The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings Reaction: How much danger is Georgia in? Are Indiana, Penn State and BYU?

Episode Date: November 13, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the 2nd edition of College Football Playoff Rankings with 4 Big Ten teams making up the Top 5 spots. He discusses how the Playoff Committee appeared to course-correct after last week and put Indiana and BYU up 3 spots despite coming off unconvincing wins. He looks at Georgia’s path to the Playoff as they are currently outside the 12-team bracket. Klatt also considers whether a 3-loss team in the SEC could still make the CFP and if Miami now has to run the table to get to secure a spot in the field. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I would say I'm more confident that there's going to be a 10-2 SEC team that is not in the college football playoff. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, what's up everybody? Welcome into the Joel Clatt show.

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All right. Let's move on. Let's move on. The rankings are out. This is our second edition of the college football. football playoff rankings. These are always interesting to get. And in particular, this version of the rankings, because they were vastly different in the way that they analyzed some of the same teams now week to week. So here we are. We've got our second

edition, and this is what they gave us. Here's the top 25. According to the college football playoff committee, Tulane, they get in there. Army is in there. Mizzou at 23, which, by the way, Eli Drinkowitz. You're not playing playoff games, brother. Sorry. Like, I'm just sorry. Everyone thinks I'm trying to take off on Missouri. It's just not the case, but they are not in a position to go to the college football playoff as an at-large team. And that ranking suggests it at number 23. You've got Colorado in there at 17, Kansas State at 16. It's very interesting there from the 15th spot in because Texas A&M is sitting there. SMU, clearly the committee doesn't think all that highly about SMU. Boise poised at 13. They win and they're going to be a group of five representative in there.

then Georgia at 12. And that's obviously interesting because they would be on the outside looking in the way that the bracket is formulated. Ole Miss at 11, Bama 10, Miami at 9, Notre Dame 8, Tennessee 7, BYU, 6. And then it's Indiana 5, Penn State 4, Texas 3, Ohio State 2, Oregon 1. So four big 10 teams right inside the top 5 there as Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, all in the top 5. Okay, let's get to just major takeaways now. Here's what we're thinking right now, right here at the Joel Clatch Show. I immediately saw a vast difference between last week and this week

in the way that the committee is viewing and ranking Indiana and BYU. Now, that was a big source of contention on this program and others, by the way, last week in terms of the way that the committee was viewing or more so undervaluing Indiana and BYU. Now they jump way up. So each of them jump way up, each of them up three spots. And what I've found so fascinating is that you can make a very strong argument that each of those teams jumped up three spots on the heels of

probably the worst performance that they've had all year long. Indiana against Michigan in the second half did not look like Indiana from any other game. and BYU, Utah, that was an incredible game that BYU was so fortunate to win, so fortunate to win. They get the penalty on the fourth down, then they're able to drive down. They get the field goal inside of five seconds. Utah felt like they had that game won. And so here's these two teams that play, I think, the worst game that they have played to date this season. And yet the playoff committee rewards them, moving them each up three spots.

I just found that fascinating. and to me, it was a little bit of a human movement because I felt like that committee heard what people were saying. And they reacted to what the sentiment was around Indiana and BYU last week after the first edition of the playoff rankings. So now when I look at those two teams, you see, last week I thought to myself, I don't know if they can lose one game. You know, even if it's BYU in the conference title game at 12 and 1, after last week's rankings, I didn't love their position. Same with Indiana. Let's say that for sake of argument that they lose a game that they will be underdogs in,

on the road at Ohio State, and they finish 11 and 1. After last week, I was like, I don't know, that's a bubble team. Now it looks like those teams are safe. So the committee is going to do one of two things here moving forward. Either they have adjusted and this will be the new norm. or we're going to see wild fluctuations every single week. If we see wild fluctuations every single week, then the point would be nobody is safe. Because you can go all the way down nine spots like Georgia did after a loss to Ole Miss,

or you can raise up three spots after your worst performance. So if they're going to be volatile, then nobody is safe. And you can't just say, well, we control our own destiny for an at-large spot, so on and so forth. Now, if they are just adjusting and they're trying to settle on a new normal, then what you would take from this iteration of these playoff rankings is that Indiana and BYU could probably lose a game and still go to the college football playoff. Yes, even BYU. Now, that would likely have to be in the Big 12 championship game because that would help

their stakes. They would be a 12-1 team at that point. If that were the case, would they probably still go? I think that they would. And now with Indiana at 5, you certainly see a scenario where even if they lost a game on the road as an underdog to Ohio State, that they would probably still go. So Kurt Signetti's crew is now 10-0. Their best wins are against Washington and Michigan. Both of those games were at home.

