The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Are USC, Oklahoma, Michigan and other Top 10 teams on upset alert this week?

Episode Date: September 22, 2022

FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt takes a look at some of the matchups from this weekend and breaks down why he thinks this week is a "prove it" week for some of the top ranked teams in college football. He looks at Maryland vs. Michigan, Wisconsin vs. Ohio State, USC vs Oregon State and others, and reveals the areas where he thinks the favorites in the game could get tripped up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You have your own podcast. Well, yes. So we got the audio for the podcast out there. You know, folks, I appreciate that, Gus. By the way, go download and subscribe to the podcast. Everybody, that Joel Clashio. And there we go. Look at that.

Look at that. Who are you? The podcast. Who are you, Howard Stern? The King of All Media. My favorite part about that interaction with Gus was his laugh. He was laughing about. the little opening I had to talk about the podcast on the game last weekend, which was awesome.

Welcome in, everybody, Joel Clat Show. I'm Joel Clat. Good to be with you, and here we go. We have got games to break down for this week. It's week four in college football, and I can't wait, because I've got some upsets that are brewing in my mind, and I'm going to talk about them today. some of them I'll be almost upsets and then I've got a couple that are just full-fledged. If you haven't listened to this week's episodes, go back and listen to them. Remember to download the show, leave a review, blah, blah, blah, all that stuff.

Wednesday, we had some really good stuff on Michigan, Georgia, as well as I fixed the non-conference slate in college football. Please go check that one out because it's one of those things that when you hear my plan for the non-conference scheduling in college football, you're going to be like, yes, of course, we should absolutely do that in college football. So go check that out. On this episode, though, here are the games I want to break down. I've got six top 10 teams that need to be careful this weekend. This is going to be a prove-it weekend in college football. And I love these types of it.

See, we get lulled into being like, okay, this team's going to be undefeated at this point. This team's going to be undefeated at this point. And the bottom line is, teams get tripped up. And this type of prove-it weekend is one of the things I love about college football. So here are the games that we're about to break down. Wisconsin at Ohio State, Maryland at Michigan, Clemson at Wake Forest, K-State at Oklahoma, USC at Oregon State and Arkansas versus Texas A&M in Arlington at AT&T Stadium and Jerry's World. Really good games, by the way.

And I'm stoked for these. And you should be as well because I think that we're finally going to see some of these teams tested. Michigan looking at you. Michigan's non-conference opponents, by the way, so far, cumulative 0 and 9 this year. So what do we know about Michigan? Not much. Let's start with that game. Michigan hosting Maryland.

My thoughts on this game are I want to see how Michigan deals with adversity. Blake Corum yesterday in his press conference, about the fact that he doesn't know how good his team is, in part because they haven't faced adversity. You don't know as a team what you're going to be until you face adversity. And Michigan has not faced that yet. They've won every single one of these games by 50 plus points. They've scored over 50. Now, they're doing what they should do. And I talked about this on Wednesday's episode. It's showing me some maturity. It's showing me that they know how to handle their business. but what is it showing me on the field remains to be seen.

In fact, there's some major question marks. The biggest question mark I have for Michigan is about their defense. How are they replacing those great players that they had a year ago? How are they replacing their coordinator, Mike McDonald, from a year ago? So far, it's been good. But listen, what do we draw from Colorado, State, Hawaii, and Yukon? Virtually nothing. their defense is built for production tackles and then the ability of the secondary to tackle in space and to cover well, because at times they're going to be left on an island.

So that's what they're going to be tested with this week. I firmly believe that their defense is going to be put into a position where they feel and are stressed for the first time this year. And I can't wait to see that happen. to see them have to deal with that. Can you present pressure on the quarterback when you have to? Not just because like, oh, you know, every snap we're going to get back there. No, no, no, no. It's a big snap.

