The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings Reaction: Is Alabama a lock to make the Playoff?

Episode Date: December 4, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the latest College Football Playoff Rankings as Alabama currently holds the last at-large spot in the field. Did the Committee get it right? Klatt compares the case for the Crimson Tide against teams like Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina. He also breaks down who would win a potential argument for the last spot between SMU and Alabama on Selection Sunday if the Mustangs were upset by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I don't say this a lot, which is why it's like, it's a little bit hard for me, but I think that the committee got it right on the bubble. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Welcome into the program.

This is the Joel Clatt show. I am Joel Clatt. This show is always brought to you by Hampton, by Hilton. and we appreciate you being here. As always, we are up over 180,000 subscribers on YouTube, so continue to grow that number, invite a friend into the YouTube. We're going to have all sorts of great content for you here

as we roll into the playoffs. And listen, it should be a really, really fun month and a half, two months until we actually crown a champion. Remember to subscribe to the YouTube channel. Go ahead and hit the notification button and leave a comment below and we can interact down there. wherever you're social mediaing. That's not a word.

But whatever, you get what I'm saying. Wherever you like to social media, we're out there as well at Joel Clashow. And then wherever you are listening to this podcast, you can go ahead and rate and review us and obviously share with a friend. We've got rankings reaction here tonight as the CFP committee gave us a new ranking. And this one, this is a big one because now the regular season is over. We're heading into the postseason. We've got conference championship games this week.

weekend, which means there's not going to be a ton of movement from the rankings that we just saw on Tuesday night. So we probably have exactly what we need to say who's going to be in the playoff. And I think that they gave us those answers on Tuesday night. So let's dive into it and take a look and evaluate what they did. And remember, I have not been a huge fan of the committee and the way that they've gone about their business for a long time. So tonight we've got to evaluate exactly what they gave us. Here's the top 25 if you're watching on YouTube. You can see it right there. And then if you're listening, Memphis is 25. Army is 24. Colorado, 23, then Syracuse, Illinois, UNLV up at 20. They're going to play for the Mountain West

Championship on Friday night on Fox, by the way. Missouri's 19, BYU is 18. Clemson is at 17 after that loss. Iowa State and Arizona State are 15 and 16. They'll play in the Big 12 championship game this weekend. South Carolina is at 14, Ole Miss, 13, 12 is Miami, 11. Alabama. Boise States 10, Indiana is 9. SMU is 8, Tennessee is 7, Ohio State down four spots after the loss to Michigan. They're number 6, Georgia's 5, Notre Dame 4, Penn State 3, Texas 2, and Oregon is 1.

So that's for all of you that are listening to this podcast. So we've got the rankings. Okay, so what do we really think? what really matters in these rankings? Well, in the new format with the 12 teams, the bubble matters. And it's eerily similar now to the college basketball tournament, the NCAA tournament, where the focus is really on the bubble. I'm not even really focused on the one seeds, because that'll actually get played out, you know, the buys and those top four seeds. That'll get played out this weekend for conference championship games. So we can focus on that next week.

This week is more of a bubble conversation because the bubble is not going to move. it might a little bit. I'll get into that a little bit later, but the bubble is largely settled now. These teams are not going to move. And I just want to revert back and reminisce back. Last week, I told you during all of our shows, really, but we talked about the bubble and what the bubble was going to look like. And I said that the bubble was going to come down to Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. And that's exactly what has happened. After South Carolina beat Clemson, Clemson, Clemson, drops all the way down. And now you've got this conversation and this is what the committee had to discuss. So what they gave us was Alabama at 11, Miami at 12, Ole Miss at 13, and South Carolina at 14. So that's what we need to evaluate. Did the committee get it right on the bubble? That's what we've got to think about. We've got to talk about and we've got to actually figure out. So here's what I want to do. Since they put Alabama inside this playoff and they are the best bubble team, okay? and everybody else on the outside.

