The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Football Rankings Reaction

Episode Date: October 31, 2018

Joel Klatt reveals his first CFP rankings and tell you why the committee is the absolute worst way to decide the College Football Playoff.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, what's going on. Oh, what a wonderful day it is. What a wonderful day it is. We had our first college football playoff rankings last night. So we'll get to that. Whatever that was. Let me just start by saying thanks to Dr. Pepper, which sponsors breaking the huddle. I'm Joel Klat. I love Dr. Pepper. And one of the reasons is because at every home gate and tailgate, it is the one that fans crave. All right. So. Whatever happened last night was like, that was an abomination. We're going to get to all of that, but don't worry, it's going to be in a fun way. I'm not just like an old man, get off my lawn, screaming at the clouds. Let's get to my top six, and we broke out the playoff top six because it's awesome. So big thanks to our staff. Let's start with number one. So no longer going 10 to 1, we're going to start with 1, and we're going to boil it all down.

Number 1, even for me, listen, and this is my rankings here. Alabama's number one. I understand that their schedule hasn't been great. So what does a great team do to a bad schedule? Well, they get off the great starts. They've done that. They've scored a touchdown on every single opening series of the year. So that's pretty impressive. They've scored, outscored their opponents by 252 points in the first half. 252 points. That's, I mean, blowing away the second best first half team in the country, which is Clemson, which beats their opponents by 150 total points. in the first half. So they're just crushing it right now. This team is as good as any that I've

seen in the last several years, maybe going all the way back to the 05 days when I thought Texas and USC were two of the better teams that we had ever seen. So it's going to take a Herculean effort to knock off Alabama whenever somebody that can potentially do that. It's not going to be this week. LSU I've been picking against you all year. I still think you're overranked this week. your offense is not good enough to keep up with Alabama. If you win, you're going to be ranked number one for me over whatever undefeated is out there. Okay? I understand that. But I just don't think you're going to beat Alabama.

I think Alabama is really good. And we're finally going to see what this team can do when they play for four quarters. Because I do think Tua will play in his first fourth quarter of the season. That's the only advantage that you have, LSU is that this team has not been in a dogfight. They have not played big, meaningful snaps in the second half, in particular in the fourth quarter. I think that's the way that you can potentially beat Alabama, is get them in a situation in which they're uncomfortable.

I still don't think you're going to win, but go, tigers. All right, Clemson is number two. Again, their resume is also not great. Let me move this so we can see the pretty number two on the other side. There we go. There we go. Clemson's resume is still not great, but what are they doing? They're doing very similar to what Alabama is doing. They're crushing their competition.

If you look at their last few weeks, their last three weeks, they won by like what, 150, 160 to 20, something along those. I mean, they are killing people. And one of the biggest deals with Clemson that I'm actually bullish on is the fact that their young quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, continues to get better and better and better. What they did to Florida State should be borderline illegal because they throttled Florida State. Hey, Florida State, how does it feel to be completely average? Well done because you're not even average. That was awful. I mean awful.

Your worst home loss ever. Hey, but at least you got your guy Willie Taggart. Okay, so Trevor Lawrence did something at Florida State that no one since Philip Rivers has been able to do four touchdowns, no interceptions. This is a really good team with a great defense and a great defensive line. They're not going anywhere. The ACC is garbage. They've been fraudulently propped up by the committee. We'll get to that later.

But Clemson is really good. regardless of the way I feel about your entire conference, you're a really good football team, Clemson, and you deserve, at least in my estimation, the number two ranking. So all you Tiger fans out there, save for the LSU ones, all these Tiger fans, save your hate, I love your football team. I think your league sucks, but Clemson is really good.

Okay, this is where I'm going to start to differ. I like Oklahoma in the three spot. Oklahoma has played so much better in the last couple of weeks. And I understand that loss to Texas took its toll on Oklahoma, in particular, in the defensive staff. They fired Mike Stoops. Since then, by the way, Ruffin McNeil comes in as the interim defensive coordinator, and they have very quickly given up the least amount of yardage that they have all season in back-to-back games. 275 against TCU, under 250 against Kansas State.

They faced fewer than 55 snaps in both of those games. So Lincoln Riley doing his part and protecting the defense, allowing them to stay arrested. I thought that they were better in the defensive line. And remember, you can say, yeah, K State's not great. That's true. I understand K State is not great. But did you know Alex Barnes for K State was the leading rusher in the Big 12, that he had run for over 600 yards in the previous two games,

one of those against Oklahoma State? and this is a team that Kansas State was rushing the ball as well as anybody in the country over those previous two games. And what did they do? Nothing against OU. So that's a positive sign. Are you a great defense, Oklahoma? No, you're not a great defense. Do you have to be a great defense?

