The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - 10 Games that will shape the rest of the College Football Season

Episode Date: October 8, 2025

Fox Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt lists the 10 games that will shape the rest of the season in CFB. He considers which games will have the most impact on the chases for Conference Championships and the College Football Playoff. He kicks things off with this weekend’s Oklahoma-Texas Red River matchup that will have major ripple effects on the SEC. He points out the Notre Dame game that will likely decide whether the Irish get back to the Playoff. Klatt also picks the Big 12 game that will play a huge role in whether the conference gets multiple Playoff bids. He also explains why the Big Ten schedule in November is loaded with monster matchups that could lead to a new contender emerging in the conference and breaks down the potential stakes for this year’s edition of The Game between Ohio State and Michigan. Klatt wraps up the show by wishing Coach Prime well as he goes through a medical procedure. Chapters 0:00-2:13 Intro2:14-2:40 10 games that will shape the rest of the season2:41-4:27 Oklahoma vs. Texas4:28-6:42 USC vs. Notre Dame6:43-8:27 Tennessee vs. Alabama8:28-10:16 Texas Tech vs. Arizona State10:17-12:37 Texas A&M vs. LSU12:38-14:05 Penn State vs. Ohio State14:06-15:33 Indiana vs. Penn State15:34-17:33 Oklahoma vs. Alabama17:34-18:31 Texas vs. Georgia18:32-22:40 Ohio State vs. Michigan22:41-25:53 Coach Prime news Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Are you hearing this? The Chipotle rumor could be true. Marcus Freeman and the Golden Domas, I think this is going to be the most difficult test. This is do or die for Penn State. OU is basically the grenade of the SEC. If OU is real, they're going to just start eliminating teams one by one. They've won the last four against Ohio State. Are they playing for a spot in the playoff when we get there? Daylight today is why we love college football.

Hey, welcome into the program, everybody. I'm Joel Clatt. This is the Joel Clatt show, and this show is brought to you by the graduate by Hilton. We thank them for their support, as always. Love staying in the graduates on all these weekend trips to cover and call all these college football games. We've got a lot to get into today, so let's get right into it. Listen, if you haven't subscribed to the show, go ahead and do so. We're up over $250,000 on our way to $300,000.

Let's make it happen, invite a friend. That would be awesome. And then follow us on social media, wherever you like to social media. We're out there. our content is available in shorter form. At Joel Clat Show is where you can find us out there. I really am looking forward to this exercise. I know I teased it on Monday Show.

If you didn't go and listen to Monday's show, please go do so. By the way, I was down in the comments of Monday's show, and I know people were upset with maybe, you know, like I was defending Arch Manning. Just listen to the episode. Like, that's all I would ask is that just listen to the whole thing because clearly wasn't.

But that's how it goes in this, line will work. So here we go. What we're going to do today, and actually this is a repeat because I went through 10 of the most important games in the whole schedule back before we started the regular season. So in the offseason, we did one of these episodes where I said, hey, these 10 games are going to shape the college football playoff. Well, now it's obviously a lot more clear picture, even though it's been a wild ride thus far with three of the top four teams in the AP top 10 to start the year now, totally unranked. Yeah, it's been a wild ride. It's been a wild ride. It's been a wild ride. I'm wild year. So now let's look at 10 games moving forward from this point on that are really going to

shape the season. And now we can really zero in on some of these matchups that are going to be massive down the stretch. So here's the 10 most important, meaningful, impactful games toward the playoff picture remaining in the season. We're going to go in chronological order here. So it's not a ranking 1 to 10. It's just chronological order starting this week, this Saturday, Red River. Oklahoma, Texas. This one's going to be massive. Obviously for Texas, they're already on the bubble. Their back is against the wall. They lose to Ohio State to begin the year.

Obviously, last weekend's loss in the swamp at Florida, disastrous. Offensive line played bad. The quarterback played bad for Texas. And now they're behind the eight ball. And Oklahoma is the team that is the undefeated top 10, top five team with maybe their quarterback coming back. Are you hearing this? The Chipotle rumor could be true. John Mateer pushing to get back on the field, I can't wait to see how that all plays out.

But from a Texas perspective, this one's obvious. This one is a must win for them in Red River from preseason number one. If they lose this game, they'll be out of the playoff picture. I don't think they have enough left on their schedule to get themselves, obviously, back to Atlanta or even back in the mix. Because as we know, folks, nine and three is likely not going to cut it. I know everybody wants to talk about some of these schedules that are so difficult. there are a few that are very difficult with a lot of ranked opponents left on them.