I want to take Alabama, team by team, and directly compare them and see if they got it wrong. Let's see if there is a crack in the armor of what the college football playoff committee actually gave us as it relates to Alabama. Okay? Everyone's wondering. And before I start on this, I just want to say that this doesn't feel like previous years when, remember when we've had the years like the first year of the playoff TCU was left on the outside? Georgia last year was left. on the outside. There have been teams in the four-team playoff that get left out Florida State last

year. And you're just like, that is a kick in the gut because that's a team that could potentially win the national championship. And it's just like you feel a great deal of sympathy for that team, their players, their coaches, and their fan base. I don't feel that way this year on the bubble. There might come a year in the 12-team playoff. I don't believe that's going to be the case because all of these teams had ample opportunity to play themselves inside of this tournament, inside of this playoff, and not put themselves on the bubble. Remember, they put themselves here with multiple losses, not just a singular loss in a tough environment, in a tough game, and a tough matchup, but multiple losses. So my sympathy level for these teams is much lower

than it's been in previous years when we've seen really good teams that maybe lost one game or in Florida State's case, no games and lost their quarterback, and then they're left out of the playoff. So I wanted to start with that before we get into this. But now let's actually compare these resumes. Did the committee get it right with Alabama over all these other bubble teams? Let's start with South Carolina. Did Alabama over South Carolina make sense and did the committee get it right? Well, let's evaluate it. This is what I immediately go to is they beat them head to head. This committee has constantly honored head to head. and rightly so. I'm a proponent of that. I really am.

And so if you have similar records and one team beat the other, you should be ranked ahead of the other. Now, it can stop there or it can continue because I actually think that there are other things that lean towards Alabama. I think the best win Alabama has over Georgia is better than the best win South Carolina has. I think that you look at the number of wins over ranked teams that lies with Alabama. Their strength of schedule is absolutely comparable. So it's very equal. And then you can also go to a common opponent win that, or excuse me, just a common opponent that each of these two had won the game and in emphatic fashion, dominant fashion,

Alabama beating LSU at LSU. Meanwhile, what did South Carolina do? They lost that game. that's to me something that's got to be looked at. Got to be looked at. All of those categories, I think lean towards Alabama. I think they absolutely got it right, putting Alabama over South Carolina. And that's actually the easiest one.

I think it gets harder with the other two, with Ole Miss and with Miami. But let's move to Ole Miss now. So bubble teams, let's compare them, Alabama, and now Ole Miss. And this one is much more difficult. When you look up and you're comparing these two teams, Bama does have a better strength of schedule, and I think you start right there. Now, they both have that quality win over Georgia.

You could make an argument. Ole Miss was better against Georgia than even Alabama was, but they both have that great win. Ole Miss has, I think, a much worse loss in Kentucky, and more on that later. Alabama has more wins over the top 25 than Ole Miss. also go back to that common opponent, which I just did with South Carolina, and that common opponent is again, LSU. And now this time, both of those games were in Death Valley.

Now, I get it, Ole Miss led for the entirety of the game, but they lost the game against the Tigers. Meanwhile, Alabama rolls in there and beat them handily, handily. And then you get to this idea of, like, who has the worst loss? I think Kentucky is the worst loss, even though you can say, yeah, Vandy and Oklahoma are not great losses for Alabama. We understand that. Kentucky and Florida are not great losses for Ole Miss, and we understand that. But do we really understand the level to which Kentucky's win over Ole Miss was, in a lot of ways, unprecedented this year? I don't think people realize this. Kentucky won one game against power four opponents this year. One. that game happened to be at Ole Miss.

See, that's where all of a sudden the separation occurs. You get separation in common opponent. You get separation in the depth of their worst loss. Because everything else is quite similar, and even Bama is better with the strength of schedule. So you've got the same record. You've got the same best win. You've got more quality wins for Alabama.

And then you go to the losses and you're like, I'm sorry, Kentucky won how many games against the SEC? One. One how many games against Power 4 opponents? One. And that game was at Ole Miss. So that game is essentially knocking Ole Miss out of the playoff. I think you could also point towards, you know, that game against LSU in which they had

the lead the entire time. There was a penalty on a late hit against Nussmeyer on a pick that would have put basically the game away. Like any of these little things could happen and put Ole Miss firmly in the playoff. But again, that's why my sympathy is very low. Because you had ample to opportunities. You had three losses. You lost to a team that won one football game against power four opponents. That was Kentucky. So, you know, that loss to Kentucky is ultimately, that's too much. And that's why the committee did get it right with Alabama overall miss. I firmly believe that. Now we go to

