The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings Reaction: How much is Brand Bias affecting the Rankings?

Episode Date: November 6, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the 12-team era! He gives his biggest takeaways from the rankings including whether brand bias is influencing Indiana and BYU’s places in the rankings. He discusses their cases over a team like #4 Miami and compares Indiana to some blue-blood resumes from the past to show how they are being treated differently. Klatt also points out why Notre Dame looks comfortable at #10 right now but explains how they could win out and actually be left out of the Playoff field. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Miami is a brand, Indiana and BYU or not. That's it. That's it. And I think that's a problem. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again.

Hey, what's up everybody? Welcome into the Joel Clatt Show. I am Joel Clat. This show, as always, is brought to you by Hampton, by Hilton. Hey, let's take a break from the election. Just real quick, right? And let's get to some CFP rankings. I think that would be a lot more fun, and I know that you would as well. Hey, listen, wherever you're listening to this podcast, make sure to rate and review us.

We'd really appreciate that. Share it with a friend. Wherever you like to social media, you can find us there. You can find us at Joel Clat Show, wherever you're in social media and participating in all that space. And then more than anything, we encourage you, get over to the YouTube channel, because you're going to want to go be a subscriber of the Joel Clat Show. Show channel on YouTube. Make sure to subscribe. Make sure to like the videos, comment down below. And then remember, we do have up currently right now that behind the scenes behind the broadcast

video that is on the YouTube page, it's only there and it's really well done. The team here at the Joel Clash show did an unbelievable job shooting the behind the scenes, behind the broadcast from the Wisconsin-Alabama week. We did a live show that week in Madison. It was really awesome. And so I encourage you guys to go check that out because it's a really awesome video. All right. We've got college football playoff rankings and we've been waiting for these now for the better course of the month. And I was so fascinated to see what we were going to get and where some of these teams specifically would land. And now we have those answers. So let's get into it. Let's see what they gave us here. The new top 25 as it is given to us by the college football

playoff committee. We're not going to read all of them off. Those are you on YouTube. You guys can check that out. Obviously, Army at an undefeated record. They're at 25. Colorado and they're at 20. That's always interesting and fun to see. And then the top 12 remained basically the same as what the AP voters gave us. The only difference being that Ohio State was two and Georgia is three in this poll, whereas the AP gave us Georgia at two and Ohio State at three.

Other than that, it was exactly the same. Miami 4, Texas 5, Penn State. Tennessee 7, Indiana 8, BYU at 9, Notre Dame 10, Alabama, 11, and Boise State at 12. So that's rounding out that 12. What's more, I think, interesting, as I think all of us think that this is more interesting, is the bracket. So we've got the rankings, and then we can kind of throw these teams into the bracket, and here we go. So what you have in that 8-9 matchup is Tennessee hosting Indiana, and the 512 matchup is Boise State going to Ohio State to Colise. Alabama would have to go to Austin and play Texas in the 11-6 matchup,

and then Notre Dame would have to play Penn State in Happy Valley in that 10-7 matchup with the four-bys being Oregon, Georgia, BYU, and Miami. The quick question I have, just before we move off of the bracket and actually get some opinion about what they gave us here in terms of these rankings is you look at that bracket and you look at this bottom left of the bracket, the 12-5 game Boise at Ohio State, And then the winner goes to play BYU in a neutral site. Is that a better position for Ohio State at 5 than Oregon at 1 or Miami at 3? Because Oregon at 1 would play the winner of Tennessee, Indiana.

And Miami at 3 plays the winner of Texas, Alabama. That's a terrible spot to be in if you're Miami. And if you're Ohio State, you've got to look at that and think to yourself, man, this is a decent path for us. Maybe that's minimizing BYU, and maybe I shouldn't do that. But I would just throw that out there. That five seed could be a really coveted spot when we're talking about a format with 12 teams and four buys. And those four buys going to the top ranked champions from around college football.

So it's something to just keep in the back of your mind here as we move forward during the month of November. Now let's get to kind of like what we think about this. Okay, so what do we think about these playoff rankings? Well, I'm not as been out of shape as I was in previous years, largely because of the amount of teams. And I think you probably felt that as you were watching this like I was and following along with it. You're like, yeah, this doesn't seem like as big a deal. And then I started thinking more and more about it. And I thought to myself, actually, you know what?

