The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings Reaction: Is Notre Dame being protected? Do USC, Michigan & Texas have a path?

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the latest set of College Football Playoff Rankings. He begins by discussing the Notre Dame-Miami conundrum as the Irish come in at #9 while the team that beat them in Week 1, Miami, sits at #13. He explains how the Committee is protecting themselves from a difficult conversation with those two teams with their rankings. Klatt then looks at the paths for 3 blue bloods: #15 USC, #17 Texas & #18 Michigan and explains how viable each path is should they win their final games. How high would USC jump with a win at Oregon this weekend? Would a win over A&M be enough to launch Texas back into the Playoff picture and would a 5th straight win over #1 Ohio State send the Wolverines into the CFP? 0:00-2:02 Intro2:03-5:47 Klatt’s reaction to November 18th rankings5:48-11:31 What does the gap between Notre Dame and Miami mean for the Hurricanes’ at large chances?11:32-22:01 What are the CFP paths for USC, Texas and Michigan?22:02-24:31 Overall takeaways from CFP rankings Use my code for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/KLATT10Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discount. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There's never been a 9 and 3 team in the playoff. Do they want to set that precedent? Was it right to drop Alabama behind Notre Dame? USC against Oregon. This is a playoff game. Michigan would be coming off of six straight wins. They would have beaten the clear number one team in the country by the committee's standards. And you look up and you're like, that's the best win in the country.

Day like today is why we love college football. What's up everybody? Welcome into the program. This is the Joel Clashaw. This show is brought to you by Graduate by Hilton, and we thank them for their support. As always, we've got another rankings reaction show ready for you as we got some new rankings here on a Tuesday night. Gotta love college football. I just love that we can talk about it all the time.

And there's a lot of fan bases that are engaged at the top end here deep into November. That's been a huge plus in the last couple of years of the playoff, as we all know. And that's why I continue to be optimistic about where the sport is. So here we go. Remember, if you have not subscribed to the program over on YouTube, please go do that. That would help us out a lot. We would very much appreciate it. We've got some really cool products out there.

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Okay, let's get into some of these reactions here. Let's take a look at the top 25 as the committee gave it to us. And this committee kind of continues to have their fingerprint, which to me is i-test. This isn't I-test committee. This is not a resume committee. I think that you see that at the top. You see it in the middle.

You see it at the back end of these rankings. And these rankings reflect that I think a couple of the voices in that room are carrying a lot of weight, namely some of these former coaches. Mark D'Antonio, the former head coach at Michigan State. Mike Riley was a head coach at a number of different places. And those coaches have, you know, strong opinions, yes. and they're usually specific into areas of strength, the way a team is playing right now, so on and so forth.

So a couple of the questions that I was coming into seeing this rankings release with. I think namely, and a lot of us were feeling it, and even Greg McElroy talked about it before we saw them on the show, is what are they doing from like 7 to 10? And for me, it was more 8 to 10. I knew Oregon would be in there at number 7. and it was more 8 to 10. What were they going to do with Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama?

And the reason that that is important is because of Notre Dame's vulnerability on the bubble to teams that they lost to, namely Miami. And that's kind of where I wanted to start. So this is what they did is that they did give us Oklahoma at 8, Notre Dame at 9, and then Alabama at 10. After Alabama lost to OU and you knew that OU would kind of jump them. but then there was this question of the Alabama Notre Dame debate. And where were they going to put Notre Dame? And remember, because of the way that this playoff is built, you're not going to have just one through 12

because you're going to get a group of five team and you're going to get an ACC champion in. So if you look at the bracket, this is what it looks like. If you're watching on YouTube, it's up for you. You've got the four buys, as they gave them to us right now, the top four seeds in America, Ohio State 1, Indiana 2, Texas A&M 3, and Georgia 4. Then you've got Tech at 5. They would play the 12 seed 2 lane, who's obviously not in the top 12 in the country.

They're down there at number 24, but they would be the highest rated group of five teams, so they would be in there at 12. Okay, so then you've got the 611 game. That would be Ole Miss and Miami. But remember, Miami is there as a placeholder, not because of where they're ranked, but because they're the highest ranked ACC team at this point. But they are way behind the eight ball in the ACC as it relates to getting to the ACC championship game

and potentially winning that conference. So that spot is not Miami's. Miami would have to get to 10 because they're in all likelihood not going to win the ACC, which means that they have to be an at-large, which means that they've got to be inside the top 10. So when you see a bracket, it's so misleading. because you look at there and you're like, oh, yeah, well, Miami's in and they've had a good year.