Crowds into it. Can you get pressure on Tongue Vaila? We'll see. We'll see because they don't have the individual pass rusher that we saw last year in Aidan Hutchinson or even his counterpart on the other side of the line of scrimmage, David Ajabo. guess the other side of the line from him. They don't have those guys. They feel like they have a core that is good and can replace the production, not that

any one player is as good, but that they can replace the production. Remember, 14 players so far from Michigan have what I would call production tackles. That's either tackles for loss or sacks. I do know that their offense is going to be good. Their offense is going to put up points. There's a reason that they're 17-point favorites, according to Fox bet, and I think that they should be because their offense is really good. I can't wait to see them actually feel some stress and pressure on that side of the ball as well.

A big third down. How does McCarthy react to some pressure in his face? Is you going to put the ball in harm's way? Because that's one thing that McNamara didn't do a year ago. But the questions really remain on the defensive side. They're going to face a team this week in Maryland that will pressure their secondary. Maryland has one of the best core of wide receivers in all of college football. and it goes very much under the radar.

Remember Dante Deimos, he got hurt last year. I think he only played in four or five games. I think he got hurt in that Iowa game, if I'm not mistaken. And it was a horrific injury. You hated to see it. Hated to see it because he's such a good player. And in fact, he was doing incredible work last year up until the point that he got hurt. Now, he's back and he's healthy.

So what is he? Now, J. Sean Jones stepped up and played well for a couple games. he went down last year. Now he's back. So he only played in six games a year ago. The guy that in their absence stepped up and played well and became kind of their number one wide receiver is Rakim Jarrett. Then they got a transfer as well, Jacob Copeland. They go four deep in what a lot of programs would call number one wide receivers.

Or at worst, number two wide receivers. I think Dante Demas is a number one wide receiver everywhere other than about four or five places in the country. And now he's back. And so all of a sudden you've got four legitimate threats on the outside for Maryland. You've got a quarterback that can pull the trigger. You've got an offense that understands how to move the football with a good offensive-oriented head coach and Mike Loxley. So now Michigan's defense will be stressed. And the people that will be stressed, we have never seen in this position, namely, and this is the name that you've got to look out for this weekend, folks, Mike Sain Rassil.

Mike St. Rousill was a wide receiver last year, and now he's filling in at Dax Hill's spot. Dax Hill was a draft pick, a nickelback. He was terrific in space in the slot as a man-to-man cover guy. Now, I've talked with a lot of people around the program this week, and they tell me, Mike St. Rissill has acquitted himself unbelievably well for a guy that just changed positions. I can't wait to see him because this is going to be real stress and real pressure. So what is Michigan? we're going to find out noon

Saturday. Gus Ginny and I will be there. Big noon kickoff will be there. Michigan, 17 point favorites. And for the first time this season, we're going to see what they actually are. All right, what's the next game? Wisconsin versus Ohio State. Okay, Wisconsin, Ohio State.

Here's why I love this game is because we also know that Ohio State is going to be great on offense. similar to Michigan. But what we don't know is how they'll deal with a team that wants to get into a phone booth and slug it out. We saw that game kind of play out against Notre Dame. And Ohio State, they answered the bell, yes, but they only scored 21 points. Now they go up against a Badger's team that you know is going to play great defense.

So if you're looking to see exactly how good Ohio State's offense is, this week is a prove it weak for that offense. Now, C.J. Stroud has been ridiculous, and those wide receivers are ridiculous. They're deep at running back. I love their offensive line. Should they be able to move the ball? Yes. But this is the best defense that they will have faced so far this season. It's a proof it week for them. I love Jim Leonard. You know that at any point that I can say the name Jim Leonard, the defensive coordinator for Wisconsin, I'm going to say it because I think he's one of the best defensive coordinators in the entire country. This is the 11th rank scoring defense in the country. I think that will continue to improve. And it should be noted that in their

one test this year, granted it was the first game of the season, but in their one test this year, Ohio State, who's supposed to be an offensive juggernaut, was held under 400 yards in that opener against Notre Dame. Now, why is that a big deal, Joel? Well, the last time they were held under 400 yards was actually the national championship game in the COVID year against Alabama. So it's been a long time, even in their loss to Michigan, even in their struggle against Nebraska. They're lost to Oregon. They still gained over 400 yards. This year, granted they won

the game, but we've seen them struggle on offense through periods of that game. Even in a game in which they didn't play great offensively against Penn State last year, they still gained over 400 yards. They did not against Notre Dame. Now it was close. I believe it was 395.