Miami. And this one is a little bit, I think, more difficult because Miami's record is better than South Carolina and Ole Miss. So now you've got the 10 and 2 team. But it's in the ACC. I think it's in Bama's benefit that the ACC is still playing the eight conference game schedule, just like the SEC is. So now you don't have this idea or thought or theory that the league schedule, while the league isn't as good as the SEC, but it's as difficult or comparable because they play more league games. And let's face it,

I think that the ACC was really down this year. When you look at like the middle of the ACC and the bottom of the ACC more specifically, it's not very good. And Miami had the benefit of playing one of the weaker schedules in the conference. In fact, all the teams that finished up top, when you're talking about SMU, Miami and Clemson, they all had ridiculously favorable schedules as it related to their conference schedule with only eight games.

So now you've got this resume up and it's like, okay, I get it. Miami is a 10 and 2 team. Alabama is a 9 and 3 team. But when you look at the strength of schedule, that starts to even itself out. Miami's strength of schedule is 55. Alabama's is 17. Miami does not have a win against a currently ranked team. Not one.

In fact, they're 0 and 1 against the top 25. Alabama is three and one against the top 25. So then you go to the best wins. And you're like, okay, like, what are the best wins? I think that the best wins for Miami are basically Louisville and Duke. Meanwhile, Alabama has beaten Georgia and South Carolina. That's not even close. That is not even close.

That I think it makes up for the game. I think it makes up for the game, meaning like the extra loss. In my estimation, you look at the worst. loss. Now, that's more comfortable. You've got probably Vandy for Alabama. The Oklahoma game wasn't great. Syracuse wasn't great this last weekend for Miami. And then you've got the recency bias, which is Miami has lost two of their last three games, Georgia Tech and Syracuse. And both of those teams were playing fairly well. So it's like, did Miami beat anybody this year that you could say was playing well at the time? I don't think that they were. Even when I look at

this win against Florida, I think in hindsight, it looks better because Florida was able to beat Ole Miss. But this is a different Florida team that we're talking about at the beginning of the year. This is the Fire Billy Napier Florida team, not the DJ Lagway Florida team that was playing so much better. So even that plays into it as well. I think it is a tougher argument. I think it is it's tough to say this. Games still have to matter.

But the strength of schedule for Alabama and all those other factors, ranked wins, best win, recency, and the way that they're playing now with losing two of their last three games, speaking of the hurricanes, I think that they got it right. I think the timing of those losses

was correct. And I don't say this a lot, which is why it's like, it's a little bit hard for me, but I think that the committee got it right on the bubble. I really do. If I'm looking at those four teams and I'm ranking on,

I think I put Alabama above all of those teams. I think that the more difficult one because of the recency of the way they've played in the last month is South Carolina. Because Ole Miss has not played well lately and Bama hasn't played all that well lately. And then you get into like, yeah, but Alabama beat South Carolina and that game has to matter. It has to matter. That's the one that's like as much as you would want to say South Carolina might be playing better than all of those teams right now. And you might be right.

You cannot put South Carolina over Alabama because of the head-to-head matchup. You can't do it. You can't do it. And I do think Bama wins the argument against Miami. That strength of schedule difference is a real thing. The best win difference is a huge deal. Beating Georgia and hanging on for that win

is an obvious huge feather in the cap for the Alabama Crimson Tide. And at this point, like, I look at the bubble, and I think that the committee ranked these teams properly. I think that this was the right ranking. Putting Alabama inside of the playoff at this point was the correct way to go. And now it will be asked, are they in for sure? Are they in for sure?

Well, the playoff is basically set, all right? And I told you this last week as well. There's eight teams that are definitely in the playoff. And then you've got these three teams, games that are basically playing games. So now we're going to have the Big 12 championship game. Winner of Iowa State, Arizona State, going to the playoff. You're going to have the Mountain West Championship game. UNLV, Boise State, winner of that game, going to the playoff.

Then you have the ACC championship game. Clemson, SMU, winner of that game, going to the playoff. Now, this is where it gets a little bit dicey, is that if Clemson were to beat SMU, now we still have a conversation next week about the bubble. You see, if SMU wins, Alabama is firmly in, all the seeds are basically there. Everyone's going to be seated based on the outcomes of the games of the conference championship games, and we're going to have a college football playoff based on the rankings that we just saw on Tuesday night. Okay, so Alabama would definitely be in. So Crimson Tide fans, you're rolling with the Mustangs this week.

