The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings Reaction: Who actually controls their own destiny for the CFP?

Episode Date: November 12, 2025

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the CFP Committee’s latest rankings. He gives his thoughts on the Committee’s decision to keep Indiana at #2 over Texas A&M after the Hoosiers’ dramatic win at Penn State. He also explains why Texas Tech jumping up to #6 puts them in a great position to grab a First Round bye. Klatt looks at the pathway for a 4th Big Ten team as USC comes in at #17 and Michigan at #18 with 3 games left. He then looks at the entire Top 25 and breaks down which teams actually control their own destiny to get to the Playoff – like Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama - and which still need some help or they will be sweating on Selection Sunday.  0:00-2:27 Intro2:28-5:30 Biggest takeaways from CFP rankings5:31-8:02 Texas Tech moves up two spots after win over BYU8:03-9:50 Can the SEC lock up playoff spots?9:51-11:46 What are paths like for a fourth Big Ten team?11:47-15:54 Teams that control their own destiny15:55-21:28 Teams that have a good chance of getting into the CFP21:28-25:32 Who would make the CFP between Miami and Notre Dame? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Who actually controls their own fate, their path, to the college football playoff, a win over Ohio State. They would almost certainly, you know, be included. If it comes down to a discussion between Miami and Notre Dame, Miami should go to the playoff. You have to honor a direct head-to-head matchup. What's the day is why we love college football. Hey, what's up, everybody? Welcome into the Joel Clatt show.

I'm Joel Clatt. This show, as always, is brought to you by graduate. by Hilton, we thank them for their support as we barrel on in through November, another rankings reaction show at hand. I love these things. I really do. And I got to tell you, like, we're starting to really understand how this particular committee likes to view and rank their teams.

And it's pretty obvious. And I'll get into that in just a moment. But before we get into the rankings, as they were given to us by the committee on Tuesday night, I do want to remind everyone, please subscribe to the YouTube channel, because that would be awesome. and we've got some very cool YouTube-specific content on the channel. You can also follow us on social media at Joel Clashio, wherever you like to social media.

We're out there. But some of that YouTube-specific content is fire. I'm telling you, it's awesome. We have a series called Understanding Football. There are four videos posted under this series. You just go to the YouTube page. You can scroll down. You can see that entire series right there.

We have four episodes up. We have a brand-new episode of the Understanding Football Series, and it just dropped on Tuesday. It is up on the channel, and it is on the RPO, the run-pass option. Everybody talks about it. All the announcers say run-pass option, but what is it? Why do you use it? What does it look like?

All of those answers are there for you on the YouTube page of the Joel Clash show. Again, understanding football. And when you're there, you've got the other videos. I've got passing game concepts, both short and deep video on each of those. defensive pass coverage. I've got a video on that. You can understand a lot of things about football and we'll have more of that coming at you

through that series understanding football. I'm really proud of it. Our team has done an excellent job with all of the editing and the resources on that series. So please go check it out. Okay, now let's get into the rankings as we got them on Tuesday night. So not a ton of change, as we saw.

And I will just say, we look up and I immediately like Ohio State wasn't going anywhere. So that's like their number one. I think that's pretty clear. And I think all of us understand that. But there was a question about the number two team in the country because of A&M's convincing victory over Missouri

and Indiana kind of escaping even though it was an incredible scene at Penn State. Gustini and I were there. That catch by Omar Cooper was outstanding. Some of the social media reaction, by the way. There's a couple of guys that, like, mimicked Gus and I's call. More Gus's call, but like Gus and I. It was hilarious on Instagram.

I'll find the guys. I'm going to try to repost it. It was, anyways, I digress. Indiana stays at number two. So the committee keeps Indiana at number two. And listen, as I told you in my rankings, that was a coin flip. And based on what they even said in that interview with Reese Davis, I think it was close for them as well.

I didn't think that there was a clear-cut winner in that conversation. Indiana's 10-0, A&M's 9-0, the best wins. Obviously, A&M has the Missouri win. They've got the Notre Dame win. But Indiana's got some great wins as well. On the road, each of them, Oregon and Iowa. And the FPI, Indiana is second. Texas A&M is seventh.

