The Indicator from Planet Money - The anxiety rattling China’s youth

Episode Date: March 4, 2026

China will soon unveil its economic blueprint for the next five years, including a target for economic growth. This comes as consumption is down, wages aren’t rising, and property prices continue to drop. So what’s the plan? Today, we hear from NPR’s China correspondent Jennifer Pak about the challenges facing China’s economic policymakers.FYI, we are going on a book tour! Planet Money’s first ever book comes out in April. We’ll be celebrating in about a dozen cities. There’s a limited edition tote bag included with your ticket, while supplies last. Details, dates and how to get your ticket at planetmoneybook.com.Related episodes: What might save China’s economyChina’s luxury liquor indicatorFor sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

NPR. This is The Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong. So my teenage daughter and her friends are really into blind boxes these days. They're small collectibles, often vinyl figurines, and they come packaged so that you don't know exactly which one you'll get. The fun is in the unboxing. And these blind boxes are also really popular in China.

That's what NPR correspondent Jennifer Pack tells us. So those are really kind of quick things that you can buy that doesn't cost a lot, makes you feel really satisfied for a bit until, you know, the next fixing is needed. Jennifer says one reason that blind boxes are hot in China is that people, especially young people, don't have a lot of money to spend. Consumption's been sluggish. This is the backdrop this week as the Chinese government unveils its 2026 target for economic growth. Thousands of representatives are gathering for the National People's Congress. The government will announce its gross domestic product target for the year and outline a plan for how to get there. It's like its own kind of blind

box reveal, but with much higher stakes from both China and the U.S., given the ongoing trade war and race for technological dominance. Today on the show, Jennifer Pack tells us about the challenges facing China's economic policymakers. Jennifer Pack and PR's China correspondent, you have been roaming the streets of Beijing recently. What's the economic mood like? I would say it's very different from 20 years ago when I first came to Beijing to work. You know, back then we were talking about what are Chinese consumers buying? It's the new middle class, you know, what kind of cars are they buying for the first time? What kind of luxury goods are they binging on? We even went to training schools for butlers because there's so many wealthy people. Now I would say consumers are

a bit more reserved, deflated. I mean, one economist even described them as depressed because youth unemployment is very high. And even those people who have a job, wages aren't rising. And homeowners, and that's the majority of households, they're feeling a lot poorer because property prices have been dropping for four years plus. So it's against this backdrop that the Chinese government will be releasing its GDP target, which will be a range, right, for this year. Can you talk a little bit about why the Chinese government releases a GDP target? Sure. This system was adopted from the Soviet Union when China's economy. was planned. And this was a goal for everyone to work towards. Now these days, China's economy is much more mixed, but the state still plays a very big role in it. So these GDP targets, as well as the key sectors at list, are really signals for entrepreneurs and investors to know where to put their money at. Because guess what? If China's government says, hey, we're into green energy. If you bring a project on oil and gas, maybe you're not going to get speedy approvals. Same time, it's also a signal for

normal people to know what to expect next. In the U.S., of course, it's a really different approach, right? The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, and it has an inflation target, but not a target for overall economic activity like China does. So how often does China hit the GDP goal that it announces? Almost always. I mean, except for 2020. Yeah, except for 2022 when there were really severe lockdowns during COVID.

but usually when China sets a target, it hits it. Now, how it does this is once it announces this goal, everyone moves in lockstep to try to achieve this goal. And let's say it's falling short. The government will then come up with something to juice the economy. Like when consumption was faltering, they came up with a program that's sort of like the cash for clunkers, which is essentially like 15, 20 percent discount subsidized by the government

to upgrade your old fridges or your cell phones. There is, of course, a lot of debate about the reliability, of Chinese data and also whether GDP is really a good measure of economic activity. Because an economics professor, David Lee from Tenghua University, once told me there's a classic joke in China where a local official will come and say, let's build a road. The next official comes along and says, no, I don't like it. I don't like how it's built. Like, let's redo it.