Their strength of schedule is still in the 100s. It's actually dead at 100. But they still have the second-rank scoring offense. They've still been beating people by quite a margin. until this week against Michigan. So they to me are a fascinating, fascinating watch in these playoff rankings. And the way that they played and being given the benefit of the doubt by this committee, I thought was my biggest takeaway, both of those.

The two non-blue blood brands got elevated three spots each after their worst performances. I would just hang real quickly before my next point because the team, above them in Penn State. They move up two spots. Now they're fourth. They're eight and one. They do not have much left on that schedule. I feel really good about Penn State going to the playoff and where they sit now after

two playoff rankings, I really feel good about them hosting a college football playoff game. We've speculated about that all the way back to the summer. And now, like, I'm feeling very confident about that. And boy, wouldn't you love to see a playoff game? off game in Happy Valley. I would sure love to see that because their home field advantage has obviously been so good for a long time. It's one of the best environments in college football, if not the best, in some instances. And for them to host, that would be a huge deal, in particular if they had to welcome an SEC team into their stadium. So that would be something that's very interesting. Okay, number two point

that I would say just kind of jumped off of these rankings for me is that I look down and I'm like, okay, yeah, you know, like Ole Miss is ahead of Georgia, but Georgia at 12, losses to Alabama to Ole Miss. Texas is way up there. There's Tennessee at seven. Georgia's playing for their life this weekend. Georgia is playing for their life this weekend against Tennessee. They're seven and two. Their best win is obvious. It's on the road against number three, Texas. That's a great win. they beat Clemson in the neutral site game to open the year. Their strength of schedule is number one in the country. The fact that they've had to play all of those teams in the SEC above them

and still have one to go, they've had to play Texas, they've had to play Alabama, they've had to play Ole Miss, and now they have to play Tennessee. It's wild. They're going to have to go play those teams all on the road except for Tennessee. You have to play, I mean, and we knew this before the year, but now that it's played out, that is, that is, wild that their schedule has played out like that. It's wild. Now, I think that they're playing for

their lives. Pending some craziness that happens, there is a scenario where Georgia as a 9 and 3 could still get in. I think that they're the only ones, though, because of that schedule. Other teams are not going to have that opportunity. If you were to ask me, what am I more confident in a 10 and 2 SEC team not making it or Georgia as a 9 and 3 being able to be in the playoff. I would say I'm more confident that there's going to be a 10 and 2 SEC team that is not in the college football playoff. That's my gut right now the way that these rankings have come out. This is not a good situation for Tennessee because anytime that Kirby Smart can use this like us against the world mentality, nobody believes in us mentality,

he's going to use that, and that's when his team plays their best. We've seen that time and time again. He used it in the game at Texas. That's easily their best performance of the year, most complete performance of the year. Do I still have concerns about their offense? Yes, I am very concerned about their offense, in particular facing that Tennessee defense,

which is an incredible defense, maybe the best in their conference. But Georgia's placement right there at 12, that one jumped out to me. What next? Okay, so, okay, what are the other things that jumped out? Miami. Miami, first, I would just say, I was pretty surprised that Miami was ahead of Bama Ole Miss and Georgia. I would not have done that. And the committee did. That Miami team has been perilously close, perilously close to a loss for a few weeks now.

against some average teams. And they finally take that loss. And so now Miami's resume is a 9-1 team. Their best wins are against Louisville and Duke. Their strength of schedule is 39th. And they're 1-0 against the top 25. So it's not bad. It's not bad.

I just don't love where they're at if they were to lose again. And here's the thing. If they lose in the regular season, there's a good chance that they don't get to the ACC championship game. Clemson might get into that spot. Because remember, Clemson's last ACC game is actually this weekend against Pitt. So if they win, then Miami cannot stub their toe or else Clemson would go to the ACC championship game. So they can't lose in the regular season, Miami.