Their strength of schedule, Indiana's 33rd, A&M's 15th. So, like, there are things in each team's category that would lead you to believe that, like, okay, they're going to win the day, if you will, to take an old Oregon Chip Kelly comment. I didn't have a problem with this. I would love to know what you thought, though. So if you're not on YouTube, go to YouTube and get down into the comments below because what I would be interested in is hearing from you, do you think that the committee got it right in this specific ranking, Indiana over Texas A&M? And if you did not think that they got it right, you know, just say why. And I'd love to get down there into the comments and I'll try to do so

over the next couple of days, and we can kind of hash it up. I happen to believe that this was right. This is how I had them in my rankings. Razor thin margin, razor thin. I do think you have to honor some of these road victories. Those big wins don't even include the Penn State win, which I think is a really good quality win. Meanwhile, the Missouri win can be diminished because of the injury to the quarterback,

but you could argue the same thing for Penn State, even though I would make a strong argument that Missouri is in a worse place at quarterback than Penn State is currently with the way that Ethan Gruncomeyer played in the second half for Penn State and his third start. So, but that's that. Again, please go down to the comments on YouTube. Did the committee get it right, Indiana over A&M? Yes, no, and why. So get in there.

Okay, a couple of other takeaways from this committee's top 25. And to me, I immediately looked at Texas Tech at six. And I thought to myself, okay, this committee really values Texas Tech. as a lot of us do and as they should. So the first thing that stood out to me is, all right, this team has a path to a buy. It's not just that the value is there, that they're getting from the committee. They've got the wins, Utah and BYU. Their strength of schedules, okay, it's 48th.

The remaining strength of schedule is not great. It's 61st in the country. So you would at least assume that they would definitely get to the big 12 championship game. And then they would have a matchup against, you know, who knows, BYU again, maybe it's Cincinnati. And so, like, if they went out, I really believe that as a 12 and 1 with what could happen above them, they could be in line for a buy in a top four seed. Because if you look at what's going on above them, you're definitely going to get a loss from either Ohio State or Indiana.

Because they both can't win out and win their conference, they would have to play each other. same type of issue with right now Texas A&M and Alabama or Georgia if they were to get to the SEC championship game. So basically, of those teams ahead of Texas Tech, of those five teams, there's a guarantee that two of them will lose a football game this season, maybe in the conference championship game, but there's a guarantee that a minimum two of those teams are going to lose and not be conference champions.

And then there is a third because one of them is an SEC that also wouldn't be a champ. So there can only be two champs, ahead of them, and there's a guarantee that two teams are going to lose. If you look at that and you're at six, it's like, yeah, there's a clear path to number four. Now, we'll see how highly these non-champs are going to be valued. But if you look at the bracket right now, tech is sitting at six. There's a clear path for them to get all the way into a buy position and into the quarterfinals. And again, and I said this on Monday, this team is good enough to win a playoff game.

No doubt about it. The committee touched on Mack Rhodes, the AD of Baylor, has to go out there and give that kind of awkward, painful interview with Reese Davis. He touched on their defense. I agree with him. That's one of the best front sevens in all of college football. They can rush the passer. They can stop the run.

Those are fundamental and foundational things that you have to do to win big games. And they do them. So Texas Tech, that was a big, I almost lost my pen. That was a big point for me when I saw these rankings. I thought to myself, up there to potentially get a buy. I think the committee values them and rightly so. Next big takeaway for me is that I'm looking at this weekend's schedule,

which is a pretty decent schedule as opposed to what we've had. But you've got these four SEC teams inside of the top seven. So you've got A&M, Alabama, Georgia, at three, four, and five. And then you've got Ole Miss at seven. And every one of those teams, all four of them, host games this weekend. So you're looking at A&M hosting South Carolina. you've got Bama obviously hosting OU, Georgia hosting Texas. Those are monster games with Texas and OU sitting at 10 and 11 respectively.

You've got O'Niss hosting Florida. And it kind of jumped out to me with where those other two teams are, OU and Texas. Like if you get home wins at all four of those locations, I think you're basically in at that point. I think that they're just solidly in the playoff, no questions asked. A&M, Bama, Georgia, and Ole Miss, playing for basically the right to go to the playoff this weekend in home games. Ole Miss has got to handle Florida. Obviously, they were unable to do that a year ago in the swamp.

