The Indicator from Planet Money - What would it mean to actually refund the tariffs?

Episode Date: December 2, 2025

Tariffs are bringing in some serious cash into the US Treasury’s pocket. The problem with that money is that it may need to be refunded. A case in front of the Supreme Court could declare several of Trump’s tariffs illegal, which would prompt a return of billions of dollars. Today on the show, we look at how that would work and why the process will likely not be easy. Related episodes: Three ways companies are getting around tariffsDays of our tariffsFor sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

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I'm Daryan Woods. And I'm Stephen Besaha. Tariffs are burning a hole in the U.S. Treasury's pocket. They brought in nearly $200 billion this past fiscal year, which wrapped up in September. And the Trump administration has put out different ideas for what to do with all that money. There is the boring fiscally responsible answer, helping pay down the national debt. And the flashy option. Checks for Americans, as much as $2,000.

maybe signed by a certain president? Trump says let's do both. But there is a problem with any plan to spend that tariff cash. There is a good chance the U.S. government will have to give a lot of it back. That is because of a case in front of the Supreme Court. As you probably know, it's considering declaring several Trump's tariffs illegal, which would mean returning billions of dollars. Today on the show, we look at who would get the money

and why it might not be so easy for them to get it. If you're an American importer, this year you've probably been spending a lot of time emailing your lawyer. And that lawyer might just be Ted Murphy. Ted is a partner with the global law firm Sidley Austin. What's your inbox boom looking like lately? It's crazy. It's crazy. And it's been crazy since actually before November last year,

since before the election. But certainly since then, it's only gotten crazier. What's the main question people are asking right now? Really, the main question is, where is this going? That is a question I think we all have of tariffs. Yeah, it is a good question. But, you know, lately the questions in Ted's inbox have been a little more optimistic.

There are a lot of optimistic clients based on the Supreme Court's oral argument. I'd be very curious as to what the Supreme Court's numbers were on listening to that oral argument. I'm sure it was, there was pretty well attended. Quick recap here. Historically, it's been Congress, not the president setting tariffs. To get around that, Trump has been relying on a really broad view of an emergency powers law. The justices are deciding whether that's too broad and gives the president too much power. And if they do, that could be the end of Trump's favorite tariff tool.

It could also mean returning all the money collected using those emergency powers. But tempier expectations. for a check here, you probably won't get a refund for that imported bidet or ironing bought your ordered off Amazon. The money will go back to the person who paid for the tariff, which raises the question. Who pays the tariff? The technical answer is the importer of record, right? The party that is importing the products into the United States. More often than not, that's a U.S. company. Now, you can get into a larger question of like, who bears the economic cost of that tariff, which is a slightly different question.

Yeah, the cost of that ironing board was probably passed down to the consumer through higher prices. But it's the importer who would get that refund, which often isn't the customers themselves. The importer of record is often the actual company doing the buying, like Home Depot or Walmart or a middleman company handling all the logistics. So if I'm in importer and I see one day the Supreme Court has gotten rid of the reciprocal tariffs. Do I just sit back and be like, okay, that money's going to show back up on my bank account, or do I need to do something about it? Yeah, I would recommend against sitting back and just

waiting for the refund check to roll in. I am willing to say, with some certainty, it will not be an automatic refund process to anyone who paid the tariffs. Now, there are some goods, Ted believes, could get an automatic refund under the system we have now. When an importer brings in that ironing board, it's up to them to estimate what taxes and fees they owe. If they choose to, Customs has the option to review that amount. It has about a 10-month window to do that. If the agency says the importer paid too little, they get a bill. Too much, they get a refund.

Ted says the same easy, automatic process already in place could be used for tariffs. Which means the importer of record of your ironing board should get a check. Cool. In that case, I can sit back and just wait for that to show my money. bank account. If you were the importer, yeah, if you were the importer of record, that, again, that's what I think should happen. Now, whether the government agrees that that's what they'll do, you know, we'll have to see. What level of confidence do you have in that? Yeah, I don't know. I'm not sure I would say it's overwhelming. Remember, we are in new territory

here with tariffs, both legally and in scale. So lawyers like Ted are giving best guidance based on the limited precedents. If the government doesn't send out those refunds, importers have a backup option. And it's one they've always had when they disagree with how much customs says they owe. The importers can file a protest. And Ted says here there is precedent. Protests happened well before the new tariff era, which is a good thing for importers wanting their money back.

You're in a very established sort of process, right? Customs is doing that every week and has been for, you know, decades and decades. So you would be optimistic that post decision, you would be weeks away from getting a refund, not months away. There is one thing that could complicate all of this, and that is President Trump has talked about tariff rebate checks for Americans. So if those goes, go out, will that make getting refunds to importers much harder because

the money is gone? I don't think so. It's just, it's like the COVID. checks. It's just coming out of general funds, I guess. Yeah, there's not a dollar that sign that said for tariffs and then that's the one that's getting sent back to people.

Yeah, that's not. Yeah, exactly. Any last advice for those optimistic importers in your box? It's certainly possible the government doesn't make obtaining a refund easy. They might make it onerous.

And the best way to do it is to try to make you or an importer prove how much you paid. So you want to make sure you have your records. There's a government website importers can get that data from. But who knows how that website will do when there's a flood of importers or wanting their money back. Ted says importers should be proactive now,

so they're at the front of that potential refund line, not at the back. No one should be sitting back really waiting for checks to roll in. Like, it's just not a, that's not the world. I mean, we live in. We need to stay on top of it and make sure that that happens. Assuming those importers get that money back, it would be a big win for them. Just not a big win for the paying off of the country's $38 trillion national debt.

And it probably really do much for consumers. Companies may have passed along some of those tariff prices already, but I wouldn't bet on them passing along those checks. This episode was produced by Cooper Katz McKin. and engineer by Casey Lee. It was fact-checked by Sierra Wades. Cake and Cannon is our editor, The Indicator is a production of NPR.

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