The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings: Is Indiana safe? Do the 3-loss SEC teams have a path?

Episode Date: November 27, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the latest College Football Rankings as the Committee drops Indiana down to 10th following their loss to Ohio State. He discusses whether Hoosier fans should feel like they are safely inside the Playoff or in danger of being jumped by a team behind them. He breaks down whether the 3-loss SEC teams such as Alabama, Ole Miss or even South Carolina have a pathway to sneaking through the backdoor into the Field. Klatt breaks down if the Big 12 Champ could be vulnerable to missing out on the Playoff altogether and whether the CFP would actually leave a potential Big 12 Champion Colorado team out. He wraps up the episode by discussing whether the 12-team field is actually the best format for the Playoff and points out why the current system has some flaws that could very well show themselves this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The number one thing I look at is, would you rather have the number one seed or the fifth seed? College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, what's up, everybody? Welcome into the Joel Clatt show.

I'm Joel Clatt, and we've got a great Raking's reaction show ready for you. This show, as always, is brought to you by Hampton by Hilton. And wherever you're listening to this podcast, go ahead and rate and review us if you would. If you're watching on YouTube, thank you very much. Subscribe to the show and make sure to hit that notification button. And then wherever you like to social media, we are there, the Joel Klatt show, or at Joel Klatt show, wherever you like to social media and you get all that content out there. And listen, we're blown up on TikTok, folks.

So let's go. I love these ranking reaction shows because it just feels real. you get these weekend of games and last week was so chaotic. And then now you get to see like, well, what was the effect of those games and the chaos that we saw on Saturday? And we got it from the committee. As always, there's some things that I like. There's some things that I don't like. There's some things that I would change.

Let's take a look at the top 25 and see what they gave us Colorado in there, just sneaking in after that loss to Kansas. Kansas State, Illinois, ULV. Missouri's still hanging in there. Way to go, Missouri. and then A&M, and then you get this like Big 12 trio with Tulane, BYU, Iowa State, Tulane, and Arizona State. Then you get into these teams that are like the three loss SEC teams. Do you get jammed up here with South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Alabama? Then you start to get into the like, okay, the playoff bubble.

We've got Clemson at 12, Boise State at 11, Indiana at 10, SMU 9, Tennessee, 8, Georgia 7, Miami 6, Notre Dame 5, Penn State is four, Texas is three, and then Ohio State, two, Oregon, one. So not a ton of change up at the top. So what do we think here? Let's just start in. And I think the one team that most people were interested to see where the committee was going to rank them was Indiana. And Indiana comes in at number 10, just ahead of Boise State and right behind SMU in Tennessee and Georgia and Miami. Miami gets a big benefit of the doubt from the committee.

by the way, the committee liking them a lot more than the AP, more than a lot of people, I think. I think that Miami is a bit overrated here from the committee. Now, you can argue with that. Sure, I'm sure that there are arguments because they do have Cam Ward and they do have a couple of nice wins in particular after Florida picked up that win against Ole Miss, that win in the swamp to begin the season looks a lot better for Miami, in particular after this last weekend. So I understand that.

But then SMU at 9 and Indiana at 10, Indiana is not getting the respect that they deserve. So if I'm Indiana, if I'm the Indiana Hoosiers and I'm a Hoosier fan, how do I feel right now after seeing these rankings? Well, I think I feel two things. I feel a good bit of disrespect from the committee. And I also am going to feel cautiously optimistic about my standings in this playoff seating, if you want to call it that in these rankings. Let me expand on that. The disrespect is pretty obvious because if you actually look at the resumes,

as opposed to like, let's say, Miami and SMU and more specifically SMU, then you would see that Indiana's resume is a lot better than SMUs. And they've got comparable records at 10 and 1. Their best wins are for SMU, Louisville and Duke. And for Indiana, it would be Washington and Michigan. by the way, those two teams played for a national championship last year. The strength of schedule is actually not close in favor of Indiana at this point. 51st ranked strength of schedule for the Hoosiers, 77th ranked strength of schedule for SMU,

and both of them are 0 and won against the top 25. So you don't have a top 25 win. You tell me how SMU's resumes suggest that they're better than Indiana. You can't. You can't. the loss, first and foremost, is not even comparable. This SMU team lost to BYU. Now BYU has started to stumble, and now this BYU team is not clearly, not anywhere near what they have been for the really bulk of the season.