Remember that? And because of that, you know, Ole Miss did not get into the college football playoff. There is some question about like, well, where's Lane Kiffin going to coach? Is it going to be Florida? So this becomes kind of the Lane Kiffin Bowl. Is he going to be meeting with the Florida brass the night before the game? I mean, who knows? Who knows? How distracted is Ole Miss? I don't know.

But if they win the game, I do like, not only like their chances, I think they're almost guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Georgia, same thing. Bama is same thing with wins over OU and Texas if they get those. And then A&M can basically solidify their position up there at the top of the conference with a win over South Carolina. So that stood out to me. Like, you could get these teams that are like, yeah, they're definitely in those four teams hosting games now inside of the top seven.

Then it started getting me thinking and you start to look at the rankings. and you're like, okay, you've got Oregon in there, and they bumped Oregon up after that wild and impressive win on the road over Iowa, which, by the way, did not fall much. They're sitting there at 21. So the committee did not penalize Iowa for losing that incredible game at home to Oregon. But you've got Oregon there. They're the third Big Ten team in the top ten.

Ohio State at one, Indiana, two, Oregon sitting there at eight. And then you've got the next Big Ten team sitting at 17 and 18. You've got SC and Michigan. Okay, now, you know what the path is for a four SEC team and maybe even more, depending on how Texas and OU do. Okay, so you can see the path for the multiple fourth, maybe fifth team of the SEC getting into the college football playoff. But then you ask yourself like, okay, what's the path for the fourth Big Ten team to get into the college football playoff? And in this scenario, you're looking at SC and you're looking at Michigan and you think to yourself like, okay, they've got a lot on their schedule. they've got bullets in the chamber in order to, if they were to win out, be in a position where their resume would look really good.

Obviously, Michigan plays Ohio State. That's the number one team in the country. You know, like a win over Ohio State would almost assuredly on the back of a nice win streak, they would be one of the hottest teams in the country. They would beat Ohio State in that scenario. They would almost certainly, you know, be included. Meanwhile, SC is sitting there. Again, a lot left on the schedule. Iowa still ranked number 21. They've got that game this week. They still have to go to Oregon.

If they were to get a win at Oregon, that would be a massive win. And so I just started thinking to myself, okay, the path for them to get there. Is it clean? Is it clear? If they went out, are they definitely in? And then it just got me thinking even more so about the entirety of the top 25. And so let's play a little game. Let's play a little game.

All of a sudden, you see where I'd say, did that. Thank you, YouTube commenters. All of a sudden, I did it. Thank you. Thank you. It's not the sudden. It's a sudden. Or you could just say, and this probably sounds smarter, suddenly, there we are. Boom. Learning every day, 43. Didn't have a great education, is what it is. It got me thinking about who actually controls their own fate, their path, to the college football playoff because I think it's more teams than you would think. And then there are some teams that everyone is just assuming, yeah, they control their own path. And it's like, is that the case? Well, we don't know for sure. So let's play a little game. Let's going to say teams that control their

own destiny, 100% in, they control that fate. Then we've got teams with like a 90, 95% chance if they were to win out that they would be in the college football playoff. And then we've got some teams that I just like, I can't even give a 90%. It's just like, I'm not sure. even if they were to win out from the position that they're out at right now, we're not sure if they would get into the college football playoff if they won out. So I think you understand that. I really think I was too excited about all of a sudden and suddenly that I hope I described that properly.

Let's take a quick drink of tea, cinnamon tea. It's clutch. This time of year, my voice always goes. All right, let's start with teams that we believe control their own fate. If you're watching on YouTube, which I hope that you are, look at the top 12. So of the top 12 teams, every one of them controls their own fate to go to the college football playoff, without a doubt. Because either matchup like BYU, you can say, well, yes, if they control their own fate, they would win out, they would win the Big 12, they would go to the college football playoff. Texas would have wins over Georgia and Texas A&M.