No, you don't have to be a great defense. Why? Because the offense is unbelievable. This offense is even better than this offense. Now, don't. Send all your hate, Bama fans, because we haven't seen this offense play all four quarters in any game. So the totals have been skewed a little bit, but the numbers would suggest that Oklahoma is at least per play the best offense that we may have ever seen. They're averaging 8.9 yards per play. That would set an FBS record.

I believe it was Hawaii that has set the previous record. Remember the Colt Brennan Hawaii teams that averaged just over 8 and a half yards per play? This team in Oklahoma is averaging 8.9 yards per play. They are unbelievable, and they're doing it with a bevy of different running backs. Kennedy Brooks comes in, by the way, the last couple of games. How about that run that he had? Gus Johnson with a big call. Kennedy is a guy that they've liked a lot within their walls, their building, and he's averaging 11.9 yards per carry. So watch out for him. He's not even their starter. Tray Serman is their starter, but that running game is sensational. Best offensive line, I believe, in the country. and this is the team that I think could give Alabama the biggest run for their money, namely because, and I said this on the broadcast, OU can get in a shootout and they won't care.

They won't care. You know, you tell Oklahoma, hey, you know, you're going to go play Alabama and you've got to score 50 points. Great. Like, I mean, that's Saturday in the Big 12. Meanwhile, if you put Clemson into that scenario or Notre Dame or Michigan or LSU, which will be, in that situation this week, I think those teams freak out. I don't think they're able to do that. Kyler Murley walks out there and he's like, yeah, I've been there, been there, done that.

I've been in Red River when our defense gave up 48. We just were in a Rose Bowl where our defense gave up, well, almost over 50 points to Georgia. This is what they do. I'm not saying they'll win. All I'm saying is that they would be the most comfortable in that situation. That's all I'm saying. I think they would give Alabama the biggest run for their money. So don't come at me like I was saying Oklahoma is going to beat Alabama.

I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that it would be a great game. Okay, number four, I've got Notre Dame. Notre Dame has done what they're supposed to do. I understand they struggle a little bit when you're talking about that game against Pitt, but they were dominant last week against Navy. Ian Book with 330 yards passing in that ballgame, he has transformed that offense. I don't know how many times I have to say that, but this guy with him in the lineup,

they're averaging over 40 points per game offensively. That's over 17 points per game better than they were in the first three games of the season when they didn't have book in the starting lined up under Brandon Wimbush. Their running game is really good. Jerry Tillery is a guy that I think could be one of, if not the best and most dominant defensive player in the country, at least this year, in particular with guys like Boso getting hurt and Roshan Gary getting hurt and Ed Oliver getting banged up a little bit. Jerry Tilleri very quietly has had a great season. So Notre Dame gets my fourth spot. That's where I would go with the current top four in the country.

Now the first two teams that are right outside of that, Michigan, I've got you at five and LSU, I've got you at seven. I still respect what LSU has done resume-wise. I still think that they're a really good football team. I don't think that they're going to win this week. but Michigan is better than LSU. Michigan's defense is better than LSU, their offense is better than LSU, and their resume, while not quite as good, is still very strong. Now, that resume is getting attacked by the college football playoff committee, which we'll get into in just a second.

But for now, I really like Michigan at five. I think if Michigan takes care of their business, they're going to have a great shot to get into that top four. I would take Oklahoma as a one loss over, Michigan right now, but remember, with Texas's loss last week to Oklahoma State, and probably a two-loss team having to face them, Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game, that's not quite the resume builder that Michigan might have if they face a one-loss Ohio State and then get a Big Ten champ game. Remember, Michigan still faces Penn State this week. So the resume

is actually better for Michigan moving forward than I think it will be for Oklahoma. Oklahoma still has to go to West Virginia, by the way. The problem is, and this is what I want to get to, folks, the committee is awful, all right? And it's not just an opinion. The numbers bear it out. This is the worst possible way to rank football teams. The data backs me up tenfold on this. Let's just take it very simply. And I'm just going to take two computer ranks. rankings that I respect a lot. And these computer rankings each run thousands of simulations, thousands based on score, based on all sorts of different factors, road, home, everything. They take a look at these teams so intricately. It's not just one day in a committee room in Texas,

right, with 13 individuals. These are thousands and thousands of variables that these computers look at. And what did they spit out? Well, this is what they spit out. If you look at the FBI, which ESPN gives us, and the Sagan rating, and I actually think the Sagrin ratings are just a little bit better, but that's just me. What you will see is that those two rating systems look at teams very similarly, very similarly, after thousands and thousands and thousands of variations. And the variation between where teams are rated in each of those models is within the margin for error. You very rarely get an outlier in those computer models.

