The Indicator from Planet Money - ICE influencers, a world-record trade surplus, and the moon goes nuclear

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

Welcome back to Indicators of the Week! Our weekly look at some of the most fascinating economic numbers from the news. On today’s episode: Influencers for ICE, China’s tremendous trade surplus, and America heads back to the moon. Related episodes: We resolve to watch these 2026 indicators China's trade war perspective Who owns the moon?For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Vito Emanuel. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

NPR. This is the Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong. I'm Darian Woods, and we're joined today by Planet Money's Sarah Gonzalez. Sarah, it has been too long. It always feels too long. Sarah, you truly could not have picked a more beautiful day to come into the indicator orbit because today is indicators of the week.

This is the day of the week when we talk about the most interesting numbers from the news. On today's episode, we're talking about the Trump administration's ICE recruitment strategy, China's world record beating trade surplus, and pack your dipping dots. We're going back to the moon. I'll bring some crackers for the cheese. Indicators of the week, Sarah, you're first. All right. So my indicator of the week is a hundred million dollars. That is how much the Trump administration has set aside to spend on a one-year, so-called wartime recruitment strategy, to hire more immigration and customs enforcement workers. So this is all according to a document that the Washington Post got a hold of.

It says that immigration officials plan to flood the market with millions of dollars worth of social media ads and to pay pro-ice social media influencers and other online creators to normalize and humanize careers at ICE through storytelling and lived experiences. That's a quote. Well, they're already making these, right? I mean, I've seen footage of videographers trailing after agents and then they put together these slick videos and post them on social media. So I think some of it's already happening, right? The Washington Post couldn't confirm whether this strategy has been implemented or how much of this strategy.

But it certainly seems to coincide with ads and ad campaigns and social media content that we're seeing online. Apparently, at least $8 million of the $100 million is supposed to be spent on this influencer program. They say that they are particularly interested in veterans, former agents, and pro-ice creators. And like the idea behind recruiting influencers, according to this document, is to build trust through authentic peer-to-peer messaging. So they want to reach people with like a big Gen Zian millennial following and apparently also people who are tactical lifestyle enthusiasts. I mean, this is the kind of language, you know, like build trust through authentic peer-to-peer messaging. This is language that I'm used to hearing from the advertising industry when they talk about working with influencers. But how unusual is it for the government to be recruiting influencers in this way?

I mean, this is where you reach people these days, right? And they do partner with like marketing organizations. So the Biden administration also did recruit influencers for its own public health campaign around the COVID-19 vaccine. So I remember one influencer did like a. Q&A with Dr. Anthony Fauci, remember that guy. Other influences were just kind of encouraging people to get vaccinated. So all right. So this may be the future of marketing, even for the government. Future and present, I would say. And so the money for this comes from all the new ICE cash that Congress approved last year as part of the one big, beautiful bill, right? Yeah. The budget,

just for ICE's enforcement and deportation activities alone, tripled this summer. It's almost $30 billion now. And so that money can go towards everything from like modernizing deportation planes to, yeah, hiring more ICE officers and staff. Now, according to the post, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson did not dispute their reporting and actually said that she was thrilled to see the outlet highlighting their quote, wildly successful ICE recruitment campaign. Now, a little update on where ICE is in their recruitment efforts earlier this month, the Department of Homeland Security said that their hiring push has shattered expectations that they've hired 12,000 officers and agents in just about four months. So there used to be about 10,000 ice workers, and there's now over

22,000 of them. And their priority is really doing this quickly. Okay, thank you, Sarah, for that update. Now, Darien, what do you have? My indicator is $1.2 trillion. That's the size of China's trade surplus last year. It's the largest trade surplus any country, any country, any anywhere in the world has ever had. Whoa. Okay, so this is, they exported more than they imported. A lot more. A lot more.

Yes, there has been big growth in exports to Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Those countries are seeing container load upon content load of inexpensive Chinese goods come through their ports. So I guess whether you see this as a good or bad development depends on whether you're buying those cheap laptop stands and toasters or whether you're making. them. Yeah, like if you're competing against them. So because of the ways that this can hurt other countries' manufacturers, we are seeing countries like Mexico push back to protect its own industries. Mexico put in place sweeping new tariffs on countries like China over the new year, most topped out at 35%. Guess everyone's doing the tariff thing now. Even though Econ 101 says

that trade overall makes both countries richer. But the benefits of cheaper goods, does tend to be spread out among many consumers, and the costs, you know, when that undercuts local producers, that can be quite concentrated. And I mean, that is the rub for the politicians, right? That's the problem. Yeah, you'll hear this wave of Chinese goods being called overcapacity. And overcapacity is really in the eye of the beholder. Does this mean the Chinese government subsidizing its manufacturing to dump goods all around the world and hollow out their manufacturing sectors, or is it a gift to the globe? Is it giving us cheap solar panels, electric vehicles, and smartphones? If only we would accept them. But wait, what does this say about the US tariffs? It doesn't

sound like it's slowing down Chinese exports. Yeah, so China's surplus to the US did shrink last year. But what we're seeing is that China has redirected a lot of the goods that would have gone to the U.S. to other regions and then more. In many cases, the goods are selling for cheaper than what they'd go for in the U.S. There's always going to be a buyer. Yep. So next shopping trip, I don't know, head to Vietnam. Or to the moon. Which is our next indicator. Okay. How much can I buy a Lububu there for? Labouou economics work differently on the moon because of the gravity thing here, and I'll explain that to you later. Okay, so my indicator is 20.

That is the year that a lunar surface reactor will be developed for deployment to the moon and its orbit. Wait, so you're talking a nuclear reactor? Yes. This is energy. We want energy on the moon. We want energy on the moon. Why the moon? Are we moving to the moon?

Yeah, pack your bags. This reactor is part of NASA's Project Artemis. This is NASA's venture to explore the moon and establish a long-term. human presence there. Basically, you know, like trying to figure out how to eventually live apart from Earth someday, you know, on the moon, maybe even to Mars. Okay. When's this nuclear power going to be set out? It's unclear. But NASA, along with the Department of Energy, announced a renewed commitment to develop a planetary power source this week. It follows an executive order late last year from President Trump. That order called for a permanent lunar surface base by 2030 and at least

one reactor on the moon that same year. It's worth adding that this order was preceded by another order to, quote, usher in a nuclear renaissance. Okay. And so how much power might get generated? Well, they're planning on building a reactor that can juice up to 40 kilowatts of electricity. That could power 30 households for 10 years. The Department of Energy says it can theoretically be scaled up. It can also work quite literally where the sun don't shine. So, That's consistent power no matter what. What a bright future, you guys. 30 households, maybe they could come around for potluck dinner.

I will happily watch those 30 households. The moon reality show. From here on Earth. The real housewives of the moon. That's what's actually going to happen, Whalen. You hit the nail on the head. That's for sure the next step. It's going to be astronauts throwing mimoses in each other's faces.

But unable to connect because it's just going to like flow out. Yeah, exactly. All right, well, Sarah, Darien, thank you, and see you on Earth sometime in the future. Looking forward to it. Thanks, guys. This episode was produced by Angel Karearis and engineered by Maggie Luther. It was fact-checked by Vito Emanuel. Julia Ritchie edited this episode.

Kate Concanon edits the show and The Indicator is a production of NPR.