It's only two losses. No, no, no. That's a placeholder at 11, that Ole Miss 6, Miami 11 game. Then you got the 710 game. It would be Alabama traveling up to Eugene to face Oregon. That would be incredible, by the way. And then the 9-8 game, OU, hosting Notre Dame. Okay, so that's how that bracket looks.

But again, it's deceiving because it looks like Miami is in, which makes you look at the bracket and not realize that the bubble line really comes down to, is Notre Dame on the bubble and is Miami being directly compared to them? That's really the biggest question that we've got so far. And right now, there's a buffer. They've built in a buffer between where Notre Dame is and where Miami is. So Miami is sitting at 13 in the rankings. And they've got between them and Notre Dame,

they've got Utah at 12, BYU at 11, and Alabama at 10. So my question would just be this. And listen, I did this as well. So I'm not saying they're wrong, but I'm just going to say, I'm just going to pose the question. Was it right to drop Alabama behind Notre Dame?

I think that that's a fair question. And if you're going by resume, what the committee did is the wrong answer. Because the resume for Alabama is much stronger than Notre Dame. They're both 8 and 2, yes, but the best win being in Athens against Georgia takes the cake and it should. The best win Notre Dame has is against USC. Nothing to scoff at. They're the 15th ranked team in the country, but remember that game happened in South Bend. And that's a USC team that up to that point had not shown that they could play very well on the road.

Now, they have since played better on the road and we'll see them on the road this week against Oregon more on that game in a little bit. But in a resume comparison, it's not a comparison. It's not a comparison, and Bama should have been number nine. But remember, they're going more eye test. And again, I told you that I think, this is speculation, that the coaches in the room are really carrying the day, and they would likely value a running game over a one-dimensional team that throws the football. And so stylistically, I think that they look at Notre Dame and they value them more than they value Alabama, and that's obvious they rank them ahead by one spot. So Bama's now at 10 and Notre Dame is 9, but conveniently, look at what that does to the bubble line.

It allows them to move Notre Dame away from the bubble line and away from a direct comparison with a team that beat them, Miami. Now, Miami still obviously had these other two buffers, Utah and BYU, but if you look at what's going on, like Miami at least has a little bit left on the schedule. They would have a pit team left on their schedule. They've got Virginia Tech left out in their schedule. A big win over pit. Would that be enough to closed the gap. I don't know. We'll see. Notre Dame just blew out pit by 22 on the road. But remember, Pat Narduzzi told us they focused more on ACC games. Oh, man, Pat Narduzzi. What are you doing? What are you talking about?

So Miami has this pit game and it's like, okay, is pit enough to jump them up to a spot where they could get in a direct comparison with Notre Dame? But here's the thing, is long as Alabama is between them and Notre Dame, then Miami will never get compared to Notre Dame because there's this buffer right there. So that's why it is so important for Notre Dame that Alabama stays behind them. Now, if Alabama were to beat Auburn, would that be enough to jump them up there? If Alabama were to go to the SEC championship game and have a 13th data point, would that be enough to jump them over Notre Dame? If B. Y. You runs the table and loses a close game to Texas Tech, and they're an 11 and 2 nonchamp.

Is that enough to jump into a spot ahead of Notre Dame and put Notre Dame on the bubble? These are all the things that Miami has to have if they want to get into a position where they're winning an argument for an at-large spot against really the only team that they would win an at-large spot against. And in that event, by the way, I will be arguing for Miami. I'm just telling you, like, head-to-head is going to matter. I think it will matter for the committee, but the committee is avoiding that conversation right now entirely by creating this buffer. And this buffer is important.

And as soon as Notre Dame loses that buffer, then, you know, we'll see what happens. So that's really the one area where I was like, what is going to happen? And I'll be honest, I don't agree with the committee. And I know most of you will say this, and I'll say it to myself, I know that I put Alabama behind Notre Dame as well.

But remember, I'm also way more eye test than I am resume. In a resume discussion and in a committee room, the resume should at times carry the day and the wins that Alabama have are far superior to the wins that Notre Dame has. Now, again, I did the same thing because I look at Notre Dame, and I'm like, I don't want to play that team. Meanwhile, I don't love Alabama's one-dimensional play,