You've got a seven point win over Louisville, a five point win over Nevada, a one point went over Duke when you turned it over a million times, a 10 point went over Boston College. Meanwhile, Indiana had gone out there and just absolutely decimated the rest of their schedule, and they lost to Ohio State, not BYU, Ohio State, with the number one defense, both total and scoring in the shoe. Those things are not comparable. Not at all.

So do I think that there's a fair bit of disrespect going towards Indiana? Absolutely. And if I was a Hoosier fan, I would be really upset. SMU should not be ranked higher than Indiana right here, not even close. And by the way, you look at some of the other one-loss teams around them. You go all the way up to number five, Notre Dame. Notre Dame's strength of schedule has not been great either. They're 78th in the country as far as strength of schedule, with, of course,

their one loss being Northern Illinois at home. Now, Notre Dame has been tremendous against the rest of their schedule. That was a big win at Texas A&M, obviously, and then they've been hammering people. And rightly so, the committee has rewarded that. They've been killing folks. Just like Indiana was killing folks. In fact, I believe Notre Dame now has passed Indiana in terms of average margin of victory in terms of those wins during the course of the year, the 10 wins for Notre Dame.

But their loss is Northern Illinois. That happened in South Bend. Indiana goes on the road to Ohio State after totally dismantling the rest of their schedule and we're going to throw them to the wolves because their punt team can't execute. I mean, I felt like that was a big disrespect towards Indiana. You take a look at the other. one loss teams. Miami is the 59th ranked strength of schedule. SMU has the 77th ranked strength of schedule and the losses are not comparable. They are not comparable. Indiana lost to Ohio State. Miami lost to Georgia Tech. Indiana lost to Ohio State. SMU lost to BYU. Indiana lost to Ohio State, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois. One of these is not like the other. And so the

committee needs to revisit that. And the reason why I think it might be important is that, is that at the end of it, the ACC championship game loser is likely the team that's going to be right on the bubble. And if that's a team that the committee is telling us right now is better than Indiana, that's a problem. And that's why I'm cautiously optimistic. Indiana is in. They should be higher. They should be higher. If the committee is going to value conference championship game appearances and not devalue teams based on a loss in those games, then Indiana is in like, you know, a little bit of a gray area at this point. Now, they shouldn't be because they should be higher. They should be higher than certainly SMU. And that would be the one that I think is the most disrespectful. Do I think that they're safely

in? Maybe not safely. But again, I'm cautiously optimistic. You look at what's going on around them from a schedule perspective and do you see teams jumping them? That's what I would have to be worry about if I was Indiana. Do I think that the Clemson, South Carolina winner is going to jump Indiana? I don't. I do think it would help if Indiana took care of business and won by a significant margin over Purdue. I really do, because Purdue is not very good. And that strength of schedule is going to get knocked down because of facing the boilermakers. However, do I think teams are going to jump them? I don't think so. I don't think so. The committee has done stranger things, I think back to the first iteration with that Baylor-TCU debacle with Ohio State

winning late by a wide margin over Wisconsin and the Big Ten championship game. I would be worried if I was Indiana about the champ loser from the ACC. If you're telling me that they're ahead of them now and you're not going to devalue based on the loss in a 13th data point, then I don't know if Indiana is going to pass that team. One thing does look to be pretty clear. Even if Indiana wins against Purdue and they are in the playoff, they're likely, if not assuredly going on the road. So Indiana, that's how I kind of feel about them.

I do think that there's a fair bit of recency bias, by the way, and still brand bias that's hitting the Hoosiers. Right? Like that disrespect is there. It's not that long ago that I saw SMU beat Duke by a point. Miami has like a one point win over Cal and a four point win over Virginia. over Virginia Tech and a loss to Georgia Tech. Like, how is Miami 6?

That doesn't, it does not make sense. It just really doesn't. Let's move on to some other points of, I think, emphasis and pain points, at least for me, or points that we could, like, really converse. The SEC 3 loss kind of aggregate there, 13 to 15, Bama, Ole Miss, South Carolina. South Carolina is pretty clear. You've got to beat Clemson, and then at that point,

maybe pending some things ahead of you going your way, you could get in. Now, do I think that that's likely? No, no, I don't. Why? Because of Bama and Ole Miss. Right? Like, you're not passing those teams.

