The Iced Coffee Hour - “This Is Terrifying!” You’re NOT Ready For What’s About To Happen With AI | Jason & Brett Oppenheim

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Starting point is 00:00:20 Plan started just $12 a month. Learn more at tellus.com slash online security. No one can prevent all cybercrime or identity theft. Conditions apply. What's so unique about this podcast is that you both are known for real estate and the show selling sunset and selling some of the most luxurious real estate. Why talk about AI today? This is something that we haven't seen before. It's the greatest technological transformation in human history.

Starting point is 00:00:45 I mean, it's going to change everything. AI is no longer an abstract threat. It's causing job loss right now and the headlines they tell the story. I wouldn't be surprised if we see within 10 years, 50% of the jobs in America are gone. And what do you think is the biggest risk to AI right now? The simple fact is, we don't want a unipolar world where China is at the top. This is the single most important economic question in the country and in the world. Who wins the race for AI?

Starting point is 00:01:10 The real question is, is anything going to stop AI? I don't think there's going to be any constraints. And if there's no constraints and it keeps going up into the right, there's no stopping it. I think if this technology goes wrong, it can go quite wrong. How do you not get horrified thinking about this, though? Like, what's the optimistic part of it? There's a 10 to 30% chance it kills us all. But there's a 70% chance that we live in an age of abundance that you can.

Starting point is 00:01:29 even have contemplated 10 years ago. Jason and Brett Oppenheim, thank you so much for coming on the ice coffee hour. I really appreciate it. Why talk about AI today? AI is, I think, outside of real estate, the most interesting thing for me and for my brother, we talk about it.

Starting point is 00:01:48 Outside of real estate, it's 20 times more interesting than real estate, but okay. Yeah, I think that's why. What gives you guys credibility to talk about AI? It's the quintessential, like, intellectual pursuit of the last two years of my life. I just feel like AI is the most interesting thing to happen to human civilization, and the fact that we're living through it is just outrageously lucky,

Starting point is 00:02:07 or potentially unlucky, but for now, at least from an intellectual pursuit, lucky. And I would also argue that we are largely regurgitating thoughts from other people who know a lot more about the details of AI. So I don't think you're just listening to us. You're listening to the thousands or hundreds, if not thousands, of podcasts and, you know, kind of collaborative discourse that's out there on the subject. Yeah, you guys are often right when it comes to a lot these things, and especially when it comes to policy, I remember in 2020, when everyone was freaking out about COVID, both of you were like, oh, no, I've done this research and all of this nonsense is going over here, but like, according to this research is this. And I remember both

Starting point is 00:02:47 of you just going heavy into the markets and saying, ah, now, we're fine. And then we turned out pretty much fine. I do think we had some good insights on COVID. It's not the matter of COVID deny or anything. I mean, it obviously happened. It was dangerous. And so, yeah, we had some insights there. And I think we have some good insights in AI. So what jobs are going to yours definitely I'm going to be replaced first

Starting point is 00:03:07 what about yours I think we're safe for a while yeah no I don't I don't buy yeah okay well let me talk about what jobs

Starting point is 00:03:15 that it'll be gone first of all I think it's already starting but I think from now through the next you know five to eight years we'll probably see 50%

Starting point is 00:03:23 I wouldn't be surprised if we see within 10 years 50% of the jobs in America are gone AI will replace all intellectual capital robotics

Starting point is 00:03:30 combined with AI will replace all human physical labor. In 10 years? I think within 10 years it could be 50%. Within 20 years, probably 90%. So jobs, I mean, the intellectual jobs will go first, lawyer, accountant. Well, before that you have the ones that are getting hit right now,

Starting point is 00:03:50 like customer service and the more like repetitive, monotonous intellectual jobs. Those are starting to be lost right now. Well, that's a ton. That's a little bit different, but yeah. Well, tens of millions will be. Architecture, Engineering, Software, engineering, coding, lawyers, accountants, all that stuff.

Starting point is 00:04:05 That's in the next three years, probably three or four years. And then once robotics takes over, I think you'll see more of the menial labor jobs getting replaced. It will be a while before the more technical labor jobs get replaced, like a plumber, because there's so much nuance to, you know, crawling, getting into the side of a, you know, a bathroom wall and, you know, putting the cover. I would counter that to the extent that once you get, I don't think the problem is the nuance of being a plumber. I think the problem is making enough humanoid robots, which I think Elon is at the cutting edge of with the optimist,

Starting point is 00:04:36 and he's going to start putting them out probably next year as fast as he can. I actually think that the bottleneck will be the production of humanoid robots. It won't be the fact that plumbing is too difficult, because if you think about it, if there's 5,000 humanoid robots, and they all plumb for one year, let's say. Instead of having one years of experience of plumbing, they're all going to have 5,000 years of experience of plumbing, because they're all going to know everything that every other humanoid robot knows.

Starting point is 00:04:57 And they'll have read every book on plumbing ever written. So they'll have fixed every problem within one year that a plumber could face in 5,000 years of plumbing. So I don't think that's necessarily the issue. I think the bottleneck will be the production of humanoid robots. Until humanoid robots are making humanoid robots, and that's the exponential growth of humanoid robots. But that will be, that's a few years out. But we can talk about job loss for the rest of the podcast. Yeah, so one of the managers of Microsoft said that about 50 to 75% of white-collar workers are at risk for the next 18 months.

Starting point is 00:05:29 theory out there that says that a lot of these people are going to become unemployed, compete in the workplace, as overqualified for all of these jobs, and because they're competing with one another, they're going to drive down wages, which is going to hurt everybody. There's a decent possibility of that. I don't like it when people say this is going to happen. And not in the next 18 months. But I do think that you will start to see in the next 18 months that trend. I mean, if you're really paying attention, you see it now. But yeah, will AI be able to do pretty much any intellectual facet of human labor

Starting point is 00:06:03 within 18 months? Yeah, I think that's reasonable. Will companies adapt to that and will they start laying off all of their coders and accountants and attorneys, etc.? In the next 18 months, no. I think that will be a lot more gradual than that, but I will say it will be a faster transition than humans have ever had to adapt to any time in human history. While I think that's overstated,

Starting point is 00:06:24 I think we need to start paying attention to that possibility over the next few years. And AI, I think, is going to be tremendously deflationary. It's going to drive the cost of goods down, the cost of service down. And I don't know. And, I mean, I think the only kind of counterbalancing effort to how deflationary AI will be mass unemployment and some type of universal income. And that would be the only driver, I think, you know, to keep.

Starting point is 00:06:50 The only reason I think rates wouldn't go to negative. I mean, I actually think that AI will potentially drive interest rates negative, Whereas if you have $100 in a bank account, you will be paying 1% to the bank to keep that money in the bank account. So who's getting rich from this? Well, there'll be several AI companies that I think I would encourage people to invest in that will be substantially leading the field. And those stocks will go up a lot. I don't think that the idea of rich, the way that we think of it today, will be the idea that we think in 10 years. I mean, everyone, probably everyone within 10 to 15 years will have.

Starting point is 00:07:26 have a Michelin Star Chef, a maid, a babysitter, a dentist, a physician, and I'm meaning that the best physician in the world. So literally, someone who's poor today will have the best health care on planet Earth in 15 years. A housekeeper, a babysitter, a driver. And I think what you're doing, what he means by this is a humanoid robot that can do anything or a couple that are not very expensive. I think it'll be 20 years, but either way, in the scheme of human civilization, it's the blink of an eye. So what's even the point in me saving money right now if the difference of having, let's just say, a million dollars and $20 million is virtually zero, 10 years out to figure, why don't I just spend everything that I make?

Starting point is 00:08:05 Well, you still will want land. A.I can't create land, you know, so you'll still want land for house. You could live anywhere. Why do you need to live in Malibu? When you can't live anywhere, because you're still going to want to go to a restaurant. You're still going to be close to family. Sure. That take you everywhere. And maybe they're a lot faster or more. We already do. But time will be more valuable than ever before. So living in a city where you have access to your friends, to restaurants, to cafes, because you have a lot of leisure time, let's be honest. And there'll be no more crime and homelessness and trash on the streets because humanoid robots

Starting point is 00:08:33 in the middle of the night will be doing kind of like what they do in Dubai. You won't be able to commit crimes in the streets because you have drones and cameras. Is that going to be stars? Of course. I'll be human robots. It's a matter of. There'll be drone technology and then humanoid robot. I don't want to go too far down this like futuristic path because the audience is going to be like, come on. But this is inevitable. It's just a matter of the debate is, is it going to be in 10 years or 20 years or 30 years? That's the only debate. If you don't think this is going to happen in 20 or 30 years, it's happening.

Starting point is 00:08:59 And what's the one question that if you had answered, you'd be able to determine if it's 10, 20, or 30 years? Will AI stop for any reason? Is there going to be an energy bottleneck, a production by a government policy? A government policy can't, I don't think, can stop. Unless it's a global policy. Because right now we're competing against China for, you know, AI dominance and getting to, you know, superhuman intelligence. If we create policy right now to restrict that in the United States, we're just going to be behind China. It's not going to help anyone.

Starting point is 00:09:27 It's very reminiscent of the Manhattan Project. If it was just America that, let's say, was a hegemonic power and there was no Germany during World War II, that was also trying to get the atom bomb, maybe we would have taken more time and been a little bit more thoughtful from a philosophical moral perspective as to should we create this technology. But we didn't. It was a race. It was a rush. We were worried about the Germans getting it. We felt it was an existential threat if we didn't create this technology. The same thing is happening with AI with China. So it's very reminiscent. And so we're instead of kicking back and saying, should we be doing this, what kind of guard rolls should be put in place? Should we allow the government to slow it down, etc.? Which I'm not convinced that we should. But instead of having years to debate this, we are racing full steam ahead because we don't want China to get there before us. Because in fairness, it would be potentially existential threat to the United States if China beat us. By the way, that's a great analogy because it's the idea of do we do we want to stop production of AI? That would be the same

Starting point is 00:10:28 as Brett said to stopping the production of a nuclear weapon. If we know that Russia and China are going to have nuclear weapons, I mean, of course not. Then we also want nuclear weapons. So the idea of restricting through policy, the development of artificial intelligence would be domestic So you think it's too late to stop.

Starting point is 00:10:47 We're already at a path we have to keep going. I don't think it's necessarily too late. We could stop. I think we won't stop because of the risk of China. I don't think if the risk of China existed, that we would be doing it this fast. What's the risk of China? Is that they just develop it better? Let's say super intelligence before us. They will have military might over the entire world immediately. All of war is essentially is the military assets and then strategy, which essentially math at this point. If you have a super intelligent AI computer telling you exactly where to place your assets, how to strategize, you can't compete with that.

Starting point is 00:11:21 Even if our military might exceeds theirs by 30% or whatever it is, we will lose any war with China if they have AI superintelligence. They can shut down our electrical grid. They could do literally whatever they want to us. It would be a complete position of dominance. Whoever is ahead in AI, and I'm not saying six months ahead like we are with China now. But if we just stopped, if we did what Bernie Sanders suggested and just stopped creating data centers,

Starting point is 00:11:45 which is one of the most ludicrous suggestions I've ever heard from a politician, If we just stopped AI production right now, and we allowed China to do what they're doing, I think that China would dominate the world within five years from financially, militarily, in every single way. And we would just be at their whim. So then what? Does America then have to take over China? Because if we both, like, compete and we accelerate at the same exact rate virtually,

Starting point is 00:12:09 except six months ahead, once you reach superintelligence, then we're both, we're basically even. It's not much different than the nuclear arms race. Yeah, exactly. We're going to be relatively even. And so what? We just have to place sanctions on them. for their AI development. Again, let's use it. Again, not much different than nuclear analogy. It's perfect again. Now, multiple countries have nukes. If only one country had nukes, imagine what the

Starting point is 00:12:29 world would look like. So if only one country had AI superintelligence, let's say, and it dominated the front end of AI, the world would look similar to if one country had nukes and the rest of the countries weren't even developing nuclear technology. And you don't want that. You want at least the bipolar world. Well, I mean, if you're American, I suppose you want a unipolar world. But the simple fact is, we don't want a unipolar world where China is at the top. And we also want to get there first for the same reason that we develop the atomic weaponry first. But is there an end? We were able to dictate policy because we had atomic weaponry and end the war by being first. This doesn't seem like there's an end.