The last time they were held under that mark, COVID year, national championship, against Alabama. So is there an opening for a great defense? to potentially slow them down, make this a game. Because we do know that when they get into that style of game, they have gotten beat twice last year. Oregon, at home, Michigan, on the road.

So that's something to just keep in the back of your mind. Now, Stroud looks like he is on his way to New York as a Heisman finalist, potentially even the Heisman winner. He's playing that good. 11 touchdowns, no interceptions. Of the players in the country, that have not thrown an interception, he's got the most touchdowns, 11 of them. He's got unbelievable wide receivers.

The one thing that I'm looking at, though, is this Ohio State defense has given up some big plays. And every one of their games so far this year, they've given up a 50-plus yard touchdown, and now they're about to face a team that offensively isn't great, and we know that, but they have Braylon Allen. He's running it for over 100 yards per game. You know they're going to be tough. Ohio State favored by 19 at home. That's still a game that's a prove-it game.

That is still a game that is a prove-it game for the Buckeyes. And I can't wait to see how it all shakes out. All right. Next game. What do we got? Clemson versus Wake Forest. Okay. Clemson at Wake Forest.

Oh. Now, is Clemson's offense struggling to the point that they did in their first game? No. they've gotten back on track, namely the fact that Will Shipley has been able to run the football. It's still a team that only put up, I think, 13 at half last week. I mean, it's not a juggernaut. This is an offense that right now is 63rd in the country in total offense, and they're going to face a team in Wake Forest that has their quarterback back after that medical scare,

and they won 11 games last year. Wake Forest is no slouch. Wake Forest is so much better at home as they've been able to build their program up and get to this point where they're ranked. So they're ranked 21st. They're only a dog by seven and a half. And at home, you think to yourself like,

man, Clemson should be able to take care of business. Clemson's offense is not running away from anybody. And Wake Forest is 17 and 2 in their last 19 home games. I think this is a much tougher game for Clemson than people realize. it's going to be closer than people realize it could be low scoring. Clemson's offense is not running away for anyone. There's 63rd in total offense.

I still think there's going to be a time in this season where they've got to go to Clubnik because Uyungaleli, it's there's just, there's something off. When I watch their offense, it's his ability to process and get to things quickly is not there. There's not the conviction in operation that there should be from a guy that is now an experienced quarterback in college football, in particular with his talent level and with the skill set around him. That's still a really talented team. This is going to be a closer game than you realize. Clemson's going to be in what I would call a dog fight at Wake Forest. Again, Wake Forest 17 and 2 in their last 19 home games and Clemson favored by seven and a half. All right, next up.

Kansas State versus Oklahoma. Oh, I love this game. You know why Kansas State plays Oklahoma so well? There's history in this game. Granted, not against Bill Snyder, but this is where Brent Venables played. This is where he cut his teeth. It was where he started coaching was against K State.

K State, regardless of what they do the week before they play Oklahoma, always play Oklahoma well. A couple of years ago, we went in for the opener, and we watched, Gus and I watched Arkansas State beat Kansas State in Manhattan. The next week, we traveled to Norman to do Kansas State at Oklahoma. Kansas State won that game out of nowhere. Kansas State has won outright, two of the last three against Oklahoma. Now, this version of Oklahoma might be different,

and certainly what I saw last Saturday suggests that it's a different team, They're different on defense. I thought they were faster. They were much more structurally sound than coverage. They're getting a lot of production. Nobody has the production tackles that Oklahoma does in the country. Again, production tackles, meaning tackles for loss or sacks. They were getting after it.

Granted, it was against a Nebraska team that had the life totally sucked out of them in a coaching change week. But, man, I don't care who they were playing. They looked really good last week. So this is a different version of Oklahoma. But again, you can't ignore the history. K-State has won two of the last three outright. Oklahoma is favored by 12.5.