Now, there might be one here or there, but remember, they're pretty equal. Well, all you have to do is compare those two computer models to what the committee did, in particular with the ACC. The ACC is not good this season. They're three and nine as a conference versus other Power Five leagues, including Notre Dame. Three and nine. That's the worst record of any of the Power Five conferences against other Power Five conferences, including Notre Dame.

The worst. Three and nine. And yet, four ACC teams sneak in the back. door the committee rankings. And by the way, they are so overranked compared to where the computers would have them. Just wrap your head around this for one moment. If you take Clemson out of the mix, Clemson is number two in the committee, two in the FPI, two in the Sagrin, and then you look at the four teams that the ACC has in the committee rankings after that. You've got Syracuse, North Carolina State, Boston College, and Virginia.

on average, this is not a total, on average, those four teams are ranked 16 and three-quarter spots higher in the committee rankings than they are in the FPI. Is that an anomaly compared to the Sagan? Nope, you know how much higher they are on average than the Sagrin? 16 spots. That just goes to show you that these two computer models with thousands of variations see these teams exactly the same. And yet, Frank Beamer got on a soapbox and said, come on ACC, get on my coattails, because Virginia, you're going to be ranked. Why? No reason.

Absolutely none. The conference that is getting the biggest shaft in all of this is the Big Ten, which makes you wonder where Gene Smith is in all of these conversations. He's a representative. The 88 Ohio State is in right now the committee and on the committee. And if you look at their teams, what you will see is they're the only Power 5 league that on average their teams are lower in the committee rankings than they are in the FPI, the only Power 5 league. Go check it. Check my math. They're down by about three and a quarter spots. On average versus the FPI. Well, did you know, that's not even considering the teams that were not ranked by the committee and ranked higher in both computer model than all of the ACC teams.

I'm talking about Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State, unranked by the committee, higher in both computer models than every single ACC team that was ranked from 19 to 25. How is that possible? How is that possible? If you're in a math class, a stats class, you talk with a statistician or a mathematician, guess what they would do with the computer rankings, or excuse me, the committee rankings? They would take the committee rankings, crumble them up and throw them away. Why? Because they're outliers. Total fraudulent outliers. This committee is being run by Frank Beamer, and it's so obvious you can't even get around it. You can't even get around it. So the team that's getting hurt the most is Michigan, because their resume is getting pulled out from under their feet, Wisconsin, Michigan State, namely. By the way, Northwestern, that's another team that's ranked higher in both computer models than Virginia is, but they're not ranked either.

four big 10 teams that aren't ranked. Not even talking about the teams that are ranked that are on average three and a quarter spots lower by the committee than the FPI. So there's one league, one that's bearing the brunt of all of this bias and that's the big 10. Well done committee. Well done. This has been breaking the huddle. All we do is throw out facts. We don't care about your feelings. Gotta love it. We've been sponsored by Dr. pepper at every home gate and tailgate. It is the one that fans crave. Take these numbers and run, folks. If you're a college football fan, take those numbers and run. Text, email, send this video to every ACC football fan you have and tell them your league right now is fraudulent.

There's really one giant reason why just 13 people in a room is the most flawed way to rank college football teams. And that comes down to variance. Statistical variance. What you're going to have is one or two rogue votes, and depending on how influential they are, they end up grabbing even more, two, three, four, five votes end up swaying wildly out of the dataset and out of the norm, and that affects the rankings. And these rankings matter, so you can no longer tell me that they don't matter like the AP poll. You can no longer tell me any of that because, one, they affect directly who is included in the playoff and these are the rankings that we are absolutely hiring and firing coaches by when it comes to the offseason. Resumays are built. So everything matters, not just one to four, but five to 25. It matters where teams are and it matters what you're doing with that resume in the back end of the rankings. Now it's pretty clear that the variance right now is skewing wildly in one direction. And let's get to those numbers. This committee, as it's currently constructed, has two major flaws. One is their confirmation

bias and it's pretty clear that they have it. And the other is there's clearly an influencer on that committee right now that is driving a data set that is not anywhere close to what it should be. It's way outside of the margin for error. And so let's dive into that. First, the confirmation bias. We have heard for years and years and years and rightly so because of the top end of the league that the SEC is the end all be all in college football. And that's true at the top end of their conference. They've been to terrific. They've won so many national titles. They've been dominant. Alabama is currently on a stretch in which I would call them the most dominant and best college football team maybe ever, in particular when you're talking about the entire decade since they won their first championship. I think Nick Sabin's the best coach that we've ever seen. Now, what that has done is it has skewed the vision a little bit of what happens under Alabama. The SEC is pretty good. And this year they're having a better year than they did a year ago, in particular when you're talking about record against other Power 5 leagues.