They're sitting in 10th right now. They would absolutely go to the playoff. you, big one against Alabama, they would certainly be in a position where they would probably go to the college football playoffs. So the top 12, pretty confidently you can sit there and you can say, yes, they win the rest of their football games. They're definitely into the college football playoff. Now, there's another one at the end of this rankings that you can also say that about, and that's number 25 Cincinnati. Cincinnati controls their own fate to get to the Big 12 championship game. Thus, if they were to win that, would get the automatic birth out of the Big 12, and

lo and behold, they would find themselves into the college football playoffs. So the top 12 and Cincinnati, definitely in. Now, you might be thinking to yourself like, well, Joel, there's teams in there that would certainly control their own fate in the ACC or even in the group of six with South Florida at 24 or Georgia Tech at 16 and so on and so forth. And here's the problem with that. We actually don't know in any of those cases, because we don't know what the tiebreaker would ultimately land on. So I can't confidently say, nor anybody can, who actually controls their fate in those conferences,

the American conference or in the ACC, because we don't know which teams are going to be tied. We don't know which tiebreakers will be used, and more specifically, they'll be going towards conference, opponents, records. Well, those games still need to be played. So we have no idea who's even in line for a team. tie break now. That's what's wild to me about the ACC and the American conference is you can't even look at a team and be like, don't worry, you got this, you went out, you're in. You can't say

that, which is wild. So now they get thrown into that kind of 90, 95 percent, not sure if they would get in. So let's get to that category because that's it. So the teams that we know control their own fate, 100 percent, the top 12, yes, absolutely, and number 25. Cincinnati. You can't even say that about South Florida because of the American Conference is just wild in terms of what could actually happen in terms of matchup in the championship game. Okay, now let's get to 99, 95% chance. Like, we are very confident that these teams with a winout would go. Let's start with number 16, Georgia Tech. They would be 11 and 1, and they would have just beat Georgia. So even in a scenario that they don't go to the

ACC championship game, there's a really good chance with a win over Georgia that they would be considered, I mean, right up there as a bubble team, again, 90, 95% chance. They may not be in the ACC championship game, but even as an 11 and 1 coming off a win over Georgia, if they were to win all their games, I think they would go. I think they would go. It's hard to see a scenario where they wouldn't as an 11 and 1. so that's why we leave it in the 90-95% category. Next team that I think is a 90-95% would be SC,

and it's for the reasons that I already mentioned when talking about the rest of their schedule. The rest of their schedule affords them an opportunity to have marquee, massive, ranked wins right up there on their resume. They have Iowa this week. They still have to travel to Oregon, and they would be in a position where, like, 90-95 percent,

I'm like, yes, they're probably in in that scenario. I'm going to say the same thing about Michigan at 18. They'd be on a six-game win streak, and they would have just beaten the number one team of the country, Ohio State. You can't keep that team out of the playoff. If you're trying to find the 12 best teams, and there are at-large spots,

in that scenario, you would have to include Michigan. Two years removed from a national championship, having just beaten the number one team in the country on a six-game winning streak, No, that team's not getting left out at 10 and 2. That's crazy. Michigan absolutely, maybe even more than 95%. This is a team that 99% controls their own fate.

If they went out with Ohio State left on their schedule, Michigan's going to the playoff and rightly so and should. That's not even an argument. So, like, that one's a clear one. Number 22 Pitt is also interesting. I think they're 90, 95% in if they went out. Now, they don't have any quality wins right now, but look at the rest of their schedule. Okay, folks, they've got Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami to finish.

You win those three, again, not guaranteed that they would play for an ACC championship, but even at that point, they would be in line for a discussion to be in that large team. Those would be massive wins. You'd be knocking Notre Dame out of there who was above you. You'd be knocking Miami out of the way who's above you. Those would be massive wins. Georgia Tech out, which would be above you. So you're just knocking down bowling pins and in line, 90, 95% chance Pitt would go if they were to win out. Then you get to the rest of the teams in the

top 25 that I have not mentioned yet, and rightly so, because I really don't know. I don't know if there's a path, even if they win all their football games. Let me start with the team that I left out right away, which was Utah at 13. There's not enough. There's not enough. I think 13 is their ceiling right now. Even if BYU were to lose another game, they would only have two losses. Like, let's say BYU goes to the conference championship game, beats Cincinnati, and then loses to tech again. Well, they still have more wins than Utah because they would be at that point a one loss regular season than two loss because of the conference championship game. They would be an 11 and 2. Utah would be 10 and 2 with a head-to-head win. There's a ceiling there. I just don't, I don't

see the path for Utah unless everybody just starts losing multiple games. You know, if you get Texas losing multiple games and OU losing multiple games and BYU losing multiple games and Vandy getting knocked off and, and Miami loses to Pitt, but Georgia Tech beats Pitt, but Georgia beats Georgia Beach Georgia Tech and Oregon beats SC and Ohio State beats Michigan. You know, like all of that has to happen now. So could that happen? Maybe, but I'm just not sure. So that's Utah sitting at 13. even if they went out, I don't know. 14 Vandy, same situation. No wins against current top 25 teams.