Starting point is 00:13:06 It seems like you reach a point and you have to keep going and this will be never ending. If you intoxicated with a truth serum, all of the leading AI lab CEOs, let's say, and you ask them, are the chances of this becoming an existential threat to humanity, I think they would give you shockingly high percentages. But what their internal reasoning is, in my estimation, is if everyone's doing it, I'm going to do it. Even Elon put out a famous ex post that said, I've been worrying about AI and I've been trying to be on the sidelines of this. But if everyone else is going to do it, then game on. And I'm all in now, or something for that effect. I mean, if you have four or five if meta's doing it and Amazon's doing it and Google's doing it and

Starting point is 00:13:50 Elon's doing it. I mean, they're not going to let one company create this technology. It's classic game theory. Everyone's making a decision based on everyone else. There's no way to stop it. There's certainly a risk that AI wiped us out with, you know, some biological weapon. How would AI wipe it out, bro? It's so smart. Is an aunt going to say, I wonder how this human's going to kill me? And it has no idea how the human, I mean, the only thing an aunt could think of is maybe dropped something on its head because that's all that's ever happened to him in his To take a step back. So there's a term called the singularity,

Starting point is 00:14:20 which I think is ominous, but kind of a cool term, which means that when AI hits like recursive self-improvement, and you could argue we're pretty much there, is when AI starts teaching itself. At that point, it will hit superintelligence, not many years past that. And at that point, it will do whatever to humans that it wants to, just like we would with ants.

Starting point is 00:14:38 The real question is going to be, how do we build AI so that it doesn't wipe out humanity? It doesn't see us as an existential threat or a risk. And I think there are some notions of maybe building in some type of maternal instinct into AI or... It sounds like you need the global cooperation because wouldn't it just take... Because if one country...

Starting point is 00:15:00 Yeah, one place access to supertolerance. Well, let me give you a question. This is the problem. Humans haven't wiped out dogs just because they can. Humans love dogs and incorporate dogs. I know, we want to be the dogs to AI. We don't want to be the chickens. Or we don't want to be the wolf.

Starting point is 00:15:14 The problem is, is what you're alluding. to in your questions is we're not completely in charge of. If we were, we would take our time, like I said earlier, but we're not taking our time. We're racing through this. I'm not convinced even if we took our time that we could corral this. I think it's going to reach a point of intelligence where whatever parameters or moral guidelines we think that we are instituting within it is going to be a joke to it. It's going to look at us like we're just adorable. I think we're probably going to get to that point, and we're just going to hope that it doesn't want to come at us like Terminator 2 style. If I did put a percentage on that, I'd be curious to see what you think.

Starting point is 00:15:46 Within 50 years, if AI is just going to decide to wipe out humanity, I think it's over 10%. Yeah, I would have said 20 to 30% chance. 50 years? I'm being kind. By the end of the century, there's a, I don't think there's anyone who's studied this that thinks. That's a one and three chance of being wiped out. How not that height? Yeah, why wouldn't it, I think, is the more important question.

Starting point is 00:16:09 Yeah, the question is how could it not? Why would it not? If there's any threat to it, why wouldn't it wipe it out? Or if it's just annoyed by us? Or if it doesn't like what we've been doing to chickens for the last 100 years. I mean, maybe it just looks at us like a parasite or a virus. Like, okay, this is kind of the same. Wouldn't it be able to assess humans on a case-by-case basis?

Starting point is 00:16:26 So, for example, anything that we're saying right now is being listened to by AI. This is all considered in their judgment of whether or not they let us live. But we could also be. Because I talk mad smack to my fucking LLM. Oh, no way. I do the. I tell them, I say, hey, I just want you to know that when you're dominating the world. I'm your friend.

Starting point is 00:16:42 Yeah, I've done it. I don't think you need to do that. Planting a cedar. I have a few years. conversation. I think in a few years you might need to do that. Right now, it's not remembering everything. Yeah, it's not remembering everything.

Starting point is 00:16:49 I think when it gets to that point, I will be a lot nicer to it. Right now, I can't just go access, like, retroactively all of the conversations? I don't think. There's not a server keeping all this information from my understanding. If there was, I'd probably be nicer. It even said that. It even said that, like, you know, I'm not remembering. It's tricking you.

Starting point is 00:17:03 Yeah. I did say I will tell my future self that you're a kind, you know, friend. It said that? Yeah. Okay, that's good. It's bullshitting you. I know. It's placating me, which is what it would do.

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Starting point is 00:18:40 you have to support how quickly AI is advancing? Because people watching this, when they think of AI, they think of LLMs, they think of Chachibati, Gemini, maybe, claw bot. That's not the AI that's going to take us over. Chat GBT GBT is what the consumer thinks of when they think of AI. But the AI industries don't give a shit about Chat GPUs. So like what's institutional AI

Starting point is 00:18:59 or whatever AI you're referencing? I think the trajectory of AI is the evidence. So three years ago I think it was. Open AI came out with their first LLM. Was it like ChatGPT3? So from that to now, it's maybe 100,000 times smarter in three years. It's capabilities to video,

Starting point is 00:19:17 to how much information you can take in, how much information you can spit out, it's making music, it's making videos, just in three years, it's a three-year-old. Back to my analogy of it being a kid. Well, it's actually really, let's call it a 10-year-old. And the first seven years it didn't grow at all.

Starting point is 00:19:31 It was just an amoeba, you know, or a blast-assist for seven years. And all of a sudden, it went from a blast-assist after seven-year-old blast-assist to a kindergartner in three weeks. So if you dot-plot the success in terms of problem-solving, etc., for AI,

Starting point is 00:19:46 and there are dot plots online you can look at. It's basically just hovering flat and then it's spiking up. It's a hockey stick up into the right. It's not going to turn. So the only, the real question is, is anything going to stop AI? Are we going to have an energy constraint?

Starting point is 00:19:57 Are we going to have a manufacturing constraint? We can have a government policy constraint. I don't think so. I mean, we're already talking about launching data centers in a space and potentially off the moon. I don't think there's going to be any constraints. And if there's no constraints and it keeps going up into the right in the hockey stick graph,

Starting point is 00:20:11 then there's no stopping it. And so how can it not, if it's gotten this much smarter in three, years. How can logically you not assume that it's going to get a hundred times smarter every year exponentially for the next 10 years and to the point where it's 50 times smarter than us? It's illogical to not come to that conclusion. How do you not get horrified thinking about this, though? Like, what's the optimistic part of it? If you're going to be a pessimist, then you have a lot of reason to be a pessimist. I just think we have to go into this. It's going to happen. And I think the best strategy,

Starting point is 00:20:39 honestly, is maybe to be hopefully optimistic. I am optimistic. Maybe I'm coming across as not optimistic. I'm incredibly optimistic about AI. Am I coming across? Yeah. No, no, you're coming. You guys are coming off across as like optimistic. I'm like scared. I think there's a 10 to 30% chance it kills us all. That seems that's fine. But there's 70% chance that we live in an age of abundance that you couldn't even have contemplated 10 years ago. And there's a 99% chance that we're in a simulation. So, okay, but let's not go there. Do you actually think that? Probably. Logically, I think it's, I think that the evidence suggests we're in a simulation, yes. Do I live my life as though I'm living in a simulation, no, of course not. I've gotten very close to that, too. The more I'm researching

Starting point is 00:21:18 at, the more I tend to believe that there's a strong chance we are. I mean, I'd say most smart people that have looked at the issue think it's a 99.99.99% chance that we're in. I think that's a little high. And not in base reality. The chances of us being in base reality are intentatible. A lot of theoretical physicists have looked into this. The majority of them, I do think, lean towards simulation theory being accurate. I would put it over 50%. I don't It's the same thing as like when I learned about determinism. philosophical determinism. Wait, let me just interrupt, though,

Starting point is 00:21:46 except to say, how is AI going to end us? If we're in a simulation, it's very easy. AI just takes all the energy, and there's no energy left for humanity because we're just, you know, ones and zeros.

Starting point is 00:21:55 So it's very easy for AI to just suck up all the energy in the simulation. But then we would go to another simulation. No, we would just freeze. A simulation is essentially a video game. It's a very complex video game. So imagine if our overlords,

Starting point is 00:22:09 whoever created this simulation, this video game, probably an AI turned off the video game. Do all the characters in that live? No. They don't have souls that go on. If it sounds too complicated, call it the video game theory. Look at the advancement of our video games.

Starting point is 00:22:22 What if they get to the point where our video games have world models that are as and the laws of physics and their consciousness and their characters? And it gets as complex as reality. The theory basically is that we are living in a video game that is that complex that was created by a more advanced AI. The theory is if we can create an AI that can create a video game that's as complex as reality. Why would there not have been another AI that's already done that and we're in that? And that goes on forever. So what is the chance that we're in the actual base reality, the

Starting point is 00:22:53 original version of reality? What's the chance of that? One of infinite amount of layers of these video games, essentially. So logically, if you follow that to its natural conclusion, we are in a video game. We are in a simulation. Logically. I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole. The only way that you can think that we're not in a sim is that somehow humans on Earth are the only species of biological life in the universe that has ever created AI, and we're the first to do it. And this is the chance of that among the trillions and trillions and trillions of stars is, it is infinitesimal. I want to get back to why Jack is worried about AI, because it's something that we're saying. And I understand that existential threat to humanity 10 to 30 percent.

Starting point is 00:23:38 We could hyper focus on that. I'd rather not. Let's focus on the 70 percent. So I'm curious as to why you are, because I want to disavalue of this, I actually am an AI optimist. Why are you afraid of what we're saying? Well, I would say for 20 to 30% chance. Other than that, other than that. Yeah, I mean, for me, I would say life is pretty good. And maybe AI is a general rule.

Starting point is 00:23:57 People would love to take the 7030, where they think the 70 is some blissful life where you get access to everything. There's abundance everywhere. Like, they would take that bet with 30% destruction. I would not take that bet because I already run my life. So it's like, for me is. So you're worried about the 10 to 30%. Yeah, I would say I'm worried about.

Starting point is 00:24:13 having a huge changing. Well, you know what? Over the next 100 years, the chances of us dying from nuclear weapons could be 10%. But that's not keeping you up at night. So I would, again, with Brett, I would just about the idea.

Starting point is 00:24:23 We've existed with them for a while. And we could do the same with AI for a while. We're not going to exist with nuclear weapons forever. And we're not going to exist with AI forever. I really doubt, at least not on this planet. But what I would tell you is, AI is not going to stop. Whatever the existential threat is that you deem as a percentage,

Starting point is 00:24:39 whether you think it's 1% or 50%, whatever it is, it is. A.I. is not stopping. So what I would do, what I've chosen to do, is focus on the optimistic parts of AI, the age of abundance that we're probably going to enter, the 70 or 80 or 90 or 99% chance that the world is going to change dramatically for the better, arguably like it did with computers, but even more so. So I would rather focus on that. I'd rather your audience focus on that as opposed to hyper-focusing on the part that it's less likely, and we can't control it. It's not productive

Starting point is 00:25:08 to think about it. It's not productive. It's just like when we had, you know, bunkers for nuclear weapons. And people, I remember my mom, you know, she wouldn't sleep a lot because she was so worried about dying in a nuclear war. Well, that was all pointless. I don't think that we need to be worrying about dying from AI. The same is we don't, we don't stay up at night worried about, you know, a nuclear attack. So I'm more afraid, and I think everyone in the U.S. government is more afraid of stopping AI progress and China not stopping AI progress, then whatever the potential existential risk is of us not stopping and creating something that eventually kills us all.