And then even if they were to lose in the ACC championship game, I don't love their argument as in that case, like an 11 and 2 over some of those SEC teams. In particular, a Georgia with the schedule that's, they've played. Right? So Miami is kind of in a situation where their backs are against the wall. I believe that Miami is going to have to win out in order to go to the playoff. A loss at any moment is going to prevent them from being in this college football

playoff. A loss before the end of the regular season keeps them out of the ACC championship game. And a loss in the ACC championship game elevates probably SMU into the playoff. Now they're going to have to win an argument against a 10 and 2 SEC team. And I don't think that they win that argument. I just really don't. Not with the schedule they've played and not with some of the games that they've won in really close fashion. You know, against, let's call them not great teams.

Cal comes to mind. Virginia Tech comes to mind in particular in the way that they won those games. That's why I was surprised they are ahead of those SEC teams. I was pretty surprised by that. And then the last takeaway for me is just going to be like the Big Ten looks like they have the inside track if not just a sheer lock on at least four spots with those teams all in the top five at this point. Obviously, Indiana and Ohio State still have to play. Oregon, you know, they continue to win and they're going to be in the Big Ten championship game

and that will put them into the college football playoff. And Penn State really doesn't have much left on that schedule, in particular for a team in a program under James Franklin, that does not lose to unranked teams. That's just not something that they do anymore. Now, do they lose some of the big games? Yes, Michigan in previous years, Ohio State this year. Yes, they have, but they don't lose unranked games. So you wouldn't assume that that would start now. So the Big Ten looks like they're in a really good position to get four. Because even if Indiana were to lose in Columbus, I do think that they would stay within those top 11 teams and that they would probably get a spot, which means that you've got those four teams.

I think that the ACC and the Big 12 probably are only going to get one team based on these rankings tonight. I don't think you're going to get Miami and SMU. I don't think that you're probably not going to get a Colorado and BYU if Colorado were to win. So what would it look like? Well, here's the bracket. Here's the bracket as it would lay out as what they gave us tonight. One would be Oregon, two Texas, three, BYU, for Miami. that five spot becomes, I think, a really great spot because five spot would be Ohio State.

They would play the 12 seed, Boise, and Columbus. The sixth seed then would be Penn State, and they would host Ole Miss. That would be a great game. Ole Miss in Happy Valley. The seventh seed would be Indiana, and they would host Alabama. I'm sorry, that sounds awesome. Anybody else want to see that? I would love to see that.

And then the 8-9 game would be Notre Dame having to go to Tennessee and play in Knoxville. That would be a great playoff. Now, what you see in this bracket that is a bit jarring is that Georgia would be on the outside looking in. Okay. So this is why I maintain that if you start getting status quo up here, I think Georgia's got to beat Tennessee. I think Georgia has to beat Tennessee. Then you start getting into a bunch of those SEC. on the bubble and you've got a huge debate at that point.

But this Georgia team is up against it this weekend. That is easily one of my biggest takeaways. This Indiana BYU thing is not going away. They could probably both lose a game, maybe less so BYU, but certainly Indiana with where they're sitting at in the top five of these playoff rankings. But I just look at that playoff, man, and I'm like, I can't wait for this.

I really can't. And by the way, one of those playoff games on one of those days is going to kick off at noon. I couldn't stop myself. I couldn't stop myself. Listen, folks, I want you to know something. I love this sport. I really do. I don't love it more than my family. I don't love it more than my Lord and Savior. But I love college football. And I am so thankful that all of you are as passionate as you are about this sport. I really am. And so I want you to know that everywhere I go and everywhere that I get an opportunity to call a game, you're getting everything from me, every single week. Because you deserve it because college football fans are freaking awesome. Love you guys. We'll be back tomorrow with picks and previews. We've got a great week of slates, a slate of games here.

I'm headed to Colorado. And yes, we're kicking that at 10 a.m. So, you know, Ohio State fans, think about two hours earlier. You know, maybe just think about that. Colorado is going to host Utah. Big noon kickoff is going to be there. Big noon Saturday is going to be there. And I cannot wait to showcase those two teams and programs and some of those players as well, including Travis Hunter, the unicorn, who I think is probably going to be the Heisman

trophy winner. Again, thank you for listening to this show. Thank you for watching this show. Subscribe if you're on YouTube. Rate and review us wherever you're listening. Follow us on social at Joel Clat Show. Have a blessed week. We'll be back tomorrow.