So do I think South Carolina actually has a path? No. I wouldn't even call it narrow. I don't think that they have a path. Bama and Ole Miss, I think it's narrow, but I think that there is a path. So let's talk about it. Like, how does Alabama and Ole Miss three loss SEC teams not going to their conference championship game?

How would they make it into the college football playoff? Well, for Bama, I think it's a little easier than Ole Miss. So let's discuss that one first. The first thing that they need is, I believe, is a Texas win over Texas A&M. The last thing that you need is for the SEC to get more jumbled. There is some separation now. Now you just have to take care of the others right around you. You don't need Ole Miss, or excuse me, Texas A&M jumping in there

and being part of that fray with a massive win over a team like Texas that the committee values in the top three in the country. You don't want that at all. So the first thing that BAMN needs is a Texas win over Texas A&M. Okay, so that's number one. The next thing Bama needs is the ACC to fall off because right now it looks like the ACC has a path towards two, teams, not just one. Well, for Bama, they need the ACC to have one team. So what needs to happen? Well,

I think that they need South Carolina to beat Clemson or they need SMU to totally collapse or they need Miami to totally collapse. So they need two of those three to kind of fall by the wayside. Now, what's the most likely? I think the most likely would be a South Carolina win against Clemson. That would be number one. And then Miami really taking care of business against SMU and like knocking them way back out of there. Maybe it's even a Cal win over SMU, something along those lines. If those two things happen, if the ACC loses that second bid based on any amount of chaos that happens with those games and Texas beats Texas A&M, now I think Alabama actually does have a path. They do have a path. So what's the path for Ole Miss? Well, it's a lot different,

and I think it's harder. I shouldn't say it's the same but harder. Sorry, not a lot different. It's the same but harder. They need the exact same thing in terms of Texas beating Texas A&M. They need the exact same thing in terms of two of the three ACC teams falling by the wayside. Again, the most likely being South Carolina beating Clemson and then probably like SMU getting either beat badly by Miami in the ACC championship game or either like losing DeKal and the ACC championship game, knocking them totally out. Then they would also need an Auburn win in the Iron Bowl. Because they're not just going to pass Alabama by beating Mississippi State. So Ole Miss needs Alabama to lose. They probably need South Carolina to win over Clemson.

They probably need Cal to win over SMU. They need SMU to then lose that ACCC championship game. And then you've got a path. It's narrow, but it's there. So I think that it would be foolish for someone to say there's no chance that a a three loss, a 10 and 3 SEC, or excuse me, a 9 and 3 SEC team is not going to go to the playoff. I do think that there's going to be a chance, not a great one, but a chance that they do go. Then it brings you to kind of this big 12 situation, and that situation has to do with the champion requirement. So as we know, there needs to be five champs and the top five champions go from any conference. So we've always just assumed, well, that would mean the power

four conferences and then one group of five member. Now, however, Tulane is sitting there right in the middle of that big 12 two loss kind of aggregate. You've got Arizona State, you've got Iowa State, you've got BYU, with Tulane sitting right in the middle of that. Boise State has kind of clearly separated themselves. If they win their conference, they're going to be in, and most likely going to get that buy and the fourth seed.

That's what's most likely. Then you go to like, well, who's going to get the fifth conference championship game auto bid? It's probably going to be the Big 12. It's probably going to be the Big 12. Pending a lot of chaos in the Big 12, which has been a flat conference, and certainly anything can happen. There's no doubt. But Tulane, with a win over, let's say, Army in their championship game,

if they win the American, I think that they're going to need some chaos in the Big 12, because you can provide a path for all of those big 12 teams that are, that's pretty obvious. Pretty obvious. The three that are right around Tulane, you've got Iowa State, you've got Arizona State, and you've got BYU. Well, they would win this week and then they would get another win over a team probably in the top 16 or 17 in the country and that would propel them ahead of Tulane. We all know that because Army's not even ranked now after they got beat by Notre Dame. The bigger question would be Colorado. See, Colorado is also a two-loss team in the conference.