But when we get down to it, and it's a bottom line business, do we really think 9 and 3 is going to get into the college football playoff? I doubt it. I think it's an outside, outside chance for a team like maybe OU, maybe, but it certainly would not be available for Texas. So they have to win. Oklahoma, they can make a huge statement with this win, even though Texas is struggling. I can't wait to see if Mitya plays. And this is going to really set up the whole back half the season for each of these teams in an obvious way. So that's the first game, Red River, this Saturday down in Dallas.

Next week, October 18th, week 8 in the college football season, USC at Notre Dame. This one's going to be massive. Now, I know USC plays Michigan this week, but regardless of outcome in that game, those two teams would largely still be alive because they would only have a second loss, and they've got enough left on their schedule, in particular with Michigan playing Ohio State late, and USC having Notre Dame on the schedule, plus a trip to Eugene later in the year, where if, even unlikely, but if they were to win out, they would probably be fine. But this one is most important.

Why? Because USC could really set themselves up for a stretch run where they're competing for a playoff spot, and Notre Dame is in the same boat that Texas is in where they can't afford a loss. So Lincoln Riley is sitting here, and I know that that was a disappointing loss to Illinois. I get it. They were confident going into that game. They had some injuries up front. Their safety, Camari Ramsey doesn't play.

They lose the game in close fashion. But everything is still ahead of them. They've got Michigan in their house this week. And then this one is the monster, though. And that's why it's one of the 10 games that I think is going to shape the season. Every game is an elimination game for Notre Dame, every single one. Look at what they've got going on. And this is the one that I point out because for Marcus Freeman and the Golden Domas, I think this is going to be the most difficult test of all the tests throughout the back half of this season. October 18th, they host USC.

They're going to have at Boston College. Boston College is one and four. They play Navy, and yeah, Navy's undefeated, but remember, they handled Navy last year 5114. They go to Pitt. Maybe that's a pit fall, pun intended, obviously. but Pitt is three and two. Syracuse is three and three. Stanford is two and three. It's not a terribly difficult last five games, so this USC game next weekend is vital for them.

One, they've already got the two losses, and two, they're going to need to put on a good performance, maybe even from a beauty pageant perspective, in terms of getting in as a 10 and 2. So that one's going to be massive right there, and that's week eight. By the way, lots of week eight games on this list. weekend is going to be a massive weekend as it relates to the college football playoff.

Another one next weekend. Tennessee at Alabama. This one's going to be a monster. Beware right now the Vols lurking. Their only loss is that overtime loss to Georgia. They played well enough to win that game, had a field goal to win it at the end. Josh Heipple has done an incredible job. Joey Aguilar has been a great fit for them. Love their wide receivers on the outside. They've done a heck of a job this year. They've only like I said, got that one loss and a win would put them right in the playoff picture. Tennessee's toughest remaining games, not an easy schedule by any stretch, but their toughest remaining would be this game at Alabama, who is now a top 10 team. They're hosting Oklahoma. That's a monster, obviously.

They've got to go down to Florida, and that's obviously a game where anything can happen because of the inconsistencies of the Florida Gators. And then they've got Vandy on November 29th. Those are kind of the big games for Tennessee, can they get to 10 and 2? You know, I mean, listen, if they were able to beat Alabama in that game, that would go a long way. And then Alabama will either really solidify their spot as a favorite in the SEC or they're going to be right on the bubble after that game. So a massive game for Kalin DeBore, Ty Simpson. I still think that they're going to need to get more out of their run game so that they're not so reliant

on their passing game. If you get into these matchups, and this one's obviously at home, so that would favor them because they're not quite as good on the road. They've got to go on the road here to Missouri this week. But Bama is right there. It's right there. And that game is going to go a long way for Bama hosting Tennessee next week on week eight. Another week eight game, October 18th. Texas Tech at Arizona State.

This one's going to be a monster. Tech can really separate itself in the Big 12 because you're starting. to see now there's only a few teams that are undefeated in the Big 12 in terms of conference play. You know, you've got Houston undefeated, or not Houston, excuse me. You've got BYU undefeated. They've got to play Utah coming up. They've got to play Texas Tech. So we'll see what happens with them.