Their good wins are right now against LSU, South Carolina, and Missouri. They're all outside of the top 25. They're not going to be winning many resume battles. And let's be candid about the game against Texas. They got handled against Texas. Now, those that want to say like, oh, look at the scoreboard, all right, that's fine. And Pavia went off. No, he didn't.

He had garbage time numbers. It's like a home run. It's like a two-run, home run down eight four. Who cares? There are so many guys in the big leagues that have just garbage numbers. They don't have meaningful numbers. And Pavia's numbers against Texas were garbage numbers. Sorry, it's the truth.

I don't know what to tell you. Like, is what it is. Good football team. I don't think they're winning arguments with those teams above them. So like Utah, they need a lot of chaos. Texas to lose a couple of times. O you to lose a couple of times. Miami to lose. Maybe Utah to lose.

They need a lot to go in their favor, which basically means if they went out, what they don't want to be in is a direct comparison with Texas. Even Texas at 9 and 3 is going to win an argument over a 10 and 2 Vanderbilt team. So that's an interesting one. Miami. Let's get to Miami. And there was a lot of discussion about Miami

on the rankings release. They'd be right on the bubble. If they were to win out, good chance they don't go to the ACC championship game, even though there's a path for that, although it's wonky. It should tell you everything you need to know about the ACC that Miami right now is sitting in like,

I think it's six or seventh position in the ACC, and yet they're the highest ranked team out of the ACC, kind of wild in that respect. But if they were to win out, they'd be right on the bubble. These are the standings in the ACC, you're seeing them on YouTube. Georgia Tech is up there at number one. Virginia is number two, pits three.

SMU is four, Duke gross. They just lost a Yukon. They're five. And Louisville is six. Louisville just lost a cow. You know, gosh. Like, not great. It's not great.

So then Miami, let's see what, what, if Miami wins out, everybody then would just be sitting there thinking to yourself, who's the argument with? Is the argument with Notre Dame. And in that scenario, it gets interesting.

And I am one, and I will continue to be this. And I vow to you, our listeners, that I will do this if this is the case. If it comes down to a discussion and a debate between Miami and Notre Dame,

Miami should go to the playoff. I do not care what they have looked like you have to honor a direct head-to-head matchup or else what are we doing? What are we doing? You have to honor BYU's win over Utah. You know, that being said, I know there's going to be a lot of people that are like, well, you have Georgia over Alabama in your rankings.

Yeah, but I'm not the committee. And I don't have to decide on a last playoff spot. If we're talking about a last playoff spot where you're getting in or being left at home, and those two teams played, you have to honor the direct comparison game that was played. You just have to. So, Miami, what do we do with Miami? Miami's got a hope that Texas falls off. They've got a hope that Vandy gets beat by Tennessee.

They've got to hope that they don't stumble because they've got to go to pit and play a cold weather road game in November. So there's no guarantee that they're even going to be in that position. But if they can get to a position where they're in direct comparison with Notre Dame, I even will pound the table for Miami. And rightly so, like I said, I know I had Georgia over Alabama in my rankings this week. I'm trying not to be too hypocritical, but that is just like a ranking. I think one team right now is more flawed than another. Do I love that I ranked them that way?

No. But it's different than inclusion into the playoff or being left home. home. That is a far different conversation and one that you would have to honor the head to head, at least in my estimation. All right, that's going to do it for us today. Hope you enjoyed the program. We'll be back tomorrow with picks and previews. By the way, we were 4 and 0 last week. If you actually watched the show last year, you'll know that November and December and through the playoffs was actually when we got on our best run making picks. Probably just jinxed myself for this week, but we were 4 and 0 last

week. We'll be making more picks tomorrow on the program. And make sure, please, to get over to YouTube. If you like football, you like schematics, and you want to learn more about football, we've got the series for you, Understanding Football with the Joel Klad Show. I've got a brand new episode up about the RPO, the run pass option. Go check that out. Subscribe to the show. You can follow us on social media at Joel Klats Show. And again, we'll be back tomorrow with all of our picks and previews. Have a great night, everybody.