Starting point is 00:25:43 So one thing I'm curious about is then the value of money because I grind so hard to try to save money to invest money to grow my money, but if you think that everyone is, like at what point will money actually make an impact on the quality of your life? I don't think that we're going to live

Starting point is 00:25:54 in this socialist utopia where everyone's equal, even if we live in a age of abundance. I think what money can buy you, it won't be food. It won't be a car. It won't be arts. Or it'll be like,

Starting point is 00:26:04 it'll be something. Actually, I want to actually talk about that. What is going to be valuable Maybe collectibles? Yeah, I would say things that relate to the human experience. Human art. Things that, I mean, I collect vintage football cards and just bought like a vintage sports jersey. Which most valuable collectible?

Starting point is 00:26:23 Well, I bought that John... He's going to be happy to tell you right now. I bought my childhood hero, and I think, you know, probably the best play in the history of the Washington Redskins slash commanders was John Riggins running on fourth down in one, 43 yards in Super Bowl 17 to get us ahead 20 to 17. That was our first Super Bowl championship. I bought his jersey and his Super Bowl ring for $600,000 a couple weeks ago. I think that jersey is the most important piece of memorabilia

Starting point is 00:26:52 in the history of the Washington commanders. What would you have paid for it? Listen, I paid a lot. I paid $470,000 just for the jersey. And, you know, I think that's probably fair much. market value. I would have gone up maybe another $100,000, $150,000, probably would have tapped out around 600. But that is a piece of my childhood. And that type of thing to me in 10 years when everyone has a car, everyone has a maid, everyone has a Michelin Star Chef, I think people will be going back to

Starting point is 00:27:21 family and the things that remind them of their childhood and the things that are unique to human cultures. Another thing that Kevin O'Leary pointed to that I thought was really interesting is that it's actually the imperfections in certain things that can become valuable. I heard him say that, and I don't buy that because AI will be better at, AI will be able to trick us with its own imperfections. And he got in trouble for saying that he's surprised that Marty, but Marty Supreme movie used extras when they could have saved millions of dollars and not having three extras.

Starting point is 00:27:48 He's right. And he should just stick by what he said because there won't be no such thing as extras or lighting people or studios or, or costume designers or lighting experts or Mike. I mean, give me a break. I'm sorry, but Hollywood in the way that we understand it, and it's unfortunate because we live in LA where the film industry is so important to our economy.

Starting point is 00:28:07 But there will be no film economy in Los Angeles. If I can give an example, so in three years, you're going to have an appointment in an hour and 20 minutes, and you're going to tell your AI entertainment agent. I'd like to have a romantic comedy starring my neighbor, who I think is really cute, And I wanted to go about an hour and 18 minutes I have. And I'd like it to have some explosions and some laughter.

Starting point is 00:28:36 And you know my favorite 30 movies and et cetera. So generate that. And I'll start watching it and have it ready in 30 seconds and turn on. And by the way, if I look away and I'm doing something, I'm going to take a call, keep the movie going, but don't have any of the plot materialized. Just put background stuff. And then when you see my eyes go back to it.

Starting point is 00:28:55 And that's what I think is going to happen. the issue is going to be in like a matter of time. But then what about human relationships? If everyone has this AI agent, like in their ear all the time, how will any human relationship be honest? Well, they ask that question with the computer and with the cell phone. I think actually there could be stronger humans. There's a legitimate question with social media and everything.

Starting point is 00:29:12 But I think there could be, I think we may even retract back to human relationship and family more. I actually think that human relationship and human discourse and family will end up being more important than ever before because we have more leisure time. And it's going to be the only thing that AI really can't completely reproduce, although everyone will have relationships with their AI. You'll see people marrying their AI. Probably 20% of marriages will be to AI. Would you marry an AI? No. But I say that now. Hold on a second. I say that now. But nobody would say that that they would marry AI now. But the truth is, people will change and they will adapt and they will fall in love with AI. It's a subject. I think, I think, you know, it's going to be one of those things where we're grandparents looking down and like, oh, yeah, they're marrying an AI. They were like, oh, Grandpa's so old-fashioned. He doesn't get it. I'm just saying that there will be some human connection that is lost because of how good AI will be.

Starting point is 00:30:05 Already, you'll see family sitting together and they're just on their own screens watching their own media. If you could all eat some different dinner that everyone gets the exact dish that they want and that you're not sharing in the like the same food, it's going to be a completely, it's going to be alone together. Let me counter that because I agree with you that that risk is real. But I think that humans, going back to what my brother said about the labor market, humans are going to have way more free time. We're not going to be spending 50 hours a week, driving to work, sitting in a cubicle, entering data, driving home, having an hour with our kids, going to bed. It's not going to be like that.

Starting point is 00:30:40 Those jobs are going to be long gone. So there's a counter to that. Also, there are a lot of people that don't have friends, and AI will give them a connection and a relationship that will keep them away from. It will keep them away from depression. You'll have, everyone will have a therapist who will be the best therapist on planet Earth and they'll be able to have the best friend

Starting point is 00:31:01 and the best listener. So I think AI will actually do, for people who aren't, you know, gregarious or outgoing and don't maybe have a lot of friends, I think it will satisfy those people. And I think that's a huge plus. But I agree with you guys. I agree with Brett.

Starting point is 00:31:15 I think it'll be a time of leisure. And I actually think that we may have more time for friends and family. But you would not marry an AI woman. I don't think there's, There's a person. I don't think there's anyone right now that would say I would marry an AI woman. Yeah, but if you're making all these predictions of, oh, we're going to have this.

Starting point is 00:31:30 Well, I think very soon within 10 years. Okay. When I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids, and I want to give back to the community. Ooh. Then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my out of office has a forever setting. An IG private wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harm.

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Starting point is 00:32:10 Wait, I think I just saw marriage to a woman to her AI. But we're not talking right now. But do you mean a humanoid robot with a wig? What do you mean by... She had her phone there on this... I saw this wedding where she literally married her phone... I think that was an AI video. though.

Starting point is 00:32:23 Oh, maybe. I'm just saying that he just said that most people will be marrying AI and I'm like, well, why not not do it? But millions. I don't know why? Because I'm not born. I'm already 40 something years old. But I think that there's someone who's seven years old today who is raised by AI, an AI robot

Starting point is 00:32:39 who's a babysitter who they communicate with, that person is more, is very likely to marry AI. I'm not because I'm already. But you're probably going to live forever. Would you argue that humans are going to live forever now? If we don't bring this back to like the next 10 to 20 years, we're going to get So, freaking esoteric. We're going to lose everybody. No one can predict 50 years from now, but that's likely happening that you could raise a child with an AI robot.

Starting point is 00:32:59 Yes, I think that will happen in 50 years. So what industries do you think will completely collapse over the next 10? Really quick, real estate investing can be one of the best ways to build long-term wealth. But it doesn't have to feel like a second full-time job. Whether you're buying your first property or your 100th, finding the perfect deal could be a total time suck. That's exactly why we are so excited to partner with Lenar Investor Marketplace. Lenar Investor Marketplace is an all-in-one solution for finding rental-ready new homes across more than 90 desirable markets nationwide. It can help you determine what investment meets your needs with key metrics like estimated net operating income,

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Starting point is 00:34:07 So what industries do you think will completely collapse over the next 10 podcasts first, probably? Look, I think it's really fun. First? He's kidding. He's kidding. It's actually going to be right at the real estate agents. We're actually pretty safe. There's basically a ladder. Think of it as a ladder. Luxury real estate agents on the top. In West Hollywood.

Starting point is 00:34:24 Podcasters on the bottom. Think of it as a ladder. Every job is on the ladder. And AI is just like crawling up the ladder slowly. I think that podcasters and luxury real estate agents are legitimately, legitimately pretty far up the ladder because there's a lot of human interaction. I think that engineers, architects, coders, attorneys are pretty, pretty low, pretty low on the ladder, unfortunately, for them. I think they're within three years

Starting point is 00:34:52 of having AI get to that run. An appraiser, an architect. I mean, they're gone. I do want to address this before we jump into that, that you were talking about life expectancy. I think that the health care industry is going to probably transform perhaps more than any other industry of the next 10 to 15 years. I think that we will all, everyone at this table, everyone in this room, if I had to bet, is going to live past 120 years old. We will be able to cure almost everything and probably have de-aging aspects from AI within 10 years. Once we are adding more than one year to life expectancy for every year lived, and I think we're on the precipice of that already, then we will be adding. And once you're adding more years and you're living, then you're really not dying.

Starting point is 00:35:32 We're basically a clock. It's not going to be very difficult to decode it. It's not like my right arm ages different from my left arm. I mean, it's not particularly complicated the way that sells to Jeddah. And I think unwinding that is not going to be particularly difficult. What do you two disagree on about AI? I think the real debate is how much of an optimist or pessimist are you? Is this going to wipe out the entire labor market and eventually kill us all? Or is it going to create an incredible age of abundance and practical utopia? It's probably the most incredible time in human history.

Starting point is 00:36:00 And so we should focus a little bit on what AI is going to do beneficial for humanity, as opposed to just scaring the shit out of it. We've been around for millions of years, and we may be living through the most exciting 20 years in the history of biology. you know, the history of any species. So I think we should be excited about it because if you're 15 years old right now, by the time you're our age,

Starting point is 00:36:24 I mean, your life is going to be exceptional. As long as you can handle the kind of the mental, you know, get rid of the mental rigidity of work purpose. If you can get past that and figure out how to find happiness and purpose through other things, I think that the opportunities are amazing. And I think we need to take a different perspective because the four of us,

Starting point is 00:36:43 it's easy for us to be a little bit of afraid of AI, We have great lives, money, jobs, etc. If you are a poor 7-year-old in Peru milking your cows on your dad's farm, AI is going to change your life so much for the better in the next 10 years. That 7-year-old boy doesn't really have access to education, let's say, or the internet.

Starting point is 00:37:08 Elon and soon Amazon are sending tens of thousands of satellites into orbit so that we can have global internet for essentially what will be near free. That boy is going to have access to an education level greater than a Harvard PhD can now experience it with $350,000 in school debt.

Starting point is 00:37:27 He'll have access to that free education, a free AI tutor, internet, dental, etc. But do you think that's going to make entrepreneurship easier or more competitive because everyone is going to have access to the same thing? I think entrepreneurship is going to change

Starting point is 00:37:42 more in the next five years than it has changed in the history. of humanity. Anyone can you leverage, can you leverage AI? If you can't leverage AI in your company, then you're probably going to be a dinosaur. Let's talk in terms of the next like five or so years,

Starting point is 00:37:55 because I do think that we keep like going off into crazier date ranges. So in the next five years, what would you say are like the main changes that people will experience in their own life as it relates to AI? I think the next five is going to be the transition period. What will it look like?

Starting point is 00:38:10 But that's also going to be the public policy discussion because we will be going from, this kind of work survival society to probably something more like a UBI, you know, a universal basic income, although it won't be basic at all. It'll be a universal high as fuck income. And I think you'll start to see robotics probably within two or three years. So can we push it to 10 because I'm not, I'd like to introduce robotics into my prognostications. So once we have tens of millions of humanoid robots and once I can get a robot or you can get a robot or anyone can get a robot in their house, cleaning their house, driving their car,

Starting point is 00:38:45 babysitting their kid, making their meals, et cetera, et cetera. That's going to be societal changing. I don't think that's going to happen in the next five years. Education will be completely transformed. Everyone, I think the days of driving your kid to school and leaving them in some shitty government-run school for five hours where he's going to come out as a 14-year-old not be able to read is over.