But Arizona State is the sneaky one because remember they were the playoff team last year. So Joy McGuire and Texas Tech have a chance to really stamp this season if they could beat Kenny Dillingham's team at Arizona State. You know, Dillingham, they lose that game at Mississippi State earlier this year. And if they could get back in the driver's seat as an undefeated in-conference beating what we now think is the favorite, well, they'd be right there again. So again, this one is going to tell us everything we need to know about the Big 12, the Big 12 favorite, which we think is Texas Tech, if Arizona State is going to put themselves back onto that level,

and whether this conference could potentially get a second team. Also in Week 8, by the way, Utah and BYU. So everything's going to shake out Week 8 in the Big 12. That's a huge one, but that Texas Tech Arizona State game, that's the one we'll really know. We'll really have a quality understanding of what Tech can do to finish this season, put themselves in a position to be in the college football playoff. Again, I'm a big believer in Texas Tech. That's a good football team.

It's a really good football team. They're good in a lot of different areas. And we'll see, that game is, by the way, on Fox. All right, we move on. Week 9. Okay, so now we're to October 25th. And this one is, I think, a game that if it goes A&M's way and they beat LSU. I'm talking about Texas A&M at.

LSU. A win in this game for A&M buys them some serious breathing room for the CFP, one, and for potentially getting themselves to Atlanta and playing for the SEC championship. Mike Elko has done a fabulous job. I've been saying this ever since he got hired, folks, is that he is a good fit at A&M. He understands the culture, which is incredibly unique. He's a good football coach. They've been getting better and better and better on the defensive side to the point where the last two weeks, they've played suffocating defense in SEC play. I like their quarterback, Marcel Reed. I really love Craver, Concepcion on the outside. This is a dangerous team. If they were to go to LSU and beat LSU, that would tell us everything we need to know about their

prospects and really likely put them in. Their percentage to get in would go way up. I would say it would be in the 70, 75% in the CFP, even if they weren't to get to Atlanta at that point. They're toughest games after that one, at Missouri, at Texas to finish the season, and who knows what Texas looks like at that point, you know, Texas, kind of like Penn State, they could fall off and who knows what happens to them. They could lose to Oklahoma. That could be a three-and-three team all of a sudden. So we'll see what happens there.

LSU, by the way, could very well be six and one and in the top ten when this game comes around. have forgotten about them because of that loss to Ole Miss. So Brian Kelly could get himself back in the mix. A loss, there's probably time to get them back in the playoff push, but this one would put them right back in maybe even a driver's seat mode to, again, get to Atlanta. I still am a firm believer. You get to Indianapolis and play for the Big Ten championship.

You get to Atlanta, play for the SEC championship. You're going to be in. And so, you know, an LSU team that could potentially beat Texas A&M, again, this one is at home. That would be, that would be massive for LSU. All right, we move on. Week 10, November 1st, this one is an obvious Penn State at Ohio State. My goodness, just like Texas, they have to win out. Penn State has to win out, which means that James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have got to go to Ohio State and do something that they have just never done.

before. One, beat Ohio State there. And two, for James in particular, ever since 2016, win a game against the top 10 team. Ohio State's not going to go anywhere until that point. This is do or die for Penn State. All of those expectations. Pre-season, some people, including me and some of the polls that I put out in the preseason, I had Penn State at number one. They start the season at number two in the AP poll. And again, just like Texas, which could be over after this week with Red River, we can be talking about the 1st of November, day after Halloween, Penn State basically being eliminated. That would be wild with the expectations that we had coming in to this season. And, you know, depending on what Ohio State is able to do the rest of

this month in October, there's a good chance that Ohio State will be an undefeated number one team in the country. So that would be won a huge test, but also, if they were able to get it done, they would be right back in it, right back in it, which leads us to the next game on the list, which is the next week, week 11, November 8th, Indiana at Penn State. Now, this is also massive because regardless of what happens for Penn State against Ohio State, this one's going to be a massive one for Indiana. Now, we're going to see a huge game this week for Indiana as they travel to Eugene and play Oregon. Regardless of that outcome, though, this one would be the real ticket for Indiana. If Kurt Signetti wants to make a second straight CFP, I think they

have to beat Penn State on the road. Now, could they get in if they don't and they're a 10 and 2? Yes, but I do think that they're going to be in a resume battle and that resume because of the non-conference is not going to look fantastic, even though I think that's a really good team. A really good team. The win over Illinois is going to continue to look, I think, really solid. The 53-point win over Illinois should carry the day, but that's going to be a massive game for Indiana, okay? I think that Indiana's got a real opportunity in one of those two games.