And every step of the way, that counts towards GDP. But it doesn't necessarily add value. GDP shows us how the economy is doing on average. average. It's a very broad measure. And some sectors, you know, do better than others. And so what does the economy look like for China right now as you're drilling down into certain sectors? It's very much a two-track economy. So domestically, like I mentioned, consumption is a bit sluggish, but exports, they're booming. China's not just manufacturing small goods. It's also manufacturing, you know, very high-tech products, drones, cars. So somehow,

Despite all of the tit-for-tat tariffs with the U.S., China's trade surplus still hit a record $1.2 trillion last year. Now, the International Monetary Fund says China cannot keep relying on exports to drive its economy because it says it's trading partners. They're really being hurt by this. We've seen the U.S. and Europe, for example, really hammering hard at Chinese exporters. The IMF, though, has very much encouraged China recently to prioritize consumption-led growth. But like we said, it's very difficult because, you know, when I was speaking to young people, whether they're in Beijing or Shanghai, without prompting, they bring up the fact that they're either not thinking about marriage or they don't want to get married or have a family. And that, by extension, means that they're not going to be looking for the apartments near the good school. It means they're not going to furnish that apartment with household appliances and furniture.

They might not even get a car. Right. And this is a challenge because, as you mentioned, the IMF wants more of China's economic growth to be led by consumption. In other words, an increase in gross domestic product should come more from people buying fridges and couches and not from, say, exports or investment. So what is a typical growth rate for China? Yeah. I mean, in the past, like, decades ago, we were looking at double-digit growth. But in the last, you know, five years, I'd say it's more about 5%. What's that number in context for China, 5% growth rate?

Well, okay. So remember we go back to how the economy is mixed and they need to set a goal. So this goal kind of works towards a target of 2035. That's when President Xi Jinping says China needs to achieve socialist modernization. It sounds super vague, but state media have actually put a number to it. They're going to have to grow on average over 4% a year. So this is something that China has to fulfill because that's how they gain their legitimacy from the populace without elections. And Beijing also has a five-year economic plan. What does that look like?

This is going to be an economic blueprint for China's economy until 2030. It comes down to two things. China's going to double down on industrial manufacturing and also tech innovation, especially when it comes to self-sufficiency because tensions with the U.S. has shown that, you know, the U.S. wants to cut off their semiconductors and high-end technology from it, so it needs to rely on its own. Now, that's very good for the national security part of China, but the big question that I have is, what does that mean for jobs? Because those two industries are not creating human jobs. And honestly, when I talk to people in the street, job anxiety is, you know, at the top of their list of anxiety. And by the way, it's not a lack of jobs in China. It's really the

jobs that pay well, okay, that's lacking. So this year we're looking at another record 12 million graduates. That's going to be very tough. They're looking at double-digit unemployment rates and they're being now told, hey, you should be happy with a mediocre job and maybe you can even go back to the factories. Yeah. What is the term for lying flat? Is that the phrase that's used for kind of this middle ayes or this ennui that the younger generation gets accused of having? Sure, in Chinese is called Tang Ping, which literally means laying flat. But I have to say, I think it's a mischaracterization because the average work week in China is still, I think, is like 48 hours a week. That's well above, I think in the U.S. it's like 34 hours, okay? So while people say they are Tang Ping or laying flat, really it might mean I'm not going to do 12 hours a day. I might do 10 hours a day. Yes, stick it to the man. Well, thanks very much, and I hope to have you back in the show soon.

Oh, absolutely. Thank you so much. This is fun. That is Jennifer Pack, NPR's China correspondent. The National People's Congress starts today, and you can follow Jennifer's coverage here on NPR. This episode was produced by Cooper Katz McKim and engineered by Jimmy Keely. It was fact-checked by Angel Coreras. Kate Kinan is our editor and The Indicator is a production of NPR.