Now, they're not quite good enough for this to be true about these first rankings. The top undefeated team was an SEC team Alabama. The top one-loss team ranked in the rankings was LSU. And by the way, they were over and undefeated in Notre Dame. The top two-loss team was Florida. They were ranked ahead of a one-lossed West Virginia ahead of an undefeated central Florida. The top three-loss team in the rankings, Mississippi State, ahead of some two-lossed and even one-loss teams deep in the rankings back there in the back end. So that's confirmation bias at play.

Every single time they have a chance to rank someone higher than they maybe should be, it happens for the SEC. And they get the benefit of the doubt. You could argue that they've earned it. I would argue that it's confirmation bias. Let's get to the actual problem with this current committee because there's clearly an influencer, and I happen to believe it's Frank Beamer out of the ACC, the former head coach of Virginia Tech and what a great head coach he was. Frank Beamer was one of the all-time greats. I love watching Frank Beamer teams play. But it's pretty clear that he's got the ear of the committee. How do I know that? The conference he coached in was overvalued by such a staggering margin

that it's hard to even fathom the numbers that I'm about to talk about. First and foremost, you've got to understand that I value, and a lot of people value, computer range, rankings. And if you look at enough computer rankings, what you get is a data set that has so many variations and so many variables that you start to throw out the anomalies and you start to get to a data set that is very standard and standardized. And you start to see that there's not a lot of margin for error and there's not a lot of deviation from that norm. So if you look at the FPI and the Sagan ratings, let's just take those two, for example, what you see is, generally speaking, those two will kind of line up with each other. And they're not exactly

Exactly, but like I said, within the margin of error for the most part. So if you take the FPI and the Sagan ratings and you look at where some of these ACC teams are ranked in those systems, what you see is that they are far below that 25 mark that it automatically should peak your interest. You should start to go look at the data on what does the data suggest. Well, it suggests this. The ACC is so far overvalued that it is staggering by a mark of on average 16 and three-quarter spot. Those four teams, Syracuse, North Carolina State, Boston College, and Virginia are on average, not total, on average ranked 16 and three-quarter spots higher by the committee than they are in the FPI. What about the Sagram ratings? 16 full spots higher in the rankings than they are in the Sagram ratings.

That is a staggering data set. Every other conference that you look at, and I have looked at all of them, fall within the margin of air. Between three and a half each direction, some are higher, some are lower. Now, we're going to get into one conference that actually is bearing the brunt of this fraudulent data system, this fraudulent rankings and this influencer in the committee, because right now the ACC is putting their thumb on the Big Ten. Let's get into that for just a second. The Big Ten is bearing the brunt of these flawed rankings. And the reason I know that is because every other Power 5 league is actually ranked higher by the committee, on average, all of their teams than the computer rankings, the FPI and the Sagrin.

All of them, okay? There's only one Power 5 league that on average their ranked teams are lower, and that's the Big Ten. They're lower by about three and a quarter spots. Now, you could say that's the margin of error, but I want to take another step. That's without teams like Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Northwestern even ranked. Okay, so that's not even allowing for the option that these teams are so far below what they should be by the committee, and they're not even in that data set. So that's just taking the Big Ten teams that are ranked.

They're three and a half, or excuse me, three and a quarter spots lower on average in the committee rankings than they are in the computer rankings. That's wrong. That's wrong. The Big Ten is bearing the brunt of this flawed system this year, this year. Then you just dig a little bit deeper and you'll see that there's no reason for this whatsoever. It's not like the ACC has been great in the non-conference. In fact, they've got the worst record of any other Power Five league against the other. power five leagues including Notre Dame of anybody in the country. They're three and nine in those games. There's only two leagues that have a winning record in such games against power five leagues including Notre Dame, the SEC, which has the top record in the country and the Big Ten. The Big Ten is seven and six. Even when you look at the Big Ten versus specifically the ACC, what you'll see is

the Big Ten is three and one. And those matchups, the only loss that they suffered was Duke beating Northwestern. And every other matchup you saw Purdue beat Boston College. Boston College is now ranked for what reason I don't know. You saw Indiana beat Virginia. Indiana beat Virginia. Why is Virginia ranked? There's no reason whatsoever. You saw Penn State beat Pitt 51 to 6. 51 to 6 out of the ACC. There's no reason for these numbers to come out the way that they are except for two very clear reasons. Confirmation bias and influential bias in the committee. This is the most flawed way we can possibly rank college football teams, and it's that flawed by a wide margin.