much longevity there is. Even with news on YouTube, who's to say there's not going to be, you know, a younger meet Kevin out there who do,

who does a little more funny, who's a little, you know, has a bigger beard, who has a higher quality camera. Who knows? Who knows? Congratulations, Kevin. Let's make this video have more views than the first one.

Let's do that. More views than the first time. Well, um, okay, how do we do that? Let's see. I did in, in March,

at least double, uh, the highest month revenue I had before. So maybe there's a thumbnail for you. All right. What is it? $2 million. It was over two.

Holy crap. Wow. Where is it coming from? Gosh. Like if you were to divide it. Literally it's a combination of everything because when there's so much, so much drama in the markets, everything does better. Because it's like even the life insurance, which I saw you guys were doing life insurance too. Like even the life insurance.

What? Seriously, like it's everything. Wow. But, no, this month will be like the opposite. This month will be... Negative two. Negative two, yeah, yeah, exactly. No, 600, something like that. Which is amazing.

But you're not even... But you're not even counting stocks. Like, if you counted income plus stocks, God. That's her title, man. Three million dollars a month. Two million, two something. Two million. Listen, here's the thing.

You can't put two point two. It's got to be one. two, three, four. It's got to be an even number. And then the next time, hopefully we can grow it again. Oh, my gosh. Let's get it to four. Gosh. Okay. Well, we got a lot. There are diminished. Like, I think this last year was an anomaly, though. So I realized that. I mean, this last year was insane. You know, there are a few months that I've been insane. But I don't know how sustainable. Well, I think high numbers like that aren't sustainable. But I do think numbers.

around like this month are more more sustainable, which is kind of like from the CNBC millennial money. I'm breakdown. Congratulations. Thanks, man. Before we end, you got to tell everyone to destroy the like button, subscribe, do the usual. Folks, I have got to ask you one thing.

We've been together for almost two hours here, maybe even a little bit over two hours. Do me favor. A little button down there, destroy that like button, share the video, like the video, subscribe, get it done. doing now so with that said you guys thank you so much for watching i really appreciate it kevin thank you so much for coming on today this has been so much fun i love these things i'll link to your information down below in the description where you could also get a free stock from public worth

all the way up to fifty dollars you may as well get it all of our instagrams are down below in the description and also make sure to subscribe to the step family we post one video a week it's one really good video it's so good that we we basically pack the best content in a given in 12 minutes or less. It's insane. So subscribe to that channel down below. You'll be one of the first subscribers to that channel. So enjoy.

Thank you guys so much for watching. And until next time. Fifty-first ever. So welcome. You're doing the leg thing. Sorry. Welcome back to the ever. Is that part of it?

Yeah. Fifty-first ever episode of the iced coffee hour. My name is Kevin. So far the podcast is made blank. Sweet. All right. Here we go. Goff.