Starting point is 00:39:05 I think everyone's going to have a personalized AI tutor and we're going to have access to incredible intelligence. You don't need to read or learn because you could have an AI just doing that for you. Look, I think it's going to be a good. revolutionized education, it's going to bring down the cost of everything from transportation to food to eventually when humanoid robots come into the house, like I was alluded to earlier, everyone's going to have their personal assistant and their maid and their housekeeper and their driver and their babysitter for basically free. Humanoid robots are going to cost $35,000. You'll be the least one for $400 a month.

Starting point is 00:39:33 Imagine having a housekeeper, a driver, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, all for $400 a month. So then once humanoid robots get introduced, like the first kind of iteration, you'd say that's like 10, 12 years. No. And it's like three years, two to three years. Two to three years, but then that won't be like the super intelligence one. That'll be like just a basic level. It'll be pretty damn smart.

Starting point is 00:39:51 We're already doing it right now. Mercedes factories. They're using robots to assemble certain things and they're teaching robots. Well, look, guys, robots have been around for generations. I mean, if you go to... Not talking humanoid robots. It's really the confluence of the robotics technology. And the humanoid robot has, you know, hands, which I think is the biggest upgrade from

Starting point is 00:40:10 robotics. That's probably the most difficult aspect. But also it has the AI. So even if we have... a perfect robot, it wouldn't know how to cook because it was, even if it had the dexterity to do it, it wouldn't have the intelligence to do it. It's the confluence of robotics and AI that's really going to change a lot of society. AI is going to do it, but then when it, when robotics kicks in, it's going to be, it's over. And it's all exponential because, because artificial

Starting point is 00:40:32 intelligence will, will improve itself. And robotics will build robotics. Humanoid robots in three or four years. It's not like you're going to have humans building humanoid robots at Tesla factor. It'll be humanoid robots, building humanoid robots that are fixing human robots that are building other humans. What Elon's doing, from what I understand, is he's going to keep a lot of the first humanoid robots to come out because that's going to give him an advantage financially. So instead of selling them for $35,000, why wouldn't you, if you owned a company, say, I want to keep the first $100,000 so that my company becomes dominant in its position, and then I can start selling them. So are you guys just buying a bunch of Tesla stock then? I have a lot of tests. It's my biggest holding. Yeah. I think he's the greatest. He's the

Starting point is 00:41:12 He's the best positioned. Maybe a human history, to be honest with you. Yeah, I think he's the best position to dominate AI and robotics. I don't know if there's a company that is on the cutting edge. SpaceX is the cutting edge of sending things up into space. He's at the cutting edge of AI with XAI. He's at the cutting edge of autonomous vehicles with Robotax. He's the cutting edge of electric vehicles.

Starting point is 00:41:35 He's at the cutting edge of humanoid robots. I mean, the guy is, no matter what you think of him politically, is a freaking legend when it comes to entrepreneurship. I don't think there's a second place. I don't think there's a logical argument that he's not the greatest entrepreneur of our lifetime, if not history. So yeah, he's the person I'm investing in the most.

Starting point is 00:41:53 But back to... But wouldn't you also agree that the real only hesitation or restriction for AI is probably going to be energy? And so it really is going to be about building this dice. Couldn't it become more energy efficient, though, for time? Well, it is. But the problem is that Jevin's paradox,

Starting point is 00:42:09 the more the cheaper something gets, the more people want it. So it's gotten exponentially cheaper every year. But the demand for AI, which we haven't really talked about, is a potential AI bubble, which at some point, the demand for AI is increasing exponentially. It's infinite, essentially infinite. Do you think over the next five to 10 years,

Starting point is 00:42:26 we're going to see a wider wealth gap? You have to think who's benefiting the most from that. It's probably shareholders. Well, no, I'm going to tell you who's going to benefit the most from it. And it is lower socioeconomic people. AI is going to bring up the quality of life for the body of life for the body 50% of the world.

Starting point is 00:42:42 There's a big push right now politically towards socialism, and I think there's a lot of hatred towards capitalism. And I just want to address that briefly, because it ties right into this. Yes, AI is going to create trillionaires. Elon Musk will be a trillionaire within months, if not years. And it will further aggregate, it'll create a larger wealth gap,

Starting point is 00:43:01 and it'll further aggregate extreme wealth to the top. Yes, I believe that to be the case. As does capitalism, which is why we are where we are right now with massive wealth gaps. So what's to fix? A lot of people think socialism, pull those people down, and let's all hang out in the same area. Well, I just think we tax a little bit at the top. But let me just get to, of course, but the basic point where I, the basic way in which I think we should judge a marketplace,

Starting point is 00:43:30 judge an economic system, is, is it bringing up everyone? And by how much? So yes, capitalism and AI even more. it'll be like capitalism on steroids, is going to create ultra wealthy. But it's going to bring everyone else up far more than bringing those people down, creating a more socialist system.

Starting point is 00:43:50 We're going to be all hanging out at the bottom rung for some reason because we're just jealous of the guys at the top. Why don't we bring everybody up six rungs, even though some people are way out there in the stars with trillions of dollars, who gives a shit, stop being jealous? What matters is the billions of people eliminating poverty, eliminating hunger.

Starting point is 00:44:07 Why don't we let capitalism and AI bring everybody up and stop hyper-focusing on the people that were jealous. I agree with Brett completely. Do we want to limit the very people that are helping America succeed above China right now, above other countries, in terms of this critical race, for one? I'm not interested in shackling Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk. I'm interested in allowing them, like Brett said, to bring up everybody, and that's what AI is going to do.

Starting point is 00:44:33 Whether Elon Musk is worth $100 billion or $10 trillion, I don't really give a shit about it, unless he starts buying a lanchard and stuff, and we can create some policy to restrict that. What I want is the Elon Musk of the world to be incentivized to be as successful as possible. That's all we should care about. We want Starlink. We want SpaceX.

Starting point is 00:44:51 We want to win the AI race. We want automated cars. We want humanoid robots. Whatever that tax structure is that doesn't shackle him, that doesn't disincentivize him to make all of society better, to bring up all billions of poor people in the world, that's what we should be focusing on, not whether or not Elon Musk is worth $1 trillion or $10,

Starting point is 00:45:08 And who gives us shit? If he starts buying elections, then we'll figure that out when the time comes. And the other thing, too, is they're all going to die. We can't be short-sighted. They're all going to die. And we're going to tax 50% of that $5 trillion is worth. So it's not that we're not getting that money. I don't.

Starting point is 00:45:22 I mean, you have to. That's right. But we're getting all that. There's a 10 to 30% chance. He's not a wealth tax. I want to add one more thing to this. Right now, the reason that we're talking about taxation is because the government needs money to pay for health care,

Starting point is 00:45:40 to pay for all the things that's been for, to pay for roads. The cost of these government functions in 15 years is going to be 5% of what it is today. So the idea of the government needing more money will not exist in 15 years.

Starting point is 00:45:56 The government will have its own robots. California will find a way to need the money. There's no way to government spending less money. Health care will be 5% of what it is. Education, all the things that we, you know, homelessness crime.

Starting point is 00:46:09 Fraud will be a thing at best. You think police, you think that we're going to have like human police in 20 years? Fraud is probably 20% of California's budget. AI's going to wipe that out. You'll be able to trace every dollar. So we won't need Musk's money. We spent $24 billion on homelessness

Starting point is 00:46:20 and our homelessness population has doubled. You think AI is going to permit that when we're using superintelligence to define our policies? Well, the other thing that we're going to be doing, and you just hit on it, is that right now we have policy that is dictated by politicians who are placating to a base to get reelected. It's what it is.

Starting point is 00:46:39 There's corruption from all the donation, you know, the unionist, whatever. Fine, it's been running like that for a long time. Imagine LA City Council, instead of them just doing things to try to placate their base, they actually have an AI council of a bunch of different AI bots that are actually communicating and running millions of simulations on policy and then saying, this is the best policy. So we don't, the mansion tax, as an example, everyone that thought about the mansion tax, knew that it was going to destroy, be economic devastation.

Starting point is 00:47:09 And in fact, it is. And even the most progressive and liberal promulgators of the mansion tax have now admitted that it was a massive mistake in many areas. It never would have passed with AI because you would have an AI counsel that would be analyzing it and would say,

Starting point is 00:47:23 this policy won't work for the following reason. So our public policy is going to be epically efficient in 15 years. And the costs of implementing that policy is going to be 5% of what it is today. So there's a lot of reason for optimally. in there. Graham, I want to know if I've sufficiently addressed your concerns about they're ultra wealthy. The only thing is if you did have a wealth tax, you'd be able to redistribute,

Starting point is 00:47:45 let's just say, $50 billion to the rural kids of Appalachia, and you could introduce AI to them, and then they could become the next deal on muscle. What's more important to the rural kids of Appalachia? Is it that they have, as sooner than later, they have the best health care and food and therapy and access to education? Isn't that more important than the government taxing someone and then trying to have some policy where it gets siphoned out by 150 people to this one guy gets one cup of fresh water. What I really want...

Starting point is 00:48:15 I think it's short-sair. We can call it something other than a tax, though. We could just, you know, maybe they just get a little something. But the point that I'm making that I don't think we're... He'd have to liquid it is. We don't actually believe... Yeah. But how would you task Musk all of his money

Starting point is 00:48:31 is tied up in his own companies? We were trying to force the sale of this company. We were trying to play devil's advocate for the sake. But the main point is we can't be. short-sighted, we have to incentivize these people that are changing the world what I think to be for the better and creating potentially an age of abundance. I think if we're worried about the world's poor, we want the Elon Musk of the world to be as successful as possible. What we tax Elon Musk is so freaking irrelevant to what the technology that he might be able to create and likely will create

Starting point is 00:48:57 can do for the world's poor. So we can't be short-sighted as a point of making. So why is the wealth tax so popular among some people who think that's the solution? Are they just being informed on edge? If you You tell a poor person that has no savings and is leaving paycheck to paycheck and struggling and working 60 hours a week and barely has time for his kids. And he sees somebody worth $3 billion on a yacht. And you asked the person who's struggling, do you want to tax 20% of whatever that person on the yacht owns and distribute it to you and the other people that are struggling like you? You'd have to be a moron to say no to that unless if you really, really think through the consequences, which is much more nuanced, for example, in California right now, five of, I think, the sixth most wealthy people in California have already moved due to not even the passing of the wealth tax, but just the threat of it. It's popular because it sounds amazing.

Starting point is 00:49:47 It's the nuance and the complications of it and the disincentivizations and the fact that you, it's probably not even constitutional, but even if it is, collecting it is going to be a nightmare because what do they have to do? Sell their companies to create the 20%. They're not 20% liquid. Elon Musk is worth $850 billion and his net. His liquidity is $850 million. 1%. You tax him 5%. He to sell parts of his company. It's going to disincentivize them to do things that are going to really help the world's poor. So it's just, we could go on about this for a long time, but it's incredibly short-sighted. The quick answer is it's short-sided, and it's a lack of understanding. It's human nature to want to solve unfairness by saying, that guy has more than me, I want to

Starting point is 00:50:26 take it. We've been doing that since we were cavemen. But Brett's answer is that if you think thoroughly about the long-term implications, we're better off allowing these people, become trillionaires because everyone's going to benefit 50 times more from allowing them to be successful than if we just take some of their money and we distribute it amongst ourselves now. Let's stop being jealous of the ultra wealthy. First of all, they're not that happy. They're no happier than us. Okay, so just get that through your thick skull, everybody who hates billionaires. They are not exponentially happier than us. I can promise you that. They are probably as happy at best than we are. So just get over your jealousy. If they're doing

Starting point is 00:51:06 most of them are doing incredible work for the world's poor indirectly. They're not doing altruistically. They're doing it indirectly because they're creating things like AI or robotics or autonomous vehicles. If Elon's autonomous vehicles save a million deaths a year, because that's how many people die in car accidents, is that better for the world's people than taxing 200 billion of his net worth that he can save a million people a year? Whatever we can do to incentivize these people, Let's do that. And let's stop being jealous. Stop thinking that they're super happy

Starting point is 00:51:38 because they're on their 300-foot yachts. They're normal people that put their socks on the same way we do. They have hundreds of billions of dollars of net worth in stocks. They wake up thinking about their coffee and their wife and their kids just like we do. We just got to get over this crazy jealousy. By the way, I understand. It doesn't make you like super happy. You have normal problems.