You do not want Dabo Sweeney and the Clemson Tigers to win. Because if they win and SMU loses that game, now Alabama is going to be in a bubble conversation with SMU. And truth be told, here's where I'm at with this one. I want to evaluate that conversation and that resume difference, that debate right now. Because when I initially thought of this, I thought to myself, truth be told,

SMU is definitely going to be in. Even if they lose the conference championship game, they're definitely going to be in. There's no way that the committee would hold that against them, that they qualified for their conference championship game, only to hold them liable for a loss at that point with a 13th data point. That was absolutely my thought yesterday. And then I dug into it,

and you actually compare these teams. And here's the deal. And I'm not going to get too far into this, because I know it's going to be kind of convoluted. But the process in which they ranked teams down in Dallas, I've taken part in the MOC, in the CFP Mock Committee. And the process with which they rank teams is that you're basically always ranking sets of four. Okay, so you're not taking the entire top 25 and debating the entire top 25.

They break it out into these pods. And so you're always debating like this set of four teams. at a time and you're ranking them and re-ranking them and arguing about them and debating them and putting the resumes up and doing all that work. I firmly believe, based on what the rankings were, that they gave us on Tuesday night, I don't think that SMU and Alabama have ever actually been directly compared to one another. So they're a few spots away from each other. SMU is 8, Alabama is 11. And the resumes right now, 11 and 1 SMU, 9 and 3 Alabama, it, truth be told, they probably shouldn't be compared.

But if SMU loses this game to Clemson, they will be compared to Alabama. And so in the event that they lose, we're going to have a resume conversation. We're going to have a debate between the Mustangs and the Crimson Tide. So what does that look like? Well, the first thing that the committee is going to have to do is that they're going to have to decide how much they actually value the conference championship game. How much do you value getting to your conference championship game? But here's the problem with that. Not every conference championship game is equal.

I think the ACC is clearly the fourth best power four conference in the country. So that's number one. Number two is there have been different paths to championship games. As the conferences have expanded and we've gone to the super conference era, what we've seen is that there is a lot of difference between the tough conference schedules, and the week conference schedules. And it's a flip of the coin. It is a total lottery, whether you're going to hit the jackpot and get a soft schedule,

a favorable schedule in your conference, or a very difficult schedule. We've seen this and talked about this at length when it comes to the SEC, when it comes to the Big Ten. We haven't talked about it a lot with the ACC, and we should. Why? Because the middle and bottom of the ACC is not very good at all. You see, as a conference, the Big 12 is actually better because they're much deeper than the ACC. I think that we got caught up in Miami's success during the year, SMU success during the year, even Clemson's success during the year.

And we started to convince ourselves, the college football public, that the ACC was somehow like better than it was. But in reality, you just had three teams that were winning a lot of games against a very average conference because all three of those teams played a favorable ACC. schedule, only eight games in this instance. I think that that's going to have to come into the equation, at least in part, when this committee decides how much they're going to value the fact that SMU is actually playing for an ACC championship. Previous years, I have strongly argued that that should not penalize you. And to a large extent, I still believe that until you actually dig into this.

Let's look at the path that SMU took to get to this point where they're playing. for an ACC championship game. And by the way, they've had a great year. So this is not going to be a knock on SMU. It's just the reality. The path to their championship game has to be evaluated. What was that path? Well, one of the easier conference schedules that anybody in the country played.

They played eight conference games. Only two of those games. Only two of the eight were played against teams. that finished the year with an above 500 ACC record. That means six of their eight conference games were played against teams that were at or below 500 in conference. That's just not good enough. That's how you get a strength of schedule like 75,

which is drastically different than Alabama's 17th ranked strength of schedule. So yes, they only have one loss, but as soon as they were to get a second loss, if Clemson is able to win the ACC, now they will be directly compared. And Alabama already won an argument against a two-loss ACC team. And as we've established on this program,

rightly so. Rightly so. So then you would have to go through the entire thing that I just did with all the bubble teams and you would have to evaluate not just the path of the championship game, but the schedule overall. And then you would get to the best wins.