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Okay, let me take you to another spot in this top 25 that I thought was interesting. And that is these, there's three teams down there in the teens that, you know, have this path, if you want to say it that way, or have an eye toward a path. And that is Michigan, Texas, and USC. You see, I think it's pretty safe to say that Utah, even at 12, has a bit of a ceiling. and they mentioned that in the show, and I agree with that. I think that Vanderbilt has a bit of a ceiling. I agree with that. You know, BYU does not, because they have the chance to play themselves into a big 12 title game

and then play themselves into the college football playoff, which would, by the way, take one of these spots away, which then would put Texas Tech into a conversation, and tech would win a lot of those arguments, so that would be a mess. And if you're Notre Dame or if you're Alabama or if you're Miami, me, if you're any of these teams, what you don't want to see is BYU continue to win and potentially win the Big 12. I think Vandy has a bit of a ceiling over them because of the ammunition behind them. When you look at SC at 15, when you look at Texas at 17, when you look

at Michigan at 18, those three teams have ammunition on their schedule. Okay? So when you have resume builders that are the caliber of USC at Oregon, Texas against Texas A&M, and Michigan against Ohio State, then you can start to talk yourself into the idea of these teams potentially winning those games and jumping themselves into the college football playoff. Now, what are the chances of all that? Let's talk about every one of those scenarios. Let's start with the 15th ranked team in the country, USC. The path for USC at 15, I actually think is quite open, quite open.

got choked up on that world. I don't know why. That was interesting. Quite open is what I was trying to say there. Because Oregon's at 7. USC is at 15. And on the road, they would value that in a big way. And so USC would jump way up into the rankings.

And here's the other part, is that you would be winning a game that's better than any singular win that Notre Dame has, even though you're not going to win an argument over Notre Dame because Notre Dame has the USC win. But you would be knocking Oregon at least down behind you. So now you can at least get yourself up to a place where you're 10. Because Oregon would have to get behind you. So Oregon would slip out of the seven spot.

Oklahoma would go to seven. Notre Dame would go to eight. Alabama would go to nine. USC would go to 10 and Oregon would go to 11. That's what would happen in the event. USC goes up and wins in Eugene this weekend. That is massive. I really, that would absolutely happen.

They would jump Vanderbilt. They would jump Miami. They would jump Utah. They would jump BYU. There's no doubt in my mind. So for all intensive purposes, this is a playoff game. This weekend, USC in Austin Stadium against Oregon. And Oregon would then need some help if they were to lose this game.

They would. They would. Now, right or wrong, would they win an argument against Notre Dame? Maybe. And should they? Probably. But if you were to look at two home losses, Indiana and USC, it would not look great for Oregon. It just wouldn't. And USC, conversely, you could talk yourself into them being in that 10 spot all day long, which would, by the way, move Notre Dame further away from Miami and that direct comparison on the bubble line. So that's the path for you. USC, and I think it's the cleanest of those three that I was talking about. So then you go to the next two. Let's go to Texas at 17. And you just start to play this out in your mind. And you start to play out the fact that Texas is sitting there and they fall seven spots from 10 to 17. Do they have a path? Or are they done? And I would just say this. I think they're more done than they have a path. They play Arkansas. A team is 2 and 8. That's not going to help their resume. all, but then they play A&M. And obviously that would. Now, A&M's not number one in the country, but they are number three in the country. And right now, number 10, Alabama is the last team

receiving in that large spot. So that's a lot of ground to make up if you're Texas, because then you start to get into the direct comparison about, you know, what happened, Texas at Georgia versus Bama at Georgia. And you start looking at their resume. Is Oklahoma also on the bubble. There's just a lot more hair on this scenario. They would be nine and three. There's never been a nine and three team in the playoff. Do they want to set that precedent with this team? I don't know if you want to do that based on some of these losses that they just had, in particular last week in that drubbing from Georgia in particular in the fourth quarter. Their best one is Oklahoma. That's a neutral site. Their other best one is Vandy. Okay. Vandy is sitting there with a ceiling.

on their head right now. You know, I'm looking at this and you have to consider that, yes, they have the three losses. They also have two really suspect wins over time versus two of the worst teams in the SEC. You look up and that's not a great resume, folks. It's just not. And maybe I test would help you out. Although, if you're a coach and you're looking at that, what have I told you here on this program? That team has yet to play a four-quarter game.

we haven't even seen them play well. So if this committee values the I test, I don't think Texas gets in on the I test. If the committee somehow turns a new page and they start saying, you know what, we're not going to deal with this, we're just going to go on resume. They're going to lose the resume battle as well.

So for me, the Texas path is much more dicey than in particular the other network wants to allude to. I just don't see it. for them, even with a win over A&M. Okay, so now you get to Michigan. Michigan, do they have a path, or is this, you know, a fool's errand for Michigan? So Michigan, if they were to potentially win in a game against Ohio State, they would be not nine and three, but ten and two.