And I just keep going back. I keep going back to their history. And two years ago, when Arkansas State beat them, because last week, K-State lost to Tulane, and I don't think that's going to bother them. They're going to go in there. Not only have they won two of the last three, but last year they lost by only six.

you know, if you're looking at just history in this, I might take K-State. I might take those 12 and a half. Maybe it was fools gold. I don't know. Maybe Nebraska played the worst game that they've ever played and that we're all a little too high on Oklahoma. Maybe Oklahoma is a bit too high on themselves after last week.

I don't know. But I do know one thing. K-State plays them ridiculously well. They've won two of the last three. Their loss was by six. and their dogs by 12 and a half. I might take them in the points. I might take them in the points.

Oh, you, I like what you're doing. I really do. Go back and check out episode two of the podcast. This might be a game that they struggle with. Remember, they were down 3-0 to Kent State in the last series of the first half in their last home game. So watch out. Watch out for the Wildcats.

All right, next. Arkansas versus Texas A&M. Come on. Oh, folks, are you ready for this? Now, listen, I'm not, I'm not huge into the lines and over-unders and everything like that, but I will tell you, I scan them, and I got to this game. Arkansas, Texas A&M, neutral site, Jerry's World, AT&T Stadium, A&M, favored by two, with an over-under of 49.

I'm sorry. What? I gave it a double look. And I'm like, that doesn't make any sense at all. Do they know something I don't? And so I dug into it. And I'm starting to think to myself, hold on, hold on, hold on. This certainly isn't the A&M team that I've seen the last two weeks against

App State and Miami, a team that could not gain 200 yards against App State that could not gain 300 yards against Miami. This is surely not the team that hasn't even thrown for in, cumulative over the last two games, 250 yards. Again, in two games with a coach who's supposed to be offensive oriented with some of the best talent in the country, in particular at the skill positions.

Certainly, certainly this is not the team that is favored against Arkansas, top 10 team. Maybe they're just paying too much attention to the Bobby Petrino Bowl the week before, but this doesn't make any sense. And let me tell you why. Texas A&M is 12th right now, and the SEC stop in the run. They gave up 175 yards against Miami. They gave up 180 yards rushing against App State.

Ab State controlled the game on the ground so well that they had 40 minutes time of possession, and Texas A&M only snapped it about 40 times. I think it was 41 times in that game. Why? Because they couldn't stop them on the ground. Guess what Arkansas can do. Run the ball. This is the second best rushing.

team in the SEC, and they've had 200 yards on the ground in every single one of their games. Rahim Sanders is a guy that I really like. You think Coach Pittman doesn't have a great ground attack? You don't think that this is going to be a fast, low-scoring affair when A&M can't stop the run, and that's exactly what Arkansas wants to do. Meanwhile, on the other side, how do you beat A&M? You force the game into the passing game's hands, into the quarterback's hands. You take away their ability to run the football.

Guess who's the best rush defense in the SEC, Arkansas? Guess what they're going to do? Stop the rushing attack for Texas A&M, which means we're going to be sitting there with who? Max Johnson, Haynes King, and they're going to have to beat Arkansas in a neutral sight, throwing the ball? Wait, what?

Ain't him favored by two? That's crazy. Give me Arkansas all day long outright. Then the total? They say 49 on the total. Ladies and gentlemen, do you know that A&M in all of their games this year? And we're talking cupcakes, we're talking in those tight games, App State and Miami. Total points in A&M games, 88.

That's total over three games. And all of a sudden, the defensive-oriented Arkansas team that runs the ball against a defense that can't stop the run and the over-under is 49. The total is 49? I mean, Arkansas and the under all day long. Book it. Book it. I think Arkansas wins that game. I think that last week was a blip on the radar, and I think that they go out there and they win that game. This is a team that understands how to play tough. They understand how to play physical, and I think that they beat A&M. If A&M has to throw the ball to win, they will lose the game.

App State proved that. The game was put into the hands of the quarterback, and they could not succeed. Their passing game is not detailed enough. Their quarterbacks are not detailed enough. They don't throw the ball on time. They aren't accurate, and they don't protect well up front. That is a recipe for an Arkansas win. I'm calling it. Arkansas wins that one. I know they're higher ranked. Their 10th in the country. A&M is 23rd. But again, A&M favored. That is an upset all day long. Arkansas and give me the under. All right. Next. USC versus Oregon State. I love this game. This is a phenomenal game. Oregon State is quietly so sound.