Three-loss total, two loss in the Big 12. So if Colorado finds themselves in the Big 12 championship game and they win that conference championship game, would they pass Tulane? Well, right now they're sitting all the way back there at 25. Tulane's sitting all the way up there. What is they? 17. Like, do they pass them at that point? Do they get those eight spots back?

I think most likely they would. They would. the reason being is that that would mean a win over Oklahoma State this week, and then they would play one of those teams that's right up there around Tulane, which would be likely a top 16, 15 win in the country. That would be another win. Well, not another. It would be their win against a top 25 team while Tulane would not have a win over a top 25 team.

In that case, I think Colorado would probably go. Tulane would be 0 and 2 versus the Power 4. They played Kansas State earlier. They played Oklahoma earlier in the country or in the season. They would have the 100th ranked strength of schedule at that point. And I just don't see them being included over a Colorado team that was a three-loss, Big 12 champ. They won that flat conference that was very competitive with Deon Sanders as their coach,

the likely number one overall pick as their quarterback in Shudor Sanders. And at that point, the likely Heisman Trophy winner and Travis Hunter, you mean to tell me that the committee, if Colorado were to beat Oklahoma State and beat one, one of those three teams up there right around Tulane that they wouldn't put Colorado in over Tulane. Let's just say if they didn't, if the committee didn't do that, it would be business malpractice. Then what are we doing here? What are we doing here?

In particular, if Tulane doesn't have a power four win. At least when you look at Boise State, you can look at a season worth of dominance, a great player in Ashton Genty. And in their power four loss to Oregon, they played them tight. Eugene and Oregon's undefeated in the number one team in the country. So, like, I just, is there a way that Tulane gets in? Yes, I think a lot of things have to happen. You've got to get that crazy scenario where you've got like a Kansas State, Texas Tech Big 12 championship game.

And if that were to happen, then Tulane would probably end up being the fifth champ included in the college football playoff. They would not get a buy, but they would be included in the college football playoff. They need Big 12 chaos. Because if the champ of the Big 12 comes from one of the four ranked teams right now, and maybe even Kansas State, you could throw in Kansas State as well. I think those teams would pass them. Remember, Kansas State has a win over two lanes. So even Kansas State, who's sitting at 24, if they find themselves somehow some way in the Big 12 championship game, the Green Wave is going to get knocked out of there. So a lot of people based on the rankings

tonight, well, I'm recording tonight, last night. They could probably see themselves saying that, you know, like, oh, Tulane might get in there. Big 12 might left out. I just don't see it. I just don't see it. As long as the Big 12 champ comes from one of those five ranked teams, they'll pass Tulane, even Colorado, which would make up those eight spots. And again, I would just say this, Tulane with no power four wins.

And you would have Colorado sitting there as the winner of the Big 12 with Dionne Sanders, Shador Sanders, and Travis Hunter, of course that they would be in the playoff. And rightly so. folks, and rightly so. It brings up this question, not that specific question, but like, I look at this bracket. We get the rankings, we get to talk about them, we get to start to see the playoff, and then you look at the bracket, and I'm immediately struck by a few things. The number one thing I look at is, would you rather have the number one seed or the fifth seed?

Which is better? Because if you're the number one seed, yes, you get a buy. And you might just say to me like, Joel, I would absolutely rather have a buy. And if that's your argument and position, then that's great. Then that's great. However, the way that it is currently, and I know this will change, but currently, Georgia would host Tennessee in the 8-9 game, and the winner would play Oregon who's the number one seed.

So Oregon would get a buy and then presumably, play a team like Georgia. Let's just say that you lose the Big Ten championship game and you're the five seed like Ohio State is positioned to be right now. You don't get the buy, but you do get a week off before the playoffs starts. So you kind of get a buy. And then you would play Arizona State in the shoe. You would win that game.

Then you would go to a neutral site and you would play Boise State in the quarter of final. So would you rather play Arizona State and Boise State two games or Georgia one game? I think that's an obvious answer. So the question has to be asked. Is this playoff format any good? And I'm just here to tell you

it's not. And just remember the exact same people that made the BCS made the 14th playoffs and now made this playoff. And they make massive errors every time they give something new. And I've been talking about this for a long time. There is no reason why we should be giving just random like, hey, conference champs get the four top seeds and a buy.