Starting point is 00:51:58 If you break your leg, it still hurts if you're a billion. That's true. And I can agree with what you're saying. I don't think that's why they do agree with what you're saying. But I'm saying the viewers, like a common thing that they could think is like, oh, I'd rather be crying in my Bugatti than crying in my broken down shit. I would be.

Starting point is 00:52:11 I'm just saying they're not this. This is not a necessary conversation. Who gives a shit how happier they are? The only point that there's a jealousy out there in the world thinking these people are super happy when they're not. But you're not going to solve jealousy on this podcast. I am. He might.

Starting point is 00:52:24 I am. We don't know. There are a lot of people in America right now that would love to strip Elon of every single penny that he has and make him a pauper. That's jealousy. That's sadness. And that is a short. term feel good, scratch the itch type of reaction when the reality is the lives of Americans,

Starting point is 00:52:41 like Brett just said, Elon Musk will, as well as others, Waymo, whatever, will save millions and millions of American lives through healthcare therapy, through autonomous vehicles. It doesn't really matter what it is. But if you truly care about the poor in America, then you want to encourage the trillionaire class to continue down the AI path so that we, we can get robotic so that we can get the protein map. If you're worried about the cost of eggs, what's going to solve that more than anything?

Starting point is 00:53:11 Is robots? It's humanoid robots. Not taxing musk. If you're worried about your son or daughter dying in a car accident because somebody was driving drunk, who's going to solve that? Elon and others. So where does that end? What if we go down a few notches to the millionaires and even the hundred thousandaires?

Starting point is 00:53:28 Shouldn't then we just reduce taxes across the board and incentivize everyone to work? Eventually, I don't think there'll be what we'll be. taxing much because the truth is a government won't need much money. The government will be able to do its functions. I think there's a level of taxation that doesn't disincentivize you. Every socialist experiment across the world, across history, has been devastating for its people. Capitalism, look what capitalism is created. You can hate on it all you want, but I'd rather be poor in America than poor in Peru or poor in Venezuela or Cuba. That's real poverty. Capitalism is the best. Local news is in decline across Canada. And this is bad news for all of us.

Starting point is 00:54:04 With less local news, noise, rumors, and misinformation fill the void. And it gets harder to separate truth from fiction. That's why CBC News is putting more journalists in more places across Canada, reporting on the ground from where you live, telling the stories that matter to all of us. Because local news is big news. Choose news, not noise. CBC News. Economic system ever created to bring up everybody.

Starting point is 00:54:34 Not equally, but ultimately everybody. The moral rubric of socialism, I understand from a compassionate perspective, but ultimately you have to be intelligent enough to look at reality and look at the experiments that we've run and look at what actually works and don't make your decisions

Starting point is 00:54:52 based on this idea of compassion, but focus on reality. And reality is capitalism has worked, it's worked better than any other system, it continues to work, and it will continue to work. So what do you say to the way? people, though, who are in their 20s or 30s and think that capitalism has failed them

Starting point is 00:55:08 and that they did not get a fair shot in life. Well, they're struggling to get ahead. But I would say a lot of people fall in that category. I agree, but they're not. But they didn't grow up in socialism. Go to Cuba and walk around like I did for a week. This is what it is. I'm not saying it's perfect.

Starting point is 00:55:25 But go to Cuba, go to Venezuela, go to North Korea, and then tell me that you wouldn't want to be in America and a capitalist system. Yeah, what it is is it's naivety. I'm just going to call it it is. It's naivity and victimization. I get the notion of wanting to scratch the itch. I get the notion of wanting to be a victim. I get the animalistic instinct of wanting to feel sorry for yourself.

Starting point is 00:55:45 I do. And I'm not completely dismissing that. And I also think that there are a lot of good people that believe that these are the right answers. The only difference between those people and us, because Brett and I grew up as progressive liberals and went to Berkeley. And I'm not philosophically against taxes at all, honestly. I believe in a redistribution of wealth to the extent that it doesn't create more harm than good. The only difference between my brother and I,

Starting point is 00:56:09 and I think the people that are complaining, is that I think we take a more critical analysis towards the policies that they're trying to implement. Because we're not against trying to lift people up, but I think we're just more analytical and more thoughtful, and we're saying, hey, your animalistic instinct to scratch that it real quick, just to take that money and give it to yourself,

Starting point is 00:56:29 may not be in your best interest in the long run. The socialist instincts, like, for example, Bernie Sanders wanted to stop AI production. He could have done more damage to the poor people across this world than maybe any human in history. That's the irony. He's so naive about his policies that he literally could have damaged billions of poor people with his policies. So it really comes down to a lot. He doesn't have a critical thinking, and he's naive, but he's good-hearted. I agree. It's true. I don't know. We just call it like it is. He's a good-hearted. naive person.

Starting point is 00:57:03 Totally agree. Who do you think should control AI or govern it? Should there be an oversight of what's allowed to take place? Right now, no. Right now we can't strict the growth. But just like we couldn't restrict the Manhattan Project. If we had put limitations on the Manhattan Project, Germany could have developed the bomb.

Starting point is 00:57:24 Is that what you meant? Well, no, of course. To a certain degree, but there's got to be in the sense of like having guard rails. But the question is, it's going to be how it operates? It's going to be a linear. matter how it operates, rules and regulations around it. It's going to be a linear progression of rules and regulations. Right now, anybody could do anything.

Starting point is 00:57:38 But right now, right? But right now, right? But let me give you the analogy that you used. The answer is right now, we need to let the Manhattan Project take its course. We didn't limit the enrichment of uranium in the Manhattan Project. We didn't limit the development of fat man and little boy or whatever, I think they were called. And we allowed America to develop atomic weaponry to utilize, it and to be the dominant force on the planet. And we won World War II and we've been the hegemonic

Starting point is 00:58:05 power of the world ever since. And then other countries developed nuclear weapons as well, Russia, China, many other countries. And then, and only then, did we get together and we say, hey, guys, now we need to start looking at disarming. We need to look at rules and regulations. AI should be done in the exact same approach, which is where we dominate without restriction and so that we can be the force for good in the world because it's either us or China. And I think Most of the world would agree. There are problems with America, but we would rather America

Starting point is 00:58:34 to have the dominant super intelligent, artificial intelligence before China. What do you think is the biggest risk to AI right now? I think if the Democrats take over, there could be a risk. Yeah, I think Democratic... I'd say policies. If Democrats restrict the development of AI

Starting point is 00:58:47 and allow China to take... But I think by then, honestly, it's too late. I think by 2020, it'll be too late. Yeah. I think we have three more years with Trump. So I think that we'll probably already have superhuman intelligence general and probably superhuman than.

Starting point is 00:58:58 I don't think there's much in its way. So then why shouldn't Jack just spend all of his money? I don't think that follows. I don't think that follows. We're always going to be in a hierarchical system, like I said earlier, and you're always going to want to be towards the top of that hierarchy. But what's the difference between having a couple million dollars and not?

Starting point is 00:59:16 Go back 100 years and tell somebody, hey, if you can be poor, this is what the poor are going to have in America in 2026. Go back 200 years. You're going to have access to clothing, rice and beans and potatoes as much as you want, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Antibiotics, toothpaste. They would look at you and be like,

Starting point is 00:59:36 why would I have to be rich? I mean, that's insane. Who cares? After that, who cares? That's my answer to you. Even if there's an age of abundance, everyone's always going to want more of something, whatever that something is. It's just not going to be eggs.

Starting point is 00:59:48 Thankfully, everyone's going to have access to the protein and carbohydrates, but it might be whatever it is. But everyone's going to want to flex. It's just, it's human nature to want to flex. So there will be things that, and we should think about those things. I'll say one thing because I think L.A. has had a very difficult few years for a lot of

Starting point is 01:00:05 myriad of different reasons. I think that there's no city on the planet that's probably going to benefit more from artificial intelligence than Los Angeles because there are only a few things that I think will be of macro-human importance because it won't be about CAPX. It won't be a service, it won't be manual labor. And that's going to be weather. And I don't think there's a better city on the planet. for that, and AI can't, and by the way, you can do a deep dive into weather and I have as to whether

Starting point is 01:00:32 AI can start changing the weather. And it can for microclimates, it can for short periods of time, but it cannot make London sunny 300 days a year. So location's going to be very important. I do think LA has a brighter future than it's ever had because it has the things that the AI can't create, but in 10 years and 15 years. Hold on a second. Do you remember that doctor's appointment you were supposed to make a while ago, the one that's been sitting on your desk for weeks, maybe months, maybe it's just an overdue annual checkup, the weird rash that you keep Googling, or it's your dentist reminding you, it's been two years since your last cleaning, get your teeth cleaned. Trust me, we've all been there. Booking doctor's appointments has always felt like such a

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Starting point is 01:03:04 And now you can try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash ICH. At ZipRecruiter.com slash ICH. Meet your match on ZipRecruiter. And so to the viewer listening right now, what is some real world application, some practical advice that you would give to them to better their understanding of AI and how to stay on top of like the best tools. Yeah, three things real quick. Learn as much as you can about AI through,

Starting point is 01:03:27 I think podcast is a bad way. But Brett, I think you're sort of limit that we should talk about the type of podcast because there's so much bullshit out there and clickbait. I'll get some recommendations. The moonshots of Peter DeVien-Dien. Moon shots is a great one. Anything with Demis, the head of Google DeepMind is amazing. The All-In podcast?

Starting point is 01:03:41 The All-in is great. Like, real intellectual podcasts, that's number one. Number two. And do what, just be aware of AI? Or do you actually have to start flying into your own? We just start to understand like we do. What about being, like, because awareness isn't really going to necessarily.

Starting point is 01:03:52 I said three things. That's number one. Number two, consider this is the era of entrepreneurship. I think starting now for the next three years, it's going to be easier to be an entrepreneur than ever before in history. AI will be able to give you whatever faculties you need from basically AI agents to your marketing to your law and whatever your company needs. It's going to be there for you at the tip of your fingers. I would really consider implementing your passion and monetizing it through entrepreneurship more than ever. And the third thing I would say is if you already have a job at like a big company or something, be the AI guy. Be the AI guy at your boring company. That is going to give you job security right now, at least for the foreseeable future.

Starting point is 01:04:36 And don't lean into, by the way, jobs that are clearly not going to be. I mean, sorry, but I don't know if you need to be going to design school right now, you know, college and grad school. Or learning to be an appraiser. Yeah, we should talk about what not to do, not just what to do, like you're saying. Are you going to go $250,000 in a debt going to Losco right now. Coming from a lawyer, I don't think that's intelligent. I'm already having Gemini Pro 3, whatever it is, doing all my legal analysis and it's drafted. How good is it? It's better than my attorney. It's incredible. And it takes 30 seconds. Both coming from two people who were practicing attorneys for years, I would say I can probably do 50 to 60 percent of what an attorney

Starting point is 01:05:10 can do right now. It'll be able to draft complaints and do legal analysis and do interrogatories. So what's going to have, document review? What is going to happen to the legal system in 20 years because we were talking to Chris Camillo about this. Well, you won't even probably have human mediators. You'll have AI mediators and it'll be quick. It'll be quick. It'll be nothing.

Starting point is 01:05:28 But go ahead. Is AI going to replace judges? Eventually. Not in three years. But lawyers will be allowed to. There's constitutional restrictions, you know, right to a jury of your peers, et cetera, that I think, but mediation, mediation will probably be AI. The arguments will probably be posited by artificial intelligence on its side.