No, this is a huge deal because it's setting the table for what we're about to see for the rest of the month. and it's also paving the path for all of these teams, all of these teams, in terms of what they need to do in order to make the playoff and what they cannot do in order to make the playoff. So let's go over this. Let's first dive into who I felt like was ranked too low by the college football playoff committee. There are two teams that I felt like were ranked way too low based on their resume,

their eye test, all the above. And that's Indiana and BYU. Indiana and BYU were ranked, were ranked, excuse me, way too low. I'm looking at this and I see where they're at and I just think to myself, there is only one conclusion for Indiana and BYU being where they are, and that is brand bias. There's no other conclusion. There just really isn't. I'm a big believer in the I test.

This is how I rank teams. I've covered both of these teams in home games. I've watched all of their tape. And I think Indiana is far better than what the committee ranked them. Now, to be fair, I have BYU at 10. So even below what the committee ranked them. But again, I am unapologetically just about the I test and the film. And to me, BYU is about 10.

Now, the inconsistency is this, is that if you want to use the eye test, Indiana would be far better and far higher than what they are right now in the ranking. And in the rankings, you're telling us because of a team like Texas or Tennessee or Penn State that the I test matters. And I'm here to tell you that like Indiana passes the I test more so than even some of those teams. What other team right now has the type of performance resume, I don't know talking about schedule resume, but performance resume. of Indiana. They've beaten every team that they've played by 14 or more. Their average margin of victory right now is in the high 20s is like 29. They're the number two scoring offense in the country. They're the number seven scoring defense in the country. This is a really freaking good football team.

And if they had any other logo on the side of their helmet, they would be ranked a lot higher. And I think that the same could be said about BYU. Because listen, if you want to say like they don't have the actual schedule resume in order to be ranked higher, you might have an argument. You might have an argument. And I get it. You see their strength of schedule. It's sitting there at, what is it, a hundred and third, you know, but their point differential right now is first. Their best wins, not great, Nebraska and Washington, but they're still nine and oh. So maybe they don't pass the resume test. But here's the problem is that if we're just going by a resume test, then that means BYU would be higher, which they're not. So the inconsistency of the college

football playoff committee is what is so infuriating for me. It's infuriating, which speaks to a clear brand bias in that room. If either of these teams had a different logo on the side of their helmet, they'd be ranked a lot higher because there's not a lot of difference between these resumes and what Miami has given us, and they're right up there. What's the difference? Miami is Miami. They have national championships and they have a brand in our sport. If you're going by resume, BYU is sitting there with two top 20 wins. So they've beaten SMU, which right now is looking great in the ACC. That was on the road.

They've beaten Kansas State. This is a team that a lot of us think highly of and I think still could play themselves into the Big 12 championship game. Those are two top 20 wins. The committee themselves thinks highly of SMU and thinks highly of Kansas State. BYU strength of schedule is a lot higher than Indiana. Their strength of record is in the top five in the country. We've seen them win games in several different ways. We've seen them win with offense.

We've seen them win with defense. We've seen them win with special teams. You know, this seems like a team of destiny. Really gritty quarterback and Rets laugh. I like him a lot. It's a veteran defense that's very tough at the defensive line. If you're going by resume, BYU would be higher. If you're going by eye test, Indiana would be a lot higher. Indiana and BYU are getting screwed based on brand bias.

It is so evident and clear that it's beyond funny at this point. I'm just going to do something. This is going to cement this for all of you. Let's take a look at a couple of other brands from previous years. And I know that the committee is not exactly the same as they've been in previous years, but there are a lot of the same people. And so you do have to understand that every committee is going to be a little bit different in terms of their fingerprint of what they prioritize and how they rank teams versus previous iterations of the committee. Having said that, it's never all that off. And last year, we had two teams that were major brands that we all thought very highly of from the beginning of the year. So those are two things that BYU and Indiana don't have at their disposal this year.

So they didn't start high in the rankings to begin with in terms of the AP poll or what we thought of them as a college football public. And they don't have major brands, right? They're not blue bloods of the sport. They don't generate massive ratings for their games. Okay. But last year, there were two teams that have huge brand. And we thought a lot of early in the season.