They win one of those two games, they're going to be in. They're going to be in. And this is the one that I'm kind of pointing to by far the most important one for Indiana. They can go out there. We've already seen Penn State lose at home to Oregon. And they can go out there. And even if they just put an incredible effort, I think that they would be building that playoff resume pretty solidly.

All right, we move on. Week 12, November 15th. This one's a huge one in the SEC. Oklahoma at Alabama. Good chance that these two teams have... Two losses based on their schedules. And I know, listen, OU fans are going to hate that I said that. But there's some tough games coming up.

You don't know exactly how healthy John Mateer is. And he's so vital and so important to their success on the offensive side, the defense will have to play incredible, which they have so far. That's, I think, largely the second best defense in college football up to this point. Their defensive line has been outstanding, outstanding. But you look at the schedule, they say they have Ole Miss in between then. You know, they have Texas this week. They've got some tough games.

You look at Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, all before that Bama game. Let's just say hypothetically, Mateer's not totally right, and they lose a couple games. Well, then here we go. Now you're going to go to Alabama, and at this point, OU is basically the grenade of the SEC. You see, if OU is real, they're going to. going to just start eliminating teams one by one, Texas, maybe Tennessee, in this case, maybe Alabama at this point, maybe Missouri later in the year, maybe LSU. But if they don't, and they start, like in these six games that we're showing you here on YouTube, if they just

start splitting all of those and they go three and three in this one and they finish as a nine and three, they could be knocking themselves and everybody else out. So OU is kind of a linchpin team for the college football playoff the rest of the way. And they're kind of the grenade right there. But this one is, I think, really important, this Alabama game. Because Alabama, again, they could be fighting for their playoff lives at this point. And we might be watching an elimination game as OU travels to Alabama on November 15th. So that's week 12.

Also in week 12, November 15th. Texas is at Georgia. Now, is Texas just a spoiler? or are we in an elimination game at this point? This could be a dangerous game for Georgia, who may be sitting on two losses at that point based on the schedule that they've got in front of them. So again, a lot can happen still in the SEC,

which right now, I would argue, doesn't have a great team, but they have a lot of good teams. If they start just beating each other up, are they going to knock everybody off? Or are we going to have a couple of teams separate and get themselves into a position where they're clearly in this college football playoff? Again, I find it fascinating.

this idea of like, does Texas grow, get better and become a great team? Or are they just a team that's really talented that is definitely out that is in the role of spoiler the rest of the season? We'll have to wait and see, but that game is going to be a massive game as Texas goes to Georgia on November 15th. Week 14, the last one on the list. November 29th, Ohio State at Michigan. the game. Now, Ohio State could be the number one team in the country, but as we know, Michigan does not care

what Ohio State looks like before they face off against each other. My question is, what is Michigan when they get there? Do they win this weekend against USC on the road? Maybe. I think that's an incredible game and matchup. Those two teams, I actually think, are pretty evenly matched. Obviously, different styles, but pretty evenly matched. Sheron Moore has a team that is young, They're developing. I think that they've got a lot of talent. There's no doubt, but they've got to develop. They didn't play great against Wisconsin last weekend.

Their quarterback needs to continue to get better, Bryce Underwood, but they can run it. They can play quality defense. They're active. They're physical. And as we know, they've won the last four against Ohio State. Are they playing for a spot in the playoff when we get there? Even if they were to trip up this weekend, let's just say sake of argument, they lose to USC, and then they went out, and they're sitting there.

and nine and two against Ohio State. Even if Ohio State is in with a loss, Michigan could be playing for a playoff spot at that point. And in fact, I really believe that Michigan will have no more than two losses when they get to the game on that Thanksgiving weekend. And then they'll be hosting Ohio State with a chance to go to the playoff. That scene will be incredible. And I cannot wait for it.

There's no doubt. So just to recap, I want to list these games off one more time. The 10 games in chronological order. This weekend, Red River, Oklahoma, and Texas in Dallas. Will Mateer play? We don't know. Week 8, October 18th, USC at Notre Dame. Massive.

Massive game, obviously, Notre Dame back against the wall. Also week 8, October 18th. This is a huge weekend, folks. Tennessee at Alabama. Tennessee quietly right now sitting there with a great chance, in particular with a win in Tuscaloosa, to put themselves in position not only play for the SEC championship, but get themselves into the playoff.