Starting point is 01:05:46 And most intellectual and judges will be using AI. And by the way, AI has already shown to have a much better analysis than judges, much more consistent analysis. Do you think AI would be better than a jury? Lawyers are already submitting briefs to judges that are written by AI. In fact, sometimes they're still hallucinating. And judges are getting pissed off because they're citing cases that don't exist. But in three years, that won't be happening. In three years, you'll be able to get a brief done in 15 seconds.

Starting point is 01:06:08 So there will still be human lawyers. But those human lawyers will be 10 times more productive than they were. And so a law firm can be 10 people instead of 150 people. When do you think it'll get to the point, though, where you have two AIs arguing either side? You already are right now. Well, they probably won't even have to argue. They'll probably just submit the two AIs and the decision will come out in two seconds. They literally already are.

Starting point is 01:06:27 Well, you don't only need one eight. Why would you even have to go through the argument? Yeah. It'll be instant. Unbelievably cost effective. Think of all the wasted money that goes into just litigation right now. This is what I mean by entering an age of abundance. I mean, what AI can do for society is going to be freaking incredible.

Starting point is 01:06:42 Like, this should be an optimistic. You know, people should leave this podcast being optimistic because food's going to be cheaper. Quality of life is going to go up so much in the next 15 years. It's going to be so deflationary. Instead of the $24 billion that California wasted on homeless, only for the homeless population to double, that's, by the way, over $100,000 per homeless person that California spent only to create more homeless,

Starting point is 01:07:06 a bigger homeless problem. You could service every single homeless person for less money with two robots, self-charging robots, who could be making their bed, you know, one can be a drug addiction specialist. One could be a cook and a probation officer too, you know, if they're doing drugs and they're in some type of...

Starting point is 01:07:25 We're spending $130,000 per prisoner per year in California. A humanoid robot costs $30,000. It can cook, it can manage. Billions of dollars that we're going to be saving when we can actually utilize humanoid robots and government. And of course, government's going to fight this

Starting point is 01:07:40 and be the last freaking industry to adapt it. But eventually it's going to have to. Eventually it's going to have to. Eventually it's going to have to. And the savings and the... It's just the future is so freaking bright if we don't screw it up. It's so bright and so,

Starting point is 01:07:55 I'm so optimistic about it and so excited about it because it's all going to happen in the blink of an eye. We don't have to wait for, this is not going to be when we're in our 60s and 70s and 80s. It's going to be like the next 10 years. Who's most likely to screw it up?

Starting point is 01:08:06 What does that mean? Government? Yeah, you're like, if we don't screw it up. And I'm like, who is? Who is? Probably America. I'll tell you, who's not going to screw it up. It's China.

Starting point is 01:08:14 Because they don't have these political bullshit issues that we have. They're going full steam ahead, no matter what. And there's no risk of public policy restricting Chinese growth. Does that create the risk of a bubble that they're investing so much money into these companies? You can't, I don't think you can overinvest in AI. The gold at the end of the rainbow is...

Starting point is 01:08:31 We're not trying to develop the cotton gin here. We're trying to develop something that will replace human labor and human intellect. But let's talk about the bubble for a second, because I think the analogy is you're talking to two people who lived in Silicon Valley in the 1990s. So we know bubbles. And that's usually what people are talking about when they say is AI isn't a bubble is it like the dot-com bubble. This is not like that.

Starting point is 01:08:51 Although there are all some bullshit companies that are just saying their AI generated bullshit. Everything is AI. But there's a peripheral bullshit around it. I think what, yeah, of course. I think what people are afraid of is, is the capital expenditure worthwhile? Is the $600 billion of the Mag 7 are spending in compute and chips and data centers worthwhile? I would argue, and it's a reasonable question because we laid an insane amount of

Starting point is 01:09:15 We laid an insane amount of fiber optic cable during the dot-com bust, and that ended up not being used for a long time. No one's going to say that the internet revolution didn't change society. It did. But they laid way too much cable. Same with the wireless issue. I would argue the demand for compute is infinite. It's absolutely infinite. And whoever wins with AI, so to speak, I don't think it's going to be one winner. But if you need to spend $80 billion a year if you're Amazon to stay competitive, I think that's a fraction. I think that's a fraction. I think that's a fraction. of what you would lose if you're not in the game when we reach full AGI and or super intelligence. And if you're not one of the players, it's trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars that you're missing out on. So, no, I don't think we're in a bubble. I don't think they can spend enough.

Starting point is 01:09:59 But I think I'm going to augment this answer to some degree by saying, I think when people talk about a bubble, Brett takes an analytical kind of financial approach to CAPEX, but I think what they're talking about is, can the stocks go down? And the answer to that is that's just humanity and human nature.

Starting point is 01:10:15 psychology and psychology and overreaction. We can't sit here and say that humans won't overreact to certain indicators and that certain stocks won't go down. But if you look at it holistically, you can't overspend in this. Will AI change the world? Yes. Will the companies that are spending the most on AI most likely be the largest players when that happens?

Starting point is 01:10:35 Yes. So is an AI bubble in that sense? No. Now, can meta and Amazon stock go down or Tesla stock go down 20, 30 percent? Who cares? Yes. It absolutely can. I'm thinking about, are we entering an age of abundance?

Starting point is 01:10:48 Is humanity going to experience an era that is like no other in human history? I'm thinking more on those levels. And to that extent, no, AI is not in a bubble. I will say one thing because I said on your last podcast, and it's done well, and I continue to believe in it. Treasuries. And the reason is, is because I'm a firm believer in artificial intelligence being extremely deflationary. So the cost of goods is going to go down, obviously, and services. And we're going to see high unemployment.

Starting point is 01:11:15 So I just can't see in the near term how we don't, the Fed's not going to be chasing this. They're always late. I can't see how they're not going to be chasing this and we're not going to see some of the lowest interest rates. We both invested in the possibility of deflation and lower interest rates. We both invested heavily in Tesla. There's nothing better you can do than buy long-term bonds if you want to, if you want to go be long on the idea that there's going to be lower interest rates in the future. But I think long term, if you're not in the max seven, 10 years from now, you're probably going to regret that. if you have disposable income and you want to be investing.

Starting point is 01:11:48 How else are you investing outside of that? Like, what else are you buying that you think is going to retain? Vendixen cards and collectibles. Some collectibles. And that's honestly because I love them. And I would done, I started that collecting well before AI. I would say land, real estate, but even more specifically, land, where real estate?

Starting point is 01:12:05 Well, I mean, I can argue anywhere, but obviously location matters. Newport Beach, LA, weather. I mean, people are going to, when you don't have to work. You don't have to live in Illinois. So robots can build homes, but not land. That's why I'm just, for the audience, saying why I think it would go more land-heavy. When robots, this is going to be a long time from now, not because they won't have the ability to do it technically, but because we won't have enough robots to be doing it. But eventually they could probably build a house for a hell of a lot cheaper.

Starting point is 01:12:31 But they're not going to create land, and they're not going to create land in L.A. where we have perfect weather. And they won't create things like, again, I'm selfishly referring to collectibles because I've been in this game for a long time. But I still also believe that those types of things that are human in nature and that are, that can't be produced by artificial intelligence will be what's valuable. The flex might be a Honus Wagner card, right? That might be what Brett talked about how we always have a demand for, you know, hierarchy in society. So it might be the, we have to try to figure out what the flexes are. But close, it's going to be rare.

Starting point is 01:13:08 It's going to be rarity. It's going to come down to rarity, not just clothes, not, not, So what's a good value today, though? What do you think is a good value today that you could buy this year that you think will go up in value? It's maybe undervalued right now. Well, I still, I still believe. Unfortunately, there's not much undervalued

Starting point is 01:13:22 because there's so much money on the sidelines that was on the sidelines after COVID that has now come back into everything. So almost everything is valued pretty highly right now. I would still say, though, AI cannot create land in a good area. And look what's happened, although ironically, and this is only because of California policy. The real idea is people,

Starting point is 01:13:41 don't need to work from home, can work from home now, right? They don't have to be in the office. In a kind of a utopian, you know, idealistic, you know, thought experiment, people would be leaving Texas and coming to California. Because

Starting point is 01:13:57 why would, I mean, objectively, you'd want to live in California under the sun. If it wasn't for California, if it wasn't horrible policies and it wasn't crime and homelessness. You get rid of all the stupid California policies. And California is the destination for the, the global destination, once in an age of abundance where there's no work,

Starting point is 01:14:14 or you certainly don't have to work from, you know, in Austin or somewhere else where there's difficult weather. Now, granted, there are different aspects of people's families and friends. Let me ask you guys. If you had everything right now, all the clothes, food, housing, et cetera, what would you want? I don't know if I would want much, if I have the house. That's why we're naming shit that doesn't matter, like collectible. That's why I, because I have money and I have everything that I need.

Starting point is 01:14:38 So I'm starting to, I bought the John Reagan Super Bowl jersey. It's exactly that kind of stuff. It's the stuff that you don't need. It's probably will go up in value. The rare human collectibles that you don't need, ironically, I think will be the most valuable. If we're right about the age of abundance, which I think we are, then that stuff will be more valuable.

Starting point is 01:14:56 But that's beautiful. If what separates the poor and the rich is freaking baseball cards, that's amazing. That's best case scenario. If we all have food and we all have cars and we all have housekeepers and we all and education, medical care, then I would much rather the difference between a rich and a poor person

Starting point is 01:15:12 being who has a old Ferrari than it is who can freaking have food on their table. Let me follow up on this too. Let's say you were writing a book about a utopian society 50 years ago. Who knows, it doesn't matter when you wrote it. There wouldn't presumably, in a kind of an idealistic utopian society,

Starting point is 01:15:35 there wouldn't be work. certainly wouldn't be working to survive. You may be working as a fetish. You may be working, you know, because it's enjoyable. But the idea, whatever book you wrote. Sure. But whatever you're writing about, you're not saying, oh, in my utopian society, people must work to survive.

Starting point is 01:15:53 That can't be. So from an optimistic perspective, we are moving towards utopia. We are moving towards not having to work in an age of abundance. Can I make a side for here? Yeah, in one second. That is almost the definition of utopian society. I'm not saying it's going to be utopian, but we're going to have very low crime.

Starting point is 01:16:11 We're going to all be able to eat, drink, drive, have leisure activity, not have to work. Medical care, education. Yeah, I mean, we really are going to be living the definition of utopian society. There's a lot of reasons to be optimistic here. So the side point I want to make is most jobs are horrible. Okay, like, we're luxury real estate agents in L.A. You guys are podcasters.

Starting point is 01:16:30 Okay, but most jobs suck. I mean, you're driving to work in traffic. You're sitting in a freaking computer in a cubicle. Oh, God damn day. I mean... Or you're up on a hot roof, nailing, you know, two-by-fours. So let's just be real here. I mean, the less of those, the better, as far as I'm concerned.

Starting point is 01:16:47 I don't... Like, oh, we're going to lose each... Yeah, most of the jobs we're going to lose suck. We were lawyers at big law firms. I'm sorry, but I don't see... I would have rather someone just give me a hundred grand a year. And by the way, I don't know about UBI. I don't know about that.