You get to the best wins, realize very quickly, if SMU loses to Clemson, they will have lost against the two best teams that they've faced and the only two ranked teams that they've faced. They would then be 0 and 2 against ranked opponents, not one win against a ranked opponent. Their loss was to BYU in the non-conference. Then this loss would be to Clemson and the ACCC championship game, which would mean their best win would be Louisville. Their next best win would be Duke. that is a far cry from beating Georgia and beating South Carolina and playing the schedule that Alabama did,

along with Alabama having three wins against ranked teams. They're three and one against the top 25. I get it. The Oklahoma loss wasn't great. I really get it. But man, wouldn't you find it just a little bit difficult to put SMU in the college football playoff if they lost to the two best teams that they faced all year long?

that's tough. That's tough. I genuinely believe that when you look at it that way, I think that they lose the comparison to Alabama. I think that the committee would put Alabama in the college football playoff over SMU if SMU loses to Clemson,

which means Alabama's in right now. I think that you can set your watch to it. I think that Alabama is in. Because in a comparison, in a direct comparison, they're going to win the argument over SMU. You cannot value playing in the ACC championship game like you value playing in the SEC championship game or the Big Ten championship game.

Those paths are drastically different. in particular when you took the path that SMU did. Rhett Lashley has done a marvelous job. SMU has done fantastic. I love watching SMU on film. I think that they're a really good team. I think they'll have a hard time beating Clemson because Clemson is like steeled in these environments, man.

I don't think that it's going to be too big for them. Is SMU going to roll in in their first year in that conference and just go undefeated in ACC play and then beat Clemson? Well, the best team that they faced was BYU and they lost. This is the next best team that they will face all year long, is these Clemson Tigers. We'll see if they win. And if they win, then they deserve it. And if they don't, they're going to be in an argument and they're going to lose that argument. I'm just telling you right now, everybody believing that they're just going to get in because they made the

championship game, you cannot say that. The path to their championship game was drastically different than anybody else. Again, I'm just going to say these stats for one. more time because this is what the entire crux of this argument has to do with the path to the championship game. SMU played six of their eight league games against teams that were at or below 500 in ACCC play, which means two of their eight games were against teams that were above 500 in the conference. That's not good enough. That's just not good enough. Alabama is in, folks. I'm just here to tell you that right now. Alabama is in. I don't think that that's changing. I don't think that an SMU loss is going to bounce them, but obviously it's going to be a debate. That's why

Alabama fans, I'm sure, will still root for SMU and try to get in. So this is what the bracket is going to look like, at least based on what the rankings look like this week, but they will change. So this is not going to be a final bracket, but this is what the bracket looks like now. Oregon would get the one seed. They're favored in the big 10 game. Texas would get the two seat. They're favored in the SEC. SMU there at 3, Boise at 4, and then you get that 5 seed coveted. That would be Penn State

right now. Arizona State would be the 12, so that would be Arizona State at Penn State. In the 611 game, it would be Bama at Notre Dame, sign me up for that. In the 10-7 game, it would be Indiana at Georgia. That would be pretty good. And then how about

this one? Tennessee in the shoe against Ohio State. Oh, give me that one. Absolutely. I mean, those are going to be some great matchups. However, these are definitely going to change, which is why I just want to tease something for tomorrow's show. We are going to run down all the conference championship games, and we're going to pick winners in those conference championship games. But here's what's really fun. Based on those winners, we are actually going to re-rank and actually slot the playoffs the way that we project them on the Joel Clash show. that's coming up tomorrow on our picks and previews episode for these conference championship games. But the moral of this story is, folks, I really believe, like, Alabama is in the college football

playoff that was told to us on Tuesday night by the college football playoff committee. And you know what? They're not wrong. I thought I was going to be more angry about these rankings. And then I actually sat there. We actually went through these resumes. We actually started going through this argument of, of, best wins and strength of schedule and ranked wins and Alabama wins those arguments every single time.

They really do. So Tide, I think you're headed to the playoff. Hey, remember to follow us wherever you like to social media. We are there at Joel Clashow. You can rate and review us. Please do that wherever you listen to your podcast. Go ahead and subscribe on the YouTube channel, hit the notifications button, and leave a comment down below because that would be awesome. and we will be back with our picks, and we are still 61% on the year our picks against the spread. Conference championship game picks coming up tomorrow on Thursday right here at the Joel Clash show.