I think that's an important distinction because it would throw them into this conversation that you've got there with a potential 10 and 2, Notre Dame, a potential 10 and 2, let's see, maybe 10 and 3, Alabama, depending on if they get to the SEC championship game and lose, what if they win, so on and so forth. Does Oregon beat USC? We start getting into that conversation. So Oklahoma playing well is helping Michigan until they get into a direct comparison,

but then here's the deal. if for some reason Michigan does beat Ohio State and their 10 and 2, then you can start to look at their resume and their eye test a lot differently than you would, Texas. Because Michigan would be coming off of six straight wins. They would have beaten the clear number one team in the country by the committee standards. And you look up and you're like, that's the. the best win in the country. And they would absolutely be on the bubble line.

You see, I don't even know if you can get Texas to the bubble line, even with a win over Texas A&M. Maybe you can. Certainly they would pass Vandy and who knows. But in the event Michigan wins, they win an argument over a 10 and 2 Miami. They win an argument over a 10 and 2 Notre Dame. You know, at this point, they've got a game. And I've made the argument in the past that the committee and people in college football have been talking for a long time about, and specifically this year, about this idea that they don't want to penalize teams for scheduling hard non-conference games. So I firmly believe that

they would view Michigan more as like a 10-and-a-half, one-and-a-half team rather than a 10-and-2 team, which is kind of what they're doing for Texas because one of their losses is on the road at Ohio State. So if you're going to do that, then you'd have to apply the same logic to Michigan who went to Oklahoma and lost what was, you know, a good football game to John Mateer, who was playing his best ball. The Oklahoma offense was playing their best football early in the season before the Mateer injury. You know, would they get in? I think it's a clearer path than Texas. In my estimation, because Oklahoma's clearly in, you know, you start getting into a direct resume comparison with Notre Dame, I think Michigan will win that.

If they were to beat Ohio State, they would have the singular best win in the country, period. Period. Coming off of six wins. There's something to be said for that. So it's pretty clear what USC's path is. It's pretty clear what Michigan's path is, and I do think that those are both open. Meanwhile, the Texas one murkier, murkier. Is this the team that we really want to say, like, 9 and 3 gets in?

I don't know if this is the team that I want to put that, you know, pound the table for this team. Do you leave a comment below? Is this the Texas team? Is this team? Is this resume? Is this group the team that you really want to pound the table for and set a new precedent to allow them into the playoff at 9 and 3? Even with a Texas A&M win? I would love your comment down below.

because right now, I don't see it, not with the way that this committee has valued and evaluated teams. You know, they use the eye test. Texas is not passing the eye test. They're just not. Now, if they were to blow out Texas A&M, that might be something a little bit different, even though Texas A&M did not play great in the first half last week. So, you know, things that we can at least ponder as we move ourselves forward in these rankings. I thought that the two-lane ranking was interesting, obviously, from a group of five perspective all the way up there at 24. Arizona State sneaking in there. That's interesting. Missouri is back in the mix. Illinois is back in the mix. I mean, Bama's resume is so good. Goodness gracious.

Like, I know I had them behind Notre Dame, and now I'm questioning everything about my rankings from last Monday. Eight and two. Big wins. Georgia, Vandy, Tennessee. I mean, that team probably should have been ranked against a head of Notre Dame. They're protecting Notre Dame for some reason. They're creating a buffer. They do not want to compare Miami and Notre Dame because they know what the answer is. They're avoiding it like the plague.

It's not unlike, you know, all of us in our own lives. We do things like this all the time. You know, when I know a shirt doesn't look good, I'm like, I don't want to ask my wife. if this, hey, honey, does this look good? I'm like, I don't want to do that. Because she's going to be like, no, the shirt looks stupid. Take it off. And it's like, but I like the shirt.

So I want to wear it. So guess what I don't ask? I don't ask if she likes it. So the committee right now, they know the answer to the question who gets in Notre Dame or Miami if it's a direct comparison. So right now they're like, you know what? I know it's a dumb shirt. And so guess what?

I'm not going to ask. I'm not going to ask the question. And they don't ask the question by manipulating the standings. Boom. Buffer, don't have to do it. Look at that. Clean their hands of it. And here we go.

College football is the best. I'm back tomorrow with picks and previews. By the way, just throwing this out there. We've been better the last couple of weeks. Just going to say that. As we've gotten more information, picks have gotten better. Inching our way towards 500.

Picks and previews up tomorrow. So subscribe to the channel. Please do that. Go check out Understanding Football. I think you're really going to love it. Invite a friend into the show because that would be awesome. Find us on social media if you like. And wherever you like to social media at Joel Klas Show, we're there.

Can't wait for this weekend's games. I will pick and preview those games tomorrow right here. We'll see you then.