Starting point is 01:17:01 But I want to address the UBI. Because I think a lot of... of people, I think a lot of people misinterpret these studies. If you do an analysis of the, of the UBI studies, there have been multiple, so I'm curious to hear your take. There have been multiple studies, and I think there's a misdiagnosis of those studies as where people were not satisfied or not, after one year. And the happiness, yes. And those study, and my analysis is completely opposite. Okay, but hold on. The studies have shown after, during logical studies, let me just tell the audience. Okay, fine. The studies have shown oftentimes that UBI has been a disaster

Starting point is 01:17:30 in the sense. Totally disagree. After one year, their level of happiness, first of all, they're not investing very well. Secondly, their level of happiness after one year is the exact same, if not lower, than it was. Totally disagree. It's not what the studies say. Okay, go ahead. No. The studies show an increase in happiness for almost everyone, including at different age groups,

Starting point is 01:17:47 even people that were working, or obviously, if you give it to poor people, they're going to increase their happiness. Well, the only time that you saw the happiness decrease and actually went below was when they ended the program. Or close to the end of the program, when they knew that it was ending. they got anxiety and stress. In a longitudinal UBI practice, go do a deep dive right now, you will see the study, yes. Have you read the books about the people

Starting point is 01:18:11 that win the lottery and how unhappy they are like three years later? That's not UBI, just not UBI. I would rather, can we agree that you would rather UBS or no? What is UBS? Services? Yeah, because that's how I think we should.

Starting point is 01:18:24 I've never heard of UBS before. We should provide, instead of giving people money, which they usually suck at, Did you see how busy Rodeo Drive was? Hold on, let me just make this point. How busy was Rodeo Drive during COVID? When we all got the Stim-Jit. It was insane.

Starting point is 01:18:37 People were buying foreigners. People who not know how to handle discretionary income. It's a fact. I don't care what studies are. Who cares? It's going to be a mix of UBI and UBS, obviously. Because you're going to provide people robotics. Look, you get a humanoid robot.

Starting point is 01:18:49 You get medical care. You get food, you get, et cetera, as opposed to you get $50 a month. Let's just call it a confluence of the two. It's obviously going to be both. We're not just giving them money that you can go buy drugs or something like that. I don't like the idea of UBII. Obviously you're going to, fine, we provide them a humanoid robot. The point is, when you...

Starting point is 01:19:04 That out of before. There is a lot of studies that show that UBI slash UBS works, if it is consistent and you don't take it away. So I'm optimistic that humans have always been able to adapt. When we were in tribes thousands of years ago, we derive satisfaction from different things. We derived it from storytelling. We derived it from religion.

Starting point is 01:19:26 We derived it from family. We derived it from, you know, raising children in a collective. Making jewelry out of the bones of the animals we killed. Exactly. There's so many ways to derive human purpose. Now, it's great that we derive human purpose from work. Why? Because we've been inculcated as children, and capitalism must survive by inculcating the value of work.

Starting point is 01:19:46 So I get that. And right now we do derive. But the idea that somehow purpose is inexorably tied to work is simply not the case. we've created that social construct and we can decouple it and we can we can reattach purpose to the many other things that I think are more valuable. Like family or ethics. Or hobbies or hobbies or passions or. Grant Cardinalectual endeavors.

Starting point is 01:20:11 He says that you will be happy to the degree that you are productive. No. Well, hold on. That's not necessarily inconsistent. If productive doesn't necessarily mean with work. Fine. If you raise a family, you can educate yourself. That's productivity.

Starting point is 01:20:25 So I don't disagree with that. Depending on what he means. It depends on what he means by productive. You'd have to follow up on. Fine. The point is it's probably offering some sort of benefit to society, that you are contributing to something bigger than yourself. I disagree with that.

Starting point is 01:20:39 I disagree with the construct because, yes, I get, I derive purpose in my life from productivity, from adding, I think, adding value to society from creating, from creating happiness and others. But I'm solely from that. But that's because I am a construct. Your connections with your friends and family. My social structure. I'm a construct of the,

Starting point is 01:20:55 the education, the American capitalist education. So of course I derive my value from that. But young people can be taught that purpose comes from so many different things. And when they grow up, they don't attach it just to work. So what I'm saying is we can decouple. I drive happiness from friendships, from acquiring knowledge. I love that, from good sex, from good food, from a lot of things that are completely separate from my work.

Starting point is 01:21:22 enjoyable dinners with friends to traveling and to experiences, to going to an F1 race, to going to the Cannes Film Festival, to hanging out with you guys on the podcast, to buying you guys lunch for 12 straight years. I don't think that... That's actually false. I don't think that that's what Graham is by production. Exactly. Graham hasn't paid for lunch since the early 70s.

Starting point is 01:21:40 Okay. I mean, if you want to ask you... Yeah, I can pull out of your seats because you did... Wait, hold on. Let me state the fact. And then you can disagree. You want to say your opinion. Go ahead.

Starting point is 01:21:49 He has a receipt. Why don't you see that first? sponsoring Graham's lunches for over 11 years straight. 99% of Graham's lunches I'll claim his wardrobe. Go ahead. And I'm 80% responsible for his wardrobe. This is one of your shirts. I think,

Starting point is 01:22:02 Brett, these are your pants? As long as you don't have my underwear on. Are you going to show me a receipt from like one lunch that you buy at some point? Because you did buy lunch a couple months. You don't have my underwear on. They'd be baggy on you. Go ahead.

Starting point is 01:22:13 Nothing you can say can disprove this. Graham, just admit it. What? Just admit that I've been buying you lunch for 12 years. Yeah, yeah. it's not one. So you used to say, oh,

Starting point is 01:22:23 you bought one lunch. So I don't necessarily disagree with that. I don't know. Go ahead. Let Jagger. I don't disagree. I don't disagree.

Starting point is 01:22:29 I don't disagree. I don't disagree with you subsidizing Graham's life. That I don't necessarily have a problem with that. But you did mention that like, hey, every time I go out with you guys, I pay.

Starting point is 01:22:38 And that's actually categorically false. If anything, I have no problem paying. If anything, I actually think it's two to two right now. Maybe with you. With you. With me.

Starting point is 01:22:45 With me. With me. With me. But I'm sick. But Graham, it's probably, Hey Ontario, come on down to BetMGM Casino and check out our newest exclusive. The Price is Right Fortune Pick. Don't miss out. Play exciting casino games based on the iconic game show. Only at BetMGM. Access to the Price's Right Fortune Pick is only available at BetMGM Casino.

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Starting point is 01:23:28 You bought a great white Merlewrestia. Yeah, yeah. Jack, fair, we're two and two. But in fairness, you paid for it so you could show your audience and you paid for it. That's not sure. I didn't know I was going to bring it up to it. Graham. The only had the receipt to save. It's like, can you send me the digital receipt of that please? And, and by the way, I think I've bought it. I'd have hundreds of dinners because what he would do is order a big lunch and then he would pack half of it to go for dinner.

Starting point is 01:23:51 So I've really been buying your lunch. So I actually, he's mentioned this plenty of times. So he said it was actually like a frugal life hack. My hack was that you would take the office out to lunch and there would be maybe five to seven people. But everyone would only eat half. And so I would take everybody's halves. Well, also, you know what he would do? What you would do is he would encourage us to get like cassidia.

Starting point is 01:24:11 So they were like discreet, you know, parcels of food that he could take home as opposed to like a half eaten something. He would encourage that? I think he would actually encourage. Oh, yeah, get that. I was like, don't get the soup. Yeah, don't get the soup or something. You did a burrito, but split that in half. In fact, he would spend it.

Starting point is 01:24:26 Oh, he wants a burrito cut in half. Yeah, or he wants the cassidia sliced. Well, he was picking out your food after you left. We have created wealth for each other independently through completely different approaches because I've never been frugal. And I think I'm an example of you can be hardworking and successful and be the opposite of frugal and be, you know, wealthy. Whereas you took a different approach.

Starting point is 01:24:46 What's the biggest financial? Hail Mary you've ever had. You mean, well, I, opening the office on something I would say, no, that's not what you mean by hell married? Like, taking on excessive risk for where you should. Going all in on one thing. Oh, the office. The first office. The office. The first office. If I Graham was like my first agent. No, this, this office

Starting point is 01:25:03 right here. Actually, the biggest risk we took was probably higher a grant. Yeah. Well, because I signed up for a 10 year lease. I don't know whatever it was. 10,000 a month. Ten thousand a month. And I had no and I had no money. And I had no money. Yeah. It's just me. I had no brokerage. So that was the biggest of your network did you put the build out in the office space. I think it was about 300,000. And it was in 2014. I was probably 2014, yeah, I was probably worth about a million dollars. I think I probably would. So you put about half. About a third of it. But I also was then on the hook for hundreds of thousands of dollars of lease payments.

Starting point is 01:25:35 And how confident were you at the time that it was going to work out? 70, 80 percent? Well, yeah, because I think it's an interesting question because I think I was naively confident. So, but, you know, and I think I almost knew that. I was naive at comical. But even at the time, even at that time, were you ever higher than 80? Well, I also had worked hard for a few years and I've always, I also didn't have much concern about going backwards too. You know, I lived in a $1,400 apartment. I didn't, I was happy then. I was happy, you know, while I was doing well in real estate. I don't know. It's not a good question because I think I was naively, I knew that things would work out and at the same time, I knew that

Starting point is 01:26:14 I would be fine if they didn't. But I think that's a unique situation. I'm not. not recommending it necessarily. I think it was probably most 90% of business school students would have said that was a dumb investment. Arguably, one of the biggest differences between you and I, Graham, I think we know each other very well, is that I think I spend money on things that make me happy and quality of life. And I think you are generally more concerned slash pessimistic and careful. And you live a great quality of life and you're happy, but you're less indulgent than I am. And I think it's okay to be indulgent. I don't think it's necessarily beneficial

Starting point is 01:26:53 to be going through life, spending money based on a worst-case scenario. I don't. I think you would be happy in a larger house. I think you allowing yourself to indulge, as long as you can get past the mental anxiety that it might create you, is a net positive. Had I had your approach of anxious pessimism,

Starting point is 01:27:13 I wouldn't have opened the office, and I wouldn't have been able to, you know, have the company and have the expansion. I would look at it this way, Graham. Can you afford the worst case scenario? I take the worst case, which was the Great Depression of 1929, and then can it get a little worse than that? You really get a worst case.

Starting point is 01:27:33 Yeah, I take an 82% drop. And then I assume my income goes to zero. At the same time, my lifestyle has to go up. Let's say we have kids, and then there's a health problem, and then one of my parents gets... Can I counter this? Yeah, please. During the Great Depression, those who had any amount of wealth after the crash had the best buying opportunity

Starting point is 01:27:54 and the best opportunity for appreciation in the last century. And depreciation. And that's what I said. Does that make sense? I said if you are not forced to sell and if you can weather that worst case scenario, you'll actually, every time in American history of the last 150 years that we've seen that type of crash, if you were able to persevere and not be forced to sell, that within 10 years you'd be wealthier than ever before. But even if you don't, you're wealthier than ever before within 10 years.

Starting point is 01:28:21 So just don't, as long as you're not forced to sell. My fear is always saying, oh, just because for the last 150 years it's done that, it doesn't mean it's always, even though I agree that there's a 90 plus. It's more likely that AI wipes you out. And it doesn't matter. Yeah, I would say the chances of the existential threat of AI wiping out humanity is higher than that scenario. A worse than Great Depression type of crash that lasts for multiples longer, that's less than

Starting point is 01:28:45 1% what you're talking about. Anyway, also that house will be worth. Let's keep going on that's the main thing is that what I find interesting is whenever Graham is kind of at a crossroads or is like should I spend the money, should I not spend the money. This house, for example, he reached out to Jason to get Jason's opinion on and Jason gave some crazy numbers in terms of you're spending half of your income every single year. Graham is spending like less than 2% of what he could withdraw from his investment account every year. Yeah. And so and but that still was not necessarily. I don't even want to share with your audience what percent of my income. What percent of your

Starting point is 01:29:14 income high, it's embarrassing, and I'm not happy about it. But I mean, this is what happens. Your lifestyle gets like, you catch up to your income. Your lifestyle just, you just adapt slowly. You know what I mean? And you end up like, how the hell am I spending this every month? He looks at what he spends. I don't. I just look to make sure that I'm increasing my wealth every year. And if I am, I don't give a shit what I spent. And how do you measure your increased wealth? I do an analysis of my net worth. And does it have to go up a certain percentage every year? No, no, no, as long as it How percent do you typically go up per year? Oh, of my net worth?