And guess what? Their resumes at this point in the year are identical to Indiana. So I'm not even going to give the committee the benefit of the doubt of like, well, they're just going by the letter of the law and the resume. No, no, no, screw that. This committee showed me last year that they would overlook that if you had the brand and if you had what I would call the preconceived bias that you're a great program. Let me show you what I'm talking about. This year, Indiana is 9 and 0 Strength of Schedule 103. Their point differential is 32.9, and they're ranked eighth in the country. They were unranked to begin the year. Last year, we had Michigan and Georgia, both of these

teams. They started the year far different. They started the year ranked two and one in the country. You're looking at the Michigan one right now. So Michigan was started ranked number two in the country. At this point last year in the first playoff rankings, Michigan was 8 and 0. Their best wins was were Minnesota and Rutgers. Their strength of schedule was 11th. Remember, Indiana's is 103, and their point differential was 34.8, so only two points more

in terms of point differential per game. And yet, where was Michigan sitting? Number three in the first college football playoff rankings. Number three. Now we look at Georgia. So Georgia was sitting here last year, and Georgia was 8-0. Georgia's best wins were Kentucky and Florida.

Their strength of schedule was 100th. Remember, Indiana's 103rd. And their point differential last year per game was 25.8. So basically seven points less, a touchdown less, in terms of differential. And they were ranked. Number two. So the committee showed us last year that if you have the preconceived notion

that you're a great program and if you've got that blue blood, brand on the side of your helmet, or if you've got those maize wings on your helmet, that they will overlook your poor resume as long as you're undefeated and as long as you're taking care of business and beating teams by wide margins. But that's not offered to Indiana this year. That is a case study and brand bias. And here's the thing is I think it's going to matter and it's going to matter because of the team that I think is too high. Okay. So here's the team that I think is too high. If Indiana and BYU are the two teams that I think are too

low, then we've got to look at, well, then who's too high? Joel, well, I think the team that's too high right now is number four, Miami. Miami is a bit too high. They've got wins right now over Louisville and Duke. Those are their best wins. Their strength of schedule is 46th. So granted, it's a higher than Indiana and

BYU. But you look up and it's like, they aren't controlling games like those other two teams. And by the way, not even close. They've given up 31 points in four of their last five games. We've seen them play these really tight, weird games with teams like Virginia Tech and Cal. They got really lucky to win both of those games because it could have been a call or a replay reversal or a correct replay. Either one of those games could have gone the opposite direction.

and yet they're sitting way up there at number four. I love Cam Ward, and I think that Miami's done a really nice job. And at this point, with my Clemson love crumbling to the ground, and I'm going to own that one, like Miami's likely going to win the ACC. And so I like Miami, I'm just telling you that, like, based on the resume, their resume, their eye test, they don't look quite like Indiana and BYU. and if last year you're going to overlook Michigan and Georgia, then we know exactly what's going on. Miami is a brand, Indiana and BYU or not.

That's it. That's it. And I think that's a problem. I think that's a problem. And the reason I think that that's a problem is because of the reason this all matters. Every time that we get to these rankings and I start to discuss what I like about them and what I don't like about them. And let's be fair, I discuss more. like what I don't like about them.

I always get from people in the comments and they say things like, well, Joel, it doesn't matter. It'll all play out. These rankings don't matter anyways. But the problem is, I believe that they absolutely do matter for a lot of different reasons. But one of those is that in particular this year, as opposed to last year in a 14-model, but in particular this year, it's laying the groundwork for what's going to happen over the next. month because I look at those rankings and I can see the top five, six, maybe even seven teams that are going to get the benefit of the doubt even if they lose over the course of the next month because they're getting the benefit of the doubt already.

Whereas that's not extended to teams like Indiana and BYU. So even though these teams are undefeated, I'm sitting there looking at Indiana and BYU and I'm thinking to myself, they don't have any margin because that road is being paved by these rankings. This road is being paved by the committee in terms of what do they think of these teams. That's why it matters. And to me, it's self-evident. It's very self-evident. So Miami getting the brand bump and being four is set up to where they're probably fine.

I don't even know if they have to win the ACC championship game. Let's just say that they lose to SMU. Let's say SMU gets there and they lose to SMU and Miami is 12 and 1. Well, the committee has shown us what they think of Miami and they think very highly of Miami. And that's fine. That's fine. I like Miami as well. But they're going to be afforded the opportunity to slip up.

Now let's play that same game with Indiana and BYU. And it becomes a much more precarious situation because of what's going on after about six in those rankings. If you lose and you're any of those teams, I don't know. I don't know who's winning. Let's just say SMU wins and they're taking a spot in there. What if Iowa State or Kansas State or Colorado win the Big 12 and then you've got maybe two teams from the Big 12? You're setting yourself up for a lack of margin if you're Indiana because the committee doesn't think very highly of them currently. And that's why I think it's a problem.