And will Alabama be solidifying their spot or will they be knocked out at that point? Also week 8, October 18th, Tech at Arizona State. So Texas Tech at Arizona State. Tech's got a real chance to separate themselves in the Big 12. That weekend, by the way, also in the Big 12, Utah at BYU. So we're going to find out a lot about that conference, whether we might get a second team or if it's just kind of the champion that's going get in from that league. Week 9, October 25th, A&M at LSU, not hearing a lot about LSU, but they're

still sitting there with only one loss. Hosting A&M at that point, and A&M could be in a position to really solidify their place in Atlanta in the SEC championship game, or LSU could be placing themselves firmly in the playoff mix. Week 10, November 1st, Penn State at Ohio State, do or die for the Nittany Lions and James Franklin. Week 11, November 8th, Indiana could be putting themselves right into that CFP. If they were to beat Penn State, knock Penn State out at that point with a third loss or Penn State's running the table and getting themselves back to a 10 and 2 and in. So that one's a massive one. Week 12, November 15th, Oklahoma at Alabama, we know that one's going to be huge. And again, I would just reiterate, if you really look at the SEC schedule,

the grenade is Oklahoma. They're either going to blow up the whole thing and start splitting everything or they're just going to knock people out. Bang, bang, bang, because they play all of these teams that are contenders moving on throughout the rest of the season. Week 12, November 15th, Texas at Georgia, really interested to see if Texas can get it together, whether they're just going to be a spoiler or at that point they're playing for their lives at that point. And then November 29th, Ohio State at Michigan, I do think Michigan at that point is playing for their playoff life and they have a chance with a win. It would be their fifth in a row if they were able to beat Ohio State, but they would be playing for a chance to get themselves into the

college football playoffs. So those are the 10 games right there. Now, some other news in college football, and this one is like, it's tough news. There's no doubt. But Coach Prime, Dion Sanders had another procedure on Tuesday. And he had talked after the TCU game last week, which was a really good game, by the way. Colorado turned the football over. Caden Salter, their quarterback, turned it over too many times, in particular in the first half. And Colorado was unable to win that game, Hoover was great late for TCU as they're trying to bounce back after that lost to ASU. But after the game, Coach Prime talked about having pain and he believed that he was experiencing more blood clots in his legs, obviously a scary thing.

And in the offseason, if you didn't know, he was diagnosed with bladder cancer and he had his bladder removed. And so dealing with a ton of health issues. And I would just say from all of us, and certainly, you know, that pro. program and coach, more specifically, holds a real dear spot in my heart. So I'm just, I'm rooting for Coach Prime. I'm going to be continued to pray for Coach Prime. I hope that this is a procedure that went well. We'll know more, obviously, later in the week once this episode airs. I just would love to see him get healthy enough to experience and enjoy what he describes

as his calling, which he has told us right here on this show. We had a couple of Big Noon conversations with him. Those are, by the way, still in the vault here on the YouTube channel. You can go back and you can watch all the Big Noon conversations, but specifically the two with Coach Prime that we had. And he talked about coaching college football as his legacy and as his calling. And so for me, I just, I pray for him that everything is going to be okay, that he can get healthy so that he can experience and enjoy his calling

as he said to us during the course of those interviews. So, Coach, we're rooting for you. We'll be praying for you. Hope that you get well and you get well very, very quickly. Listen, can't tell you how much I appreciate all of you for listening to this show, continuing to allow this show to grow. Love when all of you who listen to this show see me out during the course of the weekend. You come up and give a shout out.

Listen, I love being able to chat with you for the moments, whether it's on a concourse or somewhere throughout college football. I will be in Illinois this weekend as Ohio State travels to play Illinois for Big Noon Saturday. Big Noon kickoff will also be there. It's a big Saturday on Fox. So can't wait for that. And listen, college football is amazing.

I'm going to say things that you disagree with. But one thing that none of us are going to disagree with is that this sport is awesome. And it's going to be an incredible back half of the season as evidence. these 10 games that are going to shape the college football playoff. This expanded playoff was amazing last year, and it's going to be maybe even better this year as we have more parity and more teams fighting for these playoffs spots. So thank you for listening.

Subscribe to the show. Go follow us on social media at Joel Clatchell. We'll be back tomorrow with picks and previews for all of this weekend's games. Have a good day.