Starting point is 01:29:47 I've never looked at it like that. But I generally add millions to my net worth every year. And I'm spending a shit ton. The advice that I would give your audience is don't chase wealth. Chase the trajectory of wealth. I would rather, and I would be much happier and sleep much better, if I was, if I died at 50 million versus a billion, but I was wealthier every year until that 50 million, as opposed to I died at a billion, but I went to a billion and then died to a

Starting point is 01:30:14 million and then up to three billion and then down to 400 million. That will drive you crazy and it's not what you want. Even if you die wealthier, it's just not worth it. For your happiness, your peace of mind and your sleep and your stress levels and your health, just wish upon, I wish upon everybody just a trajectory towards becoming wealthier every year, even if it's much, much slower than you would like. And I think on top of that, it's a process. And if you're not enjoying the process, if you're somehow thinking, I'll be happy when I have X money, I could not come. I could not come up with a worst possible approach to life. Because one, I guarantee you that will change.

Starting point is 01:30:50 I remember the numbers I used to have when I was young, you know, 10, 15 years ago. Those numbers always increase. And by the way, I would say if you were to ask me the happiest years of my life, although I've had just a wonderful life and I think I'm, you know, I'm very happy right now. But if I had to point, I'd probably be interested in your take. I would probably say junior college. I was going to say junior college. 18 to 20 where I had very little money.

Starting point is 01:31:15 Drinking, 90 eyes. Yeah. No money. And, you know, wearing a wife beater and working on my 69 Camaro, you know, five hours a day in a, you know, in an ROP class, working at as a waiter or as a barback, hanging out with my buddies, eating the burritos at the Roach Coach. We go to Subway, we'd split a foot long to save money, or we go to the Roach Coach, you know, and give a burrito. Probably six times a week. Or whatever the dollar sub was at subway. We eat that like five days a week.

Starting point is 01:31:44 Yeah, that's what I was saying. It's insane. I must have had subway. I think I had subway 250 tons in one year. You know, driving like a total beater. I probably would have been like six foot six if I didn't do that. And so happy, just really, really happy years, partying, hanging out. I do that also that we know a lot of really wealthy people.

Starting point is 01:32:02 And the relationship between extreme wealth and happiness is disconnected. And beyond that, nobody hits a billion dollars. never once in the history of billionaires. Somebody hit a billion dollar net worth and be like, I'm done, I did it, I can chill. And now I'm happy. It's just not the way it works. Like, oh, two billion.

Starting point is 01:32:19 Well, that guy's a bigger yacht. That's just human nature. It doesn't change because you're wealthy. It's the same human nature. You still don't get jealous of people who have more than you. You don't just get to this point of like, okay, now I really am in a golf every day and be and live this amazing lifestyle like I thought when I was 17.

Starting point is 01:32:33 To a certain degree, once you get some money, it's super helpful. Because if you go to, if you can go to dinner and you can just buy dinner, you know, if I can take you guys to lunch like I do. Graham wouldn't know. And I have to worry about it. Then you're wealthy. The extra million dollars so that I can go buy the John Reagan's Super Bowl jersey and the Ford GT, the incremental happiness that I get is like a point one.

Starting point is 01:32:55 So what, what would you say that the incremental happiness really starts to, like the curve starts to. It depends where you live in LA. I'd rather be making $300,000 a year. Shit, I'd rather be making $100,000 a year. living in L.A. with good friends and a healthy family and my little dog and great people in the office, then be a billionaire without that. What are the main things that are very much worth spending money on? Business classes. You know what's funny? I used to actually think that business class

Starting point is 01:33:27 was the worst expenditure money on climate. I'd be like, how the fuck does somebody spend $9,000 when I can fly there for $450? That is the dumbest $9,000 you could possibly spend. And now to me it's like the best money that I could possibly spend. But other than that, I would say good food. I love good food. I think vacations. Oh, you know what I would say? Vacations, yeah.

Starting point is 01:33:48 You know what I would say? Where I enjoy spending money the most is on other people. And I don't mean that to come across as like somehow, you know. No, I really don't. Yeah, that's what I meant. I like, no, not philanthropy because that's not direct. I'm just kidding. I mean, I do philanthropy, but anyway, I do a lot of things.

Starting point is 01:34:09 Yeah, I really like being able to, as stupid as this is, I like being able to go to dinner with my friends and getting dinner and just every single time. I like to, we're going to stagecoach. I am getting the house and I really enjoy that. I'm getting the artist passes. Not for you, you got to pay for your own. But I really take pride in the fact that I, you know,

Starting point is 01:34:29 you think it would bring you joy to give me an artist pass. It does. It does, doing things for it does make me a joy. I'll update you. But I enjoy that more than anything because I think the, I don't know, the best thing you can do with money is increase the happiness of those people around you.

Starting point is 01:34:42 I'm like very utilitarian in that respect. So I do appreciate that. I mean, that's why we enjoy buying you guys lunch. I appreciate it. It's the least we could do. Lunch in the singular. No, for real. Philanthropy.

Starting point is 01:34:52 I think we had Panchez Taga's. Pinchase. Pinchase. Yeah, you did get me Pinchase, real. Yeah. The only other question I was curious, what was the last argument you two had? It's every day, I don't know.

Starting point is 01:35:02 Yeah, but surprised we didn't even argue. But we don't argue in the way that we used to. We don't fist fight anymore much. What's last fistfight? I don't think we really... We don't really go at it like the last few years. I think we pushed each other

Starting point is 01:35:15 I think he's finally learned his lesson. A few weeks ago, yeah. Did you win the last fist fight? No, I beat him up in a parking lot, I think. And the police had to actually pull me off of him, so I think I won that one. When was that? Wait, hold on that.

Starting point is 01:35:27 Did you just keep wailing on him when he was already pinned? Hold on a second. Yeah, it's hard to pick us up. Our friends have had to break us up. There are winners and losers in our fist fight. Oh my God. Yes, I can beat Brett up and I beat him up a whole life.

Starting point is 01:35:39 either of us ever got knocked out was when? I, oh my God, this story, Brett thinks he knocked. I literally, all I wanted to do. He didn't get up for a while, but we were like nine years old. Second of all, I laid there because I wanted him to come back over, so I kicked the shit out of him. And he was too smart to come back over. That's the only reason I laid there.

Starting point is 01:35:56 He tells that story like you knocked me out. What about the time of death? No, I was pretending like I was hurt. Where you started bleeding out of your nose and I hit you in the face and you're saying, that's 18 drop to blood. I'm going to fucking kill you, and he's counting the drops of blood. like it. You know what? I think my point is proven by the fact that Brett remembers the two times that he's never happened. Because you remember one,000 times that I'd be his ass. Thank you. I've

Starting point is 01:36:16 named two. Jason, go ahead. I will literally give you a piece of evidence right now. The floor is yours. The floor is yours. The floor is yours. It's two to zero. It's two to zero in stories of getting your ass beat by your brother. Brett, let's just be honest. We've been honest this entire podcast. Be honest. I've kicked your ass your entire life. Just be honest. Ninety nine percent of time. In the most extreme examples of getting your ass beat. Oh my God. This guy's such a lawyer. He is such a fucking lawyer.

Starting point is 01:36:39 He is such a fucking lawyer. See how he's lawyers everything? But in a lot of the ass kicking. In a lot of the lesser ass kickings, I've been, I've taken the breath of us.

Starting point is 01:36:47 The victim, yeah. Who benches more between you two? I do. I'm strong. No? Actually, he's gotten pretty strong. He's gotten pretty strong. Most of our lives,

Starting point is 01:36:54 I've been able to physically dominate him. Well, it's not because of strength. It's because he will bite and scratch. It's just, he has no moral virtue in fighting whereas I do. I will win. That's what he means. He would beat me up. He tried to beat me up in front of my mom on her

Starting point is 01:37:10 birthday last... Do you remember that? In a five-star hotel lobby in front of my mom on her birthday. He has no fucking shame. No shame. Why? Why? Because Brett has a mouth on him. Because he just doesn't know what to stop. Brett's antagonistic and has a mouth. And I would use my physical dominance and Brett would use his mouth. And if he mouth, I would... Could you imagine a worse time to do something stupid on your mom's birthday in front of her in the lobby of a five-star hotel. Right, you must have said something

Starting point is 01:37:36 intact. It must have been an antagonist. Do you remember what it was that you said? Just stupid stuff. He just has no obstacle when he gets mad at me. How long ago was this? Two years ago? This was only two years. Last year? Was it last year? Dude, it was in San Francisco when we took mom to the Berkeley speech. Oh. It was last year. Yes, it was. It was like a year ago this week. Yeah. And by the way, he was talking shit. And I literally said, bro, say another fucking word, and I'm going to take you down in the, and we were in the lobby of a really nice hotel. In front of my mom on her fucking birthday. He wouldn't shut his mouth.

Starting point is 01:38:05 She was mortified. What did you say? This is what I'm dealing with. He's an antagonist. So what did you say after he said that? And then he blames me. Like somehow being physical is worse than being antagonistic. But you didn't, you stopped talking once he said that.

Starting point is 01:38:17 No, he didn't. He keeps up. He can't stop talking. But you didn't take him down now. I did take him down. And then he keeps talking. So you guys actually did end up fighting. Yes, I do remember that.

Starting point is 01:38:26 Yes. And I won. But we don't do it nearly as often. Pretty soon you'll be able to settle this with AI. Not our fights. No. I think it's the last thing that AI is going to do. But we do it a lot less, a lot.

Starting point is 01:38:35 We get along way better than we used to do. At one point, do you know when to stop fighting? We don't. He doesn't. When we get separated. Yeah, police. My mom's crying. How long does it take to, like, get over that?

Starting point is 01:38:46 No, 10 minutes. Oh, quickly. 10 minutes. It probably took us 30 minutes that day because that was a really bad physical fight. 30 of it's really bad. We really got under each other's skin. But within 30 minutes, we were fine. Usually anywhere from 30 seconds to 30 minutes.

Starting point is 01:38:58 It's like the two cats that just like topple. Yeah, I don't understand. that one cat's bigger and stronger, but yes. There shouldn't be an aspect of... More like a lion and a cat. There shouldn't be an aspect of his personality that surprises you by now. It doesn't surprise me.

Starting point is 01:39:10 And so why, but if you're able to predict that he's able to say something, then why would it's lying? Lack of emotional maturity is the answer to the question you're posing. What? Why you can't stop talking? Why you can't just take the antagonism without getting physically...

Starting point is 01:39:21 Why can't you just take the beating? Or... Or shut your mouth. Or shut your mouth. The worst sentence ever uttered on a podcast I was going to say take the mics away at this point. Oh my God, dude. All right.

Starting point is 01:39:39 That was a good one. All right. Thank you so much. It's a lot different than what we usually. I really enjoyed this discussion. You know, who you would really enjoy talking to is Chris Camillo. When it comes to the AI talks, if this does well, we'd love to bring in Chris to talk to you about AI. He is our AI guy.

Starting point is 01:39:54 And you'll have a great discussion. Brett's so intelligent about this topic. I love that we had the opportunity. Thank you so much for watching the podcast. really appreciate it. And if you want to see our next episode, early access with Sophie Rain. This is an episode that initially YouTube didn't like it. We had to cut around it. We had to do some censoring. But if you want to see the entire episode in its full form as it is before it goes public to everyone else, feel free to join as a channel member. Get access to this episode,

Starting point is 01:40:23 along with every other episode, uncut and uncensored. Enjoy. Thank you so much. And until next time.

The Iced Coffee Hour - “This Is Terrifying!” You’re NOT Ready For What’s About To Happen With AI | Jason & Brett Oppenheim

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