All right. And I love what Jonathan Smith, their head coach, has done. up there. By the way, he's going to be in the conversation for all of the openings this year, whether it's Nebraska right now, whether it's Arizona State right now. Jonathan Smith is going to get looked at because of what he's doing at Oregon State. This is historically a place that USC does not go and play well. So they're on the road. They're six and a half point favorites. Last year, the Beavs were six and O at home.

That included a win over Washington and Utah, the Pac-12 champ. This is a team that plays really well at home. I don't think USC is going to be able to just roll up there and blow the doors off them with their offense. Now, they're probably going to score some points, but one of the reasons why USC has been able to be so effective is that while their defense is not stopping anybody, they're at least gaining some turnovers.

Their number one in the country and turnover margin have not turned the ball over, and they've gotten 10 takeaways. So you can make a lot of the country, a strong argument that if you as an opponent are just careful with the ball and you don't give it to them and you don't give that offense extra possessions that you're going to have a chance to win the game. And Oregon State, they're second in the PAC 12 and turnover margin and they've only turned the ball over three times. So this is a team that I don't think is going to beat themselves. They're well coached. They're tough at home. Six and O last year. Wins over

Washington. Went over Utah. This is not going to be an easy game for USC. In fact, I think this is going to be their most adversity that they face. It's not going to be easy for them. And you never know. The last time I saw Caleb Williams in real adversity, it was at Baylor, a game that Gus and I called late last year for Oklahoma, and he did not play well. He did not play well. They faced adversity. It was either the week before or two weeks before against Iowa State. He did not play well then either. We've seen him in some pressure-packed situations, and I don't count the bowl game as pressure-packed because that's still an exhibition. He has not played well in big moments.

Now this is going to be a big moment. There's all sorts of expectations on USC from in part guys like me who have said, hey, this might be a playoff year. And it might. And it might. I'm just telling you, they don't have room for air on their offense. If they turn it over and don't get turnovers, if they lose the turnover battle, they will lose this week against Oregon State.

That's where the game is going to be won and lost. They're favored by six and a half. I think it's going to be closer than that. Oregon State is good at home. They're well coached. And if they don't turn it over, they might beat the Trojans. They might beat the Trojans. That's my almost upset of the week.

And I'm talking outright, by the way, outright. Those are the games, folks. Prove it weak. And I love it. I love it. I just talked about an episode two, the fact that the non-conference was just not great this year. We had some great games, but as a whole, only seven ranked matchups, average margin of 25 points.

You're giving me four-score games and non-conference games. Now we finally get to some of these conference games. We finally get to some of these road tests for teams that we don't quite know a lot about. And it's a prove-it week. And this is why I love these like four, fifth, six weeks of the season. You're going to see the war of attrition. Can you come back and play well every single week? Can you get healthy?

What are you if you aren't healthy? Oh, I love it. This is going to be a fabulous week of college football, folks. We're going to be at Michigan. Gus Jenny and I will be at Michigan for that Maryland-Michigan game. That's Big Noon Saturday. At 10 a.m. Eastern, it's Big Noon kickoff. Rob, Reggie, Matt, Brady, Coach.

They've got you taken care of. We've got a great show, including Charles Woodson is going to be on the show this week and many more guests. I can't wait for that. There's no doubt. This show is the Joel Clatt show. You can follow us on social media at Joel Clatt. If you would, please, folks.

We all love college football. So go and rate us and leave a review. That would help us out and continue to just share with your friends. We are growing really fast. I cannot thank you enough for being a part of the show, listening to the show, and then telling someone about it. And the more interaction we get, the better. So hit me up on social media.

I'm at Joel Clad on Twitter. I'm at Joel underscore Clat on Instagram. And I love conversing and talking college football even on social media. So that'll do it for today. and we got a great slate of college football. I cannot wait to get out to Michigan and the prove it weak, folks, prove it weak. Six top 10 teams with tough matchups.

I think at least two of them are going to go down. Thanks for listening. This is the Joel Clatshow.