Well, that could mean it's the 10th or 11th best team in the country. And then you get this unevenness where all the sudden you've got a, you're rewarding Oregon. All we're trying to do in college football. And all people argue about, maybe not all. A big thing that people argue about is this importance of the regular season. And I'm one of them. Like I think the importance of the regular season should be there.

And there's ways that you can incentivize the regular season like buys. And so I'm a proponent of keeping the playoff at a number where we have buys. I think there should be two. I think there should be a 14 team playoff, not a 12-team playoff, but I digress, mainly because I think we only need two buys. If you're trying to reward the regular season, and you're telling me that Oregon has a chance to go undefeated with two wins over Ohio State,

and their reward is their first playoff game is against Georgia, while the team that they beat twice in Ohio State would get to go and play Arizona State and Boise State for a trip to go to the college football playoffs, my final? That's not a good format. That's not a good format at all. It's totally uneven. So that would probably need to change. It would probably need to change. I personally believe that we should reseed teams after the first round. If you want to reward the regular season, if you want to tell me that it's going to mean something and it should mean something for Oregon to go and

playing the Big Ten championship game and win that game. Or Ohio State, by the way, if you're looking at those two teams and probably are going to, like, if they win this week, they would go and play as number one and number two in the country. If you want to incentivize that game, then reseed after the first round of the college football playoff. Because that's the only way that you benefit if you're one of those teams to win that game. Because I'm telling you that the path to the semi is actually better for the five seed. Again, would you rather play one game against Georgia or two games, one against Arizona State and one against Boise? I think that the answer is obvious. I don't want to disparage those teams because those guys have done a great job, but one of these is not like the other.

So the format does need to change. There needs to be tweaks. If you're going to just put four conference champions in for the first four seeds and buys, then you've got to reward the number one. seed and two seed specifically because those two teams are likely to be a lot better than the three seed and the four seed. And you do that by reorganizing after the first round. You reseed. It's just not that hard. And you should absolutely do it. The highest remaining seed would play Oregon in a neutral site. The next highest remaining seed would play Texas. The next highest

remaining seed would play Miami and the next highest remaining seed would play Boise. That would mean that Boise would have the most difficult game in that first quarterfinal matchup. That's easy, folks. I just don't, I get frustrated with the people that have made this. They've made a ton of mistakes. They made a mistake with the calendar. They've made a mistake in terms of the format here. Little tweaks to this would make it a lot better. but I wasn't in the room, unfortunately. So we're not going to get to make those tweaks anytime soon. Listen, we are going to be back with picks and previews tomorrow on a Thursday.

We've got a huge week of college football coming up because we got the game, Michigan and Ohio State, which I can't wait for. It's going to be fantastic. That one's going to be in the shoe. Big Noon kickoff is going to be there with a three-hour edition of the show. So that starts at 9 a.m. excuse me, Eastern. I'm all over the map today. I've got way too much stuff on my mind. It's a holiday week. I hope you all have an amazing Thanksgiving with your family, friends,

whoever you're celebrating Thanksgiving with. And I will just tell you, I know you're going to listen to this on a Wednesday and Thanksgiving would be tomorrow. Maybe you're listening to this on Thanksgiving. And I just want to tell you, I'm really thankful for college football fans. I love college football fans. I love the organic nature of college football. I love the tribalism of our sport. I love the fact that it's broken and we get to talk about it. I love that it's subjective in a lot of instances and we're talking about these rankings and they actually mean something. I love that you care enough to listen to this program. Thank you for being a part of our year and our week and every one of these episodes.

I encourage you to share it with a friend. I encourage you to subscribe to the show on YouTube. hit the notification button, leave a comment below. I'm very thankful for you, among a lot of other things. And folks, pick some previews are coming up. Still over 60%, I believe. It was a tough one last week when Auburn ended up covering over Texas A&M, when it got to the second, third overtime,

when we started getting the two-point conversions, and I knew that I was not going to win the two-and-a-half point spread. That was a rough one, but we were still a four-and-three last week. So picks and previews are coming up on Thursday, and we will see you then.