So you're sitting there if you're Indiana with Ohio State still on the schedule and you're like, wait, do we have to beat Ohio State in order to go? See, some people would think yes. And based on these rankings, they might have to. It comes down to this. If they beat Ohio State, destiny is in their own hands, they can control their entire path forward. That's what they'll be talking about. That's what they should talk about. If they don't beat Ohio State, then I think it matters how they lose.

then it matters how the game goes down. What's the margin? Were they close late? What did it look like? Because perception at this point is that the committee is not giving them the benefit of the doubt that this is a really good football team. That committee needs to start watching film because I think Indiana is very good football team. Indiana, and by the way, BYU is in this, I think they're in this conversation as well.

because BYU where they're at, you can't guarantee me that even if they go to the Big 12 championship game and then they were to lose that, would they still get in? I don't know. I don't know. Depends on what happens behind them. You see the top end of this ranking in those top six spots, I know that they can continue to be in the playoff even with a loss. I know that because the committee is telling me that right now. I don't know that that's the fact for the teams, you know, eight and below. And that's where Indiana and BYU are sitting. And that brings me to this next point. And I'm sitting there and I'm looking at this next team and I'm thinking to myself,

man, they're in now. But do they actually control their own destiny? And this is where I thought it was interesting to me where what are we going to do with Notre Dame? Like, if you actually sit there and look at Notre Dame, Daman, you think to yourself, are they safe even if they went out? I think the answer is maybe. Maybe. Right now they're 7 and 1. Their best wins are Louisville, Navy, and then the big one that's going to help them, Texas A&M in that opening week of the season in College Station. But their strength of schedule is 75th. Their loss is terrible. At home to Northern Illinois. And what's

helping them right now is that they're 2 and O against CFP top 25 teams. That's helping them a lot. But they have very little left on their schedule, very little. Okay, they do have Army, but Army's barely in there as a ranked team. They're 25th right now. USC has fallen off the map. And so I'd like to say like there's not a lot of heat on the rest of that schedule. So let's just play this out. Let's just play this out. They beat Florida State. They should, Virginia, Army and USC. And they're sitting there as a 11 and 1. Okay, well, they would probably be sitting about where they're at. You start to play this out and it's like, well, what happens if Alabama beats LSU?

Aren't they going to pass Notre Dame? Yes, likely they would. What happens if LSU beats Alabama? Wouldn't they probably pass Notre Dame? They probably would. What happens if Texas A&M ends up beating Texas later in the season? Wouldn't they pass Notre Dame? Yep, probably. What happens if SMU beats Miami? wouldn't they pass Notre Dame? Yep, I think that they would. What happens if one of those teams, Iowa State, Kansas State, Colorado, get into the Big 12 championship game and beat BYU.

Well, now you're starting to be compared as an 11 and 1 against, you know, 12 and 1 Miami, 11 and 1 Indiana, 12 and 1, BYU, you know, 10 and 2 Alabama or 10 into LSU or 10 and 2 Texas A&M? The best case scenario would be if they could be compared directly to A&M because they would have the head-to-head win over them from the beginning of the year. But I'm just trying to tell you, like, I don't think it's a guarantee that Notre Dame controls their own destiny. And that was kind of evident after we started really diving in and looking at this. And I was looking through all of these teams. I started to think about, well,

whose path is what and how do they play themselves in or how do they play themselves out? and I think Notre Dame right now as the 10 seed, they seem to be fine and safe now, but I just don't trust where they're at based on what's behind them and the games that those teams still have to play. Still have to play. So that's it. Those are my takeaways from this first edition of the playoff rankings.

Again, folks, look at it and look at it and look at it again. And I am not wrong. There is clear brand bias going on against Indiana and BYU. Clear. Clear as day. We will be back tomorrow with some picks and previews,

and you're going to want to watch that because we're still on a heater. We were 5 and 0 last week, 5 and 0 again, and we will be back with our picks and previews for tomorrow's show. Can't wait for that. You can follow us wherever you like

to social media, agile class show. Be sure to go to YouTube, subscribe, leave a comment, and check out that behind the broadcast video. I'm telling you, it's awesome. If you want to take 25 minutes away from the election, please do so. Watch that video. It's really cool.

I think you're going to like it. Leave a comment below and tell us what you think about it. Have a great day, everybody. And yeah, be safe out there. We'll talk to you tomorrow.